Monthly Archives: August 2014

NFL Preseason: The Quaterback Question

28 Thursday Aug 2014

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Right now I feel like a second string corner trying to make the roster on special teams play and limited snaps in the defence. Whilst I’m on top of things in terms of following news, I have not watched as many games as I would have like to and we’re already getting into the first wave of cuts, the third week dress rehearsal games are over, but never the less I shall make the most of the reps that have been given to me. Torturous metaphor now over…

I’m writing about a big focus in football, although one that I’m not as obsessed with as most, namely quarterbacks. Everybody tends to agree that the quarterback is the most important player on a football team, and I am no different. But people do seem to give too much praise to a quarterback when the team wins and too much blame when the team loses. There’s no guaranteed way to find a quarterback, if we look at three of the marquee QBs in the league, Peyton Manning was the archetypal first pick of the draft, Drew Brees was picked at the start of the second round (overall 32), and famously Tom Brady was picked in the sixth round as the 199th player selected. It is easier to pick one early, but you don’t have to and last years Super Bowl winner was found in the third round. The trick is not just to pick the right player, but to develop them as well because apart from the tangibles of arm strength and size, a quarterback needs the study habits, familiarity with the offence, and the ability to find a way to be successful in the NFL. He has to anticipate what the defence the is doing, throw the ball through and incredibly tight window to a receiver who is not there yet and if he is just a beat slow, the ball gets intercepted and possible returned for points.

This preseason we’ve seen a couple of different approaches by teams trying to solve their quarterback conundrums. The Cleveland Browns took the step of picking the incredibly popular college star Johnny Manziel and announced that there was camp competition with their existing player Brian Hoyer. The Jaguars also picked a first round quarterback in Blake Bortles and immediately announced that he was going to sit behind veteran Chad Henne for the year.

I’m not one for absolutism, and whilst I agree with the idea that there is so much to learn that it is a good idea for a rookie QB to sit for a while, I’m not going to state that they should sit for a preset amount of time. When they’re ready they are ready, but the different approaches above highlight what can go wrong if a team doesn’t handle its quarterback situation well.

I don’t follow college football as there is only so much time in the world, I don’t really get the conference system, and there’s enough ethical questions around paying NFL players to endanger their long term health, without being fanatical about a feeder league that makes it a point of pride that their players aren’t paid. But even I had heard about some of Manziel antics in college, both on the field and off it. I dread to think how many words have been written about his offseason and I don’t want to go into it again in great detail, but the thing that’s interesting to me is this.

I don’t know how I would have reacted to being given a four year, 8.25 million dollar contract with roughly 7.9 million dollars guaranteed when I was twenty-one, but I suspect there might have had some bumps. The problem is, when you’re a key part of business that is worth somewhere between five hundred million and billion dollars, if not more, you don’t have a lot of wiggle room for poor results and bad decisions. The first few months of Manziel’s NFL career has not been a success, and in having a camp competition with no clear winner, but with Hoyer being getting the starter job through being the least bad option, the team do not have a clear leader of the team.

Now there’s nothing to say that being sat for the year would have prevented Manziel from giving Washington’s sideline the finger in the Browns’ second preseason game, but it might have helped. The Browns are in a mess and I think that between management and coaching, they have contributed to their own problems.

In Jacksonville however, we have the opposite problem as the good play of the rookie Bortles has some already suggesting he should be starting. However, Henne has also being playing well and the idea of throwing a rookie quarterback out into an NFL season behind a what is thought to be a shaky line seems like short term thinking. A good quarterback needs time to develop if they’re to have the long career that a team is hoping for when they invest a first round pick on a player. The problem is that the situation is still more complicated than that.

I’ve talked before about the importance of depth in the NFL, and the quarterback position is hardest nut to crack for this. You don’t have to have a top five quarterback to win a Super Bowl, but you do need a certain level of competency and there are not enough of this calibre of players for thirty two teams. That should give you an idea of how hard it is to play the position at the NFL level, but also shows why getting your quarterback situation set is so important, as it is unlikely that you will have a quality backup just waiting behind your starter ready to go.

So, you have to balance the risk of exposure to injury and the needs of the coach to win, against the development of your young quarterback, but you can do all of that and still not guarantee your player will turn out how you hope. We have just lost the Rams’ quarterback Sam Bradford to a season ending injury as he re-tore the ACL in his left knee. This could well be the end of Bradford’s tenure in St Louis as his cap figure for next year is too big given that he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. I feel so sorry for him as he clearly has a lot of talent and potential, but you can’t realise that if you can’t stay on the field.

So we’ve establishing that the quarterback position is complicated, but we haven’t got to a commonality with evaluating any player, which is scheme fit. One team’s star can be another player’s dud. I wrote earlier in my things to watch that I was interested to see how Robert Griffin was going to do playing for Jay Gruden, who at times seemed to ask Andy Dalton to do too much to win games last year with the Bengals. But although RG3 has the strong arm, he has not played as pocket passer before and the skills are different than being the dynamic dual threat that he was in his rookie year. Having been derailed by injury last year, we shall see how he fairs over the coming year.

So having distracted you with quarterbacks, and established that there is no simple answer in how to get one, I’m going back to games. Coming up next, a review of my preseason teams, cuts day is round the corner, we’re a week away from the season starting, and I for one can’t wait.

NFL Preseason Week 1 – What I Learnt

17 Sunday Aug 2014

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There’s an old saying that failure to plan is planning to fail. Well in my case, it wasn’t so much bad planning as life being in the way of the blog as I’ve been on holiday during the first week of preseason so I’ve only seen one game so far, firstly here’s what I’ve learnt so far about writing a blog on the NFL and watching games:

  1. I have a sheet of the things I want to look at for each team that I used for my previous article, and whilst watching games I realised that as well as having a list of players, I need their numbers so I can spot them quickly whether they get mentioned in commentary or not. So before I even start my remedial game study I need to get my watch sheet up to date.
  2. Have your notebook with you! I have watched the Hall of Fame game and I will go through a few things from that shortly, but having got myself a notebook for the season, it’s a good idea to have it with you.
  3. Have a second device, I tend to watch Gamepass on my tablet but following on from the need to having my cheat sheet ready, it’s also handy to have the team rosters handy, particularly in preseason where the younger players you might not have heard of are getting their chance.

So having revealed my incompetence, here’s what I took away from the New York Giants v Buffalo Bills in the Hall of Fame Game.

I liked the balance of the Giants offense, which given a feature of last year’s seemed to be a bad back foot throw from Eli Manning, can only be an improvement. I didn’t get to see too much of Eli but his backup, Ryan Nassib did seem to have some poise despite having the up and down performance of a backup. The real stars that popped out to me were in the running game with Rashad Jennings running solidly and the rookie Andre Williams really catching the eye with his pace and power.

For the Bills I’m worried already, Sammy Watkins failed to catch my eye or the ball. More worrying, was first EJ Manuel and then Jeff Tuel both seemed be fixing on their first receiver and Manuel in particular was so obvious where he was going that his balls kept getting batted down at the line.

I am now going to go grab my notebook and start working my way through my backlog of games for the Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings, and Rams. Plus if I get a chance, I might check out the Cardinals rookie QB Logan Thomas who is already getting buzz as being the best of the new quaterbacks.

 

Sixty-six things to Watch this Season

03 Sunday Aug 2014

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Now that training camps are open and we start games tonight, I’m really beginning to get a buzz about the new season. One of my targets for this season is to watch a regular season game of every NFL team, and as I was thinking about this I started to put together a list of players and things I am interested in. To this end, I present my sixty-six things to watch in the NFL this season.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals has the best record of a team not to make the playoffs last season, and I remember the talk of their good defence and whether you could trust Carson Palmer at QB. However, the two players I’m interested in seeing this season is Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson. I am aware of the quality of Fitzgerald, but have never really watched him in depth so I want to see what separates him from other receivers. Peterson is many peoples’ second best corner behind Richard Sherman, a three time Pro Bowler in his first three seasons, I want to see how he plays as I don’t even know if he is a man or zone corner.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons crashed from their first playoff win to a 4-12 record last season. The draft buzz was that they were going to move up to take a pass rusher, but they stayed put and picked up a much needed tackle. I think this was a good decision, as part of the reason that the Falcons had such problems last year is the thinness of their roster that was caused by them trading picks to move up and target specific players. It will be interesting to see how their first round tackle Jake Mathews plays and if he helps their line as they try to bounce back from last year. I’m also interested to see how effectively they can rush the passer and what happens on the defensive side of the ball.

Baltimore Ravens

So now I’m writing about the enemy. The Ravens took a step back after their Super Bowl win of the previous year. This is perhaps not surprising given the player turn over during the off season, but they will be hoping for better things this year. I shall be interested to see if they can finally develop a stable offensive line that cab help improve their offense, and what makes Torrey Smith such a favourite target of Flacco. With their Pro Bowler Terell Suggs calling for Flacco to be more vocal in his leadership, I shall be taking a close look at his own play.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills had another disappointing season in 2013 and went for broke in the draft by trading up for Sammy Watkins. I shall be interested to see how quickly he can have an impact given that it often takes time for a receiver to develop in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, I shall be taking a look at Mario Williams and just how effective his is as a pass rusher.

Carolina Panthers

Having won their division last year, you would think that the outlook for this season would be positive. However, having lost their left tackle to retirement on an already suspect line, and with an underpowered receiving core before the loss of Steve Smith, it looks like Cam Newton might be in for a touch season so that will be my first thing to watch. On the other side of the ball, Luke Kuechly in two seasons has already established himself as an All-Pro tackling machine that should definitely be watched.

Chicago Bears

Last year, under a new coach, there was a different style of Bears team. Usually a limited offense ably supported by brilliant defense, we had a role reversal last year. However, with the backup QB moving on after an excellent season, all eyes will be on whether Jay Cutler can thrive for an entire season and continue the turn around on offense. On defense, the Bears have let Julius Peppers go and I will be fascinated to see how they rebuild the defensive line and get pressure on the quarterback.

Cincinnati Bengals

I could write an entire post on the Bengals season, but I shall limit myself to three players on the playoff win or bust Bengals. I shall start with AJ Green, a top ten talent according to the players of the NFL, who is pushing himself to do better in the playoffs. On defence, one of my favourite sights in the NFL just happens to play for the Bengals, Geno Atkin gets so much pressure as a tackle and everyone should take a look. Also, wherever the ball goes, you’ll find Vontaze Burfict there or not far behind, always fun to watch.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns were one of the better 4-12 teams that you could see last year, and took a game off the Bengals. Sadly, as is often the case with the Browns, I’m not sure that this year looks to build on last year’s foundations. There have been changes in coaches, management, and their star receiver is done for the year with a suspension (appeal pending). Add to that, they have drafted the infamous Johnny Manziel, whose off season is already problematic, and he is sat behind Brian Hoyer, there seems to be a lot to worry about. The defense was solid, but where their season will go depends on what happens with their two QBs. One thing that will help them is their seven time Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas, who is definitely worth a look.

Dallas Cowboys

The self-styled America’s team, full of flash and bombast in the way they’re run, look to be in for an interesting season. They have already lost their best defensive player to injury having lost their leading pass rusher in free agency. I see plenty of scoring for them next year on both sides of the ball. On offense I shall be looking at Dez Bryant to see what make him so good. On defense, Barry Church led the team in tackles, splitting some time at Linebacker in the nickel defense, so it will be interesting to see how he is used this year and if those numbers were inflated by team needs last system.

Denver Broncos

Sometimes it is important not to over think things and so the first thing I shall be looking at with last year’s Super Bowl loser is Peyton Manning for the simple fact that when he has his team running, it is a joy to watch. I’m also interested to see how Von Miller will play this season and to take a proper look at his skills.

Detroit Lions

The Lions missed out on the playoffs again last season and seemed to lack discipline as they failed to make the most of a down year from the Packers. On offense they have one of the great receivers in Calvin Johnson, so I want to look how he deals with coverage always shading to him. On defense, the Lions are built around their line so I want to take a look at them with Ndamukong Suh playing for a contract, Nick Fairley and Ezekiel Ansah, their line will probably define their season in how it plays.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers demonstrated just how good Aaron Rodgers is with their struggles whilst he was recovering from a broken collar bone, but sill managed to win their division. He is another of those QBs that is worth watching whenever you get the chance, and with the talk of them wanting to run seventy-five plays a game, sounds like a win to me. On defence, Clay Mathews and AJ Hawk are the two linebackers that make their 3-4 defense work and I shall be trying to work out what makes them tick.

Houston Texans

I took no pleasure in the Texans 2-14 season last year, despite them being the architects of the two previous Bengals playoff losses. They had all sorts of problems at the quarterback spot, which doesn’t seem to have a long term answer, but at least Andre Johnson has come back to camp and is always worth watching. On defense, JJ Watt is one of the most electrifying players in the game, and in what I think was the right draft pick, is joined by Jadeveon Clowney, who I will be fascinated to see after all the hype about his college career.

Indianapolis Colts

I haven’t seen that much of the Colts in the last couple of seasons, so what I know of them is mostly by reputation. My remedial work on this is that with all the noise, I have to take a look at their star QB Andrew Luck, and his leading receiver TY Hilton. Of course, I’ll be interested to see what else jumps out at me, which is part of the fun of trying to watch each team and I’m sure I’ll spot something on defence.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs bounced back under a rejuvenated Andy Reid to an 11-5 record and were one of two wild cards from the AFC West. Alex Smith came into his own later in the year when he had to, but the Chiefs are one of the few teams that still rely on a work horse back. Jamaal Charles excelled in the running game and had over six hundred yards in recieving. On defence, they had two double digit pass rushers (Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, although it was the huge nose tackle Dontari Poe who impressed me) so I’ll be interested to look at their front seven again and how they get pressure on the quarterback.

Miami Dolphins

We’re now getting in a run of two teams that are part of my pre-season focus. I’ve already written about the troubles that have befallen the Dolphins line and it will be interesting to see if they can hold up enough for the Dolphins to get a read on whether Ryan Tannehill is their QB for the long term. The Dolphins leading pass rusher was Olivier Vernon, and I shall be interested to take a look at him and how their line plays.

Minnesota Vikings

I really want Mike Zimmer to do well, and I’m pretty confident as he is a good coach and already there is talk of Adrian Peterson being excited by the scheme of new OC Norv Turner. Peterson was already an amazing player in a conservative offense so I’m excited to see how he will be utilised this season. On defense, through departure and retirement the famously strong line including the two Williams and Jared Allen has gone, so I will be fascinated to see how they rebuild this group, particularly given the strength and depth of defensive line that Zimmer help build in Cincinnati.

New England Patriots

When a team has the most successful coach and quarterback combination every, you watch the quarterback. Even with talk of his skills fading and a receiving core that was incredibly young as the roster fell apart round him, Brady managed to lead the team to a 12-4 record and another division title, watch him whilst you can. One of the most interesting off season signings to me was the Patriots losing Aqib Talib and immediately going out and signing Darrelle Revis. There is no way that Bill Belichick is going to make the mistake that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in playing Revis in a zone system, I for one am looking forward to the return of Revis Island to the NFL.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints went 11-5 last season, proving that coaching matters when they got Sean Payton back from his suspension. I was impressed with the turn around on defensive under Rob Ryan, who I have never been truly convinced by before. However, for me this is a team that you watch for Drew Brees running Payton’s offense and so that’s where my focus will be. In particular, I shall be watching Marques Colston after Brady Quinn in the middle of a great interview on the Ros Tucker podcast (episode here), said that he ran routes like a quarterback would.

New York Giants

The Giants had a bad season last year and were still 7-9, but Eli Manning had a horrible year. He’s had his ankles scoped and is running a new offense this year, and I shall be fascinated to see if he can turn it around last season as the knives are already being sharpened for him, despite the two Super Bowl rings. The defense was not great last year, but one player who stands out to me is Antrel Rolle who led the team in tackles from the safety spot, had two sacks and six interceptions. I don’t know if this is from circumstance, but as three time Pro Bowler, including last season, I shall be interested to how he plays this season.

New York Jets

Some teams always seem to be in the news, and with Rex Ryan as their coach the Jets are never far away from the headlines. I’m not sure if all the extra attention is beneficial or not, and the Jets haven’t had a good offense in years, but say what you want about Ryan, he know defense. I am half convinced that given eleven people off the street, Ryan could turn them into a unit that could keep you in the game so sit back and enjoy him at work. On offense, the big question is whether there young quarterback Geno Smith can establish himself as a quality starter in the NFL, and I wonder how long a leash he will have with Michael Vick sitting behind him.

Oakland Raiders

It is hard to see a once proud franchise languish in mediocrity for so long, and last season was another one to forget. But after years of mismanagement, part of last year’s 4-12 was getting a lot of bad contracts of the books and so things might begin to turn round if the rebuild project starts bearing fruit. They hope that part of this is their first round draft pick Khalil Mack, talked about as possibly the best player in the draft, let’s hope that he can be a piece they can build around on defense. Among many issues last season was that of quarterback, and whilst the signing of Matt Schaub, coming of a disasterous season, will not send hopes soaring, he might provide veteran leadership and stability at the position with Dereck Carr waiting in the wings to see if he can move past the fall out of his brother’s troubled career.

Philadelphia Eagles

The big question last season for the Eagles was whether Chip Kelly’s college offence was going to work in the NFL, and with a division title and excellent play the answer was a resounding yes. I was impressed last season, and even more so after hearing him interviewed recently so I am all in on Chip Kelly (listen here for the interview). There have been some interesting moves on offence this off season, but I’m looking forward to seeing how it runs. The question for the Eagles on defense last year was how it would hold up as they switched to a 3-4 defense from a 4-3, and if they had the players to make it work. Their play definitely improved over the year and I shall be interested to see how this progresses and how their two inside linebackers play.

Pittsburgh Steelers

One of the down sides of living in the UK as an NFL fan is that you don’t have the office chats about your sport. The upside of this is that I don’t have to deal with Steeler fans and their six championships. Thanks to not having to live the local rivalry, I can respect coach Tomlin and what he has done with the team. I’m not sure they have dealt with the salary cap well over the last few years, which has led to an ageing team that only went 8-8 last year. On a team that has often had a patchy offensive line, Maurkice Pouncey went to three Pro Bowls in his first three years. Sadly, last year he tore his ACL and MCL in week one, but I should get plenty of chances to see how he does this year. The problem on defense last year seemed to be age catching up with key players, but Dick LeBeau is an NFL institution and one for my favourite coaches. I shall be interested to see how he integrates the speedy new inside linebacker Ryan Shazier, and if he will be the next in the production line of great Steelers linebackers.

You have no idea how painful it was to write that…

Saint Louis Rams

The Rams play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, and still went 7-9 last season. But if they want to do something against the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals (I told you it was a tough division) then they need stellar quarterback play out of Sam Bradford. This could be a crucial year for him in deciding his future, he has benefitted like few others from the huge contracts form the old CBA, and it will be interesting to see if he can finally establish himself or if the Rams will need to look elsewhere for the future. On defense the Rams already had an impressive front seven, even before they drafted Aaron Donald. I shall look forward to getting a proper look at them and in particular Robert Quinn, who had nineteen sacks last season.

San Diego Chargers

The other team to get a wildcard from the AFC West, the Chargers were renewed under new coach Mike McCoy. On offense Phillip Rivers had a comeback season and with a long ball like his, it’s always fun to watch him play when things are going well. This is not a team that I know particularly well, but that is the point of this list, and having seen that Eric Weddle led the team in tackles and went to the Pro Bowl last season, I look forward to seeing what he can do.

San Francisco 49ers

They are part of one of the best rivalries in the NFL with the Seahawks and have gone to the divisional championship game or the Super Bowl in the last three seasons. They have built their offense round the offensive line and are generally thought to have one of the best in the game, so I am looking forward to taking a closer look at them, particularly with access to coaching tape to see them from the end zone view. They also have one of my favourite players on defense in Justin Smith, always worth a watch.

Seattle Seahawks

Last years Super Bowl champs will be strong contenders again, built as they are on the depth of their roster and a brilliant defense. They have given new contracts to Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, consolidating the infamous Legion of Boom. They pretty much play a three deep zone all the time, but are so good that it doesn’t matter that the offense know what is coming as they can’t exploit. Sherman is a great corner, but it is the range of Thomas that allows them to do this and the all twenty-two tape should be fascinating. On offense, Russel Wilson has paved the way for the shorter quarterback, and he’s a lot more than the game manager that some people paint him as so take a look for yourself.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have a feeling that Tampa Bay will be a lot better this year than their 4-12 record last year. Lovie Smith will be a big upgrade as coach and in Josh McCown, they will have some stability at quarterback whilst they search for a long term solution. He played excellently last season, despite a career as a backup, and I think he will do well this season. The Bucs had one Pro Bowler last year in linebacker Lavonte David, so I’ll be interested to see how he plays, and hopefully things will turn round for the franchise.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans went 7-9 last year, but had instability at quarterback and an offense that never quite took off, whilst a solid defence kept them in games. The honest thing is that I really don’t have a handle on this team and they have a new coach this season. The first thing I want to look for, is what they look like as a team and what jumps out at me. I’m not afraid to say I don’t know about things! On defense I am interested in Jurell Casey as he is a young player who led his team in sacks last season, and I want to see if it was him or the team that got these sacks.

Washington Redskins

Washington have a new head coach in Jay Gruden, who will be looking to turn round the franchise after their 3-13 season. I felt that he often put too much emphasis on Dalton to win with his arm for the Bengals, but with RG3 he has a quarterback that I think has the arm to run his offense. I’ll be interested to see how this partnership works this season. Brian Orakpo is playing out this season on a franchise tag, and it will be interesting to see what he does with a big contract on the horizon.

 

And that’s it, by no means and exhaustive list, but I feel like a good one to start with so roll on the new season.