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AAF: Sacksonville Jaguars

17 Sunday Dec 2017

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So for this week’s amateur adventure film I took a look at the self-appointed Sacksonville Jaguars defensive line going up against the Seattle Seahawks in Jacksonville.

There is always an interaction between a defence’s pass rush and their ability to cover, and it has to be said that there were not a huge number of plays where the defensive line got straight through the Seahawk’s offensive line. Considering the reputation of both units this is a little surprising, but clearly the offensive line has improved over the season and with the addition of Duane Brown. However, the Seahawks also worked round the defensive line with screen plays, outside runs as well as relying on the manoeuvrability of Russell Wilson to escape pressure and make plays. That Wilson very much did, although whilst the Seahawks were only recorded as giving up two sacks, they gave up another pair of sacks that were negated by penalties against Dante Fowler for illegal use of hands.

So before people begin to wonder where all the focus on the Jaguars has got to, let’s get on with looking at their defensive line. Going back to my comment on the interaction between coverage and pass rush, part of what makes the defensive unit of the Jaguars successful is that they can get enough pressure whilst regularly only rushing their four linemen. On the majority of the defensive snaps the defensive line are the only ones rushing the passer and this allows them not to take risks in coverage. Now this is not to say that this is a static group of players as they lined up with a number of different alignments to stress pass protection and there was also an impressive rotation of players with several catching the eye.

The obvious place to start is with Calais Campbell who friend of the pod Nick Ferguson suggested to Dan this week was one of the top five defensive players of the season. Campbell lined up at both end and inside at tackle and was consistently able to cause disruption even if he did not get any sacks in this game.

Another of the line players who leapt out to me was Yannick Ngakoue who played mainly at end, but on several snaps was stood up as part of moving front and who rushed the passer like a blitzing linebacker although on one play he dropped into coverage from defensive end. He may have only got one tackle but he should have had two sacks if one of them had not been cancelled out by one of the previously mentioned Dante Fowler penalties.

The final single player I wanted list was Malik Jackson who was the other player to get a sack that stood as he got Russel Wilson on what turned out to be the Seahawks’ final drive. This was the third consecutive play on which right guard Ethan Pocic gave up pressure and was really the only time that the Seahawks line looked as bad as has been discussed throughout the season but it was a good inside move that Jackson used to get pressure for a second consecutive play that resulted in a sack. This did not surprise me as he had got penetration throughout the game.

I think it is likely to be hard to separate the pass rush from coverage for most good defences unless the pass rush is incredibly quick to the quarterback, but it is clear to me that the Jacksonville Jaguars are number one in pass defence by DVOA for a reason, and whilst their secondary clearly plays a part, this line is not one to be taken likely and their ability to rush four and still get pressure makes a huge contribution to the collective whole.

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AAF: Deshaun Watson

05 Sunday Nov 2017

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I am running out of time a little bit this weekend, but with the injury curse hitting the Houston Texans and me planning to take a look at their offence versus the Seattle Seahawks defence – I thought I would look at the good and bad of Deshaun Watson whilst I still could this season.

To do this I’ve picked two plays from the first and second quarters which represent the pass that stood out to me, the interception, Watson’s longest run and the sack that lost the most yards.

The first of these plays was a fifty-nine yard touchdown pass to Will Fuller. In a way this is a simple play. The Texans lined up in 11 personel, with tight end Ryan Griffin initially lined up wide left and then motioning back onto the line whilst Deshaun Watson is stood back from the play to complete the shotgun formation. The Texans then run a simple play action pass, with the fake being enough to hold Seahawks safety Earl Thomas at his starting position for long enough that he is not able to turn and get over to a streaking Fuller to stop him catching the ball behind the defence and scoring a touchdown. The impressive thing about Watson on this play is that Dwight Freeney is coming off the right side of the defence and it is running back Lamar Miller who has to block him. This is not an easy assignment and Fuller can only shove Freeney to delay the rush, but whilst keeping his eyes downfield Watson shuffles in the pocket to avoid the rush and then throws a deep ball over the defence for Fuller to get under and catch falling into the end-zone.

If that was the good, the equalising touchdown for the Seahawks was an interception thrown by Watson on his next series demonstrates some of his youthfulness. Again the Texans lined up with 11 personnel in a shotgun formation, this time on third and ten, with Watson executing a straight drop and throwing an interception. Watson does look right before locking onto Deandre Hopkins coming across the field from the left and throwing the ball, but Earl Thomas simply sits in his starting position watching Watson and jumps the route to intercept the ball and takes it back for a touchdown. I have no way of knowing what Watson’s read should be for this play, but given that Earl Thomas is one of the league’s best safeties, I have to imagine that accounting for him should be part of this and this will be a pass Watson would love to have back..

The run that I want to talk about demonstrates the danger of an athletic quarterback. The Texans are lined up with 11 personnel again, still with Watson in a shotgun position but with Lamar Miller lined up to the left of Watson and further back while Ryan Griffin lined up as full back to the left and further forward of Watson. This is another play action play, but this time defensive tackle Nazair Jones gets good pressure while being held up by right tackle Breno Giacomini, but the pair are very close to Watson when he looks up from the play action hand off. Watson evades the pressure and having seen that Kam Chancellor and both linebackers of the Seahawks have dropped back into zones leaving plenty of space in front of him; Watson takes off and runs for a first down before he has to slide – a very safe way for Watson to pick up eighteen yards.

Towards the end of the second half on second and eight with fifty-two seconds left on the clock, the Texans line up in shotgun with an empty backfield. I am pretty certain they are in 11 personnel with Ryan Griffin lined up to the right of the line, and running back Alfred Blue lined up wide right, but it is hard to make out Blue’s number to be certain. What is clear is that the Seahawks are lined up in a nickel with corner Justin Coleman looking into the backfield from the right side of the defence. Coleman is lined up in a press position opposite the Texans’ stacked receivers on the left hand side of their formation, but when the ball is snapped Coleman immediately rushes the passer and does not get picked up at all. Coleman rushing from the right and Michael Bennett who lined up as left end meet as they sack Deshaun Watson. In this play Watson starts of looking right, and doesn’t sense Coleman’s pressure until it is too late for him avoid the sack.

So what do I make of this overall? There is a huge amount of potential in Deshaun Watson, and whilst his interceptions ultimately cost the Texans the game, without his play they would never have been in the game and how many rookie quarterbacks could throw for over four hundred yards against the Seahawks’ defence in Seattle. Yes Watson is athletic, but the pocket movement on the touchdown to Fuller is as exciting as the long run play. The injury is yet another frustrating one for a league that seems beset by them to franchise players, and it really sucks to have the rookie season of an exciting prospect cut short like this. However, it does seem like the Texans have a quarterback they can develop and I’m sure everyone will be excited about him next season.

We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know

28 Thursday Sep 2017

Posted by in Thursday Night Football

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The weekend saw a number of statements and responses to Donald Trump’s rhetoric about disrespecting the flag across the weekend’s NFL games, and several tight finishes. I will pick up the actual football in a minute, but I feel I have to take a moment to broaden a little on what I wrote at the weekend given what happened before kick offs of the week three games.

The kneeling of Colin Kaepernick, and the other players was to protest social injustice and police brutality. This has been reframed as protesting the flag and anthem by those that object to these actions, and by Trump himself. The response from the NFL over the weekend sought to project unity against the criticism of Trump and to say we stand with these players using their first amendment rights, even if they don’t agree with the action themselves.

This does not look to be a problem that is going away any time soon as the actions of the players and owners still upset people, and we shall have to see how things proceed. However, I do think it is important to keep stating the players are not protesting the flag or the anthem, they are making a statement on society.

And so on to the football, which saw multiple close game and signs that teams are finding their way a bit on offence. It was also a topsy-turvy weekend that saw several unexpected results including the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to the Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins losing to the New York Jets. The Baltimore Ravens travelled to London and were totally outplayed by the Jacksonville Jaguars, losing 44-7.

What does this tell us? The honest answer is that we don’t know what we don’t know – i.e. we only have a small sample size and until we get well into October we should treat our general feelings about a team with a pinch of salt. The Cincinnati Bengals have a better defence than their 0-3 record might indicate, but they have a huge amount of work to do if they want to finish with a respectable record, yet alone think about playoffs, which must surely be out of reach. There are plenty more teams like this and I am excited to take a closer look now that coaching tape has hit the European Gamepass site.

Schedule allowing I shall be taking a look at the coaching tape of the Tennessee Titans’ offence taking on the Seattle Seahawks’ defence to see how the managed to be effective against the scary Seahawks’ front seven.

And so onto tonights game, but before that here are the results of our picks last week.

Gee:      Week 3   7-9                       Overall   25-23
Dan:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   20-28

Bears @ Packers (-7.5)

This is an interesting line given that the Green Bay Packers needed overtime to get a win against the winless Bengals on Sunday, and the Chicago Bears just beat the Steelers at home. The Bears are on the road, and I would expect the Packers to find a way to win. However, given their continued injury problems I can’t quite bring myself to back the Packers to win by eight. I may well suffer from the stupidity of picking against Aaron Rodgers at home for a second week in a row, but that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Early Season Frustrations

21 Thursday Sep 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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It is not just that the Bengals have got off to an 0-2 start that has me frustrated at the start of the season, although it doesn’t help.

In Europe we are bedding a brand new NFL Gamepass site, and whilst there are some good points like the quality of the streams now that they are being hosted over here, and being able to download games to your tablet or phone for watching at a later date, there are plenty of teething issues. A quick search will find you talk of this video is not available in your region, which appears to be some kind of connection/cache issue.

More frustrating are the tools that we have so far lost, that we were used to in the old system. The video player is more basic, and we are no longer able to navigate via play by play bookmarks. Even more difficult for someone like myself, is that the coaching tape is not available yet and all I’ve heard so far is that it will be added soon. Given that this is one of my favourite things about having Gamepass, not to mention that it is putting on hold my regular tape break downs here on the blog, it is really frustrating not to have it already.

So if the presentation is getting there, but missing key things I am used to, how have the games been? Here we get to a meaty discussion that seems to have been the theme for a lot of the NFL coverage that I consume. The quality of play at the moment is a point of contention, and it seems to break to down into a couple of areas.

The first is that under the current collective bargain agreement (or CBA), practice time and specifically the amount of hitting that can be done has been reduced. Now this is for player safety and is a hard thing to argue about, but coaches have been talking about it limiting their ability to develop players. You could write a book on how to coach a team and split reps at practice, so I’m not going to delve heavily into this, but there are two areas that I think is worth highlighting.

Unusually for me, these are both on offence, and might help why according to some commentators the league’s defences have had the upper hand in the early season.

There are some positions where due to the amount of communication involved, there is no real substitute for live reps, even if you are trying to make use of new training advances like the remote controlled mobile tackling dummies. One of them is the offensive line and there seem to be fewer good ones in the NFL at the moment.

This is being highlighted at the moment with a different approach to training camp, with many teams seemingly focused on getting into the season healthy as much as preparation and so offences may improve through the season but are not looking sharp right now. Some teams actually embrace this timetable for peaking their performance with Pete Carroll explicitly stating that the Seahawks focus is to peak in November and December, whilst Bill Belichick has talked about not even having his roster settled until October.

I’m wary of focussing on the Seahawks too much when discussing offensive line play, as it is an area of the roster that they have consistently not invested in heavily be it draft picks, or free-agents. However, whilst teams have different approaches, a consistent theme I have heard apart from how hard it is to develop players is the quality of player entering the league.

In terms of athleticism, there has been massive improvement in terms of the size and speed of players, particularly in terms of how quickly larger players now move. However, the college game, and for the purposes of this particular blog, specifically the offences run by the majority of college games is not developing players for the NFL.

Now in fairness this is not their job. A college head coach is paid to win football games, and so they should do that in the best way they can. But with the popularity of spread offences, there are highly touted, physically gifted offensive line players, who have never taken up a three-point stance or used an aggressive pass set. Now the NFL teams have to scout and work with what they have available, and there are still good linemen out there. However, I keep hearing discussions about a developmental league, and it would seem a very good idea. Not only would it help young players develop, but it might solve the other area of the offence I want to focus on, namely, the quarterback.

Now the reason I want to mention quarterback is not just Andy Dalton’s struggles over the first two games, but the way we cover them and the simple fact that there are nowhere near enough of them to go around.

Given the talent pool that is the continental United States, it might be considered surprising that with only thirty-two spots to fill, that not every team can have a quality starter. However, it is a very complex position to play, requiring a particular set of skills. There is some variation of course, but a quarterback needs to be able to read what is happening on defence, co-ordinate the response, and have the physical tools to get the ball to where it needs to go. It might help if they are athletically gifted as a running quarterback does help open up other ways to attack a defence, but it is not essential.

Generally, the media put too much of the credit on a quarterback’s shoulders when a team wins, and blames them too heavily when a team loses, but given the amount of control a quarterback has over an offence this is seen as part of playing the position.

The problem we have is not only supply and demand, but again goes back to college and practise. Along with the spread system, college quarterbacks increasingly don’t have to call their own plays as signs are used from the side-line. They may rarely take snaps under centre, and this all has to change dramatically upon entering the NFL.

You only have to look at the slow development of a player like Jared Goff, who is having to learn the fundamentals of his trade whilst already a pro, and a combination of media and owners mean that a lot of pressure comes to bear when a high draft pick doesn’t get on the field quickly. This is particularly the case if a team is bad, as they will often be the team drafting a quarterback early. The issue is that whilst a quarterback will only develop so much without reps, the plan to let them take their lumps early is all very well unless the team around them isn’t good enough to succeed. In fact it can actually harm a player if you can’t protect a quarterback and he gets hit too much causing injury or develops bad habits.

And remember, we’ve already discussed that good offensive lines are not exactly getting easier to build.

So we have the current situation with not enough quality quarterbacks to go round, and a number of them (even quality players) under pressure as they can’t be protected.

So you get NFL defences on top. These things do go in cycle, but a combination of issues developing talent and the readiness of that talent could cause a real issue in terms of quality of play. We can’t go back to endless hitting and two a day training camps as we know that is detrimental to player health. I just hope that new ways to develop talent are found, and that if it does, there will be coaching tape for me to marvel at.

And so on to the week three picks.

Gee:      Week 2   9-7                       Overall   18-14
Dan:      Week 2   8-8                       Overall   15-17

Rams @ 49ers (+2.5)

I think Dan thought I was little crazy when I said I was looking forward to this game, but I genuinely am. The LA Rams beat the Colts by a large margin in week one, yet travel to San Francisco with a 1-1 record and Aaron Donald back in the fold to face an 0-2 49ers team. I am interested in looking at how both teams are developing under rookie head coaches as they come back from poor performances in recent years. However, the Rams have shown more this season, and with a surprising eighteen place difference in their ranking by overall DVOA and going into what has been a poorly attended Levi’s stadium, I am trusting the team with a win to get another despite the record of home teams in the Thursday night game. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Super Bowl Preview

05 Sunday Feb 2017

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The big day is here, and despite the myriad of coverage that comes with the Super Bowl, here comes my own thoughts on the season that the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots have had and what we might see in tonight’s/tomorrow morning’s final game of the season. And there will be no discussion of the colour of the team’s jerseys!

The Atlanta Falcons were seeded second in the NFC having won their division with an 11-5 record. Splitting the season into four game sections as the coaches do, we can see that after losing their first game the Falcons won the first quarter by winning the next three games, they then split the next eight games across the middle quarters, but won out through the final quarter of the season and carried that momentum through the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

Their offence has played well all season, reaping the benefits of the blossoming relationship between offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and his quarterback Matt Ryan that led respectively to Shanahan being the expected head coach of the San Francisco 49ers and Ryan being named league MVP. Having focussed on what Ryan did and did not like from their first season together, the offence soared with Ryan throwing for just shy of five thousand yards, thirty-eight touchdowns and just seven interceptions. The offence scored thirty points or more in thirteen of their sixteen regular season games and both playoff games. This year they managed to balance the run game with the pass game, and that if defences focussed on stopping Julio Jones then Ryan was more than happy to distribute the ball with it not being unusual for five or more players to make catches during the game and thirteen different players caught touchdowns this year.

If the offence is what drives this Falcons team, then the defence has managed to do enough to win, which is impressive given the number of rookies and second year players that are contributing on this side of the ball. Their pass defence improved down the stretch despite losing Desmond Trufont to injury for most of the season, but their rush defence ranks only twenty-ninth by DVOA. They had a league leading fifteen and half sacks from Vic Beasley whilst one of their rookies Keanu Neal was second on the team in tackles as he drew comparisons with Seattle safety Kam Chancellor with his physical play. This is a unit that is a work in progress, but the profile of the players they are putting together is beginning to resemble the template of the defence in Seattle, which is hardly surprising given that this is where Head Coach Dan Quinn’s came from.

If the Falcons are melding their experienced offence with a young developing defence, then the Patriots are continuing their constant evolution in the relentless pursuit of excellence. This is the challenge that all NFL teams face, but few if any can match the success of Bill Belichik and Tom Brady, which is even more impressive given that it is taking place in a time of free agency and rules designed to enable all teams to be competitive.

The Patriots may have been missing Tom Brady for their first four games thanks to a dubious punishment from the deflate gate saga, from which I shall spare you a recap, but they still won three of those games including a 27-0 drubbing of the Houston Texans with their third string quarterback. Once Brady returned the offence hummed and the Patriots only lost one more game against the Seattle Seahawks as they went 14-2 and locked up the number one seed.

The Patriots offence is hard to generalise about as their approach changes from week to week depending on the opposition. It is perfectly possible for their incredible quarterback to be handing the ball off for the majority of the game if the plan demands it, or he could make fifty plus throws as the team pass their way to victory. What has been impressive is that they have achieved the results they have with Brady missing the games he did and Rob Gronkowski hardly playing this season thanks to injury. When he is on the field Gronkowski is putting together an argument to be considered one of the best tight ends to have played the game, but free agent pickup Martellus Bennett is a very good tight end in his own right and was second on the team in receiving yards this year and caught seven touchdowns. The other big free agent addition to the offence was receiver Chris Hogan, signed from the Buffalo Bills, who chipped in with nearly seven hundred receiving yards of his own and four touchdowns. It is worth noting that despite varying usage, running back LeGarrette Blount still ran for over a thousand yards this season and I haven’t even mentioned Julian Edelman who caught ninety-eight balls for eleven hundred yards himself.

If the offence was its usual supple and efficient self, the defence was less obviously excellent, but led the league in scoring defence and in the end it is points that really matter. The talk leading into the Super Bowl has been of Belichick’s ability to take away what the opposition does best, and certainly Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia are excellent coaches, but all coaches want to stop what the opposition does best. The question is usually how much of your resources are you prepared to commit to stopping that one thing as due to there only being eleven men on the field, by focussing on one thing you weaken the defence in other areas. One of the Patriots’ tactics that is often discussed has been the way they double the best receiver of the opposition with their second corner back and a safety, whilst placing their best corner man to man on the opposition second receiver to shut him down whilst the double team limits the number one receiver. However, even this is a simplification as what Belichick does so particularly well is place his players in a position to maximise their talent and so whilst Maclolm Butler is the most familiar name amongst the Patriots’ corners, thanks to his five foot eleven frame he tends not to be matched up against big physical receivers such as a Julio Jones.

This leading nicely into the Super Bowl matchup so let’s dive into that and I will start with the matchup I am most excited about, which is the Falcons’ offence versus the Patriots’ defence. The ability of the Patriots’ defence to force their opposition to play the game in a way they don’t want to will be tested by the flexibility of the Falcons’ offence approach. The Falcons are used to teams trying to take away Julio Jones, and with Matt Ryan’s ability to distribute the ball round his skill players and take advantage of both running backs’ ability to catch the ball coming out of the backfield they will feel confident in being able to move the ball. The Patriots run defence was ranked fourth in the league by DVOA and the injury to centre Alex Mack could hamper the interior of the Falcons’ offensive line, but if he gets time to throw the ball it is not hard to see Matt Ryan and his receivers ranked first by DVOA in passing attack take advantage of a Patriots defence that only ranked twenty-third against the pass. However, the Falcons will need to score points against a defence that may have given up yards, but their bend don’t break defence obviously limited their opponents effective, so as is so commonly the case red zone efficiency will be key. One last note on this matchup, this game pits the offence with the best yards after catch in the Falcons against the defence with the best yards allowed after the catch. Something may have to give.

The reason that the Falcons ability to score is so important is that for a lot of the time it has enabled their defence to play with a lead, and this has allowed the defence to rush the passer and do enough to win. However, unlike the Patriots’ disciplined front seven, the Falcons’ defence was twenty-ninth against the run, and what better way to counter act the Falcons high powered offence than for the Patriots to run the ball to control the clock and minimise the time the Falcons have the ball? There are some who are talking about how Belichick will put the ball in Brady’s hands to win the game, but I’m not so sure the ever pragmatic Belichick isn’t perfectly happy to muddy the game and win with defence like he did against the St Louis Rams and their legendary greatest show on turf offence. However, they have plenty of passing options to attack a young defence who might not have the experience to disguise their coverages and pass rushes, and if Brady goes to the line knowing what defence he is facing then he will simply excel. Although his approach is similar to the Seahawks, Dan Quinn and his staff have been more prepared to play man coverage with a single high safety mixed in with the trademark Seattle zone three coverage that also utilises a single high safety, but Brady will know what to look for to take advantage of this. The Patriots’ quarterback is also adept at stepping up in the pocket to avoid edge pass rushers such as Vic Beasley, and the return of line coach Dante Scarnecchia has seen a big improvement in the Patriots offensive line and much steadier play. In their playoff game against the Patriots, the Houston Texans were able to get pressure up the middle and rattle Brady, but whether the Falcons’ will be able to get an interior rush that can affect Brady will be a big question in this game.

Overall, it is hard to be definitive how this game will be played given it features two teams who have a lot of flexibility in their approach. There are a lot of narratives surrounding this game, the Falcons having the better players but the Patriots having the right team, Brady and Belichick’s excellence in the offseason, the supposed extra motivation for particular players which seems to be a bit of a nonsense given they are playing in a Super Bowl. Certainly more players on the Patriots have experience of playing in a Super Bowl, which might help, but this is not Dan Quinn’s first time coaching in a Super Bowl. I can see the Falcons running away with it, or the Patriots grinding out a convincing win, although I confess that with their experience I would favour the Patriots in a close game but not by much. The real x factor is the player we don’t know who will turn the game, Malcolm Butler made his name by his last second gaoling interception against the Seahawks, and you wouldn’t put it past the Patriots to have someone do this again with an unknown player, or for one of the first or second year players on the Falcons’ defence to really announce their arrival.

I for one am just looking forward to watching the game.

Goodbye to the Disappointed Divisional Teams

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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We have said goodbye to four more teams, and are only three games that matter away from the end of the season. Of course our thoughts turn towards the conference championship games this weekend, but before we consider them fully let us take a moment to look at the state of the four departed and consider what was a truly spectacular game on Sunday.

The early game saw the Seattle Seahawks finally finish a difficult down year for them that still netted them a division title and a playoff win. They started the game off strongly, moving the ball on their first drive and scoring a touchdown to take an early lead that they held onto until around two thirds of the way through second quarter and were unable to reclaim. The Seahawk’s offence was let down by its structural flaw in the offensive line, and so they were unable to keep up with the Atlanta Falcons superb offence. It is not too often that you see a guard step on his quarterback’s foot and cost his team a safety. The Seahawks managed to run for one hundred yards, but with only twenty-one carries they were not as committed to it as the previous week, and they were unable to do enough through the air to make up for it although both Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson had respectable days in gaining eighty yards each. However, combine the problems on offence with a defence that was missing Earl Thomas at safety and there were too many problems to overcome.

The Seahawks should have Thomas back next year, but their focus should be improving the offensive line. The problem is that this was the case last season so while they appear to have the cap space to address this, you can’t honestly predict if they will or not address their offensive line this offseason. Still, you would expect the Seahawks to be competitive again next season and I will be curious to see how Pete Caroll approaches next season with chatter already surfacing that he will be addressing some aspect of his player’s behaviour that adversely affected the team this years. I can’t see him changing completely, but as ever I look forward to seeing what happens in Seattle.

The second game on Sunday was unsurprising in its result, and the Patriots still covered the huge line in beating the Houston Texans, but the actual game did not exactly flow how many predicted. The Texans offence struggled, and benefitted from some rare mistakes from the Patriots to take advantage of good field position. However, the problems with Brock Osweiler’s play at quarterback still continued to hamper this team’s efforts and this surely will be a big focus in the offseason. There is some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but the return of JJ Watt to play alongside Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney could produce a terrifying front seven and a defence that could be as scary as any in the league. Even without Watt they were able to scheme pressure up the middle and rattle Tom Brady, even if Brady was able to find a way to grind out the game as he usually does.

The Texans could be a really good team, but they have to address the quarterback problem. This is something of a surprise given that Bill O’Brien is an offensive minded head coach who has a reputation as a quarterback whisperer, but he can only coach the players he is given. He seemed to learn the lesson of last season and so stuck with Osweiler until he just couldn’t any more, but it is worrying that receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a better season with the rotating cast of quarterbacks that were throwing him the ball last season than with Osweiler and Savage this. If they can get the right balance on offence then this team could take a real step forward, but with their recent history who knows if they will be able to manage it.

The first game on Sunday was one of the best of the season and certainly the highlight of the playoffs to date. What started as a dominating performance by the Green Bay Packers, which saw them gain a 21-3 lead by half way through the second quarter ended in a tight contest that saw three fifty plus yard field goals in the last two minutes.

The Cowboys success this year was based up their two stellar rookies performing behind their excellent offensive line. Thrust from developmental backup to opening day starting quarterback by Tony Romo’s preseason fractured vertebrae, Dak Prescott has been remarkably calm and safe with the ball from the get go and as the season progressed so did his range of passing. Prescott’s ability to run the ball also complements rookie running back sensation Ezekiel Elliott and the pair of them led the Cobwoys to the playoffs. They were slow starters, which could very well be attributed to nerves, but Elliott ran for one hundred and twenty-five yards whilst Prescott threw for over three hundred. There is no shame in falling short against the Packers, particularly as it took some remarkable play for Aaron Rodgers and ridiculously difficult catch by Jared Cook to setup the winning field goal.

The Cowboys defence has struggled to keep up with the performance of the offence, and whilst they were solid enough in overall DVOA ranking at seventeen, they have struggled to rush the passer and they will need to address this side of the ball in the offseason to improve. It will be disappointing to go 13-3 and not get a playoff win, but this team is a very good position to continue its success next year, and if they continue to draft as strongly as they have in recent years then I see no reason bar injury that they won’t do so. Given how well the pick of Elliott has worked out, I will be giving them a bigger benefit of the doubt when draft time rolls round!

The final game of the weekend saw a second team depart the playoffs without a win after a bye week when the Kansas City Chiefs were beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers despite scoring two touchdowns to the Steelers’ zero.

The Chiefs have been a very good regular season team over the last two years, but have struggled to make this really count with a deep playoff run. This season’s team was a very balanced matchup of offence and defence with very good special teams. However, there were flaws in this team that came back to bite them in this game. The Chiefs defence has been solid this year, but they have been very reliant on turnovers and only managed one in this game. However, despite having a poor rushing defence and giving up one hundred and seventy yards on the ground to Le’Veon Bell, the Chiefs defence limited the Steelers to six field goals and so it was not the defence that cost the Chiefs this game.

The Chiefs have relied on a speed and big plays to supplement their offence, and the Steelers made a point of kicking away from Tyreek Hill to negate his return ability on special teams and their defence was able to limit the Chiefs’ offence for large stretches of the game. Whilst the Steelers racked up nearly four hundred yards of the offence, the Chiefs were only able to amass a little under two hundred and thirty and this was their real problem. Their offence, based as it is on trickery and speed was unable to move the ball consistently enough to win against the Steelers.

Moving into next season, the Chiefs will likely to be just as consistent again, but it seems they will need to find some extra level if they are to take the next step. Shoring up a porous run defence will go a long way to helping that side of the ball, whilst making the offence more consistent will help the other side. A more consistent run game could be found simply from their running backs being healthier, but continuing the improvements to the offensive line would help as well. However, there are already questions being asked about whether Alex Smith is capable of the level of play required to win big in the playoffs. Given some of the names that have graced the Super Bowl that might be a little over the top, but the era defining defences that are needed to carry such quarterbacks far into the playoffs are not easy to come by, and it is not hard to see the Chiefs drafting a quarterback to develop behind a thirty-two year old Smith.

Saturday Divisional Games

14 Saturday Jan 2017

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Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Earl Thomas robbed us of the chance to see a full strength Seattle defence go up against the number one ranked offence by DVOA in the league, but this should still be a fascinating contest.

The Falcons have the options on offence, and the players to challenge Seattle down the seams and see if they find a weakness in the secondary without Thomas patrolling the rear of the defence. Their offence has been in great shape all year, moving away on the reliance on Julio Jones to spread the ball around a number of receivers and the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have caused many teams problems out of the backfield. They are a team that run more traditional sets with a fullback than almost any other team in the league, and I am looking forward to seeing how Kyle Shanahan plans to attach the Seahawks defence. The Atlanta defence has pretty ordinary for most of the season, but Vic Beasley led the lead in sacks and with the offence playing so well, they only have to do so much to keep the Falcons in the game.

I was impressed by the the Seahawks renewed commitment to the run last week, which helped their offensive line play better and sparked an improved performance. Against a defence that ranks twenty-ninth in rush defence by DVOA this might help the Seahawks limit the time the Falcons offence has on the field, but given the problems they’ve had with the offensive line you could see Vic Beasley getting pressure on Russel Wilson. The defence also looked better last week, but the Falcons offence is a very different prospect that the Lions with their injured quarterback.

In the end I fancy the Falcons to win, but we really shouldn’t discount the playoff experience of the Seahawks, but the problems they have had against the pass since Thomas was injured could really hurt them in this one.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots went 14-2 this season despite having Tom Brady suspended for four games, losing one with him and one without. In their previous meeting the Patriots ran out 27-0 winners with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback so it is hard to see anything other than a Patriots’ win in this game.

The offence has been its usual efficient self, and has barely missed a beat since Rob Gronkowski was lost to injury as it appears that nothing can slow down Brady who has managed to get himself into the MVP discussion despite his suspension. The defence struggled earlier in the season, but has come on over the course of the season and whilst finishing a modest sixteenth by DVOA, they will have scheme enough for a Texans offence that has sputtered all season.

The Texans got their win last week, and will no doubt want to put in a better performance than their last visit to Gillette Stadium. However, whilst their defence should be competitive, with a number of players stepping out of JJ Watt’s shadow to lead the team, the offence is likely to struggle. The Texans stressed surrounding Brock Osweiler with options in the passing game, but he struggled to make use of them for much of the year. He looked a bit better last week, but I’m not sure he’ll have the tools to attack this Patriots defence. I can see Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney causing problems with their pass rush abilitiy, and AJ Abouye has looked like an excellent pick up at corner, but you just have a feeling that the Patriots will find a way to win out in the end. They have for most of this season.

Farewell to the Wildcards

14 Saturday Jan 2017

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Last weekend saw us wave goodbye to the four wildcard teams as each suffered double digit losses on the road with the closest margin of victory being thirteen.

The first to go out was the Oakland Raiders, whose strong season started to fall apart when they lost Derek Carr to a broken leg in week sixteen and actually went into their wildcard game with rookie quarterback Conor Cook as their starting QB. You could see his potential, but Cook is not ready to start yet and it showed in this game. He wasn’t helped by the turmoil on the Raiders’ offensive line as Pro Bowl tackle Donald Penn was already out of the game with a fracture in his knee, and Pro Bowl centre Rodney Hudson had to come out for a period as well. The Raiders’ defence has been troublesome all year, ranked in the twenties by DVOA despite some good looking free agent pickups and it was quickly apparent how reliant as a team the Raiders were on their breakout quarterback.

This only goes to highlight that there is a reason that quarterbacks are valuable to their team as the Raiders with their 12-4 record go home with Derek Carr injured, whilst the Houston Texans have soldiered on with JJ Watt for most of the season and travel to face the Patriots in this week’s divisional games. The Raiders should be ready for next season with Carr back from injury as long as the front office can improve the defence and keep the offence competitive.

The next team to be knocked out were there Detroit Lions who spent a large chunk of this season as fourth quarter comeback specialists, which was already something that is hard to rely on even before the quarterback who led all those scoring drives injured his hand. The Lions came into their game against the Seattle Seahawks on a three game losing streak since  Matthew Stafford’s injury, and were unable to do much of anything in this game. Their defence was unable to stop a Seahawk’s team that recommitted to the run and found a winning formula on offence, and the offence didn’t have the long strike plays to challenge the Seahawks secondary that was missing Earl Thomas at safety. Even if the Lions’ offence hadn’t been largely predicated on shorter throws, Stafford just hasn’t been the same quarterback since his injury, but the turnaround under offensive coordinator Job Bob Cooter does look to be a consistent upgrade, and so if the Lions can sort their defence that finished the year thirty-second by DVOA then they should be competitive again.

Moving to Sunday and the Miami Dolphins were basically out of this game in the first quarter when Antonio Brown scored two touchdowns and racked up over a hundred yards on two plays. Much has been made of the decision of the Dolphins to train in Miami leading up to a cold weather game in Pittsburgh, but it is hard not to conclude that they missed a trick there. Unfortunately, the secondary was too injured and not good enough to contain Brown and once they had the lead the Steelers were able to run the ball effectively. You would want to see more out of Ndamukong Suh given the contract the Dolphins gave him, but this was no one’s best day. The Steelers defence held the Dolphins in check, particularly Jay Ajayi in the run game and had some big hits on Matt Moore including a huge hit by Bud Dupree that was rightly flagged although I didn’t think it was a dirty play so much as highlights the problems that defensive players can face when make tackles at game speed. However, how they were able to get Moore through a concussion test and back out into the game and only missing one play I have no idea. It is hardly surprising that the NFL will be looking into this and re-evaluating the concussion protocol in the offseason.

Overall, whilst this game will be a big disappointment to both fans and the franchise itself, this is still the first time the Dolphins have made the playoffs since 2008 and so should be seen as definite progress. The front office does not inspire confidence in me, but Adam Gase’s first year in charge did see him bind the team into a functional unit that fought their way into the playoffs, and gives him credibility to push forward into next season.

The final game of wildcard weekend had the nearest to a competitive game with the first half remaining tight until the Green Bay Packers scored with a Hail Mary pass at the end of the first half to take a 14-6 lead having been trailing 6-0 for most of the first half. During the first half the New York Giants were playing much as they have all season, with very good defence and a grinding misfiring offence. This has not been a great year for Eli Manning, and the Giants have been particularly reliant on big plays by Odell Beckham and so the offensive struggles might not be that surprising except whilst the run game has struggled all year, a receiving group base around Beckham, Victor Cruz, and Sterling Shepard should have been strong enough against a depleted Packers secondary to produce more. Sadly they were not, and worse still was between corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie going down injured, and Aaron Rodgers figuring out the weaknesses in the Giaints’ re-arranged secondary the Packers were able to turn things round and pulled away in the second half to win easily.

The Giants turn around on defence was impressive as it was a rare case of a free agent splurge working, and they still have the foundation to push on next year, but they need to get the offence sorted. Strengthening the offensive line might help add a run game to the Giants’ offence, and they will want to find a way to get more efficient production from Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, who makes spectacular plays but who could help his team more if he was more consistent.

Wildcard Saturday

07 Saturday Jan 2017

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Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

There are some that are being sniffy about this game, but there aren’t that many games left so we shouldn’t be too picky and we will be seeing history when Connor Cook becomes the first quarterback to start their first game in the playoffs.

The Houston Texans may have lost JJ Watt early in the season, but their defence still managed to rank seventh by DVOA and this was the year where Jadeveon Clowney started to put things together. There are rumours that Bill O’Brien’s job may not be safe unless the Texans get a win in this game. Certainly as an offensive minded coach who is meant to get the best out of quarterbacks, the struggles they have had in finding a consistent starter at that position in recent years will be a concern. With Tom Savage in the concussion protocol we see the return of Brock Osweiler who struggled a lot this year, and who was cheered when he was pulled out of the game several weeks ago, although I thought he looked a little better against the Raiders when these teams met in Mexico.

It feels like the Raiders had their fairy tale return to the playoffs stolen from them when Derek Carr broke his leg in their penultimate game and to lose their backup quarterback to injury seems particularly cruel. They still have an excellent offensive line, and play with a sixth linemen more than any other team in the league, but with the problems they have had on defensive despite some very good players, they have really felt the loss at quarterback. However, they should not be without hope as there is a chasm between these two teams in DVOA ranking with the Raiders at eleven and the Texans ranked twenty ninth.

This might not be a pretty game, but there is a lot on the line and as a writer would be happy to see Osweiler prove the doubters wrong, Connor Cook announce himself to the league, Khalil Mack demonstate his pass rush ability once more or watch Jedeveon Clowney really announce himself to the league. I think I lean towards the Texans winning at home, but it would not surprise me to see the Raiders win on the road, likely to be proclaimed as one for Derek.

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

This is another intriguing if potentially ugly game.

The Seahawks won their division and went 7-1 at home, but whilst the offence has been up and down all year through injuries and problems with their offensive line, the defence has not looked the same since Earl Thomas was lost for the season in week thirteen with a broken leg. It was Thomas’ ability to patrol between the numbers behind the defence that allowed the secondary to play as aggressively as it does, and whilst playing them in Seattle will still be a problem they do look beatable.

The problem for the Lions is that they have had their own problems this year since Matthew Stafford dislocated the tip of his middle finger on his throwing hand. The ball has not been coming out the same, and the fourth quarter heroics that so defined their early season success has dried up in recent weeks. In fact, they come into this game on a three game losing streak and could have a very tough time in this game. The hope will be that Stafford has another week to heal, and the Seahawks are struggling, but they will need to stick to the run more and hope the defence can stand up to a patchy Seahawks offence.

This was the year that Stafford took a step for me and looked more capable of winning on the road, but it is hard to see the Lions getting their first playoff victory since 1957 in Seattle under the circumstance. I would love to be proved wrong, and I could see this being a close game, but I do have a feeling that the Seahawks recent run of playoff success will prove telling.

Sunday Thoughts

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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It has been a frustrating season as a Bengals fan, but there comes a point where you have to accept that the playoffs really are out of reach, and whilst that happened to me a couple of weeks ago, the optimist in me still tries to hang on to hope for a couple of weeks. I am dreading what Fletcher Cox could do against the Bengals this week, but mainly I’ll be curious about what is going on with the rest of the league.

The Cowboy ran out eventual winners in an intriguing Thursday night game, but even though the Vikings defence is back to where it was earlier in the season, they couldn’t stop the first team to record double digit wins from getting their eleventh. There are two teams that could join them this week, but whilst the Raiders and Patriots stand a good chance of getting their tenth wins, injuries to Derek Carr and Rob Gronkowski could be causing differing degrees of anxiety to fans. Derek Carr came back in the game to play with his nastily injured finger, it is amazing what adrenaline will do for you, but it is possible it might affect his play. More worrying for the Patriots though will be the loss of Gronkowski for the rest of the season after having back surgery this week. You would back the Patriots staff to be able to adjust to this loss, but it is a big loss as Gronkowski is a real difference maker and is a favourite target of Brady as well as being the best tight end in the league.

No team is unaffected by injury at this time of year, but it is a question of whether you have picked up a critical injury and how strong you are at that position in the first place. The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has not been good all season, but in recent weeks they had improved enough when combined with Russel Wilson getting healthy to make the Seahawks look frightening again. However, they picked up more injuries last week and the Seahawks could only register five points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are still very much in control of the AFC West, which is very much going through a down season this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes and I will be curious to see how well their offence goes this week against a Panthers team who have been more competitive in recent weeks, even if the results don’t necessarily reflect it.

It felt like a strange week of games to predict, there are a lot of teams whose performance is varying week to week, and when there are questions surrounding even the best of teams, it is beginning to feel that the Cowboys might be putting themselves on a level of their own as they keep grinding out wins.

I think the question of overtime could rear its head again this week with another game that did give us a winner last Sunday, but still went to the end of overtime. One of my picks is resting on whether this extra pick is enough to let the Jaguars cover, but given the previous results of teams coming off a full overtime period it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the Jaguars could pick up a win. I know that Americans are culturally obsessed with there not being draws, but if a full period of overtime is that much of a disadvantage to the participating teams the following week, I’m still not sure that in an era of concern over player well-being, that we are not better off just accepting that draws happen.

Let’s see what happens with the Chiefs and Broncos when they play today.