Given that Teddy Bridgewater was dealing with a foot and quad injuries whilst the Browns were down to a third string running back and backup quarterback, it’s perhaps not surprising that Thursday night was not a high scoring affair. However, Browns’ running back D’Ernest Johnson took his prime-time opportunity to show exactly what he could do, running for one hundred and forty-six yards and torturing the Broncos run defence all game. In fact, the Broncos’’ defence struggled all evening, not helped by Von Miller exiting the game late in the second quarter with a sprained ankle. Even though the numbers were not spectacular, Case Keenum ran the Browns offence effectively and in the first half it looked like the Browns were going to win by a lot, but the Broncos finally got going in the second half and were able to turn the contest into a close game that they ultimately lost 14-17. This was the Broncos’ fourth straight loss after a strong start to the season and they really need to find something in this long week to turn things round. I was really impressed with the quality of the Browns’ performance given the injuries they are dealing with and the Browns are at very least going to be a difficult team to face all year and are still in the hunt in a competitive AFC.

As I turn my attention to picks it looks like a week of lines I really don’t like but in my infinite wisdom I didn’t give Dan and I the options of staying away, which is definitely what I want to do with a large chunk of these picks.

Early Games:

I was already looking at the Bengals visit to the Baltimore Ravens as the matchup of week, and in a slightly unusual moment it seems the American media agree with me. The Bengals at 4-2 remain in contention for the division, which is not what I was expecting from them and although the offence is somewhat boom or bust, the defence is ranked fifth by DVOA and the Bengals have been in every game this season with their two losses coming by field goals. However, the Ravens have the best record in the AFC and looked truly terrifying against the Chargers last week. The defence is only ranked fourteenth, which is a little surprising, but the offence is top ten and Lamar Jackson looks better dropping back to pass and has been less reliant on his ability to amaze running the ball. I’m really hoping that the Bengals can keep this one competitive on the road and whilst I would be delighted with a win, it would be a big surprise, but the Bengals have been a surprise package so far this season and that in of itself is a positive step given their recent record.

The next game I want to discuss is not exactly the matchup you would have thought looking through the schedule before the season started, but the Titans hosting the Chiefs has the potential for a fun offensive contest given that the Chiefs’ defence ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA and the Titans’ is a lofty twenty-eighth. It’s hard to see the Chiefs’ defence stopping Derrick Henry who continues to prove himself a statistical outlier immune to the usual rules of workload for running backs and somehow was the fastest player carrying the ball last week while being two-hundred and fifty or so pounds. However, while the Chiefs struggled last week, they may have found something late in their game against Washington using 12 personnel to improve the protection of Patrick Mahomes. This game has the potential to be a great shoot out, except if the Chiefs get rolling I’m not sure Derrick Henry is the right player to keep up with the Chiefs explosive offence despite his capacity to take the ball to the end zone on almost any given play. I’m looking forward to watching this one, but I’m not enjoying picking it at all!

Points from the rest:

• The vaunted Washington defence from last season is currently ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA and the offence is not exactly a hung amount better so the big question in this game is likely to be whether the Packers can cover this line unless Washington show some rapid improvement.
• The Dolphins come back from London having lost to the Jaguars and with a swirl of rumours about a potential trade for Deshaun Watson. The Falcons are coming off a bye having won their own London game and while neither team are good right now, the Dolphins were meant to be competing this season but haven’t looked like it for much of the season. However, there is something in the line, and I really didn’t think Tua Tagovailoa played that bad last week and with trade rumours swirling I’m sure the embattled QB is looking to prove his worth in this one.
• The Patriots look to have their replacement for Tom Brady, and the Pats have competed in some big games this season but so far they have only two wins so the seven and a half points they are laying looks troubling. That is until you remember the Pats have already blown out the Jets on the road and Bill Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks. I do wonder if this line is too high, but backing the Jets as underdogs has bitten me too often over the years to back them in this one.
• The Panthers have a top ten defence by DVOA but are a very mixed bag on offence and have slipped to 3-3 from a 3-0 start. However, the Giants are both bad and injured so I can’t back them even getting points at home given the Panthers have a genuine strength to gameplan with.

Washington @ Packers (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Chiefs @ Titans (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Falcons @ Dolphins (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Jets @ Patriots (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Panthers @ Giants (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Late Games:

There isn’t really a great game in the late slate of games, although there could be some interesting narratives.

The Raiders won their first game after the Jon Gruden resignation, but now we must see if they are coalescing as a team or if that was a one-week bounce. I have heard some commentary that the Raiders have been finding themselves in a position where people are able to get on with their jobs rather than having Gruden involved as he was to an unusual amount across the franchise before his very public fall from grace. The Eagles are not a good football team but are coming off a long week having lost on Thursday night and then trading Zach Ertz to the Cardinals. I like the Raiders to win this game and the line definitely concerns me but given how the Eagles have been playing I’m going to reluctantly back the Raiders.

The LA Rams game is all about the narrative given they swapped quarterbacks with the Lions in the offseason and Matthew Stafford has looked great running Sean McVay’s offence. The Lions up to last week had kept all their games close and were a tough team to play, but the Bengals of all teams beat them comfortably enough that head coach Dan Campbell came out and said he needed more from Jared Goff. It must be so disorientating for Goff, who went to the Super Bowl with the Rams in 2018 but hasn’t looked the same since and now finds himself on a rebuilding Lions team. Goff looks to be the kind of quarterback who needs everything around him to be right rather than a player who elevates those around him. This line is enormous, and it will be telling if the Lions get blown out again, but I can’t back all of the big favourites this week and something about Goff facing his old team has me taking the points.

Points on the Rest:

• The Cardinals are 6-0 and should have more than enough to beat a Texans team who beat the Jaguars in week one and been competitive in exactly one game since against the Patriots. The line makes me incredibly nervous given how easy it would be for the Cardinals to take the Texans too lightly but having lost by twenty-eight to the 2-4 Colts I can’t bring myself to back the Texans.
• The Buccaneers should have no problem in beating the Bears, but with Antonio Brown out injured alongside the slew of corners and the Bears having a top ten defence by DVOA I think the Bears can keep this one within two touchdowns.

Eagles @ Raiders (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Lions @ Rams (-15.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Texans @ Cardinals (-16.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Bears @ Buccaneers (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Sunday Night Football:

Colts @ 49ers (-3.5)

I am intrigued about this game and will definitely be watching it even if it does see the 2-4 Colts visiting the 2-3 49ers coming off a bye. The 49ers will have Jimmy Garoppolo back at quarterback, which they need with rookie Trey Lance being out with a knee sprain. The Colts have put together good performances the last two weeks and I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing how they do against a 49ers team who are ranked tenth overall by DVOA despite all the injuries. It may not be a great sounding matchup given their records, but there’s plenty to take away from this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Monday Night Football

Saints @ Seahawks (+4.5)

Here we are, Monday night and the big quarterback matchup is Jameis Winston versus Geno Smith. Perhaps more worrying for the Seahawks given that Smith has given the Seahawks competent play at quarterback, is the problems they are having on defence, ranked as they are twenty-second by DVOA and built around a safety in Jamal Adams who is a liability in coverage and who costs them multiple first-round picks in a trade. The Seahawks ranking of ninth overall and sixth on offence must surely slip by the time Russell Wilson returns from the finger injury on his throwing hand. That said, the Saints are a hard team to read this season as they are alternating wins and losses before going on bye last week. The familiar on the field up and down play of Jameis Winston has not disappeared under Sean Payton but the defence is ranked an impressive third by DVOA and you feel like the Saints should win this one. The line does make me nervous given Winston’s history, although I should say he has a four to one touchdown to interception rating but a 60.3 completion percentage. Part of me wonders if the Seahawks can keep it close, but I feel like Sean Payton is going to be able to find too many things against this Seahawks defence, which combined with his own defence going against Geno Smith means I’m going to eventually back the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

So I had a Thursday night where I pretty much couldn’t have been further from right so let’s hope that form doesn’t spill into today’s picks! Firstly, however, can I pick up any more points in the trivia competition:

‘How many of the 31 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces? I’ll give a score of  2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

So I’ve been through a list of teams and assigned those that I think play on grass but looking at the number I think I’m wrong. I’ll go for it anyway, so twenty-one.

‘We’re back to guessing again. Question for me is do I think more or less than half have turf… I think it’s close. I’ll say 15 have Grass.’

Titans @ Chargers (-6.5)

These are two teams in very different places and I have a lot more faith in the Chargers given they have only lost to very good teams for quite a while now. I’m hesitant because of the size of the line but given the frequency with which London games seem to be one sided I’m going to pick them to cover this line against a Titans team who gave up eleven sacks last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Bills @ Colts (-6.5)

I think the Indianapolis Colts are a better team than their 1-5 record indicates and having played four games on the road so far this season t this looks to be as good a chance as they’ve had to get a home win. The Buffalo Bills defence actually ranks third by DVOA but after Josh Allen picked up an elbow injury they’re starting Derek Anderson who has only been on the roster for a little over a week. This could bite me but there is a big difference between these two teams’ overall DVOA percentage and I’m backing Andrew Luck and his team to cover, even if I don’t like laying this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Patriots @ Bears (+3.5)

So I am very curious about this game as the New England Patriots will be riding high after a big win against the Chiefs on Sunday night football last week, whereas the Bears are coming off a disappointing loss to the Dolphins in the heat of Miami. Not only did the Bears lose, but Khalil Mack picked up an ankle injury although is expected to play. It feels strange to me that the Bears are actually ranked higher than the Patriots by DVOA, particularly as there’s a fairly large difference in DVOA percentage between them, but it’s not a figure I trust. The Bears had such a huge win over the Buccaneers I suspect it is skewing the figures and there is no way you can trust Mitch Trubisky even if Matt Nagy is at least scheming him a way to have a chance of success. I like the Patriots to win this game but in a matchup of the seventh ranked offence versus the number one defence by DVOA I’m going to grab this number of points at home for the cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Browns @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the first team to fire a co-ordinator when Mike Smith was let go after their loss to the Falcons last week. Yes, the defence has been a big problem but their offence has thrown for a lot of yards and scored points but more often not has not been able to overcome their porous defence. This week a welcome a Cleveland Browns team who had their first bad loss of the season last week, but who still have a top ten defence even if the offence is struggling. I don’t know how Baker Mayfield will look given the ankle injury he picked up last week but this could be a tough spot for them on the road but also represents an opportunity to get right. The extra half point worries me as I don’t really trust either team so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The Miami Dolphins remain in contention for a playoff spot thanks in large part to an unbeaten home record, aided by heat and humidity that has sapped the strength of their opponents. Last week they beat an improved Bears team and now they welcome an up and down Detroit Lions who have two quality wins, including the Packers last week. The emergence of Kenny Golladay at receiver and rookie running back Kerryon Johnson has caught the eye but only led to a DVOA ranking of twentieth. In fact, there is a huge difference in overall DVOA percentage between these two teams that’s leading me to join Dan in backing the Dolphins this week, even if Brock Osweiler likely being the quarterback again doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Vikings @ Jets (+3.5)

Things have picked up for the Minnesota Vikings in the last couple of weeks as they managed to beat the Eagles and Cardinals but their vaunted defence just isn’t the same this season and whilst Kirk Cousins has generated a lot offence, he has also fumbled a number of times and thrown three interceptions to go with his twelve touchdowns. This week they travel to face the New York Jets who are actually ranked five placed ahead of the Vikings by overall DVOA as well as having the same number of wins. Sam Darnold may have looked like a rookie quarterback but he’s looked like a good one, although his favourite receiver Quincy Enunwa is going to be missing for a couple of weeks with an ankle sprain. This is quite a lot of points for the Jets at home and with the extra half point I’m strongly tempted to pick them but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I could regret this but I’m nervously backing the always competitive Vikings.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Panthers @ Eagles (-4.5)

After a straight forward road win on Thursday night, the Philadelphia Eagles return home to host a Carolina Panthers who lost on the road in Washington last week. The Panthers still rank better by overall DVOA and the Eagles have been up and down all season, mainly due to the problems they’ve had on offence. The last couple of weeks have looked better though as Carson Wentz has found his feet behind centre and he got Alshon Jeffery back from injury. The Panthers not only lost to Washington, but needed a last minute sixty yard field goal to beat the New York Giants and with them being on the road for a second week in a row it feels like the Eagles have the edge in this one. I’m not thrilled with the points but I think the Eagles are on the up whilst the Panthers are having a wobble. This is usually the cue for me to get the pick wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

Texans @ Jaguars (-4.5)

These are two teams that right now are performing pretty similarly in that they both have top ten defences and under-performing offences. The Jaguars come home after losing two on the road and you have to think the defence will be desperate to put things right after shipping forty against the Cowboys last week. The Texans struggling offensive line could be just the tonic to facilitate that and the fact that Deshaun Watson is fighting a chest injury is perhaps not surprising given the amount of times he has been hit. It’s a big if, but if Blake Bortles can stop the turnovers this week then things could easily settle for the Jaguars and I fancy them to bounce back big now that they are finally home. The points worry me though, and in the end I’m going to grab the points in a game that has far too many unknowns for me to feel comfortable making a strong pick.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Saints @ Ravens (-2.5)

This should be a cracking matchup when the New Orleans Saints’ offence takes on the Baltimore Ravens’ defence and this looks to be one of the more interesting matchups of the week. The Saints are coming of a bye having won their previous four weeks, but this will be as stiff a challenge as they have faced all season and the Saints are actually ranked three places lower in DVOA thanks to the balance the Ravens have across all phases of the game. The numbers for Drew Brees on the road are markedly different and going against the leagues number two defence by DVOA in Baltimore where they Ravens only need a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team but it would not surprise me if the Saints win this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (-1.5)

I almost have no idea what to do with this one. After joining the chorus of people stating their frustration with the Cowboys offence, they came up with a game plan that scored forty points against the Jaguars vaunted defence last week and this week they travel to a perennially average Washington team who seem to specialise in being around 8-8. I don’t have a lot of faith in either side so it’s hard to pick. That said the Cowboys defence is just outside the top ten by DVOA and is fifth against the run so whilst Washington have done well when Adrian Peterson has got yards, I’m not sure he can do it week to week or against this defence. The Cowboys have been bad on the road but in this divisional matchup they have won the last four and getting points I’m going to take a risk. Watch Washington prove me wrong now!

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Rams @ 49ers (+10.5)

It’s a trap! The LA Rams are rolling and are the only remaining undefeated team having swept aside all before them and this week they travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers team who have one win so far this season. However, as much as the Rams don’t let up on their opponents, they have some injuries and it has been three weeks since they beat a team by enough points to cover this spread and they are on the road for a third straight week. I’m not predicting an upset, certainly for a team on a short week but I think the 49ers can keep this within eleven.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Bengals @ Chiefs (-5.5)

I am properly terrified by this game. Even though it wasn’t the worst defeat to the Steelers last week, the Bengals picked up a bunch of knocks and worrying injuries in the secondary. Now they are taking their twenty-fourth ranked defence on the road to face the terrifying Kansas City Chiefs’ juggernaut of an offence. This game had loss written all over it even before it was flexed into prime time, which has historically not been a happy place for the Marvin Lewis led Bengals. I think this will be a shootout and it is possible the Bengals will hang with the Chiefs but I don’t know if they can keep it close enough to make a cover worth a pick. In a second week of emotional hedging, I will hope to be proved wrong but I wasn’t last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Giants @ Falcons (-6.5)

This is a strange primetime matchup in that it pits a New York Giants team struggling to put together much on either side of the ball against an Atlanta Falcons team who are beset by injuries. The Falcons defence is ranked thirty-first in league by DVOA having lost key players up its spine and so their offence has not been able to score enough to win games. The Giants have two world class skills position players, but with the problems on the offensive line and Eli Manning’s struggles they have not been able to really take advantage of them enough to win. The ability of Saquon Barkley is breath taking, but he has been very boom or bust with long runs combined with getting stuffed at the line. This is a big line for a team with two wins, but the Falcons have one unit that is still in the top half by DVOA and with Matt Ryan at home let’s push the boat out as I just can’t trust the Giants on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Somehow we are at week seven and with me barely holding onto a lead in the pick competition we turn to the new week’s games.

Gee:    Week 6   8-7               Overall   46-47
Dan:     Week 6   9-6               Overall   45-48

Broncos @ Cardinals (+2.5)

This is a difficult pick given that whilst the Cardinal have shown enough on defence to beat the spread a couple of times, they are pairing a top ten defence by DVOA with the thirty-first ranked offence that has a fair gap between them and Cleveland at thirtieth and a chasm down to the Bills who are propping up the league. However, whilst the Broncos are somehow ranked thirteenth overall by DVOA and eighteenth on defence, they have also given up and astonishing five hundred and ninety-three rush yards in the last two games. Now I thought this would be historically bad, and whilst it is certainly not good, the Indianapolis Colts actually managed this feat last year and there have been two hundred such streaks since the merger. Now I focussed on this diligently because David Johnson is an incredibly talented back, but it turns out the Cardinals are ranked thirty-second in the league for run attack by DVOA so now I’m even more lost…

I am actually interested in this game, I want to see what is going on with both teams and take a look at Josh Rosen but picking it feels like a fool’s errand. However, there is a picks competition to keep going and so a side has to be taken. Working on my principle of picking the home team Thursday night unless there is a really good reason not to, and given that I’m getting points I’m going to pick the Cardinals but this is what is technically known as a crap shoot.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Week 7 Trivia

This week’s write up of the trivia is too good to cut, and I’m not just saying that because I pulled a point back on Dan:

‘Week 5’s kickers question and Graham Gano’s 63 yarder prompted an unusual bonus question in week 6.

My original Wk6 offering asked which College Football teams had produced the most Hall of Famers. Well Gee warmed up some of his grey cells and correctly answered Notre Dame but didn’t add to this Southern California, both of which have sent 12 of their number. I will, however, award Gee 1 point for the weeks best effort.

The Bonus then asked who holds the IN PLAY record FG distance. Dan was convinced that the record stood at 63 but I hadn’t shot myself in the foot as on 8 December 2013 the Broncos Matt Pater scored a withering 64 yards. I’m glad I specified In Play or we may have seen a new offence of ‘roughing the question master’ when I tell you that College kicker Nick Rose from Texas managed an imperious 80 yards. Yes 80. So it was just 1 point for Gee this week I’m afraid.

Calming things down, here is the question for Week 7 is, very simply – How many of the 32 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces. I’ll give a score of 2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

Buccaneers @ Bills (-2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have announced that they are starting quarterback Jameis Winston despite pulling him from last week’s game due to a shoulder injury, but whether he will be effective against a Buffalo Bills defence that currently ranks second in the league by DVOA is another question. To be honest, at the moment I would say that the Bills are the better team and I would expect them to win out at home against a Bucs team that hasn’t quite come together this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Panthers @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears managed to get a win in rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s first start, but he was only asked to make sixteen passes as opposed to fifty-four rush attempts. This is a very specific formula and they are facing a Carolina Panthers’ rush defence that ranks sixth in the league by DVOA. More worrying is that the Panthers’ offence is also coming together and I would expect them to win out after losing a close game to the Eagles last week. Sadly Luke Kuechly won’t be playing as he is suffering a concussion for the third straight year, but that is not altering my pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Titans @ Browns (+5.5)

The Cleveland Browns are going back to starting DeShone Kizer, which is the right long term decision for the team as they need to find out if they have their quarterback of the future, but it does seem that Hue Jackson is feeling the pressure of not having won a game this year. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have to restrict Marcus Mariota’s movements out the pocket but they got back on track with a win last week. I would expect them to win again this week but I’m not sure they will win by six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Saints @ Packers (+5.5)

As if Green Bay Packers didn’t have enough injury problems already with their offensive line, they’ve now lost Aaron Rogers to a broken collar bone in his throwing shoulder. The Packers’ backup quarterback Brett Hundley has been at the Packers for a couple of years but will run a different system to Rodgers and whilst he will try to keep them in the playoff hunt, this is a tough proposition. The New Orleans Saints have actually improved on defence this season, and defensive end Cameron Jordan will be looking forward to facing the Packers’ beat up line. However, whilst the points make me nervous, the Saints have won their last three games by a minimum of seven points and so I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Jaguars @ Colts (+2.5)

This is a much harder game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have managed to win a couple of games and welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who lose one week and win the next. However, there is a big difference in the DVOA rankings and every Jaguars win has come on the road including their one home game win that was actually played in London so despite them giving points to the Colts I’m picking the Jaguars this week to continue the trend.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

The LA Rams are hosting the Arizona Cardinals at Twickenham stadium in London and this is a really fascinating game. The Rams continue to lead their division thanks to the turn around on offence that Sean McVay has brought about, but their defence is a surprising rank of twenty-two against the run by DVOA. Two weeks ago this would not have been a problem against a Cardinals team who had lost David Johnson and were really struggling on offence as a while. However, having traded for Adrian Peterson, they looked a much better balanced offence and were able to run out easy winners against the Buccaneers last week. How consistent this turnaround is I don’t know, and with the added variant of a trip to London I really don’t know how to pick this game. In the end, I’m going to grab the extra half point given to the Cardinals, but as much as I’m looking forward to watching this game, the pick is very much a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Jets @ Dolphins (-2.5)

This is another game that I find hard to pick as I really don’t have a handle on the Miami Dolphins, who for large parts of the season have just not looked very good, but then their defence will play tough and Jay Cutler will look like a competent quarterback. They welcome a New York Jets team who have already exceeded the expectations going into the season with their three wins, and although they lost their last game, the Jets put up a credible fight against the Patriots.

Both teams have similar DVOA rankings, but this is only the Dolphins second true home game this season and with a two game winning streak I’m going to pick them nervously, but I could easily see the Jets winning this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Ravens @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Minnesota Vikings are developing one of the better home advantages in the league and welcome a Baltimore Ravens team whose offence only ranks twenty-sixth in the league. I would expect the Ravens to struggle to move the ball on the Vikings in their noisy stadium and can see the Vikings covering this line, which is why I am picking them.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have specialised in close losses this season, so the fact that they are getting six and a half points at home is pretty much getting my pick straight away. The Dallas Cowboys may have Ezekiel Elliott, but their offence has not quite played up to last year’s level although they are ranked fifth in rush DVOA. Their defence is currently ranked thirtieth by DVOA though and in this game whilst I would expect them to win, I do expect the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers found their formula last week by focussing on the run and their zone defence was able to hold up the Chiefs enough to get a win. They are rightly favourites at home against a Cincinnati Bengals team who have fought their way back into the season after a poor start. These games are usually close, and whilst I’m not sure the Bengals can win this game I do strongly fancy them to stay within six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Broncos @ Chargers (-1.5)

The LA Chargers don’t really have a home advantage as even in the smaller stadium they are using in their first season in LA they have been unable to sell out and have often had a large numbers of away fans in attendance. They welcome a Denver Broncos team who had problems last week as they gave the Giants their first win of the season. The Broncos have some injuries at receiver and Trevor Siemian had to come out the game last week with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder but is expected to be back this week. I find it hard to believe the Broncos will be as bad this again and it’s got to be dispiriting for the Chargers to be playing in that stadium so I’m backing the Broncos to get things back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)

The New York Giants got their first win of the season last week despite all the injuries at receiver and this week welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who have slipped out of the top ten rankings in defensive DVOA and whose offensive line is struggling even more than usual. I fancy the Seahawks to find a way to win, but with an offence with a clear game plan and a defence that played better last week I fancy the Giants to cover this line at home, although it does make me a bit nervous.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Falcons @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am still not quite sure how the Atlanta Falcons lost last week having been seventeen points up at half time, but they managed it and this week they travel to face the New England Patriots who had the amazing comeback against the Falcons in the last Super Bowl. The Patriots have got back to the top of their division despite a defence that still ranks last in DVOA and who has given up three hundred yards of passing to every quarterback they have faced. The question about giving up leads will follow the Falcons until they have won enough games to put it out of people’s minds, but they will be looking for revenge in this game and have a quarterback capable of exploiting the Patriots’ defensive issues even if things are not going as well for them having lost co-ordinator Kyle Shanahan.

I’m really not sure how to pick this game, and the half point strongly tempts me to pick the Falcons but having won the last two games and with them generally finding a way, I’m going to back the Patriots.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Washington @ Eagles (-4.5)

This is one of the games of the week with the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming their division rivals who they beat handily in week one. Things have improved for Washington who are the Eagles closest rivals in the NFC East division and who really need this win to stop the Eagles from taking a commanding three game lead, which would be very hard to claw back.

The Eagle are ranked second in the league by DVOA but Washington are not that far behind them and now that Washington are enough weeks away from a pre-season that didn’t seem to prepare them for the start of the season very well, I feel it will be a close game. In fact close enough that this is too many points for the Eagles to be giving away. I just hope I’m not wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles