Tag Archives: Houston Texans

Delayed Again

15 Thursday Aug 2019

Posted by in Hard Knocks, Pre-Season

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Somehow it has been a week already and despite having watched all that I intended to in time, I had one of those days at work yesterday that meant there was no chance of getting a blog out on schedule, but there’s just time to read up ahead of the start of the pre-season week two games.

What I Saw

The first game I watched last week was the Houston Texans visiting the Green Bay Packers. In a move that is becoming increasingly common neither team actually played their starting quarterback but while the Texans gave Joe Web the entire game the Packers played three different quarterbacks as the Packers held off a late surge by the Texans to win 28-26. We all know that pre-season results don’t really matter, what is important is staying healthy and putting players in the positions the coaches want so they can evaluate them. However, there is an increasing narrative that coaches actually get more out of the combined practices that are becoming increasingly common across the league, although don’t tell Aaron Rodgers that. Rodgers made news by offering up some criticism of a kicking drill, but I’m not sure how much to make of this given that player safety is a genuine concern and everything Rodgers says seems to be dissected to death by the media these days. I’m not sure anyone outside of the team has enough information on how the relationship between Roders and his new head coach Matt LaFleur is, in fact I shall be following the Packers news more closely over the next few weeks as with so many starters resting it was hard for me to identify names and performances that jumped out of this game so let’s quietly move on to the next thing I watched.

Hard Knocks is a staple of the NFL pre-season and a lot of it hit familiar beats, although I don’t think we’ve seen the undrafted player grinding to make the team get cut in the first episode before. We didn’t get much detail of Antonio Brown’s foot injuries, and we seem to be predating his concerns over his helmet but we met plenty of characters and as ever a huge part of the flavour of the show is set by the head coach. I wasn’t that fussed by Gruden’s whole ‘eveyone has dreams but I want to give people nightmares’ speech, but that’s just me. I did warm to him across the episode then and I am interested to see Derek Carr get some playing time and how the series develops. This week we’ll get to see their join practices with the LA Rams and their game that the Raiders won 14-3.

The Raiders defence did a really good job of containing the Rams offense without any spectacular plays but looked really solid and is something to watch going forward to see how much it holds up. There is competition between Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman for who will backup Derrek Carr and it was one of those tough ones where Glennon often looked good but threw two interceptions where as Peterman got a touchdown pass and a fifty-six yard run whilst throwing no interceptions but his average pass yard was 5.5 and this is a player who has looked good in pre-season before and thrown five interceptions when he has started. An area that looked obviously strong was the Raiders receivers, who even without Antonio Brown had three receivers with plays longer that fifteen yards and Carr will be hoping that he has even better chemistry when he gets to play. It’s hard to say too much about the Rams given they were resting starters all over the team as Sean McVay really doesn’t put much stock in pre-season and they went pretty well last year. Still, I’m sure fans of the Rams would like to see a little more production on offence this season.

So finally we have the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to the Kansas City Chiefs and getting beaten badly. Both teams actually played their starting quarterbacks in the first quarter and they moved the ball effectively. However, the Chiefs offence continued to roll, helped no doubt by two botched special teams returns that set them up with great field position. Special teams is one of those areas of football that often gets overlooked and yet is particularly relevant at this time of year as any player fighting for a spot on the roster is going to get a boost if they can contribute on special teams. Because I have been following the offseason reporting I was able to spot  rookie free agent Stanley Morgan Jr catch several balls in the last quarter and I wonder if he’ll get a chance earlier in the game this week. In fact whilst there were one or two concerning drops, there were a number of sold receivers looking to take advantage of the playing time currently vacated by AJ Green. It also has to be said that Morgan Jr might have benefited from playing with rookie quarterback Ryan Finley who looked to outplay incumbent backup Jeff Driskel who has been running some routes as a receiver and been in special teams meetings having approached the staff about adding extra value. I don’t know if the Bengals are eyeing up a similar role to the Saint’s Taysom Hill but Driskel is an impressive athlete. For the most part the Bengals offensive lines held up well despite mixing and matching lineups and a couple of holding penalties. The worrying part is the defence, and we know that the Chiefs are a stern test but they missed some tackles and apart from second year defensive end Andrew Brown no one particularly caught my eye other than the Chiefs’ rookie receiver Mecole Hardman who looked really dangerous and the pairing of him and Tyreek Hill are going to cause serious problems this season if Hardman can contribute to the level he looked capable of this week.

As an additional Brit-centric plug, if you have somehow missed Christian Wade’s touchdown run for the Buffalo Bills then take a look at this play as it’s impressive. He still has a lot of work ahead of him to impress a team enough to give him a roster spot but that’s a memory he will always have.

What I Heard

We still have the ongoing training camp chatter of players on the bubble, stock rising and falling as if this isn’t also people chasing difficult dreams that a good third will fail to achieve or maintain.

The discussion of Ezekiel Elliott’s contract has given way to speculation that the Cowboy’s quarterback Dak Prescott has turned down a $30 million a year contract as he seeks a $40 million year one. There are many ways to create a roster and it is interesting to look into this but it always seems a bit odd to speculate so heavily over contract numbers.

What is interesting is things like the Packers having to find a third fullback in a hurry due to both players they currently have carrying injuries and there are not that many fullbacks ready to just step up to the roster so it will be interesting to see how Tommy Bohanon plays having been signed on Monday and went straight into take reps with the first team offence.

What I Think

I understand why there are questions about the pre-season and there are times where there is objectively bad play. I find it interesting that coaches feel they getting better work in the controlled environment of joint practices, but I do like following the pre-season and going blogging about it for the sixth year in a row I do wonder what form it will take in the coming years.

What I Know

Given how busy the next couple of months look this will not the last time I have to modify my blog schedule but I will do my best to stay on top of it and the picks will still go up ahead of the games as I really would like to get the blog back in Bengals colours, and I know Dan thinks the Dolphins’ version of the logos look particularly fine, but then he might be biased.

What I Hope

That the Bengals defence looks better this week and that I start to get a better feel for the Packers roster as they look to implement the new names and system.

Now I’m off to try to catch up with all the things I’m behind on!

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A Cynic’s Reaction to the Draft

02 Thursday May 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Off-Season

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I don’t think that you can know how good a team’s draft was until at least three years after the players were picked, and even then the process can be logical and the players don’t work out for injury or various other reasons. Not to mention that as someone who listens to draft podcasts but doesn’t actually watch college games I don’t have strong opinions on individual players.

I would suggest one of the reasons the Bengals have failed to make the playoffs the last three years is that the first four pick from the 2015 draft are not on the roster right now. You are never going to have every pick working out, but the combination of missing on the two offensive tackles selected in the first and second rounds in 2015 and letting Andrew Whitworth go undermined the offence because Andy Dalton is a quarterback who needs a clean pocket to operate and neither of Cedric Ogbuehi or Jake Fisher played well enough at tackle. I don’t generally believe that there are simple solutions to complex questions, but this is pretty clearly the start of the Bengals’ problems on offence. At least two of the last three seasons were also derailed by cluster injuries and that can happen to any team, but getting the depth of roster right is part of being a winning franchise and there are plenty of teams who are competitive nearly every year.

So, whilst I don’t think we can know which teams have drafted well last week, I can take a look at the moves I liked and what I have questions about.

I will start with the three franchises supported by the TWF team, although not my Bengals for once.

I am increasingly impressed by the Miami Dolphins’ approach this offseason and they sealed this by not reaching for a quarterback in the first round and then acquiring Josh Rosen for only a 2019 second round pick and a fifth round selection next year. This gives the Dolphins a top ten quarterback prospect for minimal draft capital, they only have to pay him $6 million dollars for the rest of his contract, and they have the fifth year team option for a first round draft pick. This gives them outstanding value and even if Rosen doesn’t work out they can draft a quarterback next season in a draft that is supposedly a better one for quarterbacks. The simple fact is that there is a clearly identifiable plan in in Miami, and they are sticking to it. That doesn’t mean it will definitely succeed, but they stand more chance of winning big by resetting and rebuilding than they did on the constant treadmill of not quite being good enough that has been the approach for the last few seasons.

As for the Bengals 2019 draft, the pick of tackle Jonah Williams seems very logical given our roster and quarterback. A lot of draft experts liked the player and enough said he was the best tackle in the draft so I’m pretty happy he will start somewhere along the line this year. There were comments about the Steelers trading up to the tenth pick to grab Devin Bush and hurting us in the process, but the Bengals did pick a linebacker in the third round and that would be the kind of move that I would usually associate with the Bengals given their approach to value and where they typically invest their draft capital. The Bengals have generally been really good at drafting for a number of years (the 2015 draft obviously being an exception) and whilst this never resulted in playoff success there were rarely criticisms of the talent ofnthe roster. The 2015 season is still the one that feels like it got away where Andy Dalton was playing as well as any quarterback in the league before he broke his thumb. I’ll be really interested to see they go under the new regime. I also like the trade up to grab quarterback Ryan Finley in the fourth round as whilst I don’t think there is a pressing need to replace Dalton right now and wasn’t expecting the Bengals to aggressively go after one, Finley has time to develop behind Dalton. The new regime looks to be building competition across their entire roster and this includes the quarterbacks’ room. I think it is a good idea to keep a flow of young quarterbacks into the room as you never know who you might found and these can often be traded away towards the end of their contract if they are not challenging your starters. Just look at how many quarterbacks developed behind Tom Brady that the Patriots have later traded away for picks and who have also helped them win games.

The Minnesota Vikings’ offseason has not created a lot of news in the corners of the NFL media I follow, and nor has their draft despite them selecting twelve players. I am not at all surprised that with their first four picks they addressed concerns on offence by picking a centre, guard, tight-end and running back. I will late Dan’s dad take it from here as he’s been following the Vikings’ offseason more closely than I have:

‘While I accept the excitement that the bringing in of new faces has for the fans I will admit to never totally understanding the process. I know that last year’s position determines where a team sits in the pecking order for the draft but allowing teams to trade up and down almost makes a mockery of the event. I’m sure some of you understand it better than I but to me it’s like explaining cricket to a French exchange student, or an American for that matter.

What I do understand are numbers and the comments of the GMs explaining their strategy. For example I understand that there was a record of 40 draft day trades across the league this year and the Vikings GM Rick Spielman was involved in 6 over the 2 days.

What did strike me though from looking at the names the Vikes went for is that firstly there were no marquee names, often there is hype around one or more names which cause a stir in their selections. Secondly the balance of positions throughout the team suggests a considered approach looking for general strengthening rather than a quick fix. Indeed ‘quick’ isn’t really the aim, it takes time to bring new blood into any team especially in the NFL when everyone has and works to very specific roles.

This year then, for me the big ticket item is Boise State running back Alexander Mattison. Only a 3rd round pick but Spielman’s patience was rewarded, managing to land N.C. State centre Garrett Bradbury in round one and Alabama tight-end Irv Smith Jr in second were on the list and fortune left them both available in what can become a lottery.

Trying to absorb all the changes it does seem clear that the selections have, as should always be the case, been ones which will ‘fit’ alongside what is already there. To me that is a huge positive. In a season long grind you don’t need ‘show ponies’ when well drilled and safe hands are what’s needed. Mike Zimmer is a builder of teams and scouting will have found the best targets. That said getting them from your wish list and through the draft takes luck and I think this year luck has been on the Vikings side.

Time will tell but for now it’s encouraging!’

I think that’s a pretty full summary but did want to pick up on a thing Dan’s Dad mentioned about augmenting your roster with the draft. Although I think that a team should look to build through the draft rather than relying on free-agency, I do think it is important to go into the draft with no glaring needs on your roster. You can have priorities but where I think teams get into trouble is reaching for a player that solves a problem rather than picking the best player available. It can be dangerous to go after a star free agent but you can still augment your roster carefully so come the draft you get what your players is available and sure, if you have comparably rated players and one is a weaker position you would take that player but it is dangerous to reach, and it looks like the Houston Texans did just that after the Eagles traded up above them to take Andre Dillard. Now, the tackle the Texans took could work out and I really hop Tytus Howard does work for them as I generally want teams to be successful but it does feel like the Texans just went down their list of tackles rather than their overall list.

If balancing your roster and picking best player available is my key concept going into the draft, then I would generally prefer a team to trade down rather than up, although this gets more flexible the deeper into the draft you go. I think the only player you should really move up for in the first round is a franchise quarterback unless there is a player deep in the first round that you think is worth coming back up for to get the fifth year option. That said, I didn’t mind the Pittsburgh Steelers’ moving up to ten to take linebacker Devin Bush as their defence has just not been the same since Ryan Shazier suffered his horrible injury and this should give them a real boost. I also understand why the New Orleans Saints have been so aggressive in trading picks to get the right players as they are trying to maximise their chances of getting Drew Brees another ring before he retires and they have to carry out a longer term reset.

I liked the Colts moving down to acquire more players as their rebuild continues to progress and I get the feeling they could be really competitive next year. I’ve not been a fan of Washington approach to the offseason in recent years but they have to be pretty happy that quarterback Dwayne Haskins fell to them at fifteen. It looks like the Baltimore Ravens didn’t miss a beat in their first post Ozzie Newsome draft and I suspect the AFC North is going to very competitive this season.

The Denver Broncos did well to move down and pick up and extra second round pick yet still get quarterback Drew Lock in the second round. The worry will be that apart from Peyton Manning so far John Elway has failed to find a franchise player at the position he himself was so good at. There’s time for Lock to develop behind Joe Flacco who the Broncos traded for in the off-season, but Elway really needs one of them to work out soon or questions really might be asked by ownership about if Elway can get them another Super Bowl.

However, if there is one team where ownership should be asking questions it is the New York Giants given that a year after refusing to listen to offers and picking Saquon Barkley with the second pick they ignored the order of most draft grading and picked Duke quarterback Daniel Jones. If he works out and plays better than Sam Darnold then David Gettleman can prove his doubters wrong to a degree, but Jones would likely would have been available at pick seventeen, which they got for trading away Odell Beckham and who did they get with the seventeenth pick? A run stuffing defensive tackle to replace the one they traded away during last season which hardly seems to be a good return for one of the most dynamic receivers in the game. As I say Gettleman could prove his doubters wrong but I don’t like the way he’s gone about this and the aim isn’t to pick a quarterback that does better than the one he had last season, it’s to win a Super Bowl and that feels a long way away for the Giants as currently constructed.

Still, the only way to tell for sure is to wait three years and see how things pan out so lets sit back and wait out what is the quietest bit of the NFL year, but it’s the beginning of May so before you know it we’ll be starting training camps and gearing up for the one hundredth NFL season.

Fell at the First Hurdle

10 Thursday Jan 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Here we are in the second week of January with four playoff games complete, eight teams left, and six games to the Super Bowl. Today I’ll be taking a look at the playoff teams who fell at the first hurdle and will run through the coaching news as I have it, although it will be worth you checking the usual places as events are picking up pace as teams start to hire.

Houston Texans

The Texans made it to the playoffs but fell to their surging division rivals in the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans had a slow start to the season, and there was talk of Bill O’Brien’s job being in danger if they lost again and fell to 0-4. Instead they got an overtime win against the Colts, and then ripped off a further eight wins. The problem they have though, is whilst the front seven of their defence is strong, and they have one of the best receivers in the game as well as a dynamic young quarterback, there are holes in the rest of the team. This might not be surprising given they had to trade away picks to get their quarterback in Deshaun Watson, but they need to balance up the skill players surrounding DeAndre Hopkins or get them healthier and they need to improve the secondary of their defence. They have the sixth most cap space looking forward to 2019 so they have some room to manoeuvre, particularly with a young quarterback on a rookie deal, but they also have several picks in this year’s draft that have been traded away. More worrying is that whilst O’Brien keeps making the Texans competitive in the division, they have not quite convinced and the Colts look like they are shaping up to be a fearsome team in 2019. Experience teaches us that the Texans will likely compete for the division title again next season, and it was definitely great to see JJ Watt playing a high level again and who know what he might be able to achieve with a full off-season without a major injury to rehab. The Texans have gone to the playoffs four times in the last eight years, and twice under O’Brien, but in his five years as head coach they have only won one playoff game and that just makes me wonder if the owner will start to think about a change if the Texans can’t get a step further next season.

Seattle Seahawks

This is going to be curious one to write up as in a lot of ways the Seahawks defied the expectations coming into the season by finishing 10-6 and making the playoffs despite their young roster. The defence was overhauled and they committed to running the ball as their identity and that was good enough to make the playoffs, but my worry is that they will be too stubborn surrounding the offensive game plan. The repeated run on first and second down in their Wildcard loss to the Cowboys was not effective thanks to the Cowboys fifth rated rush defence. We have moved well pst establishing the run as a offensive philosophy and I very much believe that what you need is a credible threat to do either so that play action is effective. In Russell Wilson the Seahawks have one of the most effective quarterbacks in the game, and if they say ran play action on fifty percent of their first downs and threw in some mid-range passing they could be really effective without abandoning the run. I just don’t know if it is going to happen or not and it makes no sense to extend Russell Wilson as they will need to do shortly, and pay him the premium he is going to deservedly ask for if they don’t make the most of him. That doesn’t mean they should start running an Andy Reid style offence, but to my mind the offence needs tweaking. They have plenty of cap space and frequently draft well, but I just don’t if they are going to change spots now and I wonder if that will hobble them from getting back to the Super Bowl.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens got back to the playoffs after three years of missing out, and discovered the future of their offence in rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. They can’t keep giving him carries at a record setting pace despite him only playing half a season, but he can throw the ball and the fact that he was able to get a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter of their Wildcard loss to the Chargers should reassure that he won’t be solved by a clever defence. The front office won’t be the same with Ozzie Newsome stepping down, but it feels like with the infrastructure in Baltimore they will be back and competitive next season. It certainly seems like John Harbaugh will stay as long as he gets the contract extension with the terms he wants. Unlike many defences, the Ravens always seem to be around the top five in the league and so you would imagine that the Ravens can focus on getting Jackson tools for the passing game, although you can never have too many pass rushers or corners. The Ravens are a little below league average for cap space in 2019 as currently constructed, but you would expect them to be there or there about next season and with a good draft they could be really scary.

Chicago Bears

The Bears loss in the Double Doink game was heart breaking, although the field goal miss has been amended to a block as a defender did get a touch. Either way, the worry for the Bears is that they had the number one defence in the league and couldn’t get the game won against the Eagles. They are twenty-third in the league in salary cap and there are players whose contract has expired. As defence is generally considered to be less consistent year to year (unless you’re the Ravens it seems), any step back from the defence would have to be countered by an improvement in the offence. Although Matt Nagy has improved the team, and there has been lots of focus on the way he called the offence, it only finished twentieth in the league by DVOA. I definitely thought that Mitchell Trubisky looked better this season, but he really needs to improve next year and there’s no way of knowing if it will happen. They also look like they will be without defensive coordinator Vic Fangio who is being looked at as a head coach candidate for the Broncos, who was the mastermind behind the Bears defence, and whilst they have a lot of talent, a new coordinator is not guaranteed to get the same result with the new roster next season. I do think the Bears can remain competitive, but there are enough factors to make Bears’ fans wary that it was a one season wonder. Hopefully a good pre-season and start to the 2019 season will put those fears to rest.

Coaching Hires

And so we move to the coaching carousel, where we have started to get some hires.

First up were the Green Bay Packers, who had a head start thank to their firing of Mike McCarthy mid-season. They are hoping to capitalise on the rise of Sean McVay by hiring his former assistant Matt LeFleur after one year of running the offence in Tennessee. It’s hard to assess how good a job LeFleur did with the Titans given the nerve injury Marcus Mariota battled through for large parts of the season, but at age thirty-nine with limited experience it is a risk. He’ll have been hired with a mandate to innovate and to get the best out of Aaron Rodgers, but as ever with young coaches it will all depend on how he builds his staff. I don’t think it is a coincidence that both McVay and Matt Nagy had first year success as a head coach and had very experienced defensive coordinators to lean on.

There will be no such concerns about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ new head coach, as they have hired Bruce Arians, who is one of my favourite coaches. I hope the year rest has helped his health as that is honestly my biggest worry, but he was attracted to the Bucs by his relationship with GM Jason Light and if anyone can turn around that franchise given some time it is Arians. I’m not totally abandoning my previous comments on the Bucs from last week as there is a lot to do, but I have about as much faith in Arians turning it around as anyone.

The Cleveland Browns have hired their temporary offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens as their new head coach, following the recent trend of teaming up an offensive mind with a young quarterback and we shall have to see how this works. Certainly the rapor with Baker Mayfield seems positive, but these hires haven’t always worke so we shall have to see.

The Arizona Cardinals have hired Kliff Kingsbury from college, and the honest answer is I don’t know enough about college football to judge this hire. It is deliberately an offensive coach to develop Josh Rosen and I’ve sean a video clipe of Sean McVaty praising him but only time will tell on that one.

Finally, at least of the ones I’ve seen confirmed, the New York Jets have hired Adam Gase to be another offensive minded head coach paired to a young quarterback, and Sam Darnold will have to hope to replicate the success of Peyton Manning than Ryan Tannehill.

There are other hires in the works as well as coordinators hired or staying so keep your eyes out and we’ll do a deeper dive when things calm down and we don’t have more important things like games to watch.

Wildcard Saturday

05 Saturday Jan 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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So here we are at the start of the playoffs with a Wildcard Saturday that features two games.

Indianapolis Colts (6th) @ Houston Texans (3rd)

The first game of the playoffs is an AFC South divisional rivalry game that sees the Texans host the Colts.

The Texans took a slightly strange route to the playoffs as they lost their opening three games and there was talk that Bill O’Brien’s job was in danger, but then they went on a nine game winning streak before alternating wins and losses. The strength of this team is their top ten defence, even if their special teams unit does rank higher by DVOA, but this defence features a strong front seven including a healthy JJ Watt and a slightly suspect pass secondary. Meanwhile on offence they have relied on running the ball and Deshaun Watson’s legs to compliment DeAndre Hopkins amazing ability as receiver. Hopkins should be considered amongst the best receivers in the game but does not have a lot of help around him and the Texans’ offensive line is definitely a problem. We’ll take a look at how this might play out shortly, but firstly let’s talk about how the Colts got to this game.

The Colts also had a tricky start to the season that included an overtime loss to the Texans that sparked the Texans’ nine game winning streak. However, slowly all three phases of the team came together in Frank Reich’s first season in charge and that in of itself is something worth talking about. The Colts were ready to officially announce Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as their new head coach once the Super Bowl was over, only for McDaniels to pull out at the last minute and leave the Colts scrambling to find a new coach and what a coach they found. Frank Reich left the Super Bowl winning Eagles and was able to use the staff that had already been assembled for McDaniels to turn the Colts from a team who went 4-12 last season to a 10-6 team that returned Andrew Luck to health and form. The defence was the first thing to come together, ably led in tackles by rookie linebacker Darius Leonard, they dragged themselves into the tenth best unit in the game by DVOA. Meanwhile, for pretty much the first time in his career Andrew Luck has an offensive line that gives him more than a couple of seconds to get rid of the ball and Marlon Mack has given them enough balance as a runner to make this offence effective. We all knew that TY Hilton was a great receiver but free-agent acquisition tight-end Eric Ebron has also benefitted from his new surroundings, contributing thirteen touchdowns to go with his seven hundred and fifty yards.

This should be an interesting matchup between two teams who obviously know each other well. Earlier in the season Deshaun Watson was over exposing himself running the ball and had to deal with bruised lung and ribs that were serious enough that he was bussed to one road game rather than flown. The defence of the Colts should be able to match up to the Texans’ offence, particularly as they will be able to double Hopkins without too much worry as long as they can contain Watson. Meanwhile if the Colts offensive line can protect Luck as they have recently then the Colts should be able to move the ball effectively on the Texans. The Texans lost their last home gain against the Colts, and whilst I can see it being another close game I actually kind of fancy the road underdog to spring the upset.

Seattle Seahawks (5th) @ Dallas Cowboys (4th)

The Dallas Cowboys are another team who started relatively slowly, going 3-5 before turning things around and only losing one more game this season. The catalyst for this transformation appears to be the trade for Amari Cooper, and whilst his success does not negate the argument that the Cowboys traded away too much to get him, the move certainly helped this team. As did the defence’s transformation from one that was overly reliant on linebacker Sean Lee to one that thrived on the play of rookie linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith finally beginning to show some of the college form that excited so many before his horrible knee injury in his final bowl game. The Cowboys are actually only ranked twenty-first in the league by DVOA, although their defence is top ten but their winning formula has been utilising the NFL leading rusher Ezekiel Elliott more effectively whilst Amari Cooper has opened up the passing game enough to make the Cowboys a functional offence if an uninspiring twenty-fourth by DVOA.

This Saturday they host a Seattle Seahawks team that many had written off in pre-season as they overhauled their roster, moving away the last vestiges of the Legion of Boom defence and collecting young talent. However, Pete Carroll has returned to the formula that saw him have so much success and so whilst the defence only ranks fourteenth in the league by DVOA, the offence ranks in the top ten thanks to their run first approach and Russell Wilson efficient play in the passing game. The now thirty-year old quarterback threw thirty-five touchdown and only seven interceptions, relying on his chemistry with Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin when available. However, Chris Carson has run for eleven hundred yards in fourteen games and it is the run first approach that has allowed the Seahawks to remain competitive and overcome an 0-2 start to make the playoffs.

This should be a bruising old school game that is going to feature two tough defences and a lot of running the ball. The Seahawks actually rank nine places better than the Cowboys by overall DVOA and given Pete Carroll’s playoff experience, not to mention a Super Bowl win, it is hard not to give them the edge over Jason Garrett’s Cowboys. It might be one for the football purist but I’m certainly looking forward to it.

20 down, 12 to go!

01 Tuesday Jan 2019

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

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This is my first blog post since Christmas, and my first of 2019, so I hope you had a great festive period. It’s back to reality now though, and the work really begins for the 8 teams left in the running for the Vince Lombardi trophy.

I don’t want to dwell on it too much as I want to spend the majority of this post looking at the ‘Wildcard 8′ but I feel I must mention – the Dolphins were woeful in the last 2 games of the season, and it’s ended up costing Adam Gase his job. To me, it’s not really a surprise if I’m being perfectly honest. He was even more Average than Average Andy in Cincinnati – going into Week 16, his record was 23-23 as Dolphins head coach, and with owner Stephen Ross’ ambitious expectations for his team, that doesn’t really cut it unfortunately. That being said, I can’t see him being out of a job for long as he’s known as being fairly highly regarded amongst a number of teams, especially the Browns, who are also on the look out for a new coach. I wonder how popular that would be with Jarvis Landry…?! The problem the Dolphins have now is who might come in to replace him – news I’ve heard has Rex Ryan going around telling everyone who will listen that he’s getting the job, which is a bit worrying to me (although I’m not 100% sure how reliable the source of the story was!).

Another final point of note on the ‘Fins before I move on is the annual ‘End of Year Ejections’ from this weeks game. This year, it was Kiko Alonso and Robert Quinn who were ejected in the third quarter for Unsportsmanlike Conduct and Unnecessary Roughness. It’s difficult to defend Kiko on this one; it’s not the first hit like this that he’s made this year, and he’s started to get comparisons to Vontaze Burfict for similar hits. It decimated our defence for the game, but even before that point, we’d established a terrible stat of the most yards allowed in a season in franchise history… not a great record to be breaking.

So, on to the Wildcard 8! There’s four games this weekend for the right to go onto play the Chiefs, Patriots, Rams and Saints in the Divisional round. I’ll go through each of the games and make my predictions…

Saturday kicks off with the Colts visiting the Texans. The Colts snuck through on Sunday night and I’m looking forward to seeing how the Houston rushing game develops. This year, the Colts haven’t allowed a single rusher a 100 yard game – especially impressive considering they’ve faced the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry (twice!). As divisional rivals, they’ve met twice already this year, sharing wins. My pick for this one is the Houston Texans.

Next, we have the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Seattle Seahawks. For me, this is going to be the game of the weekend, and is definitely one I’m looking forward to catching. Both teams finished 10-6, and both are largely here due to a really strong finish, with Dallas winning 7 of their last 8 games, and Seattle winning 6 of their last 7. Dallas are a good team but I just think this might be the end of their road, so I’m picking the Seattle Seahawks.

Moving on to Sunday, the early game is back to the AFC, where the Chargers and Ravens meet. This one’s quite straightforward to me having watched quite a few Chargers games this season and being really impressed – I genuinely think that Philip Rivers is finally going to get another Postseason run, so I’m going to go with the LA Chargers. That being said, I strongly suggest you go back and check out the Ravens/Browns game from Week 17, where the Ravens clinched their post-season visit – really good game with an exciting ending.

Finally we have the Eagles and the Bears who meet late on Sunday. These two teams are, in their own ways, a bit of a surprise. Not many people would have picked the Bears to win the NFC North, especially so convincingly. They’ve done incredibly well this year though, and have gelled brilliantly as a team. On the other hand, while it shouldn’t be surprising that the Eagles are there (given that they’re the defending champions), they really struggled with consistency this year, and if it wasn’t for a strong end to the season, they might have missed out. A lot of this is going to depend on how Nick Foles recovers this week – he’s got sore Ribs following Sunday’s game with the Redskins. With Carson Wentz out, they may struggle if he isn’t at his best. This is the most difficult to call of the weekend I think, but I’ll go for the Chicago Bears.

Only one final thing remains before I wrap up for the week – a quick look at how my bet is looking for the Rams:

And that’ll be that. This time next week, we’ll be down to just 8 teams, and there’ll be only 7 games (plus a pro-bowl, which listeners of the pod will know we don’t count!) left this season. Buckle up – there’s still a lot of football to be played!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

AAF: JJ Watt

23 Sunday Dec 2018

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For this week’s amateur adventures in film I decided to give myself the Christmas present of JJ Watt on coaching tape so I took a loot the Houston Texans’ week fifteen game against the New York Jets.

Watt may not be in the discussion for MVP like he was in his pomp only a couple of seasons ago, but he has amassed fourteen and a half sacks this season that has him tied for second in the league with Denielle Hunter and Von Miller, behind only Aaron Donald. Watt book-ended this game with two sacks and in between was a destructive force throughout. He was spelled a couple of times for a handful of plays, but for most of the game he was on the field at left end, be it as part of the Texans’ 3-4 base defence or more their more predominantly used in this game 4-2 nickel look. That said he also played right end at time as well as lining up as a pass rush defensive tackle lined up opposite an offensive tackle, although he would rush the guard inside him.

On the Jets’ opening drive, Watt got round first the left tackle and then the right tackle on successive plays before stalling the drive with a sack. The things that perhaps I was most impressed with by Watt was his use of hands. I was praising David Bakhtiari last week for his patience, which was because of how good he was with his hands when he engaged the pass rush and Watt has a similar ability being put to the opposite use. Watt has the knack of either avoiding blocks or getting off them thanks to his ability to control contact and this combined with his still formidable physical gifts allows him to play the run incredibly well as well as being a danger rushing the passer. He might have had even more sacks were it not for a couple of holds that were called and some more that I thought could have been called. Watt is not a straight speed rusher but often uses speed to power, or dips his shoulder round the tackle to power towards the quarterback as well as straight bull rushing the offensive player in front of him. He also frequently nearly got tackles in the backfield that he had no right to get near and forced the quarterback to move in the pocket even if the offensive player stayed in front of him.

The Jets did not slide all their protection to Watt, but it was common for him to be double teamed or get bumped by a running back or tight end as they went past. There was one play where I’m sure the right guard Brian Winters was pointing out something for the protection scheme, but it did look for all the world like he was saying he’s there, Watt is there. The results for the Jets could have been worse, but for all that he has looked like a rookie this season, I thought that Sam Darnold showed good awareness in the pocket and moved to deliver the ball as well as scrambling effectively a couple of times. He has not got a lot of strength at the skill positions and the Jets might have a player to develop around in the coming years.

I really enjoyed watching this tape as there was a time in the last couple of seasons where it felt as if Watt was never going to get back on the field and whilst he may never quite live up to the previous highs he reached, Watt is once again an all pro player and I wouldn’t like to bet against him repeating this play in the future. That is perhaps as good a Christmas present as I could have hoped for.

The Changes of the Season

19 Wednesday Dec 2018

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It feels like we are on the edge of change on many fronts, and that is only a partial reference to Brexit. The winter solstice is on Friday and as the days start to get longer again it is all change in the NFL as the playoffs near. We have had our last Thursday night game of the regular season, which will be wrapped up before the new year starts. Closer to home for this blog, with some terrible timing I was ice cold with my picks this weeks dropping to five points behind Dan’s Dad whilst Dan had another double digit total that pulled him to within four points of me. This change of method for Dan is possibly too late to win the whole competition but he could very easily catch me and it certainly feels like the blog will be going purple and gold in the new year. I’m mostly annoyed at myself though as I’m tinkering with a spreadsheet formula for making picks and if I had just listened to that I would have gone 11-5 and things would look very different.

So as the world (and possibly the blog colours) change it also feels like things have shifted in the league. None of this season’s three elite offences have really fired properly in the last couple of weeks. This is probably due to a combination of injuries and maybe some weather but only the New Orleans Saints won this week. The Chiefs at least won the week before but are now level with the late surging LA Chargers in the AFC West with 11-3 records whilst the LA Rams have lost two straight and have just signed free-agent running back CJ Anderson after Todd Gurley picked up a knock against the Eagles.

Speaking of which, don’t look now but through a combination of beating the Rams and the Cowboys getting shut out the Eagles now have an outside shot of making the playoffs, although they have to win out and hope results go their way. It will not be easy to beat the Houston Texans or a Washington team that are somehow not eliminated from the playoffs either thanks to grinding out a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

However, I should go back to the best teams for a moment as thanks to their ability to keep grinding out wins despite their offence falling back a bit the Saints are now the only team with twelve wins having prevailed in an entertaining game against the Carolina Panthers who lost another game and maybe should look at siting Cam Newton as he does not look right thanks to his injured shoulder.

More interestingly for a competitive postseason, not only have these three elite teams as I called them come back to the pack a little, but there are other teams who are rounding into form. Okay whoever actually comes out of the NFC East looks to be somewhat flawed, but the Chicago Bears won the NFC North for the first time since 2010 thanks to their win over the Packers and whilst Mitchell Turbisky doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence yet their defence certainly does. The Seattle Seahawks still have a game lead on the other wildcard contenders despite their loss to the 49ers on Sunday and facing them if they get through certainly won’t be easy. I’m withholding judgement on the Minnesota Vikings for another game in case the game against a bad road team isn’t a pre-cursor of things to come, but the offence certainly ran the ball against the Dolphins and if they play more like they could be a horrible game for any team they face.

In the AFC, the Houston Texans should not be underestimated with their 10-6 record but the Indianapolis Colts could give a team a nasty surprise with their combination of good offence and tough enough defence (shutting out any NFL offence is impressive, even though the Cowboys rank a surprising twenty-sixth by DVOA ). No one would fancy facing the Ravens’ mix of strong defence and ability to run the ball should they make it and the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots have enough muscle memory that no one will want to play them, even if there are strange things going on with both franchises. I’m sure that if you told Bill Belichick last week that his defence would limit the Steelers to seventeen points that he would have been happy but in further evidence that things are just not right with the Patriots this year they only scored ten points and actually lost the game. We’ve been here before with Tom Brady and the Patriots and I still maintain that I won’t believe it is over until it is over, but Brady is a forty-one year old quarterback so time has to be running out. That said, no one would be surprised if the Pats made another Super Bowl but it’s very possible they have already cost themselves home field advantage and\or a bye with their last two losses. I still don’t know what to make of the Tennessee Titans, other than that they were clearly offended by my terrible pick at the weekend as not only did they beat the New York Giants in the MetLife Stadium, but pitched a second shutout of the week!

For those of you who support teams like my Bengals who are well and truly out of the playoff races, don’t worry the blog goodbyes will start up following the last the week of the season. However, the Bengals did at least manage to halt their losing streak with a win over the Oakland Raiders. Joining the Bengals in the losing record but won their week fifteen game club were the Buffalo Bills, who have actually gone 3-2 over their last five games and snuck out a win against the Detroit Lions, the aforementioned San Francisco 49ers, and the Cleveland Browns who are already above the Bengals in the AFC North and just imagine what they might have done this season if you look at their record since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were fired.

We are rapidly approaching the playoffs and I am sad that the Bengals won’t make it, but I’m very much looking forward to what should be some cracking makes. Now, I have to get my newsletter sorted so I can start on my Christmas coaching tape present to myself, namely JJ Watt.

We have to savour the football we have left as it won’t be here for very much longer!

The Contenders, the Changes, and the TWFSafties!!

12 Wednesday Dec 2018

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It’s getting to that time of the season where the games take on added significance through context as whilst each game is still one sixteenth of a team’s season, we are now seeing teams fall out the hunt of the playoffs and the consequences are pretty immediate. Gone are the days when teams waited until the Monday following the final game of the season to make their coaching changes and in fact some are even trying to spark a late season run, so with all that in mind let’s take stock of the week fourteen games and what’s been going on around the league. Oh yes, and I have two safeties for you luck people as well!

In the AFC, three of the division leaders lost with the New England Patriots losing in Miami in something that is fast becoming an unwanted tradition for the Patriots. The Pats’ coaching staff might have outsmarted themselves by having Rob Gronkowski on the field to defend an unlikely Hail Mary from Ryan Tannehill (who was nursing an ankle injury as well as only recently coming back from a shoulder injury) but what they came up with was still a fantastically exciting play that will be part of every season roundup.  The best thing to do if you somehow haven’t seen it, or missed Dan writing about it is to have a look at the highlights here. Whilst the Patriots should sail into the playoffs still, they look to be settling into the number two seed which they will have to hope is not too costly if the Chiefs continue their current streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers saw their hopes of taking the Raiders into overtime dashed when their kicker Chris Boswell slipped on his last second field goal attempt and missed for the second time that game. The bigger question is what took them so long to get Ben Roethlisberger back into the game in the second half once his rib injury had been cleared as he was seen stood on the sidelines whilst Josh Dobbs struggled to do much as his replacement. As for AFC South, the Houston Texans had their nine game winning streak ended by an Indianapolis Colts team looking to bounce back from their loss to the Jaguars and hoping to stay in contention for the playoffs.

The Colts are one of five AFC teams with seven wins trying to make said playoffs. The Dolphins are still in the mix, although they could just as easily finish eight and eight but given the injuries they have suffered Adam Gase has pulled off another impressive coaching job to keep them in contention. It feels like whatever happens in Miami they need to find a quarterback who can play effectively who is not as prone to injury as Tannehill. The Ravens remain on seven wins thanks to their narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they were at least competitive and it looks like the competition for the AFC North will go down to the wire and perhaps the Bengals will have one last say in events in week seventeen when they face the Steelers. I should point out that Patrick Mahomes threw a no look pass and an impossible across the body throw on fourth and nine that very few other quarterbacks could plausably attempt and likely only Aaron Rodgers could carry off. The Tennessee Titans literally ran out winners in their game against the Jacksonville Jaguars with Derrick Henry amassing two hundred and forty-three yards and an amazing ninety-nine yard touchdown that featured three separate stiff arms as he rumbled the length of the field.

These five teams with seven wins are involved in two interconnected races, for whilst the Ravens and Steelers are duking it out for the AFC North, all look to be competing for one last wildcard spot as with a three game lead and still in with a chance of winning the AFC West – the LA Chargers should make the playoffs having already hit the magical ten win total with three games left. They did enough to beat the Bengals without extending themselves in a game that featured one of my worst picks of the year.

On the NFC side of the league, three out of the four division leaders won with the Dallas Cowboys riding their luck in overtime to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in a game that was marred by more officiating controversies. The Chicago Bears won a defensive game with the LA Rams that featured lots of interceptions and provoked questions about the Rams ability to function in the cold. It’s an easy narrative to grab but we shall have to see if over more games if it is genuinely a thing. However, it’s not often that we have seen Sean McVay struggle and I’m excited to see how this team does in their second trip to the playoffs under this regime. Meanwhile the New Orleans Saints got back to winning ways with a comfortable win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and remain in contention for the number one seed in the NFC.

It seems likely that we know the winner of each division of the NFC and like in the AFC, there is a clear contender for the first wildcard place as with their convincing win over the Minnesota Vikings, the Seattle Seahawks have a two game lead onver any other challenger.

The Vikings are one of four teams with six wins and so need to make a push in these last three games if they are to claim the last wildcard place. As a team with a high profile quarterback free-agent and an offence that hasn’t quite come together it is perhaps not a surprise that the Vikings have let go their offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, but it is a blow to the coordinator who was being quoted as a likely head coaching candidate before the season. There is however, a big difference between being the quarterback coach for a Super Bowl winning team and being the offensive coordinator, yet alone a head coach. I do idly wonder whether DeFilippo might find a quick rehire to lend a hand in Philadelphia given the struggles they have had on offence after the brain drain of the offseason, although the lack of deep threat doesn’t help either. Having lost to the Cowboys it feels like the Eagles won’t win the division, although technically it is still possible, but they have six wins and are one of the three teams that I think have actual shot at making the playoffs. Things are not exactly looking great for the Carolina Panthers as they lost on the road to the Cleveland Browns and there’s talks of issues with Cam Newton’s shoulder. The Panthers have also had changes in coaching staff, this time on the defensive time but having now lost five straight games they are running out of time to turn things round. I suspect it is already too late for six win Washington who at least scored some points when they brought on recently signed quarterback Josh Johnson, but when you lose to the New York Giants this badly it is a sign of a team who needs to rethink their approach.

That pretty much covers all the teams in the playoff race, but I thought I should mention the Green Bay Packers because of the news that’s surrounding them. Having fired Mike McCarthy last week they got back to winning ways against woeful Falcons and now stand at 5-7-1. It will be interesting to see how they try to retool on the fly given the age of Aaron Rodgers, and it was interesting that long-time coach Winston Moss tweeted about, ‘…Find somebody that is going to hold #12 and everybody in this building to a #LombardiStandard!…’ shortly after McCarthy was let go. The team may have bounced back with a win this week but after such a period of stability who can foresee how the offseason will go with the recently hired GM and his search for a new coach?

Finally, or at least the last thing before I finish up with the week fourteen safeties, I have to comment on one the teams whose major effect on the playoffs could well be that win against the Steelers this week. On Monday the Raiders let go of general manager Reggie McKenzie, which possibly wasn’t a surprise given that the Raiders have traded away such draft picks as Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. The power dynamic for the Raiders obviously shifted when they handed Jon Gruden a ten-year $100 million contract and they will now have to find someone to work closely with Gruden but whoever they hire won’t have the power of a usual GM so only time will tell whether this will ultimately result in a more competitive team. However it works out, it is pretty clear that Gruden is central to the Raiders’ plan and the defining factor in the success of the team is the design and execution of Gruden’s plan by Gruden. There won’t be much room to hide whatever the result.

So we had two safeties this week and I got lucky enough to pick both games to watch anyway. The first took place in the Thursday night game and re-affirms the importance of special teams play when the Titans’ Cameron Batson muffed the catch and recovered the ball to be tackled into the end zone. In one play the Jaguars scored two points and got the ball back, they just failed to capitalise on that chance. The second took place early in the third quarter and is the kind of thing that drives an offensive coordinator round the bend as on second and fifteen on their own eight yard line Jared Goff took the snap and drifted back into the end zone where Eddie Goldman just beat Akiem Hicks to the sack and the safety. It’s the kind of play where situational awareness is so important and there is so much for a quarterback to learn so I don’t want to judge Goff too harshly but it makes you appreciate the Tom Brady or Drew Brees who stilllmake mistakes and take sacks but you think would have got rid of the ball in that situation. Still, the important thing is that the quarterback got sacked for points because that is what should happen to the glory hunters every now and again to keep them grounded. Let’s hope for some more next week and for those counting these were the ninth and tenth safeties of the season.

AAF: Texans Offence

02 Sunday Dec 2018

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So having written in the week that I hadn’t paid enough attention to the Houston Texans given their current eight game win streak and place atop the AFC South, I thought I would make them the focus of this week’s amateur adventures in film. I was obviously tempted to watch their defence given how well JJ Watt is playing, but the bigger unknown for me was what they were doing on offence so that is the tape I watched, although this also led me to watch a second team putting up a lot of points against the Titans’ defence.

So much like the Colts offence I watched last week, the Texans used a lot of 11 personnel in a shotgun formation and 12 personnel in singleback formation with the quarterback under centre. However, the execution was pretty different and part of that is due to the difference in quality between the two lines. It wasn’t that the Texans’ o-line would get no push, and they were also pulling offensive linemen and tight ends in the running game like the Colts would, but they were not as effective or efficient in-between the tackles. The Texans also have a two back rotation and the real effective running attack was when Lamar Miller attacked the edges of the defence. He only had to escape two would be tacklers on the run that went ninety-seven yards for a touchdown as once he’d got past the linebacker and safety it was foot race to the end zone, but even if you take out that run he still averaged 5.9 yards on eleven carries. What made the Texans run game so effective was the combination of this production from Miller with the read-option threat of Deshaun Watson who also had seventy yards on nine carries. One of those was a scramble where the defence opened up before Watson who was able to use his athleticism to exploit a seam in the defence. The other back who saw continued usage, Alfred Blue, was not as effective in the run game as he tended to run between the tackles but he was also used as a slot receiver close to the line as part of empty backfield looks and did catch a pass for thirteen yards as well as lead blocking for Lamar Miller on a play.

If that was the source of the Texans success running the ball, the word I would use to describe their passing game was efficient with a few deep shots thrown in, but in the main Watson was not asked to drop back and make complex reads of the defence. Often the ball would come out quickly for receivers who had been schemed open, or for short passes over the middle. Still, Watson completed nineteen of his twenty four passes for two hundred and ten yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Yes he gave up four sacks where on occasion you might want him to throw the ball away, but with his athleticism you can understand why he is confident in his ability to escape the rush and on one play he actually managed to duck under an attempted sack and scramble for a gain. The other nice thing was that I didn’t see Watson taking the kind of shots that earlier in the season meant he had to play games with broken ribs and for one game saw him take a bus to a road game rather than fly. It should also be pointed out that Watson distributed the ball nicely, with nine separate players catching a pass.

In terms of receivers the Texans used Keke Coutee a lot in the slot and he could be seen running a lot of jet motion although the Texans didn’t actually ask him to run the ball. The obvious stand out is still DeAndre Hopkins who had a relatively quiet game, although when you generate two hundred and eighty-one yards on the ground that will happen, but is still an incredibly dynamic player whilst Demaryius Thomas is playing as a solid complement and caught both of Deshaun Watson’s touchdown passes.

Finally, as I mentioned earlier, the Texans would often have two tight-ends on the field with Ryan Griffinin leading the way in terms of receiving yards, but him and Jordan Thomas spent a lot of time on the field with Thomas often moving in motion and pulling to block a lot. Meanwhile Jordan Akins played more of a H-back role as line up and lined a full back a number of times as well as playing tight end.

I would say that you can still tell the Deshaun Watson is a young quarterback, but the offence has clearly developed over the season and Watson was working his way back from a nasty knee injury so it makes sense that it would take some time to get back to his best. The form he had last season before the injury was never going to be sustainable in the long term, but this offence has been effective although Watson still takes unnecessary sacks at times and can be flustered in the pocket, but with time and and an improved offensive line the sky is the limit for this team in the near future.

What Happens Next?

28 Wednesday Nov 2018

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Things managed to get worse for the Bengals this weekend and I will be writing about that, but I thought I would zip round the league first before letting rip to give those who don’t wish to indulge my reaction to the problems besetting the orange and black something to read.

There weren’t as many as in the previous week, but the NFL still managed to have four games separated by a field goal and a couple of upsets.

I’m going to start with a game I didn’t see, but on Monday night the Houston Texans won their eighth straight game to remain two games clear at the top of the AFC South. I suspect they are possibly the division leader I have written about the least this season and I will need to watch them again soon to get a better idea of what the transformation looks like. The obvious thing might be to take a look at their top five defence by DVOA that has JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney fit and combining for eighteen and a half sacks, but they are also getting enough out of an offence ranked twenty-first by DVOA to win and with them finding a way to run the ball and win with Deshaun Watson back at quarterback that side of the ball might be the more interesting study. Still, they have definitely established themselves as team worthy of more attention and I hope this paragraph doesn’t jinx them!

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a somewhat less successful weekend, losing on the road to the Denver Broncos. It feels like at least once a season the Steelers lose a game on the road they shouldn’t and as much as I admire what Mike Tomlin achieves in Pittsburgh this could once again lose them a shot of a playoff bye and home advantage later in the playoffs. They have a big game next week against the LA Chargers who got themselves back on track with a big win over the Arizona Cardinals and this meeting of AFC teams looks like it will be one of the highlights of the week thirteen.

With the Rams and Chiefs on their bye week, the New Orleans Saints were the only one of the top tier teams (according to me) in action in week twelve and ran out convincing winners in the evening Thanksgiving game against the Atlanta Falcon who will have to regroup in the offseason having been broken by injury. The New England Patriots got a healthy enough to win over the New York Jets but even though Rob Gronkowski returned to the field, he does not seem to be the same dominant tight end of previous years. Of their five remaining opponents the Patriots only have to face two with winning records and I will be very interested to see how they do hosting the Vikings next week and when they travel to Pittsburgh in week fifteen. I should also mention that the Patriots are yet to play the Dolphins in Miami where the Pats have lost in four out of the last five visits.

The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions comfortably despite not being able to start Mitchell Trubisky and that leaves us with the NFC East as the only division that I haven’t discussed the division leaders. With Washington falling to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and the Eagles scraping a win over the New York Giants on Sunday things remain tight in the east. The Cowboys have managed to get themselves equal to Washington but have the daunting task of hosting the Saints this Thursday night, whilst Washington and Philadelphia have the first of their two games against each other this weekend. Given the injuries to both Washington and Philadelphia most people seem to think the momentum is with the Cowboys right now and it certainly seems like the contest is going to go down to the wire in terms of winning the division. It is also worth noting that whilst the arguments about value are still valid, the Cowboys trade for Amari Cooper does appear to be making a difference and his breakaway touchdowns was pretty much the difference between them and Washington on Thursday.

This is your two game warning before I dig into the mess that is the Bengals right now.

The two games on Sunday I enjoyed watching were the Seattle Seahawks winning out over the Carolina Panthers despite the Panthers gaining well over double the amount of yards on the ground and seemingly moving the ball with more ease. However, costly failures in the red zone and some interesting decisions to go for it on fourth down led the Panthers to their third straight loss. I don’t know if a division game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the right situation to try to turn things round, but they really need to get a win thus week if they want to stay in the race for a wildcard place.

Finally, whilst looking good for stretches of the Packers’ game against the Minnesota Vikings, it appears that Aaron Rodgers might be mortal after all. I would suggest the problem is more that the offence he has been given doesn’t seem to have evolved under Mike McCarthy in recent years despite the developments round the league, but after a good start that saw the Packers go 14-7 up at the start of the second quarter, they failed to score again until near the end of the fourth quarter and ultimately fell 17-24. At 4-6-1 the playoffs are not completely out of reach but they would have to run the table and hope to get lucky. The big sticking point in the final five games that jumps out on the schedule is their visit to Chicago in week fifteen, especially as the Packers have gone 0-6 on the road.

Okay, so here we go. Final warning.

So the Bengals season is hanging by a thread and only the most optimistic of super fans can even contemplate things turning around. Not only did the Bengals lose the battle of Ohio to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, but they lost Andy Dalton to thumb injury for the rest of the season. Now as it happens Jeff Driskell is pretty good as backup quarterbacks go and it’s not as if the Bengals were competing for the Super Bowl, but there are real problems with this team which stretch further than the injury list. The offence still ranks sixteenth despite the injuries that have hampered this side of the ball but the defence have been woeful all season. The Bengals have already fired one defensive co-ordinator and there are now questions yet again about whether it is time for Marvin Lewis to step aside. Now I do think it is time for this to happen, in fact it might have been time a couple of seasons ago but I understand the reluctance to do so and it does make me nervous. Marvin Lewis took a perennially underachieving team and made them respectable, frequently one of the most talented rosters in the league who went to the playoffs five seasons in a row between 2011-15 but this looks to be the third season that the Bengals miss out and something has to change. However, as much I would like to see an inventive offensive minded coach take over the franchise as that seems to be what is required to win with the current set of rules, replacing Lewis worries me because of the tendency for Mike Brown to hire people he knows and the rumours that Hue Jackson is a potential candidate that surfaced over the weekend.

Yes Hue Jackson, who has a 11-44-1 overall record and who just went 3-36-1 with the Cleveland Browns. Now I’m not necessarily saying he’s a bad coach, he did great things with the Bengals’ offence as a coordinator before he left for Cleveland, but I’ve seen nothing that makes me think that as a head coach he could turn things round. Look at how the Browns have been doing in recent weeks. Not to mention the shots that Baker Mayfield has been taking both on the field and after the game in the press. There is still a lot of talent on this roster, and it might just need a new voice to turn things round or it could need more of a re-build but who knows if the Bengals infrastructure above the head coach can facilitate such efforts. I have no idea what happens next and that’s what makes me nervous. So much of an NFL franchise’s success lies in getting the behind the scenes right to get the right coach with the roster at the right moment, and yes with the right quarterback. It appears that as Bengals fans, we live in interesting times….

Anyway, I shall leave you with a comment from Dan as we were discussing quarterbacks after his misguided shot at the red rifle yesterday.

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