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A Divisional Saturday

16 Saturday Jan 2021

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It’s the divisional playoff weekend and we have a series of tasty games to look at so let’s take a look at the Saturday night divisional games.

LA Rams (6th) @ Green Bay Packers (1st)

Our weekend starts with the Packers entering the playoff fray as they host the sixth seed Rams and whilst the Packers look like a strong contender with all roads in the NFC going through Green Bay, there are some potential weaknesses although not with the offence. In his second year running Matt LaFleur’s scheme all the questions from last season have been answered by Aaron Rodgers, who has looked masterful as he threw for over four thousand yards and an astonishing forty-eight touchdowns to five interceptions. He has been ably assisted by running back Aaron Jones who rushed for over a thousand yards despite missing two games and Davante Adams who has to be in any discussion of the best receivers in the league. The Packers offence is number one by DVOA for a reason, but it is a little lacking in depth behind these standout skills players and the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari before the final game of the regular season is a blow to an offensive line that as usual has been a strength of the team. The Packers beat the Bears soundly without Bakhtiari and he has missed other games this season, but the Rams defence is going to prove a sterner test. In fact, right now the Rams defence is the lead unit on their team but they have a big job in this game. In other circumstances with Sean McVay’s offence the Rams might hope to take advantage of an average Packers defence that has had glaring moments of weakness, but Jared Goff has underwhelmed in the last half of the season and has to go into the cold of Green Bay with a pin in his throwing thumb having fractured it only a couple of weeks ago. There is a formula for the Rams to win this game, particularly if Jalen Ramsey can limit Davante Adams and Aaron Donald plays up to his full potential. However, we cannot be totally sure what Donald will do in this game with the destructive defensive tackle having missed a chunk of the second half last week with a rib injury, which the Rams are saying is fine now but seeing will be believing. Ultimately, I have to feel that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have enough advantages to win out in this one, particularly given the situation for the Rams offence, but I am at least hopeful of a good contest to open up the week.

Baltimore Ravens (5th) @ Buffalo Bills (2nd)

I am really excited about the second Saturday game as it pits a surging Ravens team travelling to take on the Bills coming off their first playoff win in twenty-four years. The Ravens have now won six straight games and quarterback Lamar Jackson just won the first playoff game of his career, ending a frustrating narrative but if the Ravens are to win this conest, I think we need to focus on the other side of the ball. The Bills have the fifth best offence in the league by DVOA, which is all the more remarkable given Josh Allen’s completion percentage has jumped over ten points from last season to 69.2% in a second season of development that saw him go from an effective runner with an erratic but powerful arm to a genuine MVP candidate. In fact, the offence has transformed with the addition of Stefon Diggs and the evolution of their pass first offence that has seen offensive coordinator Brian Daboll interviewing for head coach jobs. The Ravens’ offence has been better in the second half of the season, but is still focussed on the run and if they hope to win in this game they need to keep control of the score and not fall too far behind as we still haven’t seen the Ravens succeed if game flow dictates that they have to pass the ball. This is a tough ask of the Ravens’ defence because much like the Chiefs, not only are the Bills a good offensive team but they are explosive and can put up points quickly. If the Ravens are to win this game, I think they must do so in a particular manner or prove that they can win whilst passing in a manner they have never managed before. The Bills defence has looked worse than expected for a lot of the season, but have been a bit better in recent weeks and in the end I like the Bills to win out in this one thanks to the power of their offence, but the Ravens always seem to play tough in the playoffs and I think this matchup has potential to be one of the great games of the season.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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2020 Wildcard Saturday

09 Saturday Jan 2021

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The expanded Wildcard Weekend is here, that unsurprisingly throws up a couple of tasty games, but thanks to the structure of the playoffs we have a lopsided road favourite, but we shall get to them in a bit.

Indianapolis Colts (7th) @ Buffalo Bills (2nd)

The play-offs start with a cracking matchup that sees the Colts take their seventh ranked defence by DVOA to Buffalo to see if they can stifle the Bills and their fifth ranked offence who have look as good as anyone in the league. The Bills come into this game having scored 48, 39, and 56 points in the last three weeks but the loss of slot receiver Cole Beasley could well cause this offence some problems as could the Colts defence. The addition of DeForest Buckner this off-season has helped the Colts’ pass rush and Darius Leonard continues to impress as a linebacker up there with any in the league. This Colts offence might be outside the top ten by DVOA, but Philip Rivers has added veteran leadership and has been splitting red-zone and short yardage snaps with Jacoby Brissett as the younger QB being better able or more willing to be his body on the line. In truth this is not your average play-off seventh seed given that the Colts won eleven games but with the Bills defence playing better in recent weeks and a perfect 6-0 following their bye week the Bills look like the team best placed to test the Chiefs in the play-offs. The improvement from Josh Allen in his third season is remarkable, with the ten point leap in completion precentage jumping out at you and I would expect him to lead the Bills to a first play-off win since the 1995 season. Anything else will be a disappointment for the Bills.

LA Rams (6th) @ Seattle Seahawks (3rd)

The second of the Saturday matchups is a game that is intriguing rather than one promising fireworks, but it is a divisional matchup that has potential. The LA Rams lost in a head scratching manner to the New York Jets of all teams in week fifteen, before losing to the Seahawks in a game that saw Jared Goff dislocate the thumb in his throwing hand although he finished the game. There were stretches of the season where Goff looked really good, but towards the end of the season the quarterback had a couple of bad games and after surgery on his thumb had to watch the Rams eek out an 18-7 win without an offensive touchdown in week seventeen for the Rams to secure their play-off spot. There is talk that Goff could be back for this game, but the Rams have not named the starter yet so it could be that John Wolford gets to start his second NFL game, and in the play-offs. Wolford offers more with his legs both on designed runs and scrambling to make plays than Goff, but does not have the potential to match Goff when he is playing well. The good news is the Rams are much more balanced than the year they went to the Super Bowl thanks to a defence that ranks fourth in the league by DVOA this season, anchored around the other worldly talents of defensive tackle Aaron Donald and corner Jalen Ramsey. The offence also welcomes back Andrew Whitworth from IR who barring setbacks is set to start at left tackle but it seems they will need to dig deep into head coach Sean McVay’s excellent playbook to get the win.

The Seattle Seahawks have been in contention all season, which is hardly a surprising statement given their 12-4 record, but I confess that it feels a little flattering to me. The Seahawks started the season strongly on offence with Russell Wilson throwing the ball all over the field, but as the season wore on and defences adjusted to the new attack the Seahawks faltered, losing two games in a row. The Seahawks traded for veteran pass-rusher Carlos Dunlap and as the Seahawks defence improved they also reverted to running more on early downs. This has brought them the 12-40record and the division, but I am concerned that Russell Wilson might have to find some truly special performances when he has not looked as good as he did to start the year if the Seahawks are to go deep into the playoffs. With the situation at quarterback, it is hard not to give the edge to the Seahawks, even if McVay has a good coaching record against them, but it wouldn’t be the shock of the century if the Rams were to find a way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5th) @ Washington Football Team (4th)

Thanks to the state of the NFC East, the final game on Saturday sees a 7-9 fourth seed hosting an eleven-win fifth seed. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are appearing in their first play-off game in thirteen seasons and will be looking for their first play-off win since the 2002 Super Bowl win. The addition of Tom Brady clearly helped the Bucs improve and with his playoff experience and their opposition the Bucs are favourites to win on the road, but might not have everything all their own way. The Bucs have at times looked as good as anyone in the league, with a plethora of pass catching options for Brady and a defence than can be truly scary. Any team who has a top five offence and defence should feel confident and the Bucs have definitely looked better towards the end of the season as Brady adjusted to the new team and scheme and got over the disrupted pre-season. However, the Washington Football Team made the play-offs thanks to their defence and in particular their defensive line. This is not to say that the Football Team will win, but with impressive rookie defensive end Chase Young leading the way you can see their pass rush getting pressure on Brady and as impressive as the veteran quarterback is, he was very quick to get rid of the ball even before he turned forty-three. The problem that Washington will have in this game is even if their defence can disrupt the Bucs and Brady on offence, there has been genuine discussion of a quarterback rotation as Alex Smith deals with a calf strain that has hampered the veteran quarterback in recent weeks. It takes nothing away from Smith’s incredible comeback from a horrific injury and post-surgery complications that nearly cost him his leg, but with Taylor Heinicke and his one career start being next in line it is hard to feel confident in Washington’s chances. This is still a season of progress for Washington who have not been to the play-offs since the 2015 season or won a play-off game since the 2005 season, and they had a record of 3-13 last year. In fact given the turmoil off the field, Ron Rivera’s transformation of the franchise is pretty remarkable and let us not forget that he has managed all this whilst undergoing treatment for cancer. There are no participation trophies in the NFL, but if you look at both quarterbacks and Rivera it is a remarkable achievement just to be involved in this game, but you know that Brady will see anything other than a win as a disappointed and I think I would be genuinely shocked if he didn’t get one more win tonight.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Maybe I Do Like Fantasy Football?

23 Wednesday Sep 2020

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It feels like on the field the news has been about injuries as we start to get a handle on how teams are shaping up after the shortened pre-season, whereas the news from the side lines are the head coaches who have been fined for violating the face-covering protocols and it was certainly odd to see Pete Carroll operating without a covering Sunday night. You would expect a coach to lead by example, and I am not surprised that having already released a sternly worded memo after week one, that fines are following.

What I Saw

Week two started with the Cleveland Browns getting the better of the battle for Ohio, but once again Joe Burrow was able to get the Bengals into contention by the end of the game that they ultimately lost 35-30. I have been impressed by the Bengals’ rookie quarterback who after only two games I am predicting is a franchise quarterback. If the Bengals can build an offensive line either through development in-season or through off-season acquisitions either by draft or free-agency then I think Burrow and this offence could be specials. Burrow gets the ball out, has not been overwhelmed by starting in the NFL despite a curtailed pre-season, and if he had a bit more support from the defence the Bengals might have won one of the opening pair of games they lost. Having watched this game, I went back to look at the Browns’ loss to the Ravens and whilst I still would say there are valid concerns about Baker Mayfield in his third year, the design of Kevin Stefanski’s offence should help him, particularly with its focus on running the ball, play action and QB bootlegs. There is a lot of talent on the Browns’ roster but it will be a concern that the Bengals made this a close game. Then again, given how the Chargers competed against the Chiefs this week and how good the Ravens look full stop, I think both the Browns and the Bengals are already showing progression from last season, even if the records don’t really show it yet.

I watched two of the early Sunday games this week. In my first, the LA Rams followed up on my podcast bold prediction (I’m really not sure I’m happy about Dan making me do this) and beat the Philadelphia Eagles comfortably 37-19. The Eagles still have not quite put things together in either the offensive or defensive phase of the game, but they do have the chance to get right this week against the Bengals. However, the Eagles’ usually strong pass rush was not able to bother Jared Goff, and while he may not be in the upper echelon of quarterbacks, if you give Goff time to run Sean McVay’s system then the Ram’s offence looks really good. The influx of youth at running back has got the Rams looking more like they did in the first two seasons under McVay, and with half a dozen players catching the ball there looks to be support for Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The defence isn’t particularly inspiring despite having two all-star talents in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsay, and currently ranks fourteenth in the league by DVOA, but it doesn’t have to be that good for the Rams to win and as they adjust to new coordinator Brandon Staley they may well improve. I have my concerns about the Eagles, but this is a team trying to bed in new players and dealing with injuries so whilst the playoffs are not beyond the realms of possibility yet, they will need to start finding some form soon. Still, the Bengals could be just the team they need to face…

The other early game I watched was the thoroughly entertaining contest that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Tennessee Titans, but ultimately losing 33-30. In truth, the Titans were the better team who now seem to play good enough defence and offence to always be competitive and this has been the case ever since Ryan Tannehill established himself as their starting quarterback last season. For the first few seasons that I was writing this blog, it felt like the Titans didn’t really have an identity or the players to catch your attention, but Mike Vrabel and some good drafting has changed all of that. A defensive ranking of seventeenth by DVOA and a top ten offence is a similar formula to the Rams and looks to be enough to compete in the AFC South dvision and perhaps have more success in the play-offs, although the Titans do look a step down from the truly elite teams. However, they did have to work for this game and part of that is because the Jaguars are looking pretty good for a team that a lot of people thought were in for a rebuilding year. However, rookie running back James Robinson looked dynamic running for one hundred yards and catching a a couple of balls out the backfield as Gardner Minshew continues to outplay his sixth round draft status. The young talent, when combined with the off-season hiring of Jay Gruden as offensive coordinator looks like it is going to be too good for the Jaguars to have the high draft pick some were suggesting was the goal for the season. Yes the Jaguars are playing a lot of young players, but it looks like they might have something and perhaps the absence of Tom Coughlin and his frequent fines is helping the talent flourish in Jacksonville. I’m not one for big predictions (despite Dan’s best efforts) but there might be some hope for Jaguars yet.

The Sunday night game was a humdinger of a battle between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots that the Seahawks held on to win 35-30 when their defence stuffed Cam Newton on a final chance to score a winning touchdown. It was looking ominous for the Seahawks as Newton lined up once again behind a jumbo formation in a shotgun position and received the snap. Newton had already delivered two rushing touchdowns and looked set to win the game, but the Seattle defence swarmed to stuff him short of the goal line. However, the exciting thing for the Patriots in this game was not that Newton looked good running the ball, but that he threw the ball as well as he has done for a long time. The power was there and the Patriots are beginning to look like a new iteration of their usual perennially successful franchise. Something similar could be said for the Seahawks, whose defence may be languishing as twenty-fourth by DVOA but are second in offence thanks to Russel Wilson playing outstandingly well. The drafting of DK Metcalf last year to pair with Tyler Lockett has given Russell a fearsome pair of receivers to throw to despite Doug Baldwin’s retirement. The Seahawks are one of three unbeaten teams in the NFC West, which is shaping up as the strongest division in the league, with last year’s Super Bowl runners up currently bottom of the divison with a 1-1 record thanks to a slew of injuries. This was a game that lived up to its Sunday night billing and I have a feeling both teams will be featured plenty of more times before the season is through.

What I Heard

It has been a busy week, but the thing that leaps to my mind is that a lot of people who power rank teams are vaulting the Ravens over the Chiefs into first in the league, and I can absolutely see why. If you win two games by over sixteen points to start your season and are top five by DVOA in all three phases of the game then you have not just got a good team, but a potentially great one. It is too early to say anything definitive, particularly based on DVOA given that we have an even smaller sample size to work from in week than usual due to the lack of pre-season games, but I am curious to see how things develop in the coming weeks. Particularly as we are being treated to the Chiefs visiting the Ravens on Monday night.

What I Think

It was frustrating not being able to get a coaching film post up last week. Some of that was work being busy, but there was also some kind of issues with getting coaching film at all last week as I heard several of the podcasters I listen to complaining about it, and the US usually get it a day earlier that we do. If I was really together, I should look at using a VPN to sign up for the US version of Gamepass again as the interface for the EU version is no where near as good as what we used to have. We don’t even get a list of plays to browse by when working with coaching film. It’s pretty frustrating that we are now multiple years into having an EU version of Gamepass and we’re still missing basic functions we used to have when signed up in the US. It’s also noticeable that the Twitter account for the EU NFL Gamepass service has disappeared, almost as if it was highlighting more problems than it was solving.

What I Know

I have avoided playing fantasy football for years after previous disappointments. I still believe in the importance of watching whole games, looking at coaching film, but I am enjoying our new dynasty league and not just because so far I’m winning games. It helps that we know everyone by name and I do like the dynasty format as it enables you to switch track if your teams accumulates too many injuries and with IR and the Taxi squad it feels like you are more in control of your own destiny. You’ll still need luck to win a championship, and it can still all go wrong even if you have made the right moves but that this way you still have options..

Let’s see if that’s how I feel when the losses start racking up.

What I Hope

I have seen that we already have coach’s film available as I was able to check the Seahawks defensive stand on the last play of the game on Sunday. I’m looking at some play diagramming options so there may well be some graphics in the future if I can get that to work. I’m just hoping I get to watch more than 3/8ths of a game this week so I can get an actual post up, but I will always have the memories of what happened to poor Ezekiel Elliot when the protection scheme meant he had to try to block Aaron Donald.

AFC and NFC West Preview

09 Wednesday Sep 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Pre-Season

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AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

How much is there to really say about the Chiefs? They won the Super Bowl last season, kept the core of their team intact including offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and look set to have another strong season. They extended Patrick Mahomes so they have him for ten years, extended disrupted defensive tackle Chris Jones and drafted a new running back for the offence. Said offence should stay one of the most fearsome in the league and may even be stronger given that Mahomes missed two games with injury last season. The defence will be back under Steve Spagnuolo for a second year and having improved their ranking from twenty-seventh by DVOA in the 2018 season to fourteenth in 2019, all they need to do is maintain a ranking somewhere around there to keep the team winning. You can never guarantee anything in the NFL, particularly this season but the Chiefs feel like one of the safest bets to be making a noise in the play-offs. Given how fun it is to watch an Andy Reid schemed offence, yet alone one helmed by a quarterback of the talents of Mahomes, I am sure everyone is planning to watch the Chiefs a lot this season. I certainly am.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos have not made the play-offs since they won the Super Bowl and have had a losing record  in each of the last three seasons, but there is some hope for the 2020 Broncos as there’s a possibility that John Elway has found a franchise quarterback. It was always going to challenge to follow Peyton Manning, even if he was limited in his passing ability during the final Super Bowl winning year. However, after a number of false starts the Broncos made second round draft pick Drew Lock the starter for the last five games of the 2019 season where he went 4-1. Now judging a quarterback solely on wins is a massive oversimplification so we should be wary of drawing too much from such a small sample of games, but it has at least given the Broncos a plan for the season. In his second year as head coach, Vic Fangio will be looking to get the defence to improve after it was ranked thirteenth by DVOA last season and losing a corner of the ability of Chris Harris will hurt but as defence tends to be more volatile from season to season than offence, a lot could rest on the Broncos being able to maintain a similar standard of defence and the offence improving. This is particularly the case with Bradley Chubb still making his way back from injury and All-Pro pass rusher Von Miller dislocating an ankle tendon and facing the real possibility of being out for the season. These previews have been giving me a series of things that I want to follow this season, and I think I need to take a look at Lock to see how he plays pretty soon. I’m not sure that the Broncos can compete for the playoffs, although with the expanded format it is possible, but it might not take too much to catapult the Broncos up there so definitely a team to keep an eye on.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders get to open the Death Star, or Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas as it’s properly called behind closed doors, and there is still much to uncover about this team. Last season’s 7-9 record was an improvement for Jon Gruden but he has yet to have a winning season since re-joining the Raiders in 2018 and will be looking to get back to winning ways this year. There are still questions about Gruden’s commitment to his starting quarterback Derek Carr, but the offence really wasn’t the problem last season. A ranking inside the top ten by DVOA on offence will not satisfy Gruden, but it was a defence that was ranked thirty-first and special teams that ranked twenty-fifth that sank last season’s team. Ex-Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther had good success in Cincinnati when he took over their Defence from Mike Zimmer, but last season the Raiders’ signing of Vontaze Burfict backfired, and the loss of big hitting rookie safety Johnathan Abram didn’t help. I don’t know if Guenther will be able to improve a defence that has ranked thirty-first by DVOA for two seasons in a row, but if he can’t that will only increase the pressure for Gruden to improve the offence. There seems to be a rotating cast of receivers, although last year’s rookie running back Josh Jacobs impressed until his shoulder injury hampered his ability to get on the field late in the season. This is another team where there is a lot up in the air and with the shortened off-season I don’t know what to expect, but I think the season likely rests on getting the defence to at least be respectable.

LA Chargers

The Chargers are something of an enigma. They have a talented roster but have struggled on the offensive line and have been bitten by the injury bug often. They may have an advantage compared to the rest of the league when playing in empty stadiums as unlike last season where their home games often had more away fans than their own, at least they can control the environment in the shiny new SoFi Stadium. I like Anthony Lynn as a coach and there is a lot of intriguing talent on the roster, but they paired a twelfth ranked offence by DVOA with the twenty-fifth ranked defence and were dead last special teams. Even with Philip Rivers moving to Indianapolis there is hope for the offence and the Chargers have just extended the contracts of pass rushing duo Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, but the injury bug has already bit with last season’s rookie sensation First-Team All-Pro safety Derwin James on IR with a torn meniscus. The Chargers won or were within a touchdown in fourteen of their sixteen games last season, so they were close to a much better record, but in a tough division where they have to face the Chiefs twice and travel to face Denver in high-altitude I don’t know if they can expect a huge turn around. I think it is possible, but they would need to be healthy for once and have some bounces go their way. It feels like the Chargers are due a run of luck, but with Tyrod Taylor as starting quarterback it is hard to predict that they will do much more that be competitive this season unless Taylor improves on his previous record.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

Last season the 49ers finally delivered on the promise they have flashed through the rebuild masterminded by head coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch. A fearsome defence ranked second only to the Patriots by DVOA was paired with a top ten offence that Shanahan schemed to enough success for them all the way to the Super Bowl and they should be in contention again this year. However, they did trade defensive linemen DeForest Buckner away to allow them the cap flexibility to retain other players and they are already having problems at receiver with multiple players injured before the team have taken a competitive snap against another team. Shanahan is such a good coach that unless the number of injuries gets too big they 49ers should be able to compete, but the NFC West looks like a fearsome division so there could be a surprise or two in store.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks come into the 2020 season on the back of eight consecutive winning seasons, despite having to overhaul the vaunted Leigion of Boom defence in the last couple of seasons. In Russell Wilson they have one of the best quarterbacks in the league and last year’s rookie receiver DK Metcalf flashed alongside Tyler Lockett whilst Chris Carson was again the running back required to fit the run focussed offensive game plan that Pete Carroll wants to run. I do wonder how much home advantage the Seahawks will lose by not being able to play in front of their famously loud home crowd, but it is hard to see them do anything other than compete as that is Carroll’s mantra and even at the start of his time in Seattle, Carroll’s two losing seasons were still 7-9. That said, the usually strong defence was only ranked twenty-first by DVOA and whilst you have to go back to 2016 to find them ranked inside the top ten, their offence has not been that explosive so we shall have to see how this team does without the help of the home crowd.

LA Rams

The Rams failed to make the play-offs for the first time in Sean McVay’s three years with the franchise, and there was plenty of talk that teams had worked out the McVay’s offence. That said, the Rams still went 9-7, and later in the season the Rams started to use more 12 personnel as McVay adjusted to the adjustments opposing defences had made to his scheme. The Rams were also not helped by the dip in play from Todd Gurley that led to him being cut in the off-season and this was one of a number of adjustments the Rams had to make to the roster to get themselves under the salary cap. They also fired defensive coordinator Wade Philips, which is one of bigger decisions McVay has made in his tenure and could be an interesting one to monitor as  the defence was ranked top ten by DVOA last season and Philips is very experienced coach, but the only big names left on the defence are Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Now Donald is arguably the most important non-quarterback in the league and a bona fide pass rush nightmare, but Donald plus a lockdown corner in Ramsey does not a defence make and with a number of defensive starters gone from last season it is not hard to see a slip on that side of the ball this year. I wouldn’t count the Rams out, but there are enough questions that you can’t simply put them in the play-offs. With the expanded wildcard slots I wouldn’t rule out them being there or there abouts, but this could be a big season for McVay’s long term prospects in LA.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals knew they were in for a long rebuild going into last season, but their 5-11 record was not actually that bad considering the 3-13 disaster it followed and there were some promising things to take away. Although Kyler Murray (their second first round quarterback selection in two years) didn’t set the league alight, he showed promise and proved that he could get through a season despite the size that many were worried about. Murray looked to have the Russell Wilson knack of not taking the big hit and although his college now NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury had to adjust his scheme when it didn’t work when facing NFL defences, he did just that and so they come into the season hoping to build on last year. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins is upgrade to the Cardinals’ receiver group, although the continuing presence of Larry Fitzgerald also reassures but he must retire soon and so Hopkins is a valuable addition for the next couple of years at least. The defence still needs work but I am curious about how this team does so I look forward to monitoring how they progress this season.

NFL Tankapalooza 2019: Who Wants the Prize?

16 Wednesday Oct 2019

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We are already a third of the way through the regular season and each conference has only one unbeaten team left, but the league’s two winless teams reside in the AFC as the Bengals join the Miami Dolphins in NFL Tankapalooza 2019. The difference is that the Dolphins were built with this in mind whilst the Bengals were planning to compete before the roster fell apart, but more of that later. For now, let’s make a start on rounding up NFL week six.

What I Saw

The Thursday night game was a bit of an odd one in week six as the unbeaten New England Patriots neat the New York Giants 34-14 but their offence still does not look in sync. In fact the opening score of the game was caused by the Giants’ punter hitting his own player and the Pats recovering and scoring a touchdown, but that said the Patriots’ offence ranks top ten by DVOA through week six and have we not learnt by now not to question Tom Brady? Even if there is no way he should be performing as well as he is this far past thirty-five, yet alone forty. When you pair this institutional success with the number one ranked defence you can see why people are already talking up another Super Bowl appearance for the Pats. There is still a long way to go though. This can also be said for the Giants who on top of starting a rookie quarterback, had a number of skills players injured and were never really going to compete in this one. It will take time to improve the roster and you can still make an argument that Daniel Jones would have been there at pick seventeen, but the Giants would argue that if Jones is a franchise quarterback there is no price too high to pay. It is too early to tell and somehow they are only one game back in the NFC East and whilst I’m really not expecting them to make a playoff push, they will be looking to play spoiler in the division and develop their young talent.

The first game I watched from Sunday was the second London game that saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers become the second team to host at the new Tottenham Stadium as they lost 37-26 to the Carolina Panthers. The big takeaway from this game was that bad Jameis Winston turned up and gave away the ball seven times. He threw five interceptions, lost two fumbles and had a further two recovered by the team. You know it is going to be a bad day when your first pass is intercepted, and Winston managed to begin a second quarter drive with an interception as well as fumbling two plays in a row in another to make sure the opposition got the ball. It doesn’t matter if you throw for four hundred yards if your touchdown to interception ratios is 1:5 and it feels like we have the answer about one of the can’t miss quarterbacks of the 2015 NFL Draft (spoiler alert, the other features later). The steady play saw the Panthers win out eventually as Kyle Allan continues to keep the team in the race as Cam Newton focuses on getting truly healthy. There is already some talk of there being a controversy when Newton is healthy given the Panthers have done nothing but win since Allen got the start. The other things that struck me about the Panthers in this game was the depth of their defensive line as having put Kawann Short on the injury list they still had Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe to play in the middle. It might be lazy to suggest that McCoy might have had a point to prove against his old team, but two and half sacks with four quarterback hits is a good day and the team finished with seven sacks.

Having seen that the New York Jets had won the first game of the season and with them being one of the few teams I haven’t seen yet I made a point of watching them heap further problems onto the Dallas Cowboys. It was an impressive turn around for Gang Green with Sam Darnold having his first three hundred yard passing day that included several beautifully placed balls and a ninety-two yard touchdown pass. The Jets are not suddenly a playoff team but it just highlights what a difference a starting quarterback can make and we now have eleven games to more fairly judge where they are as a team. The Cowboys however, will be very worried by a result that doesn’t doom their push for the playoffs but certainly doesn’t help. There seems to be less motion pre-snap to my eyes and Ezekiel Elliott is struggling to get going in the run game. This won’t be helped by injuries to both starting tackles, nor receiver Amari Cooper leaving the game early in the first quarter so you can perhaps expect some regression from the offence, but the defence is relatively healthy and currently ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. I can’t pretend to have a huge amount of faith in Jason Garrett to turn things around but to do so the Cowboys need to get back to the formula that was working in the first three games,. Whether they can depends on health and coaching, but one to watch in the coming weeks.

The final game I watched this week is the latest loss for the Cincinnati Bengals who started the game with a kick-off return touchdown that sadly represented 41% of the Bengals total points as they lost 23-17 on the road to the Baltimore Ravens. I’m not sure how much this tells us about the Ravens given how the Bengals’ offensive spluttered and how Lamar Jackson is the perfect running quarterback to exploit the issues the Bengals have at the edge of their defence. This season is a lost cause for the Bengals and there are some worrying injuries to the Ravens secondary, which could be a problem for a defence that uncharacteristically languishes in the twenties by DVOA but the Ravens have a two game lead in the AFC North so remain the team to beat in the division.

I have a little addition for this week courtesy of Fran Duffy, an Eagles media employee who does several really good podcasts and watches a lot of film – there was really good breakdown of quarters coverage during this week’s Eagle Eye in the Sky Podcast and a breakdown of the play on this video.

What I Heard

I’ve already mentioned the big news of the weekend in terms of the Jets, but at the other end of the quarterback performance spectrum Jared Goff threw for only seventy-eight yards in the Rams loss to the 49ers. The Rams have reacted to the problems they are having on defence by trading away two first round picks to the Jaguars for Jalen Ramsey, who should certainly help their secondary. However, the problem with that is the combination of offensive line play and the injury restriction of Todd Gurley is hampering their offensive. This is compounded by the contracts they have given both Gurley and Goff when neither of them are carrying the offence right now. I understand going for it when you have a quarterback on a rookie deal but with the likes of Aarond Donald, Gurley and Goff all having big contracts this could become a real problem, particularly as Gurley’s knee is not going to improve massively given that he is suffering from an arthritic condition. The Rams could really miss those draft picks in the coming seasons.

The other quarterback I should mention is the other 2015 quarterback that will always be paired with Jameis Winston, namely Marcus Mariota who was pulled for Ryan Tannehill on Sunday and who has lost his starting position for this week’s games. This is a timely reminder that high drafted quarterbacks don’t always work out and a quarterback needs a lot of infrastructure around them to succeed. I think you can rebuild a team through a roster reset, but I don’t know it is a sure thing and whilst I like accumulating draft talent through getting more picks – if I was a Dolphins fan I would be worried about the talent that has left and whether one of those high draft picks is definitely going to be a franchise quarterback.

The other big topic of conversation has been the standard of officiating with the end of the Monday night game coming in for particular condemnation, but there was also a flurry of flags towards the end of the Jets and Cowboys. It’s too easy to rip the refs, particularly as football is very complex game to referee and the speed of the game has only got faster but there have been some pretty bad non-calls or ticky-tacky pass interference decisions. That said, it’s not the small calls that really annoy but the egregious ones and it seems pretty clear from the success rate of coach challenges that only those kind of pass interference calls are going to get overturned so can we get a memo to all head coaches to stop throwing the challenge flag unless someone actually got mugged and it was missed.

What I Think

I was glad that Mason Rudolph was able to go straight back to practice and the Bengals have announced today Cordy Glenn has been cleared to practice. These are grown men who are making their own decisions, but as someone who’s had his own issues with head injuries, I really hope they are listening to their doctors and are being duly careful. It seems to be the repeated sub-concussive blows rather than the big hits that cause a lot of the problems, but Glenn has been out for a couple of months now and as a linemen he is exposed to a lot of those sub-concussive blows. The Bengals could really do with a healthy Glenn, but the world could do with a healthy Glenn a lot more.

What I Know

I have really struggled to get to coaching tape this year, and even my re-arranged plan didn’t survive my work week and I have another series of interruptions coming this week. I’m not giving up on getting something done, but hopefully things will calm down in a couple of weeks, but that said I will be down in London to watch the Bengals in week eighth and suddenly we’ll be halfway through the season. Man is it slipping by quickly this year.

What I Hope

There is talk that AJ Green could be coming back soon and it would be really great to see him play live again and for the Bengals to be at least competitive against the Rams. In the meantime I hope that I can stay competitive in the picks competition as it looks like the only football based season win I’m going to get this year.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

AAF: Khalil Mack

06 Sunday Oct 2019

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For the first time this year I have managed to get through a complete game of coaching tape so I present to you for your pleasure the inaugural 2019 Amateur Adventures in Film post where I decided to cheer myself up after the fourth Bengals loss this season by taking a look at Khalil Mack playing the Minnesota Vikings, just in time for his revenge game against the team that drafted him and then traded him away.

The first thing that really struck me about this game is going to sound odd, as watching Mack the thing that I was most reminded of was a previous AAF post where I looked at the Cleveland Browns left tackle Joe Thomas. I know it sounds odd to compare a defensive edge player to a left tackle, but the thing that struck me about this game was not Mack’s explosive destruction to the Vikings offence so much as the control and balance he played with throughout the game. That is what brought that particular Joe Thomas game to mind, Mack was playing inside the system, setting the edge, and yes doing things that looked spectacular when the game called for it but the Bears defence is such a good unit that Mack was playing in a controlled way that seemed different to the way say a JJ Watt or Aaron Donald play when they’re wrecking a game. It is also different for an edge player as if you don’t play with discipline then you open passing/running lanes for the defence, where as for Watt/Donald their role in the defence is to cause that chaos from the interior of the line.

That said, there were plenty of moments where Mack went around the offensive tackle with speed or used speed to power to cut in and pressure Kirk Cousins. However, whilst there were longer plays left on the field by Cousins, one of the things about him getting the ball out of his hands quickly to players running shorter routes was he did limit the Bears ability to get to him, yet he still got sacked six times. Probably the biggest of Mack’s plays was at the start of the second half where he dipped under left tackle Riley Reiff’s attempted block and got a free run to Cousins and came swiping in for the strip sack. It is on plays like that when Mack can turn a game for you. In fact, the only time the Vikings moved the ball consistently was on their touchdown drive where they caught the Bears with Mack off the field and took advantage as they were running no huddle for most of the drive. It was also the only time they managed to keep the Bears’ defence off balance and they still relied on under passes to Dalvin Cook as well as Stefon Diggs making plays from the edge.

Throughout the game Mack seemed to move between the left and right edge, rushing from a three-point stance or as an outside linebacker and the Bears mixed up their fronts a lot when not playing in their base 3-4 defence. I came away very impressed, but more at the control and precise application of power. It may not have been the most explosive tape I have watched but it was a lot of fun to look at, and I have a feeling that Mack will be out to do a lot more today against his old team in London. I think those heading to the first of the London games are in the treat – I’m a little bit jealous to tell you the truth and I really don’t understand why you would trade a player of this talent away. Sometimes you have to say to hell with the value you are being offered, this is a cornerstone player, and to my mind Khalil Mack is absolutely one of those players.

The Other Quarterbacks

26 Thursday Sep 2019

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It would appear that a quicker process was what was needed to improve my picks in week three, but sadly there was no respite for Dan or I in terms of our teams doing anything other than losing. Still, here we go with my trip through the NFL this week.

What I Saw

Week three started with a one-sided Thursday night game that never quite took off as the Jacksonville Jaguars made a mockery of my pick by grinding out a 20-7 win over the Tennessee Titans. This was a game dominated by penalties and the Jaguars pass rush that sacked Marcus Mariota a massive nine times. The Titans have a real problem as they are good enough to compete across the roster bar quarterback with Mariota holding onto the ball and reluctant to throw the ball deep. This competitiveness will make it difficult for the team to replace Mariota if the team do decide to move on and I wonder at what point we might see Ryan Tannehill get a start if things don’t improve for the Titans offence. Meanwhile, the confident Gardiner Minshew II (I do enjoy that his father’s name is not Gardiner Minshew – he was just creative when registering his son’s name) did enough in his first start to get the Jaguars their first win of the season. The strange thing was the Jaguars defence finally looked really good this week yet it seems as if they are still likely to lose arguably their best player in Jalen Ramsey. In a division that is wide open it would be a curious move indeed to trade him, as was playing him in this game if you intend to trade him and having reported sick on Monday he is on the injury list for his lower back. I still do not trust this team but if their defence can play like this a little more often and Minshew can keep the offence ticking over when the opponent’s defence has time and film to game plan for him fully then the Jaguars could climb back into contention in the division.

The next game I watched was the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Arrowhead stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, but whilst the Ravens were able to generate over four hundred and fifty yards of offence they were not able to move the ball consistently enough to beat the Chiefs in their home opener falling to a 28-33 loss. The score is actually closer than it was for a lot of game even if the Ravens did get the first touchdown of the contest but Patrick Mahomes had another spectacular second quarter as the Chiefs scored twenty-three points that included two spectacular catches from the young Cheifs’ receivers. First Demarcus Robinson pulled in a lovely one-handed catch and then Mecole Hardman took advantage of a broken coverage to score on an eighty-three yard play that put the Chiefs 20-6 up. There was plenty of production from the Ravens offence, which managed over two hundred rushing yards as part of their day and several splash plays of their own including a several moments of rushing brilliance from Lamar Jackson. However, too many drives stalled and they cost themselves three points from failed two-point conversions, which is an interesting tactical choice when you have one of the most reliable kickers in the league. It was clearly a deliberate tactic and I don’t know the relative percentage of two-point tries versus extra points to do the maths, but if the Ravens had made all of them that would turn a five point deficit into a one point win so I can see what they were trying to do.

I’m not sure I want to write about the Cincinnati Bengals, but I’ll try as they travelled to Buffalo and suffered their third loss of the season falling 21-17 having taken a three point lead with under five minutes to go. However, whilst the record is lousy, the Bengals aren’t all that bad but maddeningly inconsistent. If they could put more consistent good play across four quarters I can see how they could be good – particularly as the pass rush is really good but the run game has been inconsistent ad I wonder where the team will be when they visit London at the end of October. Meanwhile, the Bills continue to be a tough team to face thanks to a stingy defence and an offence that seems to be doing enough. In his second year quarterback Josh Allen is finding a way to compete and the combination of him, TJ Yeldon and the ever reliable Frank Gore dominated a running game that generated one hundred and seventy-five yard. I don’t know if they can beat the visiting Patriots next week, but I suspect it will be a competitive game.

The final game of the week that I watched was the LA Rams travelling to Cleveland to beat the now 1-2 Browns: 20–13. For all the talk of offensive prowess about both teams in the off-season, this was a grind it out defensive contest that seemed to pit the Rams pass rush against the Browns generating three interceptions. The Browns got pressure of their own but it seemed that Jared Goff was the quarterback more prepared to take risks and paid the price in interceptions. However, he did enough to put twenty points on the board even with a missed field-goal, whilst the Browns offensive line seemed to scupper the Brown’s ability to move the ball consistently. The Browns looked good both running the ball with Nick Chubb and passing the ball when Baker Mayfield had time, but were not able to sustain drives regularly enough thanks to multiple Rams’ defenders getting into the backfield and harassing Mayfield. It’s no surprise that Aaron Donald played really well in this game, but the combination of him with Dante Fowler and Clay Mathews really worked for the Rams when rushing the passer with Mathews in particularly looking as good as he has done for several seasons. The saving grace for the Browns is that they have yet to play a divisional opponent but next week they travel to face the Ravens who are the early favourites to win the division. Even starting 1-3 wouldn’t necessarily scupper the Browns chances of making the playoffs given the state of the AFC North so far this season but this first AFC North game against the Raven is now massively important and the Browns have not convinced so far.

What I Heard & What I Think

I’m combining two section this week thanks to the scope of quarterback stories this week, but I’ll try to get back to my normal subjects next week.

There has been a lot of discussion about quarterback this week, which is understandable given that even discounting the Colts’ enforced change in quarterback we now have seven teams starting a different player than was planned at the start of the season. What’s more several teams got wins off the back of their new starter at quarterback. I have already mentioned Gardiner Minshew II who has been getting lots of headlines thanks to the various urban legends that are doing the rounds but one of the other performances that leapt out was by Kyle Allen who led the Panthers to their first win of the season. I don’t think this will necessarily create a quarterback controversy unless Cam Newton cannot get back to the level of performance he has in previous years, but what it does do if Allen can maintain this level of performance then the Panthers can afford to wait unit Newton is fully healthy before returning to the game. This is why whilst no team can afford to have two quality starters on the roster, a good veteran or a promising young player can turn around or rescue a season if they only need to do it for a short stretch.

For instance, the investment the Saints put into making Teddy Bridgewater one of the highest paid backups paid off when he stepped up and won on the road in Seattle. He didn’t look great, but he kept the Saints moving and got them a good win.

However, the other type of quarterback we saw step up was the high pick rookie. A lot of the headlines have gone to Daniel Jones because he plays for the New York Giants but Jones also got a win in his first start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game I’ll be looking at for this week’s Amateur Adventures in Film. It seems the days of a high round rookie quarterback sitting for an entire year are pretty much gone as even Patrick Mahomes got to start week seventeen of his rookie year. Sooner or later a highly drafted player is going to start. I suspect the next one will be in Washington but at what point I don’t know.

What I Know

That someone at the bottom of the AFC North should get their first win of the season next Monday, although it would be just my luck if the teams managed a second tie of the season.

What I Hope

That the Bengals don’t forget themselves against the Steelers and give a good account of themselves in front of the nation on Monday night.

It’s going to be a long wait…

AAF: How the Super Bowl was Won

10 Sunday Feb 2019

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So as usual for my final post of the 2018 season I have gone through the coaching tape of the Super Bowl, and this year I was looking at the New England Patriots’ offence going up against the LA Rams’ defence.

I will probably watch the reverse match-up, but given the media focus on the Super Bowl has featured lots of tape focus and the news cycle moving on to the off-season already it shall be for my own amusement and stay in my notebook rather than generating another post. I mention it because I already know the Patriots’ defence lined up with six on the line and jammed the outside zone rush as this alignment stopped the Rams offence line being able to double team. I know this through the discussions I listened to and whilst I always learn things from such discussions, I do try to limit these posts to what I was able to see myself, so on to how the Rams managed to limit the Patriots to just thirteen points.

The first thing I should mention is that a numbers fact has my notes wrong about the defence personnel used in my notebook as whilst Mark Barron wore number twenty-six, which to my eyes has him as a member of the secondary, he is listed as an inside linebacker so the Rams played a lot of 3-4 defence. Now, the hybrid line still did come into play when they played nickel and dime as they would stick to three defensive linemen and outside linebacker Dante Fowler rushing from a standing position on either side of the line. It has become increasingly common for linebackers to become lighter so they can match up against the speed NFL defences currently are using, but it does make life interesting when you face a team like the Patriots who still use 21 personnel a lot and you have an inside linebacker like Barron who is only (only!) 230 Ibs.

One  of the interesting things to me watching this game back on tape compared to me live tweeting with Dan during the game, is I remember a period of the game where I was worried about the Patriots getting away from the run, which seemed odd as whilst they were having problems sustaining long drives, they were successful running the ball. Watching back however, it was only at the end of the first half when they were running two-minute offence that they dropped back and passed a lot. However, they did go quite pass heavy at times because one of the features of this game was the way that Julian Edelman was able to get open in the passing game.

The Patriots moved Edelman in motion a lot, allowing him to get free releases and in space without hands on him Edelman is lethal because of how shifty he is. I saw multiple Rams defensive backs fail to stay with him, and even when they moved Marcus Peters to follow him, who did a better job of covering him there were still plays where Edelman got wide open.

However, the Patriots didn’t have it all their own way so what did the Rams do to have the success on defence they did? Well partly, their defensive coordinator Wade Philips mixed in more zone than I am used to seeing with his defence, and he managed to confuse and disrupt Tom Brady enough to stop the Patriots from being able to sustain long drive. This was despite the Patriots running for over one-hundred and fifty yards from thirty-plus carries. Now these figures benefit from some long runs in the fourth quarter, and certainly a combination of Ndamukong Suh, Aaron Donald, and Dante Folwer all stuffed runs for short gains or losses, but the real problem was that apart from Edelman the Patriots receivers were not able to get open consistently. There were some lovely plays by Rob Gronkowski in the passing game, but Chris Hogan couldn’t bring in any of his six targets and apart from two quick passes to Cordarrelle Patterson no other Patriots receiver caught the ball and even the reliable James White out of the backfield connection was off with him only able to catch one of his four targets. This lack in the passing game meant that the Rams were able to make enough splash plays to limit the Patriots and thanks to an outstanding day of punting by Johnny Hecker the Rams defence were never put in bad field position.

There has been talk that Brady has been off this year, and certainly his receivers played a part in not being open, but there were also throws he flat missed with his first being intercepted as he simply didn’t account for the zone exchange between Rams defenders and so Nickell Robey-Coleman was able to get under Chris Hogan and bat the ball into the air so Corey Littleton could get the interception. If the Rams front seven were largely handled by the Patriots offence, Littleton did really impress me as the linebacker who never came off the field, led the team in tackles and got two pass deflections as well as this interception.

If anything won this game for the Patriots, it was a late game adjustment on offence that I have seen the Patriots use before, but which we since heard had not been practised. The Patriots lined up on the drive where they got the touchdown in 21 personnel, but lined up in shotgun flexing out full-back James Develin and this gave them the match-ups they needed to move the ball in chunks and get to the goal-line so they could run the ball in.  The Patriots found one play they ran three times out of different looks and threw the ball to different receivers and that was basically the game. So even when he wasn’t at his best, Brady was able to execute Josh McDaniels’ tactical switch, which is a very Patriots way to win a game as once more it demonstrates why their focus is on smart players and tactical flexibility.

If you had offered the Rams before the game that they would limit the Patriots to thirteen points, I’m sure they would have taken it expecting that to be enough to win the game.  The Rams defence did enough to win this game and Wade Philips demonstrated all his experience, but the Rams offence couldn’t finish the game off and that will hurt for a long time.

Super Bowl Sunday

03 Sunday Feb 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Here we are on Super Bowl Sunday, and there’s a game to preview and a number of trivia questions to separate Dan and I in our competition.

‘A bumper crop of questions in the hope that a winner can be found – along with a tie breaker which would only come into play if we are still at loggerheads. So, here goes:

In the 2018 Regular season – who scored the

  1. Long kick return   (For 1 point)
  2. Longest Pass   (1 point)
  3. For Superbowl LIII I want to know which conference has had most wins in the preceding 52? To be clear the NFC includes the NFL and the AFC the AFL.   (1 Point)
  4. Which QBs have Played in 4 Superbowl’s and won all 4   (2 points)
  5. How many franchises, including teams that have relocated to another city, have won the Super Bowl?   (1 point)

And finally, the Hail Mary Tie-breaker……… IF it’s needed.

In the 2018 season what was the Aggregate Total of Passing Yards of all 32 Teams.

Its Game On – Over to you.’

So this is a pretty tough set of questions and I’ll try to work my way through with guess work as I don’t know:

  1. I’m struggling on this one, but I think Alex Erickson of the Bengals had a long one, like over seventy yards, and whilst it wouldn’t surprise me if there was one from the endzone, I can’t think of it.
  2. I’m not exactly sure on this one either, but I feel comfortable in plumping for a guess of Patrick Mahomes as it’s not exactly a stretch for him to have the longest pass of the season.
  3. Okay, so I’m going to go with the maths on this one, and hope that fifty-two is a large enough sample size for the big runs to even themselves out. However, whilst I suspect the numbers are close, I do remember the ridiculous run of NFC winners we had in the mid-eighties into the nineties thanks to the Cowboys and 49ers so I’m guessing NFC.
  4. This one is one that I think I have a solid guess at assuming I’m right in thinking two points equals two names, and whilst there are a few quarterbacks with a great pedigree, I’m going to name Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the logical guesses given their team’s successes and hope that Steve Young isn’t going to trip me up!
  5. So I think this is actually going to be surprisingly low given that there have been fifty-two games, but we have had a lot of teams like the Steelers, 49ers, Patriots who have won a lot so even throwing in moved franchise I’m going to guess at something like twenty-five

Bonus question time!

I could actually work this out from data but I’ll employ a little maths and as I know that the Chiefs threw for over five thousand yards, and guessing the lowest is somewhere around say three thousand so the mid-point is say four thousand yards. That would give me total of one-hundred and twenty-eight thousand passing yards for thirty-two teams as a rough guess.

‘Ok, my final trivia answers. With everything neck and neck (we promise it wasn’t planned this way!!):

  1. Long kick return – I feel this is unfair, but I’ll take it! Jakeem Grant of the Dolphins got a 102 yarder against the Titans week one. It was also the longest game of the season. I’ll take the extra point there too…!
  2. Longest Pass – Not sure about this, it really could be anyone. I’ll say Patrick Mahomes.
  3. For Superbowl LIII I want to know which conference has had most wins in the preceding 52? – Hmmm… bit of a toss-up here. I’ll guess at the AFC
  4. Which QBs have Played in 4 Superbowl’s and won all 4 – it’s going to have been a while back, so I’ll go with John Elway and Joe Montana
  5. How many franchises, including teams that have relocated to another city, have won the Super Bowl? This will be quite high, but I know not everyone has… I’ll go with 26

In the 2018 season what was the Aggregate Total of Passing Yards of all 32 Teams. – 128,000 is my guess. To show my working, I’d say the best teams get about 5000, and the worst end up on about 3000, so averaging at 4000 per team, over 32 teams, makes 128k.’

So with the trivia competition out of the way it is time turn our attention to tonight’s game.

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams

I will start by looking at both teams when they have the ball and the I’ll throw in some final comments and there will be nothing left to write before the big game.

The match-up of the game for me will the Patriots’ defence going against Rams’ offence so that’s where I will start. The often-cited tactics of Bill Belichick is to take away what you want to do and force you to play left handed. I’m not sure who they will focus on in terms of coverage, but I imagine given how much of the Ram’s offence is based off running the ball and play-action, that the Patriots will want to force Jared Goff to be a drop back passer and dare him to beat them with his arm. Now the Rams almost lucked into a powerful backfield duo when they picked up CJ Anderson late in the season to spell Todd Gurley who was struggling with a knee injury. The Rams are insisting that Gurley is healthy despite him spending most of the Conference Championship game on an exercise bike and one of the big unknowns in this game is how effective Gurley will be. That said, Anderson has rushed for over one-hundred yards in three of the four games he has played for the Rams since getting signed in December.

The story of the Rams’ offence this season has been the use of 11 personnel and the myriad of looks and motions they build of this group of starters who predominantly play the whole game. However, in recent weeks they have been mixing in more 12 personnel with the extra tight-end helping in both the running and passing game. The don’t have a dominant receiver, with both Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks finishing the regular season over twelve-hundred yards and within fifteen yards of each other. The loss of Cooper Kupp to injury did seem to disrupt Jared Goff but Josh Reynolds has done what he can from the slot to replace him.

I am really looking forward to this match-up as it is the meat of the contest between the all time great Bill Belichick and the young genius as Sean McVay has been heralded, and I think it is likely to be the most important for the Rams if they hope to win. I’ll come back to that later, but for now I will just say that I am intrigued to see what McVay and his staff have cooked up in terms of things that run counter to the Rams’ usual offensive tendencies that will be tried in an effort to catch Belichick out.

When the Patriots have the ball things will be just as interesting, and the contest between Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady going against Wade Philips is hardly less intriguing what I’ve just written about. Particularly as Philips has already masterminded a winning defence against Brady and the Patriots on the way to a Super Bowl win with the Broncos. In Aaron Donald the Rams’ have a pass rusher every bit as effective as the Broncos’ Von Miller and they can also line up Ndamukong Suh next to him. The conventional wisdom is to beat Tom Brady you need to be able to get pressure with four pass rushers and with these two supremely talented tackles and Dante Fowler the Rams stand some chance of doing this. The difference between this defence and the one the Philips and the Broncos used to beat the Patriots is the secondary is not as talented and in a game such as against the Saints what the Rams have are explosive moments rather than consistent play. Yes both Suh and Donald has outstanding moments, but the Saints were able to get them on their heels and I have feeling that the recent tactics of the Patriots could well negate the Rams’ defence.

The Patriots, as has often been their want have recently reinvented themselves as running football team using 21 personnel and fullback James Devlin as both a lead blocker and pass catcher. In addition, in the last few weeks Rob Gronkowski has looked really effective as a blocking tight-end who has caught some passes and whilst he’s looked for from his league conquering best, in the last few games he has looked closer to it. The form of Julian Edelman in the playoffs has also been a big boost to the Patriots whilst their running backs committee was able to generate one-hundred and seventy-six yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs. This may not be the high flying iteration of the Patriots’ offence that has so dominated previous seasons, but they have found a way to control the clock and win games comfortably having earned yet another playoff bye.

The advantage this gives the Patriots is that if they can grind out the game against a defence that was twenty-eight in the league against the run during the regular season then they can dominate time of possession and win a close game.

I am really excited by this year’s Super Bowl, which I think should be tactically fascinating but who do I think is going to win?

This has been a year where your defence only needed to be so good given the power of offence, but I feel like the Patriots have a slight edge in match-ups and I have more faith in Belichick and staff’s ability to maximise their team’s performance in the unusual circumstances of the Super Bow given they have been there nine times in eighteen and this is their third in a row. The Rams absolutely can win this game, and I would love for former Bengals stalwart starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth to get a Super Bowl win but whilst my heart wants Rams for this reason, my head says that in a close game the Patriots will edge out winners with their better balance.

Whatevver happens, I think I will have some great coaching tape to dig into next week.

AAF: LA Rams’ Defence

03 Sunday Feb 2019

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film, Gee's Thoughts

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So for my final amateur adventures in film post I took a look at the LA Rams defence playing against the New Orleans Saints’ offence.

This was an interesting match-up as the Saints’ offence ranked fourth in league by DVOA and the Rams’ defence ranked nineteenth.

For most of this game the Rams did not play in a base 3-4 four defence, predominantly playing a 3-3 nickel or 3-2 dime defence. The hybrid defensive line consisted of three defensive linemen and Dante Fowler moving to either side of the line as a stand-up pass rusher. This highlighted how important the trade for him mid-season was, and against the Saints the Rams’ defence held them to under three hundred yards. However, whilst the Saints were only able to run for forty-eight yards, there were stretches where they were able to move the ball freely and Drew Brees threw for two-hundred and forty-nine yards and two touchdowns.

The Rams rush defence was not great this season, but they managed to bottle up the Saints pair of runners in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, but this was partly due to moments of brilliant from Suh and Donald rather than consistent run fits, although that did happen on some snaps. Still, it was very impressive to see Suh pushing back a centre of the quality of Max Unger as happened on a couple of plays.

However, for a lot of the game I was more impressed with the design of the Saints offence, with combinations of routes creating natural picks between defenders and several times using motion to get players open in the passing game. In the much talked about play where Nickell Robey-Coleman committed uncalled pass interference and a helmet to helmet hit, he was behind the Saints’ motion from before the ball was snapped so you can see why he desperately flew across the field and committed the interference to stop a touchdown. The problem for him this week will be that he admitted it and so the refs will be likely watching him closely in the Super Bowl and so despite him having some impressive pass breakups in this game, I wonder if he could struggle in a match-up against Julian Edelman in the slot.

The Rams secondary has some impressive names at corner, but Marcus Peters in known to gamble for the big play and Aqib Talib is ten days away from his thirty-third birthday. Too often the Saints were able to move the ball with short plays or scheme someone open, even if Michael Thomas was kept to a modest thirty-six yards, but Ted Ginn continued to prove his used in stretching the defence, whilst Alvin Kamara picked up ninety-six yards through the air as various players tried to follow him round the formation and often failed.

Overall there are a lot of big names in the Rams’ defensive unit, but they are really designed to play with a lead and counter a team passing the ball to catch up. For most of the year this was absolutely fine, but we shall have to see how it fairs this week in the Super Bowl. What price they will pay going forward given the number of high-price free-agents that comprise their star players, but the new acquisitions for this season were meant to get the Rams to the Super Bowl, so as far as the Rams are concerned the gamble was probably worth it.