So I’m feeling particularly bruised after Dan picking up another game Thursday night with Brian Hoyer going out injured and we go into today’s games level on a pretty poor forty-one points each, but for the record here’s how things stood at the end of week six.

Gee:      Week 6   7-8                       Overall   41-51
Dan:      Week 6   9-6                       Overall   40-52

Giants @ Rams (+2.5)

This is a game between two teams I don’t really like in a new London venue at Twickenham. The Rams are coming off two straight losses and found a way to lose against a Lions team despite Case Keenum putting in one of his best performances of the year. Meanwhile the Giants made hay whilst the Ravens secondary fell apart with the loss of Jimmy Smith as Odell Beckham continued to grab headlines. I’m really not comfortable picking either side so I’m grabbing the points with the underdog Rams.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Bills @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The Dolphins played much better against the Steelers, with Jay Ajayi having a breakout two hundred yard running game. This week they welcome a Bills team that are coming off a four game winning streak. The injury worries surrounding LeSean McCoy concern me, but at the end of the day this is a divisional game so I do not expect the Bills to have the kind of let down performance the Steelers put up last week. I’m tempted by the Dolphins in this one, but not enough to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Browns @ Bengals (-9.5)

I would like to see the Browns win a game, but please don’t let it be this week. I really hope and believe that the Bengals will win this game, but I’m not picking them to beat anyone by ten points, especially when the Browns seem to specialise in close losses this year.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Washington @ Lions (-1.5)

Washington have dragged themselves back into contention for the playoffs with a four game winning streak, and fresh from beating the Eagles they are off to Detroit to face the Lions. There is a large gap in DVOA rankings between these two teams, and with the Lions having a defence that I can’t trust I am backing Washington to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Colts @ Titans (-2.5)

It is a strange world where the Titans are in contention for the AFC South, but no one has run away with the division. However, they have still have a top ten defence by DVOA and their offence comes in ranked ten this week, whilst the Colts have really been struggling and I think this could be another game where they come unstuck asking Andrew Luck to do too much.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Saints @ Chiefs (-6.5)

I should not have doubted Andy Reid coming out of a bye week, but more importantly my concerns over their defence might have been too large as they fairly easily beat the Raiders. This week they welcome a Saints who can move the ball with Drew Brees, but I doubt their defence can stop the Chiefs. I’m a little worried about the points, but with the Saints on the road I am backing the Chiefs to win big in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Jaguars (-0.5)

This game could be a shootout, with the Jaguars seeming to always start slow and the Raiders unable to play defence. The Raiders have done better on the road so far this season, but more importantly I don’t trust the Jaguars fragile 2-4 record whereas the Raiders have lost to two of the better teams in the NFL so I’m backing them to win this pick’em game.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Vikings @ Eagles (+2.5)

The Eagles have come back to earth after the bye with defensive coaches having some tape on Carson Wentz and the changes on the o-line at right tackle after Lane Johnson’s suspension. The Vikings are on the road after a bye and are the only unbeaten team left in the NFL. You can’t expect them to stay unbeaten all season, but I think they have too much for the Eagles with their defence likely to cause the Eagles all kinds of problems.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Ravens @ Jets (-0.5)

The loss of Jimmy Smith caused all kinds of problems in the secondary for Ravens last season, and this resurfaced last week when he left the game with a concussion. It is unclear whether he will be back for this week’s game, but the Jets were so bad last week that it possibly won’t be a problem. The Jets are rooted to the bottom of the DVOA standings and with neither side of the ball playing well I can’t pick them to beat the Ravens. You watch them do it now…

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Chargers @ Falcons (-6.5)

The Falcons really could have won last week in Seattle and I have been impressed not only with their offence, but there are signs that the defence is beginning to develop. The Chargers are one of the better looking teams with a losing record, but after seriously tough road trip I think the Falcons will bounce back from last week’s loss in a big way.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Buccaneers @ 49ers (+1.5)

The Bucs are actually rated worse than the 49ers by DVOA, but having watched the way the 49ers lost to the Bills last week I will need more points before I pick them. I’m not entirely sure what Chip Kelly is meant to do with this rebuilding squad, but I don’t think they have the players to turn things around quickly. I don’t exactly trust the Bucs, but I’m nervously backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Patriots @ Steelers (+7.5)

The injury to Ben Roethlisberger has robbed us of what should have been one of the best games of the season and will cause the Steelers problems over the next month or so until he returns. They should be able to remain competitive in the division over the coming weeks, but in this game I can only see one winner as the Patriots continue to roll and I think they will cover despite the big swing caused by the Roethlisberger injury.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-1.5)

The Cardinals may be working on a new formula to get them wins after a slow start, but their offence is facing a Seahawks defence that is looking as good as it ever has and I just have this sneaking feeling that the Seahawks will get the win in what should be a great game.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Texans @ Broncos (-7.5)

The Texans stand atop of the AFC South, but they have not been that convincing with Brock Osweiler struggling in an offence that is rooted to the bottom of the DVOA standings. That said, the Broncos have dropped a couple of games, showing some cracks in the defence but mainly struggling on offence. They have to get back to running the ball as the balance of the offence was way off last week, but whilst I see the Broncos winning this game, I don’t see them having the offence to run out huge winners.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

For reasons I shan’t bore you with I’m missing this week’s blog, and just popping up a pick for tonight’s game. I’ll try to get things back on track at the weekend/next week.

Bears @ Packers (-9.5)

The Bears don’t exactly have a great record, except that Brian Hoyer has been moving the ball on offence, and even when the Packers do play well they don’t seem to really go for the throat so whilst I see them winning this game, particularly at home on a short week, ten points is too big a margin for me to predict happening. Dan would like it known that whilst he is picking the Packers, he’s not confident about it at all.

Gee’s Picks:        Bears
Dan’s Picks:        Packers

In a way I don’t want to write this week’s column because if there is one position in the NFL that gets too much praise and blame it is the quarterback, not to mention all that gets written about them, but given the importance of the position you can understand why this is the case. I want to take a look at a specific aspect of the position, namely quarterback development, and use this to cast my eye over some of the more talked about players in the league.

The genesis of this column start with something I mentioned on the podcast last week when I was talking about what Greg Cosell mentioned about quarterbacks, specifically that he had been told that the greatest aid to a quarterback’s development was experience, and that the trick was to amass enough reps that the game slowed down for a player whilst they still had the physical tools to take advantage of it.

With the Bengals heading into their bye week with a 6-0 record for the first time since the 1988 season when they went to the Super Bowl, and only the third time in their history, much attention has been on their quarterback Andy Dalton. Even though he has lead the Bengals to the playoffs in each of if his four previous seasons, the fifth year quarterback has never won a playoff game and has earned himself a reputation for failing in high pressure games, particularly when they are nationally televised. A current theme for the Bengals’ season has been to ask what has changed for Dalton this year.

It is typical of how our society operates these days that we start searching for a quick fix reason for why a player has improved, but I think that what has happened in Cincinnati is a combination of natural player progression and the team surrounding Dalton. The obvious place to start is that the Bengals are much healthier this season on offence, tight end Tyler Eifert and receiver Marvin Jones didn’t play last year, whilst AJ Green was fighting injuries and was not himself. This year they are all healthy and the depth and balance has really helped the Bengals succeed. Another part of their success is that Hue Jackson is now in his second year as coordinator, enabling him to run through the full gamut of his play book. We have seen unbalanced lines and successful passes to backup linemen as well as the usual trick plays that Mohamed Sanu can offer with his history as a college quarterback.

So is the success Dalton is having this season simply a product of his environment? I would argue that there is evidence this isn’t the case, although these factors are definitely playing a role. You always have to be cautious with training camp stories, but one them familiar to anybody who frequents the Bengals.com site will be that Dalton has been working with the Dr Tom House in the offseason to work on his throwing mechanics. This in of itself is not a new thing as this is not the first season working with this training group who also look after Tom Brady among other elite throwing talents. However, this year he is also having them check in with him during the season, and already Geoff Hobson the editor of Bengals.com is writing here about how Dalton is retaining the new mechanics better according to one of the coaches from that team. Now I will remain properly sceptical about this, but it would make sense as he has now been to two offseason camps, and it is so hard to improve anything during the season that you would expect player progress to be incremental with occasional jumps as things click, and this is what seems to be the case with Dalton.

And this is not all, I recently heard Dave Lapham, ex Bengals linemen and radio commentator, talking on the Gridiron podcast about the fact that on a Tuesday, which is a player day off for the Bengals, Dalton is in the building working with the coaches on the game plan for the following week.

I don’t think that any single one of these factors is the one that we should point to and go that’s the reason for this year’s success, like so much in life it is more complex than that. It is also worth noting that not all players can be expected to improve at the same rate, but there definitely seems to be less patience in the modern game, and with a task as complex as playing quarterback in the NFL, which is so reliant on others doing their jobs around you, seems short sighted. However, it takes a special kind of owner to have the kind of patience with such a long term strategy if they don’t have an established coach or structure.

If you look around the league, everybody got their quarterbacks in different ways. The Patriots famously picked Tom Brady in the sixth round of the draft, where as the Packers equally famously picked Aaron Rodgers as he slipped down the first round of the draft despite already having an elite level quarterback already on the roster. Both have also led their teams to unbeaten records through six weeks, as has Cam Newton who was the first player taken in the 2011 draft, the same draft where the Bengals picked Andy Dalton in the second round. The Panthers have not surrounded Newton with the same kind of talent, but they have moulded their offence around their quarterback to take advantage of his ability to run the ball as well as throw. This seems to be working very well for the Panthers this season, and has done in the past, but it always worries me when a team exposes a player to the kind of hits you get when the quarterback becomes a defined runner, and at some point they have to transition that QB into playing a more traditional pocket passer role or their career will get cut short.

For several years people questioned the picking of Andy Dalton over Colin Kaepernick, who was the very next pick after Dalton in that 2011 draft, but whilst Kaepernick had early success and has played in a Super Bowl, if you compare the way their careers are currently progressing then the Bengals pick no longer needs defending. There are a lot of other problems in San Francisco, but Kaepernick does not seem to have progressed in terms of reading defences, going through his progressions or his accuracy, and this looks like it may well limit the length of his career in the NFL, particularly if the team don’t commit to shaping their offence around his running skill set like they have done in Carolina.

Finally, at the other end of the scale, Peyton Manning is our final undefeated quarterback, but whilst in previous years this would have likely been down to him, it has been anything but that this year. The window of physical ability seems to be slamming shut for Manning, and even though he was able to hit Emmanuel Sanders for a beautiful long touchdown, he is throwing too many bad balls. Not only that, but as a player stops being able to rely on their body, they start to make mental mistakes as they try to compensate, and it would appear that we are likely heading into the very final stretch of Manning’s career. Whilst it is unlikely that anything will change until this team starts losing games, the success the Broncos have had is likely not sustainable, and then it will be time for them to address the cyclical question that faces all NFL franchises, what do we do about the quarterback? There is no one way to deal with this issue, but how they are developed seems to be something that is too often overlooked in the media, even if not by the teams themselves.

That said, given our picks last week, maybe I should be keeping quiet about judging NFL teams and media, but let’s see if I can get myself back into an overall winning record this week.

Gee:    Week 6   5-9               Overall   45-46
Dan:    Week 6   6-8               Overall   43-48

Seahawks @ 49ers (+5.5)

The 49ers are coming off a win, and a pair of improving performances from Colin Kaepernick, but whilst the Seahawks are having some problems adjusting to their new defensive coordinator, I think they will have more than enough to cope with the 49ers limited offence. This is one of those lines that worry you, but I’ll put my faith in the talent of Seattle and hope that they continue to work Jimmy Graham into their offensive plans.

Gee’s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:    Seahawks

Bills @ Jaguars (+4.5)

This is a real tough one for me to call as neither team is truly at home. The Bills are dealing with injuries to Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins, who look not to be available for this game. The problem is that the Jaguars have not managed to put enough good play together consistently to win. The Bills managed to put up twenty-one points against the Bengals last week with EJ Manuel at quarterback, and Watkins missing for a chunk of time, so although the points make me hesitant, I will back the Bills in London

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Bills

Falcons @ Titans (+4.5)

The Falcons showed their weaknesses last week in New Orleans, but the coaching staff will have learnt a lot about their team and there were certainly plenty of coachable moments. I think things get back on track against the Titans who didn’t put much of a fight last week against a resurgent Dolphins team. The other thing that worries me about the Titans is their coaching, and I thought Ross Tucker made a very interesting point about the sacks given up by the Titans in his discussion with Greg Cosell this week. According to Ross, once a player has been beaten twice for sacks, the rest are on the coaching staff as they either need to help that player with the scheme or get someone else in there. I think the Falcons will get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Browns @ Rams (-5.5)

The Browns have finished their last three games within three points of their opponents, so my reflex pick would be the Browns in this one. However, the Browns have faced two bad defences in those games, and the Broncos were singularly ill equipped to take advantage of the Browns thirty-first ranked rush defence by DVOA. However, this week they are on the road against a Rams team whose defence is playing excellently, and who may not have a good ranking of their rush offence, but they have Todd Gurley who racked up one hundred and fifty-nine yards against the Packers before their bye week. I think this is a game the Browns fail to keep close.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Browns

Vikings @ Lions (+2.5)

The Lions managed to get their first win last week, but there is still a lot of dysfunction and whilst the Vikings are not firing on all cylinders in terms of their offence, I have faith in Zimmer’s defence. I think they have more than enough to go into Detroit and get the win.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Saints @ Colts (-4.5)

This is a really hard game for me to pick as I was really impressed with the Saints offence last week, but I still felt their defence took advantage of situational factors and played poorly against the run. The Colts however do not have a good rush offence, are struggling with Andrew Luck’s play this season, and are not great on defence. I’m picking this based on Drew Brees starting to look like Drew Brees again, but I’m not convinced about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Saints

Steelers @ Chiefs (+1.5)

The Chiefs season seems to be falling apart, whilst the Steelers have remained competitive despite the fluctuations at quarterback. It is never easy to play in Arrowhead Stadium, but I think the Chiefs will be coming to England off the back of a loss.

Gee’s Pick:    Steelers
Dan’s Pick:    Steelers

Texans @ Dolphins (-4.5)

The question about the Dolphins is whether the reaction Dan Campbell got is sustainable, but they certainly played more like the team we were expecting them to be in the preseason. The Texans benefitted from being more settled at quarterback last week, but their defence still ranks in the twenties by DVOA. I’m going to follow Dan in his blind faith in the Dolphins for this week.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)

The Patriots are playing really well despite some problems with their offensive line, but the Jets defence is too good for them to run away with this game and so whilst I’m not sure that the Jets will win, I’m sure the game will be closer than ten points.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Buccaneers @ Washington (-3.5)

I am really not sure about this game. The Washington defence has not been good over the last few weeks, whilst Kirk Cousins has been throwing too many interceptions. Meanwhile the Buccaneers have flashed on defence, and been inconsistent on offence as they have been going through the growing pains of a rookie quarterback. I’m basing this pick on the thirteen places between them in DVOA rankings and that the game is in Washington, but I don’t like it.

Gee’s Pick:    Washington
Dan’s Pick:    Buccaneers

Raiders @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Raiders have improved this season, but whilst the offence will likely move the ball on the Chargers and their twenty-sixth ranked defence, Philip Rivers only just lost their shoot out to the Packers, and I think that the loss of Justin Tuck will hurt the Raiders defence a lot.

Gee’s Pick:    Chargers
Dan’s Pick:    Chargers

Cowboys @ Giants (-4.5)

The Giants ran into an Eagles team who are struggling, but not on defence and that enabled them to win ugly against the Giants. The Cowboys though are a different proposition and I’m not convinced that the switch to Matt Cassel is going to jump start the Cowboys offence.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Eagles @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Eagles got their win last week with defence, and they have been running the ball better, but this week they face the fifth ranked defence by DVOA in the league. The battle between the Eagles offence, and the limited but effective offence of the Panthers should be fascinating, but in the end I’m backing the unbeaten team at home.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Ravens @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals may have struggled on the road, but they are welcoming a Ravens team who have a pass defence that will be ripe for the Cardinals to take advantage of. As long as Carson Palmer protects the ball a bit better this week then the Cardinals should have no problems in beating a Ravens team who are likely to struggle to move the ball on them as well. It feels very strange to make this pick, but the Ravens just aren’t a good team this year.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

It has been a fairly hectic week so having finally got a close Thursday night game, I had to abandon the coach’s tape half way through this weekend, and missed another write up which is pretty frustrating. Losing another game to Dan was even more frustrating, and changing your mind on the Browns and then watching them hammer the Steelers was down right infuriating.

I can just about live with the Giants just getting blown out by the Eagles; and I should have know that the Seahawks would not win by eight, even if I wasn’t expecting them to lose; I missed on the Packers by half a point; but that Browns win is bugging me as the signs were there and I second guessed myself. Worse than all of that though is how my team is playing since their bye week. It feels like the Bengals are faltering, and whilst they are beaten up at certain spots on the roster, I’m becoming increasingly worried that the playoff win drought is going to continue for another year.

So on to the week 7 games, and the lines are horrible. As I write this introduction there are three games that I have actually picked a side on so let’s write them up and see how things go. The only thing I can take solace in is that I keep hearing professional NFL commentators say they don’t know what’s going on this season either.

Gee:     Week 6   10-5             Overall   46-45
Dan:     Week 6   11-4             Overall   49-42

Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)

So last week the Thursday night game was decided by five points, but I don’t see that happening this week. The Patriots got themselves going against the Bengals at home, and then followed it up with a very solid win away at Buffalo. Tom Brady threw for over 300 yards for the first time this season, getting four touchdowns and making use not only of Gronkowski, but Brandon LaFell who led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. There were some notable injuries to linebacker Jerod Mayo and Steven Ridley, but the top of the AFC East looks a lot more familiar this week.

The Jets continue to struggle and I don’t see it changing this week playing in New England. Their offence is still sputtering and their defence is in danger of dropping out of the top 20 by DVOA. The only bright spot by the numbers is their special teams ranking of sixth, but in the introduction to the almanac, Football Outsiders gave a ratio of importance for the three phases as 4:3:1 in order of offence, defence, and special teams. They did lead their game for one quarter, and the defence gave Peyton Manning some problems, but having got themselves back into the game at 17-24. Geno Smith threw a pick-six and the game was over. They also could ill afford to lose another member of their secondary with Dee Milliner tearing his achilles. Having beaten the woeful Raiders in week one, they have lost by seven or more points for the rest of the season. The amount of points in this week’s spread does give me pause, but in the end I’m backing Patriots on a Thursday night game, which could get ugly.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Dan’s Comments: – Horrible. Patriots will win, but it’s difficult to predict by how much. I’ll pick them though this week.

Falcons @ Ravens (-6.5)

This is one of the few relatively straight forward picks this week. There are only so many ways you can write that the Falcons are too injured. They still have talent on offence, but they are ranked thirty-first on defence by DVOA and are not a good road team. The Ravens on the other hand are currently ranked second overall by DVOA, are ranked top ten in all phases of the game, and are playing well. I don’t think Flacco will be throwing four touchdowns in a quarter again, but I’m happily taking the Ravens. Now watch them lose…

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Dan’s Comments: – So the Bears pretty much took the Falcons apart week 6, and similarly the Ravens tore the Bucks a new one (arguably not difficult!). Comfortable Ravens win.

Vikings @ Bills (-4.5)

I don’t know what I am meant to do with this game. I haven’t had a handle on the Bills all year, but in last week’s game, the defence that has been so solid was somewhat porous against the Patriots. Kyle Orton has looked okay in parts, and is certainly a step up from Manuel, but he can’t throw interceptions if the Bills want to win.

The Vikings had a horrible loss against the Lions. In a game they have traditionally done well in, they struggled as their rookie quarterback threw three interceptions against the Lions. That said, the blame shouldn’t all be placed on Teddy Bridgewater, he was sacked eight times as the Lions pass rush harassed him so frequently that it is hard to imagine anyone thriving under those circumstances. They are thirtieth in overall DVOA and thirty-first in offence. In a week that requires them to go against another good defence I think they will struggle again. The points worry me, but I think the Bills keep themselves in the hunt in the AFC East with a win and that’s where I’m going.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Dan’s Comments: – Vikings aren’t scoring much, but Buffalo’s defence has been shaky recently. I’ve got a feeling it’s going to be Minnesota’s week this week though.

Dolphins @ Bears (-3.5)

The Bears needed the win last week to stay competitive in their division, and they got it on the road against the Falcons. It was good Cutler in week six, who threw for 381 yards, a touchdown, but more importantly no interceptions. Their defence somehow jumped up eight places in defensive DVOA despite them beginning the game without all three of their starting linebackers. The question is how much of their win in the last game was them playing better, and how much was the Falcons playing badly.

The Dolphins seem to be playing solidly, and only narrowly lost to the Packers. They are mid league in overall ranking and offence by DVOA, horrible in special teams, and top five in defence. There are two big bits of news coming out of their weekend game. The first is the continued questions surrounding their coach Joe Philbin, who took a horrible time out with thirteen seconds on the play clock, giving Aaron Rodgers of all people a chance to take stock and prepare the game winning touchdown, which he duly got on the next play. I’ve mentioned before about the apparent dysfunction in the way this team is run, and this doesn’t seem like great game management, although there is more to being a head coach than just that. Of more significance perhaps is the loss of Knowshon Moreno, who is done for the year with an ACL tear. However, Lamar Miller has been doing well this season, and I was impressed with rookie Damien Williams in pre-season so they hopefully can cope.

I am going back and forth on this game, but I see it as another close one for the Dolphins, and whilst I don’t know if they will win, I’ll take the points and see how I do.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: – Picking Dolphins again this week, partly through blind hope, and partly because I know it’s annoying Gee! Sorry mate!

Gee’s Reply: – I’m only annoyed at being three games behind to someone who is blindly picking their team, but the fault is really mine…

Bengals @ Colts (-2.5)

It may be the influence of Ross Tucker in the way he talks about ties on his podcast, but the last two games since the bye feel like losses and it seems weird to keep seeing them listed above the Ravens who have one more win. The Bengals could have won it on the last play of the game, but Nugent missed the filed goal. The offence is continuing to find ways to get points despite Andy Dalton losing more targets, and Marvin Jones has just been moved to IR and won’t be coming back this season. The defence seems to be getting gashed in the running game, and are struggling against the pass as it doesn’t matter how good your secondary is if your pass rush can’t get to the quarterback. It is too early to hit the panic button; the Bengals need to get Green back healthy and find some stops on defence, but I’m not sure this is the game to do it. It’s also worth noting that things didn’t improve on defence with the return of Vontaze Burfict, who announced his return by appearing to twist at the ankles of Greg Olsen and Cam Newton, which has to be dealt with. He is a player who plays on the edge, but there are fouls and then there is intentionally trying to injure someone. We’ll see how the league decides to deal with it, but the Bengals need him playing well and making tackles, playing the right way.

I was really impressed with both Andrew Luck and TY Hilton when I watched them last week. I also really liked the onside kick that was easily recovered to get them an extra possession. They were seventeen points up in under ten minutes and twenty-four up by the end of the first quarter. However, the Texans did manage to make a game of it and get themselves back into the game. I was fairly impressed with the Colts’ defence, but I’m not sure how much of that was the o-line and patchy nature of the Texans. In this game I like them to do well, AJ Green is out at least another week, and I’m wary of how much time Andrew Luck is going to get in this game. I’ll happily drop a win to Dan if it means the Bengals win, but I think they would need Green back to keep up in this game. I hope I am wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Dan’s Comments: – To make things worse, I’m going to pick the Colts. They’re starting to roll and I think the Bengals may struggle.

Browns @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars can’t quite seem to find a way to win. They moved off the bottom of the rankings by DVOA, but they had a chance to win their last game with an end of the game field goal but had it blocked. The defence seems to have improved a little, but Blake Bortles is getting very little blocking from his o-line, and whilst there are times when he holds on to the ball for too long, a lot of the time the defence is getting to him without having to blitz. I think they are going to be kicking themselves about this loss as it was an opportunity for them, one that I don’t think they are going to get this week.

I’m still kicking myself about my Browns pick last week, and it is not as if they only just squeaked by the points spread. The surprising thing to me is not what they are doing, but how they are doing it as the defence is only ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA and their offence is ranked number two, with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and without their star wide receiver. I don’t see anything in the Jaguars that makes me think that the Browns won’t cover this spread.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Dan’s Comments: – Not a difficult pick this one. Jags aren’t looking great, although they got agonisingly close to their first ‘W’ last weekend.

Saints @ Lions (-2.5)

The Saints were on a bye last week, but I’m not sure how much that is going to help them unless Rob Ryan has done some serious self-scouting and has a new plan for his badly misfiring defence. In fairness, the offence hasn’t been what you would expect and it will be interesting to see how they do this week against a Lions team that leads the league in defensive DVOA. They could turn it round and go on a run, but right now I need to see something from them before I will believe it.

The Lions are doing it with defence. They are struggling on offence, and look like a different team with Calvin Johnson sidelined with his ankle problems, but it’s probably best to sit him now and try to get him healthy for the home stretch. The defence not only leads the league in DVOA, but looks like it is playing that well too. They gave poor Teddy Bridgewater no time to work with last week, and having stifled Aaron Rodgers earlier in the season, I think they will do enough to win this game for their offence.

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Dan’s Comments: – Tricky. I think the Lions will just about have enough to overcome New Orleans.

Panthers @ Packers (-6.5)

I’m really not sure what to make of either of these teams. The Packers got a win against the Dolphins because Aaron Rodgers is really good at football (with apologies to Bill Barnwell), and they are well ranked in DVOA, but they did only just beat the Dolphins who are very up and down. The Panthers are lower ranked than the Dolphins, but beat the Bengals who are one place above the Packers, and seem to be up and down themselves. I’m a confused mess when I watch these teams. I feel like the Packers should win, and have more faith in them than I do in Carolina, but do I have seven points worth of faith? I really don’t know, so I’m falling back on taking the points, and my first pick as if the Packers win, fine I was wrong, but I’ll kick myself if the Panthers keep it close, which I think they might. I think…

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Panthers

Dan’s Comments: – Another difficult one. Packers will win this, but not by a touchdown, so I’ll pick Carolina.

Titans @ Washington (-4.5)

So Washington lost to the Cardinals, with Kirk Cousins falling to 0-3 as a starter this season. He threw for 354 yards, two interceptions, and three picks, which explains why they lost again. The problem seems to be accuracy, as he has good moments, but he can’t seem to protect the football. The defence is keeping them in games and this could be the game that they get one back in the win column. I’m not sure how good the Titans should feel getting that a win against the 0-6 Jaguars, given that they could have lost it. Still, all wins count the same and they did block the Jaguars’ attempt at a field goal. However, I think that Washington will be a sterner a test and that the winning feeling will be a short lived one in Tennessee.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Dan’s Comments: – This is the pick I’ve been struggling with most this week. I think Washington will start to turn it round this week.

Seahawks @ Rams (+6.5)

So the big result in week six was the Seahawks losing at home to the Cowboys. The Seahawks look like they lack a little bit of depth on defence this year, even before they lost Byron Maxwell to a calf injury (he is currently listed as doubtful for this game), and are not quite the same dominant team as they were last season, although they are still pretty damn good. However, Russell Wilson has proven himself to be an excellent quarterback, and it took a fine overall performance and game plan from the Cowboys to defeat them. However, I do think that they will bounce back against the Rams, whose defence is not playing up to the level that I expected and whose offence is struggling. It was always going to be a long season for the Rams after Sam Bradford went down and I don’t see that changing here. They are at the wrong end of the DVOA standings in all three phases of the game and although I have a slight pause at the points, I don’t think they cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Dan’s Comments: – Finally an easy pick. Rams are looking pretty terrible.

Chiefs @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Chiefs are the other team coming off a bye this week, and I’m not sure that I’m happy to see them back. This is strictly because I really haven’t got a handle on how to pick this team. I saw them several times in preseason and was impressed, they have some good attacking talent and Alex Smith may not be a flashy QB, but he wins games. They are ranked in the middle of the league for everything by DVOA, and have a blow out win against the Patriots on Monday Night Football as well as loss to the generally woeful Titans. I think that they are a sold football team, but that this won’t cut it in a division with the Chargers and the Broncos.

The Chargers are playing brilliantly at the moment, but injuries might be catching up with them. The Raiders were the first team to stop the Chargers covering this season, but Philip Rivers is still playing as well as any quarterback in the league, leading the offense to a ranking of sixth by DVOA despite having no running game to support him. Now the Raiders have occasionally shown some signs of life, and they could have been buoyed by their new head coach, but I don’t want to read too much into this game. I may regret this, because as usual the points total worries me, but I’m learning my lesson last week and I’m not second guessing myself.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – Chargers by 10

Giants @ Cowboys (-6.5)

The Giants ran into a brick wall against the Eagles. Their improving offence was shut out whilst giving up eight sacks, and their defence was gouged for 203 yards rushing, including LeSean McCoy’s first one hundred yard game of the season. The Giants currently are 3-3 and haven’t finished a game within a single score all year. I’m not sure what to make of their overall DVOA as a loss like this will send you into freefall, but dropping from eighth to twenty-first was pretty spectacular. So the question is what team is going to turn up this week, and the honest answer is I don’t know, but given the horrible injury to Victor Cruz I think they could struggle on offence.

Their opponents however, have done if not the impossible, then the very difficult in beating the Seahawks in Seattle. I should have given them the credit that they would cover, but I don’t feel bad about being unsure if they could win. This was the test that everybody wanted to see if the Cowboys were for real, and it appears that they are. DeMarco Murray has started the season with six one hundred yard rushing games, the only other running back to do that is Jim Brown, and any time you get mentioned with a name like that you know that something is going right. The knock on Murray has been his durability so I do wonder if they are going to lighten his workload as he is currently on pace for over four hundred carries this season, but the line is playing great, and the offence is currently top ten by DVOA. I think the Cowboys will continue their good record this week, and I just hope they cover.

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Dan’s Comments: – The Cowboys are impressing a lot of people I’m talking to at the minute. May that continue into week 7!

Cardinals @ Raiders (+3.5)

It is possible that Bruce Arians is doing the best coaching job in the NFL right now. He’s had a revolving door at quarterback and the team have suffered various injuries, yet somehow they have a 4-1 record. Their defence is ranked sixth by DVOA despite the offseason losses and current injuries. They took care of Washington last week and I expect them to do the same to the Raiders.

The Raiders played better last week, staying with the Chargers throughout the game, but ultimately couldn’t get their first win. David Carr has a really good looking arm, but was inaccurate throwing the last deep ball that was intercepted and is going through typical rookie growing pains. The problem is that in week three the Raiders hung tough with Patriots and the following week they were walloped by the Dolphins in London. It’s possible that they could play the Cardinals close this week, but I’m not prepared to back them doing it just yet.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Dan’s Comments: – Cardinals’ll be fairly comfortable this week against the Raiders.

49ers @ Broncos (-6.5)

This is probably the game of the week. The Broncos head up the DVOA rankings with an offense ranked number one and a defensive rank of two, and it has often felt like they haven’t hit top gear yet. This could very well be the game that Peyton Manning gets the record for the most touchdowns thrown by a quarterback.

The 49ers took care of the Rams in the second half of last week’s game, ultimately running out handy winners with an impressive defensive performance and some high powered plays on offence. How their defence is ranked number three by DVOA given the injuries and suspensions they have on that side of the ball is something of a question. However, with Patrick Willis now looking doubtful with a toe injury, I wonder if this is a game too far for this team. I’m going with my gut this time as the 49ers were playing the Rams last week.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Dan’s Comments: – Two pretty well matched teams. I’ll pick SF because of the Spread.

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers look like they might be the worst team in the AFC North. The big surprise for me is that they have one of the best receivers in the game in Antonio Brown, a running back that looks really good in Le’Veon Bell, yet somehow their offence has only managed ten points in their last two games. I didn’t think their o-line looked bad when I watched the coaching tape a few weeks ago, but something is clearly not working. When you couple that with a defence that is struggling, it got gouged for 158 yards last week, and is ranked a poor by Pittsburgh standards twenty-third by DVOA, you have a recipe for a disappointing season.

The Texans are so much better than last year, but they aren’t quite there yet. I’ve frequently declared my love for JJ Watt, but Arian Foster is also playing well this season, and Andre Johnson continues to be a threat. The problem is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is streaky and the team seems to be playing in the same manner. They did really well to get back into the game last week against the Colts, but you’re not going to win many games by going down twenty-four points in the first quarter. I just have a feeling that with the Steelers struggling, the Texans might be able to take advantage and even if they can’t, I’m not sure the Steelers are going to win by a lot. Cue a Steelers blowout, but that’s not what I’m picking to happen

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Texans in this one, I think.