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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Tag Archives: Week 1 Picks

2022 Week One Picks

11 Sunday Sep 2022

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 1 Picks

It has been a surreal few days in the UK and with a lot going on personally our picks saw both Dan and I back the Bills in Thursday night’s season opener against the Rams and be proved correct. We have also had Russ join the group this seasons so I’ll bring his pick totals starting next Thursday and we’ll see how things go.

Survivor Competition

It is interesting that both Dan I went for road teams this week as Dan is backing the Broncos in Seattle whilst I am backing the Colts against the Texans. Let’s see if one of us has got our early predictions really out of whack.

Week 1 Selection:

Gee:    Colts
Dan:    Broncos

Bold Prediction of the Week

There’s a reason my bold prediction is bold this week, in that for some reason I decided to back the Falcons to keep the game within six points on the podcast. The numbers are against me in as is my actual pick below, but this is an accidental hedge I suppose.

Early Games:

I will be watching the Bengals welcoming the Steelers, nervous about the line but hopeful to win, and will also be watching the Jaguars visit Washington as I want to see what new head coach Doug Peterson has cooked up for Trevor Lawrence. I could just as easily be watching the Browns visiting the Panthers in the Baker Mayfield revenge game or any one of the others given there’s things to discover about every team in week one.

Saints @ Falcons (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

49ers @ Bears (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Lions (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

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Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Ravens @ Jets (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Jaguars @ Washington (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Browns @ Panthers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Colts @ Texans (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Late Games:

I think the best matchups are the Packers at the Vikings and Raiders at the Chargers – although the other two games have plenty to keep the interest in the later slot.

Giants @ Titans (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Packers @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Chiefs @ Cardinals (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Sunday Night Football:

This is a weird game that I really struggled to call as I don’t like the off-season the Bucs’ offence had at all between injury and the situation with Tom Brady, but the Cowboys have to have taken a step backwards and at this early part of the season I’m simply grabbing the points at home and hoping for the best.

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Monday Night Football

A lot of the drama around this game is Russel Wilson’s return to Seattle, not to mention what Nathaniel Hackett has been cooking up for the Broncos new quarterback so this was the final full game I’ll be watching..

Broncos @ Seahawks (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

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2021 Week One Picks

12 Sunday Sep 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 1 Picks

Well, the opening game of the season between the Cowboys and Buccaneers was an absolute cracker that went down to a last-minute field goal so let’s see how the rest of the week one games live up to it. Making picks in the early couple of weeks is always more of an art than science, even more so with the truncated pre-season and the trend amongst an increasing number of teams to barely play their starters so let’s see what we can do

Early Games:

The standout contest in the early games is the Pittsburgh Steelers taking on the Bills. I am really interested to see how the Steelers offence looks with new coordinator Matt Canada and the addition rookie running back Najee Harris, while the Bills are a team look set to mount a credible push for the Super Bowl. Time will tell if quarterback Josh Allen can maintain the jump in play he achieved last season, but even with some regression this team look set to compete once more. I think this line could be a little high given how well the Steelers’ defence played last season and so whilst I like the Bills to win the game, I’m going to grab the points.

This could be a big third season for Kliff Kingsbury with the Arizona Cardinals and the signing of multiple recognisable free agents in their thirties certainly demonstrates and urgency to push into the playoffs, although a winning season would be a good start. The Titans meanwhile have only had winning seasons under Mike Vrabel and have gone to the playoffs in the last two season. The big questions for them are: can the offence be as good without coordinator Arthur Smith, can Derek Henry sustain his remarkable production given the number of carries over the last two seasons, and can they patch together a defence to truly compete in the playoffs? Obviously, this game won’t answer any of the big questions for either of these teams, but its an intriguing early glimpse of what’s to come.

The other game I wanted to discuss in a little more detail is the Washington Football Team hosting the LA Chargers. I am curious to see what effect new head coach Brandon Staley has on the Chargers, both int terms of their defence, but also how they are developing quarterback Justin Herbert in his second year having torn up the league in his rookie season. Going against the third best defence by DVOA last year should be good a test and while defence ranking seems to be less sticky that offence, I find it hard to think a team coached by Ron Rivera would fall off that much on defence. I am also intrigued to see how the offence looks with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm as the glimpses I saw in pre-season were promising.

Points from the rest:

  • There’s a lot of unknowns in Philadelphia while the Falcons also have a new head coach in Arther Smith. I am definitely looking forward to finally getting a proper look at rookie tight end Kyle Pitts and what Smith has in store for him.
  • I am hoping that the turmoil in Minnesota gives the Bengals a chance in this game, but the Vikings are a team looking to push on again after a difficult 2020 season. However, the Vikings have an established base under Zimmer and I’m looking for Bengals to build something concrete on either side of the ball under Zac Taylor. First target, let’s get Joe Burrow through the season healthy.
  • How can you not be curious about the Detroit Lions given the human quote machine that is Dan Campbell, but the 49ers are not an easy team to face, whoever is playing quarterback for them right now.
  • It looks like Carson Wentz is starting and I’m interested to see if he can recover enough form for the Colts to continue to compete given the commitment in salary that the Colts have made recently. The Seahawks are always competitive under Pete Carroll and I am looking forward to seeing what new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has planned for Russell Wilson so this should be a great watch and in a less idiosyncratic list would have got more of a write up. I’m certainly looking forward to seeing what happens.
  • The Jets at Panthers is the Sam Darnold bowl, but both teams will be hoping they’ve made the right move at quarterback. It’s interesting that the Panthers went for Darnold when they could have drafted one of the five first round QBs selected in this year’s draft who have all looked promising in pre-season. It will be hard to get too much of a read against a rebuilding Jets team who lost their big free agent pass rusher Carl Lawson before the first snap of the season and who really just need to find some things to build around this season.
  • The Jaguars are taking on the Texans in the first test of Urban Myer’s plans in the NFL with proper game planning. It’s a sign of how bad things are in Houston that an unproven in the NFL head coach with a rookie quarterback is laying points on the road, but it feels like it’s going to be a long season for Houston fans.

Eagles @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Steelers @ Bills (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Vikings @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

49ers @ Lions (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Cardinals @ Titans (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Seahawks @ Colts (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Chargers @ Washington (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Jets @ Panthers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Jaguars @ Texans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Late Games:

The late game that leaps off the page is the Cleveland Browns taking on last year’s defeated Super Bowl team the Kansas City Chiefs. There could be a hangover for the Chiefs in that they have been to two consecutive Super Bowls, but with the combination of head coach Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes it’s hard to see the Chiefs suffering a big fall off this season like so many defeated Super Bowl teams. The Chiefs remade their offensive line in the offseason and once more look like a team gearing up for a Super Bowl run. However, this is no easy game for them as the Browns have one of the stronger rosters in the league these days and Kevin Stefanski worked wonders in his rookie season as head coach in the middle of a pandemic. If he can continue to improve Baker Mayfield’s play, then there’s no reason for them to fear anyone, including the Chiefs. I wouldn’t like to predict who is going to win this game, but this line is too high for me as the Browns should be pushing for the playoffs again.

Points on the Rest:

  • I’m looking forward to seeing what Tua Tagovoila can do now he is running an offence built around his skill set and expect the Dolphins to compete again as that’s all they’ve done under Brian Flores. However, the Patriots have their own young QB in rookie Mac Jones and a defence that is potentially scary good this season with the number of players returning from last season’s opt outs. You don’t win or push the rules as much as Bill Belichick does without being competitive, so I don’t think he needs the extra motivation of proving himself after Brady won the Super Bowl last year as some are suggesting, but I’m sure the Pats are expecting to be competitive this year after a rough 2020.
  • I am curious to see what Sean Payton can do with Jameis Winston as his quarterback, but the Saints salary cap woes means I’m not sure how competitive they can be with this retooled roster missing Michael Thomas, particularly now they are displaced thanks to the hurricane that hit New Orleans. The Packers were making headlines all offseason given the situation with Aaron Rodgers, but having reported at the start of training camp there is no reason not to expect the offence to be good again. The question is, can the change in defensive coordinator push the Packers from thirteen win seasons into the Super Bowl?
  • The Broncos taking on the Giants is an intriguing game given the unknowns for both teams. The Broncos are going with Teddy Bridgewater as their quarterback, but the defence was good last season despite ace pass rusher Von Miller being lost in pre-season. If Bridgewater can be effective with the young skill players of the Broncos they can at least be competitive. I liked a lot of what Joe Judge built in New York in his first season, but too much rests on the question of whether Daniel Jones is a franchise QB or not. The Giants made moves to give him no excuses so it’s a big season for Jones, and I’m not sure on this one at all.

Browns @ Chiefs (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Packers @ Saints (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Broncos @ Giants (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Rams (-6.5)

The Sunday night game is one that’s fascinating in large part because we get to see Matthew Stafford running Sean McVay’s offence. Their defence will also be an intriguing thing to monitor through the season as the loss of coordinator Staley along side several players around the stars of Jalen Ramsay and Aaron Donald means there’s a lot of questions and an injury to either defensive star could cause real problems. However, the Bears are a curious team in of themselves, with a defence that has fallen off a little under Matt Nagy. They answered one question at quarterback by moving on from Mitchell Trubisky, but how long Andy Dalton can hold off Justin Fields is the new questions alongside whether this team can this team truly compete. The line would seem to indicate not, but the questions surrounding the Bears are going to take weeks to resolve, and they’ve never had a losing season under Nagy so let’s see if he can improve on the last two seasons of 8-8.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rans

Monday Night Football

Ravens @ Raiders (+4.5)

This is a game that is intriguing rather than one that sets the pulse racing. I think we know to a large degree what we will get out of the Ravens, and the question is still whether Lamar Jackson can become a good enough passer on defined throwing downs to push his team on. Still, Jackson is an electric talent and the Ravens have clearly been attempting to improve his receiving options in the offseason. They travel to face a Raiders team who rebuilt their offensive line in the offseason and invested once again in their defence, but the combination of Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock still doesn’t feel like it is working to a clear enough plan. I don’t doubt Gruden’s footballing brain, but I’m not sure of him as a head coach, although for me a lot rests on whether Gus Bradley can transform a defence that has consistently been in the bottom quarter of the league by DVOA. It will be good to see the Las Vegas stadium full and I wonder how the dynamics of visiting fans vs Raider fans work out, but the Raiders will likely find this a tough way to start the season

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week One Picks

13 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Baker Mayfield, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, DeAndre Hopkins, Derwin James, Devlin Hodges, Drew Lock, Gardner Minshew, Joe Judge, Jon Gruden, Josh Allen, Josh Burrow, Kevin Stefanski, Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray, Mason Rudolph, Matthew Stafford, Mike McCarthy, Mitchell Trubisky, Myles Garrett, NFL, Odell Beckham, Pete Carroll, Philip Rivers, Sean McVay, Stefon Diggs, Tom Brady, Von Miller, Week 1 Picks

Well, I didn’t exactly start the picks competition how I wanted to on Thursday, but I don’t feel bad about the process of my pick and I think it is going to take some time to dial in given the absence of pre-season games to work from. We also don’t know how the absence of crowds will affect home field advantage so I might play some hunches a little more at the start of the year, but it is a long season.

I am going to try to break up this picks column in a new way this season to take some of the leg work out of the post and so hopefully get into coaching tape more regularly, assuming that life settles down. The blog still feels weird without trivia because of why I have had to move things round and I think that sense of loss is going to be there for a while, but it will also be nice to get back into something like our normal in-season routine.

At this stage, with no pre-season almost every game is intriguing because we have even less idea of how teams really are so let’s get down to some picks.

Early Games:

My favourite of the early contests to watch is probably the Packers at the Vikings as that is a big divisional game and I want to see how the Vikings re-tooled defence looks and if there is any progression in the Packers offence. The consensus number for this game has the Vikings at -2.5 that might lead you to take the Packers, but I have also seen a projection higher than the -3.5 the Vikings are laying and with them  at home I’m leaning to the Vikings, who have taken on an increased importance to me this season.

The other contests that catch the eye in this time slot are the Seahawks taking on the Falcons in Atlanta as the Falcons will be looking to pick up from their strong end to last season and the Seahawks are always competitive under Pete Carroll. I think everyone will be curious to see how Cam Newton looks as the Patriots host the Dolphins, but given this is a divisional game and the Pats lost more players to Covid-19 sit outs than any other team I think this one will be closer than seven. I could be wrong, but I have a lot of Brian Flores even though this is based on only one season as a head coach.

Finally, the Ravens are heavy favourites hosting the Browns, but with Kevin Stefanski taking over the Browns I think the offence could take a big step forward depending on how pre-season has gone. Certainly Baker Mayfield needs to regain some confidence as a starting QB in his third season, but with some improvement and a healthy Odell Beckham as well as Myles Garrett returning to the defence I like the Browns to keep this game closer than nine points. However, I do think the Ravens are going to be strong contenders this season as they look to not just get back to the play-offs, but win and go deep to better reflect their regular season form.

Other things of interest:

  • How Philip Rivers looks for the Colts and what state the Jaguars are in on the field. They will certainly be watching closely to see if Gardner Minshew is a franchise quarterback.
  • Can Josh Allen take a step forward for the Bills and what effect the addition of Stefon Digs will have on Allen’s passing. I really don’t know what to expect from the Jets, although they are another franchise trying to confirm what they have in their quarterback.
  • How will the Lions look with Matthew Stafford back from injury and will the Lions look more likely to be competitive division. I also wonder how Mitchell Trubisky will look and version of the Bears from the last two seasons will show up.
  • How will the reformed Panthers look as they host a Raiders side looking to get a winning season in Jon Gruden’s third season. More importantly for, can their defence improve on it’s thirty-first ranking by DVOA of the last two season.
  • What will the Washington Football Team look on the field after such a turbulent off-season as they host an Eagles side who will be hoping that they can’t be as injured as last season and that quarterback Carson Wentz not only plays a full season for a second year in a row but has the receivers to let them take the next step.

Seahawks @ Falcons (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Jets @ Bills (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Lions (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Browns @ Ravens (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Packers @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Raiders @ Panthers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Late Games:

There are three intriguing games in the late slot, but the pick of them has to be the Buccaneers travelling to the Saints where the Bucs will be hoping that with Tom Brady the offence will be productive and the defence pays to a similar level as they did last season. I think that Brady will help the Bucs take a step forward, but there have been signs of slippage and as good as his skills players look, the Saints have been all in for three seasons already and have one of the deepest rosters in the league. I could be very wrong, and this will definitely be one of the games I watch this week, but like the Saints’ continuity to win out in this one.

Of course, I am excited to see Josh Burrow to take the field, but I am realistic about what I can expect from the Bengals this season and so I’m looking for progress not the play-offs. The Chargers have already lost a huge impact player from their defence in Derwin James and getting this number of points at home I am leaning to the Bengals keeping the game to within four, if not winning the game if everything breaks right for them.

Finally, a divisional game between the Cardinals and 49ers is interesting with DeAndre Hopkins taking the field with Kyler Murray and we shall have to see if in his second year with the Cardinals whether head coach Kliff Kingsbury can lead them to a better record of 5-11. The 49ers will prove a tough test as they should be competitive again this season and I wonder how the offence will look given their injuries at receivers, which is why I have picked the Cardinals to keep the game closer than eight, but I could easily see me getting this one wrong.

Chargers @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Buccaneers @ Saints (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cardinals @ 49ers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

This could be a spectacular game as the LA Rams open their new stadium to a Cowboys team under their new coach Mike McCarthy. I think this has the potential to be an explosive game, and certainly all eyes will be on if Sean McVay can keep the Rams competitive after the overhaul of their roster and the change in defensive coordinator. I am really curious about how the Cowboys will look under McCarthy, and expect them to do well this season, but I’m getting an extra half point for the Rams at home than the consensus line and I’ve seen a projection of an even closer score so I’m going to grab the points.

Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Monday Night Football:

Week one finishes with a pair of Monday night football games, but I am not sure how competitive they will be.

The Giants under new head coach Joe Judge are at the beginning of a big rebuild project and whilst I am curious to see how they look, I am looking for progress rather than a spectacular turn around. The Steelers had the third ranked defence by DVOA last season and a fit again Ben Roethlisberger has been getting good reviews in camp. It was an impressive feat for the Steelers to go 8-8 with the combination of Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph at quarterback and I expect the Steelers to be truly competitive this season with Roethlisberger back behind center.

The contest between the Broncos and Titans looks less enticing with Von Miller likely out for the season with his ankle injury. The Broncos’ franchise player is a big loss for the defence, and I can’t help but think that the Broncos will be happy if they can establish Drew Lock as their franchine quarterback. This line looks to have been set before the Miller injury news as the consensus has the Broncos getting three points. I worry about the home field advantage that the Broncos will retain as their stadium is at high altitude and this is particularly likely to be a problem with the lack of pre-season games to help with conditioning. However, the Titans have always be competitive under Mike Vrabel and I like getting points when I think the Titans are the better team and only have to win by a field goal to cover. I might regret this, but then that is my usual refrain making picks.

Steelers @ Giants (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Titans @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Well, that’s it for week one. I have no idea how these picks will go, but I’m excited to see more football and I’m already eyeing up what I’m going to be watching on coaching tape next week.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday Will Never be the Same Again

10 Thursday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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3D, Dan's Dad, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, NFL Trivia, Picks Competition, Week 1 Picks

It has been a strange week in a bizarre year. The NFL pre-season has both taken forever then flown by without games and suddenly the season opens tonight.

However, sadly one of the TWF team is not here to see it as Dan’s Dad, current Picks Competition Champion and Trivia Master passed away earlier in the week.

I have already written this pre-season of the power of sports to bring people together, and not only does it do that, but at its best it can provide a scaffolding for friendships and family. Going to the football with your dad for the first time and being enthralled by the green of the grass. The connection to your cricket loving gran and a shared bond through Test Match Special that means the TMS team are never far away from making you think of her, and tears in your eyes when England win the world cup and wishing she’d been here to see it. Taking your nephew to see the Baggies and being responsible for an excited seven-year-old on your own for the first time.

Dan and I met through music. We were the rhythm section for a Leicester band no-one remembers. Making music together is another quick way to tie people together. There’s a vulnerability when creating together that quickly forms a bond if entered into in the right spirit. We stayed in touch even after the band broke up, and a shared love of the NFL led to Super Bowls spent texting each other and so when I was setting up an NFL blog it seemed natural to ask if he would picks games with me to give this blog a structure.

Clearly it worked as six years later we are still here!

About eighteen months after that, Dan came to me and said he fancied doing a podcast and The Wrong Football podcast was born. Early on (I’d have to go back and check to be sure, and I’m really not sure I want to listen to those early pods) Dan’s Dad sent a question to his son and in no time at all a segment was formed and continued, even when the podcast went on hiatus where it transferred to my Competition Thursday posts.

To be honest, a lot of the time it felt like Dan & I taking on 3D as he became known to me (Devious Dan’s Dad) and he won not one but two picks seasons as the trivia flowed on, testing us, sometimes relenting if we were scoreless for too many weeks in a row, but never easing up for long.

The picks wins are the reason that the site is currently in Vikings’ purple and gold, and at some point, I will work out what to do on here to mark his memory, but the colours are his for this season by right as well as sentiment.

Dan’s Dad wrote a great post about his own fandom, eerily titled Th… Th… That’s All Folks! that I would suggest you read for a look into NFL fandom from a different time. I’m sure I will read it again when I can bring myself to.

I am going to miss being stumped by his trivia, and the weekly emails during the season, as well as our WhatsApp group chats. Of course, Dan is going to miss his dad and Dan’s children are not going to remember their grandad. Oh, the stories we are going to tell them, so they know some of the man.

There is no easy way to turn this back to Competition Thursday.

A regular post that I will always associate with 3D.

The is the second post that has reduced me to tears this season, and we haven’t even seen a game yet, but I have a feeling it won’t be the last.

Find someone close and give them a hug is what Dan said earlier this week on twitter, and I cannot think of better sentiment.

In the meantime, as the season stops for no-one, and with a heavy heart, I will turn to the first Competition Thursday of the 2020 season.

Knowing full well that it will never be the same again.

Texans @ Chiefs (-10.5)

I have a feeling that our picks will be particularly turbulent through the start of the season as we have nothing to really guide us. The Chiefs have kept their core together whilst the ongoing issue of having a coach making personnel decisions makes me worry about the Texans. However, at this point what we have is a very big line, that is a point and a half over the consensus figure I have seen and so I’m going to make the numbers based play and look forward to what should be a really good game.

Dan is going the other way and could very well be right!

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Survivor Competition

We were already moving the trivia competition to the podcast so when the pod resumes next week so will the trivia. In its place on the blog we are going to run a friendly (I’m sure Dan and I will still desperately want to win) survivor competition. I’m running it via a spreadsheet across the season with a score to see who does best as there’s just the two of us, but we will still only be able to pick a team once for the season and unless Dan objects I think there should be a bonus point for whoever stays alive the longest.

However, this week both of us appear to have used the same logic, and picked the team playing the Jaguars. We shall see if this is a case of great minds think alike, or fools seldom differ.

Week 1 Selection:

Gee:     Colts
Dan:    Colts

2019 Week One Picks

08 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 1 Picks

And so to a week of picks I feel singuarly unqualified to make, although in fairness week one is always tough with so little to go on other than instinct. This feels particularly true this year given how little most team played their starters in pre-season.

Still, running with the theme of unprepared here we go with the week one trivia question:

‘Prior to arriving in St. Louis in 1960, in which city did the Cardinals play their home games?’

Now, I’m fairly sure I remember this from an offseason feature about franchise records and so I’m going with them moving from Chicago to St Louis before becoming the Phoenix then Arizona Cardinals. I’m also going to take a guess at the them being the pre-merger teams given we are celebrating the NFL’s 100th season. Now for Dan’s answers:

‘Well, this couldn’t have been a better start for me as I immediately knew the answer to the trivia question!  The Cardinals moved from Chicago in 1960.

For the question link, it literally could be anything at this stage! I’m going to make a guess at the answers are all places that my dad has been to?’

Falcons @ Vikings (-4.5)

This is an intriguing matchup as the Vikings, who are always competitive under Mike Zimmer, host a Falcons team who did surprisingly well last season given how ravaged they were by injury. The Falcons have invested a lot in strengthening their offensive line and I’m expecting a close game. The Vikings have a good home field advantage, but I’m expecting more of a contest than this and so based purely on the number I’m backing the Falcons to keep it within five points.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bills @ Jets (-3.5)

This should be an interesting game that sees two division rivals looking to improve on last year’s showing and given the offseason moves I’m really not sure how these teams are going to matchup. I think that Sam Darnold is the more talented quarterback starter and the addition of Le’Veon Bell has the potential to really help Darnold. I am also looking forward to seeing what Adam Gase can do with him after the difficult years in Miami but the Bills have been frequently competitive under Sean McDermott and the extra half point has me nervous about the Jets. I don’t trust either team really so I’m once again basing this pick on the number.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Titans @ Browns (-5.5)

It is interesting that the consensus line I’m seeing matches the one ESPN have given us and it clearly reflects the positivity surrounded the Browns. Opening their season against the Titans at home they will be looking to break their fourteen game losing streak in opening games and I can definitely seem them doing so, but this feels like a high line to me. The Titans were nothing if not competitive last season and I expect them to be so again. I think the Browns have as much hope as I can remember and I could live to regret this, but I want to see it before I start given away these kinds of points, even if they are at home.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Chiefs @ Jaguars (+3.5)

The Jaguars will be looking to get revenge from last season as they welcome the Chiefs in what should be a fascinating contest between the Chiefs high powered offence and the Jaguars defence. This may well be my first coaching tape matchup of the new season but right now we have a home underdog who only have to be within a field goal for me to get the point. I’m really not sure about this line and with no numbers to work on I’m falling back on the fact that head coach Andy Reid is spectacularly good when he’s had time to prepare and so despite being tempted by the home points, I’m nervously backing the Chiefs and their high-powered offence. This feels very wrong,..

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Rams @ Panthers (+2.5)

Much like the previous game, the Rams starting their season in Carolina sees one of last year’s high powered offences starting their season on the road, but whilst even on a down year the Jaguars’ defence was top ten by DVOA – the Panthers very much weren’t. The Panthers have not had the best preparation this off-season either with Cam Newton suffering a foot injury and having to manage his shoulder after another injury last season. This is another home underdog game where I should probably grab the points but I am not going to – I have a lot more faith in Sean McVay and the Rams right now to win by a field goal. I don’t like taking two road favorites in a row but these project to be some of the strongest teams in the league and so I’m picking like it.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Ravens @ Dolphins (+4.5)

If there is one thing I know about the Dolphins it is that Dan will be blindly picking them even though they are clearly focusing on the future rather than this season. This is also the third home underdog in a row and I’m still not taking one of them. I’m sorry Dan, the points make me pause a little, but I think the Ravens are going to be very competitive and with the trading away of their talent last weekend I’m not sure even Fitzmagic can rescue a cover for the Dolphins.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Washington @ Eagles (-9.5)

This is the first of two giant lines and I can totally see why. The Eagles have one of the deepest looking rosters in the league thanks to their top-notch front office and a Super Bowl winning head coach, whilst Washington’s front office is questionable to say the least. There are some injuries amongst the Eagles starters that might make me pause, but the consensus line I’m seeing is actually higher than this line and so I’m once again backing a strong hunch.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Bengals @ Seahawks (-9.5)

So the Bengals have one of the toughest starts to the season I can remember, on the road in Seattle and with yet another potential starting lineman missing through injury they are starting Andre Smith at left tackle. I want to be full of hope, but I have a feeling this could be a rough start to the season. That said, this would be the fifth straight pick where I back the favourite and given how the Bengal’s move the ball in the offseason and Russell Wilson losing his favourite target in Doug Baldwin, I’m going to back the Bengals to keep this within ten. If I can’t have hope in the first game of the season, when can I?

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Colts @ Chargers (-2.5)

I never know how to treat the Chargers given their unusual home field situation as it definitely feels they have lost out to the Rams in the battle for LA fans . They go into this game as favourites despite the injuries and likely because of Luck’s retirement and I don’t have a strong feeling on how the Colts will cope. The good news is that Jacoby Brissett has taken first team snaps all pre-season and the Colts are perhaps the healthier team but I’m going to stick with the home team as they only need a field goal to cover. I’m just worried this is a reflex pick because of how good Philip Rivers is.

Gee’s Pick:         Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Chargers

Giants @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have Ezekial Elliott in the fold but the Giants have their own star running back. However, the Cowboys have their strong offensive line and an improving defence to rely on whilst the Giants are very much in transition. However, this is a big line and I do wonder if big blue might be a bit more competitive than this given the rust that Elliott might have with his lack of off-season work. I’m basing this pick purely off the number as I need to see the Cowboy justify a choice back them to win by eight before I am going to do it – I don’t have that much faith Jason Garrett.

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Cardinals (+2.5)

And here is the first game where I throw up my hands and state I don’t know what to do. We haven’t seen what Kliff Kingsbury has in store for his offence and this could well be a game where he can spring a surprise thanks to the lack of tape. They host a Lions team who struggled last season and I’m not sure they have made the moves in the off-season to turn things around. This is my last chance to pick a home underdog and given that I have no earthly clue what is likely to happen in this game that is what I am going to do…

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

49ers @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

I am interested in every game this week, but given the soft spot I have for Bruce Arians I am really curious about what he can do with his new team and Jameis Winston. The Buccaneers start the season by hosting a 49ers team who still don’t really know if the player they are paying like a franchise quarterback is one, and Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a torn ACL that cost him most of last season. I’m really not sure how this game is going to play out and that is what worries me. Still, the Football Outsiders playoff odds predicts the 49ers to be 1.4 games better than the Buccaneers and this line is half a point higher than the consensus so I’m going with the 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Steelers @ Patriots (-6.5)

Now this should be fascinating match-up as the Steelers roll into New England to take on the Super Bowl champion Patriots. The Steelers will be hoping that the removal of two of their killer Bs will improve their team through the subtraction of their distractions, but they go into this game with a 2-6 record over the last ten years against the Patriots. If there is a good time to catch the Patriots though it is at the start of the season, and the Pats do have problems coming into the season thanks to injuries on the offensive line. I think come the end of the year the Patriots will be right up with the best teams as usual but they deliberately start the season slow, have injuries, and even though Roethlisberger’s road from is questionable this feels like too many points to be giving the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Texans @ Saints (-6.5)

The first Monday Night Football game of the seasons sees the Houston Texans travel to take on the New Orleans Saints. Their has been a lot of roster movement in the last week or so for the Texans and there only a few places tougher to go to in the league than the Superdome. The Saints are all in for another year and my only concern is the way Drew Brees struggled to throw the ball deep in the second half of last season, yet the Saints were close to getting to the Super Bowl and look to be in the mix again this year. As much as I love JJ Watt, the Texans do not convince me so whilst this is a lot points I’m still leaning to the Saints and hope that I’m not underestimating the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5)

The second Monday night game of the week sees the Oakland Raiders welcome the Denver Broncos and I really don’t know what to do. The Raiders have not convinced under Jon Gruden one bit and the Denver Broncos are relying on Joe Flacco to lead the offence. I like the hire of Vic Fangio for the Broncos but this feels a little like the meeting of the also rans of the AFC West. The presence of Von Miller gives the Broncos possibly the biggest difference maker but I don’t have strong lean either way. I don’t like the idea of giving away points picking the Raiders so that will have to do as the final deciding factor in this one. Oh to have some numbers to work with in the coming weeks!

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

2018 Week One Picks

09 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 1 Picks

So here it is, the first week of picks and having dropped a point to Dan already let’s see if I can pick some points back up again!

Before we get going though there’s the small matter of this year’s trivia competition so here’s a reminder of the week one question:

‘All teams aspire to finish as high as they can so we kick off the new season with a question about the Highest Altitude of NFL Stadia. At 5280 feet the Broncos Mile High Stadium is way too easy as a question but, at 1070 feet, who comes in second?’

So my first thought was that Dan’s dad is just too good at this and I’m betting that I can’t have the Raiders when they play in Mexico City. I mentally went through the NFL divisions and had a couple of thoughts, although my knowledge of American geography is not that strong, and in the end I’m going to plump for the Buffalo Bills. Now I get to check what Dan thought and feel like an idiot…

‘So, I don’t know the answer to this, but to guess I’m between two – one with an element of Logic (Chicago – it’s windy, makes sense that it’s high up) and one because I just have a feeling (Detroit). I’ll go for Chicago I think!’

Remember the actual answer will be revealed in The Wrong Football Newsletter that is sent out Wednesday nights so sign up here.

Bills @ Ravens (-5.5)

I am worried about the Bills’ offensive line and the effect it will have on their young quarterbacks and the Ravens look to be competitive this year with better receivers than they’ve had in recent seasons so I’m going with the Ravens in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

‘While this could go either way, the Bills are already a bit banged up going into week one, so I’m going for Baltimore’

Bengals @ Colts (-3.5)

I’m feeling good about how the Bengals looked in pre-season and I come into this game relatively confident about how they are going to play. Yes the Colts beat them in pre-season but Andrew Luck has been out for a long time with his shoulder injury and they are still in the process of rebuilding a roster that sorely lacked talent. I think the Bengals are the better team (please don’t let me be wrong!) and so with an extra half point I’m taking the road underdog Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

‘Almost everything wants me to go for the Colts here, especially with Andrew Luck being back, but something’s telling me the Bengals are going to do it! Hopefully that doesn’t jinx you mate!’

Steelers @ Browns (+6.5)

This is a bit of a tricky one for me as I think the Steelers are the better team, but they have a nasty habit of playing down to their opposition and they will be without Le’Veon Bell who still hasn’t signed back with his team. I’m wary of the Hard Knocks curse but I thought watching the pre-season games that the Browns were more competitive and this point total means the Browns only have to stay within a touchdown. This game would be a lot easier to pick in a week or two but I think Myles Garrett is going to a real menace to quarterbacks and I’m going to give the Browns a go. Watch Antonio Brown make me look like a fool!

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

‘If Hard Knocks has taught me anything it’s that the Browns will win a game this year. Not this one though. Away Win.’

Titans @ Dolphins (+1.5)

There are so many unknown variables in this one. For the Titans what effect will Mike Vrabel have on his team and will new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur be able to unlock Marcus Mariota’s full potential. Meanwhile, the Dolphins traded or cut their best players on defence and offence whilst quarterback Ryan Tannehill is coming back from a year off with a knee injury and I trust Adam Gase as a head coach. The Titans may well end the season with the better record but in a game I’m not sure of I’m going to grab the points for the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

‘Dolphins. Obviously.’

49ers @ Vikings (-5.5)

This should be a really fascinating game given that it features the unbeaten Jimmy Garoppolo (it’s just fun to type that so I’m going to enjoy it until it stops being a thing) and the improving 49ers taking on the Vikings with their new quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings had a real home advantage in their new stadium last year and I expect it to be the same this year. The loss of the Jerick Mckinnon to a torn ACL is a cruel blow for the 49ers and so despite the points and my nervousness about the streak, I’m picking the Vikings to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

‘I think this is going to be a good year for the modern day Purple People Eaters this year, and I think they’ll start with a home win. Minnesota.’

Texans @ Patriots (-6.5)

There are enough warning signs in New England that I think this game could be competitive, but the problem is that it is a big could. The Texans defence has all the pieces you could want whilst their offence sees the return of Deshaun Watson who set the league alight last year before his injury. The Patriots come into the season with questions at the skills position and a forty-one year old quarterback but you just know that we can’t discount Belichick and Brady until we actually see it go wrong. However, this is enough points for me to take the Texans and I just hope that I’m not reading too much into the Texans keeping the game within three last season.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

‘New England are going to have another very New England year. I’ll put them down for a win by a TD.’

Buccaneers @ Saints (-9.5)

This number of points should worry me in an opening game but the fact is that Saints are at home and have everything setup to follow last year’s season with another good one and I’m not at all convinced by the Buccaneers. There’s plenty of potential for the Bucs to make me eat my words but in week one I’m just swinging with my convictions and that says the Saints cover this and win.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

‘The 9.5 point spread on this one makes it the most difficult line of the week. I think I’ll go with New Orleans but won’t be surprised if I get this one wrong!’

Jaguars @ Giants (+2.5)

This is a trick game for me as the Jaguars look set to continue to have an amazing defence but their offence could still continue to struggle to move the ball through the air given the receiving options available. However, just how much of a turnaround are the Giants capable off and specifically how well can Eli Manning play. This game represents a five-and-a-half-point swing and I’m so tempted by the points but the Jaguars only have to win by a field goal to cover this. I could really regret this but I’m not quite ready to call this one for the Giants just yet as I haven’t seen them.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

‘Jags for me. They’re going to have another good year this year. I’d like to see them at least make the playoffs again.’

Chiefs @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers have all the players you could need but might have a home disadvantage thanks to their status as LA’s other team and the Chiefs are going to have the offensive capacity to stay in most games. This feels like a real toss up pick and should be a great game but the half point just has me backing the Chiefs to keep this one to at least a field goal, particularly when Andy Reid has time to prepare.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

‘Struggling to call this one as I could see it going either way. I’ll go Chargers with the home advantage.’

Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5)

I’m not sure about the Cowboys given the strength of the offence has been shaken by injuries and whilst I feel like in the long run they could be okay, a road game against a Panthers team who are strong at home is not an easy start to the season. The Panthers have their own questions on the offensive line but with them only having to win by field goal to cover then I’m going with the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

‘Road win, but I’ve changed my mind on this line twice since I started looking at it!’

Seahawks @ Broncos (-2.5)

This is a tricky pick for me given that I think that the Seahawks will be more competitive than most seem to think, but they start the season on the road in Denver, which is not an easy place to play. The Broncos have another offensive line that I’m not convince by and this could hamper Case Keenum who had a career year in Minnesota but who also benefitted by having one of the best pairs of receivers in the league so there are big questions about whether he can repeat or improve on that performance. This could turn into a real slug fest and I don’t have a strong opinion either way so given the Broncos home advantage and that they only need a field goal to win I’m reluctantly going with them.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

‘I could do with the Seahawks having a good year this year, especially with Russell Wilson under centre for our Fantasy team! I’ll back them for week one.’

Washington @ Cardinals (-0.5)

I’m really not sure what to expect from the Cardinals with the change in the coaching staff and them starting Sam Bradford at quarterback but the same basically goes for Washington so who knows? This game is basically a pick’em and given that Washington have not started fast in recent years and are on the road I’ll back the Cardinals and the return of David Johnson but I don’t feel strongly about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

‘Another one that could go either way so is only being called on the basis of Arizona being at home!’

Bears @ Packers (-8.5)

The Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and a new defensive coordinator as they welcome a Bears team that have just acquired Khalil Mack and will be radically different on offence this season. The Bears have generated a lot of buzz this offseason but it is unclear how much Mack will play in this game. This is a lot of points and Packers’ head coach Mike McCarthy has a tendency to play conservative with a lead so whilst I’m not saying the Bears will win this game, I do think they can keep it to within nine points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

‘Packers are going to win this one, but not by more than a touchdown so I’m going for the Bears to cover.’

Jets @ Lions (-6.5)

I am really not sure about this game as there are lot of changing factors in this game. Todd Bowles kept the Jets competitive despite a roster depleted of talent but they start this season with a rookie quarterback whilst the Lions may have looked bad in the pre-season game I saw them but it was the final game where no starters played. A touchdown win seems too rich for me at first look but I can’t bring myself to pick a rookie quarterback with questionable receivers on the road in his debut so Lions it is…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

‘J-E-T-S – Lose, Lose, Lose!’

Rams @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Raiders may be at home and getting points but they have a head coach who hasn’t actually coached in nine years and who has just traded away their best player. In the long run it might be a good salary cap move but it is not a move you can look your current team in the eye and say you made them better for this game. This is a tough start for the Raiders and whilst we haven’t seen what tricks Sean McVay has prepared for this season, he has catapulted himself into the discussion of best head coaches in the league after one season and so this is still not enough points for me to pick the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

‘LA win in Monday Night’s game, followed by everyone copying me and jumping on the bandwagon and the odds dropping!!’

Week 1 Picks

10 Sunday Sep 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 1 Picks

With one game done, it is now time for Dan and I to pick the rest of the week 1 games as the season really gets going tonight.

Falcons @ Bears (+7.5)

We saw last season that the Super Bowl hang over for the losing side can be very real, but I am not expecting the Atlanta Falcons to fall off in the way the Carolina Panthers did last year. Their defence continues to improve, but the loss of Kyle Shanahan as offensive co-ordinator will have an effect although there is plenty of talent on that side of the ball.

The Chicago Bears had a curious offseason, trading up one slot to pick a quarterback having just handed out a big contract to free agent Mike Glennon. They can’t be as injured on defence as last season, but whilst I doubt they will win, I’m not prepared to back the Falcons to cover this line on the road with all that’s happened to them, and so it’s time for my first nervous pick of the year.

Gee’s Pick:            Bears
Dan’s Pick:            Falcons

Jets @ Bills (-6.5)

The New York Jets are definitely going through a process of rebuilding, as are the Buffalo Bills, but whilst the Bills have been trading away players as they try to build a new team culture the Jets look to have virtually torn their roster down to the ground to rebuild it. I’m don’t feel extremely confident about this, but I’m backing the Bills to cover this at home against a Jets team who are going to struggle all year.

Gee’s Pick:            Bills
Dan’s Pick:            Bills

Ravens @ Bengals (-2.5)

I would be very worried about the Baltimore Ravens’ offence if I were a fan of that team. We have not seen Joe Flacco in the pre-season thanks to a back injury, their much vaunted offensive line has been in flux and they are starting out on the road, although their defence should be strong again this year. The Cincinnati Bengals have their own questions on at offence tackle, but I like the young talent and depth on defence, and I fancy them to get off to a winning start at home with Andy Dalton having plenty of options on offence.

Gee’s Pick:            Bengals
Dan’s Pick:            Ravens

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

Many have argued that the Pittsburgh Steelers could be the class of the AFC, with the return of dynamic receiver Martavis Bryant to an already scary offence, combined with an improving defence which head coach Mike Tomlin is shaping in his own image, I would not disagree. However, I also like the direction the Cleveland Browns are heading in, and whilst I do not expect them to be pushing for the playoffs, the Browns will cause teams problems this year and I expect them to do better than last season. That said, with first round draft pick Myles Garrett picking up a high ankle sprain on Wednesday, there could well be a feeling of not again surfacing in Cleveland. Still, this is a very high line for a road team and I’m going to back the Browns to cover, I just wish their new pass rusher was starting. I may regret this…

Gee’s Pick:            Browns
Dan’s Pick:            Steelers

Cardinals @ Lions (-2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals travel to Detroit with commentators talking about it being another last chance season for Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and possibly Bruce Arians. Still, I have a lot of faith in the coaching staff of the Cardinals, and the presented reason for Palmer’s improvement in the second half of last season being due to them restricting his number of throws in practice does at least make sense given he is thirty-seven. They face a Lions team that have just signed quarterback Matthew Stafford to a huge contract off the back of several strong years under offensive co-ordinator Jim Bob Cooter, but the defence worries me and I think the Lions could have a tough year as a result. After all, for Stafford to have all those fourth quarter comebacks last year, the Lions had to go into the fourth quarter losing in the first place.

Gee’s Pick:            Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:            Cardinals

Raiders @ Titans (+0.5)

This should be a great game between two developing teams. The Oakland Raiders looked set for a strong showing in the playoffs before Derek Carr broke his leg, but everyone is expecting them to be good again this year. I’m not sure how much running back Marshawn Lynch has left in the tank as he comes out of retirement, but if Lynch cam manage the kind of runs that made him famous for Seattle then that could help open up the field for Carr, but questions remain about the Raiders defence.

The Tennessee Titans took a step forward last season, with Dick LeBeau helping to transform the defence (LeBeau will become the oldest person to call an NFL defence this season and was subject of an excellent MMQB podcast that’s worth looking up) and the offence making exotic smashmouth work for their young quarterback. The running game is often a young quarterback’s best friend, and only time will tell if the receivers that were added to the roster in the offseason help open up the offence for Marcus Mariota.

In a game that is a straight choice, I’m going to back the team who made the playoffs last season but I could regret it. This should be a great game.

Gee’s Pick:            Raiders
Dan’s Pick:            Titans

Buccanneers @ Dolphins

Due to hurricane Irma, this game has been postponed to week 11, meaning both teams will play sixteen straight games in what will be a real test for both teams, but that seems kind of insignificant right now.

Eagles @ Washington (-2.5)

There is a lot of buzz about the Philadelphia Eagles, with the overhaul of their receivers giving hope for the continued development of their second year quarterback Carson Wentz. There is also a belief that the defence will be good this year. I can certainly see the reasons for such hope, but I have not seen it in the flesh yet, whereas Washington have been solid for the last couple of season through their own rebuild. The overhaul of their receivers was curious given the team’s success, and we enter another season with questions about Kirk Cousins’ long term future, but he keeps throwing for over four thousand yards a season. I could very easily regret this, but right now I’m backing Washington to win at home

Gee’s Pick:            Washington
Dan’s Pick:            Eagles

Jaguars @ Texans (-4.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a defence that looks like it should be really good, but the offence worries me a lot. It’s all very well committing to the running game, but setting up the pass with the run is really a myth, and what you need is a convincing threat of being able to be either balanced with run/pass, or flexible enough to wrong foot the defence with one of them being predominant. If the Jaguars just try to bludgeon teams with rookie runner Leonard Fournette they will see endless eight man boxes, and I don’t think anyone feels like Blake Bortles currently has the form to take advantage of this. Facing a Houston Texans defence that looks like it could be one of the best in the league, I expect the Jaguars to struggle. There are questions at quarterback again for the Texans, but this team keeps winning their division, and they will be looking to give their city something to rally around after the recent flooding. I think the Texans will win, and although the line does give me pause, it does not stop me picking the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:            Texans
Dan’s Pick:            Texans

Colts @ Rams (+3.5)

We don’t know for how long the Indianapolis Colts will be without Andrew Luck, and right now they don’t see to have much to hang their hats on without him having struggled in preseason. They travel to LA to face a Rams team that even without Aarond Donald should have enough on defence to contain the current Colts offence. The question for Rams fans will be can Jared Goff develop into a starting quarterback under the guidance of an offensive minded head coach, but I fancy the Rams to win this one, and if I’m getting points at home as well then I’m definitely going to take them. Don’t let me down Rams…

Gee’s Pick:            Rams
Dan’s Pick:            Rams

Seahawks @ Packers (-2.5)

This looks to be game of the week, although the Chiefs and Patriots did a fine job of starting the season on Thursday. Still with the Seattle Seahawks defence matching up against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offence, we have one of best matchups in the league. In recent meetings between these two teams it has tended to be the home team who have won, and whilst in recent years the Packers have got off to sometimes sluggish starts, I fancy them to win this one at Lambeau Field.

Gee’s Pick:            Packers
Dan’s Pick:            Packers

Panthers @ 49ers (+5.5)

The Carolina Panthers are trying to overhaul their offence after their struggles last season and to protect their running quarterback Cam Newton, but despite the addition of Christian McCaffrey as a running back who can catch out of the backfield, Newton has never been the most accurate of short passers and given his should surgery, he has not had a lot of time to work with his new receiving options. I will also be worried about the health of Luke Kuechly all season and so whilst I expect the Panthers to be better this year than last, I’m not sure you can immediately expect them to turn things round in week one. Particularly when they are heading to face a San Francisco 49ers team who are beginning their own transformation under a new GM and head coach. I’m not expecting the 49ers to challenge for the playoffs or anything, but I think they will demonstrate progress and if you are giving me five and a half points at home against a team who I think need to prove themselves again, then I am going to take them.

Gee’s Pick:            49ers
Dan’s Pick:            49ers

Giants @ Cowboys (-4.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have never shied away from controversial players, and we are still not sure what the situation for Ezekiel Elliott will be long term, but he is playing in this game. However, the much vaunted Cowboys offensive line has had a reshuffle and the defence lost a lot of players. I’m not sure that this team are necessarily as locked in to repeat last year’s feats as many seem to think. They welcome a New York Giants team who may have a banged up Odell Beckham, but who have been adding to Eli Manning’s passing options in the offseason, and the defence could be very good again even if they might take a step back after last year’s amazing turnaround. Sill, having beaten the Cowboys twice last season, I’m happy to take the four and a half points and hope for a cover.

Gee’s Pick:            Giants
Dan’s Pick:            Giants

Saints @ Vikings (-3.5)

There are two Monday night games this week, and the first sees the New Orleans Saints travel to face a tough Minnesota Vikings defence. The Saints only need their defence to improve from bottom of the league to respectable for them to be truly competitive given that Drew Brees is still throwing for five thousand yards a year. But this is a tough start to the season for them as the Vikings seem to have already developed a good home advantage in what last year was a new stadium, but the offensive line limited their effectiveness on offence although Sam Bradford still managed a record setting level of accuracy. With a bit more stability this year the Vikings are likely to be very competitive, and I’m backing them in this one at home, although I am looking forward to seeing how the Saints might develop.

Gee’s Pick:            Vikings
Dan’s Pick:            Vikings

Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5)

This final game of the week is giving me some trouble to pick, because the Broncos defence has been a little unsettled in the front seven in the last two seasons, and they have just released TJ Ward in the final round of cuts at the end of preseason. They will be hoping to have developed the offensive line enough to help Trevor Siemian and the offensive be more effective as they were very limited last season. With the Chargers moving to LA, there will be a degree of disruption floating round that certainly hurt the Rams last year, but the roster does appear to turning round. The addition of Joey Bosa gave the Chargers defence a real lift when he played, and certainly when I saw the Chargers in preseason I was impressed.

One of these new head coaches will get a win, but I’m finding it hard to predict which one, and with the Broncos needing to win by four to cover this I’m grabbing the points and hoping the Chargers won’t let me down despite traveling to a difficult place to play.

Gee’s Pick:            Chargers
Dan’s Pick:            Broncos

The Season Starts, Panthers at Broncos, and Week 1 Picks

11 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Andy Janovich, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, CJ Anderson, DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos, Devotae Booker, Greg Olson, Kelvin Benjamin, Luke Kuechly, NFL, Star Lotulelei, Thomas Davis, Trevor Siemian, Von Miller, Week 1 Picks

And so my offseason work meets the start of the regular season as I recap what I have been watching, the season opener and then pick the rest of the week one games.

I have been following the Broncos during the offseason, where their defence has continued to look good despite losing some players, and Trevor Siemian beat out Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch to get the starting quarterback job. With the ongoing saga regarding Von Miller’s contract, the cutting of Mark Sanchez and Ronnie Hillman, GM John Elway has certainly not been afraid to make the big decision and whilst I think there will be some come down from last season with a seventh round pick starting under centre for the first time, I do think the Broncos will be competitive again this season.

The Carolina Panthers travelled to the Denver Broncos to open the season on Thursday, and in a sign of how Dan and my picks are likely to go, the Broncos won after the Panthers missed a last seconds field goal giving us our first losses of the season.

This ended up being a close game with the Panthers starting off well and going into the half with a ten point lead, but ultimately falling short as the Broncos came back in the second half. That the game was close with two such good defences should not be surprise, but I’ll start with the offences.

The Broncos offence looked surprising good for most of the game, although it seemed to function better between the thirty yard lines than it did at getting the ball into the end zone. For the most part Trevor Siemian didn’t look like a rookie quarterback, and certainly he was better than his stat line might suggest. However, whilst for the first interception Siemian failed to get the ball over Star Lotulelei on a screen pass, and the big defensive tackle tipped the ball up for Thomas Davis to make the interception, on the second interception he was hit by Kurt Coleman who had a free run at Siemian on a blitz and hit the QB as he threw enabling Bene Benwikere to intercept the ball. Yet the Broncos were able to move the ball throughout the game, particularly on the ground where CJ Anderson was able to rack up ninety-two yards on twenty carries. Certainly the rookies in the Broncos backfield will look back on their first NFL regular season carries differently with Devnotae Booker fumbling the ball and causing a turnover on his, whilst fullback Andy Janovich took his twenty-eight yards to score the Broncos first touchdown of the season. Even with his modest eighteen of twenty-six completions for one hundred and seventy-eight yards, there were good throws by Siemian and with the defence of the Broncos playing tough they will remain.

The Panthers meanwhile look like the same team as last year when running the ball, with Cam Newton gaining fifty-four yards to complement Jonathan Stewart’s sixty-four and Ted Ginn picking up twenty on an end-around carry. In the passing game Newton was happy to have Kelvin Benjamin back, connecting with him six times on twelve attempts as well as with Greg Olson for seven catches. However, Newton still doesn’t have the prettiest of throwing motions and took a couple of hits that would worry any coach. It is hard to read too much into how they are going to go this season as they were facing another strong Broncos defence, but they did give up three sacks and so the offence line might be a worry again at the tackle spot.

If the Broncos defence didn’t quite pick up from where they did last year, they were still very good with some familiar face making some key plays. They may have been a bit softer against the run, but both Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware got sacks and Chris Harris tipped and intercepted a ball in an impressively athletic play. In fact, there were no signs of Ware having any problems with his back despite what had been said in preseason as he bent low and got round the corner for his solo sack, and he also shared in a second later in the game. With a rookie quarterback, the Broncos will be leaning on this side of the ball and the running attack and for this game that certainly worked.

The Panthers defence looked solid but not spectacular, and whilst you could see flashes of Kuechly’s usual excellences, plus they did generate the interceptions I mentioned earlier, it was not exactly a dominant performance. The rookie corners seemed to hold up okay, but there will be tougher tests down the road and we will just have to see if this group can play up to the standards that were set last year.

Moving back from the opening game, I have two more teams to cover in terms of the preseason before moving on to our picks for the rest of this week’s games.

For the Cincinnati Bengals, apart from a couple of rookies getting injured, things seem to have gone relatively smoothly through the preseason, although AJ Green limping out of the week three game was very nerve racking. This may be misplaced confidence, but I have faith in the system and so despite losing two receivers that played a lot of snaps, the new receivers are already looking the part with Tyler Boyd seeming to fit in seamlessly and rookie free agent Alex Erickson looking effective both out of the slot and as a kick/punt returner, which led to long term Bengal returner Brandon Tate being cut when the Bengals were getting down to seventy-five. The defence is getting older, but there does seem to be youth waiting to come through, but I think the Bengals will be in the playoff hunt, and I just hope the steps Andy Dalton took last year were as much to do with his development as Hue Jackson’s coaching.

The Rams have had an offseason of upheaval as they move to LA and had the Hard Knocks crew filming them. It has not been a brilliant series, but the big worry for the Rams has to be that the first round quarterback that they traded up to get has not even won the backup job for the first game of the season. I am not against bringing on quarterbacks slowly, but this has to be a worry given all they gave up to get Jared Goff. The Rams defence looked to be coming together finally in game three of the preseason, and certainly I am expecting a monster year from Aaron Donald. However, whilst Todd Gurley looks to be a staple of the Rams’ offence, what will be key is whether some of the receivers can step up and offer more in the passing games than they have over recent seasons. I have quite liked the look of rookie receiver Pharoh Cooper, but with Tavon Austin seemingly more a gadget play threat than a true number one receiver, they will need more than a rookie showing flashes to improve that side of the ball. I think the Rams may well be heading for another battle to get above 8-8, but in a tough division they could easily fall short of the playoffs again.

And now on to the rest of my week one picks:

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Falcons haven’t grabbed the imagination, and whilst I like the pedigree of their head coach in Dan Quinn, his side of the ball is not fixed yet and the move of Vic Beasly to strong side linebacker is troubling given that he was supposed to be a first round pass rusher. The offence has struggled for consistency since Matt Ryan lost tight end great Tony Gonzalez, but he does have one of the best receivers in the game in Julio Jones. However, Jones can’t do everything on offence, and the Falcons could do with lowering his workload as he is taking a ton of punishments with the number of catches he is making. They will hope that the signing of Mohamed Sanu will help with this, but the proof will be seen during the season.

The Buccaneers were so keen to keep continuity for their new franchise quarterback Jameis Winson that they fired Lovie Smith and elevated offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach. They have the prize for the worst draft pick when they moved up to draft a kicker in the second round, and he has already missed kicks in the pre-season, generating a lot of extra pressure for the young player. They will be hoping that the supposed better kicking and the improvement of Winston will be enough for them to win more of the close games they lost last season, but as ever only time will tell.

I like the Bucs on the road in this one to be competitive, and possibly even win so I have been tempted into backing them on the road thanks to the extra half point the Falcons are giving up. I hope I’m not mistaken.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Ravens (-3.5)

The Ravens have injury problems already at tight end, but still have a long way to go before they are as banged up as last season. I think this could be a trying season for the Ravens as there are sections of the team that are still old, but I expect them to have more wins that last season and they are never an easy opponent for anyone.

The Bills have been suffering the usual drama that seems to surround a Rex Ryan team, and with injuries to key rookies on defence just being the start to their problems, I have feeling the Bills will be missing the postseason again. I do like Tyrod Taylor, and think it’s likely that the Bill offence will be pretty good again, but whilst Taylor will want to beat the team he started with, I can’t see it happening.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Bears @ Texans (-4.5)

The Texans had a draft that was all about find other receiver to play across from DeAndre Hopkins to help him and free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. The worry for Texans’ fans will be JJ Watt’s back injury, and how he will look in the early part of the season that he was not necessarily expected to see. That said, the word is that Jadeveon Clowney is looking the best he ever has for the Texans and they have to be hoping that without the quarterback carousel they had last season that a strong playoff push is possible.

The Bears are still a way away from such hope, and whilst I think they are heading in the right direction, I don’t think this season will see much of an improvement in terms of wins than last season. The defence is looking like it is beginning to shape up, but with a new offensive coordinator and the ever talented but interception prone Jay Cutler at quarterback, I’m not sure they have enough to cover this spread on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Bengals @ Jets (+1.5)

The Jets have one of the older rosters in the league, and seemed to cost their starting quarterback a lot of practice reps in the offseason in a negotiating tactic that didn’t seem to net them much of a reduction in cost and has to be a bad decision overall. They still have a formidable defensive front, but I think they could slip as a team, particularly as the only AFC East team not to get a game against the Patriots whilst Tom Brady is suspended.

I still have faith that the Bengals opening up the season on the road can win this one despite them having to use new receiving options on offence, and I just hope this one doesn’t bite me for personal reasons.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles have had a torrid offseason, culminating in the trade of their starting quarterback Sam Bradford to the Vikings last weekend. I think I can see what the plan is, and I am very much looking forward to seeing Fletcher Cox let loose in Jim Schwartz’s defence, but with Carson Wentz suddenly leap frogging Chase Daniels to start at quarterback, I think it could be a long season.

The Browns seem to have a renewed vigour with a new front office approach and Hue Jackson as their head coach. They have to be hoping that the Browns’ young players show enough to convince owner Jimmy Haslam to have some faith in the process and stick with it long enough for it to bear fruit.

I am definitely looking forward to this game, and certainly intend to watch it, and I think it will be much more competitive than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Packers @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars are all about this season, with Gus Bradley really needing to reward the Jaguars’ owner’s faith in him with at least a challenge for the playoffs. This is the team that keep getting tipped for a break out year, but with a string of moves and picks on defence to go along with a developing offence I can see it finally happening.

The Packers keep steady with their draft and develop philosophy, but the insistence on relying on receivers to get open with one on one routes last season was frustrating as they weren’t able to capitalise on having probably the best quarterback in the NFL. They look set to take the NFC North this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes.

This is a big swing in points to the Jaguars, and whilst I think the Packers may well win this game, I just fancy the Jaguars to cover. This may bite me as I seem to remember this happening a lot with the Jags last year, but it hasn’t put me off in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Vikings @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans are very much focussing on the running game, with the addition of DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry at running back, and announcing their offensive philosophy as exotic smash-mouth football. If they stick with Mike Mularkey as head coach then at least they will have a consistent plan with an offseason to implement it, and they will certainly hope the running game will help keep second year quarterback Marcus Mariota healthy. There have been some surprising names let go, but clearly Mularkey is focussing on running this team his way and only time will tell if this yields an increase in wins.

The Vikings must still feel they have the team to push for a Super Bowl, or they would not have traded a first round pick and anywhere between a fourth and a second round pick for Sam Bradford. They have a strong defence, and should have won their playoff game last year barring a missed field goal. Their new stadium will see a competitive season thanks to Mike Zimmer’s excellent defence, and he will keep this tem focussed despite losing their franchise quarterback to a horrible injury, but it will be an uphill battle all the way. Still I expect them to win an ugly game against the Titan, which will be something of a throwback given the likely focus on running the ball that both teams will display.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chargers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs defence looks to be struggling with injuries to their key pass rushers, but I still expect this team to at the top of the division, pushing for a playoff place and more. For all of his clock management issues, Andy Reid is a really good football coach and I expect this team to be there or there about come the end of the season.

The Chargers are not nearly as stable, and have not managed to win consistently despite having one of the better quarterback in the game. For a lot of last season their offence only functioned because of how quickly Philip Rivers could get rid of the ball, and with their first round pick holding out for nearly the entirety of the pre-season I worry about what kind of year Rivers will have in terms of wins.

I don’t think the Chargers are going to get off to a winning start, but I’m not sure the Chiefs will run away with this game either.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Raiders @ Saints (-1.5)

The big question f or me this year is whether the Saints defence can improve enough for them to be competitive, and whilst it will be hard for them to be as bad as last year, there were so many holes and it has been such a problem for the Saints that I see them falling short of the playoffs again this year.

The Raiders seem poised to make a push for the playoffs, and whilst I’m worried that this may be the same kind of hope as the Jaguars that doesn’t quite materialise, they have been drafting well and with some good free agent signings for the offensive line and defence, I do expect them to pushing for the playoffs and look forward to seeing if they get there or not. I do expect them to win this one though.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Dolphins @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks look to be set for another strong season despite the defence losing more depth, and an offensive line that remains a huge question. The development of quarterback Russel Wilson will need to continue as he gets handed full control of the offence with the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, but certainly his form at the end of last season will give them hope.

The Dolphins come into this year with a more coherent plan for the offence, but the back seven of their defence worries me and I think they may well fall short of the playoffs this year. I’m picking the Dolphins to cover as the Seahawks are giving away a lot of points, but I don’t expect them to win and I think it could be a long season for the fans in Miami.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Giants @ Cowboys (-3.5)

It might be time for Tony Romo to retire, but certainly Jerry Jones is having none of it, and at least in Dak Prescott they look to have a capable backup and very possibly a future starter. The defence is still a worry for me, but with that offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott the Cowboys will be looking to dominate in the running game and will give the Cowboys a fighting chance.

The Giants made a lot of moves to shore up their defence, which does not fill me with a lot of hope as the winners of free agency rarely seem to do that well when the season rolls around. This is one of those wait and see teams, but with the all the problems they had on the roster last season, I think there is more wrong than just Tom Coughlin who the owners were clearly pointing the finger at when they fired him and stuck with everyone else. I really think there is more to it than that.

We will have to see how this game goes, and I don’t feel that strongly, but I’m backing the Cowboy reluctantly at home as I just don’t trust the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Lions @ Colts (-5.5)

Everyone is expecting a better season for the Colts, but whilst I prefer the intentions of their draft, the line hasn’t necessarily gelled yet and I’m still not sure where the pass rush will come on defence or how they’ll cope without the injured corner Vontae Davis. I’m not saying there season won’t be better, but I’m certainly not ready to pencil them in for a division win just yet.

The Lions are a team in flux, but I quite like the direction of their offence with Jim Bob Cooter changing things when he became offensive coordinator last season, and I think the pairing of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones at receiver will do well even if no one can replace Calvin Johnson. The defence hopes to be healthier at defensive tackle, but I’m not sure how much of a push this team will make overall. However, I’m certainly not ready to back the Colts giving away 5.5 points yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Patriots @ Cardinals (-5.5)

The Cardinals are in win now mode, and with the additions of Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche they look to have an improved pass rush for a defence that already blitzed as much as anyone in the league. You know that a Bruce Arians offence will be taking plenty of shots downfield, and running back David Johnson will be looking to build on his excellent rookie season. I think they will be in contention at the end of the year, with the only questions being about keeping ageing quarterback Carson Palmer healthy and hoping there aren’t any big game legacies from last year’s playoff loss.

The Patriots are everyone’s tip to win the AFC East despite Tom Brady being suspended for four games. Certainly the addition of Martellus Bennett as a second tight end has excited people about the Patriots double tight end sets for when Brady returns. However, this is pretty much as tough an opening game for this team as they could have been set. I think that Belichick will win out in the end, but it is not unusual for his teams to start slow and with a quarterback making his first NFL regular season start I think the Patriots start off with a loss, even if there won’t be too many more to follow.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Steelers @ Washington (+3.5)

Washington really gained momentum at the end of last year to win their division, and with another solid draft and the signing of Josh Norman, I expect them to be competitive in their division again this year as Kirk Cousins tries to earn himself a franchise quarterback’s contract.

When the Steelers have all their players on offence they are truly terrifying, and their defence is beginning to take shape, but I do think the suspensions will take their toll early. They could easily make me look stupid as Antonia Brown is the best receiver in the game, but I’m not sure that they will run away as winners in this game and so I’m taking the home underdog to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Rans @ 49ers (+2.5)

The 49ers woes will continue into this year if for no other reason than it takes time to rebuild a roster. It will be fascinating to see how Chip Kelly does and what he has learnt from what happened in Philidelphia, but I could very easily see the 49ers picking first at next year’s draft.

The Rams will want to be making fans in LA by winning, and despite the worries that I laid out earlier, I think that they will win their opener in San Francisco.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Week 1: Picks and Excuses

10 Thursday Sep 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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NFL, Week 1 Picks

It has been a thoroughly frustrating couple of weeks as I’ve made it a little over half the games I wanted to see of the preseason, but my actual paying jobs has been kicking me round the place and sadly this endeavour does not pay my mortgage.

I always try to bring you things I’ve seen or my opinions rather than parroting conventional opinion so I shall dive straight into a preview of week one, and the return of the picks competition from Dan, who I think is still smarting from his narrow loss last season. Once more we’ll be taking the lines from the ESPN Pick ‘Em game and I will be using this to judge how I feel about the game.

Remember, the default line between two equal teams is -3 to the home team

Steelers @ Patriots (-3.5)

All I want to say about deflate gate, and the ongoing saga of NFL administrative incompetence is that we now have an extremely motivated all time great quarterback starting in the opening game of the season. The defensive overhaul in the offseason, shedding the high cost secondary and appearing to focus instead on rushing the passer, is the kind of tactical flexibility that Coach Belichick is known for and so I am less concerned about this than I would be for many other teams. Time will tell if they can pull it off, but I for one will want to see an extended downturn before I believe it.

The Steelers have a terrifying offence, but a huge part of that is on paper only this week given Le’Veon Bell’s suspension, and we saw in the playoffs how much trouble Bell’s absence can cause. Add to this the injury of Maurkice Pouncey and you do start to have concerns about what should be the better side of the ball. The Steelers’ secondary worries me, and as they transition to a more cover-2 based scheme, which is what Mike Tomlin is more usually associated with, I think they will suffer again this season on the defensive side of the ball as they work things through.

I don’t think there can be too many places that a team in this situation would less like to visit than Foxborough so I’m going for the Patriots to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Colts @ Bills (+2.5)

The Bills certainly increased their media presence with the hire of Rex Ryan as their head coach, but what he will be able to do with their already fearsome defence shall be fascinating to watch. The question will be if Greg Roman can get enough out of the offence to get them into the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Having won the quarterback competition, it will be interesting to see if Tyrod Taylor can give them the play that this team have been searching for over recent years, and make the most out of second year receiver Sammy Watkins.

The Colts have the opposite problem in that they have their quarterback, and a few other good players, but I’m still not convinced by the way this team is run despite the pair of shellackings they gave the Bengals last year. In Andrew Luck they have a player who can carry a team on his back, but with plenty of other areas to develop I’m not sure that a receiver in the second round was really necessary given their existing depth and issues on both lines. I think they are in with a very good chance of winning their division again this season, and may well win this game but I just have a feeling that the Bills will keep this one close.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Packers @ Bears (+5.5)

The Packers offseason was what we expected, Ted Thompson knows what he is doing, and so no one was surprised when they held onto their own, drafted solidly and will again be a contender this year. Such is the faith in the infrastructure in Green Bay that people are remaining calm about the loss of Jordy Nelson for the season to a torn ACL. There is depth at receiver, and so whilst there is no doubt that it will hurt the Packers, Rodgers is such a good quarterback that as long as their depth doesn’t get tested too much further then the Packers should be fine. It will be interesting to see whether the Clay Mathews experiment at inside linebacker becomes a staple this year as it certainly helped them last year, but the return BJ Raji could also help here as well.

The Bears are a team in transition after a mess of a season last year, but whilst I would not want Jay Cutler as my franchise quarterback, given the dysfunction that was surrounding the team and coaching staff last season you have to hope he won’t be that bad again. That said, they have lost Brandon Marshall and it remains to be seen whether the line has improved. Meanwhile the defence is transitioning schemes and it would seem to me that it will be a multi year project to turn them round. I have faith that John Fox will at least return this team to respectability, and he has a great record in improving defences, but I think it will take time. I am sure that John Fox will want to make a statement against the old enemy in his first game in charge, particularly as it is in soldier field, but I just don’t think they have the players to do it this early in the project.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Browns @ Jets (-3.5)

The Jets are an interesting proposition this year as I have a great deal of respect for Todd Bowles, the offseason looked to be building nicely and I think they are going to have a really good defence this season having put together a secondary to go with their great front seven whilst somehow stealing what for many was the best player in the draft. However, the recovery took the most Jets like of stumbles when before he could he even take a snap of the 2015 regular season, Geno Smith’s jaw was broken by a team mate with a locker room sucker punch. Once more it is a familiar story for Jets defence, a great defensive coach with a really good defence, and a questionable offence.

That said, they welcome a Browns team who have a turgid set of skills players on offence behind a good offensive line that have two players who would start on pretty much any other team’s offensive line. I’m really not sure what the plan is for this team’s development, and they certainly have missed on an awful lot of first round picks recently. Coach Pettine is a really good defensive coach, but this is another team who have too much dysfunction to succeed consistently. I think a lot of their problems on offense followed the Alex Mack injury, but it says something about a team when the only quarterback who has played for them recently with a winning record, and a native of Cleveland, is now playing for another team. The fans of Cleveland have been so loyal to this team, and deserve better, but I think this will be another season of frustration for the city.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Chiefs @ Texans (-1.5)

This is one of those games that I have gone back and forth on.

I have been watching the Texans on hard knocks all season and have seen the first three of their preseason games. It’s not exactly a secret that I’m a huge fan of JJ Watt, and I would love to see Jadeveon Clowney make a difference this season, but a lot is resting on the performance of Brian Hoyer at quarterback, but having watched him play I feel that you can win with him and this team has more around him than the Browns team of recent years. It remains to be seen if they can cope with the loss of Arian Foster, who is hugely important to them when fit, but in JJ Watt they have one of the few defensive players who can make enough of a difference to turn a game on his own.

The Chiefs are a solid football team that in case you hadn’t heard, struggled getting the ball to their outside receivers, but they have strong defence with a pair of great pass rushing linebackers and one of my favourite defensive tackles who I am very worried about as back injuries are never easy to come back and I really want to see Dontari Poe causing havoc in the middle of the Chiefs defence again. They also have one of the leagues great rushing backs in Jamaal Charles. I’m really looking forward to seeing them in London this year and I think that they should be in the playoff hunt again this year.

I can see this being a tight game between two teams in that tier just below the teams you expect to make the playoffs, but I just have more faith in the Chiefs as a team and Alex Smith as a quarterback. I’ve changed my mind multiple times as I’ve written about both teams, including during this conclusion, but last year taught me to trust my first instinct in cases like this so with a great deal of worry, not to mention betrayal of my man crush, I will reluctantly back the Chiefs in this one. I would not put money on this game!

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Seahawks @ Rams (+3.5)

The Seahawks have had an interesting offseason, dominated by contract talks with their starters and in particular Russell Wilson. They also pulled off a trade to bring in Jimmy Graham, and whilst Kam Chancellor is still holding out, there is an awful lot of talent on this roster. It may take them time to get going as a number of important players are coming back from injury, but the Seahawks once again have to be considered one of the elite challengers in the NFC. It will be interesting to see how they transition from a team who can pack their roster thanks to having a cheap quarterback playing at a high level, to one that has to pay that quarterback, but for now I have faith that Pete Carroll will be able to keep this team on the right track.

I’m really not sure what to make of the Rams this year. Their defensive front looked terrifying on paper last year, but between a scheme shift and injury, it took a long time for them to get going, but in the offseason they managed to increase their depth with the addition of Nick Fairley. However, I’m not at all sure of how Nick Foles is going to play, and they are awfully banged up at running back right now. I think that Jeff Fisher will pull out the stops to give them another solid season, but I’m not sure they will turn the corner, and whilst they usually play the Seahawks tough at home, I have to go with the visiting team in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dolphins @ Redskins (+2.5)

There is real hope for Dan and his Dolphins team, but whilst I’m not sure I would have invested the amount of money in a non quarterback that the Dolphins gave Ndamukong Suh, I can understand why they did. They have a young promising quarterback who is still on his rookie deal, and Suh is a hard worker who will set the tone for that defence and help a pass rush and run defence that went missing down the stretch. I can also see Ryan Tannerhill taking another step forward, in fact I’m fairly sure it was the progress he made in his first year under Bill Lazer as Offensive Coordinator that kept Joe Philburn his job. There was talk that this was the year that they could perhaps topple the Patriots in the AFC East, but now that Brady’s ban has been overturned, I think it could be a tough ask.

That said, there are worse places to start your campaign than in Washington. What started off with a solid draft and a promising looking approach to the offseason has once again become bogged down in the status and play of Robert Griffin. This is another team where there is a continued stretch of dysfunction and I think that this is going to be another long season for the fans in Washington.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Panthers @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars have been building through youth for a while, and it feels like this was supposed to be the year that some of the promise finally began to show through. So it was a real kick in the teeth when their first round pass rusher Dante Fowler didn’t even make it through OTAs before tearing his ACL and being done for the season. Their big free agent signing Julius Thomas is battling some combination of a broken finger and tendon issues, and so I would imagine that Jaguar fans could well be fearing the worst. However, I still feel they are heading in the right direction, and for Gus Bradley it is probably a do or be fired season.

It didn’t feel like the Panthers of this season were too much different from the team of last season until they lost Kelvin Benjamin for the season to another of this preseason’s rash of ACL tears. There seems to have been more rookie wide receivers make an in impact in their rookie years recently, much like Benjamin did last year, but whilst I can see the logic of drafting a big target as Devin Funchess as a target for Cam Newton who is not the most accurate of quarterbacks, I don’t think he is the kind of polished receiver prospect you would want to be relying on to fill the void having lost your number one receiver. The defence will play well again this season, but I have a feeling that this game will be tight, and that the Jaguars will cover at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Lions @ Chargers (-2.5)

I’m really not sure about either of these teams.

The Chargers appear to have secured the future service s of Phillip Rivers, and there is no way that their offensive line can be as beaten up as they were last season so the offence can hopefully recapture some of their best form from last season once Antonio Gates comes back from his four game PED suspension. However, apart from Eric Weddle, there just aren’t a lot of defensive players that really inspire me and I wonder how they are going to cope this year. That said, if Rivers can sustain his early season form behind a healthier line then this could be a team to keep an eye on.

The Lions will be a team to watch, but possibly for different reasons. Last season’s return to the playoffs was brought about by a new disciplined approach that Head Coach Jim Caldwell was able to bring to the team in his first year in charge. However, this is a very different roster than the one last year as not only did they lose Ndamukong Suh, but lost Nick Fairley, and it will be interesting to see how their defence rebuilds itself around Haloti Ngata. Having watched Ngata over the years in division games, I know what a good player he has been, but a gap controlling 3-4 nose tackle, even one as good as Ngata, does not really replace the two players the Lions have lost. I also have questions about Matthew Stafford, who never seems to win the big games when they count. If Calvin Johnson can stay healthy, then a pairing of him and Golden Tate will be one of the more fearsome starting receiver pairs in the NFL, but there are questions at running back and the offensive line has to do a better job than last year if this team are going to build on the previous season’s success.

I’m not convinced by Stafford on the road, and so despite the points I am going to back Phillip Rivers at home to get the job done with his offence.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Saints @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals stumbled into the playoffs last year despite the carnage at quarterback, but have lost Todd Bowles to the Jets as Head Coach, and there are still questions about their running backs and offensive line. The return of Carson Palmer should help the offence if he can stay healthy. The real test will be how they adjust on defence to the shift in personnel in the secondary and their new defensive coordinator, but after what Bruce Arians and his staff managed to do last season, I have faith that they will be competing for a playoff place once again this season.

The Saints on the other hand, are a team that’s in flux and I have mixed feelings about them. It was a surprise to see them trade away Jimmy Graham, the tight end that has been the centre piece in what they have done in the last few years, but it appears that Sean Payton is trying to take some of the load off Drew Brees’s shoulders and if anyone can pull this off successfully it is Payton. However, this is also a team who have been badly managing their cap for years, and I worry about their talent on defence. I’m not sure Roby Ryan is going to be able to turn it round this year, which could make things very tough for a team trying to run the ball more to extend the career of their great, but aging quarterback.

The Saints really struggled last season, and I’m not sure how much better they are going to be this one so whilst I’m a little nervous about the pick. I’ll back the Cardinals to be too strong in their home opener against the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Bengals @ Raiders (+3.5)

After years of horror, there was actually some hope for Raiders fans last season. Khalil Mack shone in a linebacking group that I thought was coming together nicely, and Derek Carr did enough to suggest he may be their quarterback for years to come. It will be interesting to see what effect Jack Del Rio will have on the team, but in drafting Amari Cooper the Raiders are clearly trying to give Carr every chance to succeed. They were a tough team to play at the end of last season, and their fans will be hoping that this continues into this season.

Then Bengals look to be loaded on offence this year, with a number of players back from injury and once again it will be playoff win or bust for them. They have a tough schedule and this is not exactly the start Marvin Lewis would have wanted, but whilst I still have some concerns about the defence, the pass rush looked markedly better in preseason, and whilst it was a blow to lose Terrance Newman, you can see why the Bengals did as first round picks Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard have looked good as they work into the rotation alongside Adam Jones and Leon Hall.

I think the Raiders will make this a tough game, and the points give me a slight pause, but the optimist in me sees the Bengals taking care of business this year, and getting off to a good start in Oakland.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Ravens @ Broncos (-4.5)

The Broncos have had an interesting offseason as John Elway has brought in a coach in Gary Kubiak that he knows very well, and whom he believes will make sure that the Broncos go out with a fight rather than a whimper. The nervousness will still surround how much Peyton Manning has left, and whether he will be more willing to relax his legendary work habits to protect his body a bit more. Between the scheme change, and the rebuilt offensive line there are a lot of questions, and it hasn’t helped that as good as Elway has been in free agency, the draft has not yielded a lot of high quality players recently. That said, the defence looks to have improved and if Manning can’t live up to his legendary past, it appears that he might not have to as the defence has the tools to make sure that he doesn’t have to score thirty points a game to win. I think they should have another competitive season, but there is going to be a hint of the circus surrounding this team until Manning finally calls it a day.

The Ravens are now on their third offensive coordinator in three years, and although I only saw a little bit of them in preseason, their receivers worry me and at some point all this change has to catch up with them. They are a really well run franchise, and have been managing to re-tool effectively around Joe Flacco’s enormous contract. Their defence front continues to be excellent, but I’m not sure that their secondary that was truly awful at the end of last season due to injury, will be fully back to where they want it this season. I expect another black and blue AFC North battle this year, and the Ravens are going to be there or there abouts, but I just expect the Broncos to take care of business at home on opening day.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Titans @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This is the battle of first round rookie quarterbacks. The Buccaneers were seen by some as a trendy sleeper pick last season, but this team who had apparently won in the free agency race had a truly rotten season. Despite a trade to get Logan Mankins and signing swing tackle Anthony Collins who had always played well for the Bengals, the o-line didn’t gel and the only bright spot was the play of Mike Evans who managed to mass over one thousand yards in his first season in the NFL. Things however, were not a lot better on defence, and it is a sign of the offseason problems that both high price free agents the Bucs prised from the Bengals are no long the team with Anthony Collins being cut and is a free agent, whilst Michael Johnson has returned to the Bengals and is still being paid by the Bucs. However, a new season brings new hope in the shape of first round pick Jameis Winston, a player who can make all the throws, but was constantly questions about off the field issues during the draft process. Time will tell if he was a good pick, but I’ve not heard too much about the Bucs this offseason and there is a lot to put right.

The Titans were one of the most anonymous teams in the NFL last season, but were the source of constant speculation during the offseason before they finally picked quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was not an obvious fit for Ken Wisenhunt’s offensive system, but there has been a real buzz surrounding him this preseason. The addition of Dick LeBeau and his famous zone blitz to the coaching staff is a fascinating move that in combination with possibly finding a franchise quarterback seems to be giving this team an identity. The proof will be in how they perform this season, but the Titans traditionally have been better than their recent malaise and I’m not sure what the Bucs have done to get an extra half point at home. I have a feeling that the Titans could well pull this game out and win the battle of the rookies.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Giants @ Cowboys (-5.5)

The Cowboys have had an interesting offseason. I can see the logic in them not resigning running back DeMarco Murray to a huge contract given that he’s not had a history of staying fit and had basically four hundred and fifty touches last season. This is particularly understandable as whilst their restrained draft strategy has yielded one of the best offensive lines in the league, their cap management has been a mess and they only had the money to resign one of their big free agents and it really had to be Dez Bryant. However with the o-line still looking excellent, a healthier Tony Romo it is not the offense that worries me about the Cowboys. I was not the only one who was expecting their defence to be a disaster last season, but somehow coordinator Rod Marinelli managed to bring together a unit that did enough for the Cowboys to get into the playoffs. However, whilst the pass rush will be improved with the risk that unfortunately paid of in their signing of number 76 as his suspension was reduced to four games, the secondary worries me, particularly with the injury to their cornerback Orlando Scandrick who is out for the season.

The Giants made some progress on offence last year as Eli Manning bedded into the new offensive system of Ben McAdo, but the real bright spot was the play of Odell Beckham. Unfortunately, that might be all the Giants fans have to hold onto this season as there are questions about their offensive line, and a real dearth of talent on the defence. This wasn’t helped by the firework accident that Jason Pierre-Paul suffered that resulted in him voluntarily having his index finger amputated in an attempt to be ready for the season, a decision that doesn’t seem to have paid off.

I’m not sure whether the Cowboys are going to repeat their performance of last year, but at home I think they have more than enough to cover these points against the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Eagles @ Falcons (+0.5)

The Falcons were a mess last season, not helped by a wave of injuries to their offensive line, they finished 6-10 and it was time for a change. With a franchise quarterback in place ownership chose to go for defensive in their decision to bring in Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. This would seem to make sense as the Falcons defence, and in particular their pass rush was a mess, and by giving Kyle Shanahan the best probably the best quarterback of his NFL career the offence should take care of itself. I’m not as familiar with their offseason moves as I should be, but it will be fascinating to see what aspects of the Seattle defence he brings with him as he tries to turn round the defence, and what impact his rookie pass rusher Vic Beasley will have.

If the Falcons have been a bit quiet in the offseason, at least to my eyes, the Eagles have been making all kinds of headlines. No one can accuse Chip Kelly of being hesitant with his knew front office role, and whilst I would question some of the ways he has chosen to spend his money, there is not doubting his talent as a coach. The team has looked excellent in the preseason and they are favourites to be challengers in the NFC. There is the question of whether Sam Bradford can stay healthy, but I shall look forward to finally seeing this team on coaching tape, and I think they should win this one comfortably, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Vikings @ 49ers (-2.5)

The turmoil of the offseason for the 49ers has left their fans reeling. With the loss of so many players to retirement, this a remade roster, and the hiring of internal candidate Jim Tomsula was not the kind of signing to excite the fans. There is still a good level of talent on the team and so I do not expect the atrocious season that some were predicting, but it is going to be a tough year. The big questions are whether this team will be able to remake the defence having lost so many players, and whether spending time with Kurt Warner will have helped Colin Kaepernick make the developmental steps that are needed for him to progress as a player. It will also be interesting to see how Jarryd Hayne fairs having made the roster, but when he has the ball in his hands the Australian rugby league player is a dynamic runner, and a natural punt returner.

The Vikings are so many peoples’ sleeper team this year that they don’t even count as a surprise any more. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has really looks to have taken another step in his development this preseason, and Mike Zimmer is continuing his excellent run with defences. The hire of Norv Turner as an offensive coordinator seemed like a really smart decision last year, and I think the Zimmer/Turner combination is going to continue to get results this season. I feat they may just miss out on the playoffs, but this is a team on the rise and I think they start with a win against the recovering 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

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