Monthly Archives: October 2021

2021 Week 8 Picks

31 Sunday Oct 2021

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The Thursday night game was tense and went to the wire, but between injuries and Covid-19 it maybe never truly took off. Both sides were dealing with injuries, the Green Bay Packers lost perhaps the best receiver in the NFL as well as their defensive coordinator to the Covid-19 list, whilst the Cardinals were already dealing with JJ Watt gone for the rest of the season and the loss of their starting centre Max Garcia before DeAndre Hopkins aggravated a hamstring injury that had put him on the injury report during the week. The Packers perhaps unsurprisingly focussed on running the ball and dominated the time of possession as Aaron Rodgers found himself dealing with an increased number of drops and unusually managing the offence rather than being the fulcrum. We shall have to see how much the loss of JJ Watt and other injuries hurt the Cardinals defence over the coming weeks, but after a spectacular route where Hopkins slowed and then used a burst of pace to get away from the Packer’s corner to catch a deep pass he tweaked his hamstring and came out the game. Kyler Murray threw for two hundred and fifty yards but no touchdowns and two interceptions, the last of which saw Murray on the wrong page with AJ Green and Rasul Douglas sealed the 24-21 win for the Packers inside his own end zone.

It will be a hard loss for the Cardinals to take, and even though they are in a very good position, they will need to regroup and come out firing given how the injury list has grown recently. The Packers lost tight end Robert Tonyan to an ACL tear in this game, but will get Devante Adams back from the Covid-19 and you would expect them to keep finding ways to win this game. The Packers are in complete control of their division, while the Cardinals are looking back at the 6-1 Rams but with how the teams are positioned in the NFC it would be a surprise to see the Cardinals slip out of contention and there could very easily be a rematch of this contest in the playoffs come January.

Early Games:

The early games are a bit of a mixed bag. It was always going to be tough to compete with the Thursday night game this week, but for me the tie of the early games is the Tennessee Titans heading to their divisional rivals the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans are coming off wins against the Bills and the Chiefs having won three straight and look to have found themselves whilst the Colts are two games back have won three out of their last four games following an 0-3 start to the season. The DVOA rankings still don’t like the Titans, placing them twentieth overall while the Colts are fifteenth, but the interesting thing is the consensus line sees the Colts as favourites, whilst in our competition the Colts are getting points. That’s usually an almost certain pick opposite to the consensus but the Titans offence has found its feet again in the last few weeks having started slowly under new offensive coordinator Todd Downing, and whilst Carson Wentz has looked better with Frank Reich’s Colts as he recovers from his various early season injuries, he still looks to be a player who tries to do too much. I could be wrong as this game pits Derick Henry against the Colts’ best in the league rush defence by DVOA, but it was Ryan Tannehill who dominated the Chiefs last week and I’m not that convinced by the Colts offence just yet.

Points from the rest:

  • The Falcons have thought their way back to 3-3 and are actually above the Panthers in the NFC South thanks to having a bye and only having three losses with rookie tight end Kyle Pitts finding his way in the last couple of games. The Panthers are really struggling without Christian McCaffery and for the second straight season their newly acquired quarterback is not doing what they hoped. After a promising start Sam Darnold has reverted to type and was sat down during the game last week so it’s hard to have faith in a team slipping back as they are.
  • The Bills are incredibly healthy on defence and ranked first by DVOA, which is also their overall ranking. The Dolphins are struggling on defence mightily, which is a bit of surprise given how they’ve been previously under Brian Flores’s tenure with the team, while Tua Tagovailoa has shown promise in the last couple of weeks but has to cut out the silly interceptions. I wonder if the Dolphins will keep it closer than the huge line, but Dan was very firm that the Bills always beat the Dolphins and it is hard to predict an upset in this one.
  • I thought the Bears would do better against the Buccaneers than the line suggested last week but I was very wrong. The problem this week is that they welcome a 49ers team who have not exactly been great either and are struggling with their own quarterback play. I’m a bit hesitant to make a call on this one with the Bears getting so many points at home, but some of the numbers say 49ers so that’s where I’m picking.
  • I am really not sure what to make of the Steelers as much as I love Mike Tomlin. Their defence is still top ten but the offence has really not improved from last year. A trip to Cleveland is an odd proposition at the moment given how beat up the Browns offence is while their defence is not quite living up to what we expected coming into the season. This could be one I get very wrong as I’m going against the numbers but coming off a bye I’m edging to the Steelers to keep this one within a field goal.
  • The Eagles are not a good football team, and neither are the Lions but it feels like the Lions are at least committed to their coach Dan Campbell and if the Lions are going to get a win this season then this has to be one of their best opportunities.
  • The line worries me a little in the Bengals visit to the Jets, but the Bengals beat the Lions soundly when they were meant to and then beat the Ravens the following week. I’m hoping they are too new to winning to be complacent against the Jets, but they should win this one, even if they don’t manage the trouncing the Patriots pulled off last week.
  • The only interest I had in the Texans against the Rams would have come if Tyrod Taylor was going get back on the field, but as it looks like he is still not going to play because of his hamstring injury you can only see the Rams winning this one. Surprises happen but you need more at quarterback than what rookie Davis Mills can provide to cover this line yet alone win.

Panthers @ Falcons (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Dolphins @ Bills (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

49ers @ Bears (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Steelers @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Eagles @ Lions (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Titans @ Colts (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Bengals @ Jets (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Rams @ Texans (+14.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Late Games:

There are two particularly interesting games in the late slate. The Patriots at Chargers should be a good test of both the Patriots defence going against Justin Herbert and whether they can take anything from the blueprint the Ravens used to so thoroughly beat the Chargers before their bye last week, and what rookie quarterback Mac Jones can do against Brandon Staley’s defence. It is interesting that for all the two high looks that Staley’s success with he Rams last seasons seems to have brought to the league, the Chargers defence is only ranked sixteenth in the league and there do look to be flaws in the Chargers offence though Herbert continues to impress. I can totally understand the Chargers being favourites, but this line seems high to me even if the Pats only wins so far this season have come against the Jets and Texans.

The other late game I’m particularly interested in is the Buccaneers visit to the Saints, which I have set as my pick for Dan to watch this week. I’m mostly keen to see whether the Saints defence can continue the success they enjoyed in the regular season last year against Brady, or whether the Bucs have moved on so much that last season is immaterial. The Bucs offence currently ranks first by DVOA whilst the Saints defence ranks third. It feels clear to see that Sean Payton cannot change Jameis Winston, and so a lot of the Saints success will rely on Alvin Kamara, although it was interesting to see the Saints trade to get Mark Ingram back from the Texans and you have to imagine that is to lessen the workload of Kamara as he has been such a large part of the Saints offence in recent weeks. Even missing Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski on offence it feels like the Bucs will have too much on offence, and while the line does make me pause, the Saints were only able to beat the Seahawks who were starting Geno Smith at quarterback by a field goal last week.

Points on the Rest:

  • I’m watching the Jaguars go against the Seahawks this week as Dan is curious about what will happen, as am I. The Seahawks look to be in real trouble without Russell Wilson, whilst the Jaguars will be rested after their win in London against the Dolphins and subsequent bye, but it’s hard to have that much faith in either of them in their current form.
  • The Broncos are trading and making moves like they are in win now mode, and I’m sure that Vic Fangio feels like he is fighting for his job. I’m not sure what to expect from the Football Team with the focus in recent days rightfully returning to the absence of a written report into their toxic working environment in the wake of the Jon Gruden email links. On the field it feels like after a strong first season, that Ron Rivera is struggling to build in Washing and the defence that was so good last year is only ranked twenty-eighth by DVOA this season. I feel like the Broncos have a slight edge in this one, and against another team I might be concerned about this line, but I can’t back Washington without getting more points than this.

Patriots @ Chargers (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Jaguars @ Seahawks (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Washington @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Buccaneers @ Saints (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Sunday Night Football:

Cowboys @ Vikings (+2.5)

It looks like the Cowboys could be resting Dak Prescott given they have a solid hold of the NFC East and they won’t want him aggravating his calf injury if they don’t need to, even if they have stated that if it was the playoff he would be playing. The Vikings have been playing well on offence this season, and their defence is almost quietly sixth in the league by DVOA. A lot depends on who is playing for the Cowboys in this game, but given the lines I’m seeing online it appears the assumption is that Prescott won’t be and so I have to take the Vikings getting points in these circumstance.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Monday Night Football

Giants @ Chiefs (-9.5)

I’m really not sure what to do about this line as the Giants are not a good football team, but they are coming off a very good win against the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Chiefs looked broken against the Titans last week, but equally the week before they scored a lot of points late and beat Washington by a lot, even if it was a tight game in the third quarter. I’m pretty certain the Chiefs bounce back with a win as I don’t trust the Giants, but this is a lot of points to lay for a team who str definitely struggling this year. Equally, the Giants have been competitive with teams around them and lost big to better teams. The numbers I use have this as a marginal advantage to go with the Chiefs, and I don’t really want to back them, but I just don’t have enough faith in Daniel Jones on the road given the Giant’s injuries and what’s been going on. I will probably kick myself about this one Tuesday whatever the result.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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Competition Thursday: 2021 Week 8

28 Thursday Oct 2021

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Dan and I both had winning weeks in the picks competition, and I’m particularly pleased to pick up ten points in a thirteen game week. The pair of us are solidly over fifty percent at the moment, but who knows if we’ll be able to maintain that for another eleven weeks.

Gee:Week 7:  10 – 3Overall:  58 – 49
Dan:Week 7:  8 – 5Overall:  56 – 51

Packers @ Cardinals (-5.5)

This could be completely the wrong way to approach this game, particularly as the Packers are dealing with receivers Davante Adam and Allen Lazard going on the Covid-19 list as well as defensive coordinator Joe Barry, but while this line is slightly better than the consensus I’m seeing online it still seems like a lot for Cardinals to cover. I can definitely see given their record and the situation in Green Bay that they are favourites, but I keep looking at those numbers and going, yeah but the Packers have Aaron Rodgers. Throw out the first game of the season and the Packers are unbeaten, and whilst that first game definitely counts it shouldn’t have too much influence and even missing one of the best receivers in the game this line is just that bit too rich for me. I could easily regret this, and I absolutely know that this is not how I advocate making decisions, but I just don’t want to go against the Packers giving Rodgers this many points.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Survivor Competition

Dan and I held serve in week seven, with the Rams beating the Lions for Dan and the Bucs taking care of the Bears for me. Dan is going for a radically different, and some might suggest overly bold strategy of going against the Eagles this week as he thinks the Lions are getting their first win. It’s certainly an approach, although I do wonder if he remembers this is a competition that is supposed to be based on a survivor pool so it’s certainly not one I’m going to replicate right now. I am hoping that any concern Dan might have about my pick will be compensated for by the reverse jinx potential as given Dan’s statements on the pod and the pick rankings I use, I am going for the Bills to beat the Dolphins. I can certainly handle dropping a point in this competition if the Dolphins get a win and not just because of my bold prediction.

Current Score

Gee: 6
Dan: 4

Week 8 Selection:

Gee:     Bills
Dan:    Lions

Bold Prediction of the Week

As ever I was struggling with a bold prediction despite my big win last week, but I was eventually allowed to plump for the Dolphins keeping the score to within a touchdown against the Bills so I basically get to be on both sides of this game.

Success is a Fragile Thing but its Absence Sitcks

27 Wednesday Oct 2021

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It has been a mixed week for the TWF team with the Bengals getting a statement win on the road against the Ravens to get people talking about them, whilst the Dolphins managed a déjà vu field goal loss against the Falcons against a back drop of trade rumours that I think will worry Dan until we are past the trade deadline next week.

What I Saw

For me there’s only one place to start with the Sunday games that I watched this week and that is in Baltimore. The game started as a tight contest that the Bengals edged out 13-10 at half time, but the Bengals’ offence broke out in the second half as the defence clamped down after an early third quarter touchdown for the Ravens to turn a 17-13 deficit into a 41-17 statement win. Ja’Mar Chase had a two-hundred yard receiving day and the rookie receiver now has the most receiving yards through seven career games of any player in NFL history. The defence is what was winning game initially, but now it feels like both sides of the ball are coming together. The Ravens have no need to panic at 5-2 as there is plenty of season left to go and they have too much experience to fall apart after a bad game, but for now the Bengals deserve to be taken seriously,  although that also involves dealing with expectations so let’s see what happens next week at the Jets.

The other of the early games I watched was the Kansas City Chiefs getting beaten soundly 27-3 by the Tennessee Titans. The thing I didn’t mention on the podcast this week is that it is really hard to get to four Super Bowls in a row, which is what the Chiefs are trying to do this season. It is even harder if you have not nailed your draft picks or all-in moves in free agency. The key players are there, but right now Patrick Mahomes is pushing and turning over the ball in a way he never used to. They need to find some way to exploit more space underneath or to challenge the two high safety looks that they are now seeing regularly as now the offensive production is slipping and the defence shows no sign of improvement. The Titans don’t exactly have a fearsome defence but had more than enough in this one and it was Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball that was as effective as anything on offence for the Titans, although seeing Derick Henry throw a touchdown pass was undeniably fun.

Finally, on Sunday night the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers took on each other and a bomb cyclone in a contest that was understandably heavy on the run game, particularly as at some poins throwing the ball looked like a quarterback’s nightmare brought to life. It’s not that often that you see two running backs from opposing teams run for matching one-hundred and seven yards and a touchdown from eighteen carries, but that’s what the 49ers Elijah Mitchell and Jonathan Taylor managed. The up and down nature of Jimmy Garoppolo season continued as he returned from injury but still hasn’t exactly convinced, while Carson Wentz still tries to do too much and has a nasty habit of in trying to make an impossible play simply giving the ball back to the opposition. The Colts have won three of their last four games after an 0-3 start so their matchup with the 5-2 Titans next week is a pretty huge contest but at least they seem to be finding themselves. As for the 49ers, you are beginning to hear enough questions about the job Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are doing in building this team that there could be questions to face if things don’t start to improve. As good as a play caller as Shanahan is, his career record is 31-39 with only one winning season, though he did take his team to a Super Bow, but if anything it is play of both Garoppolo and Trey Lance that could be seen as the biggest questions for this franchise.

What I Heard

I exist in a state of quantum flux when it comes to discussion of the Deshaun Watson trade rumours, both amazed that any team would consider trading for a player with that litany of complaints and police charges against them and yet simultaneously not at all surprised because patriarchy and football.

One of the teams I didn’t mention on the podcast that has also been floated as a Watson desitination was the Washington Football Team, which I have to think Ron Rivera would oppose given the recent investigations into the Football Team for their toxic work environment, particularly for women. That said, while the NFL through Roger Goodell are stating that they have handled the situation well (there is no report to publish, although they are apparently cooperating with a request from the House Committee on Oversight and Reform for all documents and communications about the investigation into the workplace culture in Washington) you wonder whether Dan Snyder might make the trade, even if he is not running things at the moment..

What I Think

The Detroit Lions may be 0-7, but there are five teams below them in the DVOA rankings and frankly they threw the kitchen sink at the LA Rams on Sunday, made them work and so far this season have only been beaten badly by one team. I don’t think this looks like a winless team, they are still fighting for their coach, and they can perhaps look at the first year of Brian Flores in Miami where the Dolphins also lost their first seven games but closed out the season 5-4. The unfortunate thing for the Dolphins is that after going 10-6 last season, they have not kicked on this season, but to me that hints at how fragile a thing success can be in the NFL.

As a Bengals fan I was hoping for progress coming into the season and prepared for disappointment. I certainly was not expecting a 5-2 start that includes win in Pittsburgh and Baltimore and whilst I’m certainly not expecting the end to one of our two playoff droughts, I can at least dream of it. The Dolphins were unlucky not to get into the playoffs last season with ten wins, but while there are several teams with as bad or longer droughts for appearances, the Bengals, Lions and Dolphins make up the top three longest playoff win drought. The injury to Andy Dalton in 2015 still haunts me as the team who could have been something, particularly as the Bengals haven’t had a winning season since and are without a playoff win in thirty seasons despite Dalton leading the Bengals to the playoffs for five straight seasons from 2011-2015. The Lions’ last winning season was in 2017 and after the spectacular failure of the Matt Patricia tenure the reboot is going to take time and with their one playoff win back in 1991 (a whole season more recent than the Bengals) their drought looks set to  continue for a while. Going into the season the Dolphins would have looked best out of these three teams to end their own playoff win drought, and at twenty seasons they have some time before they catch the Lions and Bengals but this year does not seem destined for them to get that win.

The season is more random for teams than many like to admit, but these long streaks demonstrate that for some teams there are definite patterns, even if they felt more competitive to you as a fan at the time. The Marvin Lewis period transformed the Bengals from and national laughing stock to a credible franchise that included several incredibly talented teams threatening to break the playoff drought but they never quite could. There’s no guarantee that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase can do better than Andy Dalton and AJ Green, or for that matter Carson Palmer and his talented offence so yes I’m cautious, but I am definitely enjoying the game right now.

What I Hope

I have two hopes this week. I really hope that the Bengals are focussed and beat the Jets to maintain their run as there is a lot of season left and they really can’t afford to drop winnable games. I also hope that the Dolphins give Dan something to be happy about come Monday.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2021 Week Seven Picks

24 Sunday Oct 2021

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Given that Teddy Bridgewater was dealing with a foot and quad injuries whilst the Browns were down to a third string running back and backup quarterback, it’s perhaps not surprising that Thursday night was not a high scoring affair. However, Browns’ running back D’Ernest Johnson took his prime-time opportunity to show exactly what he could do, running for one hundred and forty-six yards and torturing the Broncos run defence all game. In fact, the Broncos’’ defence struggled all evening, not helped by Von Miller exiting the game late in the second quarter with a sprained ankle. Even though the numbers were not spectacular, Case Keenum ran the Browns offence effectively and in the first half it looked like the Browns were going to win by a lot, but the Broncos finally got going in the second half and were able to turn the contest into a close game that they ultimately lost 14-17. This was the Broncos’ fourth straight loss after a strong start to the season and they really need to find something in this long week to turn things round. I was really impressed with the quality of the Browns’ performance given the injuries they are dealing with and the Browns are at very least going to be a difficult team to face all year and are still in the hunt in a competitive AFC.

As I turn my attention to picks it looks like a week of lines I really don’t like but in my infinite wisdom I didn’t give Dan and I the options of staying away, which is definitely what I want to do with a large chunk of these picks.

Early Games:

I was already looking at the Bengals visit to the Baltimore Ravens as the matchup of week, and in a slightly unusual moment it seems the American media agree with me. The Bengals at 4-2 remain in contention for the division, which is not what I was expecting from them and although the offence is somewhat boom or bust, the defence is ranked fifth by DVOA and the Bengals have been in every game this season with their two losses coming by field goals. However, the Ravens have the best record in the AFC and looked truly terrifying against the Chargers last week. The defence is only ranked fourteenth, which is a little surprising, but the offence is top ten and Lamar Jackson looks better dropping back to pass and has been less reliant on his ability to amaze running the ball. I’m really hoping that the Bengals can keep this one competitive on the road and whilst I would be delighted with a win, it would be a big surprise, but the Bengals have been a surprise package so far this season and that in of itself is a positive step given their recent record.

The next game I want to discuss is not exactly the matchup you would have thought looking through the schedule before the season started, but the Titans hosting the Chiefs has the potential for a fun offensive contest given that the Chiefs’ defence ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA and the Titans’ is a lofty twenty-eighth. It’s hard to see the Chiefs’ defence stopping Derrick Henry who continues to prove himself a statistical outlier immune to the usual rules of workload for running backs and somehow was the fastest player carrying the ball last week while being two-hundred and fifty or so pounds. However, while the Chiefs struggled last week, they may have found something late in their game against Washington using 12 personnel to improve the protection of Patrick Mahomes. This game has the potential to be a great shoot out, except if the Chiefs get rolling I’m not sure Derrick Henry is the right player to keep up with the Chiefs explosive offence despite his capacity to take the ball to the end zone on almost any given play. I’m looking forward to watching this one, but I’m not enjoying picking it at all!

Points from the rest:

  • The vaunted Washington defence from last season is currently ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA and the offence is not exactly a hung amount better so the big question in this game is likely to be whether the Packers can cover this line unless Washington show some rapid improvement.
  • The Dolphins come back from London having lost to the Jaguars and with a swirl of rumours about a potential trade for Deshaun Watson. The Falcons are coming off a bye having won their own London game and while neither team are good right now, the Dolphins were meant to be competing this season but haven’t looked like it for much of the season. However, there is something in the line, and I really didn’t think Tua Tagovailoa played that bad last week and with trade rumours swirling I’m sure the embattled QB is looking to prove his worth in this one.
  • The Patriots look to have their replacement for Tom Brady, and the Pats have competed in some big games this season but so far they have only two wins so the seven and a half points they are laying looks troubling. That is until you remember the Pats have already blown out the Jets on the road and Bill Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks. I do wonder if this line is too high, but backing the Jets as underdogs has bitten me too often over the years to back them in this one.
  • The Panthers have a top ten defence by DVOA but are a very mixed bag on offence and have slipped to 3-3 from a 3-0 start. However, the Giants are both bad and injured so I can’t back them even getting points at home given the Panthers have a genuine strength to gameplan with.

Washington @ Packers (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Chiefs @ Titans (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Falcons @ Dolphins (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Jets @ Patriots (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Panthers @ Giants (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Late Games:

There isn’t really a great game in the late slate of games, although there could be some interesting narratives.

The Raiders won their first game after the Jon Gruden resignation, but now we must see if they are coalescing as a team or if that was a one-week bounce. I have heard some commentary that the Raiders have been finding themselves in a position where people are able to get on with their jobs rather than having Gruden involved as he was to an unusual amount across the franchise before his very public fall from grace. The Eagles are not a good football team but are coming off a long week having lost on Thursday night and then trading Zach Ertz to the Cardinals. I like the Raiders to win this game and the line definitely concerns me but given how the Eagles have been playing I’m going to reluctantly back the Raiders.

The LA Rams game is all about the narrative given they swapped quarterbacks with the Lions in the offseason and Matthew Stafford has looked great running Sean McVay’s offence. The Lions up to last week had kept all their games close and were a tough team to play, but the Bengals of all teams beat them comfortably enough that head coach Dan Campbell came out and said he needed more from Jared Goff. It must be so disorientating for Goff, who went to the Super Bowl with the Rams in 2018 but hasn’t looked the same since and now finds himself on a rebuilding Lions team. Goff looks to be the kind of quarterback who needs everything around him to be right rather than a player who elevates those around him. This line is enormous, and it will be telling if the Lions get blown out again, but I can’t back all of the big favourites this week and something about Goff facing his old team has me taking the points.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Cardinals are 6-0 and should have more than enough to beat a Texans team who beat the Jaguars in week one and been competitive in exactly one game since against the Patriots. The line makes me incredibly nervous given how easy it would be for the Cardinals to take the Texans too lightly but having lost by twenty-eight to the 2-4 Colts I can’t bring myself to back the Texans.
  • The Buccaneers should have no problem in beating the Bears, but with Antonio Brown out injured alongside the slew of corners and the Bears having a top ten defence by DVOA I think the Bears can keep this one within two touchdowns.

Eagles @ Raiders (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Lions @ Rams (-15.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Texans @ Cardinals (-16.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Bears @ Buccaneers (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Sunday Night Football:

Colts @ 49ers (-3.5)

I am intrigued about this game and will definitely be watching it even if it does see the 2-4 Colts visiting the 2-3 49ers coming off a bye. The 49ers will have Jimmy Garoppolo back at quarterback, which they need with rookie Trey Lance being out with a knee sprain. The Colts have put together good performances the last two weeks and I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing how they do against a 49ers team who are ranked tenth overall by DVOA despite all the injuries. It may not be a great sounding matchup given their records, but there’s plenty to take away from this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Monday Night Football

Saints @ Seahawks (+4.5)

Here we are, Monday night and the big quarterback matchup is Jameis Winston versus Geno Smith. Perhaps more worrying for the Seahawks given that Smith has given the Seahawks competent play at quarterback, is the problems they are having on defence, ranked as they are twenty-second by DVOA and built around a safety in Jamal Adams who is a liability in coverage and who costs them multiple first-round picks in a trade. The Seahawks ranking of ninth overall and sixth on offence must surely slip by the time Russell Wilson returns from the finger injury on his throwing hand. That said, the Saints are a hard team to read this season as they are alternating wins and losses before going on bye last week. The familiar on the field up and down play of Jameis Winston has not disappeared under Sean Payton but the defence is ranked an impressive third by DVOA and you feel like the Saints should win this one. The line does make me nervous given Winston’s history, although I should say he has a four to one touchdown to interception rating but a 60.3 completion percentage. Part of me wonders if the Seahawks can keep it close, but I feel like Sean Payton is going to be able to find too many things against this Seahawks defence, which combined with his own defence going against Geno Smith means I’m going to eventually back the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Seven

21 Thursday Oct 2021

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We are a third of the way through the regular season, and after a bad week Dan has reeled in what was a five point lead to tie up the picks competition but there is still a long way to go.

Gee:Week 6:  5 – 9Overall:  48 – 46
Dan:Week 6:  7 – 7Overall:  48 – 46

Broncos @ Browns (-3.5)

The Broncos strong start to the season has tailed off as the opposition has got tougher whilst the Browns are dealing with a multitude of injuries on offence and a defence that ranks thirteenth by DVOA in spite of the hopes many had for it coming into the season. For all that Baker Mayfield is toughing out the shoulder injury in his non-throwing shoulder, with both of their top two running backs out, the Browns are really struggling and a short week is not exactly what they need. The Broncos really need to halt their slide and get back to winning ways, but if you look at their schedule the run does make sense. I know that Dan has gone back and forth multiple times on this one but settled on the Broncos, which matches what I’m seeing in the lines and so he’ll at least have company if the Browns do overcome the injuries to get the win.

Gee’s Pick:     Broncos
Dan’s Pick:     Broncos

Survivor Competition

I was surprised that Dan went with the Dolphins against the Jaguars last week and him falling a further point behind is very much the least of his concerns surrounding football at the moment, but he has changed tack this week by picking against a new team, this time going against the winless Lions as they are visiting the Rams. There are a number of large lines this week that offer up possible survivor picks, and the Cardinals are tempting, except at 6-0 they might be due a loss at some point even if you don’t expect it. Anyway, I’ve settled on the Buccaneers hosting the Bears so here’s hoping they don’t let me down.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 3

Week 7 Selection:

Gee:    Buccaneers
Dan:    Rams

Bold Prediction of the Week

So I always find this difficult and was clearly feeling the pressure whilst recording the podcast as my bold prediction this week is the Bengals to beat th Ravens… What was I thinking?

As the Season Takes Shape

20 Wednesday Oct 2021

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In a week of mixed fortunes for Dan and my teams I am wondering what trends are going to hold as divisions begin to stabilise, and which are shaping up to be competitive as we get a better idea of who is good, bad and somewhere in the middle.

What I Saw

The first game played on Sunday that I saw was the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Miami Dolphins, which was a closer contest than some expected as the Jaguars eked out a 23-20 win thanks to a pair of late fifty-yard-plus field goals. For all the criticism of Tua Tagovailoa, he put in a solid performance working his way back from fractured, albeit with a bad interception and a poor third down incompletion where he could have simply scrambled for third down. What both Tagovailoa and the Dolphins most need right now is for him to get a run of games so he can settle and the team really find out what they have. As for the Jaguars, one win does not convince me that Urban Myer is going to make a success of the pros, and it’s probably more useful to remember the thin margins between the best and worst teams in the NFL. The whole idea that on any given Sunday any team can beat another one is a cliché for a reason and in a now seventeen-game season where scheduling plays a part and you don’t get to play every team home and away, random things have much less of a chance to work themselves out.

The other two games I watched this week blend into each other in week seven. I wrote on Sunday that if the Bengals want to build on the winning first quarter of the season, then they will need to beat the Lions. I was worried about the game given that the Lions had played everyone tough so far this season and we are really not very early into the experience of the Bengals under Zac Taylor having a winning record. It turns out that Dan’s faith in the Bengals was a better judgement in this case than my caution, as the Bengals ran out 34-11 winners and even had backup quarterback Brandon Allen in the game for the fourth quarter where he threw a solitary pass that added a touchdown to the score. The Lion’s head coach Dan Campbell had some interesting thoughts on quarterback Jared Goff, which were more nuanced than the, ‘I feel like he needs to step up more than he has. And I think he needs to help us just like everybody else.’ quote that most of us got a small digest on. There is an good blog post on that here if you are interested. The Lions rebuild was always going to be a long project and Dan Campbell has been something of a quote machine, but if his team responds to this first big defeat then they can still get something out of this season, but the longer the losing streak goes on the more pressure there is going to be, particularly as it’s not so long ago that the Lions had a winless season.

The final game I watched was the Ravens ominous 34-6 demolition of the LA Chargers. Now, watching this game with the Chargers on the road I thought a lot of the problem was that this was Justin Herbert’s first time playing the Ravens’ defence and they very strike me as a team that you can watch all the tape you like, it’s just different in the game. As long as the Chargers bounce back, then this is an understandable bump for a team who are 4-2 with a second-year quarterback and a rookie head coach. I generally like Brandon Staley’s aggressive approach to fourth down, and I understand the argument about needing to go for the win and be aggressive, but there where one or two occasions where the Chargers were deep enough in their own side of the field that punting surely had to be a better option. As for the Ravens, they have shown they can beat teams in multiple ways and are probably looking forward to hosting the Bengals this week in a contest that I hope the Bengals keep close, but I wouldn’t bet much more than that right now.

What I Heard

It’s been something of a scattered week for me, so right now I am feeling the opposite of what usually happens for this section. Rather than having heard things on the podcasts that I’ve noted down to write about or found things today that inspired me I’ve hit this section and gone blank on what I have listened to.

However, that doesn’t mean I don’t have anything to write about as there’s a new podcast that has hit my rotation this season that is not directly NFL related but is really interesting. The pod is called Make Defence Great Again, which setting political reference aside is very on brand for my football interests and it is fascinating to listen to the detail of coaching defence at the high school and college level. It’s this pod and it’s host Coach Vaas that has me rethinking how I am going to approach my offseason and diving into coaching tape or  perhaps some clinics/courses. That said, there is something for just listening to different people’s approaches even if I don’t have much of the vocabulary or technical knowledge getting to hear what both drives coaches or keeps them up at night is a lesson in of itself. If any of that sound of interest have a look at the host Coach Vass’ site for more details.

What I Think

Now we are into the second quarter of the season I am curious to see how the teams develop in the coming weeks. The Indianapolis Colts have had a rough start to the season, but are only two games back from the Titans (who are beginning to accrue injury concerns themselves) and while I’m not predicting that the Colts will definitely fight back to win the division, they are not as out of it as the 2-4 record might have you believe. The Detroit Lions may be the worst team in the league by wins and losses, and ultimately, they are what counts as the NFL is a results business, but their DVOA ranking of twenty-sixth is not nothing either and I wonder how they might progress over the coming weeks.

As for the winning teams, the Bills wobbled on Monday night, leaving the AFC race slightly murkier, whilst the NFC has four teams with five wins who are trying to keep up with the unbeaten Cardinals. No one knows what injuries, Covid-19 or flat bad luck could derail any team’s chances but if feels like in the NFC at least we are getting a sense of who the real contenders are.

What I Know

There will be focus on Jared Goff’s return to LA with the Lions, and I don’t think anybody will expect the Lions to win. It does appear to me however, that Goff is a quarterback who needs the right elements around him to succeed. That shouldn’t be sniffed at as he has played in a Super Bowl – but the difference in the Rams this season amply demonstrates why teams are so desperate to find not just a good quarterback, but a real difference maker.

What I Hope

I really hope the Bengals can make it competitive against the Ravens this week. I can live with a loss if they play well, and with the Bengals ranked a lofty thirteenth by DVOA a fan can at least dream of winning this weekend, even if they dare not hope for a win.

2021 Week Six Picks

17 Sunday Oct 2021

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Week six started with a game that didn’t look that competitive on paper as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travelled to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, and when the Bucs went up 28-7 in the third quarter it certainly looked ominous but in the final twenty minutes the Eagles got some stops on defence and scored a couple of touchdowns to ultimately lose by one score 22-28. Part of the reason that happened was because head coach and play caller Nick Siranni suddenly remembered that running back Miles Sanders could actually run the ball. Previous to that the offence had only revolved around Jalen Hurts running and taking deep shots that seemed to be more effective at getting penalty yards than actual passing completions. The Eagles are not a good team right now, and I would question the way they are trying to run their offence, but there are glimmers of something there.

As for the Bucs, they are looked ominously good on offence for three quarters but seemed to bog down for the final quarter, although to the surprise of no Tom Brady was able to close out the game with a clock killing drive. There will be sterner tests of the injured Bucs’ secondary, but the rush defence was excellent and against even a slightly slower quarterback Shaq Barrett would have had multiple sacks. It may be that the injuries sink the Bucs at some point but right now they are still managing to look like Super Bowl champions thanks to the play of their offence.

So with that said about the Thursday night game let’s turn our eyes to the Sunday matchups.

Early Games:

We get our second and last London game of the season this week, but I’m not sure it’s going to be a great contest. The Jaguars are 0-5 for a reason and Urban Myer really hasn’t convinced in the pros so I find it hard to believe that he will outcoach Brian Flores, even if the Dolphins have really struggled so far this season. I’m hoping for Dan that the Dolphins play better and Tua Tagovailoa gets the start and elevates the team even though the betting lines haven’t moved with Jacoby Brissett as the starter. The sad truth is that right now the Dolphins are ranked only one place higher by the DVOA than the Jaguars and are actually ranked three places lower than the league’s other winless team the Detroit Lions. At this point there might have to be questions about how the draft picks of the recent Dolphins regime is working out even if the process of accumulating them was well done. While the Dolphins shouldn’t be in full panic mode yet, this is probably the first time Flores will be dealing with genuine criticism of his tenure so it will be interesting to see how he and his team react in strange surroundings.

As for the six o’clock games, the oldest rivalry in the NFL is being played again as the Packers visit the Bears, but the matchup of this window must be the LA Chargers visiting the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are coming out of a game where they had to work hard to get the overtime win but where Lamar Jackson completed thirty-seven of forty-three passes for four hundred and forty-two yard and four touchdowns. This doesn’t answer all the questions about Jackson in the passing game as the Colts played him in a particular way, but that was likely his best game as a drop back passer. The Chargers have a different defensive philosophy, but a lot of the excitement is based around the continued development of quarterback Justin Herbert in his second season and this meeting of two 4-1 teams looks to be a great contest that has the potential for real fireworks.

Points from the rest:

  • The Packers have well and truly moved past their bad opening week but had to work hard to beat the Bengals last week and it will be interesting to see how they do against the Bears, where Matt Nagy has a 31-22 overall record but generally gets coverage that sounds like he’s doing a lot worse. That is because the Bears are not really that convincing at 3-2 but let’s see what Justin Fields and the offence can do this week.
  • The Bengals had an okay showing last week, but if they want to build on the winning first quarter of the season, they will need to beat a Lions team who have not looked far away from their first win and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions did get that this week.
  • The Colts looked better last week, with Carson Wentz looking as good as he has for a long time, but they need to rediscover their winning habit and whilst hosting the Texans looks like a good opportunity to do that, the number of points they are laying seems excessive and I can’t back them to cover that kind of line when they are 1-4.
  • I’m not sure what to expect from the Giants, as even when things show some promise, injury gets in the way and it’s hard to see them getting one over the Rams, even if it is a long way from LA to the east coast. However, this is a big line and with Daniel Jones cleared to play I’m just wondering if the Rams will cover this one or if they will be happy to just get the win.
  • Washington are simply not anywhere near the team from last season and whilst the Chiefs are struggling on defence, they has so much more offence than the Football Team that even with this high line I am going to back the Chiefs to get back on track.
  • The Panthers have been struggling in recent weeks and placed running back Christian McCaffery on IR yesterday after he suffered a setback earlier in the week, which explains the four point swing from laying one and a half points to getting them if you look at the consensus number so I have to go for the Vikings.

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Packers @ Bears (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ Lions (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Texans @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Rams @ Giants (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Chiefs @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Vikings @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Late Games:

The best game of the late sets sees the 3-2 Cleveland Browns hosting the 5-0 Cardinals having lost to the Chargers last week. The Browns have beaten the teams they should have but come up short against Chiefs and Chargers. More worryingly the Brown’s injury list is begging to grow. The Cardinals are top ten in all three phases of the game but are on the road without their head coach after Kliff Kingsbury caught Covid-19. I have numbers that contradict each other, but with the Browns at home with their head coach available I’m going to reluctantly back them even though I really don’t have a feel for what is likely to happen in this one other than what looks to be a really good game.

Points on the Rest:

  • I don’t know how the Raiders will react to the Jon Gruden situation, whether they rally round to win one for themselves or struggle with motivation, although I have heard that Derek Carr has really stepped up this week in his leadership role. The Broncos have struggled the last two weeks and the extra half point makes me nervous so whilst my numbers are saying one thing, I’m going to grab the points and hope.
  • The Patriots struggled last week against the Texans, so even though they are getting four and a half points at home, which is pretty incredible given Belichick’s coaching record, I find it hard to believe the Pats will keep up with the Cowboys given how both teams are playing at the moment. I would stay well away from this one if I had the choice as I don’t fancy picking against Belichick by this many points but as I don’t have that option I’m going to nervously back the Cowboys given the Pats are the twentieth ranked team by DVOA and the Cowboys are the second.

Cardinals @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Cowboys @ Patriots (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Sunday Night Football:

Seahawks @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Sunday night game has a completely different feel now that the Seahawks have Russell Wilson out injured and are starting Geno Smith at quarterback. To be fair Smith didn’t exactly look bad when he came into last week’s game, but the Seahawks’ defence is ranked a lowly twenty-fifth right now so it is a lot to ask Smith to come in and maintain the Seahawks current ranking of fifth on offence by DVOA with so little support from the defence. I am not entirely sure I trust the Steelers turnaround on offence after one week, but under the circumstances facing a backup quarterback I’m leaning their way even if I’m not totally convinced.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Monday Night Football

Bills @ Titans (+5.5)

I guess the big question in this game is will the Bills have any kind of let down after the huge win against the Chiefs last week. They are on the road for a second week, this time facing a Tennessee Titans who may have the lead in the AFC South, but who have a 3-2 record and who are ranked twenty-sixth by overall DVOA. The Titans offence has not really clicked this season and the defence continues to struggle, whilst the Bills are the top team by DVOA thanks to the number one ranked defence by DVOA and an offence that is still potent even if Josh Allen’s performance has slipped a little from last year’s amazing efficiency. I feel like with the Bills on the road I could get bitten by this line under the circumstances, but looking at the Titans schedule so far this season I think I still have to back the Bills given the large difference in the DVOA rankings.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Six

14 Thursday Oct 2021

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Dan closed the gap to two points in week five of our picks competition but as we turn our attention to game six, which is the first of the season to feature teams on a bye, we also have what looks to be a distinctly one-sided Thursday night game.

Gee:Week 5:  7 – 9Overall:  43 – 37
Dan:Week 5:  10 – 6Overall:  41 – 39

Buccaneers @ Eagles (+6.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are currently ranked sixteenth overall by DVOA, but are undeniably limited on offence despite occasionally flashing glimpses of what they could be. The Eagles did beat the Panthers last week, but you would feel that even with the Buccaneers’ cluster of injuries at corner, that the Eagles’ passing game is not efficient enough for them to get the win. Even Tom Brady dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand is not enough for me to back the Eagles to cover given that the consensus line is +7 and I’ve seen others higher than that. The Eagles could very well make me look like a fool but for now I can’t look past the Bucs in this one, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Survivor Competition

I don’t know how closely Dan was following the game on Sunday as it was happening, but the Patriots were made to work to get their win against the Texans but his plan to pick against the Texans just about held. However, he has transferred his plan to pick against the Jaguars, which I understand except he’s placing more faith in his Dolphins team than I have! That said, the Ravens could have easily lost against the Colts so I can’t be too confident in my own selections. Looking at the teams this week I’ve gone for the Rams against the Giants, even if they are on the road, the Giants have enough injuries and struggles this season to make me think they’ll struggle to keep up with the Rams.

Current Score

Gee: 4
Dan: 3

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Rams
Dan:    Dolphins

Bold Prediction of the Week

I was really struggling for a bold prediction this week, but I was eventually allowed to back the Bears to cover getting four and a half points as they host the Packers on Sunday.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Will the NFL Step Up?

13 Wednesday Oct 2021

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I am playing with the order this week as given the news there’s only one place to start, although I will get to what I saw of the week five games

What I Heard

Dan and I discussed it on the pod, which will go up tomorrow, but the headlines and discussions over the last couple of days have understandably focussed on the racist, homophobic, and misogynistic emails of Jon Gruden that were discovered as part of the investigation to the Washington Football Team.

The NFL informed the Raiders late last week, but it seems it took the new stories in the Wall Street Journal and The New York Times revealing leaked information for Gruden to resign stating that he didn’t want to be a distraction. Given the makeup of his locker room, including the first openly gay player to play a regular season game, it is hard to see how he could have possibly led the team.

At this point it is hard to be surprised that a middle aged straight white male might have these views, though that is bad enough in its own right, but that he had the confidence to email such things over a corporate email system displays pretty amazing entitlement. Even in his short statement he hasn’t addressed the nature of what they contained but tried to defend himself.

The way the NFL has and hasn’t reacted to the contents of the Washington investigation (which haven’t been published) raises its own questions given so far the only person to be held accountable and lose their job is Gruden. The NFLPA are petitioning for all of the emails to be released and this is important because Gruden not only wrote such bigoted things but felt comfortable enough to do it to Bruce Allen’s team email. Who else in the league is enabling such behaviour and why does the NFL seem so set to protect the Washington Franchise’s owner Dan Snyder given what we know of the culture he fostered there?

I do not know what happens next, but all the inclusivity campaigns and gestures will ring hollow if the league doesn’t act. However, given the league’s history it is hard to have faith that will happen in a timely fashion.

What I Saw

I saw some of the Falcons hosting the Jets in London, and I had forgotten just how much the Spurs stadium looks like an NFL stadium when it is configured for American football. Personally, that makes me a little sad as I like the idea of seeing the game look different and knowing it is in London, but it also is a commitment to having football in the UK and so I’m not going to complain too much. I am looking forward to watching the progress of Kyle Pitts over the coming years, and that he should have a breakout game with the Falcons top two receiver not playing is obvious in hindsight. I also overestimated the progress of the Jets, which doesn’t mean the glimmers I saw in their week four win were not there, but I was naïve to think they could suddenly push on and win in London, where rookie QBs are now a grand 1-11. I’m sure Dave would have mentioned the 1-10 stat if we had recorded a pod last week and that would have saved a point in our picks competition but I should know better. The Jets came back late in the game, but 20-27 is a score that is closer than the game really was.

The next game on Sunday that I watched was the Bengals overtime loss to the Packers that finished 25-22, which includes the Packers’ Mason Crosby missing three chances to seal the game before he finally got the winning field goal. The Bengals next step is to win a game against this level of opponent and beat the teams around them, but Burrow needs to learn what risks he can and can’t get away with (he’s on a voice resting regimin having had a bruised throat that saw him taken to hospital after the game as a precaution). Still, the connection between Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase has been ridiculously productive already and if the defence keeps playing at their current level then the Bengals can hopefully stack productive quarters of the season together. I’m not saying playoffs, but there is at least some things for fans of the Bengals to base hope on. As for the Packers, they might not quite look like the team of the last two seasons, but they’re 4-1 so it’s hard to complain too much and you have to assume they will be in contention later in the year.

I don’t feel like I got the best of the Cardinals this weekend, but that was in part due to the play of the 49ers defence yet the Cardinals ground out a 17-10 win to maintain their unbeaten start to the season. The training staff were working on Kyler Murray’s arm in the fourth quarter, which obviously didn’t help the Cardinals but the 49ers’ defence played well and gave them a chance to win. Unfortunately, Trey Lance demonstrated why Jimmy Garoppolo was the starting quarterback for the 49ers until he picked up a calf strain as whilst Lance looked dangerous running the ball, he is a raw passer with only one speed of delivery and so the 49ers struggled against the Cardinals top five ranked defence by DVOA. I’m not sure that the Cardinals are the best team in the league, but they have established themselves as contenders so far this season and the question going into the second quarter of the season is can they maintain this challenge in the NFC West.

Probably the actual best team in the NFL right now are the Buffalo Bills, who apart from being the number one ranked team by DVOA, handed out a 38-20 beating of Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have real problems this season as they still are the number one ranked offence by DVOA, but they are also the last ranked defence and that combination doesn’t make for winning football. Yes they are missing defensive tackle Chris Jones and pass rush is a real problem, but for all they rebuilt their offensive line in the offseason, right now it’s the defence that’s letting them down. The Bills put pay to the idea of this being just another game by running Josh Allen eleven times, and right now the Bills look like the team to beat in the AFC while it’s hard to see the Chiefs challenging that unless a lot of things improve quickly.

What I Think

I am treating the first five weeks of the season as the first quarter, and teams are beginning to settle into some tiers. That the Jets, Texans, Jaguars, Giants and Lions are in the bottom tier is hardly a surprise, but to see the Dolphins with only one win is a genuine surprise. I knew the Colts had a difficult run into the season with Carson Wentz, but to see them also with only one win is also a bit of a surprise.

In the middle tier, there are a lot of teams who could go either way. The Broncos have to prove that they are more than their 3-0 start against struggling teams, and the 49ers are wrestling with health and starting quarterbacks again. I wonder if the Steelers’ win in week five is a blip or if they are going to drag themselves back into contention and I’ve already mentioned the Bengals positive start.

As for the top teams who are over one win above five hundred, the Buffalo Bills weren’t a given but it’s not that surprising that they are 4-1, nor is it a surprise to see the Buccaneers get to four wins despite their slew of injuries at cornerback. The Ravens have not always looked pretty but are competing as always. It’s perhaps not a surprise that the Cowboys are top of the NFC East, but with the development of their defence they have to be considered as potential challengers in the NFC and I wasn’t expecting that. I don’t think anyone predicted the Cardinals to be unbeaten through five games and they are probably the biggest surprise in a tough division as right now they have a one game lead on the 4-1 LA Rams. You could see the potential of Mathew Stafford in McVay’s system, but it has very much lived up to expectations so far in LA. Finally, in the AFC part of LA the Chargers have also got off to a fast start under Brandon Staley and now it’s just a case of if they can build on this momentum or if the things that seem to so often go wrong for the Chargers resurface.

What I Know

I am looking forward to hearing about Dan’s experience at the Spurs stadium this weekend and as ever, there are plenty of questions at stage of the season. I’m looking forward to getting back to football, but we can’t take our eyes of the governance and the wider issues of the NFL.

What I Hope

I truly hope that the Dolphins are inspired by Dan’s presence in London and he gets to see a win, or even just Tua return and play well. I want no repeats of him having to witness a shutout in person.

2021 Week Five Picks

10 Sunday Oct 2021

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It was an interesting start to the week five games on Thursday night with the LA Rams managing a nine-point win against the Seahawks in Seattle despite a mixed performance from Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith leading the Seahawks on a ninety-three yard touchdown drive after he had to come into the game for the injured Russell Wilson. It really was a strange game that if anything saw the defences of both teams win out in the first half, and Stafford not quite connecting on his passes. However, the Rams kept pushing at it and eventually started to hit the long ball, like when Stafford connected with DeSean Jackson for a sixty-eight yard year completion but it was Robert Woods who after a quiet start to the season was fed the ball the most in the passing game finishing with twelve catches for one-hundred and fifty yards. Having gone into the half with a lead, the Seahawks struggled in the third quarter and with Wilson’s injury never were quite able to challenge the Rams again despite Smith’s competent display as the backup quarterback. The Seahawks look like they will be the first team to fall properly out of the playoff hunt in the AFC West given the losing record and that Wilson will be out for weeks as he recovers from the surgery on his finger, while there are questions about the Rams defence but they will definitely be pleased with the early returns on the Stafford trade.

It feels like I got a bit lucky on the first pick of the week, and I’ve already written up the London game so now it’s time to get into the rest of the week five games.

Early Games:

At the risk of being self-interested, the most interesting of the early games to me is the Green Bay Packers taking on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are an unexpected 3-1 on the back of a top five defence by DVOA and an offence that is doing enough. Rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase has looked every bit the first-round pick despite the rough pre-season and Joe Burrow hasn’t just returned from his knee injury but is scrambling and looking to build on the promise of his rookie season. I’m still not totally convinced by the offensive line, but Jonnah Wilson has been healthy and getting some plaudits at left tackle. However, the Bengals did make a little bit of a meal of beating the Jaguars last week and face their sternest test of the season as they welcome the Packers who may well rank seven places belove them by overall DVOA, but Aaron Rodgers is as dangerous as ever and the offence is top ten by DVOA. Apart from the strange loss in week one, the Packers have looked good for the rest of the season and with Rodgers at the helm I find it hard to predict a Bengals win, but it has the potential to be a cracking game and I do like getting the points at home.

Points from the rest:

  • The Vikings have had one of the weirder starts to the season losing to the Bengals and a Cardinals team who look like serious contenders so far this season. Their solitary win of the season came against the Seahawks before they lost to the Browns last week, but the division rival Lions should give them an opportunity to get back on track.
  • The Steelers are stuck in the twenties in all three phases of the game by DVOA ranking, and this week face a 3-1 Broncos team who have enough injuries (including a concussion for Teddy Bridgewater that means his questionable to start) that I think I’m taking the Steelers at home. Though for a franchise that I always respect there are a lot of problems in Pittsburgh right now.
  • The Dolphins season has gone horribly, with everyone questioning the decision to take Tua Tagovailoa over Justin Herbert last season, and a trip to face the Buccaneers is not really what they need to get back to winning ways. The Bucs have enough injuries at corner that I’m going to take the ten and a half points, but the Dolphins must hope that Tagovailoa can show something once he gets off the IR list but it’s going to be a while before that happens.
  • The Saints have been so up and down this season, proving that even Sean Payton can’t win with every quarterback. The Washington defence has not lived up to expectations, but Taylor Heinicke has given enough of a spark at quarterback that the Football Team are 2-2 and I’m not sure they should be getting points to this version of the Saints at home.
  • The Carolina Panthers could not keep up with the Cowboys last week, but the trade for Stephon Gilmore shows they are committed to this season and the defence so if the offence can keep doing enough they hope to keep the pressure on the Bucs in the NFC South. The Eagles have shown flashes of potential but have not been consistent and whilst the points scare me and the numbers point in the other direction, I can’t back them on the road based on a week one win against the Falcons
  • The Patriots take on a Texans team who are trying to ape the Patriots success, but are at the very beginning of the process and are down two starting quarterbacks for very different reasons. Poor Davis Mills was never meant to start this season, and it is hard to see anything but a Pats win in this one, even if this is a lot of points.

Packers @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Lions @ Vikings (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Broncos @ Steelers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Dolphins @ Buccaneers (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Saints @ Washington (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Eagles @ Panthers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Titans @ Jaguars (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Patriots @ Texans (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Late Games:

There are two interesting late games this week, so it is kind of hard to pick a best matchup.

The Cleveland Browns have kept rolling even if Baker Mayfield is dealing with an injury in his non-throwing shoulder that is limiting his play, but a stellar defence is keeping them in games, but will they have enough to limit a Chargers offence who looked very good as they ran out easy winners over Las Vegas last week. I feel like I must go with the Chargers at home right now, but the Browns could very easily win this one.

The Arizona Cardinals are the sole unbeaten team left in the league and welcome a 49ers team who are starting rookie quarterback Trey Lance for the first time thanks to another injury to Jimmy Garoppolo. Going against the sixth ranked defence by DVOA is a tough first start for Lance, and on the road it will be interesting to see what game plan Kyle Shanahan has in place for his rookie quarterback. For some reason I like getting the points in this game, and I am definitely watching this game as I look to fix the huge oversight of not having watched the Cardinal yet.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Bears have finally named Justin Fields as the start after a much better showing last week, which was helped by a game plan that actually looked designed to take advantage of his skill set. However, the Raiders will prove a tough opponent even if they couldn’t find their way on offence until too late to really challenge the Chargers last week. I expect the Raiders to win, but I wonder about the points total.
  • The Giants against the Cowboys could be a good contest if things break right, with quarterback Daniel Jones ranking tenth by DVOA. However, the Cowboys look to have found enough on defence to throw themselves into the elite of the league with a competent defence to compliment the flying offence with Dak Prescott showing no signs of issues coming back from his ankle injury of last season.

Bears @ Raiders (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Browns @ Chargers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Giants @ Cowboys (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

49ers @ Cardinals (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Bills @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The matchup of the week has top billing Sunday night as the Buffalo Bills trying to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The talk out of Buffalo is that this is just another game, but it’s hard to see how that can be the case when the Bills are trying to push for the Super Bowl and are taking on the team that beat them in the conference championship game last season. Josh Allen may not have been able to sustain the numbers he put up last season, but having scored forty points for the last two games he must be looking at the Chiefs’ last ranked defence by DVOA with a real sense of opportunity.

The Chiefs are not suddenly a bad team, but the offence has not always been able to overcome the problems on defence this year, yet they will still be the toughest team the Bills have faced all season. I’m not sure what to make of either team just yet, but I am very much looking forward to watching this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Monday Night Football

Colts @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Colts got their first win of the season last week, but it’s hard to trust them coming into this contest with a 3-1 Ravens team who as usual are there or there abouts. Thanks to the vagaries of the AFC South the Colts are only one win behind the division leaders despite the poor start that may not have sunk them yet, but the Ravens are top ten by DVOA yet again thanks to the usual combination of tough defence and diverse running attack. I wonder if on Monday night the Colts can make this a contest but it’s hard to see anything other than a Ravens win at this point.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.