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~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Tag Archives: Week 3 Picks

2020 Week Three Picks

27 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Covid-19, Dallas Cowboys, Drew Brees, Green Bay Packers, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Michael Thomas, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Russel Wilson, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Week 3 Picks

It’s been an tough week, but Dan will be cheered a little by the Dolphins getting their first win of the season. I know that one team will leave the match of the Bengals and Eagles with their first win of the season, but I wouldn’t like to say which. In theory there should be more 1-2 or 2-1 teams that winless or lossless teams, but I’m not sure how easy that will be to pick this week once the lines are in place.

My other concern is that we have our first positive Covid-19 test of a player since the season started, and now that games have been for long enough to be through the incubation period of the virus we shall see truly how the Covid protols hold up.

Early Games:

I think there are two stand out games in the early slate of games, although there is still plenty of interest in all games.

The Buffalo Bills host the LA Rams, which is a fascinating matchup of the Sean McVay’s rejuvenated Rams’ offence against a the Bills defense who have slipped out of the top ten by DVOA so far this season, but should provide an interesting matchup. I’m also curious to see if Josh Allen can continue his streak of throwing for over three hundred yards thanks to off-season addition of Stefon Diggs and a possible further improvement in the young quarterback’s play. I’m not looking forward to picking the game but I definitely think this is one to watch.

The other game that leaps out of the early slate is the 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders travelling to take on the New England Patriots. The Raiders offence looks promising, but as I said in my preview, the Raiders won’t be able to take advantage of this development if their defense doesn’t improve markedly and whilst a ranking of thirtieth by DVOA is technically an improvement on last season, it won’t be enough for them to be serious contenders. I think this is where they get a dose of reality as the New England Patriots may only just be top ten in overall DVOA but boy Cam Newton looked good last week in their close loss to the Seahawks. I trust Belichick and his staff to make a good enough defense by mid-season for them to be competitive and I think both teams leave this game with a 2-1 record.

Other things of interest:

  • I am curious to see if the Atlanta Falcons get their season turned around and it feels to me more likely that the Falcons will get their first win than both team’s current streak continues. That said, the Bears top ten defense might contain the Falcons offence, whilst the questions around Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will not be answered by his performance against the Falcons’s twenty-eighth ranked defense.
  • The Eagles may well get their first win this season, but asking them to win by a clear touchdown against a team that has kept both games within a touchdown as Joe Burrow impresses early.
  • The Browns got a good win last week, but this is another line where I’m not sure it’s really justified. The Washington Football Team are not good, but whilst I only saw a quarter of the Cardinal’s offence going against the Football Team’s defense, I was impressed with what I saw from the Cardinals and Washington’s defence is ranked first by DVOA. I was also impressed by what the Browns did last week, but I think the Browns are going to have to prove it to me before I start picking them with this kind of line.
  • This might be a trap, but with a defense that is ranked twentieth by DVOA and an offence that seems to have real problems I am really not sure that the Vikings can turn it round. The Titans may have been in two close games, but they have won them both and I have a feeling they will run out close winners. However, there are both numbers and record reasons to think that the Vikings might do something in this game, if nothing else because the question is are the Titans really good enough to start the season 3-0. I’m really not sure.
  • The 49ers are having all kinds of injury problems and still are favourites to beat the New York Giants. Even though they will be missing Saquon Barkley I like the Giants to keep this one closer than five points at home.
  • I have a feeling the Texans might just be bad this season. The offence is struggling without DeAndre Hopkins and the defence hasn’t inspired. I think the depth the roster has lost through trading away draft picks is hurting this team and that GM Bill O’Brien has let down coach Bill O’Brien. It’s not impossible that the Steelers will have a let down this game, but at home I like them to win and cover a line where the half point scares, except the consensus is another half point higher. I would stay away from this game if I could but I can’t.

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Rams @ Bills (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Bengals @ Eagles (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Washington @ Browns (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Titans @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Raiders @ Patriots (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Late Games:

There’s several interest contests in the late games this Sunday, but the pick has to the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Seattle Seahawks. This is going to see two teams powered by their offence do battle and it could well be this game is decided by who has the ball last. The interesting thing is that the disparity between offence and defense is actually biggest for the Seahawks, but Russel Wilson is playing so well that I’m confident that this will be a great game, but very possibly another close one for the Cowboys and I very much doubt that the best special teams in the league by DVOA through week two will gift them anything on special teams like the Falcons did last Sunday.

Notes from the other late games:

  • The Jests are such a mess that this line is massive, and is actually higher by consensus, which means there could be value in picking the Colts. I’m really not sure where to go in this game as although I expect the Colts to win, are they going to be dominant for a second week in a row?
  • The Panthers are still looking for their first win of the season, but with the Chargers giving the Chiefs a tough game last week despite being forced last minute to start rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. However, the injuries are still piling up for the Chargers again so whilst I like them to win this game, I think the Panthers could well keep this one close.
  • The Bucs are my survivor pick of the week, based on the injuries that the Broncos currently have and chasm between them by overall DVOA. The Broncos have played tougher than I expected, but wile I think the Bucs will win this game the line worries me. I want to stay away but as I can’t I’m going to grab the points at one of the few places where there is still a definite home field advantage, or at least early in the season.
  • I’ve seen a quarter of one game of the Cardinals offence so I really can’t draw any firm conclusions, but I did lke what I saw and it does feel like the Cardinals have enough to beat a Lions team who seem to be the same again under Matt Patricia. I will be curious to see if the Lions can be more competitive this week.

Jets @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Panthers @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Broncos (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Cardinals (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ Saints (-3.5)

I think I have to say that I was wrong about the Packers. I thought they were prime candidates for regression after last season and the lack of receivers they added to the offence, but they have come out and scored forty points each week and looked dominant against the Lions in week two. There are questions surrounding the Saints at the moment and Drew Brees in particular. This could well be the beginning of the end for the forty-one year old quarterback, but any offence is going to miss a piece as important as Michael Thomas is to the Saints and so whilst I don’t think it is time for them to panic yet, the extra half point has me leaning the other way as without the noise of their home fans I expect the Saints to struggle or possibly even lose to the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Monday Night Football

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5)

This might be the matchup of the regular season yet alone the week. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bit of scare last week against the Chargers, but like most good teams found a way to win and certainly a team with Patrick Mahomes always has a chance. However, the Baltimore Ravens are top five by DVOA in all three phases of the game and their offence is coming off a week that saw them put up thirty-three points against the number one ranked defence in the league by DVOA. I also think that the Ravens’ strength in running the ball matches up well with the Chiefs’ defensive liability against the run (twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA) so whilst the Chiefs offence might well be explosive enough to keep them in the contest, I fancy the Ravens to win this one, and could do so well.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Three Picks

22 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 3 Picks

I am really up against the clock this week thanks to life so this is going to be a by the seat of my pants week, but first the trivia question:

‘Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?’

I’m really struggling on this one, so I’m going to take a wild stab at the oldest running back I can remember for the Ravens, which is Jamal Lewis, but I’m not at all sure this is early enough.

As for a theme, all I can think of is expansion teams with the Dolphins and Ravens in the last two weeks and the moving Cardinals from week one, but I’m not sure it is true.

‘Tough one again but I’m basically thinking back to who were the big running backs when I first started playing Madden games! I’m not 100% sure on this because I’m concerned I’ve got my timelines wrong, but I THINK Priest Holmes was their RB at the time – went on to be a bit legendary for Kansas City, but I think 1998 was before he moved there, so that’s my guess!

In terms of the theme, I’m thinking it could be people/teams who went on to do bigger and better things in a different places… probably wrong but it’s a guess!’

Falcons @ Colts (-2.5)

I don’t like this line at all, but I don’t trust the Falcons yet and the Colts have a solid team if their kicker could just find his form.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Bengals @ Bills (-6.5)

Will the real Bengals please stand up? The Bills have beaten two poor teams and this is their home opener, I’m going to grab the points and hope the Bengals prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Dolphins @ Cowboys (-21.5)

I can’t believe I’m doing this but with a young quarterback on the road against this team I’m going to grab the Cowboys as the #FishTank sets new records for awful football.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Broncos @ Packers (-7.5)

The Broncos have not looked good and the Packers have failed to convince but this line is a little too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Lions @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Lions have not been good but are undefeated and play a Philadelphia team struggling with injury and whilst I feel the Eagles win, this is too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Ravens @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Game of the day that pits two of the most exciting offences of the year against each other and we get to see how good the Ravens defence is. I could regret this given the Arrowhead home field advantage but again too many points for me,

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Raiders @ Vikings (-7.5)

The Vikings are playing ball control offence and relying on their defence but are going against a Raiders team who have been competitive and better teams than the Raiders have had the Chiefs go off against them so I think this might be close than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Jets @ Patriots (-22.5)

This line somehow is even larger than the Dolphins, but with the Jets on the road with a practice squad quarterback starting I’m going to ignore the number and hope that Patriots do the impossible, which has happened frighteningly often this decade.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Giants @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

I like the Buccaneers to win this game as Todd Bowles has done okay with the defence, they are rested and I like Bruce Arians but this is too many points, even if they are welcoming a poor Giants team starting Daniel Jones in his first game.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Panthers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I HATE this line as with Cam Newton sitting who knows what the Panthers will do whilst the Cardinals have looked frisky losers so far but getting points at home I am going grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Cardinals

Saints @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Saints are starting Teddy Bridgewater on the road in Seattle but with a week to prepare I’m sure Sean Payton can make them competitive but the Seahawks are good and I think they will run out winner. However, I’m not brave enough to pick them to win by six

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Steelers @ 49ers (-6.5)

The Steelers are clearly confident in Mason Rudolph given that they traded away a first-round draft pick for a defensive back last week, but it could be that the 49ers are genuinely good or at least competitive. I don’t like this line at all so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Texans @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers have injuries mounting up but it’s hard to have much faith in the Texans yet both of their games have been decided by less that a field goal so let’s see if the trend continues.

Gee’s Pick:        Texans
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Rams @ Browns (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns have not convinced at all this season, whilst the Rams have won without firing on all cylinders so I’m making this pick based entirely on my faith in the coaching staffs, despite that failing me on Thursday night.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Bears @ Washington (+4.5)

This is not exactly an exciting Monday night game in Washington who have failed to inspire whilst the Bears have failed to get a passing touchdown out of Mitchell Trubisky. This could be the team to get a breakout performance and the Bears defence is formidable, but on the results so far I’m not brave enough to call a Bears win by five.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Bears

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week 3

19 Thursday Sep 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Competition Thursday, NFL, Picks Competition, Week 3 Picks

The week two games were not kind to me in terms of picks or results, and Dan’s Dad has returned to the top of the group to take a slender lead, so here are the numbers ahead of tonight’s game and the trivia question.

Dan’s Dad:       Week    8-8                  Overall   17-15
Gee:                Week    6-10                Overall   16-16
Dan:                Week    7-9                  Overall   15-17

Titans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

Both teams are coming off close losses in week two with the Jaguars defence keeping them in the hunt during rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew’s first start but ultimately losing and the Tennessee Titans lost to the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans’ loss actually could have been by more if the Colts’ Adam Vinatieri hadn’t had a horrible kicking game and this puts me in a conundrum. The Titans got a really strong win week one and are comfortably the better team in DVOA as well as ranking better in offence and defence. The problem is that their offence is struggling, in part because Marcus Mariotta’s reluctance to throw the ball down field and they are on the road.

My Thursday night rule didn’t help me at all last week and I’m wondering if a regular starting quarterback (albeit a troubled one) is enough of an advantage when combined with a better coached team to get the two point win needed to cover. It’s that final point that swayed me, for all that the talk of trades for Jalen Ramsey and dischord on the side lines might be slightly over played – but I’m going to back the more consistent team given they only need a field goal to win.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Week 3 Trivia

‘Well week 2 is in the can, normal service has been restored in the Picks and the trivia braces itself for a week in which the theme that is running may be identified.

But you will remember that I asked:

On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?

Both Gee and Dan made valid attempts and I like Gee rightly identifying that it could be an expansion team. Dan went for a ‘hunting’ option and picked the Bears. However, Gee forgets that I am well trained in the art of the double-bluff so maybe I will become Dan’s Devious Dad when I tell you that it was Don Schula’s Dolphins who actually won a Monday night game on November 30.

So that means no points on either side this week. In addition, the theme was also left on the shelf – maybe this week!

Right, onto Week 3 the question is:

Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?

Let’s see what that brings – again there are 2 points on offer for this one.’

2018 Week Three Picks

23 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 3 Picks

So after the Browns finally get a win our attention turns to the rest of the week three slate, and I can begin to panic that we’re nearly at the quarter pole of the season already! First the minor matter of the trivia question, which this week is:

‘Tell me, which is the newest of the NFL Stadiums (in the Lower-48) and when did it open?’

I believe this is the Mercedes-Benz stadium of the Atlanta Falcons that was opened last year and as seems traditional is hosting the Super Bowl this year.

‘I’ll be taking my first point of the year this week – the answer is the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, which opened in 2017!’

Saints @ Falcons (-3.5)

I am really interested in this game as two teams who haven’t looked fully together take each other on. The Atlanta Falcons recovered from their opening week loss to get a solid win against the Carolina Panthers but both their offence and defence are ranked twenty-third in the league by DVOA and another of their starters was put on IR for the season when their best offensive guard Andy Levitre tore a tricep. This week they host a Saints team whose offence is characteristically top ten but whose defence has taking a big step back from last year’s iteration that made a big jump. A team’s defence is often more volatile than their offence from year to year and those units who make a big jump often take a step back the following year. Still, given how the Falcons have played and the fact that the clear best unit in the game is the Saints offence I’m backing them to at least cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bills @ Vikings (-16.5)

So this is an easy game to predict but a slightly trickier one to call. The Buffalo Bills have got off to a horrid start to this season and look to be in a competition with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst team in the league. Following the logic from last week that I failed to remember, it is more likely for a team to go 2-1 or 1-2 than lose or win all their games but this week the Bills are travelling to Minnesota to face the Vikings in their newish stadium that has given them a distinct home advantage since it opened in 2016. The question is can the Vikings repeat the kind of win the Ravens had over the Bills in week one and given the chasm between the teams and where this game is being played I’m going to nervously back the Vikings to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bengals @ Panthers (-2.5)

Of course I am nervous about this game as the Cincinnati Bengals head back out on the road for the second of the three road games they have to start the season. This week they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team where Cam Newton seems to have taken to Norv Turner as his coordinator but the defence is an uncharacteristic twenty-fourth rank by DVOA. The worry for everyone I’ve heard talking about this game is that second year running back Joe Mixon is out having had a scope on his knee but I am starting to have faith in the rebuilt offensive line and what Bill Lazor is doing on offence. I think that the Bengals can keep this close but I’d feel a lot happier if the line was -3 rather than -2.5 yet I’m still going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Ravens (-4.5)

The Denver Broncos head out on the road for the first time this season and have the added difficulty of traveling to Baltimore to face a rested Ravens teams. The Broncos offence has been helped by the addition of Case Keenum and rookie running backs Royce Freeman and Phillip Freemand whilst their defence has done a job even if it is currently ranked sixteenth by DVOA. However, they have had the advantage of opening the season at highest stadium in the league whilst most teams get their legs under them after pre-season so this will be a real test of how far this team has come. The Raven’s defence is top five by DVOA and their offence looks to have more options amongst the skills players although I’m not sure the packages that have been put in for Lamar Jackson are really helping. The Broncos have eeked out two wins at home and could keep this one close but I’m not sure they will on the road but can the Ravens win by five. I’m once again going to grab the points as I don’t feel that strongly about these teams yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Packers @ Washington (+2.5)

The Green Bay Packers travel to Washington this week and frankly if I had the option to stay away I would as so much rides on the injured knee of Aaron Rodgers. He played well enough to win last week and the Packers offence looks good with him but the drop off if DeShone Kizer has to play is pretty startling. Their defence rank of twentieth by DVOA actually matches where they finished last season but we know that the big driver for the Packers is Rodgers. Washington fell back to earth with a bump last week as the Colts beat them in their home opener. I don’t trust Washington and I can’t hang my hat on the Packers given the injury to Rodgers.. This game feels like it could get ugly quickly, but having lost to the Colts I can’t quite bring myself to back Washington in this game although that would change if Rodgers can’t go.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Titans @ Jaguars (-7.5)

The Tennessee Titans managed to get a win last week with Blain Gabbert at quarterback but facing a Texans team with a rocky start is a very different prospect to going on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars and their fearsome defence. It looks like Gabbert will likely start again this week and this probably doesn’t bode well. I liked the aggressiveness the Jaguars’ offence played with last week and I would hope they keep that when Leonard Fournette returns from his hamstring injury and that they don’t automatically return to grinding out yards on the ground. I think this is a tough spot for the Titans even with some key Jaguar players being listed as questionable and that’s enough for me to lay this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Colts @ Eagles (-6.5)

So this is a really awkward game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have looked pretty good so far this season with new head coach seeming to do well with Andrew Luck and a couple of promising break outs on the defence. They travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who have a number of injuries but are getting Carson Wentz back from injury and he looked like the league MVP last year before he was lost. The Eagles defence is top ten by DVOA but the offence has struggled and the big question for me is will the skills players and the injuries at running back allow Wentz to look his best. The worry for me with this pick is the points and frankly there are too many unknowns with the Eagles for me to back them to win by seven even if I could regret this as I do think the Eagles are more likely to win this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

49ers @ Chiefs (-6.5)

One of the most impressive things about the Chiefs 2-0 start is that they have managed to get themselves ranked the top offence by DVOA playing on the road and this week’s home opener sees them welcome a San Francisco 49ers team who haven’t quite lived up to the promise many expected in the pre-season. The Chiefs have been a lot of fun to watch given that they’ve paired the top rated offence in the league with the worst ranked defence. The offence hasn’t gelled for the 49ers yet this season whilst the defence has improved. This is quite a lot of points for a team to cover who has the worst defence in the league by DVOA but the Chiefs have a good home advantage and the crowd is likely to hugely excited given the play of the offence and so I’m going to back the Chiefs to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Raiders @ Dolphins (-3.5)

The Oakland Raiders have got off to a tough start under Jon Gruden and despite improving last week are still yet to have a win and face a second road game as they travel to face an unbeaten Miami Dolphins team. I’m still not convinced by the Raiders as whilst the offence looked better last week, the defence is still struggling, is currently ranked twenty-seventh and frankly I’m not that convinced by Gruden as a coach. The Dolphins are a tricky team to gauge at home but I think Adam Gase is a good coach and it looks like he has more of the team he wants this season while Tannehill is currently managing the offence well. The extra half point should tempt me into making the opposite play here but the seventeen places between them by overall DVOA with Gruden on the road means I’ll be joining Dan in his Dolphins optimism this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Giants @ Texans (-5.5)

One of these 0-2 teams have to win and the line would indicate that one of these teams is a much more likely candidate. The DVOA rankings would agree with the Houston Texans ranked sixteen places higher and having a top ten defence but they also have problems at offensive tackles and a young quarterback. That said they have also been on the road for their first two games and welcome a Giants team whose offence hasn’t recovered despite getting Odell Beckham back from injury and adding the talented Saquon Barkley at running back as well as Nate Solder at left tackle. I think the Giants made a mistake by not drafting a quarterback as Eli Manning has not looked better so far and has been in decline for several seasons now. The line is what worries me though as this feels like too many points but I do not trust the Giants either and in the end that’s how I’m going to go.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chargers @ Rams (-6.5)

The battle of LA see the Chargers travel to the Coliseum to face a Rams team who have yet to let a team get closer than twenty points to them. The Chargers should manage that but having got back to winning ways last week against the Bills last week can they make this game competitive? They would stand a better chance if they had Joey Bosa but his foot injury looks to have him out for a little while yet and whilst their offence is ranked third by DVOA their defence is ranked seventeenth and the Rams are one of those teams who never let up on offence. I’d like to think this will be competitive and later in the season I think it would be but with where these teams are at right this second I think they Rams continue their strong start.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Chicago Bears got their first win last week as Khalil Mack continues to be a one man wrecking crew and Matt Nagy coaxes offensive production out of a talented group of skills players but a young quarterback in Mitchel Trubisky who seems to look good early with the scripted plays but whose instinct too often is to tuck the ball and run. This week however they travel to face a Cardinals team who have offered very little so far this season. They have struggled to move the ball on offence and their defence has not been much better, leaving them ranked thirty-first overall by DVOA. It seems strange to be laying this number of points on the road, but there still aren’t enough for me to back the Cardinals in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are 0-2 for what I would have said was the first time in a number of years, but they actually started the 2015 season also losing two road games. I’m not sure they’ll be able to finish 10-6 like they did then but they might be more competitive at CenturyLink Field than they have been on the road. The problem is that the offence has not looked good under new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and this has led Russell Wilson to a ranking of thirtieth in passing by DVOA. This week they host a Dallas Cowboys team who got their first win of the season last week but whose offence is not exactly looking great despite their ranking of eleventh by DVOA but that combined with a defensive ranking of thirteenth means they shouldn’t be overlooked. However, I find it hard to see them travelling well as Seattle is a notoriously difficult place to play and the Seahawks will be desperate to get back to winning ways. I have a lot more faith in Pete Carroll and so I’m backing the Seahawks to get back to winning ways rather than fall to 0-3.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Patriots @ Lions (+6.5)

It’s not exactly unusual for the New England Patriots to have a loss or two early in the season as Bill Belichick very much aims to have his team peaking at the end of the season and there is no shame in losing to the Jaguars these days. That said there must be some concern with the offence given that they have traded a fifth round pick to the Browns for Josh Gordon, who is expected to play in a limited fashion this week. The Patriots travel to Detroit to face a winless Lions team and their old defensive coordinator and new head coach Matt Patricia. The Lions looked better last week but still lost to the 49ers and so it’s hard to see a rookie head coach get his first win against Belichick, particularly as Belichick’s coaching tree has not exactly had a great track record outside of New England. This feels like a lot of points but I haven’t seen enough of the Lions to get the way they played in pre-season and week one out of my head so whilst I could regret this, I’m backing the Patriots to get back to winning ways as they seldom lose two games in a row (I didn’t find a time since 2013).

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Steelers @ Bucaneers (+1.5)

The Monday night game sees a winless Pittsburgh Steelers team travel to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team whose offence is rolling at second in the league by DVOA but whose defence is thirty-first so they are basically the Chiefs mark two. I absolutely did not see this coming but one of the big difference this year is that Todd Monken is calling plays rather than head coach Dirk Koetter and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been outstanding in deputising for the suspended Jameis Winston. I don’t know if they can keep this rolling but this looks to be a great game as the Steelers desperately need to get their season back on track. There is no sign of Le’Veon Bell ending his holdout and having disciplined Antonio Brown for not reporting on Monday the Steelers will hope that they can get their first win of the season. The question is whether they can heal the locker room and more importantly improve a defence that is currently ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. I’m not sure that this is the game to turn it round, but equally I find it hard to believe the Steelers will go into week four without a win and I can’t quite bring myself to pick it even if it definitely could happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Week 3 Picks

24 Sunday Sep 2017

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Ravens @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The weekend’s games start with the first London game, where the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Baltimore Ravens at Wembley, and it is a tricky game for me to pick this week. The Jaguars followed up their opening game win with a loss to the Tennessee Titans, and the problems with having such a one dimensional offence showed themselves, particularly having lost receiver Allen Robinson for the season to an ACL injury. The problem for me is that the Raven also had a big loss when guard Marshal Yonder was lost for the season with an ankle fracture. The Raven’s offensive balance is why they’ve looked better this year and losing one of the best guards could really hurt their ability to run the ball.

In the last two seasons the Jaguars have won their London game, and with that bit more practice at travelling I’m not saying they will win, but I do feel with two good defences this could be a closer game than you might first think and I’m picking the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Falcons @ Lions (+2.5)

This should be a cracking game, with two unbeaten teams meeting. The Atlanta Falcons offence looked better in their home opener last week, and they travel to face a Detroit Lions team who keep finding a way to win. I don’t have a strong lean either way in this one, but in a close game if I’m getting points as a home team then I am going to grab them and look forward to watching the game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Broncos @ Bills (+3.5)

This looks to be a surprisingly good game despite the Buffalo Bills offseason rebuilding, as it looks like new head coach Sean McDermott has got his team playing for him and the defence looks good already. I have also been impressed with the Denver Broncos’ start to the season, but in what could be a closer game than you might expect I’m again going to grab points for a home team.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Steelers @ Bears (+7.5)

I want to pick the Chicago Bears in this one. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a nasty habit of playing down to their opponents and the Bears defence has looked promising at times, but the Steelers’ offence looks like it is coming together and I just think they have too much for the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Browns @ Colts (+0.5)

I don’t remember the last time the Cleveland Browns were favoured in a game, yet alone on the road, but the Indianapolis Colts gave a more credible effort last week and could have beaten the Arizona Cardinals. The Browns still haven’t got Myles Garrett to play a regular season game, whilst losing receiver Corey Coleman to broken hand for the second season in a row hurts. I’m really not sure where to go in this one, but I’ll stick to my faith in the Browns and their coach for now, but I am curious about how this game will play out.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Dolphins @ Jets (+6.5)

The Miami Dolphins got off to a winning start, and this week and face a New York Jets team who have shown very little of anything. We thought going into the season that the Jets were going to be bad, but it is still shocking to see how uncompetitive they have been, and I don’t see anything here to stop me from picking the Dolphins to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Vikings (-2.5)

In a league where increasingly home field advantage is being reduced, the Minnesota Vikings seem to have bucked the trend with their noisy new stadium. Add to this a really good defence and this should be a decided advantage, but with quarterback Sam Bradford looking like he will miss a second week due to a knee problem I will back the Tampa Buccaneers on the road. Their defence looks equally scary, and with young quarterback Jameis Winston continuing his development, I feel like the Vikings would need Bradford to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Texans @ Patriots (-13.5)

The New England Patriots beat the Houston Texans 27-0 last season whilst starting Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Patriots got back on track with an easy win last week, although they did pick up more injuries top pass catchers. However, the Texans did not exactly look great against the Bengals last week and despite being slightly nervous about the line, I think the Patriots will cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Saints @ Panthers (-6.5)

The Carolina Panthers have needed their defence to play as well as it has because their offence has not looked good so far this season. The New Orleans Saints defence might be just what the doctor ordered, especially with them rotating through defensive linemen trying to find something that works, but the loss of Cam Newton’s safest receiver in tight end Greg Olson could really hurt them. I’m not sure that the Saints will win, especially on the road, but I think this could be a closer game than this line suggest. I’m nervously backing the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Giants @ Eagles (-5.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles have got off to a solid start to the season, and welcome a New York Giants team who have been struggling on offence. It’s not just that Odell Beckham has been fighting an ankle injury, but the offensive line has been dire in pass protection and the tackles haven’t been given scheme help. It is not necessarily surprising that the Giants’ defence has taken a bit of a step back from last year’s improvement, but despite it being more likely for a team to go 1-2 rather than 0-3, I see nothing in this game that would give a Giants’ fan hope. I think right now the Eagles are a better a team, watch this game come back to bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Seahawks @ Titans (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks defence continues to be really good, but their offensive line also continues to make Russell Wilson run for his life. The Tennessee Titans have a pair of bookend tackles that should allow their offense to function despite the Seahawks’ scary front seven, and I fancy them to get the win at home against a Seahawks team who are designed to peak later in the season.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Bengals  @ Packers (-9.5)

The Green Bay Packers struggled last week against the Atlanta Falcons missing both their starting tackles on offense, and with their defence looking more fragile. This week they welcome a struggling Cincinnati Bengals team who have yet to score a touchdown, which is why they have a new offensive co-ordinator. I don’t hold out much hope of a dramatic turn around, but given the strength of the Bengal’s defence this year, and that it looks like the Packer’s o-line could still be in flux, I do fancy the Bengals to cover this big line even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3.5)

The LA Chargers have so far managed to lose two close games, but this week they welcome a Kansas City Chiefs team who have started the year on fire. The Chargers have not exactly built a big following in LA, and this game feels like it will only go one way. You never know until the game is played, but with the Chiefs explosive offence and stout defence I don’t think they will have a problem covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Washington (+3.5)

So Jay Gruden did the unexpected and kept his Washington team running the football last week as they travelled to LA and beat the Rams. However, the Oakland Raiders are a totally different proposition having picked up from last year and look fearsome. The points do give me a slight pause, but the Raiders feel like they are on a roll and I don’t think Washington have the offence to keep up.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Cowboys @ Cardinals (+3.5)

This week’s games are closed out on Monday night by a struggling Arizona Cardinals team hosting the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys got shut down last week in Denver, with the passing game not really working and Ezekiel Elliot getting completely stuffed in the running game. This week they travel to Arizona, who have their own running problems with running back David Johnson out with a wrist injury. The Cowboys are not a team that inspire much confidence in me, but neither are the Cardinals at the moment, and as reluctant as I am to back the Cowboys, if you’re a team who struggles to beat the Colts then I can’t back you to cover this line against the Cowboys who will be looking to bounce back from a tough loss.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Week 3 Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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I feel like the real trick with this week’s picks is not to over react and have all the teams who are either 2-0 or 0-2 continuing their winning or losing streak, as the more common result is likely to be a first win or loss, but whether I stick to that as I go through each game individually remains to be seen.

Cardinals @ Bills(+4.5)

The first game already shows the problem with my opening paragraph as the Bill have simply been bad, and given the difficulties they had with pass defence, I can’t see them being effective at slowing down the Cardinals offence and Bruce Arian’s vertical attack, nor being able to move the ball consistently on an opportunistic defence and so I see this as being a fairly straight forward win for the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Broncos @ Bengals (-2.5)

The season doesn’t get any easier for the Bengals as their first home game of the season sees them welcome the Super Bowl champions. That said, whilst the Broncos defence has been impressive, I’m not sure the Broncos have seen a defence of the standard of the Bengals, and with an inexperienced Trevor Siemian under centre on the road I’m backing the Bengals to get back to a winning record.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5)

Things just keep going from bad to worse for the Browns, and apart from the injuries to their quarterbacks, promising rookie receiver Cory Coleman broke his hand in practice, proving yet again that the Browns can’t have nice things. This line is somewhat eye watering, but with the Dolphins at the home and having mounted a comeback in the second half against the Patriots, I think that not only are they the more likely to get the first win for either team, but that they may well cover this spread as well.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This game gives me real pause, as all is not well with the Packers so far, with similar problems surfacing on offence as they faced last year. However, I think in their opening game at Lambeau Field they will get back to winning ways, but this is a lot of points. The injuries in the Lions’ defence worry me and although their offence has looked good so far this year, I am not sure about them going against a Packers defence that has impressed me despite the problems against the pass. I keep changing my mind on this one, but I think it could be a get right game for the Packers that in the end gets them the cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Raiders @ Titans (-1.5)

The Raiders are still a very up and down team with their offence currently ranked number one in the NFL by DVOA and the defence ranked thirty-second. They are travelling to a Titans team who got an unlikely win against a Lions team who had three touchdowns waved off for penalties. I’m not sold on the Titans as being good, but the Raiders don’t travel well either. I’m really not sure which way to go, but with head coach Jack Del Rio taking a bigger hand in the defence this week I’m nervously backing the Raiders on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (-6.5)

I think that the Panthers will run out winners in this game, but given how ineffective Adrian Peterson had been this season, I’m not sure how badly his loss will hurt a new look Vikings offence who still need to fix their offensive line issues. The Panthers defence are not really a team to do this against, but the Vikings defence will likely keep them in the game and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Washington @ Giants (-4.5)

I’m sort of going against my plan of picking here, but DC Grudens are not functioning well on offence, with quarterback Kirk Cousins playing inconsistently, and couple this with a defence that is not playing that well and I don’t see a lot of hope. The Giants may have built their defence through free agency, but it seems to be working and with a passing attack that seems a lot more balanced than last year, I think Eli Manning has the options to get the ball to receivers no matter what is going on between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Ravens @ Jaguars (+0.5)

The Ravens have got off to a good start to the season, but are quietly not a great road team under John Harbaugh who gave up twenty points to the Browns last week. They face a desperate Jaguars team down in Jacksonville, who will already be aware of how seldom 0-2 teams get to the playoffs and so if they are to rescue their season they have to win this game, even if it is early in the season for must win games.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Rams @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

The Rams are 1-1 despite not scoring a touchdown on offence yet this season. This week they travel down to Tampa Bay, where I expect Jameis Winston to bounce back from his terrible performance last week. I really don’t trust the Rams, and I think this is a game where they could be exposed.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

It is just possible that the Seahawks have a fatal flaw thanks to the combination of Marshawn Lynch retiring and the continued awfulness of their offensive line. I don’t exactly see them loosing this game, but I am not at all convinced that they will run out ten point winners over anyone. The 49ers are playing hard for Chip Kelly, and I see him keeping this one competitive even on another tough road trip.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Chargers @ Colts (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game. The Chargers are on the road in Indianapolis having lost Danny Woodhead last week after losing Keenan Allen in week one. Their defence is playing better than it was last year, but the injury bug keeps biting this team. The Colts have looked okay offensively thanks to Andrew Luck looking more like himself, but the offensive line still isn’t that great and they’ve now lost Dante Moncrief to a fractured shoulder blade. They have also struggled once more in rush defence. I’m reluctantly backing the Colts at home as it is hard to see a team with a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck going 0-3, but that’s not to say it won’t happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jets @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are not quite right on defence, and their offence fell short against a Texans’ defence that were looking very good until they played the Patriots on Thursday. I trust Andy Reid but I think they might have too many injuries at similar positions. That said, Arrowhead Stadium is a famously difficult place to visit and the Jets have injury concerns of their own in their very deep receiver group. I’m really not sure which way this could go, but I’m going to back the Jets as from what I have seen I believe that they are the better team even if this is a difficult spot.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Steelers @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Eagles have got off to a surprisingly good start with rookie Carson Wentz playing very well, but the Steelers are a completely different level of team to the Browns or Bears and so I think the Steelers run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Bears @ Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bears are really struggling, and with the number of injuries piling up to go alongside the problems they were already having even before Jay Cutler hurt his thumb, I think they are in for a long game against the Cowboys in Dallas. The line makes me slightly nervous, but at the end of the day I think the Cowboys are simply better equipped to win this game by a fair margin.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Falcons @ Saints (-3.5)

I really don’t have a handle on the Falcons, who are coming off a road win in Oakland to face a Saints team who at least managed to stop the Giants’ offence from running rampant last week. The problem for me is that I don’t have great hand on the Saints either, but their defence still scares me, and with the extra half point I’m going to pick the Falcons to cover, but I’m really not very confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

22 Thursday Sep 2016

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Adrian Peterson, Bill Belichick, Carson Wentz, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garopollo, Josh McDaniels, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Sam Bradford, Seattle Seahawks, Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, Week 3 Picks

I won’t go into the reasons why me usual routine has been turned around this week, but it does remind of the various quotes regarding what happens to plans when they run into reality.

The NFL is a very real reminder of this, with various teams already facing very different situations than they expected. Of course, for the Vikings the plan didn’t even survive the pre-season, with Teddy Bridgewater going down with his horrible knee injury in practice. This not only affected the Vikings, but Carson Wentz is now starting and surprising everyone with the quality of his play for the Eagles after Philidelphia traded the expected starter Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Both teams are now 2-0, with Bradford surprising everyone with his performance against Green Bay on Sunday as the Vikings eked out a win despite losing Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus that could keep him out until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Browns who traded down with the Eagles, allowing the team from Philadelphia to select Wentz are facing questions about what they didn’t like about the quarterback. If the Browns are the ones that are getting asked the questions now having lost two starting quarterbacks in the first two weeks, there could be some awkward questions for the Rams who picked Jared Goff instead of Wentz. With Goff failing to even dress in week one, and the offence still not having scored a touchdown this season, you can see people beginning to wonder about the decision even if the questioning does seem to have been delayed by the win the Rams ground out against the Seahawks on Sunday.

These days everybody wants to declare the winners and losers as soon as possible, despite the fact things are often far more complex than they seen. Planning is important, but rarely do even the most basic plans survive when you put them into action.

The thing we need in life to counter this is adaptability and resilience. The mental toughness to take what is thrown at you is often the difference between trying to do something, and the perseverance to make it a success.

The actual truth is that we don’t know how either Goff or Wentz’s actual careers will go, two games of their rookie season is simply not a big enough sample size, and the thing I like about the way the Rams holding out Goff is that if he’s not ready he shouldn’t just be thrown in. Because we picked him first is a really bad reason to start a quarterback. If you have a player you hope will play of a decade, it doesn’t make sense to play them early to appease the matter of winning now, or at least it doesn’t if there is a real risk that you could hurt the development of the player.

Sometimes circumstances don’t allow for this. Tonight the New England Patriots will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett thanks to a combination of Tom Brady’s four game suspension and Jimmy Garopollo spraining his throwing shoulder during last week’s win against the Miami Dolphins. I am looking forward to seeing how Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick scheme an offence in only three days practice for a third round draft pick who was their third string quarterback going into the season.

For some this would be too much, and excuse for a team to lose a game, but somehow I think that at least part of the coaches will be relishing the challenge.

You trust that he’ll get good coaching but it’s a hell of a task and there simply could be not enough time, which leads me to tonight’s pick:

Texans @ Patriots (-0.5)

It turns out that apart from lots of points, the other thing that will get me to pick against the Patriots is being down to their third string quarterback with only three days to prepare. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t win tonight, but it is a big ask and not one I’m prepared to pick as the most likely to happen. Watch Bill Belichick prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:           Texans
Dan’s Pick:           Texans

NFL Week 3 Picks

24 Thursday Sep 2015

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My picks last week were a rubbish filled skip fire of the smelliest matter imaginable, where as Dan managed to keep steady and so after two weeks we are both have a fifty percent record. This reminds me that gambling is fundamentally stupid, and would make me wonder why I bother making these picks if it wasn’t for the fact that I love the game. We are also beginning to learn some things about certain teams, whilst others stubbornly remain a mystery so on to another interesting week.

Gee:    Week 2   5-11              Overall   16-16
Dan:    Week 2   8-8                Overall   16-16

Washington @ Giants (-3.5)

I am really looking forward to watching this game to get a proper look at these teams.

The Giants have twice held ten point leads going into the fourth quarter, and yet have an 0-2 record. Odell Beckham came to play against the Falcons, catching a ball on a slant pattern and taking it to the end-zone whilst racking up a further six catches for a total of one hundred and forty-six yards. Although he didn’t throw an interception, Eli Manning fumbled the ball twice with one of those going to the Falcons, and if you combine this with the clock management issues from game 1, then you can see that Eli has not had the best of starts to the season. However, so far their defence has been better than many were predicting before the start of the season, and they were neither the first, nor I suspect the last, defence to fail to cover Julio Jones. They will be desperately looking to get a win this week, particularly as results around them mean they are by no means out of the race for the NFC East, but they need to turn things around quickly.

The results so far have been a pleasant surprise for Washington fans. They played the Dolphins tough in week one, and then got a win against the Rams last week. Their defence has taken a step up from last year, and their offensive line looks better as well, which has enabled them to run the ball effectively both weeks. They are only getting steady play from quarterback Kirk Cousins, but if he can continue to protect the ball then the signs of progress in Washington could well bear fruit.

This is one of those games where I haven’t got a feel for either team compared to each other, but the line isn’t quite high enough for me to pick a road underdog, so I’ll back the Giants in this one. Reluctantly.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Falcons@ Cowboys (+0.5)

The Cowboys are having the worst 2-0 start to the season you could imagine, having lost Dez Bryant in week 1 to a broken foot, and now Tony Romo is out for at least eight weeks with a broken collar bone. Their defence has played well, but the offence has understandably sputtered, and neither Brandon Weeden nor the recently acquired Matt Cassel exactly inspires confidence. They will hope to do well enough to give Tony Romo something to come back for, but it could be a rough few weeks for this team.

The Falcons on the other hand, have got off to a much improved start when compared to last year as their defence is playing much better under the influence of new head coach Dan Quinn, and Julio Jones continues to give defensive backs nightmares. I have been wrong my fair share of times this season, but I think the Falcons will have too much for the injured Cowboys this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bengals @ Ravens (-2.5)

The Raven have had a curious start to their season as they have fallen to 0-2. The first loss in Denver could be explained by the Broncos frightening defence, which if you are starting the season with another new offensive coordinator is not the game you would have picked for yourself. However, I don’t think anyone was expecting them to lose to the Raiders, and more worryingly, give up so much offence to them. In fact, this was more of a problem for the Ravens than their own offence, which racked up nearly five hundred yards of total offence and three touchdowns. But the Ravens defence gave up three hundred and fifty yards in the air, and although Terrell Suggs is a miss, they have to overcome it if they are going to turn their season round. They will be glad to be back in Baltimore for their home opener, and I have no doubt this will be another close AFC North battle.

The Bengals continued their good start with a second win against the Chargers. I would have liked the run defence to be a little stouter, and Dre Kirkpatrick will have to watch the penalties despite his excellent overall plays, but Geno Atkins is looking like himself again and the defence picked up four sacks with the d-line rotation really coming together. On offence, Andy Dalton is spreading the ball around to all the weapons the Bengals now have on offence, and even when someone misfires like Jeremy Hill did in this game, then someone else steps up. Dalton threw for another three touchdowns to make five on the season without an interception, and Tyler Eifert caught another one as he continues to make a name for himself at tight end.

I am worried about this pick as I think the Ravens are due a win, and will be desperate in their home opener to turn things around, but the optimist is hoping the Bengals’ season continues its good start.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Raiders @ Browns (-3.5)

There are a number of teams that have struggled in recent years that have got a win already this year, and the Browns recovered from a bad loss in their first game to get themselves on the board. The defence got an impressive seven sacks as they gave Titan’s rookie Marcus Mariota a look at the other side of being an NFL quarterback. I’m still not sure what the Browns are going to be on offence, but in Travis Benjamin they got big plays in the passing game to go along with his seventy-eight yard punt return for a touchdown, but both his long touchdown receptions had the hint of the last minute hail Mary pass and so you wonder what will happen against better defences. Manziel looked a bit more like the college player that so wowed people on the long plays to Benjamin, but we still don’t know if he can sustain success in the NFL, and clearly the Browns are not sure as they look to be returning Josh McCown to the starting line up having cleared the league’s concussion protocol.

The Raiders also had their own redemption in week two as having been soundly beaten by the Bengals in week one, they got the win in a big performance against the Baltimore Ravens. The defence doesn’t seemed to have found its feet yet, with Kahlil Mack yet to record a sack from his new position of defensive end, but the offence kept pace with the Ravens to get the job done.

I’m not exactly sure about either side, but I’ll back the Browns with the Raiders travelling all the way across from the west coast, even if it does feel like a coin flip.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Colts @ Titans (+3.5)

The Titans got a dose of reality against the Browns as they gave up a lot of sacks on offence, and big plays on defence and special teams. That said, Mariota did steady the ship in the second half, getting a couple of touchdowns as they recovered from being 0-21 down to make it 14-28 at the end of the game. They seem to be heading in the right direction, and whilst it is too early to tell how far this progress will take them this season, how they go in this game could be an indicator.

The Colts have got off to a rotten start, and the disharmony between Chuck Pagano and the front office staff seems to be spilling out into the press alongside criticism of Andrew Luck. There is no denying their franchise quarterback’s talent, and it is admirable that he cares more about winning than his stats, but he has to do a better job of protecting the football if the Colts are going to win. Now in fairness to him, it’s all very well to say that, but given the lack of talent that the Colts have put in front of him in the offensive line, it is not a surprise that he would struggle. If nothing else, apart from drafting Luck first over all, there have been more misses that hits in recent years and the front office has been focussing on toys for Luck rather than bolstering the offensive and defensive lines, which is what this team really needs. This game is a big one, in which the Colts will either begin to rally round, or truly sink into the mire. To their credit, they have played two very good defences, and whilst the Titans are improving, I don’t think this is the game they will win. However, I think it will be a performance that masks the Colts’s deficiencies rather than truly marks a turnaround, and whilst I can still see them winning their division, I don’t see them improving on their playoff performance this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Steelers @ Rams (+1.5)

The Rams seem to have fallen into a classic let down game, having got the good win against their division rival at home, they then travelled across the country and were steamrollered by Washington’s improving offensive line. Their defensive front is very impressive, which makes Washington’s efforts all the more remarkable, but makes it very hard for me to know what to do with them in this game against the Steelers. In Nick Fowles they seem to have a quarterback who can do a bit more in the vertical passing game, but there is a question of which Rams team will show up.

The Steelers ran into a buzz saw in the opening game of the season, but put things right against the 49ers with a comprehensive win. The offense is only going to improve with Le’Veon Bell returning to the line up, although DeAngelo Williams has been able backup. However, the difference maker for me is Antonio Brown, who is making a strong case for being the best receiver in the league. He had nearly two hundred yards against the 49ers and I think the Steelers are settling into a good team now.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Chargers@ Vikings (-2.5)

The Vikings looked more like the team we were expecting to see in week two. The rumours of Adrian Peterson’s decline were soundly dispelled with nearly two hundred all purpose yards, and Teddy Bridgewater responded to Mike Zimmer’s tough coaching with a turnover free game and two touchdowns, one through the air and another on the ground. The defence got a pair of fumbles and an interception, and so now we just have to see if the Vikings can sustain this, or if they are going to have an up and down season.

The Chargers are also 1-1, having been solidly beaten by the Bengals, but I was impressed with rookie running back Melvin Gordon, and Danny Woodhead was as dangerous as ever coming out of the backfield. With Philip Rives at quarterback, the Chargers are always going to have a chance, but the defence is still going to be a question, and they only have one sack for the season to go along with a Football Outsiders Defensive DAVE ranking of twenty-fifth.

That said, the Chargers did well enough against the Bengals this week that I think they will have enough going into Minnesota, even if the prospect of Peterson running into the Chargers defence does worry me a lot.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Jaguars @ Patriots (-13.5)

I need to learn my lessons about the Patriots, which is that it’s not that I don’t see the things that I worry about, but the game plan changes so much that you should just have faith in Belichick and Brady until things start costing them games consistently. Even Rex Ryan came out and said he was out coached, although I’m sure part of that was to take the pressure of his team, and you can see why players love to play for Ryan. But whilst they might love playing for Ryan, if you can stomach the way Belichick coaches you get to win a lot of football games. A healthy Rob Gronkowski is a terrifying weapon, and with Julian Edleman catching so many balls their offence is really humming. When one side of the ball is working so well, the other side only has to be good enough, and they certainly were against the Bills and you imagine they will be again against the Jaguars at home.

The Jaguars are another team that has struggled in recent years that managed to get a win this week against a Dolphins team that seems to be suffering various kinds of dysfunction. Whilst getting a win this early is a sign of improvement, and is encouraging given the injuries they’ve had to start the season, there is not getting away from the fact that the Jaguars are still not a good team, which is reflected in the line. I really wanted to take the Bucs last week, but couldn’t bring myself to do it in the face of their week one performance. I’m tempted to take the Jaguars, but let’s be honest here, despite the points, the Patriots and Tom Brady are desperate to prove a point this season so there is only one way I can go with this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Saints @ Panthers (-6.5)

The Panthers are winning ugly. Their defence is playing well, even last week minus Luke Kuechly who is under league concussion protocol, and the offence is getting enough done despite losing their best receiver for the year in preseason. The thing that worries me is how much Cam Newton is carrying his team, not because he can’t in bursts, but because I don’t know how long he can sustain it if he keeps running the ball as much as he does. The flip into the end zone against the Texans last week is all very well, but you just hope for the Panthers’ sake that he can stay healthy.

The Saints look to be heading towards the end of an era. There’s talk that Brees will play this week, but you would worry about his bruised rotator-cuff and there hasn’t been much evidence of moving towards a run based attack. More worrying is the defence, which is not playing well, and as a team that doesn’t travel that well I’m not expecting them to turn things round in Carolina.

I could regret this as we’ve had a lot of upsets this season, but I’m sticking with the home favourite in this one, after all the Saints just got beat convincingly by the Bucs.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Eagles @ Jets (-2.5)

The Jets have got off to a really strong start, and having taken care of the Browns in week one, they had more than enough to see off the Colts in the Monday night game. Tod Bowles has come in and made the most of the secondary that was brought in over the offseason to create a very strong defence that had more than enough to exploit the problems the Colts are having. They have just announced that Ryan Fitzpatrick will remain their starter even when Geno Smith is back healthy, which given how solid the Jets have looked in their opening two games is hardly a surprise. They may miss Eric Decker if, as expected, he misses this game with a knee injury, but the Eagles secondary has not exactly being doing great things so far this season.

The result of the Eagles game really surprised me as their offence looked to be coming together in the second half against the Falcons, and they could have very easily won that game. Instead of them coming out in their home opener and setting things right, they struggled, bringing into question some of the high profile moves that Chip Kelly has made now that he has full power over personnel decision. I think there is an element of Kelly the GM letting down Kelly the coach, as the line is being questioned and an awful lot of talent has been shipped out. It is also interesting to hear people question the coaching and whether his system can work at the NFL. The theory is that now that defensive coordinators have had time to study, that you can’t scheme a win based on spacing if you don’t have players that can win one-on-one matchups. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the season, as I really was impressed with Kelly as an interview last year, and with what I saw on tape. However, I see the logic of their being too many man hours spent in professional coaching to allow you to win on scheme alone, and the price spent on running backs rather than on linemen worried me, as well as the trade for Kiko Alonso who has promptly re-injured his ACL.  The last thing the Eagles need to get themselves right is an away trip to a very good Jets defence, and I think it is about to get worse for the Eagles before it can get any better.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Buccaneers @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans appear to not be a very good football team right now. They still have JJ Watt who amassed four tackles, two quarterback hits, and his obligatory sack, but if you look at Football Outsider’s DAVE statistic they are only ranked fifteenth on defence and given where their offence is ranked, this isn’t high enough to get them wins yet. If the defence doesn’t look quite right, the offence is really struggling, which is in part to them missing Arian Foster and not being able to run the ball. For me this make me wonder about their offensive line, which again only ranked twenty-first in the league according to Football Outsiders for run blocking, as both Alfred Blue and Chris Polk looked okay in preseason and are not getting it done. I don’t think the changes at quarterback have helped this team at all, if you pick Hoyer for his consistency, then you have to give him more than three quarters before you yank him out of his first year with an offence. I’m not a huge Hoyer fan, but he was solid at the Browns and given we’ve seen Mallett miss training through over sleeping and mimic Cam Netwon’s Superman celebration having scored a touchdown, whilst losing, I don’t have a lot of faith in Mallett as a replacement.

This week the Texans welcome a Buccaneers team who vastly improved on their performance in week one. On offence Jameis Winston was able to protect the ball in throwing for over two hundred yards and a touchdown whilst not adding to his interception total from his debut, and in the running game they got over one hundred and thirty-nine yards. Meanwhile on defence the Bucs looked to have a better handle on Lovie Smith’s cover 2 system, generating a total of three turnovers, but causing five fumbles even if they only recovered two of them. Fumble recovery is one of those things that is entirely random, but causing fumbles can be taught and is something Smith has always focussed on as this is why he plays the softer coverage in his cover 2 system, it protects you from deep plays, but also allows defenders to keep an eye on the ball and try to intercept/rip it out.

It is hard to say for certain who is going to win this game give we have only played two games, but I don’t see why the Texans should be giving six and half a points away, and so despite risking the wrath of JJ Watt, I’m going to back the Bucs to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

49ers @ Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are staking a claim to be the best team in the NFC West this year. They are 2-0, but have only faced the Saints and Bears so far, but welcome divisional rivals the 49ers this week. They are ranked inside the top ten for both defensive and offense according to statistics, and whilst it is hard to read too much into that given that Football Outsiders are not adjusting for opponents yet and who they have played, the Cardinals have looked very good on offence and should have more than enough defence to cope with the visiting 49ers.

The 49ers came back to Earth with a bump against the Steelers last week. There are very few teams that are going to find it easy to cope with the Steelers offence, but they were unable to get a sack or force a turnover in that game, so you worry about them facing a Carson Parmar who has looked very good so far this season. On offence, they only had one turnover themselves, but conceded five sacks and Kaepernick fumbled the ball twice. What is more, Kapernick was also their leading rusher and this is not likely to a recipie for long term success.

You would normally expect divisional games to be close, but I think that Cardinals are in a different class to the 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Bills @ Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins eked out a win in game one, and then lost to the Jaguars. The defensive line has not been as good as was expected, with Cameron Wake fighting an injury which has limited his productivity, which has meant teams have been able to focus on Suh. Let us not forget that this unit fell apart at the end of last season, and have not looked that great this season. More worrying perhaps though is the lack of offence that the Dolphins have had. The offensive line is struggling at both guard positions, and am injury to Lamar Miller means that the running game looks set to continue to struggle, whilst Tannehill hasn’t been as efficient as he was last year whilst being asked to do a lot because of the lack of run game.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, this week they welcome the first of a pair of good defences that they face over the next two weeks. The Patriots may have put up huge numbers and points on the Bills, but make no mistake, this is a very good defence who will have a point to prove and one suspects Rex Ryan will be doubly focussed in this game. The Bills offence is also likely to benefit from not having to keep up with Brady and co. this week, so I can see this going very wrong for the Dolphins.

I know that Dan always likes to pick his team, but I think that unless they can turn things round very quickly, it could be past the bye week before the Dolphins get another win. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Bears @ Seahawks (-14.5)

Not all 0-2 teams are created equal, as this game nicely demonstrates. The Seahawks lost a surprise game against the Rams, but no one can really blame a team for losing to the Packers in Green Bay. However, whilst the Kam Chancellor hold out has ended, which should help with their defensive problems, there are issues on offence that might not be addressed this season. The line is struggling, which is not a surprise if you trade a when healthy Pro-Bowl centre and don’t invest in his replacement. This might be part of the explanation for their struggles running the ball, although maybe farther time is sneaking up on Marshawn Lynch. The failure of Jimmy Graham to impress is indicative of a problem the Seahawks seem to have in offensive game planning. I’m not sure Graham’s problems are that surprising given that the Seahawks singularly failed to integrate Percy Harvin into their plans, but if the difficult personality he has mitigates that failure, Golden Tate has been very good for an up and down Lions team and he did not look like that playing in Seattle. It shouldn’t be that hard to integrate a talent like Graham into your offence, even if you don’t want to make him the centre piece of your game plan, but he was only targeted twice against the Packers last week, and given that you traded number one picks and a centre to get him, you would have thought that he would have been expected to make a difference to your team.

Turning round the Bears looked like it would be a long process before the season, and so far it certainly has lived up to that impression. On the other end of the 0-2 spectrum, the Bears lost respectably to the Packers in week one, and then got thumped by the Cardinals last week. To make matters worse, they lost quarterback Jay Cutler to a hamstring injury, and as yet we don’t know if he will play Sunday. This could easily turn into a season of losses where the Bears fans start studiously studying the quarterbacks likely to declare for the draft rather than concentrate on the team on the field.

Seattle is not the place to visit if there are questions about your quarterback, and with Kam Chancellor returning to the fold and likely playing, I fear for the Bears in this one. The points make me pause, but in the end they lost by twenty-five points last week and I suspect Seattle’s 12th man will be raucously desperate to make their voices heard in their team’s home opener.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Broncos @ Lions (+4.5)

The Lions have got off to a rocky start on the road, losing a lead in the fourth quarter to a surging Chargers team in the first game, and going behind in the first quarter against the Vikings to fall to a second loss. The defence hasn’t rebounded from losing Suh yet, and are still missing DeAndre Levey to injury, whilst the offence is having familiar problems with their offensive line. They couldn’t get anything going on the ground against the Vikings’ defence, and Matthew Stafford is carrying some kind of rib injury which may account for his inaccuracy with the ball.

The Broncos stole a second win against the Chiefs, in a game they very easily could, and possibly should, have lost. All the talk is about Peyton Manning and whether he is done, but whilst he is well past his best, when the Broncos ran his offence Manning was effective moving the ball, and I’m not sure there isn’t some compromise on the scheme coming. The real problem with the offence is going to be if they can’t get the offensive line to gel and establish a run game that takes the pressure off him, but as long as the defence continues to look like one of the nastiest in the league then they will always have a chance.

The Lions are getting four and a half points, but I don’t see them being able to move the ball on the Broncos so I don’t think they will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Chiefs @ Packers (-7.5)

The Packers lost a major piece on offence in the preseason, and lost Eddie Lacy last week to an ankle problem, but Aaron Rodgers is so good that it hasn’t slowed them down at all. The good news is that Lacy’s injury doesn’t seem to be too bad, and James Starks is a more than capable backup who ran for ninety-five yards of his own last week. On defence it looks like BJ Raji is beginning to find some form, and Clay Mathews has stiffened their run defence by switching between playing his favourite outside linebacker spot inside on running downs. The ageless Julius Peppers is still giving them a pass rush, and you have to think that they will win at home this week.

The Chiefs are a good team, but they couldn’t put the Broncos away at home, and even with their excellent defence, you have to worry about them visiting Green Bay. They have the pass rushers to trouble Aaron Rodgers, and Marcus Peters has been very impressive in his rookie season at corner back, but I don’t think they will be able to keep up with the Packers in Lambeau field where Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception in something like two seasons.

I think that if this was played on a neutral field or at Arrowhead then the Chiefs might have a chance of getting an upset, but I fear they will fall short this week and fail to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

NFL Week 3 Picks

18 Thursday Sep 2014

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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NFL, Week 3 Picks

Last week I went a horrible four and twelve so I’m going to do a quick check evaluation of where I went wrong so hopefully I can do better as Dan and I are now tied up at thirteen and nineteen across the season.

The first place I can start is that I probably have to trust my first instincts more, even if some of them were a based on gut instincts. I send the lines to Dan on a Tuesday night and make initial picks, and then refine them as I write the blog. I initially picked the Ravens, Patriots, Jets, and Bears; then changed my mind as I wrote the games up and lost on all of them. That’s throwing away a pretty respectable eight and eight week, plus I was always worried about the amount of points the Broncos were giving.

What I am taking away from the first two weeks is that the Jaguars are not continuing with the steps they made last season, and I yet I still want to pick them this week. The Buccaneers are injured and bad, the Panthers are much better than I thought they were going to be and I think the Saints may just be good rather that top echelon. Also the Bills have won both of their games, but I don’t trust Manuel so I just don’t know what to do with them. So let’s take a look at this week’s games, and I really don’t like the lines in a lot of them.

Oh yes, and this week I’ll remember to actually state our records!

Gee:      Week 2   4-12                     Overall   13-19
Dan:      Week 2   5-11                     Overall   13-19

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-6.5)

So the game that I get to write up in detail this week is the Buccaneers who I appear to have overestimated and a Falcons team who had a good win week one against the Saints and then got beat pretty handily by the Bengals. I think this is going to be a win for the Falcons, who looked pretty good to me in preseason, but now we’re in live games it’s not so obvious. They’re at home, where they’ve historically been strong, I’m not sure about the points they’re giving but I’m going to take them anyway. I’ll be interested to see the Buccaneers as I really thought Lovie Smith was going to have more of an impact, but it already looks like it is going to be another long season for the Bucs.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)

I do not have a handle on the Bills, and according to my planned schedule I don’t get to see them until week 11 so given that they’re playing the Charges, I suspect I’ll be taking a look this week. The Bills look to be running well, and Watkins is beginning to show his quality but EJ Manuel is still a question at quarterback, whilst on defence they’ve been pretty strong. The Chargers are one and one, but coming off a strong win against the Seahawks and went close against the Cardinals who are unbeaten this year. I think the Chargers are a playoff team this year, and although they benefitted from the heat against the Seahawks at home, I’m picking them to beat the Bills up in Buffalo. This does mean that I am picking against the Bills for a third week, and whilst I do believe in their results, I just think they’re going to fall short in this game. I think I’ve written that before.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – Bills won well on Sunday, but having watched the game, I’d say that was more down to the Dolphins being poor, than the bills being especially good. Chargers on the other hand looked very good on Sunday so easy pick for me.

Titans @ Bengals (-6.5)

Who Dey! Right, now I’ve got that out of my system, the Bengals have got off to a good start in terms of winning both of their games with the defence looking very strong. I’m also impressed with the game planning that Hue Jackson has done to deal with his shifting team. Right now they’re coping with the injury bug that has really hit them, but how long that can continue I am not sure. However, maybe the early bye week is not such an issue if it means that the Bengals can get some bodies healthy. The Titans have beaten a struggling Chiefs team and then lost to a so-so Cowboys team. Jake Locker threw two interceptions last week and will have to look after the ball if they are to win. I don’t think this is likely, I’m not expecting a great season for the Titans and whilst I’m worried about the points, I backing the Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Ravens @ Browns (+1.5)

I’m impressed with both of these teams but for different reasons. The Browns have a pretty good defence, and having lost to him last season, I respect Brian Hoyer as a solid NFL starter. However, there has been so much dysfunction in the way this team has been managed and I think they are going to struggle to move the ball in this game. I was pretty impressed with the Ravens last week. You can go through the details in my recap of their game against the Steelers (see here), but I think their defence is going to be effective and their offence looked like it was coming together, so I expect a typical AFC North battle with the Ravens coming out on top.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Cowboys @ Rams (+0.5)

The Rams won out in a battle with another of the struggling teams of this season in the Bucs. There is so much talent on defence, but loosing Chris Long to IR designated to return is going to be painful and the offence is not firing at all. The Cowboys defence, much maligned in preseason, seems to be keeping them close enough to win and their offence did enough to win. If Romo can protect the ball then the Cowboys can be competitive. I don’t trust them in the long run but this week I am backing them to beat the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowborys

Dan’s Comments: – I got some stick for picking the Cowboys last week and as it turned out, they won! So I think I’ll stick with them this week. That being said, I’d pick almost anyone against the Rams this season!

Packers @ Lions (-1.5)

The Packers came back against the Jets and won as I expected them to, but as I thought they couldn’t cover the spread. The question remains the defence, and if it can keep them close enough for their offence to win. They did a job against the Jets, but the Lions offence is a different proposition. The Lions got beaten pretty comprehensively by the Panthers last week, and so I am not sure about them. I need to see them to get a feel for how the offence is rolling, but the Panthers have a good defence so I’m prepared to give them a little bit of credit going against the Packers this week. However, the secondary is a question and so it was a little bit strange for them to take a tight end rather than a defensive back in the first round of the draft. I fancy the Packers to win, the Lions seem to have a knack for shooting themselves in the foot, they had a golden chance to win the division last year and didn’t manage it, I fear another middling season for them.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Dan’s Comments: –

Colts @ Jaguars (+6.5)

Urgh. I really hate this line. I’ve been bitten by the Jaguars twice this season and I have re-evaluated my opinion on them. I’ll still be tempted by double digit lines, but until they prove something to me I have to stay away. That said, I’m still not terribly impressed by the Colts, but Andrew Luck is too good to bet against in a game like this. I’m tempted by the points, but I’ve been bitten too many times already this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Patriots (-14.5)

My only concern about this game is the spread. The Patriots looked like themselves again, but the real news is that despite the Raiders bringing in a number of free agents that were meant to bring them up to respectability, things are not going well. It is one thing to lose a close game to the Jets, but getting blown out by the Texans at home is very worrying. If the Texans can win by sixteen at the Raiders, I hope the Patriots can do something similar at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Dan’s Comments: -Pats will win this one quite easily, but not by more than two touchdowns, so I’ll pick Oakland this week.

Interlude for More Important Matters:

One of the next teams, the Vikings, seems to be suffering from the moral compass issues that a number of teams are showing right now. Having suspended Peterson over charges relating to disciplining one of his children with a tree branch for the game on Sunday, he was re-instated Monday before being suspended for the rest of the season after further discussion late Tuesday night in the States, not to mention reaction to his reinstatement. This, along with the Panthers playing Greg Hardy until the Ray Rice suspension despite a conviction for domestic violence awaiting an appeal, the 49ers still playing Ray McDonald despite him being under investigation in another domestic violence case, and whilst in the process of writing this blog Jonathan Dwyer also has been arrested for aggravated assault involved a woman and an 18-month-old child, just go to demonstrate how wrong the NFL has got it. There are issues of due process, but the league could certainly do more by enforcing a more consistent policy that took the decision out of the teams hands, but surely at some point the teams have to consider what a horrible message it sends to allow these players to continue to play in front of millions of viewers instead of being suspended until their cases have been dealt with, then applying appropriate punishments. It would help if Roger Goodell would come out of hiding and actually show some leadership, but that doesn’t seem likely at the moment. The smallest crumb of comfort is that at least the Arizona Cardinals deactivated Dwyer when the charges were brought. Still, it is a pretty tough time to be a fan of the NFL and I just hope that material change is in the works as things cannot continue like this.

Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)

The Vikings got beaten soundly with bad special teams play, an inability to stop the Patriots offence, an offence where Cassel gave the ball away too much, and Cordarrelle Patterson simply didn’t get enough touches. I hope they get this fixed and I have faith in Mike Zimmer, but he’s been dealt a tough hand in the last week with Peterson situation and the way it was handled by the team execs and the league. The Saints have had a pretty horrid start to the season, but they have been away from home for both games and this does make a difference to how they play. I think they will be better this game and I nearly second guessed myself with this pick and went with the Saints, but I’m worried about their defence and I can’t pick a team with two losses to win by eleven or more.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Texans @ Giants (+2.5)

The Giants looked bad and lost, despite Eli Manning playing better than he had. However there are still a lot of problems here and I think I they will lose a lot of games this season. The Texans have been pretty solid on offence, have managed to avoid beating themselves and have one of my favourite players. Apart from his usual tackles and sacks, JJ Watt also has a blocked extra point and a touchdown reception whilst playing as a tight end this season. I know they’re away from home, but I fancy them to continue their good run this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Dan’s Comments: – think Gee’s Man Crush JJ Watt will have another good week this week and lead the Texans to a good win.

Washington @ Eagles (-6.5)

Washington are better than I thought they were going to be, and whilst the Jaguars have added some gloss to their defensive stats, the defence has been solid so far. The offence did better this week, despite losing RG3 to a dislocated ankle that he picked up without contact. I’m not sure if we’re ever going to see the dynamic player of his rookie season again, I hope that he finds his way, but even athletically talented people don’t always have the type of body that holds up to the rigours of football. It does appear that Kirk Cousins is more comfortable in the offence as a drop back passer but it will take time to see if he can be a full time starter and sadly he’s going to get it. I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and so far, they have dealt with setbacks and some rotation on their offensive line to win both of their games. Whilst I think that Washington are better than I previously gave them credit for, I like the Eagles for the win and I just hope they cover as well.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

49ers @ Cardinals(+2.5)

It is pretty impressive that the Cardinals were able to win without Carson Palmer last week, but I liked their defence in preseason and it seems to be holding up so far this season. There were already problems for the 49ers with injuries and suspensions, so they could ill afford for Kaepernick to throw three interceptions. I think that there’s too much talent on their roster for them to be bad, but right now their depth is getting sorely tested and I think this is one the games that’s going to get away from them.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Broncos @ Seahawks (-4.5)

A repeat of the Super Bowl in week three and a game that everyone can look forward to. The Seahawks may have lost last week, but it was in stifling heat and their offence was moving the ball, it’s just that the Chargers did an incredible job of sustaining long drives to keep them on the sideline. For the Broncos this season has been a case of job done so far. They have not shined like last year, but they are beating the teams in front of them. I think that if this game was being played in any other venue that it would be a really close game, but with the Seahawks playing at home after a loss I think they are going to look more like the team that dismantled a good Packers team. The Broncos have a better defence, but I don’t think they have enough for this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Dan’s Comments: – Replay of February’s Superbowl, but this time, the Broncos will take it.

Chiefs @ Dolphins (-4.5)

What do I do here? The Chiefs are sinking. Too many injuries and they have not looked good despite what I had seen previous. The problem is that the Dolphins have a good win against the Patriots and then lose to the Bills. I don’t know if the Bills are good, but I know that the questions surrounding Tannehill are genuine and I’m not sure how he’s going to go here. I feel fairly comfortable that the Dolphins are going to win, but that line is just high enough to make me think twice about it. However, in the end I’m going with my first instinct.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: -You’ll probably notice I’ve picked the Dolphins every week so far. What can I say – I’m a hopeful man!

Bonus Dan content: – I haven’t had a chance to watch the Dolphins @ Bills game so I asked Dan for his thoughts which I present here:

Watching the Dolphins this week was quite difficult to do, not least because we were so poor on the Offensive side of the ball. Ryan Tannehill looked quite panicky at times, and I really can’t blame him with the regularity of our offensive line collapses. That being said, you could argue that the Bills’ defensive unit is one of the best in the league at the minute, but having given our offensive line a complete overhaul in the off-season, I really would expect them to stand up much better than they did in Week 2.

Along with that, Tannehill was really struggling to move the ball through the air. This was especially evident during the first half when we failed to get into Bills territory (in fact, it wasn’t until nearly 3 minutes into the second half before we advanced past the 50). It was also Quarter 3 before he managed to make a completion to Brian Hartline, who was his go-to guy last year. All in all, it was a difficult game on the ground too. Having been the league’s top runner in Week One, Knowshon Moreno lasted no longer than a few minutes this week and looks like he may be out for at least a couple of games. Lamar Miller looked pretty banged up by the end of the game too. It seems to me as though unless Tannehill starts to really connect and form a good partnership with a couple of his receivers, it could be a difficult few weeks in moving the ball.

Defensively, we weren’t all that bad – I certainly don’t think their high-ish score was reflective of their performance. We weren’t helped by an extremely good kick-off return being run back for a touchdown in the third quarter. Honestly, I’m an offence guy (I used to be a Full Back) but I defy anyone to talk to Gee about American football for any period of time without getting excited about defence, and I’m actually quite impressed with how they’ve been over the first couple of games.

If we can get our O to match our D, we’ll be there or there abouts come the end of the sea

Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)

I was wrong about the Panthers. Their re-tooled offensive line is working and their defence is holding up really well. The Steelers don’t look right to me and whilst I’m not saying that they will be bad, I don’t think they’re going to be good either. It’s always dangerous to discount them, but I think the Panthers continue their good start to the year.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bears @ Jets (-2.5)

I have a strange amount of faith in Rex Ryan’s defence, even with the questions in the secondary and Geno Smith continues to develop as a quarterback. The Jets are 2-0 against the spread, ever if I didn’t pick them both weeks. The concern here is that they were facing a bad Raiders team in week 1 and had the points in the Packers. The Bears did well to win last week, but they are struggling in run defence, had gimpy receivers and are shuffling offensive lineman. This is another line that I’m really hesitant on so I’m sticking with my gut and picking the Jets to run on the Bears, find a way to get stops on defence and win the game. I’m not exactly confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Dan’s Comments: – Sorry Jets fans, I think it’s 0-3 for you! (Editor’s note, I will be impressed if this happens given that the Jets are currently 1-1, I don’t think they’re going to lose so badly to the Bears that the league are going to deduct a win)

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