The Disappointed Eighteen – NFC Edition

09 Saturday Jan 2021

Tags

Andy Dalton, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Bob Quinn, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Carson Wentz, Christian McCaffrey, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Dalvin Cook, Dan Quinn, Daniel Jones, David Tepper, DeAndre Hopkins, Detroit Lions, Disappointed Eighteen, Doug Pederson, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jalen Hurts, Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones, Jim Caldwell, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Judge, Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, Kliff Kingsbury, Kyle Shanahan, Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt LaFleur, Matt Patricia, Matt Rhule, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Mike McCarthy, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Raheem Morris, Randy Moss, Robert Saleh, Russell Wilson, San Francisco 49ers, Saquon Barkley, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Thomas Dimitroff

Welcome to part two of my rundown of the disappointed eighteen teams who did not make the 2020 NFL play-offs.

In this post I shall be looking at the NFC conference and I’ll work in ascending number of wins and descending draft order.

The cap numbers for next season still come from spotrac.com and the ranking/numbers were right at time of posting with an assumed team salary cap of $175 million.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

The Falcons never seem to have quite got over their loss in the Super Bowl back at the start of 2017 even though they got back to play-offs the following year, and after two losing season and an 0-5 start the Falcons let go both head coach Dan Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff. The Falcons fortunes picked up initially under interim head coach Raheem Morris who went a very respectable 4-2 in his first six games in charge of the Falcons, but they then lost five straight to finish out the season. It was a strange year for Matt Ryan who threw for over four and a half thousand yards and twenty-six touchdowns to eleven interceptions, but the timing of those interception often seemed to be poor. An offensive ranking of twenty-first undermined and average defence but it is interesting to see the Falcons picking fourth by their record but were ranked seventeenth overall by DVOA. Rebuilding this team could a difficult task, Matt Ryan might have a few years left in him at 35, but this is a team who are $32 million over the 2021 cap, behind only the Eagles and the Saints in terms of being over the cap. There are some painful decisions to make and unsurprisingly for a team picking in the top five, a lot of work to be done but this is one of those situations where we shall have to see what vision their new GM sells to ownership and how well they can implement it. It’s not like there are no good players in Atlanta, but there are a lot of questions and I simply do not know how the Falcons will bounce back next season.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

I can see why the three teams who are the most over the cap got there, the Saints are trying to maximise their chances of getting back to the Super Bowl at the end of their Hall of Fame quarterback’s last season, whilst both the Falcons and Eagles have been to the Super Bowl in the last five seasons. However, if the Falcons never managed to get over their loss, the Eagles might not have moved past their win. The Eagles roster has frequently been spoken of as one of the deepest in the league in the last few season seasons, including by myself, but familiar names have not saved them from injuries and the slow decay over seasons that finally tipped into losing this year. Worse still, their franchise quarterback Carson Wentz who had to watch their Super Bowl win from the side-lines in 2018 fell apart this season, which having signed a four-year $128 million extension in 2019 that kicks in this season causes all kind of problems this off-season. Carson Wentz was dropped for rookie Jalen Hurts towards the end of the season and it has been stated that Wentz’s relationship with head coach Doug Pederson has completely broken down, but Wentz simply cannot be cut. Wentz will count as $34.5 million on the cap next season and there would be a cap hit of $59 million if he was cut. I’m not sure what cap tricks can be pulled, but at $74 million over the cap, and the salary number is expected to down next season because of the lost game day revenue, there are huge questions about what can be done in the off-season. I am no capologist and I don’t cover the off-season in granular detail, but I will be watching with the situation in Philadelphia with interest. I certainly can’t predict a rapid turn around given this franchise doesn’t look to have functioned to the same level since a number coaches left Pederson’s staff after the Super Bowl win. I do wonder how long the owner’s patience will last if things don’t turn around quickly next season though.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

I left the possibility that Matt Patricia could surprise me before the season, but I did not foresee the Lions improving that much this season and that was very much the case. I questioned Patricia’s ability to create a good defence outside the environment of the Patriots where he made his name as a defensive coordinator, and sure enough they finished this season ranked thirty-second in the league by DVOA at the end of the season. Patricia was let go at the end of week twelve having fallen to 4-7 after a blow out loss to the Texans on Thanksgiving along with GM Bob Quinn. Since letting go of Jim Caldwell the Lions have had three seasons with double digit losses so they need to get the hiring decisions right this off-season. As discussed on the podcast this week, the Lions have the second longest play-off win drought in the NFL (second only to the Bengals) but twenty-nine years is a long time to wait for a play-off win! The Lions are not in desperate cap trouble, but $6 million under when you have the worst defence in the league does not give you a lot of options to work with so this is another team that needs the right GM to build a franchise up over a number of years. There is talk that perhaps they should trade quarterback Matthew Stafford and rebuild from the ground up, but at thirty-two he should have a few good years left though he may fancy a change of team if the right opportunity presents itself. There is too much uncertainty right now to predict how the Lions will fair, but I have a feeling that a multi-year rebuild is coming.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

This was always going to be a tough season for the Panthers who were starting a major rebuild with first time NFL head coach Matt Rhule and a curtailed pre-season. They lost their first two games, but then won their next three despite Christian McCaffery being unavailable due to injury (a situatin that was the case more often that not in 2020) and having heard Rhule on the Peter King’s podcast I was really impressed with how things were shaping up for the Panthers under their new head coach. Unfortunately, what followed was five straight losses and the Panthers were only able to get two more wins over the rest of the season. The Panthers made the decision to move on from GM Marty Hurney who has an overall record of 106-32 with the Panthers but 16-30 since he re-joined in 2017. The Panthers only have marginally more cap space to play with than the Lions so this is yet another franchise who look like they are in for a patient rebuild, but we will have to see and certainly owner David Tepper is not shy of making changes now he has had the team for a while. I still have a good impression of Matt Rhule but it looks like there is a lot more work to do and at some point the question of a franchise quarterback is going needs to be dealt with.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

I am almost not sure where to start with the Cowboys who were much fancied going into the season under new head coach Mike McCarthy who started his time in Dallas going 1-4 despite Dak Prescott playing very impressively. Unfortunately, then things went from bad to worse in game five when Prescott went down to a horrible ankle injury that helped turned the sputtering 1-4 start into a 2-7 record before the bye. Things improved in the home run of the season with the Cowboys maintaining a winning record and went into week seventeen with a shot of winning the NFC East. However, a woeful performance from backup quarterback Andy Dalton saw them lose the game as Dalton slipped to a 4-5 record as the starter this season. The Cowboys will face more off-season turmoil about getting Prescott signed to a long term deal but at least he should be fit for the start of next season. The real concern though is the defence, which slipped from sixteenth in the league by DVOA in 2019 to twenty-fourth and the Cowboys go into 2021 with £10 million of space to sign a quarterback so the route to a defence surely lies through the draft and better coaching. It was an odd season for a new coaching staff to take control so you might feel that it is unfair to judge McCarthy too harshly, but it is worth pointing out that McCarthy went 11-16 in his last two seasons with the Packers and his successor Matt LaFleur has gone 26-6. I have concerns about how the Cowboys run by Jerry Jones and how good the coaching staff are so whilst I’m not saying the Cowboys can’t compete next year, they have not been able to compete consistently for a reason which makes it hard to expect good things next season.

New York Giants (6-10)

The New York Giants were understandably frustrated when the Eagles pulled Jalen Hurts at the end of a close game they eventually lost against the Washington Football Team, handing the NFC East to the capitol, but with only six wins the Giants really only have themselves to blame about not making the play-offs. Their season started badly with the Giants going 0-5 and losing Saquon Barkely for the season after only two games. The Giants got their first win for rookie head coach Joe Judge against Washington, but that was followed by two more losses until the Giants went to Washington and swept their divisional opponents. This was followed by two more wins against the Eagles and the Bengals before their marquee win of the season, a masterpiece of a defensive performance that saw the Giants hold Russel Wilson and the Seahawks to twelve points in Seattle and come away with the win. At this point in the season I was really becoming very impressed with the coaching job Judge was doing and fancied them to make a run at the division. To be fair, they were still in the race on the final day despite losing the next three games, but the Giants needed Washington to lose because the their twenty-sixth ranked offence couldn’t score enough points for them to maintain their challenge for the division. I am not convinced by Daniel Jones as a quarterback or for that matter, Jason Garrett as an offensive coordinator but I do feel like this season finally represents progress after three seasons of failing to make the play-offs, even if the Giants still recorded double digit losses. However, the slow progress will have to continue with the Giants over the cap by $9 million next season, and I do think they need another quarterback, but with the arrow finally pointing up and a talent like Barkley returning next year they could well be a surprise in the NFC East.

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

The 49ers season seemed doomed from the start due to injuries, a problem that followed them all through the 2020 season. Once again Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t make it through an entire season with the teasing quarterback only playing in six games this season and it would not exactly be a surprise to see the 49ers make a move at that position in the off-season. Still, Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have created a great culture in San Francisco so this 6-10 feels a lot more positive than how a lot of teams might feel. Certainly defensive coordinator Robert Saleh did well to get his unit to a ranking of sixth in the league overall by DVOA and it would not be a surprise to seem him as a head coach next season. The 49ers have cap space next season but not necessarily enough to sign a big contract quarterback without some clever moves, but I do expect them to compete again next season. If they can finish the regular season ranked eleventh overall by DVOA despite their raft of injures then with a bit of luck they can sustain a challenge in the very competitive NFC West.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

It’s perhaps not a surprise that the Vikings struggled on defence this season given that they let 223 collective career games in their secondary walk out the locker room in the off-season. I should also mention that the Vikings were part of that rare thing, the NFL trade that benefited both participants. The Vikings sent disgruntled receiver Stefon Diggs to the Bills and he transformed the Bills’ offence alongside Josh Allen’s remarkable development, whilst the Vikings used the pick they acquired to draft Justin Jefferson who set a Vikings rookie receiving record which is no mean feat when the pervious record holder was Randy Moss. The Vikings actually made fifteen draft picks in a year with no proper off-season programme so they did pretty well to reach 7-9 with a defence that Mike Zimmer called the worst he ever coached. That said, the defence still ranked eighteenth by DVOA and if anything, it was the problems the Vikings had with winning when running back Dalvin Cook wasn’t available that stopped them from making the play-offs. Still, under Mike Zimmer the Vikings have been to the play-offs every other year and while this is only his second losing season since his first with the team in 2014, I don’t see any major reason why they can’t challenge again next season. Their path there still might not be that straight forward though as they are $17.5 over next year’s cap and so once again they will have to rely on draft picks and coaching. I wonder who else on the current roster might be let go. However, given the Vikings have been consistently able to be competitive I expect them to be so again next season.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

The Cardinals pulled off something of a coup in the off-season, acquiring receiver DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Houston Texans that most would say the Cardianls got the better of the deal. They also got off to a good start this season going 5-2 before their bye, but were unable to keep pace with the more experienced play-off contenders in the NFC West and just missed out on the play-offs. Though there were no announcements, it seemed like second year quarterback Kyler Murray was dealing with some kind of injury mid-season as there was a notable drop in his rushing production for a number of weeks and this seemed to hamper the offence. Still, they got back to winning ways towards the end of the season but losses to two divisional opponents in the final two weeks sees them on the outside of the play-offs looking in. A year of development is nothing to be sneezed at, but while the three more wins and ten place improvement in defensive ranking by DVOA from their 2019 record is good, as is the thirteenth ranking by overall DVOA, the slip in offensive ranking given the acquisition of Hopkins is a concern. This might all be down to the injury I suspect Murray was dealing with, but I have heard enough concern about head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s play calling and game management to be very curious to see if they can improve again next season or if they hit a plateau or get worse. The Cardinals don’t have a huge amount of cap space available to them next season, and we are once again wondering if this is the last season for veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald, but I wonder if the results of season rest on the lessons the coaching staff learnt this year and whether they can apply suitable changes to get them over the top next season. To me this is one of the more interesting situations in the league going into next season so I will be watching with interest.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average, and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Thanksgiving

26 Thursday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Tags

Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team

Whilst week eleven was eventful on the pitch, but in terms of the TWF competitions it was a week of maintaining status quos with Dan keeping his nine point advantage in the picks competition and both of us scoring another elimination in our survivor competition.

Still, with games starting early today it is time to start our week twelve picks, minus the Ravens @ Steelers game that has now been moved to Sunday due to Covid-19.

Gee:	Week 11: 5 – 9	Overall: 74 – 88
Dan:	Week 11: 5 – 9	Overall: 83 – 79

Texans @ Lions (+2.5)

It somehow feels odd that both the Detroit Lions have won four games and the Houston Texans have won three. I have been pretty harsh on the Lions this season, but I was not expecting them to get shut out last week against the Panthers and I am certainly expecting some kind of reaction. That said, the Texans are coming off their own win against of all opponents the Patriots. Unhelpfully, these teams are ranked right next to each other in overall DVOA as a slightly surprising nineteenth and twentieth. I don’t have a strong lean in this one, and the consensus number suggests picking the Texans, but the points at home in what amounts to the Lions’ yearly Super Bowl party has me nervously grabbing the points. It doesn’t hurt that I have to pick us wins against Dan either.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Washington @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys pulled themselves back into the race for the NFC East after they beat the Minnesota Vikings last week. A re-jig of the offensive line and the return of Andy Dalton was enough to dent the Vikings streak of wins as they try to mount their own play-off bid. This makes today’s game against the Washington Football Team even more important and this is another game where I am really not sure where to go. The Football Team are not exactly good, but Alex Smith has given them stability at quarterback, and they have been a tough team to face throughout the season. Their overall ranking by DVOA is actually six places better than the Cowboys, but the consensus line has moved to -3 so this is good value if you like the Cowboys. I don’t like the Cowboys particularly, but I’m not sure I like Washington either and I am wary of bias having watched the Football Team beat the Bengals last week. In short, I want to trust the numbers, but I have conflicting sets of those as well. In the end, there are some trends for both Washington and Cowboys that reluctantly has me going for the Cowboys, but I could feel a real idiot tomorrow as 0-6 or 8-0 runs are probably due to be broken.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Survivor Competition

Well, both of use were wrong last week, with misplaced faith in the Patriots and Vikings being Dan and mine’s downfall. Dan has decided this week to back the Browns over the Jaguars, which is pretty hard to argue with, but isn’t an option for me so after considering going against the Jets or picking the Saints, I have settled on the Seahawks taking on the Eagles.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 8

Week 12 Selection:

Gee: Seahawks
Dan: Browns

Bold Prediction of the Week

I really dislike this feature and particularly struggled with it both before and on the pod, as evidenced by the fact that my shock of the week is the Eagles beating the Seahawks despite selecting opposite that in the survivor pool.

I guess at least this way I have emotionally hedged that game….

Who Needs a Schedule Anyway?

15 Thursday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Tags

Andrew Whitworth, Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Christian McCaffrey, Cincinnati Bengals, Covid-19, Dak Prescott, Dan Quinn, Jamel Dean, Jim Turner, Joe Burrow, Kansas City Chiefs, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Matt Rhule, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Thomas Dimitroff, Tom Brady, TWF NFL Dynasty League, Zac Taylor

Well ,week five finished with an unexpected result that I called wrong in the picks competition, which is becoming a worrying trend, but at least the Titans are back playing games and the NFL looks like it can keep to its scheduling plan for now. Meanwhile, the Bills after facing two scenarios about who they were playing have to move on quickly as they face the Chiefs on Monday night.

That said, I feel all over the place with the site at the moment, and having spent a chunk of time yesterday dealing with how our dynasty league would managed the waiver wire this week given that we were still locked in week five, I delayed this post by a day as there is no competition Thursday this week as we have no Thursday night game.

So let’s take a look at what happened in week five.

What I Saw

The week five Thursday night game was a ragged affair that I still found entertaining thanks to the two good defences on display, but it was frustrating to get my pick wrong as my assessment of the Buccaneers ability was fairly spot on but it was their indiscipline on offence that cost the Bucs this game. The Bucs actually went up by ten points in the first quarter of the game as the Bears struggled to move the ball consistently but kept themselves in touch thanks to their defence. The Bucs finished this game with three-hundred and thirty-nine yards of offence, ninety-six yards more than the Bears were able to generate but the Bucs also were flagged eleven times for a loss of one hundred and nine yards. This was forty-three more yards in penalties than the Bears and the combination of penalties and the Bears defence meant that after the first quarter the Bucs were only able to kick field goals for the rest of the game. That said, despite being streaky, Nick Foles managed to complete more passes that Tom Brady, even with Bucs corner Jamel Dean seeming to wage a one-person battle on the Bears’ passing attack at the end of the game. The Bears were able to do enough on offence against a Bucs defence that was regularly getting pressure to eek out a one point lead at the end of the game, but with how tight the game was the key play might have been when Bucs’ running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn caught a short pass and fumbled the ball setting up the Bears offence with a short field and that led to their second and last touchdown of the game in a crucial burst of point scoring in the second quarter. This is a game that I feel the Bucs really could have and probably should have won, but they need to clean up the penalties if they are to reach their potential. Meanwhile, if the Bears can keep getting enough production from Nick Foles on offence then their defence is good enough that they will keep winning games even if they likely won’t maintain their current twelve win pace or compete with the best teams in the NFL.

I don’t want to spend too much time on the Bengals this week as they were very poor, but the problem remains the offensive line and I’m now getting really worried about Joe Burrow operating behind it. In fact, I have a wider concern, Zac Taylor is a young head coach, hired due to his relationship with Sean McVay and the Bengals stressed how much they committed to his plan with rearrangements of both the practice facilities and offices, as well as hiring Taylor the largest staff they have ever had, but the offensive line is a good representation of my wider worry. Taylor’s choice of Jim Turner as o-line coach didn’t sit well with me from the start. Turner not only tolerated the bullying in his position group whilst at the Dolphins, but the investigation into the resulting scandal implicated him in taking part. Not content with this, when he returned to Texas A&M he was involved in another scandal involving inappropriate jokes at a football clinic for women. It’s one thing for a person to make a mistake and learn from it, but I have no patience for bullies or people who clearly have no interest in reforming their ways. The o-line has been a problem since Andrew Whitworth was let go, and the lead in to last season was undeniably tough with injuries and retirements, but it doesn’t feel like anything is changing or that players are developing and if the head coach can’t see this then I have to wonder about their judgement. It is appears I lied about spending too much time on the Bengals, but moving on to the Ravens – the blip against the Chiefs aside the Ravens are clearly a very good football team who will meet far stiffer challenges over the rest of the season and likely emerge victorious from most of them.

The other early game Sunday game I watched this week was the Carolina Panthers winning their third straight game, beating the still winless Atlanta Falcons. It was not a spectacle of a game, but the seventeen points the Panthers scored in the second quarter was enough for them to comfortably beat a Falcons team who have continued to struggle and that ultimately led to both GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn being fired. The Falcons have been trending this way for a while, but it had to be a difficult decision as a lot of the basis for the team that went to the Super Bowl is still there, but they have just not been able to recapture that form. Meanwhile, the Panthers have quietly got themselves to 3-2 despite losing Christian McCaffery to injury in week two, but could very well still be in contention by the time he returns from IR and that is a lot more than I was expecting of them coming into the season. The rest of this year will be strange for the Falcons as both players and coaches will be trying to prove they belong in the league, but it is going to be a long time before the Falcons as an organisation can do anything directly in terms of replacing their GM and head coach. That said, if the head start in the background checks the Falcons get by making the decision now leads to a similar result as what the Panthers have got so far with their new head coach having made an early change themselves last season then they will be very happy.

The final game I got to watch in week five was the closely fought contest that the Minnesota Vikings narrowly lost 27-26 to the Seattle Seahawks. The Vikings scored thirteen unanswered points to build a halftime lead, but came roaring back in the third quarter with three touchdowns and were taken to the wire by the Vikings. The big talking point coming out of this game was the Vikings decision to go for it on fourth down on the Seahawks’ six yard line with two minutes on the clock rather than kick a field goal. There may well be a statistical argument for doing what they did, both in terms of if they made the first down and in turning the ball over with under two minutes left on the clock on the opponents six yard line, and I would usually totally support the decision if that was the case. However, there are a handful of quarterbacks that you feel could execute a ninety-four yard drive in that time and Russell Wilson would be very much near the top of that list, particularly with the form he is in this season. The Seahawks did precisely that, scored the winning touchdown but failed on the following two-point conversion. The same conversion they would have needed to take the game to overtime if the Vikings had just kicked the field goal and taken an eight point lead. It is easy to be wise in hindsight, and I would normally support the maths, but this is one of the few times where I would countenance taking the safe option.

What I Heard

I am going to have to start taking better notes as I have heard lots of interesting things and couldn’t immediately bring a lot of it to mind. However, one thing that did stick is that whilst looking for what coaching tape to watch, I decided to look at the Football Outsiders DVOA stats for offensive line and have a look at the best team. Well, according to the site the team with the best adjusted line yards were the Cleveland Browns (closely followed by Dan’s Dolphins [the real NFL franchise, not his dynasty team]) and this was not wholly a surprise. Unlike the Bengals, who many people have commented on as being poor (although not in adjusted line yards where they rank a lofty twenty-six despite conceding the most sacks in the season so far), I have heard several people talking about how good the Browns’ offensive line is, and how impressive this was given they had a new coaching staff that had to install their offence during a Covid- shortened pre-season. A lot of credit has brrn given to their o-line coach Bill Callahan, and whilst I don’t know enough to evaluate him or the praise, it does make sense and I am looking forward to getting a head start on the coaching film this week with no Thursday night game.

What I Think

Despite the situation with the Titans, the NFL has as yet not lost a game from their schedule and they will be hoping the problems in Tennessee were an outlier and not a foreshadowing of what is to come. The NFL are continuing to adjust their protocols and re-enforce existing ones with talk of restricting the roles of those who are found to have been close contacts of players who have tested positive. I am still pretty impressed that the season has run as well as it has so far, but we are now heading into autumn with the weather becoming more favourable for the virus so soon we shall know if this start was the positive beginning of getting the season finished, or the warning signs that things are about to get a lot tougher.

What I Know

I know the Bengals o-line is bad, that the Panthers are better than I thought they were and that I am looking forward to seeing what Andy Dalton can do with the Dallas offence this week. It may not seem like much, but with everything going on at the moment I’m clinging to the small things and hoping the rest falls into place. I just hope the NFL have planned more carefully than that!

What I Hope

There is only one possible thin I can hope after the week five games, and that is both that Dak Prescott make a full and speedy recovery from his horrible injury sustained on Sunday and that it is a long time until we see anything similar.

AFC and NFC North Preview

03 Thursday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Pre-Season

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Tags

Aaron Rodgers, AFC North, AJ Green, Andy Dalton, Antonio Brown, Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Deshaun Watson, Detroit Lions, Freddie Kitchens, Gary Kubiak, Green Bay Packers, Jim Caldwell, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Jonah Williams, Jordan Love, Kevin Stefanski, Khalil Mack, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Le'Veon Bell, Mason Rudolph, Matt LaFleur, Matt Patricia, Matthew Stafford, Mike Tomlin, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, Mitchell Trubisky, Myles Garrett, NFC North, NFL, Nick Foles, Odell Beckham, Patrick Mahomes, Pittsburgh Steelers, Stefon Diggs, Zac Taylor

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens finished last season with the best regular season record but came up short in the play-offs against a Tennessee Titans team on a roll. This will lead to ongoing conversations about Lamar Jackson’s ability to win play-off games. That question is going to hang around until he does, but Jackson was the 2019 MVP for a reason, namely over three thousand yards of passing and twelve hundred yards on the ground. The Ravens did a great job of building their offence around Jackson and had a top five by DVOA defence to boot. The Ravens are in fact one of the better run franchises in the league so as long as Jackson can stay healthy then it is hard not to see this team competing again this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers went 8-8 last season despite losing veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in week two to an elbow injury. Their defece ranked third in the league by DVOA and their special teams was was top ten but a dead last offence saw them miss out on the play-offs. This is perhaps not surprising given they had no killer Bs left after Big Ben went down with Le’Veon Bell underwhelming for the Jets and Antonio Brown’s erratic and troubling behaviour seeing him barely play for Patriots before being cut for a second time having already failed to make the start of the season with the Raiders. The Steelers are another stable franchise so if Roethlisberger can stay healthy while getting somewhere near his best and the defence manages not to regress too much then they should be in contention come the end of the year. There are no guarantees in the NFL, and the AFC North should be a battle this year but I expect the Steelers to be in contention again as they usually are. That said, out of the thirteen season he has been head coach for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin has only failed to reach the play-offs in five, but that does include the last two seasons. I wouldn’t expect this to lead to problems for Tomlin if there are further struggles this season as the Steelers have been famously patient with their coaches and he did a great job under the circumstances, but it could be one to keep an eye on.

Cleveland Browns

Turmoil seems to follow the Browns ever since their return to the league, but last year was a nightmare. They had play-off ambitions with a talented roster and a new head coach in Freddit Kitches who had established a connection with young quarterback Baker Mayfield in his rookie year. However, things were not right all season. Mayfield regressed in his second season with a falling completion percentage and similar numbers despite starting the full season for the first time. One of his new receiving targets, Odell Beckham was injured all year and so did not look like himself and nothing quite clicked on offence. The defence was hamstrung with Myles Garrett got involved in a fight with Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph, and having hit the quarterback over the head with their own helmet was suspended for the final six games of the season. The Browns come into this season with another new head coach, who almost can’t help being better than Freddie Kitchens and there is still plenty of talent on the roster, but Mayfield needs to take a step as a quarterback and so a lot is resting on how he will run new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s system. I have a feeling that thinkg will be better for the Browns, but in a competitive division I’m not sure if they will be able to push for the play-offs or not.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were truly woeful last year in Zac Taylor’s first season as head coach. Some of that wasn’t his fault as AJ Green was lost to an ankle injury that was picked up at the first training camp practice, which for an NFL 100 event was played on a high school field they should never have been on and soon after that the Bengals’ first round draft pick, left tackle Jonah Williams, was lost to a shoulder injury whilst they were still in camp. In fact, the offensive line was bad all year as the offence struggled so much they had to rip up the approach halfway through to get Joe Mixon going and the defence was bad. They had the worst record in the league for a reason, but they were within a touchdown in half of their fourteen losses and after several seasons where Andy Dalton could never find the form he showed in the 2015 the Bengals moved on, taking college sensation Joe Burrow with the first pick after his ridiculously good Heisman winning season at LSU where he led the Tigers to the college championship. All the talk is that he’s been learning the playbook during the offseason via zoom and has looked in good in training camp, but who hasn’t looked good in training camp this year? There’s no way to know without seeing him in games, and the offensive line needs to be better for him to operate successfully, but there are still lots of good skill players and if they don’t need a perfect pocket for the quarterback to operate then they stand a solid chance of improving on that side of the ball. The Bengals defence has a re-tooled linebacker group and the team signed some free-agents, but it’s hard to get too excited. I think there is a good chance this team will look better and win some more game, they might even flirt with going .500 but after such a bad season I don’t think you can expect a worst to first type performance with a rookie quarterback, and particularly not in this division. I would love to be proved wrong but I think this should be a season of growth for the Bengals and after last season that will be okay.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

I think this is one of the more intriguing division in football, and last year’s division winners are an interesting case in point. The Packers went 13-3 and got to the Conference Championship game, but were handily beaten by the 49ers and gave up over two-hundred and fifty yards of running in that game. A lot of the talk through the season and on into the off-season was the play of Aaron Rodgers who still threw for over four thousand yards despite what many were calling a down year and his new head coach Matt LaFleur’s focus on running the ball. If there were to be signs of this approach changing, they were not obvious in the Packers offseason. Not only did they not take a receiver again this draft, but they traded up in the first round to select quarterback Jordan Love. It might be that the Packers are taking the view that you should always have a quarterback in development, or that they saw the opportunity to recreate the transition the Packers had from Brett Farve to Rodgers, but it was a significant move. Given the age of Rodgers (36) and the change of both GM and head coach in recent seasons, they could simply be preparing to move on. However, whilst Rodgers is clearly closer to the end of his career than the start, with modern sports medicine and the NFL’s current rules to protect quarterbacks he should still have several productive years yet and has spoken of playing into forties. The Packers might be expected to regress from thirteen wins this season and will be looking to further improve their defence. I suspect they will remain competitive, but I can’t help but feel this will be a team battling to maintain their success rather than taking a step forward.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings won a play-off game against the Saints before losing to the Super Bowl bound 49ers in the divisional round, but this did give quarterback Kirk Cousins his first play-off win of his career. Under head coach Mike Zimmer the Vikings have alternated years in the play-offs with seasons missing out despite being around 8-8, but they had a busy off-season and they would be hoping these transactions will helps them build on last season’s success rather than having a fallow year. However, integrating a draft class of fifteen was always going to be a big task, but doing so with the current practice restriction in place for this season could be a step too far. This is particularly the case for an overhauled secondary that lost three starting corners with over 223 collective career games. I have a lot of faith in coach Zimmer to look after a defence, but it makes me hesitant to be too bullish on them, particularly given the number of offensive coordinators that the Vikings have been through under Zimmer and the fact that they traded away star receiver Stefon Diggs. Going into the season with so many unknows makes it hard to be certain of anything, and given the limited number of games in an NFL season there is a certain amount of randomness built in. I like that Gary Kubiak is the offensive coordinator having consulted last season before Kevin Stefanski left for the Browns, and I think the Vikings will compete for the division but I can easily see things going awry for them in a potentially turmultous season.

Chicago Bears

There is a large amount of anxiety surrounding the Bears, which mainly stems from the quarterback position as Mitchell Trubisky regressed in 2019 after a promising first season in head coach Matt Nagy’s debut as a head coach. I never liked the trade up to pick Trubisky, and that pick looks even worse given that the Bears picked him ahead of both Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The offence ranked a miserable twenty-fifth by DVOA whilst the defence regressed from first in 2018 by DVOA to eighth in 2019. The defence will likely be good enough, but with Trubisky now having Nick Foles in the quarterback room there is the potential for a quarterback controversy, although it is hard to have a huge amount of faith in either one as Foles has a history of inconsistent play. Special mention should go to Khalil Mack as the fearsome pass rusher he is, but I’m not sure that the fairly traditional for the Bears formula of stout defence and a struggling offence is going to cut it in 2020, and likely wasn’t envisioned when offensive minded coach Nagy was hired. The Bears could surprise me, but I’m not putting any faith in it.

Detroit Lions

The Lions opened last season with a concerning draw to the very inexperienced Arizona Cardinals, dragged themselves to 2-0-1, before falling back to 3-3-1 and failing to win another game. They were not helped by losing quarterback Matthew Stafford halfway through the season, who was playing well and very nearly had two and half thousand yards through eight games. My concern here is that the Lions were a nearly team under Jim Caldwell, but 9-7 was not deemed good enough when the Lions missed out on the playoffs and so Matt Patricia was brought in from the Patriots to get the Lions the play-off success Detroit thirsts so much for. However, Patricia has rebuilt the Lions as a pale re-imagining of the Patriots and has been unable to recreate the Patriot’s defensive formula away from Belichick. The Lions have only managed to win nine games in the last two season and whilst I can see that if everything goes right that the Lions might vault the Bears in this division, I’m not sure if I can see them doing much more. Matthew Stafford has some good skill players around him so it’s not impossible, but given the history in Detroit it could take a monumental effort to turn things around. Equally, the Lions could be due for a change, but for whatever reason, I do not find Patricia inspiring but as I tend to hope for success he could yet prove me wrong.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

The End of the 2019 Regular Season

01 Wednesday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adam Gase, Adam Vinatieri, AFC West, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Anthony Lynn, Baker Mayfield, Ben Roethlisberger, Brian Flores, Carson Wentz, Chris Ballard, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Daniel Jones, Dave Caldwell, Dean Spanos, Denver Broncos, Derek Carr, Disappointed Twenty, Doug Marrone, Drew Lock, Eric Rowe, Frank Reich, Freddie Kitchens, Gardner Minshew III, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Haslam, Joe Burrow, John Dorsey, Jon Gruden, Josh Jacobs, LA Chargers, Las Vegas, London, Marshawn Lynch, Miami Dolphins, Mike Mayock, Mike Tomlin, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Philip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Regular Season, Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, San Francisco 49ers, Saquon Barkley, Seattle Seahawks, Stephon Gilmore, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin, Vic Fangio, Zac Taylor

So here we are at the end of the regular season, but the start of playoffs and a new decade. I’m going to do a recap of the games I watched in week seventeen before I run through the AFC side of the Disappointed Twenty, and will follow up tomorrow with the NFC side.

What I Saw

The first game I watched in week seventeen had no bearing on the playoffs or draft position, but it still made me happy as the Cincinnati Bengals secured only their second win of the season as they beat the Cleveland Browns in a relatively comfortable manner. The Bengals pass rush was able to harass Baker Mayfield all game and got six sacks as well as picking him off three times. I’ll be talking about both of these teams in my roundup so only thing I will add here is that I was surprisingly happy about this win, even if it was ultimately meaningless in the wider scheme of things.

Whilst the Bengals win had no real affect on things, one of the other TWF teams had a definitive effect on the playoffs even thought they will not be playing either. For a bad season in terms of results, there has been much to be cheered about this season for a Miami Dolphins team, who got more wins that you are supposed to whilst rebooting your roster and look to have found a really good head coach who cemented this view with a win against the New England Patriots that cost their divisional foes a bye week and throws them into an eminently losable match-up against the Tennessee Titans next week. The problems that have plagued the Patriots offence resurfaced this week, but in addition Tom Brady threw a horrid pick-six where he sailed a ball between two receivers that Eric Rowe grabbed and took gratefully into the end zone. If that wasn’t bad enough, Stephon Gilmore did not look at all like the shutdown corner he has looked like for most of the season and the Pats’ defence did not look itself. I’m still not going to declare the Patriots done until I’ve seen them eliminated, but I can’t remember a recent time where the Pats looked this vulnerable this late in the season.

There were two divisions up for grabs in week seventeen and the first of them to be won saw the Philadelphia Eagles finish their mission impossible with four straight wins despite the injuries that plagued them all season. Their final victim were the New York Giants who offered up some glimpses of what Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley might be able to achieve between them as the Giants kept the game close into the fourth quarter, helped by an impressive sixty-eight yard touchdown run from Barkley, but whilst Jones managed to outgain the Eagles’ Carson Wentz through the air, he could not match his care with the ball and the Eagles finished strongly to win 34-17.

The final game of the regular season was to decide the AFC West as the Seattle Seahawks hosted the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers had dipped in form thanks to injury but looked to be getting back to some of their mid-season form in recent weeks and got out to a strong start in this one, building a thirteen point lead that should have been more whilst holding the Seahawks scoreless. The Seahawks have injury problems of their own, hence the signing of Marshawn Lynch out of retirement, who provoked a huge response from the Seattle crowd despite not producing that many yards but did get a touchdown. However, Russel Wilson was able to work out the 49ers defence in the second half and mount a comeback that very easily could have produced the win were it not for a combination of refereeing and the return of late game mismanagement. The Seahawks had three downs on the one-yard line to get the winning touchdown, or would have if they had not been called for delay of game and then failed to get in from the five. The result means the Seahawks travel to face the Eagles and could very well face the 49ers again before the end of the playoffs.

The Disappointed Twenty: AFC Edition

So here is my quick run through the AFC teams who missed out on the playoffs.

The New York Jets finished 7-9, despite losing their starting quarterback to mono and so you could say that this was not a bad year. The problem is that I am not convinced by Adam Gase as a head coach these days, but whilst I don’t think he has done anything to lose his job, a lot will be riding on next season.

I have already mentioned that the Dolphins looked to have found a really good head coach in Brian Flores, and with the influx of picks coming in the next couple of years things could really take off for the Dolphins. They need to find a franchise quarterback, and Dan would very much like them to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick as a mentor/capable backup, but if the Dolphins get the picks right they could be peaking as the Patriots enter into a new phase of the franchise.

Given the Pittsburgh Steelers lost their franchise quarterback to injury in week two, their 8-8 record is very creditable, and Mike Tomlin answered those who suggested that the Steelers might need to make a change at head coach. However, now having fixed the defence it is the offence that needs attention now, and given this franchise’s record of finding receivers in recent years you would like to think this is possible. However, the Steelers are another franchise who will need a new quarterback sooner than later, but we shall have to see if Ben Roethlisberger has another trip to the playoffs in him.

The Cleveland Browns had a horrible year full of dysfunction and disappointment that ended with the firing of both Freddie Kitchens and GM John Dorsey. I wrote that there were warning signs before the season, and having created a roster full of character issues and not been prepared to change his role after a discussion with owner Jimmy Haslam, Dorsey lost his job for it. There is a lot to put right in Cleveland and it feels like they need a coach capable of building a winning culture at the Browns and sorting out Baker Mayfield. Given their track record it’s hard to have faith that Haslam will get this decision right but the fans in Cleveland definitely deserve better.

The results for the Bengals may have been hugely disappointed, but the culture in Cincinnati certainly seemed to hold up through the season and the players were saying good things about Zac Taylor. It looks like Joe Burrow is going to be the Bengals selection with the first overall pick, which is exciting because of both the player he is and the person he seems to be (Heisman Speech). I always hoped that Andy Dalton would get the right team to prove people wrong as under the right circumstances he was a really good quarterback (that 2015 team will forever haunt me because of his injury) and I hope he gets to enjoy success going forward, but I am ready for a new leader and hopefully a better team. It will need to be given the how good the Ravens are likely to be for years to come.

The Indianapolis Colts had their plans for the season thrown into the air with Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement, but further burnished the credentials of head coach Frank Reich by going 7-9 with Jacoby Brissett as quarterback and with some different injury luck could have won more game. I wonder if they will be looking at quarterbacks in the off-season, but given their franchise progress over the last couple of years under GM Chris Ballard I see them being competitive again next season. That said, the other reason they struggled this year was that after a Hall of Fame career, kicker Adam Vinatieri had a bad year before having knee surgery that ended his season. It’s hard to see a forty-seven year old man coming back next season, but you would have said that for a number of seasons before now and it has been an incredibly impressive career that should not tarnished by a difficult season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a disappointing year where a sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew outplayed their prime off-season signing at quarterback. The Jaguars have provided a structural conundrum for a while and really need to establish an identity, but it is interesting that after a second season of missing the playoffs they are keeping GM Dave Caldwell and head coach Doug Marrone in place having fired Tom Coughlin once the players’ union announced that the Jaguars accounted for 25% of all their filed grievances. I’m really not sure what to expect next season as there are a lot of questions surrounding their roster and we shall have to see if they can get everyone pointed in the right direction next season.

The Denver Broncos finished the season with four wins out of five and in Drew Lock may well have finally found a quarterback to follow Peyton Manning. It may have taken some time for Vic Fangio to get things working for the Broncos in his first year, but if they can build on their late season success in the off-season then the Broncos can be back in contention next season.

The last year of the Raiders playing in Oakland saw them improve by three wins from 2018, but Jon Gruden still finished with a losing record and questions will continue to be asked about quarterback Derek Carr. The Raiders lost their first round safety early in the season, but rookie running back Josh Jacobs established himself as franchise back until he was injured and if the Raiders can continue to add talent they can compete for the playoffs in their first season in Las Vegas. There’s still something that is making me hesitate to say they will do this, but if Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden have a second good off-season and don’t have the distractions of Antonio Brown they could easily do so.

It felt like Philip Rivers was saying goodbye after the LA Chargers last game, and the franchise seems to be in flux having failed to build on last year’s success, hampered again by injuries and seeming short on fans in LA. I don’t know what is going to happen to this franchise in the off-season, head coach Anthony Lynn seems safe but the Chargers need a new quarterback and something to bring the fans in. To be honest I’m not sure they are going to make a success of life in LA and whilst I think a possible move to London is a non-story (as their owner colourfuly explained earlier this year), I do think they could rue the day they left San Diego, even if Dean Spanos is unlikely to admit it.

That’s it for today’s post – check back tomorrow for a round up of the NFC teams as Competition Thursday swings into gear.

Already Thinking of Next Season?

18 Wednesday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Aaron Rodgers, Adam Gase, AJ Brown, Andy Dalton, Baltimore Ravens, Bill O'Brien, Black Hole, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jonnu Smith, Mike McCarthy, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Tennessee Titans, Urban Meyer, Will Fuller

I’m starting this week’s post early as Christmas is already messing with my usual weekly schedule, and it’s still over a week away so let’s see what I can get out written for you and when – the timeline of this week’s post might be a little out of sync.

What I Saw

The final Thursday night football of the 2019 season (which feels like a very odd thing to be writing right now) was a one sided contest where the good home (Baltimore Ravens) beat the poor road team (New York Jets) and covered a fourteen and a half point spread to boot. It was more of the same for the Ravens who continued to sweep away all in their path. I’m thoroughly enjoying watching the Ravens play and the surprising thing about this game was only that they managed to run for over two hundred yards going against the league’s second rated rush defence going into this game by DVOA. I’m curious what happens to the Jets in the off-season as Adam Gase manoeuvred his own person into the GM role, but he has struggled mightily this season whilst his former underachieving quarterback Ryan Tannehil is playing like a man transformed in Tennessee (correct at time of writing, I have not watched the Titans game yet – that’s coming later). Given his win-loss record and that the thing Gase is meant to be is a quarterback whisperer, the performance of this Jets team and Sam Darnold in particular has to lead to some pressure coming Gase’s way as questions need to be asked.

The next game I watched was the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay Packers, which was a strange game in that for long periods the Packers defence had control of the Bears offence whilst the Packers offence did enough to eek out a lead. The Packers were able to withstand a fourth quarter comeback as Trubisky found enough success to get to within eight points, but it was too little too late. The funny thing about this game is that for a large stretch of the game the Packers looked better, but the offence still doesn’t look quite right and Aaron Rodgers seems to be having a quiet year, but at 11-3 Packers fans might not be complaining too much until the playoffs. I’m not sure the Packers have what it will take to compete with the elite of the NFC despite their record but that could change rapidly if Rodgers can find some of his previous form and I would be hesitant to bet against that. Meanwhile, the Bears have recovered from some of their problems this season but face some big decisions about Trubisky and the direction of the team in the off-season, which looks like it could start at the end of week seventeen.

One of the games with the most riding on the result in week fifteen was that divisional matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans, where the Texans ran out 24-21 winners but could have won much more convincingly if Deshaun Watson hadn’t throw two interceptions in the endzone. Equally the Titans looked to move the ball more effectively for long stretches of this game and had their own ricochet interception near the Texan’s goal line. The result gives the Texans a big edge in the race for the division and they have the easier game next week as they take on the Buccaneers whilst the Titans have to take on the Saints next week. It may well be that the Titans don’t quite make the playoffs but they look to have found something in Ryan Tannehill and his connection with developing rookie receiver AJ Brown, whilst tight-end Jonnu Smith caught the eye with his speed both catching the ball and rushing for fifty-seven yards from his one snap at running back. The Titans might well be the more consistent team over the last eight weeks, but don’t look to be able to overcome the 2-4 start to make the playoffs, whilst the Texans can compete with anyone when healthy and if they go into the playoffs with receiver Will Fuller healthy then they will be a danger to whoever they face. Their ability to win games whilst being out-gained is what happens when you have a couple of superstar players who can turn a game for you with big moments and receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a huge fourth quarter in this one. I’m sure Bill O’Brien would love his team to play more consistently from week to week, but for a coach whose future is often speculated upon he has gone to the playoffs and won the division in three of his six years and only had one season with a losing record. My worry for this team is the future given the draft picks they have given up this year, but they are a dangerous team that no one will want to face come the playoffs.

The last game I watched was the New England Patriots easy win over the Cincinnati Bengals, which even after we hear more about the dubious taping of the Bengals side-line last week, I’m still not that upset about that and this was pretty much business as usual and no team needs that much of an edge to beat the Bengals at the moment. The Bengals were competitive for the first half and moved the ball okay, but the problems in the red-zone and turnovers once again doomed the Bengals to a loss. This was not helped by Andy Dalton throwing four picks, including a pick-six to Stephon Gilmore who had a second interception and kept Tyler Boyd to three catches for twenty-six yards. The Patriots offence still looked to be struggling, whilst the Bengals ran for one hundred and sixty-four yards against the Patriots defence and outgained the Patriots offence. I still can’t sit here and say the Patriots won’t compete in the playoffs, but it would not exactly be a surprise if this team can’t turn it around in the post-season as there are warning signs. However, we have been here before and having gone to four of the last five Super Bowls and won three of them, I’m not saying the Patriots are out of it until they absolutely are.

What I Heard

There’s been a lot of different topics, including more on the Patriots documentary filming as a section of the film was leaked on Monday.

More interesting to me though, has been the discussion of ex-Packers coach Mike McCarthy who has apparently hired himself a staff to be the thirty-third team in the NFL so he can work the 2019 season. McCarthy has also been investigating analytics and was talking about his staff plan for the football technology team he wants. Obviously press like this doesn’t just happen, and after a year off he will be definitely looking to get back into coaching and is trying to drum interest, but it does sound like a positive thing to hear from a coach who was accused of lacking innovation in the final years of the time with the Packers. Despite the focus on young play callers in recent years, it’s not difficult to see some teams going for either McCarthy or Ron Rivera in a few weeks.

There has also been some discussion about former college coach Urban Meyer as he was seen in a press box at Washington, which has fueled speculation that he might be a target as the new coach for Washington or that the Cowboys might be interested in him should Jason Garrett fail to produce a significant playoff success.

It seems the days of waiting until Black Monday after week seventeen to fire your coach and start the search is well behind us, that allows this kind of speculation to get started well before the season is even done.

What I Think

There were a number of unexpected results over the weekend, which in of itself is not that unusual given the parity of the league and the small sample size, but even so the 49ers losing to the Falcons and the Jaguars beating the Raiders were two results that jumped out to me as well as the Cowboys beating the Rams 44-21.

It feels odd for the final Raiders game in Oakland to be a 16-20 loss to the Jaguars in week fifteen, and a fairly ignominious end for one of the most famous home sections in the league. The moving of franchises always feels alien to me as it is something that happens so rarely in the UK, but with two teams moving to Los Angeles and now the Raiders moving to Las Vegas, there are a lot of franchises in flux at the moment. The Vegas move might well be the most successful in terms of fan support (the Rams are having problems and the Chargers nearly always play to more away fans their tiny temporary stadium), but it still feels sad to be the Black Hole. The Oakland stadium needed renovating or replacing, but you can’t just replace or recreate the Black Hole and there is something inherently sad for those fans even if all things must end.

What I Know

I know that I need a miracle to turn around the picks competition, and that this off-season I really need to find time to go through my spreadsheets from the end of last season, work out my method/formula and combine that with my pick system this season and see if I can come up with a formula to get back into contention next season.

What I Hope

I am actually beginning to embrace the idea of the Bengals selecting Ohio raised Joe Burrow in the draft and seeing if he can turn round the team next season, but a lot of other things also have to improve for us to recover from a woeful 2019 season. Still there’s good football left to enjoy this season so let’s not get ahead of ourselves too much.

On the Home Straight

04 Wednesday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brandon McManus, Buffalo Bills, Carlos Dunlap, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Dalvin Cook, David Blough, David Tepper, Detroit Lions, Drew Brees, Houston Texans, Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones, Josh Allen, Justin Tucker, Kenny Galloday, Kirk Cousins, LA Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, NFL, Ron Rivera, Russell Wilson, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Tom Brady

There is now only a quarter of the regular season left and week thirteen saw the Bengals win their first game, the Panthers part with one of the longest tenured coaches in the league, and Jason Garrett looks to be heading the same way at the end of the season after the Cowboys loss on Thanksgiving so let’s take a look at a busy week in the NFL.

What I Saw

The first Thanksgiving game saw the Chicago Bears take on a struggling Detroit Lions team who were down to their third starting quarterback, but after a successful first defensive drive – David Blough completed a deep pass to Kenny Galloday for a seventy-five yard touchdown and for most of the game the Lions were able stay ahead or level with he Bears but ultimately the Lions couldn’t hold on and the Bears won 24-20. Things are still not great for the Bears but this was a decent performance whilst the Lions have lost a fifth straight as things are just not working, and not getting pressure on Mitch Trubisky was enough for him to have a three hundred yards passing day, a rare thing for the Bears this year.

Next up the Buffalo Bills rolled into Dallas and ground out a win against the Cowboys to take themselves to 9-3, which gives them a two-game lead against any other second placed team in the AFC. The Bills took the chance to demonstrate the tough defence and steady progress of their second-year quarterback Josh Allen on the national stage. The Cowboys meanwhile continue to confound, and whilst this is not the first time there has been talk about Jason Garrett losing his job it definitely feels like the problems with the Cowboys have become too much for Jerry Jones.

The final Thanksgiving game was a strange contest that saw the New Orleans Saints out-gained by the Atlanta Falcons but ran out winners thanks to some steady kicking and the Falcons three turnovers. The Falcons mini-recovery was not sustainable whilst the Saints are still looking very competitive in what is a loaded NFC. The fact that the Saints managed to get to 10-2 without Drew Brees for five games is a demonstration of how good their coaching staff is and should not be forgotten amongst the other outstanding performances this season.

The first Sunday game I’m going to write about was a match-up of another pair of outstanding 2019 teams as the San Francisco 49ers traveled right across the country and played an early game against the Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers defence were helped by the rain and managed to contain the Ravens all game but lost to a last second Justiun Tucker forty-nine yard field goal from one of the best kickers to play the game. It’s almost unfair for a team who has one of the most explosive offences in the league to have such a good kicker, but the 49ers looked to be every bit as good in this game and I think people would be very happy to see this match-up again in a Super Bowl.

The other Sunday game I watched was the Cincinnati Bengals proving me wrong on Sunday and comfortably beating the New York Jets. The Bengals defence seems to have come on in the last few weeks whilst the injuries have caught up with the Jets who struggled to move the ball all game whilst the Bengals got lots of pressure and Carlos Dunlap racked up three sacks. On offence, Andy Dalton threw for two touchdowns to break the franchise record for passing touchdowns on his return to the starting line-up and looked solid in distributing the ball getting help from some impressive catches. I’m really pleased for the Bengals as no one wants to be another team to go winless and what I liked was the talk about not being satisfied but trying to build good habits and momentum for next season. We shall have to see. As for the Jets, they really struggled and I’m really not sure what they will do in the off-season given the disappointment this season has been given the investment over the summer.

The final game of the week was a great contest between the Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks where the Seahawks were able to withstand a late game comeback from the Vikings a finish the game 37-30 winners. There will be a lot of talk about Kirk Cousins’ 0-8 Monday night record and I certainly had more faith in Russell Wilson but the injury to Dalvin Cook and a couple of drops by the normally reliable Stefon Diggs didn’t help Cousins. Given the quality of the Vikings’ defence you would expect to score thirty points and win a game but they were competitive and I would imagine they feel like they could still win against any team going forward. The Vikings fell a game behind the Green Bay Packers at the top of the NFC North, but with three divisional games their fate is very much in their own hands. As for the Seahawks, they have the same number of wins as the 49ers in the NFC West and are looking to kick on into the playoffs and see just how far they can get.

What I Heard

There has been plenty of talk about the Cowboys as there always is, but Jason Garrett is not the only coach to be under scrutiny. The LA Chargers found another way to lose a close game, this time not ensuring their opponents had to return a kick off and eat up clock so there was just time for the Denver Broncos to try a deep pass that drew a pass interference penalty and Brandon McManus to hit a fifty-three yard field goal in the thin Denver air to clinch the game.

There had already been speculation around Ron Rivera given the Panthers current losing streak so when the Panthers lost to Washington this Sunday, new owner David Tepper decided he wanted to get an early start on finding a successor and fired Rivera on Tuesday. The two time NFL Coach of the Year who took the Panthers to a Super Bowl stated his desire to get straight back into coaching today and it would not surprise me at all to see him in charge of a different team next season.

What I Think

I have gone through multiple games this week and still the headlines come. The New England Patriots are having problems in the passing game and weren’t helped by an illness running through the team that saw them take two planes to Houston, but segregating the ill players didn’t help them stay in the game against the Texans. I don’t know if the problems the Patriots have are solvable, but I don’t think anyone doubts that if there is a solution, the combination of the coaches and Brady will find it. However, with the Ravens marching on and the Chiefs looking like they are coming into form at the right time it could be a new team representing the AFC after a hat-trick of appearances from the Patriots.

There looks to several strong teams at the top of both conferences and if everyone can stay healthy in the last month we could have an exceptionally good series of playoff games. I don’t want to wish away the season, and there’s plenty of interesting match-ups to come but it does feel like we have a bumper crop of teams with realistic shots at playoff success.

What I Know

There are only four games left and whilst many teams are gearing up for a playoff run, there are also a lot of teams who will be looking at players at the bottom of the roster as they try to evaluate who they think will be the cornerstone of turning things round next season. It seems crazy to be thinking about that already, but this is the reality of the NFL.

What I Hope

I really do hope that the teams at the top of the divisions stay healthy so the outcomes are determined on the field and not in the training room.

Thanksgiving Prep

27 Wednesday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, Devlin Hodges, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Mason Rudolph, Mike Tomlin, New York Jets, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ross Tucker, Ryan Finley, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Ty Hilton, Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller

With the three Thanksgiving games coming up tomorrow there is a feast of prime-time football for everyone to enjoy so let’s take a look at the run up to week thirteen as we near the final quarter of the season.

What I Saw

On Thursday night we saw a close divisional game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans where the Texans were able to eek out a win. This was not a spectacular game but a tough tense one where the Texans were able to bounce back from their heavy defeat against the Ravens the week before by stepping up their defensive performance and making enough plays on offence with receivers Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins working well as a tandem. The Texans do look a different team when they have both of these receivers fit, but the Colts were as competitive as they have been all season, getting more out of their offence than I feared because of their injuries, but in the end a couple of drops by TY Hilton cost them the game. This was Hilton’s first game back after several weeks out with a calf injury, but he wasn’t using that as an excuse and the backups to Marlon Mack (out with a broken hand) ran the ball well enough but the Colts fell short in the end. Still, the Colts are not out of the race for the AFC South but with the Titans catching them up with another win this week the race for this division could get very interesting. I’m not sold on the Texans being the ultimate winners even if they have a game lead for now.

On Sunday the Cincinnati Bengals welcomed their local rivals, and even led the game for a while but in the end fell to the all too familiar loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a close 10-16 game. The Steelers didn’t look that great doing it as whilst their defence played well, holding the Bengals offence to multiple three and out drives as Ryan Finley never looked comfortable, it took a change in quarterback to spark enough offence for the Steelers to win but more about that in a moment. For the Bengals, Tyler Boyd made some great catches and Joe Mixon showed flashes in the run game but they couldn’t move the ball consistently. The Bengals defence has looked stouter over the last couple of weeks but that doesn’t really matter if you regularly can’t even get to twenty points and the Bengals have barely managed that this season. The desperation for a win is clearly growing as the Bengals are going back to Andy Dalton this week, and with a game against the Dolphins, two against the Browns, and the Jets visiting this weekend they will be hoping to break their duck somewhere. As for the Steelers, they are comfortable in this kind of defensive game as they are not prone to the long touchdown concession the Bengals are, and when Mason Rudolph was struggling Mike Tomlin made the switch to Devlin Hodges in game who promptly threw for the seventy-nine yard touchdown play that did enough for the Steelers to maintain a push for a wildcard spot. They probably need to win three or four games and have results go their way to be in with a shot but they are at least still alive in the chase.

I was planning to watch the Patriots take on the Cowboys, but given the weather in New England I made the switch to watch the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Tennessee Titan’s and it was a curious watch. It was nip and tuck until the third quarter with both teams moving the ball but struggling to maintain drives yet the four point deficit at half time was the closest the Jaguars would get after the Titans opening touchdown. A twenty-eight-point explosion in the third quarter sealed the game for the Titans with Derrick Henry breaking out for the type of monster game that he has proved multiple times he is capable of but we don’t always see. Henry finished the game with one hundred and fifty nine yards, with a seventy-four yard long touchdown run very much being the highlight. The Titans have now won four of their last five games since switching to Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback and you begin to wonder where they might be if they had made the switch earlier. It is strange to think that the Jaguars were in the AFC championship game two seasons ago and have a Super Bowl winning quarterback but don’t look great, and you begin to wonder what changes await in the off-season for a coaching staff and front-office who have never been able to repeat their first year of success.

The final game I watched this was the incredible looking matchup of the Green Bay Packers visiting the San Francisco 49ers that turned into a romp for the 49ers. I was worried about the extra half point in the picks competition because of how good Aaron Rodgers is, which turns out to have been no problem at all for the 49ers. Their defence smothered the Packers, holding them to under two hundred yards total offence and Rodgers could only throw for one hundred and eighteen yards. He didn’t throw any interceptions, but fumbled the ball away whilst being sacked and couldn’t get comfortable all game. The 49ers defence limited Rodgers ability to bide time in the pocket, which so few teams have managed to do but this enabled then to get five sacks and numerous hits whilst Fred Warner racked up eleven solo tackles at the heart of the defence. I don’t think the Packers are suddenly a bad team, but there appears to be a gap between the 49ers and the rest of the top teams in the NFC that does still include the Packers. What this game did do was increase my respect yet again for the 49ers defence, who are still second in the league by DVOA to the Patriots’ defence but whilst there is 6.6% between the 49ers and Patriots, there is 14.9% back to the third place Steelers. I knew the 49ers were playing well on this side of the ball, but seeing them play together is really impressive and I can’t wait to see them go against the Ravens next week.

What I Heard

The headlines from the weekend focussed a lot on the fall out of the ugly game between the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys, where the weather hampered both teams but the Patriots adapted whilst the Cowboys did not and with Jerry Jones criticising Jason Garrett the speculation about his job security has started up again. There are plenty of valid criticisms of both Garrett’s game management and his game planning but after a number of years without change, the talent of the current Cowboy’s roster seems to giving a Jones a different impression of the job Garrett is doing. Everything with he Cowboys get over-covered, and this is hardly the first time that rumours have started but it is beginning to look like a change is finally coming for one of the longest tenured head coaches in the league.

The other thing that leaps to mind was Ross Tucker commenting on how quietly the Buffalo Bills have gone 8-3 this season. That said they do get a chance this Thanksgiving Thursday to put on a good showing for the nation as they take on the Dallas Cowboys and I’m definitely looking forward to the chance to watch them again.

What I Think

This week felt like an odd one, there were one or two results that I just didn’t see coming, several blow outs, a couple of weather affected games, but not a lot of games grabbed the attention with how one sided the match ups actually played out. I can’t wait to se the Raven take on the 49ers this and the Vikings take on the Seahawks this weekend. I don’t know how I feel about the Bengals’ game against the Jets yet.

What I Know

That this is one of the highlight weeks of the season, where I can get to see an extra two games in a wee and four without knowing the scores (the joys of catching up in the UK) and so I’m determined to sit back and enjoy the games as much as I can.

What I Hope

I hope that whether your watching round work, taking a day off, or are in the States and celebrating the day, that you have a good one!

Separating the Merely Bad from the Truly Awful

06 Wednesday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adam Gase, Adam Thielen, AJ Green, Andy Dalton, Andy Reid, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bruce Allen, Cincinnati Bengals, Dan Quinn, Dan Snyder, DeAndre Hopkins, Dee Ford, Denver Broncos, Deshaun Watson, Gardner Minshew III, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jim Turner, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kansas City Chiefs, Kenyan Drake, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, London Games, Marvin Lewis, Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins, Mike Brown, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, Nick Bosa, Nick Foles, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Finley, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Darnold, San Francisco 49ers, Todd Bowles, Tom Brady, Trent Williams, Washington, Zac Taylor

With week nine over we have one unbeaten team left, another year of London games completed, and Adam Gase continued to cause the Miami Dolphins problems by being so bad with the New York Jets that they lost to a Dolphins team who are not actually trying to win this year as they reboot their roster. So let’s take a swing through the NFL and what they have coming up.

What I Saw

The Thursday night game was more competitive than I was expecting as the Arizona Cardinals marched down the field in the opening drive and scored a touchdown then late in the game managed to claw their way back into contention but ultimately lost to the visiting San Francisco 49ers. Sadly for the Cardinals, the stretch from the end of the first quarter to early in the fourth allowed the 49ers to build a big enough lead to win. The plus points for the Cardinals were Kyler Murray’s continued improvement, posting a quarterback rating of 130.7 in this game and new acquired Kenyan Drake running for one hundred and ten yards on only fifteen carries as he managed to find creases in the 49ers normally excellent front seven. That said, the pass rush of the 49ers is very impressive and whilst only generated the three sacks, they seemed to be causing problems on most plays with Dee Ford catching the eye opposite rookie Nick Bosa. The 49ers offence was just as impressive with Jimmy Garoppolo posting his own quarterback rating of over 130 as well as four touchdowns and over three hundred yards of passing, all whilst the rushing attack had to use thirty-one carries to get to one hundred and one yards. There are definite signs that Kyler Murray can be productive in the NFL and find his way, but this was always going to be a building year for the Cardinals, whilst after several of their own building years it looks like Kyle Shanahan’s plans are finally coming to fruition as the 49ers remain the team to beat in the NFC, if not the league right now.

The first game played on Sunday was the last of four London games that saw the Houston Texans beings hosted by the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was expecting the Jaguars who are used to the trip to London to perform better than this, but they were never able to get anything going on offence, although it wasn’t until late in the game when Gardner Minshew was trying to make things happen to catch-up that he started turning the ball over repeatedly. It has to be said that the Texans’ offence didn’t look to be running that much better than the Jaguars, but the ability of Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Watson to make spectacular plays was the thing that really separated these two teams and it looks as if the Texans will be competitive to the end of the season, although I’m not sure they are good enough to maximise the all-in moves they have made in managing this roster. It’s not going to hurt them this season, but with all the draft picks they have given away they could have issues going forward. The Jaguars meanwhile, are sliding back in the race for the post-season and the question will be what they do at quarterback now that Nick Foles is near to being healthy, and whether either quarterback can get the team into the playoffs.

The next game I saw was the Minnesota Vikings losing a close game to the Kansas City Chiefs 26-23 at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are know to have a home field advantage and it certainly sounded loud on the TV. This was a close competitive game that I’m sure will be frustrating to Kirk Cousins as he missed a lot of throws and was not at all up to the level of play we had seen in October, although receiver Adam Thielen did have further problems with the hamstring injury he has been dealing with for a number of weeks. That said, the Vikings were held to under one hundred yards rushing at 3.5 yards per carry, which is pretty good for a rush defence that is currently ranked twenty-eighth in league by DVOA. If the plaudits should go anywhere though, it is to Andy Reid, who has kept his team winning despite losing Patrick Mahomes to a dislocated kneecap and starting Matt Moore at quareterback in his stead, and more was coaching high school football a month ago. Moore may only be 1-1 as a starter this season, but he also contributed to a win when he stepped into the game against the Broncos and it gives the Chiefs the luxury of not rushing Mahomes back. They may not look at their best right now, but they could look good come the playoffs, whilst the Vikings also looked competitive, but there will still be questions about Cousins in big games until he wins more of them.

The final game of Sunday was the match-up of the week for most people, and it was certainly a good game but in the end the Baltimore Ravens ran out 37-20 winners as they hosted the now beaten New England Patriots. Ran out is definitely the right turn as the Ravens amassed over two hundred rushing yards where they got up early on the Patriots and never relinquished that lead. The Patriots did steady the ship after going down 17-0 by the start of the second quarter, but even if they slowed the Raven’s rushing attack, they never really contained Lamar Jackson and needed turnovers to get themselves into scoring positions. The Ravens were able to take advantage of the Patriots offensive line to pressure Tom Brady and limit the Patriots’ running game. It is only one loss, and the only one the Patriots have had this season so it would be unwise in the extreme to write off the perennial contenders, but their looks to be less of a gap between the Pats and the other contenders in the league this season. For the Ravens, I see them having no problem beating up on the Bengals defense next week given their problems at the edges of the front seven, and whilst there are tough games against the likes of the 49ers, Texans and Rams, as well as a not easy game in Buffalo in the coming weeks, the Ravens have two more AFC North games and host the Jets so I find it hard to see them not winning the division and the question is whether they can get a bye for the first round of the playoffs.

What I Heard

There are plenty of people who are happy for the Miami Dolphins’ players as they got their first win, but anyone who was surprised by the result had not been paying attention to how the Dolphins had played since putting Ryan Fitzpatrick back in as quarterback. There were some who greeted his signing in the off-season as not being fully aligned with the rebuilding project that was clearly taking place as he might win them too many games, and he has certainly had a positive effect on their offence in recent weeks. However, the real story is that the New York Jets were major players in free-agency and were meant to be kicking on this season and have done anything but. In truth, this is a franchise in a deep funk that has problems in the front office, on the roster, and the coaching staff so it is not surprising that their franchise quarterback looks to be regressing rather than improving this year. The real problem here is that there is no overall plan and the GM who drafted Sam Darnold is no longer there whilst the team have gotten worse since the firing of Todd Bowles. There is plenty of blame to go around and New York is not an easy media market to function in, but you have to wonder who is going to survive this at the end of the season.

I did hear an interesting discussion around the Trent Williams holdout and the reason why Williams is not happy with Washington’s medical staff. His grievance is about a growth he had for a number of years that turned out to be cancerous, and I thought that doctor David Chao did an excellent job of walking you through the medical side of things so if that sounds of interest then I recommend you take a look at this tweet and go from there.

What I Think

I want to take a quick look at a few of the losing teams because despite there being four teams with one win and the winless Bengals, I do think there is a difference between the bad and the truly awful. The first place to start in the separation is the Miami Dolphins, who for years have been suffering in mid-table mediocrity as they were to good to get elite players in the draft but weren’t making the playoffs every year. Losing was the plan this season, not as an aim in of itself, but in rebuilding with young players through next year’s draft and so whilst we don’t know if things will turn around the results this year are not a disaster but a calculated consequence of their method of rebuilding.

The rest of the teams are meant to be competing but there are perhaps extenuating circumstances for some. The results are of course going to be a worry for the Atlanta Falcons, and I don’t know if Dan Quinn is going to keep his job, but there is a lot of talent on this roster, but it is not deep and they have struggled with developing both lines. There is talent and a franchise quarterback so the right person might be able to turn this things around but it will likely require a change of approach by the front office if not new leadership.

The Cincinnati Bengals were pretty much sunk before the season started and my concerns quickly came to fruition. The loss of three starting lineman to injury and or retirement before the season was the precursor to their problems protecting Andy Dalton and I was always concerned about the hire of Jim Turner given his chequered history, but the loss of AJ Green to an ankle injury at the first practice o a high school field that the team should never have practiced on is particularly galling. I can’t help but wonder if a more experienced coach might have stopped the event when he saw the field. The Bengals were once a laughing stock, but Marvin Lewis brought respectability and Mike Brown has invested in the largest coaching staff the Bengals have ever had and renovated the building as they committed to Zac Taylor’s vision. It has done anything but pay off so far, but I’m not sure previous regimes would have turned the offence over to the rookie quarterback who looked promising in training camp to see what they have in him. They could have given more time for Dalton to try to find another team once they decided to bench him, but they probably want Dalton to be a mentor for Ryan Finley and it sure looks like we’ll see him in a different uniform next season.

However, this is where I think the extenuating circumstances end. The Jets as I said earlier were meant to be competing but their dysfunction starts with ownership and how they have approaches solving their problems in recent years and until they find the right GM to establish a culture and commit long term to its implementation they will continue to struggle.

The final team are the Washington no-names, who have an argument to have one of the worst owners in American sports. It’s not like Dan Snyder hasn’t spent money but he has presided over a mess in the front office and I’m not sure what Bruce Allen has achieved as president to earn such loyalty. Snyder bought the team in 1999 and since then Washington have had six winning seasons if you count 2016 8-7-1 and haven’t won a playoff games since 2005. Not only has the on-field performance been bad, but the franchise has gone from being the preeminent part of the Washington sports seen to a team that regularly sees more away fans than home in the stadium.

All of these teams need a lot to go right to turn them round next season, but I really do fear for the Jets and Washington.

I would also like to give a bonus mention to the Cleveland Browns who can’t get out of their own way and I’m not sure the Denver Broncos are truly going to compete until John Elway can find another quarterback.

What I Know

I had a terrible week in the picks competition last week, but what I know is that sometimes you modify your numbers by gut and your right, and sometimes you get led astray but it’s the over-correction in the following week that you have to watch.

If I put as much thought as I do into just picking games, I know that the staffs on these losing teams will be working as hard as they can to improve their team’s situations. There is a lot of work going on behind the scenes, no one is trying to lose and what I hope is that they learn from this situation and improve.

After five years of blogging about the entire league I spend my time wishing success for people – I want things won through skill and clever strategy and for players to be as healthy as they can when they get out.

What I Hope

I really hope that Ryan Finley gives the Bengals a spark and that if the tean are to move on from Andy Dalton, that they can take best player available or even drop back and pick up some extra picks in next year’s draft. After all, as we have had ample proof recently, there really is no such thing as guaranteed franchise quarterback just because they were selected in the first round.

Adjusting to the Adjustment

30 Wednesday Oct 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Andy Dalton, Auden Tate, Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Callahan, Bruce Arians, BW Webb, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Cooper Kupp, Dalvin Cook, Emmanuel Sanders, Freddie Kitchens, Jameis Winston, Kyle Allen, LA Rams, Lamar Jackson, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Nick Bosa, Raheem Mostert, Robert Mays, Ryan Finley, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Tevin Coleman, The Ringer, Trent Williams, Washington, Zac Taylor

There seemed to be more running around than usual to get there, but I definitely don’t take for granted the opportunity to get to see my team play a game at the weekend, even if they have fallen to 0-8 but more of that later as I go through the results in week eight of the NFL and some of the results.

What I Saw

Week eight started with a professional looking if unspectacular win by the Minnesota Vikings over the visiting Washington team. The things that really struck me were that Dalvin Cook might be one of my favourite running backs in the league, and he is so deadly with just a little space thanks to his spread. The Vikings were efficient all game between the twenties but if there is a concern it is that they only scored one touchdown, although the margin of victory could have been bigger if the Vikings had not run clock out in the fourth quarter in a drive that took eight minutes but yielded no score as there was no attempt to pass the ball. I think one of the easy things to forget is that the margins between teams are not that great and whilst Washington are not suddenly a good team under Bill Callahan, they do at least look more competitive and the defence played its part in limiting the Vikings. Even the return of holdout left tackle Trent Williams is unlikely to help turn the team’s fortunes round and the important decisions will be made in the off-season, but until there is an overhaul of the front office I’m not sure when the team might look competent on the fired. Meanwhile the Vikings are improved to 6-2 and look a very dangerous proposition for any team to face.

The game I watched on Sunday was obviously the game I was at, as the Cincinnati Bengals lost 10-24 to the LA Rams hosted at Wembley. The start of the game saw both teams match scoring drives up un to 10-10 but then the quality differences really began to show in the second quarter. It was not that the Bengals couldn’t move the ball, they gained over four hundred yards of offence, but it was often a struggle and couldn’t be accurate enough in the red zone when it really matters. There were a couple of great plays, Auden Tate made a spectacular catch but too often plays were left on the field, including some open ones that Dalton admitted to after the game. The sign that things are different -this year under Zac Taylor, apart from the losing is that Andy Dalton has been benched and so Ryan Finley, the rookie who looked so good in pre-season will get the start against the Baltimore Ravens in week ten. More of that nearer the time, but back to this game, if the offence was a frustrating nearly performance, the defence was bad again. You don’t give up over two hundred yards to one receiver if you are a good team. One of the dirty secrets of watching a game live is that you don’t always get the best view and so I don’t know how Cooper Kupp kept popping up open in the middle of the field, but it kept happening. This week I have limited time for coaching tape and so because I’m a glutton for punishment I’m going to look at Cupp’s catches along with the incredible double-reverse flea-flicker that netted the Rams an impressive touchdown, helped by BW Webb falling down. The only thing I will say is that it seems a bit odd to be using such a cool play against a team that you were pretty obviously better than. The Rams record has stabilised a bit over the last couple of weeks, but there are going to be much tougher tests to come.

Whilst waiting for the morning rush hour to go so I could head home, I watched the Tennessee Titans hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which I had seen on the stadium screen had been competitive and the Titans are one of those teams that I don’t have a feel for yet. It has to be said, I’m not wholly sure about them now as their offensive stats were not that impressive and they benefited in the opening quarter by starting with two short fields thanks to turnovers. It’s not a surprise that Jameis Winston turned the ball over for the Bucs, but a day that saw him throw two interceptions and lose two of his three fumbles wasn’t even his worst in the last two weeks. I can see how the talent that allows him to make the spectacular plays is intriguing, but by now we know what kind of player he is and whilst he may well get another chance somewhere else, it is hard to see him staying with Tampa. For the Titans, whilst Ryan Tannehill is not exactly a future solution, he at least looked to be getting the ball out on time and executing the offence. The Titans looked competitive but given the turnovers and the problems the Bucs have I wonder how they will fare against tougher opposition. They are 4-4 so should be respected, but again I wonder what might happen for them at the quarterback position over the off-season.

The final game I saw this week looked like one of the best matchups of the week, but turned out to be a demonstration that yes the San Francisco 49ers are for real as they hosted the Carolina Panthers with a fifty burger – winning 51-13. There were a couple of performances that leapt off the screen for the 49ers. A strong candidate for rookie defensive MVP, if not league wide is Nick Bosa who finished the game with three sacks and interception he got leaping into the air having been cut by an offensive lineman. If that wasn’t impressive enough, the 49ers offence looked deadly with their chunk plays coming in the running game thanks to impressive speed of Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. You don’t expect a team to run for over two hundred yards in any game, yet alone a Carolina Panthers team who have looked good all year. This kind of thing can happen when you are on the road, and Kyle Allen was not going to go all season without throwing an interception but the Panthers will need to rebound quickly, and we shall have to see if they can do that next week against the Titans. Meanwhile as one of the two remaining unbeaten teams, the 49ers will be hoping that Emmanuel Sanders affect will increase his production as he gets used to the offence but they already have established themselves as the team to beat in the NFC.

What I Heard

One of the interesting bits of commentary I heard was actually from the back end of last week when Robert Mays talking on The Ringer NFL Show was discussing a conversation he had had with a coach regarding young quarterbacks and the important thing to consider was not their strengths but their weaknesses. If a quarterback cannot adjust to counter their weakness they are not going to last in the NFL and you can see some of this already floating around this season’s performances and I’m going to take a quick look at three players to explore this.

There are a number of problems affecting the Cleveland Browns, but part of the problem is that over the off-season enough coaches put in time studying Baker Mayfield whose completion percentage has dropped by 6.2 percent so far this season. Additionally, having played half the number of games that he did last year, Mayfield is twenty-one touchdowns behind his season total of twenty-seven but only two interceptions behind his 2016 total of fourteen, effectively reversing his 2:1 touchdown to interception. Now, it is far too early to say that Mayfield can’t turn it around, particularly with a first time head coach in Freddie Kitchens who seems to be calling a different style of game than what was successful for this pair last season, but if Mayfield can’t adjust to what he’s seeing then he could well be another NFL quarterback who was able to flash but not maintain success.

Meanwhile, an almost classic example of somebody who has never been able to adjust to his weakness is a quarterback I mentioned earlier. Jameis Winston has never learnt to look after the ball, and is this failure more than any other that hampers him. It feels like this could be his final season in Tampa Bay as he is an unrestricted free-agent and I don’t know if the Bucs will franchise him or if they feel that he’s just not going to change as a player and there are plenty of people who will argue that if Bruce Arians can’t turn him around then who will.

Finally, we have Lamar Jackson who turned the Baltimore Ravens season around last year and who has continued that into this year with the Ravens currently standing 5-2 at the top of the AFC North. No one is saying that Jackson is suddenly picking apart teams with surgical passes, but his completion percentage is currently up by 5.1% and he’s has thrown five more touchdowns in his seven starts this season than he did in his seven starts last season. More importantly, there appears to be no sophomore slump so whilst we can’t pretend that he won’t be found out or that he will definitely adjust when he’s astonishing athletic ability begins to fade, he passed the tests asked of him so far and it looks like the Ravens are set at quarterback for a while yet.

What I Think

As I mention earlier, the Bengals have announced that for the first time in his nine year career Andy Dalton is missing a game that is not due to injury as he has been benched for rookie Ryan Finley. This does make sense given that the Bengals find themselves at 0-8 and need to find out what they have ahead of next season. Interestingly, despite many commentators suggesting otherwise, the Bengals were not sellers ahead of the trade deadline and they will be hoping that with a good off-season they can turn things round if Finley doesn’t give them a start. He certainly looked good in pre-season but you can’t trust that so it makes total sense to give him half a season to see what he can do. The timing for Dalton makes less sense as the announcement being so close to the trade deadline precluded any trade options for him and he will have to spend the rest of the season in limbo with a year left on his contract but no guaranteed money next year.

What I Know

To my eyes, the game between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens looks to be the marque game of week ten and for a week I don’t have to worry about the Bengals losing another one.

What I Hope

The I’m always hoping for is success for teams and players and the difference between them being one reaching a higher peak so I’m hoping the Browns turn it round, that someone else in the AFC joins the six teams with a winning record, and that we get exciting games, starting with tomorrow’s contest between the 49ers and the Cardinals – stranger things have happened!