29 Thursday Oct 2015
Posted in Podcasts
It’s time for the episode three, where we take a look back at the week seven games, go through the news and our predictions for week eight. There may also be some more singing…
29 Thursday Oct 2015
Posted in Uncategorized
Tags
Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Greg Hardy, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, NFL, Ryan Mallett, Week 8 Picks
We are already approaching the mid-point of the season and yet we still have five unbeaten teams, but this week I want to focus some of the other franchises as there are some curious trends amongst some of the less successful teams.
I wrote after the week four games when the Dolphins fired Joe Philbin that it was unusual to fire coaches mid-season in the NFL. And that certainly used to be the case, although he was the second coach to be fired ahead of a bye week having lost a game in London in the last two seasons. Whilst I am not expecting Rex Ryan to be in trouble yet, Lions Head Coach Jim Caldwell is getting ahead of that possibility after their horrible 1-6 start by firing his offensive coordinator and the two coaches responsible for the offensive line heading into the Lions’ trip to London. As the Dolphins did, the Lions have promoted from within, and I am looking forward to seeing in person what, if any, changes this has on the underperforming Lions offence.
Traditionally, it was always the Monday after the end of the regular season, known as black Monday, when coaches got their marching orders. However, with some teams demonstrating that you can achieve some results with a mid-season switch, it is possible that whilst we won’t see the levels of turnover that has so plagued Premiership football teams over here in the UK, it may become more common to fire head coaches in the NFL and it could be worth tracking certain losing teams as they approach their bye week.
A prime candidate if this sacking of coaches is becoming a more common practice could well be Chuck Pagano of the Indianapolis Colts. They may well currently be the division leader, but they have a losing 3-4 record thanks to their defeat at the hands of the Saints at the weekend. More worryingly, they are visiting the Panthers this weekend and then hosting the Broncos before their week ten bye. There is already talk of discord between owner James Irsay, GM Ryan Grigson, and Pagano. This is perhaps not surprising given that Irsay is sure that he has a franchise quarterback and so must believe they have a championship window, but GM Grigson has not surrounded Andrew Luck with enough good players to win, and whilst this will be a source of some of the friction with Pagano, you only have to look to the fake punt coaching disaster of recent weeks to see that Pagano is hardly blameless either. We will know in a couple of weeks if there is going to be a change, but whilst they have three winnable divisional games left after the bye, time is running out for them to sort the problems in Indianapolis.
So whilst the Lions are firing coaches, and the Colts are at least the centre of a lot of disquiet, other teams are having problems with their talent. I am trying to not become boring on the subject, but I do not think it is a coincidence that apart from having top quality quarterbacks, one of the things that the consistently successful teams have in common is harmony between the front office staff and the coaches. You can’t build a team that wins without having talented players, but it takes more than physical ability to succeed in the NFL. When you are dealing with forty-six players active on game day, plus the rest of the roster and practice squad during the week, you have to have everybody pulling in the same direction. Not everybody on the roster has to be best friends, but there needs to be a mutual respect and a commitment to the work that is required in the NFL. Getting the right players, and keeping them motivated and invested is a vital part of creating a successful team and we have had two high profile incidents that highlight that this week.
I have written about what matters to the Cowboys is production on the field, and to be fair they will put in the extra resources to make this work, which has been successful with Dez Bryant. They even have taken to drafting sensibly in recent years, building themselves one of the top offensive lines in the league through the draft. However, they could not stop themselves from signing free agent Greg Hardy despite the moral argument against adding him to the team. I wrote in the preseason that I was glad that the Bengals showed no interest in Hardy, and this week’s antics demonstrate that even if you are prepared to swallow signing a player with no regard for women, and who is in fact a positive danger towards them, you are also signing up for a whole truck load of extra baggage that goes with his on field production. Apart from missing a practice last week, Hardy watched the Cowboys’ special teams give up a hundred yard kick off return. His reaction was not to offer to play special teams or give some positive encouragement; no he barged into the special teams huddle, slapped away the special teams coach’s clip board and got into a shoving match with him. He later got into a heated discussion with Dez Bryant, a man not unused to side line confrontation, but when Bryant is acting as the voice of reason then you know there is trouble. The only thing that makes this even more bizarre is that Jerry Jones went further than just protecting a team asset after the game when he called Hardy a leader. I don’t understand why you would want this man on your roster, yet alone talking about giving him a contract extension already. I would love to know what the other players actually think of him.
If things are dysfunctional in Dallas, at least they can point to the injuries sustained by their franchise quarterback and top receiver as the cause. The Texans have been woeful this season, and the ongoing quarterback saga took another twist this week. Having missed a practice through over sleeping during training camp, a training camp that was being televised no less. The much talked about Ryan Mallet missed the team’s chartered flight, and to buy his own ticket to get down to Miami. That the Texans released him is not a surprise, nor is it particularly surprising that Bill O’Brien wanted to cut him before the game and that he had to be talked round by Rick Smith into delaying. However, the fact that we know about this is surprising as that disagreement really should have stayed in house. Someone had to leak that, and you have to wonder what their agenda was. This may be it for Ryan Mallet in the league, but given how short of quarterbacks the league is, there may yet be a team out there that will give him a shot in training camp next season, but he would be on very think ice.
If you pay any attention to the scouting of college players, you will no doubt hearing a lot about physical tools, particularly for quarterbacks, but whilst the empirical testing of physical attributes is helpful, there is so much more to being a success in the NFL and it might help if teams paid a little more attention to this.
Moving towards picks, we were much more solid this week, and whilst I maintained my two game lead over Dan, the important thing is that I have a winning record once again. Now onto the week eight picks.
Gee: Week 7 9-5 Overall 54-51
Dan: Week 7 9-5 Overall 52-53
Dolphins @ Patriots (-7.5)
The Patriots are playing very well, but they are wearing down through injury and given how banged up they are on the offensive line, I wonder if they will be able to get to Tom Brady. I don’t think the Dolphins will necessarily win this game, and it will be fascinating to see how Dan Campbell’s team do against Bill Belichick’s game plan, but I’m not expecting a blow out so I’m joining Dan once again on Dolphins Island this week.
Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
Lions @ Chiefs (-5.5)
The final London game of the season, but it is not quite the contest I thought I would be getting when I bought my ticket. The Lions have really struggled and the Chiefs put together some things last week, I don’t feel good about it, but the Chiefs have a number of players I like on defence so I’m backing them and hoping the points don’t bite me.
Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Lions
Buccaneers @ Falcons (-6.5)
The Falcons got back to winning ways last week even if it was ugly. This could be the game for them to get themselves going again against a Buccaneers team going through growing pains with their rookie quarterback, and a defence that has not looked convincing. I can see Gerald McCoy having a field day against the Falcons offensive line, but whilst the Falcons have their flaws, I think they have enough to win and I just hope they cover.
Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons
Vikings @ Bears (+1.5)
The Bears may be better than we first thought, but they are not a good football team and the Vikings are quietly going along nicely at 4-2 this season. I can’t look past them in this game.
Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings
Bengals @ Steelers (+0.5)
This game worries me, but then I always seem to say that about the Bengals. Coming off their bye to play the always awkward Steelers in Heinz Field, and I have this feeling that it’s going to be a close one field goal game like so many in the AFC North. The real problem is that Ben Roethlisberger could well be back for this game, the Steelers offence has terrifying weapons, and their defence has been keeping them in games despite the questions surrounding them. I think the Bengals will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers win at home, but I’m taking a leaf out of Dan’s book for this one and trying to positive. Just don’t ask me about the game on Sunday!
Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals
Cardinals @ Browns (+5.5)
We don’t know who the Browns quarterback is going to be on Sunday, and Josh McCown’s success with the offence is the one thing this Browns team had going for them. I think they may well struggle on offence against the Cardinals opportunistic defence and I think the Cardinals should have enough to win this. I’m a little worried about the Cardinals on the road as I’ve already been bitten by them once already this season when they played the Steelers, but they could have won that game and I’m hoping the Cardinals cover the points in this one.
Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals
Titans @ Texans (-3.5)
This is a horrible pick to have to make as the Texans have been blown out twice this season whilst giving up over forty points. However, the Titans look likely to be without Marcus Mariota again this season and haven’t demonstrated much since their week one win against the Buccaneers, which was the template of their season last year. I’m reluctantly backing the Texans in this one as they are at home, but I don’t feel good about it.
Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans
49ers @ Rams (-8.5)
The 49ers were pretty solid on defence last week, but their offence was awful and visiting the Rams in St Louis is not likely to improve their performance on that side of the ball, particularly given their protection issues. The points give me a slight pause, and I expect the 49ers to have a reaction to their disappointing loss to the Seahawks, but I expect the Rams to win and I can’t bring myself to pick the 49ers to cover.
Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: 49ers
Giants @ Saints (-3.5)
The Saints are coming off a second straight win as they welcome the Giants, but I’m really not sure how much I can trust their improvements. The offence is moving the ball better, there are signs that the defence is coming together, and Sean Payton also worked in a fake field goal last week. Meanwhile, the Giants were outgained last week but got touchdowns in all three phases of the game, although they had to get a one hundred yard kick off return touchdown to win the game. So whilst this is a game that might tell us things about both teams, it’s not one that I’m exactly keen to pick. That said, I’m going to rely on home advantage and stick with the Saints momentum. Worriedly…
Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Giants
Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)
The Ravens season is mired in problems with the passing game on both sides of the ball, and having fallen to the Cardinals last week, welcome a Chargers team who if nothing else can move the ball through the air. However, their defence is not good and it is possible that Justin Forsett who has only flashed this season might be able to take advantage. The problem is that the Ravens have not demonstrated any consistency this season and whilst the Chargers just got beaten by the Raiders, I don’t think that Joe Flacco has the tools to keep up with Rivers and the Chargers offence.
Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers
Jets @ Raiders (+1.5)
The Raiders really have a candidate for offensive rookie of the year in Amari Cooper who has been so good for them, but the Jets are significantly better on defence than the Chargers, whilst the Jets offence is ranked a surprising sixth by DVOA! There is a significant jump to the Steelers ranked fifth, but apart from being able to run the ball, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been getting good production from both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall at receiver. In a game that is near as damn it a flat pick the winner, I’m backing the better team even if they are on the road.
Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets
Seahawks @ Cowboys (+6.5)
The line worries me about this one, but whilst the Cowboys have the tight end in Jason Witten to test the Seahawks ongoing issues with tight ends, the Seahawks are beginning to play much better on defence as they settle in with their new defensive coordinator. I am worried that this is a pick based on my distaste and distrust of what is going in Dallas, but they are also ranked twenty-sixth in DVOA in rush defence and Marshawn Lynch was looking much more like himself last week.
Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks
Packers @ Broncos (+2.5)
The unbeaten record ends for one of these teams this week, and given the problems the Broncos are having on offence I think this is the game where their defence finally can’t do enough to win the game.
Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers
Colts @ Panthers (-6.5)
I’ve written extensively about the Colts earlier in this week’s column, so I’ll simply say that a really good defence and a strong running game is exactly what they don’t need to be facing, especially on the road. I don’t foresee any issues for the Panthers in covering this line, which is probably the kiss of death, so I’ll apologise in advance to the fans in Carolina but I’m backing them anyway in this one.
Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers
25 Sunday Oct 2015
Posted in Amateur Adventures in Film
Tags
Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Gates, Corey Liuget, Green Bay Packers, James Starks, Keenan Allen, Ladarius Green, NFL, Philip Rivers, Richard Rodgers, San Diego Chargers
I decided to look back at the Chargers at Packers game for my week six adventures in film, which was a thoroughly enjoyable experience. Both teams used more just the five linemen formations with their tight ends detached than I remember seeing before, and both teams were more effective on offence than defence. It is hardly a ground breaking insight that this game featured two of the best quarterbacks in the game, but they were impressive in different ways this week.
The only place I can start with in this game is the Chargers offence and the franchise record breaking performance of Phillip Rivers, who threw for five hundred and three yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He accomplished this with forty-three completions from a mammoth sixty-five attempts. The Chargers did a better job of protecting Rivers in this game, but this was because they spent virtually all of the game in shotgun formations allowing Rivers to survey the defence and get the ball out quickly. In the first half they used 12 personnel extensively, with tight ends Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green lining up in various spots as both receivers and tight end. In the second half they moved more to 11 personnel until Keenan Allen injured his ankle nearly ten minutes into the third quarter, when they returned back to 12 personnel. It is remarkable that in only forty minutes of game time, Allen amassed fourteen catches from fifteen targets for one hundred and fifty seven yards. However, Anotnio Gates and Malcom Floyd also chipped in with ninety-five yards each, whilst Danny Woodhead chipped in with sixty-three yards of his own through the air. The Chargers were unable to run the ball effectively through most of the game, so it is not surprising they had such high passing numbers, particularly when they were having so much success.
The Packers defence had been doing better this season, but whilst they stood up in the running game, their pass defence obviously struggled. They were unable to get their pass rush to Rivers in time, only getting three sacks despite generating seventeen QB hits, but Rivers was just getting the ball out too quickly. The coverage also struggled at times, on one play in the second quarter, the Chargers’ slot receiver dragged one of the two deep safties in to cover him, allowing Keenan Allen to catch a huge deep ball having got a step on Sam Shields. On the very next play Allen demonstrated more amazing body control to get two feet down so not all of the passing yards was due to coverage, but you don’t give up this much yardage if you are playing well. Going back to the pass rush, Clay Mathews flashed once as he split the left tackle and left guard, whilst Julius Peppers pressured from the right and having sent five the Packers got the sack as a team, but there were simply not good enough to disrupt Rivers sufficiently.
If the Packers defence really struggled, their offence was good if not as exceptional as you might expect. They used many more personnel groupings than the Chargers, and they were using Richard Rodgers, who is listed as a tight end, all over their formation as both tight end and full back. He may have only caught two balls, but he was heavily involved in their offence, but the real worry for this team is that they are banged up at receiver and the lack of Jordy Nelson is possibly beginning to show. They were able to rack up one hundred and thirty-three yards in the running game, but sixty-five yards of that came from the James Starks’s first quarter touchdown run. However, if you take that run out of the equation they still averaged four yards per carry, but they only ran the ball seventeen times in total. The real problem was that the Packers only had the ball for twenty-two minutes, and Rodgers threw an uncharacteristic sixteen completions form twenty-nine throws, gaining two hundred and fifty-five yards and two touchdowns. Neither team was good in the red zone in this game, which is surprising and tells its own story.
The Chargers defence did better against the pass than they have done in previous weeks, but were not inspiring. They did manage to get three sacks, but did not get a lot of other pressure and the sacks they did get was when they sent five rushers and were able to push the pocket up the middle. That said, defensive linemen Corey Liuget did cause some problems up the middle and was rewarded with a sack. The secondary may have done better in this game, but safety Jahleel Addae over committed to stopping James Starks’s run up the middle and got caught up by the line, which is why Starks was able to break it to the outside and get all the way to the end zone. In fairness it is hard to know how he is coached to play the run in this situation, but no one could get across to the side in time to stop the touchdown.
This was a very entertaining game to watch, and the Chargers came very close to tying the game up at the end of the fourth quarter, marching the ball down the field, but ultimately were unable to punch the ball into the end zone to force the game into overtime. They will do better against lesser opposition, but whilst the Packers may not be as dominant as they looked in the first couple of weeks, they are still unbeaten and look set to be amongst a handful of teams preparing to push deep into the playoffs.t
25 Sunday Oct 2015
Posted in Uncategorized
Tags
Aaron Lynch, Cliff Avril, Colin Kaepernick, Michael Bennett, NFL, Russell Wilson, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks
This game is possibly easier to write up than it was to watch. The 49ers were thoroughly beaten on Thursday night in a game that convincingly demonstrated the offensive line deficiencies of both teams, but the Seahawks looked more like the team we are used to as they ran out 20-3 winners.
Unfortunately for the fans in San Francisco, the 49ers first drive setup a familiar pattern for the rest of the game as they failed to move the ball or get a first down as they went three and out. They would have a further five three and outs in this game and punted the ball a ridiculous nine times. The opening drive included a play where Colin Kaepernick had lots of time in the pocket, and he found Vance McDonald for a yard, but that was the only time in the game that this happened. The protection was awful from the offensive line, and whilst the 49ers were trying to help Kaepernick by the extensive use of play action to provide simple reads, he was sacked six times and was hit a further eight. As a consequence the 49ers were unable to get anything going through the air with only four catches to going to wide receivers, a total matched by Vernon Davis on his own in a stretch where it looked like the 49ers might be able to take advantage of Seattle’s problems against tight ends this season. It was not to be, and combine this with a failure to run the ball or sustain drives at all, and it was all too obvious why they only scored three points.
If the 49ers offence was bad in this game, some credit must go to the Seahawks’ defence which looked a lot more like the frightening unit of recent years. In particular their defensive line was incredibly effective with Michael Bennett and Clif Avril combining for five sacks between them and seven quarterback hits as they terrorised the 49ers o-line and made life miserable for Kaepernick. The legion of boom looked more like their dominant selves, although this was not a stern test and the play of Cary Williams still needs to be monitored. More worrying still for this team is that they came into this game ranked thirty-first by DVOA in pass defence against tight ends, and if they give up six catches for seventy yards to tight ends against this offence, then they are going to continue to have problems. There is still time to turn things round, but this is something I will be keeping an eye on over the coming weeks.
In fairness to the 49ers, their defence looked pretty solid, although losing strong safety Antoine Nethea is going to hurt, but they got pressure of their own and picked off Russell Wilson twice. Some of this was due to the Seahawks bad o-line, but I was impressed with second year outside linebacker Aaron Lynch who had two sacks and a further two QB hits, and was causing all sorts of problems from the outside. The big plays they gave up to Russell Wilson will worry them, but the offence was giving them very little time off as the Seahawks had the ball for over thirty-eight minutes, and right now I would not be overly concerned with where their defence is despite their lowly ranking as it didn’t look that bad to me.
The Seahawks got back to their old formula on offence, with the opening drive a statement of intent as they repeatedly ran Marshawn Lynch, who looked much more like himself and was finally able to find the end zone after five previous snaps inside the five yard time on the opening drive, finishing the game with one hundred and twenty-two yard. The passing game was a bit more hit and miss with some big chunk passes going for twenty-three, thirty-six, and forty-three yards and a touchdown, but Russell Wilson also through two interceptions, one on a long bomb that I’m not sure why he threw the ball into double coverage, and one in the end zone where he did not see the safety. Wilson was again scrambling to keep plays going and they could have given up more than five sacks if he had not been so mobile. If they can keep the running game going then they can recreate the pattern that has served them so well in recent years, but it is still strange for them to have given up so much for Jimmy Graham and not utilise his skills more.
The 49ers played horribly in this game, and whilst they lost a lot of players in the offseason, it is still startling to see how quickly what was once one of the best offensive lines in football has fallen apart. They need more talent on both sides of the ball, but they have to find a way to generate more than one hundred and forty-two yards of offence if they are going to add to their win total this season.
We are going to need to see more than one sold win against a poor 49ers team to say that the Seahawks are back in the hunt, but it was a good start. However, they still need to find a way to provide Russell Wilson with better protection, and their trouble against tight ends could really hurt them if they can’t get it resolved.
22 Thursday Oct 2015
Posted in Uncategorized
Tags
In a way I don’t want to write this week’s column because if there is one position in the NFL that gets too much praise and blame it is the quarterback, not to mention all that gets written about them, but given the importance of the position you can understand why this is the case. I want to take a look at a specific aspect of the position, namely quarterback development, and use this to cast my eye over some of the more talked about players in the league.
The genesis of this column start with something I mentioned on the podcast last week when I was talking about what Greg Cosell mentioned about quarterbacks, specifically that he had been told that the greatest aid to a quarterback’s development was experience, and that the trick was to amass enough reps that the game slowed down for a player whilst they still had the physical tools to take advantage of it.
With the Bengals heading into their bye week with a 6-0 record for the first time since the 1988 season when they went to the Super Bowl, and only the third time in their history, much attention has been on their quarterback Andy Dalton. Even though he has lead the Bengals to the playoffs in each of if his four previous seasons, the fifth year quarterback has never won a playoff game and has earned himself a reputation for failing in high pressure games, particularly when they are nationally televised. A current theme for the Bengals’ season has been to ask what has changed for Dalton this year.
It is typical of how our society operates these days that we start searching for a quick fix reason for why a player has improved, but I think that what has happened in Cincinnati is a combination of natural player progression and the team surrounding Dalton. The obvious place to start is that the Bengals are much healthier this season on offence, tight end Tyler Eifert and receiver Marvin Jones didn’t play last year, whilst AJ Green was fighting injuries and was not himself. This year they are all healthy and the depth and balance has really helped the Bengals succeed. Another part of their success is that Hue Jackson is now in his second year as coordinator, enabling him to run through the full gamut of his play book. We have seen unbalanced lines and successful passes to backup linemen as well as the usual trick plays that Mohamed Sanu can offer with his history as a college quarterback.
So is the success Dalton is having this season simply a product of his environment? I would argue that there is evidence this isn’t the case, although these factors are definitely playing a role. You always have to be cautious with training camp stories, but one them familiar to anybody who frequents the Bengals.com site will be that Dalton has been working with the Dr Tom House in the offseason to work on his throwing mechanics. This in of itself is not a new thing as this is not the first season working with this training group who also look after Tom Brady among other elite throwing talents. However, this year he is also having them check in with him during the season, and already Geoff Hobson the editor of Bengals.com is writing here about how Dalton is retaining the new mechanics better according to one of the coaches from that team. Now I will remain properly sceptical about this, but it would make sense as he has now been to two offseason camps, and it is so hard to improve anything during the season that you would expect player progress to be incremental with occasional jumps as things click, and this is what seems to be the case with Dalton.
And this is not all, I recently heard Dave Lapham, ex Bengals linemen and radio commentator, talking on the Gridiron podcast about the fact that on a Tuesday, which is a player day off for the Bengals, Dalton is in the building working with the coaches on the game plan for the following week.
I don’t think that any single one of these factors is the one that we should point to and go that’s the reason for this year’s success, like so much in life it is more complex than that. It is also worth noting that not all players can be expected to improve at the same rate, but there definitely seems to be less patience in the modern game, and with a task as complex as playing quarterback in the NFL, which is so reliant on others doing their jobs around you, seems short sighted. However, it takes a special kind of owner to have the kind of patience with such a long term strategy if they don’t have an established coach or structure.
If you look around the league, everybody got their quarterbacks in different ways. The Patriots famously picked Tom Brady in the sixth round of the draft, where as the Packers equally famously picked Aaron Rodgers as he slipped down the first round of the draft despite already having an elite level quarterback already on the roster. Both have also led their teams to unbeaten records through six weeks, as has Cam Newton who was the first player taken in the 2011 draft, the same draft where the Bengals picked Andy Dalton in the second round. The Panthers have not surrounded Newton with the same kind of talent, but they have moulded their offence around their quarterback to take advantage of his ability to run the ball as well as throw. This seems to be working very well for the Panthers this season, and has done in the past, but it always worries me when a team exposes a player to the kind of hits you get when the quarterback becomes a defined runner, and at some point they have to transition that QB into playing a more traditional pocket passer role or their career will get cut short.
For several years people questioned the picking of Andy Dalton over Colin Kaepernick, who was the very next pick after Dalton in that 2011 draft, but whilst Kaepernick had early success and has played in a Super Bowl, if you compare the way their careers are currently progressing then the Bengals pick no longer needs defending. There are a lot of other problems in San Francisco, but Kaepernick does not seem to have progressed in terms of reading defences, going through his progressions or his accuracy, and this looks like it may well limit the length of his career in the NFL, particularly if the team don’t commit to shaping their offence around his running skill set like they have done in Carolina.
Finally, at the other end of the scale, Peyton Manning is our final undefeated quarterback, but whilst in previous years this would have likely been down to him, it has been anything but that this year. The window of physical ability seems to be slamming shut for Manning, and even though he was able to hit Emmanuel Sanders for a beautiful long touchdown, he is throwing too many bad balls. Not only that, but as a player stops being able to rely on their body, they start to make mental mistakes as they try to compensate, and it would appear that we are likely heading into the very final stretch of Manning’s career. Whilst it is unlikely that anything will change until this team starts losing games, the success the Broncos have had is likely not sustainable, and then it will be time for them to address the cyclical question that faces all NFL franchises, what do we do about the quarterback? There is no one way to deal with this issue, but how they are developed seems to be something that is too often overlooked in the media, even if not by the teams themselves.
That said, given our picks last week, maybe I should be keeping quiet about judging NFL teams and media, but let’s see if I can get myself back into an overall winning record this week.
Gee: Week 6 5-9 Overall 45-46
Dan: Week 6 6-8 Overall 43-48
Seahawks @ 49ers (+5.5)
The 49ers are coming off a win, and a pair of improving performances from Colin Kaepernick, but whilst the Seahawks are having some problems adjusting to their new defensive coordinator, I think they will have more than enough to cope with the 49ers limited offence. This is one of those lines that worry you, but I’ll put my faith in the talent of Seattle and hope that they continue to work Jimmy Graham into their offensive plans.
Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks
Bills @ Jaguars (+4.5)
This is a real tough one for me to call as neither team is truly at home. The Bills are dealing with injuries to Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins, who look not to be available for this game. The problem is that the Jaguars have not managed to put enough good play together consistently to win. The Bills managed to put up twenty-one points against the Bengals last week with EJ Manuel at quarterback, and Watkins missing for a chunk of time, so although the points make me hesitant, I will back the Bills in London
Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills
Falcons @ Titans (+4.5)
The Falcons showed their weaknesses last week in New Orleans, but the coaching staff will have learnt a lot about their team and there were certainly plenty of coachable moments. I think things get back on track against the Titans who didn’t put much of a fight last week against a resurgent Dolphins team. The other thing that worries me about the Titans is their coaching, and I thought Ross Tucker made a very interesting point about the sacks given up by the Titans in his discussion with Greg Cosell this week. According to Ross, once a player has been beaten twice for sacks, the rest are on the coaching staff as they either need to help that player with the scheme or get someone else in there. I think the Falcons will get back to winning ways in this one.
Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons
Browns @ Rams (-5.5)
The Browns have finished their last three games within three points of their opponents, so my reflex pick would be the Browns in this one. However, the Browns have faced two bad defences in those games, and the Broncos were singularly ill equipped to take advantage of the Browns thirty-first ranked rush defence by DVOA. However, this week they are on the road against a Rams team whose defence is playing excellently, and who may not have a good ranking of their rush offence, but they have Todd Gurley who racked up one hundred and fifty-nine yards against the Packers before their bye week. I think this is a game the Browns fail to keep close.
Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Browns
Vikings @ Lions (+2.5)
The Lions managed to get their first win last week, but there is still a lot of dysfunction and whilst the Vikings are not firing on all cylinders in terms of their offence, I have faith in Zimmer’s defence. I think they have more than enough to go into Detroit and get the win.
Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings
Saints @ Colts (-4.5)
This is a really hard game for me to pick as I was really impressed with the Saints offence last week, but I still felt their defence took advantage of situational factors and played poorly against the run. The Colts however do not have a good rush offence, are struggling with Andrew Luck’s play this season, and are not great on defence. I’m picking this based on Drew Brees starting to look like Drew Brees again, but I’m not convinced about it.
Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints
Steelers @ Chiefs (+1.5)
The Chiefs season seems to be falling apart, whilst the Steelers have remained competitive despite the fluctuations at quarterback. It is never easy to play in Arrowhead Stadium, but I think the Chiefs will be coming to England off the back of a loss.
Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers
Texans @ Dolphins (-4.5)
The question about the Dolphins is whether the reaction Dan Campbell got is sustainable, but they certainly played more like the team we were expecting them to be in the preseason. The Texans benefitted from being more settled at quarterback last week, but their defence still ranks in the twenties by DVOA. I’m going to follow Dan in his blind faith in the Dolphins for this week.
Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)
The Patriots are playing really well despite some problems with their offensive line, but the Jets defence is too good for them to run away with this game and so whilst I’m not sure that the Jets will win, I’m sure the game will be closer than ten points.
Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets
Buccaneers @ Washington (-3.5)
I am really not sure about this game. The Washington defence has not been good over the last few weeks, whilst Kirk Cousins has been throwing too many interceptions. Meanwhile the Buccaneers have flashed on defence, and been inconsistent on offence as they have been going through the growing pains of a rookie quarterback. I’m basing this pick on the thirteen places between them in DVOA rankings and that the game is in Washington, but I don’t like it.
Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers
Raiders @ Chargers (-4.5)
The Raiders have improved this season, but whilst the offence will likely move the ball on the Chargers and their twenty-sixth ranked defence, Philip Rivers only just lost their shoot out to the Packers, and I think that the loss of Justin Tuck will hurt the Raiders defence a lot.
Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers
Cowboys @ Giants (-4.5)
The Giants ran into an Eagles team who are struggling, but not on defence and that enabled them to win ugly against the Giants. The Cowboys though are a different proposition and I’m not convinced that the switch to Matt Cassel is going to jump start the Cowboys offence.
Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants
Eagles @ Panthers (-2.5)
The Eagles got their win last week with defence, and they have been running the ball better, but this week they face the fifth ranked defence by DVOA in the league. The battle between the Eagles offence, and the limited but effective offence of the Panthers should be fascinating, but in the end I’m backing the unbeaten team at home.
Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers
Ravens @ Cardinals (-7.5)
The Cardinals may have struggled on the road, but they are welcoming a Ravens team who have a pass defence that will be ripe for the Cardinals to take advantage of. As long as Carson Palmer protects the ball a bit better this week then the Cardinals should have no problems in beating a Ravens team who are likely to struggle to move the ball on them as well. It feels very strange to make this pick, but the Ravens just aren’t a good team this year.
Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals
22 Thursday Oct 2015
Posted in Podcasts
Tags
A little leaner, a little more structure, still two Brits talking about the game they love.
Welcome to episode 2 of the podcast, featuring botched fake punts, and review the best of what Week 6 had to offer, as well as looking ahead to Week 7, when Wembley plays host to the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills.
18 Sunday Oct 2015
Posted in Amateur Adventures in Film
Tags
Baltimore Ravens, Brandon Williams, Cleveland Browns, Gary Barnidge, Jimmy Smith, Joe Flacco, Josh McCown, Justin Forsett, Kamar Aikens, NFL, Travis Benjamin
I thoroughly enjoyed the Browns at Ravens game on coaching tape, but it was a curious one in that it was the offences and the personnel/formations that caught my eye on coaching tape, and only a few stand out plays caught my eyes on defence, mostly by the Ravens.
The Ravens’ offence was not impressive in the passing game, but had a field day running against the Browns defence. Initially they weren’t too impressive out of obvious running formations, but were able to get things out of 11 personnel early on in the game, and as it wore on were able to run consistently well in 12 personnel. Joe Flacco was able to get seventy-eight passing yards to Kamr Aikens, but forty-eight of those yards came on one play, and he was only able to hit him four times out of nine attempts, missing several deep strikes where Aikens had generated separation. They only gave up one sack, but the Browns were only rushing four on that play, and linebacker Armonty Bryant was able to get matched up with Justin Forsett and push him back into Flacco and get the sack.
There was not a lot that grabbed my attention from the Browns defence, the Ravens struggled to move the ball against them, but as I said, Flacco missed several deep balls that were available to Kamar Aikens. However, they bottled up the rest of the Ravens receivers, but that was the only good thing that could be said. The only other note I have about the Browns defence is a pass that was well deflected by linebacker Nate Orchard, but you can see why they are ranked as lowly as they are.
However, the Browns offence does seem to be coming together nicely. They moved the ball okay in the first half, but were only able to finish it with three field goals. However, they did establish that 11 personnel in various formations was their most effective way of moving the ball, and move the ball they did totally over five hundred yards, and Josh McCown throwing for over four hundred and fifty yards. His leading receiver was tight end Gary Barnidge who was lining up all round the formation, and ended the game with eight catches from ten targets for one hundred and thirty-nine yards and a touchdown, whilst Travis Benjamin caught six balls of twelve targets for eighty-three yards. However, the Browns also had Taylor Gabriel chip in seventy-five yards including the Browns’ longest play of fifty-six yards and Andrew Hawkins also gave them fifty yards from the slot. The passing game was what won them the game, as they were not able to rely on the run although Isaiah Crowell was able to maintain a reasonable yards per carry average, but the Ravens were solid against the run despite the rest of their defensive problems.
The Ravens defence gave up over five hundred yards in this game, and could not cope with the Browns passing game. The coverage after the game was that once they lost Elvis Doomervil, the Ravens were unable to generate a pass rush, but they did in fact manage to get four sacks and a further six quarterback hits, but they had to manufacture this by blitzing, and even on one play made it look like they were sending six before a linebacker dropped back into coverage. Their front seven was sold against the run, and tackle Brandon Williams was a handful all game logging a sack, tackle for a lost, and a quarterback hit, whilst frequently getting penetration and disrupting the browns. However, they could not cover the Browns well enough and it is telling that the only coverage note I made was a play where Jimmy Smith had tight coverage on a deep ball, but he was also second on the team for tackles behind linebacker Daryl Smith and didn’t have any passes deflected.
The Browns look like they have the offence to give a lot of teams trouble, even if they are ranked twenty-seventh in rush DVOA, the passing game is what has got them to their 2-3 record, and we will have to see how far it will get them.
The Ravens front seven is not getting enough pressure with a straight rush to give their back end a chance of covering, which meant they got gashed in the passing game, and this could be an ongoing problem. If they can get Steve Smith Senior back on offence, then things will pick up on that side of the ball in the pass game, but this is a team with flaws on the outside of both sides of the ball, and so far this has cost them. They do not look like your average 1-4 team, but their defence could have issues all season.
17 Saturday Oct 2015
Posted in Uncategorized
Despite it making a mockery of my pick for the game and my comments on the inaugural Wrong Football podcast, I thoroughly enjoyed this week’s Thursday night game where a desperate New Orleans Saints team managed to tear up the script and get an upset win over the visiting Atlanta Falcons.
The Saints managed to get a fast start, get the lead, and hold onto it for the rest of the game. Whilst they were marginally outgained by the Falcons on offence, they managed to take advantage of the Falcons’ flaws at key points to earn the win.
I’ll start with the Saints offence, and what I wrote about them when I was picking this game because Drew Brees answered the questions I had by having an amazing game. The Saints offensive line was giving up pressure all game, but Brees was so good that he was able to get the ball out and keep them moving. More importantly, he was also able to repeatedly link up with tight end Ben Watson who caught ten balls for one hundred and twenty-seven yards and a touchdown, exploiting the Falcons defence’s inability to cover him. The running game still wasn’t that effective, but thanks to Brees finding a rhythm, particularly in the second half, they were able to move the ball. I really can’t say too much in praise of Brees in this game as much like Philip Rivers in the last Monday night game, Brees was so quick with his decision with where to throw the ball that he managed to avoid getting sacked despite there frequently being defenders in the back field. Let’s face it we’d all rather Brees was playing well, so whilst he will face more complex defences this season, let’s hope that this is just the start of better things for the Saints offence.
That said, for large parts of the first half the Falcons defence had the upper hand and after giving up the first drive, did force several three and outs from the Saints as they managed to get pressure on Brees, and they prevented the Saints from running the ball effective all game. However, the Saints were able to repeatedly find Ben Watson who kept taking advantage of the Falcons coverage to have a career day. Also, despite repeatedly getting behind the Saints o-line, they were only able to sack Drew Brees once in this game, amassing four QB hits across the game.
If the Falcons defence struggled with one matchup, the offence struggled with turnovers, which ruined what could have been an otherwise fine performance. They struggled a little early on as the Falcons’ offensive line issues from last year resurfaced this week, but a combination of using play action and moving Matt Ryan to counter the line’s pass blocking issues, and effective zone blocking in the run game, meant that they were able to move the ball effectively for the majority of the game. The issue was that they repeated fumbled the ball, both on snaps to the quarterback and in the running game, ending good drives and preventing them from getting back into the contest. In fact the Falcons were able to run at will, racking up one hundred and fifty yards on just twenty-one attempts, but because of playing from behind were unable to exploit this as much as they would have liked. This also lead them to resort to the pass more than they would have liked, putting pressure back on their offensive line later in the game to stand up in more straight up pass blocking, which they were unable to do giving up five sacks. Special mention should go to Devonta Freeman who had a one hundred yard rushing day on just thirteen attempts as well as eight receptions for fifty-six yards, finishing the game with two touchdowns.
I was rude about the Saints defence, but whilst they had some effective moments in this game, they were run all over by the Falcons, and it was a combination of game flow and their opponents that enable them to do enough to win. I will say that I was impressed both with Cameron Jordan who ended the game with three sacks and racked up a further four quarterback hits, as well as corner Delvin Breaux who caught my eye several times in coverage. Time will tell if Rob Ryan is actually beginning to build something, or if this was a situational performance helped by a Superdome crowd who were given something to cheer early, and an opponent who had to move away from their game plan whilst being careless with the ball.
Take nothing away from the Saints though, they managed to put together all the ingredients to get the upset win, they started with an intensity that the Falcons didn’t seem prepared for, got an early lead to bring their home fans into play, and were able to generate enough defence to hold the Falcons at bay. It was great to see Drew Brees looking like the quarterback we have enjoyed watching so much over the years, and whilst I have no idea if this is a turning point in their season, it was definitely a step in the right direction.
The Falcons will be cross with the way that they gave this game away, but it also demonstrates that not all of their faults from last season have been corrected. The offensive line has been much better this season, but they will struggle in games where they are forced to chase the opposition or in situations where the defence can pin their ears back and rush the passer. They are clearly still a team to be reckoned with this season, but coaches around the league will be looking at the tape of this game to see those exploitable flaws, and it is just possible the Falcons might come back to the rest as the season goes on.
17 Saturday Oct 2015
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So this is really Dan’s baby, but we’ve been busy during the week and can present to you the first episode of our new podcast. We’ll be looking at the week’s games and news, as well as looking at the picks for the upcoming week.
And I promise I’ll be a bit quicker to the point next week as I think I nearly killed Dan in the editing.
We hope you enjoy it.
http://www.podcasts.com/the-wrong-football-podcast-643ec9827
15 Thursday Oct 2015
Posted in Uncategorized
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I was listening to a couple of podcasts over the weekend, one talking about philosophy and the difference between perception and truth, and another where Bill Simmons was talking about how a sports writer is usually right or wrong. Now I am not the kind of person to write a takedown piece just to generate traffic, but because I am an NFL obsessive this did get me thinking about what I am trying to do as a writer and specifically how I was approaching one of the teams that I am struggling the most to predict this season.
I am currently 1-4 in picking against the spread for games involving the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the only game I got right involved them going up against the Patriots, not exactly a difficult pick. The Jaguars have garnered a fair amount of good will in the UK with their commitment to the playing in London, and as a consequence of their repeated presence have naturally had more coverage over here than a team with their record might otherwise have garnered. It also helps that Gus Bradley is well liked and is a very positive person who is being given time to rebuild the Jaguars through the draft. However, they have never won more than four games with him as head coach, and currently stand as 1-4.
The media narrative surrounding the team is that they are building towards success, and that this could be the year that they could attain respectability even if the playoffs remain out of reach. I don’t want to delve into a metaphysical analysis of the nature of objective truth, but as the Jaguars are not a team I am watching week in week out, I decided to brave the Jaguars at Buccaneers week five game to take a closer look for myself.
I am no stranger to the dangers of hope, during the Bengals horrible run from 1998-2002 I didn’t go into the season thinking the team were doomed to double digit losses, but the proof was in the team’s results. In this game I saw a lot of the same things from those days, there is potential, but both teams were guilty of making the kinds of mistakes that lose you games. Also, we have a tendency to talk about good and bad players in the NFL, when the truth is that even the worst of them are professionals with physical skills or an understanding of the game that are likely far in excess of our own. The margin of error between success and failure is so fine that it only takes a few mistakes in key situations to change the result of a game, a slight lack of understanding to take you from a solid starter to ending your NFL career.
The Jaguars have been unable to get both sides of the ball working at the same time this season, and this loss to the Buccaneers must be so frustrating for the defensively minded Gus Bradley.
The Jaguars really do have promise on offence, I liked both Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson as receivers, and if they can work their big free agent signing tight end Julius Thomas into the game as he comes back from injury then they could have all the options they need in the passing game. There were also some flashes from rookie running back TJ Yeldon that made me think that things could come together very nicely for the Jaguars on offence. This is particularly true when you start looking at the development of their quarterback Blake Bortles, he threw for over three hundred yards in this game with four touchdowns and one interception. More importantly, he was able to throw some of those touchdown passes through tight windows, and in one play as the pocket broke down he was able to escape pressure and buy enough time for TJ Yeldon to come open in the end zone.
It is harder for me to comment on the defence as the Buccaneers found a weakness and kept exploiting it. There were plays were the Jaguars front would penetrate and stop the run for a loss, but the Jaguars essentially lost this game by giving up over one hundred and eighty yards on the ground as Dough Martin ran for over one hundred yards and two touchdowns as well as catching a third touchdown. With Bradley’s history as a defensive coach you would hope he could get this side of the ball to play well week in week out, but we will have to see.
So what is the truth about the Jaguars? Well like anything with this number of variables it is hard to tell, but there is more than the occasional glimpse of potential to this team and I hope for Jaguars fans that things do finally come good because I do see how they could. I will be watching them more carefully over the next couple of weeks to see how things develop, and whether they can get that elusive Wembley win in their week seven trip to London. Dan should expect some more texts from me announcing that I’ve gone with the Jaguars again.
Now on to the picks, with Dan pulling a game back on me last week I had better hit the mark in this week’s games.
Gee: Week 5 8-6 Overall 40-37
Dan: Week 5 9-5 Overall 37-40
Falcons @ Saints (+3.5)
This game has the potential to be a real blow out. The Falcons having been playing so well, and the Saints are really struggling. I don’t know how much is age, how much is the injury, and how much is the players around him, but Drew Brees has not looked good, whilst the defence is dead last in defensive DVOA and we’re already seeing friction between Sean Payton and Rob Ryan. They play the games for a reason, but it’s tough for me to see anything other than a big Falcons win in this one.
Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons
Bengals @ Bills (+2.5)
As a Bengals fan I am worried about this game. The Bills have been up and down on defence with Rex Ryan’s pressure schemes seeming to produce mixed results, whilst on offence they have been struggling to move the ball over recent weeks and Tyrod Taylor has a sprained kneww. However, as good as the Bengals have looked so far this season, they have to lose at some point and there is a part of me that is still waiting for the wheels to fall off, but I don’t think it will be in this game.
Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals
Bears @ Lions (-2.5)
The Lions are in such a mess right now, and I was so excited about them coming to London in week eight. The defence fell off again last week and who knows if we will see a fit DeAndre Levy this season. Things are even worse on offence with Matthew Stafford being benched during the last game. Meanwhile the Bears have quietly won two straight games under John Fox, who may not have won a Super Bowl in Denver, but he knows how to work with this kind of roster and it appears that the Bears are a better team that we thought at the start of the season.
Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Bears
Broncos @ Browns (+4.5)
The Browns are not the team I thought they were going to be, but Josh McCown has been undeniably effective moving the ball over the last two weeks, I’m just not sure what the long term plan is for them at quarterback given his age. The good news is that their poorly ranked defence, which is dead last in run defence DVOA is welcoming a Broncos team that are misfiring on offence and haven’t been able to run the ball at all. The Broncos are unbeaten so it is still too early to be talking about dropping Peyton Manning, but with his reduced effectiveness he has to at least protect the ball better for them to keep winning. Their defence will continue to be excellent even without DeMarcus Ware for a couple of weeks, but you can only succeed for so long when one side of the ball is performing so much worse than the other. I expect a close game, and having only missed picking against the Broncos by a half point last week, I’m going against them again as they visit Cleveland, even if I do expect them to win.
Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Broncos
Dolphins @ Titans (-2.5)
I really don’t know what to make of this game. The Titans were in an ugly game last week where neither team were able to move the ball. However, their defence has definitely been more effective this season and this could come into play in this game. The Dolphins will be hoping than new Head Coach Dan Campbell will produce a reaction in this game, but whilst the change in defensive coordinator and new attitude might help that woeful side of the ball, it is not going to suddenly improve their offensive line. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops, but I’m not backing the Dolphins until I’ve seen something with my own eyes that convinces me that things have changed.
Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
Chiefs @ Vikings (-3.5)
The Vikings are coming off a bye to welcome a Chiefs team whose season is falling apart around them. The talent in their front seven has not stopped this team giving up too many points on defence, and they just lost Jamaal Charles for the year who is so central to their offence. I don’t think the Chiefs are exactly a bad team, but it feels like a lost season for them and I don’t expect them to be able to cope with the Vikings on the road.
Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings
Washington @ Jets (-5.5)
The Jets defence is right up there with the Broncos for the best in the league, and they can run the ball effectively on offence, I’m just not sure they should be giving five and a half points to anyone. This Washington team are definitely headed in the right direction, the defence seems to be coming together and they have been able to run the ball in some games. The problem for me is that their defence is not as good as the Jets, and I don’t think they will be able to get much going on offence. I simply don’t trust Cousins against that Jets secondary, and so whilst I don’t like the points, I also don’t think the NFC East is a good division this year so I’m worriedly backing the Jets.
Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Washington
Cardinals @ Steelers (+3.5)
This looks to be one the best games of the week. The Steelers were able to get the job done on Monday night despite Mike Tomlin’s clock management and losing seconds to clock errors. They were aided by injuries to the Chargers line, but the defence and their play makers, including Michael Vick, did enough to get the win on the road. However, this week they welcome a Cardinals team who are rolling and deserved to be mentioned alongside the remaining undefeated teams. There are still questions about the Steelers’ secondary and in Carson Palmer we have a quarterback with the ability to test them. This is a hell of a swing in terms of points, but the only team to be within four points of the Cardinals this season was their divisional rivals the Rams who beat them in week four, and I think they will get the win in Pittsburgh.
Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals
Texans @ Jaguars (+0.5)
This is where I compare what I saw this week with the Jaguars against the Texans, who have been woeful this season. The Texans can’t defend despite having one of the best defensive players in the league, and they’ve been all over the place with their quarterbacks. I would be playing Hoyer as I think Mallet makes too many mistakes, and this is one of the few games where it might matter, but I am once more picking the Jaguars.
Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans
Panthers @ Seahawks (-6.5)
This is a tricky game for me as we have seen a few cracks in the Seattle defence this season, and even with Kam Chancellor back they couldn’t stop the Bengals comeback in the last quarter. More worryingly for me, their offensive line is still really struggling in pass protection and so Russell Wilson is still under too much pressure. However, I was really impressed with Thomas Rawls who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season, and the run game was looking better last week. The Panthers have done really well so far, and have beaten the teams in front of them, but Cam Newton is running too much and that can only last so long. Their defence however is really good, and I foresee a close defensive game. I don’t know who will win it, but I don’t see why the Seahawks are getting the extra points so I’m backing the Panther to be less than a touchdown behind at the end of the game.
Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers
Chargers @ Packers (-9.5)
The Packers have not been the offensive juggernaut of the early weeks, but they still have Aaron Rodgers even if he did look mortal last week. However, this year the defence is ranked inside the top ten in defensive DVOA, even if the run defence is rated near the bottom of the league. They welcome a wounded Chargers team, whose offensive line suffered another injury last week, and were only able to move the ball thanks to Philip Rivers outstanding play, but they are soft on defence and I’m not sure I would back anyone against the Packers at home this season unless they are getting more points than this.
Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers
Ravens @ 49ers (+2.5)
This is a tricky one for me as Kaepernick managed to get a little something going last week, and the 49ers at least pushed the Giants into coming from behind in the fourth quarter to win the game. This week they welcome a Ravens team who have just been bad, I’ve talked about their problems at receiver and secondary, but it turns out that in addition to losing Terrell Suggs for the season, Elvis Dummervil has been fighting a groin problem all season and had to come out of the game last week resulting in very little pass rush. This is a match of two 1-4 teams, but it’s just possible that the Ravens are simply not going to be good this year, and with them going across country to play the 49ers, plus giving them points… I’m not ready to back them in this one.
Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Ravens
Patriots @ Colts (+7.5)
The Patriots are on such a roll, and the Colts really could have lost to the Texans last week so this is a simple pick for me, even with the Colts getting this many points.
Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots
Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)
The Eagles got their offence going last week, but I have to wonder how much was the Eagles game plan and how much was the Saints woeful defence. The Giants are going to pose a sterner test, and I’m not sure what the Eagles have done so far this season to gain an extra half point.
Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants
