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2020 Week One Picks

13 Sunday Sep 2020

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Well, I didn’t exactly start the picks competition how I wanted to on Thursday, but I don’t feel bad about the process of my pick and I think it is going to take some time to dial in given the absence of pre-season games to work from. We also don’t know how the absence of crowds will affect home field advantage so I might play some hunches a little more at the start of the year, but it is a long season.

I am going to try to break up this picks column in a new way this season to take some of the leg work out of the post and so hopefully get into coaching tape more regularly, assuming that life settles down. The blog still feels weird without trivia because of why I have had to move things round and I think that sense of loss is going to be there for a while, but it will also be nice to get back into something like our normal in-season routine.

At this stage, with no pre-season almost every game is intriguing because we have even less idea of how teams really are so let’s get down to some picks.

Early Games:

My favourite of the early contests to watch is probably the Packers at the Vikings as that is a big divisional game and I want to see how the Vikings re-tooled defence looks and if there is any progression in the Packers offence. The consensus number for this game has the Vikings at -2.5 that might lead you to take the Packers, but I have also seen a projection higher than the -3.5 the Vikings are laying and with them  at home I’m leaning to the Vikings, who have taken on an increased importance to me this season.

The other contests that catch the eye in this time slot are the Seahawks taking on the Falcons in Atlanta as the Falcons will be looking to pick up from their strong end to last season and the Seahawks are always competitive under Pete Carroll. I think everyone will be curious to see how Cam Newton looks as the Patriots host the Dolphins, but given this is a divisional game and the Pats lost more players to Covid-19 sit outs than any other team I think this one will be closer than seven. I could be wrong, but I have a lot of Brian Flores even though this is based on only one season as a head coach.

Finally, the Ravens are heavy favourites hosting the Browns, but with Kevin Stefanski taking over the Browns I think the offence could take a big step forward depending on how pre-season has gone. Certainly Baker Mayfield needs to regain some confidence as a starting QB in his third season, but with some improvement and a healthy Odell Beckham as well as Myles Garrett returning to the defence I like the Browns to keep this game closer than nine points. However, I do think the Ravens are going to be strong contenders this season as they look to not just get back to the play-offs, but win and go deep to better reflect their regular season form.

Other things of interest:

  • How Philip Rivers looks for the Colts and what state the Jaguars are in on the field. They will certainly be watching closely to see if Gardner Minshew is a franchise quarterback.
  • Can Josh Allen take a step forward for the Bills and what effect the addition of Stefon Digs will have on Allen’s passing. I really don’t know what to expect from the Jets, although they are another franchise trying to confirm what they have in their quarterback.
  • How will the Lions look with Matthew Stafford back from injury and will the Lions look more likely to be competitive division. I also wonder how Mitchell Trubisky will look and version of the Bears from the last two seasons will show up.
  • How will the reformed Panthers look as they host a Raiders side looking to get a winning season in Jon Gruden’s third season. More importantly for, can their defence improve on it’s thirty-first ranking by DVOA of the last two season.
  • What will the Washington Football Team look on the field after such a turbulent off-season as they host an Eagles side who will be hoping that they can’t be as injured as last season and that quarterback Carson Wentz not only plays a full season for a second year in a row but has the receivers to let them take the next step.

Seahawks @ Falcons (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Jets @ Bills (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Lions (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Browns @ Ravens (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Packers @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Raiders @ Panthers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Late Games:

There are three intriguing games in the late slot, but the pick of them has to be the Buccaneers travelling to the Saints where the Bucs will be hoping that with Tom Brady the offence will be productive and the defence pays to a similar level as they did last season. I think that Brady will help the Bucs take a step forward, but there have been signs of slippage and as good as his skills players look, the Saints have been all in for three seasons already and have one of the deepest rosters in the league. I could be very wrong, and this will definitely be one of the games I watch this week, but like the Saints’ continuity to win out in this one.

Of course, I am excited to see Josh Burrow to take the field, but I am realistic about what I can expect from the Bengals this season and so I’m looking for progress not the play-offs. The Chargers have already lost a huge impact player from their defence in Derwin James and getting this number of points at home I am leaning to the Bengals keeping the game to within four, if not winning the game if everything breaks right for them.

Finally, a divisional game between the Cardinals and 49ers is interesting with DeAndre Hopkins taking the field with Kyler Murray and we shall have to see if in his second year with the Cardinals whether head coach Kliff Kingsbury can lead them to a better record of 5-11. The 49ers will prove a tough test as they should be competitive again this season and I wonder how the offence will look given their injuries at receivers, which is why I have picked the Cardinals to keep the game closer than eight, but I could easily see me getting this one wrong.

Chargers @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Buccaneers @ Saints (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cardinals @ 49ers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

This could be a spectacular game as the LA Rams open their new stadium to a Cowboys team under their new coach Mike McCarthy. I think this has the potential to be an explosive game, and certainly all eyes will be on if Sean McVay can keep the Rams competitive after the overhaul of their roster and the change in defensive coordinator. I am really curious about how the Cowboys will look under McCarthy, and expect them to do well this season, but I’m getting an extra half point for the Rams at home than the consensus line and I’ve seen a projection of an even closer score so I’m going to grab the points.

Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Monday Night Football:

Week one finishes with a pair of Monday night football games, but I am not sure how competitive they will be.

The Giants under new head coach Joe Judge are at the beginning of a big rebuild project and whilst I am curious to see how they look, I am looking for progress rather than a spectacular turn around. The Steelers had the third ranked defence by DVOA last season and a fit again Ben Roethlisberger has been getting good reviews in camp. It was an impressive feat for the Steelers to go 8-8 with the combination of Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph at quarterback and I expect the Steelers to be truly competitive this season with Roethlisberger back behind center.

The contest between the Broncos and Titans looks less enticing with Von Miller likely out for the season with his ankle injury. The Broncos’ franchise player is a big loss for the defence, and I can’t help but think that the Broncos will be happy if they can establish Drew Lock as their franchine quarterback. This line looks to have been set before the Miller injury news as the consensus has the Broncos getting three points. I worry about the home field advantage that the Broncos will retain as their stadium is at high altitude and this is particularly likely to be a problem with the lack of pre-season games to help with conditioning. However, the Titans have always be competitive under Mike Vrabel and I like getting points when I think the Titans are the better team and only have to win by a field goal to cover. I might regret this, but then that is my usual refrain making picks.

Steelers @ Giants (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Titans @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Well, that’s it for week one. I have no idea how these picks will go, but I’m excited to see more football and I’m already eyeing up what I’m going to be watching on coaching tape next week.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

AFC and NFC East Preview

31 Monday Aug 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Pre-Season

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Despite having a longer run up to the start of their season than the rest of the major four American sports did to restarting their seasons, it feels like the NFL are approaching the 2020 season with a higher degree of improvisation and as a result there are no pre-season games.

This means that as far as I know the season opener will be the first time the NFL plays a game with the as yet untested protocols. Certainly, this is the case for two teams playing each other and only time will tell how that goes.

The inaugural draft of The Wrong Football Dynasty NFL fantasy league takes place this week, and we are under two weeks away from the start of the season so I thought it was time to roll through the divisions to see what I thought about the teams.

I always want to see how a team does rather than speculate too much, and I think that is going to be even more true for the upcoming season, for which we have nothing but training camp reports to work with so there is a lot of speculation and little we know for certain. In fact, I think it’s distinctly possible that things will move faster than a website can keep up with, but let’s start with the two East divisions and see what I can say.

AFC East

New England Patriots

Let’s start how we mean to go on, with a Patriots team who lost an all-time great quarterback, and so were already in flux before half a dozen players opted out of the season due to Covid-19. I can’t find fault with any player deciding to sit out, but with a shortened offseason, a retooled defence, and a Brady-less offence for the first time since his ACL tear in 2008 things are going to be very different for the Pats this season. I would say with their coaching staff they should be fine, but the last time Dante Scarnecchia retired the Pats offensive line really struggled. The pickup of Cam Newton was a canny stroke and I really hope he can get back to his best, but whilst I expect the Pats to compete, this is the first year in a while where you can’t pencil them in for the playoffs, although it would hardly be a surprise if they do make it.

Buffalo Bills

After a seventeen year wait, the Bills have gone to the playoffs in two out of the last three seasons under head coach Sean McDermott and they are hoping that their off-season trade for receiver Stefon Diggs will catapult them to the next level. The aim surely has to be to win a playoff game this season, but Diggs can’t catapult the offence to more closely match the defence’s top ten ranking by DVOA on his own. A lot rests on if quarterback Josh Allen can take another step forward in his third year. It feels like the Bills front office have done an excellent job of building around the young quarterback and he doesn’t have to become elite for the Bills to be a dangerous team, but their ceiling is going to be set by his performance. Still, they look to be the other contender for the AFC East title and will be looking for more than that.

New York Jets

I have very little idea what to make of the Jets coming into this season. They had a top ten defence by DVOA last season, but traded away their All-Pro safety Jamal Adams to the Seahawks, their special teams were top five by DVOA, but their offence was ranked thirty-first by DVOA and second year quarterback Sam Darnold missed games with mono. More importantly there seems to be very little stability in their front office and with all the caveats that he’s likely forgotten more about football than I’ll ever know, Adam Gase does not inspire confidence and I suspect he is a better co-ordinator than head coach. Even after having said all of this, they still went 7-9 last year so we can’t write them off completely, but I definitely have them pegged for a similar or worse record this season. As ever I would love to be proved wrong, although I’m sure Dan would disagree.

Miami Dolphins

I am pretty certain I’m going to be singing the Dolphins’ infuriatingly catchy fight song on the podcast a time or two this season as despite their 5-11 2019 season, things are definitely on the up for the ‘phins. For starters, they were tanking and so had no business winning five games, yet they still got to draft quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who for many fans was the off-season target all along. More importantly, Brian Flores is probably the first Bill Belichick assistant who truly convinced in their first season as a head coach. They had a raft of draft picks in April and I think the arrow is definitely pointing up for this team. They might not win that many more games this year given the shortened pre-season, but I believe Flores will make them competitive no matter how many games Tagovailoa does or does not start and I feel as confident as I ever remember since I started this site about the Dolphins going forward. I’m sorry if that’s a jinx Dan.

Now it’s time to jump conferences and look at the NFC East

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

The 2019 season was a really odd one for the Eagles with a lot of people, including myself, thinking that they had one of the deepest rosters in the league, but they were ravaged by injury, particularly at receiver and corner and so just getting to the play-offs was in truth something of an achievement. They seemed to put a high priority on speed in the draft, but it is a slightly odd quirk for Carson Wentz is that in his four season in Philadelphia the Eagles have gone to the play-offs the last three season, won a Super Bowl yet his play-off record is 0-1. I think this is just a quirk of some bad injury luck, but I’m sure Wentz would like to get at least one win and put this behind him before the passionate Philadelphia fans start to question their franchise quarterback. I like the Eagles chances of doing just that, but we shall have to see.

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys were a very good team on offence last season, finishing second in the league in offensive DVOA, but a middling defence and poor special teams when combined with some less than inventive coaching led to the end of the Jason Garrett era in Dallas. The Cowboys come into this season with the same offensive coordinator, operating the offence under new had coach Mike McCarthy who made headlines by running a staff without a team last season and professing that he’s been studying analytics. We can’t know if such an approach will survive contact with the season, particularly given McCarthy’s reputation for conservative play calling at the end of his tenure in Green Bay, but it will be fascinating to watch. I don’t understand why they haven’t committed to Dak Prescott yet and signed him to a long term contract, but Prescott will be hoping to prove that it was a mistake not to get him signed up and the addition of rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb gives them a potentially formidable receiving group. The Cowboys really weren’t that far away from winning this division last season and I expect them to compete with the Eagles all the way for the division.

New York Giants

Last season was a mess for the Giants, who went 4-12 with very few positives on either side of the ball. The hire of thirty-eight-year-old Patriots’ special teams coordinator Joe Judge was definitely not a big name hire. I like the idea of hiring a special teams coach who is used to interacting with the whole roster, but it has to be viewed as a gamble with quarterback Daniel Jones going into his second year. The young quarterback has not shone early and the Giants are a team that looks to be a multi-season rebuilding project that they are entrusting to a young first time head coach. The Giants have some good skills players, and in Saquon Barkley a truly special running back, but I’m not sure I trust Dave Gettleman’s judgment of draft value in terms of who he picks where, though he clearly has an eye for talent. I simply don’t know enough about Judge as a coach to have strong feelings about this team, but I would be surprised if they did more than show progress. However, at this point in their team building, that would still be a positive step.

Washington Football Team

It’s hard to know where to start with Washington. It might be easier to go through what hasn’t happened to them. The 2019 season was a disaster on the field and off, leading to the hire of Ron Rivera as their new head coach, and loss of long-time president Bruce Allen. So far this off-season we’ve had the horrible revelations of the climate of sexual harassment around the team. The franchise has finally been forced into addressing their name, but only after major sponsors threated Dan Snyder with pulling out of contracts, and their owner has now also had allegations related to sexual harassment levelled against him. The turmoil does not end there as the conduct of Snyder over the years has led to several minority-owners of the team looking to sell their stakes, and Rivera who has so much on his plate already this off-season has been diagnosed with cancer. The one truly positive on-field news story has been the remarkable return to practise of Alex Smith from his gruesome 2018 leg injury, that after complications and infections nearly cost him the leg. As big a feel-good bit of new as Smith’s return to practise is, it’s hard to see him being anything other than a valued veteran voice in the quarterback room unless Dwayne Haskins continues to struggle in his second year and Kyle Allen (who has followed Rivera from Carolina) can’t get the job done either. The addition of first round draft pick Chase Young should really help this team’s pass-rush, but with so much change it is hard to see this team excelling this season, but Washington are another football team for whom forward progress would be a genuine achievement considering the position they are starting from.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Wildcard Saturday

04 Saturday Jan 2020

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The playoffs start today, and unusually both AFC teams are playing today with the NFC taking over the Sunday schedule so let’s take a look at the two AFC matchups.

Buffalo Bills (5th) @ Houston Texans (6th)

The Texans won out in the AFC South and are rewarded by getting to host the Buffalo Bills. The headline news about the Texans is the return of JJ Watt from a pectoral injury and he has been cleared to play but this is much earlier than is typical for such an injury so I don’t know how effective Watt will be. Of more importance to the Texans in recent weeks is whether Will Fuller will play as the often injured this season receiver seems to have a dramatic effect on the offence through his ability to stretch the field. He was rested last week but it is looking doubtful that can play, and even if the answer at the start of the game is yes the question is whether he can give the Texans what they need and he has already aggravated an injury and had to come out the game once this season as well as missing five others. Interestingly, the Texans are ranked six places lower overall by DVOA than the Bills and not only are the worst ranked of the playoff teams by DVOA, but are ranked below seven teams who failed to make the playoffs. Now two of those teams are special cases as only this year’s iteration of the Cowboys could manage to rank top ten statistically (6th overall by DVOA) and still manage to miss the playoffs with their 8-8 record, whilst the Rams in a down year still won nine games despite having to play the 49ers and Seahawks twice thanks to being in the fearsomely competitive NFC West. The Bills also ranked below the Rams and Cowboys but unlike the Texans, they did not rank behind any other team who failed to make the playoffs.

The Bills has a somewhat quiet season in terms of press coverage despite never coming close to a losing record and finishing the regular season 10-6. They are not a flashy team and have their limitations on offence. In his second year Josh Allen has improved, but he is still far from an elite quarterback but the Bills have done enough to win thanks to their defence, which ranks sixth in the league by DVOA and hasn’t allowed the opposition to score more than seventeen points in the last four weeks. This looks like it should be a really competitive game and I don’t have a clear winner in this one, but I just get the feeling that between the Texans being at home and Deshuan Watson’s ability to conjure something out nothing, that the Texans will edge this one out. That said I love the direction the Bills are heading in, with a front office and coach working in lock step over the last three years, and even if they don’t manage to get their first playoff win since 1995 today, it feels like it is coming.

Tennessee Titans (6th) @ New England Patriots (3rd)

The Patriots won the AFC East for the eleventh year straight, but have not looked quite the same team on offence, with people whispering with a little more evidence this time that Tom Brady is too old and a week seventeen loss to the Dolphins set alarm bells ringing amongst their faithful fans. The Patriots have the number one defence in the league, but have neither been able to get the passing game going whenever they want nor had the power running game they were able to utilise to such effect last season. Between the retirement of Robert Gronkowski and the play of Tom Brady dipping just enough, people are wondering if the end of an era is finally coming.

Part of the reason for this worry is their opponent, the Tennessee Titans who after a rough start to the season switched to Ryan Tannehill as their starting quarterback and from then went on a 7-3 run that took them to the playoffs. They also enter this game with the rushing champion of the league in Derrick Henry who managed to average over five yards a carry, whilst rookie receiver AJ Brown had a breakout season and seems to have forged a real bond with Tannehill.

This game should be fascinating, although the often-bad January weather looks to be heading into New England. The Titans have a real chance in this game, but it feels like Patriots probably have enough to win this at home, particularly as I am sure that Belichick and his staff with be throwing every trick they have at this game. It is a testament to their history that no one is comfortable writing them off, but this could very well be an end of era, and if the Patriots do win they are going to really struggle against either the Ravens or the Chiefs.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

On the Road Again

11 Wednesday Dec 2019

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With week fourteen in the books and me away working, I am going to give you another on the road edition that I would say will live up to the week’s action, but the game of the week was probably the game of the season and so I’m not sure anything will match up to it. Intrigued? I’ll get to the specifics in a minute.

What I Saw

The week started with a game that has had me kicking myself ever since as the Dallas Cowboys rolled into Chicago with their current brand of dysfunction and trebled down on their last two losses to the Vikings and Lions by losing to the Bears. The Cowboys actually started the game well, marching down the field on their opening possession and scoring a touchdown to take an early lead, but they surrendered this lead in the second quarter and were never able to get level again. Despite slightly out-gaining the Bears and winning the turnover battle the Cowboys fell to 6-7 but are still not out of the battle for the NFC East. I’m not sure you would exactly say that Mitchel Trubisky has turned things around, but he’s playing better and the Bears have found a better balance in the rushing attack with David Montgomery getting more carries and Trubisky using his running skills. It’s probably too late for them to get a wildcard berth given the strength of the NFC race which could see a team from the NFC hosting a wild card team with a better record, but the Bears are heading in the directio again. If you’re wondering why I’m kicking myself about this game, guess which team I backed in the picks competition…

I’ll start the Sunday games with the Cincinnati Bengals frustrating loss against the Cleveland Browns where the Bengals out-gained the Browns by one hundred and twenty yards, and up to half time looked okay on defence. However, a chronic problem in the red-zone and the Browns remembering they have two of the better running backs in the league saw a 13-14 half time deficit grow to a 19-27 defeat. There is still too much noise surrounding the Browns and both teams will feature in the what I heard segment so I’ll move on to the two match-ups I was really excited about going into the weekend.

I was really looking forward to seeing the Baltimore Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills and in particular how the Bills defence did against the Ravens’ high-flying offence. The quick answer is that for the most part the Bills did well, partly aided by an injury to Ravens tight-end Mark Andrews but they could only contained the Ravens. This is more than many have done this season, but it quickly became apparent that the problem was that the Bills’ offence couldn’t keep up as the Ravens defence caused Josh Allen too many problems. The Bills did manage a later sure after three field goals all game, but the late touchdown with two point conversion that pulled them to within seven was as close as they could get. The Bills are a good team with a tough run of games coming but still have a sound shot at a wildcard spot, but they are a step down from the elite of the AFC.  The Ravens very much look to be the elite of the AFC right now.

This is probably a bad time to admit defeat, but as glorious as I think words are, I’m not sure they can do justice to the final game I watched this week. Hidden away in the early games was the San Francisco 49ers trip to face the New Orleans Saints and we ended up with a rip roaring 48-46 win for the 49ers to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Ravens. As can be seen from the score, despite featuring the second and fourth ranked defences by DVOA going into this weekend, this was very much an offensive slug fest with two of the league’s best game callers operating at something like the height of their powers. The Saints were boosted early by the speed of Deonte Harris in the returns game, but that wasn’t really needed as Drew Brees put in a vintage performance that saw him pass for five touchdowns and nearly three-hundred and fifty yards, with Brees throwing the deep ball as well as I have seen for a while. The 49ers were able to keep up thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo have a great game passing the ball, helped by how Emmanuel Sanders had integrated into the offence since his acquisition by trade and special mention should go to George Kittle who looked more like himself in the passing game and had one of the plays of the season, carry multiple Saints players down the field with one of them holding onto his face mark for at least five yards. It’s going to be a play that turns up in all the end of season montages, particularly as it was on a fourth and two play that kept the 49ers final drive alive. Either team could have won this game, and I would love for there to be a repeat in the playoffs, where both these teams are clearly headed,

What I Heard

There have been several topics running through the media the last couple of days. There were yet more blown calls and the most maddening thing about the new pass interference review system is the seemingly arbitrary way they are applied. Then again we had another game where the refs blew the whistle early and denied a potential touchdown scoring opportunity. I don’t entirely blame the refs as the game is fiendishly hard to officiate thanks to the complicated rule book, but when the wrong penalty yardage is being called then there needs to be a rethink and clearly the NFL agree as they announced a top-down review will take place in the off-season. Let’s see what that bring…

In the continuation of familiar themes we also have a new accusation of if not cheating, then dubious behavior by the New England Patriots. Thanks to their history most people will have made up their minds quickly when it was announced that a Patriots film crew had filmed the Bengals side-line this weekend. The explanation was that this was a TV crew making a documentary about working as a scout for the Patriots, who had permission from the Browns to be there. To be honest, I’m not inclined to disbelieve the explanation and I can’t find myself able to get worked up about it. This could be as I don’t expect the Bengals to have that much success against the Patriots this week, but it feels like after the previous instances people are desperate to leap on anything and it just doesn’t seem like that big a deal.

What I Think

There was a bit of a mess surrounding the Browns again this week as Baker Mayfield spoke about Odell Beckham’s medical situation, seemingly announcing that his receiver’s sports hernia problem had been mishandled by the Brown’s medical team. Now Mayfield clarified later and I don’t think it is a huge deal, but for a player who had not taken the next step this season and important off-season is looming.

I can’t say I have particularly warmed to Mayfield’s brash style, but as much as anything I wonder about who is helping him to lead and find his way. There is no history of success at the Browns, and so how is Mayfield meant to learn how to lead a professional team given the surrounding environment? I don’t know what will happen in the off-season, but unless there is some kind of change I’m not sure if he will be able to turn things around by himself going into next season.

What I Hope

I really enjoyed the 49ers at Saints game so I hope we get more played with that kind of execution, although I would be just as happy (if not more so) to watch defensive excellence.

On the Home Straight

04 Wednesday Dec 2019

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There is now only a quarter of the regular season left and week thirteen saw the Bengals win their first game, the Panthers part with one of the longest tenured coaches in the league, and Jason Garrett looks to be heading the same way at the end of the season after the Cowboys loss on Thanksgiving so let’s take a look at a busy week in the NFL.

What I Saw

The first Thanksgiving game saw the Chicago Bears take on a struggling Detroit Lions team who were down to their third starting quarterback, but after a successful first defensive drive – David Blough completed a deep pass to Kenny Galloday for a seventy-five yard touchdown and for most of the game the Lions were able stay ahead or level with he Bears but ultimately the Lions couldn’t hold on and the Bears won 24-20. Things are still not great for the Bears but this was a decent performance whilst the Lions have lost a fifth straight as things are just not working, and not getting pressure on Mitch Trubisky was enough for him to have a three hundred yards passing day, a rare thing for the Bears this year.

Next up the Buffalo Bills rolled into Dallas and ground out a win against the Cowboys to take themselves to 9-3, which gives them a two-game lead against any other second placed team in the AFC. The Bills took the chance to demonstrate the tough defence and steady progress of their second-year quarterback Josh Allen on the national stage. The Cowboys meanwhile continue to confound, and whilst this is not the first time there has been talk about Jason Garrett losing his job it definitely feels like the problems with the Cowboys have become too much for Jerry Jones.

The final Thanksgiving game was a strange contest that saw the New Orleans Saints out-gained by the Atlanta Falcons but ran out winners thanks to some steady kicking and the Falcons three turnovers. The Falcons mini-recovery was not sustainable whilst the Saints are still looking very competitive in what is a loaded NFC. The fact that the Saints managed to get to 10-2 without Drew Brees for five games is a demonstration of how good their coaching staff is and should not be forgotten amongst the other outstanding performances this season.

The first Sunday game I’m going to write about was a match-up of another pair of outstanding 2019 teams as the San Francisco 49ers traveled right across the country and played an early game against the Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers defence were helped by the rain and managed to contain the Ravens all game but lost to a last second Justiun Tucker forty-nine yard field goal from one of the best kickers to play the game. It’s almost unfair for a team who has one of the most explosive offences in the league to have such a good kicker, but the 49ers looked to be every bit as good in this game and I think people would be very happy to see this match-up again in a Super Bowl.

The other Sunday game I watched was the Cincinnati Bengals proving me wrong on Sunday and comfortably beating the New York Jets. The Bengals defence seems to have come on in the last few weeks whilst the injuries have caught up with the Jets who struggled to move the ball all game whilst the Bengals got lots of pressure and Carlos Dunlap racked up three sacks. On offence, Andy Dalton threw for two touchdowns to break the franchise record for passing touchdowns on his return to the starting line-up and looked solid in distributing the ball getting help from some impressive catches. I’m really pleased for the Bengals as no one wants to be another team to go winless and what I liked was the talk about not being satisfied but trying to build good habits and momentum for next season. We shall have to see. As for the Jets, they really struggled and I’m really not sure what they will do in the off-season given the disappointment this season has been given the investment over the summer.

The final game of the week was a great contest between the Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks where the Seahawks were able to withstand a late game comeback from the Vikings a finish the game 37-30 winners. There will be a lot of talk about Kirk Cousins’ 0-8 Monday night record and I certainly had more faith in Russell Wilson but the injury to Dalvin Cook and a couple of drops by the normally reliable Stefon Diggs didn’t help Cousins. Given the quality of the Vikings’ defence you would expect to score thirty points and win a game but they were competitive and I would imagine they feel like they could still win against any team going forward. The Vikings fell a game behind the Green Bay Packers at the top of the NFC North, but with three divisional games their fate is very much in their own hands. As for the Seahawks, they have the same number of wins as the 49ers in the NFC West and are looking to kick on into the playoffs and see just how far they can get.

What I Heard

There has been plenty of talk about the Cowboys as there always is, but Jason Garrett is not the only coach to be under scrutiny. The LA Chargers found another way to lose a close game, this time not ensuring their opponents had to return a kick off and eat up clock so there was just time for the Denver Broncos to try a deep pass that drew a pass interference penalty and Brandon McManus to hit a fifty-three yard field goal in the thin Denver air to clinch the game.

There had already been speculation around Ron Rivera given the Panthers current losing streak so when the Panthers lost to Washington this Sunday, new owner David Tepper decided he wanted to get an early start on finding a successor and fired Rivera on Tuesday. The two time NFL Coach of the Year who took the Panthers to a Super Bowl stated his desire to get straight back into coaching today and it would not surprise me at all to see him in charge of a different team next season.

What I Think

I have gone through multiple games this week and still the headlines come. The New England Patriots are having problems in the passing game and weren’t helped by an illness running through the team that saw them take two planes to Houston, but segregating the ill players didn’t help them stay in the game against the Texans. I don’t know if the problems the Patriots have are solvable, but I don’t think anyone doubts that if there is a solution, the combination of the coaches and Brady will find it. However, with the Ravens marching on and the Chiefs looking like they are coming into form at the right time it could be a new team representing the AFC after a hat-trick of appearances from the Patriots.

There looks to several strong teams at the top of both conferences and if everyone can stay healthy in the last month we could have an exceptionally good series of playoff games. I don’t want to wish away the season, and there’s plenty of interesting match-ups to come but it does feel like we have a bumper crop of teams with realistic shots at playoff success.

What I Know

There are only four games left and whilst many teams are gearing up for a playoff run, there are also a lot of teams who will be looking at players at the bottom of the roster as they try to evaluate who they think will be the cornerstone of turning things round next season. It seems crazy to be thinking about that already, but this is the reality of the NFL.

What I Hope

I really do hope that the teams at the top of the divisions stay healthy so the outcomes are determined on the field and not in the training room.

The Other Quarterbacks

26 Thursday Sep 2019

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It would appear that a quicker process was what was needed to improve my picks in week three, but sadly there was no respite for Dan or I in terms of our teams doing anything other than losing. Still, here we go with my trip through the NFL this week.

What I Saw

Week three started with a one-sided Thursday night game that never quite took off as the Jacksonville Jaguars made a mockery of my pick by grinding out a 20-7 win over the Tennessee Titans. This was a game dominated by penalties and the Jaguars pass rush that sacked Marcus Mariota a massive nine times. The Titans have a real problem as they are good enough to compete across the roster bar quarterback with Mariota holding onto the ball and reluctant to throw the ball deep. This competitiveness will make it difficult for the team to replace Mariota if the team do decide to move on and I wonder at what point we might see Ryan Tannehill get a start if things don’t improve for the Titans offence. Meanwhile, the confident Gardiner Minshew II (I do enjoy that his father’s name is not Gardiner Minshew – he was just creative when registering his son’s name) did enough in his first start to get the Jaguars their first win of the season. The strange thing was the Jaguars defence finally looked really good this week yet it seems as if they are still likely to lose arguably their best player in Jalen Ramsey. In a division that is wide open it would be a curious move indeed to trade him, as was playing him in this game if you intend to trade him and having reported sick on Monday he is on the injury list for his lower back. I still do not trust this team but if their defence can play like this a little more often and Minshew can keep the offence ticking over when the opponent’s defence has time and film to game plan for him fully then the Jaguars could climb back into contention in the division.

The next game I watched was the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Arrowhead stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, but whilst the Ravens were able to generate over four hundred and fifty yards of offence they were not able to move the ball consistently enough to beat the Chiefs in their home opener falling to a 28-33 loss. The score is actually closer than it was for a lot of game even if the Ravens did get the first touchdown of the contest but Patrick Mahomes had another spectacular second quarter as the Chiefs scored twenty-three points that included two spectacular catches from the young Cheifs’ receivers. First Demarcus Robinson pulled in a lovely one-handed catch and then Mecole Hardman took advantage of a broken coverage to score on an eighty-three yard play that put the Chiefs 20-6 up. There was plenty of production from the Ravens offence, which managed over two hundred rushing yards as part of their day and several splash plays of their own including a several moments of rushing brilliance from Lamar Jackson. However, too many drives stalled and they cost themselves three points from failed two-point conversions, which is an interesting tactical choice when you have one of the most reliable kickers in the league. It was clearly a deliberate tactic and I don’t know the relative percentage of two-point tries versus extra points to do the maths, but if the Ravens had made all of them that would turn a five point deficit into a one point win so I can see what they were trying to do.

I’m not sure I want to write about the Cincinnati Bengals, but I’ll try as they travelled to Buffalo and suffered their third loss of the season falling 21-17 having taken a three point lead with under five minutes to go. However, whilst the record is lousy, the Bengals aren’t all that bad but maddeningly inconsistent. If they could put more consistent good play across four quarters I can see how they could be good – particularly as the pass rush is really good but the run game has been inconsistent ad I wonder where the team will be when they visit London at the end of October. Meanwhile, the Bills continue to be a tough team to face thanks to a stingy defence and an offence that seems to be doing enough. In his second year quarterback Josh Allen is finding a way to compete and the combination of him, TJ Yeldon and the ever reliable Frank Gore dominated a running game that generated one hundred and seventy-five yard. I don’t know if they can beat the visiting Patriots next week, but I suspect it will be a competitive game.

The final game of the week that I watched was the LA Rams travelling to Cleveland to beat the now 1-2 Browns: 20–13. For all the talk of offensive prowess about both teams in the off-season, this was a grind it out defensive contest that seemed to pit the Rams pass rush against the Browns generating three interceptions. The Browns got pressure of their own but it seemed that Jared Goff was the quarterback more prepared to take risks and paid the price in interceptions. However, he did enough to put twenty points on the board even with a missed field-goal, whilst the Browns offensive line seemed to scupper the Brown’s ability to move the ball consistently. The Browns looked good both running the ball with Nick Chubb and passing the ball when Baker Mayfield had time, but were not able to sustain drives regularly enough thanks to multiple Rams’ defenders getting into the backfield and harassing Mayfield. It’s no surprise that Aaron Donald played really well in this game, but the combination of him with Dante Fowler and Clay Mathews really worked for the Rams when rushing the passer with Mathews in particularly looking as good as he has done for several seasons. The saving grace for the Browns is that they have yet to play a divisional opponent but next week they travel to face the Ravens who are the early favourites to win the division. Even starting 1-3 wouldn’t necessarily scupper the Browns chances of making the playoffs given the state of the AFC North so far this season but this first AFC North game against the Raven is now massively important and the Browns have not convinced so far.

What I Heard & What I Think

I’m combining two section this week thanks to the scope of quarterback stories this week, but I’ll try to get back to my normal subjects next week.

There has been a lot of discussion about quarterback this week, which is understandable given that even discounting the Colts’ enforced change in quarterback we now have seven teams starting a different player than was planned at the start of the season. What’s more several teams got wins off the back of their new starter at quarterback. I have already mentioned Gardiner Minshew II who has been getting lots of headlines thanks to the various urban legends that are doing the rounds but one of the other performances that leapt out was by Kyle Allen who led the Panthers to their first win of the season. I don’t think this will necessarily create a quarterback controversy unless Cam Newton cannot get back to the level of performance he has in previous years, but what it does do if Allen can maintain this level of performance then the Panthers can afford to wait unit Newton is fully healthy before returning to the game. This is why whilst no team can afford to have two quality starters on the roster, a good veteran or a promising young player can turn around or rescue a season if they only need to do it for a short stretch.

For instance, the investment the Saints put into making Teddy Bridgewater one of the highest paid backups paid off when he stepped up and won on the road in Seattle. He didn’t look great, but he kept the Saints moving and got them a good win.

However, the other type of quarterback we saw step up was the high pick rookie. A lot of the headlines have gone to Daniel Jones because he plays for the New York Giants but Jones also got a win in his first start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game I’ll be looking at for this week’s Amateur Adventures in Film. It seems the days of a high round rookie quarterback sitting for an entire year are pretty much gone as even Patrick Mahomes got to start week seventeen of his rookie year. Sooner or later a highly drafted player is going to start. I suspect the next one will be in Washington but at what point I don’t know.

What I Know

That someone at the bottom of the AFC North should get their first win of the season next Monday, although it would be just my luck if the teams managed a second tie of the season.

What I Hope

That the Bengals don’t forget themselves against the Steelers and give a good account of themselves in front of the nation on Monday night.

It’s going to be a long wait…

Quarterbacks: The Injured and The Young

18 Wednesday Sep 2019

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One of the things that makes the NFL such a spectacle week to week is that each team only plays sixteen games so every one matters and a teams prospects can change really quickly as several teams saw this weekend. Even a team with the roster depth of the Philadelphia Eagles can get undermined if too many injuries cluster around the same position, but I’ll cover that when I write up their game in the section, so let’s get started.

What I Saw

The week two Thursday night game saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers break my Thursday night line picking rule and win on the road against a Carolina Panthers team who have now fallen to 0-2. It was not a great spectacle that even started off looking strange as thanks to the weather the broadcasters only had two camera angles available and further lightening problems saw the game paused until it cleared. Neither team really shone, but for the Buccaneers Jameis Winston played without throwing an interception and didn’t get the Buccaneers into trouble while Cam Newton continued to look nothing like himself. It’s hard to evaluate from the outside what is going on with his shoulder and foot problems, but he is not effective at the moment and as good as Christian MaCaffrey has looked, he cannot carry the team when they are struggling in the red zone and Cam is missing so many consecutive passes. A trip to Arizona might help get the Panthers get back to winning ways, but they have not made things easy for themselves.

The final important part of this game to mention was that it was my first safety of the season – now this is actually the third of the year and I need to cover them properly at some point – but yes I am still tracking them! In this one the Bucs were pinned back to the three yard line by the Panthers punt team, and on second and eleven Luke Kuechly burst through the line to tackle Peyton Barber in the end zone and prevent him from getting the whole ball back across the goal line.

It was a slightly light week of watching for me thanks to work and things going on at the weekend so I only got through half of the coaching tape from the week one game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants but it was enough for me to be impressed. The Cowboys might have started off slowly, but their offence is transformed with the kind of pre-snap motion you see all over the league as well as plays where running backs split out, line up as receivers and run routes, which the Patriots used very effectively last season. The added benefit of this offensive transformation is the way Dak Prescott is playing. There were two throws that impressed me with their precision and timing, but Prescott has also amassed six hundred and seventy-four yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception in his opening two games. Right now the Cowboys look like one of the better teams in the NFL and if they can stay healthy then this could be a very good year indeed for them indeed.

I have watched two games from Sunday and I will start with the painful one from my perspective, as the San Francisco 49ers beat the Cincinnati Bengals very convincingly 41-17. The 49ers managed this whilst not so much looking spectacular on offence as benefitting from some truly awful tackling from the Bengals defence who looked so good in week one. The pass rush still looks good dangerous and it could just be a blip, but in a home opener it was a pretty dispiriting performance. The Bengals’ offence didn’t do much better barring a couple of flash plays. There are receivers in the passing game with John Ross looking good for a second week in a row and Tyler Boyd leading the team in receiving yards, but two one-hundred-yard receivers could not produce consistently enough for the Bengals to keep them in the game. More injuries hampered the offensive line and for a second week in a row the run game never got started. More worryingly the Bengals’ next game sees them travel to an unbeaten Buffalo Bill’s team who might not finish as the class of the AFC at the end of the season but look setup to be a difficult team for anyone to face. I have a nasty feeling I’ll be writing about an 0-3 team next week.

The final game I saw was the Atlanta Hawks hosting and beating the Philadelphia Eagles in a highly entertaining 24-20 contest. The Eagles really struggled with injuries in this game losing multiple offensive players early and Carson Wentz missed a series with a rib injury. It was an entertaining game but at times there was sloppy quarterback play for both teams and five interceptions were thrown between Wentz and Matt Ryan. That said the Falcons did flash on offence several times and sealed the game with a beautiful fourth and three play that saw the left tackle Jake Matthews get down field and block a poor DB to spring Julio Jones for fifty-four yards and the winning touchdown.

What I Heard

There has been much discussion of quarterbacks with two of the elite tier going down injured and the announcement finally coming that Eli Manning will be benched for Daniel Jones. Unusually, Sam Darnold did not even make the start of the week two game having been ruled out with mononucleosis, but has been cleared to return to the facility and is aiming for a week five return. What state the team will be in by then is anyone’s guess as poor Trevor Siemian was lost for the season to an ankle early in the game. The former Denver Broncos quarterback has played well when healthy but was not able to stay that way in Denver and on a one year deal this is pretty much the worse case for him.

The Cleveland Browns did what they should have done and won 23-3 but they are still sloppy. You also have to wonder about the game management when a running back comes out of the medical tent after a concussion check and gets thrown back into the game despite it being the fourth quarter with the game well and truly in hand.

What I Think

Whilst picking games on Sunday I mentioned that there would be more 1-1 teams than 2-0 or 0-2 teams, which is my way of reminding myself that we can’t take too much as set in stone from one game for each team. Unfortunately, I promptly forgot that as I actually made my selections and that partially accounts for me having such a poor week, but it also feels like that the ratio of records is different than in previous years. What I ought to do is go look at the numbers, but it’s my birthday tomorrow so things are a little all over the place and I don’t have time today, but I might well have a look at some point.

What I can tell you is that there are nine teams that have gone 2-0 to keep an unbeaten record and matching nine who have lost both of their games. Thanks to the Detroit Lions’ tie with the Arizona Cardinals we have a team with a 1-0-1 record and a corresponding 0-1-1 record while twelve teams have gone 1-1.

The teams that are really in trouble are those like Washington who have lost two divisional games already and the Pittsburgh Steelers who have lost both games and their starting quarterback. The New Orleans Saints have also lost a starting quarterback and will need Teddy Bridgwater to play well if they hope to keep themselves in contention until Drew Brees can return form surgery on his torn thumb ligament. There are some teams that may well right themselves from a solitary loss but I’m finding it hard to see turn arounds for the 0-2 teams which is a worry. The Steelers have tried to strengthen this year’s team despite Roethlisberger being done for the season with his elbow injury by trading next year’s first round pick for Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, which is a brave move and if any team can turn it round it might be the Steelers but the defence needs to come together as well as the offence.

What I Know

This is going to be one of those ones that is going to haunt me for a while, as I know that Lamar Jackson is really good and he is going to torture my Bengals for a long time. He is rapidly becoming one of my favourites of the young quarterbacks and we are beginning to amass quite a list: Patrick Mahomes (who somehow is possibly playing better this year), Jackson, Jarred Goff who has been to a Super Bowl, Josh Allen has got the Bills to 2-0 whilst Kyler Murray has already show flashes in a couple of games. I may not be too keen on the way Baker Mayfield conducts himself at times but he was good enough to give the Browns hope whilst Sam Darnold has shown flashes and people were excited by Daniel Jones in pre-season despite him being picked too high. Still, I haven’t had to work hard to find this quarterbacks, and whilst I’m certainly not wish the end of the careers of the likes of Brees, Brady (the Patriots were scary good again on both offence and defence), or Roethlisberger – the quarterbacks that follow them are suddenly looking a lot better than it was only a couple of years ago despite the retirement of Andrew Luck and the stalling of careers like Derek Carr. I’ll finish by saying that Dak Prescott has looked really good through two games so one to keep an eye on as he approaches getting his second contact.

What I Hope

I want the Dolphins to do something in week three that brings Dan joy and the Bengals surprise us all with a win up in Buffalo. Failing that, I hope the Ravens @ Chiefs lives up to the expectations I have them because I think this has the potential to be the best game we’ve seen yet.

The Disappointed Twenty: AFC Edition

02 Wednesday Jan 2019

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It is time to say our sad farewells to the teams that have already gone their separate ways having failed to reach the playoffs. In a bid to make this more manageable to both read and write I will be covering the AFC today and the NFC tomorrow.

Before I begin there is one universal bit of comfort that any fan of the following teams should take, namely that in the NFL a franchise really can turnaround in an off-season, although there are some situations that may take a couple of off-seasons to sort out but even then a big improvement could be in the offing in September.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had a very up and down season that saw a 3-0 start falter and slip to 7-9 record. This has cost Adam Gase his job and it feels like the Dolphins will spend the off-season remaking the roster again and trying to find a franchise quarterback. There were questions raised before the season about trading away some of their best players to address issues in the locker room, but it was a lack of consistency and an utter failure on the road that cost this team. The Dolphins won their first road game against the Jets and failed to win another all year. The season highlight will undoubtedly be the last second hook and ladder play to beat the New England Patriots but once again the Dolphins couldn’t seriously challenge in the AFC East. My concern is that the roster and front office is as much to blame, if not more, than the coaches and until they build a team round a quarterback who can remain healthy for the whole season then there is only so much success they can have. They also rank twenty-seventh in the league for cap space next year and so there is not a lot of room to do much in free agency with the way the team is currently constructed.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills had a tough season this year as they traded away a number of assets to move up in the draft to get their quarterback of the future and whilst this did not affect the defence too badly as it finished second in the league by DVOA, the offence really suffered. The good news regarding Josh Allen was that he proved that he could be effective on the ground in the NFL, but he will need better players around him and to develop as a passer if the Bills are to get back to the playoffs. It will help that there is some stability as GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott are staying in place, and this team played hard for McDermott all year, but the offence will have to improve if they are to get where they want to go. The good news is that they have the third most free cap space next year so they have room to manoeuvre.

New York Jets

Having failed to get into the playoffs for three seasons and only going 4-12 this year the Jets let go of head coach Todd Bowles. I can understand that the franchise felt they needed a new voice, but Bowles was not given a huge amount to work with over the last couple of seasons and the Jets always seemed to play hard for him. The good news is that Sam Darnold is a promising young quarterback, but once again he will need to have the infrastructure placed around him to enable success. The worry will be that the defence also needs work as it only finished twenty-first in the league by DVOA despite Bowles’ pedigree as a defensive mind. At least they will have cap room to work with as they are second only to the Colts in cap space next year, but free-agency success doesn’t always translate onto the field as this franchise has learned only a few seasons ago.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers just missed out on the playoffs and will be kicking themselves about losses to the Broncos and Raiders. However, there was more than a little drama surrounding the team this season and to an outsider it seems that sorting this out may help the on field performance. Part of this should be achieved by the departure in free-agency of Le’Veon Bell, and certainly James Conner was an able and cheaper alternative at running back. In truth there doesn’t need to be big changes as there is an awful lot of talent on this team, who finished sixth on offence and thirteenth on defence by DVOA. I have no doubt the Steelers will be competitive next year and before we say there is too much wrong, with a now competitive Browns franchise the AFC North was one of the tougher divisions in the league this season. Speaking of which…

Cleveland Browns

I billed this post as the disappointed ten, and yes the Browns would prefer to be in the playoffs, but this is the first time since 2010 that the Browns have not been bottom of the division (and yes the Bengals were bottom that season too) and there are definitely things that should give the fans in Cleveland hope. For the first time since the new franchise was founded it looks as if the Browns have got a franchise quarterback and a five and three finish suggests that if the Browns can nail the coaching staff hire this off-season they should be competitive next year. There is plenty of young talent on the roster already and GM John Dorsey has a proven track record of success, whilst the Browns have the fourth most cap space next season. I’m happy for the long suffering fans of Cleveland but it does not make the picture look any better for the Bengals.

Cincinnati Bengals

All teams face injuries and there are plenty of teams who either had more, or had them more clustered, but the offence particularly suffered this season and when the defence didn’t really shape up until the last couple of weeks after Marvin Lewis took control then it’s not surprising that the season sputtered to a halt. The Lewis era is finally over in Cincinnati and I do not forget how much work he had to put in to make the franchise credible and not the laughing stock of the league but how this group moves on is the big question for next season. It is not implausible for the team to bounce back in the off-season, but they will need to be setup to improve and that really all does depend on the coaching staff as there is not much cap room to improve and Mike Brown seems to very much believe in incremental progress. There are a lot of unknowns right now and so us Bengals fans will just have to hope that the next hire is a good one.

Tennessee Titans

For all that I couldn’t get a handle on them for picking purposes, the Titans went 9-7 despite the injuries to quarterback Marcus Mariota and if he can get the nerve issue in his throwing arm to settle down in the off-season then there is no reason why the Titans can’t compete again next season. For all his accolades as a player, Mike Vrabel was a rookie head coach with limited experience as the man calling the shots and he made a winning start in his first year of coaching, which bodes well for the future. The AFC South could be very competitive next season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had a nightmare season, falling to 5-11 after getting to the conference championship game the year before. It appears that GM David Caldwell and head coach Doug Marone are coming back on Tom Coughlin’s say so but there are real problems here. They have no franchise quarterback and the running back they took ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes has struggled this year and there are reports that he’s been a problem in the locker room. They are also currently over the cap for next season and even if they cut Blake Bortles, $16.5 of his $21 million dollar cap hit would remain as dead money. For all that they have assembled a good defence, they desperately need a functioning solution at quarterback and better players on offence and who knows if they can put that together in the off-season. There may be trouble ahead for the Jaguars next season as a difficult off-season looms.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos could not sustain a challenge to get to the playoffs and ultimately fell to 6-10. The Broncos never really took off under Vance Joseph and with their vaunted defence slipping and Case Keenum not bringing the form he showed with the Vikings last season to the party this year, it feels like there is a lot up in the air this off-season. I don’t know how long it might take for John Elway to feel pressure, but his drafts have not been stellar and his only real success in finding a quarterback was signing Peyton Manning and even then, Manning was a shell of himself when they actually won the Super Bowl. Their cap situation is not a disaster, but they need to get the coaching hire right and nail a draft if they want to compete with the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West, which looks like it will be no easier next season.

Oakland Raiders

The best thing that can be said for the Raiders is that they have a lot of draft capital, but after a tumultuous campaign that saw them go 4-12, the Raiders head into the off-season with nowhere to play their home games next season and questions all over the roster. They have just hired Mike Mayock to be their GM, but whilst he has been a great analyst for ESPN, it is a different job evaluating talent when there are wins on the line and make no mistake it will be Jon Gruden calling the shots. A lot will depend on whether this new pairing can hit the ground running, but with the roster where it is and where to play up in the air, it’s hard to sit here and predict how the Raiders will go next year. Let’s just say it would not exactly be a shock if they struggle again…

The Good, The Bad and the Downright Ugly!

05 Wednesday Dec 2018

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It’s been an eventful week this week in the NFL. We’ve seen firings, injuries, releases and believe it or not, even some games! So, where do I start…

As per usual, I’ll start with the games – most specifically, the Dolphins game. I’ve decided that I’m not going to tell my doctor that I support Miami. As a man with high blood pressure, I think it would be seriously frowned upon, especially given the way our last few games have finished. That being said, we picked up a win this week, which takes us back to a .500 record at 6-6, but as I mentioned to Gee (while trying to somehow empathise with him in his pit of Black and Orange misery), we really made it difficult for ourselves, especially towards the end.

We started well, getting a first drive touchdown for the second week in a row, which is amazing given that we got none in the previous 20 games! De’vante Parker made an 18 yard grab, which was our longest for the game, and the defence did a really good job of keeping the Bills at bay, especially Shady McCoy, who usually causes Miami all sorts of problems, but was held to just 52 yards on Sunday. This was the first time I’d seen the Bills this year (I hate getting this far into the season without having seen teams, but time hasn’t been as kind as it usually is this year), and I was hugely impressed with Josh Allen at Quarterback. I know he started the season poorly, but he offers something I LOVE in a QB: a rushing option. And boy did they make the most of that! He bagged himself 135 yards on the ground, which was more than double what the whole of the rest of the Dolphins managed.

The Bills will be really kicking themselves. They lost the game by just 4 points, and having missed a PAT kick and a Field Goal try, you’ve got to think that kicker Steven Hauschka can’t be the most popular guy in the locker room this week.

Before I move on to talk about the rest of the week’s events as I saw them, I’ve got to call out Xavien Howard who once again intercepted 2 balls (taking his total for the season up to 7), and defended 17 throws! He’s having a real standout season so far and along with Kiko Alonso and even Minkah Fitzpatrick to a certain extent, they’re doing a good job of keeping games close for a team who aren’t exactly free-scoring. And all of a sudden, people are mentioning us with in the conversation about Wildcards again. With trips to Minnesota and Buffalo sandwiched by the visit of New England (who historically we do well against at home) and Jacksonville in our last 4 games, I think we might actually have a fairly decent chance… with a bit of luck and a prevailing wind.

Injury-wise, I found myself in deep sympathy for Gee this week who I think has well and truly written of the Bengals season after Sunday’s game, which saw AJ Green hit the Injured Reserve list, meaning his season is over. The positive is that he’ll be back next year, but between him and Average Andy (I said I feel sympathy for Gee, but not enough to let a poke like that pass me by!), I think there’ll be a lot of face-saving going on for the Bengals in the remaining 4 games.

The Packers struggled this week, losing a close one to the now 3-9 Arizona Cardinals, and as a result, Mike McCarthy was relieved of his Head Coaching duties, having arrived in Green Bay back in 2006. He’s pretty much the only head coach who Aaron Rogers has played under as a pro, and I think it’ll be interesting to see what they manage for the remainder of the season.

The Rams made it to be the first team to officially qualify for the post-season, with their win on Sunday night over the Lions, which as you’ll imagine, I was delighted about! That’s made my chart look like this:

Picks and Trivia-wise, it was a poor week for me. I committed the cardinal sin of changing one of my picks after I’d submitted them (in changing from the Giants to the Bears) which predictably lost me a point. And then having REALLY wanted to change again on Monday night, I decided not to tempt fate again, and as such, lost another point, so all in all, pretty bad! I think I’m too far behind to come out on top now – I’m thinking of going completely against my instinct this week to see if that gets me more points.

And I don’t think I can really finish this week without talking about the league’s biggest problem by far in SOME of it’s players attitudes towards women. I won’t go too far into it as I have a feeling that Gee will cover this in detail, but we’ve seen Kareem Hunt fired by the Chiefs this week having been caught on camera ‘shoving’ a woman. There’s far too much of this kind of thing going on, what with Ezekiel Elliot last year and a whole string of others who have been punished for this kind of behaviour. It’s worrying, and it’s about time the league and the teams involved stepped up and educated their players against this kind of behaviour. I’m sure every sport has it’s share of this kind of thing, but the NFL seems to be especially affected.

On the positive side, it’s Christmas just around the corner, and we’ll soon be seeing the other side of the league’s players who will no doubt once again be busy delivering food and toys to those less well off – it’s one of the things I’m most proud about when I see that being reported around the festive period.

So with just a few weeks left to go, who do you think will be making the playoffs? Can you seen any surprises sneaking in there? Say hello on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

AAF: Josh Allen

30 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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After this Thursday night’s game it would appear that the Minnesota Vikings defence might not be the same unit as it was last season, but for the week three coaching tape I had to look at the break out game from Josh Allen for this amateur adventures in film post.

The first thing I think it is important to say is that although Josh Allen finished with a passer rating of 111.2, his performance was a little bit mixed but that isn’t perhaps surprising given that he only had a completion percentage in the fifties whilst in college. The obvious thing that will have tantalised the Bills’ coaching staff is his arm as he can and did make some amazing throws, including jumping in the air on one play in the second half. However, the flow of the game meant that most of what was impressive happened in the first half if not the first quarter. His first touchdown of the game demonstrated his impressive athleticism even before he did his best superman dive to get to the pylon. The Bills’ offensive coaching were clearly helping him with a lot of play action when passing and he was not asked to sit in the pocket and make complex reads but make quick decisions and get the ball out. There was a play in the second half when he did drop back nicely, sit and then deliver the ball sharply but he doesn’t have the smoothest footwork and he will often have his coaches heart in his mouth as he believes in his arm and will let it go. However, he will really have to work on the fine details of being an NFL quarterback and one of them that was highlighted through the frequent play action plays was his frankly perfunctorily fake handoffs where the ball was more gestured at the running back than offered and it is the small details like this that could really help him as it will keep the defence off balance by making them commit to defending the run. It definitely began to bug me through the game so I’ll treat you all to the fake Andy Dalton pulled off last week and it shows the power of working on a fundamental of being a quarterback so watch this.

In the second half as the game drew on the Bills very much started to run the ball to run out the clock, but take nothing away from this young man who has given his team a spark after they really struggled in the first two games and he does not have a great offensive line or skill players. He did spin into trouble a couple of times, and was very lucky that a ball that was stripped because he spun with the ball held out was recovered but I have no doubt the coaches will have been highlighting that this week. It is far too early to tell how far he can go, but Josh Allen definitely has talent and the big question is how he develops with NFL coaching, which will be crucial to see if he can become the franchise quarterback the front office of Buffalo are hoping he’ll be. As I say a lot, only time will tell but he at least has the tools to work with and as more and more college concepts find their way into the NFL he has a fighting chance.