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The Playoff Fallen

20 Saturday Jan 2018

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So I need to catch up with the teams who have departed the playoffs so having started this post last week, here’s my now finished run through the playoff fallen starting with the losing wild card teams.

The first team to fall were the Kansas City Chiefs who managed to lose a game to the Tennessee Titans that they were leading 21-3 at half time. The Chiefs have been up and down this season with a significant mid-season lull that gave way to a four game win streak coming into their playoff game against the Titans. However, a number of factors combined for the Chiefs to lose this Wildcard game and demonstrated one of the warts that has affected them all year. The defence of the Chiefs has had problems ever since safety Eric Berry ruptured his Achilies, but their overall ranking of thirtieth by DVOA and dead last against the run showed up in this game when the Chiefs failed to stop the Titans’ second half come back and Derrick Henry finishing the game with one hundred and fifty-six rushing yards. The Chief offence also came to a sputtering stop once Travis Kelce left the game with a concussion meaning the Titans could focus on stopping the speedy Chiefs receivers with two deep safeties. The Chiefs further played into this by only giving Kareem Hunt elven carries in the entire game and running Alex Smith at inopportune moments. The Cheifs’ recent playoff record is also clearly on their usually very loud crowd’s mind as it got quieter the better the Titans did, although I defy any fan to be confident when the opposing quarterback throws a touchdown pass to himself.

This could well be Alex Smith’s final game for the Chiefs given his 1-4 playoff record in the five season that he and head coach Andy Reid have been with the franchise and with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings. I don’t believe this loss can really be blamed on Smith and they could stick with him as they develop a still raw Mahomes but patience does seem to be wearing thin for a section of their fans and the narrative seems to be that Smith will leave in the offseason. Their current offensive co-ordinator Matt Nagy has already left to be the new head coach of the Chicago Bears and with Smith’s current playoff record perhaps it is time to change with a new coordinator coming in. The defence will also need an overhaul given the age of a number of players and their reliance on a twenty-nine year old safety who will be recovering from an Achilles injury next season. In recent years the Chiefs have been competitive but their approach last offseason seemed to be split between short term and long term agendas and I am curious to see how they approach this one.

The second team to lose on wild car weekend were the LA Rams whose remarkable turnaround season couldn’t overcome the playoff experience of the Atlanta Falcons whose defence was able to stifle the Rams offence. This was mainly due to excellent tackling against the short routes so although Todd Gurley did get over one hundred yards on the ground, he was not able to dominated in the way he has for much of the season. As frustrating as this loss was, part of the problem were repeated special teams miscues by Pharoh Cooper early in the game, which was not a reflection of his Pro Bowl special teams play through the year. Still, this was a season of marked improvement for the Rams with plenty of young players to grow with their coach and you would expect them to be competitive next season but it has to be hard for Andrew Whitworth to lose another wild card playoff game.

The Buffalo Bills scraped into the playoffs on the back of a final drive fourth down touchdown pass from the Bengals’ Andy Dalton but they couldn’t overcome the Jaguars in their first playoff game in eighteen years. The Bills defence managed to contain the Jaguars offence by committing to stopping the run and daring Blake Bortles to beat them in his first playoff game. This plan could have worked if Tyrod Taylor didn’t have nearly as bad a game as Bortles and LeSean McCoy was fully healthy, but the offence couldn’t do enough and the game was lost 10-3. This was still a turnaround for the Bills and first year head coach Sean McDermott has things to work on but offensive co-ordinator Rick Dennison paid the price and the Bills will be one of several teams looking for a quarterback this offseason. The Bills could continue their improvement, but they will be limited until they get a quarterback and offence in place that everyone in the franchise believes in.

The final wild card game saw the Carolina Panthers lose to the New Orleans Saints for the third time this year. The Panthers have been very solid on defence all year, but their offence has been very up and down. A slow start was not that surprising given that Cam Newton was coming off shoulder surgery in the offseason and the Panthers were trying a new approach, but this never really took and the offence didn’t really start to work until Newton began to run more. This made the play of Newton very important for how the offence went, which is not that unusual for a quarterback but Newton’s size ability to run, whilst being a dangerous weapon, has to make up for his volatility in the passing game. When Newton is on he is as dangerous a quarterback as there is in the league, but with injuries at receiver (the Panthers also traded away Kelvin Benjamin during the season) and Newton’s favourite target tight end Greg Olsen battling with a foot injury that was clearly still affecting him, he was not able to beat the Saints despite playing well. Going into the offseason the Panthers have replaced offensive co-ordinator Mike Shula with Norv Turner so a new offence will be installed in the summer and it will be fascinating to see how these changes work and how Newton takes to although at least he will be able to practise this offseason.

Moving on to last week’s games and the first team to fall were the Atlanta Falcons who couldn’t match their performance against the Rams when they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in a tight competitive game. The Falcons were only able to score ten points on the league’s fifth ranked defence by DVOA but whilst the offensive rankings of the Falcons don’t look bad (tenth in passing and sixteenth rushing by DVOA) it does feel like this unit underachieved given the calibre of players available. Yes some regression from last year’s stellar performance was to be expected but it has been a difficult year for Steve Sarkisian in taking over from Kyle Shanahan and whilst he is coming back next season, there will be pressure to improve or the discontent could cause real problems. This could be true for the whole staff given the painful playoff exit and the Super Bowl last year given that both games were winnable. Still, if the offence can be brought round and the defence continues its rise the Falcons could be very formidable next season.

The Tennessee Titans had done well to win their first game against the Chiefs, but there are limits and it was always going to be a tough job to go into Gillette stadium and beat the New England Patriots. To their credit, the Titans kept it competitive for a quarter and took a 7-0 lead before the Patriots shook off the rust from their bye week and ran out easy 35-14 winners. The Titans were pretty average in all three phases of the game this season and actually ranked three places lower by overall DVOA at eighteenth compared to last season. Despite getting a playoff win head coach Mike Mularkey was unable to come to an agreement with the Titans’ front office and so they will be looking for someone new to develop Marcus Mariota. The team definitely improved under Mularkey with a pair of winning seasons but the play of their young quarterback does not look to have progressed as you would hope and I have to think they are looking for a new offensive philosophy and someone who can make one of the most dynamic quarterback in recent college history look like that in the pro game. Given the success that the Chiefs and others have had in incorporating elements from the college game into their offence this does seem achievable, but it all depends on who takes over. Still, at least the Titans have progressed and they are no longer a team devoid of talent and identity, but there are some very big decisions to be made this offseason.

The NFL had great pair of games on Sunday and the opener saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars 45-42 and crash out the playoffs at home. The Steelers had got a first round bye with a 13-3 record and finished the regular season ranked inside the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA. However, there were two problems that sank them in this game. I am reluctant to talk about motivation and whether the players were looking past the Jaguars to a conference championship game at the Patriots, a matchup that many had expected for a lot of the season, but what I can say is that the Steelers started slow. The Jaguars got out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, and whilst the Steelers were able to get back into the game, they were never able to get closer than seven points until the very last second of the game with a meaningless touchdown that came too late. The Steelers offence did manage to put up forty-two points against one of the best defences in the league but it was not easy and there had to be a lot of impressive catches and fourth down conversions to get them. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defence never looked the same one Ryan Shazier was lost to the spinal contusion he picked up in the Steelers’ brutal game against the Bengals in week thirteen. The talk has mostly been about fourth down conversions and the slow start, but the Steelers defence let a league average offence with Blake Bortles as their quarterback put up forty-five points on them and that has to hurt.

Some changes are already taking place. There appears to have been discord between offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger but Haley’s contract has expired and he is not being renewed. It looks like quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner will replace him and Roethlisberger looks to be a lot more committed to coming back next season than he was last offseason with all his talk of retirement. Still, given that Shazier had to have spine stabilisation surgery and as far as we know hasn’t walked yet, let alone be anywhere near playing football again (if that is even a possibility), the Steelers will need to address the defence again this offseason but it feels like they should be able to take another deep run next season.

If the first game on Sunday saw an upset against a veteran quarterback, the second saw a miraculous play knock out the New Orleans Saints and their future hall of fame quarterback. The Saints finally managed to assemble a defence that could do enough to get Drew Brees into the playoffs again, ably helped by the league’s best rushing attack by DVOA. Two all NFL rookies helped with this turn around and having seen off the Panthers last week, it looked like the Saints were going to beat the second seeded Minnesota Vikings when they found themselves on fourth down with seconds to go, no timeouts, and were one point behind the Saints. However, another one of the Saints’ rookies, safety Marcus Williams who already had an interception in this game made a horrible play as Stefon Diggs caught a ball in front of him. All Williams had to do was stop Diggs from getting out of bounds and hold him up so Diggs could be tackled in bounds, but he came flying past Diggs without touching him allowing Diggs to turn and suddenly there was no one between him and the end zone. The Vikings fans fortunes finally changed as the miraculous play went their way and the Saints promising season came to a shuddering halt.

That play will haunt Williams all offseason, whilst the franchise will be worrying about re-signing Drew Brees who is an unrestricted free agent. However, given the way this year’s team played, and the potential for their rookie players to develop further next year then it is hard not to see Brees back playing for the Saints and them being very competitive next season. After a number of years where they were asking Brees to do too much, they now look setup to compete as long as Brees is willing and able to play like he did this year. We should make the most of being able to watch him whilst we still can.

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Wildcard Saturday

06 Saturday Jan 2018

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Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 10-6)

The first game of the weekend pits the stumbling Titans against the resurgent Chiefs.

The Chiefs started the season strongly, winning five straight games before losing their way in the middle of the season but having won their last four games they are looking something more like the team that started the season. Ever since Andy Reid handed play calling duties back to his co-ordinator Matt Nagy things have gone better for the Chiefs offence, which finished the season ranked fourth in the NFL by DVOA. However, the defence has continued to struggle, ranked thirtieth overall by DVOA and last is in the league against the run.

The Titans’ season never quite took off this season, but they kept grinding out enough results to make the playoffs. They are not the worst ranked team in the playoffs by DVOA but their offence has struggled and Marcus Mariota has not really looked right all year despite the team investing in receiving options in the offseason. It will not help an offence that was at least top ten in running the ball to be missing running back DeMarco Murray who has been ruled out through injury. The Titans will need to run the ball effectively against the Chiefs’ poor run defence to control the clock if they are to win this game and have lost half of their two pronged back field.

There is a template for the Titans to win this game, but on the road in the famously loud Arrowhead stadium I find it hard to see them running the ball well enough and containing the explosive Chiefs offence enough to win. They might keep it close, this is the playoffs after all, but in the end I think the Chiefs run out winners in this one.

 

Atlanta Falcon (10-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

In one of the games of the weekend the Rams who changed their fortunes so drastically in a year welcomes a Falcons team who are still trying to get over last season.

The Rams made a statement against the Indianapolis Colts in the opening game of the season and have pretty much lived up to it for the rest of the year. In fact the only true bad loss of the year was against Washington in week two. Certainly by the time they faced the Seahawks for a second time they were up for the challenge and got the biggest win for a road team in Seattle in a very long time. There has been a lot of praise for thirty-one year old rookie head coach Sean McVay who has turned round a moribund offence whilst being brave enough to hire Wade Philips and let him do his thing despite Philips being over twice McVay’s age. The offence built around Todd Gurely, who ran for thirteen hundred yards and caught nearly eight hundred yards of passing, has made Jared Goff a competent quarterback and they have put up big scores against the teams they should whilst competing well against better competition. The defence has also played well and is also top ten by DVOA plus boasts in Aaron Donald, a terrifying interior pass rusher who should be defensive player of the year. They may lack playoff experience but they are a formidable proposition.

The Atlanta Falcons were always going to find the year after the lost such a big lead in the Super Bowl difficult, but with Kyle Shanahan leaving to become head coach of the 49ers the offence has stumbled all year. They have more than enough talent and in Julio Jones one of the very best receivers in the league but whilst some regression to the mean after last year’s stellar season was to be expected, this team is only just in the top ten of offences by DVOA and that doesn’t seem good enough. More worrying for them is that starting guard Andy Levitre tried to go in the last game of the season and only managed five plays. Facing Aaron Donald is not the time to have a backup playing one of your interior offensive line spots. Even more worrying for the Falcons is that their defence is a surprising twenty-second by DVOA and whilst I knew that Vic Beasly wasn’t playing with the form he had last season where he was one of the leading sack getters, I thought this fast young defence was better than their DVOA ranking. They also play the same scheme as the Seahawks who the Rams have played twice this year and so it could be a long day against a very good offence.

This looks to be a really good game, and I’m thoroughly looking forward to it, but I have to think that the Rams will win out in the end. That said, some small part of me still thinks that the Falcons of last season might re-appear, but it would be a surprising if the Rams didn’t win..

AAF: The LA Rams Offence and Jared Goff

03 Sunday Dec 2017

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So this week I got a chance to take a look at the LA Rams offence and the turnaround of Jared Goff as they took on the New Orleans Saints..

So the first think I took away was that Jared Goff looks like a professional quarterback, which given how bad things were last season is not something to be sniffed at. There was interesting footage that came out in the week of the Rams lining up early in the play clock so that Sean McVay could call any audibles before the QB headset could cut out at 15 seconds left on the play clock. I’m sure that in future defences will start switching looks later in the play clock so this will be something to monitor.

However, in this game, it wasn’t so much the play of Goff that stood out as the construction of the offence. The Rams remained committed to the run, even if they did only manage eighty-eight yards from twenty-five carries. However, this was not a slavish insistence on running on first down out of an I formation, in fact most of the time the Rams were in 11 personnel, but was the commitment to the run to establish the basis of their numerous run fakes. They not only used traditional play action, but would motion Tavon Austin across the formation or line him up as the running back with 01 personnel on the ball. Even if these plays did not always succeed, the defence has to account for them and more than once after two run fakes held a safety long enough for a receiver to get behind the play.

Sean McVay also schemed a couple of quick backwards passes to receivers who once tossed the ball for Tevon Austin to run on and on another play, Cooper Kupp threw a horrible forward pass. Still if misdirection ruled the day, they did keep feeding the ball to Todd Gurley in space so that apart from his seventy-four yards on the ground, Gurley picked up fifty-four yards through the air.

The Rams did not have things all their own way. If Goff was unlucky when a ball he threw behind Sammy Watkins bounced off his trailing hand and straight into the arms of a trailing PJ Williams, Goff had no chance of escaping Cameron Jordan when he faked inside right tackle Rob Havenstein and the burst straight past him on the outside to get a quick sack. For Cameron’s first sack I would suggest that Goff shared some of the blame due to holding on the ball whilst Cameron drove Andrew Whitworth up field and then powered inside him to get the sack. There is only so long even the best of tackles can hold up one on one in pass protection.

Still, for the most part the Rams moved the ball well and even whey they didn’t they still didn’t turn the ball over. I am impressed with the turnaround Sean McVay has already produced in LA and will be fascinated to follow the development of Goff as surely after this season’s success McVay and Goff will have a number of years to develop this offence.

2017 Pre-Season: The Starters Emerge

28 Monday Aug 2017

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The starters began to emerge last week as they played more than a handful of snaps in the second pre-season games and we saw this covered in the third Hard Knocks episode.

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the stars of Hard Knocks stayed the same, and I continued to be impressed by them. However, we did get another lesson in the harsh realities of the NFL. The undrafted rookie Maruice Fleming was shown arriving early and running extra drills, telling us that he had asked Jameis Winston what time he got up and deciding to do the same. It had not gone unnoticed by the coaching staff either, but sadly he hurt his knee and whilst he gutted out the game, which was a hard thing to watch, he was too injured to carry on and was cut. Fleming will have impressed with his toughness, but he’s now done for training camp and let’s hope the injury is not too bad so he can have another chance.

The other thing that grabbed my attention in episode three is the theme of Winston’s development. In earlier episodes we had seen Jameis talking to his head coach about risk versus reward, and having played well with his offence looking good, he then heaved the ball up in the air as he was sacked and it was picked off in the end zone. You can understand Dirk Koetter’s frustration and the resulting dressing down he gave his quarterback, but Winston already knew his mistake and the important thing for Winston going forward will be if he can temper his risk taking without losing what makes him special.

Still in their second pre-season game the Buccaneers’ defence smothered the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars offence in the first half and then held out for a narrow win. They would want the offence to be running more smoothly, and having had one field goal blocked and another miss, they will be hoping that things settle down for Nick Folk.

Moving away from the Buccaneers, the Cincinnati Bengals hosted the Kansas City Chiefs and I would definitely say I am nervous given that the Bengals lost heavily. It is not time to panic yet, but the offensive failed to score any touchdowns despite moving the ball, and only time will tell if game planning will help with efficiency as Andy Dalton suggested it might. There were also signs that left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi could still struggle, although there were only snaps he had problems rather than constant issues.

The good news on defence is that the pass rush continues to look good, but there were times where the middle of the defence looked soft against both run and pass. There is a lot of youth in the front seven of the defence at the moment, and losing safety Shawn Williams to a dislocated elbow will not help this area either. Still given the problems covering tight ends last season, the Bengals will be hoping things come together soon.

Across the country in LA, fans of the Rams got their first hint of what a difference it will make to have an offensive minded head coach in charge. It is way too early to pronounce on Jared Goff, but the offence definitely looked like it could do something this year. The Rams managed to move the ball as they eked out a win, and although Todd Gurley did not look great, Goff looked to be developing some chemistry with Cooper Kupp and completed passes as players were schemed open.

The defence continues to look solid, and the hope is that the Rams can show development and find out what they have in their young quarterback. This might not sound like amazing progress, but it is the start of building a team to do more than hover round eight wins. I am curious to see how things unfold for Sean McVay over the coming season and how the Rams develop in the coming years.

I had better get on with watching the week three games as we are rapidly approaching the start of a new season.

Football is coming.

Rams, Broncos, and Special Preseason Week 3 Guests the Miami Dolphins

28 Sunday Aug 2016

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We are twelve days away from the start of the 2016 season, and the preseason week three games where the starters will see the most game time have already started. I will take you through the remaining week two games I have watched, as well as the visit of the Atlanta Falcons to Dan’s Miami Dolphins taking in my quarterback curse and general thoughts.

There is always a ton of news at this time of year, each team still has ninety players on its roster until the Tuesday deadline for cuts down to seventy-five. There are injuries, worries about the team, and a lot of fan angst as the positivity of the offseason hits the stark reality of playing games in the NFL. Already the Buffalo Bills are struggling with injury to numerous players as Rex Ryan’s team seem to beset by difficulty as they approach the season.

Meanwhile, Tony Romo has a fractured vertebrae in his back, meaning that Cowboys fans will be getting an extend look at whether Dak Prescott can be a starter in the NFL as Romo is not expected back until mid-season. Prescott’s play so far would give some confidence, but it is always best to treat play in the preseason with a healthy amount of scepticism. You will hear people talk about vanilla plans in preseason, but that’s overstating things somewhat. However, coaches have teams work on what they want to work on, so blitz heavy teams will blitz as they will be getting ready for the season. What is not happening, is the detailed team specific game planning that goes into every regular season game, and so whilst flashing in preseason is definitely an encouraging sign, the test, and particularly for quarterbacks, is whether you can adjust and counter what your opposition put in place to specifically stop you. Any player that demonstrates a weakness in their game can expect to see a heavy dose of whatever counters or exposes it until said player can show that they have cleared it up.

So on to the games as I get myself into season shape with game watching, and hopefully step up the number of articles next week.

The LA Rams managed to get a second win hosting the Kansas City Chiefs despite going in down at half time again. In fact, things got off to a bad start for them as they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive of the game for a second game in a row. For those watching Hard Knocks, you will have seen Alec Ogletree’s frustration  as well as him fighting to get the first team defence lined up correctly. That said, the Rams had a good response with Case Keenum leading the Rams’ offence straight back up the field to score a touchdown, although the plaudits ought to go to Todd Gurley who ran the ball effectively and scored the equalising touchdown. The coaches had seen enough and pulled Gurley from the game before he could get hurt.

The Rams defence then stiffened to get the ball immediately on a three and out, giving the offence the ball. The Rams moved the ball well again, with Case Keenum passing to Pharoh Cooper for a go ahead touchdown and so Keenum was finished for the game.

The big question for Rams quarterback Jared Goff is when will he be ready, but whilst the coaching staff are seeing progress, they also are stating that you can see rookie mistakes, and given that on his first two plays Goff threw an incomplete pass, then was sacked and fumbled the ball, you can see what they mean. That said, he did finish the game completing eight of his twelve attempts for eighty-two yards and threw his first touchdown as a professional to running back Malcolm Brown.

We will have to see how this team fare on the road, and how much momentum the Rams can carry into the regular season, but if nothing else, their attendance has been huge so far and they will want to make the most of the interest by winning games if they are to make the transition to LA successful.

Following a week one win, the Broncos lost their second game of preseason as they welcomed the San Francisco 49ers to Denver.

It feels like there is only one question hanging over the Broncos this offseason, despite the loss of some players on defence, and all the usual roster skirmishes, the big question for this team is who is going to start at quarterback.

For the second week in a row, I sat watching a Broncos starting quarterback thinking that this might work out and they threw an interception. This week it was Trevor Siemian that I managed to retroactively curse, but it is a big step that he got the start and looks to be making a strong case to be the opening night starter. Certainly Mark Sanchez didn’t help his cause by losing two fumbles. In fact, it may even be possible that he is being pressurised by rookie project Paxton Lynch who threw two touchdowns and an interception, although he does still look like a rookie and held onto the ball a bit too long for my liking at times. There was even some talk on commentary about giving Lynch the start next week to see if has the goods, but I would suggest it is a little early for such a move, yet I do feel that Trevor Siemian could well be the starter come week one.

The Broncos starting defence looks good, and even if the team did lose this game, I do think the Broncos are going to have another strong based on another good year on defence, and a run game that looks better than last year with CJ Anderson looking in good shape already and strong players behind him that could make for a good rotation to support an inexperienced quarterback.

The Broncos played the Rams last night, and I look forward to seeing how they went over the next couple of days. As a result of this fixture I had an extra game that I could watch, and Dan asked me to take a look at the Dolphins, who conveniently hosted the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night.

I still have questions about the way the Miami Dolphins have approached their offseason, and in particular how they are building their offensive line given that of the three interior linemen that started the game, all of them are inexperienced and/or changing permission. However, new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase is a quality offensive coordinator who got the Dolphins job off the back of good work with Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning.

The Dolphins started the game playing no huddle offense, and did look to be making good use of Ryan Tannehill skills, moving him with roll outs, running the ball, and passing. However, he again fell to the, I think this going to be good Gee curse, and as soon as I thought how good he looked, Tannehill immediately threw an interception.

However, the Dolphins ran out pretty convincing winners in this game, thanks to an ability to move the ball and a defence that restricted the Falcons all game and didn’t allow a touchdown.

There are questions at running back with Jay Ajayi battling health problems, Arian Foster looking good but at age thirty and a recent history of injuries you probably can’t rely on him all season. I do however like Damien Williams who has caught my eye before, but who has never broken out, yet in this game he had a couple of nice runs and scored a touchdown.

My worry for the Dolphins is the depth, and whilst I like what I saw, the defence still seems to be thin past the starters, and I’m not sure about the secondary barring Reshad Jones who is a really good safety.

I did like the look of second year defensive end Julius Warmsley who got a sack and showed good penetration on a couple of other plays, but whether this will be enough to get him off the practice squad and onto the roster only time will tell. Fellow second year end Cleyon Leign also got a quarterback hit from a lovely spin move playing inside at tackle in the fourth quarter. However, even if the line play is better this season for the defence, the back seven is where the questions are and without access coaching tape in preseason, it is hard to know for sure how they will fare given how much you can see them play. Certainly, whilst unable to score touchdowns, Falcons backup Matt Schaub looked pretty good completing ten of eleven passes against the backup secondary.

Overall, I expect the Dolphins to be better than last season as they will have a more coherent plan on offence, after the muddle that was last year’s experience with two head coaches, but I think they will continue to be hampered by how the roster is constructed. I do wish them well if only to cheer Dan up next season, I still remember how much it hurts for your team to miss the playoffs for a number of year even if the Bengals have had a better run of it recently.

Time is running out for players to make the roster, and with the regular season just around the corner, it’s nearly time for the games that count, although you try telling a player who is fighting to get on a roster that the remaining preseason games are meaningless.

The season is nearly here, and football already is.

Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2015

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It was a slightly odd Thursday night game given that if you were to look at the statistics on their own without the score, you would think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually won the game, but in the end the Rams ran out convincing winners in what could be their last game in St Louis.

The Rams have now won two games straight and part of that turn around seems to be the change in offensive coordinator. Whilst the Buccaneers did an effective job of bottling up Todd Gurley, the Rams came with game plan that made the most of Tavon Austin’s ability with the ball in his hands, and an efficient passing game that gained two hundred and thirty-four yards from fourteen receptions out of seventeen attempts. I am not going to say that Case Keenum is an amazing quarterback, but this did look like a functional NFL offence, which it has not done for a lot of the season, and I will be as curious to see what this team does in the offseason with the construction of the roster as where the franchise will actually play its games.

The Buccaneers defence played well in the run game in terms of restricting Todd Gurley, which is not a surprise given that they were ranked fifth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game. However, they were not that sure in their tackling, and had problems dealing with the shifty Austin. No one really stood out, although Gerard McCoy flashed, but he has not hit the lofty heights that we have come to expect given his performance in previous seasons. They have however, begun to look like they can make Lovie Smith’s Tampa Two defence effective, which seemed to be a real question earlier this season and they will be hoping to build on that next year.

The Buccaneers offence in contrast, had some good performances, but the yardage gained hides the fact that they got very little going in the first half, gave the ball away twice and could have lost the ball again if they had not recovered one of their fumbles. It was odd in that to start the game they tried to rely on their run game as they have much for the season, but whilst Doug Martin ran the ball effectively, Jameis Winston kept missing his receivers with throws that were too high. In fact Winston had this problem crop up through much of the game, but it was particularly prevalent in the early part of the game and led to difficulties maintaining drives. In the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter the Buccaneers were able to get things going, and Winston was able to make some big plays with his arm, particularly to receiver Mike Evans who had an impressing one hundred and fifty-seven yard game from nine receptions, although he was targeted seventeen times. The one interception Winston did have was a bad read as he failed to take account of a dropping corner, but he has been much better in his first season than many feared and if they can get him some more options and improve his offensive line then the Buccaneers definitely have a quarterback for the foreseeable future.

There is no doubting the talent on the Rams defence, but it has rarely been able to get everyone playing well at the same time. The particularly impressive player for them in this game was Aaron Donald, who may not have had any sacks, but did get two tackles for a loss as well as three quarterback hits whilst causing all kinds of problems for the Buccaneers offensive line. It should not be possible for a defensive tackle as large as Donald to move as quickly as he does, but he also possesses the strength to shed blockers to make tackles in the run game, and in his second year is making a case to be included in the conversation with the other defensive greats.

In the end the Rams ran out comfortable winners in this one, but I am not sure it will be enough to save Jeff Fisher his job, whilst the improvement the Buccaneers have made this season should mean that Lovie Smith gets another year to continue the rebuilding job in Tamp Bay

I want to write a little about the coaching tape I watched this week before moving onto our picks for week fifteen. I was looking at the way that Cardinals use safeties Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu, which is pretty much how I outlined last week, but it is still impressive to see on tape.

For Bucannon, although listed as a safety he really does play as one of their linebackers, using his movement skills to avoid blocks and make plays. Not only did he force a fumble and recover it, but he was able to tackle Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and was second in tackles only to Tyrann Mathieu.

If Bucannon is exceptional because of the position he is playing given his size, then Tyrann Mathieu demonstrates an amazing flexibility in the way he is used around the Cardinals defence. He basically lines up as either a safety or slot corner, and is usually around the line of scrimmage, but from there he can exploit his athleticism either rushing towards the play, or drop into coverage. In the Cardinals blitz heavy scheme he frequently rushes from the slot corner position or from the line, and was able to get pressure on the QB multiple times. The pass play I mentioned in last week’s write up where Mathieu batted down a ball behind the line of scrimmage was actually coming off such a slot corner blitz, and given that Teddy Bridgewater was looking left as the ball was snapped, I would guess hat Mathieu either keyed off that or adjusted his blitz angle in case the ball came out early, and it was this that allowed him get a hand to the ball.

Overall what I appreciated about the Cardinals defensive scheme was that they have collected a number of good athletes and are putting them in a position to make the most of their physical gifts whilst giving themselves flexibility in an era where offences are becoming increasingly multiple and aggressive in the pass game. I don’t know if there are going to be other teams that copy them, but the principle of having that much coverage ability combined with aggressive pressure is one we may well see copied, if perhaps with different types of personnel.

Finally we go on to the rest of our week fifteen picks, with Dan and I both going 1-1 so far.

Falcons @ Jagaurs (-3.5)

The points scare me because despite the improvement of the Jaguars this season, they are still not reliable week to week, but they are coming off a win where they scored fifty points whilst the Falcons are on a horrendous run of losses. I don’t see the Falcons ending that run on the road in Jacksonville this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Bills @ Washington (+0.5)

It feels like I have been wrong about this Washington season all year, but with the Bills falling from playoff contention thanks to last week’s loss and their continued ill discipline which seems to be a feature of Rex Ryan’s teams, I think that Washington will win this game as they try to stay in the NFC East race. The worry is that Washington has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but they have been better at home and with something to play for I will take the half point that doesn’t really mean anything.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Chicago Bears have been better than most thought they would be this season, but the Vikings put up a very credible performance against a very good Cardinals team in Arizona and will hopefully be healthier after the extra rest. Their defence has been good all year and was solid last week despite missing some of its best players, and they will want to get their season back on track in this divisional game and I think they will. They might not cover the points, but I think the Vikings are the better team so that’s the way I am going.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Titans @ Patriots (-14.5)

The points make me pause, but the Titans are on the road and do not have the players around rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota to compete with the Patriots given the return of Rob Gronkowski and what he means to their offence. The Titans only scored one touchdown against the Jets last week, and that was a trick play, so I don’t see them doing much in their second game on the road in a row, so whilst I should pick the Titans because of the points, I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The AFC South is in such a state that two teams with 6-7 records are playing for the division lead, with both of them starting backup quarterbacks. There is very little to hang your hat on in this game, but the Texans at least have JJ Watt and a defence that has been coming on in the second half of the season even if they did struggle against the Patriots last week, so that’s what I will put my trust in for this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chiefs @ Ravens (+7.5)

The Chiefs are on one of the hottest streaks in the NFL at the moment, which is a testament to the job head coach Andy Reid did in keeping this team together through their 1-5 start that easily could have wrecked their season. The Ravens have been specialising in close games for much of the season, even if they had been losing most of them, but the injuries finally passed a point where they could compete and lost badly last week. I think that the Chiefs offence will be better this week for not playing in horrendous conditions, and will cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Panthers @ Giants (+5.5)

This game has one of the matchups of the year with Panther’s corner Josh Norman likely going up against Odell Beckham. There is a lot of buzz about how the Giants love playing these kinds of games and upsetting good teams, but this Giants team is not like the one that beat the Patriots in two Super Bowls. Those teams may have come good at the end of the year, but they also had a fearsome pass rush and more to hang their hat on than Eli Manning getting hot. Yes the Manning to Beckham connection is effective, but this week they go up against one of the best defences in the league, and whilst the injuries the Panthers suffered last week worry me, I don’t see the Giants really being able to compete. This probably means the Giants will win as it’s hard to predict that the Panthers really will go undefeated, but I’m not prepared to pick against them this week despite needing them to win by six points on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Browns @ Seahawks (-14.5)

I feel like I am picking a lot of sides giving away a lot of points this week, and they surely can’t all come in, but despite the Browns getting a win last week, I don’t see them repeating the trick as they travel from Cleveland to Seattle. The Seahawks defence is still very good, and with their offence now finding an effective passing game I’m not even worried about the loss of rookie running back Thomas Rawls in this one. I’m backing the Seahawks to run out convincing winners at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Raiders (+3.5)

I think I am changing my mind on this one in that on the podcast I said I was not convinced by the Packers, having had false dawns before this season in terms of things turning consistently round on offence, and the Raiders have played well for large parts of the season even if they do make young team mistakes. However, with Mike McCarthy taking back play calling duties last week, and a faith that they will not allow Khalil Mack to get five sacks like the Broncos did last week, I think the Packers may well cover this one even if the half point does make me nervous.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ 49ers (+4.5)

The 49ers defence seems to play better at home that than they do on the road, but they just lost to the Cleveland Brown and their rush defence is near the bottom of the league. I know what Hue Jackson is saying about the game plan this week, and to some extent I believe him as I didn’t think it was a bad display by AJ McCarron against the Steelers last week, but a young quarterback’s best friend is the run game, which fits the tactical situation of this game and so I think the Bengals will run on the 49ers a lot. It may well be a close game, but I am choosing to take a page out of Dan’s giant book of optimism and back my team to cover this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

This line is tricky for me in that whilst the Broncos offence stuttered last week, they still have a really good defence. The Steelers have a great set of receivers, and this should be a really good game, but the Broncos could well slow the Steelers down. I think they can for a while, but this Steelers team are just so good at the moment, and whilst I think I would pick differently if this game was in Denver, I am backing the Steelers in Pittsburgh to win and maintain the pressure on the Bengals because that’s what happens in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dolphins @ Chargers (-1.5)

There have been comments coming out of the Chargers locker room that they are aware this could be the team’s last game in San Diego and they are desperate for a win. I think the Dolphins might be close to being a good team than some would have you believe, but they have not been good this season. However, I am not sure the Chargers should be favourites against many given how their season has been, and there has been very little home field advantage for them this season so I will join Dan back on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Cardinals @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Cardinals continue to get wins with a good defence and explosive offence, whilst the Eagles have been uneven all season and I simply don’t trust them. So even thought the Cardinals are on the road in Philadelphia, I am backing them to cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Lions @ Saints (-2.5)

The Lions lost for a second week in the row, and it seems that being eliminated from the playoffs has stifled their little recovery. They are still playing better than they were, but then again so are the Saints. Their defence was not as bad last week as it has been all season, and they ran out convincing winners against the Buccaneers. This leaves me in something of a quandary, particularly as the Buccaneers were pretty convincingly beaten by the Rams on Thursday, but I am going for the team with the better record who are playing at home whilst keeping my fingers crossed.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints