Monthly Archives: September 2022

Competition Thursday: 2022 Week Four

29 Thursday Sep 2022

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So my lead isn’t quite as big as Dan thought when recording the podcast and I am pretty happy with how things are going, but it is very early for Dan to be speculating on the return of the black and orange to the social media/podcast imagery.

Meanwhile, there is the minor matter of the fifth TWF Bowl taking place tonight.

Gee:Week 3:  9 – 7Overall:  26 -22
RussWeek 3:  7 – 9Overall:  19 – 29
Dan:Week 3:  6 – 1Overall:  19 – 29

Dolphins @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals got back to winning ways last week against the Jets last week and debut their alternate helmets in the snow tiger look white out game. They welcome the unbeaten Dolphins, who are coming to town with a lot of questions due to injury, not least to Tua who is dealing with back issues following a big hit in the first half of last week’s game. I can see the Bengals winning this one, but the speed of the Dolphins offence concerns me a lot so there is just no way I’m laying an extra half point in this one when I can very easily see the Dolphins finishing the contest 4-0. I will be very happy to be proved wrong on this one..

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Survivor Competition

I continue to be a curse for teams and stand at a mighty three eliminations already this season and so I’m beginning to wonder if I can run the table in losses, but I’ll still try to keep things going with wins. Dan did better with the choice of the Ravens and so opens up a two point lead. I’m interested in his faith in the Cowboys going against Washington, but this is a straight pick so I can understand it, whilst I’m going with the Packers at home, welcoming a dysfunctional Patriots team with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback. If it goes wrong, Pats fans you are welcome.

Current Score

Gee: 0
Dan: 2

Week 4 Selection:

Gee:     Packers
Dan:    Cowboys

Bold Prediction of the Week

I was just about allowed to go for the Texans to be within six of the Chargers, which may be bolder than I think Dan was allowing but with the Chargers missing key players on either side of the ball we shall see.

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2022 Week Three Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2022

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So we all picked the Steelers getting that many points and saw it lose, even though having watched the game I feel with a couple of very possible different breaks the Steelers could very easily have covered against the Browns so I certainly don’t feel like we were wrong. Still, our attention turns to the rest of the week’s games and there’s a few games where the picks are tricky but plenty I’m curious about.

I will say that I appear to have a lot of road teams this week, but I try to pick based on the numbers and what I think of the matchup so let’s see how week three goes.

Early Games:

There’s a few high lines in the early slate of games, but I think the Bills visiting the Dolphins will be closer than the line thinks despite the Bills’ hot start to the season, whilst I think the opposite of the Colts hosting the Chiefs. I’m curious about the results between the Ravens visiting the Patriots and properly concerned about the Bengals visiting the Jets.

I think the other game from the Bengals visiting the Jets that I will be watching from this group is the Texans at Bears as I’m still curious about both teams, and one of the first missions for me during the early part of the season is to get every non-AFC North team watched once as I’ll see plenty of the Browns, Ravens and Steelers anyway.

Texans @ Bears (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Raiders @ Titans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Colts (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cheifs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Ravens @ Patriots (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Bengals @ Jets (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Late Games:

I’m genuinely surprised about the line between the Chargers and the Jaguars as between the issues the Chargers had had one the offensive line and the improved competence the Jaguars have shown, I feel like this will be a closer game than the points suggests. The consensus of lines I’m seeing online agrees with me so while I do expect the Chargers to win, I like the Jaguars to be within a touchdown. I’ve gone back and forth on the Rams and Cardinals and could have easily gone with the Cardinals at home with them being that half point over the field goal, but I have a number going the other way so I’m nervously going with the Rams.

The other game I am watching this week is the Packers at Buccaneers, where I’m backing the Packers to keep moving on from their bad opening week loss and the fact that the Tom Brady weirdness is continuing, and they are without Mike Evans this week through suspension. The pick does make me nervous but I’m really looking forward to watching both teams for the first time this season.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Falcons @ Seahawks (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

49ers @ Broncos (+1.5)

The Broncos have got off to a rough start, whilst perversely the loss of their starting quarterback Trey Lance perhaps raises the floor of the 49ers. Whilst the Broncos offence is still looking disjointed and rookie head coach Nathanial Hackett is making questionable decisions I’m going to back the 49ers on the road in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Monday Night Football

Cowboys @ Giants (-2.5)

I hated picking this game so much. I like the start the Giants have had to the season, and I think they are beginning to build something, but it is the start of a very big job given how bad they have been in recent seasons. The Cowboys are in a worse position than I was expecting this season thanks to the Dak Prescott injury, but Cooper Rush got the job done running the offence last week, ably helped by the Bengals awful start to the season and inability to cope with Micah Parsons’ pass rush. My instinct and heart is with the Giants, and I can definitely see them winning this game, but the numbers are saying Cowboys for the cover and whilst its early to have the numbers overrule my head, particularly as I’d really like to be getting three, I’m going to trust the numbers for now…

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2022 Week Three

22 Thursday Sep 2022

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Having struggled to set into the early part of the season I’m actually getting a Competition Thursday post up for the first time in the 2022 season.

Dan and I kept pace with each other in week twp, whilst Russ dropped behind Dan. It is always a tricky week to get week two picks right as you try not to overreact to the week one results but also not ignore them.

Gee:Week 2:  7 – 9Overall:  17 – 15
Dan:Week 2:  7 – 9Overall:  13 – 19
RussWeek 2:  5 – 11Overall:  12 – 20

Steelers @ Browns (-5.5)

We have an AFC North bruising affair that sees the Steelers and Browns vying for an early lead in the division ahead of the weekend’s games. I saw a sign on Twitter of someone wondering if both teams could lose tonight, which I have some sympathy with as a Bengals fan, although it is well know how fond I am of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. I have to say, following a 1-1 start to the season where the Steelers have finished both games within three points of their opponent I’m surprised at the size of this line. I am interested to get a first look at the Browns, but I confess to being more than a little biased. Still, the numbers are backing my hunches and whilst I wouldn’t go as far as predicting a Steelers win, I certainly think they’ll keep the game within six.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Survivor Competition

I’m having a terrible start to the season as I was eliminated for a second time as well as seeing the Bengals fall to 0-2. Dan’s theory of backing Aaron Rodgers to continue his ownership of the Bears saw him get off the mark in week two and this week he’s backing the Ravens to beat the Patriots on the Road. I’m going for as sure a thing as I can think of this week, so I’m hoping I don’t jinx the Chiefs as they take on the winless Colts.

Current Score

Gee: 0
Dan: 1

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:     Chiefs @ Colts
Dan:    Ravens @ Patriots

Bold Prediction of the Week

After several minutes of squirming, having options refused as not qualifying according to Dan or simply not believable to me, I settled on the Jaguars to cover against the Chargers, which according to the ESPN line is to stay within eight points. I also thing that could be a sneaky good game given the Jaguars start to the season and the injuries to the offensive line of what has looked pretty good Chargers team.

2022 Week Two Picks

18 Sunday Sep 2022

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I had a good start to the picks competition in week one, although with another seventeen weeks to go we very much know that this is a marathon and not a sprint so definitely not going to over react, but it was a nice salve after the Bengals losing start to the season. My week two has got off to a bad start as I second guessed myself and went with the Chiefs for Thursday night because I was laying half a point less than the consensus, when my original instinct was to back the Chargers so I shall try to remember that as I go through the rest of the week.

Gee:Week 1:  10 – 6 
RussWeek 1:  7 – 9 
Dan:Week 1:  6 – 10 

Survivor Competition

It is good that Dan and I have an ongoing points system for our survivor competition as we would have both fallen in the first week. I’m slightly nervously putting my faith in Burrow not to fall to 0-2 against a very injured Cowboys team, whilst Dan is clearly working on the theory that as Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears that he would put his faith in that.

Current Score

Gee: 0
Dan: 0

Week 2 Selection:

Gee:    Bengals
Dan:    Packers

Bold Prediction of the Week

Those of you who heard the podcast would know that this is a heart more than head based pick, but that still doesn’t stop me from going for the Jets to beat the Browns this week.

Early Games:

The pick of the early games for me is the Buccaneers visiting the Saints and whether Tom Brady can break the regular season hoodoo the Saints have over him so that’s the one I will be watching. That said, we’re still at the stage of the season where there is a lot to be learned from most games.

Jets @ Browns (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jets
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Washington @ Lions (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Buccaneers @ Saints (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Panthers @ Giants (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Patriots @ Steelers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Colts @ Jaguars (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Falcons @ Rams (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Late Games:

The closest line in the late games is the Cardinals trying to recover from their horrible opening day loss to the Chiefs against the Raiders, but it feels like the 49ers are laying a lot of points against the Seahawks. I just hope the Bengals come out of Jerry’s world with a win against the Cowboy with Micah Parsons not wreaking too much havoc amongst the rebuilding offensive line.

Seahawks @ 49ers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Bengals @ Cowboys (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Texans @ Broncos (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Cardinals @ Raiders (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:       Raiders

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Packers (-9.5)

This is a lot of points for the Packers to be laying given how their offence looked in week one and given Aaron Rodgers’s record against the Bears it is hard to look past them for a win, but I do feel like the Bears could be more competitive than nine points. It will at least give us a chance to see how the Bears look in something vaguely like normal conditions.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Monday Night Football

We have two Monday night games, but interesting they overlap each other, which I’m not entirely sure about. The Bills looked very good opening the season against the Rams ten days ago, and I like them to beat the Titans, but even though the Titans lost to the Giants last week ,this seems like a lot of points to lay and I do think the Giants are going to be more competitive this season under Brian Daboll.

My game selected by Dan to watch this week is the Vikings at Eagles and I’m looking forward to seeing the new Vikings offence under Kevin ‘Connell as well as  the combination between Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown for the Eagles. I’m leaning against the numbers as I have a feeling the Vikings are a more complete team, and they are a significant percentage better than the Eagles by overall DVOA percentage.

Titans @ Bills (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Vikings @ Eagles (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2022 Week One Picks

11 Sunday Sep 2022

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It has been a surreal few days in the UK and with a lot going on personally our picks saw both Dan and I back the Bills in Thursday night’s season opener against the Rams and be proved correct. We have also had Russ join the group this seasons so I’ll bring his pick totals starting next Thursday and we’ll see how things go.

Survivor Competition

It is interesting that both Dan I went for road teams this week as Dan is backing the Broncos in Seattle whilst I am backing the Colts against the Texans. Let’s see if one of us has got our early predictions really out of whack.

Week 1 Selection:

Gee:    Colts
Dan:    Broncos

Bold Prediction of the Week

There’s a reason my bold prediction is bold this week, in that for some reason I decided to back the Falcons to keep the game within six points on the podcast. The numbers are against me in as is my actual pick below, but this is an accidental hedge I suppose.

Early Games:

I will be watching the Bengals welcoming the Steelers, nervous about the line but hopeful to win, and will also be watching the Jaguars visit Washington as I want to see what new head coach Doug Peterson has cooked up for Trevor Lawrence. I could just as easily be watching the Browns visiting the Panthers in the Baker Mayfield revenge game or any one of the others given there’s things to discover about every team in week one.

Saints @ Falcons (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

49ers @ Bears (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Lions (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

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Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Ravens @ Jets (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Jaguars @ Washington (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Browns @ Panthers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Colts @ Texans (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Late Games:

I think the best matchups are the Packers at the Vikings and Raiders at the Chargers – although the other two games have plenty to keep the interest in the later slot.

Giants @ Titans (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Packers @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Chiefs @ Cardinals (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Sunday Night Football:

This is a weird game that I really struggled to call as I don’t like the off-season the Bucs’ offence had at all between injury and the situation with Tom Brady, but the Cowboys have to have taken a step backwards and at this early part of the season I’m simply grabbing the points at home and hoping for the best.

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Monday Night Football

A lot of the drama around this game is Russel Wilson’s return to Seattle, not to mention what Nathaniel Hackett has been cooking up for the Broncos new quarterback so this was the final full game I’ll be watching..

Broncos @ Seahawks (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos