With the winter solstice only five days away we go into the Sunday of week fifteen with Dan’s Dad extending his lead in the picks competition to two points, but first there’s a deceptively fiendish trivia questions to deal with.

‘We’re all rushing round getting ready for the holidays but: Which team was last in the league for rushing yards in 2017/18?’

This is not the kind of thing that just rattles round my brain, but the Bengals were pretty awful last season and it was a major point of emphasis in the offseason plus the reason we change line coach for the first time in something like twenty years so I’m going to suggest the Bengals, and even if they weren’t actually last they will be pretty damn close.

‘Difficult one this week… I don’t think either our Dolphins or Bengals will have been particularly high up the rushing rankings last year but I’m basically guessing based on whose runners I can’t name off the top of my head. I think I’ll go for Detroit, but it’s a complete guess.’

Cardinals @ Falcons (-8.5)

The Arizona Cardinals are tricky team to read other than them being bad. Two of their three wins have come on the road, but then two of their three wins are against the 49ers. This week they travel to face a four win Atlanta Falcons team who mainly win at home, but haven’t managed that in five games. You would give the Falcons the edge in this game but the Cardinals have possibly been better on the road and this feels like too many points to lay as a team who haven’t won since week nine.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Lions @ Bills (-2.5)

The Detroit Lions got a win in Arizona, but their offence has been hobbled by the injuries to Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson and this week they travel to face a Buffalo Bills team who have a defence that ranks third by DVOA. This could be an ugly game and with the Bills only needing a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team. Nervously…

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Packers @ Bears (-5.5)

The Green Bay Packers won last week, despite Joe Philbin losing both his coach’s challenges inside the opening two minutes of the game but it is one thing to beat the badly travelling Falcons at Lambeau Field and another to travel to face Chicago and their number one by DVOA defence. With their win against the Rams last week the Bears continued to make the case that they should be taken very seriously, even if Mitchell Trubisky looked every inch the quarterback coming back from a should injury. Still, Matt Nagy has done a really good job of aggressively planning for his team and leaving Vic Fangio alone to helm a terrifying defence. The Packers have not won on the road this season and whilst I’m not saying it isn’t possible in this game, with Khalil Mack fully integrated into the Bears’ defence I don’t expect Rodgers to be able to pull of the kind of comeback performance he managed in week one. That said Rodgers has a habit of making anyone who picks against him look foolish and I can’t bring myself to do it in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Raiders @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals managed to keep the score respectable against the Chargers in LA last week but between the poor defence and the injuries it is hard have much faith in them at the moment. The Oakland Raiders beat the Steelers last week with some help from the Steelers but their defence is in fact ranked worse than the Bengals by DVOA. Their offences may actually rank closely but the Raiders have won two out of their last four games. This is the last home game for the Bengals this season and my numbers say this is a good pick for the Bengals but on recent form I just can’t do it. I hope to be proven wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Cowboys @ Colts (-2.5)

This should be an absolutely cracking game as the Dallas Cowboys have found their formula in recent weeks thanks to the combination of a top ten defence and an offence that has really nailed down how to use Ezekiel Elliott and that was transformed by the addition of Amari Cooper even if you can debate the price they paid to do it. This week they travel to Indianapolis to take on a Colts team who bounced back from a bad loss against the Jaguars to beat the Texans last week and who have won six of their last seven games since starting the season 1-5. Andrew Luck looks like the quarterback we all thought he could be and the Colts actually rank better by overall DVOA than the Cowboys although the Cowboys have won five straight. That said, it looks like Zack Martin could be out this week and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to beat the Eagles in overtime last week and with this being their first road game since week eleven I’m going to pick a Colts team who only need a field goal to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Titans @ Giants (-2.5)

I have struggled to pick the Tennessee Titans all year and this week is no exception as they are coming off a good win against the Jacksonville Jaguars and take their 7-6 record to face a New York Giants team who have won four of their last five games. I’m not sure I’m qualified to write about the Giants’ resurgence other than to mention the form of rookie running back Saquon Barkley who is third in the league in rushing total and is averaging five point four yards per game. In fact the Giants are ranked seven places higher by overall DVOA despite being two games back by win record. The Titans have lost their last four games on the road and have just placed starting right tackle Jack Conklin on IR so I am going to reluctantly back the Giants, but honestly I have no idea what will happen in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dolphins @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Miami Dolphins beat the Patriots last week with a last second miracle play but could fall back to earth with a bump this week as they take their five straight road losses to Minnesota to face a faltering Vikings team. The dysfunction on offence was enough to cost John DeFilippo his job as offensive coordinator and it will be interesting to see if this sparks the offence in the final three games as Mike Zimmer will hope. The Vikings currently have the last wildcard spot despite their problems but they can’t afford to drop games now. This feels like too many points to lay given the uncertainty on offence but the Dolphins road form has been awful and if Zimmer gets the running game he seeks then perhaps the Vikings can have more control of the game. That’s the way I’m leaning although I’m not entirely sure why. If I’m wrong it will cheer Dan right up.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Ravens (-7.5)

Don’t look now but the Buccaneers have won two of their last three games and didn’t exactly get humiliated by the Saints last week although the Saints won pretty convincingly. This week they travel to Baltimore to face the second ranked defence by DVOA who held a wounded Chiefs offence in a game the Ravens could very well have won. The Ravens are very much in contention for the NFC North but with a visit to the LA Chargers next week they cannot afford to lose this game or the season ender against the Browns. The commitment to running the ball since placing rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson into the starting line-up has transformed the fortunes of the Ravens and I expect them to win out in this game but this line is just a little too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Washington @ Jaguars (-6.5)

This might be a contender for least attractive game of the season given Washington’s current form and injury situation plus the Jaguars woeful season. It’s hard to see the Jaguars as this big a favourite against anyone, except that Washington just shipped forty points against the Giants. With the level of quarterback play on display this could be a truly ugly game so I’m going to back Washington based on that principle alone but it should be remembered that remarkably Washington are not out of the playoff hunt yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Seahawks @ 49ers (+5.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are a bad team, but they picked up their third win of the season last week and scuppered the Broncos hopes of the playoffs. Still, they welcome a Seahawks team who are finishing the season strong and who are on a four game winning streak. In fact, of their five losses this season only one of them was to a team that currently has a losing record and I fancy them to run out winners in this one. This is a lot of points, but not quite enough to make me back the 49ers, even if my spreadsheet might indicate otherwise.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Patriots @ Steelers (+1.5)

There is something rotten in the franchise of Pittsburgh who have lost three straight games, with the loss to the Raiders being particularly hard to explain. This would account for them getting points at home and that might be really tempting except that the Patriots always seem to find a way to beat the Steelers and are coming off the kind of loss that Brady and Belichick will be desperate to wash away with a win. The Steelers look like they could be without running back James Conner for a second week thanks to a high ankle sprain and I am just not going to bet against the Patriots in this situation

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Eagles @ Rams (-9.5)

Given that Carson Wentz has been ruled out of this game with a fractured vertebrae it feels unlikely that the struggling Eagles will turn round their fortunes against a Los Angeles Rams team who will be desperate to get right after their loss to the Bears last week. The line is somewhat concerning though, but this is a different Eagles team than last year, as much due to the loss of offensive coaches as it is the players, and given their beat up secondary I think the Rams could get back to winning in a big way this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)

The final game of the week would have been a huge matchup just a couple of weeks ago, but given the Carolina Panthers have lost five games in a row it feels like the result is much less in doubt this week as they welcome the New Orleans Saints. Still, this is a divisional game and the Saints offence has looked a little less transcendent in the last couple of weeks, which is perhaps not that surprising as their mid-season form really was remarkable. This is the third straight road game for the Saints and so the points are enough to make me pause as whilst I think the Saints will win, I don’t know if it will be by a touchdown. I could regret this as Cam Newton’s shoulder and the Panthers’ form makes me nervous, but I’m very hesitantly going to back them to a lot better than their last prime time game against the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Sing with me to the tune of the Blankety Blank theme:

‘Saturday picks, Saturday picks
Saturday pick, Saturday Picks etc.’

Yes, I am feeling distinctly out of synch with these picks so let’s get to the first Saturday games of the year that follow a really entertaining Thursday night game the I picked totally wrong…

Texans @ Jets (+6.5)

So it is perfectly logical that the Houston Texans run of nine wins came to an end last week, but a loss to a division rival who are also in contention for the playoffs is pretty understandable so I don’t want to ding them too badly. However, this week they travel to face a New York Jets team who are coming off a win and get to welcome a dome team into the elements of an open field as this is the Texans first road game since week eleven. The Texans offence relies on the run as a foundation and the Jets rush defence currently ranks twenty-third in the league by DVOA. I like the Texans to win this game but the points worry me as the only big road win the Texans have was against the Jaguars. The Jets aren’t exactly great either but if I’m getting this many points I’m tempted enough to nervously back them.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Browns @ Broncos (-3.5)

This is an interesting game for me as the Denver Broncos basically dropped out of the playoff race last week with a bad road loss to the San Francisco 49ers team but they are a better team at home. However, this week they face a Cleveland Browns team who have won three out of their last four games and who have been competitive for a lot of the season. That said, their solitary road win was against the Bengals in week twelve and they lost badly to the Texans two weeks ago. The DVOA rankings still really like the Broncos but that extra half point worries me and so I’m going to nervously grab the points and hope I’m not being too clever for my own good.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Somehow there are only three weeks of the regular season left and it’s still nip and tuck in the picks competition with Dan’s Dad taking a slender one point lead and Dan narrowing the gap to single digits with his revised strategy, but given the quality of tonight’s game I’m not sure you will care about any of that so on to the pick.

Gee:    Week 14   7-9             Overall   108-100
Dan:    Week 14   10-6           Overall   100-108

Chargers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

I think that the scheduling computers were clearly setup to improve the quality of the prime time games as this is another cracking Thursday night game that see the 10-3 LA Chargers visiting the 11-2 Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are carrying injuries to their impressive offences and have quarterbacks in the conversation for MVP but whilst the Chiefs have a 6-4 home record in this matchup  over the last ten years, they have won the last four and I have a feeling that they will still have enough to edge this one. The extra half point make me nervous, as does the limping of Tyreek Hill but Chargers have their own problems at running back and at home on a Thursday night I’m leaning towards the Chiefs.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Week Fifteen Trivia

‘There is something special about the last knockings of a season in whatever sport you follow. There seems to be a new twist at every turn and this season’s main events are obviously the TWF Picks and Trivia competitions. With the Picks far too close to call and Dan making a late charge with some interesting strategies this will go right to the line.

I am pleased to report that as expected both Gee and Dan correctly identified the 49’ers as the answer to Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?

And so to the run in to the end of the regular season.

For week 15 I’m going to stay in last season.

We’re all rushing round getting ready for the holidays but: Which team was last in the league for rushing yards in 2017/18?’

Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills are one of four teams in the AFC with a 7-6 record and do have a shot at a wildcard spot but they also have to play the Miami Dolphins twice and face the Patriots next week. As such, they have to win at least two of those and hope to get into the playoffs. The Dolphins are one of the hardest teams to predict given that their plays is incredibly up and down, they are ranked twenty-eight overall by DVOA, and yet they have a 6-7 record. The Dolphins impressive win against the Patriots on Monday would give me pause, except that I have no faith in their ability to play consistently from week to week and for whatever reason they do give the Patriots problems at home. As such, I’m backing the Bills to win out in this one and they only need a field goal to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bengals @ Vikings (-10.5)

This could be a really painful game for me as the Bengals leave Cincinnati after a bad loss to the Bears and head off to face the Vikings in Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off three straight road games and only lost to the Panthers last week, but they are a much more balanced team than the Bengals not to mention a better one. The Vikings’ defence is going to cause the anaemic Bengals offence problems and with the injuries at linebacker mounting up I don’t see the Bengals covering this line in a tough stadium to play in.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Ravens @ Browns (+7.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are travelling to face the Cleveland Browns and I do wonder about picking the Browns to cover this one, but it feels like every time I do that I lose and so with the Ravens in the playoff hunt and still possessing the best defence and special teams in the league by DVOA I am backing them to cover. Although I will be interested to see what the Browns’ vocal new GM John Dorsey gets up to in the offseason.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Packers @ Panthers (+0.5)

The Carolina Panthers got the win last week against the Vikings and are part of a tight three way race in the NFC South. This week they face an excited Green Bay Packers who have their talisman back in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a slim hope of making the playoffs but they will need to win their final three games and Rodgers will have to hit the ground running in his first game back since breaking his collar bone. I can understand the excitement as the Packers had to win out last season to make the playoffs and they did, but it is a tough three games and the Packers did not look at all convincing without Rodgers as their quarterback. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rodgers gets the win on the road, but I’m not sure I can pick it.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jets @ Saints (-15.5)

This is an awful lot of points, but with the New York Jets losing starting quarterback Josh McCown for the rest of the season to a broken hand and the New Orleans Saints getting rookie sensation Marshon Lattimore back at corner as well as rookie running back Alvin Kamara clearing concussion protocol it doesn’t feel like the Jets will keep it close. I could regret it, but with the Saints having extra rest and being at home I think they are going to have a big game.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Eagles @ Giants (+7.5)

It is so frustrating that Carson Wentz is done for the year, but the Philadelphia Eagles will still be a tough team to face. The New York Giants continue to argue amongst themselves and I suspect that the end of the season can’t come soon enough. I think the Eagles will still win this game, but with a backup quarterback I can’t pick them to win by eight without seeing some evidence first.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Cardinals @ Washington (-4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have remained competitive in a lot of games despite the injuries and this week they travel to face a Washington team who have been equally beset by injury. The Cardinals defence is fifth in the league by DVOA and I think they will be competitive so whilst I think Washington are more likely to win, I’m not going to pick them to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Texans @ Jaguars (-11.5)

The Houston Texans have won one game in their last seven and travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars with an offence that ranks twentieth in the league by DVOA. This is a problem when you are facing the number two defence in the league by DVOA and the number one pass defence. The Texans rush attack doesn’t look to stack up that great against the comparatively weak Jaguars run defence either. The points give me some pause, and it still feels strange to see the Jaguars giving this number of points, but I don’t think anyone is going to fancy playing the Jaguars in the playoffs and this is going to be a tough game for the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks lost a bad tempered game to the Jaguars last week and are increasingly reliant on Russell Wilson to do the impossible as the injuries continue to mount on defence. The LA Rams lost to the Eagles last week and this game can be seen as something of a measuring stick on whether they are going to be a dangerous team in the playoffs. The Rams have made tremendous progress from last season, but do seem to have struggled against tough defences and this is a bad time to have some injury niggles on the offensive line. Still, with Bobby Wagner not having practised all week, the Seahawks must be worried even if it looks like the linebacker is going to try to play with his hamstring injury. The Rams have beaten the Seahawks in recent years and I think this is the time we find out how good they are going to be and I think they edge this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Titans @ 49ers (-1.5)

It is not often that you see a 3-10 team favoured over an 8-5 team but the Tennessee Titans are coming off an ugly loss to the Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers have won two straight since Jimmy Garoppolo became their starting quarterback. The Titans have been winning ugly this year, and really need this one to stay in the playoff hunt but Marcus Mariota has not looked great in his third season. I’m going to back the team with the momentum in this game and just hope that Garoppolo keeps his winning streak going for another week as he has to lose at some point.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Patriots @ Steelers (+2.5)

In a game that many see as deciding who will come out of the AFC to be in the Super Bowl by determining who will have home field advantage in the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers welcome the New England Patriots who are coming off a tough loss to the Dolphins. The Patriots will have Rob Gronkowski back from suspension and in recent years have shredded the Steelers’ cover two defence, which is worrying given the injury to Ryan Shazier. However, the Steelers’ offence feel like it has more than enough to keep up with the Patriots offence, particularly with there being injury problems for the Patriots at right tackle. The Patriots almost never lose two straight under Bill Belichick but getting points at home is too much for me to pass up in this cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Cowboys @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Oakland Raiders have really struggled this season and with the league’s worst defence by DVOA I see them struggling against a Dallas Cowboys team that has won two straight and seem to have got themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+6.5)

This week’s Monday night game see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs have really struggled and losing Gerald McCoy will really hurt a defence already ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA. The Falcons offence may not have reached the heights of last season, but having found a way to win against the Saints despite Matt Ryan throwing three interceptions last week I expect them to win again this week. I’m just not sure they will win by a touchdown on the road given that they haven’t managed it all season.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Well here we are with this week’s pick, have picked a slender two pick lead last week, I hope I can keep the momentum up.

Gee:      Week 14   10-6                   Overall   97-111
Dan:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   95-113

Browns @ Bills (-9.5)

I think you would have to have a heart of stone to not want the Browns to get a win, but they are running out of time and it is hard to see where they might get it. The Bills have struggled on defence, but have a running game that ranks first in the league by DVOA yet has been reliant on LeSean McCoy. I’m not sure that the Browns can win this game on the road, and it has been a while since they have been within ten points, but laying this many points as the Bills worries me and so in the end I am very nervously backing the Browns to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Packers @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears have such a long list of injuries, but it does look like there are things that can be built upon next season. This week they welcome a Packers team coming off a big win against the Seahawks. The Packers need to win all their remaining games to have a chance at getting to the playoffs, but whilst I can’t predict if they can pull that off or not, I think they will win this one. It’s just a question of whether they can cover these points, but in a season of varying performance levels, the Packers are look like they are coming together and so I think they will.

Gee’sPick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Steelers @ Bengals (+3.5)

This is a grudge game, and a chance for the Bengals to act as spoilers in a season that has fallen well short of where they hoped to have been. The Steelers are still chasing the playoffs, but injury has hit their receivers and they can’t expect two hundred and ninety-eight combined yards from Le’Veon Bell every week. I expect this to be a close game, and as the one with the most meaning for the Bengals, I just fancy them to cover getting three and a half points at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:     Steelers

Lions @ Giants (-4.5)

The Giants have been playing really well on defence in a rare case of offseason free-agents working out, but they have been struggling a little on offence. The Lions have been relying on Matthew Stafford so much this season, but the big questions for them will be how his injured finger will affect his ability to throw the ball. I am sure that Lions fans will be waiting for the wheels to fall off, and that might well be the case, but a five point win just feels like too much to ask for me. Although I could be very wrong about that…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Giants

Titans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The Chiefs keep finding a way to win, and are making a serious case to be considered the best team in the AFC. This week they welcome a Titans team that have made serious steps forward from last season, but one I am finding serially hard to predict week to week. This feels like a lot of points to me, but I’m not sure the Titans, for all their progress this year, are ready for this game in Arrowhead stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Chiefs

Colts @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Colts have been so up and down this season, and lost a key divisional game last week that likely puts them out of the playoff hunt. This week they travel to Minnesota to face a team that possibly think they are still in the playoff hunt, but who have been fighting through injuries all season. In recent weeks their defence has returned to their early season form, yet the big question is whether their offence can do enough to win. This makes the Vikings needing to win by five just that bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

Eagles @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens’ loss to the Patriots looks closer by the score than it actually was as it took successive punt miscues for the Ravens to get the chance to score. The Eagles however, are on a four week losing streak having had their season slip away from the early promise it showed. However, they did keep the game close when they hosted Washington last week, but they are on the road in Baltimore against a much tougher defence in this game, and so I seem them struggling to move the ball. The offence of the Ravens does make me worry, and in the end I’m not confident enough that they will cover this line to pick the Ravens, even if I think they will win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)

I face a similar dilemma in this game as I expect the Texans who have a good defence and a struggling offence to win at home, but the Jaguars are a much worse team than the Eagles, or at least are in terms of performance. More worrying, the last game that the Jaguars kept closer than seven was against the Texans back in week ten, so I’m really not sure what to do in this game. I am tempted by the points, but in the end with the Jaguars having little to play for and the Texans in a fight for the division, I am backing the Texans to cover this line, although I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

49ers @ Falcons (-13.5)

The Falcons’ number one offence by DVOA host the 49ers thirtieth ranked defence, and even without an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu the Falcons racked up a big win against the Rams last week. They were given some points by the Rams offence, but it is hard to see the 49ers doing much better in this one, and so I’m going to take the unusual step of laying the 13.5 as the Falcons are at home. It does make me a little nervous, but if you look through the year, of the twelve games the 49ers have lost, half of them have been by over fourteen points so it is not so odd they might do it again on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Saints @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Saints offence seems to have struggled over the last couple of weeks and this week they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. I’m not sure what is likely to happen in this game as the Cardinals have struggled all year, whilst the Saints have been up and down. By DVOA the Saints are a better team, but having narrowly lost to the Dolphins in the pouring rain last week and beaten Washington the week before, I’m going to back the Cardinals at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Broncos (+3.5)

This is an interesting line to me as the Patriots looked like you might be able to get at them even before they lost Rob Gronkowski for the year. However, Tom Bray has been managing without his favourite target thanks to the Patriots famed flexibility of game-plan and a much improved offensive line. However, Brady’s record is not that great in Denver and the Broncos’ pass defence has looked as strong as ever. The problem is that the Broncos offence has not been playing well and you can run the ball against them. I am strongly tempted by the Broncos getting points at home, but can’t discount how the Patriots keep finding a way this season and the problems the Broncos are having on offence. This could be a horrible mistake.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Raiders @ Chargers (+2.5)

Teams that get points at home who are not terrible are often tempting to pick, but with yet more injuries hampering the Chargers I can’t see them beating a Raiders team who will be desperate to get back on track after losing to the Chiefs last week. With the advantage of the extra days of rest I think the Raiders will do just that as they are a much better team.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

This should one of the games of the week, with a surging Buccaneers team travelling to Dallas to face a Cowboys team who just lost to the Giants again. There is already talk that Dak Prescott should sit for Tony Romo, which seems somewhat premature although he will need to bounce back as his performance has dipped in recent weeks. However, the Buccaneers defence has rounded into form and I expect a closer game than this line suggests. I’m not sure if the Buccaneers can win, but I expect them to keep the game closer than eight.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Buccaneers

Panthers @ Washington (-4.5)

Washington really needs this game, but whilst their offence continues to roll, their defence has struggled and they have not been convincing. The Panthers have been playing tough in recent weeks, and five of their eight losses have been by three points or less and so I think they could keep this one close. For whatever reason, I can’t bring myself to pick Washington to cover this line so I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Washington