Tag Archives: Week 15 Picks

2020 Week Fifteen Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2020

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I would love to think that I am getting into Dan’s head having gone three out of three so far in week fifteen and picked up two points on him already, but despite his text this morning I am keenly aware that this still only cut his lead to under double digits and there are plenty of opportunities to fall further back.

Still, it is nice to be perfect so far so let’s take a look at the rest of the week fifteen games.

Early Games:

There are a couple of games that leap out of the early slate and once again one of the teams involved is the Miami Dolphins. They are hosting the New England Patriots, and this is a fixture that the Pats have had difficulties with for a number of years even when they were still running up double digit wins and making the AFC East their own. The East looks to be going to the Bills this season, but the Dolphins are very much in the hunt for a wildcard slot and I think this divisional game should be the next step in them doing just that, but I also think it should be a tense competitive game.

The Seattle Seahawks have an interesting test this week as they travel across the country to face the Washington Football Team who currently stand atop the NFC East and still have a shot at a winning record. I somehow doubt the Football Team are going to win out, particularly with the Seahawks coming to town this week, but watching the Washington defensive line trying to limit Russell Wilson should be fun and I think Washington could well cover even if I think the Seahawks are more likely to win.

Points from the rest:

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers really can’t afford too many more losses even with possession of the sixth wildcard spot as the Cardinals are only a game behind them and with the Vikings and Bears two games back neither are out the hunt yet, although you would fancy the Bucs to hold on. Still, while the Falcons should not prove too difficult an opponent this week, the Bucs have not impressed for a while and hanging on for a wildcard spot was not exactly the aim coming into the season
  • The Chicago Bears finally broke their six-game losing streak against the Texans and looked pretty good doing it. The Minnesota Vikings have improved after a bad start to the season and I do like the Vikings to win at home, but I have a feeling this divisional game will be closer than the line suggests with he Bears actually ranking better by overall DVOA.
  • It’s hard to take too much from the Dallas Cowboys’ win last week as the Bengals are a terrible football team, whilst the 49ers have remained competitive despite numerous injury problems and playing in an NFC West division that has been fearsomely competitive in 2020. I lean towards the 49ers winning this one and the points are not enough for me to pick against them.
  • The Detroit Lions followed up their win over the Bears with a loss to the Packers last week, although it was a reasonable showing. Still, the Tennessee Titans looked very solid against the Jaguars last week and with the league’s thirty-first defense by DVOA and the twenty-sixth ranked rush defense facingthe Titans I don’t expect that the Lions will manage a different result than the Jags.
  • The Indianapolis Colts are a very solid football team, top ten in both defense and special teams by DVOA and have enough good quarterback play through the combination of Philip Rivers’ experience and Jacoby Brissett providing short yardage sneaks and run-options close to the goal line that they should win this game. The Houston Texans are a divisional opponent so the line does worry me, but the Colts are a better team than the Bears so I think the Colts should cover
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars got a bit of a boost from starting Mike Glennon for two games but didn’t get a win and they were beat convincingly by the Titans last week. Meanwhile, the Ravens looked very good last week with Lamar Jackson running the ball effectively and it’s hard to see anything other than a Ravens win, although whether they cover the points is another question.

Buccaneers @ Falcons (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Bears @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

49ers @ Cowboys (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Lions @ Titans (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Texans @ Colts (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Patriots @ Dolphins (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Seahawks @ Washington (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Jaguars @ Ravens (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Late Games:

The pick of the late games is clearly the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the New Orleans Saints as this is probably the game of the week. The Saints will welcome the return of Drew Brees after the Taysom Hill experiment ran aground against the Eagles last week. This should be a fascinating contest, but how good Brees can be given his layoff for eleven broken ribs is a reasonable question and there does seem to be something inevitable about opposing quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offence. That said, the Saints defense is second only to the Steelers by DVOA and there are enough questions surrounding the Chiefs defense and performance in recent weeks that they are beatable. It’s just no-one but the Raiders have managed it so far this season.

Points on the Rest:

  • The LA Rams looks to be a better-balanced team this season than the year they went to the Super Bowl and should have no problem beating the New York Jets at home.
  • The Arizona Cardinals got back to winning ways last week, and Kyler Murray looked much more like himself. That said, the Eagles found something in Jalen Hurts and having beaten the Saints last week will be hoping to build on that win. I wonder if the Saints were complacent last week, but this line still seems a bit high to me but we shall see.

Jets @ Rams (-16.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Eagles @ Cardinals (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Chiefs @ Saints (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Sunday Night Football:

Browns @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants lost their first game in five weeks against the Cardinals and the games don’t get any easier this week with the Cleveland Browns coming to town. There is three points between the consensus line and this one so I pretty much have to pick the Browns by default, and I would expect them to win given recent performances. The Giants still have a good defense but they will need their offence to do better if they want to apply pressure to Washington at the top of the NFC East over the final three games.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Monday Night Football

Steelers @ Bengals (+12.5)

The Steelers have a particularly good record against the Bengals anyway, but I can’t see any hope for a bad Bengals team who will be starting third string quarterback Ryan Finley who has an 0-3 record as a starter. There are genuine issues with a Steelers’ offence that cannot run the ball or stretch the field and a defence that has a cluster of injuries at linebacker but the Bengals are simply not equipped to exploit this.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Fifteen Picks

15 Sunday Dec 2019

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It’s time for a quick run through our week fifteen picks picks, but first there the small matter of our very tight trivia competition.

‘In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?’

I’m really not sure about this one, I think I have a vague feeling that after the first year the Jaguars were surprisingly successful for an expansion team, but this is another of those you have to know questions and I don’t. I’m going to go for three seasons as that’s the number that popped into my head first, but I feel like I have a one in four chance of being right and I’m not happy that I’ve plucked the right number out of the air.

‘This is going to be one of those ‘one way or the other’ questions where it’s either more than you might think, or none. I think I’m going to go high, but I don’t think it will have been all five years, so I’ll guess at 4. Complete guess though!’

Bears @ Packers (-4.5)

The Green Bay Packers may have three more wins and be playing at home but I’m not sure there is this much difference between the two teams and so with Mitch Trubisky playing better I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Patriots @ Bengals (+9.5)

This is a really awkward pick because the New England Patriots are unlikely to lose three games straight, and could well beat the Cincinnati Bengals by ten points or a lot more, plus the number has moved so that this actually offers value to pick the Patriots but the Bengals haven’t lost by more than eight points in four weeks.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have not been healthy all year and whilst Patrick Mahomes will play, he suffered a hand injury last week so whilst I like the Chiefs to win the game, going against a Denver Broncos team who are on a two game win streak I am going to back the division rivals to keep the game within eleven points.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Buccaneers @ Lions (+3.5)

I hate this particular line as we know the Detroit Lions are really struggling, you don’t lose six games in a row if things are going well, but looking at the lines this is an advantageous number to pick the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The issue there is that I have no faith in them given their inconsistencies and so if I do pick them I am beholden to Jameis Winston. If I had the option to, I would run a mile from picking this game, but I don’t so I guess I have to pick the Bucs…

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Texans @ Titans (-2.5)

Both the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans have an 8-5 record so this is the first of a huge pair of games between these two teams that could well decide the fate of the AFC South. The Texans have been up and down this season, as they have been for most of head coach Bill O’Brien’s tenure, whilst the Titans have won four straight and are one of the form teams of the NFL at the moment. I’m going take the team I think have been consistently better.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Dolphins @ Giants (-3.5)

The New York Giants come into this game as slight favourites, which is surprising given that they have lost nine straight games, although they did take the Eagles into overtime last week. However, they are welcoming the Miami Dolphins who only have one more win and are a lot worse by DVOA, but I think if you ask anyone following the league you would rather be in the Dolphins situation than the Giants. The Dolphins are not built for winning this season but Brian Flores looks like the real deal as a coach and so that sways me in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Eagles @ Washington (+5.5)

This is a strange game where thanks to the long-standing problems of the franchise in the nation’s capital, it is likely that there will be more Philadelphia Eagles fans in the crowd than home fans. It does seem that Washington has stabilised under Bill Callahan, but this doesn’t mean that they are a good team. However, neither are the Eagles, who through injury and loss of coaching staff look a pale imitation of the team that won a Super Bowl two seasons ago. This seems a lot of points to be laying on the road for a team who needed overtime to beat the Giants last week, but Washington have picked up some injuries as well as lacking roster talent. The numbers say take the Eagles so that’s what I’m gong to do, but I really don’t want to.

Gee’s Pick:        Eagles
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Seahawks @ Panthers (+5.5)

Teams who fire their coach often get a bounce, but this very much did not happen last week for the Carolina Panthers who clearly held Ron Rivera in high regard. This week they welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who got beat badly by the Rams last week. I’m concerned about this number of points but I think the Seahawks are in a much better place right now and will be looking to make amends for last week’s showing.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Browns @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I don’t want to pick the Cleveland Browns laying points on the road, but I think I am going to have to as the Arizona Cardinals have fallen from a promising 3-3-1 to 3-9-1, although they have faced a lot of good teams. That said, the nearest they cam to covering this line was against the Buccaneers and they failed that so I’m going to hold my nose and back the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:        Browns
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Jaguars @ Raiders (-6.5)

I hate this line, I have no faith at all in either team right now, but whilst this is a lot of points for a team like the Oakland Raiders to be laying, the Jacksonville Jaguars have lost five straight by seventeen or more points and so in the end there’s only one team I can bring myself to pick.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Vikings @ Chargers (+2.5)

The LA Chargers are the eighteenth ranked team by DVOA and the Minnesota Vikings are the seventh ranked team. The LA Chargers have very little home field advantage and Philip Rivers has not been playing well. The Vikings may have lost four games, and should still install more confidence but something about Kirk Cousins makes you worry but with the Vikings only need to win by a field goal I’m going to go with who I think is the better team.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Falcons @ 49ers (-10.5)

I hate this line as the San Francisco 49ers have proved themselves to be one of the best teams in the NFL and are coming off an amazing win away at the Saints. They have also just lost their starting centre for the season and I wonder if this is too many points. The problem is that the Atlanta Falcons are not a good team, but have won three out of their last five games. This is the first non-divisional game they have played since their bye week, which only makes that last period harder to evaluate. I’m not as convinced of the gap between these two teams as I was between the Ravens and Jets and having got away with one enormous points cover I’m not going to tempt fate again, although I can absolutely see the 49ers proving me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Rams @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are not a good football team right now, but they only have to be better than the Eagles to make the playoffs. I’m not sure the Rams are going to make the playoffs despite having a better record, but they seem to have found something in the last few weeks and so with a line as close as this I’m going to back the better coach.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Bills @ Steelers (-2.5)

This could be an ugly game to watch as both teams have strong defences and limited offences, but I respect both coaches and this should be a truly competitive game. I’m seeing this line as getting an extra point and a half and so for that reason alone I’m going to back the Bills but Mike Tomlin has done an excellent job with his team and it would not surprise me at all if the Steelers actually won.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Colts @ Saints (-9.5)

The line I am seeing online has actually come down a little, and so by my process that should mean backing the Indianapolis Colts, but I am really not sure about that. Given the retirement of Andrew Luck the Colts have been impressively competitive thanks to a well-constructed roster but the only game they have won in the last six weeks was against the Jaguars as key injuries are hampering them as well as kicking woes. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints are definitely a good team as their 10-3 record clearly demonstrates, but the points worry me. The Saints scored a lot against the 49ers last week but also gave up a lot and so I don’t know if they can beat this line. I’m going to reluctantly take the points, but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week 15

12 Thursday Dec 2019

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So I had a better week, but I’m still rooted to the bottom of the table whilst 3D extended his lead, but as he’s in the 99th percentile in the ESPN game perhaps I shouldn’t be too upset to be trailing, but I’m going to keep fighting with three weeks left.

Dan’s Dad: Week 14:   12-4 Overall:   119-89
Dan: Week 14:   9-7 Overall:   111-97
Gee: Week 14:   9-7 Overall:   109-99

Jets @ Ravens (-14.5)

I’ve been on the road, come home and voted but running all kinds of late so I’m going to keep this short and sweet. The Ravens are a good team, the Jets are not. I’m seeing the Jets getting even more points than this online and so I’m picking the good team even if Lamar Jackson is on the injury report as what I’m seeing points to it not being a big deal. Fingers crossed tonight for more than one reason.

Gee’s Pick:     Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Jets

Week 9 Trivia

‘Week 14 is consigned to the archive and we stand ready for the final 3 weeks of the regular season and the maelstrom of the play-offs and Super Bowl. There is still, though, a lot to be decided in the coming weeks as only 3 teams have actually clinched anything.

The Picks returned a healthy 3 points between us ,which is above average despite there being some challenging spreads which caught us out. Interestingly our aversion to getting Thursday right has returned and a similar issue blights the Monday games also. There isn’t a modest way to report the scores this week as while Dan and Gee brought back a creditable 9 each my streak of good form continued with 12 to give me an 8 point advantage.  I don’t share the view that it’s all over as I’ve seen/had some calamitous collapses and 3 games can see a big swing.

The trivia though is most definitely wide open with just a point between the brains trust so the remaining games offer many potential twists and turns. This week I asked

Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?

The answer which both of them aced was, of course Baltimore. 

Well there has to be the odd easy question. This week, however, who knows?

For Week 15 we find ourselves in Jacksonville and what I’d like to ask is:

In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?

Next weeks report may be a little shorter than usual as having set the Jaguars question I should probably leave the country for a while and writing by a pool in Dubai is tough. Still someone had to do it!’

2018 Week Fifteen Picks

16 Sunday Dec 2018

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With the winter solstice only five days away we go into the Sunday of week fifteen with Dan’s Dad extending his lead in the picks competition to two points, but first there’s a deceptively fiendish trivia questions to deal with.

‘We’re all rushing round getting ready for the holidays but: Which team was last in the league for rushing yards in 2017/18?’

This is not the kind of thing that just rattles round my brain, but the Bengals were pretty awful last season and it was a major point of emphasis in the offseason plus the reason we change line coach for the first time in something like twenty years so I’m going to suggest the Bengals, and even if they weren’t actually last they will be pretty damn close.

‘Difficult one this week… I don’t think either our Dolphins or Bengals will have been particularly high up the rushing rankings last year but I’m basically guessing based on whose runners I can’t name off the top of my head. I think I’ll go for Detroit, but it’s a complete guess.’

Cardinals @ Falcons (-8.5)

The Arizona Cardinals are tricky team to read other than them being bad. Two of their three wins have come on the road, but then two of their three wins are against the 49ers. This week they travel to face a four win Atlanta Falcons team who mainly win at home, but haven’t managed that in five games. You would give the Falcons the edge in this game but the Cardinals have possibly been better on the road and this feels like too many points to lay as a team who haven’t won since week nine.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Lions @ Bills (-2.5)

The Detroit Lions got a win in Arizona, but their offence has been hobbled by the injuries to Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson and this week they travel to face a Buffalo Bills team who have a defence that ranks third by DVOA. This could be an ugly game and with the Bills only needing a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team. Nervously…

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Packers @ Bears (-5.5)

The Green Bay Packers won last week, despite Joe Philbin losing both his coach’s challenges inside the opening two minutes of the game but it is one thing to beat the badly travelling Falcons at Lambeau Field and another to travel to face Chicago and their number one by DVOA defence. With their win against the Rams last week the Bears continued to make the case that they should be taken very seriously, even if Mitchell Trubisky looked every inch the quarterback coming back from a should injury. Still, Matt Nagy has done a really good job of aggressively planning for his team and leaving Vic Fangio alone to helm a terrifying defence. The Packers have not won on the road this season and whilst I’m not saying it isn’t possible in this game, with Khalil Mack fully integrated into the Bears’ defence I don’t expect Rodgers to be able to pull of the kind of comeback performance he managed in week one. That said Rodgers has a habit of making anyone who picks against him look foolish and I can’t bring myself to do it in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Raiders @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals managed to keep the score respectable against the Chargers in LA last week but between the poor defence and the injuries it is hard have much faith in them at the moment. The Oakland Raiders beat the Steelers last week with some help from the Steelers but their defence is in fact ranked worse than the Bengals by DVOA. Their offences may actually rank closely but the Raiders have won two out of their last four games. This is the last home game for the Bengals this season and my numbers say this is a good pick for the Bengals but on recent form I just can’t do it. I hope to be proven wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Cowboys @ Colts (-2.5)

This should be an absolutely cracking game as the Dallas Cowboys have found their formula in recent weeks thanks to the combination of a top ten defence and an offence that has really nailed down how to use Ezekiel Elliott and that was transformed by the addition of Amari Cooper even if you can debate the price they paid to do it. This week they travel to Indianapolis to take on a Colts team who bounced back from a bad loss against the Jaguars to beat the Texans last week and who have won six of their last seven games since starting the season 1-5. Andrew Luck looks like the quarterback we all thought he could be and the Colts actually rank better by overall DVOA than the Cowboys although the Cowboys have won five straight. That said, it looks like Zack Martin could be out this week and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to beat the Eagles in overtime last week and with this being their first road game since week eleven I’m going to pick a Colts team who only need a field goal to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Titans @ Giants (-2.5)

I have struggled to pick the Tennessee Titans all year and this week is no exception as they are coming off a good win against the Jacksonville Jaguars and take their 7-6 record to face a New York Giants team who have won four of their last five games. I’m not sure I’m qualified to write about the Giants’ resurgence other than to mention the form of rookie running back Saquon Barkley who is third in the league in rushing total and is averaging five point four yards per game. In fact the Giants are ranked seven places higher by overall DVOA despite being two games back by win record. The Titans have lost their last four games on the road and have just placed starting right tackle Jack Conklin on IR so I am going to reluctantly back the Giants, but honestly I have no idea what will happen in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dolphins @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Miami Dolphins beat the Patriots last week with a last second miracle play but could fall back to earth with a bump this week as they take their five straight road losses to Minnesota to face a faltering Vikings team. The dysfunction on offence was enough to cost John DeFilippo his job as offensive coordinator and it will be interesting to see if this sparks the offence in the final three games as Mike Zimmer will hope. The Vikings currently have the last wildcard spot despite their problems but they can’t afford to drop games now. This feels like too many points to lay given the uncertainty on offence but the Dolphins road form has been awful and if Zimmer gets the running game he seeks then perhaps the Vikings can have more control of the game. That’s the way I’m leaning although I’m not entirely sure why. If I’m wrong it will cheer Dan right up.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Ravens (-7.5)

Don’t look now but the Buccaneers have won two of their last three games and didn’t exactly get humiliated by the Saints last week although the Saints won pretty convincingly. This week they travel to Baltimore to face the second ranked defence by DVOA who held a wounded Chiefs offence in a game the Ravens could very well have won. The Ravens are very much in contention for the NFC North but with a visit to the LA Chargers next week they cannot afford to lose this game or the season ender against the Browns. The commitment to running the ball since placing rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson into the starting line-up has transformed the fortunes of the Ravens and I expect them to win out in this game but this line is just a little too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Washington @ Jaguars (-6.5)

This might be a contender for least attractive game of the season given Washington’s current form and injury situation plus the Jaguars woeful season. It’s hard to see the Jaguars as this big a favourite against anyone, except that Washington just shipped forty points against the Giants. With the level of quarterback play on display this could be a truly ugly game so I’m going to back Washington based on that principle alone but it should be remembered that remarkably Washington are not out of the playoff hunt yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Seahawks @ 49ers (+5.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are a bad team, but they picked up their third win of the season last week and scuppered the Broncos hopes of the playoffs. Still, they welcome a Seahawks team who are finishing the season strong and who are on a four game winning streak. In fact, of their five losses this season only one of them was to a team that currently has a losing record and I fancy them to run out winners in this one. This is a lot of points, but not quite enough to make me back the 49ers, even if my spreadsheet might indicate otherwise.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Patriots @ Steelers (+1.5)

There is something rotten in the franchise of Pittsburgh who have lost three straight games, with the loss to the Raiders being particularly hard to explain. This would account for them getting points at home and that might be really tempting except that the Patriots always seem to find a way to beat the Steelers and are coming off the kind of loss that Brady and Belichick will be desperate to wash away with a win. The Steelers look like they could be without running back James Conner for a second week thanks to a high ankle sprain and I am just not going to bet against the Patriots in this situation

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Eagles @ Rams (-9.5)

Given that Carson Wentz has been ruled out of this game with a fractured vertebrae it feels unlikely that the struggling Eagles will turn round their fortunes against a Los Angeles Rams team who will be desperate to get right after their loss to the Bears last week. The line is somewhat concerning though, but this is a different Eagles team than last year, as much due to the loss of offensive coaches as it is the players, and given their beat up secondary I think the Rams could get back to winning in a big way this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)

The final game of the week would have been a huge matchup just a couple of weeks ago, but given the Carolina Panthers have lost five games in a row it feels like the result is much less in doubt this week as they welcome the New Orleans Saints. Still, this is a divisional game and the Saints offence has looked a little less transcendent in the last couple of weeks, which is perhaps not that surprising as their mid-season form really was remarkable. This is the third straight road game for the Saints and so the points are enough to make me pause as whilst I think the Saints will win, I don’t know if it will be by a touchdown. I could regret this as Cam Newton’s shoulder and the Panthers’ form makes me nervous, but I’m very hesitantly going to back them to a lot better than their last prime time game against the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Saturday Picks, Saturday Picks

15 Saturday Dec 2018

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Sing with me to the tune of the Blankety Blank theme:

‘Saturday picks, Saturday picks
Saturday pick, Saturday Picks etc.’

Yes, I am feeling distinctly out of synch with these picks so let’s get to the first Saturday games of the year that follow a really entertaining Thursday night game the I picked totally wrong…

Texans @ Jets (+6.5)

So it is perfectly logical that the Houston Texans run of nine wins came to an end last week, but a loss to a division rival who are also in contention for the playoffs is pretty understandable so I don’t want to ding them too badly. However, this week they travel to face a New York Jets team who are coming off a win and get to welcome a dome team into the elements of an open field as this is the Texans first road game since week eleven. The Texans offence relies on the run as a foundation and the Jets rush defence currently ranks twenty-third in the league by DVOA. I like the Texans to win this game but the points worry me as the only big road win the Texans have was against the Jaguars. The Jets aren’t exactly great either but if I’m getting this many points I’m tempted enough to nervously back them.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Browns @ Broncos (-3.5)

This is an interesting game for me as the Denver Broncos basically dropped out of the playoff race last week with a bad road loss to the San Francisco 49ers team but they are a better team at home. However, this week they face a Cleveland Browns team who have won three out of their last four games and who have been competitive for a lot of the season. That said, their solitary road win was against the Bengals in week twelve and they lost badly to the Texans two weeks ago. The DVOA rankings still really like the Broncos but that extra half point worries me and so I’m going to nervously grab the points and hope I’m not being too clever for my own good.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Fifteen

13 Thursday Dec 2018

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Somehow there are only three weeks of the regular season left and it’s still nip and tuck in the picks competition with Dan’s Dad taking a slender one point lead and Dan narrowing the gap to single digits with his revised strategy, but given the quality of tonight’s game I’m not sure you will care about any of that so on to the pick.

Gee:    Week 14   7-9             Overall   108-100
Dan:    Week 14   10-6           Overall   100-108

Chargers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

I think that the scheduling computers were clearly setup to improve the quality of the prime time games as this is another cracking Thursday night game that see the 10-3 LA Chargers visiting the 11-2 Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are carrying injuries to their impressive offences and have quarterbacks in the conversation for MVP but whilst the Chiefs have a 6-4 home record in this matchup  over the last ten years, they have won the last four and I have a feeling that they will still have enough to edge this one. The extra half point make me nervous, as does the limping of Tyreek Hill but Chargers have their own problems at running back and at home on a Thursday night I’m leaning towards the Chiefs.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Week Fifteen Trivia

‘There is something special about the last knockings of a season in whatever sport you follow. There seems to be a new twist at every turn and this season’s main events are obviously the TWF Picks and Trivia competitions. With the Picks far too close to call and Dan making a late charge with some interesting strategies this will go right to the line.

I am pleased to report that as expected both Gee and Dan correctly identified the 49’ers as the answer to Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?

And so to the run in to the end of the regular season.

For week 15 I’m going to stay in last season.

We’re all rushing round getting ready for the holidays but: Which team was last in the league for rushing yards in 2017/18?’

Week Fifteen Picks

17 Sunday Dec 2017

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Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills are one of four teams in the AFC with a 7-6 record and do have a shot at a wildcard spot but they also have to play the Miami Dolphins twice and face the Patriots next week. As such, they have to win at least two of those and hope to get into the playoffs. The Dolphins are one of the hardest teams to predict given that their plays is incredibly up and down, they are ranked twenty-eight overall by DVOA, and yet they have a 6-7 record. The Dolphins impressive win against the Patriots on Monday would give me pause, except that I have no faith in their ability to play consistently from week to week and for whatever reason they do give the Patriots problems at home. As such, I’m backing the Bills to win out in this one and they only need a field goal to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bengals @ Vikings (-10.5)

This could be a really painful game for me as the Bengals leave Cincinnati after a bad loss to the Bears and head off to face the Vikings in Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off three straight road games and only lost to the Panthers last week, but they are a much more balanced team than the Bengals not to mention a better one. The Vikings’ defence is going to cause the anaemic Bengals offence problems and with the injuries at linebacker mounting up I don’t see the Bengals covering this line in a tough stadium to play in.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Ravens @ Browns (+7.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are travelling to face the Cleveland Browns and I do wonder about picking the Browns to cover this one, but it feels like every time I do that I lose and so with the Ravens in the playoff hunt and still possessing the best defence and special teams in the league by DVOA I am backing them to cover. Although I will be interested to see what the Browns’ vocal new GM John Dorsey gets up to in the offseason.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Packers @ Panthers (+0.5)

The Carolina Panthers got the win last week against the Vikings and are part of a tight three way race in the NFC South. This week they face an excited Green Bay Packers who have their talisman back in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a slim hope of making the playoffs but they will need to win their final three games and Rodgers will have to hit the ground running in his first game back since breaking his collar bone. I can understand the excitement as the Packers had to win out last season to make the playoffs and they did, but it is a tough three games and the Packers did not look at all convincing without Rodgers as their quarterback. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rodgers gets the win on the road, but I’m not sure I can pick it.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jets @ Saints (-15.5)

This is an awful lot of points, but with the New York Jets losing starting quarterback Josh McCown for the rest of the season to a broken hand and the New Orleans Saints getting rookie sensation Marshon Lattimore back at corner as well as rookie running back Alvin Kamara clearing concussion protocol it doesn’t feel like the Jets will keep it close. I could regret it, but with the Saints having extra rest and being at home I think they are going to have a big game.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Eagles @ Giants (+7.5)

It is so frustrating that Carson Wentz is done for the year, but the Philadelphia Eagles will still be a tough team to face. The New York Giants continue to argue amongst themselves and I suspect that the end of the season can’t come soon enough. I think the Eagles will still win this game, but with a backup quarterback I can’t pick them to win by eight without seeing some evidence first.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Cardinals @ Washington (-4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have remained competitive in a lot of games despite the injuries and this week they travel to face a Washington team who have been equally beset by injury. The Cardinals defence is fifth in the league by DVOA and I think they will be competitive so whilst I think Washington are more likely to win, I’m not going to pick them to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Texans @ Jaguars (-11.5)

The Houston Texans have won one game in their last seven and travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars with an offence that ranks twentieth in the league by DVOA. This is a problem when you are facing the number two defence in the league by DVOA and the number one pass defence. The Texans rush attack doesn’t look to stack up that great against the comparatively weak Jaguars run defence either. The points give me some pause, and it still feels strange to see the Jaguars giving this number of points, but I don’t think anyone is going to fancy playing the Jaguars in the playoffs and this is going to be a tough game for the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks lost a bad tempered game to the Jaguars last week and are increasingly reliant on Russell Wilson to do the impossible as the injuries continue to mount on defence. The LA Rams lost to the Eagles last week and this game can be seen as something of a measuring stick on whether they are going to be a dangerous team in the playoffs. The Rams have made tremendous progress from last season, but do seem to have struggled against tough defences and this is a bad time to have some injury niggles on the offensive line. Still, with Bobby Wagner not having practised all week, the Seahawks must be worried even if it looks like the linebacker is going to try to play with his hamstring injury. The Rams have beaten the Seahawks in recent years and I think this is the time we find out how good they are going to be and I think they edge this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Titans @ 49ers (-1.5)

It is not often that you see a 3-10 team favoured over an 8-5 team but the Tennessee Titans are coming off an ugly loss to the Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers have won two straight since Jimmy Garoppolo became their starting quarterback. The Titans have been winning ugly this year, and really need this one to stay in the playoff hunt but Marcus Mariota has not looked great in his third season. I’m going to back the team with the momentum in this game and just hope that Garoppolo keeps his winning streak going for another week as he has to lose at some point.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Patriots @ Steelers (+2.5)

In a game that many see as deciding who will come out of the AFC to be in the Super Bowl by determining who will have home field advantage in the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers welcome the New England Patriots who are coming off a tough loss to the Dolphins. The Patriots will have Rob Gronkowski back from suspension and in recent years have shredded the Steelers’ cover two defence, which is worrying given the injury to Ryan Shazier. However, the Steelers’ offence feel like it has more than enough to keep up with the Patriots offence, particularly with there being injury problems for the Patriots at right tackle. The Patriots almost never lose two straight under Bill Belichick but getting points at home is too much for me to pass up in this cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Cowboys @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Oakland Raiders have really struggled this season and with the league’s worst defence by DVOA I see them struggling against a Dallas Cowboys team that has won two straight and seem to have got themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+6.5)

This week’s Monday night game see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs have really struggled and losing Gerald McCoy will really hurt a defence already ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA. The Falcons offence may not have reached the heights of last season, but having found a way to win against the Saints despite Matt Ryan throwing three interceptions last week I expect them to win again this week. I’m just not sure they will win by a touchdown on the road given that they haven’t managed it all season.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

16 Saturday Dec 2017

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Well after a disastrous Thursday night pick where I failed to foresee that Brock Osweiler would come in and play really well, we move to the two Saturday night games.

Bears @ Lions (-5.5)

I am tempted by the points in this one with the Chicago Bears coming off a very good looking win against the Bengals last week. However, I’m not sure how much was the Bears good play and how much was an injured Bengals team coming off a tough Monday night game that put a final nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions did enough in Tampa Bay to win the game and with an outside shot at the playoffs I think they should win this one and hopefully cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chargers @ Chiefs (+1.5)

This should be a really interesting game, and part of me definitely wants to take the points for the Chiefs as they have one of the better home advantages in the league. However, they have only won one game in their last five whilst the visiting LA Chargers have won four straight in the same period. More worrying for Chiefs fans is that their defence has been struggling and Chargers’ receiver Keenan Allen seems to be going from strength to strength with four consecutive one hundred yard games. I’ll be a little nervous about it, but I’m going to back the Chargers to win out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Why Can’t We Have Nice Things?

14 Thursday Dec 2017

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With the loss of Carson Wentz for the rest of the season it really feels like NFL fans just can’t have nice things this year.

That said, as upsetting as it was to have the team with the best record in the NFC lose its starting quarterback, it still pales into insignificance when compared to the spinal injury the Steelers’ linebacker Ryan Shazier picked up the week before.

I was travelling to and from Newcastle last week and so didn’t really have time to write about what happened during the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night clash with the Cincinnati Bengals in the right kind of detail and I’m still not entirely sure what the correct thing is to say. I didn’t enjoy watching the game, there was a sense of inevitability about the Steelers come back and I am very bored of the lack of discipline and the chippiness in these games. Particularly on the Bengals side but the sight of the various hits that concussed players given what had happened to Shazier was difficult to watch. We know the game is dangerous, and at some level we have to make peace with that, but that Monday night game showed a side of football that has to brought under control and that doesn’t include the play where Shazier was hurt.

To be honest I just want him to be okay, and I don’t mean a return to football. Given that the man had spinal stabilisation surgery, I want him to be able to walk around and lead his life.

Last week also saw firings in New York and Cleveland with the Giants clearing house when they fired both GM Jerry Reese and head coach Ben McAdoo whilst the Browns let go of Sashi Brown.

There have been problems with the roster for a while in New York and so letting go Jerry Reese despite him being involved in two Super Bowl wins but there is talent to build upon for whoever takes over, although the issue of a quarterback will be the major headache.

As for the Browns, I don’t really know how much was the quarterbacks they didn’t take in the draft; the failure of the AJ McCarron trade due to the paperwork not being sent in on time; or the relationship with the rest of the front office, owner, and head coach Hue Jackson who is apparently safe for now but some mix of these things got Sashi Brown fired and they have already replaced him with John Dorsey. Only time will tell how much this will affect their approach, but I would imagine something will happen around the quarterback position ahead of next season. I’m also not entirely sure that Hue Jackson will survive, particularly if the Browns fail to register a win this season despite his current vote of confidence.

I really hope that things turns round for the Browns, they have such a loyal fan base despite the woeful performance of the team for a number of years.

And now a recap of the week fourteen picks and tonight’s game.

Gee:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   117-92
Dan:      Week 14   6-10                  Overall   108-101

Broncos @ Colts (+2.5)

This not exactly a game to set pulse rates racing and with the Denver Broncos winning their first game since their week five bye on Sunday visiting the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos have not won on the road all season so is this the week that they start? I don’t know is the honest answer and whilst I could regret this, I’m reverting to home team Thursday night rules and grabbing a couple of points unenthusiastically although I am curious to see how this game plays out.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Week Fifteen Picks

18 Sunday Dec 2016

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Well here we are with this week’s pick, have picked a slender two pick lead last week, I hope I can keep the momentum up.

Gee:      Week 14   10-6                   Overall   97-111
Dan:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   95-113

Browns @ Bills (-9.5)

I think you would have to have a heart of stone to not want the Browns to get a win, but they are running out of time and it is hard to see where they might get it. The Bills have struggled on defence, but have a running game that ranks first in the league by DVOA yet has been reliant on LeSean McCoy. I’m not sure that the Browns can win this game on the road, and it has been a while since they have been within ten points, but laying this many points as the Bills worries me and so in the end I am very nervously backing the Browns to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Packers @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears have such a long list of injuries, but it does look like there are things that can be built upon next season. This week they welcome a Packers team coming off a big win against the Seahawks. The Packers need to win all their remaining games to have a chance at getting to the playoffs, but whilst I can’t predict if they can pull that off or not, I think they will win this one. It’s just a question of whether they can cover these points, but in a season of varying performance levels, the Packers are look like they are coming together and so I think they will.

Gee’sPick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Steelers @ Bengals (+3.5)

This is a grudge game, and a chance for the Bengals to act as spoilers in a season that has fallen well short of where they hoped to have been. The Steelers are still chasing the playoffs, but injury has hit their receivers and they can’t expect two hundred and ninety-eight combined yards from Le’Veon Bell every week. I expect this to be a close game, and as the one with the most meaning for the Bengals, I just fancy them to cover getting three and a half points at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:     Steelers

Lions @ Giants (-4.5)

The Giants have been playing really well on defence in a rare case of offseason free-agents working out, but they have been struggling a little on offence. The Lions have been relying on Matthew Stafford so much this season, but the big questions for them will be how his injured finger will affect his ability to throw the ball. I am sure that Lions fans will be waiting for the wheels to fall off, and that might well be the case, but a five point win just feels like too much to ask for me. Although I could be very wrong about that…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Giants

Titans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The Chiefs keep finding a way to win, and are making a serious case to be considered the best team in the AFC. This week they welcome a Titans team that have made serious steps forward from last season, but one I am finding serially hard to predict week to week. This feels like a lot of points to me, but I’m not sure the Titans, for all their progress this year, are ready for this game in Arrowhead stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Chiefs

Colts @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Colts have been so up and down this season, and lost a key divisional game last week that likely puts them out of the playoff hunt. This week they travel to Minnesota to face a team that possibly think they are still in the playoff hunt, but who have been fighting through injuries all season. In recent weeks their defence has returned to their early season form, yet the big question is whether their offence can do enough to win. This makes the Vikings needing to win by five just that bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

Eagles @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens’ loss to the Patriots looks closer by the score than it actually was as it took successive punt miscues for the Ravens to get the chance to score. The Eagles however, are on a four week losing streak having had their season slip away from the early promise it showed. However, they did keep the game close when they hosted Washington last week, but they are on the road in Baltimore against a much tougher defence in this game, and so I seem them struggling to move the ball. The offence of the Ravens does make me worry, and in the end I’m not confident enough that they will cover this line to pick the Ravens, even if I think they will win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)

I face a similar dilemma in this game as I expect the Texans who have a good defence and a struggling offence to win at home, but the Jaguars are a much worse team than the Eagles, or at least are in terms of performance. More worrying, the last game that the Jaguars kept closer than seven was against the Texans back in week ten, so I’m really not sure what to do in this game. I am tempted by the points, but in the end with the Jaguars having little to play for and the Texans in a fight for the division, I am backing the Texans to cover this line, although I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

49ers @ Falcons (-13.5)

The Falcons’ number one offence by DVOA host the 49ers thirtieth ranked defence, and even without an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu the Falcons racked up a big win against the Rams last week. They were given some points by the Rams offence, but it is hard to see the 49ers doing much better in this one, and so I’m going to take the unusual step of laying the 13.5 as the Falcons are at home. It does make me a little nervous, but if you look through the year, of the twelve games the 49ers have lost, half of them have been by over fourteen points so it is not so odd they might do it again on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Saints @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Saints offence seems to have struggled over the last couple of weeks and this week they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. I’m not sure what is likely to happen in this game as the Cardinals have struggled all year, whilst the Saints have been up and down. By DVOA the Saints are a better team, but having narrowly lost to the Dolphins in the pouring rain last week and beaten Washington the week before, I’m going to back the Cardinals at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Broncos (+3.5)

This is an interesting line to me as the Patriots looked like you might be able to get at them even before they lost Rob Gronkowski for the year. However, Tom Bray has been managing without his favourite target thanks to the Patriots famed flexibility of game-plan and a much improved offensive line. However, Brady’s record is not that great in Denver and the Broncos’ pass defence has looked as strong as ever. The problem is that the Broncos offence has not been playing well and you can run the ball against them. I am strongly tempted by the Broncos getting points at home, but can’t discount how the Patriots keep finding a way this season and the problems the Broncos are having on offence. This could be a horrible mistake.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Raiders @ Chargers (+2.5)

Teams that get points at home who are not terrible are often tempting to pick, but with yet more injuries hampering the Chargers I can’t see them beating a Raiders team who will be desperate to get back on track after losing to the Chiefs last week. With the advantage of the extra days of rest I think the Raiders will do just that as they are a much better team.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

This should one of the games of the week, with a surging Buccaneers team travelling to Dallas to face a Cowboys team who just lost to the Giants again. There is already talk that Dak Prescott should sit for Tony Romo, which seems somewhat premature although he will need to bounce back as his performance has dipped in recent weeks. However, the Buccaneers defence has rounded into form and I expect a closer game than this line suggests. I’m not sure if the Buccaneers can win, but I expect them to keep the game closer than eight.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Buccaneers

Panthers @ Washington (-4.5)

Washington really needs this game, but whilst their offence continues to roll, their defence has struggled and they have not been convincing. The Panthers have been playing tough in recent weeks, and five of their eight losses have been by three points or less and so I think they could keep this one close. For whatever reason, I can’t bring myself to pick Washington to cover this line so I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Washington