Category Archives: Gee’s Thoughts

Competition Thursday: 2022 Week Three

22 Thursday Sep 2022

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Having struggled to set into the early part of the season I’m actually getting a Competition Thursday post up for the first time in the 2022 season.

Dan and I kept pace with each other in week twp, whilst Russ dropped behind Dan. It is always a tricky week to get week two picks right as you try not to overreact to the week one results but also not ignore them.

Gee:Week 2:  7 – 9Overall:  17 – 15
Dan:Week 2:  7 – 9Overall:  13 – 19
RussWeek 2:  5 – 11Overall:  12 – 20

Steelers @ Browns (-5.5)

We have an AFC North bruising affair that sees the Steelers and Browns vying for an early lead in the division ahead of the weekend’s games. I saw a sign on Twitter of someone wondering if both teams could lose tonight, which I have some sympathy with as a Bengals fan, although it is well know how fond I am of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. I have to say, following a 1-1 start to the season where the Steelers have finished both games within three points of their opponent I’m surprised at the size of this line. I am interested to get a first look at the Browns, but I confess to being more than a little biased. Still, the numbers are backing my hunches and whilst I wouldn’t go as far as predicting a Steelers win, I certainly think they’ll keep the game within six.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Survivor Competition

I’m having a terrible start to the season as I was eliminated for a second time as well as seeing the Bengals fall to 0-2. Dan’s theory of backing Aaron Rodgers to continue his ownership of the Bears saw him get off the mark in week two and this week he’s backing the Ravens to beat the Patriots on the Road. I’m going for as sure a thing as I can think of this week, so I’m hoping I don’t jinx the Chiefs as they take on the winless Colts.

Current Score

Gee: 0
Dan: 1

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:     Chiefs @ Colts
Dan:    Ravens @ Patriots

Bold Prediction of the Week

After several minutes of squirming, having options refused as not qualifying according to Dan or simply not believable to me, I settled on the Jaguars to cover against the Chargers, which according to the ESPN line is to stay within eight points. I also thing that could be a sneaky good game given the Jaguars start to the season and the injuries to the offensive line of what has looked pretty good Chargers team.

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The Wait is Over, Now What Does the Future Bring?

22 Saturday Jan 2022

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Germaine Pratt!

And the wait was over.

I was sat on my couch at home, agonising over the closing of the game and driving my partner, who doesn’t like the NFL at the best of times, round the bend with my nervous energy and occasional outbursts at the telly.

And finally, in the last minute of the fourth quarter with the Raiders on the Bengals’ nine-yard line and looking for all the world like they could take the game into overtime when linebacker Germaine Pratt got in front of the Raiders’ receiver to grab the ball and make the interception so the Bengals could kneel out the game.

What I felt was relief.

I was so happy. I didn’t see the last Bengals playoff win in 1991. I’m pretty certain there was no way for me to see that game in the UK except for the highlights, but what I did see was the sequence of losses that plagued the Marvin Lewis era. A period where despite multiple seasons with strong rosters and the turn around of the Bengals from league laughing stock to genuine competitor, the Bengals just could not get over the hump.

The 2015 team is the season that still haunts me with how good the offence was and Andy Dalton’s thumb injury that did for us in the post season.

These are not those Bengals though. They had to work hard to beat a team who had played a full over-time period the week before, but they held together and in Joe Burrow’s own words, set the standard.

I don’t know if they will win tonight against the Tennessee Titans, a team I have a huge amount of respect for, particular with what head coach Mike Vrabel has done in his time in charge.

However, what I do know is that for the first time, and I mean the first time given I remember the loss to the 49ers in the second of the Bengals Super Bowl losses but I was nine and knew nothing of what was to come, I am excited about tonight’s playoff game. The thirty year wait is over and while a new one begins and could very well extend into next season, I don’t expect anything like what has just ended.

I was only looking for some genuine progress this year and I got so much more so it is time to sit back and see if Joe Burrow with one of the most exciting collection of skill players in the league can pull of another win, without the weight of the history of the last thirty years hanging around them.

And whilst those players will have had a very different experience to that history, they have changed the relationship of the fans to the team.

And so, we’re on to Tennessee.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Fifteen

16 Thursday Dec 2021

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We have what looks to be a cracking Thursday night game this week, though week fourteen was anything but cracking for me as Dan extended his lead to six games, and I’m looking at the fact that I have not won a picks competition in at least three, and by the looks of it four seasons now. Clearly the rethink I have hinted at in the last couple of years actually needs to happen in the offseason.

Meanwhile, as in so many places the number of Covid cases are rising in the NFL so picking could get very tricky in the upcoming weeks.

Gee:Week 14:  7 – 7Overall:  108 – 100
Dan:Week 14:  10 – 4Overall:  114 – 94

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3.5)

The Chiefs have found a formula for winning that’s got them six straight, with the addition of edge player Melvin Ingram via trade and the return of some of their injured defensive players the Chiefs are making lives difficult for teams despite only ranking seventeenth in defence by DVOA. They have held opponents to under twenty points in those six wins and if there is a concern, it is that the offence, whilst scoring big against the Raiders hasn’t been back to its explosive best, but if the defence can keep doing what it has been the Chiefs stand a good chance of solidifying themselves back amongst the challengers in the AFC.

The Chargers meanwhile have two very solid wins in their last two games and whilst many, including me, were wondering about their offence scheme and not taking enough of an advantage of Justin Herbert’s arm, they do seem to be pushing the ball more and the offence is now ranked third by DVOA. The defence still lags behind, but I do not believe Brandon Staley will make the same kind of mistakes as the Raiders’ Gus Bradley in scheming against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. This could well be another win for the Chiefs tonight, but with the Chargers at home on a short week getting an extra half point I’ll take that slightly nervously and hope I’m not overthinking my pick. Again…

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Survivor Competition

So it turns out that if Dan and I had the courage of our early convictions we would have been fine going with the Chargers to beat the Giants, but both the Packers and the Seahawks took care of us so we turn our attention to week fifteen, and I don’t mind telling you that it is getting pretty tough to find selections now.

After staring at the list for a while I have come up with the Dolphins beating the Jets at home and I just hope that it being a divisional game doesn’t trip me up. Despite Dan saying he hated all his options, I don’t hate his selection of the Chiefs to win, though it’s not an obvious one and might make for some nervous watching tonight.

Current Score

Gee: 10
Dan: 6

Week 15 Selection:

Gee:    Dolphins
Dan:    Chiefs

2021 Week Fourteen Picks

12 Sunday Dec 2021

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Well, both Dan and I took losses on Thursday, although with the Steelers remarkable comeback we had the chance of the cover despite Mike Tomlin’s team being 29-0 down until 2:11 in the third quarter. It can’t be fun being a fan of the Vikings this season.

I have also given Dan and I a Mulligan on the survivor picks this week given we both selected the Chargers before the news broke about the extent of the Covid-19 break out in their receiver room. Dan is now going against the Texans by taking Seattle, whilst I’m backing the Packers to beat the Bears given Aaron Rodgers’ ownership of the Bears. I just hope that quote and this pick doesn’t come back to bite me.

Dan:     Seahawks
Gee:     Packers

Early Games:

There’s a couple of big divisional games in the early slate and it’s one of them that I’m picking, although if you like bruising competitive football you could do a lot works that watch the Ravens taking on the Browns, but I have settled on the Cowboys travelling to Washington to take on the Football Team. The Cowboys are taking on a team who have won their last four games coming off their bye, whilst the Cowboys have gone 2-3 in the last five, though have had some injury/Covid-19 problems in this stretch. If the Cowboys are the team that we thought they were early in the season, they need to win this game to extend their lead at the top of the division. The truth is that whilst I have been impressed with the way Washington have found their feet since their bye, I have more faith in Dak Prescott to find a way through the Football Team’s defence than Taylor Heinicke not to have a turnover or two against an opportunistic Cowboys defence.

Points from the rest:

  • The Ravens’ injuries meet the Browns’s in what feels like it could be an absolute mess of a game. It’s certainly odd to see the Ravens ranked as lowly as sixteenth overall by DVOA but the Browns are only ranked two places higher and have distinctly whelmed this season.
  • You know it is bad when the league’s own website is carrying a story about the disfunction of your team. The Titans have a bunch of injuries and may well have problems covering this line, but it would be a genuine surprise if they lost to the Jaguars.
  • Divisional games are funny things, and I am still not convinced by the Chiefs’ offence, but their defence genuinely have found their feet and the Raiders insisted on playing the wrong defence the last time these two teams met and it’s hard to see Gus Bradley changing it up this time so whilst hesitant, I think the Chiefs may cover this one.
  • The Saints are so injured on offence, but the Jets have so far to go before they will be truly competitive, and the Saints have a really good defence so that’s where I’m inclined to pick in this one.
  • I’m not sure what to expect from the Panthers after the firing of Joe Brady, and the Falcons have been at least competitive so far this season so it’s hard to find a side in what is a meeting of two bad teams that is strangely intriguing as a watch.
  • The Seahawks still have a lot of problems, and it feels like there will big changes in the off-season, but the Texans are just plain bad and it feels like they are not even finding young players to build around for the future.

Ravens @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Jaguars @ Titans (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Raiders @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Saints @ Jets (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Seahawks @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Late Games:

The big game from the slate game must be the Bills trying to get over the tough loss to the Patriots on Monday by taking on the Buccaneers in Tampa. The absence of a Bills run game will be less of an issue against a defence that is one of the toughest to run against in the league and perhaps the bigger test will be the Bills defence going against Tom Brady on the road without corner Tre’Davious White who was lost for the season in week twelve. This was meant to be the year the Bills took the next step and instead they find themselves two games behind a Patriots team resurgent in 2021 despite a bad start to the season. The Bills have not had a marquee win since beating the Chiefs in week five and need a performance to settle the nerves and give themselves a platform to build on with their crucial return visit to New England in week sixteen on the horizon.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Broncos should beat the Lions as they have for the most part beaten the teams they should do and are at home, but there are plenty of questions around the Broncos as they still have not found a franchise quarterback and who knows how the Lions will respond to their first win of the season.
  • The Chargers will just be happy to get a win against the Giants given the issues they are having at receiver thanks to a Covid-19 outbreak. The Giants have been competitive at times this season, but it feels like they will be going into the offseason with more questions than answers after second year head coach Joe Judge struggled to build on some glimpses of hope from last season.
  • The Bengals had enough bad turnover luck last week that I am not freaking out about their loss to the Chargers, but the 49ers are not an easy team to beat and I don’t think any Bengals fan will feel relaxed about Joe Burrow’s hand problem until he’s got through the game looking good, even if he did nearly pull of the comeback last week with his hand swelling after the dislocation of his little finger. The 49ers are a strange team to pick this season and with Deebo Samuel and Eligah Mitchell injured they could struggle in this one.

Lions @ Broncos (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Giants @ Chargers (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

49ers @ Bengals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Bills @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Packers (-12.5)

This should be a marquee game, except the Bears have struggled all season and the Packers have only looked bad when Roders was out through Covid, although they did drop a game against the Vikings in week eleven. Still, coming off a bye with Rodgers talking about his toe feeling better it is hard to see anything other than a Packers win in this one, although whether it will be by thirteen is a different matter.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Cardinals (-2.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week and I’m just hoping I can find time to watch it at some point. That said, I’m not convinced that the Rams will silence their critics this week given their only win in four games was against the Jaguars last week. The Cardinals may still have questions about what they can do in the playoffs, but with a 10-2 record despite missing their starting quarterback for three weeks they are definitely a team to take seriously. A top three defence under Vance Joseph has every chance of causing problems for a Rams’ offence that hasn’t looked right until it faced the Jaguars, so I see the Cardinals as favourites in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Fourteen

09 Thursday Dec 2021

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I finally put together a strong week of picks and so was able to scramble a couple of points back from Dan, but it is getting to the business end of the season and I’m still three points behind so let’s see how the next couple of weeks go.

Gee:Week 13:  10 – 4Overall:  101 – 93
Dan:Week 13:  8 – 8Overall:  104 – 90

Steelers @ Vikings (-3.5)

I am definitely intrigued by tonight’s game as the Vikings seem to be stuck in a recurring nightmare of close losses and wins, while the Steelers feel like they are in a very similar place. I don’t have a strong feel for how this game will work out and I could be horribly wrong, but to me this line is off thanks to being over the key number of three so even though I don’t have a strong inclination for how this matchup will play out on the field, I am very happy to pick the Steelers. That just leaves me to watch the game without worrying if my analysis was right and I think it should be a pretty entertaining game too.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Survivor Competition

I am afraid Dan got eliminated again last week off the back of the Lions first win of the season, and this isn’t even the first time the Lions eliminated Dan despite only having one win on the board. He is also running out of weeks to catch me so can ill afford another slip up as the Colts kept me going with their routine looking win against the Texans on Sunday.

This week, I am going to be taking the Chargers as they are hosting the Giants and by coincidence so is Dan, although we are running out of teams at this point of the season.

Current Score

Gee: 9
Dan: 5

Week 14 Selection:

Gee:    Chargers
Dan:    Chargers

Bold Prediction

I completely understood why Dan vetoed my tentative suggestion of the Falcons to beat the Panthers as not being bold enough, but I’m not sure if last week’s results had an undue influence on me suggesting the Lions will be within three of the Broncos this weekend, but that’s what I went with on the pod so I just have to will it to be true I suppose.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Thanksgiving

25 Thursday Nov 2021

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It’s Thanksgiving, and as ever I am grateful for Dan indulging my love of the NFL, producing the podcast, and generally being a great friend.

Dan and I kept our noses above fifty percent in week eleven as Dan maintained his two point lead overall.

We turn our eyes to three games with it being Thanksgiving so let’s take a look at who is facing the Lions and Cowboys and what the extra game will be in 2021.

Gee:Week 11:  8-7Overall:  85–80
Dan:Week 11:  8-7Overall:  87–78

Bears @ Lions (+3.5)

The Lions ran the Browns close last week but couldn’t get that elusive win despite a distinctly, if understandable, subpar performance from Baker Mayfield who is carrying multiple injuries. On Thanksgiving the Lions host a Bears team with problems of their own as sections of fans are calling for head coach Matt Nagy to be fired. For the second Thanksgiving in a row Andy Dalton will be getting a start, this time for the Bears as they search for their first win since week five. To get a measure of the game, the Lions have not won a game since week thirteen in 2020 and given the Lions are choosing between Jared Goff dealing with an oblique injury that hasn’t healed and Tim Boyle who managed just seventy-seven passing yards last week it’s hard to have much faith they will turn things round. I am looking forward to seeing D’Andre Swift run the ball for the Lions but the highest ranking by DVOA of any unit in this game is the Lions’ special teams at fourth, and of the defence/offence units the Bears’ defence is the only one ranked above twenty.

I don’t have strong lean in this game, but if I’m getting three and a half points at home on a short week I guess I have to take the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Raiders @ Cowboys (-7.5)

Both teams are coming into this game after a loss, but at least with the Cowboys there is hope if they get some of their receivers and offensive line healthy. The good news for the Cowboys is their defence is top five in the league and held the Chiefs in check so you feel they should do a job against a Raiders offence who has struggled in recent weeks. Let’s be honest, the Raiders are trending in the wrong direction after all that has happened to them and although they are not a terrible team, it is hard to see where their next win is coming. That said, I just have this feeling that this one might be tighter than expected given the injuries to the Cowboys’ offence and so I am cautiously picking a sneaky cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Bills @ Saints (+4.5)

The Saints keep getting injuries and whilst they have found ways to stay competitive, I am not sure I see it holding this week with the raft of offensive players they have out. The Bills have slipped back into second in the AFC East, but there are some arguments that they are not that far away with a few given bounces. It is understandable that after three straight years of improvement that Josh Allen’s accuracy has fallen back a little, but it is jarring to see their top ranked defence by DVOA sit next to an offensive ranking of eighteenth. This is the fifth best team in the league going against the ninth and this is what make me nervous. I respect both coaches and defences, and I think it likely the Bills win but by five points? I don’t like this line at all but given that the Saints lost to the Eagles by eleven last week and don’t look to be getting players back on offence I am going to reluctantly grab the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Survivor Competition

I can see why Dan picked the Titans last week, but long streaks always make me nervous even if it was a surprise that the Texans got the win, which saw Dan get eliminated again whilst I picked up a point going with the Patriots.

This week Dan is backing the Cowboys to beat the Raiders, which is one of the safter selections when I look at the numbers. I am really struggling for picks this week thanks to it being week twelve and how the matchups have fallen. I don’t feel super confident about it, but given the options I find myself taking the Eagles on the road against the Giants, which is placing a lot on the recent form of the Eagles but I have a bit of a cushion and I just hope picking a survivor is not this tough ever week going forward…

Current Score

Gee: 8
Dan: 5

Week 12 Selection:

Gee:    Eagles
Dan:    Cowboys

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction after really struggling was the Texans to beat the Jets, which Dan allowed but you could hear him being suitably unimpressed and this was before they lost Mike White and Joe Flacco to Covid. I still have not found something leaping out at me, but given the stiuation witht he Jets’ QBs I may yet update this on Sunday if inspiration strikes!

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Eleven

18 Thursday Nov 2021

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I unfortunately scored the inverse to Dan in another bad week for picks, which saw Dan open up a two point lead as I fell closer to a fifty percent win percentage.

Gee:Week 10:  6 – 8Overall:  77 – 73
Dan:Week 10:  8 – 6Overall:  79 – 71

Patriots @ Falcons (+6.5)

I don’t know if I cursed the Falcons by expressing an interest last week, but they got beat heavily by the Cowboys on Sunday. Now they have questions around Cordarrelle Patterson’s ankle injury and face possibly the worst defence for them on a short week in their current iteration. You have to think that Bill Belichick will have plans for rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, and the Patriots should have more than enough pass rush to make life difficult for Matt Ryan behind an offensive line that struggled to protect him against the Cowboys.

So far this season Mac Jones has been the pick of the rookie quarterbacks, and whilst this has not resulted in a dynamic passing offence, the Patriots have a formula that is definitely working for them now that they seem to be over their traditional slow start.

I’m always concerned laying points on the road on a Thursday night, but I think these are two teams heading in different directions right now.

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Survivor Competition

Neither Dan or I managed to survive last week, with Dan’s faith in the Steelers undermined by a late Covid-19 scratch for Ben Roethlisberger while the addition of Cam Newton seemed to do for me.

I don’t think either of us should feel too bad about last week’s results, but we both need to get back on track this week. My strategy for this would be to back the Titans to keep their win streak going against the Texans, even if I am giving the Texans a hard look as a underdog cover for Sunday, but Dan pipped me to that selection.

As a result I’m stealing an option he was considering but isn’t available to him and I’m grabbing the Patriots going against the Falcons.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 5

Week 11 Selection:

Gee:    Titans
Dan:    Patriots

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction for the week definitely counts as bold.

For all that the Chiefs have won three in a row and have taken the lead in the AFC West, the Packers were without Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott has the options at the skills positions to work round an improving Chiefs pass rush. Not to mention that the Cowboys defence currently matches the offence in DVOA ranking as both units are ranked fourth.

This is the third overall team by DVOA in the Cowboys versus the fourteenth in the Chiefs, and yet in a fit of podcast pressure I have predicted the Chiefs will win. I don’t know that my pick this Sunday will follow this…

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2021 Week Ten Picks

14 Sunday Nov 2021

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Dan had seen the Dolphins win one game in eight weeks and then got treated to two back-to-back as they did the unexpected and beat the Ravens 22-10 Thursday night. The big question for me is where has that defence been since last season? I’m still not used to seeing a number eight flying around in the secondary, but Dolphins’ rookie safety Jevon Holland certainly caught the eye and whilst I’d need to watch the all-twenty-two to really know how he played, what I did see certainly impressed. That said, it’s not like the Ravens couldn’t move the ball at all, but they struggled to sustain drives and having taken an early lead through a field-goal, they did not score again until the fourth with Justin Tucker even suffering a rare field-goal miss. The Dolphins won the turnover battle and needed their defence to be so good as their offence struggled and even in throwing the winning touchdown, Tua Tagovailoa didn’t exactly inspire when he came in for injured start Jacoby Brissett, but Tagovailoa did complete the longest pass of the day for the Dolphins with a sixty-four yard pass to Albert Wilson. To be fair Brissett did have his own fifty-yard completion to Isaiah Ford but instead of another field goal that was the result of the Brisset led drive, Tagovailoa and the offence got the game sealing touchdown to make sure of the game after the Ravens threatened to make another comeback with their only touchdown of the game.

There is still half a season for the Dolphins to build something they can push on from next year, although the problem with that thinking is that for an NFL team every new season creates a team this is its own entity, but 3-7 is already looking a lot better than 1-7. The Ravens will be hoping that this result can be explained as a blip on a short week coming off an overtime game that saw them play a full extra ten minutes, which really might be enough to explain their display in this game.

Early Games:

Week ten looks to be a week of intrigue rather than games that immediately leap off the page, but as ever I’m sure there will be plenty to delve into once things get going.

The best game of the early slate initially looked to be the Saints visiting the Titans, although in addition to the injuries at quarterback the Saints have now also lost Alvin Kamara. The Titans obviously have their own running back questions now they are starting Adrian Peterson in place of Derek Henry, but also have Julio Jones battling a hamstring problem he aggravated in practice on Thursday. The Titans have the best record in the AFC despite being decidedly middle of the pack with an overall ranking of fourteenth by DVOA, while the Saints are ranked eighth overall despite uneven quarterback play thanks to their strong defence. I’m not sure about the Saints winning on the road but given the circumstances I’m not sure the Titans are going to win by more than a field goal.

The Browns are coming off something of a statement win against the Bengals last week, but while Baker Mayfield looked better last week, the Brown are without Nick Chubb thanks to Covid-19 and head into the weekend with only D’Ernest Johnson available from the running back room until they activated Brian Hill from the practice squad. They are heading to face a New England team using a familiar formula to win games, which they have done in four of their last five. This should be a good if run focussed game and I have a feeling that the Patriots are likely to win out.

Points from the rest:

  • I want to watch the Falcons this week as they’ve dragged themselves back to 4-4 despite an overall ranking of thirty-first by DVOA and have managed to build receiver Cordarrelle Patterson into a dual threat running back at age thirty. You have to think that the Broncos heavy defeat of the Cowboys last week was a blip, but the Cowboys will want to look a lot better this week.
  • The Jaguars got a good performance from their defence, perhaps benefitting from the troubles the Bills’ offence has been having recently, but are still not a good football team and with the Colts running the ball well and winning four of their last six games (the two losses were in overtime) should have more than enough to win this one even if the line is too large to pick them to cover.
  • The Bills offence seems to have been struggling in recent weeks and this culminated in a surprising loss to the Jaguars last week. They will need to get back to winning ways quickly with the Patriots catching them in the division. The Bills number one defence by DVOA will be facing Mike White getting his third straight start for the Jets, and whilst I’m not sure we can predict another loss for the Bills, I certainly like the Jets to get the sneaky cover given the size of the line.
  • I already kind of like the Lions against a Steelers team who despite their great record under Mike Tomlin have been known to play down to their opposition at times, but with the news that Ben Roethlisberger is set to miss the game with Covid-19 I’m definitely going to risk the Lions getting the cover.
  • The Washington Football Team are just having a horrible season, and I see little to dissuade me that the Buccaneers will get the win coming of a bye, even if receiver Chris Godwin is dealing with a foot injury.

Falcons @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Saints @ Titans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Jaguars @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Browns @ Patriots (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Bills @ Jets (+13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Steelers (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Buccaneers @ Washington (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Late Games:

The obvious match up of the late games is the returning quarterback bowl that sees the Packers with Aaron Rodgers activated after his Covid-19 infection hosting a Seahawks team who will be welcoming Russell Wilson back from a fracture/torn ligament in his finger. The Seahawks were competitive starting Geno Smith (1-2 as the starter) while the Packers will be looking to bounce back after a rough game against the Chiefs that they could have won with better field-goal kicking. Still, the Packers’ defence has looked good and the offence is likely to bounce back with Rodgers back at quarterback and I like them to win this games, but that extra half-point and what I’m seeing in my numbers makes just about pick the Seahawks to get the cover.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Cardinals look like they might be trying to get another win without their starting quarterback Kyler Murray, but the Panther’s sixth ranked defence by DVOA should be a stiffer test than the 49ers defence. However, the Panthers are starting PJ Walker at quarterback with Sam Darnold still injured, and given the Panthers have just signed Cam Newton they can’t be happy with their quarterback situation as the team have slipped from a 3-0 to 4-5. The line gives me pause but the Cardinal have to fancy their chances of getting another win.
  • The Vikings visit to the Chargers feels like a game destined to be decided by a last-minute field goal, with either team as likely to suffer a horrible miss as as a scoring kick. The Chargers sit atop the AFC West with the Raiders despite a shaky few weeks while the Vikings cannot seem to put together a run of wins despite a top ten defence by DVOA and Kirk Cousins putting up impressive passing numbers.
  • The Broncos got a huge win last week, seeming to re-enforce the front office’s faith they could continue to compete this season whilst making a solid trade of Von Miller who was unlikely to re-sign next season so the trade allowed them to gain multiple draft picks. I’m not sure I totally trust them against an Eagles team who followed up their big win against the Lions in week eight with a close loss against the Chargers, but I think the Broncos should win.

Panthers @ Cardinals (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Vikings @ Chargers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Eagles @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

It feels a little like the Raiders have hit a critical mass of off-field turmoil, even if Derek Carr has repeatedly sounded like the exact kind of leader you would want in such a situation. This week the Raiders welcome a Chiefs team who are still struggling on offence, but whose defence made life miserable for the Packers’ Jordan Love in the young quarterback’s first start last week. However, Derek Carr has been playing like a franchise quarterback this season and now has Desean Jackson to play the Ruggs role of stretching the field. This is the kind of divisional game where any result is possible, but for some reason I feel like the Chiefs are more likely to win but I wouldn’t be surprised if this pick went horribly wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Rams @ 49ers (+3.5)

Week ten finishes with what should be a tasty divisional matchup, except that the 49ers are a confounding team with only three wins despite being ranked top ten overall by DVOA. The Rams lost their second game of the season last week but have in recent weeks both traded for Von Miller and just signed Odell Beckham Jr, which they might be extra relieved about with Robert Woods tearing his ACL in practice on Friday. Remarkably, Woods hurt his knee but managed to finish the session before discovering the true extent of his injury, but this does increase the need for Beckam to get acclimatised to his new team quickly. Given how well the Rams have played for the majority of the season I expect they will win this one, but the 49ers knack of being competitive does make me a little worried about the line.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Ten

11 Thursday Nov 2021

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It will have to be a quick one this week, which suits me as I don’t really want to dwell on a brutal week of picks. That said, Dan only picked up one more point than me so at halfway through the regular season we are tied and with winning records.

Gee:Week 9:  5 – 9Overall:  71 – 65
Dan:Week 9:  6 – 8Overall:  71 – 65

Ravens @ Dolphins (+7.5)

Strange things can happen in the NFL so we can’t rule out the Dolphins entirely from springing a surprise on the Ravens tonight but it doesn’t seem likely. The broken finger of Tua Tagovailoa is more grist to the mill of those saying he was a bad pick, and the stop start nature of his career so far surely can’t help his development. However, let’s be honest, the far more shocking thing is the play of the defence this season that has slipped from a ranking of eleventh by DVOA last year to twenty-fifth. There is a part of me that wonders if on a short week the Ravens will be happy to just get the win, but with Lamar Jackson throwing the ball as well as he’s running it this season I simply can’t bring myself to pick a close game.

Gee’s Pick:     Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

Survivor Competition

Well, I  suffered my second elimination of the season last week, and I have a feeling a lot of people will have been eliminated by the Cowboys laying an egg against the Bronos having won without Dak Prescott the week before. Dan’s faith in the Dolphins going against the Texans was born out and so he’s pegged me back to a 7-5 lead. This week Dan has gone for the Steelers, or against the Lions as I suspect the case is at this point, while bolstered by their impressive win last week I’m going to grab the Cardinals hosting the Panthers.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 5

Week 10 Selection:

Gee:    Cardinals
Dan:    Steelers

Bold Prediction of the Week

Another week, another prediction I’m not happy about this one but mine is not to reason why with my podcast producer or the vagaries of my mind so this week’s bold prediction is for the Seahawks to beat the Packers.

2021 Week Nine Picks

07 Sunday Nov 2021

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I went into the Thursday night game with a renewed interest in the Jets taking on the Colts, but unfortunately the hope for a true contest was dashed after the Jet’s former practice squad quarterback Mike White (fresh from a four-hundred-yard game in his first start last week) returned to the side-line in the first quarter having scored an equalising touchdown with a forearm injury that ultimately saw White miss the rest of the game. For a third string quarterback Josh Johnson had a pretty decent game in place of White, but while the Jets were able to come back late in the game, they had really already lost by half time and this was largely due to calamitous run defence. For all the talk of Carson Wentz this season, this game belongs to Jonathan Taylor who ran forh one hundred and seventy-two yards and two touchdowns including a seventy-eight-yard touchdown run. The Colts as a team ran for two hundred and sixty yards and will face sterner tests this season but having now got four wins out of six after starting 0-3 they are dragging themselves into the playoff the picture. The playoffs were never an option for the Jets this season, and in the last couple of weeks they have shown some good moments on offence, although you’d really want them from your second overall pick Zach Wilson but the defensive woes are definitely a concern. Rookie running back Michael Carter has now impressed me for two weeks in a row and if the Jets can keep finding players to build around then they could finally start to be truly competitive again.

Early Games:

The early games are a bit of a mixed bag this week and so with no game particularly leaping out at me I shall cheat a little and go with my own team. The battle of Ohio is always a physical game, and you can’t trust the Bengals yet, but at home following a three week streak of road games they will be hoping to pounce on a literally wounded Browns team who are struggling with injuries. The Browns might well rally around the departure of disgruntled receiver Odell Beckham Jnr, but whilst I think Kevin Stefanski is likely the better head coach, the Bengals have the better quarterback (to be fair Baker Mayfield is playing through a tough injury in his non-throwing shoulder) and I would like to think they should get back to winning ways after last week’s loss to the Jets. If they lose again though then questions will need to be asked, but let’s not worry about them reverting to type before they lose a fourth game.

Points from the rest:

  • The Cowboys had the luxury last week of taking their time with Dak Prescott coming back from a calf strain thanks to their hold on the NFC East, and then still got the win thanks to a solid performance from Cooper Rush. It looks like Prescott will be back this week and with the Broncos trading away Von Miller they are making some long term moves while trying to stay competitive. It’s hard to see the Broncos getting the upset on the road given the way the Cowboys have been playing this season.
  • The Dolphins hosting the Texans sees two teams looking at an opportunity to break their seven game losing streaks, but whilst the Dolphins go into this game as favourites, I do wonder what the return of Tyrod Taylor will do for the Texans as he has not played since week two.
  • The New Orleans Saints lost Jameis Winston for the season last week, but while the driver of conversation this week was whether Trevor Siemian would get the start at quarterback over utility QB and special teams player Taysom Hill, the driver of the Saints success this season is their defence. The Falcons are rock bottom in the NFL by DVOA so they have done pretty well to get three win but despite it being a divisional game, it is hard to see the Falcons triumphing, although not impossible.
  • The Raiders’ players must be reeling given that fresh off the revelations and resignation of Jon Gruden, Henry Ruggs as been involved in a DUI that cost someone their life. The important thing about that whole situation is the family who are grieving for their lost, but the NFL stops for very little so it’s hard to predict how the Raiders will react in their game against a Giants team who are a team I don’t feel I have a handle on at all this season.
  • The Panthers look like they might get Christian McCaffery back this week, but Sam Darnold hasn’t cleared concussion protocol and has a shoulder problem. After a strong start to the season, the Panthers have fallen back to 4-4 whilst the Patriots have the same record but have built back from a 1-3 start and surely must be the favourites coming into this game.
  • The Jaguars are a bad football team and even first overall pick Trevor Lawrence looked poor last week so whilst you can’t absolutely rule out a surprise result, it’s very hard to see anything other than a Bills win in a game that pits the first overall team by DVOA against the thirtieth.
  • The Ravens host the Vikings in a game that has potential to be competitive, but the Vikings are a hard team to predict. Yes Kirk Cousins is playing well, but it seems you can’t trust him in the big moments and the Vikings are a team who seem to struggle to put all phases of the game together on the same day. The Ravens might have some issues in their secondary but are coming off a bye following their loss to the Bengals and will be desperate to get back to winning ways.

Browns @ Bengals (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Texans @ Dolphins (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Falcons @ Saints (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Raiders @ Giants (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Patriots @ Panthers (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Bills @ Jaguars (+14.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Vikings @ Ravens (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Late Games:

It’s a small slate of games in the late slot this week and a slightly curious bunch. The Packers visiting the Chiefs should have been a game of the week contest between Aaron Rodgers against Patrick Mahomes except the Chiefs are struggling on both sides of the ball whilst Rodgers has tested positive for Covid-19. It has been revealed that Rodgers is both unvaccinated and listening to well know medical ‘expert’ podcast host Joe Rogan so there could well be wider consequences, but for this game we get a chance to see Jordan Love get his most meaningful game time in his first NF start. It is hard to predict how that will pay out but given the swing in line with Roders out it is hard to back the Packers with the line we have.

Meanwhile, the divisional matchup between the Cardinals and 49ers is something of a different contest than their week five meeting now that JJ Watt is done for the year and Kyler Murray is dealing with an ankle injury. The 49ers got their first win since week two last week as Jimmy Garoppolo looked a lot better in his second week back from his own injury problem. I don’t think it is time for the Cardinals to panic, but after a 7-0 start they will be hoping that things are not falling apart as they approach the halfway point of their season.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Eagles made anyone predicting a Lions win last week look very silly as they remembered how to run the ball and utterly dominated that game. The Chargers have lost two straight games and the talk is that they need to do something to tweak their offence and certainly a loss to the Eagles would raise questions given how they looked early in the season.

Chargers @ Eagles (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Packers @ Chiefs (-2.5)\

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Titans @ Rams (-7.5)

With the loss of Derick Henry this isn’t the game we would have been hoping for a week ago. We shall have to see how the Titans remake their offence and the Rams are not an easy team to do that against. The Rams had a top ten defence before adding Von Miller to their pass rush, and the offence has been scary to the point that they felt comfortable releasing DeSean Jackson this week as he was not happy with his playing time. There will be things to take away from this game, and head coach Mike Vrabel has a real knack for making the Titans competitive, but it’s hard to look past the Rams in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Monday Night Football

Bears @ Steelers (-6.5)

The final game of the week is a bit of an odd contest. For all the noise and angst about quarterbacks the Bears are 3-5 going into their game with a Steelers team who have won three straight but have not looked like a true contender. That said, you are always going to be in a tough game playing the Steelers and their defence ranks tenth in the league by DVOA even if offence is a struggling twenty-first. The Bears might have found their quarterback of the future, but the current combination of GM and head coach has not convinced and it’s one thing to beat a Lions team by thirty-eight and another to go against a team coached by Mike Tomlin, even if Ben Roethlisberger is nothing like the quarterback he used to be. I think the Steelers are very likely to win this game but the number is definitely giving me problems.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.