Tag Archives: Week 16 Picks

2019 Week Sixteen Picks

22 Sunday Dec 2019

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Here we are in the penultimate week of the picks competition, although the trivia will roll right into the postseason.

‘The Kansas City Chiefs were originally known by what name?’

I could be wrong on this one again as I’m not an expert on the early history of football but I do not remember any move or other name of the Kansas City franchise coming up so I am going suggest that Dan’s Dad is living up to his devious moniker and that the original is in fact the Chiefs.

‘I’m really stuck with this. I don’t know anything really about KC’s history (note to self, research just in case for next year!) so I’m going to have to guess something which rolls off the tongue. I’ll guess they were previously the Kansas City Cowboys but I’m 99% sure that’s wrong.’

Jaguars @ Falcons (-7.5)

Of the five wins that the Atlanta Falcons have this season, four of them have come in the last six weeks and they include sweeping the Panthers and beating the Saints and 49ers. The welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who won last week and who have just fired Tom Coughlin after the NFLPA announced that a quarter of all grievances their players had brought against NFL teams were against the Jaguars. I wonder if there will be some relief for the team now that Coughlin won’t be fining them anymore and this line is just too high for me given how up and down the Falcons had been.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Bengals @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Dan and I have been very aware of this matchup all season, even more so when it became clear that both teams looked to be in with a chance of the first pick. With their one win the Bengals have the inside straight to the number one pick yet somehow this number favours the Bengals even though I don’t think they are the better team and I think Brian Flores has looked the better coach. I’m really not sure about this line so the only thing I can do is back my team and hope for bragging rights.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Ravens @ Browns (+10.5)

This is a big line, but the Cleveland Browns are a mess and the Baltimore Ravens have the most wins in the NFL for a reason. The line worries me a little but having scored over forty points five times this season I think that with the extra rest coming off Thursday night that the Ravens cover this.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

Saints @ Titans (+2.5)

The New Orleans Saints looked really good last week whilst the Tennessee Titans lost against the Texans in the big AFC South matchup. However, the Saints have picked up a few injuries in the last couple of week and for all that he is a Fall of Fame quarterback, Drew Brees is not as good outside of a dome and so despite all that has gone on before – if you’re giving me points at home for a team that has played like the Titans in recent weeks I’m going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Panthers @ Colts (-6.5)

Despite their struggles in recent weeks, I don’t have a problem with the Indianapolis Colts being a favourite in this game and with a rookie quarterback starting for the Carolina Panthers I might even understand this line but it is too rich for my blood when I don’t trust either team at this point in the season.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Giants @ Washington (-2.5)

This is another game that has two teams that I don’t trust. The New York Giants got their third win of the season last week giving Eli Manning an emotional send off in what looks like the last home game of his career. However, it looks like Daniel Jones could come back from his ankle injury this week as the Giants travel to Washington to take on another bad team. There were people who reported that Dwayne Haskins looked better last week, even if Washington did lose the game but I have no strong feeling on this game. As is the case with these things though, I’m seeing this as a much more advantageous line for the Giants with a 3.5 swing from what I’m seeing online against this number so based on that I’m taking the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Steelers @ Jets (+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers may have lost last week but they are the better team and so whilst the New York Jets will want to put in a better performance than the one that saw them lose by twenty-one points to the Ravens last week, I like the Steelers to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Lions @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Detroit Lions have now lost seven games straight and so I can see why the Broncos could be favoured, but they have only five wins themselves and have a cluster of injuries on the offensive line. I really don’t have a strong feel for this game, and my instinct is to not trust the Broncos to cover this line but this is a half point better line that I’m seeing online so the number suggests that the Broncos is the way to go but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. Stay away folks, stay away!

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5)

I don’t like either team particularly at the moment and this is a curious game as the Raiders have lost rookie running back Josh Jacobs for the rest of the season as well as the previous four games, but will likely have more fans in the crowd than the LA Chargers. However, the Chargers have one less win and have been almost the model of inconsistency. I like the Chargers to win but I just don’t trust them to win by six points and so even though this line is good value for the Chargers, I still can’t quite bring myself to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Cowboys @ Eagles (+2.5)

This is a big game in terms of the NFC East, but the Philadelphia Eagles have been overwhelmed by injuries whilst the Dallas Cowboys have been massively inconsistent. The Cowboys would be an easy pick were it not for the injury to Dak Prescott who hasn’t thrown all week as he has picked up a shoulder problem. With the injury I would stay well away from this game if I could, but as I have to pick I’m going go with the better team by DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Arizona Cardinals got their first win in seven games las week, but I am not sure they are going to follow that up with a win in Seattle. However, the Seahawks have not been as dominant at home this season and whilst I expect them to win, this line feels big to me and so whilst I could feel foolish tomorrow, I like the Cardinals to keep this divisional game within ten.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Chiefs @ Bears (+5.5)

Don’t look now, but the Kansas City Chiefs’ defence is now ranked eleventh in the league by DVOA and if you combine that with their offensive fire power then they are a formidable team. The Chicago Bears really need this win, but they are 27.1% worse than the Chiefs and I think they will struggle in this one, even if they are at home as the Chiefs have plenty of experience of playing in the cold.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Packers @ Vikings (-4.5)

This game will go a long way to deciding the NFC North, particularly if the Packers win but it’s a strange one to pick as the Minnesota Vikings are a good home team and the Green Bay Packers have won but look slightly off on offence. In fact, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like Aaron Rodgers at the moment, and I think the Vikings are the favourites but this line concerns me. I may come to regret this, but I’m not sure I can bring myself to back the Vikings to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Saturday: 2019 Week 16

21 Saturday Dec 2019

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I don’t know if a different schedule will change things, but to overturn the deficit, I needed to make up some ground last week and instead I have fallen further back after both Dan and his Dad had solid ten point weeks and I very much didn’t. I’m still above .500 but it certainly doesn’t look the blog will be returning to black and orange in the new year.

Dan’s Dad: Week 15:   10-6 Overall:   129-95
Dan: Week 15:   10-6 Overall:   121-103
Gee: Week 15:   7-9 Overall:   116-108

Texans @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Houston Texans are in pole position to with the AFC South having beaten the Texans last week, but they can’t afford to slip up on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have kind of quietly won their last games. You still would want Jameis Winston to tame the turnovers but he has already thrown for over four and half thousand yards and could well top five thousand by the end of the season. This is the start of a strong Saturday schedule, and I am really tempted by the home points but the Buccaneers have now lost both Evans and now Godwin at receiver and with Will Fuller back for the Texans I’m going to back them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:     Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

Bills @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Buffalo Bills are one game behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East and having secured a playoff place they will be looking to win the division for the first time since 1995. It’s still a big as ask but this is also a big line and whilst it seems unlikely the Bills can win the division and it is tough to win at Gillette Stadium but I do see the Bills being competitive after the Patriots struggles continued last week and so I’m going to back the Bills to keep the game within a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:     Bills
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Rams @ 49ers (-6.5)

The LA Rams were badly beaten by the Cowboys last week and so their chances of making the playoffs seems pretty low. They face a motivated San Francisco 49ers team who are being pushed by the Seahawks and if the Rams offence struggled against the Cowboys pass rush, I can really see them struggling against the 49ers’ second rank defence by DVOA and in particular their fearsome defensive line. Their earlier game ended in a 7-20 loss for the Rams but the injury to the 49ers have lost their starting centre so I am trying to weigh this up in a must win game for both teams. Given this is a crucial divisional game for both teams I am tempted by the points but changing my mind almost always leads to wrong picks so 49ers it is.

Gee’s Pick:     49ers
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Week 9 Trivia

‘There are just 2 weeks to go and the playoff picture took another step to becoming clear this week.

There are two storms gathering this weekend. The first is the Bengals visit to Miami. For many it may hardly register but believe me the WhatsApp feed at TWF Towers will be in meltdown. The season has not been kind to either team and this is an opportunity to secure bragging rights.

The Picks started with a mixed bag in which Gee took the chance to make an early start to the week as Dan and I took the now seemingly odd decision to pick The Jets over Baltimore. I think the big spread made us a little picker-happy.

However, after Sunday Dan went into Monday a point ahead on the week and with every chance of closing the gap to 6 with 2 weeks to go. Both he and Gee went Colts but the old fella ignored the spread in favour of home field to take the point from what was nearly a shut out to maintain my healthier 8 point advantage. Sometimes it’s knowing which factor to follow and often it’s gut feel.

That big event happens on Monday with another Packers Vikings scrap. There have been many over the years, but this has a real significance. The Packers are a game ahead, so a win clinches the division, end of story. However, a Vikings win levels up and it’s off to week 17. But therein lies another challenge. The Vikes host the Bears while the Packers take on the Lions, arguably an easier job. And head over heart I fear we bottle it against the Bears. Oh well, Blessed are the Cheesemakers.

Which brings us to the Trivia where last week I asked:
In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?

Clearly the answer lay between 0 and 5 and this time it was 4. The Jaguars made it to the playoffs four out of their first five seasons: 1996-97-98-99. They made it to the Conference Championships twice (1996 and 1999) but lost both times, once to the Patriots 20-6 in 1996, and to the Titans 33-14 in 1999.

I knew this would be a Guess-fest and my previous history of teasing the team would reinforce that. Anyway, with both admitting to being unsure it was Dan who scooped the 2 points and extending his advantage to 3.

For Week 16 I’ve relocated to Kansas City and the question to tax the brain cells while I indulge in some eye-wateringly expensive fun in Dubai is this:

The Kansas City Chiefs were originally known by what name?

Easy right? The names will be familiar but the content, maybe not. We shall see but remember that the Trivia will continue through the Post Season so there is still much at stake and additional questions may appear to spice things up some more.

Have a Cool Yule Y’all!’

2018 Week Sixteen Picks

23 Sunday Dec 2018

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So here we go with the week sixteen weeks, but before that there’s the minor matter of our trivia competition.

‘In Week 3 the Browns beat the Jets 20 – 17, but how many days, and against whom, prior to Sept 20 is it since they had last won? As it’s Christmas I’ll allow you 25 days either way but give 3 points for an exact hit.’

So as odd as this might sound, I’m going to start with the days as I remember that apart from last season’s 0-16, the year before the Browns only went 1-16 (making it all the more remarkable that Hue Jackson kept his job) and there was real talk of them going 0-16 that season so I’m going to work on the theory that they got that solitary win in week sixteen. Counting along the calendar that gives me Sunday the 25th of December 2016, but whilst I think there were some games on Christmas day I don’t the NFL played the full slate and I hardly think the Browns would be a prime time game so let’s say the Browns won on the 24th of December 2016, so the Browns went six hundred and thirty-five days without a win. Now here’s the frustrating problem, I have no idea who they beat. Like none… So I’ve gone to a random NFL generator online and spun their wheel. The first team to come up were the Panthers, but I don’t like that as it would be more likely to be a fellow AFC team than an NFC team so I spun again and got the Bengals, but I think I would remember that, so once more I spin and I get the then San Diego now LA Chargers. I have no idea if that is right, but I’m sticking with the Browns beating the Chargers six hundred and thirty-five days before they beat the Jets this season.

‘Ok, I know this. I happen to know that it was a nice little Christmas present for the Browns with their precious win being on Christmas Eve 2016. Their game in week 3 was on the Thursday night, so if I’ve done my maths correctly (and I’ll be annoyed if I’ve not!), I make it 635 days between wins. And the win was against the then San Diego Chargers.’

Falcons @ Panthers (-3.5)

The Atlanta Falcons got their first win in six weeks last week and this week they visit a Carolina Panthers team who having fallen out of the playoffs last week, are sitting Cam Newton so he can start treatment on his injured throwing shoulder. On almost any previous week I would have backed the Panthers in this game, but I’m going for the Falcons in week sixteen given the comparative form and who is starting at quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bills @ Patriots (-12.5)

The New England Patriots are very much in control of their own destiny and I’m not going to suggest they will lose to the Bills at home, but things have not been right with them for a number of weeks now and with Josh Gordon stepping away from football for the good of his mental health it doesn’t exactly look to be getting better for the Patriots offence. The Bills defence is still ranked third in the league by DVOA and that alone is enough for me to take the step of backing the Bills to keep this game within thirteen points. I just hope the Patriots usual ability to cover big lines doesn’t suddenly re-appear this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Bengals @ Browns (-6.5)

Given their comparative form I have no issue with the Cleveland Browns being favoured in this game, but six and half points feels like a little much given the way the Bengals have played over the last two weeks. The fact that the Bengals have now lost leading receiver Tyler Boyd as well as all the other receiving options does give me pause, but I don’t feel like the Browns are going to win the battle of Ohio by a touchdown. I hope I am right at any rate, even if the Browns will be supremely motivated to beat Hue Jackson.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Ravens last week and now must travel to Dallas to face a Cowboys teams who will be looking to bounce back from their shutout loss the week before. I’m not sure how competitive this game will be, but the line worries me as they were not at all competitive against the Colts. The Cowboys will be feeling the pressure with the Eagles beating the Rams and Washington managing to stay one game behind but this line is just that little bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Vikings @ Lions (+5.5)

The Detroit Lions’ up and down season continue to falter along and whilst most of their problems would seem to be on offence from injury, it is their defence that ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA and I’m sure some questions are going to asked of their first-year head coach Matt Patricia in the offseason. It doesn’t get any easier for them this week either as they welcome a Minnesota Vikings teams who rediscovered their offence last week on the back of a renewed commitment to running the ball and scored forty points for the first time this season. In a league that never has a big sample size it is dangerous to read too much into one game, but it at least makes sense that reducing the amount Kirk Cousins is asked to do leads to a more efficient game and I like the Vikings to carry their new form into this matchup.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Packers @ Jets (-0.5)

The New York Jets made last week’s game competitive against the Houston Texans and did take a lead in the fourth quarter, albeit a short lived one. However, there are thirteen places between them and the visiting Green Bay Packers in the overall DVOA rankings and whilst this has only manifested itself in one more win this season, Aaron Rodgers is planning to play out the season with his team and even on a down year I’m going to back him in this matchup.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Giants @ Colts (-9.5)

I like the direction the Indianapolis Colts are heading in and they remain in the playoff hunt. Coming off a strong showing against the Cowboys you can see why they are favourites against a New York Giants team who have struggled all season despite their talent at the offensive skill positions. Having got shut out and lost by seventeen last week, it is not like setting this line against the Giants is an insult but the Colts themselves got shut out two weeks ago by the Jaguars and so I’m not so confident that I will predict they win by ten. I could be wrong, but this line is just that little bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jaguars @ Dolphins (-4.5)

The Miami Dolphins got beat badly last week but they have also been terrible on the road losing every game bar their first against the Jets. That said, they are 6-1 at home and this week welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars who after a 3-1 start to the season have only won one game since then. The change at quarterback has not exactly invigorated the Jaguars offence and on the road I don’t expect them to set the world alight but it is still hard to have this much faith in the Dolphins. It’s not that they don’t deserve to be favourites, but this feels like too many points to be giving up for a team I don’t trust. I’m sure Dan would be very happy to see me proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Texans @ Eagles (-0.5)

This is a sneaky good game as the Houston Texans take their 10-4 record to Philadelphia to see if they can beat an Eagles team who dragged themselves back into the contest for the NFC East with their win over the Rams last week. The Eagles chances still rests on the Cowboys slipping up but they have something to play for and looked much better against the Rams last week. What I’m not sure about is how these teams will play against each other and this line is not exactly helping but their 5-2 record on the road looks to favour the Texans yet I’m not sure they are two and half points better than the Eagles, which is what this line suggests. I’m going to nervously back the home team and hope I’m not making a big mistake.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Bears @ 49ers (+3.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have won two straight and found a little something toward the end of what has been a difficult season. This week they face a Chicago Bears team who clinched their division with a win over the Packers last week and whilst there is some potential for a let down for the Bears, they are now only a game back from the Rams and so a playoff bye week is up for grabs. Perhaps more importantly, the Bears number one defence in the league by DVOA will make it a very long day for Nick Mullens. This line is really tempting as home underdogs usually are but in the end, I’m going with the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Rams @ Cardinals (+14.5)

This is a surprisingly big game for the LA Rams who have now lost two straight and have not looked themselves for weeks now. They will be looking to get right against the bottom ranked team in the league by DVOA and whilst early in the season I might have backed them to cover this line, right now I think it is way too high. The Arizona Cardinals have had a miserable season but they actually rank fifteenth in the league on defence by DVOA and fifteen point wins are not that common, especially for a team who haven’t looked right and need to rest an injured Todd Gurley.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Steelers @ Saints (-6.5)

This should be a cracking game as the league leading New Orleans Saints welcome a Pittsburgh Steelers team who got back on track last week with a win over the New England Patriots. The Saints are a really good home team but their offence has gone down a notch or two in recent weeks yet they’ve kept winning thanks to their defence gradually improving across the year. The Steelers have been more up and down and dropped a bad game on the road against the Raiders in week fourteen. I know that Ben Roethlisberger is not the same quarterback on the road as he is at home, but I this line is too much for me given the recent points output of the Saints as I think this should be a close and fun contest.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Chiefs @ Seahawks (+2.5)

We follow one cracking game with another as the Kansas City Chiefs visit Seattle to take on a Seahawks team who will be smarting having lost on the road to the 49ers last week. The Seahawks still have an edge in the NFC wildcard hunt but they can’t afford to keep dropping games even if they do play the Cardinals in week seventeen. The Chiefs come into this game with the better record and DVOA ranking, but with receivers banged up and having cut Kareem Hunt a couple of weeks ago when the video of him kicking a woman was released by TMZ, their offence has not looked the same. As strange as it might have sounded at the start of the season, Patrick Mahomes is what is making the Cheifs’ offence go right now but Seattle is a tough place to play and that is enough for me to grab the points with the home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Broncos @ Raiders (+2.5)

Out final game of the week sees one team who only fell out the playoff hunt a couple of weeks ago visiting a team who all but announced they were rebuilding at the start of the year when they traded away Khalil Mack. That move catapulted the Bears into a division win whilst I still can’t understand it for the Raiders, who may have beat the Steelers in week fourteen but crashed back to earth last week when they lost 16-30 to the Bengals. Two of the Raiders’ three wins have come at home and getting points might be tempting, but their defence ranks thirty-first against the pass and twenty-seventh against the run by DVOA and with undrafted rookie running back Phillip Lindsay heading to the Pro Bowl I think a Broncos team with twice the number of wins will have enough to see the Raiders out. This looks like it could be the Raiders last game in Oakland, which could throw a spanner in the works but I’m going to trust my numbers on this one as I can’t stay away.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Riders

2018 Saturday Picks 2: The Revenge

22 Saturday Dec 2018

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It was a terrible week to go ice cold with my picks, which as I mentioned in this week’s blog post gives Dan’s Dad a five point lead with two week’s left. I just hope I can turn things round and make the score respectable if not prevent the blog going purple and gold, which takes us to our second round of Saturday picks.

Gee:    Week 15   5-11            Overall   113-111
Dan:    Week 15   9-7              Overall   109-115

Washington @ Titans (-10.5)

This is a huge line considering that the Tennessee Titans only have one more win than Washington and yes the team from the nation’s capital are much more injured and down to their fourth quarterback of the season, but having beaten the Jaguars last week it feels like they will keep this game more competitive than eleven points. I’m slightly nervous as the Titans have been a team I have struggled to pick all season and they shut out the Giants last week, but my spreadsheet agrees with my gut feeling and so I’m going to back Washington.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Ravens @ Chargers (-4.5)

I’m really looking forward to this game and I hope to able to watch it at some point on Sunday. The LA Chargers are right up there with any team in the league, but they don’t exactly have a huge home field advantage and this week they welcome a Baltimore Ravens team who have been competitive for a number of weeks now and who are still in the hunt for the playoffs. It might be that the Chargers run out winners, but I’m not hugely confident in that and I like the Ravens to keep it closer than five thanks to their tough defence and ability to run the ball.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

I’ll leave you with a reminder of this week’s trivia question.

‘In Week 3 the Browns beat the Jets 20 – 17, but how many days, and against whom, prior to Sept 20 is it since they had last won? As it’s Christmas I’ll allow you 25 days either way but give 3 points for an exact hit.’

Week Sixteen Picks

24 Sunday Dec 2017

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Falcons @ Saints (-5.5)

This game sees the second ranked by overall DVOA New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons who rank sixteenth. This should be a great game as both teams are fighting for a playoff spot and the Falcons won the reverse fixture two weeks ago. It also pits the Saints’ number one rush offence by DVOA against the Falcons’ thirtieth rush defence. I do fancy the Saints to win, but it is a question if they can cover this line and whilst I think they definitely can the line does worry me. However, with Alvin Kamara fit and healthy and with a point to prove I’m going to nervously back the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bills @ Patriots (-12.5)

The New England Patriots are coming off another comeback win, but having beaten the Steelers they now host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are still in the playoff hunt and have been playing most teams tough. I would expect the Patriots to win, but given that they are coming off a physical road game I do not expect them to find this division game easy.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Browns @ Bears (-6.5)

The Cleveland Browns have been failing to even cover games yet alone win them, and it is hard to see them turning this around on the road in Chicago even if the Bears are hardly setting the league alight. The Browns’ defence ranks a respectable sixteenth in the league but their thirty-second rank offence does not inspire confidence. Nor does the fact that the Browns are 1-5 against the spread on the road and so by default I’m going back the Bears to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Lions @ Bengals (+4.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are struggling with injury and stuck in limbo with a head coach that is likely leaving so it hard to see them having much luck against the Detroit Lions who still have an outside chance of making the playoffs. The injuries at tackle will not help the struggling Bengal’s offence and whilst having linebacker Vontaze Burfict back may help the defence, I’m not prepared to suggest that this will help the Bengals keep this game close.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Broncos @ Washington (-3.5)

Washington are limping towards the end of the season whilst the Denver Broncos have won two straight. The Broncos will want to take another look at Paxton Lynch, but with the oft injured young quarterback still struggling with an ankle sprain it looks like Brock Osweiler will get the start in Washington. I don’t have much faith in the home team despite their win against the Cardinals last week but nor do I have much faith in the Broncos and yet with the Broncos coming into this game with a little extra rest and getting an extra half point on the road I’m going to back them to stay within four points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Rams @ Titans (+6.5)

With the LA Rams on the road as they travel to face the Tennessee Titans the points should tempt me except the Titans have not been playing well for a while now and the Rams are peaking at the right time. I am sure I should be taking the points for a home underdog but with the scores the Rams have been running up this season I can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Miami Dolphins have been so up and down that it is hard to predict what they are going to do, but on the road facing a Kansas City Chiefs team who have rediscovered some of their early season form and who have one of the best home field advantages in the league it is hard to say the Dolphins will have a good performance. However, it is a lot to ask for any team to win by eleven points. I don’t think the Dolphins will win this game, but this number is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Chargers @ Jets (+6.5)

The LA Chargers rand into a buzz saw last week and are on the road for a second week. They travel to face a New York Jets team who have lost two games by double digits since quarterback Josh McCown was lost for the season to a hand injury in Denver. The points do worry me, but the Chargers are still only a game back from the wildcard spots and are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-9.5)

The Carolina Panthers have won two straight and seem to have found themselves on offence. They welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who got a strong performance from Jameis Winston last week but the third year quarterback has struggled a lot this season as has the team. This is a lot of points but not enough to persuade me to pick against the favourite.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Jaguars @ 49ers (+4.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have had an incredible run since starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback but those three wins have come against the Bears, Texans, and Titans whereas this week they face the Jacksonville Jaguars and their league leading by DVOA pass defence. This should be a fascinating game but it feels like this is the game that Garappolo finally loses. The points are tempting, but in the end I’m going to trust the superior talent across the board for the Jaguars and who would have predicted that before the start of the season?

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Seahawks @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This feels like a trap game as the Seattle Seahawks are a team who constantly challenge what you think they can do and the Dallas Cowboys have been up and down this season. However, the Seahawks were battered at home last week and are facing a Cowboys team who can rush the passer and who are also get running back Ezekiel Elliott back from suspension. I could regret this but with the Cowboys coming into this game on a three game winning streak I’m going to back them to win at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Giants @ Cardinals (-4.5)

This is a strange game to pick with both teams’ seasons going badly and neither team having much to play for. The Arizona Cardinals have not scored a touchdown in two games whilst the New York Giants are marking time until the end of the season when the overhaul of their roster can begin. I think the Cardinals are the more likely team to win but the Giants are a surprising 4-3 against the spread on the road and this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Steelers @ Texans (+9.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers should have won last week and now travel to face a poor Houston Texans team who just want the season to be over. The Texans have lost their last four games and the last three by double digits so whilst the Steelers’ loss of receiver Antonio Brown does worry me, as does their  propensity of playing down to their opponent, the Steelers need to keep winning to get a bye week and I think they should get right in this game. Particularly with the Christmas day record of 17-2 to road teams, which Dan made me aware of in this week’s podcast.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Raiders @ Eagles (-8.5)

The Oakland Raiders are the other team on the road this Christmas, but if last year was the first to feature home wins in the Christmas day games I expect another home victory this year. The Raiders have been struggling all season and this week they travel across the country to face an Eagles team in Philadelphia who demonstrated that they can move the ball with their backup quarterback Nick Foles. It was the Eagles’ defence that struggled last week despite their top ten ranking by DVOA and they will want to look better this week and going against a Raiders offence that ranks a surprising eleventh by DVOA despite their problem, I think they will.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Saturday Picks

23 Saturday Dec 2017

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As we head into the last two weeks of the regular season the playoff situation is becoming clearer, but as much as the focus has been on the turnaround of the new teams that are going to make it like the Philadelphia Eagles, the LA Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars there are a lot of familiar and experienced quarterbacks lurking or in pole position. No one would be surprised if Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady battle it out in the AFC championship game, but in the NFC whilst there are three inexperienced quarterbacks looking like they will win their divisions, the NFC South looks like it could send Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan into the playoffs. That’s three quarterbacks who don’t just have playoff experience but have been to a Super Bowl and in Brees’ case, won one.

With Carson Wentz’s injury the Eagles are less dominant in the NFC and it certainly feels like any one of the six teams that would go through if the season ends today could get on a run. The AFC is a somewhat murkier, especially given the partially torn calf muscle of Steelers’ receiver Antonio Brown. It is a fool’s game to be predicting what will happen, but it does feel like the NFC teams are stronger this season, but as we witnessed in their game last week, you should count the Patriots out at your peril. Something Dan and I failed to take into account when picking against them, although we both had winning records last week.

Gee:      Week 15   11-5                   Overall   128-97
Dan:      Week 15   9-7                     Overall   117-108

Colts @ Ravens (-13.5)

The Indianapolis Colts were competitive for a half last week, but in the end they were thoroughly beaten by the Broncos and this week they travel to face the Ravens in Baltimore who have been playing well of late. The Ravens have also pitched three defensive shutouts this season and I suspect the Colts will struggle to move the ball on them. This is a big line, but the Ravens have won six games by fourteen points or more this season and so I’m going to nervously back them to do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Vikings @ Packers (+6.5)

The Minnesota Vikings just keep rolling and with the Green Bay Packers placing Aaron Rodgers back on IR after they were eliminated from the playoffs it is hard to see anything other than a Vikings win in this game. It is a divisional game so it could be more competitive than generally assumed, but Rodgers’ absence has demonstrated how important he is to this team, and I think the Vikings should cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Week Sixteen Picks

24 Saturday Dec 2016

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It must be a strange week to have your family running round doing Christmas things whilst you prepare for a game of football, particularly if you’re playing on Christmas day, but time to get our picks sorted for the week as I do my own preparations. It appears that there is always one more thing to do…

Gee:      Week 15   9-7                     Overall   106-118
Dan:      Week 15   7-9                     Overall   102-122

Falcons @ Panthers (+2.5)

The Panthers are coming off a win against Washington having largely played better in recent weeks, although things are still not quite right on offence. However, the Falcons are on a real roll at the moment and so despite giving away points on the road, I am going to back them against the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Dolphins @ Bills (-3.5)

The Dolphins are finding a way to win this season, whilst the Bills have been erratic but are also coming off a win from last week. The Bills got theirs off the back of another strong running performance from LeSean McCoy where he racked up one hundred and fifty-three yards, hitting one hundred and fifty yards for the second time this season. This is not a great sign for the Dolphins who rank twenty-second in rush defence by DVOA, but I have more trust in the Dolphins and think they will at least keep this game closer than four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ Bears (+2.5)

After their poor loss against the Panthers, Washington have to win this game to keep their outside shot at making the playoffs alive, but the Bears are a tougher prospect than their record might suggest. There are some signs on defence that there are things to build on, and Matt Barkley has earned himself another contract somewhere in the NFL, if only as a backup quarterback. However, I think that Washington are the better team and so once again I find myself giving up points on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Chargers @ Browns (+6.5)

The San Diego Chargers rank one place lower than the Bills by DVOA, but are on a three game losing streak as they travel to Cleveland. I have been saying for a couple of weeks that the Browns best chance of a win would be this game, although no team is going to want to be the one who loses to this Browns team. However, getting this number of points is tempting, and with the Chargers coming across the country to play in the cold I see a low scoring game, that makes me think the Browns will cover even if they don’t win.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)

The Vikings had Adrian Peterson return last week, but things took a dramatic turn for the worse as they lost heavily to the Colts with Andrew Luck throwing for two hundred and fifty yards with touchdowns. Things don’t get any easier this week as they are on the road to face a resurgent Green Pay in Lambeau Field. I think that the Vikings will likely lose this game, but the Packers only just beat the Bears by three and this line has me worried, I want to pick the Vikings but their capitulation has me worried and so whilst I don’t expect a repeat performance, I can’t bring myself to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars may have an interim head coach, but I’m not sure how much of a boost they will get given their standard of play all season, after all it is not like you can fix Blake Bortles’ throwing mechanics in a week, especially as he’s carrying a shoulder injury. So fans of the Titans might dread this pick as I always seem to be wrong when it comes to the Titans this year, but I see them winning this one fairly easily and covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Jets @ Patriots (-16.5)

This is a tough one for me to predict as the Jets have lost two of their last four games badly, including to the Dolphins last week who were starting their backup quarterback. Yet this is a huge line and as good as the Patriots are, I can’t quite bring myself to pick them in this case. I hope that I’m not making a mistake, but I can’t bring myself to back a team to win by seventeen points, there’s just too much to go wrong!

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Colts @ Raiders (-3.5)

This is a confusing game to me as the Colts are coming off a huge win against the Vikings, whilst the Raiders have had more than their share of close/comeback wins this season. The Colts could follow up with another good performance, but I am not convinced about the way their team is constructed and so I am going to put my faith in the team with the better record and hope the extra half point at home doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

So the Rams get a chance to play having had a decent amount of time under their interim head coach, but I’m really not sure how much can be done about their offence, which had misfired all season. The problem is that the 49ers have hardly looked much better having lost their last twelve. The Rams have at least won some games, and have recognisable players on defence that are good, but a three and a half point line looks like a lot when you consider their record. In the end I do have more faith in the players the Rams have and so very reluctantly I’m backing the Rams to cover this line at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Buccaneers @ Saints (-2.5)

So partly this game is about which Saints team is going to turn up, the one who has scored more than thirty points seven times this season and who beat the Cardinals last week, or the team who lost to the Buccaneers two weeks ago and who could only manage eleven points. I’m not sure that they will struggle that badly again this week, but having kept the game close against the Cowboys, I think the Buccaneers will get back to winning ways this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-8.5)

This is a hard game for me to pick as the Cardinals have been hard to predict other than David Johnson is going to put up monster numbers, whilst the Seahawks look to be heading into the playoffs as a dangerous but wounded team. No one would fancy playing the Seahawks at home, but they are possibly not the same team right now thanks to injury and so it is hard for me to predict them to win by nine.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Bengals @ Texans (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to expect from the Bengals in the offseason, but the lack of discipline last week was both familiar and deeply frustrating. They have kept games close this season, but have failed to capitalise and this week they travel to Houston to face a Texans team who benched Osweiler on the second quarter last week and looked better for it. With Savage at the helm of the offence, and Jadeveon Clowney beginning to terrify quarterbacks this season I think the Texans might well get the win. I will be delighted to be wrong on this one, and certainly the Bengals have kept a lot of games close, but having lost to the Steelers last week and with the Texans at home I think I back the Texans to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Ravens @ Steelers (-5.5)

This is the big game of the week for me as the result will go a long way to settling who will win the AFC North and this is a real rivalry. The Steelers passing game hasn’t looked quite right in recent weeks, but Le’Veon Bell has been carrying the load for the Steelers’ offence whilst the defence does enough to win. The Ravens are struggling on offence, but have a defence that ranks second in the league by DVOA and first against the run. I see this has being a tough close game and so when I’m getting this many points I feel I have to pick the Ravens.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Broncos @ Chiefs (-4.5)

I am really not sure about this game as there appears to be an understandable divide in the Broncos dressing room between a defence that ranks first in the league by DVOA despite a rushing defence that is only twenty-fourth, and an offence that has misfired badly all season. The Chiefs wobbled against the Titans last week, but could have easily won that game and will be looking for revenge. They have the speed to make plays on offence, but the line worries me in this game. It took overtime and a field goal to separate them last time, and I just can’t quite bring myself to back the Chiefs to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Lions @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Cowboys got back to winning ways last week against the Buccaneers after their blip against the Giants, but this week they welcome a Lions team who have specialised in late game heroics. I’m not sure that the Lions can win this game, but I suspect that Matthew Stafford will have an easier time indoors in Dallas with his injured finger than he had in New York the previous week, and I’m just not sure if the Cowboys are going to win by eight or more when they have only managed that twice in the last eight weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Thursday Night Pick

22 Thursday Dec 2016

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So it is time for the annual scramble round trying to get picks/blogs out round Christmas, starting with tonight’s game.

Giants @ Eagles (+2.5)

The Eagles ran the Ravens close last week, but whilst the Giants are struggling on offence, they are not as erratic as the Ravens and I think they will win out in this divisional game against an Eagles team that has a lot of rebuilding to do in the offseason, but looks like they have got their quarterback of the future.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Week 16 Picks

27 Sunday Dec 2015

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With writing around Christmas I thought I’d take a slightly longer look at each team as I go through the rest of the week sixteen picks and wait for Dan to send me his.

Panthers @ Falcons (+7.5)

The Falcons finally halted the skid last week as they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. This year has definitely been an improvement, and I think it is too early to be thinking about replacing Matt Ryan, but they will need to solidify their line and give Ryan more passing options as well as improving their defence in the offseason if they want to continue the improvement next year.

Meanwhile the Panthers are coming off a win against the Giants in a game which the locker room were saying felt like a loss. The Panthers are unbeaten so far this season, and we are getting into that time of year where some teams will be thinking of resting players and I just don’t know what Ron Rivera will be planning to do with his team.

I am not expecting a repeat of the shutout win that the Panthers had in Carolina two weeks ago, but the Panthers will want to keep the stretch going and backup quarterback Derek Anderson won games last year if they do rest Cam Newton. Part of me wants to pick the Falcons as it is a divisional game and the Falcons would love to put a spanner in the works and end the unbeaten run, but I think the Panthers will go into the last game undefeated and I think they’ll cover the points too.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers

Cowboys @ Bills (-5.5)

The Bills have not lived up to their pre-season billing, with Rex Ryan making the defence demonstrably worse this season with basically the same pieces as last year. The offence has improved with Tyrod Taylor playing well in his first year as a starting quarterback and Sammy Watkins beginning to show his first round pedigree, but the Bills have been too ill disciplined to sustain success.

The Cowboys season was derailed by injuries to key offensive personnel, but if they were going to compete in a poor NFC East they needed to win more games whilst Tony Romo was initially out with a broken collar bone. They were unable to do this, and Romo came back early to pick up a win before reinjuring his collar bone.

This is a curious game for me to pick, but although I think the Bills should win, with them missing LeSean McCoy and the season they have had so far I cannot bring myself to back the Bills to win by six points. A feat they have only managed four times this season, and two of those were against a struggling Dolphins team.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys

Bears @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Buccaneers have faltered in the last couple of weeks, but they have still made strides this year and have at least solved the question of who will be their quarterback for the next few years. Not only has Jameis Winston put up some impressive figures, but he has not thrown as many interceptions as people feared given his college career. The defence will need to play more consistently next year for them to improve, and Winston could do with his offensive line getting better again next season, but there is at least something to build on.

It was thought that the Chicago Bears were going to be horrible this year, and the season certainly started badly, but slowly John Fox and his staff have made them competitive. I wouldn’t like to predict what moves they will make in the offseason, and if they are going to stick with Jay Cutler, but certainly the defence has begun to get comfortable in their new system.

The Bears are travelling to Tampa Bay coming off a third straight loss, but four of their five wins have come on the road this season. I am really not sure which way to go on this game as I don’t have much idea of how the game will go, but I can’t quite bring myself to back the Bears and have lost too many times picking road underdogs this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Browns @ Chiefs (-12.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs started this season horribly, going 1-5 before turning their season round and winning eight straight to get themselves back into the playoff hunt, and they still have a shot at winning the AFC West if the Broncos continue to drop games. Their defence is currently ranked fourth by DVOA, whilst their offence has found a way despite losing Jamaal Charles earlier in the season. The addition of free agent Jeremy Maclin has helped a passing game that famously struggled to get the ball to receivers last season.

The Browns are a mess, and it is hard to say much more than that. They have a head coach that has a defensive background, and yet have gone backwards on that side of the ball this year, whilst the offence has faltered and they don’t have a starting quarterback they all believe in or even trust. There are signs that Johnny Manziel has made some improvements on the field, but there have been further issues off it, and it is hard to see any team committing to him at this point. I say this as it is very possible Manziel gets traded in the offseason as there could be a front office shake up once the season is done. This a team that has done a bad job of finding talent in recent years and that has missed on too many first round picks, so it would not be a surprise if they start the offseason looking for a new GM.

The points are high for this game, but the Chiefs beat the Ravens by twenty points on the road last week, and welcome a Browns team that has the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA. Not only that, but the Browns’ last close loss against a team with a winning record was back in week six against an offensively challenged Broncos team.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Lions (-8.5)

The Lions have had a strange season that started badly and led to coach firings and their owner clearing house in the front office. The change in offensive coordinator does seem to have had an effect on the offence, but it is hard to know what direction they will go in the offseason until we know who will be making the decisions. This includes whether the Lions will keep Jim Caldwell, who managed to get the win last week against the Saints, but never strikes you as the most demonstrative of head coaches. I don’t know if this is actually a bad thing, but without following the team really closely or interacting with him as an individual it is hard to gauge, and hiring a head coach is one of the key things a GM gets to do so the new appointment may well want to pick their own candidate.

This week the Lions welcome the struggling 49ers to Detroit, but given the amount of talent the 49ers lost it is going to be a difficult few seasons in San Francisco. The most hopeful conversation I have heard recently for the 49ers is that in Blaine Gabbert they have found a quarterback that could hold the fort for them whilst they develop a quarterback behind him. Certainly the draft doesn’t seem to hold a ready to start quarterback this year and the 49ers have too many holes to reach for one if there is a better player at another position.

The 49ers defence has played better at home this year, but with them being on the road it is hard to foresee anything other than a win for the Lions, particularly as they lost to the Browns after their last win against the Bears. However, this feels like too many points to me, and so whilst I don’t feel confident about it I will back the 49ers to cover

Gee’s Pick:      49ers

Texans @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans season has not seen them get a lot of wins, but their defence has been better this year, and they appear to have a young quarterback they can build round. This was not enough to keep Ken Whisenhunt in a job, and Mike Mularkey may not have won enough games to make the job his either. Only time will tell what is going to happen in Tennessee this offseason, but it will be one to keep an eye on.

The Texans have had a strange year, but thanks to playing in the AFC South and the problems in Indianapolis they stand atop of the division with a 7-7 record. They have had four different people play quarterback for them this year, thanks to a combination of the early indecision by head coach Bill O’Brien and recent injuries. However, the defence has come around from earlier in the season, and JJ Watt has quietly been having another stellar year despite breaking his hand in practice a couple of weeks ago.

The Texans may be on the road this week, but with the playoffs within their grasp I can’t see them losing to the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans

Colts @ Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins were one of the teams that had supposedly done well in the offseason, but as is often the case this did not translate into actual wins. There have been multiple coach firings and you have to think that interim head coach Dan Campbell will be gone at the end of the season. There are points of hope for the franchise, but as I have said multiple times on the podcast, they will need to address their secondary and offensive line if they want to compete in a tough division.

The Colts season has been a mess, and whilst backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck defied my reasoning that Ryan Grigson had not done a good job building a roster around Andrew Luck for a couple of games, he his now showing his age as repeatedly gets hit. Their offence has struggled all year, whilst their defence has taken a small step back, but there could be changes in the offseason as owner James Irsay cannot be happy with the way things have gone.

I don’t really want to pick either side in this game, but I will go for the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets (+3.5)

The Jets have had a very good season in Todd Bowles’s first year as head coach, with both sides of the ball improving and some stability finally seeming to descend on an often turbulent franchise. Some of the additions in the offseason don’t look to be long term solutions due to the age of players, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has been undeniably effective with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as they look to secure a playoff berth.

The Patriots season could have been derailed by injuries were it not for the continued excellence of Bill Belichick and his staff. For many there will always be an asterisk next to Belichick’s name, but he is an undeniably great coach and to keep his team winning with the injury issues they have had on the offensive line and receiver. The defence retooled their secondary successfully after letting their Super Bowl winning starting corners go in the offseason, but have managed to maintain their record despite changing their approach.

However, Belichick is already discussing resting starters having had it serve him well last season and with them being on the road I suspect this will be a tight game in New York given that the Jets only lost by a touchdown in New England. I could regret this, but I am going to take the points in this one as I believe it will be a close game.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets

Steelers @ Ravens (+10.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are usually seen as a well run franchise, but the questions I had about their secondary were compounded by a string of injuries that has led them to have a horrible season. You would trust the infrastructure to rebuild successfully in the offseason, but this is a rare write-off year for this team.

The Steelers have had their own injury woes this season, including the loss of arguably the best running back in the league, but with an outstanding trio of receivers their offence is still terrifying and their defence has been doing enough for them to be making a late surge into playoff contention.

The Ravens lost a tight overtime game earlier in the season, and will be desperate to stick it to a divisional rival and possibly stop them getting into the playoffs. I would love to pick the Ravens, but with the questions at quarterback and how well the Steelers offence is playing I can’t bring myself to do it, so although it wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens did manage to keep it close, I think the Steelers will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers

Jaguars @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints are in salary cap hell, and their defence has looked simply horrendous as it is rooted to the bottom of the Football Outsiders DOVA rankings with a huge gap to the thirty-first ranked San Diego defence. There are rumours of Sean Payton going to Miami, or any other team the Saints face with questions at head coach, but he has been unable to sort his defence suspensions since the Bounty Gate suspensions so it will be interesting to see how he does next season whether he is in New Orleans or not. They have managed to look good at times on offence, but Drew Brees is now dealing with a partially torn planter facsia having had shoulder problems early in the year, and he has been the reason the offence has worked when it has done so this could be a rough end to the season for the fans in New Orleans.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been maddeningly inconsistent this year, showing good progress on offence, but not quite being able to get results consistently. They have possibly done enough to keep head coach Gus Bradley in a job for another year, but the defence needs to improve if they are truly going to compete for the division. However, they have a good young nucleus on offence with a pair of receivers and a tight end that can compete with most teams, and if Black Bortles can reduce the mistakes further then they could be a real handful.

For this game, with Drew Brees as an injury worry and given the Saints’ passing defence, I will very happily take the points and hope the Jaguars don’t trip me up again.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars

Packers @ Cardinals (-4.5)

The Cardinals took a big blow with the loss of Tyrann Mathieu last week, but head coach Bruce Arians kept his team in contention last year despite losing two starting quarterbacks to injury so I trust that he will find a way. The Cardinals aggressive offence and defence has seen them win the AFC West, and they will be looking to make a deep run into the playoffs.

The Packers have had a difficult year, with struggles at times on both sides of the ball, but they have still made it to a 10-4 record that most teams would love to have. However, whilst the return of Mike McCarthy to play calling duties has produced wins in recent weeks, I am not convinced that it has solved everything and certainly the passing game is not functioning how we have come to expect from Aaron Rodgers.

The points make me pause slightly, but I think Arizona are the better team, and whilst there is a lot of talk that there will be a large number of Packer fans in attendance, I think that the Cardinals will win this one and cover these points.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals

Rams @ Seahawks (-13.5)

The Seahawks had a turbulent start to the season, but as has often been the case in recent years, come to the business end of the season the team starts to come good. The defence might have taken a slight step back when compared to their recent greatness, but Russell Wilson has started the transformation to a pocket passer and has really taken ownership of the offence since he lost tight end Jimmy Graham to injury.

The Rams have also had another turbulent season, but theirs seems to be ending in the usual nearly but not quite season. The defence hasn’t quite lived up to where they could be despite defensive tackle Aaron Donald having a monster season, but the real problem has been on offence. For much of the season they have had no real passing game to speak of, allowing teams to focus on stopping Todd Gurley once he was brought into the starting line-up. However, they do seem to have improved since the firing of their offensive coordinator two weeks ago, and whilst I don’t expect them to win this game, I do wonder if they can keep this game close than the points suggest.

I am not confident in this pick, but I will back the Rams to cover in divisional game.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams

Gaints @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Vikings continue their progress under Mike Zimmer, with a tough defence and an offence that does enough for them to win. Whilst quarterback Teddy Bridgwater might not throw the prettiest ball you have ever seen, he seems to be progressing and has thrown for over three hundred and fifty yards for the last two games.

The Giants have been in contention for the NFC East for most of the year, but this has mainly been on the back of Eli Manning throwing to Odell Beckham. However, the talented young star lost control last week and won’t be playing this week after trying to knock Josh Norman out of the game. This could be the last season for Tom Coughlin despite winning two Super Bowls as he is the oldest head coach in the league and the Giants have not been consistent or good enough this season. In fairness, this team doesn’t have a lot of talent, and has particularly struggled on defence this year, so I will be curious to see what direction they take in the offseason.

This is a lot of points for the Vikings to cover, but under the circumstances I think they have enough to do it against a Giants team who don’t’ really have anything to play for any more.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings

Bengals @ Broncos (-3.5)

The Broncos have slipped in recent weeks. The defence was on another level earlier in the season, but needed to do better against the Steelers last week to get a win. That said, with turmoil at quarterback, and a running game that has been inconsistent, some might argue that they have done well to amass the record they have. It has been something of a transition year for the Broncos with a new coaching staff and offensive philosophy, but they look like they have found a serviceable replacement for Manning and I would expect them to resign Osweiler at the end of the season. They will be looking to hold onto a division lead and push on into the playoffs, but it is still possible for them to drop out of the playoffs altogether so welcoming a Bengals team missing their starting quarterback to Denver might be something of a relief.

The Bengals’ season has gone so well for much of the year, but the injury to Andy Dalton has really hampered their push for playoff success. The Bengals managed to get the win against the 49ers with a steady offensive performance, but it did not look easy and so it is hard to tell how they will go against an impressive Broncos defence. That said, the defence continues to play well despite the injuries in the secondary, and they have a chance to set a record for fewest points allowed in a sixteen game season. The aim for this season was always a playoff win, and a bye would give Andy Dalton an improved chance of being healthy and playing, but is hard to know if the Bengals will finally break the drought in their fifth straight try under Marvin Lewis given the circumstances.

I am always worried about the Bengals, which given their history is perhaps not surprising, but I am finding it hard to predict this game as we just don’t know what AJ McCarron is going to do. I’m going to reluctantly back the Broncos to cover, and I will be more than happy if my pessimism is proved to be ill-founded, but I suspect it isn’t.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos

Odell Beckham and Josh Norman on Coaching Tape, plus the Early Week 16 Picks

24 Thursday Dec 2015

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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It was always my intention to look at the coaching tape of the matchup between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman as it was one of the most enticing prospects of the year coming into week fifteen. We were expecting to see a competition between two of the young stars of the NFL, with Beckham making breathtaking catches all through his short career and Norman being talking about as a candidate for defensive player of the year. I am going to focus on what I saw on tape, rather than go fully into all of the mess that has so dominated the post game coverage, but with Norman fined and Beckham suspended I cannot just ignore what went on after the whistle and sometimes during the play.

The first thing for me to say is that I can’t know what was said before or during the game, the amount of accusations thrown around after the game seems to be an attempt to distract from a spectacle that made neither player look good. However, there is plenty of blame to go around as there were plenty of signs that Beckham was not playing under control and neither team leaders nor coaches were able to bring him back from the edge. It is understandable that in such a physical game as football that players have to play with a fire, but there has to be a line that you don’t cross and Beckham hurt his team with a number of penalties. It is also disappointing that in 2015 we are still dealing with the questioning of a player’s manhood and the throwing around of homophobic slurs as accepted ways of trying to get into the opposition’s head. There is not the same organised chanting at football games in the States as there is over here in terms of songs and a terrace willing to say anything to put off the opposition, but the culture of masculinity is very similar and it is something that should be dismantled in a systematic way. Without going back and watching the game as broadcast it is hard for me to comment on what was going on between plays, but this was not what the NFL was hoping the matchup would look like going into the game.

Anyway, moving on to the game film, this game didn’t look to me quite as eventful as the highlights and the coverage has made it appear. I will be asking Dan about the game on the next podcast as I know he is intending to watch it, but in terms of what I could see on tape there were more snaps where Norman and Beckham lined up and not a lot happened than there were problems. The Giants move Beckham round the formation and bring him in motion to try to get him open. Meanwhile the Panthers played a mixture of zone and man, with Norman covering Beckham at times and others he was on the opposite sides of the field as both players lined up on either side of the formation.

We are used to seeing the spectacular catches and the impressive numbers for Odell Beckham, but he only had six catches in this game and a lot of the yards he did gain were wiped out by penalties he gave away. He also had a couple of drops, but what was striking on tape was his ability to get open. He is both quick and sudden, which enables him to often get open whether he is finding a way through zone coverage or in a one on one matchup. The touchdown he caught at the end of the game was from a lovely double move, that allowed him to get behind Norman to make the catch, and that wasn’t the only time he got behind Norman. There was a lovely deep post pattern that he ran in the third quarter creating a deep play opportunity, but Eli Manning couldn’t quite get the ball to him. The thing I will say about Beckham’s temperament in this game was that it was not just Norman that Beckham was petulant with, he ran into several safeties and other corners as the coverage rotated. I was also getting frustrated by his blocking in the running game as several times he bumped with a shoulder rather than truly engaging as a blocker. I don’t know how he is coached so it may be that this is what the team want him to do, but later in the game there was a snap where he engaged and turned his corner on a run play so he can do it. The egregious play to me was the running play where he went past Norman who did take a swipe at him, but Beckham came back down the field and clearly tried to take Norman out with a helmet to helmet hit. With the emphasis on player safety it was an outrageously dangerous play and you could easily argue that he should have been ejected from the game for that alone. It was hard to always see what was going on between snaps, but there was at least one play where part of an officiating crew put themselves between Beckham and Norman after the whistle had blown.

Focussing on Josh Norman, the coverage of him this season has been very positive, but looking at his play I would not say that he is quite the man on man lockdown corner that some would have you believe. That is not to say that he isn’t playing well as he really is, but the Panthers play a fair amount of zone but it looks different to the three deep zone with almost man corner play that you see if you were to watch Richard Sherman in Seattle. However, Norman is similar to Sherman in that he moves well and has the length to bother receivers and cause disruption. This is however, a great defence at all levels and on the all twenty-two you could see receivers passed smoothly between corners, safeties, and linebackers, as the receiver ran their route through the defence’s zones. Norman was clearly taking his chances to be physical where he could, and was called for his own unnecessary roughness penalties apart from the retaliation for the helmet to helmet hit. It was clear that he was niggling at Beckham for chunks of the game, and there was one play were he clearly just went for the head area of Beckham.

With one player suspended and another fined, neither has created a good look for the NFL. More worryingly for Beckham is that he clearly let things get to him and so he will see a lot more of this needling tactic as he is too good a receiver to cover conventionally, and has revealed a potential weakness that the rest of the league will see if they can exploit. Only time will tell if this will be a problem, but in what is one of the most team orientated of sports, Beckham will have to learn integrate his phenomenal talents into the team ethic if he wants to win games. As for Josh Norman, he will be watched closely, and let’s hope he can find the balance between being competitive and detrimental to his team.

And now onto the first picks of week sixteen that are immediately around Christmas day, with me managing to eek out another game on Dan last week.

Gee:    Week 15   11-5                       Overall   119-105
Dan:    Week 15   10-6                       Overall   110-114

Chargers @ Raiders (-5.5)

The Raiders have definitely made progress this season, but they are still making the mistakes of a young team. They lost to the Green Bay Packers last week, and still have plenty of areas that they need to develop, but in 2014 they drafted Khalil Mack and Derek Carr, then followed it up this year with Amari Cooper, so there is hope for a franchise that sat in the doldrums for too long that they can continue to build and develop. This is another team that could be on the move, although I’m not sure any team has the votes they require to get a move approved by the other owners, but given the games last week I expect this to be an emotional occasion in Oakland.

The Chargers got the win that so many players wanted in what was possibly the last game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. However, there is so much in flux for this team with it being up in the air where they will play next season, and likely who will coach them. They have been beset by injuries on the line, but they had problems with this last year as well, and they have a closing window given that as good as Philip Rivers has been, he is thirty-four.

In this game I think that the Chargers come back to Earth as they are not a good team, and with the Raiders at home for possibly the last time and them definitely heading in the right direction I think they will cover these points. It might also be another big day for Khalil Mack given the problems in pass protection that the Chargers have had all season.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Washington @ Eagles (-2.5)

There was a power struggle in the offseason at the Eagles, which Chip Kelly won, but I am not sure how much the total control of personnel has been of benefit. Initially I could see a plan in what he was doing, trusting his scheme on offence and focus his efforts on getting players for their defence, but the plan seemed to be ignored for some of his moves. However, a lot of talent has been shipped out over the last couple of seasons and it will be telling if he retains control over personnel and is given time to continue with his plan, or if some power is taken back or worse still if he is fired. On the field it has been a real mix with some good performances but nothing for them to really hang their hat on. The offence started of struggling, before they found a way to run the ball, but whilst high priced free agent DeMarco Murray might lead the team in rushing, he seems to have slipped down the pecking order and does not seem to fit the system. It appears that Sam Bradford is becoming more comfortable in the offence, but this is not the offence people were expecting to see coming into the year. More worrying is that the defence, which for much of the year looked like the stronger unit, has struggled in recent weeks and has given up forty points or more in three of the last five games.

This week the Eagles welcome a Washington team to Philadelphia who are currently a game clear at the top of the NFC East and who could clinch a playoff birth with a win in this game. It was not the most auspicious of starts for Jay Gruden in Washington, but you have to admire the way he stuck to his guns regarding the Robert Griffin situation and it would appear the starting quarterback question has been solved for now. The other thing that seems to have helped was the appointment of Scott McCloughan as GM, with his focus on building through the draft looking like it has been of benefit already, and I will be curious to see how they continue in the offseason. On the field the team has not excelled on offence or defence, although their special teams are ranked sixth in the league by DVOA. However, Kirk Cousins has managed to find a balance between willingness to make aggressive throws and protecting the ball. The team have played better in Washington than on the road, which makes me nervous about picking this game, but I do not trust the Eagles and if I am getting two and a half points then I am going to take them.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington