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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Tag Archives: Week 3 Picks

2022 Week Three Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2022

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 3 Picks

So we all picked the Steelers getting that many points and saw it lose, even though having watched the game I feel with a couple of very possible different breaks the Steelers could very easily have covered against the Browns so I certainly don’t feel like we were wrong. Still, our attention turns to the rest of the week’s games and there’s a few games where the picks are tricky but plenty I’m curious about.

I will say that I appear to have a lot of road teams this week, but I try to pick based on the numbers and what I think of the matchup so let’s see how week three goes.

Early Games:

There’s a few high lines in the early slate of games, but I think the Bills visiting the Dolphins will be closer than the line thinks despite the Bills’ hot start to the season, whilst I think the opposite of the Colts hosting the Chiefs. I’m curious about the results between the Ravens visiting the Patriots and properly concerned about the Bengals visiting the Jets.

I think the other game from the Bengals visiting the Jets that I will be watching from this group is the Texans at Bears as I’m still curious about both teams, and one of the first missions for me during the early part of the season is to get every non-AFC North team watched once as I’ll see plenty of the Browns, Ravens and Steelers anyway.

Texans @ Bears (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Raiders @ Titans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Colts (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cheifs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Ravens @ Patriots (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Bengals @ Jets (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Late Games:

I’m genuinely surprised about the line between the Chargers and the Jaguars as between the issues the Chargers had had one the offensive line and the improved competence the Jaguars have shown, I feel like this will be a closer game than the points suggests. The consensus of lines I’m seeing online agrees with me so while I do expect the Chargers to win, I like the Jaguars to be within a touchdown. I’ve gone back and forth on the Rams and Cardinals and could have easily gone with the Cardinals at home with them being that half point over the field goal, but I have a number going the other way so I’m nervously going with the Rams.

The other game I am watching this week is the Packers at Buccaneers, where I’m backing the Packers to keep moving on from their bad opening week loss and the fact that the Tom Brady weirdness is continuing, and they are without Mike Evans this week through suspension. The pick does make me nervous but I’m really looking forward to watching both teams for the first time this season.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Falcons @ Seahawks (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

49ers @ Broncos (+1.5)

The Broncos have got off to a rough start, whilst perversely the loss of their starting quarterback Trey Lance perhaps raises the floor of the 49ers. Whilst the Broncos offence is still looking disjointed and rookie head coach Nathanial Hackett is making questionable decisions I’m going to back the 49ers on the road in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Monday Night Football

Cowboys @ Giants (-2.5)

I hated picking this game so much. I like the start the Giants have had to the season, and I think they are beginning to build something, but it is the start of a very big job given how bad they have been in recent seasons. The Cowboys are in a worse position than I was expecting this season thanks to the Dak Prescott injury, but Cooper Rush got the job done running the offence last week, ably helped by the Bengals awful start to the season and inability to cope with Micah Parsons’ pass rush. My instinct and heart is with the Giants, and I can definitely see them winning this game, but the numbers are saying Cowboys for the cover and whilst its early to have the numbers overrule my head, particularly as I’d really like to be getting three, I’m going to trust the numbers for now…

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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Competition Thursday: 2022 Week Three

22 Thursday Sep 2022

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Competition Thursday, NFL, Week 3 Picks

Having struggled to set into the early part of the season I’m actually getting a Competition Thursday post up for the first time in the 2022 season.

Dan and I kept pace with each other in week twp, whilst Russ dropped behind Dan. It is always a tricky week to get week two picks right as you try not to overreact to the week one results but also not ignore them.

Gee:Week 2:  7 – 9Overall:  17 – 15
Dan:Week 2:  7 – 9Overall:  13 – 19
RussWeek 2:  5 – 11Overall:  12 – 20

Steelers @ Browns (-5.5)

We have an AFC North bruising affair that sees the Steelers and Browns vying for an early lead in the division ahead of the weekend’s games. I saw a sign on Twitter of someone wondering if both teams could lose tonight, which I have some sympathy with as a Bengals fan, although it is well know how fond I am of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. I have to say, following a 1-1 start to the season where the Steelers have finished both games within three points of their opponent I’m surprised at the size of this line. I am interested to get a first look at the Browns, but I confess to being more than a little biased. Still, the numbers are backing my hunches and whilst I wouldn’t go as far as predicting a Steelers win, I certainly think they’ll keep the game within six.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Survivor Competition

I’m having a terrible start to the season as I was eliminated for a second time as well as seeing the Bengals fall to 0-2. Dan’s theory of backing Aaron Rodgers to continue his ownership of the Bears saw him get off the mark in week two and this week he’s backing the Ravens to beat the Patriots on the Road. I’m going for as sure a thing as I can think of this week, so I’m hoping I don’t jinx the Chiefs as they take on the winless Colts.

Current Score

Gee: 0
Dan: 1

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:     Chiefs @ Colts
Dan:    Ravens @ Patriots

Bold Prediction of the Week

After several minutes of squirming, having options refused as not qualifying according to Dan or simply not believable to me, I settled on the Jaguars to cover against the Chargers, which according to the ESPN line is to stay within eight points. I also thing that could be a sneaky good game given the Jaguars start to the season and the injuries to the offensive line of what has looked pretty good Chargers team.

2021 Week Three Picks

26 Sunday Sep 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 3 Picks

Week three had a subdued start with the Panthers beating the Texans in Houston 24-9. It was always going to be a tough job for rookie quarterback Davis Mills starting for the Texans for the first time given that he only had eleven starts in college. It wasn’t that Mills was bad, but the Panthers defense came into this game with ten sacks in two games and once again got a lot of pressure with four sacks and nine quarterback hits. Even though Mills didn’t turn the ball over and completed a tick under 68% of his passes, there was not a lot of time to get the ball down field and combine that with an anemic running attack and the nine points the Texans scored is pretty understandable. The Panthers were not exactly that spectacular either though, and I left this game feeling distinctly whelmed by Sam Darnold who does look better than he did for the Jets, but for my money still doesn’t impress and he had two fumbles from not sensing pressure and protecting the ball enough. You can’t take too much away from this game as it was a professional win, but because of that it is hard to get too much of a view on the Panthers either. They certainly are heading in the right direction, but I’m not sure about them when it comes to face the elite of the league so I think they are definitely a team you can continue to be skeptical about for now.

Early Games:

I’m still at the point of the season where I can easily come up with a reason to watch every game, but for both time and space reasons I will try to rein in my enthusiasm a little.

The divisional matchup between the Chargers and the Chiefs is particularly tasty given both teams are already a game behind the Raiders and Broncos in AFC West. The Chiefs look as scary as ever on offence when passing the ball, but are struggling when rushing the ball and on defense are rock bottom in defending against it. Now, I think that run defense ranking will be skewed by us being two games into the season and one of them being against the Ravens and their diverse running attack, but Chiefs need to improve on defense over the course of the season to get back to the Super Bowl. It’s not such a disaster for the Chargers if they fail to challenge for the playoffs given they have a young franchise quarterback in his second season and a rookie head coach, but they do need to look as if they’re building something and this should be a good early test of that, but let’s give Brandon Staley time with the Chargers before we start to worry about them.

I am looking forward to watching the Patriots host the Saints as I really want to see the matchup between Bill Belichick and his defensive staff going against the Sean Payton’s and the Saints offence. We saw Jameis Winston demonstrate last week that he hasn’t exactly left behind the low points that have been an ongoing part of an up and down career on the field in the NFL. The Saints had a difficult week two with the number of coaches not available for the game due to a Covid-19 outbreak and are still missing personnel and given the situation in New Orleans following hurricane Ida things must be tough for everyone involved. The NFL waits for no one though and I am curious as to what is going to happen in this contest.

Points from the rest:

  • Washington have not looked like the team we were expecting on defense, and with Taylor Heinicke holding the starting position at quarterback for now it will be interesting to see if they can make this game competitive against a Bills team who seem to be if not struggling, then underperforming on offence. I like the Bills to win but this line does give me pause.
  • The Bears are starting Justin Fields as Andy Dalton is out with a knee injury, but the defense of the Browns is only ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA so the Bears might have an easier time than you might initially think look at the line. It would be a surprise if they can spring the upset, but I’m not so sure about covering the line.
  • The line is big for a reason, but the Ravens look to be on a roll and so the only concern is whether there is a let down after the emotional win against the Chiefs last week. I need to watch the Lions soon to get a feel for them given they have been better than some expected, but while a cover could be possible, a win really would be a surprise.
  • The Colts look to be starting Carson Wentz despite his sprained ankles, and they really need to get a win to get their season turned around, but it looks to be a tough ask in the current circumstances. That said, while the Titans played better last week to get their first win, I don’t exactly trust them.
  • The Falcons need to find something to build around under new head coach Arthur Smith, but the first step would be to be competitive and while the Giants are ranked only ten places better than the Falcons (who are the thirty-second ranked team by DVOA), there is also a chasm between them in terms of 74.5% between them so I wouldn’t like to predict it. Still this is probably too many points for the Giants to be laying to anyone.
  • The Steelers are going to be missing TJ Watt and there is an injury report regarding Ben Roethlisberger’s pec which gives me a little hope for the Bengals. My bold prediction this week was that the Bengals are going to win, which is probably a bit much but I don’t think a cover is out of the questions.
  • The Jaguars are struggling, and the visit of the Arizona Cardinals is probably not what they need to turn things round. It’s too early to write of Urban Myer in the NFL, but he is learning the league as he tries to turn around a franchise that hasn’t won consistently for a long time. The Cardinals are looking solid in all three phases of the game so far this season, and there’s an even bigger gap between them and the Jaguars by DVOA percentage points than there is between the Falcons and Giants. The Jaguars have lost seventeen straight games going back to last season and it’s hard to see them covering this one yet alone winning, though the Cardinals don’t have the finest track record themselves so it’s possibly they take their eye off the ball, but I can’t bring myself to back the Jaguars yet.

Washington @ Bills (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Browns (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Ravens @ Lions (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Colts @ Titans (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Chargers @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Saints @ Patriots (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Falcons @ Giants (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Bengals @ Steelers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Cardinals @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Late Games:

The game of the week is right here with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travelling to LA to take on the Rams in a meeting of two unbeaten teams. This should be a chance for the Rams defense to show how good they truly are having lost players and their coordinator from last season, but you have to think that Sean McVay is feeling confident given the early returns of the addition of Matthew Stafford to his offence. I don’t want to pick this game at all, but I am really looking forward to watching it!

Points on the Rest:

  • The Broncos have made a good start to the season, even if it has been relatively easy, and the Jets are not exactly going to change that but you can only beat the teams put in front of you. If Teddy Bridgewater can keep his new found long ball success and the defense keeps holding up then the Broncos will be difficult to face all season, while the Jets are starting a rebuild and look likely to struggle all season.
  • The Dolphins have just placed Tua Tagovailoa on IR with his broken ribs and travel to face an unbeaten Raiders team. It has been a difficult start to the season for Miami and I’m curious to see if the Raiders can remain unbeaten in their push to finally get to the playoffs under Jon Gruden. Certainly, the play of Derek Carr has stopped the questions about quarterback for now, where as there seems to be no end of the speculation in Miami about their quarterback and there’s nothing Tagovailoa can do about that on IR.
  • The Seahawks lost in overtime last week and now take on a desperate 0-2 Vikings team in Minnesota. This should be a fascinating contest given Vikings slow start and the Seahawks new offence but I’m not sure which team I trust in this game. It’s too early to be a must win game, but neither team can really afford the loss given the state of their respective divisions.

Jets @ Broncos (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Dolphins @ Raiders (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Buccaneers @ Rams (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Vikings (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ 49ers (-3.5)

The Sunday night game between the Packers and the 49ers should another great contest. The Packers at least won their game against the Lions, but there are still questions about their defence and the offence has a way to go before it lives up to the levels of recent years. However, the 49ers offence is struggling, partly through the numerous running back injuries and Jimmy Garoppolo has not exactly convinced at quarterback either. The 49ers will likely be competitive as they generally are under Kyle Shanahan, but I’m not sure about them being favourites as this line suggests given their injury situation and giving Aaron Rodgers more than a field goal.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Eagles @ Cowboys (-3.5)

The Monday night clash sees the Philadelphia Eagles head to their division rivals the Dallas Cowboys coming off a loss to the 49ers where they picked up some tough injuries on the defensive line. I see potential in Jalen Hurts as a young quarterback but this week he must try to keep up with Dax Prescott and the Cowboys receivers and that seems unlikely. The Cowboys are still a work in progress on the defence and I am not ready to proclaim them the likely winners of the NFC East yet, but having been in close games to good teams I think they have too much for the Eagles unless there is a remarkable performance from someone That’s not impossible and I’m sure rookie head coach Nick Dirianni would love to make me eat my words but it’s going to take more than, ‘Beat Dallas’ t-shirts to make it happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Three Picks

27 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Covid-19, Dallas Cowboys, Drew Brees, Green Bay Packers, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Michael Thomas, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Russel Wilson, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Week 3 Picks

It’s been an tough week, but Dan will be cheered a little by the Dolphins getting their first win of the season. I know that one team will leave the match of the Bengals and Eagles with their first win of the season, but I wouldn’t like to say which. In theory there should be more 1-2 or 2-1 teams that winless or lossless teams, but I’m not sure how easy that will be to pick this week once the lines are in place.

My other concern is that we have our first positive Covid-19 test of a player since the season started, and now that games have been for long enough to be through the incubation period of the virus we shall see truly how the Covid protols hold up.

Early Games:

I think there are two stand out games in the early slate of games, although there is still plenty of interest in all games.

The Buffalo Bills host the LA Rams, which is a fascinating matchup of the Sean McVay’s rejuvenated Rams’ offence against a the Bills defense who have slipped out of the top ten by DVOA so far this season, but should provide an interesting matchup. I’m also curious to see if Josh Allen can continue his streak of throwing for over three hundred yards thanks to off-season addition of Stefon Diggs and a possible further improvement in the young quarterback’s play. I’m not looking forward to picking the game but I definitely think this is one to watch.

The other game that leaps out of the early slate is the 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders travelling to take on the New England Patriots. The Raiders offence looks promising, but as I said in my preview, the Raiders won’t be able to take advantage of this development if their defense doesn’t improve markedly and whilst a ranking of thirtieth by DVOA is technically an improvement on last season, it won’t be enough for them to be serious contenders. I think this is where they get a dose of reality as the New England Patriots may only just be top ten in overall DVOA but boy Cam Newton looked good last week in their close loss to the Seahawks. I trust Belichick and his staff to make a good enough defense by mid-season for them to be competitive and I think both teams leave this game with a 2-1 record.

Other things of interest:

  • I am curious to see if the Atlanta Falcons get their season turned around and it feels to me more likely that the Falcons will get their first win than both team’s current streak continues. That said, the Bears top ten defense might contain the Falcons offence, whilst the questions around Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will not be answered by his performance against the Falcons’s twenty-eighth ranked defense.
  • The Eagles may well get their first win this season, but asking them to win by a clear touchdown against a team that has kept both games within a touchdown as Joe Burrow impresses early.
  • The Browns got a good win last week, but this is another line where I’m not sure it’s really justified. The Washington Football Team are not good, but whilst I only saw a quarter of the Cardinal’s offence going against the Football Team’s defense, I was impressed with what I saw from the Cardinals and Washington’s defence is ranked first by DVOA. I was also impressed by what the Browns did last week, but I think the Browns are going to have to prove it to me before I start picking them with this kind of line.
  • This might be a trap, but with a defense that is ranked twentieth by DVOA and an offence that seems to have real problems I am really not sure that the Vikings can turn it round. The Titans may have been in two close games, but they have won them both and I have a feeling they will run out close winners. However, there are both numbers and record reasons to think that the Vikings might do something in this game, if nothing else because the question is are the Titans really good enough to start the season 3-0. I’m really not sure.
  • The 49ers are having all kinds of injury problems and still are favourites to beat the New York Giants. Even though they will be missing Saquon Barkley I like the Giants to keep this one closer than five points at home.
  • I have a feeling the Texans might just be bad this season. The offence is struggling without DeAndre Hopkins and the defence hasn’t inspired. I think the depth the roster has lost through trading away draft picks is hurting this team and that GM Bill O’Brien has let down coach Bill O’Brien. It’s not impossible that the Steelers will have a let down this game, but at home I like them to win and cover a line where the half point scares, except the consensus is another half point higher. I would stay away from this game if I could but I can’t.

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Rams @ Bills (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Bengals @ Eagles (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Washington @ Browns (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Titans @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Raiders @ Patriots (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Late Games:

There’s several interest contests in the late games this Sunday, but the pick has to the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Seattle Seahawks. This is going to see two teams powered by their offence do battle and it could well be this game is decided by who has the ball last. The interesting thing is that the disparity between offence and defense is actually biggest for the Seahawks, but Russel Wilson is playing so well that I’m confident that this will be a great game, but very possibly another close one for the Cowboys and I very much doubt that the best special teams in the league by DVOA through week two will gift them anything on special teams like the Falcons did last Sunday.

Notes from the other late games:

  • The Jests are such a mess that this line is massive, and is actually higher by consensus, which means there could be value in picking the Colts. I’m really not sure where to go in this game as although I expect the Colts to win, are they going to be dominant for a second week in a row?
  • The Panthers are still looking for their first win of the season, but with the Chargers giving the Chiefs a tough game last week despite being forced last minute to start rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. However, the injuries are still piling up for the Chargers again so whilst I like them to win this game, I think the Panthers could well keep this one close.
  • The Bucs are my survivor pick of the week, based on the injuries that the Broncos currently have and chasm between them by overall DVOA. The Broncos have played tougher than I expected, but wile I think the Bucs will win this game the line worries me. I want to stay away but as I can’t I’m going to grab the points at one of the few places where there is still a definite home field advantage, or at least early in the season.
  • I’ve seen a quarter of one game of the Cardinals offence so I really can’t draw any firm conclusions, but I did lke what I saw and it does feel like the Cardinals have enough to beat a Lions team who seem to be the same again under Matt Patricia. I will be curious to see if the Lions can be more competitive this week.

Jets @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Panthers @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Broncos (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Cardinals (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ Saints (-3.5)

I think I have to say that I was wrong about the Packers. I thought they were prime candidates for regression after last season and the lack of receivers they added to the offence, but they have come out and scored forty points each week and looked dominant against the Lions in week two. There are questions surrounding the Saints at the moment and Drew Brees in particular. This could well be the beginning of the end for the forty-one year old quarterback, but any offence is going to miss a piece as important as Michael Thomas is to the Saints and so whilst I don’t think it is time for them to panic yet, the extra half point has me leaning the other way as without the noise of their home fans I expect the Saints to struggle or possibly even lose to the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Monday Night Football

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5)

This might be the matchup of the regular season yet alone the week. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bit of scare last week against the Chargers, but like most good teams found a way to win and certainly a team with Patrick Mahomes always has a chance. However, the Baltimore Ravens are top five by DVOA in all three phases of the game and their offence is coming off a week that saw them put up thirty-three points against the number one ranked defence in the league by DVOA. I also think that the Ravens’ strength in running the ball matches up well with the Chiefs’ defensive liability against the run (twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA) so whilst the Chiefs offence might well be explosive enough to keep them in the contest, I fancy the Ravens to win this one, and could do so well.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Three Picks

22 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 3 Picks

I am really up against the clock this week thanks to life so this is going to be a by the seat of my pants week, but first the trivia question:

‘Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?’

I’m really struggling on this one, so I’m going to take a wild stab at the oldest running back I can remember for the Ravens, which is Jamal Lewis, but I’m not at all sure this is early enough.

As for a theme, all I can think of is expansion teams with the Dolphins and Ravens in the last two weeks and the moving Cardinals from week one, but I’m not sure it is true.

‘Tough one again but I’m basically thinking back to who were the big running backs when I first started playing Madden games! I’m not 100% sure on this because I’m concerned I’ve got my timelines wrong, but I THINK Priest Holmes was their RB at the time – went on to be a bit legendary for Kansas City, but I think 1998 was before he moved there, so that’s my guess!

In terms of the theme, I’m thinking it could be people/teams who went on to do bigger and better things in a different places… probably wrong but it’s a guess!’

Falcons @ Colts (-2.5)

I don’t like this line at all, but I don’t trust the Falcons yet and the Colts have a solid team if their kicker could just find his form.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Bengals @ Bills (-6.5)

Will the real Bengals please stand up? The Bills have beaten two poor teams and this is their home opener, I’m going to grab the points and hope the Bengals prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Dolphins @ Cowboys (-21.5)

I can’t believe I’m doing this but with a young quarterback on the road against this team I’m going to grab the Cowboys as the #FishTank sets new records for awful football.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Broncos @ Packers (-7.5)

The Broncos have not looked good and the Packers have failed to convince but this line is a little too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Lions @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Lions have not been good but are undefeated and play a Philadelphia team struggling with injury and whilst I feel the Eagles win, this is too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Ravens @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Game of the day that pits two of the most exciting offences of the year against each other and we get to see how good the Ravens defence is. I could regret this given the Arrowhead home field advantage but again too many points for me,

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Raiders @ Vikings (-7.5)

The Vikings are playing ball control offence and relying on their defence but are going against a Raiders team who have been competitive and better teams than the Raiders have had the Chiefs go off against them so I think this might be close than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Jets @ Patriots (-22.5)

This line somehow is even larger than the Dolphins, but with the Jets on the road with a practice squad quarterback starting I’m going to ignore the number and hope that Patriots do the impossible, which has happened frighteningly often this decade.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Giants @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

I like the Buccaneers to win this game as Todd Bowles has done okay with the defence, they are rested and I like Bruce Arians but this is too many points, even if they are welcoming a poor Giants team starting Daniel Jones in his first game.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Panthers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I HATE this line as with Cam Newton sitting who knows what the Panthers will do whilst the Cardinals have looked frisky losers so far but getting points at home I am going grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Cardinals

Saints @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Saints are starting Teddy Bridgewater on the road in Seattle but with a week to prepare I’m sure Sean Payton can make them competitive but the Seahawks are good and I think they will run out winner. However, I’m not brave enough to pick them to win by six

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Steelers @ 49ers (-6.5)

The Steelers are clearly confident in Mason Rudolph given that they traded away a first-round draft pick for a defensive back last week, but it could be that the 49ers are genuinely good or at least competitive. I don’t like this line at all so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Texans @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers have injuries mounting up but it’s hard to have much faith in the Texans yet both of their games have been decided by less that a field goal so let’s see if the trend continues.

Gee’s Pick:        Texans
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Rams @ Browns (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns have not convinced at all this season, whilst the Rams have won without firing on all cylinders so I’m making this pick based entirely on my faith in the coaching staffs, despite that failing me on Thursday night.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Bears @ Washington (+4.5)

This is not exactly an exciting Monday night game in Washington who have failed to inspire whilst the Bears have failed to get a passing touchdown out of Mitchell Trubisky. This could be the team to get a breakout performance and the Bears defence is formidable, but on the results so far I’m not brave enough to call a Bears win by five.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Bears

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week 3

19 Thursday Sep 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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The week two games were not kind to me in terms of picks or results, and Dan’s Dad has returned to the top of the group to take a slender lead, so here are the numbers ahead of tonight’s game and the trivia question.

Dan’s Dad:       Week    8-8                  Overall   17-15
Gee:                Week    6-10                Overall   16-16
Dan:                Week    7-9                  Overall   15-17

Titans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

Both teams are coming off close losses in week two with the Jaguars defence keeping them in the hunt during rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew’s first start but ultimately losing and the Tennessee Titans lost to the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans’ loss actually could have been by more if the Colts’ Adam Vinatieri hadn’t had a horrible kicking game and this puts me in a conundrum. The Titans got a really strong win week one and are comfortably the better team in DVOA as well as ranking better in offence and defence. The problem is that their offence is struggling, in part because Marcus Mariotta’s reluctance to throw the ball down field and they are on the road.

My Thursday night rule didn’t help me at all last week and I’m wondering if a regular starting quarterback (albeit a troubled one) is enough of an advantage when combined with a better coached team to get the two point win needed to cover. It’s that final point that swayed me, for all that the talk of trades for Jalen Ramsey and dischord on the side lines might be slightly over played – but I’m going to back the more consistent team given they only need a field goal to win.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Week 3 Trivia

‘Well week 2 is in the can, normal service has been restored in the Picks and the trivia braces itself for a week in which the theme that is running may be identified.

But you will remember that I asked:

On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?

Both Gee and Dan made valid attempts and I like Gee rightly identifying that it could be an expansion team. Dan went for a ‘hunting’ option and picked the Bears. However, Gee forgets that I am well trained in the art of the double-bluff so maybe I will become Dan’s Devious Dad when I tell you that it was Don Schula’s Dolphins who actually won a Monday night game on November 30.

So that means no points on either side this week. In addition, the theme was also left on the shelf – maybe this week!

Right, onto Week 3 the question is:

Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?

Let’s see what that brings – again there are 2 points on offer for this one.’

2018 Week Three Picks

23 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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So after the Browns finally get a win our attention turns to the rest of the week three slate, and I can begin to panic that we’re nearly at the quarter pole of the season already! First the minor matter of the trivia question, which this week is:

‘Tell me, which is the newest of the NFL Stadiums (in the Lower-48) and when did it open?’

I believe this is the Mercedes-Benz stadium of the Atlanta Falcons that was opened last year and as seems traditional is hosting the Super Bowl this year.

‘I’ll be taking my first point of the year this week – the answer is the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, which opened in 2017!’

Saints @ Falcons (-3.5)

I am really interested in this game as two teams who haven’t looked fully together take each other on. The Atlanta Falcons recovered from their opening week loss to get a solid win against the Carolina Panthers but both their offence and defence are ranked twenty-third in the league by DVOA and another of their starters was put on IR for the season when their best offensive guard Andy Levitre tore a tricep. This week they host a Saints team whose offence is characteristically top ten but whose defence has taking a big step back from last year’s iteration that made a big jump. A team’s defence is often more volatile than their offence from year to year and those units who make a big jump often take a step back the following year. Still, given how the Falcons have played and the fact that the clear best unit in the game is the Saints offence I’m backing them to at least cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bills @ Vikings (-16.5)

So this is an easy game to predict but a slightly trickier one to call. The Buffalo Bills have got off to a horrid start to this season and look to be in a competition with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst team in the league. Following the logic from last week that I failed to remember, it is more likely for a team to go 2-1 or 1-2 than lose or win all their games but this week the Bills are travelling to Minnesota to face the Vikings in their newish stadium that has given them a distinct home advantage since it opened in 2016. The question is can the Vikings repeat the kind of win the Ravens had over the Bills in week one and given the chasm between the teams and where this game is being played I’m going to nervously back the Vikings to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bengals @ Panthers (-2.5)

Of course I am nervous about this game as the Cincinnati Bengals head back out on the road for the second of the three road games they have to start the season. This week they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team where Cam Newton seems to have taken to Norv Turner as his coordinator but the defence is an uncharacteristic twenty-fourth rank by DVOA. The worry for everyone I’ve heard talking about this game is that second year running back Joe Mixon is out having had a scope on his knee but I am starting to have faith in the rebuilt offensive line and what Bill Lazor is doing on offence. I think that the Bengals can keep this close but I’d feel a lot happier if the line was -3 rather than -2.5 yet I’m still going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Ravens (-4.5)

The Denver Broncos head out on the road for the first time this season and have the added difficulty of traveling to Baltimore to face a rested Ravens teams. The Broncos offence has been helped by the addition of Case Keenum and rookie running backs Royce Freeman and Phillip Freemand whilst their defence has done a job even if it is currently ranked sixteenth by DVOA. However, they have had the advantage of opening the season at highest stadium in the league whilst most teams get their legs under them after pre-season so this will be a real test of how far this team has come. The Raven’s defence is top five by DVOA and their offence looks to have more options amongst the skills players although I’m not sure the packages that have been put in for Lamar Jackson are really helping. The Broncos have eeked out two wins at home and could keep this one close but I’m not sure they will on the road but can the Ravens win by five. I’m once again going to grab the points as I don’t feel that strongly about these teams yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Packers @ Washington (+2.5)

The Green Bay Packers travel to Washington this week and frankly if I had the option to stay away I would as so much rides on the injured knee of Aaron Rodgers. He played well enough to win last week and the Packers offence looks good with him but the drop off if DeShone Kizer has to play is pretty startling. Their defence rank of twentieth by DVOA actually matches where they finished last season but we know that the big driver for the Packers is Rodgers. Washington fell back to earth with a bump last week as the Colts beat them in their home opener. I don’t trust Washington and I can’t hang my hat on the Packers given the injury to Rodgers.. This game feels like it could get ugly quickly, but having lost to the Colts I can’t quite bring myself to back Washington in this game although that would change if Rodgers can’t go.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Titans @ Jaguars (-7.5)

The Tennessee Titans managed to get a win last week with Blain Gabbert at quarterback but facing a Texans team with a rocky start is a very different prospect to going on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars and their fearsome defence. It looks like Gabbert will likely start again this week and this probably doesn’t bode well. I liked the aggressiveness the Jaguars’ offence played with last week and I would hope they keep that when Leonard Fournette returns from his hamstring injury and that they don’t automatically return to grinding out yards on the ground. I think this is a tough spot for the Titans even with some key Jaguar players being listed as questionable and that’s enough for me to lay this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Colts @ Eagles (-6.5)

So this is a really awkward game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have looked pretty good so far this season with new head coach seeming to do well with Andrew Luck and a couple of promising break outs on the defence. They travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who have a number of injuries but are getting Carson Wentz back from injury and he looked like the league MVP last year before he was lost. The Eagles defence is top ten by DVOA but the offence has struggled and the big question for me is will the skills players and the injuries at running back allow Wentz to look his best. The worry for me with this pick is the points and frankly there are too many unknowns with the Eagles for me to back them to win by seven even if I could regret this as I do think the Eagles are more likely to win this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

49ers @ Chiefs (-6.5)

One of the most impressive things about the Chiefs 2-0 start is that they have managed to get themselves ranked the top offence by DVOA playing on the road and this week’s home opener sees them welcome a San Francisco 49ers team who haven’t quite lived up to the promise many expected in the pre-season. The Chiefs have been a lot of fun to watch given that they’ve paired the top rated offence in the league with the worst ranked defence. The offence hasn’t gelled for the 49ers yet this season whilst the defence has improved. This is quite a lot of points for a team to cover who has the worst defence in the league by DVOA but the Chiefs have a good home advantage and the crowd is likely to hugely excited given the play of the offence and so I’m going to back the Chiefs to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Raiders @ Dolphins (-3.5)

The Oakland Raiders have got off to a tough start under Jon Gruden and despite improving last week are still yet to have a win and face a second road game as they travel to face an unbeaten Miami Dolphins team. I’m still not convinced by the Raiders as whilst the offence looked better last week, the defence is still struggling, is currently ranked twenty-seventh and frankly I’m not that convinced by Gruden as a coach. The Dolphins are a tricky team to gauge at home but I think Adam Gase is a good coach and it looks like he has more of the team he wants this season while Tannehill is currently managing the offence well. The extra half point should tempt me into making the opposite play here but the seventeen places between them by overall DVOA with Gruden on the road means I’ll be joining Dan in his Dolphins optimism this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Giants @ Texans (-5.5)

One of these 0-2 teams have to win and the line would indicate that one of these teams is a much more likely candidate. The DVOA rankings would agree with the Houston Texans ranked sixteen places higher and having a top ten defence but they also have problems at offensive tackles and a young quarterback. That said they have also been on the road for their first two games and welcome a Giants team whose offence hasn’t recovered despite getting Odell Beckham back from injury and adding the talented Saquon Barkley at running back as well as Nate Solder at left tackle. I think the Giants made a mistake by not drafting a quarterback as Eli Manning has not looked better so far and has been in decline for several seasons now. The line is what worries me though as this feels like too many points but I do not trust the Giants either and in the end that’s how I’m going to go.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chargers @ Rams (-6.5)

The battle of LA see the Chargers travel to the Coliseum to face a Rams team who have yet to let a team get closer than twenty points to them. The Chargers should manage that but having got back to winning ways last week against the Bills last week can they make this game competitive? They would stand a better chance if they had Joey Bosa but his foot injury looks to have him out for a little while yet and whilst their offence is ranked third by DVOA their defence is ranked seventeenth and the Rams are one of those teams who never let up on offence. I’d like to think this will be competitive and later in the season I think it would be but with where these teams are at right this second I think they Rams continue their strong start.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Chicago Bears got their first win last week as Khalil Mack continues to be a one man wrecking crew and Matt Nagy coaxes offensive production out of a talented group of skills players but a young quarterback in Mitchel Trubisky who seems to look good early with the scripted plays but whose instinct too often is to tuck the ball and run. This week however they travel to face a Cardinals team who have offered very little so far this season. They have struggled to move the ball on offence and their defence has not been much better, leaving them ranked thirty-first overall by DVOA. It seems strange to be laying this number of points on the road, but there still aren’t enough for me to back the Cardinals in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are 0-2 for what I would have said was the first time in a number of years, but they actually started the 2015 season also losing two road games. I’m not sure they’ll be able to finish 10-6 like they did then but they might be more competitive at CenturyLink Field than they have been on the road. The problem is that the offence has not looked good under new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and this has led Russell Wilson to a ranking of thirtieth in passing by DVOA. This week they host a Dallas Cowboys team who got their first win of the season last week but whose offence is not exactly looking great despite their ranking of eleventh by DVOA but that combined with a defensive ranking of thirteenth means they shouldn’t be overlooked. However, I find it hard to see them travelling well as Seattle is a notoriously difficult place to play and the Seahawks will be desperate to get back to winning ways. I have a lot more faith in Pete Carroll and so I’m backing the Seahawks to get back to winning ways rather than fall to 0-3.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Patriots @ Lions (+6.5)

It’s not exactly unusual for the New England Patriots to have a loss or two early in the season as Bill Belichick very much aims to have his team peaking at the end of the season and there is no shame in losing to the Jaguars these days. That said there must be some concern with the offence given that they have traded a fifth round pick to the Browns for Josh Gordon, who is expected to play in a limited fashion this week. The Patriots travel to Detroit to face a winless Lions team and their old defensive coordinator and new head coach Matt Patricia. The Lions looked better last week but still lost to the 49ers and so it’s hard to see a rookie head coach get his first win against Belichick, particularly as Belichick’s coaching tree has not exactly had a great track record outside of New England. This feels like a lot of points but I haven’t seen enough of the Lions to get the way they played in pre-season and week one out of my head so whilst I could regret this, I’m backing the Patriots to get back to winning ways as they seldom lose two games in a row (I didn’t find a time since 2013).

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Steelers @ Bucaneers (+1.5)

The Monday night game sees a winless Pittsburgh Steelers team travel to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team whose offence is rolling at second in the league by DVOA but whose defence is thirty-first so they are basically the Chiefs mark two. I absolutely did not see this coming but one of the big difference this year is that Todd Monken is calling plays rather than head coach Dirk Koetter and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been outstanding in deputising for the suspended Jameis Winston. I don’t know if they can keep this rolling but this looks to be a great game as the Steelers desperately need to get their season back on track. There is no sign of Le’Veon Bell ending his holdout and having disciplined Antonio Brown for not reporting on Monday the Steelers will hope that they can get their first win of the season. The question is whether they can heal the locker room and more importantly improve a defence that is currently ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. I’m not sure that this is the game to turn it round, but equally I find it hard to believe the Steelers will go into week four without a win and I can’t quite bring myself to pick it even if it definitely could happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Week 3 Picks

24 Sunday Sep 2017

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Ravens @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The weekend’s games start with the first London game, where the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Baltimore Ravens at Wembley, and it is a tricky game for me to pick this week. The Jaguars followed up their opening game win with a loss to the Tennessee Titans, and the problems with having such a one dimensional offence showed themselves, particularly having lost receiver Allen Robinson for the season to an ACL injury. The problem for me is that the Raven also had a big loss when guard Marshal Yonder was lost for the season with an ankle fracture. The Raven’s offensive balance is why they’ve looked better this year and losing one of the best guards could really hurt their ability to run the ball.

In the last two seasons the Jaguars have won their London game, and with that bit more practice at travelling I’m not saying they will win, but I do feel with two good defences this could be a closer game than you might first think and I’m picking the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Falcons @ Lions (+2.5)

This should be a cracking game, with two unbeaten teams meeting. The Atlanta Falcons offence looked better in their home opener last week, and they travel to face a Detroit Lions team who keep finding a way to win. I don’t have a strong lean either way in this one, but in a close game if I’m getting points as a home team then I am going to grab them and look forward to watching the game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Broncos @ Bills (+3.5)

This looks to be a surprisingly good game despite the Buffalo Bills offseason rebuilding, as it looks like new head coach Sean McDermott has got his team playing for him and the defence looks good already. I have also been impressed with the Denver Broncos’ start to the season, but in what could be a closer game than you might expect I’m again going to grab points for a home team.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Steelers @ Bears (+7.5)

I want to pick the Chicago Bears in this one. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a nasty habit of playing down to their opponents and the Bears defence has looked promising at times, but the Steelers’ offence looks like it is coming together and I just think they have too much for the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Browns @ Colts (+0.5)

I don’t remember the last time the Cleveland Browns were favoured in a game, yet alone on the road, but the Indianapolis Colts gave a more credible effort last week and could have beaten the Arizona Cardinals. The Browns still haven’t got Myles Garrett to play a regular season game, whilst losing receiver Corey Coleman to broken hand for the second season in a row hurts. I’m really not sure where to go in this one, but I’ll stick to my faith in the Browns and their coach for now, but I am curious about how this game will play out.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Dolphins @ Jets (+6.5)

The Miami Dolphins got off to a winning start, and this week and face a New York Jets team who have shown very little of anything. We thought going into the season that the Jets were going to be bad, but it is still shocking to see how uncompetitive they have been, and I don’t see anything here to stop me from picking the Dolphins to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Vikings (-2.5)

In a league where increasingly home field advantage is being reduced, the Minnesota Vikings seem to have bucked the trend with their noisy new stadium. Add to this a really good defence and this should be a decided advantage, but with quarterback Sam Bradford looking like he will miss a second week due to a knee problem I will back the Tampa Buccaneers on the road. Their defence looks equally scary, and with young quarterback Jameis Winston continuing his development, I feel like the Vikings would need Bradford to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Texans @ Patriots (-13.5)

The New England Patriots beat the Houston Texans 27-0 last season whilst starting Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Patriots got back on track with an easy win last week, although they did pick up more injuries top pass catchers. However, the Texans did not exactly look great against the Bengals last week and despite being slightly nervous about the line, I think the Patriots will cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Saints @ Panthers (-6.5)

The Carolina Panthers have needed their defence to play as well as it has because their offence has not looked good so far this season. The New Orleans Saints defence might be just what the doctor ordered, especially with them rotating through defensive linemen trying to find something that works, but the loss of Cam Newton’s safest receiver in tight end Greg Olson could really hurt them. I’m not sure that the Saints will win, especially on the road, but I think this could be a closer game than this line suggest. I’m nervously backing the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Giants @ Eagles (-5.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles have got off to a solid start to the season, and welcome a New York Giants team who have been struggling on offence. It’s not just that Odell Beckham has been fighting an ankle injury, but the offensive line has been dire in pass protection and the tackles haven’t been given scheme help. It is not necessarily surprising that the Giants’ defence has taken a bit of a step back from last year’s improvement, but despite it being more likely for a team to go 1-2 rather than 0-3, I see nothing in this game that would give a Giants’ fan hope. I think right now the Eagles are a better a team, watch this game come back to bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Seahawks @ Titans (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks defence continues to be really good, but their offensive line also continues to make Russell Wilson run for his life. The Tennessee Titans have a pair of bookend tackles that should allow their offense to function despite the Seahawks’ scary front seven, and I fancy them to get the win at home against a Seahawks team who are designed to peak later in the season.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Bengals  @ Packers (-9.5)

The Green Bay Packers struggled last week against the Atlanta Falcons missing both their starting tackles on offense, and with their defence looking more fragile. This week they welcome a struggling Cincinnati Bengals team who have yet to score a touchdown, which is why they have a new offensive co-ordinator. I don’t hold out much hope of a dramatic turn around, but given the strength of the Bengal’s defence this year, and that it looks like the Packer’s o-line could still be in flux, I do fancy the Bengals to cover this big line even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3.5)

The LA Chargers have so far managed to lose two close games, but this week they welcome a Kansas City Chiefs team who have started the year on fire. The Chargers have not exactly built a big following in LA, and this game feels like it will only go one way. You never know until the game is played, but with the Chiefs explosive offence and stout defence I don’t think they will have a problem covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Washington (+3.5)

So Jay Gruden did the unexpected and kept his Washington team running the football last week as they travelled to LA and beat the Rams. However, the Oakland Raiders are a totally different proposition having picked up from last year and look fearsome. The points do give me a slight pause, but the Raiders feel like they are on a roll and I don’t think Washington have the offence to keep up.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Cowboys @ Cardinals (+3.5)

This week’s games are closed out on Monday night by a struggling Arizona Cardinals team hosting the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys got shut down last week in Denver, with the passing game not really working and Ezekiel Elliot getting completely stuffed in the running game. This week they travel to Arizona, who have their own running problems with running back David Johnson out with a wrist injury. The Cowboys are not a team that inspire much confidence in me, but neither are the Cardinals at the moment, and as reluctant as I am to back the Cowboys, if you’re a team who struggles to beat the Colts then I can’t back you to cover this line against the Cowboys who will be looking to bounce back from a tough loss.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Week 3 Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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I feel like the real trick with this week’s picks is not to over react and have all the teams who are either 2-0 or 0-2 continuing their winning or losing streak, as the more common result is likely to be a first win or loss, but whether I stick to that as I go through each game individually remains to be seen.

Cardinals @ Bills(+4.5)

The first game already shows the problem with my opening paragraph as the Bill have simply been bad, and given the difficulties they had with pass defence, I can’t see them being effective at slowing down the Cardinals offence and Bruce Arian’s vertical attack, nor being able to move the ball consistently on an opportunistic defence and so I see this as being a fairly straight forward win for the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Broncos @ Bengals (-2.5)

The season doesn’t get any easier for the Bengals as their first home game of the season sees them welcome the Super Bowl champions. That said, whilst the Broncos defence has been impressive, I’m not sure the Broncos have seen a defence of the standard of the Bengals, and with an inexperienced Trevor Siemian under centre on the road I’m backing the Bengals to get back to a winning record.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5)

Things just keep going from bad to worse for the Browns, and apart from the injuries to their quarterbacks, promising rookie receiver Cory Coleman broke his hand in practice, proving yet again that the Browns can’t have nice things. This line is somewhat eye watering, but with the Dolphins at the home and having mounted a comeback in the second half against the Patriots, I think that not only are they the more likely to get the first win for either team, but that they may well cover this spread as well.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This game gives me real pause, as all is not well with the Packers so far, with similar problems surfacing on offence as they faced last year. However, I think in their opening game at Lambeau Field they will get back to winning ways, but this is a lot of points. The injuries in the Lions’ defence worry me and although their offence has looked good so far this year, I am not sure about them going against a Packers defence that has impressed me despite the problems against the pass. I keep changing my mind on this one, but I think it could be a get right game for the Packers that in the end gets them the cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Raiders @ Titans (-1.5)

The Raiders are still a very up and down team with their offence currently ranked number one in the NFL by DVOA and the defence ranked thirty-second. They are travelling to a Titans team who got an unlikely win against a Lions team who had three touchdowns waved off for penalties. I’m not sold on the Titans as being good, but the Raiders don’t travel well either. I’m really not sure which way to go, but with head coach Jack Del Rio taking a bigger hand in the defence this week I’m nervously backing the Raiders on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (-6.5)

I think that the Panthers will run out winners in this game, but given how ineffective Adrian Peterson had been this season, I’m not sure how badly his loss will hurt a new look Vikings offence who still need to fix their offensive line issues. The Panthers defence are not really a team to do this against, but the Vikings defence will likely keep them in the game and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Washington @ Giants (-4.5)

I’m sort of going against my plan of picking here, but DC Grudens are not functioning well on offence, with quarterback Kirk Cousins playing inconsistently, and couple this with a defence that is not playing that well and I don’t see a lot of hope. The Giants may have built their defence through free agency, but it seems to be working and with a passing attack that seems a lot more balanced than last year, I think Eli Manning has the options to get the ball to receivers no matter what is going on between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Ravens @ Jaguars (+0.5)

The Ravens have got off to a good start to the season, but are quietly not a great road team under John Harbaugh who gave up twenty points to the Browns last week. They face a desperate Jaguars team down in Jacksonville, who will already be aware of how seldom 0-2 teams get to the playoffs and so if they are to rescue their season they have to win this game, even if it is early in the season for must win games.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Rams @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

The Rams are 1-1 despite not scoring a touchdown on offence yet this season. This week they travel down to Tampa Bay, where I expect Jameis Winston to bounce back from his terrible performance last week. I really don’t trust the Rams, and I think this is a game where they could be exposed.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

It is just possible that the Seahawks have a fatal flaw thanks to the combination of Marshawn Lynch retiring and the continued awfulness of their offensive line. I don’t exactly see them loosing this game, but I am not at all convinced that they will run out ten point winners over anyone. The 49ers are playing hard for Chip Kelly, and I see him keeping this one competitive even on another tough road trip.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Chargers @ Colts (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game. The Chargers are on the road in Indianapolis having lost Danny Woodhead last week after losing Keenan Allen in week one. Their defence is playing better than it was last year, but the injury bug keeps biting this team. The Colts have looked okay offensively thanks to Andrew Luck looking more like himself, but the offensive line still isn’t that great and they’ve now lost Dante Moncrief to a fractured shoulder blade. They have also struggled once more in rush defence. I’m reluctantly backing the Colts at home as it is hard to see a team with a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck going 0-3, but that’s not to say it won’t happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jets @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are not quite right on defence, and their offence fell short against a Texans’ defence that were looking very good until they played the Patriots on Thursday. I trust Andy Reid but I think they might have too many injuries at similar positions. That said, Arrowhead Stadium is a famously difficult place to visit and the Jets have injury concerns of their own in their very deep receiver group. I’m really not sure which way this could go, but I’m going to back the Jets as from what I have seen I believe that they are the better team even if this is a difficult spot.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Steelers @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Eagles have got off to a surprisingly good start with rookie Carson Wentz playing very well, but the Steelers are a completely different level of team to the Browns or Bears and so I think the Steelers run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Bears @ Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bears are really struggling, and with the number of injuries piling up to go alongside the problems they were already having even before Jay Cutler hurt his thumb, I think they are in for a long game against the Cowboys in Dallas. The line makes me slightly nervous, but at the end of the day I think the Cowboys are simply better equipped to win this game by a fair margin.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Falcons @ Saints (-3.5)

I really don’t have a handle on the Falcons, who are coming off a road win in Oakland to face a Saints team who at least managed to stop the Giants’ offence from running rampant last week. The problem for me is that I don’t have great hand on the Saints either, but their defence still scares me, and with the extra half point I’m going to pick the Falcons to cover, but I’m really not very confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

22 Thursday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Adrian Peterson, Bill Belichick, Carson Wentz, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garopollo, Josh McDaniels, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Sam Bradford, Seattle Seahawks, Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, Week 3 Picks

I won’t go into the reasons why me usual routine has been turned around this week, but it does remind of the various quotes regarding what happens to plans when they run into reality.

The NFL is a very real reminder of this, with various teams already facing very different situations than they expected. Of course, for the Vikings the plan didn’t even survive the pre-season, with Teddy Bridgewater going down with his horrible knee injury in practice. This not only affected the Vikings, but Carson Wentz is now starting and surprising everyone with the quality of his play for the Eagles after Philidelphia traded the expected starter Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Both teams are now 2-0, with Bradford surprising everyone with his performance against Green Bay on Sunday as the Vikings eked out a win despite losing Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus that could keep him out until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Browns who traded down with the Eagles, allowing the team from Philadelphia to select Wentz are facing questions about what they didn’t like about the quarterback. If the Browns are the ones that are getting asked the questions now having lost two starting quarterbacks in the first two weeks, there could be some awkward questions for the Rams who picked Jared Goff instead of Wentz. With Goff failing to even dress in week one, and the offence still not having scored a touchdown this season, you can see people beginning to wonder about the decision even if the questioning does seem to have been delayed by the win the Rams ground out against the Seahawks on Sunday.

These days everybody wants to declare the winners and losers as soon as possible, despite the fact things are often far more complex than they seen. Planning is important, but rarely do even the most basic plans survive when you put them into action.

The thing we need in life to counter this is adaptability and resilience. The mental toughness to take what is thrown at you is often the difference between trying to do something, and the perseverance to make it a success.

The actual truth is that we don’t know how either Goff or Wentz’s actual careers will go, two games of their rookie season is simply not a big enough sample size, and the thing I like about the way the Rams holding out Goff is that if he’s not ready he shouldn’t just be thrown in. Because we picked him first is a really bad reason to start a quarterback. If you have a player you hope will play of a decade, it doesn’t make sense to play them early to appease the matter of winning now, or at least it doesn’t if there is a real risk that you could hurt the development of the player.

Sometimes circumstances don’t allow for this. Tonight the New England Patriots will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett thanks to a combination of Tom Brady’s four game suspension and Jimmy Garopollo spraining his throwing shoulder during last week’s win against the Miami Dolphins. I am looking forward to seeing how Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick scheme an offence in only three days practice for a third round draft pick who was their third string quarterback going into the season.

For some this would be too much, and excuse for a team to lose a game, but somehow I think that at least part of the coaches will be relishing the challenge.

You trust that he’ll get good coaching but it’s a hell of a task and there simply could be not enough time, which leads me to tonight’s pick:

Texans @ Patriots (-0.5)

It turns out that apart from lots of points, the other thing that will get me to pick against the Patriots is being down to their third string quarterback with only three days to prepare. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t win tonight, but it is a big ask and not one I’m prepared to pick as the most likely to happen. Watch Bill Belichick prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:           Texans
Dan’s Pick:           Texans

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