Monthly Archives: September 2018

2018 Week Four Picks

30 Sunday Sep 2018

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These are not a nice set of lines as we head into week four of the regular season, but first there’s the matter of our trivia competition:

‘So, now we move onto Week 4 where I want to know Who is Captain Fear and which team does he support?’

I’m going to have to take a complete shot in the dark here and suggest he founded the Black Hole fan group and therefore supports the Oakland Raiders.

‘It’s back to guessing again this week for me, but I think the word ‘Captain’ is the giveaway – I think Captain Fear is the pirate mascot of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.‘

Bengals @ Falcons (-5.5)

This is an important game for the Bengals as they will want to keep the pressure on the Ravens in the AFC North and they will want to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Panthers. They were in the Panthers game until the fourth quarter even if their run defence was bad, but the turnovers weren’t really Dalton’s fault and this week they travel to face an Atlanta team that keep losing starting players. The Falcon’s offence found its scoring mojo in last week’s crazy game with the Saints but the Bengals defence is a very different unit. I’m not definitively predicting the Bengals to win, but I absolutely feel like they will be within six points by the end of the game and I’m hoping for the win.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

‘I actually think Bengals could end up doing pretty well in this one. Not only do I think they’ll cover, I think they’ll win!’

Bills @ Packers (-10.5)

The Green Bay Packers went to Washington and got thumped so I’m a little surprised that they are giving eleven points in this game. I’m not saying that everything is suddenly fixed for the Bills, but they got a tough road win and whilst there could be a let-down, this is too many points for me to give when Aaron Rodgers is not fit and the defence of the Packers is ranked twenty-seventh in the league by DVOA

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

‘This is REALLY difficult to pick. A week ago I’d have said easily Packers, but with that spread, and with their performance last week against the Vikings, I’m going to go with the Bills.’

Buccaneers @ Bears (-2.5)

This is a truly fascinating game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers nearly managed to pull back their Monday night game against the Steelers after a disastrous first half where Ryan Fitzpatrick kept throwing interceptions. Given that he was the first NFL quarterback to throw for four hundred yards in three straight games it feels like he has to come back to earth a little. Particularly against a Chicago Bears defence that currently ranks number one by DVOA and boasts the early candidate for defensive player of the year in Khalil Mack who is making every Raiders fan sad about the strange trade that sent him to the Bears. The problem for the Bears is that as well as Matt Nagy’s offence looks to be schemed, the instinct of Mitch Trubisky is to tuck and run, which right now looks as if it could hold back this team. I’m not confident about this, but in the end I’m going with the quarterback that I have a little more faith in and the thing that he seems to have going with his co-ordinator Todd Monken calling the plays.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

‘Could we see the return of Jameis Winston? Probably not. Buccs win.’

Lions @ Cowboys (-2.5)

This is a fairly straight forward pick to me, which probably means I’m about to get this horribly wrong but the Dallas Cowboys look to be in trouble. The offence just isn’t working as they haven’t replaced either Jason Witten or Dez Bryant and so Dak Prescott is lacking options in the passing game just when the offensive line has some injuries and isn’t the dominant unit it has been in recent season. If things weren’t bad enough, the defence’s talisman Sean Lee is out and so I don’t fancy them at all against a Detroit Lions team who seem to have been improving week to week and who I fancy to get a win on the road in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

‘Fourth game in a row I’m going for the road team! Lions for me in this one.’

Eagles @ Titans (+3.5)

This is very much a strange game to pick given that the Tennessee Titans have won the last two games by a field goal despite the nerve injury that is hampering Marcus Mariota who didn’t even start the last game and they have an overall ranking of twenty-fourth by DVOA. The Philadelphia Eagles are having a difficult start to the season thanks to the injuries they have but at least Carson Wentz is back behind centre. Thanks to the points I’m really undecided about this one so in the end I’m going to grab the points for a home underdog.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

‘Make that 5! The Titans haven’t actually looked as poor as I thought they might after week one, and have won their last couple. That being said, I think the Eagles have a good feel about them and will want to really establish themselves with Wentz back. Eagles win.’

Texans @ Colts (-0.5)

This is a really important game for the 0 – 3 Houston Texans who have really struggled thanks to an offensive line that is not getting the job done and problems in their secondary. This week they travel to face an Indianapolis Colts team who have looked competitive all season as Andrew Luck works his way back from his long term shoulder injury and the defence quietly has improved to just outside the top ten by DVOA through three weeks. I’m trying to balance up the desperation of the Texans to finally get a win vs the clear problems they are having and a line that is giving me no help whatsoever. This is another game I don’t have a hugely strong feel for so I’m going to grab the home team and hope.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Texans

‘Difficult one to call, but I think the Texans will do this.’

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

I find this a curious line because as difficult as it is to see the New England Patriots losing three games in a row there are real problems with both the receiving options and the balance of the offence as well as the defence. The Miami Dolphins however have hugely benefitted from having Ryan Tannehill back from injury and look to have impressive speed on offence whilst the defence has played tough all season and the Dolphins are currently ranked second in the league by DVOA. I’m not saying the Dolphins will definitely win but I they are more likely to be within seven than not.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Miami to win at Gillette Stadium for the first time since 2008.’

Jets @ Jaguars (-7.5)

I am going to resist reading too much into the Jaguars loss last week as divisional games can be funny but they will want to get things back on track this week as they host the New York Jets who have very much struggled since their opening win against the Detroit Lions. I find it hard to predict that Sam Darnold (who is going through the usual rookie difficulties) suddenly having an easier time against the Jaguars defence. The Jets were competitive with a poor roster last season but on the road I see them struggling yet this number of points worries me. However, in the end I can’t quite bring myself to pick them. I may well regret this.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘New York will want to get back to winning ways after losing to the Browns, and while I don’t think they’ll do that this week, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown I wouldn’t have thought.’

Browns @ Raiders (-2.5)

The Cleveland Browns travel to Oakland to seek their first consecutive wins in four years with the Baker Mayfield era definitely started. However, it will be a different test coming in as the starter but Mayfield made such a difference to the way the Browns’ offence operated whilst their defence has been better all year. That said, whilst I don’t exactly trust them, the Browns face a Raiders team who are winless this season but there are signs that the Browns won’t have it all their own way. The Raiders have been competitive for the last two games and having started the season against the juggernaut Rams they have been on the road for those two games as well. The Raiders will be desperate to get their first win and I find it just too hard to predict a Browns win two weeks in a row.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

‘Can’t see the Browns winning this week. The Raiders didn’t look too bad last week and I think they’ve got enough about them to win here.’

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+3.5)

I thought the Arizona Cardinals would have a tough season but they have truly struggled and have now made the move to start rookie quarterback Josh Rosen but he faces an uphill task. That said the Cardinals did manage to get out to a fourteen-point lead last week until they succumbed to a Chicago Bears comeback. However, whilst the Seattle Seahawks have not exactly looked good, they have been competitive and are coming off their first win of the season. I don’t have a strong feel for this game, which has recent years has been a tense close battle between divisional opponents and in the end I’m going to grab the points and not feel confident at all.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

‘Can’t really decide on this one, but seeing as I’ve got to, I’ll go Seattle.’

Saints @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants got their first win last week on the road going against a poor Texans team and this week they welcome a New Orleans Saints team whose offence is top five by DVOA and whose defence is bottom five. There is a big difference for the Saints when Drew Brees is on the road outdoors than in a dome but the bad weather has not truly hit yet and I have so much more faith in the Brees led offence than what Eli Manning is producing at the moment. I might really regret this but I’m backing the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

‘They might have needed overtime to get the win last week against Atlanta, but I think they’ll settle this one fairly comfortably this week. Saints to win.’

49ers @ Chargers (-10.5)

This is a tricky game for me in that yes the San Francisco 49ers have lost Jimmy Garoppolo for the season but I mentally have a picture of the LA Chargers struggling to win games by a lot However, they have managed a win by eleven already this season and totalled five such wins last season and so now I swinging back and forth on this one. In the end this feels like too many points for a team that I don’t entirely trust so I’m reluctantly picking the 49ers to cover against one of the worst home advantages in the league but I’m not convinced.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

‘It’s tempting to pick the 49ers given the 10.5 spread, but I’m going to say LA because the 49ers are a bit broken.’

Ravens @ Steelers (-3.5)

This should be a cracking game that sees the Baltimore Ravens facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in a huge divisional game where the Steelers will be looking to get their second win of the season. The Ravens got back to winning ways last week having paired an improved offence with their traditionally strong defence. I like them to keep this game close and given the issues the Steelers have on defence and how I don’t expect Flacco to turn the ball over with the same rate as Fitzpatrick did on Monday I think this will be a close game and the extra half point has me backing the Ravens to keep this within a field goal if not win.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

‘This could really go either way. I’m going to call Ravens but I won’t be overly surprised if I don’t get this one.’

Chiefs @ Broncos (+5.5)

The Denver Broncos have improved on offence this year but their defence also looks to have taken a step back and as much as they have a good home advantage, particularly early in the season, they face a Kansas City Chiefs team with the best offence in the league right now. Andy Reid will be very comfortable with his trading away of Alex Smith given that Patrick Mahomes has thrown for thirteen touchdowns and no interceptions through the three games of this season. Even with their home advantage the Broncos have not beaten the Chiefs since 2015 but the question is whether they can keep this game with six and that still has me struggling to make up my mind given the Chiefs bottom of the league defence. I expect the Chiefs to win this game but on the road for the third time in four weeks against a divisional opponent I’m nervously going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

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AAF: Josh Allen

30 Sunday Sep 2018

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After this Thursday night’s game it would appear that the Minnesota Vikings defence might not be the same unit as it was last season, but for the week three coaching tape I had to look at the break out game from Josh Allen for this amateur adventures in film post.

The first thing I think it is important to say is that although Josh Allen finished with a passer rating of 111.2, his performance was a little bit mixed but that isn’t perhaps surprising given that he only had a completion percentage in the fifties whilst in college. The obvious thing that will have tantalised the Bills’ coaching staff is his arm as he can and did make some amazing throws, including jumping in the air on one play in the second half. However, the flow of the game meant that most of what was impressive happened in the first half if not the first quarter. His first touchdown of the game demonstrated his impressive athleticism even before he did his best superman dive to get to the pylon. The Bills’ offensive coaching were clearly helping him with a lot of play action when passing and he was not asked to sit in the pocket and make complex reads but make quick decisions and get the ball out. There was a play in the second half when he did drop back nicely, sit and then deliver the ball sharply but he doesn’t have the smoothest footwork and he will often have his coaches heart in his mouth as he believes in his arm and will let it go. However, he will really have to work on the fine details of being an NFL quarterback and one of them that was highlighted through the frequent play action plays was his frankly perfunctorily fake handoffs where the ball was more gestured at the running back than offered and it is the small details like this that could really help him as it will keep the defence off balance by making them commit to defending the run. It definitely began to bug me through the game so I’ll treat you all to the fake Andy Dalton pulled off last week and it shows the power of working on a fundamental of being a quarterback so watch this.

In the second half as the game drew on the Bills very much started to run the ball to run out the clock, but take nothing away from this young man who has given his team a spark after they really struggled in the first two games and he does not have a great offensive line or skill players. He did spin into trouble a couple of times, and was very lucky that a ball that was stripped because he spun with the ball held out was recovered but I have no doubt the coaches will have been highlighting that this week. It is far too early to tell how far he can go, but Josh Allen definitely has talent and the big question is how he develops with NFL coaching, which will be crucial to see if he can become the franchise quarterback the front office of Buffalo are hoping he’ll be. As I say a lot, only time will tell but he at least has the tools to work with and as more and more college concepts find their way into the NFL he has a fighting chance.

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 4

27 Thursday Sep 2018

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Thanks to a bit of a recovery last week, Dan and I are now level on points and only one point behind his dad, although I would still like to get back to a winning record. We also finally opened our accounts in the trivia quiz! Anyway, time to size up what is one of the best Thursday night matchups I can remember.

Gee: Week 3 8-8 Overall 23-25
Dan: Week 3 6-10 Overall 23-25

Vikings @ Rams (-6.5)

These two teams come into this game coming off very different Sundays with the Rams winning pretty easily against the Chargers and the Vikings getting thoroughly outplayed by the Buffalo Bills. The Rams have some injuries that worry me at corner given that both Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are injured but whilst I do think their last game was a blip, the Vikings are on the road and I fancy the Rams to roll out winners in this one. The points give me pause for concern but the Rams don’t let up in games and will be looking to avenge the loss they had in Minnesota last year so I’ll lay the points and hope during what should be a cracking game.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

‘I’m picking the Vikings – I think the Rams will win but despite last week’s result I think it’ll be closer than a touchdown. Don’t know why – just a feeling!’

Week 4 Trivia

‘Last week I asked what was the Newest NFL Stadium to be opened and both Gee and Dan opened their account for this season.

So, now we move onto Week 4 where I want to know Who is Captain Fear and which team does he support?’

Plays, Penalties, and Injuries

26 Wednesday Sep 2018

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18-09-26 Josh Allen TD

Image Credit: wyosports.net

So Wednesday marks the transition from one NFL week to the next as I move from catching up on games and highlights, evaluating the news to preparing to make picks, even if I won’t start the coaching tape for Week three until tomorrow, but more of that later.

I’m currently reading The Score Take Care of Itself by Bill Walsh, and whilst I haven’t got very far yet, the section on the 49ers losing to the Miami Dolphins and coping with adversity rings ever so true. This week we have some coaches who will be facing down despair and problems, whilst others will have taken a moment to savour a win before swiftly moving on to the next week’s game.

The usual king of this, as exemplified by his famous, ‘We’re on to Cincinnati.’ press conference back in 2014, is Bill Belichick who will be trying to turn around the fortunes of his 1-2 team who got thoroughly outplayed by the Detroit Lions. I’m not sure too many people saw that one coming and we had a couple of reminders in week 3 of the old maxim that anything could happen on any given Sunday. The Patriots struggled on offensive as they continue to falter when running the ball and haven’t found the right mix in the passing game. We may see Josh Gordon if they can get him worked into the mix this week and after they take on the Dolphins this weekend they will have Julian Edelman back from suspension but it could take a while for this be sorted. I’m not going to overreact as it is early and I’ve written several times about how the Patriots plan to peak later in the season but for context the Patriots haven’t lost three straight since 2002 when they had a four game losing streak and missed out on the playoffs (they still had a winning 9-7 record).

Perhaps more surprising even than the Lions getting a win over the Patriots was the Buffalo Bills travelling to Minnesota and beating the Vikings 27-6 as Josh Allen managed to rushing touchdowns as well as a passing one. The Vikings will be looking to shake things off quickly as they are on the road in LA for the Thursday night game against the Rams and I’ve heard several people suggest that the Vikings had one eye on this game and that is why they had such a surprisingly poor game against a team they overlooked. I always find such talk a little troubling as I have no way of verifying and the infrastructure for the Vikings is such that my default would be to think it was an aberration that will quickly be righted but given the Packers (who the Vikings drew with last week) lost to Washington this week and the only team the Vikings have beat are the 49ers there is perhaps some concern that there might be deeper problems. Definitely one to keep and eye on, whilst I will have to take a look at Josh Allen on coaching tape this week to find out just how he managed to lead the Bills to a comfortable win.

In fact, there’s quite a lot I wish I could watch in more details including games I didn’t even see the highlights for. Apart from the two upsets I have already mentioned, the New York Giants travelled to the Houston Texans and won, surely placing even more pressure on head coach Bill O’Brien, whilst the Tennessee Titans managed to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars despite starting Blaine Gabbert and then having to play Marcus Mariota despite the limitations he has from a nerve injury when Gabbert was ruled out the game with a concussion. It has to be said that Mike Vrabel has done well to win two games given his quarterback situation and whilst it is far too small a sample size to draw any big conclusions about him as a coach, it is encouraging. Less encouraging is a third loss for  Oakland Raiders under Jon Gruden who along with the Arizona Cardinals join the Texans as the only teams yet to register a win this season.

The Atlanta Falcons lost a barnstormer of a game 42-37 to the New Orleans Saints, with Drew Brees spinning to get the winning score and the Falcons losing a second starting safety for the season to injury so things are getting increasingly tough for them.

Sadly for the San Francisco 49ers, Jimmy Garoppplo was lost for the season with a torn ACL as he tried to gain some extra yards rushing out of bounds. There has been a lot of focus on the steps the NFL are taking to protect the quarterbacks and with the effect losing that one player has on a team I can understand it up to a point. However, with another seemingly form tackle by Clay Matthews resulting in a penalty, not to mention the string of penalties some linemen are picking up in games the new interpretation of the roughing the passer penalty is definitely a huge talking point. In fact the Dolpins (who I’m sure Dan would like me to remind you are 3-0) lost William Hayes to a torn ACL on a sack that head coach Adam Gase is blaming on the new rules. If players are injuring themselves trying to comply with the new rules and some of the bigger name quarterbacks are suggesting that things have gone too far then perhaps the league will look at it. I don’t want to argue that the league has gone soft, and frankly I think this has more to do with keeping the star quarterbacks playing the safety concerns, but a lot of the plays that have been penalised were simply tackles and I have no idea how a two hundred and ninety pound player fighting his way past an offensive linemen to tackle a quarterback, who are often not exactly small themselves, are supposed to lay said quarterback gently to the turf so they don’t risk an injury. You need a certain amount of momentum to tackle a player and explosiveness to get there before the pass is thrown so a lot of these defenders are being put in a very difficult if not an impossible position.

There have been a number of exciting games, and I think we’d all much rather be focussing attention on say the amazing start to the season Patrick Mahomes has had in Andy Reid’s offence or how the LA Rams are ominously rolling through the season, but until the roughing the passer penalties slow down the conversation about the zebras could keep dominating the conversation and frankly I’d much rather be focussed on the surprises and the good play that is happening in the league. After all, the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills won this week, all things are possible.

High-fives All Round!

26 Wednesday Sep 2018

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So, we’re three weeks into the season now, and things are starting to spice up a bit!

Where to start this week? Suppose I’ll start with the Dolphins as is traditional. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we’re 3-0 – how on earth did that happen?! We’ve not looked overwhelmingly fantastic this year so far, but have been doing enough to win games, which I suppose is all that matters. With only one of our first three opponents going into Week 4 with a winning record (the Titans, if you’re asking), the Patriots this week are going to be a real test.

Performance-wise, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Tannehill and his receiving team seem to be on the same page and working well together, and a special mention this week has to go to Albert Wilson for not only taking the QB role in a trick play touchdown, but also managing to run in a 74 yard touchdown which won us the game – if he doesn’t get a Madden Team of the Week card in Ultimate Team this week, I’ll be very disappointed.

On the other side of the ball though, the Defence weren’t as good as they have been for the first two weeks. Some of that’s down to injury (and ejection!) meaning the line were taking a lot more reps than they would usually have in the Florida sun, but we’ll have to wait and see how they pick up next week.

Elsewhere, there were some comings and goings at the QB position – it was Carson Wentz’ first game since his mid-season injury last year, and he wasted very little time in getting back into the swing of things. That’s hardly surprising though given that the reports coming out of Philadelphia suggested he was keeping deeply ingrained in the foundations of the team during his absence, and was frequently seen as the Eagles biggest fan in their run up to the Super Bowl. Bit harsh on Nick Foles though, I must say. He’s not done too badly this year so far but it’s clear they feel that Wentz is their Franchise QB for years to come, so it makes sense to bring him back.

Jimmy G though has gone the other way. He came off mid-game on Sunday with an injury which has turned out to be an ACL tear officially ruling him out for the rest of the season. I’m really disappointed about this – he was such an energising force for the 49ers at the end of last season (who remembers how badly they were doing before he joined?!) and while it hadn’t completely carried over into this season, he won’t be playing any further part this year.

Oh hang on, how have I got this far into this week’s post without mentioning the BROWNS?! The fans in Cleveland woke up on Friday feeling like it was Christmas morning… not least because the last time they woke up after a win it WAS Christmas Day… in 2016! (Note – I cant take credit for this. Neil Reynolds pointed this out on twitter the other day!). I’m really pleased for Browns fans. I don’t think they’ll get too many wins this year, but they seem to be in a much better place than they have been.

Betting update:

At what point should it get tempting to cash out?! The Rams are now showing themselves as the actual favourites for the Super Bowl this year (according to bet365 anyway!) but it is of course still early days!

Oh, and less said about picks and fantasy the better – stupidly, after sending my picks to Gee, I think I forgot to actually submit them, and as a result, it didn’t register, so this week I’m very thankful to Gee for being the organised member of the team who keeps spreadsheets of this kind of thing! I take back everything I said last week when I was rubbing in the fact I was beating him (although… I think I still am!). [We are in fact level after three weeks -Ed.]

How are your team doing so far this year? Is anyone particularly surprising you so far? Drop me a line on twitter and lets have a chat!

This time next week, I’ll be in Dubai with Mrs. B celebrating our anniversary, so my Dad will be filling my shoes and making his picks for the week against Gee. Be gentle on him – he’s a Vikings fan so hasn’t finished scratching his head over how they managed to lose to the Bills!

Speak to you in a couple of weeks…

@TWFDan

AAF: Patriots Offence vs Jaguars Defence

23 Sunday Sep 2018

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So for week two the matchup that cried out to be looked at in my continuing amateur adventures in film was the New England Patriots offence as they took on the Jaguars defence.

The Jaguars defence looked much how they did last season in that they really rely on their defensive line to get pass rush (although I thought they blitzed a bit more in this game than I was used to) and good coverage to stifle offences. It was also very obvious, particularly in the second half although I could have missed it that they were working really hard to disguise their coverages as their safeties move back and forwards trying to not give anything away.

The Patriots offence is always interesting to study and this game was no different. They use a lot more 21 personnel (two running backs and a tight end) than most teams but that didn’t necessarily mean that would line-up with two backs in the back field. If fact they would even go as far as to line-up with an empty backfield and both James White and fullback James Develin would run routes with White in particular being a genuine target for Brady and finished the game with seventy-three passing yards on seven receptions from eight targets. In fact I think the Patriots do a greater variety of things with the same personnel groupings than any other team in the league (waits for someone to prove me wrong).

However, there is a reason that they just traded with the Browns for Josh Gordon and that is that James White actually led the team in receiving yards in this game. They ran plenty of nice route combinations where the outside receiver run an in behind the slot receiver, which created a lot of space for the receiver against the Jaguars scheme. The problem is that they were not able to stress the defence long, which is why they will be hoping that if nothing else Gordon will be able to make opposing defences stop doubling Rob Gronkowski and run deep routes.

However, if that helps solve the problems in the passing game the other side of the offence still struggled with a faintly anaemic run game that only managed eighty-two yards on twenty-four rushes for an average of 3.4 yards per carry, which would look even worse if you removed the twelve and fifteen yard runs from Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel as well as the ten yard scramble from Tom Brady. That’s cherry picking a little but there were not a lot of holes opened by the Patriots offensive line, and whilst the Jaguars defensive line is very good, it’s something to keep an eye on. Particularly as whilst the Jaguars only sacked Brady twice, they affected a number of throws with their rush and a lesser quarterback than Brady would not have got rid of the ball as quickly or as safely as Brady does.

Still, I wouldn’t be hitting the panic button yet and I will be interested to see if Gordon can be assimilated successfully. The Patriots are a team whose scheme changes from week to week, and so how things develop is definitely something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. Maybe that could be an offseason project!

2018 Week Three Picks

23 Sunday Sep 2018

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So after the Browns finally get a win our attention turns to the rest of the week three slate, and I can begin to panic that we’re nearly at the quarter pole of the season already! First the minor matter of the trivia question, which this week is:

‘Tell me, which is the newest of the NFL Stadiums (in the Lower-48) and when did it open?’

I believe this is the Mercedes-Benz stadium of the Atlanta Falcons that was opened last year and as seems traditional is hosting the Super Bowl this year.

‘I’ll be taking my first point of the year this week – the answer is the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, which opened in 2017!’

Saints @ Falcons (-3.5)

I am really interested in this game as two teams who haven’t looked fully together take each other on. The Atlanta Falcons recovered from their opening week loss to get a solid win against the Carolina Panthers but both their offence and defence are ranked twenty-third in the league by DVOA and another of their starters was put on IR for the season when their best offensive guard Andy Levitre tore a tricep. This week they host a Saints team whose offence is characteristically top ten but whose defence has taking a big step back from last year’s iteration that made a big jump. A team’s defence is often more volatile than their offence from year to year and those units who make a big jump often take a step back the following year. Still, given how the Falcons have played and the fact that the clear best unit in the game is the Saints offence I’m backing them to at least cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bills @ Vikings (-16.5)

So this is an easy game to predict but a slightly trickier one to call. The Buffalo Bills have got off to a horrid start to this season and look to be in a competition with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst team in the league. Following the logic from last week that I failed to remember, it is more likely for a team to go 2-1 or 1-2 than lose or win all their games but this week the Bills are travelling to Minnesota to face the Vikings in their newish stadium that has given them a distinct home advantage since it opened in 2016. The question is can the Vikings repeat the kind of win the Ravens had over the Bills in week one and given the chasm between the teams and where this game is being played I’m going to nervously back the Vikings to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bengals @ Panthers (-2.5)

Of course I am nervous about this game as the Cincinnati Bengals head back out on the road for the second of the three road games they have to start the season. This week they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team where Cam Newton seems to have taken to Norv Turner as his coordinator but the defence is an uncharacteristic twenty-fourth rank by DVOA. The worry for everyone I’ve heard talking about this game is that second year running back Joe Mixon is out having had a scope on his knee but I am starting to have faith in the rebuilt offensive line and what Bill Lazor is doing on offence. I think that the Bengals can keep this close but I’d feel a lot happier if the line was -3 rather than -2.5 yet I’m still going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Ravens (-4.5)

The Denver Broncos head out on the road for the first time this season and have the added difficulty of traveling to Baltimore to face a rested Ravens teams. The Broncos offence has been helped by the addition of Case Keenum and rookie running backs Royce Freeman and Phillip Freemand whilst their defence has done a job even if it is currently ranked sixteenth by DVOA. However, they have had the advantage of opening the season at highest stadium in the league whilst most teams get their legs under them after pre-season so this will be a real test of how far this team has come. The Raven’s defence is top five by DVOA and their offence looks to have more options amongst the skills players although I’m not sure the packages that have been put in for Lamar Jackson are really helping. The Broncos have eeked out two wins at home and could keep this one close but I’m not sure they will on the road but can the Ravens win by five. I’m once again going to grab the points as I don’t feel that strongly about these teams yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Packers @ Washington (+2.5)

The Green Bay Packers travel to Washington this week and frankly if I had the option to stay away I would as so much rides on the injured knee of Aaron Rodgers. He played well enough to win last week and the Packers offence looks good with him but the drop off if DeShone Kizer has to play is pretty startling. Their defence rank of twentieth by DVOA actually matches where they finished last season but we know that the big driver for the Packers is Rodgers. Washington fell back to earth with a bump last week as the Colts beat them in their home opener. I don’t trust Washington and I can’t hang my hat on the Packers given the injury to Rodgers.. This game feels like it could get ugly quickly, but having lost to the Colts I can’t quite bring myself to back Washington in this game although that would change if Rodgers can’t go.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Titans @ Jaguars (-7.5)

The Tennessee Titans managed to get a win last week with Blain Gabbert at quarterback but facing a Texans team with a rocky start is a very different prospect to going on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars and their fearsome defence. It looks like Gabbert will likely start again this week and this probably doesn’t bode well. I liked the aggressiveness the Jaguars’ offence played with last week and I would hope they keep that when Leonard Fournette returns from his hamstring injury and that they don’t automatically return to grinding out yards on the ground. I think this is a tough spot for the Titans even with some key Jaguar players being listed as questionable and that’s enough for me to lay this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Colts @ Eagles (-6.5)

So this is a really awkward game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have looked pretty good so far this season with new head coach seeming to do well with Andrew Luck and a couple of promising break outs on the defence. They travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who have a number of injuries but are getting Carson Wentz back from injury and he looked like the league MVP last year before he was lost. The Eagles defence is top ten by DVOA but the offence has struggled and the big question for me is will the skills players and the injuries at running back allow Wentz to look his best. The worry for me with this pick is the points and frankly there are too many unknowns with the Eagles for me to back them to win by seven even if I could regret this as I do think the Eagles are more likely to win this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

49ers @ Chiefs (-6.5)

One of the most impressive things about the Chiefs 2-0 start is that they have managed to get themselves ranked the top offence by DVOA playing on the road and this week’s home opener sees them welcome a San Francisco 49ers team who haven’t quite lived up to the promise many expected in the pre-season. The Chiefs have been a lot of fun to watch given that they’ve paired the top rated offence in the league with the worst ranked defence. The offence hasn’t gelled for the 49ers yet this season whilst the defence has improved. This is quite a lot of points for a team to cover who has the worst defence in the league by DVOA but the Chiefs have a good home advantage and the crowd is likely to hugely excited given the play of the offence and so I’m going to back the Chiefs to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Raiders @ Dolphins (-3.5)

The Oakland Raiders have got off to a tough start under Jon Gruden and despite improving last week are still yet to have a win and face a second road game as they travel to face an unbeaten Miami Dolphins team. I’m still not convinced by the Raiders as whilst the offence looked better last week, the defence is still struggling, is currently ranked twenty-seventh and frankly I’m not that convinced by Gruden as a coach. The Dolphins are a tricky team to gauge at home but I think Adam Gase is a good coach and it looks like he has more of the team he wants this season while Tannehill is currently managing the offence well. The extra half point should tempt me into making the opposite play here but the seventeen places between them by overall DVOA with Gruden on the road means I’ll be joining Dan in his Dolphins optimism this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Giants @ Texans (-5.5)

One of these 0-2 teams have to win and the line would indicate that one of these teams is a much more likely candidate. The DVOA rankings would agree with the Houston Texans ranked sixteen places higher and having a top ten defence but they also have problems at offensive tackles and a young quarterback. That said they have also been on the road for their first two games and welcome a Giants team whose offence hasn’t recovered despite getting Odell Beckham back from injury and adding the talented Saquon Barkley at running back as well as Nate Solder at left tackle. I think the Giants made a mistake by not drafting a quarterback as Eli Manning has not looked better so far and has been in decline for several seasons now. The line is what worries me though as this feels like too many points but I do not trust the Giants either and in the end that’s how I’m going to go.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chargers @ Rams (-6.5)

The battle of LA see the Chargers travel to the Coliseum to face a Rams team who have yet to let a team get closer than twenty points to them. The Chargers should manage that but having got back to winning ways last week against the Bills last week can they make this game competitive? They would stand a better chance if they had Joey Bosa but his foot injury looks to have him out for a little while yet and whilst their offence is ranked third by DVOA their defence is ranked seventeenth and the Rams are one of those teams who never let up on offence. I’d like to think this will be competitive and later in the season I think it would be but with where these teams are at right this second I think they Rams continue their strong start.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Chicago Bears got their first win last week as Khalil Mack continues to be a one man wrecking crew and Matt Nagy coaxes offensive production out of a talented group of skills players but a young quarterback in Mitchel Trubisky who seems to look good early with the scripted plays but whose instinct too often is to tuck the ball and run. This week however they travel to face a Cardinals team who have offered very little so far this season. They have struggled to move the ball on offence and their defence has not been much better, leaving them ranked thirty-first overall by DVOA. It seems strange to be laying this number of points on the road, but there still aren’t enough for me to back the Cardinals in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are 0-2 for what I would have said was the first time in a number of years, but they actually started the 2015 season also losing two road games. I’m not sure they’ll be able to finish 10-6 like they did then but they might be more competitive at CenturyLink Field than they have been on the road. The problem is that the offence has not looked good under new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and this has led Russell Wilson to a ranking of thirtieth in passing by DVOA. This week they host a Dallas Cowboys team who got their first win of the season last week but whose offence is not exactly looking great despite their ranking of eleventh by DVOA but that combined with a defensive ranking of thirteenth means they shouldn’t be overlooked. However, I find it hard to see them travelling well as Seattle is a notoriously difficult place to play and the Seahawks will be desperate to get back to winning ways. I have a lot more faith in Pete Carroll and so I’m backing the Seahawks to get back to winning ways rather than fall to 0-3.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Patriots @ Lions (+6.5)

It’s not exactly unusual for the New England Patriots to have a loss or two early in the season as Bill Belichick very much aims to have his team peaking at the end of the season and there is no shame in losing to the Jaguars these days. That said there must be some concern with the offence given that they have traded a fifth round pick to the Browns for Josh Gordon, who is expected to play in a limited fashion this week. The Patriots travel to Detroit to face a winless Lions team and their old defensive coordinator and new head coach Matt Patricia. The Lions looked better last week but still lost to the 49ers and so it’s hard to see a rookie head coach get his first win against Belichick, particularly as Belichick’s coaching tree has not exactly had a great track record outside of New England. This feels like a lot of points but I haven’t seen enough of the Lions to get the way they played in pre-season and week one out of my head so whilst I could regret this, I’m backing the Patriots to get back to winning ways as they seldom lose two games in a row (I didn’t find a time since 2013).

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Steelers @ Bucaneers (+1.5)

The Monday night game sees a winless Pittsburgh Steelers team travel to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team whose offence is rolling at second in the league by DVOA but whose defence is thirty-first so they are basically the Chiefs mark two. I absolutely did not see this coming but one of the big difference this year is that Todd Monken is calling plays rather than head coach Dirk Koetter and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been outstanding in deputising for the suspended Jameis Winston. I don’t know if they can keep this rolling but this looks to be a great game as the Steelers desperately need to get their season back on track. There is no sign of Le’Veon Bell ending his holdout and having disciplined Antonio Brown for not reporting on Monday the Steelers will hope that they can get their first win of the season. The question is whether they can heal the locker room and more importantly improve a defence that is currently ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. I’m not sure that this is the game to turn it round, but equally I find it hard to believe the Steelers will go into week four without a win and I can’t quite bring myself to pick it even if it definitely could happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 3

20 Thursday Sep 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

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So I had a disastrous time picking last week, clearly over compensating based on the week one results as I mentioned yesterday so I’ll have to refocus and see if I can catch Dan and his dad given that I’m currently bottom of the league.

Dan and I also failed to get the trivia answer again, and it was one of those where I’m really kicking myself now I’ve seen the answer. Remember, the full results are revealed in the weekly newsletter sent out Wednesday evening (UK time) and you can sign up here.

Gee: Week 2 4-12 Overall 15-17
Dan: Week 2 8-8 Overall 17-15

Jets @ Browns (-3.5)

So this is an actual competitive game between the Jets and Brown on Thursday night that I’m looking forward to seeing. The problem is that this makes picking the game more difficult as the Browns should have arguably won both the games they played this season whereas the Jets fell back to Earth last week after their dismantling of a poor Bills team in week one. So which way do I go on this one? I’m going to stick with my Thursday night rule of picking the home team unless there is a compelling reason not to and with Sam Darnold (who looked like a rookie last week) on the road in a short week against a Browns’ defence that is top ten by DVOA despite facing the Steelers and the Saints that doesn’t give me a reason to not to. The points worry me given that the Browns haven’t won since December 2016 but now is not the time for faint hearts and I have to get the points back somehow.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘I’m struggling to see anything other than a Jets win tonight. They may have looked a bit shaky against the Dolphins on Sunday but I think they have enough to see themselves to a W against the Browns’

Week 3 Trivia

‘Last week I want I asked what it is which connects the following teams:

Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Bengals and Bears.

Well there were some imaginative, if desperate, guesses which resulted in another score of Zero for both. It’s their choice to not use search engines which may make life harder but arguably this may not need Google to solve

Moving swiftly on and hopeful of getting airborne with a simpler one for this week.

Tell me, which is the newest of the NFL Stadiums (in the Lower-48) and when did it open?

Happy Hunting!’

Reacting to the Reaction

19 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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Obviously the most important thing in the NFL last week wasn’t my terrible week of picks, but I fell into a common enough trap for fans (and boy am I kicking myself as I even referred to it when making picks) so as the dust settles on the week let’s take a look at what we can tell.

The mistake I made was reading too much into the week one scores and I said it was more likely that a team be 1-1 than 2-0 or 0-2 but as I said last week, as far as I’m concerned fans of the Bills, Giants, Lions, Texans, Raiders, Cardinals and Seahawks may now officially panic.

The Seahawks have the excuse of being on the road for both games so far but their offence is really struggling, the defence is changing, and so far the bright spot may be the Australian punter who tried drop-kick kickoff (it was a bad week for kickers as Vikings and Browns fans will attest). Some team’s troubles you could see coming like the Bills and the Cardinals, and there was plenty of talk about the Texans offensive line before they underwhelmed against a Tennessee Titans team quarterbacked by Blaine Gabbert.

Another team who are in an unexpected position is the winless Pittsburgh Steelers who still have Le’Veon Bell holding out and had Antonio Brown tweet out trade me to find out regarding a post about how Ben Roethlisberger had made him and also wasn’t there on Monday. Teams can get off to a bad start but this is not the kind of things you usually see in Pittsburgh and it seems like cracks are beginning to show in that team.

The strains in New England offence are obviously being felt as the Patriots have traded for Josh Gordon after the Cleveland Browns finally lost patience with the troubled receiver, apparently after he hurt his hamstring in a photoshoot. I have no idea if the change of scene and the famously strict Patriot approach will help the player but addiction issues are not simple and on a human level I just hope he finds a way to make use of his talents and be in a good place.

Meanwhile the strain was too much for Vontae Davis who retired at half of the Bills heavy loss to the LA Chargers. It’s not something I’ve seen before and there has been those supporting his decision and very vocal players upset by an action they take as quitting. I actually have sympathy with both points of view as in a sport as dangerous as the NFL that requires a physical commitment if you don’t have it, you don’t belong out there but if you’ve dressed for the game don’t you owe it to your team to get to the end as there are only so many corners.

Looking for more positive stories, the Kansas City Chiefs continue to have the most dynamic offence in the league, unsurprisingly toping the offensive DVOA stat thanks to the explosive skills players they have assembled and Patrick Mahomes’s stellar talent, which has allowed Andy Reid to pretty much do what he wants with the office. Even less expected is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offence is ranked second by DVOA as Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to do his best to keep the quarterback job whilst Jameis Winston is suspended. In Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson the Buccaneers have one of the league’s better receiving duos if their quarterback can get them the ball and if you haven’t seen it, watch the clip of tight end OJ Howard running in a seventy-five yard touchdown. Tight end is one of those positions that due to the complexity it often takes time for young players to adjust, but he has amazing speed for the position and could be the next tight end threat to terrify defences.

The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Patriots without their Pro Bowl running back Leonard Fournette but it was the much maligned Blake Bortles who took advantage of an aggressive game plan to throw for over three hundred and fifty yards with four touchdowns to one interception. If they can maintain a balance of improved offence to go alongside their frightening defence then they could very well go one better than last season and make it to the Super Bowl.

In my drive to document all safeties we had our first of the season when the Kansas City Chiefs visited the Pittsburgh Steelers and it demonstrates why special teams and the phases working together wins football games. The Steelers Jordan Berry sent a fifty-nine yard punt to the Chiefs’ one yard line, pinning them by the goal line that after an aggressive pass play on first down, led to Kareem Hunt being tackled in the end zone. Maybe a small part of me would have liked to see a quarterback get sacked but this is the essence of football, a game of territory where even if you don’t directly score, you created an opportunity that results in two points and you getting the ball back in good field position.

Speaking of sack, and the final thing I will round up this week. I think there’s been a lot of entertaining football so far this season, even if not all of the prime time games have been the ones to demonstrate this, but whilst we have fun offences and potentially good young quarterbacks to enthuse about, there’s also the familiar issues surrounding the rule tweaks. Despite the worry ahead of the season being around the lowering the head hitting rules, these haven’t been called that much or caused that many issues and the two bad quarterback hits I have seen have been in open play when the quarterback slides and the hit to Cam Newton just looks bad. The actual problem call has been the new landing on the quarterback rules. This essentially cost the Packers a game when Clay Matthews was called for roughing the passer despite making a pretty much textbook form tackle of Kirk Cousins. Now I get why after Aaron Rodgers’ injury last season, and given how much the league is hurt whenever one of their marquee quarterbacks get injured, that the league doesn’t want their quarterbacks being driven into the ground by three hundred pound defensive linemen but there’s only so much a defender can do and if we’re going to start penalising tackling as opposed to dangerous play then we are going to see ridiculous scorelines. They won’t change the rule now and I wonder if even the instructions to the refs will change given that I suspect what the league is worried about is keeping the quarterbacks on the field. I hope I’m wrong.

So on to the next week where we’ll get to see if the Browns can finally get that win having been competitive twice, if the remaining undefeated teams can remain so, and I can keep testing my search of pro-football-reference.com that should make sure I don’t miss any safeties this season.

Woah Woah Woah Fitzmagic!

18 Tuesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

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Well, we’re two weeks into the season now, and I have to say it’s been pretty exciting so far! I’m not sure how much of that is to do with the Dolphins being at 2-0, but I’m trying to keep my feet on the ground in remembering that last time we went 2-0 (in 2013, if you’re asking) we ended up at 8-8. That being said, it’s always nice to pick up a win over the Jets… least of all so I can rub it in to my Jet supporting friend who is affectionately saved in my phone as ‘Flash Gordon’.

Anyway, I think we all got a new hero this week in the form of Ryan Fitzpatrick…

Image Credit – NFL.com

It’s brilliant to see someone enjoying their football (and the spotlight it’s bringing!), especially when you look at the journey he’s had around the league – he’s now at his 7th franchise since he joined the league in 2005. And as well as he’s played in the last 2 weeks, there’s a very real chance that in a couple of weeks time, he’ll find himself teeing up kicks and sitting on the bench once Jameis Winston returns. Personally, I think that would be very harsh, but you just know that once they get their big name back, even if he doesn’t go immediately back into the lineup, it won’t take much of a drop in form for Fitzpatrick to be replaced.

Heading over to the AFC, one of the strangest pieces of news coming out of the league this weekend was the retirement of Bills cornerback Vontae Davis. Now, that isn’t all that strange a story in itself, but the fact that it came at Half Time in their game against the Chargers that caused it to be such a talking point. The 2x Pro Bowler says that reality hit him hard during the first half and as a result, he informed his coaches of his decision, and quietly left the stadium.

How does everyone feel about that? Personally, I’m on the side of his team mates who have said that they feel it was a ‘disrespectful’ move – for me, the least he could have done was to either see out the game, or tell his coaches about his decision, but still head out to the sidelines to be part of the team to see things through. That being said, we don’t know how the conversation went and what was decided above his head. It does go to show though how much of a mess they’re in in Buffalo – I don’t think anyone thought they’d have a season up to the same level as last year, but we certainly didn’t expect them to look this bad!

Image Credit – tmz.com

Elsewhere, the Patriots have a new target for Tom Brady in the form of former Brown Josh Gordon. In what was a bit of an unexpected move, Cleveland announced on Saturday that they were going to be cutting Gordon on Monday, and within hours of that cut taking place, he was signing for Bill Belichick’s crew. I’m not sure how I feel about this. With all of the personal problems that he’s faced over the last few years, it’s difficult not to feel his head perhaps wasn’t ‘in it’ in Cleveland, but that throws up its own questions over his commitment to New England – although I’m sure they discussed that at length with him before signing. As the story goes, he turned up to training late last week, and injured a hamstring while taking part in a photo-shoot. I think we all want to know that he’s well in himself, and hopefully this fresh start works out well for him.

Moving onto matters closer to home, our Fantasy team did pretty poorly this week. I struggled to get a decent replacement Running Back for Marshawn Lynch who looked like he was going to be out injured, so while I left him on the bench, he ended up not only playing but putting up some decent numbers too – none of which I benefited from of course, so we’re now 0-2!

And there’s been some exciting developments with the LA Rams Bet…

Cash out has finally moved up from the initial £5 I put on, and they’re now second favourites on bet365 to win the ‘Bowl this year! Early days yet, I know…!

Oh, and I’ve just realised that I now have this platform to brag about my picking success which I didn’t have last year! I very much doubt he’ll mention it [A slur on my character that I have taken note of – Ed.] but Gee is now bottom of the Pigskin Pickem table. That being said, my Dad is beating us both not only in Trivia (Gee and I are both 0-2 after this week!) but he’s also top of Pick’em, which I must say, he is loving.

So it’s over to you – Which games are you looking forward to this week? How do you think Josh Gordon will fit in in Foxborough? Let’s have a chat on Twitter!

Until next time…

@TWFDan