Monthly Archives: January 2015

The Week Before the Super Bowl

24 Saturday Jan 2015

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It has been a slightly odd week post the Conference Championship games, a mixture of the break in routine and the stories floating round has made things feel a little out of synch. I’m going to go through the games from the weekend and some of the other major stories floating round, but will look at the Super Bowl next week.

It feels like a slightly odd week to be trying to add value when there is such focused coverage, and the Pro Bowl is the only game of football this week. A game incidentally, that I have never watched before, although I may watch it back on rewind next week. The major story after the games has been the woefully monikered deflategate, but let’s look at the actual games first.

The first game of the day was a pretty one sided affair for fifty-five minutes, that exploded into an improbable comeback and eventual win for the Seahawks. The majority of the focus has been on the failed onside kick recovery, but there was more to this loss than that as some have been writing. The Packers were pretty dominant for the first fifty-five minutes, but the seeds of their downfall were sown as early as the first quarter. Twice in the first quarter the Packers drove down to the Seattle one yard line, but came away with only a field. I can understand kicking the first field goal, but you need to think about going for it on fourth down the second time you are down there as one of the key things in modern football is red-zone efficiency. More than that though, even if you fail you to convert, you pin the opposition against their own yard line so the down side is not that bad.

The real problem with the field goals, was it spoke of the conservative approach that Mike McCarthy and his team brought to this game, and when you add to the one touchdown scored out of the first three trips to the red-zone, an incredibly conservative approach to running the clock out, a defender who just gave himself up after the final interception, not testing Richard Sherman when he was playing cornerback with one arm, successfully disarming the Seattle offence for most of the game then going into a prevent defence, and meekly trotting up the field to kick a field goal rather than go for the touchdown when you have Aaron freaking Rodgers… well we know what happened.

You have to give the Seahawks credit for their part in the comeback, but even on their overtime touchdown the Packers were for some reason play zero safety so there was no one over the top to help. Their excellent secondary was nicked up with Earl Thomas dislocating his shoulder and only coming back in the second half once it had been strapped up, and Sherman’s injury in the fourth quarter. But what was worse for the Seahawks, was that their offence really didn’t get going until these last few moments. Apart from a few glimpses from Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks had done very little and Russell Wilson was having a nightmare, he threw four interceptions, fumbled the ball, and still came away with the win. He will need to play a lot better than that next week if he wants to win his second Super Bowl.

If the first game had amazing drama, then the second had an old fashioned thrashing. You have to give the Colts the credit they deserve for winning the two playoff games that they did, but just as they were making us question the distrust of their talent, they got battered by the Patriots. I wrote about the Patriots mutable nature when it comes to game planning, but in this one Belichick and his staff were definitely working on a plan of if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. The Patriots ran up over 170 yards of rushing in this game, with LeGarrette Blount repeatedly looking as if he had nowhere to go, but as Colts defenders over pursued he was able to get yards. The Colts clearly still have a lot of work to do if they are going to build a team capable of winning a Super Bowl around their clearly amazing quarterback, as they will need to compete with the NFL elite to have a chance of doing this and the roster is not ready for this yet.

If the game itself was a very one sided affair with not a huge amount to write about, the aftermath has seen a flurry of words and outrage when it was revealed on Monday that a number of the balls used by the Patriots’ offence were under the official designated pressure. This would make the ball easier to grip and therefore to throw and catch, but let’s be honest, this had no effect on the result of this game. The problem right now is perception as this is not the first time the Patriots have been embroiled in an issue of cheating, but the truth is we don’t know what happened and whilst the NFL doesn’t exactly have the best track record in investigation, we really don’t have much choice but to let the investigation run its course.

The Super Bowl is going to be a fascinating matchup between two teams that really divide opinion amongst fans, but I’ll look at that more next week.

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NFL Conference Championship Preview

18 Sunday Jan 2015

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My overriding emotion after last week’s games was one of sadness, and not because there are now only three competitive games left, but the way Peyton Manning and the Broncos played left me feeling down. I’ll take a look at the teams leaving us before examining the Conference Championship games.

The were a lot more points scored in the first game of the weekend than I was expecting, but to take a fourteen point lead, have the Patriots level the score, get another fourteen point lead, the Patriots level once more, then take another lead, and yet finally lose the game must really hurt. The Ravens were able to move the ball well, running for over a hundred yards and passing effectively, but Joe Flacco threw two interceptions. On both of these, the safety came down to intercept balls thrown to Torrey Smith. What I didn’t know was that the first interception came whilst the Ravens were running a play that had worked in the first quarter, but flipped to the other side. If you get a chance, watch this video on the Patriots website with Belichick breaking down some key plays from the game, it’s one of the more fascinating tape segments you’ll see all year, and I owe a thanks to the excellent Michael Carlson for tweeting the link. The part that surprised me about this game was the defence, with the Terrel Suggs and Elvis Doomerville having quiet games, but whilst the Patriots were very pass heavy, Brady was getting the ball out of his hands before the pass rush could get there.

The Ravens are going to be a very good football team again next year, they have a lot of players already in place, are keeping their coaching team in tact, and they can reinforce the secondary as well as get players back. I’m getting worried already.

The Panthers gave a really good account of themselves in a really difficult place to play, but this game demonstrated that they are a team on the up rather than one pushing for a championship. There was more scoring in this game than I was expecting, but at the end of the day they simply were not talented enough to compete with the Seahawks when it mattered most. This will be an interesting offseason for them as they will have a little more cap room to play with, but the Cam Newton contract will be key, and to a large extent determine how they continue to build this team going forward.

The Cowboys benefited from officiating in their Wildcard game, and then suffered in this one, although the rule as it is currently written was enforced correctly. I thought Dez Byant had made the catch, although the bobble at the end made me think he was down inside the one. However, as soon as I saw the ball move on the replay I thought it would be overturned. This is the problem with replay, as whilst you want calls to be right, and replay helps you get this, as fans we want to see football plays and Dez Bryant made an excellent play. In fact, the Cowboys played really well in this came and could have won it.

There was not a lot of pressure up the middle from the Cowboys’ defence, but Rod Marinelli really took advantage of Rodgers limited mobility and there were several times when you could see huge spaces that he couldn’t run into. However, once the Packers adjusted in the second half, putting more receivers on the field to spread the defence, Rodgers was able to move the ball through the air and finished the game with over three hundred yards passing.

The Broncos fell out of the playoffs with a limp display that has led to the firing of Jon Fox. There are questions surrounding Peyton Manning’s arm strength, the extent of his leg injury, and whether he will come back next season. Selfishly I would like to see him come back as I still enjoy watching him play, when he’s not facing the Bengals, and as recently as three games ago he managed a terrifying third quarter in Cincinnati that makes me think that if can get injury free, he can still be effective. However, whether he can get that healthy, stay there, and still has the will power to go through everything required to play football only he will know. As much as anything, I would like a better end to his amazing career than this damp squib of game.

Whilst Manning struggled, so did the rest of the team. One of the few bright sparks was CJ Anderson who managed eighty yards on eighteen carries, and whilst there several drives that consisted of short runs on first and second down with a missed fade pass on third down, given Manning’s struggles in the pass game and these figures, a commitment to the run game could have kept the game closer. The big surprise for me on the other side of the ball however, was how little pass rush Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware managed as they managed no sacks and barely any pressure. This is a good team, but with so many free agents and now coaching upheaval, in addition to the status of Peyton Manning, the offseason could be something of a soap opera in Denver.

But enough of the teams that have left us, there are three more games to go so let’s get to the Conference Championship games:

Packers @ Seahawks

DVOA                                    Packers                        Seahawks

Overall:                       4th                                1st
Offensive:                   1st                                4th
Defensive:                   18th                              1st
Special Teams:            30th                              17th

The Seahawks very much took care of business last week, scoring more points than I thought they would whilst conceding more. In truth they got less out of Marshawn Lynch in the running game than I was expecting, but Russell Wilson was solid in the passing game and added twenty-two yards of rushing. They may not be a unit full of high-powered names, but the Seahawks skill players are playing very solid football and Russell Wilson continues to impress as a quarterback. They will be hoping to have a better day in the run game, but the Packers defence is not as fearsome prospect as the Panthers have been in recent weeks and they could have some success.

The Packers defence had some worrying moments last week, and whilst it was a great play by Julius Peppers to knock the ball out, it did look like DeMarco Murray was about to rip off a huge run with the defence opening up before him. In fact the Cowboys moved the ball pretty well and were certainly able to run the ball. This is perhaps not surprising as they were only ranked twenty-fourth in rush defence by DVPA through the regular season and this could be a real problem for them in Lynch get going.

The Packers are constructed for their defence to do enough to win, relying on their excellent offence, but in this game they are facing the best defence left in the playoffs, and probably the best in recent week. The Seahawks got some of their linebackers back and have been playing great defence for weeks now. Their secondary is incredibly strong with Kam Chancellor having an amazing game last week, demonstrating amazing agility to leap over the line in an attempt to block a field goal as well as getting a pick six. It will be interesting to see how they do against a Packers team who did not throw to Richard Sherman’s side of the field in their meeting on opening day back in September, but who have come on a long way since then. I would expect them to be aggressive early in the pass rush to test Aaron Rodgers movement and see if they can disrupt him in the passing game.

The Packers offence is different to where it was at the start of the season. Their o-line has coalesced and changed since the start of the season and has been playing excellent football. However, there is marked difference in the Packers home and away performance, and it has been talked and written that at home they are able to go through a number of plays to find the right one due to how quiet the stadium is. This is very much not going to be the case in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. The other problem for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers played brilliantly last week on one leg, but it was clear that his calf injury was forcing him to play a different game, and whilst he could get away with this against the Cowboys defence, I’m not sure he will able to this week. You might think that it would be a good idea to rely on the run more to protect him, but although the Seahawks defence is famed for its secondary, they are still ranked second by DVOA in rush defence, which is in fact one place higher than their pass defence. There were some moments from Eddie Lacy, but he didn’t look that impressive for stretches of last week’s game and the Packers could do with a big game from him. However, in the passing game, whilst they did not get a strong game from Jordy Nelson last week, this didn’t matter as they got one hundred yard games out of Randall Cobb and Davante Adams so if they can spread the field again, maybe they can find a matchup they like,

This will be a fascinating game that I suspect the Seahawks will win due to their home field advantage and the difference in the way the Packers play away from home.

Colts @ Patriots

DVOA                                    Colts                            Patriots

Overall:                       13th                              2nd
Offensive:                   19th                              3rd
Defensive:                   7th                                12th
Special Teams:            15th                              7th

There have been talks of a possible second passing of the torch game for the Colts this week, with Andrew Luck having beaten Peyton Manning and now facing Tom Brady.

The matchups in this game will be interesting because the Patriots as a team are so mutable, you never know what Belichick and his staff are planning. Last week they abandoned the run game in the second half, ran plays with four linemen, and dusted off an options play the type we haven’t seen from them in years. That said, earlier in the year they pounded the Colts using extra linemen and racked up 246 rushing yards that included a two hundred yard, four touchdown day for Jonas Gray who has barely been heard from since. We don’t know if Belichick will revert back to the run attack this week, or if he will try to do something else, so from a tactical point of view this will be a fascinating game.

The Patriots offence had to rely on deception to get the win against the Ravens last week, but the Colts are a different proposition. They have looked very good in the playoffs so far, but the Patriots will offer a far more balanced challenge, Although talk of his demise were premature, Tom Brady doesn’t have the same ability to go deep he had when Randy Moss was running those go patterns, but he does have receivers that suit this offence, and Rob Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare for every team in the NFL. That said, they will miss their centre Bryan Stork, and one of the first things to look for is whether the line problems the Patriots suffered at the start of the season will resurface as they have to shuffle this unit.

The Colts defence has looked excellent for two weeks in a row, but the Bengals were missing too many receivers for Andy Dalton to excel, and the Broncos were strangely limited even taking into account the issues affecting Peyton Manning. The Patriots may be shuffling their line so there could be issues, Brady has his weapons and this could stretch this defence. They played great as a unit last week, and Vontae Davis was all over the field, but the Patriots don’t really have a single threat for him to man up against and at six foot and two hundred pounds, he doesn’t really match up with Gronkowski. This has been a tough tackling unit that has been really well coached, but I wonder if they get exposed against the Patriots like they were earlier in the season, two hundred yards is a lot to give up in the running game.

The Patriots defence has been a talking point for its fans as it has been as good as they have had for a long time, but it didn’t exactly catch the eye last week. The secondary that has been much improved did manage to get two interceptions last week, but as unit they gave up a lot of points and go against another good unit this week. That said, the Colts offensive line is not as good as the Ravens and so there is more chance of the Patriots getting a sustained pass rush. It will be interesting to see how much of this will come from Jamie Collins who is excellent at both pass rushing and coverage. What he is doing could well be a key as to what the Patriots think is the priority in this game and how they plan to get to Andrew Luck.

This leads us nicely to the Colts offence, which is only slightly more than Andrew Luck. Up until a couple of weeks ago I was only really impressed with four Colts players and three of them play in this offence. I don’t know if Andrew Luck will supplant our current great quarterbacks as some have been saying, as there are just too many variables, but he has certainly started his career in spectacular fashion. The throw he made to Donte Moncrief against the Bengals with defensive linemen round his feet was nothing short of spectacular. I have been pretty impressed with two of his targets, but whilst TY Hilton has an amazing knack of getting open, he drops too many balls, and Luck’s numbers would be even more impressive if Hilton had held onto some more of the very catchable balls that he has dropped. That said, I have been very impressed with his tight end Coby Fleener who has caught fifty balls for seven hundred yards this season, and seems to be good for several big plays a game whenever I’ve watched the Colts. However, the problem is that their o-line is not very good and whilst they could triple team Carlos Dunlap against the Bengals, I think they will be challenged more this week. But then again, I thought that last week and it didn’t materialise against the excellent pass rushers of the Broncos so only time will tell.

I am not sure how this game is going to go, as my instinct says that the Patriots should take care of business at home, but their o-line shuffle worries me and the Colts have been on a real run recently. That said, I’m not that impressed with the talent spread against their roster, and whilst they have been coached really well and are playing very tough football, I can see them coming up short against the elite teams in the league, and the Patriots are very definitely one of those.

NFL Divisional Playoff Preview – Sunday Edition

11 Sunday Jan 2015

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So last night we had one close and one not so close game. The Patriots eked out a 35-31 win despite being down by fourteen points twice, but the defence stiffened at the right times and managed to get two crucial interceptions from their safeties when Joe Flacco was throwing to Torrey Smith. In the second game the Panthers managed to keep it close for three quarters, but two interceptions were too much from Cam Newton who threw a pick six in the fourth quarter that sealed the game for the Seahawks.

So we know that the Patriots and Seahawks will be playing at home next week, so let’s have a look at who might be visiting them.

Cowboys @ Packers

DVOA:                       Cowboys                     Packers

Overall                        8th                                3rd
Offensive                    5th                                1st
Defensive                    21st                              18th
Special Teams             13th                              21st

The Sunday games open with probably the most iconic match up of the weekend as the self-proclaimed America’s team, the Dallas Cowboys, visit the Green Bay Packers.

In what has been something of a theme for the home teams this week, the Packers got off to a rocky 1-2 start to the season, with Aaron Rodgers telling Packers fans to, “R-E-L-A-X,” after their loss to the Lions. It would however prove to be sound advice, as they would only lose two more games over the rest of the season.

The Packers offence has at times been a thing of beauty this year, with their offensive line coming together in a way that has allowed everyone to shine. Aaron Rodgers put himself firmly in the discussion for the league MVP and is probably playing quarterback better than anyone else in the league right now. It was good to see Jordy Nelson finally get rewarded with a Pro Bowl berth given how well he has played over the last couple of season, and the Packers finally have a run game in the shape of Eddie Lacy. However, the big question in this game is the calf injury that Aaron Rodgers suffered in their final game against the Lions. He is promising that he will play this weekend, and he was effective throwing quick passes when he went back into the game against the Lions, but there is talk of a slight tear along with the significant strain. Rodgers has missed a lot of practice, but we won’t truly know what effect this will have until we seem him on the filed Sunday.

The Packers offence has been as good as anybody’s for several season, but the question has frequently been whether the defence can be good enough for them to go all the way. This was again the question for this unit earlier in the season, but moving Clay Matthews inside on early downs, and then returning him to the edge in passing downs seems to have solidified their run defence. The free agent addition of Julius Peppers at outside linebacker has also worked as he has looked as good as he’s done for years. They may only be ranked eighteenth by DVOA, but when your offence is ranked number one in the league then that could well be good enough.

The Cowboys have a tough task this week. They stuck to their guns in the only close game of last week, and managed to get the comeback amidst odd officiating whilst facing one of the best defensive units in the game. Assuming that Rodgers is effective, the problem for them this is that whilst they will have a much easier time running the ball, I don’t think they can rely on DeMarco Murray to grind out the game for them. The Packers offence is too explosive, and likely to put up too many points at home where Rodgers has been peerless, for the Cowboys to keep running the ball as I think this could allow the Packers to get away from them.

This all comes down to how Rodgers plays and whether the Cowboys can generate enough offence, as although their defences are not ranked that dissimilarly by DVOA, I have more faith in the Packers than I do in the Cowboys’ opportunistic unit.

Colts @ Broncos

DVOA:                       Colts                            Broncos

Overall                        13th                              4th
Offensive                    21st                              6th
Defensive                    10th                              5th
Special Teams             8th                                27th

The final game of the weekend is also one of the most intriguing as Peyton Manning welcomes his former team to Denver.

All the talk about the Broncos in recent weeks has been the health of Peyton Manning. He has not looked right for a number of weeks, and whilst the sight of Manning throwing wobbly balls is nothing new, there appears to be a lack of velocity that is finally causing issues. There is no doubting his mental ability, but the question is whether he body will allow him to do enough for the Broncos to the win. The good news is that the team are better prepared to deal with this now than they were last season. In recent weeks they have been relying on CJ Anderson in the run game, which has been effective behind a line that seems to have found a good line up in the secondary.

The Broncos defence was banged up last year going into the Super Bowl, but not only are they healthier right now, but their retooled secondary has been effective and the addition of DeMarcus Ware along with a healthy Von Miller has given them a fearsome pass rush. This has resulted in a unit that has leapt eleven places in defensive DVOA when you compare the 2013 regular season to this year, and you would think that they will be able to generate the pressure on Andrew Luck that the Bengals so singularly failed to get last week.

The Colts really took care of the Bengals, and looked good in patches, but I’m still not convinced by this team. Andrew Luck played a much cleaner game, cutting out the costly turnovers that has been plaguing him this season, and his numbers would have been even more impressive if his receivers hadn’t dropped very catchable balls. However, the Bengals offence was missing too many players to pose a credible long passing game so whilst the Colts looked good stopping the run, they could stack the box. They may not be scared of the long ball given how Manning is playing at the moment, but we are talking about one of the great quarterbacks to ever play the game and you would think he can find a way.

I would love to see Manning get a second Super Bowl Win, just to shut down the conversations surrounding how good he is. Success in the playoffs is such a matter of match ups, and there is so much variance in the standard NFL game, that whilst it is important I think too much is taken away from one of the great players in NFL history. That said, whilst he has often not had enough talent round him, it might be the case that he now has the team round him a season too late. It will be interesting to see how Andrew Luck goes, as he appears to be in a very similar situation as Manning in the early years, a great quarterback that possibly doesn’t have the team around him that he deserves, but this should be a fascinating end to the weekend’s games.

NFL Divisional Playoff Preview – Saturday Edition

10 Saturday Jan 2015

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There was only one close game over the wildcard weekend, but for the most I still found it enjoyable, although it was another painful end for the Bengals. In a league where only one team wins it all, thirty one teams end in disappointment so lets take a moment to say goodbye to the four teams we lost before going on to look at this week’s games.

As was feared, the Cardinals ran out of steam with too many players injured and a disastrous third string quarterback that couldn’t move the ball. What I didn’t expect was the dreadful performance of Cardinals’ punter Drew Butler, which you can ill afford if your offensive is not moving the ball. There was only so much that Bruce Arians and his staff could do despite the excellent job they have done all year.

The Steelers felt the loss of Le’Veon too much to get the balance they needed in the offence and their defence couldn’t play up to the level they needed to win this game. It would seem a overhaul is required in the Steelers secondary with Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu coming to the end of storied careers, and Michael Mitchell has not been convincing all season and was not good in this one.

The most painful paragraphs of this whole blog are these concerning the departure of the Bengals for another season. All I wanted from this season for it to be a success, was for the playoff drought to finally end. However, this was not a healthy year with major pieces of both the offence and defence injured, but the major issues being discussed after the game were the usual questions surrounding Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton.

I think people often underestimate the huge turn around Lewis has affected in Cincinnati, who for years were dreadful. He has created the structures that enabled this team to become one of the most talented in the league, who now draft consistently and considered one of the better teams in the league at this. There’s no getting around the game management and tactical issues that people raise, but he is by far not the only coach who suffers from these problems and I don’t see a coach that makes me leap out and say they should replace him. I also believe in consistency and given the injuries, plus the breaking in of two new co-ordinators I feel like another season is more than fair. There simply aren’t that many teams who have made the playoffs every year for the last four, yet alone in a division as competitive as the AFC North.

As for Andy Dalton, he is not as good as Andrew Luck, but then few quarterbacks are. Nor have many won forty games in their first four seasons or taken their team to the playoffs in each of those seasons. The big game jitters are a worry, but with something more like his full set of weapons and a burgeoning run game that is part of a coordinator’s plan to help him, Dalton can win games. The contract is not the horror that is frequently quoted, and after next season he is pretty easy to cut from a salary cap point of view. However, I think a second year working with Hue Jackson will see improvements, and even a functional quarterback is not easy to come by so the question for those who would get rid of him is, and replace him with whom? I would much rather have the Bengals’ current quarterback situation than say, the Bears.

The final team leaving this week were the lions, whose own playoff woes rival the Bengals with twenty-three seasons separating them from their last playoff win, and an eight playoff game losing streak that is tied for the longest in the league. If there are questions about Andy Dalton, then surely more must be made of Mathew Stafford who is now 0-17 in road games where the opposing team finished with a winning record. This might be one of those slightly made up stats, but it speaks to the mistakes that pepper his game, and whilst he has tantalising physical skills that allow him to make some amazing plays, he had ample support from his defence this year and still couldn’t get the win this weekend. Unfortunately, the offence just wasn’t good enough and it will be interesting to see what happens to this team in the offseason, particularly with Suh on his way.

So having waved goodbye to four more teams, we should take a look at what should be a brilliant set of games.

Ravens @ Patriots

DVOA:                       Ravens                        Patriots

Overall                        5th                                2nd
Offensive                    9th                                3rd
Defensive                    6th                                11th
Special Teams 2nd        2nd                                5th

The Ravens will be heading to New England knowing that they have beaten the Patriots in the playoffs on the road, and will have no fear of them.

The Patriots got off to a rocky start this season, but we should have known better than to question if this was the end of the Brady/Belichick era as having gone 2-2 and losing heavily to the Chiefs on Monday night football, the Patriots won seven straight and finished the season 12-4.

The Patriots offence struggled to begin with, as protection issues meant that Tom Brady did not get the protection he needed, but these got cleared up and as Rob Gronkowski got better over the course of the season so did the offence. They don’t have the classical receiving corp that one would expect for such a high ranked offence, but the structure of the routes in this offence does not demand that and they are a threat to whatever defence they face. The Ravens defence has been good, but they were only twentieth by DVOA in the regular season against tight ends, so the Patriots may well be able to make very good use of Gronkowski in this game. They will need to as the real weakness for the Ravens is their secondary, but if there is a shortcoming in the Patriots offence, it is that they don’t have the receivers to stretch the field and take advantage of this, but I wouldn’t bet against Brady taking the short passes he can get and slowly whittling away to beat the Ravens.

If it is business as usual for Brady and the offence, things have looked a lot better for the Patriots defence this year. They reconfigured their secondary, and server times this season they double teamed the opposition’s best receiver and smothered their second receiver with Darelle Revis who really returned to from this season. They have made great use of Akeem Ayers, who has been a revelation since his trade from the Titans, and they’ve been effective in both the pass and run game, improving their overall ranking by nine places from last season, and giving Brady the support that he has been missing for a number of years.

That said, the Ravens offence has also improved a lot this year under new coordinate Gary Kubiak as I mentioned last week. That said, whilst they did enough to win last week, there are questions about Tory Smith’s fitness and Eugene Mornoe is listed as questionable and could be a huge miss for the Ravens. However, Joe Flacco maintained his impressive record in the playoff, but it will be interesting to see what his receivers can do against the Patriots secondary..

The Ravens’ secondary may be questionable, but they did okay last week and there front seven are really good. In Suggs and Doomerville they have two outstanding edge rushers, but the real problem for Brady could be Haloti Ngata, who gets excellent pressure through the middle and could really cause Brady problems this week.

I still expect the Patriots to win this week, but no one would be surprised if the Ravens nick it and I think this should be one hell of a game.

Panthers @ Seahawks

DVOA:                       Panthers                      Seahawks

Overall                        11th                              1st
Offensive                    18th                              4th
Defensive                   3rd                                1st
Special Teams            29th                              19th
The Seahawks season were another team that had a shaky start to the season that they turned around, although this time it was on the defensive side of the ball. However, in the opening game of the season they looked excellent as they battered the Packers at home and everyone though the Champions would be strong all year.

However, there were problems on defence with players adjusting to new roles on the defensive line and injuries at linebackers meaning they had young players out there. As the season continued they got players, and for weeks now they have looked like the terrifying team from last year and they managed to finish 12-4 to get the number one seed.

The Seahawks offence is built around the run game, but whilst they are deficient in receivers, yet Russell Wilson continues to impress with both his arms and legs. There doesn’t need to be too much written about how good Marshawn Lynch is, but he’ll need to set the tone for the Seahawks offence to be effective.

The Panthers have played the Seahawks close in their last few meetings, but these have all be in Carolina, I can see this as being a close game as the Panthers have a defence that can keep the Seahawks close, but I don’t fancy anyone to go into Seattle and win.

This could particularly be the case as Cam Newton still misses too many simple throws that you have to convert to compete with the best teams. It is rare that you will see a good quarterback with such little touch, everything is just fired in. It also doesn’t help that they lost rookie defensive tackle Star Lotulelei to a broken foot that he picked up in training this week. His numbers may not be amazing, but he had really come on late in the season and he protected Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly so they could make plays at the linebacker position.

I wouldn’t write of the Panthers, but they are the team that I would be most surprised about if they won.

NFL Wildcard Preview

03 Saturday Jan 2015

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I got up early on Monday to watch the condensed Bengals at Steelers without knowing the score, and was thoroughly miserable about the result, so it was with some reluctance that I went through the final sheet of my picks spreadsheet. However, thanks to the late games, I managed to pull two games back on Dan, and so despite being behind for most of the season I managed to pull out a one game win. This happiness lasted for an hour or two before my worry about the upcoming weekend began to set in.

Still, we now come to the part of the year where I get to see all the games so let’s take a look at the upcoming Wildcard Weekend.

Cardinals @ Panthers

DVOA:                       Cardinals                     Panthers

Overall                       22nd                              25th
Offensive                    23rd                              20th
Defensive                   7th                                15th
Special Teams            21st                              30th

There are times when trying to follow an entire league where you get things wrong. The human brain is used to looking for patterns and narratives, and we are also used to putting labels on things and leaving them there. In something as complicated as sport this can be a problems as we often try to fit a narrative to random events, but it is also possible to miss the development of a team across the season if you are not watching carefully enough. I have seen every play of the Bengals season so far, but it is simply not possible for me to do this for thirty-two teams. Looking back, I still had the impression I got watching the Panthers in week six in mind when I wrote about them last week, and this is despite going through the coaching tape that told a different story in week nine.

I went back and watched them beat up on the Falcons in the final game of the season to get them into the playoffs, and I think is going to be an interesting game. The Panthers are playing better football now than they were in mid-season. The defence has really come together with a physical front seven that is now getting a pass rush, and a young secondary that seems to have coalesced into a functional unit. They may only be ranked fifteenth by DVOA, but I would suggest they are playing better than that currently and they are an impressive unit.

On offence, the Panthers seem to have carved themselves an identity as a running team. They use multiple run options from within the same play, and I’m amazed at how much Cam Newton is running considering that it really isn’t that long ago that he sustain fractures to part of his back in a car crash. He is still firing the ball in the passing game, but there is a little more touch, but mainly there seems to be a coherent identity that is working for this team. They are going up against a run defence that is ranked seventh in the league, but that did give up a pair of two hundred yard games at the end of the season so they may be able to make this work in this game.

The Cardinals have limped their way into the playoffs, and despite having an 11-5 record, this is going to be a much closer game than the gap in regular season win total might suggest. The Cardinals coaching staff have done a brilliant job in coping with injuries, but having powered away to a 9-1 start, their season has limped home and it looks like the week fifteen injury to Drew Stanton was a quarterback too far.

The Cardinals have struggled in the run game for most of the year, but having first lost their vertical passing game when Carson Palmer went down for a second and final time, the loss of Drew Stanton has seriously hampered this unit. Whilst Ryan Lindley can make some good looking throws, he also routinely makes bad decisions and is 0-2 as a starter for the Cardinals, whilst throwing two touchdowns to four interceptions. He will be going against a physical defence that I suspect will be able to get turnovers against a young and inexperienced quarterback.

The defence has been the foundation of the Cardinals season, and ranked inside the top ten by DVOA for most of the season. It is a unit that uses a large number of defensive backs and pressure to force mistakes and cover the modern passing game. They rely on their corners standing up in outside coverage so they can frequently blitz and this pressure has only increased as defensive coordinator Todd Bowles seems to have been given licence to take more risks given the issues the Cardinals are having on the offensive side of the ball.

I think that this should be a fascinating game between two teams with really good defences and I will be interested to see how the Cardinals cope with the Panthers running attack, and how they try to attack the Panthers defence.

Ravens @ Steelers

DVOA:                       Ravens                                    Steelers

Overall                        5th                                8th
Offensive                    9th                                 2nd
Defensive                    8th                                30th
Special Teams             2nd                                12th
The Saturday schedule is rounded out with what should be a bruising encounter between AFC North rivals.

The Steelers have had an erratic season with some huge wins, and horrible losses to bad teams, but they managed to win out in December to take the division. They have mainly done this behind an offence that is ranked second in the league by DVOA, and that can be truly terrifying. The problem is that a major cog in that offence, second year back Le’Veon Bell, who has looked like the best back in the league for long stretches of the season is going to miss this game with a knee injury he picked up in the final game against the Bengals. However, the way to attack this Ravens defence is through the air as their secondary has been hit hard by injuries, and the Steelers have the passing attack to do this. Whether they will be able to use the empty backfield sets with the running back split out as a receiver remains to be seen, but Antonio Brown is as good as any receiver in the league. The o-line has looked much more solid than has often been the case in recent Steelers seasons, and they will need to stand up in pass protection if they are going to have success this week.

Unusually for the Steelers, the defence has been the problem this season, ranked an uncharacteristic thirtieth by DVOA, they have been patchy with injuries and age apparently catching up with them. They have done okay in recent weeks and it has been noticeable that they have been leaving the younger secondary players in the line-up so they have consistent personnel rather than having the stalwarts Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu go in and out the line-up whilst they have been struggling with injuries. It is a sign of the problems that the Steelers have had that they pulled James Harrison out of retirement, but whilst he has shown flashes of his old self and has managed five and a half sacks in eleven games, this is a defence that has been merely coping for large parts of the season.

The Ravens are an interesting team that for large parts of the season looked like the most complete team in the AFC North, but couldn’t quite overcome the problems they developed in the secondary to win the division.

On offence the Ravens have looked good for most of the year, working behind a rejuvenated running game that saw Justin Forsett gain 1266 yards for the season, and a very solid season in the passing game. Joe Flacco has quietly thrown for nearly four thousands yards, and more importantly has throw twenty-seven touchdowns with only twelve interceptions. Steve Smith has been struggled to maintain the early hot start he had, but managed to gain over a thousand yards receiving and added some fire to the offence to go with Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels. This turn around from a DVOA ranking of thirtieth last year demonstrates what a good hire Gary Kubiak was as offensive coordinator.

The problem for the Ravens down the stretch has been the number of injuries they’ve had in the secondary. They have got away with this to an extent as they haven’t really faced a tough passing attack but this is going to change this week. The Ravens will have to hope that the fearsome combination of Elvis Dummervil and Terrell Suggs as pass rushers will get enough pressure to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers. It may well help that they are getting Haloti Ngata back from a four game suspension, particularly as the rookie tackle Timmy Jernigan who has been playing so well in Ngata’s absence will miss the game with a foot injury.

Whilst I would never discount the Ravens, I fear that their secondary will be exposed in this game and whilst Le’Veon Bell will be a huge miss for the Steelers, I think their passing game is more terrifying than anything the Ravens have to offer.

Bengals @ Colts

DVOA:                       Bengals                       Colts

Overall                        13th                              12th
Offensive                    18th                              17th
Defensive                    14th                              13th
Special Teams             6th                                8th
The Colts are an interesting case as if you look at the DVOA rankings, you would think this is a well balanced team. However, this is a team that is built on a couple of exceptionally good players that are masking what is to me an unconvincing roster. These are brave words considering the beating they gave the Bengals earlier in the season and how rotten the Bengals playoff results in recent years have been, but I will try to justify them below.

I’m not sure there is a team that relies more on their quarterback to win than the Colts. They have a running game that is ranked twenty-seventh in the league, and are a team who thought it was a good idea to trade a first round pick for Trent Richardson. This team goes where Andrew Luck takes them, but the o-line does not give him great protection and it is only because TY Hilton is amazing at getting open, and the support Coby Fleener and an ageing Reggie Wayne give in the passing game that Luck is able to drag them along. However, Luck has been throwing a lot of interceptions recently and has been having a big problem with fumbles. There is no question that Luck is a really good quarterback, but he can only overcome so much and this team ask him to do a lot.

On defence the Colts have played well in patches, and have a really good corner in Vontae Davis, but in truth I am surprised by their ranking by DVOA. That said, if you look at their record you can see problems against better teams as they got pounded by the Patriots in the run game, giving up 246 yards as part of five hundred yard day, and they gave up over six hundred yards against the Steelers. The Bengals have been running the ball really well recently behind rookie Jeremy Hill and they will need to hold up against this if they want to win.

The Bengals have coped pretty well since losing both coordinators from last year, but having said that it was a playoff win or bust this year, it all comes down to this game.

On offence, the talk of a commitment to the running game that there was in the offseason has solidified in recent weeks around a running game headed up by rookie Jeremy Hill with Giovani Bernard spelling him. There have been problems in the passing game with AJ Green battling injuries for large parts of the seasons and I suspect he will miss this game with a concussion. This is almost a microcosm of the problems this season as he’s been battling a bicep injury he sustained going for a ball that sailed on Andy Dalton, and picked up the concussion when trying to fight for yards at the end of the Steelers game. The problem with Andy Dalton is that whilst he has got his team into the playoffs for the first four years of his career, he can be inconsistent and these problems tend to surface in big games. That said, the Bengals looked good in getting their Monday night win against the Broncos, and new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is really helping Dalton succeed by focussing on the running game and asking him to do less, whilst it often felt like Jay Gruden was asking him to do too much in past years. The Patriots demonstrated that you can be physical and run on the Colts so hopefully this can work in this game.

On defence, the Bengals have slipped with the departure of Mike Zimmer to be head coach of the Vikings, and have struggled against the run for large parts of the season. They are top ten in pass defence, which is a measure of how good and deep their secondary is as the pass rush has been patchy all season. However, injuries at linebacker, particularly missing Vontaze Burfict for most of the season has really hurt them in the run game. The defence line has not been quite up to where it was last season, but Geno Atkins is still coming back to full form since his ACL injury and Margus Hunt has been out recently as they try to patch up the loss of Michael Geathers to the Buccaneers.

I think that the Bengals can finally win this game, and get revenge for the shut out loss earlier in the season. Both the Bengals and the Panthers came out flat the week after they played five quarters of football, and I think this contributed to the Bengals horrible loss against the Colts. If the Bengals can look after the ball and run the ball effectively, then they can finally get that playoff win and try to push on, but I would never count out a team with Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Lions @ Cowboys

DVOA:                       Lions                           Cowboys

Overall                        14th                              6th
Offensive                    19th                              4th
Defensive                    3rd                                22nd
Special Teams             31st                              13th
The final game of the weekend pits the Cowboys great offence against the Lions top notch defence.

The Cowboys finally got their winning season, but the overhaul on this team was not flashy, it was a sustained investment in the offensive line, which has resulted in one of the most impressive units in the league. The o-line enabled DeMarco Murray to break Emmitt Smith’s single season rushing record for the Cowboys and enabled him to become the only back to start the season with eight straight 100 yard games, breaking Jim Brown’s previous best of six. Not only have done this, but Tony Romo regularly gets such great protection that he can sit in the pocket for five or six seconds without having to worry about the oppositions pass rush. That said, they are going against the third ranked offense by DVOA, that will offer them a real challenge, but Romo has had more support than he’s ever had, and the results in the pass game have flourished alongside the running attack.

The Cowboys defence however, has been held together by smoke and mirrors all season, with co-ordinator Rod Marinelli crafting a credible defence with a dearth of talent. They are not spectacular, but they are playing hard for their coach who has been working overtime to create way to rush the passer and keep his team in games. This unit may be a problem if the Cowboys get deeper into the playoffs, but they might not be in this game.

The Lions have all the talent at the skill positions to be a good offence, even if Calvin Johnson has struggled with injury as they finally have a second receiver to go with him. In fact, Golden Tate has actually led the team in receiving yards and receptions this year, but the problem for this unit has been the o-line that has often struggled and this unit has never quite taken off except from when they’ve played the Bears. The other problem is that Matthew Stafford has never really convinced as a quarterback, and he has a habit of locking onto receivers, and whilst this is not exactly a bad plan when you are throwing to Calvin Johnson, it doesn’t necessarily win you the big game.

What has been winning games for this team has been the defence that I would have said was playing with more discipline this season. However, how Ndamukong Suh won his appeal having stomped on Aaron Rodgers I do not know. He has been part of a fearsome defensive line that has helped this defence lead the league in run defence by DVOA. They also have one of the league’s standout coverage linebackers in DeAndre Levy, and a pass defence that has been just as good as the rush defence.

This could very well be the game of the weekend, but I would think you just have to trust Tony Romo more than Mattew Stafford, who is 0-16 on the road against teams with a winning record. I’m not usually a fan of these kinds of statistics, but that one does seem to speak of a problem.

I’m really looking forward to this week’s games, so roll on the postseason football.