It must be a strange week to have your family running round doing Christmas things whilst you prepare for a game of football, particularly if you’re playing on Christmas day, but time to get our picks sorted for the week as I do my own preparations. It appears that there is always one more thing to do…

Gee:      Week 15   9-7                     Overall   106-118
Dan:      Week 15   7-9                     Overall   102-122

Falcons @ Panthers (+2.5)

The Panthers are coming off a win against Washington having largely played better in recent weeks, although things are still not quite right on offence. However, the Falcons are on a real roll at the moment and so despite giving away points on the road, I am going to back them against the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Dolphins @ Bills (-3.5)

The Dolphins are finding a way to win this season, whilst the Bills have been erratic but are also coming off a win from last week. The Bills got theirs off the back of another strong running performance from LeSean McCoy where he racked up one hundred and fifty-three yards, hitting one hundred and fifty yards for the second time this season. This is not a great sign for the Dolphins who rank twenty-second in rush defence by DVOA, but I have more trust in the Dolphins and think they will at least keep this game closer than four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ Bears (+2.5)

After their poor loss against the Panthers, Washington have to win this game to keep their outside shot at making the playoffs alive, but the Bears are a tougher prospect than their record might suggest. There are some signs on defence that there are things to build on, and Matt Barkley has earned himself another contract somewhere in the NFL, if only as a backup quarterback. However, I think that Washington are the better team and so once again I find myself giving up points on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Chargers @ Browns (+6.5)

The San Diego Chargers rank one place lower than the Bills by DVOA, but are on a three game losing streak as they travel to Cleveland. I have been saying for a couple of weeks that the Browns best chance of a win would be this game, although no team is going to want to be the one who loses to this Browns team. However, getting this number of points is tempting, and with the Chargers coming across the country to play in the cold I see a low scoring game, that makes me think the Browns will cover even if they don’t win.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)

The Vikings had Adrian Peterson return last week, but things took a dramatic turn for the worse as they lost heavily to the Colts with Andrew Luck throwing for two hundred and fifty yards with touchdowns. Things don’t get any easier this week as they are on the road to face a resurgent Green Pay in Lambeau Field. I think that the Vikings will likely lose this game, but the Packers only just beat the Bears by three and this line has me worried, I want to pick the Vikings but their capitulation has me worried and so whilst I don’t expect a repeat performance, I can’t bring myself to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars may have an interim head coach, but I’m not sure how much of a boost they will get given their standard of play all season, after all it is not like you can fix Blake Bortles’ throwing mechanics in a week, especially as he’s carrying a shoulder injury. So fans of the Titans might dread this pick as I always seem to be wrong when it comes to the Titans this year, but I see them winning this one fairly easily and covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Jets @ Patriots (-16.5)

This is a tough one for me to predict as the Jets have lost two of their last four games badly, including to the Dolphins last week who were starting their backup quarterback. Yet this is a huge line and as good as the Patriots are, I can’t quite bring myself to pick them in this case. I hope that I’m not making a mistake, but I can’t bring myself to back a team to win by seventeen points, there’s just too much to go wrong!

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Colts @ Raiders (-3.5)

This is a confusing game to me as the Colts are coming off a huge win against the Vikings, whilst the Raiders have had more than their share of close/comeback wins this season. The Colts could follow up with another good performance, but I am not convinced about the way their team is constructed and so I am going to put my faith in the team with the better record and hope the extra half point at home doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

So the Rams get a chance to play having had a decent amount of time under their interim head coach, but I’m really not sure how much can be done about their offence, which had misfired all season. The problem is that the 49ers have hardly looked much better having lost their last twelve. The Rams have at least won some games, and have recognisable players on defence that are good, but a three and a half point line looks like a lot when you consider their record. In the end I do have more faith in the players the Rams have and so very reluctantly I’m backing the Rams to cover this line at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Buccaneers @ Saints (-2.5)

So partly this game is about which Saints team is going to turn up, the one who has scored more than thirty points seven times this season and who beat the Cardinals last week, or the team who lost to the Buccaneers two weeks ago and who could only manage eleven points. I’m not sure that they will struggle that badly again this week, but having kept the game close against the Cowboys, I think the Buccaneers will get back to winning ways this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-8.5)

This is a hard game for me to pick as the Cardinals have been hard to predict other than David Johnson is going to put up monster numbers, whilst the Seahawks look to be heading into the playoffs as a dangerous but wounded team. No one would fancy playing the Seahawks at home, but they are possibly not the same team right now thanks to injury and so it is hard for me to predict them to win by nine.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Bengals @ Texans (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to expect from the Bengals in the offseason, but the lack of discipline last week was both familiar and deeply frustrating. They have kept games close this season, but have failed to capitalise and this week they travel to Houston to face a Texans team who benched Osweiler on the second quarter last week and looked better for it. With Savage at the helm of the offence, and Jadeveon Clowney beginning to terrify quarterbacks this season I think the Texans might well get the win. I will be delighted to be wrong on this one, and certainly the Bengals have kept a lot of games close, but having lost to the Steelers last week and with the Texans at home I think I back the Texans to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Ravens @ Steelers (-5.5)

This is the big game of the week for me as the result will go a long way to settling who will win the AFC North and this is a real rivalry. The Steelers passing game hasn’t looked quite right in recent weeks, but Le’Veon Bell has been carrying the load for the Steelers’ offence whilst the defence does enough to win. The Ravens are struggling on offence, but have a defence that ranks second in the league by DVOA and first against the run. I see this has being a tough close game and so when I’m getting this many points I feel I have to pick the Ravens.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Broncos @ Chiefs (-4.5)

I am really not sure about this game as there appears to be an understandable divide in the Broncos dressing room between a defence that ranks first in the league by DVOA despite a rushing defence that is only twenty-fourth, and an offence that has misfired badly all season. The Chiefs wobbled against the Titans last week, but could have easily won that game and will be looking for revenge. They have the speed to make plays on offence, but the line worries me in this game. It took overtime and a field goal to separate them last time, and I just can’t quite bring myself to back the Chiefs to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Lions @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Cowboys got back to winning ways last week against the Buccaneers after their blip against the Giants, but this week they welcome a Lions team who have specialised in late game heroics. I’m not sure that the Lions can win this game, but I suspect that Matthew Stafford will have an easier time indoors in Dallas with his injured finger than he had in New York the previous week, and I’m just not sure if the Cowboys are going to win by eight or more when they have only managed that twice in the last eight weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Well here we are with this week’s pick, have picked a slender two pick lead last week, I hope I can keep the momentum up.

Gee:      Week 14   10-6                   Overall   97-111
Dan:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   95-113

Browns @ Bills (-9.5)

I think you would have to have a heart of stone to not want the Browns to get a win, but they are running out of time and it is hard to see where they might get it. The Bills have struggled on defence, but have a running game that ranks first in the league by DVOA yet has been reliant on LeSean McCoy. I’m not sure that the Browns can win this game on the road, and it has been a while since they have been within ten points, but laying this many points as the Bills worries me and so in the end I am very nervously backing the Browns to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Packers @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears have such a long list of injuries, but it does look like there are things that can be built upon next season. This week they welcome a Packers team coming off a big win against the Seahawks. The Packers need to win all their remaining games to have a chance at getting to the playoffs, but whilst I can’t predict if they can pull that off or not, I think they will win this one. It’s just a question of whether they can cover these points, but in a season of varying performance levels, the Packers are look like they are coming together and so I think they will.

Gee’sPick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Steelers @ Bengals (+3.5)

This is a grudge game, and a chance for the Bengals to act as spoilers in a season that has fallen well short of where they hoped to have been. The Steelers are still chasing the playoffs, but injury has hit their receivers and they can’t expect two hundred and ninety-eight combined yards from Le’Veon Bell every week. I expect this to be a close game, and as the one with the most meaning for the Bengals, I just fancy them to cover getting three and a half points at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:     Steelers

Lions @ Giants (-4.5)

The Giants have been playing really well on defence in a rare case of offseason free-agents working out, but they have been struggling a little on offence. The Lions have been relying on Matthew Stafford so much this season, but the big questions for them will be how his injured finger will affect his ability to throw the ball. I am sure that Lions fans will be waiting for the wheels to fall off, and that might well be the case, but a five point win just feels like too much to ask for me. Although I could be very wrong about that…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Giants

Titans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The Chiefs keep finding a way to win, and are making a serious case to be considered the best team in the AFC. This week they welcome a Titans team that have made serious steps forward from last season, but one I am finding serially hard to predict week to week. This feels like a lot of points to me, but I’m not sure the Titans, for all their progress this year, are ready for this game in Arrowhead stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Chiefs

Colts @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Colts have been so up and down this season, and lost a key divisional game last week that likely puts them out of the playoff hunt. This week they travel to Minnesota to face a team that possibly think they are still in the playoff hunt, but who have been fighting through injuries all season. In recent weeks their defence has returned to their early season form, yet the big question is whether their offence can do enough to win. This makes the Vikings needing to win by five just that bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

Eagles @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens’ loss to the Patriots looks closer by the score than it actually was as it took successive punt miscues for the Ravens to get the chance to score. The Eagles however, are on a four week losing streak having had their season slip away from the early promise it showed. However, they did keep the game close when they hosted Washington last week, but they are on the road in Baltimore against a much tougher defence in this game, and so I seem them struggling to move the ball. The offence of the Ravens does make me worry, and in the end I’m not confident enough that they will cover this line to pick the Ravens, even if I think they will win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)

I face a similar dilemma in this game as I expect the Texans who have a good defence and a struggling offence to win at home, but the Jaguars are a much worse team than the Eagles, or at least are in terms of performance. More worrying, the last game that the Jaguars kept closer than seven was against the Texans back in week ten, so I’m really not sure what to do in this game. I am tempted by the points, but in the end with the Jaguars having little to play for and the Texans in a fight for the division, I am backing the Texans to cover this line, although I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

49ers @ Falcons (-13.5)

The Falcons’ number one offence by DVOA host the 49ers thirtieth ranked defence, and even without an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu the Falcons racked up a big win against the Rams last week. They were given some points by the Rams offence, but it is hard to see the 49ers doing much better in this one, and so I’m going to take the unusual step of laying the 13.5 as the Falcons are at home. It does make me a little nervous, but if you look through the year, of the twelve games the 49ers have lost, half of them have been by over fourteen points so it is not so odd they might do it again on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Saints @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Saints offence seems to have struggled over the last couple of weeks and this week they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. I’m not sure what is likely to happen in this game as the Cardinals have struggled all year, whilst the Saints have been up and down. By DVOA the Saints are a better team, but having narrowly lost to the Dolphins in the pouring rain last week and beaten Washington the week before, I’m going to back the Cardinals at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Broncos (+3.5)

This is an interesting line to me as the Patriots looked like you might be able to get at them even before they lost Rob Gronkowski for the year. However, Tom Bray has been managing without his favourite target thanks to the Patriots famed flexibility of game-plan and a much improved offensive line. However, Brady’s record is not that great in Denver and the Broncos’ pass defence has looked as strong as ever. The problem is that the Broncos offence has not been playing well and you can run the ball against them. I am strongly tempted by the Broncos getting points at home, but can’t discount how the Patriots keep finding a way this season and the problems the Broncos are having on offence. This could be a horrible mistake.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Raiders @ Chargers (+2.5)

Teams that get points at home who are not terrible are often tempting to pick, but with yet more injuries hampering the Chargers I can’t see them beating a Raiders team who will be desperate to get back on track after losing to the Chiefs last week. With the advantage of the extra days of rest I think the Raiders will do just that as they are a much better team.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

This should one of the games of the week, with a surging Buccaneers team travelling to Dallas to face a Cowboys team who just lost to the Giants again. There is already talk that Dak Prescott should sit for Tony Romo, which seems somewhat premature although he will need to bounce back as his performance has dipped in recent weeks. However, the Buccaneers defence has rounded into form and I expect a closer game than this line suggests. I’m not sure if the Buccaneers can win, but I expect them to keep the game closer than eight.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Buccaneers

Panthers @ Washington (-4.5)

Washington really needs this game, but whilst their offence continues to roll, their defence has struggled and they have not been convincing. The Panthers have been playing tough in recent weeks, and five of their eight losses have been by three points or less and so I think they could keep this one close. For whatever reason, I can’t bring myself to pick Washington to cover this line so I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Washington

And once more Dan and I are tied up in our competition to see who will be the least worst at picking games this season.

Gee:      Week 13   5-10                   Overall   87-105
Dan:      Week 13   4-11                   Overall   87-105

Steelers @ Bills (-1.5)

The Bills are having a funny season, and having built a 24-9 lead in the third quarter, their defence gave up an unanswered twenty-nine point to lose the game 38-24. At 6-6 they have had similar ups and downs in their wins and losses. This week they welcome a Steelers team who are on a three game winning streak as they fight the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North. Things seem to be coming right for the Steelers at the right time, and I see them winning this one off the back of their better offence and a defence that is doing just about enough.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Bears @ Lions (-8.5)

The Lions are having an impressive season and didn’t even need to come from behind last week as they controlled the Saints in a relatively straight forward win. This week they welcome a Bears team that beat them in Chicago and who are coming off a straight forward win against the 49ers. However, whilst there have been some improvements in a Bears team that are beset by injuries, they are 3-9 for a reason and so I expect the Lions to win. However, the nine clear points required the Lions to cover does give me pause, and in the end I back the Bears to cover this, albeit likely in a losing effort.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Bengals @ Browns (+6.5)

The Bengals sat troubled second year tackle Cedric Ogbuehi last week, and the line seemed to play better as the Bengals ran out easy winners against the Eagles. There were still too many field goals at the end of drives, and yet another missed extra point for Mike Nugent, but the team handled the Eagles easily enough, which I was not expecting. This week they face off against the Browns in the battle for Ohio part two. The Browns have been struggling, and worryingly this looks like the easiest game they have left to get a win this season. Dan is going for the Browns this week, but I saw something in that last game of the Bengals, and whilst I see this being a hard fought game, having beaten an Eagles team with a better record last week I am strangely confident going into this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Broncos @ Titans (+0.5)

I continue to find the Titans difficult to pick as I can’t quite pin down how good this team is, they are undoubtedly improved from last season, and are one of three teams with a 6-6 record in the AFC South, but they have not played consistently. This week they welcome a Broncos team who are still in the hunt for a playoff berth with an 8-4 record despite being third in the very competitive AFC West. The Broncos won despite the play of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch last week, and hope to get Trevor Siemian back from his foot sprain that saw him miss that game. In what is basically a pick ’em game, I think the Broncos will have enough to win thanks to their defence, but I can easily see the Titans proving me wrong yet again this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Texans @ Colts (-6.5)

The Colts absolutely dominated a woeful Jets team on Monday Night Football, which was a good way to welcome back Andrew Luck from concussion. However, this week they face a Texans team that whilst struggling on offence, have a solid defence. There is a big difference in DVOA percentages between these two AFC South teams that have identical records, which explains the three and a half point swing to the Colts. In the end though, I’m not that confident that the Colts will win by a clear touchdown so I’m nervously backing the Texans cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Cardinals @ Dolphins (-1.5)

The Dolphins didn’t just have their six game win streak broken last week, they got pummelled by a Ravens team who for the first time put together an offensive performance that was up to the level of their defence. The Dolphins’ offensive line is beat up, and whilst Ryan Tannehill had improved through the season as Adam Gase has come to understand what the quarterback does and doesn’t do well, he is still not a player you would rest your offence upon. This week they welcome a curiously broken Cardinals team. I have a lot of faith in Bruce Arians and his staff, but the Cardinals have really struggled this season and quarterback Carson Palmer has not looked himself until last week. I was surprised to see them beat Washington last week, but I do wonder if they can get the win this week. I’m finding this a hard game to pick, but I just have a feeling that maybe the Cardinals found something last week against a Washington team I like. The Dolphins will be looking to spring back from a bad loss, but my gut says the Cardinals win this one. Of course my gut has been wrong a lot this season!

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Vikings @ Jaguars (+3.5)

The Vikings may have lost last week against the Cowboys, but they put up a very credible performance with their defence looking back to its early season form and the offence managing to be a little better. The Jaguars continue to struggle this year and I don’t see them winning, nor being worth a selection even getting these points and playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Washington @ Eagles (+0.5)

The Eagles struggled badly against the Bengals last week, and a lot is being made of Carson Wentz’s performance. The Eagles are basically putting their trust in Wentz, a rookie quarterback that has a struggling receiver group, a reworked offensive line, and an unreliable running game, so it is hardly a surprise that he is having a rookie wobble. More worrying will be the trouble the Eagles are having on defence, and whilst the secondary has been a problem all season, particularly at corner, the lack of rush is troubling and was not something I was expecting last week. As many questions as there are about Washington’s defence, their offence can hang with most in the league and I expect Washington to have far too much for the Eagles, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Chargers @ Panthers (-1.5)

The Panthers got off to a horrible start with Can Newton benched for the opening play/drive due to team discipline. We can’t know for sure what the plan was because the opening pass was juggled by the Panther’s running back and the Panthers immediately turned the ball over. The Panthers got rolled over by the Seahawks on the road, and return to face the Chargers. The Panthers have had a bad season, and will be able to use an early draft pick to rebound next year, but they have little to play for other than pride this season. This is often over stated as players will always want to put good plays on tape, it is too easy to fall out of the league if you don’t, but they face a definite challenge this week. The Chargers may have lost to the Buccaneers last week, but I still think their record would be better if they were not in this year’s ultra-competitive AFC West, and I fancy them in this week’s game to beat the Panthers on the road. This could be a mistake, but I fancy the 5-7 team to beat the 4-8 one and so that’s what I’m picking.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jets @ 49ers (-2.5)

This is a hard game for me to call as the 49ers just travelled to Chicago and lost soundly to the Bears, whilst the Jets got drummed on Monday night football. That said, the 49ers won their opening game and haven’t looked like winning another one all season, whilst the Jets have at least won three games. However, the Jets are set to start Bryce Petty at quarterback and that brings up its own host of problems. In the end I’m backing the Jets to cover purely on getting points and not believing that the 49ers have much of a home field advantage, but if I could stay away from this game I would.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Falcons @ Rams (+6.5)

The Rams have finally had enough information leaked to confirm that Jeff Fisher is remaining their coach having signed an extension in the summer. However, their offence has never got out of first gear whilst their defence has recently given up some big games. This week they welcome a Falcons team who will want to get the taste of last week’s close out of their mouths, and whose offence one more looks like the one ranked number one by DVOA again.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Seahawks @ Packers (+2.5)

This is an interesting game as the Packers have played better in the last couple of weeks, and welcome a Seahawks team that just lost their star safety Earl Thomas. This is a big loss for the Seahawks as Thomas has the rare ability to patrol from side-line to side-line as part of the Seahawks famed cover three coverage. However, I still think they have enough to take care of the Packers as the offensive line looked better after the shock of the injuries in the previous week. I could see Aaron Rodgers winning this game as he has also looked better in recent weeks, but in the end I have more faith in the Seahawks coaching staff and what they have put together this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Saints @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Saints are coming of a bad loss at home to the Detroit Lions, and are now on the road visiting the Buccaneers. This loss probably put paid to their hopes of making the playoffs, whilst the Buccaneers continue their push, and with the Buccaneers at home, I think they will cover this one despite some likely heroics from Drew Brees because that’s what Brees does.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Cowboys @ Giants (+2.5)

The Giants had their own six game win streak broken last week playing the Steelers, who were able to take advantage of the Giants erratic play. You can only beat the teams put in front of you and no game is a gimme so I don’t want to take lightly the Giants’ run of wins, but the Cowboys have the league’s best record for a reason. The Cowboys might have had some tight wins in recent weeks, but with a long week to prepare and an offence that continues to do its thing, I am confident they have enough to win by three of more on the road in New York, divisional game or not.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Ravens @ Patriots (-8.5)

I’m not sure if I trust the Ravens to be able to maintain the offensive performance they found last week, but I trust their defence, which has been good all year. It feels like I have picked against the Patriots covering large spreads and been wrong multiple times, but with the loss of Rob Gronkowski and a defence that on occasions looks suspect, I’m once more backing a team to cover against the Patriots.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots