The Divisional Disappointed

This is going to be a painful section to write as I have a huge amount of affection for Mike Zimmer and what he did for the Bengals, but I’m beginning to think that the Vikings have a Marvin Lewis type problem. Now some might draw the comparison between Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton, but my worry is that Zimmer is clearly a good coach and taken the Vikings to the playoffs three times in his six years in charge. However, I’m not sure if he’s going to win the big one, and for me the problem is that he is too old fashioned in how he wants the offence to run, quite literally running the ball too much into a 49ers defence that was stuffing them. Now the pass rush of the 49ers played a huge part in thee Vikings’ offensive woes, but Cousins is now going to have his third play caller going into his third and final year with the Vikings. We shall have to see how next year’s team are assembled, but the defence is not getting any younger and when you have one of the best receiver pairings in the game should you be as reliant on the run game as Zimmer wants? I await Dan’s Dad verdict on this theory and would love to be proved wrong next season, but I have my concerns that the window for this current version of the team is closing.

The Baltimore Ravens had such a successful year and so the ending of it has to be particularly hard to cope with. Clearly they need to work out a plan B on offence, but this is not proof that you can’t win with Lamar Jackson who did things no quarterback has done before and is only twenty-two. Given the franchise stability you expect the Ravens to improve again in the offseason and they would be my favourites to win the AFC North next season and likely for several years to come. The questions about Jackson in the playoffs will remain until he gets a win, but it wouldn’t surprise me if next year the Ravens get that win and go deep into the playoffs.

The Houston Texans are a funny team to evaluate because this is the fourth time in his six years as head coach that Bill O’Brien has won the AFC South, and yet he has never totally convinced. This is the second year in a row that quarterback Deshaun Watson has got his team into the playoffs and he did all he could in this game, but there simply wasn’t enough around him to compete with the Chief’s offensive explosion of points. The truly worrying thing is that O’Brien is defending the trades he made and is keeping control, yet the all in moves got them one playoff win and a horrible loss. For all of Watson’s heroics, this does not look like a team capable of winning a Super Bowl and the Texans are now missing the draft picks they traded away to augment the roster in the offseason. They may well get away with it again next year if the Colts can’t find an improvement at quarterback, but Chris Ballard has been doing great work in Indianapolis and I wonder if the Texans fall back next season.

It could perhaps be argued that the Seattle Seahawks have if anything overachieved this season as they continue their rebuild, but with Russell Wilson they always have a chance. If anything that makes their continued insistence on over emphasising the run even more infuriating. In DK Metcalf they have a fearsome rookie receiver who combined with Tyler Lockett helped Wilson excel and yet in the biggest game of the year they managed a three runs then punt drive and gave Marshawn Lynch twelve carries two weeks after he came out of retirement that yielded only twenty-six yards. It’s one thing to use him short yardage as he scored touchdowns but with the injuries at running back not maximising Wilsons prime seems a flawed plan. I have a lot respect for Pete Carrol but I am beginning to wonder whether whilst I think floor for the Seahawks is always going to be high with him as coach, I’m not sure if they are going to reach their full potential with a quarterback as gifted as Wilson if they don’t build the offence round him. I’m sure that the Seahawks will be competitive next season, but I don’t know if they will be pushing for the Super Bowl.

What We’ve Been Asked

‘And then there were 4.

I wasn’t surprised that the Viking’s luck finally ran out as the 49ers season has been a good one and they have clearly earned their home field advantage. It was by no means a rout, but any defeat hurts especially when the Packers are still in the hunt. That was resolved by the meeting on Sunday of the Packers and Seahawks at Lambeau Field. A close affair, this went the way of the home team but only by 5. This brings the two 13-3 teams head to head in San Fran next weekend. My pick would be the 49ers but as a Viking I’m conditioned to support the Vikes and anyone playing the Packers. I think it will be close though.

In the AFC the Titans played up to their name to take down the 14-2 Ravens in the only road win of the weekend, and by a decent margin of 16 too. The final game of the weekend saw the Chiefs win a high scoring match-up racking up 51 points and I think they will fare well against the Titans whose luck has to run out sometime.

OK, now for the trivia and I know that I may have caused some frustrations in the ranks. Despite claiming to have no idea they both managed to come up with some answers nearing the truth. So here we go.

Q1. In a game against the Washington Redskins on October 13, 2000, Michael Lewis became only the 7th player in NFL history and the first Saint to do what?

Well he didn’t return two Punts in a game Dan, but he did return a punt and a kick-off for a TD in the same game. Gee also went for 2 kick returns so I feel I have to award them both the points for that, but I will take a note of Gee’s thoughts to bone up on rule changes for next season.

Q2. In a game against the Washington Redskins on October 30, 1955, Jim Patton was the first player to achieve what?

I think that Dan must have a camera in my flat as he managed to sniff out my being in one of my devious phases. Gee’s answer about a 50 yd field goal was good but didn’t quite bring home the points. Again we aren’t talking two punt returns but it is another case of a return a punt and a kick-off for a TD in the same game – Sorry it was too tempting when I found these two facts for two adjacent teams so once again despite having no clue they both delivered…

Q3. This should have been the easier one of this week’s questions and asked: From 1960 – 62 the NY Jets were known as what?

Well, Metros and Cities were believable offerings but the actual answer is the New York Titans.

So this week Dan and Gee score 4 and 2 points respectively bringing the total to 30-26 in Dan’s favour.

Now we reach the exciting Championship Week where the real questions get asked on the field but for those of us without helmets here’s the trivia.

We start at Oakland and the question is:
Q1. Who did the Oakland Raiders play when they made it to Super Bowl II?

Moving on we get to Philadelphia and I want to know:
Q2. Which Eagle quarterback threw for 464 yards in one game setting a team record?

Finally this week we arrive in Pitsburgh. So tell me:
Q3. In the Steelers’ first Super Bowl appearance, who did they defeat?

Well after this we just have the Pro-Bowl and Super Bowl to go, a sure sign we are at the business end of the year.

Happy Triving’

Sunday’s Divisional Games

12 Sunday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, DK Metcalf, Doug Baldwin, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, JJ Watt, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Trivia, Patrick Mahomes, Playoffs, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Washington, Will Fuller

We have two more games today, but first I have to fail at the trivia questions, although Dan might fare better.

Dan’s Dad asked us:

‘For New Orleans I want to know this: In a game against the Washington Redskins on October 13, 2000, Michael Lewis became only the 7th player in NFL history and the first Saint to do what?

Now it’s the New York Giants so tell me In a game against the Washington Redskins on October 30, 1955, Jim Patton was the first player to achieve what?

Finally for the NY Jets – From 1960 – 62 the NY Jets were known as what?’

I am properly stuck on these questions, apparently Dan and I need to spend some time in the off-season memorising franchise histories, and I have no idea about some of the early history. I’m guessing that the first two are likely related to rule changes or things that happen rarely. Even safeties happen with fair amount of regularity, as do penalties so my thoughts turn to the kicking or returns, but it could just easily be something else.

I’m sure the forward pass happened earlier than 1955, but I’m really struggling with both questions so let’s say that Michael Lewis was the first Saint to have more than one kick return go for a touchdown in a season. As for Jim Patton, I don’t know the name so let’s go with the first player to kick a fifty yard field goal.

As for the Jets, they went to one of the early Super Bowls the Jets with Joe Nameth so this has to be a seriously obscure fact, going with the New York Metros, even though I’m sure the baseball team is likely older.

Now over to Dan:

‘I’m concerned this week as there’s only a couple of points in it and I know absolutely none of these questions this week so they’re all guesses. One correct answer from Gee and I fear he’s right back in it!

So for the Saints I’ll say he was the first Saint to return two punts for touchdowns in one game.

For the Giants I’ll assume some deviousness and also say he was also the first player to return two punts for touchdowns.

And finally for the Jets, I’ll guess they were previously known as the New York Cities.

Oh well… hopefully there’ll be something I can answer next week!’

Houston Texans (4^th) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2^nd)

The Chiefs got a bye week and the second seed thanks to the Patriots loss to the Dolphins in week seventeen, but they also finished the season with six straight wins as quarterback Patrick Mahomes adjusted to playing with the sore knee he had after dislocating his knee cap. It would not be surprising that the offence would take a step back from last season even before Mahomes had an injury, but this is still a frightening unit capable of big plays and ranked third in the league by DVOA. However, after a rough start to the season the Chiefs defence has improved and whilst it is sill a relatively average unit ranked fourteenth by DVOA, when combined with such a productive offence then it is easy to see why the Chiefs won twelve games.

The Texans pretty much won last week on the back of Deshaun Watson’s ability to perform outside of the structure of the offence. The usual question about whether Will Fuller can play surround how effective the Texans’ offence will be this weekend, but even with the return of JJ Watt (and in a reduced capacity) their defence doesn’t look that great and so I worry for them in this game. If we have learnt anything about Deshaun Watson it’s that you shouldn’t count him out, but if the Texans start this game like they did last week, the Chiefs will build a lot bigger lead than the sixteen points the Bills managed last week. I could be wrong as on any given Sunday and all that, but I would be surprised if the Chiefs didn’t win this game.

Seattle Seahawks (5^th) @ Green Bay Packers (2^nd)

The Green Bay Packers are a team that I still haven’t quite got my head around. They were clearly a good team, but they weren’t particularly impressive except you can’t ignore their 13-3 record. Partly the strangeness could be that the Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked himself this season, and if anything this team has been carried by Aaron Jones in the running game and the defence. Except that Rodgers has thrown for over four thousand yards and only thrown four touchdowns and you would still trust him to do something spectacular with the game on the line.

The Seahawks got the win last week, and it certainly feels like they can never play an ordinary game so this should be a fascinating contest. We have two quarterbacks who are absolutely capable of taking over a game, and in rookie receiver DK Metcalf the Seahawks appear to have found a replacement for Doug Baldwin in their season without him. However, there are problems in the running game thanks to injuries and I do wonder if a rested Packers team at Lambeau field will just have too much. I think this might be the closest contest of the weekend, and in a snowy Green Bay it feels like the perfect way to end the divisional round. If I had to pick a winner I think I’d go for the Packers as the healthier team, but this game could truly go either way.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Fallen at the First Hurdle

09 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Carson Wentz, Cleve, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, Deshaun Watson, DK Metcalf, Doug Pederson, Drew Brees, Houston Texans, Jadeveon Clowney, Jerry Jones, Jimmy Haslam, JJ Watt, Joe Judge, John Fassel, Josh Allens, Josh McCown, Josh McDaniels, Julian Edelman, Kellen Moore, Kirk Cousins, Kyle Rudolph, Matt Rhule, Miami Dolphins, Mike Vrabel, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFL, NFL Trivia, Philadelphia Eagles, Ron Rivera, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady, Washington, Wildcard Weekend, Will Fuller

We have had a weekend full of competitive games that yielded upsets and storylines that will rumble on into the offseason, plus there has been a run of new head coach hires so there is plenty to dig into this week.

What I Saw

The first game of weekend saw the Buffalo Bills lose in overtime to the Houston Texans, but whilst the outcome was very similar to what I was predicting before the game – it took a slight detour to get there. For the first forty minutes or so of the game, the Bills had the upper hand, steadily building to a 16-0 lead having scored a touchdown on their opening drive. However, the Bills were unable to make the most of their early offensive success, kicking three field-goals as their defence held the opposition scoreless. The problem was that in the second half, despite being without with receiver Will Fuller through injury, Deshaun Watson was able to lead the comeback as he started connecting to DeAndrew Hopkins, and the highlight of the game was Watson bouncing off two Bills defenders trying to sack him and completing the pass. It was also pretty impressive to watch JJ Watt get a sack with limited use of his arms as he’s not fully recovered from his pec injury. It has to be said there was some questionable game management on both sidelines and fourth down attempts, but the Texans live to fight again whilst the Bills have cause for optimism that I’ll talk about later.

The second game on Saturday is the one that generated all the headlines, even if it was the upset that was being predicted beforehand, but it was still odd to see the New England Patriots have the ball twice in the last five minutes down one point and not be able to get the win. The Tennessee Titans under Patriots alumni Mike Vrabel sealed the win with a last minute pick-six interception of Tom Brady, but the moment everyone is talking about is the Belichick style move Vrabel pulled as he ran out the clock with multiple delay of game and false start penalties before the Titans finally punted the ball having ticked off another minute and a half of clock. What was distinctly un-Belichickian was the two hundred yards of rushing the Patriots gave up to Derrick Henry, although to be fair they did move to the Super Bowl defence of six defensive lineman in the second half and that slowed down Henry some and did disrupt the play-action passing of Ryan Tannehill but not enough to secure the win. This was because once again the Patriots offence couldn’t move the ball consistently enough and of all people, it was Julian Edleman who dropped a crucial fourth down pass when the Patriots really needed it. Take nothing away from the Titans, but their next game could well prove a tougher test.

The first game on Sunday was perhaps the biggest upset of the weekend as the sixth seed Minnesota Vikings travelled to New Orleans and beat the Saints in overtime. This was a slightly curious game as the Saints struggled to get anything going on offence, which is largely down to Mike Zimmer’s defence, but Drew Brees was quiet and suffered his first fumble of the season, whilst the Saints seemed to forget they had one of the better pairs of running backs in the league. There was no bad winner for me in this game as I would love to see Drew Brees get a second ring, but this win at least goes someway to counter all those who say that Kirk Cousins can’t win a big game, particularly as it was his throw to Kyle Rudolph that sealed the game in overtime and he outgained Brees, even if the yardage for both quarterbacks was modest. The Saints didn’t look right for large stretches for the game, but the Vikings are no slouches on defence and got healthy at the right time. I understand why people think the last play should have been reviewed, and you can see Rudolph straightening his arm, but given the standard of evidence they have required to overturn calls this season I am not surprised that the play wasn’t reviewed.

The final game of the weekend was the injury bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and the visiting Seattle Seahawks. Technically this was the third upset of the weekend, but whilst this game saw the third road winner of the weekend, the Seahawks did have two more wins than the Eagles and didn’t lose their starting quarterback early in the game. The play where Wentz picked up a concussion didn’t look bad, but whilst he was diving forward on a scramble Seahawks’ defensive end Jadeveon Clowney landed on top of him and the contact to the back of Wentz’s head was enough for him to have to leave the game at the end of the drive. I’m not sure it was exactly a dirty play, although it should have been called a penalty, and Clowney was taking the opportunity to let Werntz know that if he ran there would be a prices to pay. The sad thing is that Wentz really did nothing wrong, got through the whole season uninjured and still was missing in the playoffs due to injury. The Eagles had dragged Josh McCown out of retirement to be their backup, and he kept the game competitive, in part because the Seahawks can’t play a normal game but in the end he couldn’t do enough. The standout player of this game statistically was rookie receiver DK Metcalf who had one hundred and sixty passing yards on seven catches, emphasising that he really should not have been the ninth receiver taken in the draft, but once again it was Russell Wilson to the rescue and you feel like as long as the Seahawks have him they have a chance.

What I Heard

There’s quite a lot of new, but before I get to that I want to pick up on something that was discussed on The Ringer NFL Show, namely that in the NFL playoff success is reliant on individual matchups and moments rather than how well a team has implemented current trends in the league. We had evidence of that this weekend with the Eagles struggling through a list of injuries that would have felled most teams only for their quarterback to get injured in the first quarter of their playoff game. The Patriots may well have got a win against another team, but having already lost the to the Dolphins the Titans were well constructed to beat the Patriots, much like the Vikings were a good match for the Saints due to their quality on defence and having beaten them in the playoffs two years before. I dislike the whole judging quarterbacks by how many rings they won as well as some of the wider commentary on the league as the NFL does not play a long season, it is a small sample size mini-league followed by a single elimination cup competition. By record the Ravens were the best team in the NFL this season, and they very well could win it all but whilst it might shock, it would not exactly be that crazy for them to be beaten, just like it was not that surprising that the Titans beat a team who won three more games this season. The margins in the NFL are very small, and there is not even that much difference between the roster talent of the best of the best, and that of an average team.

With that said, let’s take a look at where some of the crucial differences between franchises can be found.

Washington were early enough out the blocks with their hire of Ron Rivera that it got included in last week’s post, but the next team to hire were also one of the latest to let go of their 2019 head coach. Apparently, Jerry Jones wanted to give Jason Garrett a soft landing after nearly three decades round the team and after multiple internal meetings it was finally revealed that Garrett was being let go Sunday evening, The Cowboys wasted no time in announcing they had agreed terms with former Packers coach Mike McCarthy the following day. This is not the college coach hire many had predicted, and a lot depends on how fully McCarthy is committed to the analytics and revamped playbook he was talking about in the press in recent weeks, but they are hoping to keep current offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and are slated to hire LA Rams’ special teams coordinator John Fassel, which are both moves I like. You can’t tell anything at this time of year, but the Cowboys produced well statistically this season an it does feel that if you can manage your owner then this job has the most upside for a quick turnaround. McCarthy seems like a coach who will be happy for Jones to take the limelight so I can definitely see this working out if everything comes together.

It gets harder for me to pass comment on the next hires as I don’t know as much about them, but following on from the Cowboys hiring, the Carolina Panthers announced their signing of college coach Matt Rhule on a seven year $60 million contract and the New York Giants then promptly hired Patriots receivers coach and special teams coordinator Joe Judge.

The Matt Rhule contract is both long and rich, whilst Joe Judge is not a name that has been widely discussed, although the recent improved performance by members of Belichick’s coaching tree might have helped his chances.

The final interesting point is that this just leaves us with the Cleveland Browns searching for a new coach, which I mention only because apart from their long and tortured history, there was a lot of talk about Josh McDaniels leaving the Patriots but given the way Jimmy Haslam has burned through coachers and GMs I wonder if McDaniels will take what would likely last chance at a head coach position with the Browns or wait another year for a better situation.

Fell at the First Hurdle

Time to say fond farewell to those teams who were unlucky enough to fall at the first hurdle inn the playoffs.

The Buffalo Bills have a lot to build upon from this season, they may still have to go back to 1995 for their last playoff win, but they have now been there in two out of the last three years. They appear to have their front office and head coach working in unison so if they continue to find players and develop it is not hard to see them back in contention next year. I know from personal fandom how hard it can be to jump from a team that can make it to the playoffs to one that gets the win and so Bills fans will hope Josh Allen makes that leap at quarterback soon, but the arrow still seems to be pointing up for this franchise.

I’m sure rumours of the demise of the New England Patriots are slightly overblown, but looking at Tom Brady’s quote, and the age of both him and the roster and it does feel like it could be the end of an era. However, you would trust in the infrastructure to effectively rebuild, but it does seem odd to think that we might be about to see a new quarterback take over the franchise. The Bills are already challenging, and the Dolphins look set to improve, but this off-season more than most will set the expectations for the Patriots’ next season. All things must end, even the most stable period of a success that the league has possibly seen. I’m sure Dan is thrilled about it.

The New Orleans Saints there third straight last play elimination from the playoffs, and if there was a theme from last weekend it was the fall of the last generation of quarterbacks. The Saints look like they can compete for another year, but it is rare for quarterbacks to age gracefully, and it can’t be long before Father Time comes for Brees. In this age of counting rings, it’s worth taking into account the whole of Brees’s career and what he has done for both the Saints franchise and the city of New Orleans. As ever, we should enjoy these players whilst we have them because it may not be for long.

The Philadelphia Eagles didn’t really have any right to make the playoffs given the injuries they suffered. I went into season thinking they had one of the deepest rosters in the league, and that was sorely tested and there were definitely problems at both receiver and corner back. I have faith that the front office will address this in the offseason, but the Eagles have already moved on from their offensive coordinator and receivers coach, which is worth noting as head coach Doug Pederson had voiced his confidence in them only twenty-four hours before. It doesn’t feel like this team has ever recovered from the post Super Bowl brain drain, and they must start again on offence, and hope to get Carson Wentz in position to succeed in the playoffs. They will also likely need to address the backup quarterback position given how often they have had to play through Wentz’s young career and with Josh McCown being forty they cannot expect him to repeat the trick. I’m not totally sure what to expect next season, but Pederson has got this team to the playoffs three years in a row and won a Super Bowl in his second season so he has earned time to get it right again.

What We’ve Been Asked

‘OK just 4 rounds to go and I should start this week’s post with an apology to the Chiefs. Last week, you will recall, I predicted that the Super Bowl would see a narrow win for the Chiefs over the Saints. Well half of that has already gone the way of all flesh when the Vikings triumphed in Sunday’s overtime win.

I recall last year where some discussion was had over the number of road winners in Wildcard games. In truth there shouldn’t be a surprise as the seedings are such that teams will inevitably close. It’s when the top seeds enter the fray that form, and a bye week, can have an effect. This year, for the record, only the Texans scored a home win but there are 3 other sets of fans with that satisfied smile ahead of Divisional week.

Now for the Trivia and Dan started the week with a 3-point advantage, but has he maintained it?

Q1 – After the Dolphins made it to Super Bowl VIII after the 1973 season, what was the next season they saw Super Bowl action?

There was some thought checking here but both Gee and Dan went for 1982 which is, of course, correct. 2 points each

Q2 – Who did the Vikings play in their first Super Bowl, which was Super Bowl IV, played on January 11, 1970?

Well Gee went for Kansas while Dan picked the 49’ers. The Vikings lost to the Chiefs 23-7. So 2 points to Gee

Q3 – The Patriots moved and changed their name in 1971. What was the home city and their name prior to that?

This caused Gee some head scratching but while the City was Boston they weren’t the Whalers, which could have been either a hockey team or a type of boat. Dan however, nailed it .

The Boston Patriots were an original member of the American Football League in 1960. They took part in the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. They moved to Foxborough in 1971 and because of the move, they wanted a name change. They originally wanted the name, Bay State Patriots, but the NFL rejected that one. The New England name was accepted in March 1971.

Gee scores 1 and Dan 2 to bring the current totals to Gee 24 and Dan 26 = but what is coming next?

Well, for Divisional Week I’ve landed in New Orleans before moving up to New York and I promise there are no Joe Namath questions.

For New Orleans I want to know this: In a game against the Washington Redskins on October 13, 2000, Michael Lewis became only the 7th player in NFL history and the first Saint to do what?

Now it’s the New York Giants so tell me In a game against the Washington Redskins on October 30, 1955, Jim Patton was the first player to achieve what?

Finally for the NY Jets – From 1960 – 62 the NY Jets were known as what?

2 points per question. Pick the bones out of those.’

2019 Wildcard Saturday

04 Saturday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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AJ Brown, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Derrick Henry, Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans, JJ Watt, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, New England Patriots, NFL, Playoffs, Robert Gronkowski, Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady, Will Fuller

The playoffs start today, and unusually both AFC teams are playing today with the NFC taking over the Sunday schedule so let’s take a look at the two AFC matchups.

Buffalo Bills (5^th) @ Houston Texans (6^th)

The Texans won out in the AFC South and are rewarded by getting to host the Buffalo Bills. The headline news about the Texans is the return of JJ Watt from a pectoral injury and he has been cleared to play but this is much earlier than is typical for such an injury so I don’t know how effective Watt will be. Of more importance to the Texans in recent weeks is whether Will Fuller will play as the often injured this season receiver seems to have a dramatic effect on the offence through his ability to stretch the field. He was rested last week but it is looking doubtful that can play, and even if the answer at the start of the game is yes the question is whether he can give the Texans what they need and he has already aggravated an injury and had to come out the game once this season as well as missing five others. Interestingly, the Texans are ranked six places lower overall by DVOA than the Bills and not only are the worst ranked of the playoff teams by DVOA, but are ranked below seven teams who failed to make the playoffs. Now two of those teams are special cases as only this year’s iteration of the Cowboys could manage to rank top ten statistically (6^th overall by DVOA) and still manage to miss the playoffs with their 8-8 record, whilst the Rams in a down year still won nine games despite having to play the 49ers and Seahawks twice thanks to being in the fearsomely competitive NFC West. The Bills also ranked below the Rams and Cowboys but unlike the Texans, they did not rank behind any other team who failed to make the playoffs.

The Bills has a somewhat quiet season in terms of press coverage despite never coming close to a losing record and finishing the regular season 10-6. They are not a flashy team and have their limitations on offence. In his second year Josh Allen has improved, but he is still far from an elite quarterback but the Bills have done enough to win thanks to their defence, which ranks sixth in the league by DVOA and hasn’t allowed the opposition to score more than seventeen points in the last four weeks. This looks like it should be a really competitive game and I don’t have a clear winner in this one, but I just get the feeling that between the Texans being at home and Deshuan Watson’s ability to conjure something out nothing, that the Texans will edge this one out. That said I love the direction the Bills are heading in, with a front office and coach working in lock step over the last three years, and even if they don’t manage to get their first playoff win since 1995 today, it feels like it is coming.

Tennessee Titans (6^th) @ New England Patriots (3^rd)

The Patriots won the AFC East for the eleventh year straight, but have not looked quite the same team on offence, with people whispering with a little more evidence this time that Tom Brady is too old and a week seventeen loss to the Dolphins set alarm bells ringing amongst their faithful fans. The Patriots have the number one defence in the league, but have neither been able to get the passing game going whenever they want nor had the power running game they were able to utilise to such effect last season. Between the retirement of Robert Gronkowski and the play of Tom Brady dipping just enough, people are wondering if the end of an era is finally coming.

Part of the reason for this worry is their opponent, the Tennessee Titans who after a rough start to the season switched to Ryan Tannehill as their starting quarterback and from then went on a 7-3 run that took them to the playoffs. They also enter this game with the rushing champion of the league in Derrick Henry who managed to average over five yards a carry, whilst rookie receiver AJ Brown had a breakout season and seems to have forged a real bond with Tannehill.

This game should be fascinating, although the often-bad January weather looks to be heading into New England. The Titans have a real chance in this game, but it feels like Patriots probably have enough to win this at home, particularly as I am sure that Belichick and his staff with be throwing every trick they have at this game. It is a testament to their history that no one is comfortable writing them off, but this could very well be an end of era, and if the Patriots do win they are going to really struggle against either the Ravens or the Chiefs.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Already Thinking of Next Season?

18 Wednesday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Aaron Rodgers, Adam Gase, AJ Brown, Andy Dalton, Baltimore Ravens, Bill O'Brien, Black Hole, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jonnu Smith, Mike McCarthy, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Tennessee Titans, Urban Meyer, Will Fuller

I’m starting this week’s post early as Christmas is already messing with my usual weekly schedule, and it’s still over a week away so let’s see what I can get out written for you and when – the timeline of this week’s post might be a little out of sync.

What I Saw

The final Thursday night football of the 2019 season (which feels like a very odd thing to be writing right now) was a one sided contest where the good home (Baltimore Ravens) beat the poor road team (New York Jets) and covered a fourteen and a half point spread to boot. It was more of the same for the Ravens who continued to sweep away all in their path. I’m thoroughly enjoying watching the Ravens play and the surprising thing about this game was only that they managed to run for over two hundred yards going against the league’s second rated rush defence going into this game by DVOA. I’m curious what happens to the Jets in the off-season as Adam Gase manoeuvred his own person into the GM role, but he has struggled mightily this season whilst his former underachieving quarterback Ryan Tannehil is playing like a man transformed in Tennessee (correct at time of writing, I have not watched the Titans game yet – that’s coming later). Given his win-loss record and that the thing Gase is meant to be is a quarterback whisperer, the performance of this Jets team and Sam Darnold in particular has to lead to some pressure coming Gase’s way as questions need to be asked.

The next game I watched was the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay Packers, which was a strange game in that for long periods the Packers defence had control of the Bears offence whilst the Packers offence did enough to eek out a lead. The Packers were able to withstand a fourth quarter comeback as Trubisky found enough success to get to within eight points, but it was too little too late. The funny thing about this game is that for a large stretch of the game the Packers looked better, but the offence still doesn’t look quite right and Aaron Rodgers seems to be having a quiet year, but at 11-3 Packers fans might not be complaining too much until the playoffs. I’m not sure the Packers have what it will take to compete with the elite of the NFC despite their record but that could change rapidly if Rodgers can find some of his previous form and I would be hesitant to bet against that. Meanwhile, the Bears have recovered from some of their problems this season but face some big decisions about Trubisky and the direction of the team in the off-season, which looks like it could start at the end of week seventeen.

One of the games with the most riding on the result in week fifteen was that divisional matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans, where the Texans ran out 24-21 winners but could have won much more convincingly if Deshaun Watson hadn’t throw two interceptions in the endzone. Equally the Titans looked to move the ball more effectively for long stretches of this game and had their own ricochet interception near the Texan’s goal line. The result gives the Texans a big edge in the race for the division and they have the easier game next week as they take on the Buccaneers whilst the Titans have to take on the Saints next week. It may well be that the Titans don’t quite make the playoffs but they look to have found something in Ryan Tannehill and his connection with developing rookie receiver AJ Brown, whilst tight-end Jonnu Smith caught the eye with his speed both catching the ball and rushing for fifty-seven yards from his one snap at running back. The Titans might well be the more consistent team over the last eight weeks, but don’t look to be able to overcome the 2-4 start to make the playoffs, whilst the Texans can compete with anyone when healthy and if they go into the playoffs with receiver Will Fuller healthy then they will be a danger to whoever they face. Their ability to win games whilst being out-gained is what happens when you have a couple of superstar players who can turn a game for you with big moments and receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a huge fourth quarter in this one. I’m sure Bill O’Brien would love his team to play more consistently from week to week, but for a coach whose future is often speculated upon he has gone to the playoffs and won the division in three of his six years and only had one season with a losing record. My worry for this team is the future given the draft picks they have given up this year, but they are a dangerous team that no one will want to face come the playoffs.

The last game I watched was the New England Patriots easy win over the Cincinnati Bengals, which even after we hear more about the dubious taping of the Bengals side-line last week, I’m still not that upset about that and this was pretty much business as usual and no team needs that much of an edge to beat the Bengals at the moment. The Bengals were competitive for the first half and moved the ball okay, but the problems in the red-zone and turnovers once again doomed the Bengals to a loss. This was not helped by Andy Dalton throwing four picks, including a pick-six to Stephon Gilmore who had a second interception and kept Tyler Boyd to three catches for twenty-six yards. The Patriots offence still looked to be struggling, whilst the Bengals ran for one hundred and sixty-four yards against the Patriots defence and outgained the Patriots offence. I still can’t sit here and say the Patriots won’t compete in the playoffs, but it would not exactly be a surprise if this team can’t turn it around in the post-season as there are warning signs. However, we have been here before and having gone to four of the last five Super Bowls and won three of them, I’m not saying the Patriots are out of it until they absolutely are.

What I Heard

There’s been a lot of different topics, including more on the Patriots documentary filming as a section of the film was leaked on Monday.

More interesting to me though, has been the discussion of ex-Packers coach Mike McCarthy who has apparently hired himself a staff to be the thirty-third team in the NFL so he can work the 2019 season. McCarthy has also been investigating analytics and was talking about his staff plan for the football technology team he wants. Obviously press like this doesn’t just happen, and after a year off he will be definitely looking to get back into coaching and is trying to drum interest, but it does sound like a positive thing to hear from a coach who was accused of lacking innovation in the final years of the time with the Packers. Despite the focus on young play callers in recent years, it’s not difficult to see some teams going for either McCarthy or Ron Rivera in a few weeks.

There has also been some discussion about former college coach Urban Meyer as he was seen in a press box at Washington, which has fueled speculation that he might be a target as the new coach for Washington or that the Cowboys might be interested in him should Jason Garrett fail to produce a significant playoff success.

It seems the days of waiting until Black Monday after week seventeen to fire your coach and start the search is well behind us, that allows this kind of speculation to get started well before the season is even done.

What I Think

There were a number of unexpected results over the weekend, which in of itself is not that unusual given the parity of the league and the small sample size, but even so the 49ers losing to the Falcons and the Jaguars beating the Raiders were two results that jumped out to me as well as the Cowboys beating the Rams 44-21.

It feels odd for the final Raiders game in Oakland to be a 16-20 loss to the Jaguars in week fifteen, and a fairly ignominious end for one of the most famous home sections in the league. The moving of franchises always feels alien to me as it is something that happens so rarely in the UK, but with two teams moving to Los Angeles and now the Raiders moving to Las Vegas, there are a lot of franchises in flux at the moment. The Vegas move might well be the most successful in terms of fan support (the Rams are having problems and the Chargers nearly always play to more away fans their tiny temporary stadium), but it still feels sad to be the Black Hole. The Oakland stadium needed renovating or replacing, but you can’t just replace or recreate the Black Hole and there is something inherently sad for those fans even if all things must end.

What I Know

I know that I need a miracle to turn around the picks competition, and that this off-season I really need to find time to go through my spreadsheets from the end of last season, work out my method/formula and combine that with my pick system this season and see if I can come up with a formula to get back into contention next season.

What I Hope

I am actually beginning to embrace the idea of the Bengals selecting Ohio raised Joe Burrow in the draft and seeing if he can turn round the team next season, but a lot of other things also have to improve for us to recover from a woeful 2019 season. Still there’s good football left to enjoy this season so let’s not get ahead of ourselves too much.

On the Home Straight

04 Wednesday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brandon McManus, Buffalo Bills, Carlos Dunlap, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Dalvin Cook, David Blough, David Tepper, Detroit Lions, Drew Brees, Houston Texans, Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones, Josh Allen, Justin Tucker, Kenny Galloday, Kirk Cousins, LA Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, NFL, Ron Rivera, Russell Wilson, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Tom Brady

There is now only a quarter of the regular season left and week thirteen saw the Bengals win their first game, the Panthers part with one of the longest tenured coaches in the league, and Jason Garrett looks to be heading the same way at the end of the season after the Cowboys loss on Thanksgiving so let’s take a look at a busy week in the NFL.

What I Saw

The first Thanksgiving game saw the Chicago Bears take on a struggling Detroit Lions team who were down to their third starting quarterback, but after a successful first defensive drive – David Blough completed a deep pass to Kenny Galloday for a seventy-five yard touchdown and for most of the game the Lions were able stay ahead or level with he Bears but ultimately the Lions couldn’t hold on and the Bears won 24-20. Things are still not great for the Bears but this was a decent performance whilst the Lions have lost a fifth straight as things are just not working, and not getting pressure on Mitch Trubisky was enough for him to have a three hundred yards passing day, a rare thing for the Bears this year.

Next up the Buffalo Bills rolled into Dallas and ground out a win against the Cowboys to take themselves to 9-3, which gives them a two-game lead against any other second placed team in the AFC. The Bills took the chance to demonstrate the tough defence and steady progress of their second-year quarterback Josh Allen on the national stage. The Cowboys meanwhile continue to confound, and whilst this is not the first time there has been talk about Jason Garrett losing his job it definitely feels like the problems with the Cowboys have become too much for Jerry Jones.

The final Thanksgiving game was a strange contest that saw the New Orleans Saints out-gained by the Atlanta Falcons but ran out winners thanks to some steady kicking and the Falcons three turnovers. The Falcons mini-recovery was not sustainable whilst the Saints are still looking very competitive in what is a loaded NFC. The fact that the Saints managed to get to 10-2 without Drew Brees for five games is a demonstration of how good their coaching staff is and should not be forgotten amongst the other outstanding performances this season.

The first Sunday game I’m going to write about was a match-up of another pair of outstanding 2019 teams as the San Francisco 49ers traveled right across the country and played an early game against the Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers defence were helped by the rain and managed to contain the Ravens all game but lost to a last second Justiun Tucker forty-nine yard field goal from one of the best kickers to play the game. It’s almost unfair for a team who has one of the most explosive offences in the league to have such a good kicker, but the 49ers looked to be every bit as good in this game and I think people would be very happy to see this match-up again in a Super Bowl.

The other Sunday game I watched was the Cincinnati Bengals proving me wrong on Sunday and comfortably beating the New York Jets. The Bengals defence seems to have come on in the last few weeks whilst the injuries have caught up with the Jets who struggled to move the ball all game whilst the Bengals got lots of pressure and Carlos Dunlap racked up three sacks. On offence, Andy Dalton threw for two touchdowns to break the franchise record for passing touchdowns on his return to the starting line-up and looked solid in distributing the ball getting help from some impressive catches. I’m really pleased for the Bengals as no one wants to be another team to go winless and what I liked was the talk about not being satisfied but trying to build good habits and momentum for next season. We shall have to see. As for the Jets, they really struggled and I’m really not sure what they will do in the off-season given the disappointment this season has been given the investment over the summer.

The final game of the week was a great contest between the Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks where the Seahawks were able to withstand a late game comeback from the Vikings a finish the game 37-30 winners. There will be a lot of talk about Kirk Cousins’ 0-8 Monday night record and I certainly had more faith in Russell Wilson but the injury to Dalvin Cook and a couple of drops by the normally reliable Stefon Diggs didn’t help Cousins. Given the quality of the Vikings’ defence you would expect to score thirty points and win a game but they were competitive and I would imagine they feel like they could still win against any team going forward. The Vikings fell a game behind the Green Bay Packers at the top of the NFC North, but with three divisional games their fate is very much in their own hands. As for the Seahawks, they have the same number of wins as the 49ers in the NFC West and are looking to kick on into the playoffs and see just how far they can get.

What I Heard

There has been plenty of talk about the Cowboys as there always is, but Jason Garrett is not the only coach to be under scrutiny. The LA Chargers found another way to lose a close game, this time not ensuring their opponents had to return a kick off and eat up clock so there was just time for the Denver Broncos to try a deep pass that drew a pass interference penalty and Brandon McManus to hit a fifty-three yard field goal in the thin Denver air to clinch the game.

There had already been speculation around Ron Rivera given the Panthers current losing streak so when the Panthers lost to Washington this Sunday, new owner David Tepper decided he wanted to get an early start on finding a successor and fired Rivera on Tuesday. The two time NFL Coach of the Year who took the Panthers to a Super Bowl stated his desire to get straight back into coaching today and it would not surprise me at all to see him in charge of a different team next season.

What I Think

I have gone through multiple games this week and still the headlines come. The New England Patriots are having problems in the passing game and weren’t helped by an illness running through the team that saw them take two planes to Houston, but segregating the ill players didn’t help them stay in the game against the Texans. I don’t know if the problems the Patriots have are solvable, but I don’t think anyone doubts that if there is a solution, the combination of the coaches and Brady will find it. However, with the Ravens marching on and the Chiefs looking like they are coming into form at the right time it could be a new team representing the AFC after a hat-trick of appearances from the Patriots.

There looks to several strong teams at the top of both conferences and if everyone can stay healthy in the last month we could have an exceptionally good series of playoff games. I don’t want to wish away the season, and there’s plenty of interesting match-ups to come but it does feel like we have a bumper crop of teams with realistic shots at playoff success.

What I Know

There are only four games left and whilst many teams are gearing up for a playoff run, there are also a lot of teams who will be looking at players at the bottom of the roster as they try to evaluate who they think will be the cornerstone of turning things round next season. It seems crazy to be thinking about that already, but this is the reality of the NFL.

What I Hope

I really do hope that the teams at the top of the divisions stay healthy so the outcomes are determined on the field and not in the training room.

Thanksgiving Prep

27 Wednesday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, Devlin Hodges, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Mason Rudolph, Mike Tomlin, New York Jets, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ross Tucker, Ryan Finley, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Ty Hilton, Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller

With the three Thanksgiving games coming up tomorrow there is a feast of prime-time football for everyone to enjoy so let’s take a look at the run up to week thirteen as we near the final quarter of the season.

What I Saw

On Thursday night we saw a close divisional game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans where the Texans were able to eek out a win. This was not a spectacular game but a tough tense one where the Texans were able to bounce back from their heavy defeat against the Ravens the week before by stepping up their defensive performance and making enough plays on offence with receivers Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins working well as a tandem. The Texans do look a different team when they have both of these receivers fit, but the Colts were as competitive as they have been all season, getting more out of their offence than I feared because of their injuries, but in the end a couple of drops by TY Hilton cost them the game. This was Hilton’s first game back after several weeks out with a calf injury, but he wasn’t using that as an excuse and the backups to Marlon Mack (out with a broken hand) ran the ball well enough but the Colts fell short in the end. Still, the Colts are not out of the race for the AFC South but with the Titans catching them up with another win this week the race for this division could get very interesting. I’m not sold on the Texans being the ultimate winners even if they have a game lead for now.

On Sunday the Cincinnati Bengals welcomed their local rivals, and even led the game for a while but in the end fell to the all too familiar loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a close 10-16 game. The Steelers didn’t look that great doing it as whilst their defence played well, holding the Bengals offence to multiple three and out drives as Ryan Finley never looked comfortable, it took a change in quarterback to spark enough offence for the Steelers to win but more about that in a moment. For the Bengals, Tyler Boyd made some great catches and Joe Mixon showed flashes in the run game but they couldn’t move the ball consistently. The Bengals defence has looked stouter over the last couple of weeks but that doesn’t really matter if you regularly can’t even get to twenty points and the Bengals have barely managed that this season. The desperation for a win is clearly growing as the Bengals are going back to Andy Dalton this week, and with a game against the Dolphins, two against the Browns, and the Jets visiting this weekend they will be hoping to break their duck somewhere. As for the Steelers, they are comfortable in this kind of defensive game as they are not prone to the long touchdown concession the Bengals are, and when Mason Rudolph was struggling Mike Tomlin made the switch to Devlin Hodges in game who promptly threw for the seventy-nine yard touchdown play that did enough for the Steelers to maintain a push for a wildcard spot. They probably need to win three or four games and have results go their way to be in with a shot but they are at least still alive in the chase.

I was planning to watch the Patriots take on the Cowboys, but given the weather in New England I made the switch to watch the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Tennessee Titan’s and it was a curious watch. It was nip and tuck until the third quarter with both teams moving the ball but struggling to maintain drives yet the four point deficit at half time was the closest the Jaguars would get after the Titans opening touchdown. A twenty-eight-point explosion in the third quarter sealed the game for the Titans with Derrick Henry breaking out for the type of monster game that he has proved multiple times he is capable of but we don’t always see. Henry finished the game with one hundred and fifty nine yards, with a seventy-four yard long touchdown run very much being the highlight. The Titans have now won four of their last five games since switching to Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback and you begin to wonder where they might be if they had made the switch earlier. It is strange to think that the Jaguars were in the AFC championship game two seasons ago and have a Super Bowl winning quarterback but don’t look great, and you begin to wonder what changes await in the off-season for a coaching staff and front-office who have never been able to repeat their first year of success.

The final game I watched this was the incredible looking matchup of the Green Bay Packers visiting the San Francisco 49ers that turned into a romp for the 49ers. I was worried about the extra half point in the picks competition because of how good Aaron Rodgers is, which turns out to have been no problem at all for the 49ers. Their defence smothered the Packers, holding them to under two hundred yards total offence and Rodgers could only throw for one hundred and eighteen yards. He didn’t throw any interceptions, but fumbled the ball away whilst being sacked and couldn’t get comfortable all game. The 49ers defence limited Rodgers ability to bide time in the pocket, which so few teams have managed to do but this enabled then to get five sacks and numerous hits whilst Fred Warner racked up eleven solo tackles at the heart of the defence. I don’t think the Packers are suddenly a bad team, but there appears to be a gap between the 49ers and the rest of the top teams in the NFC that does still include the Packers. What this game did do was increase my respect yet again for the 49ers defence, who are still second in the league by DVOA to the Patriots’ defence but whilst there is 6.6% between the 49ers and Patriots, there is 14.9% back to the third place Steelers. I knew the 49ers were playing well on this side of the ball, but seeing them play together is really impressive and I can’t wait to see them go against the Ravens next week.

What I Heard

The headlines from the weekend focussed a lot on the fall out of the ugly game between the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys, where the weather hampered both teams but the Patriots adapted whilst the Cowboys did not and with Jerry Jones criticising Jason Garrett the speculation about his job security has started up again. There are plenty of valid criticisms of both Garrett’s game management and his game planning but after a number of years without change, the talent of the current Cowboy’s roster seems to giving a Jones a different impression of the job Garrett is doing. Everything with he Cowboys get over-covered, and this is hardly the first time that rumours have started but it is beginning to look like a change is finally coming for one of the longest tenured head coaches in the league.

The other thing that leaps to mind was Ross Tucker commenting on how quietly the Buffalo Bills have gone 8-3 this season. That said they do get a chance this Thanksgiving Thursday to put on a good showing for the nation as they take on the Dallas Cowboys and I’m definitely looking forward to the chance to watch them again.

What I Think

This week felt like an odd one, there were one or two results that I just didn’t see coming, several blow outs, a couple of weather affected games, but not a lot of games grabbed the attention with how one sided the match ups actually played out. I can’t wait to se the Raven take on the 49ers this and the Vikings take on the Seahawks this weekend. I don’t know how I feel about the Bengals’ game against the Jets yet.

What I Know

That this is one of the highlight weeks of the season, where I can get to see an extra two games in a wee and four without knowing the scores (the joys of catching up in the UK) and so I’m determined to sit back and enjoy the games as much as I can.

What I Hope

I hope that whether your watching round work, taking a day off, or are in the States and celebrating the day, that you have a good one!

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Twelve

21 Thursday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Competition Thursday, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, Week 12 Picks

Here are our pick results for week eleven as we start week twelve whether I am ready or not.

Dan:	Week 11: 9-5	Overall: 89-73
Dan’s Dad:	Week 11: 8-6	Overall: 89-73
Gee:	Week 11: 9-5	Overall: 83-79

Colts @ Texans (-3.5)

I’m looking forward to this game, but I am really not sure where to go as whilst both teams have their injury problems, they kind of cancel each other out as the Texans secondary is as injured as the Colts’ offensive skills positions. That might account for the extra half point between these two 6-4 teams who are playing a huge divisional game tonight. In the end, I am going to plump for the always over simplistic better quarterback who has more of his own players available to grab the edge, and whilst that extra half point is going to worry me until the game is over – that’s what I shall have to live with.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Week 12 Trivia

‘Week 11 was an odd week in many ways with some large spreads making the Picks side tricky. That said we saw Gee return to the scoring we have become used to (9); Dan also reaching (9) to level up at the top after I returned a (8). So, with six weeks to go and six points covering top to bottom, no chickens are yet being counted and the colours of the TWF logo remains in the balance.

The Bengals were 2nd best again but can take some heart in the Raiders failing to cover the spread. The Bills at the Dolphins is a game that Dan and I was a few years back but this year the Bills were too strong and more than covered the spread. The Vikes hosted the Broncos, another game I saw years back, the Randy Moss Lateral game, and I think Dan and I could both see the Vikings win but not by enough for the spread and that in fact is exactly what happened.

Standings wise I think we have known for a while that the Bengals and Dolphins ships have sailed but the NFC North looks like another two horse race with the Packers and Vikes tied on eight wins but with Minnesota on a bye week I have to look to the 49ers beating the packers in Sundays late game. Looking ahead though I think the three weeks of the regular season will be pivotal.

OK – the Trivia bit for week 11 asked:

What highly touted player his entire 9 year career with the Detroit Lions after he was selected with the 2nd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?

Well both Dan and Gee knew that this was Calvin Johnson so 2 points each leaves Gee on 11 but Dan’s theme bonus last week edges it for him at 14. Oddly I had considered offering an extra point for Johnsons nickname. Dan included that it was ‘Megatron’ but I hadn’t asked it so there you go.

Here’s one for Week 12 then as our road-trip pulls into Green Bay. Not sure how this will go but I want to know:

In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?

There are some great names to play for – who gets your vote?

Bye week for now’

Separating the Merely Bad from the Truly Awful

06 Wednesday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adam Gase, Adam Thielen, AJ Green, Andy Dalton, Andy Reid, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bruce Allen, Cincinnati Bengals, Dan Quinn, Dan Snyder, DeAndre Hopkins, Dee Ford, Denver Broncos, Deshaun Watson, Gardner Minshew III, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jim Turner, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kansas City Chiefs, Kenyan Drake, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, London Games, Marvin Lewis, Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins, Mike Brown, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, Nick Bosa, Nick Foles, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Finley, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Darnold, San Francisco 49ers, Todd Bowles, Tom Brady, Trent Williams, Washington, Zac Taylor

With week nine over we have one unbeaten team left, another year of London games completed, and Adam Gase continued to cause the Miami Dolphins problems by being so bad with the New York Jets that they lost to a Dolphins team who are not actually trying to win this year as they reboot their roster. So let’s take a swing through the NFL and what they have coming up.

What I Saw

The Thursday night game was more competitive than I was expecting as the Arizona Cardinals marched down the field in the opening drive and scored a touchdown then late in the game managed to claw their way back into contention but ultimately lost to the visiting San Francisco 49ers. Sadly for the Cardinals, the stretch from the end of the first quarter to early in the fourth allowed the 49ers to build a big enough lead to win. The plus points for the Cardinals were Kyler Murray’s continued improvement, posting a quarterback rating of 130.7 in this game and new acquired Kenyan Drake running for one hundred and ten yards on only fifteen carries as he managed to find creases in the 49ers normally excellent front seven. That said, the pass rush of the 49ers is very impressive and whilst only generated the three sacks, they seemed to be causing problems on most plays with Dee Ford catching the eye opposite rookie Nick Bosa. The 49ers offence was just as impressive with Jimmy Garoppolo posting his own quarterback rating of over 130 as well as four touchdowns and over three hundred yards of passing, all whilst the rushing attack had to use thirty-one carries to get to one hundred and one yards. There are definite signs that Kyler Murray can be productive in the NFL and find his way, but this was always going to be a building year for the Cardinals, whilst after several of their own building years it looks like Kyle Shanahan’s plans are finally coming to fruition as the 49ers remain the team to beat in the NFC, if not the league right now.

The first game played on Sunday was the last of four London games that saw the Houston Texans beings hosted by the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was expecting the Jaguars who are used to the trip to London to perform better than this, but they were never able to get anything going on offence, although it wasn’t until late in the game when Gardner Minshew was trying to make things happen to catch-up that he started turning the ball over repeatedly. It has to be said that the Texans’ offence didn’t look to be running that much better than the Jaguars, but the ability of Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Watson to make spectacular plays was the thing that really separated these two teams and it looks as if the Texans will be competitive to the end of the season, although I’m not sure they are good enough to maximise the all-in moves they have made in managing this roster. It’s not going to hurt them this season, but with all the draft picks they have given away they could have issues going forward. The Jaguars meanwhile, are sliding back in the race for the post-season and the question will be what they do at quarterback now that Nick Foles is near to being healthy, and whether either quarterback can get the team into the playoffs.

The next game I saw was the Minnesota Vikings losing a close game to the Kansas City Chiefs 26-23 at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are know to have a home field advantage and it certainly sounded loud on the TV. This was a close competitive game that I’m sure will be frustrating to Kirk Cousins as he missed a lot of throws and was not at all up to the level of play we had seen in October, although receiver Adam Thielen did have further problems with the hamstring injury he has been dealing with for a number of weeks. That said, the Vikings were held to under one hundred yards rushing at 3.5 yards per carry, which is pretty good for a rush defence that is currently ranked twenty-eighth in league by DVOA. If the plaudits should go anywhere though, it is to Andy Reid, who has kept his team winning despite losing Patrick Mahomes to a dislocated kneecap and starting Matt Moore at quareterback in his stead, and more was coaching high school football a month ago. Moore may only be 1-1 as a starter this season, but he also contributed to a win when he stepped into the game against the Broncos and it gives the Chiefs the luxury of not rushing Mahomes back. They may not look at their best right now, but they could look good come the playoffs, whilst the Vikings also looked competitive, but there will still be questions about Cousins in big games until he wins more of them.

The final game of Sunday was the match-up of the week for most people, and it was certainly a good game but in the end the Baltimore Ravens ran out 37-20 winners as they hosted the now beaten New England Patriots. Ran out is definitely the right turn as the Ravens amassed over two hundred rushing yards where they got up early on the Patriots and never relinquished that lead. The Patriots did steady the ship after going down 17-0 by the start of the second quarter, but even if they slowed the Raven’s rushing attack, they never really contained Lamar Jackson and needed turnovers to get themselves into scoring positions. The Ravens were able to take advantage of the Patriots offensive line to pressure Tom Brady and limit the Patriots’ running game. It is only one loss, and the only one the Patriots have had this season so it would be unwise in the extreme to write off the perennial contenders, but their looks to be less of a gap between the Pats and the other contenders in the league this season. For the Ravens, I see them having no problem beating up on the Bengals defense next week given their problems at the edges of the front seven, and whilst there are tough games against the likes of the 49ers, Texans and Rams, as well as a not easy game in Buffalo in the coming weeks, the Ravens have two more AFC North games and host the Jets so I find it hard to see them not winning the division and the question is whether they can get a bye for the first round of the playoffs.

What I Heard

There are plenty of people who are happy for the Miami Dolphins’ players as they got their first win, but anyone who was surprised by the result had not been paying attention to how the Dolphins had played since putting Ryan Fitzpatrick back in as quarterback. There were some who greeted his signing in the off-season as not being fully aligned with the rebuilding project that was clearly taking place as he might win them too many games, and he has certainly had a positive effect on their offence in recent weeks. However, the real story is that the New York Jets were major players in free-agency and were meant to be kicking on this season and have done anything but. In truth, this is a franchise in a deep funk that has problems in the front office, on the roster, and the coaching staff so it is not surprising that their franchise quarterback looks to be regressing rather than improving this year. The real problem here is that there is no overall plan and the GM who drafted Sam Darnold is no longer there whilst the team have gotten worse since the firing of Todd Bowles. There is plenty of blame to go around and New York is not an easy media market to function in, but you have to wonder who is going to survive this at the end of the season.

I did hear an interesting discussion around the Trent Williams holdout and the reason why Williams is not happy with Washington’s medical staff. His grievance is about a growth he had for a number of years that turned out to be cancerous, and I thought that doctor David Chao did an excellent job of walking you through the medical side of things so if that sounds of interest then I recommend you take a look at this tweet and go from there.

What I Think

I want to take a quick look at a few of the losing teams because despite there being four teams with one win and the winless Bengals, I do think there is a difference between the bad and the truly awful. The first place to start in the separation is the Miami Dolphins, who for years have been suffering in mid-table mediocrity as they were to good to get elite players in the draft but weren’t making the playoffs every year. Losing was the plan this season, not as an aim in of itself, but in rebuilding with young players through next year’s draft and so whilst we don’t know if things will turn around the results this year are not a disaster but a calculated consequence of their method of rebuilding.

The rest of the teams are meant to be competing but there are perhaps extenuating circumstances for some. The results are of course going to be a worry for the Atlanta Falcons, and I don’t know if Dan Quinn is going to keep his job, but there is a lot of talent on this roster, but it is not deep and they have struggled with developing both lines. There is talent and a franchise quarterback so the right person might be able to turn this things around but it will likely require a change of approach by the front office if not new leadership.

The Cincinnati Bengals were pretty much sunk before the season started and my concerns quickly came to fruition. The loss of three starting lineman to injury and or retirement before the season was the precursor to their problems protecting Andy Dalton and I was always concerned about the hire of Jim Turner given his chequered history, but the loss of AJ Green to an ankle injury at the first practice o a high school field that the team should never have practiced on is particularly galling. I can’t help but wonder if a more experienced coach might have stopped the event when he saw the field. The Bengals were once a laughing stock, but Marvin Lewis brought respectability and Mike Brown has invested in the largest coaching staff the Bengals have ever had and renovated the building as they committed to Zac Taylor’s vision. It has done anything but pay off so far, but I’m not sure previous regimes would have turned the offence over to the rookie quarterback who looked promising in training camp to see what they have in him. They could have given more time for Dalton to try to find another team once they decided to bench him, but they probably want Dalton to be a mentor for Ryan Finley and it sure looks like we’ll see him in a different uniform next season.

However, this is where I think the extenuating circumstances end. The Jets as I said earlier were meant to be competing but their dysfunction starts with ownership and how they have approaches solving their problems in recent years and until they find the right GM to establish a culture and commit long term to its implementation they will continue to struggle.

The final team are the Washington no-names, who have an argument to have one of the worst owners in American sports. It’s not like Dan Snyder hasn’t spent money but he has presided over a mess in the front office and I’m not sure what Bruce Allen has achieved as president to earn such loyalty. Snyder bought the team in 1999 and since then Washington have had six winning seasons if you count 2016 8-7-1 and haven’t won a playoff games since 2005. Not only has the on-field performance been bad, but the franchise has gone from being the preeminent part of the Washington sports seen to a team that regularly sees more away fans than home in the stadium.

All of these teams need a lot to go right to turn them round next season, but I really do fear for the Jets and Washington.

I would also like to give a bonus mention to the Cleveland Browns who can’t get out of their own way and I’m not sure the Denver Broncos are truly going to compete until John Elway can find another quarterback.

What I Know

I had a terrible week in the picks competition last week, but what I know is that sometimes you modify your numbers by gut and your right, and sometimes you get led astray but it’s the over-correction in the following week that you have to watch.

If I put as much thought as I do into just picking games, I know that the staffs on these losing teams will be working as hard as they can to improve their team’s situations. There is a lot of work going on behind the scenes, no one is trying to lose and what I hope is that they learn from this situation and improve.

After five years of blogging about the entire league I spend my time wishing success for people – I want things won through skill and clever strategy and for players to be as healthy as they can when they get out.

What I Hope

I really hope that Ryan Finley gives the Bengals a spark and that if the tean are to move on from Andy Dalton, that they can take best player available or even drop back and pick up some extra picks in next year’s draft. After all, as we have had ample proof recently, there really is no such thing as guaranteed franchise quarterback just because they were selected in the first round.

The Unknowable NFL

02 Wednesday Oct 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Tags

Aaron Rodgers, Alvin Kamara, Andy Dalton, Arizona Cardinals, Bryan Bulaga, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Chase Daniels, Chicago Bears, Christian McCaffrey, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Drew Brees, Gardiner Minshew, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jaylen Samuels, Khalil Mack, Kirk Cousins, Kyle Allen, Matt LaFleur, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Teddy Bridgewater, Vontae Davis

All bar the two teams on a bye last week have sailed past the quarter pole of the season and this Sunday sees the first of the four game London series getting played so we can definitely say that the 2019 season is in full swing, but as so often the case it feels like we know less for certain than ever about how the teams are going. Let’s see if I can explains some of that as I take you through my week of the NFL.

What I Saw

Week four started with one of the more entertaining games we have seen this year with he Philadelphia Eagles running out 34-27 winner in Green Bay against the Packers. The game started out as I expected with the Packers defence looking strong and the packers taking an early touchdown lead but in the second quarter three Eagles’ touchdowns saw them take a lead that they would hold until late in the third quarter and retake in the fourth. A strong offensive line performance enabled the Eagles to rush for one hundred and seventy-six yards and not give up any sacks whilst their defence held the Packers to under four yards per carry until the Packers virtually gave up on running that ball. What the Packers were able to do was throw the ball and it was Aaron Rodgers who kept them in the game (despite losing tackle Bryan Bulaga early) thanks to a four hundred and twenty-two yard passing day. The offence may not be clicking yet for the Packers but I think that Rodgers and Matt LaFleur will find a way and the league had better watch out when they do given how the Packers defence has played. The Eagles meanwhile really needed that win to stay in the NFC East race now that the New York Giants have found two wins in the opening four games. They had some players come back from injury but it was good to see the coaching staff get the win despite the players they were still missing.

The first of the Sunday games that I watched was between the Houston Texans and the Carolina Panthers who through a defensive game that saw only two touchdowns but nine sacks as the Panthers ran out 16-10 winners on the road. This win was built on the Panthers’ derfence’s ability to contain the Texans offence, particularly in the passing game where Deshaun Watson only threw for one hundred and sixty yards whilst getting sacked six times and harried a lot more. There are still problems with the offensive line (which might be worth a coaching tape look at some point) and Watson has a tendency to hold onto the ball trying to make a play. You can hear him talk about the coverage in this clip that got a lot of people talking about his honesty so it’s worth having a look. Meanwhile the Panthers have got their second straight win since Kyle Allen has replace the injured Cam Newton, but whilst he was efficient enough to get the win he has to work on his ball security/pocket awareness as you can’t expect to fumble away the ball three times and expect to keep winning games. The defence played well, but in this era of multiple offences and running back by committee special mention has to go to Christian McCaffery who played all sixty-eight of the Panthers’ offensive snaps, amassing ninety-three yards on the ground with the teams only touchdown as well as eighty-six yards catching the ball. The Panthers look to be holding things together whilst they wait for Newton to get properly healthy, but they have an awful lot resting on the body of McCaffery at the moment and I just hope he can keep carrying the load until Newton comes back. Meanwhile the Texans are one of the four AFC South teams that are 2-2, which looks again to be a division that will beat each other up all year and then one or two teams will get hot at the end of the season and make the playoffs. The long term concern is the roster construction given the draft picks they have traded away going into the season as it does not appear that they are as close to challenging for the Super Bowl as the trades would suggest they think they are.

The second Sunday game I watched was another low scoring affair (if I wanted offence the Buccaneers @ Rams was the way to go) as the Dallas Cowboy lost a close one on the road 12-10 to the New Orleans Saints. This was a game that only saw one touchdown and that was for the losing Cowboys as both defences dominated the day. For all their early season success the Cowboys struggled to move the ball, particularly on the ground where they were only able to get forty-five yards as the Saints defence new exactly where to be for each run. The Cowboys were not able to get enough done through the air to win the game with Presscott throwing for two hundred and twenty-three yards and an interception. If the Cowboys didn’t quite look like themselves on the road, the Saints look to have a really good defence that is allowing them to win games without Drew Brees. Teddy Bridgewater threw for under two hundred yards in this game with a long of only twenty yards but the offence managed to rush for over one hundred yards thanks in large part to the power and balance of Alvin Kamara. The Saints will be hoping to keep themselves in the hunt until Drew Brees gets back, but I don’t know if they can keep relying on their defence to play like they did in this game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have to hope that this was a blip road loss, but the offence did not look like it was flowing properly and that’s something to keep an eye on.

I don’t want to write about the final game of the week, but given that the Cincinnati Bengals were playing in the Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers I have no good reason not to cover their miserable 3-27 loss on the road. The problems are perhaps obvious and to an extent predictable as the Bengals kept losing offensive line starters before the season had even started and four games into the season they are struggling to make room in the running game or protect Andy Dalton when passing the ball. The other worry I have is at linebacker and in particular at the edges of the defence and this came to pass as the Steelers used Jaylen Samuels to take direct snaps and touch passes to attach the edges. It’s hard to tell how much of a turnaround this is for the Steelers given how Bengals have played this season but it’s a step. Meanwhile, the Bengals are facing a huge game this Sunday as in only their second home game of the season they welcome another winless team, the Arizona Cardinals and if they don’t win that one then this thing could get really ugly. I’m probably clinging to tightly the fact that two of the games were really competitive and the Bengals have face three tough road games so far but that comes to an end this week.

What I Heard

There has been continuing conversations about the new wave of quarterbacks and backups as rookies Gardiner Minshew II and Daniel Jones got their second wins as starters, Kyle Allen got a second win with the Panthers whilst Chase Daniels came off the bench to help the Bears beat the Vikings in a performance that has drawn comments about how Daniels was able to at least get the ball out where it was supposed to and accurately on the underneath throws.

The Vikings offence has been another source of discussion given it’s focus on running the ball despite Kirk Cousins being in the second year of an $84 million guaranteed contract. Normally you might question the offensive coordinator’s but given his track record with OCs this really sits with head coach Mike Zimmer who is always talking about running the ball, but it doesn’t make sense to be so focussed on that when you have arguably one of the best receiving duos in the league. There’s been plenty of criticism of Kirk Cousins, but to my mind that feels a lot like the criticism of Andy Dalton and no these are not the elite of the elite, but they are good enough to win if you put the right team around them. I agree with the commentators who say that you can compete by paying elite but were you get into trouble is overpaying for talent. This isn’t a matter of who deserves to get paid as a human being but how you build a competitive roster in a salary cap sport and the I don’t think the problem is necessarily in the roster of the Vikings (their o-line could be better but so could most teams these days) but there is a disconnect in paying Cousins what they are and then not utilising him. I respect coach Zimmer and was reluctant to see him leave the Bengals although happy he was finally getting a chance to lead a team, but I do wonder if he has reached his level if he can’t allow his offence to run as the current version of the NFL dictates. I have a feeling he’s stubborn enough to keep the team playing like this and so the Vikings will be competitive but I don’t know that they are going to maximise this year’s team and that is a worry as the defence is not getting any younger.

What I Think

I have watched the transformation of Vontaze Burfict from a tone setting star of the defence who got the team lined up and played up to the line whilst straying over it occasionally to a liability who seems lost in his own mythos as his time on the field got less reducing both his productivity and conduct. The hit that got him ejected from this week’s game is being legislated out of the game for a reason, but almost as bad was the grin as trotted off as if he was proud of himself. There are team mates and coaches for the Raiders who are unhappy but I’m not sure that feeling will be shared around the league and there are plenty who are happy to see him gone for the season. In fact it’s not hard to find people who don’t want to see him play again. There is an argument about taking away someone’s lively hood but the fact of the matter is that in no other industry would a disregard of the rules be tolerated, particularly in a matter of health and safety. It’s not always possible to adjust when players are going at full speed but when you have the track record of Burfict you lose the benefit of the doubt.

What I Know

That after a thoroughly miserable time watching the Bengals this week I am hoping to both actually get to some coaching tape and to cheer myself up by watching Khalil Mack who is once again showing just how bad an idea it was to trade him away. It should be a fun subplot this weekend in London as the Bears take on the Raiders for the first time since Mack was trade to Chicago last year.

What I Hope

That one of Dan and I get put out of our misery and gets our first win and that the NFL continues to be as unpredictable as it was this week, even if it is terrible for our picks…

What I Saw

What I Heard