Monthly Archives: September 2014

NFl Week 4: Giants @ Washington Recap

28 Sunday Sep 2014

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We’ve had series of big wins for the home team in the Thursday night games this season, so this week we turned it around, but sadly only so we got a big win for the away team. My focus for Washington was to be Brian Orakpo and Richard Griffin, but with RG3’s injury, I’ve swapped it to his backup Kirk Cousins who is now the starter. For the Giants I wanted to take a look at Eli Manning and see how he is settling into the new offence, and Antrel Rolle at safety who went to the Pro Bowl last season.

The headline for this game has been the four interceptions for Kirk Cousins and the good day for Eli Manning, there are other things that that need writing, but I might as well start there.

Kirk Cousins didn’t actually play too badly in the first half. I liked the use of play action in the passing game, but the warning signs were already beginning to show themselves. Washington’s first drive ended on sack of Cousins, who fumbled the ball, handing the Giants excellent field position from which they scored. Both sides then failed to get a first down on their next drives, Washington fails to get a first down again, before the Giants and then Washington have touchdown drives. The lone touchdown pass for Cousins to Andre Roberts came off play action and was the last time that Washington were within a touchdown of the Giants. On the next series, Cousins lofted a deep pass that led Niles Paul into a pair of receivers and a concussion. The drive ended when he completed a pass to Logan Paulsen, who then fumbled the ball. As I said, I liked the play action passes and Cousins looked good completing to his backs and tight ends, but there were some inaccurate throws mixed in.

The meltdown came in the second half trying to get his team back in the game, but the interceptions were not good passes. Having successfully led his team to a touchdown on their first drive, Cousins threw his first interception on the next one. His receiver was not open, but what made it worse was that Cousins placed his throw to the inside of Ryan Grant, giving a simple interception to corner Prince Amukamara. He might have gotten away with this, when on the following Giant’s drive a diving Brandon Meriwether jarred the ball lose in the end zone, that popped up for an interception, but on the second play of the ensuing drive, Cousins overthrew Pierre Garcon and safety Quintin Demps made a nice play to get across from his deep position and make the interception. With good field position, Eli Manning wasted no time in getting a touchdown in four plays. On the following drive Washington fails to get a first down, but then so does the Giants. However, again on the second play of the drive, Cousins drops back with three receivers to his right, hits his back foot and throws the ball into zone coverage, and directly to Mathias Kiwanuka. This again gives Eli Manning a short field and he wastes no time in scoring another touchdown. However, on the next drive Cousins throws his final interception, when he can’t step into his throw as left guard Josh LeRibeus gets knocked over resulting in Giants pressure, an underthrown ball, and an interception to Antrel Rolle. This was a horrible half of football, and whilst it is far too early to write him off, Washington and Cousins can’t afford to have too many more performances like this.

So whilst Kirk Cousins had a nightmare, Eli Manning had four touchdown passes, a touchdown run and three hundred yards passing. He looked in control of the offence, settling into the new system, and making good use of tight end Larry Donnell who looked really good as he caught three touchdown passes. There’s no doubt that Eli benefitted from good field position, and there were a few more three and out drives than the Giant’s would have liked, but he definitely looks like he could thrive in the new offence, and talk of his demise has been a bit premature.

The other thing that helped Eli Manning look so good was a well ranked defence that I was not that impressed with in this game. The secondary seemed soft in coverage all day, and there were a lot of diving attempts at tackles without wrapping up. I was pretty disappointed with Brian Orakpo, who managed no sacks, very little pressure and only two tackles. He seemed to be completely controlled by Will Beatty, and whilst I don’t know if this was just a bad day, he’ll need to do a lot better if he’s to get the big contract he will want next season.

On defence for the Giants, Antrel Rolle looked good without standing out to me. On the interception, I wonder whether if Cousins was able to step into the throw, DeSean Jackson was not past Rolle and gone for a big play. I also saw him miss a tackle when Alfred Morris stepped round him and he was flat out run on a pass play by Roy Helu, but he was round the play and I could very well be nit picking. I need to spend more time watching safeties to be sure.

In conclusion, this was a very solid win for the Giants and casts more question about Washington than just the play of Kirk Cousins. I said the Giants were improving when I picked against them, but they were definitely better than I expected and I am now worried about how Washington are going to be going forward. For now, only time will tell.

NFL Week 4 Picks

25 Thursday Sep 2014

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Last week I returned to respectability, going 8-8 despite missing out on two games by only half a point. Unfortunately, due to these two games and me underestimating the Bears, I’ve dropped a game behind Dan in our competition so I will have to redouble my efforts or he’s going to win the blog from me. You may notice some more stats from the Football Outsiders creeping in, although it will be another week until their DVOA stat starts including the adjustments for opponents, so I’ll be using their modified DAVE stat overall ranking as this includes adjustments for preseason/early season comparison, alongside their DVOA stats for offence, defence and special teams. As well as these advanced stats I’ll be using traditional stats, blind luck, observation, and reading the entrails of a ritually slaughtered Steelers fan.

Gee:     Week 3   8-8                Overall   21-27
Dan:     Week 3   9-7                Overall   22-26

Giants @ Washington (-3.5)

So the Thursday night game this week is between two teams that I picked wrong last week. The Giants beat the Texans pretty convincingly, with Eli having a very solid day gaining 234 yards from 21 completions out of 28 attempts, two touchdowns and no interceptions, a running game that gouged the Texans for 176 yards by Rashad Jennings, and the Texans giving the ball away four times. I don’t feel too bad about not seeing this turnaround coming for the Giants, but the Texans were on the road for a second straight week and I might have got carried away by how good JJ Watt is. However, although I had mentioned that Kirk Cousins looked more comfortable as a drop back passer than RG3, I hadn’t realised how much better their offence seemed to run. They only narrowly lost to the 3-0 Eagles, have the third ranked defence according to DVOA, and I think they are going to be too much to handle for an improving Giants team.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dan’s Comments: – I’ve changed my mind twice on this one. Giants looked pretty good against the Texans (who themselves were strong in weeks 1 and 2), so I’m going to go with them.

Bills @ Texans (-2.5)

The Bills are ranked ninth overall by the DAVE stat; and are ninth on offence, eleventh on defence, and second on special teams by DVOA. They lost to a good Chargers team last week as I thought they would, but they have made themselves a real contender in the AFC East. I’m still worried about EJ Manuel and whilst they look like they might improve on last year’s 6-10 record, it is early and the Bills have a recent history that doesn’t inspire confidence. Not only did the Texans lose last week, but their defence gave up 193 yards on the ground and Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions. It has been a feature of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career that every few games he has a stinker, and so I’m not expecting a repeat performance, but for me the Bills have the edge in this one. And I’m getting points!

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Back to winning ways this week for the Texans

Packers @ Bears (+0.5)

I’m not sure if Aaron Rodgers telling fans to relax will help or not, but I don’t think that he is particularly to blame here. The o-line hasn’t being playing great and as a result the offence is not firing on all cylinders, and whilst I don’t think they will necessarily stay ranked twenty-first as they currently are, for me this is where their problem lies. This is interesting as I expected the defence to be the issue, but at eighteenth by DVOA, the defence should be good enough for them to win if their offence was playing up to expectations, so it all depends on if they can turn things around on offence. This should be good news as the Bears defence was the worry in preseason, however they’ve been holding up surprising well so far. There are questions about their run defence, but I’m not sure that the Packers as currently constituted are the team to take advantage of this. I think this is going to be a close game but I fancy the Bears to win at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Dan’s Comments: – This always makes for a good game. Packers by a touchdown for me.

Lions @ Jets (+1.5)

This is the first game the Dan and I agree on. The Lions had a really good win against the Packers last week, are looking more disciplined and won with defence. It must be hard to lose Stephen Tulloch to the year with a torn ACL that he sustained celebrating a sack, but they are ranked second in defence by DVOA, and linebacker DeAndre Levy is really making a name for himself with his good play. The Jets are still playing well on defence and Geno Smith has improved from last year, but I have the feeling that the Lions are good and the Jets are not going to be good enough to win this one, even if they are at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Dan’s Comments: – Easiest pick this week!

Titans @ Colts (-7.5)

The Titans did not have a good day against the Bengals, and the early talk of Jake Locker improving has cooled after he threw two interceptions last week. I don’t know if they have anything they can hang their hat on as an identity, Jake Locker is on the injury list, and so I don’t think they’re going to be winning this one. The Colts came out last week and did what they needed to in beating a poor Jaguars team. We expect Andrew Luck to be good, but even Trent Richardson showed something last week and having finally got their first win of the season, I think they will beat the Titans at home. I’m a little worried about the points, but I think they will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Dan’s Comments: – This will be a close one, so I’m taking the points.

Dolphins @ Raiders (+4.5)

This is the first of the international series games being played at Wembley this year. The Dolphins beat a Patriots team that look like they’re struggling in week 1 and then have lost against the Bills and Chiefs. Their coach has not exactly been backing their young quarterback, and whilst the Raiders are already over in the U.K., the Dolphins are not flying in until Friday. I don’t like this strategy for travelling and I hate the approach to the quarterback question. Tannehill has only had three games with a new coordinator and it’s much too early to be making a judgement about him. I also don’t like that there are reports that the players on defence hated the game plan against the Chiefs. This does not strike me as a well run football team. The Raiders are 0-3, lost against the misfiring Patriots, and so they are rightly underdogs against the Dolphins on a neutral site. But their performance improved last week, and I just have a feeling about them. I could regret this, although I don’t want Dan to watch his team lose live at the stadium, but I think the game is going the wrong way for him in London this weekend.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: – A good day in London for the Dolphins (I wonder how much of it I’ll remember on Monday morning!)

Buccaneers @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Buccaneers were awful last week. You hope they have a chip on their shoulder after being humiliated on nationally televised game last week, but there is a lot of work for Lovie Smith to do. I thought that Mike Glennon looked better than the injured Josh McCown last week, and so that might help, but I’m not sure when they might pick up a win. The odds say they don’t lose every game this year, but looking down their schedule I don’t fancy them against anyone. The Steelers got an impressive win against the Panthers last week, and Le’Veon Bell is looking really good. The banged up linebacker group worries me and I still think they might be a step behind the Ravens in the division, but the AFC North once again looks to be one of the tougher divisions in the NFL and I’m happy that the Steelers will beat the spread in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comments: – Even with the spread, I can’t see anything other than a Steelers win this week.

Panthers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Steve Smith has been heavily featured by the Ravens and is playing well as they welcome his former team to M&T Bank stadium. The Ravens have done pretty well on the field this year, but losing Dennis Pitta to a second dislocated hip could cause them problems. However, Owen Daniels looked good when I saw him and knows the system and the defence is good so I think the Ravens will continue to do okay. The Panthers really got gouged in the running game last week against the Steelers, and whilst they look much better than some of us were expecting, they just lost to a team that got beaten by Ravens pretty handily. I’m not worried about the Browns running the Ravens close last week as I think they’re going to do that to a lot of teams and I’m taking the Ravens despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Dan’s Comments: – Another close one, but I think there’ll be more than a field goal in it.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-13.5)

The Jaguars are bad, and it’s going to take double digit points for me to pick them again this year unless they show me something. I still stand by my week one pick, but we know more now and I don’t see the Chargers having a problem continuing their good start to the season this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Dan’s Comments: – The Jags (despite being 0-3 so far!) are a team on the up. They’ll still lose, but not by 2 touchdowns.

Falcons @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Teddy Bridgewater era starts in Minnesota and I think in the long term he is going to be good, but losing Peterson has hurt this offence and the line doesn’t seem to be playing that well either. I think the defence will be okay under Zimmer, but it’s going to be a long season. We shouldn’t overreact to the Falcons performance against the Bucs last week, but they are good on offence, and I think they will have too much for the Vikings, even away from home.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Dan’s Comments: – OK, I changed my mind – this is the easiest pick.

Eagles @ 49ers (-5.5)

I think the 49ers are in the same place as I did last week, their depth is being tested and whilst I don’t think they’re bad, the defence is really struggling (twenty-first in DVOA) and indiscipline is costing them too. I wasn’t surprised at their loss last week to a Cardinals team that I think are going to keep contending this season (as ever, health permitting) and I am a little surprised that they’re getting so many points, even at home. The Eagles are 3-0 but I did love the line on the Grantland NLF Podcast, “…Sports sciene 0, regression to the mean 1,” when talking about their injuries. I think they’re the better team in this game, and whilst it’s definitely possible that this game could be one they lose, I don’t see them getting beaten by six points.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Dan’s Comments: – Eagles to continue their run this week. Philly win.

Saints @ Cowboys (+3.5)

The Cowboys got a win last week, but before we get ahead of ourselves, it was against the Rams who are really struggling. The running game helped them counter the back issues that still seem to be affecting Tony Romo’s game, and they certainly the offensive line to do it. Their defence did enough, but I don’t know if it will be able to cope in this game. The Saints were meant to be challengers for the Super Bowl this year, but their defence isn’t living up to last year’s improvement and their offence has been surprisingly out of sync, or at least that is the narrative I’ve heard, but by DVOA they are ranked number one. They are moving from one dome to another, so I don’t think there woes on the road will be as pronounced as some expect and I see them following up their first win with a second against the Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Dan’s Comments: – I picked Cowboys the last 2 weeks, but I think they’ll struggle this week.

Patriots @ Chiefs (+3.5)

The Patriots seem to have undergone a switch in identity with their defence ranked number one by DVOA and an offence that is struggling. Their offensive line is not giving Tom Brady the protection he is used to, and there are signs that father time is catching up with one of the all time greats. In fairness, if you look at the weapons he has to work with now, compared to a few years ago, this is not perhaps surprising but it also something that isn’t going to change any time soon. I liked the Chiefs going into the season, and whilst I thought they would regress this year, I didn’t expect this. They beat the Dolphins last week, but I think the Patriots and the Dolphins are heading in different directions and I can’t see the Patriots losing on Monday night football. That’s a really bad reason to pick a team but I’m going with it for now.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Dan’s Comments: –  While they beat the Dolphins this week, I wouldn’t say they were particularly good, and I can’t see them being too close to the Patriots this week.

NFL Week 3: Buccaneers @ Faclons – Deconstructing a Debacle

21 Sunday Sep 2014

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Where do you start with a game this one sided? I confess I only made it through three quarters of coaching tape, but by then this game was well and truly done.

My things to watch for the Buccanneers were Josh McCown at quarterback and their Pro Bowl linebacker Lavonte David, whilst for the Falcons it was how rookie Jake Matthews plays at left tackle and whether they could generate the a pass rush this year. After watching the broadcast of the game, I also decided I would take a look at the Falcons fullback Patrick DiMarco and the left side of the Bucs line with Logan Mankins and Anthony Collins.

This game got out of hand so quickly for the Bucs, my first note of the game was woeful defence as the Falcons drove the ball for an opening drive touchdown. They would give up twenty-one unanswered points in the first quarter alone, and fifty-six before finally getting on the score board themselves in the fourth quarter. They were beaten so soundly, but I shall do my best to go through what happened.

The reason I wanted to take a look at the left side of the Bucs’ line was that Logan Mankins is a six time Pro Bowl guard and Anthony Collins was a backup tackle who was so good for the Bengals last season that when their left guard went down, the Bengals own Pro Bowl tackle Andrew Whitworth moved inside and Collins played at left tackle. In this game they actually held up pretty well, although it did look to me like there might have been some communication issues with Mankins who arrived very late in preseason, but the only time I saw them flat out beat was on an overload blitz. However, the Bucs gave up three sacks in this game, including one where Jonathan Massaquoi came untouched from left end due to a protection break down and another when tackle Corey Peters came through Patrick Omameh at right guard. Add to this, thirty yards of penalties from two unnecessary roughness calls against Evan Dietrich-Smith and overall you can see the start of the problems on offence.

So where else did it go wrong? Well neither team held onto the ball that well, and whilst Bobby Rainey’s two fumbles stood out, the Bucs fumbled the ball five times, losing it four times. Still, the Falcons fumbled it four times themselves and lost three. What I’m not sure of is how these stats account for one play where the Falcons’ Levine Toilolo fumbled the ball after a catch, only for Devin Hester to force a fumble from Mark Barron and then recover it himself. This was the pattern of the game, whenever the Bucs did do something right, they shot themselves in the foot shortly after, plus Devin Hester doing good things. These combined when the Bucs punted the ball fifty-six yards to Hester, who with one move seemed to run past most of the coverage team and then break away to score his twentieth punt return touchdown, the most in NFL history.

In fact, Devin Hester had a great game. As well as causing his usual problems in the return game, he also caught a twenty-five yard pass and ran in a twenty yard touchdown. His so fast and shifty, and at thirty-two is still having a big impact on games.

The other Falcons players I was specifically focussing on were Jake Mathews and Patrick DiMarco. I thought that Jake Mathews held up well, and if not always dominating. I didn’t see him beaten badly either and could often see him steering his rusher past Matt Ryan, but I’d like to see him develop his run blocking. Fullback Patrick DiMarco caught my eye catching a couple of pass out of play-action passes, and watching him the whole game he really impressed me. He wasn’t exactly flattening people, but he was athletic enough to get out where he needed and open holes for the Falcons in the running game, and made some nice catches. In a league where the fullback is slowing dying out in favour of three receiver or two tight end sets, it was nice to see one being used so effectively.

Now unfortunately, we get back to the Buccaneers and my focus on Josh McCown didn’t last long as he was out of the game with over three minutes left in the second quarter. He went five for twelve in the passing game and was picked off in the first quarter when Kemal Ishmael read the play and jumped in front of the pass to Vincent Jackson. In fact, Mike Glennon looked better almost straight away when he came into the game and we’ll have to see if there is a decision to be made for the Bucs regarding quarterback going forward.

Watching Lavonte David play for a defence that gave up six touchdowns was never going to show him in the best light, but frankly I was more impressed with Dane Fletcher who at least flashed with a good pass defence going across the middle, half a sack and five tackles. David had more tackles with seven, but his play didn’t stand out. In fact the Buccaneers defence as a whole seemed to struggle to get off their blocks, their zone coverage was soft enough that Matt Ryan picked them apart, and they gave up some bad plays. Hester ran virtually untouched in a twenty yard counter play that saw all of the Bucs’ linebackers go with the play then get sealed so they couldn’t make the tackle, and Dashon Goldson should have stopped Antone Smith from running in the Falcons final touchdown, which is a shame as he made an excellent play earlier in the game to stop a fumble going out of bounds so the Bucs could recover it.

In fairness no aspect of their game shined, unsurprising in a blow out loss, and Lovie Smith will have a big job to pick them up and do something to make them better.

If you want to understand how badly this game went for the Buccaneers, look at the following series of four plays. At 8:31 in the third quarter Matt Ryan connects with Julio Jones who makes a great over the shoulder catch for a forty yard touchdown. After a touchback on the ensuing kick off, the Buccaneers proceed to snap the ball over Mike Glennon’s head and turn the ball over. On the next play, Steven Jackson somehow runs through three tackles to score a touchdown. That pretty much tells you all you need to know about this game, and would have saved me eight hundred and fifty odd words. Roll on tonight’s games and let’s hope that next week’s Thursday night game of the Giants at Washington is closer.

NFL Week 3 Picks

18 Thursday Sep 2014

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Last week I went a horrible four and twelve so I’m going to do a quick check evaluation of where I went wrong so hopefully I can do better as Dan and I are now tied up at thirteen and nineteen across the season.

The first place I can start is that I probably have to trust my first instincts more, even if some of them were a based on gut instincts. I send the lines to Dan on a Tuesday night and make initial picks, and then refine them as I write the blog. I initially picked the Ravens, Patriots, Jets, and Bears; then changed my mind as I wrote the games up and lost on all of them. That’s throwing away a pretty respectable eight and eight week, plus I was always worried about the amount of points the Broncos were giving.

What I am taking away from the first two weeks is that the Jaguars are not continuing with the steps they made last season, and I yet I still want to pick them this week. The Buccaneers are injured and bad, the Panthers are much better than I thought they were going to be and I think the Saints may just be good rather that top echelon. Also the Bills have won both of their games, but I don’t trust Manuel so I just don’t know what to do with them. So let’s take a look at this week’s games, and I really don’t like the lines in a lot of them.

Oh yes, and this week I’ll remember to actually state our records!

Gee:      Week 2   4-12                     Overall   13-19
Dan:      Week 2   5-11                     Overall   13-19

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-6.5)

So the game that I get to write up in detail this week is the Buccaneers who I appear to have overestimated and a Falcons team who had a good win week one against the Saints and then got beat pretty handily by the Bengals. I think this is going to be a win for the Falcons, who looked pretty good to me in preseason, but now we’re in live games it’s not so obvious. They’re at home, where they’ve historically been strong, I’m not sure about the points they’re giving but I’m going to take them anyway. I’ll be interested to see the Buccaneers as I really thought Lovie Smith was going to have more of an impact, but it already looks like it is going to be another long season for the Bucs.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)

I do not have a handle on the Bills, and according to my planned schedule I don’t get to see them until week 11 so given that they’re playing the Charges, I suspect I’ll be taking a look this week. The Bills look to be running well, and Watkins is beginning to show his quality but EJ Manuel is still a question at quarterback, whilst on defence they’ve been pretty strong. The Chargers are one and one, but coming off a strong win against the Seahawks and went close against the Cardinals who are unbeaten this year. I think the Chargers are a playoff team this year, and although they benefitted from the heat against the Seahawks at home, I’m picking them to beat the Bills up in Buffalo. This does mean that I am picking against the Bills for a third week, and whilst I do believe in their results, I just think they’re going to fall short in this game. I think I’ve written that before.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – Bills won well on Sunday, but having watched the game, I’d say that was more down to the Dolphins being poor, than the bills being especially good. Chargers on the other hand looked very good on Sunday so easy pick for me.

Titans @ Bengals (-6.5)

Who Dey! Right, now I’ve got that out of my system, the Bengals have got off to a good start in terms of winning both of their games with the defence looking very strong. I’m also impressed with the game planning that Hue Jackson has done to deal with his shifting team. Right now they’re coping with the injury bug that has really hit them, but how long that can continue I am not sure. However, maybe the early bye week is not such an issue if it means that the Bengals can get some bodies healthy. The Titans have beaten a struggling Chiefs team and then lost to a so-so Cowboys team. Jake Locker threw two interceptions last week and will have to look after the ball if they are to win. I don’t think this is likely, I’m not expecting a great season for the Titans and whilst I’m worried about the points, I backing the Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Ravens @ Browns (+1.5)

I’m impressed with both of these teams but for different reasons. The Browns have a pretty good defence, and having lost to him last season, I respect Brian Hoyer as a solid NFL starter. However, there has been so much dysfunction in the way this team has been managed and I think they are going to struggle to move the ball in this game. I was pretty impressed with the Ravens last week. You can go through the details in my recap of their game against the Steelers (see here), but I think their defence is going to be effective and their offence looked like it was coming together, so I expect a typical AFC North battle with the Ravens coming out on top.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Cowboys @ Rams (+0.5)

The Rams won out in a battle with another of the struggling teams of this season in the Bucs. There is so much talent on defence, but loosing Chris Long to IR designated to return is going to be painful and the offence is not firing at all. The Cowboys defence, much maligned in preseason, seems to be keeping them close enough to win and their offence did enough to win. If Romo can protect the ball then the Cowboys can be competitive. I don’t trust them in the long run but this week I am backing them to beat the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowborys

Dan’s Comments: – I got some stick for picking the Cowboys last week and as it turned out, they won! So I think I’ll stick with them this week. That being said, I’d pick almost anyone against the Rams this season!

Packers @ Lions (-1.5)

The Packers came back against the Jets and won as I expected them to, but as I thought they couldn’t cover the spread. The question remains the defence, and if it can keep them close enough for their offence to win. They did a job against the Jets, but the Lions offence is a different proposition. The Lions got beaten pretty comprehensively by the Panthers last week, and so I am not sure about them. I need to see them to get a feel for how the offence is rolling, but the Panthers have a good defence so I’m prepared to give them a little bit of credit going against the Packers this week. However, the secondary is a question and so it was a little bit strange for them to take a tight end rather than a defensive back in the first round of the draft. I fancy the Packers to win, the Lions seem to have a knack for shooting themselves in the foot, they had a golden chance to win the division last year and didn’t manage it, I fear another middling season for them.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Dan’s Comments: –

Colts @ Jaguars (+6.5)

Urgh. I really hate this line. I’ve been bitten by the Jaguars twice this season and I have re-evaluated my opinion on them. I’ll still be tempted by double digit lines, but until they prove something to me I have to stay away. That said, I’m still not terribly impressed by the Colts, but Andrew Luck is too good to bet against in a game like this. I’m tempted by the points, but I’ve been bitten too many times already this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Patriots (-14.5)

My only concern about this game is the spread. The Patriots looked like themselves again, but the real news is that despite the Raiders bringing in a number of free agents that were meant to bring them up to respectability, things are not going well. It is one thing to lose a close game to the Jets, but getting blown out by the Texans at home is very worrying. If the Texans can win by sixteen at the Raiders, I hope the Patriots can do something similar at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Dan’s Comments: -Pats will win this one quite easily, but not by more than two touchdowns, so I’ll pick Oakland this week.

Interlude for More Important Matters:

One of the next teams, the Vikings, seems to be suffering from the moral compass issues that a number of teams are showing right now. Having suspended Peterson over charges relating to disciplining one of his children with a tree branch for the game on Sunday, he was re-instated Monday before being suspended for the rest of the season after further discussion late Tuesday night in the States, not to mention reaction to his reinstatement. This, along with the Panthers playing Greg Hardy until the Ray Rice suspension despite a conviction for domestic violence awaiting an appeal, the 49ers still playing Ray McDonald despite him being under investigation in another domestic violence case, and whilst in the process of writing this blog Jonathan Dwyer also has been arrested for aggravated assault involved a woman and an 18-month-old child, just go to demonstrate how wrong the NFL has got it. There are issues of due process, but the league could certainly do more by enforcing a more consistent policy that took the decision out of the teams hands, but surely at some point the teams have to consider what a horrible message it sends to allow these players to continue to play in front of millions of viewers instead of being suspended until their cases have been dealt with, then applying appropriate punishments. It would help if Roger Goodell would come out of hiding and actually show some leadership, but that doesn’t seem likely at the moment. The smallest crumb of comfort is that at least the Arizona Cardinals deactivated Dwyer when the charges were brought. Still, it is a pretty tough time to be a fan of the NFL and I just hope that material change is in the works as things cannot continue like this.

Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)

The Vikings got beaten soundly with bad special teams play, an inability to stop the Patriots offence, an offence where Cassel gave the ball away too much, and Cordarrelle Patterson simply didn’t get enough touches. I hope they get this fixed and I have faith in Mike Zimmer, but he’s been dealt a tough hand in the last week with Peterson situation and the way it was handled by the team execs and the league. The Saints have had a pretty horrid start to the season, but they have been away from home for both games and this does make a difference to how they play. I think they will be better this game and I nearly second guessed myself with this pick and went with the Saints, but I’m worried about their defence and I can’t pick a team with two losses to win by eleven or more.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Texans @ Giants (+2.5)

The Giants looked bad and lost, despite Eli Manning playing better than he had. However there are still a lot of problems here and I think I they will lose a lot of games this season. The Texans have been pretty solid on offence, have managed to avoid beating themselves and have one of my favourite players. Apart from his usual tackles and sacks, JJ Watt also has a blocked extra point and a touchdown reception whilst playing as a tight end this season. I know they’re away from home, but I fancy them to continue their good run this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Dan’s Comments: – think Gee’s Man Crush JJ Watt will have another good week this week and lead the Texans to a good win.

Washington @ Eagles (-6.5)

Washington are better than I thought they were going to be, and whilst the Jaguars have added some gloss to their defensive stats, the defence has been solid so far. The offence did better this week, despite losing RG3 to a dislocated ankle that he picked up without contact. I’m not sure if we’re ever going to see the dynamic player of his rookie season again, I hope that he finds his way, but even athletically talented people don’t always have the type of body that holds up to the rigours of football. It does appear that Kirk Cousins is more comfortable in the offence as a drop back passer but it will take time to see if he can be a full time starter and sadly he’s going to get it. I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and so far, they have dealt with setbacks and some rotation on their offensive line to win both of their games. Whilst I think that Washington are better than I previously gave them credit for, I like the Eagles for the win and I just hope they cover as well.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

49ers @ Cardinals(+2.5)

It is pretty impressive that the Cardinals were able to win without Carson Palmer last week, but I liked their defence in preseason and it seems to be holding up so far this season. There were already problems for the 49ers with injuries and suspensions, so they could ill afford for Kaepernick to throw three interceptions. I think that there’s too much talent on their roster for them to be bad, but right now their depth is getting sorely tested and I think this is one the games that’s going to get away from them.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Broncos @ Seahawks (-4.5)

A repeat of the Super Bowl in week three and a game that everyone can look forward to. The Seahawks may have lost last week, but it was in stifling heat and their offence was moving the ball, it’s just that the Chargers did an incredible job of sustaining long drives to keep them on the sideline. For the Broncos this season has been a case of job done so far. They have not shined like last year, but they are beating the teams in front of them. I think that if this game was being played in any other venue that it would be a really close game, but with the Seahawks playing at home after a loss I think they are going to look more like the team that dismantled a good Packers team. The Broncos have a better defence, but I don’t think they have enough for this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Dan’s Comments: – Replay of February’s Superbowl, but this time, the Broncos will take it.

Chiefs @ Dolphins (-4.5)

What do I do here? The Chiefs are sinking. Too many injuries and they have not looked good despite what I had seen previous. The problem is that the Dolphins have a good win against the Patriots and then lose to the Bills. I don’t know if the Bills are good, but I know that the questions surrounding Tannehill are genuine and I’m not sure how he’s going to go here. I feel fairly comfortable that the Dolphins are going to win, but that line is just high enough to make me think twice about it. However, in the end I’m going with my first instinct.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: -You’ll probably notice I’ve picked the Dolphins every week so far. What can I say – I’m a hopeful man!

Bonus Dan content: – I haven’t had a chance to watch the Dolphins @ Bills game so I asked Dan for his thoughts which I present here:

Watching the Dolphins this week was quite difficult to do, not least because we were so poor on the Offensive side of the ball. Ryan Tannehill looked quite panicky at times, and I really can’t blame him with the regularity of our offensive line collapses. That being said, you could argue that the Bills’ defensive unit is one of the best in the league at the minute, but having given our offensive line a complete overhaul in the off-season, I really would expect them to stand up much better than they did in Week 2.

Along with that, Tannehill was really struggling to move the ball through the air. This was especially evident during the first half when we failed to get into Bills territory (in fact, it wasn’t until nearly 3 minutes into the second half before we advanced past the 50). It was also Quarter 3 before he managed to make a completion to Brian Hartline, who was his go-to guy last year. All in all, it was a difficult game on the ground too. Having been the league’s top runner in Week One, Knowshon Moreno lasted no longer than a few minutes this week and looks like he may be out for at least a couple of games. Lamar Miller looked pretty banged up by the end of the game too. It seems to me as though unless Tannehill starts to really connect and form a good partnership with a couple of his receivers, it could be a difficult few weeks in moving the ball.

Defensively, we weren’t all that bad – I certainly don’t think their high-ish score was reflective of their performance. We weren’t helped by an extremely good kick-off return being run back for a touchdown in the third quarter. Honestly, I’m an offence guy (I used to be a Full Back) but I defy anyone to talk to Gee about American football for any period of time without getting excited about defence, and I’m actually quite impressed with how they’ve been over the first couple of games.

If we can get our O to match our D, we’ll be there or there abouts come the end of the sea

Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)

I was wrong about the Panthers. Their re-tooled offensive line is working and their defence is holding up really well. The Steelers don’t look right to me and whilst I’m not saying that they will be bad, I don’t think they’re going to be good either. It’s always dangerous to discount them, but I think the Panthers continue their good start to the year.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bears @ Jets (-2.5)

I have a strange amount of faith in Rex Ryan’s defence, even with the questions in the secondary and Geno Smith continues to develop as a quarterback. The Jets are 2-0 against the spread, ever if I didn’t pick them both weeks. The concern here is that they were facing a bad Raiders team in week 1 and had the points in the Packers. The Bears did well to win last week, but they are struggling in run defence, had gimpy receivers and are shuffling offensive lineman. This is another line that I’m really hesitant on so I’m sticking with my gut and picking the Jets to run on the Bears, find a way to get stops on defence and win the game. I’m not exactly confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Dan’s Comments: – Sorry Jets fans, I think it’s 0-3 for you! (Editor’s note, I will be impressed if this happens given that the Jets are currently 1-1, I don’t think they’re going to lose so badly to the Bears that the league are going to deduct a win)

NFL Week 2 Steelers @ Ravens Recap

14 Sunday Sep 2014

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This week I wrote myself into picking the Steelers, my first instinct being that I couldn’t see the Ravens losing their opening two games. However, as I wrote up my pick, I overreacted to the opening games and the swirl of press around the Ravens, so I took the Steelers as the known quantity. I was wrong.

I’m still amazed, that a team that is usually so well run as the Ravens dropped the ball so horrendously in the Ray Rice case. From what the press are saying, Ray Rice didn’t deceive them about what happened, so it was only when the video was leaked and it became a perception issue did the leadership of the team finally taking action. This is just not good enough.

So what did the coach’s tape tell me about this game? My focus for these teams were for the Steelers centre Maurkice Pouncey and rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier; whilst for the Ravens it was their offensive line, Terrell Suggs, and Torrey Smith.

Usually these games are close, but the Ravens came out twenty point winners. On my first watch of the condensed broadcast feed I was impressed with how much better the Ravens offence played, the o-line was good with free agent signings Steve Smith and Owen Daniels looking good. Their defence held up very well, not conceding a touchdown with only Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell catching the eye for the Steelers. The other thing I noticed was the nine penalties for seventy five yards that the Steelers gave away, of which a lot were on defence and whilst I appreciate tough defence, the Steelers are going to have to adapt to the new NFL rules if they’re going to get back to the playoffs.

As far as Maurkice Pouncey went, I am not an expert on line play, but although he looked athletic, he was helped out a lot by the guards as singled up against a tackle he seemed prone to being driven back. However, he was often helped out so this wasn’t a problem and it’ll be interesting to see how this stacks up against other centres as I get to spend more time watching coaching tape. I will say that I was very impressed with left guard Ramon Foster, and it will be nice to be able to vote for Pro Bowl players on the lines with a bit more knowledge.

It is often said that it can take a couple of seasons to bed in a linebacker into Dick LeBeau’s defence, but Ryan Shazier has come in to start straight away. Playing at the weak inside linebacker sport, the Steelers are trying to make the best of his speed and he certainly showcased that several time. He also looks to be a good tackler, making a couple of very solid open field tackles. There were a couple of times where he filled a hole but missed the tackle or made what looked a bad decision to cut through the line, but his is a rookie and I’m only just starting to look at the tape so I don’t know how common this is. I think the Steelers have the making of really good player here, and with Timmons next to him they look set at inside linebacker. My concern for them on defence is that there are still a lot of older players out there and I didn’t see much from their defensive line or outside backers that jumped off the tape.

As a bonus player focus, Antonio Brown really caught my eye on offense, running some very nice routes whilst catching seven balls for ninety yards and was much better than I realised.

For the Ravens, the o-line looked very solid and whilst nothing really leapt out, they did a really good job of protecting Flacco and running the ball. I was meant to be focussing on Torrey Smith, but frankly on this week’s tape he was supplanted by Steve Smith. Torrey managed a good play to draw a pass interference call on the Ravens’ first drive that lead to a touchdown, but he only had one catch for ten yards. However, Steve Smith seems to have become Flaccos new go to receiver catching six balls for seventy one yards, playing with a recognisable fire and finding holes in the coverage.

The final thing I want to mention about the Ravens’ offence is that part of Flacco’s trouble last year was losing Dennis Pitta for much of the season as he is often Flacco’s safety valve. The tight end is becoming a key position in the modern NFL and between Pitta, and Owen Daniels who comes in already knowing new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s system, the Raven looks well set for the season barring injuries.

On defence, I was focussing on Terrell Suggs, who can often be identified by his side on stance at outside linebacker. He looked to have a solid game, but was outshined by Elvis Dumervil who had two sacks, first going round right tackle Marcus Gilbert to get the Ravens first sack of the season, and for his second going straight through Gilbert again in a seriously impressive play.

The other play that was pretty amazing, was watching a player of Halot Ngata’s size (six foot four and well over 300 Ibs) leap up in the air to tip a ball, locate it, and then dive to make the interception. It really shouldn’t be possible for someone that big to move like that.

In conclusion, the Ravens played a lot better this week and I think that there’ll be in contention for the AFC North all season as they stand now. I’m worried about how the Steelers are run, between their cap management in recent year, their age, and their adaptation to the modern NFL. I see them as a shade down in standard than the Ravens, but as I can see the Bengals joining these two teams at 1-1 this week, so I wouldn’t count them out yet.

NFL Week 2 Picks

11 Thursday Sep 2014

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So after the week 1 picks I am a single game ahead of Dan. I’m happy that both of our teams won their first game and my favourite pick of last week was getting the Texans (-2.5) over Washington right. So here are our picks for week 2.

Steelers @ Ravens (-2.5)

The Steelers were run close by the Browns last week, but I think the Browns will do this to a few teams over the course of the season so I am not too worried about that. The Ravens’ offence, and Flacco in particular, seemed to be misfiring against the Bengals, and that was before the whirlwind of attention that now surrounds them. I don’t know if the players will rally round each other or fall apart so I’m picking the known quantity and taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comment: – The Browns took the Steelers really close in Week one, but I can’t see Baltimore doing the same this week.

Falcons @ Bengals (-5.5)

I said last week that the Saints @ Falcons game was probably a trap, and then I walked straight into it. In fairness, I think that this is a mistake that a lot of people made. The Falcons looked really good with Matt Ryan reminding people of just what a good quarterback he can be. The Bengals made a good start to their season with a win in Baltimore. I didn’t like the red zone woes that led to five field goals, but the touchdown to win was what this team needs to win in the playoffs, they have to perform under pressure. I see this as a close game that the Bengals will win, but I think the Falcons will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Dan’s Comment: – Difficult to pick this one, I think it’ll be close.

Dolphins @ Bills (+0.5)

I thought that the Dolphins were in for a good season, but I hadn’t accounted for the Patriots woes travelling to Miami and whilst I begrudge losing a point to Dan based on a pick of blind hope, I’m still happy for him. The Bills had a good win against the Bears, but I don’t know if I trust them or how much of their win was good play, and how much was problems with the Bears. Right now I trust the Dolphins more and so that’s where I’m picking.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Dan’s Comment: – We beat the Patriots last week so the Bills should be a walk-over…!

Saints @ Browns (+6.5)

The Saints lost a game last week in overtime, but there was a bad interception and a fumble from their offence. We know who they this team are on that side of the ball and I don’t see them having those problems again. However, the Browns covered their spread last week, have a tough defence and whilst I think they will fall short of a win, I think they might just cover in a loss.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cowboys @ Titans (-3.5)

Last week I was rewarded by not trusting the Cowboys. The narrative surrounding them before the season was that their offence was going to be good because it had to be. However, although offensive their line looked good, Tony Romo did not, and the Cowboys were 21-3 down before the end of the first quarter. This shouldn’t necessarily be surprising as Romo’s own QB coach was saying in preseason that his deep ball didn’t look good and that it was due to his back. Their defence did play a little better than expected, but at the risk of overreacting to week 1, I think it is going to a pretty miserable season for the Cowboys. The Titans came out last week and were better than solid. Jake Locker did some good things, they have a good set of young receivers and they took care of the Kansas City Chiefs whilst playing in one of the more difficult stadiums for visiting teams. I think I know which way this game is going.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers won last week despite having Cam Newton held out, their defence continued to be great and they were better than many feared. However, the Lions also got off to a good start with a good win over the Giants. I haven’t really got a great feel for either team, but the early numbers from Football Outsiders has the Lions three places above the Panthers, combine this with getting points and I’m going with the Lions again.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Patriots @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Patriots’ long term line coach retires, the Patriots trade away Logan Mankins, and they have line problems with Brady picking himself off the ground more than usual. I don’t know if these things are actually connected, but they feel like they are. I’m fighting myself a little as Coach Belichick doesn’t lose consecutive games often, but I think I’m taking the points again. The Vikings looked good, Norv Turner made excellent use of Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Zimmer know how to build defences. I could regret this, but I’m backing the Vikings at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Dan’s Comment: -Fingers crossed for an early fall-apart for the Patriots!

Cardinals @ Giants (-1.5)

I’m surprised the Giants are giving points and not getting them I’ve seen nothing on either side of the ball to make me thing that there going to have anything but a difficult year. The Cardinals however, are looking pretty good, being solid on both sides of the ball and I think they are going to win this one handily.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Jaguars @ Washington (-5.5)

The Jaguars came out and were 17-0 up at half time against the Eagles and whilst they didn’t cover, they showed the promise I thought was building in Jacksonville and given that number of points I would pick them again. This week they come up against a Washington team that I think are struggling, and whilst I think they may progress during the season, I don’t think this is going to be a quick process and so for the second straight week I’m picking the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Rams @ Buccaneers (-5.5)

There is so much talent in the front seven of the Rams and I think their pass rush is really good, but they are also dead last in the early season rankings at Football Outsiders and got beaten convincingly by the Vikings last week. The Buccaneers didn’t win as I thought they would, but I think that is partly because the Panthers were not as bad as many predicted, and whilst they’re only four places higher than the Rams according to Football Outsiders, they are a pretty whopping 49.3 percentage points ahead.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Dan’s Comment: – I’ll put this out there – I think this’ll be a terrible game.

Seahawks @ Chargers (+5.5)

I was so impressed with the Seahawks last week, and even though they do have an impressive home advantage, I can’t look past them in this game. I think the Chargers have a really good offence and are in for a great year, but I think the Seahawks will win this game and continue to be the team to beat.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick       Seahawks

Chiefs @ Broncos (-13.5)

Oh the poor Chiefs. I think I was just wrong on this one, they lost two starters on defence to achilles tears during the game, and Alex Smith started throwing interceptions. I think their start of the season was pretty disastrous, they need to run Jamaal Charles more, and going to the Broncos is not the place where they can start turning their season round. The Broncos started the season really well and in this game I’m only worried about the number of points they’re giving.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick       Broncos

Jets @ Packers (-8.5)

The Packers had problems on the line, but were facing an exceptional defence in a very difficult stadium to play in. I don’t think it is panic time yet, but the question is whether their defence can be good enough for them to win games as the offence will do better most weeks. The Jets won against the Raiders but the score wasn’t exceptional, and whilst my instinct is that Rex Ryan will find a way to keep it close, their secondary is the polar opposite to the Seahawks and I think that Rodgers will get their season going. I may regret this but I’ll go against the points this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick       Packers

Dan’s Comment: – Packers out for revenge this week. Heavy win in week two.

Texans @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Texans got their season off to a win, even without Jadeveon Clowney who went down with a meniscus tear. This is because JJ Watt is just amazing, and whilst there are still question about their offence, I know which way I’m going with this game. I think there are signs that things might turn around for the Raiders, but whilst they may have a strong showing, I don’t think they have enough to beat the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick       Texans

Bears @ 49ers (-7.5)

I hate the line for this game. The Bears struggled in week 1, demonstrating how much their good health on offence helped them last season, and reminding us of some of dangers in Cutler’s decision making. The 49ers had a good win against the Cowboys, but the injuries and suspensions still means they could have problems and I’m not sure how much we really learnt in week 1 due to the Cowboys’ problems. I think the 49ers will win this game, but I’m worried about the points. I’m going with my first instincts thought so I’m taking the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick       Bears

Eagles @ Colts (-2.5)

I underestimated just how good Andrew Luck is, but the team has just lost its best pass rusher before he can even play a game and I’m still not convinced by them overall. The Eagles may be shuffling their offence line and Nick Foles has begun to return to a human number of interceptions, but they stuck an unanswered 34 points on the Jaguars in the second half last week and I remain a believer in Chip Kelly.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick       Colts

Dan’s Comment: – Colts took the Broncos much closer than people expected last weekend so maybe another good game with the Eagles.

The Domestic Violence Problem in the NFL

10 Wednesday Sep 2014

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It has been a slightly strange week, and I am meant to be writing my Week 2 Picks blog, but I don’t feel I can get started until I have addressed something that simply can’t be ignored. I’ll get back to writing about my competition with Dan and what’s going on around the league shortly, but first I have to address the recent news surrounding the Baltimore Ravens.

It is not actually news that the NFL has a problem with women. The league’s handling of previous incidences of domestic violence has not exactly been progressive, and the two game ban that was given to Ray Rice this summer was widely criticised at the time. I have not watched the video of him dragging his unconscious, then fiancé now wife, out of an elevator. Nor have I watched the video released on Monday by TMZ that showed him punching his wife to render her unconscious. Finally stung into action, the Baltimore Ravens have released him from their roster and the NFL have belatedly suspended him indefinitely, whilst they figure out what they can do. I have no wish to watch these videos; the bare facts in words are enough information for me.

I have a lot of thoughts on this situation. Things to do with the rookie program, the structure of society, the actions of both the Ravens and the league, and the repeated incidents of still active NFL players. The problem is that I don’t feel qualified to write them yet. One of the famous tenants of the Hippocratic Oath is to do no harm. I had got as far as beginning to research guidance for writing about domestic violence before the events of Monday. I was already aware that I was skirting around the issue when writing about Rice’s suspension last week, but I had not had a chance to study the documents I had found properly, and frankly what the world needs least right now is another unqualified person sounding off.

Frankly this isn’t good enough. My sister in law writes frequently about feminism and her twitter feed (and by extension mine) is an education. I don’t know always know where I stand when reading these articles, and I am fairly certain that men telling women what to do, think, and behave is how we got into this mess in the first place, but, I do believe in equality. I believe there are structural problems in our society affecting many people who are not lucky enough to be white middle class men, and we have to address them.

What the NFL needs to do is to address the issue of domestic violence directly, not with a hastily brought out new domestic violence policy, but with people taking responsibility for their previous actions, and a proper review that involves talking to people who know the issues at hands intimately and know what the proper response is. There is an aspect of the culture that goes with the game that I love, that is simply not acceptable to anyone with a sense of fairness. It’s not unique to the sport of American Football, but that does not mean we shouldn’t make a stand. It means those of us who love the league, taking a long hard look at ourselves and fighting against those aspects that are abhorrent to us.

For me this means I have a lot of reading and research to do. This problem is not going to just go away and so I want to be in a position to write effectively and safely about it the next time it happens, and the next time, and then again, until hopefully one day we don’t have to do this any more because we really shouldn’t have to.

NFL Week 1: Packers @ Seahawks Recap

07 Sunday Sep 2014

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I thoroughly enjoyed the first game of the season. I have been through most of the coach’s tape, and it opens up a whole new world of things to look at, sadly I am limited by boring things like having a life, but here is what I took away from the game.

My things to watch list for these teams contained Aaron Rodgers, AJ Hawk, and Clay Mathews for the Packers; and for the Seahawks it was their secondary and Russell Wilson. I added watching how Julius Peppers would rush standing up as a linebacker.

We know that the Seahawks defence is good, but it really was excellent in this game. On the all twenty two tape it was easy to see how Earl Campbell sat deep and played the whole field, whilst the corners covered their side, and Kam Chancellor roved depending on the coverage called. Richard Sherman clearly had his receiver covered, but the Packers basically gave up on his side of the field as Rodgers hardly looked right all game. This was so obvious that I spotted it in the broadcast coverage whilst watching the condensed game, and it turns out that Sherman wasn’t targeted once all game. I can’t help but feel that you have to challenge Sherman somehow if you are going to beat the Seahawks, although I freely admit I wouldn’t know how.

You could see glimpses of what makes Rodgers so good, the arm, his manoeuvrability, but also that in being willing to hold onto the ball to make a pay, he takes sacks that he doesn’t have to. In fairness, the interception was not his fault, the ball bounced off the hands of his receiver and was well picked off by Byron Maxwell. The Packers struggled to move the ball and in the first half their two scores came from large chunks that were not successful plays on their part. The first came of a long pass interference call on Bobby Wagner and the second from recovered punt where Richared Sherman blocked his man into Earl Campbell, demonstrating that the pair of outstanding defensive backs are human after all.

The killer plays for the Packers were the two consecutive offensive plays in the third quarter where backup tackle Derek Sherrod gave up sacks. The first play was on fourth and five, with the Seahawks only rushing four and yet somehow they didn’t account for Cliff Avril at left defensive end, who came barely touched to sack Rodgers. There’s no way for me to know the play call or the protection, but although James Starks was on that right side of Rodgers in a shotgun formation, on the snap of the ball, after barely a pause, Starks runs a curl through the line, whilst Sherrod without having looked outside of him focuses on the tackle over him and then tries too late to stop Avril who is already past him. That’s the drive done and the Seahawks get the ball. The Seahawks don’t drive the ball successfully so after five plays they punt the ball. However, on the first play of the next drive, on the Packers own three yard line, Michael Bennet blows past Sherrod to get a strip sack that leads to a safety. These were not the first time that I saw Sherrod beaten this game, let’s hope this doesn’t become a long term problem.

The Packers do manage a nice drive in the fourth quarter to get a touchdown, with a failed two point conversion, but by then it is too late. We shouldn’t overreact to the first game of the season, it’s not exactly unprecedented for the Seahawks to be excellent on defence or beat teams handily at home, but it will be interesting to see how the Packers offence goes the rest of the season.

On offence for the Seahawks, I loved what they did with Russell Wilson, who is not your prototypical pocket passer and is only five foot eleven. However, he is very careful with the ball and the Seahawks put him in position to make plays, by using his manoeuvrability. The very real running threat make their read option plays dangerous, helped by just how good Marshawn Lynch is as a running back. This accounted for both of their first half touchdowns. The first was my favourite play on offence of the game. Russell Wilson first fakes the hand off to Marshawn Lynch then tucks the ball as if to run, but when corner Sam Shields bites on the play as a run, Wilson then pulls up and flips a pass to Ricardo Lockette who runs in the TD. For the second touchdown, Clay Mathews was staring into the backfield during the handoff, and gets sealed by the tight end Luke Williams coming across the line unseen so Mathews can’t make the tackle to stop Lynch running it in.

Marshawn Lynch is so good, very light on his feet and makes his cuts so well. I also love Eddie Lacy, whose cuts are so violent, but in this game he was bottled up by the Seahawks defence, but there were two great backs in this game.

It was harder to get a read on the Packers defence. Time will tell, but although I saw a couple of good plays from Peppers and Mathews, nothing really leapt at me. The one thing that the all twenty two did reveal on the Packers defence was how Percy Harvin got so open in the first half, which was when Morgan Burnett ran into linebacker AJ Hawk, allowing Harvin to get open for a thirty three yard gain.

Overall I wouldn’t be panicking just yet if I was a Packers fan, but I might be lowering my expectations a little after some of the bullish talk that was surrounding them during pre-season. The Seahawks looked like the team who have dominated at home in recent years and I expect them to go well again this season as long as they avoid the injury bug.

NFL Week 1 Picks

04 Thursday Sep 2014

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This year I will be attempting to pick all of the games against the spread as I find it a useful way of helping me confirm what I think about teams. It is also a useful way of demonstrating the dangers of gambling as it is very hard to get them right, and the NFL just isn’t that predictable. Thanks to the blog, I have roped in my friend Dan to be picking with me in a friendly competition (for the record his parting shot was, “Not this season as it’s my first time. Next season you’re going down!”) and we’re taking our lines from the ESPN Pigskin Pick’em so feel free to join us here and show us up.

Packers @ Seahawks (-5.5)

This game gave me a little pause, before I considered what the Seahawks did to the Broncos in the Super Bowl, the number of players they have coming back, and that they have one of the best home advantages in the league. The Packers are going to be good this season, but their defence needs to hold up for the entire season despite losing BJ Raji to injury already, and there are more on they way.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Saints @ Falcons (-1.5)

This one seems fairly straight forward and so is probably a trap, but the Saints looked really strong in preseason and the Falcons went 4-12 last season. The Falcons will be better this year, but I don’t think they’ll be starting the year with a win.

Gee’s Picke:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bills @ Bears (-6.5)

I am worried about the Bills. I really didn’t like them moving up to grab a receiver when they’re not already a good team (frankly I don’t like giving up picks much anyway, but certainly not high picks), and they are not set at quarterback. I think they’re going to miss Mike Pettine as their defensive coordinator so I can see that side of the ball taking a step back. There are problems with the Bears defence, but they’ll be better than last year and the offence will be good again as long as Cutler can stay on the field so for me this is an easy pick this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick       Bears

Bengals @ Ravens (-2.5)

I suspect that I am going to be wrong both ways on the Bengals all season depending on how they go and my fan reaction to it, but I believe that they’re going to be good. I respect the way that the Ravens are run, and I’m sure they will be better this year, but I think Flacco is overpaid for his production, I’m not sure about their offensive line, and with Ray Rice suspended, I think their offence is going to struggle. And I’m getting points!

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick       Bengals

Dan’s Comment: – “This’ll be extremely close. I could see that one going either way.”

Browns @ Steelers (-5.5)

I think the Browns are going to be a tough side to beat this year as their defence was good last year, and with Pettine as their head coach I think they will be better. However, with Josh Gordon suspended and the mess at quarterback I don’t see them improving their record much. I don’t like the way the Steelers have managed their cap in recent years, which feels weird to say for a franchise that historically has been so well run, but they’ve held on to too many of their guys on big contracts. Still, Tomlin is a good coach, I love Dick LeBeau as a coordinator and I think they will be there or there about all season. I think the Browns will be good for some underdog covers, but not this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick       Steelers

Dan’s Comment: – “I don’t think the Johnny Football effect will be enough for Browns to pick up the Win in this one.”

Titans @ Chiefs (-6.5)

A lot of people are saying that this is a regression season for the Chiefs, and I can see the argument due to their easy schedule last year and some of the things that have happened so far this year. However, although no one likes picking him, Alex Smith wins games; Dontari Poe is one of my favourite defensive players; and Jamaal Charles is a beast. There are problems with receivers, but I’m not scared of this team. On the other side, I have no feel for the Titans at all and whilst they may well be solid, I’m going to need to see more from them before I pick them. I’m worried about the points, and I may regret this, but I’m going with the Chiefs.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick       Chiefs

Raiders @ Jets (-4.5)

I think the Raiders are in for another tough season, but I was interested to see that they’re starting Derek Carr, and combined with Khalil Mack, that makes two interesting reasons to look at the Raiders. How long has it been since you could say that? However, whilst there are questions about their pass defence and Geno Smith’s development, the Jets should have enough to cover those points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick       Jets

Dan’s Comment: – “I feel horrible going for the Jets here, but just can’t see the Raiders getting out of the blocks before about week 3.”

Vikings @ Rams (-6.5)

That’s a lot of points for the Rams and they don’t have their starting quarterback. Their defence is going to be tough with a terrific pass rush, but it’s going to be a long season for the Rams. I have no idea what the Vikings’ record is going to be like, but I think Mike Zimmer will have them playing much better and I think this is a good way for them to start the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick       Vikings

Dan’s Comment: – “Easy win for the Vikings this week (which will make my dad very happy!)”

Patriots @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Dolphins are another team that I think are on the rise, but I’m not sure how that is going to translate in terms of their record. The Patriots however, had a nice offseason and the Dolphins do not have the best home record, which may change but not in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick       Dolphins

Dan’s Comment: – “Dolphins picked out of pure blind hope!”

Jaguars @ Eagles (-11.5)

I’m all in on Chip Kelly, and I think the Eagles are going to have a great year and I’m looking forward to seeing them. I also think that Gus Bradley is doing a good job of turning round the Jaguars and whilst I’m not predicting a playoff record, I think they will be tough team to play. I think the Eagles win, but I’m going for the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick       Eagles

Washington @ Texans (-2.5)

I’m not convinced by Washington. I’m not at all sure about their defence and the new offensive scheme is taking time to bed in as RG3 have never been asked to be a pocket passer before. I don’t know if this is going to work out or not, but I don’t think it is going to happen in week 1. The Texans have Ryan Fitzpatrick and this should scare me, but they also have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. I repeat, JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney! This maybe my excitement over those two on the same team getting the better of me, but I think there’s too much talent on this team for a repeat of last years record. Again, I’m not saying playoffs, but I think the turnaround starts here.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick       Washington

49ers @ Cowboys (+4.5)

I think the 49ers are in for a tough year. They lost players, have important players suspended, and have been to the last three conference championship games. I think they are too deep and too well run to have a disaster, but they are in a division where they will beat the hell out of each other. The Cowboys are relying on their offence this year as the already bad defence has got worse. I’m really not sure what is going to happen in this game, and I should take the points, but I trust the 49ers and not the Cowboys. I think the 49ers will win this one and I’m hoping by enough points.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick       49ers

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

I like the Buccaneers this year. These are another of my improved teams, this one being a major potential case of WARM or wins above Raheem Morris, a faux statistical term invented by Bill Simmons to cover a team’s improvement accounted for by having a competent coach follow the firing of a bad one. Last year’s Chiefs were a great example of this and I think under Lovie Smith, a proven coach the Bucs will take big steps forward. The Panthers on the other hand, have walked into a salary cap nightmare after making the playoffs last season. Their line is bad, their receivers are bad and I think they are going to take a step back this year, starting in Tampa this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick       Panthers

Colts @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos appear to have looked at the tape of the Super Bowl, taken note and addressed their defence and what went wrong, having themselves what looks like a really good offseason. This maybe the year where age catches up with Peyton Manning, but he’s earned our trust until he can’t do it any more. The Colts might be covering more holes with Andrew Luck’s great play than many realise. This is a team that traded away a first round pick for the Brown’s possible first round bust in Trent Richardson. In the modern NFL, you don’t need to pick running backs in the first round, yet alone effectively have two teams do it. I could be wrong on this as you shouldn’t underestimate Andrew Luck, but I don’t think so this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick       Colts

Dan’s Comment: – “I think the Broncos will win, but there’ll be less than a TD in it!”

Giants @ Lions (-4.5)

I don’t trust either of these teams. The Giants are a shell of themselves, the offence is a work in progress and Eli Manning might not be a serviceable quarterback anymore. The Lions had a golden chance to win their division last year, and blew it with their characteristic ill disciplined play. A team that is loaded with talent, they would be a prime candidate for a WARM revival, but Jim Caldwell doesn’t’ exactly inspire confidence. However, there is still a lot of talent so whilst I may regret going against the points, I’m going with the talent.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick       Giants

Chargers @ Cardinals (-3.5)

I am not as down on the Cardinals as some appear to be. There defence seemed to hold up pretty well against the Bengals in preseason despite it’s losses and there some interesting receiver prospects lining up to follow Fitzgerald, but they still have Carson Palmer facing some serious defences (and pass rushes) just in their own division. However, I think the Chargers are going to be good again this year. A defence that is likely to improve towards league average from their 32nd ranking in defensive DVOA and an offence that is likely to stay good. I’m pretty confident of a Chargers win even before I get points

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick       Chargers

Dan’s Comment: “Not a great season predicted for the Cardinals I’m afraid!”

So that’s our first week ready to go, let’s see how things pan out in the games.

Michael Sam signed to a Practice Squad

03 Wednesday Sep 2014

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I am really pleased to see that Michael Sam has been signed to the practice squad of the Dallas Cowboys. Although he didn’t jump out at me in the games I saw, it was hard to focus on his play on the standard broadcast view that I was limited to, and I thought that with the number of sacks and tackles he recorded, he was worth a place in the league somewhere and boy do the Cowboys need pass rushing options.

I don’t know if he’ll make it onto the field, but he’s earned more time to get there and I hope it works out for him.