2022 Week 17

01 Sunday Jan 2023

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The new year sees the end of week seventeen and crunch time for a number of teams as we near the play-offs and teams find out how their season is going to end.

Early Games:

The pick of the early games for me is the Dolphins taking on the Patriots in New England without Tua Tagovailoa who is back in concussion protocol. The Dolphins have lost four straight, and certainly there was a drop of from Tagovailoa last week, which is perhaps too easily ascribed to the concussion given the symptoms didn’t come on until the next day but the mechanism of these things are not fully understood. I am going against Dan with my pick, but with the playoffs in jeopardy I’m backing the Dolphins to avoid losing five straight and the Pats are not convincing even with their second half comeback against the Bengals last week.

Cardinals @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Bears @ Lions (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Broncos @ Chiefs (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Colts @ Giants (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Saints @ Eagles (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Browns @ Washington (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Brown

Jaguars @ Texans (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Late Games:

The Packers hosting the Vikings has become a lot more interesting after the Packers recent three-win streak and is the game that leaps out to me in the late slate. I’m also curious how the LA Rams will fair against the Chargers given their comprehensive win against an admittedly poor Broncos team last week. Scoring fifty points against any team is impressive so I do wonder about the Rams getting six and half points against the Chargers who may have won three games straight, but who very possibly could have fewer fans in the stadium these teams share and the Chargers inability to get out of their own way.

49ers @ Raiders (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Jets @ Seahawks (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Rams @ Chargers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Sunday Night Football:

Steelers @ Ravens (-3.5)

This has the makings of a really good contest given the injuries still affecting the Ravens and the fact that despite a difficult season, head coach Mike Tomlinson once again has his team around a fifty percent win percentage and a chance of making the play-offs. AFC North games are always physical so whilst this might not be a pretty game, it will almost certainly be competitive.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Monday Night Football

Bills @ Bengals (+0.5)

This is a big game for the Bengals, and the ever-increasing list of injuries makes a pick’em feel entirely justified as the Bills are a good team with flaws, and it feels with ther defence and Joe Burrow the Bengals are in with a shout. I’m not enjoying picking the game, but I feel that the Bengals will give a good account of themselves even if the win is beyond them. However, as good a quarterback as Josh Allen is for the Bills, in the big situation I think Burrow is less likely to make a mistake and with the Bengals repeatedly finding any way to win I’ll back them nervously to get the win.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2022 Week 17

29 Thursday Dec 2022

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Competition Thursday, NFL, Picks Competition, Week 17 Picks

We’re running out of regular season and things remain tight, though I managed to extend my lead over the festive weekend to four points but still plenty of games to pick in the final weeks for either of us to get ahead.

Gee:	Week 16: 8 – 8	Overall: 117 – 123
Dan:	Week 16: 6 – 10	Overall: 113 – 127

Cowboys @ Titans (+9.5)

It has been a really rough stretch for the Titans having lost five straight. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill going down with a second ankle injury this season against the Chargers in week fifteen led to rookie Malik Willis getting the start against the Texans on Saturday, but the Titans couldn’t get the win. That does not bode well for them welcoming the Cowboys fresh off beating the Eagles. There is a caveat that the Eagles were without Jalen Hurts, but the line demonstrates how favoured the Cowboys are and does put me in a quandary. My numbers back the Cowboys in this one, but Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has an awful lot of equity with me and so I am second guessing myself, even as I eventually plump for the Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Survivor Competition

Thanks to the 49ers beating Washington, both Dan and I came out of week sixteen in our survivor competition over a fifty-fifty record, but with seven eliminations each that is hardly inspiring. This week Dan is opting for Eagles in a display of faith despite Hurts injuries, whilst I am hoping that the Lions’ push for the playoffs puts them over the top against the visiting Bears.

Current Score

Gee: 9
Dan: 9

Week 17 Selection:

Gee: Bears @ Lions
Dan: Saints @ Eagles

2020 Week Seventeen Picks

03 Sunday Jan 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Covid-19, NFL, Week 17 Picks

I need a remarkable seven-point turnaround in week seventeen to stop Dan from winning the picks competition and I really can’t see myself pulling that one off. Still, let us see if I can pick my way through the odd permutations of play-off motivation, resting teams and my stuttering form to at least make it interesting. Right now I’d settle for seven different picks to Dan, which as I always make my picks before I look at his is not guaranteed but I will try to take some big swings if I see them.

Gee:	Week 16: 7 – 9	Overall: 116 – 125
Dan:	Week 16: 6 – 10	Overall: 122 – 119

Survivor Competition

Dan wrapped up the inaugural TWF Survivor competition with another point picking against the Vikings and oh boy did the Saints win that game. Meanwhile I failed to see that the Bengals were going to make it a streak with their first road win under Zac Taylor that both confirmed Dan’s win in this competition and likely saw the Dolphins vault the Bengals in the 2021 draft with the Dolphins in possession of the Texans’ pick. This week Dan discovered that he hadn’t picked the Seahawks and so is backing them against the 49ers, whilst the best game I could find was the Cowboys visitng the Giants. Congratulations to Dan on his win and I just hope that I can keep his lead down to three.

Current Score

Gee: 10
Dan: 13

Week 17 Selection:

Gee: Cowboys
Dan: Seahawks

Early Games:

Week seventeen is often a difficult one to pick through and while there are several games to watch in the early slate with play-off implications, they all seem to have flaws as contests so let’s look at the four games with play-off stakes.

The Miami Dolphins travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team who might want to wrap up the number two seed if they can, but we don’t know how invested they are in achieving that but the fact they are facing divisional rivals might factor into their performance in this game. Things get even more complicated when you factor in that Ryan Fitzpatrick has tested positive for Covid-19 and so the Dolphin’s backup quarterback cannot enter the game if Tua Tagovailoa struggles again. I am leaning towards the Dolphins keeping the game within five points as they did in week two, but I don’t know if they can win and even with Dan telling me there are only two out of a possible thirty-two combinations of results that see the Dolphins miss the play-offs, I am sure he is in for a nervous evening of score watching.

The Cincinnati Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens who need to beat the Bengals or have the Browns or Colts lose to get a play-off berth. I am sure the Ravens will want to keep matters in their own hands and given how they have been playing in recent weeks it is hard to see the Bengals getting the upset win. That said, whilst the consensus line is even bigger, the Bengals have won two straight and I just wonder with the chance to act as spoiler whether the Bengals will keep this game closer than twelve and with the need to take some swings if there is any chance of me winning the picks competition I’m going to back the Bengals to cover.

The Pittsburgh Steelers go to Cleveland with Ben Roethlisberger getting the week off as the Steelers have not had a proper bye this season, and with the Browns most likely chance of making the play-offs being a win and facing a backup quarterback the line has got pretty big. As much as I like what Kevin Stefanski has done with the Browns in his first year as head coach, the Browns lost to the Jets last week having not had most of their receivers available thanks to close contacts with a positive Covid-19 test and there have been more positive tests this week with the facility closed as recently as Saturday. I think the Browns should get the win, but I am not totally sure they will do so by a touchdown even if they are facing a Steelers offence that has really struggled even before starting a backup quarterback and with stories of last week’s turnaround being Roethlisberger changing more calls. I expect the Browns to win but in the quest for enough differences to Dan to win I’m going to swing for the fences and back the Steelers to cover.

The last game with direct play-off implications is the Dallas Cowboys travelling to New York to take on the Giants. The mess of the NFC East will be finally resolved this week, even if it will have a losing team hosting a Wildcard play-off game. The Cowboys come into this contest on a three-game winning streak while the Giants have struggled with Daniel Jones playing despite injuries affecting his mobility as Jones is simply not an effective pocket quarterback. The Giants have slim hopes of making the play-offs, but I think that with their late run of form the Cowboys should win this game and will then turn their eyes nervously to the last game of the day.

Points from the rest:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have started to come together in recent weeks, winning three in a row and this week likely look to maintain momentum as a team built through the season thanks to the lack of pre-season so I see them rolling through the Atlanta Falcons who have nothing to play for
The Minnesota Vikings may have lost Dalvin Cook as he has left the team early due to the death of his father, but they should still have more than enough to beat a bad Lions team. The lines suggest the Lions are the team to pick with this sized line, but they were truly woeful last week and with me needing big swings I’m going to back the Vikings and hope the passing game can hold up in Cook’s absence.
The New England Patriots have had a tough year and will be looking to rebuild in the off-season just like the New York Jets. As much as there is no love loss between these two franchises, the Jets come into this game with a better run of form and whilst the Pats could well win this game, the extra half-point required for them to cover is having me back the 2020 Jets one last time.

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Bills (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Ravens @ Bengals (+11.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Steelers @ Browns (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Cowboys @ Giants (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Vikings @ Lions (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Jets @ Patriots (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Late Games:

The Green Bay Packers head to Chicago needing a win to clinch the number one seeding whilst the Bears need to at least match the Arizona Cardinals’ result to get into the play-offs. It is a big task for the Bears to beat a team who have four more wins and are 24% better by total overall DVOA, but since their meeting in week twelve the Bears have scored thirty points each week and won their last three. I think the Packers will run out winners in a game they want to make sure the path to the Super Bowl runs through Green Bay, but the numbers see some value in backing the Bears to cover.

The Tennessee Titans come into this game needing a win to secure their play-off berth and given that they are facing a Houston Texans team whose defense couldn’t stop the Bengals last week I think the Titans should run out winners in this one. However, I am a little nervous about an eight point win given the Titans’ own defensive frailties and how well Deshaun Watson is playing so with the numbers on my side I’m going to follow them and go with the Texans.

The Indianapolis Colts’ play-off situation is both simple and complex. The Colts need a win to stay in the race but are reliant on one of the other four ten-win AFC teams losing to actually make the play-offs and could in fact finish 11-5 and be on the outside looking in. They should beat a struggling Jacksonville Jaguars who are guaranteed the number one pick in the draft, and the Colts have been playing well but this line is huge and as much as I think the Colts will win, I can’t back them to win by fifteen even if it is plausible that they could.

The LA Rams followed up their surprising loss to the Jets with another loss to the Seahawks and so come into week seventeen needing a win a to guarantee their place in the play-offs, although they also will get in if the Bears lose. They might well need that Packers’ win as the Rams come into this game without Jared Goff after he had surgery on Monday to stabilise his fractured thumb and will also miss Cooper Kupp who has tested positive for Covid-19. They face an Arizona Cardinals team who have looked better since Kyler Murray seemed to recover from whatever injury was troubling jim through the middle of the season, but the Cardinals lost to the 49ers last week and Murray picked up a leg injury on the final play of the game. This is a matchup of backup QB versus a possibly injured one but with the Rams’ still having the best unit in the game thanks to their defense and with Sean McVay’s ability to scheme offence I think they should win. The line makes me nervous with backup quarterback John Wolford starting but I need to make big calls this week so here’s another.

Points on the Rest:

The New Orleans Saints will want to win and hope that results go their way to get the number one seed, but to get it they need the Bears to beat the Packers and the Seahawks to beat the 49ers. The first part of this scenario got a bit more complicated with Alvin Kamara testing positive for Coivd-19 and the whole running back room being ruled out of their game against the Carolina Panthers. I wouldn’t rule out the Saints beating the Panthers, but I kind of like the home team’s chances of keeping the game within seven.
I’m really not sure what to make of either the Las Vegas Raiders or the Denver Broncos and in a dead game I’m not totally sure of the result. However, this a chance for Gruden to have his first non-losing season with the Raiders and as the better team I’d like to think they manage to do just that.
The line that sees the Chiefs getting points against the Chargers is a result of Andy Reid likely resting players in a game that doesn’t matter to the Chiefs who have the number one seed secured. The extra half point is enough to make me nervous but bold picks are what is needed this week.
The Seattle Seahawks secured the NFC West with their win over the Rams last week and so come into their games with only play-off seeding to play for. The 49ers beat the Cardinals last week and given how they have been playing they could well give the Seahawks trouble this week, but the numbers are pointing towards the Seahawks firmly enough that I’m not going to back the 49ers. I just hope I don’t regret it…

Packers @ Bears (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Raiders @ Broncos (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Titans @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Jaguars @ Colts (-14.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Chargers @ Chiefs (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Cardinals @ Rams (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Seahawks @ 49ers (5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Washington @ Eagles (+1.5)

The finale of the NFL regular season sees the Washington Football Team taking on the Philadelphia Eagles looking to secure the division and book a place in the play-offs. While Washington’s defensive and their defensive line in particular have continued to impress, their offence has wobbled without Alex Smith until Taylor Heinicke played better than Dwayne Haskins last week. This was enough Haskins to be cut form the Football Team and with Smith returning to the starting line-up and a better backup Washington are now favourites on the road. This would seem to make sense with the Eagles eliminated from the play-offs and their defense losing Fletcher Cox from the middle of their defensive line. For all the talk of the Eagles not wanting to have Washington win the division in their stadium, the Eagles feel like a team who could be dangerous but don’t ultimately have the team right now to stop Washington.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Seventeen Picks

29 Sunday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 17 Picks

There’s not too much riding on this week’s picks for me given how far I am behind, which is possibly a good thing as this is one of the hardest weeks to pick with many teams not having anything to play for and others resting players ahead of the start of the playoffs. At this time of the season pretty much everyone is going to be carrying some kind of injury and I never like trying to guess the motivation of players and coaches, but I will do my best to get as high a score as possible. Still, for once I feel relatively comfortable with the trivia questions:

‘I was the quarterback that led the Rams to a victory in the 2000 Super Bowl against the Tennessee Titans. I lost my starting job after I fumbled six times in the first game of the 2003 season. Who am I?

Which Charger quarterback bounced back from a dismal 2003-04 season, winning the Comeback Player of the Year Award, throwing 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and landing himself a spot in the 2005 NFL Pro Bowl?’

I think I know the answer to both of these questions, including the slightly sneaky second one, The first quarterback playing for the then San Diego Rams in an offence nicknamed the Greatest Show on Turf and was Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, whilst the second I believe is the future Hall of Famer who is now inextricably linked to the New Orleans Saints, but who started his career in San Diego – Drew Brees.

‘I think I know these this week, which I’m very pleased about so let’s see what Gee can do!

Question one is Hall of Famer Kurt Warner – he presents on the NFL Network now and he’s a very knowledgable guy but wouldn’t let viewers forget his Super Bowl ring! Doesn’t mention those fumbles though strangely enough!

Question two is the sure-to-be Hall of Famer, Drew Brees. Known of course now for his legendary career in New Orleans but he started life as a Charger and I think it would have been around this time.’

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

The first game in the week’s list makes me hesitate as the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at receiver didn’t hinder Jameis Winston that much last week as he threw for over three hundred yards, but he also threw four interceptions in a losing effort for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Houston Texans. This week the Bucs host the Atlanta Falcons who have won three straight and five of their last seven games, which some are saying is the team trying to save their coach. I don’t have the information to make such a statement but given the way these teams are playing, the Bucs’ injuries at receiver and Winston’s propensity for giving the ball away I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Jets @ Bills (-1.5)

The Buffalo Bills are locked up as the fifth seed and so technically don’t have anything to play for this week, except this is why the season now finishes with divisional games and it is hard to see head coach Sean McDermott not going for the win. Meanwhile the New York Jets have quietly won five of their last seven, but one of those losses was against the Bengals and I think the Bills are a much better team.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-6.5)

This is a game where nether team has much to play for. The Minnesota Vikings are locked into the sixth seed but will want to make amends after last week’s loss to the Packers, However, Dalvin Cook will still be sat out as they try to get his shoulder injury right for the playoffs so I wonder how much of a reaction there will be for the Vikings. The Chicago Bears meanwhile have been eliminated from the playoffs so this is a tricky road game for them. In this situation I am going to nervously grab the points as right now I can see the Vikings getting three and half points not giving away six and a half, which is a huge swing away from this line.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Browns @ Bengals (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns need to win this game to equal the number of wins they got last season, but they go into this off-season with a very different feel and I don’t know how they are going to react to a disastrous season of dysfunction, It certainly feels like the Cincinnati Bengals are set to take Joe Burrow in the new year having secured the number one pick in the draft. You only have to look at the comeback against the Dolphins last week to see how hard the players are still playing for the Bengals and there has not been the locker room discontent that you often hear from teams with a losing record so I am going to grab the points here and see if the Bengals can show something for next season.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Packers @ Lions (+10.5)

This might be a big line but the Green Bay Packers have a shot at the number one seed in the NFC and the Detroit Lions have now lost eight straight and you have to go four games back to find a game where the Lions would cover this line. I could regret this, but I am seeing an even bigger number online so I’m going to back the Packers.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Chargers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have won five straight but still need to secure the number three seed as they welcome an LA Chargers team in flux. The Chargers lost last week in front of so many Raider fans in their home stadium that they had to use a hard count and go into the off-season with big questions around their move yet alone their future with Philip Rivers finally looking his age and out of contract. I’m not sure what is going to happen in the off-season, but I’m pretty sure the Chiefs are going to win this game and I’m going to guess by enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-15.5)

The Miami Dolphins were three wins better than they needed to be to secure the first pick in the draft, but they still have plenty of draft capital to take advantage of and Brian Flores has impressed in his first year as a head coach. This is a tough game though as they head into New England to face a playoff bound Patriots team who looked a little better on offence last week. I don’t expect anything other than a Patriots win, but this is a huge line and it is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Saints @ Panthers (+13.5)

The New Orleans Saints are one of three teams who could secure the first seed in the NFC and who have looked good for most of the season, even with Drew Brees sitting for a number of games. This is a tricky line for me though as the Saints only beat the Carolina Panthers by three points in week twelve but the Panthers also lost by thirty-two points last week. I could come to regret this as the Saints will be motivated, but on the road facing a divisional opponent I’m going to say this is too many points and hope not to be proven an idiot.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Washington @ Cowboys (-10.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are the seventh ranked team by DVOA, and by a lot of stats look to be a good team but this has not manifested itself into a good record. At 7-8 the Cowboys still have a slim chance of going to the playoffs but it relies on the Eagles losing as well as them beating Washington. The issue there is that Dak Prescott is struggling with a shoulder injury and did not look himself at all last week. As it turns out Washington also have quarterback problems with rookie Dwayne Haskins likely out with a high ankle sprain. I do see the Cowboys winning this game, but this line is simply too big for me to back the home team.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)

I have very little faith in the Oakland Raiders right now, but they did beat the LA Chargers last week. Yet at 7-8 they only have three more wins than last season and this is Jon Gruden’s second year. Perhaps they can turn things round next season and justify the long contract they gave Gruden, but right now they are the twenty-fourth ranked team by DVOA travelling to face the twenty-third ranked Denver Broncos. The Broncos have won three of their last four games and so you can see why they are the favourites in this game. I’m not confident in the result of this contest, and the Raiders do have an outside shot of making the playoffs but with Gruden talking about not rushing players back from injury I’m going to back the team with more wins over the last few weeks.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Titans @ Texans (+4.5)

The Tennessee Titans have control of their destiny as if they beat the Houston Texans they get into the playoffs. I think the reason that the Titans are favoured in this line is that the Texans’ receiver Will Fuller went down injured again last week and whilst the Texans still won, they look a very different team without Fuller to stretch the defence. I like the Titans to get the win despite losing their previous meeting, but this line really gives me pause. However, the Texans are getting even more points when I look online and will only have something to play for if the Chiefs lose so I’m going to stick with the Titans and hope this isn’t going to make me look very daft.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Colts @ Jaguars (+3.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars might have beaten the Raiders after Tom Coughlin was let go but they lost against the Falcons last week and in their final game of season they face an Indianapolis Colts team who won big against the Panthers in week sixteen. I can’t read too much into that game as the Colts had lost their previous four, but the Colts are 18.9% better by DVOA and so whilst I really don’t like this line, I am going to back the Colts to cover it.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Cardinals @ Rams (-7.5)

The LA Rams have had a strange year, and were competitive last week against the 49ers but are outside the playoffs, although if they were an AFC team they would have a shot at a wildcard with their current 8-7 record. I think they are likely to win this game with the Arizona Cardinals looking at playing without Kyler Murray who has sustained a hamstring injury. However, this is a big line that the Rams have already covered once this season. I’m actually seeing a better number online for the Rams despite the injury to Murray and that makes me pause but I can’t quite bring myself to back the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Eagles @ Giants (+4.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles simply need to win this game to make the playoffs, but the New York Giants come into this game having won two straight since rookie quarterback Daniel Jones returned to the starting lineup from injury. The Eagles recent wins are not exactly against impressive opposition and so whilst I think the Eagles are likely to win this game, the points make me nervous enough to take the Giants.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Steelers @ Ravens (+2.5)

This is an interesting game in that it will be curious to see how the Baltimore Ravens run their offence with Lamar Jackson sitting, but the Pittsburgh Steelers simplest path to the playoffs is the Titans losing and them winning this game. Given the situation with the Ravens sitting Jackson this is definitely possible, but the line I am seeing online has shrunk and so this is actually a better number for the Ravens, even if the Steelers only need a field goal to cover. I’m really torn on this one but Jackson has been so good that I think I have to nervously back the Steelers as the Ravens are just losing too much from their offence with Jackson on the bench.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

49ers @ Seahawks (+3.5)

The final game of the season pits two teams who still have something to play for against each other as a win for the Seahawks could see them seeded anywhere from first to third depending on other results whilst a loss would see them on the road as a wildcard team. However, with injuries at offensive tackle and running back this is an even trickier game than last time these two teams played. You don’t sign running back Marshawn Lynch out of retirement when things are going well. Meanwhile, the 49ers may have lost three of their last seven games, but they have also won two tight games against good teams in the last three and enter this game as favourites for a reason. However, despite the 49ers not covering this sized line in four weeks, I can’t quite bring myself to back the Seahawks given the injury situation and so I am reluctantly backing the 49ers who will be looking to try to secure the first seed if they can.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2018 Week Seventeen Picks

30 Sunday Dec 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 17 Picks

So here we are going into the final week and thanks to my best week all year I somehow have managed to take a slender point lead over Dan’s Dad going into the final week.

Gee:                Week 16   13-3           Overall   126-114
Dan’s Dad: Week 16   7-9 Overall   125-115
Dan: Week 16    8-8 Overall   117-123

However, not only is this an important week but it’s one of the trickiest to pick as we don’t know how teams are going to react to playing meaningless games or what teams are trying players with an eye on who they want for next year rather than performance this week. But before we get to the giant week seventeen picks there’s the minor matter of our trivia competition and after getting to the same answer via very different (and in my case insanely jammy) means we move to a somewhat deceptively simple question:

‘Who is the only NFL Player to have a Star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame?’

Now I’m sure there are others, but the only former NFL player that is working as an actor that leaps to my mind is Terry Crews so that is going to be my answer.

‘Firstly, I was convinced that I’d at least tie it up last week but that plan was thwarted by Gee’s random team generator (and a little bit of logic) in the end. This week’s is tough too… it’s got to be someone who has done something noteworthy outside of football to be on the walk of fame. My first thought was Dan Marino, but having been to the Hollywood walk of fame (and as a Dolphins fan of course) I would have spotted and remembered that if he was there. I think I’m going to go with OJ Simpson though. Little less obvious and something just tells me he’s the kind of person who would have a star.’

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

The first one of these games is almost an archetypal week seventeen game with both teams not having anything to play for except for individuals trying to keep themselves in the league. However, the Falcons have won two games straight with pretty convincing scorelines including a fourteen-point win over the Panthers in Carolina and that is convincing enough for me.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Bills (-3.5)

I really don’t like this line as the extra half point tempts towards the Dolphins except they have been a bad road team all season and are a warm weather team travelling to play outdoors in the cold. When you add to that the fact that the Dolphins have only won in one of their last six visits to Buffalo and I’m going to go against my numbers and hope it doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Cowboys @ Giants (-6.5)

This is a curious game in that the New York Giants are actually ranked as the better team by overall DVOA and yet it is the Dallas Cowboys who are resting players having got their playoff seeding set whilst the Giants have only won five games this season. More worrying is the fact that with their recent form there is now noise that Eli Manning will be back next season, which only delays the inevitable transition that needs to take place. Not knowing how much the important players for the Cowboys will play is making this a really hard game to pick, I hate the line and the situation, and want to stay away but as I don’t have that choice and I just don’t have this much faith in the Giants I’m going to grab the points and hope for the best.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

The Green Bay Packers don’t have that much to play for but Aaron Rodgers wants to finished the season with his teammates and having come back from behind last week they welcome a struggling Detroit Lions teams. I don’t like this line going past the -7 but the Lions have real problems on offence thanks to injuries at the skills positions and have the worst defence in the league by DVOA. My spreadsheet actually has a higher number than this and so I’m going to throw caution to the wind and back the Packers to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Jets @ Patriots (-13.5)

It would not surprise me at all if the New England Patriots do well in the playoffs, but things are not quite right with Tom Brady and for a team that often runs the ball and tries to shorten the game in week seventeen this line seems too big. The New York Jets look to have found their long term answer at quarterback, but a lot depends on how they build round him. However, for the last four weeks the Jets have at least been competitive, they beat the Bills in Buffalo and didn’t lose by more than a touchdown, which either means I am right in thinking they will keep this game within two touchdowns or the Patriots are about to get a big score ahead of going into the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Panthers @ Saints (-10.5)

This game sits squarely in the awkward pick category as the Saints are openly talking about game planning without their starters whilst the Panthers are down to their third string quarterback. Having sat Cam Newton for the rest of the season to start the recovery from his shoulder problems, Taylor Heinicke injured his elbow last week and so undrafted rookie Kyle Allen will get the start at quarterback this week, on the road, in New Orleans. I don’t have a lot of confidence in how this game will go and so I’m going to grab the points, but it would not exactly be surprising if there was a lopsided game.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Jaguars @ Texans (-7.5)

Here we are with another line that I don’t like. The Houston Texans can get up to the second seed in the AFC if they win and the Patriots falter, but they are a hard team to rely on given the quality of their offensive line and the injury to Lamar Miller. Meanwhile the Jacksonville Jaguars essentially punted the season when they sat Blake Bortles for the rest of the season and stuck to that decision, even after it Cody Kessler was only able to generate single digit points in his first two games. They have still not cracked twenty points with him at quarterback and this is unlikely to be enough to beat the Houston Texans but with a top five defence by DVOA they might well keep this game closer than eight points, which is what my spreadsheet says and so that’s where I’m going, but I can’t pretend I feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

This is one of the games with meaning for both teams as if the Chicago Bears win and the Rams lose they could get the second seed, whilst the Minnesota Vikings need to win to get into the playoffs. I’m not sure how much of their offence tricks that the Bears will want to show in this game as it is a potential playoff preview, but this seems like a lot of points to be laying by a Vikings team who have three less wins than their opponents. The Bears currently possess the league’s best defence by DVOA, and by ten percentage points at that so I think they will cause problems for a Vikings offence that has improved in recent weeks thanks to a new direction but that still has limitations. In a competitive game I’m going to back the Bears to keep this one within six points.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Bears

Bengals @ Steelers (-14.5)

This line worries me slightly as it is not inconceivable that a Pittsburgh Steelers team who need a win to get into the playoffs and who are playing at home could cover this line, but I basically never lay this number of points as it is one of my guiding principles when making picks. That said part of me does worry about this game because of how banged up and poor the Bengals defence has been this season, but they’ve seemed somewhat better in the last few weeks and so I’m going to hope my usual rules hold in week seventeen.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals.
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

If the Baltimore Ravens win they are in the playoffs and whilst they also get in if the Bengals beat the Steelers, they will not want to rely on that. However, the Cleveland Browns are no slouches and in this biggest of rivalry games I can’t see anything but a competitive game. The Ravens turned their season around with the addition of Lamar Jackson into their starting line-up but the Browns have gone 5-2 under their current coaching setup and have won three straight. My spreadsheet has this as a pick for the Ravens but I don’t like this number in this situation given how the teams have played in recent weeks and so I’m going to back the Browns to keep the game closer than seven.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Chargers @ Broncos (+6.5)

The LA Chargers still have a chance of getting a bye if they win and the Chiefs lose, but it feels likely that they will end up as a wildcard even though they have one win more than any AFC team not named the Chiefs. The Denver Broncos have nothing left to play for but pride, which explains the line which is tempting despite the problems on the offence and that might be what tips it for me. The Broncos lost their one-thousand-yard undrafted rookie Pro-Bowl running back Phillip Lyndsay last week, and so even with their home field advantage I wonder how competitive they can make this game given they have lost to the 49ers, Browns, and Raiders in the last three weeks. That said they did beat the Chargers last time they played and my spreadsheet is very clearly indicating Broncos and with this many points and in a divisional game I feel like the smart play is to back the Broncos. I could regret it and look very silly, but my turnaround was down to trusting the numbers so that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Raiders @ Chiefs (-13.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have something to play for this week as they can tie up the number one seed and home field advantage with a win. Despite this being a divisional game I do expect them to win against an Oakland team who have gone 3-3 in their last six games. However, the Chiefs have lost their last two games and haven’t beaten a team by fourteen points or more since week nine and so this line is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

49ers @ Rams (-9.5)

The LA Rams should be looking to rest Todd Gurley another week and trust themselves to win and get themselves a further week to get Gurley healthy for the playoffs. They welcome a San Francisco 49ers team who got two of their four wins in the last three games and have been competitive in all of them. That said this was also a three game home stand but still, travelling to face a Rams team who haven’t quite looked the same since the bye week they could keep it close. My worry is that the spreadsheet says one thing completely counter to what my natural inclination is in this game and with it being week seventeen, I’m not sue which way to lean but in the end this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles need a helping hand as well as a win to get into the playoffs but their divisional game takes them to Washington to face a team who have struggled all season and been overcome by injuries. I think the Eagles will get their win but this is too many points for me to ignore given that Washington have made life difficult for too many teams this season. That said, it would not exactly be a surprise if the Eagles were to win by a touchdown but they have too many problems for me to predict it.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-12.5)

This is a surprisingly tricky pick given that it is a huge line, but the Arizona Cardinals have been pretty woeful this season and are bottom of the league by DVOA by quite some gap. They finish the season in the notoriously difficult to play in CenturyLink Field and the spreadsheet says that the Seahawks should cover this line and looking at the Cardinals’ results I can see why and so despite my instincts saying otherwise I’m going to back the Seahawks.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Colts @ Titans (+1.5)

The final game of the weeks is a winner gets in to the playoffs matchup between the Tennessee Titans hosting the Indianapolis Colts. I have been bullish on the Colts for a lot of the year whilst the Titans have tripped me up a lot thanks to their up and down play, but with Marcus Mariota suffering a re-occurrence of his nerve issues and questionable to play I’m going to ignore the home underdog and back the Colts to come out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Week Seventeen Picks

31 Sunday Dec 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 17 Picks

Heading into the final week of picks Dan and my records stand as:

Gee: Week 16 6-10 Overall 134-107
Dan: Week 16 8-8 Overall 125-116

Week seventeen is a strange week for picks as there are differing levels of motivation depending on what is riding on the game and how a team are finishing out for their coaches but it also seems odd to talk about the motivation of professional players and this is not a sport you can play at half speed. Dan has decided to go with all road teams baring his Dolphins so we’ll have to see how that works out for him.

Bears @ Vikings (-12.5)

This line worries me a lot as there is a big difference between these teams but this is a lot of points. The Chicago Bears defence is ranked a respectable fourteenth by DVOA but they are twenty-fifth overall thanks to poor offence and a surprisingly struggling special teams unit. They are on the road in Minnesota and it doesn’t feel like Mike Zimmer is the kind of coach who know how not to compete. Combine this with a stadium that offers a genuine home field advantage and that the Vikings need a win to secure a first round bye and I am going to reluctantly back the Vikings to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-14.5)

This is the final chance for the Cleveland Browns to avoid going winless this season, but playing the Steelers on the road in Pittsburgh doesn’t feel like the best situation to get one. Still, we don’t know what players may be rested by the home team and the Browns will be desperate for a win. I don’t know if that will be enough to get the win but this line is too rich for my blood despite the Brown’s record against the spread.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Cowboys @ Eagles (+2.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles head into the playoffs with worries about how they played last week and with a backup quarterback who did not look great last in that game so they will hope to better in the coming weeks or their playoff run could be very shot. This week they welcome the Dallas Cowboys who missed out on the playoffs with last week’s loss to the Seahawks. The Eagles have secured a first round bye so could rest players yet with them picking up points at home I think I’m going to back them.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Packers @ Lions (-7.5)

This is another game where neither team has anything on the line other than divisional rivalry and with the Detroit Lions hosting a Green Bay Packers team that will be starting Brett Hundley at quarterback it is hard to know how things will go. However, backing a Packers’ team on the road who were shut out last week doesn’t look like a good plan, especially when six of their eight losses this season have been by more than eight points.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Texans @ Colts (-3.5)

The 4-11 Houston Texans last win was in week eleven and they have scored single digit points in their last two games. The 3-12 Indianapolis Colts are at home and may not have won since week nine but they at least have been close in some of their recent games and so I’m going to back them in this one despite the extra half point.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Jets @ Patriots (-15.5)

The New England Patriots have secured a first round bye but will want to finish seeded one. However, they are hosting a New York Jets team who have been competitive all year and this line is huge. I doubt that the Jets will win but this line is just too rich for me, even if the Patriots have been ridiculously good against the spread as well as winning a lot of games this season.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Washington @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants were another team shut out last week and this week host a Washington team who won handily in their last game and so I find it difficult to see things changing this week. In this most unpredictable of weeks I could be wrong but I’m not going to pick it.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Atlanta Falcons need a win to make sure they stay ahead of the chasing Seahawks and host the Carolina Panthers who are looking to secure their division. This should be one of the better games of the season and with the Falcons needing to get their act together for the playoffs I fancy them to win but the points do worry me. Still, all of the Panthers four losses have been by more than four points and so I’m worriedly taking the Falcons

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Bills @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The Buffalo Bills need to win and for results to go their way for the longest playoff appearance drought in the NFL to end and I for one will be supporting them heartily. They travel to face a Miami Dolphins team who have struggled for large parts of the season despite their excellent skills players on offence. Their respective overall rankings of twentieth and twenty-eighth by DVOA backup my feeling that the Bills are the better team this season and so I am going to pick them with hope that they make the playoffs but it feels like something (namely the Chargers) will go wrong to prevent them making it and that could well include this game.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Bengals @ Ravens (-9.5)

The Baltimore Ravens will want to win to secure their wildcard spot and with them hosting the Cincinnati Bengals I expect them to get it. However, this is a lot of points for an AFC North game that has traditionally been close and I do fancy the Bengals to finish the season close against a team whose offence is ranked twentieth by DVOA even if the Bengal’s defence has slipped in recent weeks thanks to injury.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Chiefs @ Broncos (-3.5)

This is a curious game to pick as the Kansas City Chiefs are starting their rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes and I think this explains this line given how the Denver Broncos have been playing this season. It is hard to know how Mahomes will go against a defence that still ranks in the top ten by DVOA even if it has slipped from its recent heights, but the Broncos still rank second against the run so it is doubtful the Chiefs can rely on their run game and Denver has never been an easy place to play. There are too many unknowns to feel secure about this game so I’m going to grab the points and see what happens.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Jaguars @ Titans (-5.5)

The Tennessee Titans are another team who need to win and for results to go their way to get into the playoffs but they welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who lost badly last week and will want to get things back on track before the playoffs. I also get the feeling that they would delight in sticking it to a divisional rival and stopping them from making the playoffs. Even if this wasn’t all true, this line feels off considering the way the teams have played all season and so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Raiders @ Chargers (-7.5)

The Los Angeles Chargers got the win they needed last week to keep their playoff hopes alive, but they need to win and hope results go their way to actually get in and this could be a surprisingly tough home game. The Chargers stadium will likely be full of Oakland Raiders’ fans and so whilst the Raiders defence ranks a lowly twenty-sixth by DVOA they could still get a boost. Still, this has been a disappointing year for the Raiders and the Chargers are very solidly ranked in both offence and defence by DVOA if only their special teams weren’t so poor. I do still fancy the Chargers to get the win and whilst the points do worry me, I think they have enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

This feels like a strange game in that the Rams’ head coach Sean McVay is resting players as he expects to be home for the first week of the playoffs and then on the road and prefers to get some of his starters rested, whilst the San Francisco 49ers travel to LA on a four game win streak. If Jimmy Garoppolo can get a win against the Jaguars top ranked by DVOA pass defence then he should keep the 49ers competitive in this one. In fact, I kind of fancy the 49ers to win and I definitely expect them to cover with the Rams resting players.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Saints @ Buccaneers (+7.5)

The New Orleans Saints have clinched a playoff spot but are looking to secure a division win as they travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs may have lost their last five games but only one of them was by more than eight points and the last three have only been lost by a field goal so whilst I can see the Saints winning their division, I do fancy the Bucs to cover this one and keep the game competitive.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-8.5)

This final pick of the season is a tricky one for me as the Seattle Seahawks have managed to keep themselves with a chance of making the playoffs, but they need to win and hope that the Falcons lose. They welcome an Arizona Cardinals team whose season was derailed by injury but have remained surprisingly competitive and it is not impossible to see them doing so again against the injured Seahawks defence. Still, the Seahawks’ defence is ranked eleventh and they have a much better quarterback and with something to play for so I expect them to win, but can they manage to do so by nine points? I’m not sure so I’m going to grab the points and hope in this game.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Week Seventeen Picks

01 Sunday Jan 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 17 Picks

Looking at the week’s line, and not being sure who will be playing is making picking games pretty hard, particularly as Dan had a stunning week sixteen and overhauled a four point deficit to go into this final week with a point lead.

Still, for the final time for this season, let’s go through full sixteen game slate.

Gee: Week 16 8-8 Overall 114-126
Dan: Week 16 13-3 Overall 115-125

Bill @ Jets (+3.5)

The Jets have limped into the end of the season with a horrible loss to the Patriots last week, and given their performances over recent weeks, I can’t see them winning this one at home, even if they are playing the inconsistent Bills. I don’t know what effect not having the Ryan brothers coaching, or EJ Manuel will have at quarterback, but in a competition where I can’t skip games, I’m backing the Bills to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Vikings lost against a surging Packers team last week and now host a Bears team who got their own drubbing last week. This feels like to many points for the Vikings to cover, but the Bears were horrible last week. It’s a hard one for me to predict, but my gut says this is too many points for a disappointing Vikings team.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Bears

Ravens @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Ravens got knocked out of the playoffs last week, but they are a consistent team that will be looking to cement a winning record and this could be Steve Smith’s final game in what has been an impressive career for the receiver. The Bengals keep teams close, but I find it hard to believe that they will win this one and I don’t believe they are the better team and so I’m taking the points.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Browns @ Steelers (-6.5)

With the news of the various players on offence that the Steelers are resting, I think that the Browns may well cover in this game. I’m going to look a fool if Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, or Antonio Brown do play, but under the circumstances I think that the rest makes sense and so the Browns follow up their first win of the season by covering. Hopefully…

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Cowboys @ Eagles (-2.5)

This is another game where starters could be rested as the Cowboys have secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They also travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team coming off an excellent win against the Giants the previous Thursday night. It’s a hard game to predict, but in the end I’m going to stick with the home team.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Texans @ Titans (-2.5)

The Titans not only were knocked out of the playoffs last week, but lost Marcus Mariota to a broken leg and it is hard to see them winning out in a game against a Texans team who really need to find a rhythm with recently promoted to starting quarterback Tom Savage leading the offence before the playoffs, whilst their defence has been good for most of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Jaguars @ Colts (-4.5)

This is a hard game to pick given that the Colts are coming off a close loss to the Raiders and a big win against the Vikings, whilst the Jaguars were beating the Titans even before Mariota was injured, but both teams have disappointed this year. In the end I’m not prepared to back the Jaguars on the back of one good game, and if I could stay away from this game I would, but as I can’t I’ll reluctantly chose the Colts to cover.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Patriots @ Dolphins (+9.5)

The Dolphins have a pretty good record against the Patriots in Miami, and this seems a surprisingly large line given that the Patriots have little to play for this week ahead of their bye and so I will join Dan in backing the Dolphins in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Panthers looked back to themselves for a small stretch this season, but Cam Newton has not been playing well and the loss of Luke Kuechly to concussion has hurt the defence a lot. The Buccaneers theoretically still have a chance to make the playoffs, but for all practical purposes they are eliminated, yet they will still want to win this one and at home they stand a fair chance. However, the big question is whether they can cover this line, and although their overall DVOA is pretty similar, the weighted by opponent ranking significantly improves for the Bucs and in the end I just have this feeling that they will.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Saints @ Falcons (-6.5)

This is another large line, but the Falcons have been playing well and against many teams might be good to cover it, however the Saints are coming into this game with their own two game winning streak. However, as good as Drew Brees has been, the Saints defence is likely to struggle to slow down the Falcons who can secure a bye with a win and in the end I think they will be too good for the Saints.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Raiders @ Broncos (-1.5)

The Broncos lie third in the competitive AFC West as both of last year’s Super Bowl teams failed to make the playoffs. Meanwhile the Raiders can secure a bye week with a win but sadly lost Derek Carr to a broken leg last week. I don’t know if backup Matt McGloin can get them the win or what the Raiders can do in the playoffs, but the Broncos have struggled on offence all season, and even their defence struggled last week. Coming into this game with a three game losing streak I find it hard to pick the Broncos and the Raiders need to prepare what they have for the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Chiefs @ Chargers (+5.5)

I am wary of this game as the Chargers won a prospective final game in San Diego last season when it seemed like they could be leaving, and it looks like they will be moving this year, but the team is just so injured and the Chiefs are a team with playoff seeding to play for. I could be wrong, but I do see the Chiefs continuing their excellent regular season run and covering this line.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Cardinals @ Rams (+6.5)

The Rams continued their losing streak against the 49ers despite having a 21-7 lead in the fourth quarter, but they still struggle and it is hard to see them beating a Cardinals team who appear to be trying to finish strongly. An impressive season from David Johnson has not helped the Cardinals push for the playoffs, but they will want to avenge their week four loss. The line makes me worry, but there is a big difference in the DVOA figures between these teams that makes me think the Cardinals will cover, albeit slightly nervously.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Giants @ Washington (-7.5)

Washington needs to win this game to get in the playoffs, and the Giants have nothing to play for as they are locked into the fifth seed. The line makes me pause, but the offence of Washington has been playing very well for much of this season and if the Giants begin to rest their starters ahead of the playoffs I can see Washington covering this line. I’m changing my mind on this one, which is always dangerous, but under the circumstances and with the game being played in Washington, I think that Washington can and will cover.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Seahawks @ 49ers (+9.5)

This is another big line, and I find it hard to think that the Seahawks will definitely cover this one given the problems they have had on offence thanks to the injuries. In fact the Seahawks are limping into the playoffs having lost start safety Earl Thomas to injury, but that said the 49ers have lost to everyone bar the Rams in a season where they have really struggled. I want to pick the 49ers, but I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Packers @Lions (+3.5)

This is the big game of the week, with the winner getting into the playoffs. The Lions have faltered in recent weeks, whilst the Packers who were at 4-6 had Aaron Rodgers claim they would win out and are now only this game from doing just that. He has also played very well as the Packers won five straight and it does feel that the Packers have all the momentum coming into this one. A lot of the Lions success was built on last minute comebacks, but a 9-6 record belies their ranking of twenty-seventh by DVOA and in the end I can’t pick against the Packers in this game. I am really looking forward to seeing what happens though.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

The End of the Regular Season, Aaron Donald on Coaching Tape, and Week 17 Picks

03 Sunday Jan 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Aaron Donald, Chip Kelly, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams, Week 17 Picks

It is one of those tricks of time that the last games of the regular season are being played today, and it has been a long season, yet it doesn’t feel like five minutes since the season started. One of the good things about being a fan of American football is that you go into the cold gloom of January with excitement for playoffs, although as a Bengals fan there is usually a fair amount of trepidation.

The end of season head coach firings have already begun, with Chip Kelly being let go from the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this week. It feels like an odd time to do it, and I am not sure I buy the reasons stated by the team as no one from other NFL teams are going to be contacting him this week. It also seems strange to me that you would hand over control of your roster to someone, and then fire them after a solitary season, but then again I am not in the building so it could be seen as making a strong decision to stop something that has gone wrong as quickly as possible. Only time will tell, but there will need to be some consistent effort in Philadelphia to establish if there is a long term plan in place. I will be curious to see what route the Eagles take next as well as if Chip Kelly gets another chance. Kelly has already stated that he doesn’t want control over personnel in the future, but with all the new training ideas he was trying it was exciting to have him in the league, even if I am not sure if his up tempo offence, with the results it also has for his defence, can lead to sustained success in the NFL.

It is kind of frightening that the offseason will start on Monday, with the annual coach firings, and all that means for the staff involved. It is very easy to forget in amongst all the news stories, that their will be numerous families moving cities, and various coaches nervously waiting to see if they are staying or will be looking for an opportunity elsewhere. It will also see the usual jockeying for coaches, and trying to hire from the teams in the playoffs. In addition to all the usual coaching and player moves, we have three franchises that could be moving to LA. This is always a strange topic UK fans as it is incredibly rare for a team to move location over here, where as it is not uncommon for NFL franchises to change cities, and two of the teams in flux have played in Los Angeles before. The NFL has become a year round news generator, with perhaps the only true time off for those working for the teams being between OTAs and the start of training camp, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves; there is still a week of football left followed by the playoffs.

I decided to treat myself this week with the coaching tape given that it won’t make sense to look at something from a team not going to the playoffs next week so I took a look at the performance of the St Louis Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

The Rams were playing the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle, and not only did they win this game, but they managed to sack quarterback Russell Wilson six times and hit him a further thirteen. Now Aaron Donald may have only hit Wilson twice in this game and failed to add to his tally of eleven sacks that has him inside the top ten for sacks in the league, but he still had a big effect in this game.

The first thing that became obvious to me was Donald generating a consistent pressure up the middle, sometimes slipping between offensive linemen, working round as part of a stunt, or simply beating his man. The Seattle line struggled to block him with only one player, and frequently used two players to control Donald. In fact, there was one snap in the fourth quarter where despite the Rams rushing only four players, three Seahawk offensive linemen blocked Donald. What I was not expecting to see was Donald drop into shallow zones as part of a zone blitz, but he did this five times in this game and the Rams were not punished when this happened.

Although his stats were not gaudy, Donald did get pressure, only missing out on getting a sack by small margins on several snaps, and he was also disruptive in the running game. He demonstrated the ability to shed blocks to make tackles, but as well as making tackles or getting pressure by getting past or shedding his blocker, he interrupted several plays simply by driving his blocker back. He effectively stopped the run several times with this simple drive, and on one play I am still not sure how Russell Wilson completed a pass given that Donald drove the Seahawk’s right tackle back into Wilson as he threw the ball. Even when double teamed he was sometimes able to affect the play as his push was directed towards the running back, clogging up the running lane. He also created a penalty when JR Sweezy held Donald as he went passed and took him to the ground.

I don’t think Aaron Donald struck me as having quite the same explosive first step as Geno Atkins who I watch week in week out, but in his second year in the league Donald has established himself as one of the top defensive players in the league. He constantly has to be accounted for and creates room for the players around him to work as well as directly contributing against both the run and pass. I am looking forward to seeing how the Rams play next season, and if the strong finish they have put together can finally lead to them competing in the division as so often has been suggested in recent years.

It is going to be an odd week to pick games given there are a lot of teams with little to play for, or teams resting players ahead of the playoffs, but for the final time in this season’s competition, here are Dan and mine’s picks. Let’s hope they are better than last week…

Gee: Week 16 6-10 Overall 125-115

Dan: Week 16 6-10 Overall 116-124

Saints @ Falcons (-4.5)

The Saints surprised me last week, but the Falcons seem to be finishing the season strongly and will be looking to build for next season, whilst things look to be difficult again for the Saints next year.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Jets @ Bills (+2.5)

The Bills are talking about this game being their Super Bowl, but the plain fact for me is that one team just beat the Patriots and need this game to get to the playoffs, and the other gives away too many penalties and are inconsistent. I’m backing what I think is the better team in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Lions @ Bears (-1.5)

The Bears have done well this season, and look to be building something going forward although I am sure the fans in Chicago will be hoping to hold onto offensive coordinator Adam Gase given the job he has done with Jay Cutler this year. However, whilst the Lions may have the same record as the Bears this season, they are 5-2 since their bye week and new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter seems to have found a formula to get the Detroit offence running. I think the Lions finish the season strongly as I trust them more than the Bears.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Ravens @ Bengals (-7.5)

The Bengals are heading into the playoffs with a lot of questions, but AJ McCarron did okay in the first half against the Broncos, and I think they will have enough to deal with the Ravens in Cincinnati. However, I am looking forward to seeing what Ryan Mallet does this week, but I don’t think the Ravens have enough to win this one and with the Bengals needing to win to push the Broncos for the second seed, I’m hoping they cover this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns are limping to the end of the season, and somehow Johnny Manziel entered the concussion protocol on Wednesday so it feels like they season is ending the way it has gone since week one. The Steelers need this win to try to get into the playoffs and I think they will cover this with their high powered offence being too much for the Browns.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Washington @ Cowboys (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game as the talk seems to be that with nothing to play for, that Washington will be resting players, but almost on principle I refuse to back the Cowboys, even in Dallas.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Titans @ Colts (-6.5)

This is a horrible game to pick, as the Titans have lost a lot of games, whilst we don’t actually know who will be playing quarterback for the Colts as their season falls apart. They need ten results to go their way for the Colts to make the playoffs, and I’m not sure that the one they have under their own control will go their way, yet alone that they will win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Patriots @ Dolphins (+9.5)

The Patriots have had so many injuries this season, and yet still I think they will win this game against a Dolphins team that have been simply bad this year. However, the Patriots will be looking to keep their key players healthy so I don’t see them winning by ten points.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

Often when a team does lose a head coach during the season, it can produce an immediate reaction, but given how the Eagles have been playing, plus a Giants team at home with a point to prove I can’t look past the Giants in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Jagaurs @ Texans (-6.5)

The Houston Texans may be coming into form at the right moment, but I’m not so sure that their offence is that good. Whilst the Jaguars have consistently been unpredictable, they have a great core on offence and I’m not so sure that the Texans are going to win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Chargers @ Broncos (-8.5)

The Broncos defence looked like best unit in the game in the second half of their win against the Bengals, and this week welcome a Chargers team that are headed into an offseason of change. I think that the Broncos will win, but I am not sure they are going to win by nine points given the way their offence is playing.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Raiders @ Chiefs (-6.5)

The Chiefs are on such a run of form, with a defence that is as scary as anybody’s in the league. The Raiders have some good young players, but Derek Carr has faded a bit down the stretch and I think this is a game where the Chiefs will run out comfortable winners.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Rams @ 49ers (+3.5)

The Rams have now won three in a row since firing their offensive coordinator, and are on something of a run, where as the 49ers will be looking forward to the offseason and getting this year behind them.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are such an aggressive team, and if this was truly competitive game then I might think about them covering this game, but at the end of the year with nothing really on the line in a divisional game I’m not sure I can seem them winning by seven against a Seahawks team who will be looking to right the ship after a bad loss last week.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-10.5)

The Panthers might be better off not having the pressure of an unbeaten season hanging over them, but I’m not sure how they will play in this one so I can’t bring myself to back them by eleven points even if the Buccaneers are not finishing this season strongly.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Vikings @ Packers (-3.5)

Right now I think the Vikings are the better team, with a tough defence and an offence who know who they are and how to get the job done. I don’t expect the same performance from the Packers back in Green Bay as they had last week, but with injury worries on their o-line as well as the problems they’ve had all year on offence, I don’t expect it to be that much better.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

NFL Week 17 Picks

27 Saturday Dec 2014

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It feels a little strange that we are heading into the final week of the regular season already. I had a hell of a time watching the Bengals last week, it doesn’t matter that he hasn’t played well for a couple of weeks now, Peyton Manning is still terrifying and the comeback in the third quarter was so dispiriting to watch. Still, the Bengals finally pulled one out on prime time national TV and they are in the playoffs, with a chance of revenge against the Steelers in the final week.

The picks competition is coming down to the wire, with Dan holding a game’s lead going into the final week, but the question is who is going to be playing all their players as we look at the final games of the regular season.

Gee: Week 16 7-9 Overall 119-121
Dan: Week 16 7-9 Overall 120-120

Bills @ Patriots (-3.5)

The Patriots have secured their twelfth consecutive double-digit win season and have secured themselves a first week bye in the playoffs. It was not pretty last week, but they got the job done despite the offensive line struggling in pass protection, which they have not done since the early part of the season. We will have to see how they go, but having looked through the last few seasons I don’t see any let up in the final game despite having a good record.

Last week the Bills needed a win to keep themselves in the playoff race having got a great win against the Packers in week fifteen, however they dropped the ball in a disappointing loss to the Raiders. The Bills came into the game with the number one ranked defence by DVOA, but gave up a surprising 140 yards on the ground and were unable to force a turnover. Unfortunately for the Bills their offensive problems continued, and having given up the fourth most quarterback hits this season this perhaps is not surprising, but they were unable to regain the lead having given it up in the first quarter. This is where giving up a future first round pick in the draft hurts as there is no doubting Sammy Watkins talent, but what this team needs is a quarterback to throw the ball to him, and they have one less way to address the need in the offseason.

The reason I’m already turning to the offseason for the Bills is that I don’t see them travelling to the Patriots and winning, they’re just too hampered on offence.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Bears @ Vikings (-6.5)

Who would have through at the start of the season that the Bears would be playing a meaningless game as six and half point underdogs against the Vikings. The loss against the Lions might have been more respectable, but that is more to do with the Lions up and down offence than any dramatic improvement by the Bears. It will be interesting to see how they go about turning this mess around, and what happens to Jay Cutler as he returns to the starting line-up following Jimmy Clausen’s concussion, but I don’t see anything changing in this game as this team is going to need work in the offseason to fix its problems.

The Vikings have quietly had a solid season in Mike Zimmer’s first year, and if they can improve the offensive line to give Teddy Bridgewater better protection then they could really make some noise next year. The points worry me in this game, but I think they will finish the season strongly at home against one of the most disappointing teams of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Browns @ Ravens (-8.5)

There is actually quite a lot to be positive about when you look at the Browns’ season given the improvement in their record and how long they stayed in the playoff hunt in a competitive AFC North. The problem is that the one thing they needed to do having been eliminated from the playoffs was get Johnny Manziel as much playing time as possible to see what you have. Unfortunately, a pulled hamstring won’t even allow them to do that, and given that Brian Hoyer is out of contact at the end of the season and what we have already seen from Manziel so far, the Browns will need another quarterback of some kind going into next season. The fact that they are picking up a practice squad players to play quarterback in this game is not exactly inspiring.

I have been saying that the Ravens are a really good team with a glaring flaw thanks to the injuries they have had in the secondary, but there were more problems than that last week as they lost to the Texans. In fact, it wasn’t so much their secondary as the offence that cost them the game last week, with Joe Flacco throwing three interceptions and the running game only gaining thirty-three yards. I think they are still a good team, and that they will win this game, but the points make me nervous and the Browns will be desperate to be playoff spoilers in this game. The Browns have huge questions at quarterback, but their defence is ranked eleventh by DVOA and I just have a feeling this will be closer than nine points. I could be proved very wrong, and the Ravens need this win to make the playoffs, but this is a lot of points in the usually tight AFC North.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Cowboys @ Semi-Pros(+6.5)

The Semi-Pros managed a win last week despite fairly average numbers on offence, including a not particularly strong showing from Richard Griffin. I’m really not sure where this win came from, but I think there are too many flaws for them to be able to repeat the win this week.

The Cowboys wrapped up the division last week against a Colts team that really weren’t in the game at any point. Given the injury status of Murray and Romo it was surprising how much they played after the Colts pulled Andrew Luck. I don’t think they will have any problems against the Semi-Pros, even if they rest their injured players as the o-line is still going to one of the best in the league. Also, it is not like Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has shown much reluctance in risking injury to his players so far this season.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Colts @ Titans (+7.5)

The Titans have had an awful season, and having seen them last week I can see why as neither side of the ball looked good, and pass protection was a serious issue. This is a team that needs a serious overhaul, and it is likely going to take a couple of seasons for them to turn it round.

However, the Colts were not good last week, and having held out TY Hilton with a hamstring problem, were pretty awful in a lopsided loss to the Cowboys. Although there were a number of drops in that game, it has been several weeks since Andrew Luck has looked really good for four quarters. At some point they will have to address how much they are asking Luck to do for the team to win games, but for now they go where he and TY Hilton takes them.

I think they should win this game, but I’m not convinced that they will given their performance and what they have left to play for so in a week where I have to take chance to win, I’m taking the Titans to cover.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Chargers @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are a very solid team, but you can’t win consistently in the NFL without a passing game, and the stat that Alex Smith hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a receiver is now being talked about by everyone. I would imagine that this position would be a point of emphasis this offseason, but given the performance of this year’s rookie class, last year’s draft was the time to address the receiver position. They will keep themselves in this game as they do in most, but I’m not sure they have enough ways to win, particularly given that Alex Smith is now done of the season with a lacerated spleen.

This week the Chiefs welcome a Chargers team that still has something to play for as they can make the playoffs. The Chargers somehow managed to stay in the race despite losing another centre for the game against the 49ers with an ankle injury. They managed to get the win despite being 28-7 down at halftime and giving up 355 yards rushing yards. Furthermore, we’ve had it confirmed that Philip Rivers has been playing through a bulging disk in his back, which explains the variance in his play this season, but he did more than enough to win last week and if he can keep the interceptions down then the Chargers should have enough to win this week.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Jets @ Dolphins (-5.5)

The Dolphins did really well to get the come from behind win last week, but it must still rankle that they are not in the playoff hunt. It would seem to make sense to give Joe Philbin one more year given the improvement Ryan Tannehill has made during his first year in Bill Lazor’s offence, but there has to be disappointment that they are not part of the playoff race in the final week.

The Jets ran the Patriots close last week, but were unable to get the win, and this could very well be Rex Ryan’s last game as coach. It seems a shame given the success that he has had despite never having a good quarterback. However, despite Geno Smith saying he wants to be part of the solution, he hasn’t really convinced this year and threw another interception against the Patriots last week. The simple fact is that this team doesn’t have enough talent to win despite a pretty good front seven.

I can see the Jets competing in this one, and whilst I think the Dolphins can win, their run defence scares me and I’m changing my mind on this one given the points.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Saints @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers have had a surprisingly torrid season under Lovie Smith, who I expected to bring stability to this team, but whilst the defence has shown flashes some weeks, neither side of the ball has really shown much this season. The only bright spots have been the performances of rookie receiver Mike Evans and outstanding defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. It looks like the Bucs will have a shot at a quarterback if they like any of the top prospects, but it will take more than that to turn this team around so they should probably just take the best player available.

The Saints went all in on this season as they have cap problems and an ageing quarterback. Whilst you can see the logic in this decision, it has backfired horribly and it is an offseason of turmoil that this team are facing. That said, they still have Brees and Graham so I can’t see them dropping this final game of a dismal season.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants might have done enough to save Tom Coughlin’s job with a late season rally behind the outstanding rookie receiver Odell Beckham. Still, they will need several more drafts like this last one to replenish the talent of this squad.

Three straight losses have seen the playoffs slip out of reach for an Eagles team that have disproved the theory that Chip Kelly’s offence is quarterback proof. I actually feel sorry for Sanchez as he has achieved more than he is usually given credit for, but he can’t seem to overcome the turnovers.

The Giants still seem to be playing hard, where as the Eagles must be disappointed in the way the season is ending. However, I have been really impressed with Chip Kelly and I think there is a fundamental talent gap between these two teams so I’m taking the Eagles and the points.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)

The Texans came up with a win last week despite having to start Case Keenum at quarterback and their only touchdown pass coming from Arian Foster. However, they do at least stand a chance of getting a winning season, which is the least that JJ Watt’s fantastic play this season deserves. He has anchored a defence that is top ten in the league by DVOA and it is amazing how he continues to affect the game despite sometime garnering triple teams from opposing offences.

The Jaguars definitely are showing signs of promise, but this will have to turn into wins next season if Gus Bradey wants to keep his job. The problem in this game is that they are horrible in pass protection so JJ Watt could have a field day. However, their defence is very tough and I see them keeping it close against the Texans, who are now down to their third starting quarterback of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is a huge, winner gets into the playoffs game.

The Falcons had a horrible start to the year, losing pretty much an entire starting line-up of offensive lineman. Still, since the bye week they have gone 4-2, playing largely sold football on offence. Their defence has been horrible, but between Matt Ryan and their skill players they have enough fire power to keep themselves in games if the o-line can hold up long enough.

This week they go against a Panthers team that has struggled for long periods of the season. It was surprising to see Cam Newton run so much in week sixteen against the Browns just a week after fracturing two bones in his back in a car accident. However, they have not been consistent on either side of the ball, with the defence struggling to get a pass rush or cover receivers with their patched up secondary, and the offence sputtering with Newton’s inconsistent play across the season.

The fact of the matter is that the despite which team wins, we will have a team with a losing record in the playoffs, and I think that given how they have been playing recently I think that team will be the Falcons.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Raiders @ Broncos (-14.5)

By any team’s standards the Broncos have had a successful year, but the questions still surround Peyton Manning after he lost another game last week, his first against the Bengals. The fact of the matter is that he only needs to throw one more touchdown to have forty for the season and currently leads the league. He might not have looked at his best over the last few weeks, but he lead the comeback in the third quarter last week and this team has surrounded him with players that given them other ways to win. They should have more than enough to take care of the Raiders.

The Raiders may have a losing record for another year, but for the first time in a while they have hope in young players that they can build round. I don’t know who their coach will be, but they are heading in the right direction. However, whilst they may have improved, I don’t see them getting a final upset against the Broncos in this game. That said, with Peyton’s troubles over recent weeks, I don’t see why the Broncos are giving quite so many points to the Raiders, even if they are at home.

If anyone could prove me wrong, it is Manning and the Broncos, but this is simply too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This is a big game in the NFC North, and this line is a testament to how good the Packers have been at home as they lost to the Lions in Detroit. That said, whilst the Lions defence has been excellent all season, their offence has struggled for long stretches of the year and only scored twenty last week against a Bears defence that has been rotten all year.

This line does worry me a little, but Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal at home and I’m backing him to carry that forward into the playoffs. The real question will be if he can take it on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Rams @ Seahawks (-12.5)

The Seahawks have been playing great football over the last few weeks and no team will relish the trip to Seattle in the playoffs. Their defence has been at the heart of this resurgence, but even the offence got into the act last week, generating nearly six hundred yards with great games from Marshawn Lynch in the run game and Russell Wilson who generated yards with his arm and legs.

The Rams came back to Earth with a bump last week, losing to the Giants. Their defence has really come round, but the offence is struggling and they are another team who will be searching for an answer at quarterback in the offseason.

This is a lot of points, but the Seahawks are playing so well at home at the moment that I fancy them to cover the points.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Cardinals @ 49ers (-5.5)

The 49ers surprised me with how well they did last week, but whilst their offence did put up good numbers, they were going against a Chargers defence that was ranked twenty-third in the league by DVOA. It was good to see the long run from Colin Kaepernick, as it reminded you just what a physical talent he is, but next season he will need to develop in the pass game if this team are going to have more success. The 49ers will also need to improve their o-line for this to happen, as it has regressed markedly this season. Still, the main improvement could be stability at head coach as I don’t see how the turmoil that has surround Jim Harbaugh could have failed to affect the team.

The Cardinals are limping into the playoffs, with question marks surrounding their offence, and the quarterback in particular. Last week’s loss to the Seahawks was a rough one, but the Cardinals will be desperate to establish something on offence before they head into the playoffs. I am surprised by the number of points that the 49ers are giving in this game and I’m backing the Cardinals coaching staff who have done a phenomenal job of coping with the large number of injuries they’ve had this season.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Bengals @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Steelers are one of the scarier playoff prospects as when the offence takes off, be it Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown in the pass game or Le’Veon Bell in the run game, they can take over a game. The defence can show flashes, but you can exploit their secondary and the front seven can’t always bring the pass rush like they have in previous years. Still, this is a veteran team that knows how to win when it matters most.

The Bengals are almost the complete opposite in that prime time games have been an issue throughout Marvin Lewis’ tenure as head coach. One win against the Broncos on Monday Night Football does not change this, but it could be a turning point and the Bengals will be desperate to avenge the bad ten minutes they are claiming lost them the previous meeting with the Steelers, and defend their AFC North title. I can pretty much envision any result happening in this game, but I think it will be close so between getting points and blind optimism, I am backing the Bengals in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

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~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

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