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2021 Week Seven Picks

24 Sunday Oct 2021

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Given that Teddy Bridgewater was dealing with a foot and quad injuries whilst the Browns were down to a third string running back and backup quarterback, it’s perhaps not surprising that Thursday night was not a high scoring affair. However, Browns’ running back D’Ernest Johnson took his prime-time opportunity to show exactly what he could do, running for one hundred and forty-six yards and torturing the Broncos run defence all game. In fact, the Broncos’’ defence struggled all evening, not helped by Von Miller exiting the game late in the second quarter with a sprained ankle. Even though the numbers were not spectacular, Case Keenum ran the Browns offence effectively and in the first half it looked like the Browns were going to win by a lot, but the Broncos finally got going in the second half and were able to turn the contest into a close game that they ultimately lost 14-17. This was the Broncos’ fourth straight loss after a strong start to the season and they really need to find something in this long week to turn things round. I was really impressed with the quality of the Browns’ performance given the injuries they are dealing with and the Browns are at very least going to be a difficult team to face all year and are still in the hunt in a competitive AFC.

As I turn my attention to picks it looks like a week of lines I really don’t like but in my infinite wisdom I didn’t give Dan and I the options of staying away, which is definitely what I want to do with a large chunk of these picks.

Early Games:

I was already looking at the Bengals visit to the Baltimore Ravens as the matchup of week, and in a slightly unusual moment it seems the American media agree with me. The Bengals at 4-2 remain in contention for the division, which is not what I was expecting from them and although the offence is somewhat boom or bust, the defence is ranked fifth by DVOA and the Bengals have been in every game this season with their two losses coming by field goals. However, the Ravens have the best record in the AFC and looked truly terrifying against the Chargers last week. The defence is only ranked fourteenth, which is a little surprising, but the offence is top ten and Lamar Jackson looks better dropping back to pass and has been less reliant on his ability to amaze running the ball. I’m really hoping that the Bengals can keep this one competitive on the road and whilst I would be delighted with a win, it would be a big surprise, but the Bengals have been a surprise package so far this season and that in of itself is a positive step given their recent record.

The next game I want to discuss is not exactly the matchup you would have thought looking through the schedule before the season started, but the Titans hosting the Chiefs has the potential for a fun offensive contest given that the Chiefs’ defence ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA and the Titans’ is a lofty twenty-eighth. It’s hard to see the Chiefs’ defence stopping Derrick Henry who continues to prove himself a statistical outlier immune to the usual rules of workload for running backs and somehow was the fastest player carrying the ball last week while being two-hundred and fifty or so pounds. However, while the Chiefs struggled last week, they may have found something late in their game against Washington using 12 personnel to improve the protection of Patrick Mahomes. This game has the potential to be a great shoot out, except if the Chiefs get rolling I’m not sure Derrick Henry is the right player to keep up with the Chiefs explosive offence despite his capacity to take the ball to the end zone on almost any given play. I’m looking forward to watching this one, but I’m not enjoying picking it at all!

Points from the rest:

  • The vaunted Washington defence from last season is currently ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA and the offence is not exactly a hung amount better so the big question in this game is likely to be whether the Packers can cover this line unless Washington show some rapid improvement.
  • The Dolphins come back from London having lost to the Jaguars and with a swirl of rumours about a potential trade for Deshaun Watson. The Falcons are coming off a bye having won their own London game and while neither team are good right now, the Dolphins were meant to be competing this season but haven’t looked like it for much of the season. However, there is something in the line, and I really didn’t think Tua Tagovailoa played that bad last week and with trade rumours swirling I’m sure the embattled QB is looking to prove his worth in this one.
  • The Patriots look to have their replacement for Tom Brady, and the Pats have competed in some big games this season but so far they have only two wins so the seven and a half points they are laying looks troubling. That is until you remember the Pats have already blown out the Jets on the road and Bill Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks. I do wonder if this line is too high, but backing the Jets as underdogs has bitten me too often over the years to back them in this one.
  • The Panthers have a top ten defence by DVOA but are a very mixed bag on offence and have slipped to 3-3 from a 3-0 start. However, the Giants are both bad and injured so I can’t back them even getting points at home given the Panthers have a genuine strength to gameplan with.

Washington @ Packers (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Chiefs @ Titans (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Falcons @ Dolphins (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Jets @ Patriots (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Panthers @ Giants (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Late Games:

There isn’t really a great game in the late slate of games, although there could be some interesting narratives.

The Raiders won their first game after the Jon Gruden resignation, but now we must see if they are coalescing as a team or if that was a one-week bounce. I have heard some commentary that the Raiders have been finding themselves in a position where people are able to get on with their jobs rather than having Gruden involved as he was to an unusual amount across the franchise before his very public fall from grace. The Eagles are not a good football team but are coming off a long week having lost on Thursday night and then trading Zach Ertz to the Cardinals. I like the Raiders to win this game and the line definitely concerns me but given how the Eagles have been playing I’m going to reluctantly back the Raiders.

The LA Rams game is all about the narrative given they swapped quarterbacks with the Lions in the offseason and Matthew Stafford has looked great running Sean McVay’s offence. The Lions up to last week had kept all their games close and were a tough team to play, but the Bengals of all teams beat them comfortably enough that head coach Dan Campbell came out and said he needed more from Jared Goff. It must be so disorientating for Goff, who went to the Super Bowl with the Rams in 2018 but hasn’t looked the same since and now finds himself on a rebuilding Lions team. Goff looks to be the kind of quarterback who needs everything around him to be right rather than a player who elevates those around him. This line is enormous, and it will be telling if the Lions get blown out again, but I can’t back all of the big favourites this week and something about Goff facing his old team has me taking the points.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Cardinals are 6-0 and should have more than enough to beat a Texans team who beat the Jaguars in week one and been competitive in exactly one game since against the Patriots. The line makes me incredibly nervous given how easy it would be for the Cardinals to take the Texans too lightly but having lost by twenty-eight to the 2-4 Colts I can’t bring myself to back the Texans.
  • The Buccaneers should have no problem in beating the Bears, but with Antonio Brown out injured alongside the slew of corners and the Bears having a top ten defence by DVOA I think the Bears can keep this one within two touchdowns.

Eagles @ Raiders (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Lions @ Rams (-15.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Texans @ Cardinals (-16.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Bears @ Buccaneers (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Sunday Night Football:

Colts @ 49ers (-3.5)

I am intrigued about this game and will definitely be watching it even if it does see the 2-4 Colts visiting the 2-3 49ers coming off a bye. The 49ers will have Jimmy Garoppolo back at quarterback, which they need with rookie Trey Lance being out with a knee sprain. The Colts have put together good performances the last two weeks and I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing how they do against a 49ers team who are ranked tenth overall by DVOA despite all the injuries. It may not be a great sounding matchup given their records, but there’s plenty to take away from this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Monday Night Football

Saints @ Seahawks (+4.5)

Here we are, Monday night and the big quarterback matchup is Jameis Winston versus Geno Smith. Perhaps more worrying for the Seahawks given that Smith has given the Seahawks competent play at quarterback, is the problems they are having on defence, ranked as they are twenty-second by DVOA and built around a safety in Jamal Adams who is a liability in coverage and who costs them multiple first-round picks in a trade. The Seahawks ranking of ninth overall and sixth on offence must surely slip by the time Russell Wilson returns from the finger injury on his throwing hand. That said, the Saints are a hard team to read this season as they are alternating wins and losses before going on bye last week. The familiar on the field up and down play of Jameis Winston has not disappeared under Sean Payton but the defence is ranked an impressive third by DVOA and you feel like the Saints should win this one. The line does make me nervous given Winston’s history, although I should say he has a four to one touchdown to interception rating but a 60.3 completion percentage. Part of me wonders if the Seahawks can keep it close, but I feel like Sean Payton is going to be able to find too many things against this Seahawks defence, which combined with his own defence going against Geno Smith means I’m going to eventually back the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Seven

21 Thursday Oct 2021

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We are a third of the way through the regular season, and after a bad week Dan has reeled in what was a five point lead to tie up the picks competition but there is still a long way to go.

Gee:Week 6:  5 – 9Overall:  48 – 46
Dan:Week 6:  7 – 7Overall:  48 – 46

Broncos @ Browns (-3.5)

The Broncos strong start to the season has tailed off as the opposition has got tougher whilst the Browns are dealing with a multitude of injuries on offence and a defence that ranks thirteenth by DVOA in spite of the hopes many had for it coming into the season. For all that Baker Mayfield is toughing out the shoulder injury in his non-throwing shoulder, with both of their top two running backs out, the Browns are really struggling and a short week is not exactly what they need. The Broncos really need to halt their slide and get back to winning ways, but if you look at their schedule the run does make sense. I know that Dan has gone back and forth multiple times on this one but settled on the Broncos, which matches what I’m seeing in the lines and so he’ll at least have company if the Browns do overcome the injuries to get the win.

Gee’s Pick:     Broncos
Dan’s Pick:     Broncos

Survivor Competition

I was surprised that Dan went with the Dolphins against the Jaguars last week and him falling a further point behind is very much the least of his concerns surrounding football at the moment, but he has changed tack this week by picking against a new team, this time going against the winless Lions as they are visiting the Rams. There are a number of large lines this week that offer up possible survivor picks, and the Cardinals are tempting, except at 6-0 they might be due a loss at some point even if you don’t expect it. Anyway, I’ve settled on the Buccaneers hosting the Bears so here’s hoping they don’t let me down.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 3

Week 7 Selection:

Gee:    Buccaneers
Dan:    Rams

Bold Prediction of the Week

So I always find this difficult and was clearly feeling the pressure whilst recording the podcast as my bold prediction this week is the Bengals to beat th Ravens… What was I thinking?

2019 Week Seven Picks

20 Sunday Oct 2019

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I’m back to my usual form with picking Thursday night, and I shall have to see if I can work out a way to fade my own selections next week, but without further ado let’s get to the week seven trivia question and hopefully better selections for the rest of the games.

‘Which team did Cincinnati Bengal quarterback Carson Palmer get his first win against?’

This is a proper I’m going to look stupid question as Palmer’s first game came a year after he was drafted as this was a time when quarterbacks still routinely sat for their first year, but it was also something like fifteen years ago so there wasn’t the back loading of the season with division games – I’m going to stick in the AFC North, although it could be any one and say the Cleveland Browns. Knowing my luck it will be the Dolphins.

For the theme I’m going for The Wrong Football, as the teams involved all seem to be related to the teams we support or have seen play.

‘I think I’m going to just have to go down the logical route on this one seeing as Carson Palmer will have played the Ravens, Browns and Steelers twice per year, so it’s more likely to be one of those than anyone else. I think I’ll go with the Cleveland Browns.

Still no clue on the theme but now after that clue I feel a bit silly for deleting the old emails with the questions on!’

Rams @ Falcons (+3.5)

I’m really not sure about this one as the Falcons have been plain bad for a number of weeks, particularly on defence whilst the Rams have also been struggling. I’m leaning towards the Rams for the win despite the problems they have been having, but the number does give me pause. In the end I’m going to plump for the Rams but I really don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Dolphins @ Bills (-16.5)

I have seen this line as high as seventeen and I think the Bills are a genuinely good team, but I think this line is too high given the Dolphins are starting Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ highest win so far this season is fourteen. I could be wrong, but I’m not sure the Bills’ offence is going to generate the points necessary to cover this line, even if I expect them to win.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Jaguars @ Bengals (+3.5)

The Jaguars may be on a losing streak of two games, but they are still a much better side by DVOA and it’s so hard to trust the Bengals at the moment. I perhaps should be grabbing the points but I’m not sure the Bengals will keep this one within a field goal. I would love to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Vikings @ Lions (-1.5)

I’m seeing very different lines than this one, and my concern is that the Lions have been competitive for pretty much all year, whilst the Vikings have been a bit up and down, but given how the Vikings have played in the last couple of weeks and they’re still getting points I’m going to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Raiders @ Packers (-6.5)

The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 despite the new offence not quite clicking thanks to a defence that ranks top ten by DVOA and the fact that quietly the offence is also top ten. That said, the Raiders have been competitive all year and have a winning record and whilst I’m not saying they will go into Lambeau Field and win, I do fancy them to keep the game within seven.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The Texans have won two games in a row whilst not giving up a sack and receiver Will Fuller actually has more receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins, which has given the offence some more balance than they’ve had in recent years. They travel to face a Colts team who just beat the Chiefs and so this should be a cracking divisional game, although there is a ten place difference between the Colts and the Texans by overall DVOA and so with them getting points on the road I’m grabbing the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:        Texans
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Cardinals @ Giants (-2.5)

Don’t look now, but the Cardinals have won two games in a row and are travelling to face a Giants team who have come back to Earth a little after Daniels Jones’s first two games yielded wins, having faced the Vikings and the Patriots the last two weeks. There is not much between the Cardinals and Giants in terms of DVOA and so I’m finding this a difficult game to pick, particularly has home field advantage seems not to be as strong these days. In the end I’m going to fall on the home team given how young the Cardinals are and I just can’t see them winning three games in a row. Well, until tonight that is…

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

49ers @ Washington (+9.5)

Washington got their first win of the season last week as interim head coach Bill Callahan took over the team and focused on running the ball, but it is one thing to beat the Dolphins when they are in full tank mode and another when facing an unbeaten 49ers team. This is a lot of points for a home underdog, but this is also the second ranked team by DVOA facing the thirtieth and given Washington’s lack of home field advantage I’m backing the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:        49ers
Dan’s Pick:        49ers

Chargers @ Titans (-2.5)

This is one of the trickier games for me to pick as the LA Chargers have been massively hit by injuries, but the Tennessee Titans have just sat their supposed franchise quarterback having fallen to 2-4 and been held scoreless last week by the Broncos. It has been confirmed that Ryan Tannehill will get the start this week, but given the form of both teams I’m finding it really hard to come down on a side for this game. If left to my own devices I would likely just stay away but given I have to make a pick I am going to grab the points and hope that the experience of Philip Rivers wins out.

Gee’s Pick:        Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Saints @ Bears (-3.5)

As impressive as the Chicago Bears’ defence is, and they are coming off a bye week, I don’t like this line for them as the offence has not clicked at all and the New Orleans Saints’ defence has been playing well, whilst Teddy Bridgewater has been doing enough to win. I’m not saying the Bears can’t win this game, but I like the Saints to keep this one to within a field goal.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Ravens @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Baltimore Ravens looked good against the Bengals last week, but playing a defence whose weaknesses are right at the perfect place for Lamar Jackson to exploit and the Bengals sputtering offence might have masked some of the concerns they’d shown in the previous couple of week. In week seven they travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team who are 5-1 for a reason, and mostly that is the efficiency of Russell Wilson. The line gives me a slight pause, but Seattle have a genuine home-field advantage and I think they are the better team – this should be a cracking game and I could well look foolish by the end of it but I’m taking the Seahawks in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

I really don’t like this line at all as neither team are healthy or give me a huge amount of confidence with both of them having lost last week. Whilst the Eagles’ secondary got exposed by the Vikings who have one of the better receiving duos in the league, the Cowboys have struggled to move the ball through the air on offence, have injuries at receiver, and have in fact lost three straight. It’s not much to go on but I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Eagles
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The New York Jets were another team who got their first win last week as the return of Sam Darnold made a huge difference. This week they welcome a Patriots team who continue to beat big lines despite the offence not quite clicking thanks to a league leading by DVOA defence and having played Thursday night will be well rested for this one. It was one thing for the Jets to beat a beat up Cowboys team whose form is going in the wrong direction, but the Patriots are a much tougher proposition and I’m going to back the Pats to continue their impressive run in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: Week Seven

17 Thursday Oct 2019

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I had a great picks week despite the lack of time that saw me go 11-3, but I’m still lost with the trivia theme so here are our records:

Gee: Week 6   11-3 Overall   50-42
Dan’s Dad: Week 6   7-7 Overall   44-48
Dan: Week 6   8-6 Overall   43-49

Chiefs @ Broncos (+3.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have a problem in that the defence they overhauled over the off-season has not improved, in fact their rushing defence ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA. This is a problem as it opens up a game plan to defeat them by running the ball, dominating time of possession and trying to force the Chief’s offence to be super-efficient. This wouldn’t have worked last season because of how good Patrick Mahomes and the offence was, but with injuries across the offence and Mahomes himself struggling with an ankle injury the Chiefs have lost their last two games. A trip to the thin air of Mile High stadium in a short week is not what the Chiefs need right now and particularly given that whilst the Denver Broncos started slow, their defence is getting somewhere near what you expect with Vic Fangio as your head coach. In fact the Broncos are looking for their game plan to be play good defence and run the ball anyway. I’m not sure whether the Chiefs are actually going to lose three in a row, but I don’t expect them to run away with it and getting three and a half points at home is just too tempting to miss.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Week 7 Trivia

‘It would seem that my improvement in the Picks competition last week was a false dawn, and I’ve seen a few of those over 60 years. For much of Sunday I was looking good but late scores by teams including Cincinnati and Miami didn’t net them a win but did close the spread to deny me the points. Clearly my time will come but I’ll have to console myself with another strong Vikings performance, so vital in what is becoming a very tight division that could go all way. Great effort by Gee and Dan anyway!

It was 11 years ago, almost to the day, that Dan and I saw the Bears see off a strong Vikings team in a really high scoring game at Soldier Field. Seeing the number of Peyton 34 jerseys being worn by fans proved the high regard in which this legend of the game was still held.

So, with both Dan and Gee correct this week, as I expected both are tied on 6 points. As a side order on this one I’m reminded of another 34 ( and the shirt I bought for dan on a visit there a few years before) one Ricky Williams of the Dolphins – not forgetting that it would once again be appropriate for Dan come February!

No sign of the theme being cracked here – so here is one clue. Think less about the answers than the root of the question.

OK, we now arrive at week 7 and my question is about the Bengals. With Mr Propeller Head to contend with I needed something testing but not unfair to Dan at the same time.

Here goes:     Which team did Cincinnati Bengal quarterback Carson Palmer get his first win against?

Catch you next week Hup Hup’

2018 Week Seven Picks

21 Sunday Oct 2018

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So I had a Thursday night where I pretty much couldn’t have been further from right so let’s hope that form doesn’t spill into today’s picks! Firstly, however, can I pick up any more points in the trivia competition:

‘How many of the 31 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces? I’ll give a score of  2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

So I’ve been through a list of teams and assigned those that I think play on grass but looking at the number I think I’m wrong. I’ll go for it anyway, so twenty-one.

‘We’re back to guessing again. Question for me is do I think more or less than half have turf… I think it’s close. I’ll say 15 have Grass.’

Titans @ Chargers (-6.5)

These are two teams in very different places and I have a lot more faith in the Chargers given they have only lost to very good teams for quite a while now. I’m hesitant because of the size of the line but given the frequency with which London games seem to be one sided I’m going to pick them to cover this line against a Titans team who gave up eleven sacks last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Bills @ Colts (-6.5)

I think the Indianapolis Colts are a better team than their 1-5 record indicates and having played four games on the road so far this season t this looks to be as good a chance as they’ve had to get a home win. The Buffalo Bills defence actually ranks third by DVOA but after Josh Allen picked up an elbow injury they’re starting Derek Anderson who has only been on the roster for a little over a week. This could bite me but there is a big difference between these two teams’ overall DVOA percentage and I’m backing Andrew Luck and his team to cover, even if I don’t like laying this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Patriots @ Bears (+3.5)

So I am very curious about this game as the New England Patriots will be riding high after a big win against the Chiefs on Sunday night football last week, whereas the Bears are coming off a disappointing loss to the Dolphins in the heat of Miami. Not only did the Bears lose, but Khalil Mack picked up an ankle injury although is expected to play. It feels strange to me that the Bears are actually ranked higher than the Patriots by DVOA, particularly as there’s a fairly large difference in DVOA percentage between them, but it’s not a figure I trust. The Bears had such a huge win over the Buccaneers I suspect it is skewing the figures and there is no way you can trust Mitch Trubisky even if Matt Nagy is at least scheming him a way to have a chance of success. I like the Patriots to win this game but in a matchup of the seventh ranked offence versus the number one defence by DVOA I’m going to grab this number of points at home for the cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Browns @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the first team to fire a co-ordinator when Mike Smith was let go after their loss to the Falcons last week. Yes, the defence has been a big problem but their offence has thrown for a lot of yards and scored points but more often not has not been able to overcome their porous defence. This week a welcome a Cleveland Browns team who had their first bad loss of the season last week, but who still have a top ten defence even if the offence is struggling. I don’t know how Baker Mayfield will look given the ankle injury he picked up last week but this could be a tough spot for them on the road but also represents an opportunity to get right. The extra half point worries me as I don’t really trust either team so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The Miami Dolphins remain in contention for a playoff spot thanks in large part to an unbeaten home record, aided by heat and humidity that has sapped the strength of their opponents. Last week they beat an improved Bears team and now they welcome an up and down Detroit Lions who have two quality wins, including the Packers last week. The emergence of Kenny Golladay at receiver and rookie running back Kerryon Johnson has caught the eye but only led to a DVOA ranking of twentieth. In fact, there is a huge difference in overall DVOA percentage between these two teams that’s leading me to join Dan in backing the Dolphins this week, even if Brock Osweiler likely being the quarterback again doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Vikings @ Jets (+3.5)

Things have picked up for the Minnesota Vikings in the last couple of weeks as they managed to beat the Eagles and Cardinals but their vaunted defence just isn’t the same this season and whilst Kirk Cousins has generated a lot offence, he has also fumbled a number of times and thrown three interceptions to go with his twelve touchdowns. This week they travel to face the New York Jets who are actually ranked five placed ahead of the Vikings by overall DVOA as well as having the same number of wins. Sam Darnold may have looked like a rookie quarterback but he’s looked like a good one, although his favourite receiver Quincy Enunwa is going to be missing for a couple of weeks with an ankle sprain. This is quite a lot of points for the Jets at home and with the extra half point I’m strongly tempted to pick them but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I could regret this but I’m nervously backing the always competitive Vikings.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Panthers @ Eagles (-4.5)

After a straight forward road win on Thursday night, the Philadelphia Eagles return home to host a Carolina Panthers who lost on the road in Washington last week. The Panthers still rank better by overall DVOA and the Eagles have been up and down all season, mainly due to the problems they’ve had on offence. The last couple of weeks have looked better though as Carson Wentz has found his feet behind centre and he got Alshon Jeffery back from injury. The Panthers not only lost to Washington, but needed a last minute sixty yard field goal to beat the New York Giants and with them being on the road for a second week in a row it feels like the Eagles have the edge in this one. I’m not thrilled with the points but I think the Eagles are on the up whilst the Panthers are having a wobble. This is usually the cue for me to get the pick wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

Texans @ Jaguars (-4.5)

These are two teams that right now are performing pretty similarly in that they both have top ten defences and under-performing offences. The Jaguars come home after losing two on the road and you have to think the defence will be desperate to put things right after shipping forty against the Cowboys last week. The Texans struggling offensive line could be just the tonic to facilitate that and the fact that Deshaun Watson is fighting a chest injury is perhaps not surprising given the amount of times he has been hit. It’s a big if, but if Blake Bortles can stop the turnovers this week then things could easily settle for the Jaguars and I fancy them to bounce back big now that they are finally home. The points worry me though, and in the end I’m going to grab the points in a game that has far too many unknowns for me to feel comfortable making a strong pick.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Saints @ Ravens (-2.5)

This should be a cracking matchup when the New Orleans Saints’ offence takes on the Baltimore Ravens’ defence and this looks to be one of the more interesting matchups of the week. The Saints are coming of a bye having won their previous four weeks, but this will be as stiff a challenge as they have faced all season and the Saints are actually ranked three places lower in DVOA thanks to the balance the Ravens have across all phases of the game. The numbers for Drew Brees on the road are markedly different and going against the leagues number two defence by DVOA in Baltimore where they Ravens only need a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team but it would not surprise me if the Saints win this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (-1.5)

I almost have no idea what to do with this one. After joining the chorus of people stating their frustration with the Cowboys offence, they came up with a game plan that scored forty points against the Jaguars vaunted defence last week and this week they travel to a perennially average Washington team who seem to specialise in being around 8-8. I don’t have a lot of faith in either side so it’s hard to pick. That said the Cowboys defence is just outside the top ten by DVOA and is fifth against the run so whilst Washington have done well when Adrian Peterson has got yards, I’m not sure he can do it week to week or against this defence. The Cowboys have been bad on the road but in this divisional matchup they have won the last four and getting points I’m going to take a risk. Watch Washington prove me wrong now!

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Rams @ 49ers (+10.5)

It’s a trap! The LA Rams are rolling and are the only remaining undefeated team having swept aside all before them and this week they travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers team who have one win so far this season. However, as much as the Rams don’t let up on their opponents, they have some injuries and it has been three weeks since they beat a team by enough points to cover this spread and they are on the road for a third straight week. I’m not predicting an upset, certainly for a team on a short week but I think the 49ers can keep this within eleven.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Bengals @ Chiefs (-5.5)

I am properly terrified by this game. Even though it wasn’t the worst defeat to the Steelers last week, the Bengals picked up a bunch of knocks and worrying injuries in the secondary. Now they are taking their twenty-fourth ranked defence on the road to face the terrifying Kansas City Chiefs’ juggernaut of an offence. This game had loss written all over it even before it was flexed into prime time, which has historically not been a happy place for the Marvin Lewis led Bengals. I think this will be a shootout and it is possible the Bengals will hang with the Chiefs but I don’t know if they can keep it close enough to make a cover worth a pick. In a second week of emotional hedging, I will hope to be proved wrong but I wasn’t last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Giants @ Falcons (-6.5)

This is a strange primetime matchup in that it pits a New York Giants team struggling to put together much on either side of the ball against an Atlanta Falcons team who are beset by injuries. The Falcons defence is ranked thirty-first in league by DVOA having lost key players up its spine and so their offence has not been able to score enough to win games. The Giants have two world class skills position players, but with the problems on the offensive line and Eli Manning’s struggles they have not been able to really take advantage of them enough to win. The ability of Saquon Barkley is breath taking, but he has been very boom or bust with long runs combined with getting stuffed at the line. This is a big line for a team with two wins, but the Falcons have one unit that is still in the top half by DVOA and with Matt Ryan at home let’s push the boat out as I just can’t trust the Giants on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Seven

18 Thursday Oct 2018

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Somehow we are at week seven and with me barely holding onto a lead in the pick competition we turn to the new week’s games.

Gee:    Week 6   8-7               Overall   46-47
Dan:     Week 6   9-6               Overall   45-48

Broncos @ Cardinals (+2.5)

This is a difficult pick given that whilst the Cardinal have shown enough on defence to beat the spread a couple of times, they are pairing a top ten defence by DVOA with the thirty-first ranked offence that has a fair gap between them and Cleveland at thirtieth and a chasm down to the Bills who are propping up the league. However, whilst the Broncos are somehow ranked thirteenth overall by DVOA and eighteenth on defence, they have also given up and astonishing five hundred and ninety-three rush yards in the last two games. Now I thought this would be historically bad, and whilst it is certainly not good, the Indianapolis Colts actually managed this feat last year and there have been two hundred such streaks since the merger. Now I focussed on this diligently because David Johnson is an incredibly talented back, but it turns out the Cardinals are ranked thirty-second in the league for run attack by DVOA so now I’m even more lost…

I am actually interested in this game, I want to see what is going on with both teams and take a look at Josh Rosen but picking it feels like a fool’s errand. However, there is a picks competition to keep going and so a side has to be taken. Working on my principle of picking the home team Thursday night unless there is a really good reason not to, and given that I’m getting points I’m going to pick the Cardinals but this is what is technically known as a crap shoot.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Week 7 Trivia

This week’s write up of the trivia is too good to cut, and I’m not just saying that because I pulled a point back on Dan:

‘Week 5’s kickers question and Graham Gano’s 63 yarder prompted an unusual bonus question in week 6.

My original Wk6 offering asked which College Football teams had produced the most Hall of Famers. Well Gee warmed up some of his grey cells and correctly answered Notre Dame but didn’t add to this Southern California, both of which have sent 12 of their number. I will, however, award Gee 1 point for the weeks best effort.

The Bonus then asked who holds the IN PLAY record FG distance. Dan was convinced that the record stood at 63 but I hadn’t shot myself in the foot as on 8 December 2013 the Broncos Matt Pater scored a withering 64 yards. I’m glad I specified In Play or we may have seen a new offence of ‘roughing the question master’ when I tell you that College kicker Nick Rose from Texas managed an imperious 80 yards. Yes 80. So it was just 1 point for Gee this week I’m afraid.

Calming things down, here is the question for Week 7 is, very simply – How many of the 32 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces. I’ll give a score of 2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

Week Seven Picks

22 Sunday Oct 2017

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Buccaneers @ Bills (-2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have announced that they are starting quarterback Jameis Winston despite pulling him from last week’s game due to a shoulder injury, but whether he will be effective against a Buffalo Bills defence that currently ranks second in the league by DVOA is another question. To be honest, at the moment I would say that the Bills are the better team and I would expect them to win out at home against a Bucs team that hasn’t quite come together this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Panthers @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears managed to get a win in rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s first start, but he was only asked to make sixteen passes as opposed to fifty-four rush attempts. This is a very specific formula and they are facing a Carolina Panthers’ rush defence that ranks sixth in the league by DVOA. More worrying is that the Panthers’ offence is also coming together and I would expect them to win out after losing a close game to the Eagles last week. Sadly Luke Kuechly won’t be playing as he is suffering a concussion for the third straight year, but that is not altering my pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Titans @ Browns (+5.5)

The Cleveland Browns are going back to starting DeShone Kizer, which is the right long term decision for the team as they need to find out if they have their quarterback of the future, but it does seem that Hue Jackson is feeling the pressure of not having won a game this year. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have to restrict Marcus Mariota’s movements out the pocket but they got back on track with a win last week. I would expect them to win again this week but I’m not sure they will win by six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Saints @ Packers (+5.5)

As if Green Bay Packers didn’t have enough injury problems already with their offensive line, they’ve now lost Aaron Rogers to a broken collar bone in his throwing shoulder. The Packers’ backup quarterback Brett Hundley has been at the Packers for a couple of years but will run a different system to Rodgers and whilst he will try to keep them in the playoff hunt, this is a tough proposition. The New Orleans Saints have actually improved on defence this season, and defensive end Cameron Jordan will be looking forward to facing the Packers’ beat up line. However, whilst the points make me nervous, the Saints have won their last three games by a minimum of seven points and so I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Jaguars @ Colts (+2.5)

This is a much harder game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have managed to win a couple of games and welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who lose one week and win the next. However, there is a big difference in the DVOA rankings and every Jaguars win has come on the road including their one home game win that was actually played in London so despite them giving points to the Colts I’m picking the Jaguars this week to continue the trend.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

The LA Rams are hosting the Arizona Cardinals at Twickenham stadium in London and this is a really fascinating game. The Rams continue to lead their division thanks to the turn around on offence that Sean McVay has brought about, but their defence is a surprising rank of twenty-two against the run by DVOA. Two weeks ago this would not have been a problem against a Cardinals team who had lost David Johnson and were really struggling on offence as a while. However, having traded for Adrian Peterson, they looked a much better balanced offence and were able to run out easy winners against the Buccaneers last week. How consistent this turnaround is I don’t know, and with the added variant of a trip to London I really don’t know how to pick this game. In the end, I’m going to grab the extra half point given to the Cardinals, but as much as I’m looking forward to watching this game, the pick is very much a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Jets @ Dolphins (-2.5)

This is another game that I find hard to pick as I really don’t have a handle on the Miami Dolphins, who for large parts of the season have just not looked very good, but then their defence will play tough and Jay Cutler will look like a competent quarterback. They welcome a New York Jets team who have already exceeded the expectations going into the season with their three wins, and although they lost their last game, the Jets put up a credible fight against the Patriots.

Both teams have similar DVOA rankings, but this is only the Dolphins second true home game this season and with a two game winning streak I’m going to pick them nervously, but I could easily see the Jets winning this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Ravens @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Minnesota Vikings are developing one of the better home advantages in the league and welcome a Baltimore Ravens team whose offence only ranks twenty-sixth in the league. I would expect the Ravens to struggle to move the ball on the Vikings in their noisy stadium and can see the Vikings covering this line, which is why I am picking them.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have specialised in close losses this season, so the fact that they are getting six and a half points at home is pretty much getting my pick straight away. The Dallas Cowboys may have Ezekiel Elliott, but their offence has not quite played up to last year’s level although they are ranked fifth in rush DVOA. Their defence is currently ranked thirtieth by DVOA though and in this game whilst I would expect them to win, I do expect the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers found their formula last week by focussing on the run and their zone defence was able to hold up the Chiefs enough to get a win. They are rightly favourites at home against a Cincinnati Bengals team who have fought their way back into the season after a poor start. These games are usually close, and whilst I’m not sure the Bengals can win this game I do strongly fancy them to stay within six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Broncos @ Chargers (-1.5)

The LA Chargers don’t really have a home advantage as even in the smaller stadium they are using in their first season in LA they have been unable to sell out and have often had a large numbers of away fans in attendance. They welcome a Denver Broncos team who had problems last week as they gave the Giants their first win of the season. The Broncos have some injuries at receiver and Trevor Siemian had to come out the game last week with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder but is expected to be back this week. I find it hard to believe the Broncos will be as bad this again and it’s got to be dispiriting for the Chargers to be playing in that stadium so I’m backing the Broncos to get things back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)

The New York Giants got their first win of the season last week despite all the injuries at receiver and this week welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who have slipped out of the top ten rankings in defensive DVOA and whose offensive line is struggling even more than usual. I fancy the Seahawks to find a way to win, but with an offence with a clear game plan and a defence that played better last week I fancy the Giants to cover this line at home, although it does make me a bit nervous.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Falcons @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am still not quite sure how the Atlanta Falcons lost last week having been seventeen points up at half time, but they managed it and this week they travel to face the New England Patriots who had the amazing comeback against the Falcons in the last Super Bowl. The Patriots have got back to the top of their division despite a defence that still ranks last in DVOA and who has given up three hundred yards of passing to every quarterback they have faced. The question about giving up leads will follow the Falcons until they have won enough games to put it out of people’s minds, but they will be looking for revenge in this game and have a quarterback capable of exploiting the Patriots’ defensive issues even if things are not going as well for them having lost co-ordinator Kyle Shanahan.

I’m really not sure how to pick this game, and the half point strongly tempts me to pick the Falcons but having won the last two games and with them generally finding a way, I’m going to back the Patriots.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Washington @ Eagles (-4.5)

This is one of the games of the week with the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming their division rivals who they beat handily in week one. Things have improved for Washington who are the Eagles closest rivals in the NFC East division and who really need this win to stop the Eagles from taking a commanding three game lead, which would be very hard to claw back.

The Eagle are ranked second in the league by DVOA but Washington are not that far behind them and now that Washington are enough weeks away from a pre-season that didn’t seem to prepare them for the start of the season very well, I feel it will be a close game. In fact close enough that this is too many points for the Eagles to be giving away. I just hope I’m not wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Week Seven Picks

23 Sunday Oct 2016

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So I’m feeling particularly bruised after Dan picking up another game Thursday night with Brian Hoyer going out injured and we go into today’s games level on a pretty poor forty-one points each, but for the record here’s how things stood at the end of week six.

Gee:      Week 6   7-8                       Overall   41-51
Dan:      Week 6   9-6                       Overall   40-52

Giants @ Rams (+2.5)

This is a game between two teams I don’t really like in a new London venue at Twickenham. The Rams are coming off two straight losses and found a way to lose against a Lions team despite Case Keenum putting in one of his best performances of the year. Meanwhile the Giants made hay whilst the Ravens secondary fell apart with the loss of Jimmy Smith as Odell Beckham continued to grab headlines. I’m really not comfortable picking either side so I’m grabbing the points with the underdog Rams.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Bills @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The Dolphins played much better against the Steelers, with Jay Ajayi having a breakout two hundred yard running game. This week they welcome a Bills team that are coming off a four game winning streak. The injury worries surrounding LeSean McCoy concern me, but at the end of the day this is a divisional game so I do not expect the Bills to have the kind of let down performance the Steelers put up last week. I’m tempted by the Dolphins in this one, but not enough to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Browns @ Bengals (-9.5)

I would like to see the Browns win a game, but please don’t let it be this week. I really hope and believe that the Bengals will win this game, but I’m not picking them to beat anyone by ten points, especially when the Browns seem to specialise in close losses this year.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Washington @ Lions (-1.5)

Washington have dragged themselves back into contention for the playoffs with a four game winning streak, and fresh from beating the Eagles they are off to Detroit to face the Lions. There is a large gap in DVOA rankings between these two teams, and with the Lions having a defence that I can’t trust I am backing Washington to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Colts @ Titans (-2.5)

It is a strange world where the Titans are in contention for the AFC South, but no one has run away with the division. However, they have still have a top ten defence by DVOA and their offence comes in ranked ten this week, whilst the Colts have really been struggling and I think this could be another game where they come unstuck asking Andrew Luck to do too much.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Saints @ Chiefs (-6.5)

I should not have doubted Andy Reid coming out of a bye week, but more importantly my concerns over their defence might have been too large as they fairly easily beat the Raiders. This week they welcome a Saints who can move the ball with Drew Brees, but I doubt their defence can stop the Chiefs. I’m a little worried about the points, but with the Saints on the road I am backing the Chiefs to win big in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Jaguars (-0.5)

This game could be a shootout, with the Jaguars seeming to always start slow and the Raiders unable to play defence. The Raiders have done better on the road so far this season, but more importantly I don’t trust the Jaguars fragile 2-4 record whereas the Raiders have lost to two of the better teams in the NFL so I’m backing them to win this pick’em game.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Vikings @ Eagles (+2.5)

The Eagles have come back to earth after the bye with defensive coaches having some tape on Carson Wentz and the changes on the o-line at right tackle after Lane Johnson’s suspension. The Vikings are on the road after a bye and are the only unbeaten team left in the NFL. You can’t expect them to stay unbeaten all season, but I think they have too much for the Eagles with their defence likely to cause the Eagles all kinds of problems.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Ravens @ Jets (-0.5)

The loss of Jimmy Smith caused all kinds of problems in the secondary for Ravens last season, and this resurfaced last week when he left the game with a concussion. It is unclear whether he will be back for this week’s game, but the Jets were so bad last week that it possibly won’t be a problem. The Jets are rooted to the bottom of the DVOA standings and with neither side of the ball playing well I can’t pick them to beat the Ravens. You watch them do it now…

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Chargers @ Falcons (-6.5)

The Falcons really could have won last week in Seattle and I have been impressed not only with their offence, but there are signs that the defence is beginning to develop. The Chargers are one of the better looking teams with a losing record, but after seriously tough road trip I think the Falcons will bounce back from last week’s loss in a big way.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Buccaneers @ 49ers (+1.5)

The Bucs are actually rated worse than the 49ers by DVOA, but having watched the way the 49ers lost to the Bills last week I will need more points before I pick them. I’m not entirely sure what Chip Kelly is meant to do with this rebuilding squad, but I don’t think they have the players to turn things around quickly. I don’t exactly trust the Bucs, but I’m nervously backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Patriots @ Steelers (+7.5)

The injury to Ben Roethlisberger has robbed us of what should have been one of the best games of the season and will cause the Steelers problems over the next month or so until he returns. They should be able to remain competitive in the division over the coming weeks, but in this game I can only see one winner as the Patriots continue to roll and I think they will cover despite the big swing caused by the Roethlisberger injury.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-1.5)

The Cardinals may be working on a new formula to get them wins after a slow start, but their offence is facing a Seahawks defence that is looking as good as it ever has and I just have this sneaking feeling that the Seahawks will get the win in what should be a great game.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Texans @ Broncos (-7.5)

The Texans stand atop of the AFC South, but they have not been that convincing with Brock Osweiler struggling in an offence that is rooted to the bottom of the DVOA standings. That said, the Broncos have dropped a couple of games, showing some cracks in the defence but mainly struggling on offence. They have to get back to running the ball as the balance of the offence was way off last week, but whilst I see the Broncos winning this game, I don’t see them having the offence to run out huge winners.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Thursday Night Pick

20 Thursday Oct 2016

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For reasons I shan’t bore you with I’m missing this week’s blog, and just popping up a pick for tonight’s game. I’ll try to get things back on track at the weekend/next week.

Bears @ Packers (-9.5)

The Bears don’t exactly have a great record, except that Brian Hoyer has been moving the ball on offence, and even when the Packers do play well they don’t seem to really go for the throat so whilst I see them winning this game, particularly at home on a short week, ten points is too big a margin for me to predict happening. Dan would like it known that whilst he is picking the Packers, he’s not confident about it at all.

Gee’s Picks:        Bears
Dan’s Picks:        Packers

NFL Week 7 Picks

22 Thursday Oct 2015

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In a way I don’t want to write this week’s column because if there is one position in the NFL that gets too much praise and blame it is the quarterback, not to mention all that gets written about them, but given the importance of the position you can understand why this is the case. I want to take a look at a specific aspect of the position, namely quarterback development, and use this to cast my eye over some of the more talked about players in the league.

The genesis of this column start with something I mentioned on the podcast last week when I was talking about what Greg Cosell mentioned about quarterbacks, specifically that he had been told that the greatest aid to a quarterback’s development was experience, and that the trick was to amass enough reps that the game slowed down for a player whilst they still had the physical tools to take advantage of it.

With the Bengals heading into their bye week with a 6-0 record for the first time since the 1988 season when they went to the Super Bowl, and only the third time in their history, much attention has been on their quarterback Andy Dalton. Even though he has lead the Bengals to the playoffs in each of if his four previous seasons, the fifth year quarterback has never won a playoff game and has earned himself a reputation for failing in high pressure games, particularly when they are nationally televised. A current theme for the Bengals’ season has been to ask what has changed for Dalton this year.

It is typical of how our society operates these days that we start searching for a quick fix reason for why a player has improved, but I think that what has happened in Cincinnati is a combination of natural player progression and the team surrounding Dalton. The obvious place to start is that the Bengals are much healthier this season on offence, tight end Tyler Eifert and receiver Marvin Jones didn’t play last year, whilst AJ Green was fighting injuries and was not himself. This year they are all healthy and the depth and balance has really helped the Bengals succeed. Another part of their success is that Hue Jackson is now in his second year as coordinator, enabling him to run through the full gamut of his play book. We have seen unbalanced lines and successful passes to backup linemen as well as the usual trick plays that Mohamed Sanu can offer with his history as a college quarterback.

So is the success Dalton is having this season simply a product of his environment? I would argue that there is evidence this isn’t the case, although these factors are definitely playing a role. You always have to be cautious with training camp stories, but one them familiar to anybody who frequents the Bengals.com site will be that Dalton has been working with the Dr Tom House in the offseason to work on his throwing mechanics. This in of itself is not a new thing as this is not the first season working with this training group who also look after Tom Brady among other elite throwing talents. However, this year he is also having them check in with him during the season, and already Geoff Hobson the editor of Bengals.com is writing here about how Dalton is retaining the new mechanics better according to one of the coaches from that team. Now I will remain properly sceptical about this, but it would make sense as he has now been to two offseason camps, and it is so hard to improve anything during the season that you would expect player progress to be incremental with occasional jumps as things click, and this is what seems to be the case with Dalton.

And this is not all, I recently heard Dave Lapham, ex Bengals linemen and radio commentator, talking on the Gridiron podcast about the fact that on a Tuesday, which is a player day off for the Bengals, Dalton is in the building working with the coaches on the game plan for the following week.

I don’t think that any single one of these factors is the one that we should point to and go that’s the reason for this year’s success, like so much in life it is more complex than that. It is also worth noting that not all players can be expected to improve at the same rate, but there definitely seems to be less patience in the modern game, and with a task as complex as playing quarterback in the NFL, which is so reliant on others doing their jobs around you, seems short sighted. However, it takes a special kind of owner to have the kind of patience with such a long term strategy if they don’t have an established coach or structure.

If you look around the league, everybody got their quarterbacks in different ways. The Patriots famously picked Tom Brady in the sixth round of the draft, where as the Packers equally famously picked Aaron Rodgers as he slipped down the first round of the draft despite already having an elite level quarterback already on the roster. Both have also led their teams to unbeaten records through six weeks, as has Cam Newton who was the first player taken in the 2011 draft, the same draft where the Bengals picked Andy Dalton in the second round. The Panthers have not surrounded Newton with the same kind of talent, but they have moulded their offence around their quarterback to take advantage of his ability to run the ball as well as throw. This seems to be working very well for the Panthers this season, and has done in the past, but it always worries me when a team exposes a player to the kind of hits you get when the quarterback becomes a defined runner, and at some point they have to transition that QB into playing a more traditional pocket passer role or their career will get cut short.

For several years people questioned the picking of Andy Dalton over Colin Kaepernick, who was the very next pick after Dalton in that 2011 draft, but whilst Kaepernick had early success and has played in a Super Bowl, if you compare the way their careers are currently progressing then the Bengals pick no longer needs defending. There are a lot of other problems in San Francisco, but Kaepernick does not seem to have progressed in terms of reading defences, going through his progressions or his accuracy, and this looks like it may well limit the length of his career in the NFL, particularly if the team don’t commit to shaping their offence around his running skill set like they have done in Carolina.

Finally, at the other end of the scale, Peyton Manning is our final undefeated quarterback, but whilst in previous years this would have likely been down to him, it has been anything but that this year. The window of physical ability seems to be slamming shut for Manning, and even though he was able to hit Emmanuel Sanders for a beautiful long touchdown, he is throwing too many bad balls. Not only that, but as a player stops being able to rely on their body, they start to make mental mistakes as they try to compensate, and it would appear that we are likely heading into the very final stretch of Manning’s career. Whilst it is unlikely that anything will change until this team starts losing games, the success the Broncos have had is likely not sustainable, and then it will be time for them to address the cyclical question that faces all NFL franchises, what do we do about the quarterback? There is no one way to deal with this issue, but how they are developed seems to be something that is too often overlooked in the media, even if not by the teams themselves.

That said, given our picks last week, maybe I should be keeping quiet about judging NFL teams and media, but let’s see if I can get myself back into an overall winning record this week.

Gee:    Week 6   5-9               Overall   45-46
Dan:    Week 6   6-8               Overall   43-48

Seahawks @ 49ers (+5.5)

The 49ers are coming off a win, and a pair of improving performances from Colin Kaepernick, but whilst the Seahawks are having some problems adjusting to their new defensive coordinator, I think they will have more than enough to cope with the 49ers limited offence. This is one of those lines that worry you, but I’ll put my faith in the talent of Seattle and hope that they continue to work Jimmy Graham into their offensive plans.

Gee’s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:    Seahawks

Bills @ Jaguars (+4.5)

This is a real tough one for me to call as neither team is truly at home. The Bills are dealing with injuries to Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins, who look not to be available for this game. The problem is that the Jaguars have not managed to put enough good play together consistently to win. The Bills managed to put up twenty-one points against the Bengals last week with EJ Manuel at quarterback, and Watkins missing for a chunk of time, so although the points make me hesitant, I will back the Bills in London

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Bills

Falcons @ Titans (+4.5)

The Falcons showed their weaknesses last week in New Orleans, but the coaching staff will have learnt a lot about their team and there were certainly plenty of coachable moments. I think things get back on track against the Titans who didn’t put much of a fight last week against a resurgent Dolphins team. The other thing that worries me about the Titans is their coaching, and I thought Ross Tucker made a very interesting point about the sacks given up by the Titans in his discussion with Greg Cosell this week. According to Ross, once a player has been beaten twice for sacks, the rest are on the coaching staff as they either need to help that player with the scheme or get someone else in there. I think the Falcons will get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Browns @ Rams (-5.5)

The Browns have finished their last three games within three points of their opponents, so my reflex pick would be the Browns in this one. However, the Browns have faced two bad defences in those games, and the Broncos were singularly ill equipped to take advantage of the Browns thirty-first ranked rush defence by DVOA. However, this week they are on the road against a Rams team whose defence is playing excellently, and who may not have a good ranking of their rush offence, but they have Todd Gurley who racked up one hundred and fifty-nine yards against the Packers before their bye week. I think this is a game the Browns fail to keep close.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Browns

Vikings @ Lions (+2.5)

The Lions managed to get their first win last week, but there is still a lot of dysfunction and whilst the Vikings are not firing on all cylinders in terms of their offence, I have faith in Zimmer’s defence. I think they have more than enough to go into Detroit and get the win.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Saints @ Colts (-4.5)

This is a really hard game for me to pick as I was really impressed with the Saints offence last week, but I still felt their defence took advantage of situational factors and played poorly against the run. The Colts however do not have a good rush offence, are struggling with Andrew Luck’s play this season, and are not great on defence. I’m picking this based on Drew Brees starting to look like Drew Brees again, but I’m not convinced about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Saints

Steelers @ Chiefs (+1.5)

The Chiefs season seems to be falling apart, whilst the Steelers have remained competitive despite the fluctuations at quarterback. It is never easy to play in Arrowhead Stadium, but I think the Chiefs will be coming to England off the back of a loss.

Gee’s Pick:    Steelers
Dan’s Pick:    Steelers

Texans @ Dolphins (-4.5)

The question about the Dolphins is whether the reaction Dan Campbell got is sustainable, but they certainly played more like the team we were expecting them to be in the preseason. The Texans benefitted from being more settled at quarterback last week, but their defence still ranks in the twenties by DVOA. I’m going to follow Dan in his blind faith in the Dolphins for this week.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)

The Patriots are playing really well despite some problems with their offensive line, but the Jets defence is too good for them to run away with this game and so whilst I’m not sure that the Jets will win, I’m sure the game will be closer than ten points.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Buccaneers @ Washington (-3.5)

I am really not sure about this game. The Washington defence has not been good over the last few weeks, whilst Kirk Cousins has been throwing too many interceptions. Meanwhile the Buccaneers have flashed on defence, and been inconsistent on offence as they have been going through the growing pains of a rookie quarterback. I’m basing this pick on the thirteen places between them in DVOA rankings and that the game is in Washington, but I don’t like it.

Gee’s Pick:    Washington
Dan’s Pick:    Buccaneers

Raiders @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Raiders have improved this season, but whilst the offence will likely move the ball on the Chargers and their twenty-sixth ranked defence, Philip Rivers only just lost their shoot out to the Packers, and I think that the loss of Justin Tuck will hurt the Raiders defence a lot.

Gee’s Pick:    Chargers
Dan’s Pick:    Chargers

Cowboys @ Giants (-4.5)

The Giants ran into an Eagles team who are struggling, but not on defence and that enabled them to win ugly against the Giants. The Cowboys though are a different proposition and I’m not convinced that the switch to Matt Cassel is going to jump start the Cowboys offence.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Eagles @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Eagles got their win last week with defence, and they have been running the ball better, but this week they face the fifth ranked defence by DVOA in the league. The battle between the Eagles offence, and the limited but effective offence of the Panthers should be fascinating, but in the end I’m backing the unbeaten team at home.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Ravens @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals may have struggled on the road, but they are welcoming a Ravens team who have a pass defence that will be ripe for the Cardinals to take advantage of. As long as Carson Palmer protects the ball a bit better this week then the Cardinals should have no problems in beating a Ravens team who are likely to struggle to move the ball on them as well. It feels very strange to make this pick, but the Ravens just aren’t a good team this year.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals