Well, both Dan and I took losses on Thursday, although with the Steelers remarkable comeback we had the chance of the cover despite Mike Tomlin’s team being 29-0 down until 2:11 in the third quarter. It can’t be fun being a fan of the Vikings this season.

I have also given Dan and I a Mulligan on the survivor picks this week given we both selected the Chargers before the news broke about the extent of the Covid-19 break out in their receiver room. Dan is now going against the Texans by taking Seattle, whilst I’m backing the Packers to beat the Bears given Aaron Rodgers’ ownership of the Bears. I just hope that quote and this pick doesn’t come back to bite me.

Dan:     Seahawks
Gee:     Packers

Early Games:

There’s a couple of big divisional games in the early slate and it’s one of them that I’m picking, although if you like bruising competitive football you could do a lot works that watch the Ravens taking on the Browns, but I have settled on the Cowboys travelling to Washington to take on the Football Team. The Cowboys are taking on a team who have won their last four games coming off their bye, whilst the Cowboys have gone 2-3 in the last five, though have had some injury/Covid-19 problems in this stretch. If the Cowboys are the team that we thought they were early in the season, they need to win this game to extend their lead at the top of the division. The truth is that whilst I have been impressed with the way Washington have found their feet since their bye, I have more faith in Dak Prescott to find a way through the Football Team’s defence than Taylor Heinicke not to have a turnover or two against an opportunistic Cowboys defence.

Points from the rest:

• The Ravens’ injuries meet the Browns’s in what feels like it could be an absolute mess of a game. It’s certainly odd to see the Ravens ranked as lowly as sixteenth overall by DVOA but the Browns are only ranked two places higher and have distinctly whelmed this season.
• You know it is bad when the league’s own website is carrying a story about the disfunction of your team. The Titans have a bunch of injuries and may well have problems covering this line, but it would be a genuine surprise if they lost to the Jaguars.
• Divisional games are funny things, and I am still not convinced by the Chiefs’ offence, but their defence genuinely have found their feet and the Raiders insisted on playing the wrong defence the last time these two teams met and it’s hard to see Gus Bradley changing it up this time so whilst hesitant, I think the Chiefs may cover this one.
• The Saints are so injured on offence, but the Jets have so far to go before they will be truly competitive, and the Saints have a really good defence so that’s where I’m inclined to pick in this one.
• I’m not sure what to expect from the Panthers after the firing of Joe Brady, and the Falcons have been at least competitive so far this season so it’s hard to find a side in what is a meeting of two bad teams that is strangely intriguing as a watch.
• The Seahawks still have a lot of problems, and it feels like there will big changes in the off-season, but the Texans are just plain bad and it feels like they are not even finding young players to build around for the future.

Ravens @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Jaguars @ Titans (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Raiders @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Saints @ Jets (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Seahawks @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Late Games:

The big game from the slate game must be the Bills trying to get over the tough loss to the Patriots on Monday by taking on the Buccaneers in Tampa. The absence of a Bills run game will be less of an issue against a defence that is one of the toughest to run against in the league and perhaps the bigger test will be the Bills defence going against Tom Brady on the road without corner Tre’Davious White who was lost for the season in week twelve. This was meant to be the year the Bills took the next step and instead they find themselves two games behind a Patriots team resurgent in 2021 despite a bad start to the season. The Bills have not had a marquee win since beating the Chiefs in week five and need a performance to settle the nerves and give themselves a platform to build on with their crucial return visit to New England in week sixteen on the horizon.

Points on the Rest:

• The Broncos should beat the Lions as they have for the most part beaten the teams they should do and are at home, but there are plenty of questions around the Broncos as they still have not found a franchise quarterback and who knows how the Lions will respond to their first win of the season.
• The Chargers will just be happy to get a win against the Giants given the issues they are having at receiver thanks to a Covid-19 outbreak. The Giants have been competitive at times this season, but it feels like they will be going into the offseason with more questions than answers after second year head coach Joe Judge struggled to build on some glimpses of hope from last season.
• The Bengals had enough bad turnover luck last week that I am not freaking out about their loss to the Chargers, but the 49ers are not an easy team to beat and I don’t think any Bengals fan will feel relaxed about Joe Burrow’s hand problem until he’s got through the game looking good, even if he did nearly pull of the comeback last week with his hand swelling after the dislocation of his little finger. The 49ers are a strange team to pick this season and with Deebo Samuel and Eligah Mitchell injured they could struggle in this one.

Lions @ Broncos (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Giants @ Chargers (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

49ers @ Bengals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Bills @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Packers (-12.5)

This should be a marquee game, except the Bears have struggled all season and the Packers have only looked bad when Roders was out through Covid, although they did drop a game against the Vikings in week eleven. Still, coming off a bye with Rodgers talking about his toe feeling better it is hard to see anything other than a Packers win in this one, although whether it will be by thirteen is a different matter.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Cardinals (-2.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week and I’m just hoping I can find time to watch it at some point. That said, I’m not convinced that the Rams will silence their critics this week given their only win in four games was against the Jaguars last week. The Cardinals may still have questions about what they can do in the playoffs, but with a 10-2 record despite missing their starting quarterback for three weeks they are definitely a team to take seriously. A top three defence under Vance Joseph has every chance of causing problems for a Rams’ offence that hasn’t looked right until it faced the Jaguars, so I see the Cardinals as favourites in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Dan had seen the Dolphins win one game in eight weeks and then got treated to two back-to-back as they did the unexpected and beat the Ravens 22-10 Thursday night. The big question for me is where has that defence been since last season? I’m still not used to seeing a number eight flying around in the secondary, but Dolphins’ rookie safety Jevon Holland certainly caught the eye and whilst I’d need to watch the all-twenty-two to really know how he played, what I did see certainly impressed. That said, it’s not like the Ravens couldn’t move the ball at all, but they struggled to sustain drives and having taken an early lead through a field-goal, they did not score again until the fourth with Justin Tucker even suffering a rare field-goal miss. The Dolphins won the turnover battle and needed their defence to be so good as their offence struggled and even in throwing the winning touchdown, Tua Tagovailoa didn’t exactly inspire when he came in for injured start Jacoby Brissett, but Tagovailoa did complete the longest pass of the day for the Dolphins with a sixty-four yard pass to Albert Wilson. To be fair Brissett did have his own fifty-yard completion to Isaiah Ford but instead of another field goal that was the result of the Brisset led drive, Tagovailoa and the offence got the game sealing touchdown to make sure of the game after the Ravens threatened to make another comeback with their only touchdown of the game.

There is still half a season for the Dolphins to build something they can push on from next year, although the problem with that thinking is that for an NFL team every new season creates a team this is its own entity, but 3-7 is already looking a lot better than 1-7. The Ravens will be hoping that this result can be explained as a blip on a short week coming off an overtime game that saw them play a full extra ten minutes, which really might be enough to explain their display in this game.

Early Games:

Week ten looks to be a week of intrigue rather than games that immediately leap off the page, but as ever I’m sure there will be plenty to delve into once things get going.

The best game of the early slate initially looked to be the Saints visiting the Titans, although in addition to the injuries at quarterback the Saints have now also lost Alvin Kamara. The Titans obviously have their own running back questions now they are starting Adrian Peterson in place of Derek Henry, but also have Julio Jones battling a hamstring problem he aggravated in practice on Thursday. The Titans have the best record in the AFC despite being decidedly middle of the pack with an overall ranking of fourteenth by DVOA, while the Saints are ranked eighth overall despite uneven quarterback play thanks to their strong defence. I’m not sure about the Saints winning on the road but given the circumstances I’m not sure the Titans are going to win by more than a field goal.

The Browns are coming off something of a statement win against the Bengals last week, but while Baker Mayfield looked better last week, the Brown are without Nick Chubb thanks to Covid-19 and head into the weekend with only D’Ernest Johnson available from the running back room until they activated Brian Hill from the practice squad. They are heading to face a New England team using a familiar formula to win games, which they have done in four of their last five. This should be a good if run focussed game and I have a feeling that the Patriots are likely to win out.

Points from the rest:

• I want to watch the Falcons this week as they’ve dragged themselves back to 4-4 despite an overall ranking of thirty-first by DVOA and have managed to build receiver Cordarrelle Patterson into a dual threat running back at age thirty. You have to think that the Broncos heavy defeat of the Cowboys last week was a blip, but the Cowboys will want to look a lot better this week.
• The Jaguars got a good performance from their defence, perhaps benefitting from the troubles the Bills’ offence has been having recently, but are still not a good football team and with the Colts running the ball well and winning four of their last six games (the two losses were in overtime) should have more than enough to win this one even if the line is too large to pick them to cover.
• The Bills offence seems to have been struggling in recent weeks and this culminated in a surprising loss to the Jaguars last week. They will need to get back to winning ways quickly with the Patriots catching them in the division. The Bills number one defence by DVOA will be facing Mike White getting his third straight start for the Jets, and whilst I’m not sure we can predict another loss for the Bills, I certainly like the Jets to get the sneaky cover given the size of the line.
• I already kind of like the Lions against a Steelers team who despite their great record under Mike Tomlin have been known to play down to their opposition at times, but with the news that Ben Roethlisberger is set to miss the game with Covid-19 I’m definitely going to risk the Lions getting the cover.
• The Washington Football Team are just having a horrible season, and I see little to dissuade me that the Buccaneers will get the win coming of a bye, even if receiver Chris Godwin is dealing with a foot injury.

Falcons @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Saints @ Titans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Jaguars @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Browns @ Patriots (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Bills @ Jets (+13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Steelers (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Buccaneers @ Washington (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Late Games:

The obvious match up of the late games is the returning quarterback bowl that sees the Packers with Aaron Rodgers activated after his Covid-19 infection hosting a Seahawks team who will be welcoming Russell Wilson back from a fracture/torn ligament in his finger. The Seahawks were competitive starting Geno Smith (1-2 as the starter) while the Packers will be looking to bounce back after a rough game against the Chiefs that they could have won with better field-goal kicking. Still, the Packers’ defence has looked good and the offence is likely to bounce back with Rodgers back at quarterback and I like them to win this games, but that extra half-point and what I’m seeing in my numbers makes just about pick the Seahawks to get the cover.

Points on the Rest:

• The Cardinals look like they might be trying to get another win without their starting quarterback Kyler Murray, but the Panther’s sixth ranked defence by DVOA should be a stiffer test than the 49ers defence. However, the Panthers are starting PJ Walker at quarterback with Sam Darnold still injured, and given the Panthers have just signed Cam Newton they can’t be happy with their quarterback situation as the team have slipped from a 3-0 to 4-5. The line gives me pause but the Cardinal have to fancy their chances of getting another win.
• The Vikings visit to the Chargers feels like a game destined to be decided by a last-minute field goal, with either team as likely to suffer a horrible miss as as a scoring kick. The Chargers sit atop the AFC West with the Raiders despite a shaky few weeks while the Vikings cannot seem to put together a run of wins despite a top ten defence by DVOA and Kirk Cousins putting up impressive passing numbers.
• The Broncos got a huge win last week, seeming to re-enforce the front office’s faith they could continue to compete this season whilst making a solid trade of Von Miller who was unlikely to re-sign next season so the trade allowed them to gain multiple draft picks. I’m not sure I totally trust them against an Eagles team who followed up their big win against the Lions in week eight with a close loss against the Chargers, but I think the Broncos should win.

Panthers @ Cardinals (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Vikings @ Chargers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Eagles @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

It feels a little like the Raiders have hit a critical mass of off-field turmoil, even if Derek Carr has repeatedly sounded like the exact kind of leader you would want in such a situation. This week the Raiders welcome a Chiefs team who are still struggling on offence, but whose defence made life miserable for the Packers’ Jordan Love in the young quarterback’s first start last week. However, Derek Carr has been playing like a franchise quarterback this season and now has Desean Jackson to play the Ruggs role of stretching the field. This is the kind of divisional game where any result is possible, but for some reason I feel like the Chiefs are more likely to win but I wouldn’t be surprised if this pick went horribly wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Rams @ 49ers (+3.5)

Week ten finishes with what should be a tasty divisional matchup, except that the 49ers are a confounding team with only three wins despite being ranked top ten overall by DVOA. The Rams lost their second game of the season last week but have in recent weeks both traded for Von Miller and just signed Odell Beckham Jr, which they might be extra relieved about with Robert Woods tearing his ACL in practice on Friday. Remarkably, Woods hurt his knee but managed to finish the session before discovering the true extent of his injury, but this does increase the need for Beckam to get acclimatised to his new team quickly. Given how well the Rams have played for the majority of the season I expect they will win this one, but the 49ers knack of being competitive does make me a little worried about the line.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

The Thursday night game was tense and went to the wire, but between injuries and Covid-19 it maybe never truly took off. Both sides were dealing with injuries, the Green Bay Packers lost perhaps the best receiver in the NFL as well as their defensive coordinator to the Covid-19 list, whilst the Cardinals were already dealing with JJ Watt gone for the rest of the season and the loss of their starting centre Max Garcia before DeAndre Hopkins aggravated a hamstring injury that had put him on the injury report during the week. The Packers perhaps unsurprisingly focussed on running the ball and dominated the time of possession as Aaron Rodgers found himself dealing with an increased number of drops and unusually managing the offence rather than being the fulcrum. We shall have to see how much the loss of JJ Watt and other injuries hurt the Cardinals defence over the coming weeks, but after a spectacular route where Hopkins slowed and then used a burst of pace to get away from the Packer’s corner to catch a deep pass he tweaked his hamstring and came out the game. Kyler Murray threw for two hundred and fifty yards but no touchdowns and two interceptions, the last of which saw Murray on the wrong page with AJ Green and Rasul Douglas sealed the 24-21 win for the Packers inside his own end zone.

It will be a hard loss for the Cardinals to take, and even though they are in a very good position, they will need to regroup and come out firing given how the injury list has grown recently. The Packers lost tight end Robert Tonyan to an ACL tear in this game, but will get Devante Adams back from the Covid-19 and you would expect them to keep finding ways to win this game. The Packers are in complete control of their division, while the Cardinals are looking back at the 6-1 Rams but with how the teams are positioned in the NFC it would be a surprise to see the Cardinals slip out of contention and there could very easily be a rematch of this contest in the playoffs come January.

Early Games:

The early games are a bit of a mixed bag. It was always going to be tough to compete with the Thursday night game this week, but for me the tie of the early games is the Tennessee Titans heading to their divisional rivals the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans are coming off wins against the Bills and the Chiefs having won three straight and look to have found themselves whilst the Colts are two games back have won three out of their last four games following an 0-3 start to the season. The DVOA rankings still don’t like the Titans, placing them twentieth overall while the Colts are fifteenth, but the interesting thing is the consensus line sees the Colts as favourites, whilst in our competition the Colts are getting points. That’s usually an almost certain pick opposite to the consensus but the Titans offence has found its feet again in the last few weeks having started slowly under new offensive coordinator Todd Downing, and whilst Carson Wentz has looked better with Frank Reich’s Colts as he recovers from his various early season injuries, he still looks to be a player who tries to do too much. I could be wrong as this game pits Derick Henry against the Colts’ best in the league rush defence by DVOA, but it was Ryan Tannehill who dominated the Chiefs last week and I’m not that convinced by the Colts offence just yet.

Points from the rest:

• The Falcons have thought their way back to 3-3 and are actually above the Panthers in the NFC South thanks to having a bye and only having three losses with rookie tight end Kyle Pitts finding his way in the last couple of games. The Panthers are really struggling without Christian McCaffery and for the second straight season their newly acquired quarterback is not doing what they hoped. After a promising start Sam Darnold has reverted to type and was sat down during the game last week so it’s hard to have faith in a team slipping back as they are.
• The Bills are incredibly healthy on defence and ranked first by DVOA, which is also their overall ranking. The Dolphins are struggling on defence mightily, which is a bit of surprise given how they’ve been previously under Brian Flores’s tenure with the team, while Tua Tagovailoa has shown promise in the last couple of weeks but has to cut out the silly interceptions. I wonder if the Dolphins will keep it closer than the huge line, but Dan was very firm that the Bills always beat the Dolphins and it is hard to predict an upset in this one.
• I thought the Bears would do better against the Buccaneers than the line suggested last week but I was very wrong. The problem this week is that they welcome a 49ers team who have not exactly been great either and are struggling with their own quarterback play. I’m a bit hesitant to make a call on this one with the Bears getting so many points at home, but some of the numbers say 49ers so that’s where I’m picking.
• I am really not sure what to make of the Steelers as much as I love Mike Tomlin. Their defence is still top ten but the offence has really not improved from last year. A trip to Cleveland is an odd proposition at the moment given how beat up the Browns offence is while their defence is not quite living up to what we expected coming into the season. This could be one I get very wrong as I’m going against the numbers but coming off a bye I’m edging to the Steelers to keep this one within a field goal.
• The Eagles are not a good football team, and neither are the Lions but it feels like the Lions are at least committed to their coach Dan Campbell and if the Lions are going to get a win this season then this has to be one of their best opportunities.
• The line worries me a little in the Bengals visit to the Jets, but the Bengals beat the Lions soundly when they were meant to and then beat the Ravens the following week. I’m hoping they are too new to winning to be complacent against the Jets, but they should win this one, even if they don’t manage the trouncing the Patriots pulled off last week.
• The only interest I had in the Texans against the Rams would have come if Tyrod Taylor was going get back on the field, but as it looks like he is still not going to play because of his hamstring injury you can only see the Rams winning this one. Surprises happen but you need more at quarterback than what rookie Davis Mills can provide to cover this line yet alone win.

Panthers @ Falcons (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Dolphins @ Bills (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

49ers @ Bears (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Steelers @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Eagles @ Lions (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Titans @ Colts (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Bengals @ Jets (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Rams @ Texans (+14.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Late Games:

There are two particularly interesting games in the late slate. The Patriots at Chargers should be a good test of both the Patriots defence going against Justin Herbert and whether they can take anything from the blueprint the Ravens used to so thoroughly beat the Chargers before their bye last week, and what rookie quarterback Mac Jones can do against Brandon Staley’s defence. It is interesting that for all the two high looks that Staley’s success with he Rams last seasons seems to have brought to the league, the Chargers defence is only ranked sixteenth in the league and there do look to be flaws in the Chargers offence though Herbert continues to impress. I can totally understand the Chargers being favourites, but this line seems high to me even if the Pats only wins so far this season have come against the Jets and Texans.

The other late game I’m particularly interested in is the Buccaneers visit to the Saints, which I have set as my pick for Dan to watch this week. I’m mostly keen to see whether the Saints defence can continue the success they enjoyed in the regular season last year against Brady, or whether the Bucs have moved on so much that last season is immaterial. The Bucs offence currently ranks first by DVOA whilst the Saints defence ranks third. It feels clear to see that Sean Payton cannot change Jameis Winston, and so a lot of the Saints success will rely on Alvin Kamara, although it was interesting to see the Saints trade to get Mark Ingram back from the Texans and you have to imagine that is to lessen the workload of Kamara as he has been such a large part of the Saints offence in recent weeks. Even missing Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski on offence it feels like the Bucs will have too much on offence, and while the line does make me pause, the Saints were only able to beat the Seahawks who were starting Geno Smith at quarterback by a field goal last week.

Points on the Rest:

• I’m watching the Jaguars go against the Seahawks this week as Dan is curious about what will happen, as am I. The Seahawks look to be in real trouble without Russell Wilson, whilst the Jaguars will be rested after their win in London against the Dolphins and subsequent bye, but it’s hard to have that much faith in either of them in their current form.
• The Broncos are trading and making moves like they are in win now mode, and I’m sure that Vic Fangio feels like he is fighting for his job. I’m not sure what to expect from the Football Team with the focus in recent days rightfully returning to the absence of a written report into their toxic working environment in the wake of the Jon Gruden email links. On the field it feels like after a strong first season, that Ron Rivera is struggling to build in Washing and the defence that was so good last year is only ranked twenty-eighth by DVOA this season. I feel like the Broncos have a slight edge in this one, and against another team I might be concerned about this line, but I can’t back Washington without getting more points than this.

Patriots @ Chargers (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Jaguars @ Seahawks (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Washington @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Buccaneers @ Saints (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Sunday Night Football:

Cowboys @ Vikings (+2.5)

It looks like the Cowboys could be resting Dak Prescott given they have a solid hold of the NFC East and they won’t want him aggravating his calf injury if they don’t need to, even if they have stated that if it was the playoff he would be playing. The Vikings have been playing well on offence this season, and their defence is almost quietly sixth in the league by DVOA. A lot depends on who is playing for the Cowboys in this game, but given the lines I’m seeing online it appears the assumption is that Prescott won’t be and so I have to take the Vikings getting points in these circumstance.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Monday Night Football

Giants @ Chiefs (-9.5)

I’m really not sure what to do about this line as the Giants are not a good football team, but they are coming off a very good win against the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Chiefs looked broken against the Titans last week, but equally the week before they scored a lot of points late and beat Washington by a lot, even if it was a tight game in the third quarter. I’m pretty certain the Chiefs bounce back with a win as I don’t trust the Giants, but this is a lot of points to lay for a team who str definitely struggling this year. Equally, the Giants have been competitive with teams around them and lost big to better teams. The numbers I use have this as a marginal advantage to go with the Chiefs, and I don’t really want to back them, but I just don’t have enough faith in Daniel Jones on the road given the Giant’s injuries and what’s been going on. I will probably kick myself about this one Tuesday whatever the result.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.