We did it in different ways, but both Dan and I went 2-1 with the Thanksgiving day games and now our attention turns to the rest of the week twelve slate.

Early Games:

The game that leaps out of this list is the Titans welcoming the Bengals back to Nashville and likely have revenge on their mind given the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs on their way to the Super Bowl. The Bengals have turned a corner on offence in recent weeks, but also have injuries and whilst they may not give up nine sacks like they did in January, I do not have a huge amount of confidence going into this game and with the Titans getting points at home I feel I have to take the points and hope to be proved wrong.

Other than that it will be interesting to see what Mike White can do as the starter for the Jets, and the Broncos have to be hoping they can do something against the lowly Panthers

Buccaneers @ Browns (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Bengals @ Titans (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Texans @ Dolphins (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Bears @ Jets (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Falcons @ Washington (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Broncos @ Panthers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Ravens @ Jaguars (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Late Games:

This is a strange slate of games given the Chargers have been struggling, but look to be in a better place that the Cardinals, no one trusts the Raiders, and the Rams are flat out bad this year. The 49ers are rounding into form and are taking on a Saints team who just have not looked good this season, making their all-in off-season moves even more questionable.

Chargers @ Cardinals (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Raiders @ Seahawks (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Rams @ Chiefs (-14.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Saints @ 49ers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ Eagles (-7.5)

It turns out that Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb in week five, and that surely can’t have helped but I don’t know if it explains all of the Packers woes this season. Given their respective form and the numbers I am going with the Packers to stick within a touchdown of the Eagles, but this is one where I’m having to trust the process given how both teams have played this season and I don’t feel confident in the selection.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Monday Night Football

Steelers @ Colts (-2.5)

This is an odd game where I really don’t want anything to do with the number, and one I’ll see if I can watch given that Jeff Saturday is 2-0 despite his lack of higher-level coaching experience before taking over the Colts two weeks ago. Still, the Steelers have some players back and did well for large stretches against the Bengals last week and so whilst I don’t have strong feelings either way, I’m leaning to the Steelers a little with no strong number to go on.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

So after a feast of Thanksgiving football where I started the week 3-0 we turn to the weekend’s games and the rest of week twelve.

Early Games:

There are a few tasty contests this week, and I could have gone in a couple of directions in the early slate, but I have settled on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Colts in Indianapolis as the pick of the games. The Colts had a rough 0-3 start to the season before ripping off six wins and two overtime losses to drag themselves into the playoff hunt, but this week will be real test. I will be interested to see if Jonathan Taylor can maintain his incredible sequence of rushing games against the Buccaneers’ front seven. As for the Bucs, they got over their two-game wobble with a solid win last week against the Giants but it feels like we’re not going to really learn anything about them until the playoffs, although this should be an interesting test.

Points from the rest:

• The Steelers visit to the Bengals will be a physical affair, and as happy as I was to see the Bengals get a good win against the Raiders last week, the score flattered, and I have a feeling the game will be closer than this line suggests.
• The Dolphins have won three straight and welcome a Panthers team who are still integrating Cam Newton after signing him a couple of weeks ago to rescue their season. Newton has sparked the Panthers in a couple of moments, but questions remain about his accuracy throwing the ball so this will be an interesting test.
• The Titans will be hoping that last week’s loss against the Texans was just one of those weeks as the injuries keep piling up but facing a Belichick defence will be a real test of what Ryan Tannehill can do to raise the level of those around him on offence.
• The Eagles have now won three of their last four having found an identity on offence with running the ball. I will be interested to see what Freddie Kitchens can do with the Giants offence as he got his head coaching shot with the Browns after stepping up mid-season after a firing. However, it does feel like the Giants are a long way from a meaningful game at this point of the season.
• The Falcons will be hoping to get over their horrible loss last week against the Jaguars, but they are also rock bottom of the DVOA rankings with all three phases of the game ranked in the thirties.
• The Jets on the road at the Vikings sees two franchises where the coaches and players are only playing for their NFL careers, which is always a sad state of affairs.

Steelers @ Bengals (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Buccaneers @ Colts (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Panthers @ Dolphins (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Titans @ Patriots (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Eagles @ Giants (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Falcons @ Jaguars (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Jets @ Texans (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Late Games:

The Rams coming off a bye will have spent the last two week working on how to operate without receiver Robert Woods and trying to integrate the newly acquired Odell Beckham who has a different set of skills. The Rams lost two straight going into the bye but on offence you would have faith that Sean McVay and his staff will get things figured out eventually. However, they are trying to get back to winning ways against a strong Packers team whose defence has been good enough to win with and whose offence is still top five by DVOA despite injuries. That said, the Packers lost their backup left tackle last week and with David Bakhtiari getting a scope on his reconstructed knee we shall have to see if the offensive line can hold up until Bakhtiari can play.

Points on the Rest:

• After a strong start the Chargers have been up and down in recent weeks and so I am not entirely sure how they will do against a Broncos team who should be able to scheme up the type of defence the Chargers have struggled against in recent weeks.
• The Vikings and 49ers are both trying to fight their way into the wildcard hunt, and neither can really afford a loss this week.

Chargers @ Broncos (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Rams @ Packers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Vikings @ 49ers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Sunday Night Football:

Browns @ Ravens (-4.5)

The AFC North Sunday night matchup will be a bruising affair, but the dirty secret is that no one in the division ranks that highly by DVOA and the Ravens known for their defensive identity are currently ranked twenty-seventh on that side of the ball. It does seem more likely that the Browns will lose this one than win, but this is a lot of points to give a team you are only ranked two place higher than by overall DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Monday Night Football

Seahawks @ Washington (-1.5) 

Neither of these teams are where you might have expected them to be coming into the season. The Washington Football Team have struggled all year, particularly on defence where everyone was excited about how good they could be and yet are currently ranked thirty-first by DVOA. The Seahawks are having their worst season under Pete Carroll, with little chance of stopping themselves having a losing season for the first time since 2011. I don’t know how quarterback Russell Wilson will play this week, but he has struggled since returning from his finger injury and it is hard to have much confidence in what will happen in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

I went two for one in the Thanksgiving games, largely because Amari Cooper scored two breakaway touchdowns for the Cowboys, demonstrating his speed and some poor tackling in Washington’s secondary. So now we roll into the rest of the week twelve games and an enormous game for the Bengals but before all of that, there is this week’s trivia question where somehow I hold a two-point lead over Dan.

‘Moving onto Week 12 this should not prove too taxing and I’d like to know for which college did Peyton Manning play?’

Now, this was one of those questions where when I read it the answer was on the tip of my tongue, but I couldn’t quite remember it. However, leaving it for a couple of days allowed the answer to bubble up to the surface and I believe he played for Tennessee.

‘Having said the other week that I don’t pay any attention to the college game, I think this is one of those bits of information I’ve heard somewhere before and it’s just stuck with me for some reason. I think Payton Manning played college football for the University of Tennessee.’

Jaguars @ Bills (+3.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars leave Florida to head up to a cold Buffalo where the Bills are coming off a bye and look to have Josh Allen coming back from his elbow injury. This does not look to be a great spot for a team with a six game losing streak and if I’m getting this many points with a warm weather team heading into the cold who haven’t been very good I’m going to grab them. I’m not saying the Jaguars can’t win this game, but I kind of fancy the Bills to keep this one within a field goal at list.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Browns @ Bengals (-3.5)

This is a big game for the beleaguered Cincinnati Bengals who managed to keep the game close with the Ravens last week and will be desperate to get back to winning ways against the franchise that carries the name of their founder Paul Brown. The Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye and a win against the Atlanta Falcons and their top defence could very well give a banged up Bengals’ offence problems, particularly with left tackle Cordy Glenn having back issues and Myles Garrett coming to town. It also looks like AJ Green is unlikely to play and suddenly things are looking tricky. I think the Bengals could very well win it, but this feels like a tight game to me and the extra half point has me picking the other way. I would love to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Raiders @ Ravens (-10.5)

The Oakland Raiders got their second win of the season in Arizona last week, but now they have to come all the way across the country to face a Baltimore team that got a spark last week with Lamar Jackson’s first start at quarterback and who is starting again this week due to Joe Flaco’s hip injury. I don’t know if the Ravens are planning another twenty plus carries for their quarterback this week, (Jackson ran the ball twenty-six times against the Bengals last week) but if the Ravens can do enough on offence to complement their tough defence they could make a late push for the playoffs and will at least cause a lot of teams difficulties. I fancy them to win this game at home, but the line does give me a little pause. There is a gulf between these two teams in terms of DVOA ranking and with the Raiders facing a second road game and travelling across the country I don’t expect them to win and I can’t quite bring myself to pick them either.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

Both teams are coming off a bye and the New York Jets were last seen losing by thirty-one points to the Bills, whilst the Patriots lost by twenty-four points to the Titans. This makes this line a tricky one as I know which team I back to bounce back, and the Patriots largely have a history of beating big lines in games they are favoured for but this feels like a lot of points. However, given this is Bill Belichick coming off a bye I’m going to back the Patriots to get right and that time hasn’t finally caught up with Tom Brady, although it has to happen at some point.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Giants @ Eagles (-6.5)

The formula is all wrong for Philadelphia Eagles this season and they have so many injuries in the secondary that I think this line is too big. I don’t expect a repeat of what happened against the Saints last week, but the Eagles have lost three straight home games and welcome a New York Giants team who have won two straight. They have enough options in the passing game to make life difficult for a patched up secondary and with Saquon Barkley hitting holes with power and picking up the hard yards last week, I think the Giants could keep this one within a touchdown. I could be horribly wrong about this.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

49ers @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This is a difficult game to pick thanks to the indifferent form of the San Francisco 49ers who are coming across the country to play a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who have moved the ball on offence but really struggled to do much else, including win after a decent start. I really want to stay away from this game, but in the end I’ll plump for the home team and hope, but it very much feels like a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Panthers (-3.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as it should tell us a lot about a Carolina Panthers team who have wobbled in recent weeks. They face a Seattle Seahawks team who have re-found their formula of defence and running the ball and come into this game with extra rest having beaten the Packers on Thursday night in week eleven. I think this will be a close game and with that extra half point I am going to grab the Seahawks to stay within a field goal but the game could easily go either way.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Cardinals @ Chargers (-12.5)

The LA Chargers dropped a clanger against the Denver Broncos last week but should have more than enough to deal with a woeful Arizona Cardinals team who are really struggling. However, this is a very big line for a team whose home support isn’t that great and it really makes me wonder. However, I think the Chargers will have a point to prove and with the league’s fourth best offence by DVOA going against the thirty-first defence I’m going to worriedly swing for the fences with this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Steelers @ Broncos (+3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their win last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars but it wasn’t exactly pretty and we should remember that Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t look like the same quarterback on the road. The Steelers should have more than enough to deal with the Broncos in Denver as their defence is just not the same as recent years and their offence hasn’t improved that much. The DVOA stats really like Denver though, as in really likes them with an overall ranking of ninth but I have more faith in the Steelers. It is tempting to grab the points, particularly with that important half point over a field goal and in the end, that’s what I’m going to go with but I’m not exactly confident.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Dolphins @ Colts (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are 1-4 on the road this year, but are expected to get Ryan Tannehill back from injury this week, although whether the oft-injured quarterback can make a big difference is somewhat up in the air given how beat up the Dolphins are generally. I have just watched the coaching tape of the Colts’ offence putting up thirty-eight points on the Titans’ defence and despite these two teams having the same 5-5 record, they feel like they are on very different trajectories. The question is though, can the Dolphins make it a tough game and though I’m not ruling it out, the form is so different and the Colts have a quarterback so I’m going to go with the large line again, which likely could make Dan happy if I’m wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Packers @ Vikings (-3.5)

This is a huge game in the NFC North, with the Packers ill able to afford another loss and the Vikings needing the win to stay in contact with the Bears who currently have a three game lead thanks to their Thanksgiving win over the Lions. There seems to be something not quite right with the Vikings this year, both on defence and offence whilst the Packers have been up and down as well. The Vikings have had a real home advantage since moving to their current stadium, but I hate picking against Aaron Rodgers and the extra half point really makes me nervous. In fact it makes me nervous enough that I’m going to pick the Packers, but it would not surprise me if I’m wrong again.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The question of this game is are the Houston Texans a touchdown better than the Tennessee Titans and I’m really not sure I know the answer to that one. The Titans have been so up and down this season and are coming off a big loss to the Colts having beaten the Patriots soundly in week ten, whilst the Texans have won seven straight games to be 7-3. There is a solid gap between these two teams by DVOA ranking and with a defence that seems to have finally got JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney fit at the same time I’m leaning Texans to win but I’m not sure by this much. In the end I don’t feel strongly enough to lay this many points so I’ll nervously grab the Titans.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Sometimes working in IT involves out of hours work even if you’re not supposed to be on support so here’s some hurried picks and hopefully normal services resume next week.

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-8.5)

I think the Atlanta Falcons are the better team and should win this game but I’m not nine points convinced.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bills @ Chiefs (-9.5)

The line worries me as the Kansas City Chiefs have been off in recent weeks but the Buffalo Bills have had no run defence since trading Marcell Darius.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Eagles (-13.5)

This is a huge line but the Chicago Bears are on the road and Philadelphia Eagles have run up big wins against a number of teams and I don’t see that stopping this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Browns @ Bengals (-8.5)

I don’t exactly trust the Cincinnati Bengals to cover this line, but having been bitten by the Cleveland Browns two weeks in a row, they are going to have to prove to me they can cover a line before I pick them again.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Titans @ Colts (+3.5)

The Tennessee Titans have not exactly been convincing in recent weeks, whilst the Indianapolis Colts have been competitive in their last three games despite what I said on the podcast, but in the end the Titans are just going to have too much.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Dolphins @ Patriots (-16.5)

This line is enormous and the Miami Dolphins are undeniably bad, but as good as the New England Patriots are I can’t just pick them to cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Panthers @ Jets (+4.5)

The Carolina Panthers are playing so much better now Cam Newton is running more and the New York Jets have struggled in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Seahawks @ 49ers (+6.5)

I am tempted by the points given the injuries to the Seattle Seahawk’s defence, but in the end the San Francisco 49ers are just too injured and I think the Seahawks have enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Broncos @ Raiders (-5.5)

The Denver Broncos have been undeniably bad, but I’m just not prepared to back the Oakland Raiders to win by six given the way they have been playing recently.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Saints @ Rams (-2.5)

This is a hard one to pick given the LA Rams loss last week, but the New Orleans Saints have picked up some knocks on defence. In the end I’m going to grab the points and look forward to the game.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Jaguars @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have won four straight and I would say they are the better team so despite the points I am backing them to cover against the Arizona Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Packers @ Steelers (-13.5)

With all the injuries to the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers finding their offence last week I can only pick one way despite the line.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Texans @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Baltimore Ravens defence is undeniably good, and their three shut outs have persuaded me that against the Houston Texans they can cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens