Monthly Archives: December 2022

Competition Thursday: 2022 Week 17

29 Thursday Dec 2022

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We’re running out of regular season and things remain tight, though I managed to extend my lead over the festive weekend to four points but still plenty of games to pick in the final weeks for either of us to get ahead.

Gee:Week 16:  8 – 8Overall:  117 – 123
Dan:Week 16:  6 – 10Overall:  113 – 127

Cowboys @ Titans (+9.5)

It has been a really rough stretch for the Titans having lost five straight. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill going down with a second ankle injury this season against the Chargers in week fifteen led to rookie Malik Willis getting the start against the Texans on Saturday, but the Titans couldn’t get the win. That does not bode well for them welcoming the Cowboys fresh off beating the Eagles. There is a caveat that the Eagles were without Jalen Hurts, but the line demonstrates how favoured the Cowboys are and does put me in a quandary. My numbers back the Cowboys in this one, but Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has an awful lot of equity with me and so I am second guessing myself, even as I eventually plump for the Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick:     Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:     Cowboys

Survivor Competition

Thanks to the 49ers beating Washington, both Dan and I came out of week sixteen in our survivor competition over a fifty-fifty record, but with seven eliminations each that is hardly inspiring. This week Dan is opting for Eagles in a display of faith despite Hurts injuries, whilst I am hoping that the Lions’ push for the playoffs puts them over the top against the visiting Bears.

Current Score

Gee: 9
Dan: 9

Week 17 Selection:

Gee:    Bears @ Lions
Dan:    Saints @ Eagles

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2022 Week 16 Festive Picks

24 Saturday Dec 2022

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The NFL have really stretched out their weekend of games by moving the majority of the slate to today, but also having a single game in the usual slots across Christmas day and Boxing day.

Saturday Early Games:

The early slate of games looks pretty weird to me. The Vikings have a record better than their DVOA ranking would suggest and so that -3.5 line looks a stretch, particularly with the Giants coming off a win.  The only other line close to a default -3 to the home team is the Saints visiting the Browns and neither team exactly inspires confidence there. I feel remiss in not seeing the late surging Lions whose offensive success is behind them winning six of their last seven games and now genuinely looking at getting into the playoffs. I will be watching Bengals at Patriots with less dread than usual although I also am aware that the injuries keep mounting up and the Bengals are unlikely to go unbeaten to a consecutive Super Bowl.

Bills @ Bears (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Saints @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Texans @ Titans (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Giants @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bengals @ Patriots (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Lions @ Panthers (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Falcons @ Ravens (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Saturday Late Games:

There’s only two games in the late slate tonight, and the injury to quarterback Jalen Hurts makes the Eagles visit to the Cowboys a tricky one to predict, whilst the Washington team are hard to rely on but this is a big line for the 49ers to cover given how many quarterbacks they have lost this season, even if they are the top ranked team by weighted DVOA.

Washington @ 49ers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Eagles @ Cowboys (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saturday Night Football:

Raiders @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Raiders were the beneficiary of a memorable sequence of failure by the Patriots last week, but while the Steelers may still be adjusting to life without Ben Roethlisberger, they are 4-2 since their week nine bye and were competitive with both the Ravens and Bengals despite losing those games.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Early Christmas Game

Packers @ Dolphins (-4.5)

This is a strange game given the Packers problems this season, and that the Dolphins have now lost three games straight in a rough sequence of road games. I’ve heard plenty of talk that NFL defences have worked out how to squeeze the middle and stop Tua Tagovailoa from completing passes in his preferred areas and whilst I can see the Dolphins eking this one out, a five-point win is a bit rich for me. For Dan’s sake I’d be happy to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Late Christmas Game

Broncos @ Rams (+0.5)

I can see with the off-season move of Russel Wilson to the Broncos and the lure of the Super Bowl champions how this would have been seen as a sure fire prime time game before the season. However, both teams have an injury score below 70% at sicscore.com and are struggling. The Rams were the only team to put a claim in for quarterback Baker Mayfield after he was cut by the Panthers, but there are too many injuries and problems for him to put things right on his own for the Rams given he couldn’t own the Panthers’ starting QB job. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been awful on offence this season with the blame sitting between Russel Wilson and rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett. With the contracts involved it is much more likely that Hackett will be gone come the off-season than Wilson, but for this game it is hard to know which bad team will overcome, particularly as the Broncos have the only top ten ranked unit by DVOA thanks to their defence, but it’s hard to see Hackett beating a Super Bowl winning coach even if it has been a horrible season for the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Christmas Night Football

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Buccaneers are struggling, as good as Todd Bowles has been as a defensive coordinator, I think this year has proved that it wasn’t just the Jets dragging him down as a head coach, whilst Tom Brady finally looks mortal. However, the Bucs are visiting the Cardinals who are struggling again and have an awful lot in flux both off and on the field. The line worries me as this is a lot of points to trust the Buccaneers in laying, but without Kyler Murrary and on a four game losing streak it’s equally hard to see the Cardinals doing much…

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Boxing Day Football

Chargers @ Colts (+3.5)

It turns out that experience as a head coach is useful, but there were already problems with Colts before they hired Jeff Saturday mid-season. The thing is though, the Chargers are not a good team either despite having a really good young quarterback. Head coach Brandon Staley hasn’t been able to build a defence to complement the offence despite that being his side of the ball, and even as the staff changes  – the Chargers still have the same losses and injury problems. I do like the Chargers to win the game, but the extra half point does seem picking the Colts to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2022 Week Sixteen

22 Thursday Dec 2022

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I have had an interesting ten days where the NFL took something of a back seat as I finally caught Covid. In the process we’ve had some dubious weeks of picking and Dan has pegged me back once more to a slim two point lead. I’m upset at being three games below five hundred, but it really is coming down to crunch time again.

Gee:Week 15:  6 – 10Overall:  109 – 115
Dan:Week 15:  8 – 8Overall:  107 – 117

Jaguars @ Jets (-1.5)

I’m really not sure what to do with this one given the Jets have lost four out of their five games since their week ten bye, but welcome a Jaguars team who may be three games better than last season already and improving under Doug Pederson yet are hardly a model of consistency. That said, the Jags have won their last two games including a win over the Cowboys. The lack of rest, particularly with the Jags having played overtime on Sunday does really make me wonder about this line and so I’m nervously leaning to the Jets, but I would run a mile from making a pick if I could.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Survivor Competition

I failed to register an entry whilst Dan correctly backed the Chiefs visiting the Broncos and so we go into this week tied. I’m looking at my numbers and am going for the 49ers welcoming Washington as my best option, whilst Dan has come in with the same pick which is something I try to avoid so we’ll have to see what comes up next week.

Current Score

Gee: 8
Dan: 8

Week 16 Selection:

Gee:    Washington @ 49ers
Dan:    Washington @ 49ers

2022 Week Fourteen Picks

11 Sunday Dec 2022

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So I think it’s fair to say that neither Dan or I were prepared for Baker Mayfield’s performance for the Rams on Thursday night, so we’re both looking to get back to winning ways this weekend.

Early Games:

I’m not sure how many games jump out this week, there are some big lines but we both were finding picking difficult. The Cowboys hosting the Texans is a monstrous line that Dan and I are on opposite side on and neither of us are happy. I think the game of the early slate is likely the Jets visiting the Bills and that line seems big to me given how competitive the Jets have been in recent weeks. We’ll just have to see if my instincts are right.

Jets @ Bills (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Browns @ Bengals (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Texans @ Cowboys (-17.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Vikings @ Lions (-0.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Eagles @ Giants (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Ravens @ Steelers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Late Games:

A curious and small slate of late games see the Chiefs visiting a hapless Broncos team who are really struggling, the 49ers welcoming the Buccaneers and trying to maintain their form despite another injury to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Seahawks trying to build their playoff case against the Panthers enduring another wasted season.

Chiefs @ Broncos (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Buccaneers @ 49ers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Panthers @ Seahawks (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Dolphins @ Chargers (+2.5)

The Dolphins stayed out west after their tough loss against the 49ers, and will be hoping to bounce back against the Chargers who have won two out of the last five games since their bye. The Chargers have a promising young quarterback, but there’s flux around him and head coach Brandon Staley hasn’t exactly inspired in his second season. It feels like the Chargers are stuck in the same kind of place, regardless of how they rearrange the roster and coaching staff, so I do like the Dolphins in this one and with them only needing a field goal to win that’s where my pick is going.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Monday Night Football

Patriots @ Cardinals (+1.5)

This is not exactly an inspiring Monday night games with the Patriots having a long week of rest after a two touchdown loss travelling to take on a Cardinals team coming of a bye. The Patriots have two more wins than the Cardinals, and are pretty massive 32.1 % better by weighted DVOA. If I was a Cardinals fan I would be worried about all the key positions of my franchise, and whilst the Pats have plenty of questions of their own, I have to back Belichick and team in this one even if I’d much rather avoid the game entirely.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2022 Week Fourteen

08 Thursday Dec 2022

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Dan had a double-digit week thirteen that pegged me back a bit so there’s till plenty of time for him to take a lead as we come into the closing run of the regular season.

Gee:Week 13:  99 – 95Overall:  99 – 96
Dan:Week 13:  95 – 99Overall:  95 – 100

Raiders @ Rams (-5.5)

The Rams are imploding through injury and key moves not working out back in the off-season. They are also in multiple only game being played matchups in the coming weeks, which makes sense as the current Super Bowl champions but things are very different this seasons. The neck injury suffered by Matthew Stafford is the latest problem to beset the Rams and whilst he has a path to come back next season, at 34 years old with a Super Bowl ring you have to wonder if he will want to.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have won three straight and its hard to see them not winning this one so whilst the points do make me pause, I just can’t back the Rams in this one. That might just get the Rams a win tonight…

Gee’s Pick:     Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Survivor Competition

It took special teams and defence for the Browns to do it, but they got the win and so both Dan and I scored points in week thirteen. This week, Dan is going against the Jaguars as he backs the Titans at home, whilst I’m doubling down on my game pick tonight and hoping that doesn’t double jinx the Raiders!

Current Score

Gee: 8
Dan: 7

Week 14 Selection:

Gee:    Raiders @ Rams
Dan:    Jaguars @ Titans

2022 Week Thirteen Picks

04 Sunday Dec 2022

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Well, after complaining about it for several weeks, and tying to make sure I pay attention to the important lines alongside the numbers I managed to time a really good score against a difficult week for Dan and so picked up five points in week twelve. Unfortunately, week thirteen got off to a bad start with the Patriots singularly failing to follow the numbers but there’s a long way to go, and if I can consolidate last week then perhaps the social media colours will finally return to the orange and black.

Gee:Week 12:  11 – 5Overall:  92 – 88
Dan:Week 12:  6 – 10Overall:  85 – 95

Survivor Competition

So the surprising turnaround from the Raiders against the Seahawks tripped Dan up and so allowed me to sneak past him as his Dolphins did the business against the Texans. In a rare moment of synchronisation we are both going against the Texans this week with the Browns, because whilst I did try to find an alternative, I could not find a team I was convinced by.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 6

Week 13 Selection:

Gee:    Browns @ Texans
Dan:    Browns @ Texans

Early Games:

The jarring fact of week thirteen is that Deshaun Watson returns to playing football after his eleven week suspension and a $5 million fine for the multiple sexual assaults the NFL in their own reports believe he perpetrated. The Browns will be hoping that the conversation will return to football, but he will be debuting for the Browns against his old team who are also complicit having allegedly provided NDA forms and hotel rooms for Watson’s use and reached their own settlements with the women who are still impacted by Watson’s predatory behaviour. I’ve been wishing bad things for the Browns all season, and they must continue to own the decision they gave to essentially reward Watson with an unprecedented guaranteed contract for his behaviour. The Texans are not a good team, but plenty will remember Watson’s presence and non-presence at the facility last season, and I wonder how their motivation will be.

The game of the early slate for me is the Jets travelling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings given how much better backup quarterback Mike White looked compared to Zach Wilson, but the matchup that will drive the contest is the Jets’ fourth ranked by DVOA defence trying to slow down receiver Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings offence.

Otherwise, there are plenty of games with close lines that should be competitive but not a lot that leaps of the page.

Steelers @ Falcons (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Packers @ Bears (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Lions (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Jets @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Washington @ Giants (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Titans @ Eagles (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Broncos @ Ravens (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Browns @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Late Games:

There are two really good late games this week, with the Chiefs seeking revenge for two losses last season against a Bengals team who have got their season back on track in recent weeks. If that was not big enough, the Dolphins are travelling to San Francisco so that rookie head coach Mike McDaniel can take on his mentor Kyke Shanahan and the 49ers defence that McDaniel spent the last five years working against. You really can’t go wrong watching either of these games.

Seahawks @ Rams (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dolphins @ 49ers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Chiefs @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Chargers @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Sunday Night Football:

Colts @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

The Colts lost again last week, but Jeff Saturday did come out and acknowledge his fault in the clock management late in the game, yet they face an incredibly tough game ahead of the bye week with the Cowboys riding high at 8-3. My initial thought would be to take the points, but checking my numbers this line is actually the right side of a key number to have me going against my gut instincts so I am backing the Cowboys slightly nervously.

Monday Night Football

Saints @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Buccaneers are simply a different team this season, and whilst the Saints are also really struggling this year, I trust their defence enough to keep this game closer than this line suggests in a fiercely contested divisional game.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saint

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.