Monthly Archives: September 2016

The End of Streaks

29 Thursday Sep 2016

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It was a strange week three that saw many a game going differently to how people expected, and saw both Dan and I get murdered on our picks.

I wrote before making my picks last week that I expected more teams to get their first loss or win than continue their streaks, but it seems I picked all of the wrong ones and even in the games where I made the right choice, those choices were hardly convincing.

  • One of the unbeaten Texans and Patriots had to lose their first game, but whilst I acknowledged that Bill Belichick could win this game, I was not expecting the Patriots to manage a 27-0 win over the Texans.
  • The Cardinals went to Buffalo and lost, giving them a losing record and granting the Bills their first win of the season and resulting in the usual Rex Ryan bravado about facing the Patriots this week.
  • The Broncos went to 3-0 with an impressive win in Cincinnati where the Bengals defence stacked the box and dared Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, which he promptly did.
  • Even when I picked the Dolphins to beat the winless Browns in Miami and get their first win of the season, they needed overtime to do it and were nowhere near the ten point lead I needed for my pick to come through.
  • I expected the Viking to keep the game close against the Panthers, but instead ran out with a victory to remain unbeaten despite their injury troubles.
  • I didn’t see Washington beating a Giants team that were off to a great start, and yet they managed it whilst Odell Beckham grabbed headlines with another emotional outburst. This time the talented receiver lost a fight to a field goal net on the Giant’s side-line.
  • The Ravens went down to Jacksonville to face a desperate Jaguars team who were not desperate enough to avoid going 0-3, whilst the Ravens have the quietest unbeaten record in the league.
  • The Colts were one of only three games featuring a 2-0 or 0-2 record that I picked correctly, when they managed to get a win over the visiting Chargers who now have a perfect record of played three, lost three starters for the season to injury.
  • The Eagles put pay to the Steelers unbeaten record and kept their own, making the hype surrounding Carson Wentz even greater. I am so impressed with the Eagles coaching staff and the turnaround they have made so far, I’m really looking forward to seeing how this team develop over the rest of the season.
  • The Bears continued to lose, giving me my only other totally correct pick of week two where I got it right and the game went how I expected.
  • Finally, I was tempted into picking the Falcons because of an extra half point the Saints were giving up, but it turns out that the Falcons didn’t need these points as they ran out easy winners in a game of a lot of points.

Now, the wonderful thing about the NFL is that it is doing a sterling job of giving us talking points and excitement over the weekends, but boy is it making predicting what is going to happen difficult.

Still it is still early, and even though I will be writing my quarter poll summary in a couple of weeks, there are very few teams that should be truly despondent. However, whilst the Cleveland Browns were never likely to be looking for anything other than progress, and to their credit they are playing tough for the Hue Jackson in his first year, the Bears, Saints, and Jaguars are all in trouble. Only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 when the playoff format was expanded to its current format. The Bears were expected to be rebuilding this year even if the injuries have made things worse than I was expecting, but the Jaguars were hoping to make the next step and push for the playoffs whilst the Saints have a Super Bowl winning quarterback who they have failed to surround with enough talent to push as far as they would expect.

The Jaguars are a particular disappointment as they head over to London to host the Colts this week, and already people are wondering if the London game is going to cost another head coach his job. Despite the warm feelings that everyone who has ever dealt with Gus Bradley seems to have, it is hard to see the Jaguars owner putting up with these results for much longer, and the Jaguars will need to turn things round quickly if Bradley is to keep his job past the end of the season.

And continuing the theme of disappointment, the big news of the last twenty-four hours is that JJ Watt has been placed on injured reserve as he having more problems with his back, and could possibly be gone for the season. I’ll write a little more about this over the weekend as I was already going through the coaching tape of Watt vs the Patriots, but hopefully he can make it all the way back as he is one of my favourite players to watch, but back injuries are hard ones to return from and people who’ve had such problems often say that they never felt the same.

The week five games look to offer plenty of excitement and intrigue, but already the attrition has really started to affect some teams, and it is an all too prescient reminder of how tough a game American Football is. I never want to see a player injured, but I will confess that part of me is curious to see what the Patriots would do if they were forced to play Julian Edelman as their quarterback.

Still, it is time to start looking at this week’s games, starting with tonight’s game that pits Dan’s Dolphins on the road against my beloved Bengals.

Our records are nothing to shout home about, particularly after our disastrous previous week, but I did manage to maintain my three point lead:

Gee:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   21-27
Dan:       Week 3   5-11                     Overall   18-30

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Bengals lost their first home game of the season, in what has been a tricky open to the season, but if they can get back to 2-2 they can still hope to make a push for the playoffs. It appears that Tyler Eifert is not going to make it back for the game, but Vontaze Burfict comes off suspension and is likely to help the Bengals defence straight away. I think the Browns are going to give teams a tough game at the moment so I’m not reading too much into last week’s result for the Dolphins, but an overtime game before a short week road game is not the best prep, and I’m hopeful that the Bengals can win and hopefully find some rhythm on offence. For one game only I’m borrowing from Dan and picking blindly based on my fandom.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

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AAF: Carson Wentz

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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So I thought I would take a closer look at Carson Wentz this week given that he has led the Eagles to a 2-0 stretch.

I’ve heard several people I respect break down what has been working for Wentz, but I will try to base this only on what I was able to see on tape for myself, but I suspect it will sound similar.

In a 29-14 road victory over the Chicago Bears, Wentz’s number did not look spectacular as he threw for a mere one hundred and ninety yards on twenty-one completion from thirty-four attempts with one touchdown and no interceptions, but there was much more going on than these numbers might suggest.

For starters, at the beginning of the game, in his first regular season road game, Wentz started his opening drive with a series of empty backfield passing plays. He completed the majority of them with quick throws that allowed him to quickly select a receiver and make the pass. However, it has to be said that he was clearly in complete control of the offence, certainly appearing to make adjustments and looking like a quarterback who has been playing in the NFL for years.

It has to be said that it did not look like he was not being asked to go through complex progressions, seemingly work with fairly straight forward reads and a fair amount of play action passes, but this looked to be a feature of good coaching. It is in fact to head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich’s credit that they have schemed so well for their young quarterback. He was not being asked to do much more than three or five step drop passes, or work from shotgun, but he was in clear command of what he was being asked to do.

I can’t say that his arm amazed you with the throws he made, but to be honest all the talk of cannons for arms seems to be overdone when evaluating quarterbacks and despite one hopping a couple of passes under pressure, there were no problems for Wentz in delivery catchable balls. In fact there were at least two drops I noted, one of which really should have been a touchdown to Jordan Mathews as the pass was dropped in nicely as he ran into the end zone. My only real concerns were that Wentz took a couple of unnecessary hits on scrambles, which I’m sure his coaches will want him to protect himself from, and that the offence was not terribly efficient in the red zone, only getting three field goals in the first half.

All in all though, Carson Wentz looks like he could turn himself into a very good NFL quarterback, and it really is very impressive to see him in such control of the offence so early in his career. The big tests are yet to come, starting this evening against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he certainly has done pretty much as well as you could have asked of a rookie quarterback thrown into the starting line-up straight away.

Week 3 Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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I feel like the real trick with this week’s picks is not to over react and have all the teams who are either 2-0 or 0-2 continuing their winning or losing streak, as the more common result is likely to be a first win or loss, but whether I stick to that as I go through each game individually remains to be seen.

Cardinals @ Bills(+4.5)

The first game already shows the problem with my opening paragraph as the Bill have simply been bad, and given the difficulties they had with pass defence, I can’t see them being effective at slowing down the Cardinals offence and Bruce Arian’s vertical attack, nor being able to move the ball consistently on an opportunistic defence and so I see this as being a fairly straight forward win for the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Broncos @ Bengals (-2.5)

The season doesn’t get any easier for the Bengals as their first home game of the season sees them welcome the Super Bowl champions. That said, whilst the Broncos defence has been impressive, I’m not sure the Broncos have seen a defence of the standard of the Bengals, and with an inexperienced Trevor Siemian under centre on the road I’m backing the Bengals to get back to a winning record.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5)

Things just keep going from bad to worse for the Browns, and apart from the injuries to their quarterbacks, promising rookie receiver Cory Coleman broke his hand in practice, proving yet again that the Browns can’t have nice things. This line is somewhat eye watering, but with the Dolphins at the home and having mounted a comeback in the second half against the Patriots, I think that not only are they the more likely to get the first win for either team, but that they may well cover this spread as well.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This game gives me real pause, as all is not well with the Packers so far, with similar problems surfacing on offence as they faced last year. However, I think in their opening game at Lambeau Field they will get back to winning ways, but this is a lot of points. The injuries in the Lions’ defence worry me and although their offence has looked good so far this year, I am not sure about them going against a Packers defence that has impressed me despite the problems against the pass. I keep changing my mind on this one, but I think it could be a get right game for the Packers that in the end gets them the cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Raiders @ Titans (-1.5)

The Raiders are still a very up and down team with their offence currently ranked number one in the NFL by DVOA and the defence ranked thirty-second. They are travelling to a Titans team who got an unlikely win against a Lions team who had three touchdowns waved off for penalties. I’m not sold on the Titans as being good, but the Raiders don’t travel well either. I’m really not sure which way to go, but with head coach Jack Del Rio taking a bigger hand in the defence this week I’m nervously backing the Raiders on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (-6.5)

I think that the Panthers will run out winners in this game, but given how ineffective Adrian Peterson had been this season, I’m not sure how badly his loss will hurt a new look Vikings offence who still need to fix their offensive line issues. The Panthers defence are not really a team to do this against, but the Vikings defence will likely keep them in the game and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Washington @ Giants (-4.5)

I’m sort of going against my plan of picking here, but DC Grudens are not functioning well on offence, with quarterback Kirk Cousins playing inconsistently, and couple this with a defence that is not playing that well and I don’t see a lot of hope. The Giants may have built their defence through free agency, but it seems to be working and with a passing attack that seems a lot more balanced than last year, I think Eli Manning has the options to get the ball to receivers no matter what is going on between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Ravens @ Jaguars (+0.5)

The Ravens have got off to a good start to the season, but are quietly not a great road team under John Harbaugh who gave up twenty points to the Browns last week. They face a desperate Jaguars team down in Jacksonville, who will already be aware of how seldom 0-2 teams get to the playoffs and so if they are to rescue their season they have to win this game, even if it is early in the season for must win games.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Rams @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

The Rams are 1-1 despite not scoring a touchdown on offence yet this season. This week they travel down to Tampa Bay, where I expect Jameis Winston to bounce back from his terrible performance last week. I really don’t trust the Rams, and I think this is a game where they could be exposed.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

It is just possible that the Seahawks have a fatal flaw thanks to the combination of Marshawn Lynch retiring and the continued awfulness of their offensive line. I don’t exactly see them loosing this game, but I am not at all convinced that they will run out ten point winners over anyone. The 49ers are playing hard for Chip Kelly, and I see him keeping this one competitive even on another tough road trip.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Chargers @ Colts (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game. The Chargers are on the road in Indianapolis having lost Danny Woodhead last week after losing Keenan Allen in week one. Their defence is playing better than it was last year, but the injury bug keeps biting this team. The Colts have looked okay offensively thanks to Andrew Luck looking more like himself, but the offensive line still isn’t that great and they’ve now lost Dante Moncrief to a fractured shoulder blade. They have also struggled once more in rush defence. I’m reluctantly backing the Colts at home as it is hard to see a team with a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck going 0-3, but that’s not to say it won’t happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jets @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are not quite right on defence, and their offence fell short against a Texans’ defence that were looking very good until they played the Patriots on Thursday. I trust Andy Reid but I think they might have too many injuries at similar positions. That said, Arrowhead Stadium is a famously difficult place to visit and the Jets have injury concerns of their own in their very deep receiver group. I’m really not sure which way this could go, but I’m going to back the Jets as from what I have seen I believe that they are the better team even if this is a difficult spot.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Steelers @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Eagles have got off to a surprisingly good start with rookie Carson Wentz playing very well, but the Steelers are a completely different level of team to the Browns or Bears and so I think the Steelers run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Bears @ Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bears are really struggling, and with the number of injuries piling up to go alongside the problems they were already having even before Jay Cutler hurt his thumb, I think they are in for a long game against the Cowboys in Dallas. The line makes me slightly nervous, but at the end of the day I think the Cowboys are simply better equipped to win this game by a fair margin.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Falcons @ Saints (-3.5)

I really don’t have a handle on the Falcons, who are coming off a road win in Oakland to face a Saints team who at least managed to stop the Giants’ offence from running rampant last week. The problem for me is that I don’t have great hand on the Saints either, but their defence still scares me, and with the extra half point I’m going to pick the Falcons to cover, but I’m really not very confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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Houston Texan 0
New England Patriots 27

This is a slightly odd game to write up as it was so incredibly one sided, and even though I said when I picked the Texans that I could see the Patriots winning the game, I was not thinking with a result like this.

The Patriots dominated the Texans in all three phases of the game and so I will start with mention of the Patriots in special teams. One feature that has already been pretty prominent this season is the Patriot’s reaction to the new kick off rules, with them deliberately kicking the ball short of the end zone and backing their coverage team to tackle before the twenty-five yard line and so give them an advantage in field position. Add this to them regularly pining the Texans behind the twenty yard line by punting, and they had a decided advantage in special teams even before the Texans started fumbling their returns.

On offence the Patriots demonstrated that they don’t have a single game plan, but adjust to both their opponent and the strength of their team, and so with a rookie third string quarterback they went very run heavy whilst using stunts and extra linemen to control the Texan’s defensive front. This they did very effectively, and whilst they were not explosive on offence, they did enough. This is even more impressive when you find out that in the second quarter Jacoby Brissett sprained his thumb. The Patriots may have only generated one hundred and three yards of passing offence on eleven completions from nineteen attempts, but when you can get one hundred and eighty-five yards on the ground then this doesn’t matter.

The Texans defence was pretty ineffective, which JJ Watt kept remarkably quiet. It is hard to write too much about them in a game like this, they kept in control of the passing game, but that really wasn’t the focus of the Patriots offence. How they allowed the known to be mobile Brissett to run twenty-seven yards for a touchdown is a mystery, and they will be hoping that this was just a blip in the season and Watt’s problems were simply caused by a road game on a short week whilst still coming back from a back injury.

If the defensive problem for the Texans were possibly a blip, the offensive struggles are actually pretty worrying. The game plan did not work at all, with a surprising number of attempted runs on third down, and the Texans didn’t even make it into the Patriots half of the field until the third quarter. It didn’t seem that Brock Osweiler could drive the team in this game, and DeAndre Hopkins had to make some pretty spectacular catches to get his four catches for fifty-six yards. All too often Osweiler would throw to Lamar Miller or Ryan Griffin underneath, and he will have to improve greatly to justify his seventeen million dollar a year contract. It must also be worrying that Bill O’Brien was so outcoached on his side of the ball, but plenty of coordinators have failed against Bill Belichick.

The Patriots defence really had the number of the Texans all game, and whilst there was no one area obviously dominant, they were able to contain the Texans all game and certainly never allowed them to sustain a drive. The interception by Jamie Collins was as much because Osweiler simply didn’t see him lurking in the middle of the field, and Jabaal Sheard got both of the team’s sacks, but in keeping with the overall nature of this game it was a team performance that was the story of the defence.

The Patriots keep rolling, and I don’t think anyone would bet against them going 4-0 without Tom Brady despite the injury problems stacking up at quarterback, especially with the Bills visiting them next week.

The Texans will be hoping this was a one off anomaly, but with the offensive problems and JJ Watt not looking at all himself, there will be concern until they can put a run of results together.

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

22 Thursday Sep 2016

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I won’t go into the reasons why me usual routine has been turned around this week, but it does remind of the various quotes regarding what happens to plans when they run into reality.

The NFL is a very real reminder of this, with various teams already facing very different situations than they expected. Of course, for the Vikings the plan didn’t even survive the pre-season, with Teddy Bridgewater going down with his horrible knee injury in practice. This not only affected the Vikings, but Carson Wentz is now starting and surprising everyone with the quality of his play for the Eagles after Philidelphia traded the expected starter Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Both teams are now 2-0, with Bradford surprising everyone with his performance against Green Bay on Sunday as the Vikings eked out a win despite losing Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus that could keep him out until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Browns who traded down with the Eagles, allowing the team from Philadelphia to select Wentz are facing questions about what they didn’t like about the quarterback. If the Browns are the ones that are getting asked the questions now having lost two starting quarterbacks in the first two weeks, there could be some awkward questions for the Rams who picked Jared Goff instead of Wentz. With Goff failing to even dress in week one, and the offence still not having scored a touchdown this season, you can see people beginning to wonder about the decision even if the questioning does seem to have been delayed by the win the Rams ground out against the Seahawks on Sunday.

These days everybody wants to declare the winners and losers as soon as possible, despite the fact things are often far more complex than they seen. Planning is important, but rarely do even the most basic plans survive when you put them into action.

The thing we need in life to counter this is adaptability and resilience. The mental toughness to take what is thrown at you is often the difference between trying to do something, and the perseverance to make it a success.

The actual truth is that we don’t know how either Goff or Wentz’s actual careers will go, two games of their rookie season is simply not a big enough sample size, and the thing I like about the way the Rams holding out Goff is that if he’s not ready he shouldn’t just be thrown in. Because we picked him first is a really bad reason to start a quarterback. If you have a player you hope will play of a decade, it doesn’t make sense to play them early to appease the matter of winning now, or at least it doesn’t if there is a real risk that you could hurt the development of the player.

Sometimes circumstances don’t allow for this. Tonight the New England Patriots will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett thanks to a combination of Tom Brady’s four game suspension and Jimmy Garopollo spraining his throwing shoulder during last week’s win against the Miami Dolphins. I am looking forward to seeing how Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick scheme an offence in only three days practice for a third round draft pick who was their third string quarterback going into the season.

For some this would be too much, and excuse for a team to lose a game, but somehow I think that at least part of the coaches will be relishing the challenge.

You trust that he’ll get good coaching but it’s a hell of a task and there simply could be not enough time, which leads me to tonight’s pick:

Texans @ Patriots (-0.5)

It turns out that apart from lots of points, the other thing that will get me to pick against the Patriots is being down to their third string quarterback with only three days to prepare. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t win tonight, but it is a big ask and not one I’m prepared to pick as the most likely to happen. Watch Bill Belichick prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:           Texans
Dan’s Pick:           Texans

AAF: Week One – 49ers O-Line

18 Sunday Sep 2016

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For my first amateur adventure in film of the season, Dan asked me to take a look at the Los Angeles Rams’ visit to the San Francisco 49ers, and after putting out an appeal on social media Simon from the Gridiron Gentlemen was kind enough to suggest I look at their offensive line to see how they tamed the Rams.

I am by no means an expert on line play, but I do enjoy watching defensive lines so it will be nice to turn the tables for the week.

I think it may be impossible to completely shut out Aaron Donald, but he had a remarkably quiet game. The 49ers’ line was certainly good in pass protection, often giving Blaine Gabbert a clean pocket, even if that didn’t always result in a completed pass. In fact, several times he simply saw the space open up before him and scrambled for a gain or first down. The Rams didn’t get a sack in this game, and the closest they came was probably when Donald beat left guard Zane Beadles when matched up one on one with him but couldn’t get to Gabbert before he threw the ball and was called for roughing the passer. This was not the only occasion Donald got through the line, he put a lovely swim move on centre Daniel Kilgore in the third quarter when the Ram’s blitzed five, but Gabbert was able to get rid of the ball or escape for a run. It may have resulted in a three and out for the offence, but they avoided the turnover and in so doing they negated what should have been one of the strengths of the Rams.

The run blocking was less obviously good overall, but the highlight of the week for me watching the line was a play that Simon mentioned on twitter, which really was beautiful. At the end or their second drive in the first quarter, the 49ers were 2nd & 11 on the Rams’ 11 yard line when Carlos Hyde ran in the touchdown thanks to some beautiful blocking. The 49ers lined up with 12 personnel in a shotgun formation with both tight ends to the right of the formation, one on the line and one behind, and Carlos Hyde stood to the left of Blaine Gabbert. On the snap of the ball right guard Andrew Tiller pulled left and sealed Rams’ end Robert Quinn whilst left tackle Joe Staley crashed down on Cam Thomas playing tackle and then blocked middle linebacker Alec Ogletree. For the Rams, Mark Barron who is listed as a linebacker/safety and lined up close to the line had correctly identified the gap the 49ers were aiming for, but tight end Garrett Celek had also pulled left and cleared out Barron easily, allowing Hyde to run in the touchdown whilst barely being touched before he crosses the goal line. There weren’t too many such exciting run plays in this game, but as the line develops in their new scheme under head coach Chip Kelly this play serves as a tantalising example of what might be possible.

Dan asked me to watch this game as he wanted to know what happened, to which I think the answer is that the Rams offence was ineffective, which is hardly unusual, but also their offensive line was able to control what should have been one of the Rams big advantages. The 49ers face a very tough ask this week in Carolina, and the offence is hardly flowing but it’s possible that their line at least is heading in the right direction.

Week Two Picks

18 Sunday Sep 2016

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So in yet another change of format, I’m going to try separating out my weekend blog posts to make them a bit easier to find. So here are Dan and mine’s picks for the week.

Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5)

This game obviously makes me nervous, and will be a physical nasty encounter despite all the talk of it being just another game from both sides this week. I know the Bengals are in Pittsburgh, but I think this will be another close game and with the Steelers giving away an extra half point at home I’m sticking with my team.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Ravens @ Browns (+7.5)

This is a big number for a home team, and part of me wants to pick the Browns with the competent Josh McCown under centre, but there are too many young players for me to be brave enough to do it. I hope this isn’t a mistake

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Cowboys @ Washington (-2.5)

This is a must win game for both teams with the Cowboys having already lost to the Giants in week one they cannot afford to lose two divisional games, and neither team will want to start 0-2 given that such a record usually means you won’t make the playoffs. I’m still trying to get a feel for both teams, but I think Washington will be better this week, not least because they won’t have to deal with Antonio Brown.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Titans @ Lions (-5.5)

The Titan’s started well and faded in their first game, but are now on the road against a Lions team that I think might be headed in the right direction.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chiefs @ Texans (-2.5)

The Chiefs are on the road, and are a bit banged up. I could regret this, but if you’re having problems at guard, the last thing you want to do is face JJ Watt, even if he is recovering from a back operation. I’m backing the Texans, all be it nervously as Andy Reid has a way with his team.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

You could make an argument that the Dolphins improved defence going against a banged up Patriots offence should give them a chance to cover, but I can’t overlook what the Patriots did to the Cardinals on the road in week one and so I can’t bring myself to pick the Dolphins to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Saints @ Giants (-5.5)

Although I don’t feel like I have a handle on the Giants, for me this game comes down to the fact that they have a more competent defence that the Saints, and with them being at home I am very nervously picking them to cover this spread. I see no reason why the Saints should suddenly start travelling better than they have in recent seasons..

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

49ers @ Panthers (-13.5)

This is a horrible spot for the 49ers, on the road after a Monday night game against a team who haven’t played since Thursday. I almost guarantee a Panthers win in this one, but this is a huge spread and it is no mean feat to shutout any NFL offence and so I’m picking the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Seahawks @ Rams (+5.5)

This is the Rams first home game that matters since moving back to LA, and they will be desperate to recover from last week’s loss. For some reason they always play the Seahawks tough, and with Russell Wilson on a gimpy ankle and in front of big home crowd I’m backing them to cover, although I can see the Seahawks winning and very possibly making me bitterly regret this pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (-6.5)

I am not too worried about the Cardinals being able to turn things round after their week one loss, and they could very easily run out big winners in this one, but I just have this feeling that Jameis Winston will keep this one close for the Bucs.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Falcons @ Raiders (-4.5)

I’m not sold on the Falcons and so will hesitantly take the Raiders despite them giving away this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Colts @ Broncos (-5.5)

I think the Broncos defence will really test the Colts’ offensive line, whilst their offence will show just how bad the Colts are at stopping the run. Combine this with the Broncos having extra rest from their opening day win and I’m backing them to cover despite these points.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Jaguars @ Chargers (-2.5)

The Chargers offence worries me with the loss of Keenan Allen, and so even though they are on the road, I’m backing the Jags to get their first win of the season.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Packers @ Vikings (+2.5)

This is a rough pair of road games for the Packers to open the season given that their last two preseason games were on the road as well, and with the Vikings defence looking really good and all the energy that will be surrounding them as the Vikings open their new stadium, I’m picking the Vikings getting 2.5 points. Watch Aaron Rodgers make me look very foolish…

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Eagles @ Bears (-2.5)

I’m not completely sure on this one, as Wentz was only playing against the Browns in week one, but the rookie quarterback looked good and I think they may be better than we were thinking. I don’t have a real feel for the Bears, but getting the points I’m taking the Eagles.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Jets @ Bills

18 Sunday Sep 2016

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New York Jets 37
Buffalo Bills 31

This was a tighter game than I was expecting, but then again it was a tighter game than it should have been given that that the Jets looked better on both sides of the ball for most of the game and nearly put up five hundred yards on the Bills defence.

It would be curious that Rex Ryan fired his offensive coordinator after this game, given it was his defensive side of the ball that was possibly the problem, but this action does remove a possible replacement lurking on his staff as the Bill have fallen to 0-2, but let’s look at the how the teams played.

The Jets struggled to run the ball early in the game, and whilst they did manage to grind out over one hundred yards as a team, it took Matt Forte thirty carries to get his round one hundred yards, although he did punch in three touchdowns. What really struck me with the Jets on offence was the number of third down conversions the Jets made, going eight of thirteen, and having me regularly make a note of a receiver making a third down catch to get a new set of downs. In fact they had two receivers go over one yards in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, whilst Quincy Enunwa also chipped in with ninety-two with a very strong opening to the game, but who was forced out with an injury to his ribs. This meant that we saw Jalin Marshall catch three balls for forty-five yards and it seems that the Jets offence is going to be effective again this season, and certainly they appear to have depth at receiver.

The Bills defence started strongly against the run, but they never seemed to get control of the Jets passing game, and despite putting the Jets in difficult positions on third down, was unable to get regular pressure or stop the passing game. As is typical of Rex Ryan’s teams, there were some badly timed penalties, but it is really hard to fathom how a defensive coach of such skill and reputation as Ryan has come to a team that already had a very good defence and seems to have taken them backwards. The Bills did manage one sack, and flushed Ryan Fitzpatrick out the pocket several times, but often he was able to make yards or get a first down with his feet, or make a pass to a receiver. However, they did contribute a touchdown when Jets receiver Jalin Marshal fumbled after a catch and corner Nickell Robey was able to scoop up the ball and run it back for a touchdown. They also manage to limit the Jets to field goals early, or this game would not have been as close, but in the end they just gave up too much in the passing game.

The Bills offence on the other hand, was unable to get things going consistently with LeSean McCoy flashing on occasions, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor being mobile but inconsistent in the passing game. However, what kept them in this game were big splash plays. The Bills opening drive started poorly on their first two plays, but on third and twelve Tryod Taylor threw a deep pass to Marquise Goodwin who got past Darrelle Revis for an eighty-four yard touchdown. They were unable to do much for the rest of the first half, but at the start of the second half Taylor was flushed out of the pocket, yet he was able to find enough time to pass to Greg Salas who got behind the defence to score a seventy-one yard touchdown. However, when it really mattered they couldn’t make the plays they needed, and their final touchdown owed much to the Jets having a thirteen point lead and so they were focussing on stopping the Bills scoring quickly, but were playing soft coverages. The offence has not been great this season for the Bill, but I really do think there’s more to Greg Roman’s firing than just that.

The Jets defence is playing well, at least in the font seven, and they were consistently getting pressure even if they didn’t generate any sacks. However, Derrelle Revis got burned again as age is catching up with him and he can’t quite run as he used to. He is still a very good corner, but it does appear that his time as the premier shutdown corner in the league is over. The two long touchdown passes will worry head coach Todd Bowles and defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers as they gave up a lot to AJ Green in week one, so there’s plenty for them to do, but their excellent front gives them a strong foundation to work from.

The Jets got back to 1-1 on the road in a divisional game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick possibly put to rest the idea that he can’t beat a Rex Ryan defence. I still expect the Jets to push for the playoffs, whilst the Bills having fallen to 0-2 and have given themselves a real hole to climb out of, which I can’t see them doing.

Divisional Pick’em 2016

18 Sunday Sep 2016

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So this is Dan’s baby, so he gets all the credit for the competition, whilst I had to fight HTML to get the tables hopefully looking okay.

The points system is as follows:

1 point for each team who finish in the position you’ve put them in.
1 bonus point for getting all 4 teams in a division in the correct order.

This means that there’s a total of 5 points up for grabs in each division; 40 in total.

It will be fun to see who has done the best job come the end of the season.

Name:

TWF Dan

TWF Gee

The English Lion

Aussie Guys NFL

Miami Dolphins UK

 

Twitter:

@TWFDan

@WrongFootball

@EnglandLion313

@AussieGuysNFL

@MiamiDolphinsUK

 

Team:

Dolphins

Bengals

Lions

49ers

Dolphins

 

 

AFC North

1st

Steelers

Bengals

Steelers

Bengals

Steelers

 

2nd

Bengals

Steelers

Bengals

Steelers

Bengals

 

3rd

Ravens

Ravens

Ravens

Ravens

Ravens

 

4th

Browns

Browns

Browns

Browns

Browns

 

AFC East

1st

Patriots

Patriots

Patriots

Patriots

Patriots

 

2nd

Dolphins

Jets

Jets

Jets

Dolphins

 

3rd

Jets

Dolphins

Dolphins

Bills

Jets

 

4th

Bills

Bills

Bills

Dolphins

Bills

 

AFC South

1st

Colts

Jaguars

Colts

Colts

Colts

 

2nd

Jaguars

Colts

Texans

Texans

Texans

 

3rd

Texans

Texans

Jaguars

Jaguars

Jaguars

 

4th

Titans

Titans

Titans

Titans

Titans

 

AFC West

1st

Chiefs

Chiefs

Chiefs

Chiefs

Raiders

 

2nd

Broncos

Broncos

Broncos

Raiders

Chiefs

 

3rd

Raiders

Raiders

Chargers

Broncos

Broncos

 

4th

Chargers

Chargers

Raiders

Chargers

Chargers

 

 

NFC North

1st

Packers

Packers

Packers

Packers

Packers

 

2nd

Vikings

Vikings

Lions

Vikings

Vikings

 

3rd

Lions

Lions

Vikings

Lions

Lions

 

4th

Bears

Bears

Bears

Bears

Bears

 

NFC East

1st

Cowboys

Redskins

Cowboys

Cowboys

Cowboys

 

2nd

Giants

Cowboys

Giants

Redskins

Giants

 

3rd

Eagles

Giants

Redskins

Giants

Eagles

 

4th

Redskins

Eagles

Eagles

Eagles

Redskins

 

NFC South

1st

Panthers

Panthers

Falcons

Panthers

Panthers

 

2nd

Falcons

Saints

Saints

Saints

Saints

 

3rd

Saints

Buccaneers

Panthers

Buccaneers

Falcons

 

4th

Buccaneers

Falcons

Buccaneers

Falcons

Buccaneers

 

NFC West

1st

Cardinals

Cardinals

Seahawks

Cardinals

Seahawks

 

2nd

Seahawks

Seahawks

Cardinals

Seahawks

Cardinals

 

3rd

Rams

Rams

Rams

Rams

Rams

 

4th

49ers

49ers

49ers

49ers

49ers

 

 

Name:

British Birdgang

Bucs UK

Going Long Podcast

British Bear London

Texans UK

 

Twitter:

@BritishBirdgang

@bucsUK

@GoingLongUK

@BritBearLondon

@TexansUK

 

Team:

Cardinals

Buccaneers

Bills

Bears

Texans

 

 

AFC North

1st

Steelers

Bengals

Bengals

Bengals

Bengals

 

2nd

Bengals

Steelers

Steelers

Steelers

Steelers

 

3rd

Ravens

Browns

Ravens

Ravens

Browns

 

4th

Browns

Ravens

Browns

Browns

Ravens

 

AFC East

1st

Patriots

Patriots

Patriots

Patriots

Bills

 

2nd

Bills

Dolphins

Bills

Jets

Patriots

 

3rd

Jets

Jets

Dolphins

Bills

Jets

 

4th

Dolphins

Bills

Jets

Dolphins

Dolphins

 

AFC South

1st

Texans

Colts

Texans

Texans

Texans

 

2nd

Jaguars

Jaguars

Colts

Colts

Jaguars

 

3rd

Colts

Texans

Titans

Jaguars

Titans

 

4th

Titans

Titans

Jags

Titans

Colts

 

AFC West

1st

Broncos

Raiders

Broncos

Broncos

Chiefs

 

2nd

Raiders

Cheifs

Chiefs

Chiefs

Raiders

 

3rd

Chiefs

Chargers

Raiders

Raiders

Broncos

 

4th

Chargers

Broncos

Chargers

Chargers

Chargers

 

 

NFC North

1st

Packers

Packers

Packers

Vikings

Packers

 

2nd

Vikings

Vikings

Vikings

Packers

Bears

 

3rd

Bears

Bears

Lions

Lions

Lions

 

4th

Lions

Lions

Bears

Bears

Vikings

 

NFC East

1st

Giants

Giants

Cowboys

Redskins

Eagles

 

2nd

Cowboys

Eagles

Redskins

Eagles

Redskins

 

3rd

Eagles

Cowboys

Giants

Giants

Cowboys

 

4th

Redskins

Redskins

Eagles

Cowboys

Giants

 

NFC South

1st

Panthers

Panthers

Panthers

Panthers

Panthers

 

2nd

Falcons

Buccaneers

Buccaneers

Falcons

Falcons

 

3rd

Buccaneers

Falcons

Falcons

Saints

Buccaneers

 

4th

Saints

Saints

Saints

Buccaneers

Saints

 

NFC West

1st

Cardinals

Cardinals

Seahawks

Cardinals

Cardinals

 

2nd

Seahawks

Seahawks

Cardinals

Seahawks

Rams

 

3rd

Rams

Rams

Rams

Rams

Seahawks

 

4th

49ers

49ers

49ers

49ers

49ers

 

The Season Changes Everything

15 Thursday Sep 2016

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It is always hard to know how much to read into the offseason and preseason, and then there is a tendency to overreact to the week one results so I’m going to go through the opening slate of games and work through whether I would be worried or not if I was a fan of that team.

Carolina Panthers 20
Denver Broncos 21

The Broncos will be happy to have got a win following the same formula as last year. In fact, the offence looked like it flowed better now that it was working how Gary Kubiak would draw it up if he wasn’t making allowances of an ageing Peyton Manning. The defence still looks good and they will be hoping this is just the start of the defence of last year’s Super Bowl

Fans of the Panthers shouldn’t over react to this loss as Trevor Simian did not look like a rookie, and they did get some pressure, but the offence looked better with the return of Kelvin Benjamin. They can’t keep running Cam Newton as much, particularly with the headshots he was taking or he won’t finish the season, but they are not too far behind yet.

Tamp Bay Buccaneers 31
Atlanta Falcons 24

Getting off to a losing start against a divisional rival is not a great way to start the year, and with the streaky play of last year still a memory, the Falcons will need to sort the defence if they are to do better. Still, Mohammed Sanu leading receivers with eighty yards and a touchdown from five catches gives hope the offence might be more balanced this year.

The Buccaneers got the season off to a good start, with Jameis Winston take a step forward and we will see how far this is going to go, but it looks headed in the right direction now.

Buffalo Bills 7
Baltimore Ravens 13

The Bills got off to a slow start, with an offence that was worryingly unproductive with only one hundred and sixty yards of offence I get the feeling that things are not going to go well in Buffalo, but there is plenty of time to turn it round.

The Ravens ground out a win, and look to have some receivers for Joe Flacco to throw long to this year, but I don’t know if they are going to compete for the playoffs this year.

Chicago Bears 14
Houston Texans 23

The Texans got the win despite barely any production from JJ Watt, but Brock Ossweiler threw for a pair of touchdowns and two hundred yards with one interception. I’m still waiting to see how Ossweiler settles into the offence and this was only against the Bears, but as the only team with a win in the AFC South the Texans have to be happy enough with their start to the season.

The Bears are still a team in transition, and whilst the defence definitely looks like it is heading in the right direction, particularly with their linebackers, this was not the defence that would allow us to truly evaluate how they are progressing.

Cincinnati Bengals 23
New York Jets 22

The Jets biggest worry will be that they didn’t win this game, but their defensive front looked fearsome getting seven sacks, and there offence did enough to win the game if they had not had a field goal blocked and missed an extra point. The addition of Steve McLendon from the Steelers certainly was a potent addition to the already formidable decfensive line, and Quincy Enunwa was effective at receiver give the Fitzpatrick more options to throw to.

The Bengals struggled with protection on offence, but AJ Green and Andy Dalton did enough to win, whilst the defence limited the Jets receivers to relatively modest totals. This was not an easy way to open the season, and they will be very happy to have got the win as they head on to Pittsburgh for one of the marquee matchups of week two.

Cleveland Browns 10
Philidelphia Eagles 29

The Eagles got off to a better start than I was expecting, and whilst I’m not prepared to declare him the future after one game against a poor Browns team, Carson Wentz got his NFL career off to a winning start. He looked poised in the pocket as he registered a triple digit passer rating, justifying the faith the font office had in him when they traded Sam Bradford away. The defence is likely to take a little time to settle in, but Fletcher Cox has already registered his first sack of the season, and I wouldn’t bet against Jim Schwartz forming them into a strong unit.

The Browns thought that they could turn round Robert Griffin’s career, but sadly the oft injured quarterback broke the coracoid bone in his left shoulder, which may or may not require surgery. Already the Browns are saying that he will miss at least the next eight games. This might lead to an improvement in the passing game given that Josh McCown is a very competent backup who will throw a more accurate pass and so we’ll likely see more than the heave it up to Coleman or Pryor of RGIII. Both receivers are raw but intriguing prospects. I’m still prepared to back the process in the long run, but it does look as if this season is going to be painful and there will be some who will be wondering about their decision to trade the number two pick and not take Wentz given how good he looked in his first game.

Packers 27
Jaguars 23

The Jaguars gave a very creditable account of themselves, but ultimately lost against a Packers team that are still finding their way. Still, the only team in their division to get a win were the Texans and they won’t be worried too much about this loss unless it becomes a habit.

The Packers offence still looked a bit like it did last season, but it is perhaps not surprising that Jordy Nelson is still knocking off the rust as he comes back from last year’s significant injury. They look to be favourites for the division, but they will want the offence to improve over the coming weeks.

Vikings 25
Titans 15

The worry for the Titans is that they went into half time with a ten-zero lead, and ended up losing the game as their defence fell apart. I’m not necessary sold on exotic smash-mouth football as I don’t believe you setup the pass with the run, but that you setup your offence by being convincingly dangerous at both running and passing the football. I do like that the Titans are trying to do something different in terms of the trend in the league being passing offence, but you need the play-action deep threat to make sure that the opposition don’t just stuff the box. There’s a version of this offence that can work, look how effectively the Panthers run the ball with a myriad of options, but I’m not sure the Titan’s are there yet.

We knew that the Vikings’ defence was good, and they kept the team in this game, but it is slightly worrying that Adrian Peterson only got thirty-one yards on nineteen carries. Still, Stefon Diggs did manage over a hundred yards receiving and with a bit more time to settle Sam Bradford in, the Vikings will hope to be competitive in their new stadium, even if the Packers are not the easiest of visitors.

San Diego Chargers 27
Kansas City Chiefs 33

The Chiefs defence is banged up, and I am somewhat worried about their loss of Sean Smith over the offseason as the secondary only really came together last season once he returned from injury. Still, it does seem that Andy Reid has the trust of his players, and Alex Smith looked very good as he led the Chiefs back in the second half to win the game.

The Chargers were doing so well in until their injury curse struck again when they lost Keenan Allen and things just seemed to fall apart for them. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t’ concerned for their season, but they do seem to have improved from last year and it is too early to write them off yet.

Oakland Raiders 35
New Orleans Saints 34

As I feared, the Saints defence was porous as it doesn’t look to have improved significantly from last year and so it looks to be another season of Drew Brees trying score enough points to keep them in games, but how this will go I do not know.

The Raiders got off to a winning start, and there is no shame in giving up points to a Drew Brees led offence, but they will want to be more in control of games if they are to push for playoff this season, but things are definitely looking like they are heading in the right direction. I love the aggression of going for the two point conversion to win the game, and the NFL is a better league for having the Raiders be competitive.

Miami Dolphins 10
Seattle Seahawks 12

The Seahawks offensive line is indeed a problem, which in this game held them back and got Russell Wilson a sprained ankle. The defence is still going to be good, and they will be competitive, but we will have to see if the offensive line is bad enough to be an Achilles heels. For the record, I loved their approach to the national anthem, by standing arm in arm they made a strong statement of unity.

The Dolphins should have won this game, but for a dropped pass by Kenny Stills and blocked field goal, but the defence did enough to stifle the Seahawks even if the offence sputtered. The worry for me is how that defence is going to fair against better passing teams, and we’ll know more when we see how they do against the Patriots.

New York Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys 19

The Cowboys got a solid performance from Dak Prescott, who didn’t turn the football over and kept them in the game, but Ezekiel Elliot struggled to match up to the expectation placed upon the rookie running back. These are one of the teams that I’m not sure how to read because there are too many unknowns, and not being sure how the Giants are going to be this season, I’ll just have to see how they go over the next couple of weeks.

It appears that I was overly sceptical about the Giants offseason moves, and whilst I’m not saying I was entirely wrong, their defence does appear to have been better than I was expecting. I’m looking forward to finally getting to see them play to see for myself, and so I might have to watch them soon.

Detroit Lions 39
Indianapolis Colts 35

The Colts will be relieved that Andrew Luck looked like the quarterback that everyone expects him to be, but the defence looks to be a problem, at least until they Vontae Davis back and even then this unit could cause them problems. It is good to see Luck playing well, and he is a lot younger than Brees so there is plenty of time to win a Super Bowl, but the Colts really need to build consistently around him if they want to make the most of having a second franchise quarterback in a row.

The Detroit Lions won this game off the back of a more assertive performance by Matthew Stafford, who made the most of the balance that Marvin Jones and Golden Tate gave him at receiver. We will have to see how the defence shapes up, but I have faith that under Jim Bob Cooter the offence will continue to develop.

New England Patriots 23
Arizona Cardinals 21

The Cardinals will be incredibly disappointed to lose this game against the Patriots given the players they were missing. However, whilst Carson Palmer was not looking the sharpest he ever has, the Cardinals should have won this game were it not for another missed field goal and both Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson looked great. The secondary looked like they were struggling opposite Patrick Peterson, but I have faith the defence will improve as this coaching staff will not let things stand still and are too good.

What else can we say about the Patriots? The game plan worked as usual, the offence did enough despite the players they were missing, whilst the defence once again is really good with Chris Long enjoying life on a competitive team. With the most difficult game of the four without Brady out the way, it’s very possible that they could be 4-0 by the time he returns.

Pittsburgh Steelers 38
Washington 16

The big story I missed during the podcast recording was the amount of money Washington paid Josh Norman to have him playing zone whilst Antonio Brown ran riot on the other side of the field. I have heard some ex-players questioning why he didn’t demand to cover Brown, but I confess it would not a challenge I would fancy. I wasn’t expecting Kirk Cousins to maintain the form he had at the end of last season, but he will need to be more consistent if he is to help Washington get back to the playoffs.

I knew the Steelers were going to be scary once they got all their players back, but they didn’t even wait for that with a performance that underlines just how good Antonio Brown is, and the skill Ben Roethlisberger has in finding him deep. They already look like one of the teams to beat in the AFC so of course the Bengals are visiting next week in what should be one of the games of week two. Yes I am nervous already.

Los Angeles Rams 0
San Francisco 49ers 28

The 49ers surprised everyone by not just being competitive, but by shutting out the Rams offence as they ran out easy winner in this one. The fact that Dan wants me to watch the coaching tape to find out what happens says everything, but whilst I’m not totally changing my mind on how they will do this season, clearly they are going to be more competitive than I expected this season and I am curious to see how the team develop under Chip Kelly and what he has learned after his experience in Philidelphia.

The Rams didn’t even manage agricultural manure seven and nine football. The offence clearly sputtered, with some very worrying running figures for Todd Gurley stretching back to the tail of last season. The big question that is going to surround them is that the first round quarterback that they traded for didn’t even dress for this game. I am not actually totally against this, as they gain nothing by throwing Jared Goff in before he is ready, and everything to lose, but I’m sure no one will be happy about this state of affairs. We learned through Hard Knocks that the Rams’ defensive line coach is pretty terrifying, and so I’m sure they will be better next week. In fact, given the Rams will be playing their first game in LA, Jeff Fisher will be hoping for a big response from his players.

 

Finally let’s take a look at tonight’s game:

Jets @ Bills (-0.5)

With all that I have written above, I can only pick the Jets to win this one, especially getting half a point.

Gee’s Pick:           Jets
Dan’s Pick:           Jets