Monthly Archives: November 2016

Thanksgiving Roundup

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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So rather than trying to cover all three games fully I’ll go through the points that leapt out at me over the course of the three Thanksgiving games.

Detriot Lions 16
Minnesota Vikings 13

This was a close game, but throughout it seemed to me that the Lions were moving the ball more consistently on offensive even if they did fall behind in the fourth quarter again. It’s getting to be a feature of the Lions’ season, but once again they managed to come from behind to win.

That said, the Vikings defence is looking back to something like its form from the start of the season, but the offence is still struggling. The loss of receiver Stefon Diggs hurt the Vikings, although it is nice to see Cordarrelle Patterson more on offence, but they still don’t have a running game they can rely on yet and the offensive line is likely going to remain a weakness. I will be curious to see what they do at the end of year in terms of both the line and quarterback, but I expect them to be competitive at least for their remaining games.

The Lions have done enough to lead their division in a down year for the Packers and a very troubled one for the Vikings. The offence continues to get points when they need one, but they are hampered by the defence. I can see them getting into the playoffs, but I think they will struggle against teams like the Seahawks and Cowboys. Still, it seems that everyone, including myself, has had to reassess Matthew Stafford in the wake of his late game heroics this year.

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington 26

The score was a lot closer than the game was thanks to a late surge by Washington in the fourth quarter, but in truth the Giants were able to dominate this game throughout.

That said, there was a period where the Washington defence was doing a credible job of bottling up Ezekiel Elliott, but the problem is that the Cowboys will not be deterred and with the offensive line they have, you may be able to slow Elliott down but it already seems that he will eventually have his way. The Cowboys ran for one hundred and sixty-three yards in this game, with Elliot just shy of one hundred yards on only twenty carries. That kind of number should help him be fresher going into the end of the season, and Dak Prescott picked up a further thirty-nine yards on the ground. The rookie quarterback’s numbers don’t look spectacular, but he continued to drive the Cowboys efficiently and they have the best record in the NFL for a reason.

Washington’s defensive line did looked okay for large parts of this game, but the offence seemed to struggle for sections of this game to keep drives going.  They lost despite dominating time of possession and total yards in this game, but it should be noted that Dustin Hopkins only made two of his four field goals. It is too easy to say that if he had made them that Washington would have won the game, but it would surely have affected the flow of the game and should not be discounted. There is no shame in going to the team with the best record in the league and losing, but Washington will need to get back to winning ways if they want to stay in contention for the playoffs. Still with the way the offence is playing they stand a fighting chance.

Indianapolis Colts 7
Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a very straight forward game for the Steelers, which always looked likely to be the case once Andrew Luck went into the concussion protocol.

The Steelers did not suffer a dip against opposition they should beat as is sometimes the case, and it was very much the Steeler’s triplet show with Le’Veon Bell running for one hundred and twenty yards with a touchdown, and Antonio Brown catching three touchdowns with just under one hundred yards. Ben Roethlisberger may have only thrown for two hundred and twenty-one yards, but with three touchdowns and a seventy percent completion rate I’m sure he will be okay with the performance. Their defence also put in a good shift, and they will be hopeful of keeping pace with the Ravens in the race for the AFC North.

The Colts could get very little going, and their solitary touchdown owes much to a fake punt play that went for thirty-five yards when punter Pat McAfee completed his pass to Erik Swoope. Although the Colts recorded ninety-one yards from twenty-one rush attempts, this masks Frank Gore’s fifteen carries that yielded only twenty-eight yards. In a game with a career backup starting, the Colts needed more help from their run game to balance their offence and didn’t get it. I didn’t think that Scott Tolzien looked terrible, but he threw several balls high as well as two interceptions chasing a game that the Colts were never really in. I’m sure everyone in Indianapolis will be keeping their fingers crossed that Andrew Luck can make a quick return.

 

Overall we had two competitive games, and one complete blowout, but I enjoyed all three, even if I didn’t spend all day watching them with a huge meal to keep me going.

Week Twelve Picks

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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For the first time this season Dan has taken a lead going into week twelve, so I will have to see if I can catch up with him

Gee:      Week 11   8-6                     Overall   73-88
Dan:       Week 11   9-5                     Overall   74-87

Cardinals @ Falcons (-4.5)

The Cardinals are coming off a loss to the Vikings, and are on the road in Atlanta against an up and down but rested Falcons team. The Falcons offence has struggled a little bit with injuries and so has slipped to number two in the league by DVOA, but I think they have more than enough to beat a Cardinals team that are just not right this year. The defence of the Cardinals gives me some pause over this line, but things are just not quite there for them this year and I think the Falcons get back on track at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Jaguars @ Bills (-6.5)

I think that the Bills will win this game, but I am trying to work out by how much. Most of their wins this season have been by big margins, but they squeaked past the Bengals last week. It appears that LeSean McCoy will play this week despite thumb surgery, but I think I’m going to back the Jaguars to cover this line on the road, which could be a huge mistake!

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Titans @ Bears (+3.5)

There are too many injuries in Chicago for the Bears to make a strong finish to the season, particularly with Matt Barkley starting at quarterback. It might make fans of the Titans nervous as they seemingly lose every time I back their team, but I can only see this game going one way.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Bengals @ Ravens (-4.5)

The Bengals could cover this line as they’ve kept most games close this season, but the loss of both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard is likely the death knell for the offence turning things round this year. The Ravens are not great on offence, but they have once again built a tough defence and I think they will grind this one out at home. As ever when picking against the Bengals, I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Giants @ Browns (+7.5)

I said on the podcast that the Browns would not lose all their remaining games, and I still think that is more likely than not, but I wouldn’t know when to pick them winning and I shan’t be doing so against a Giants team that seemingly seems to be finding their way on defence to complement an offence that keeps doing enough to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Rams @ Saints (-6.5)

So in shock news, a rookie quarterback who doesn’t start until week eleven looks like a rookie quarterback when he finally plays. There is more wrong with the LA Rams’ offence than the quarterback, but at least Todd Gurley broke some longer runs last week. However, I was pretty impressed the with Saint’s defensive line in last week’s eventually close loss to the Panthers. The Rams defence has been playing really well this season, but I think the Saint’s run out winners in this one at home. The points however make me really nervous, but in the end I’m backing the Saints to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

49ers @ Dolphins (-7.5)

The Dolphins seem to have come together over the last few weeks, but their identity on offence is being challenged with problems with the injuries to their line. I like the Dolphins to find a way to win, but the points do give me pause, however when it comes down to making this pick I am still not getting enough points to make me back the 49ers on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Chargers @ Texans (-1.5)

I thought Brock Osweiler looked better than I was expecting against the Raiders last week, but he is still on the wrong page with his receivers too often. The Texans defence is looking very good, but I think that Philip Rivers is finding a way with his Chargers team and I believe their respective records would be very different if they swapped divisions.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Seahawks @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

The Seahawks are playing really well, but this is a lot of points. However, with their defence getting back to its best, and Russel Wilson getting healthy enough to find his mobility again I think they will beat an improving Buccaneers team. I thought that Dirk Koetter was struggling at the start of the season, but they do seem to have settled down and beat the Chiefs in Kansas City last week, which is no mean feat. That said, I I’m still backing the Seahawks to cover these points as they round into their typical end of season form.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Panthers @ Raiders (-3.5)

The Panthers got a win against the Saints, but the offence sputtered in the run gain and they were functioning off the back of some key plays by Cam Newton and their defence finding its feet. The loss of Luke Kuechly will really hurt their defence though, and the Raiders have the offensive line to cope with their improving pass rush. I like the Raiders to cover this one despite the short week.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Patriots @ Jets (+7.5)

The Patriots struggled a little against the 49ers, but still nearly beat them by the fourteen points they needed to cover. I can’t see them letting up in a divisional game, and with all that has gone wrong for the Jets this season I see this going one way.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Chiefs @ Broncos (-3.5)

The last two games give me real pause, particularly in this one with the Broncos coming off a bye. I really like the Chiefs, but it looks as if the Broncos defence will be that much healthier after the bye and given the Chiefs recent struggles on offence and the always difficult trip to Denver I think the Chiefs will struggle. So despite the extra half point making me nervous I’m going to back the Broncos to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Packers @ Eagles (-3.5)

The Packers have really struggled this season and in particular over the last couple of weeks. I’m not sure the Eagles have the receivers to hurt the Packers troubled secondary, but I like their defence and I have more faith in them right this second so I am reluctantly backing the Eagles despite them needing to win by four to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 33

24 Thursday Nov 2016

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It’s Thanksgiving this week, and we’re giving thanks for all of the great Football games we’ve been able to watch over the last couple of weeks… Dan’s definitely thankful for the Dolphins current run of form! This week, we’re talking about Colin Kaepernick and his charity donations and analyse exactly what on earth is going wrong for the Green Bay Packers! Also, all the best action from Week 11, and our picks for Week 12, all here this week on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 33

Being Thankfull

24 Thursday Nov 2016

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Well 2016 has been an eventful year to say the least, and on this American holiday of Thanksgiving I thought I’d try to find a few things to be thankful for the NFL.

The obvious place to start given the turmoil of this year is the distraction that sport provides. I’ve written before that I don’t see getting away from the world as a bad thing. Sport gives us an escape, whilst at times teaching us things that are useful in life, particularly when participating.

Football is a sport that relies heavily on team work, cooperation, and personal responsibility as if you stop playing within your team’s system then you are going to hurt your team. It’s not a bad reminder that personal responsibility and social solutions are not mutually exclusive, despite what some politicians on both the right and left would say.

The Bengals are having a tough year, and the search for an end to the league’s longest playoff win drought doesn’t look to be stopping this season, but I’m still grateful for the sight of Geno Atkins causing trouble to offences, one of the best colour rush uninforms of the year, and the painful reminder that nothing in the NFL is guaranteed.

For all the NFLUK’s marketing of Jay Ajayi as London’s Jay Ajayi, I’m enjoying Dan having a player to hang his hat on, and whilst I was worried that Adam Gase could struggle despite being an excellent coach given the roster he had been handed, with a chance of making the playoffs and at least being relevant he looks to be turning things round. Although perhaps I should have let Dan play the funeral march in an attempt to revive the Bengals’ season.

It hasn’t happened yet, but I am incredibly thankful that this year’s playoff games won’t be blacked out on Gamepass as it will make the logistics of covering and watching all the games so much easier.

I’m thankful that despite having a terrible season of picking games, I’m on a game behind Dan and on yet another short week I shall turn to tonight’s games, which I am really looking forward to!

Vikings @ Lions (-2.5)

The Vikings are coming off a their first win in five games, as they travel to Detroit to play the Lions in a game that will put one team at the top of the NFC North. The Cardinals are a struggling team right now, but a win is a win as far as the Vikings are concerned. However, we perhaps shouldn’t get carried away as the Vikings had a one hundred yard interception return for a touchdown and a one hundred and four yard kickoff return and still only won by six points. The defence looked more like itself, but still gave up twenty-four points, whilst the offence still looks to be struggling. The Lions meanwhile managed to be behind in the fourth quarter again, this time to the awful Jaguars, but did enough to win the game. There can’t have been too many time that the Lions were playing for the division lead in their tradition Thanksgiving game, but I fancy them to do enough at home against the Vikings.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Washington @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Cowboys are having a phenomenal season and look to be amongst the elite of the NFC, but Washington are no slouches and so this seems like a surprisingly large line. I would expect the Cowboys to win, and I’m not saying they can’t cover this line, but with Washington’s offence playing as well as it is at the moment, I think they are more likely to cover this line than not, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Steelers @ Colts (+7.5)

I am nervous about this line as the Colts are at home and the Steelers didn’t exactly blow out the Browns in their last game. However, whilst I might have been tempted had Andrew Luck been fit, the fact that Scott Tolzein is the starting quarterback with Luck in concussion protocol pushes me to pick the Steelers. Their offence could absolutely find its way again as it still has a terrifying array of talent as well as playing in the dome tonight, but the Steelers need to keep the pressure on in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

AAF: Joe Thomas

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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So this week’s amateur adventure in film was inspired by the block ‘em up podcast where Geoff and Duke selected Joe Thomas as their all NFL left tackle through the first half of the season, and then I watched him get beat for a couple of key plays in that week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. There is a thin line between success and failure and so having spotted those plays last week, I wanted to take a closer look at Thomas for the whole game.

I have watched Thomas before, and the thing that struck me then was his balance, and whilst I’m not expert on line play, he always seemed to be in control. For most of the game in Baltimore, Thomas was indeed in control. He is not the kind of lineman that is constantly flattening opposing players in the run game, but he seals his player up very effective in the run game, and he still looks balanced in the pass game.

It is interesting to me that the Browns seem to use run style blocking on passing plays without any play-action motion from quarterback quite a lot, and I don’t remember seeing that from other teams before. Perhaps I should be paying more attention.

However, for most of the game Joe Thomas seemed in control of his man whilst pass blocking, occasionally getting help from left guard Spencer Drango, but for most of the time he was asked to matchup man to man and usually he was up to the job.

The problem seemed to come however when he was matched up against Terrell Suggs, as unlike when blocking someone like Za’Darious Smith, there were multiple occasions when Suggs was able to get round Thomas and affect the play. There were two occasions where this really made the Browns pay.

In the third quarter Suggs was able to get round Thomas and get a piece of Josh McCown’s arm as he threw the ball and his pass was intercepted.

In the fourth quarter, getting round Thomas again he was able to knock the ball out of McCown’s hand and recover the football.

These were the major plays, but there were a couple more where Suggs was able to get round Thomas but couldn’t make the play. On all of these plays, some combination of Suggs speed and angle meant that Thomas was reaching and not able to stay in front of Suggs. Let’s not forget that Terrell Suggs has been an effective pass rusher and quality player so it should not surprise that he represented the major challenge that Thomas would face in this game.

For the majority of the game though, Thomas looked good, but such are the margins in the NFL, and particularly for a tackle, that it only takes perhaps a handful of plays that are not quite right for your quarterback to have a bad day. What I don’t know, is the line calls, whether the ball should have been out of the quarterback’s hand earlier. From the rest of his play you wouldn’t say that Thomas is a declining player, and I’m certainly not going to disagree with NFL lineman when they say that Thomas is as good as anyone in the league. However, on a short week as part of a bad team, a handful of eventful plays can catch the eye, and certainly Joe Thomas deserves to have played on better teams than he has, but the Browns show signs they could take real steps if they stick with the plan, and I don’t think Joe Thomas is going anywhere in the near future.

Saints @ Panthers

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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Carolina Panthers 23
New Orleans Saints 20

This was as good a Thursday night game as we have had in a while in that what started off as a very one sided game ended up with an exciting finish thanks to a late surge by the Saints and the Panthers struggling towards the end of the game.

The Panthers offence was up and down for most of the game as they struggled to make any headway in the run game and so were often forced to pass the ball with mixed success. The run game was particularly bad as Cam Newton, Jonathan Steward, and Ted Ginn all had runs of ten yards or more, and yet the Panthers managed a paltry fifty yards in total. Jonathan Stewart’s eighteen carries for thirty-one yards looks particularly anaemic, although these numbers will have been hurt by a dangerous attempt to run out the clock that nearly cost the Panthers the game in the fourth quarter. Cam Newton managed not to turn the ball over, but he completed less that fifty percent of his passes, but did manage to connect up with Ted Ginn for a forty yard touchdown thanks to a great catch at the back of the end zone at the end of the second quarter. This game could have been won a lot more easily if the Panthers had kept playing offence into the fourth quarter, but the offensive line struggled a lot throughout the game and the attempts to run out the clock just did not work.

The Saints defence played better than I was expecting, and whilst I knew it had taken some steps forward since the start of the season, I was not expecting them to cause as many problems for the Panthers as they did. The real star of the show was the Saints front seven who effectively shut down the Panthers running game, as well as getting two sacks and seven quarterback hits. In fact they hurried Newton several times, with Dannell Ellerbe coming up with four tackles, a sack, and two quarterback hits. The Panthers’ struggles in the passing game were as much to do with Cam Newton’s accuracy as coverage, but the pressure he was under was surely a factor and re-enforces the old maxim that good coverage helps create pass rush, and pass rush helps create good coverage.

The Saints offence had a harder time scoring than the Panthers for much of the game, but they actually out-gained the Panthers by nearly one hundred and fifty yards. That said, part of that seemed to be that their running game improved when Mark Ingram went out of the game in the third quarter and Tim Hightower came into the game. Hightower amassed sixty-nine yards on just twelve carries including a long of twenty-seven yards. The Panthers were able to pressure Drew Brees who was sacked three times and hit a further four times, but he threw for over two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns with only one interceptions. Rookie receiver Michael Thomas led the team with five catches for sixty-eight yards, but Brees had nine different players catch balls as he distributed the ball with characteristic skill, but in the end it wasn’t enough.

The Panthers defence has been better since the bye, the front seven coming back to form as their very young secondary came together. They struggled later in this game, with 6ft 6 Brandon Coleman catching the Saints’ first touchdown over 5ft 9 Robert McClain with Leonard Johnson having gone out of the game. However, the real worry for the Panthers will be Luke Kuechly who left the game sobbing in the fourth quarter and who is once more in the concussion protocol. Their leading tackler missed three games last season to a concussion, and whilst Friday’s Instagram picture with a smiling Kuechly may give hope to some, you have to be worry about how much more football he should play. As fantastic a player as Kuechly is, and I have been very bullish on my praise in the past, the troublesome nature of head injuries in football and the position he plays means it may be time for him to seriously consider his career.

This was a tight game that should have been a highlight of the Thursday night schedule, but with two players now in the concussion protocol the gloss has come off the game. As much as I love football, we cannot and should not ignore what can happen to players, and I just hope that both players make a full recovery and listen to their doctors.

Week Eleven Picks

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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Last week was something of a disaster picking wise, which leaves Dan and me level again going into week eleven.

Gee:      Week 10   4-10                   Overall   65-82
Dan:      Week 10   9-5                     Overall   65-82

Bills @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals have not been able to pull things together this season, but they are playing at home in Cincinnati for the first time in three weeks and that was the last time they won a game. They may get back on track against a Bills team who are themselves having an up and down season, but I’m not picking them to win by four until I see a better performance all round. I would be very happy to be proved wrong about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Giants (-7.5)

The injuries are piling up for Bears on the offensive line, Alshon Jeffery is on a four game suspension for breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy, and they are on the road. This is a big line, but things do seem to be coming together for the Giants on both sides of the ball and so I’m picking them to cover this line, albeit somewhat nervously.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns lost badly against the Ravens, and this week welcome the Steelers to Cleveland. Part of me wants to pick the Browns to cover as the Steelers have a habit of dropping games on the road against teams they shouldn’t, but the Steelers need this one too badly if they are to stay in the playoff hunt and having only narrowly lost to the Cowboys last week, I think they take care of business against the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Ravens @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Ravens have a good defence, and their offence did enough in the second half against the Browns last week despite being ranked dead last by DVOA, but they are on the road against a Cowboys team that are rolling. The Cowboys’ offence is what everybody is talking about, but the defence is playing much better than I thought they would and I think the Cowboys will keep things rolling this week at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Jaguars @ Lions (-6.5)

The Jaguars cannot get out of their own way thanks to the poor starts, but whilst I think the Lions will win this game, I am not picking them to win by seven against a team that seems to be experts at garbage time scores and covering the spread. I might regret this one, but Jaguars to cover in another losing effort.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Colts (-2.5)

I’m really nervous about this one as I keep thinking the Titans have got a statement win so I pick them, and it then goes wrong. However, I think this week on the road they really should beat the Colts if they want to compete in the division and having thumped Green Bay last week, I’m placing my faith in what I think is the better team this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Buccaneers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs should win this game as that is what they do, but I don’t see them winning by eight given the injuries they have on offence. I expect them to win a close game as that’s what they do, but the Bucs have shown enough that I don’t think they will lose by eight.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Cardinals @ Vikings (-0.5)

It seems strange to keep picking against the Vikings as I have a lot of faith in Mike Zimmer, and Dan is backing the Vikings to turn things around at home. However, as much as they are struggling on offence thanks to Carson Palmer’s wayward form, they have David Johnson and a tough defence, which despite making a meal of things against the 49ers last week, will have enough to defeat a Vikings team whose offensive line problems are preventing them from competing.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Dolphins @ Rams (+0.5)

So Jared Goff is now ready, and will be watched by many as the overall first pick makes his first start. What the Rams’ defence must make of the continuing problems on the other side of the ball I don’t know, but I am intrigued to see the rookie play. However, given the recent run of form, I’m not making the mistake of picking against the Dolphins on the road again, and having watched them beat the Chargers last week, I think they complete their west coast stay with a second win.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Patriots @ 49ers (+13.5)

This is a horrible line, which is what they are meant to be, but having been bitten by last week’s points when I backed the Patriots to beat Seattle by a lot, I’m not picking them again this week. I can totally see Brady playing lights out and destroying his boyhood team who didn’t give him a workout and beating this line, but I’m not going to pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Eagles @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as I think it will be a cracker. I have so much respect for what the Seahawks did in travelling to New England on a short week and getting the win, but I don’t see them winning this one by seven. The Eagles got their own win last week, and with a better run game plus a defence that has played well and matches up a really good defensive line against an improving but still not stellar Seattle offensive line, the Eagles should make this a real contest. Russel Wilson looks mobile again, and the Seahawks are rounding into form towards the end of the season as usual so they may well win it, but as I said, I don’t see it being by seven.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Packers @ Washington (-2.5)

I picked the Packers last week as I had that lingering faith in Aaron Rodgers, but there is definitely a serious problem in Green Bay and a road trip to Washington is not exactly the game you would be looking for having lost badly to the improving Titans the previous week. I thought that the suspension of left tackle Trent Williams would really hurt Washington, but they managed to get another ugly win, which is what this team seems to do and I’m thinking they will do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Raiders (-6.5)

So Monday night football goes to Mexico and gives us a London style home game for the Raiders that pits their exciting offence against a Texans’ defence that is just outside of the top ten by DVOA. However, I am liking what I have seen out of the Raiders this year and their defence does seem to have picked up in the last couple of weeks, and so with them facing an offence that is hampered by the struggles of Brock Osweiler this season, I think they will win out handily in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

A Return to Form

17 Thursday Nov 2016

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So the games of week ten were as good as my picks were awful!

One of the reasons suggested for the NFL’s falling ratings has been the quality of the games, particularly in the nationally televised games, but we had a series of close and eventful finishes and probably the game of the season in the Sunday night prime time slot with the Seattle Seahawks beating the New England Patriots in a back and forth game that had seven lead changes. This followed and equally back and forth game between the Cowboys and Steelers that featured three touchdowns in the last two minutes.

The New Orleans Saints must have thought they had won the game when Drew Brees somehow found Brandin Cooks in the end zone despite being covered by two Broncos’ players. However, the resulting extra point was blocked by rookie safety Justin Simmons who vaulted the long snapper Justin Drescher with the help of Jared Crick who made sure that Drescher couldn’t stand up and make contact with Simmons by pushing him down. The NFL has later confirmed that as this was an open handed push it was legal. If Simmons’s block wasn’t enough though, another rookie safety in Will Parks scooped up the ball and ran it back to the end zone for a two point defensive score that gave the Broncos the lead before receiving the ball and holding on for the win. Such are the margins that games turn on in the NFL, although the Saints will likely feel aggrieved as with no definitive view of Parks who likely stepped out of bounds during the return, the return stood. It is very possible that this play would have been overturned if Parks had been wearing black boots, but it is too late now. Still, it is yet another dramatic ending for a really good slate of games over the weekend and we will likely see similar leaping block attempts in crucial field goals/extra points at the end of games, with the same manoeuvre executed on the poor long snapper who can’t do much to defend himself in that position.

The fine margins that separate winning and losing are not always so obvious, but the differences between good and average teams are not always that big. This season seems to have a particular large sample of so-so teams, with it seems everybody agreeing that the Patriots, Cowboys, and Seahawks are looking dangerous, a mass of teams with one or two potential contenders for post season success, and then likes of the Browns and 49ers vying for the first pick in next year’s draft.

The Bengals could be seen as a microcosm of this in that their 3-5-1 record is pretty awful, but they are only two games out in the surprisingly poor AFC North. They are not actually a bad team, but they seem to have been doomed by too many changes at once and things won’t quite come together. Whether certain parts of the team just got too old at the same time I don’t know, but most would consider the roster to be one of the most talented in the league. However, there have been so many changes with a new offensive coordinator and several new postition coaches on defence, and nothing has looked quite right. The lack of consistency is what is hampering the Bengals and those who have been calling for Marvin Lewis to be fired are unlikely to be quietened by anything other than a major turnaround in the second half of the season and post season success.

There are so many moving parts in an NFL franchise, that playing within a structure that is supposed to promote parity, it hardly a surprise that it is hard to be consistently good. Only the very best and worst are standing out at the moment, but whilst you will frequently hear people questioning decisions, you also frequently hear criticisms of such and such is a bad coach, and I’m not always sure that is fair.

In some corners of the NFL coverage you will frequently hear disparaging comments about Andy Reid’s clock management, and these are not entirely without merit, however as demonstrated by their come back on Sunday, even when the Chiefs fall into a hall the players believe in Reid and keep playing. He has won an awful lot of football games, and there is a lot more to being a head coach that clock management. If you get a chance, listen to Ron Riviera talking on this week’s Peter King podcast to get a flavour of what the coaches are going through. I do sometime feel that coaches are wedded to the way they were brought up in football, but there is a constant search for the next small advantage that could turn a game and we don’t always get to see or hear about them.

In a changing game with so much variation from season to season, the sustained success of the Patriots and Seahawks are all the more remarkable, and whilst there is a lot to take from the recent string of Bengals success, they still haven’t won a playoff game since 1990, the longest in the league. In a results based world like the NFL, people’s jobs are tied to very variable results and this does not always lead to better results, but with the seasons that the Bengals are having, much like the Packers who are a team who also have a history of patience with coaches, change could be in the air at the end of the season. There is still over a quarter of the season to go, but things are getting serious now so let’s see what happens.

 

Saints @ Panthers (-3.5)

I got bitten by the line last week, but whilst the Saints are a better team than the Browns, and have a better record than the Panthers, the Panthers played well for long stretches against the Kansas City Chiefs and have looked a lot more like themselves in recent weeks. It may be too late for a playoff push, but I’m not picking against them at home in this Thursday night game.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:         Panthers

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 32

17 Thursday Nov 2016

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What a week of games Week 10 turned out to be! We’ve watched some of the best games of the week to give our opinions on goings on in and around the NFL. Also, Tony Romo sounds like he might be calling it a day with the Cowboys, and we take a look at just what is going on with the Kickers of the NFL this season! It’s heating up in the pick’em competition too – has Dan taken the lead? Tune in to (maybe) find out!!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 32

Week Ten Picks

13 Sunday Nov 2016

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A strange week all round, but here are our week ten picks.

Gee:      Week 9   8-5                       Overall   61-72
Dan:       Week 9   7-6                       Overall   56-77

Falcons @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles started strongly, but they have fallen back in recent weeks and face a tough test in this game as the Falcons come to Philadelphia with their league leading offence. The Eagles stand atop of the overall DVOA rankings thanks to a big win against the Steelers and some close losses, but whilst their offence continues to struggle I think they will find it hard to keep up with the Falcons in this one, even if Wentz did lead a comeback against the Giants last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bears @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

I like the Bears in this game as their defence seems to be coming together in the front seven, and the Buccaneeers are really struggling. It worries me that the Bucs have lost their four home games this season as you can’t see this team losing all their home games having won three on the road, but things do not seem to be coming together, and Jameis Winston doesn’t seem to have taken the step forward that I though he had after their first game. Partly this could be to do with the lack of running game on their offence, but I see them losing this one despite the Bears own problems this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Broncos @ Saints (-1.5)

The real problem for the Broncos would be a combination of their lack of running game and the small cracks that have appeared in their defence. The injury to CJ Anderson seems to have broken the Broncos run game, and whilst Trevor Siemian looked good managing the offence when it was based around the run, he has struggled to carry the team. Meanwhile, on defence the injury to Aqib Talib has hurt their coverage and they struggled to stop the run against the Raiders last week. The Saints offence has looked good all year, and while most teams can run on the 49ers as the Saints did last week, I like the look of both Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower and I struggle to see the Broncos as currently constructed keeping up with the Saints offence at home. I would have not picked this game like this a few weeks ago, but I like the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Packers @ Titans (+2.5)

This is a rare narrative pick for me, as whilst I could see the Titans doing something at home given how they have played this year, and the Packers undoubtedly have problems, I can’t quite pick the Titans to win. The Packers have shown glimpses of themselves during the season, but have been unable to get things going consistently. However, after last week’s flat performance and all the talk after it, I can’t see them playing that way again.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are looking much more like themselves over the past couple of weeks, but they are still a 3-5 team welcoming a very good Chiefs team who have a 6-2 record this season. The Chiefs may not be an exciting team to many, but they win a lot of games and I think they are the better team even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Rams @ Jets (-1.5)

The LA Rams are something of a mess, which goes deeper than just their first overall pick quarterback not being ready to play yet, even if that is what most people are talking about. The Jets are not exactly a great team themselves, but as the home team I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Vikings @ Washington (-2.5)

Washington are coming off a bye and look to be shaping up well although they are going to really miss left tackle Trent Williams as he starts his four game ban for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. However, whilst this make me nervous as I have been really impressed with the Washington Line, the Vikings seasons seems to be coming undone as the injuries seem to have it critical mass on offence whilst the defence isn’t quite playing up to the standards it set earlier in the season. Time will tell if new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur can turn things round, but having lost to the Lions last week at home in a game they really should have seen out for a win, I’m not backing them against a rested Washington team playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

This is a straight forward pick as although I don’t like the Texans much due to the problems they are having on offence, they should still have enough to beat a Jaguars team who are having one of the most disappointing seasons in the league.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Dolphins @ Chargers (-3.5)

This should be a really great game as the Dolphins pit their improved offensive line and three game winning streak against a Chargers team who are playing better than their record would suggest. After the horrible run of bad losses at the start of the year, the Chargers defence looks to be coming together and you always have a chance with Philip Rivers at quarterback, plus with the Dolphins travelling all the way to San Diego I am backing the Chargers to win. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Cowboys @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Cowboys are a really good team, and I can easily see them winning this game, but I doubt they are going to go through the rest of the season without winning and the Steelers really need this game. Now that Ben Roethlisberger has his first game back under his belt, they really need to get things back on track if they are not going to slip too far behind the Ravens in the AFC North. There is too much talent on the Steelers’ offence to be down for the rest of the season and I think they get back on track this week. Or I could be proved very wrong, but I think this is a good spot for the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

49ers @ Cardinals (-13.5)

This line is huge, but the 49ers run defence is truly abysmal and David Johnson is up there with the best running backs in the game and so I’m placing my faith in him and Bruce Arians’ staff. The Cardinals’ defence is playing really well this year, and I think they have too much for the 49ers although it is nice to see some signs in last week’s game that Colin Kaepernick is getting back to being a good quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Seahawks @ Patriots (-7.5)

This should be a great game, but the Seahawks have played a series of tough games that relied on extensive play by their excellent defence, whilst the Patriots are coming of a bye week. The Seahawks are one of the few teams that can play with the Patriots when they are at their best, but in this particular game with Tom Brady playing so well I see this being the wrong time for the Seahawks to be playing them in New England.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Bengals @ Giants (-2.5)

Oh how this game scares me. The Bengals need to get things back on track fast, and although it was good to see Tyler Eifert back and playing well in London, there is not a lot of room for manoeuvre if the men in stripes want to get back to the playoffs. I still don’t have a handle on the Giants, but with a run of three wins and two passing rushing ends that could trouble an offensive line that has not been good this season, I’m kind of nervously hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals