Tag Archives: Drew Brees

Plays, Penalties, and Injuries

26 Wednesday Sep 2018

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18-09-26 Josh Allen TD

Image Credit: wyosports.net

So Wednesday marks the transition from one NFL week to the next as I move from catching up on games and highlights, evaluating the news to preparing to make picks, even if I won’t start the coaching tape for Week three until tomorrow, but more of that later.

I’m currently reading The Score Take Care of Itself by Bill Walsh, and whilst I haven’t got very far yet, the section on the 49ers losing to the Miami Dolphins and coping with adversity rings ever so true. This week we have some coaches who will be facing down despair and problems, whilst others will have taken a moment to savour a win before swiftly moving on to the next week’s game.

The usual king of this, as exemplified by his famous, ‘We’re on to Cincinnati.’ press conference back in 2014, is Bill Belichick who will be trying to turn around the fortunes of his 1-2 team who got thoroughly outplayed by the Detroit Lions. I’m not sure too many people saw that one coming and we had a couple of reminders in week 3 of the old maxim that anything could happen on any given Sunday. The Patriots struggled on offensive as they continue to falter when running the ball and haven’t found the right mix in the passing game. We may see Josh Gordon if they can get him worked into the mix this week and after they take on the Dolphins this weekend they will have Julian Edelman back from suspension but it could take a while for this be sorted. I’m not going to overreact as it is early and I’ve written several times about how the Patriots plan to peak later in the season but for context the Patriots haven’t lost three straight since 2002 when they had a four game losing streak and missed out on the playoffs (they still had a winning 9-7 record).

Perhaps more surprising even than the Lions getting a win over the Patriots was the Buffalo Bills travelling to Minnesota and beating the Vikings 27-6 as Josh Allen managed to rushing touchdowns as well as a passing one. The Vikings will be looking to shake things off quickly as they are on the road in LA for the Thursday night game against the Rams and I’ve heard several people suggest that the Vikings had one eye on this game and that is why they had such a surprisingly poor game against a team they overlooked. I always find such talk a little troubling as I have no way of verifying and the infrastructure for the Vikings is such that my default would be to think it was an aberration that will quickly be righted but given the Packers (who the Vikings drew with last week) lost to Washington this week and the only team the Vikings have beat are the 49ers there is perhaps some concern that there might be deeper problems. Definitely one to keep and eye on, whilst I will have to take a look at Josh Allen on coaching tape this week to find out just how he managed to lead the Bills to a comfortable win.

In fact, there’s quite a lot I wish I could watch in more details including games I didn’t even see the highlights for. Apart from the two upsets I have already mentioned, the New York Giants travelled to the Houston Texans and won, surely placing even more pressure on head coach Bill O’Brien, whilst the Tennessee Titans managed to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars despite starting Blaine Gabbert and then having to play Marcus Mariota despite the limitations he has from a nerve injury when Gabbert was ruled out the game with a concussion. It has to be said that Mike Vrabel has done well to win two games given his quarterback situation and whilst it is far too small a sample size to draw any big conclusions about him as a coach, it is encouraging. Less encouraging is a third loss for  Oakland Raiders under Jon Gruden who along with the Arizona Cardinals join the Texans as the only teams yet to register a win this season.

The Atlanta Falcons lost a barnstormer of a game 42-37 to the New Orleans Saints, with Drew Brees spinning to get the winning score and the Falcons losing a second starting safety for the season to injury so things are getting increasingly tough for them.

Sadly for the San Francisco 49ers, Jimmy Garoppplo was lost for the season with a torn ACL as he tried to gain some extra yards rushing out of bounds. There has been a lot of focus on the steps the NFL are taking to protect the quarterbacks and with the effect losing that one player has on a team I can understand it up to a point. However, with another seemingly form tackle by Clay Matthews resulting in a penalty, not to mention the string of penalties some linemen are picking up in games the new interpretation of the roughing the passer penalty is definitely a huge talking point. In fact the Dolpins (who I’m sure Dan would like me to remind you are 3-0) lost William Hayes to a torn ACL on a sack that head coach Adam Gase is blaming on the new rules. If players are injuring themselves trying to comply with the new rules and some of the bigger name quarterbacks are suggesting that things have gone too far then perhaps the league will look at it. I don’t want to argue that the league has gone soft, and frankly I think this has more to do with keeping the star quarterbacks playing the safety concerns, but a lot of the plays that have been penalised were simply tackles and I have no idea how a two hundred and ninety pound player fighting his way past an offensive linemen to tackle a quarterback, who are often not exactly small themselves, are supposed to lay said quarterback gently to the turf so they don’t risk an injury. You need a certain amount of momentum to tackle a player and explosiveness to get there before the pass is thrown so a lot of these defenders are being put in a very difficult if not an impossible position.

There have been a number of exciting games, and I think we’d all much rather be focussing attention on say the amazing start to the season Patrick Mahomes has had in Andy Reid’s offence or how the LA Rams are ominously rolling through the season, but until the roughing the passer penalties slow down the conversation about the zebras could keep dominating the conversation and frankly I’d much rather be focussed on the surprises and the good play that is happening in the league. After all, the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills won this week, all things are possible.

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NFC Preview

05 Wednesday Sep 2018

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18-09-05 NFC-2

So having set myself this ridiculous task, it’s time to try to finish my whistle-stop previews in time for the start of the season so on to the NFC!

NFC North

The Minnesota Vikings won the division at a canter last season and whilst they might not have it all their own way this year now the Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and healthy, they are one of the fancied teams in the NFC. Having let three quarterbacks walk at the start of free agency they signed Kirk Cousins and expect to match offensive production with their fearsome defence. The offensive line is the one obvious weakness but in Mike Zimmer they have one of the best coaches in the league and I think they will be there or there about come December.

The Green Bay Packers had a down season last year thanks to Aaron Rodgers’s broken collar bone, but they will be hoping for a return to the playoffs now he’s back and healthy. A new GM saw the Packers dip into free agency more aggressively this offseason and after nine years they let go of Dom Capers and brought in Mike Pettine as a new defensive coordinator. It hard not to see the Packers in contention come the end of year as long as Rodgers stays healthy and if things gel for them they could be one of the better teams in the league.

The Detroit Lions went nine and seven but failed to make the playoffs and decided to go for a new head coach. They brought in Matt Patricia from the Patriots and a lot of the focus this year will be on just how good a coach the Belichick pupil is. Having left a team with the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA last season , Patricia takes over a Lions team that ranked nineteenth so we shall have to see, but I like the continuity of Jim Bob Cooter staying in charge of offence and continuing his successful work with Matthew Stafford. I can’t take too much from pre-season as I didn’t see any of the starters, but they were not impressive against the Browns and they could be a candidate for a team who struggles. We’ll just have to see how things work out and a lot depends on how successfully Patricia blends what he learnt in New England with his own beliefs now he’s the man who is ultimately responsible.

I was feeling things were on the up for the Chicago Bears even before they swung the trade for Khalil Mack. I’ve seen their offence improve over the course of the pre-season and whilst I’m not necessarily convinced by Mitchell Trubisky, with the skills players the Bears brought in through free-agency and new head coach Matt Nagy’s offensive scheme the Bears almost can’t help but improve on offence. The defence was pretty good before the addition of Mack and rookie linebacker Roquan Smith so I can see why there is a buzz around this team. How many wins this will actually yield this year I don’t know, but I like the aggressive approach the Bears took having realised how short a window an NFL franchises gets to exploit having a quarterback on a rookie contract. Whilst I didn’t like how they manoeuvred to get Trubisky in the draft, I like how they surrounded him with talent this offseason. Now let’s see just how big a dividend the team gets.

NFC East

The Philadelphia Eagles come into the season with one of the strongest rosters on paper, but there are a fare few injuries floating round apart from the Carson Wentz making his way back from the ACL and LCL tears. More worrying is that the Super Bowl winning Nick Foles and the first team offence have not scored a touchdown in pre-season. I think they are still favourites for the season and after the Super Bowl win Doug Pederson had all the affirmation he needs to stick to his plans but there may be a difficult few weeks ahead.

The Dallas Cowboys have lost a lot of franchise cornerstones over the last couple of seasons and big questions remain over who Dak Prescott will be throwing the ball to so a lot rests on how well Ezekiel Elliot can run the ball. That won’t be helped by the injuries to an offensive line that has been the cornerstone of the Cowboys’ offence in recent years. Meanwhile the defence has been more impacted by whether Sean Lee plays or not than any other unit has been by a single player that is not a quarterback. I’m not ready to declare them non-competitive just yet as there is potential for them to have a good year but it would not surprise me if they do in fact struggle, particularly as Jason Garrett doesn’t fill with a lot of confidence as head coach if this team starts to have difficulties.

Washington failed to make the playoffs last season and after several seasons of franchise tagging Kirk Cousins they traded for Alex Smith and then promptly gave him an extension. I am not convinced by the roster moves over recent years and I have a feeling that Jay Gruden will likely have his team win another 7-9 games like they have the last three seasons. There have been positive noised about Smith’s performance in the pre-season and when healthy Jordan Reed has been one of the most effective tight ends in the league in the passing game but I don’t know if the changes that have been made indicate a big improvement.

The New York Giants were a car crash last season with Ben McAdoo losing the locker room, the offence failing to function minus Odell Beckham and the defence slipping to a rank of eighteenth by DVOA having been second in 2016. This year’s Giants have a new GM and head coach who doubled down on Eli Manning despite his flagging form in recent years. They brought in Nate Solder from New England to solidify their offensive line at left tackle and drafted Saquon Barkley second in the draft without trading down and ignoring the various quarterbacks they could have had. There are genuine arguments about taking even as transcendent a talent as Barkley is thought to be over a quarterback given their respective values to a team and career length, but it seems they could have also struck a deal to move down but this what they have to play with now. The worry is how much does Manning still have in the tank but the coaching situation has to better than last year and so whilst I expect an improvement, I don’t know quite how much of a step up the Giants will make. I just hope they don’t regret not grabbing a quarterback when they had the second pick in the draft, who know when they’ll next pick that high again and they certainly will be hoping it isn’t for a while.

NFC South

The NFC south was one of the most competitive division s in the NFL last season with three teams finishing with double digit wins and making the playoffs.

The New Orleans Saints had a franchise changing draft bringing in enough defensive talent to shoot their ranking up into the top ten by DVOA whilst Alvin Kamara generated 1901 yards of offence. There were whispers that Drew Brees’s arm was not quite the same but he’s still as good as any quarterback in the league and threw for four thousand yards for the twelfth straight time! Yes he’s thirty-nine, but there don’t seem to have been any serious signs of decline yet and the Saints have just traded for Teddy Bridgewater who looked excellent throwing the ball for the Jets in pre-season. I’m not sure I would have invested the amount of draft capital the Saints did to pick such a raw pass rush talent in the first round as they did in this year’s draft but I suspect they will be there or there abouts at the end of the season.

The Carolina Panthers’ experiment with changing the way Cam Newton plays failed early in the season but he now has a new offensive coordinator in Norv Turner and I will be very interested to see how this works out. They do have multiple injuries at offensive tackle so it may be a work in progress but for his occasionally maddening accuracy issues, Newton is an effective quarterback in the style that he plays. If the defence continues to be in the top ten by DVOA then I would feel confident in saying that the Panthers will contend. My only concern is that for the last six years the Panthers have alternated double digit win seasons with seven win seasons, although one of them did net a playoff appearance. I certainly don’t believe this constitutes a pattern that is going to suddenly manifest itself in a seven win season but I do worry about their Panthers consistency from year to year. As ever we shall just have to see what the season holds.

The Atlanta Falcons were coming off a difficult Super Bowl loss last season and losing their offensive coordinator to the San Francisco 49ers. They were still a good team but the offence didn’t quite flow under Steve Sarkiesian but the defence continued to shape up under head coach Dan Quinn’s direction and they made it to the playoffs once more. Having adjusted Julio Jones’s contract and extended Matt Ryan’s contract the Falcons look set to challenge once again this season and may feel they weren’t far away last season in the playoffs.

The other team in the NFC South very much feel like the other team. Head coach Dirk Koetter was promoted because of his relationship with Jameis Winston who so desperately wants to be a leader but hasn’t quite managed that or to develop his play. Winston starts the season on suspension after groping an Uber driver and this franchise feels like it is disarray and it would not exactly surprise me if this team struggles all season. We shall have to see how the season plays out and it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong, but come the end of the year I suspect it could be all change for the Buccaneers.

NFC West

Last season’s surprise package in the NFC were the LA Rams who were transformed by young head coach Sean McVay who overhauled the offence to reignite Todd Gurley and rescue Jared Goff from the category of draft bust whilst leaving Wade Phillip alone to run the defence. Not content with making it to the playoffs last season they added Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Sam Shields, and Ndamukong Suh to the defence. It’s clear they have faith in Wade Phillips to control that combustible mix of personalities but there is no doubting these players talent and if both sides of the ball live up to expectations they will be one of the more formidable teams in the league. I’m not sure if it is possible to live up to some of the hype but the Rams would be my pick as favourite for this division.

The Seattle Seahawks had a tough time last year as injuries hobbled the legion of boom and it has been all change for the franchise in the offseason. Not a lot is expected of them, particularly with Earl Thomas holding out but I’m ready to give up on Pete Carroll just yet. The offensive line might finally have solidified a little according to those watching closely and Rashaad Penny, the Seahawks’ rookie running back, has been turning heads in pre-season. As has Australian rookie punter Michael Dickson who managed to kick two fifty yard plus punts out of bounds within the five yard line in one game. I’m not prepared to guarantee anything other than a competitive team, but I think they could surprise a few people this season.

The Arizona Cardinals seem a strange prospect for me without Bruce Arians never mind having to find a new starting quarterback. We know that Sam Bradford is unlikely to make it through the season without getting injured and that receiving legend Larry Fitzgerald deservers a better team, but David Johnson is returning from a wrist injury and so he should get back to something like his previous form. However, with a new coaching staff and so much turmoil it feels like whilst this team in transition might rally round and surprise people, it could also really struggle and something says to me that struggle is the more likely option. I always want to see teams and players do well so I hope to be proved wrong.

Finally, in this two day scramble of writing madness we come to the only team with a quarterback who has an undefeated starting record in the NFL. It is a small sample size so whilst I’m certain that Jimmy Garoppolo’s steak won’t continue throughout this season, the hope that he and first year head coach Kyle Shanahan gave last year will continue to come to fruition this year. However, they have already lost running back Jerick McKinnon to an ACL injury and it’s worth remembering the place that the 49ers started from when John Lynch came in to be Shanahan’s GM last year. I expect the 49ers to be competitive even if they can’t replicate the five game winning streak from the end of last year’s season but the fans from San Francisco may have to wait until next season to return to the playoffs given the size of the rebuild job that had to be taken on. I wouldn’t necessarily put any money on that though…

As the Season of Hope Turns

08 Friday Jun 2018

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kigoa football on green grass during daytime

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It will not be very long before the players start practising in pads and before you know it we’ll be though the summer and into the weekly grind of the full NFL season.

Quiet as I may have been during these off-season milestones, I was following along as ever and so whilst we wait for training camp and the start of something we can actually dig our teeth into, I thought I would write a series of deliberately partial articles about what has been going on. The NFL media and coverage continues to expand and my aim has never been to bring you breaking news, but there’s been some interesting developments over the last few months along with the usual flurry of coaching and player changes so I’ll be digging into these and maybe straying into such things as the new rule changes as well, although I might side step the anthem protest developments until we are closer to some games actually being played, but let’s say I’m not exactly impressed with the NFL’s new policy or Trump’s reaction.

Rest assured that deliberately partial is not code for a long series of articles on the Bengals, although I’m sure they will feature, but I’ll pick out some key points I want to write about and I’d welcome input from any of you if there is a topic you’d like me to take a look at. However, as much as I like to say they get overly praised when a team wins, and overly blamed for each loss, not only are quarterbacks a very important part of any team but they are the focus of an awful lot of fans’ hopes in the off-season.

It has been an interesting off-season for quarterbacks. The Minnesota Vikings started the off-season with three quarterbacks going out of contract and kicked off a larger than usual move round of signal callers when they opted not to renew the contracts of any of them but instead signed Washington player Kirk Cousins to a three year guaranteed contract after Washington allowed his to expire. It is rare for a starting quality quarterback to hit the market, yet alone one who has accrued three straight four thousand yard seasons and is still in his twenties. It is an interesting contract that Cousins signed as all three years are guaranteed, but whilst I could very much see this becoming a thing for quarterbacks given their importance to the team (which does grant them additional leverage) it is hard to see the rest of the NFL players getting such deals.

With this first free agency domino falling the Vikings’ old quarterbacks were soon signed to new teams. It appears that the Denver Broncos were unable to get seriously into the competition to sign Cousins and quickly switched to signing Case Keenum after his impressive run to the Conference Finals. He had an excellent season last year but the Minnesota offensive line was unable to protect him against the Eagles pass rush in the NFC Championship game and so the Broncos will be hoping he is able to recapture the form of the regular season for them. The Broncos have named Keenum their start and are looking to continue the development of Paxton Lynch behind him despite Lynch not being able to make use of his impressive arm talent since he was drafted back in 2016. Still, this signing did allow the Broncos to draft Bradley Chubb in round one who is reckoned to be the most rounded pass rusher in this draft class and with the players already available to the Broncos, he will likely be an excellent addition to the front seven of their defence.

While Keenum headed to the Broncos, the Vikings’ opening day starter, the oft injured Sam Bradford, signed yet another big contract, this time with the Arizona Cardinals. With the retirement of Carson Palmer the Cardinals went into the off-season with no real option for a starting quarterback yet as well as the signing of Bradford, the Cardinals traded up to the tenth pick to select Josh Rosen. We won’t know how this turns out until a few years down the road but the criticism of Rosen’s off field interests seemed overblown and given the position in which the Cardinals started the off-season, they have given themselves a shot this year with their two new quarterbacks and could be set for the future if their young QB can back up his claim that the teams who passed on him made a mistake.

The final Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater signed with the New York Jets, but given that the Jets resigned last year’s starter in Josh McCown and moved up to take a quarterback it still looks like a long road back to starting for Bridgewater having suffered a horrendous injury in preseason two years ago. The Philadelphia Eagles have demonstrated the benefit of having two quarterbacks on the roster with their Super Bowl win and with the dearth at the position if Bridgewater can demonstrate he’s on the way back to something like his previous form he should get a legit shot as a starter somewhere. The early buzz coming out of the Jets OTAs (organised team activities) were that Bridgewater looked like the best quarterback of the team, but I’m always wary of the buzz surrounding players until we start seeing them in pre-season games and for quarterbacks, even good play in pre-season doesn’t necessarily translate into the regular season. The Jets could be taking a leaf out of the Eagles recent roster moves and be driving interest for a trade, but I think a lot of the league and most neutrals will be hoping Bridgewater makes a full comeback.

Before I dig properly into the first round quarterbacks who were drafted I just want to cover the saga of Washington and Kirk Cousins briefly, As I said earlier, it is not often that a quarterback still in his twenties with three consecutive four thousand yard seasons hits the free agent market. Washington seemed to be unwilling to make the kind of deal that Cousins and most quarterbacks of his ability would expect and whilst there was some defending the first franchise tag given to him two seasons ago as he was a fourth round draft pick and had really broken through late, there is no real defence for Washington not committing to Cousins long term when he threw for four thousand yards a second time. It is pretty remarkable that he completed the feat for a third straight season given that Washington let both of their top two receivers leave before last season. What they did do this year as Cousins second one year franchise tag was nearly expired was trade for thirty-four year old veteran Alex Smith from the Kansas City Chiefs, sending them a corner back as part of the trade, and signing Smith to a four year deal with fifty-five million dollars guaranteed at signing. If he makes it to the end of his contract he is guaranteed seventy-one million dollars, but whether he can make it to thirty-eight is a big question even with modern sports medicine and particularly as Smith is an underrated runner who doesn’t sit in the pocket and distribute the ball without getting hit like a Tom Brady or Drew Brees. I can’t pretend to know what lay behind these decisions, but I don’t like the process and it does not instill faith in the franchise.

So with the major quarterback moves wrapped up the NFL headed into the draft and I have already mentioned two teams that double dipped signing Vikings’ free agents and drafted quarterbacks in the first round but the first pick of the draft belonged to the Cleveland Browns and this time they did take a quarterback, but not the one everybody was expecting when they drafted Baker Mayfield. Now I’m interested in the draft and I do enjoy the analysis of players and even look up draft grades but I don’t take them seriously. We won’t know what players are going to work out or not, and so much is to do with scheme fit, changes in coaching staff, injury luck that whilst there are players you would feel more confident than others, no one can know. Hell, we’re still waiting for Andrew Luck to play again for the Indianapolis Colts having played through a shoulder injury and missed all of last season. You have to wonder at the medical advice the Colts young franchise quarterback received and why he was allowed to play for so long with what is clearly a serious issue during the 2016 season.

Getting back to the Browns, if this pick works out then great and what I do like is that they picked their player rather than the outside experts but we can’t know whether this was the right decision for a number of season. In fact we might never know as bad luck could scupper the pick or something else unforeseen. What I can question is what the New York Giants did with the second pick as whilst no one would question the talent or ability of running back Saquon Barkley, it is hard to argue that even as good as he can be that the Giants will get equivalent value out of a position that you are lucky to get through two contracts compared to having an entire career of a franchise quarterback. The Giants may well have not liked the quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but they refused to move down and even if Eli Manning regains some of the form that he has failed to display over the last two seasons, at thirty-seven he can’t have that long left in the league and when will the Giants be picking this high again?. Even if they have complete faith in the quarterback Davis Webb who didn’t see the field during a turbulent 2017 season that saw Geno Smith get a start, they could have likely traded the pick to one of the quarterback needy teams, got a big haul and still got a very good player.

What this did mean was the New York Jets who moved early to get up to the third pick took Sam Darnold who most people thought was the most ready quarterback of the draft. The Jets invested in three quarterbacks this off-season, but if Darnold can finally be the franchise quarterback the Jets have been missing for years if not decades then the cost would have been worth it. You can see the importance of the quarterback to teams who don’t have them in the moves of the Buffalo Bills, who having already traded up to the twelfth pick with the Bengals (only my second mention of them in this post) traded again with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get to seven so they could take Josh Allen. I have already mentioned the Cardinals trading up to take Josh Rosen at ten, but at the end of the first round with the Ravens having already picked and the Eagles coming off a Super Bowl win but short on draft picks haven given up a lot to draft Carson Wentz in 2016, the Eagles traded out the first round as the Raven’s Ozzie Newsome in his final draft as GM picked the fifth quarterback to go on day one in Lamar Jackson.

I still find it somewhat strange that the 2016 Heisman trophy winner had four quarterbacks selected ahead of him and that he slipped past the Saints and Patriots who both have ageing quarterbacks that could have taught Jackson a lot. As could the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger although he was not exactly enthusiastic about the selection of Mason Rudolph in the third round and claims to be planning to play for a number of years yet despite several years of off-season where Roethlisberger talked of retirement.

This leads me to where I’m going to finish off, with this thought:

With the hope given to franchises in recent years by quarterbacks like Carson Wentz, the LA Rams’ Jared Gough, or the flashes from Deshaun Watson in Houston, it has reinforced the theory that there is no price too high to pay for getting a franchise quarterback. However, you had better be certain about that player as if you get that call wrong, even if it isn’t entirely your fault, as the person who put your faith in the player you are going to get fired if things don’t work out.

It’s not exactly fair, but that is life in the NFL.

The Playoff Fallen

20 Saturday Jan 2018

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So I need to catch up with the teams who have departed the playoffs so having started this post last week, here’s my now finished run through the playoff fallen starting with the losing wild card teams.

The first team to fall were the Kansas City Chiefs who managed to lose a game to the Tennessee Titans that they were leading 21-3 at half time. The Chiefs have been up and down this season with a significant mid-season lull that gave way to a four game win streak coming into their playoff game against the Titans. However, a number of factors combined for the Chiefs to lose this Wildcard game and demonstrated one of the warts that has affected them all year. The defence of the Chiefs has had problems ever since safety Eric Berry ruptured his Achilies, but their overall ranking of thirtieth by DVOA and dead last against the run showed up in this game when the Chiefs failed to stop the Titans’ second half come back and Derrick Henry finishing the game with one hundred and fifty-six rushing yards. The Chief offence also came to a sputtering stop once Travis Kelce left the game with a concussion meaning the Titans could focus on stopping the speedy Chiefs receivers with two deep safeties. The Chiefs further played into this by only giving Kareem Hunt elven carries in the entire game and running Alex Smith at inopportune moments. The Cheifs’ recent playoff record is also clearly on their usually very loud crowd’s mind as it got quieter the better the Titans did, although I defy any fan to be confident when the opposing quarterback throws a touchdown pass to himself.

This could well be Alex Smith’s final game for the Chiefs given his 1-4 playoff record in the five season that he and head coach Andy Reid have been with the franchise and with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings. I don’t believe this loss can really be blamed on Smith and they could stick with him as they develop a still raw Mahomes but patience does seem to be wearing thin for a section of their fans and the narrative seems to be that Smith will leave in the offseason. Their current offensive co-ordinator Matt Nagy has already left to be the new head coach of the Chicago Bears and with Smith’s current playoff record perhaps it is time to change with a new coordinator coming in. The defence will also need an overhaul given the age of a number of players and their reliance on a twenty-nine year old safety who will be recovering from an Achilles injury next season. In recent years the Chiefs have been competitive but their approach last offseason seemed to be split between short term and long term agendas and I am curious to see how they approach this one.

The second team to lose on wild car weekend were the LA Rams whose remarkable turnaround season couldn’t overcome the playoff experience of the Atlanta Falcons whose defence was able to stifle the Rams offence. This was mainly due to excellent tackling against the short routes so although Todd Gurley did get over one hundred yards on the ground, he was not able to dominated in the way he has for much of the season. As frustrating as this loss was, part of the problem were repeated special teams miscues by Pharoh Cooper early in the game, which was not a reflection of his Pro Bowl special teams play through the year. Still, this was a season of marked improvement for the Rams with plenty of young players to grow with their coach and you would expect them to be competitive next season but it has to be hard for Andrew Whitworth to lose another wild card playoff game.

The Buffalo Bills scraped into the playoffs on the back of a final drive fourth down touchdown pass from the Bengals’ Andy Dalton but they couldn’t overcome the Jaguars in their first playoff game in eighteen years. The Bills defence managed to contain the Jaguars offence by committing to stopping the run and daring Blake Bortles to beat them in his first playoff game. This plan could have worked if Tyrod Taylor didn’t have nearly as bad a game as Bortles and LeSean McCoy was fully healthy, but the offence couldn’t do enough and the game was lost 10-3. This was still a turnaround for the Bills and first year head coach Sean McDermott has things to work on but offensive co-ordinator Rick Dennison paid the price and the Bills will be one of several teams looking for a quarterback this offseason. The Bills could continue their improvement, but they will be limited until they get a quarterback and offence in place that everyone in the franchise believes in.

The final wild card game saw the Carolina Panthers lose to the New Orleans Saints for the third time this year. The Panthers have been very solid on defence all year, but their offence has been very up and down. A slow start was not that surprising given that Cam Newton was coming off shoulder surgery in the offseason and the Panthers were trying a new approach, but this never really took and the offence didn’t really start to work until Newton began to run more. This made the play of Newton very important for how the offence went, which is not that unusual for a quarterback but Newton’s size ability to run, whilst being a dangerous weapon, has to make up for his volatility in the passing game. When Newton is on he is as dangerous a quarterback as there is in the league, but with injuries at receiver (the Panthers also traded away Kelvin Benjamin during the season) and Newton’s favourite target tight end Greg Olsen battling with a foot injury that was clearly still affecting him, he was not able to beat the Saints despite playing well. Going into the offseason the Panthers have replaced offensive co-ordinator Mike Shula with Norv Turner so a new offence will be installed in the summer and it will be fascinating to see how these changes work and how Newton takes to although at least he will be able to practise this offseason.

Moving on to last week’s games and the first team to fall were the Atlanta Falcons who couldn’t match their performance against the Rams when they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in a tight competitive game. The Falcons were only able to score ten points on the league’s fifth ranked defence by DVOA but whilst the offensive rankings of the Falcons don’t look bad (tenth in passing and sixteenth rushing by DVOA) it does feel like this unit underachieved given the calibre of players available. Yes some regression from last year’s stellar performance was to be expected but it has been a difficult year for Steve Sarkisian in taking over from Kyle Shanahan and whilst he is coming back next season, there will be pressure to improve or the discontent could cause real problems. This could be true for the whole staff given the painful playoff exit and the Super Bowl last year given that both games were winnable. Still, if the offence can be brought round and the defence continues its rise the Falcons could be very formidable next season.

The Tennessee Titans had done well to win their first game against the Chiefs, but there are limits and it was always going to be a tough job to go into Gillette stadium and beat the New England Patriots. To their credit, the Titans kept it competitive for a quarter and took a 7-0 lead before the Patriots shook off the rust from their bye week and ran out easy 35-14 winners. The Titans were pretty average in all three phases of the game this season and actually ranked three places lower by overall DVOA at eighteenth compared to last season. Despite getting a playoff win head coach Mike Mularkey was unable to come to an agreement with the Titans’ front office and so they will be looking for someone new to develop Marcus Mariota. The team definitely improved under Mularkey with a pair of winning seasons but the play of their young quarterback does not look to have progressed as you would hope and I have to think they are looking for a new offensive philosophy and someone who can make one of the most dynamic quarterback in recent college history look like that in the pro game. Given the success that the Chiefs and others have had in incorporating elements from the college game into their offence this does seem achievable, but it all depends on who takes over. Still, at least the Titans have progressed and they are no longer a team devoid of talent and identity, but there are some very big decisions to be made this offseason.

The NFL had great pair of games on Sunday and the opener saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars 45-42 and crash out the playoffs at home. The Steelers had got a first round bye with a 13-3 record and finished the regular season ranked inside the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA. However, there were two problems that sank them in this game. I am reluctant to talk about motivation and whether the players were looking past the Jaguars to a conference championship game at the Patriots, a matchup that many had expected for a lot of the season, but what I can say is that the Steelers started slow. The Jaguars got out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, and whilst the Steelers were able to get back into the game, they were never able to get closer than seven points until the very last second of the game with a meaningless touchdown that came too late. The Steelers offence did manage to put up forty-two points against one of the best defences in the league but it was not easy and there had to be a lot of impressive catches and fourth down conversions to get them. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defence never looked the same one Ryan Shazier was lost to the spinal contusion he picked up in the Steelers’ brutal game against the Bengals in week thirteen. The talk has mostly been about fourth down conversions and the slow start, but the Steelers defence let a league average offence with Blake Bortles as their quarterback put up forty-five points on them and that has to hurt.

Some changes are already taking place. There appears to have been discord between offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger but Haley’s contract has expired and he is not being renewed. It looks like quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner will replace him and Roethlisberger looks to be a lot more committed to coming back next season than he was last offseason with all his talk of retirement. Still, given that Shazier had to have spine stabilisation surgery and as far as we know hasn’t walked yet, let alone be anywhere near playing football again (if that is even a possibility), the Steelers will need to address the defence again this offseason but it feels like they should be able to take another deep run next season.

If the first game on Sunday saw an upset against a veteran quarterback, the second saw a miraculous play knock out the New Orleans Saints and their future hall of fame quarterback. The Saints finally managed to assemble a defence that could do enough to get Drew Brees into the playoffs again, ably helped by the league’s best rushing attack by DVOA. Two all NFL rookies helped with this turn around and having seen off the Panthers last week, it looked like the Saints were going to beat the second seeded Minnesota Vikings when they found themselves on fourth down with seconds to go, no timeouts, and were one point behind the Saints. However, another one of the Saints’ rookies, safety Marcus Williams who already had an interception in this game made a horrible play as Stefon Diggs caught a ball in front of him. All Williams had to do was stop Diggs from getting out of bounds and hold him up so Diggs could be tackled in bounds, but he came flying past Diggs without touching him allowing Diggs to turn and suddenly there was no one between him and the end zone. The Vikings fans fortunes finally changed as the miraculous play went their way and the Saints promising season came to a shuddering halt.

That play will haunt Williams all offseason, whilst the franchise will be worrying about re-signing Drew Brees who is an unrestricted free agent. However, given the way this year’s team played, and the potential for their rookie players to develop further next year then it is hard not to see Brees back playing for the Saints and them being very competitive next season. After a number of years where they were asking Brees to do too much, they now look setup to compete as long as Brees is willing and able to play like he did this year. We should make the most of being able to watch him whilst we still can.

Wildcard Sunday

07 Sunday Jan 2018

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Buffalo Bills (9-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

The early game on Sunday is also probably the unlikeliest if you had asked anyone before the start of the season as it features the Bills breaking a seventeen season streak of not making the playoffs travelling to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team who themselves haven’t played a playoff game in ten years.

The Jaguars stuck with interim head coach Doug Marrone having fired Gus Bradley during last season and brought Tom Coughlin back to help in the front office. The change has worked with a couple of further additions to an already talented defence creating a unit that led the league by DVOA and that has carried the team through the season. The only problem has been that the offence has been so focussed on running the ball and limiting quarterback Blake Bortles that this is not a team built to come from behind. With the league’s best passing defence this has not been a problem during the regular season but could be an issue in the playoff as the level of competition increases and they face some of the best offences in the league.

The Bills come into this game after the high of breaking a streak of missing the playoff but I’m not sure anyone would have predicted that happening during an offseason where the new regime overhauled the roster, trading away known names as they started again. This continued into the season and it was clear that a long term project was under way and that the team wanted a particular type of player on the roster. The main talk surrounding first year head coach Sean McDermott was his decision to start Nathan Peterman in week eleven. The rookie quarterback threw five interceptions and the game was lost horribly but to McDermott’s credit he did not lose the team after this debacle and nearly everything else has been impressive about the way the Bills have competed in his first year. Their offence may only be ranked twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA, but they can run the ball and Tyrod Taylor may be conservative but he does not turn the ball over. In LeShaun McCoy the Bills have a running back that can break big runs but he is carrying an ankle injury coming into this game and whilst it looks like he will start, a back that is successful because of their lateral movement and explosiveness is definitely going to be affected by an ankle problem. This is a shame given that the Jaguars rank a surprising twenty-sixth against the run. The Bills defence is sold rather than spectacular but did generate twenty-five turn overs, which was eleventh in the league.

In this battle of playoff underdogs my heart wants the Bills to win, but the head thinks that the Jaguars are the better team. If Blake Bortles has a bad game and McCoy can show some of his top form then the Bills can win this game, but they really need further improvements to truly compete and I would expect the Jaguars to win this one.

This game does represent want the NFL wants, competitive balance with every team truly able to sell to their fans that next season we can make the playoffs..

Carolina Panthers ((11-5) @ New Orleans Saints (11-5)

The final game of the weekend looks to be one of the most competitive as two division rivals with matching records face off against each other.

The Carolina Panthers have had a strange season where their defence has looked good all year, finishing sixth by DVOA but the offence has been up and down all season. An early attempt to change the way Cam Newton plays did not work and it was only when they went back to running him that the offence was truly effective. The problem with this is that unlike the season where he led this team to the Super Bowl, Newton’s play has been erratic and he has put in some truly bad passing performances. However, he is a truly dynamic player that can wreak havoc running the ball and he is likely to need to as his receiving options are not playing that well currently and his favourite receiver Greg Olson has not returned to his usual form since returning from the foot injury that kept the tight end out for most of the season. The Panthers do have a dynamic rookie receiving running back in Christian McCaffrey but with the evolution of the offence it doesn’t feel like the Panthers have a clear overall plan and so he has flashed his undoubted skill rather than dominated.

The Panthers travel to face a Saints team who have demonstrated just how quickly a team can turn round in the NFL. The Saints were coming off three seasons of 7-9 and seemed to be wasting the end of Drew Brees Hall of Fame career as they could not surround him with a defence that could make the team competitive. The highlights of this turn around are two players who could arguably be offensive and defensive rookie of the year. In running back Alvin Kamara they have an efficient complement to Mark Ingram who is truly terrifying in space and has the hands to help Drew Brees in the short passing game. In Marshone Lattimore they have a rookie corner who looks anything but a rookie and although it took a few weeks for the defence to gel, they finished the season ranked eighth in the league by DVOA and the Saints were overall number one as well.

The easy narrative for this game is that it is hard to beat a team three times in a row, but football is a game of matchups and in both of their previous games the Saints have scored thirty points and won the game. The Panthers have been one of the more aggressive teams in the league in terms of blitzing and the Saints have been pretty similar in this aspect of defence, but Brees is a much more precise quarterback and is better equipped to exploit the quick passes necessary to disarm the blitz. Newton is more than capable of using his legs to gain yards and avoid pressure but it feels like the Panthers, whilst being competitive are less likely to win this game.

I am very much looking forward to seeing how this game unfolds, but I do expect the Saints to run out winners for a third time.

Saturday Picks

23 Saturday Dec 2017

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As we head into the last two weeks of the regular season the playoff situation is becoming clearer, but as much as the focus has been on the turnaround of the new teams that are going to make it like the Philadelphia Eagles, the LA Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars there are a lot of familiar and experienced quarterbacks lurking or in pole position. No one would be surprised if Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady battle it out in the AFC championship game, but in the NFC whilst there are three inexperienced quarterbacks looking like they will win their divisions, the NFC South looks like it could send Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan into the playoffs. That’s three quarterbacks who don’t just have playoff experience but have been to a Super Bowl and in Brees’ case, won one.

With Carson Wentz’s injury the Eagles are less dominant in the NFC and it certainly feels like any one of the six teams that would go through if the season ends today could get on a run. The AFC is a somewhat murkier, especially given the partially torn calf muscle of Steelers’ receiver Antonio Brown. It is a fool’s game to be predicting what will happen, but it does feel like the NFC teams are stronger this season, but as we witnessed in their game last week, you should count the Patriots out at your peril. Something Dan and I failed to take into account when picking against them, although we both had winning records last week.

Gee:      Week 15   11-5                   Overall   128-97
Dan:      Week 15   9-7                     Overall   117-108

Colts @ Ravens (-13.5)

The Indianapolis Colts were competitive for a half last week, but in the end they were thoroughly beaten by the Broncos and this week they travel to face the Ravens in Baltimore who have been playing well of late. The Ravens have also pitched three defensive shutouts this season and I suspect the Colts will struggle to move the ball on them. This is a big line, but the Ravens have won six games by fourteen points or more this season and so I’m going to nervously back them to do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Vikings @ Packers (+6.5)

The Minnesota Vikings just keep rolling and with the Green Bay Packers placing Aaron Rodgers back on IR after they were eliminated from the playoffs it is hard to see anything other than a Vikings win in this game. It is a divisional game so it could be more competitive than generally assumed, but Rodgers’ absence has demonstrated how important he is to this team, and I think the Vikings should cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Saints @ Panthers

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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Carolina Panthers 23
New Orleans Saints 20

This was as good a Thursday night game as we have had in a while in that what started off as a very one sided game ended up with an exciting finish thanks to a late surge by the Saints and the Panthers struggling towards the end of the game.

The Panthers offence was up and down for most of the game as they struggled to make any headway in the run game and so were often forced to pass the ball with mixed success. The run game was particularly bad as Cam Newton, Jonathan Steward, and Ted Ginn all had runs of ten yards or more, and yet the Panthers managed a paltry fifty yards in total. Jonathan Stewart’s eighteen carries for thirty-one yards looks particularly anaemic, although these numbers will have been hurt by a dangerous attempt to run out the clock that nearly cost the Panthers the game in the fourth quarter. Cam Newton managed not to turn the ball over, but he completed less that fifty percent of his passes, but did manage to connect up with Ted Ginn for a forty yard touchdown thanks to a great catch at the back of the end zone at the end of the second quarter. This game could have been won a lot more easily if the Panthers had kept playing offence into the fourth quarter, but the offensive line struggled a lot throughout the game and the attempts to run out the clock just did not work.

The Saints defence played better than I was expecting, and whilst I knew it had taken some steps forward since the start of the season, I was not expecting them to cause as many problems for the Panthers as they did. The real star of the show was the Saints front seven who effectively shut down the Panthers running game, as well as getting two sacks and seven quarterback hits. In fact they hurried Newton several times, with Dannell Ellerbe coming up with four tackles, a sack, and two quarterback hits. The Panthers’ struggles in the passing game were as much to do with Cam Newton’s accuracy as coverage, but the pressure he was under was surely a factor and re-enforces the old maxim that good coverage helps create pass rush, and pass rush helps create good coverage.

The Saints offence had a harder time scoring than the Panthers for much of the game, but they actually out-gained the Panthers by nearly one hundred and fifty yards. That said, part of that seemed to be that their running game improved when Mark Ingram went out of the game in the third quarter and Tim Hightower came into the game. Hightower amassed sixty-nine yards on just twelve carries including a long of twenty-seven yards. The Panthers were able to pressure Drew Brees who was sacked three times and hit a further four times, but he threw for over two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns with only one interceptions. Rookie receiver Michael Thomas led the team with five catches for sixty-eight yards, but Brees had nine different players catch balls as he distributed the ball with characteristic skill, but in the end it wasn’t enough.

The Panthers defence has been better since the bye, the front seven coming back to form as their very young secondary came together. They struggled later in this game, with 6ft 6 Brandon Coleman catching the Saints’ first touchdown over 5ft 9 Robert McClain with Leonard Johnson having gone out of the game. However, the real worry for the Panthers will be Luke Kuechly who left the game sobbing in the fourth quarter and who is once more in the concussion protocol. Their leading tackler missed three games last season to a concussion, and whilst Friday’s Instagram picture with a smiling Kuechly may give hope to some, you have to be worry about how much more football he should play. As fantastic a player as Kuechly is, and I have been very bullish on my praise in the past, the troublesome nature of head injuries in football and the position he plays means it may be time for him to seriously consider his career.

This was a tight game that should have been a highlight of the Thursday night schedule, but with two players now in the concussion protocol the gloss has come off the game. As much as I love football, we cannot and should not ignore what can happen to players, and I just hope that both players make a full recovery and listen to their doctors.

A Return to Form

17 Thursday Nov 2016

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So the games of week ten were as good as my picks were awful!

One of the reasons suggested for the NFL’s falling ratings has been the quality of the games, particularly in the nationally televised games, but we had a series of close and eventful finishes and probably the game of the season in the Sunday night prime time slot with the Seattle Seahawks beating the New England Patriots in a back and forth game that had seven lead changes. This followed and equally back and forth game between the Cowboys and Steelers that featured three touchdowns in the last two minutes.

The New Orleans Saints must have thought they had won the game when Drew Brees somehow found Brandin Cooks in the end zone despite being covered by two Broncos’ players. However, the resulting extra point was blocked by rookie safety Justin Simmons who vaulted the long snapper Justin Drescher with the help of Jared Crick who made sure that Drescher couldn’t stand up and make contact with Simmons by pushing him down. The NFL has later confirmed that as this was an open handed push it was legal. If Simmons’s block wasn’t enough though, another rookie safety in Will Parks scooped up the ball and ran it back to the end zone for a two point defensive score that gave the Broncos the lead before receiving the ball and holding on for the win. Such are the margins that games turn on in the NFL, although the Saints will likely feel aggrieved as with no definitive view of Parks who likely stepped out of bounds during the return, the return stood. It is very possible that this play would have been overturned if Parks had been wearing black boots, but it is too late now. Still, it is yet another dramatic ending for a really good slate of games over the weekend and we will likely see similar leaping block attempts in crucial field goals/extra points at the end of games, with the same manoeuvre executed on the poor long snapper who can’t do much to defend himself in that position.

The fine margins that separate winning and losing are not always so obvious, but the differences between good and average teams are not always that big. This season seems to have a particular large sample of so-so teams, with it seems everybody agreeing that the Patriots, Cowboys, and Seahawks are looking dangerous, a mass of teams with one or two potential contenders for post season success, and then likes of the Browns and 49ers vying for the first pick in next year’s draft.

The Bengals could be seen as a microcosm of this in that their 3-5-1 record is pretty awful, but they are only two games out in the surprisingly poor AFC North. They are not actually a bad team, but they seem to have been doomed by too many changes at once and things won’t quite come together. Whether certain parts of the team just got too old at the same time I don’t know, but most would consider the roster to be one of the most talented in the league. However, there have been so many changes with a new offensive coordinator and several new postition coaches on defence, and nothing has looked quite right. The lack of consistency is what is hampering the Bengals and those who have been calling for Marvin Lewis to be fired are unlikely to be quietened by anything other than a major turnaround in the second half of the season and post season success.

There are so many moving parts in an NFL franchise, that playing within a structure that is supposed to promote parity, it hardly a surprise that it is hard to be consistently good. Only the very best and worst are standing out at the moment, but whilst you will frequently hear people questioning decisions, you also frequently hear criticisms of such and such is a bad coach, and I’m not always sure that is fair.

In some corners of the NFL coverage you will frequently hear disparaging comments about Andy Reid’s clock management, and these are not entirely without merit, however as demonstrated by their come back on Sunday, even when the Chiefs fall into a hall the players believe in Reid and keep playing. He has won an awful lot of football games, and there is a lot more to being a head coach that clock management. If you get a chance, listen to Ron Riviera talking on this week’s Peter King podcast to get a flavour of what the coaches are going through. I do sometime feel that coaches are wedded to the way they were brought up in football, but there is a constant search for the next small advantage that could turn a game and we don’t always get to see or hear about them.

In a changing game with so much variation from season to season, the sustained success of the Patriots and Seahawks are all the more remarkable, and whilst there is a lot to take from the recent string of Bengals success, they still haven’t won a playoff game since 1990, the longest in the league. In a results based world like the NFL, people’s jobs are tied to very variable results and this does not always lead to better results, but with the seasons that the Bengals are having, much like the Packers who are a team who also have a history of patience with coaches, change could be in the air at the end of the season. There is still over a quarter of the season to go, but things are getting serious now so let’s see what happens.

 

Saints @ Panthers (-3.5)

I got bitten by the line last week, but whilst the Saints are a better team than the Browns, and have a better record than the Panthers, the Panthers played well for long stretches against the Kansas City Chiefs and have looked a lot more like themselves in recent weeks. It may be too late for a playoff push, but I’m not picking against them at home in this Thursday night game.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:         Panthers

Week 6 Falcons at Saints Recap

17 Saturday Oct 2015

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Despite it making a mockery of my pick for the game and my comments on the inaugural Wrong Football podcast, I thoroughly enjoyed this week’s Thursday night game where a desperate New Orleans Saints team managed to tear up the script and get an upset win over the visiting Atlanta Falcons.

The Saints managed to get a fast start, get the lead, and hold onto it for the rest of the game. Whilst they were marginally outgained by the Falcons on offence, they managed to take advantage of the Falcons’ flaws at key points to earn the win.

I’ll start with the Saints offence, and what I wrote about them when I was picking this game because Drew Brees answered the questions I had by having an amazing game. The Saints offensive line was giving up pressure all game, but Brees was so good that he was able to get the ball out and keep them moving. More importantly, he was also able to repeatedly link up with tight end Ben Watson who caught ten balls for one hundred and twenty-seven yards and a touchdown, exploiting the Falcons defence’s inability to cover him. The running game still wasn’t that effective, but thanks to Brees finding a rhythm, particularly in the second half, they were able to move the ball. I really can’t say too much in praise of Brees in this game as much like Philip Rivers in the last Monday night game, Brees was so quick with his decision with where to throw the ball that he managed to avoid getting sacked despite there frequently being defenders in the back field. Let’s face it we’d all rather Brees was playing well, so whilst he will face more complex defences this season, let’s hope that this is just the start of better things for the Saints offence.

That said, for large parts of the first half the Falcons defence had the upper hand and after giving up the first drive, did force several three and outs from the Saints as they managed to get pressure on Brees, and they prevented the Saints from running the ball effective all game. However, the Saints were able to repeatedly find Ben Watson who kept taking advantage of the Falcons coverage to have a career day. Also, despite repeatedly getting behind the Saints o-line, they were only able to sack Drew Brees once in this game, amassing four QB hits across the game.

If the Falcons defence struggled with one matchup, the offence struggled with turnovers, which ruined what could have been an otherwise fine performance. They struggled a little early on as the Falcons’ offensive line issues from last year resurfaced this week, but a combination of using play action and moving Matt Ryan to counter the line’s pass blocking issues, and effective zone blocking in the run game, meant that they were able to move the ball effectively for the majority of the game. The issue was that they repeated fumbled the ball, both on snaps to the quarterback and in the running game, ending good drives and preventing them from getting back into the contest. In fact the Falcons were able to run at will, racking up one hundred and fifty yards on just twenty-one attempts, but because of playing from behind were unable to exploit this as much as they would have liked. This also lead them to resort to the pass more than they would have liked, putting pressure back on their offensive line later in the game to stand up in more straight up pass blocking, which they were unable to do giving up five sacks. Special mention should go to Devonta Freeman who had a one hundred yard rushing day on just thirteen attempts as well as eight receptions for fifty-six yards, finishing the game with two touchdowns.

I was rude about the Saints defence, but whilst they had some effective moments in this game, they were run all over by the Falcons, and it was a combination of game flow and their opponents that enable them to do enough to win. I will say that I was impressed both with Cameron Jordan who ended the game with three sacks and racked up a further four quarterback hits, as well as corner Delvin Breaux who caught my eye several times in coverage. Time will tell if Rob Ryan is actually beginning to build something, or if this was a situational performance helped by a Superdome crowd who were given something to cheer early, and an opponent who had to move away from their game plan whilst being careless with the ball.

Take nothing away from the Saints though, they managed to put together all the ingredients to get the upset win, they started with an intensity that the Falcons didn’t seem prepared for, got an early lead to bring their home fans into play, and were able to generate enough defence to hold the Falcons at bay. It was great to see Drew Brees looking like the quarterback we have enjoyed watching so much over the years, and whilst I have no idea if this is a turning point in their season, it was definitely a step in the right direction.

The Falcons will be cross with the way that they gave this game away, but it also demonstrates that not all of their faults from last season have been corrected. The offensive line has been much better this season, but they will struggle in games where they are forced to chase the opposition or in situations where the defence can pin their ears back and rush the passer. They are clearly still a team to be reckoned with this season, but coaches around the league will be looking at the tape of this game to see those exploitable flaws, and it is just possible the Falcons might come back to the rest as the season goes on.

NFL Week 9 Saints @ Panthers Recap

02 Sunday Nov 2014

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This week I am trying an experiment as once again I’m struggling to find the two hours it takes me to go through the coaching tape of an entire game, so I am going to try pick out a few points of interest as I break down the game.

The things that I set out to watch before the season for these teams were the play of Drew Brees and Marques Colston for the Saints, whilst for the Panthers I wanted to take a look at Luke Kuechly and the rebuilt offensive line and receiver corp.

The game actually started very tightly thanks to a Drew Brees interception after a pass on third and six at the Carolina thirteen yard line bounced up from Kenny Stills’ hands and into the waiting arms of defensive tackle Dwan Edwards, creating both a turnover and loss of points for the Saints. On the very next Saints possession, Drew Brees was sacked by Charles Johnson, fumbling the ball as fullback Erik Lorig was driven into him, this resulted in a second turnover for the Saints in the first quarter. However, these would be the Saints only turnover in the game and after this difficult first quarter where they were held scoreless, the Saints would pull away from the Panthers for the rest of the game.

One of the major things to strike me in this game was about the Panthers’ offence, but it was not to do with the offensive line or receivers as I had written before the season. There are issues with the Panthers o-line, but what really struck me was the play of Cam Newton. There were good things, he repeatedly was able to escape the pocket and run to pick up first downs in late downs. However, the concerning thing for me was the way that he was throwing the ball. The stat line does look bad, ten of twenty-eight for 151 yards and an interception, but it was the way he threw for them was what troubled me. There is no doubting his physical talent, but there is more playing the quarterback that having a strong arm and this game highlights this. There seemed to be one setting for Newton in this game, throw the ball as hard as you can, and it simply was not getting the job done. We have seen the benefits of have a strong arm in that you can fit the ball into windows that other quarterbacks can’t, but this can lead to problems if you throw into coverage and there were a lot of balls batted down in this game. But on top of that, there were several deep balls that were thrown without touch, that were a yard or worse overthrown. The Saints were playing good defence, looking more like the team we expected them to be, but Cam Newton did play into the traps the Saints were setting and he needs to work on his delivery of the ball if this game is anything to go by.

On the other side of the ball, I was impressed with the physicality of the Panthers front seven who followed up week eight’s outhitting of the Seahawks defence with another strong showing. However, it will surprise few that their secondary struggled, and frequently the Saints receivers were able to find space to operate. Drew Brees was able to throw for nearly three hundred yards despite getting sacked four times and a game plan that had them committed to the run from the first quarter. The Saints’ Mark Ingram may have got his hundred yard game from thirty carries at a pedestrian three an a third yards per carry, but it was clearly part of the Saints game plan to challenge the Panthers defence in this way.

When I first watched this game I was impressed with the way that Luke Kuechly was always around the ball at the end of the game. It can be hard to judge raw pace at times when watching NFL games unless players are in flat out foot race, but it looks to me that Kuechly plays fast, a phrase you often hear around draft time. He also looks to have a knack of shedding blocks or not getting engaged so he can be in on the play. The tackle stat can be tricky as it is not an official one and seems to be counted in different ways across the various press boxes, but he’s always around the ball and is clearly a quality player.

The trouble I have with my plan to look at the Saints players that I chose is that it is not always easy to pick out particular receivers in a play. Often it requires several viewings so you can identify them and then watch on the all twenty-two to see what happened on the play. This is a particular problem for my plan to look at Marques Colston as I’m interested in him due to a quote I heard in the offseason, where Brady Quinn described how he would run routes like a quarterback would. However, without knowing the calls it is hard to evaluate this, and the Saints line up their receivers all over the field so it is not like trying to find AJ Green in a Bengals formation. He had three catches for thirty-six yards in this game, the best of which was his first one in the opening corner where he caught a back shoulder throw for twenty-two yards. The impressive thing for me on this play was the timing of the throw from Brees, as Colston was lined up inside another Saints receiver that I cannot identify from the tape, he runs a fade out type pattern that goes beyond the outside receiver’s stop route and gets very close to the outside corner, he’s only open because of the throw to the back shoulder. I’m always impressed with the body control of NFL receivers and the ability to turn your body, whilst watching a football into your hands in a helmet that limits your peripheral vision, is not one that should be taken lightly.

Nor is the ability to play quarterback at six feet tall, and Drew Brees looked much more like the player we would expect in this game. His pocket movement is excellent, and whist you won’t see him scrambling for huge yardage gains, it’s clear that he knows how to move round the pocket to get the ball to where he needs to go. He had one passing touchdown that was a simple play to Jimmy Graham one on one, and another rushing touchdown on fourth and goal from the one yard line where he jumps up over the o-line and extends the ball out to cross the plane of the goal line for a touchdown. More importantly though, is that despite the troubles of the first quarter, he completed twenty-four of thirty-four attempts against a defence who were playing well despite their secondary issues.

I will be interested to see how the Saints play over the next few weeks and if they can keep this momentum as they look more like the team that we expected in preseason. As for the Panthers, I know their offence has played better in previous weeks, and the problem for them seems to be that they can’t get good performances out of their offence and defence at the same time. They are playing better that I would have expected in preseason, but it will be interesting how they continue the rebuilding for next season as the o-line and secondary are clearly still issues.