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2022 Week Thirteen Picks

04 Sunday Dec 2022

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Well, after complaining about it for several weeks, and tying to make sure I pay attention to the important lines alongside the numbers I managed to time a really good score against a difficult week for Dan and so picked up five points in week twelve. Unfortunately, week thirteen got off to a bad start with the Patriots singularly failing to follow the numbers but there’s a long way to go, and if I can consolidate last week then perhaps the social media colours will finally return to the orange and black.

Gee:Week 12:  11 – 5Overall:  92 – 88
Dan:Week 12:  6 – 10Overall:  85 – 95

Survivor Competition

So the surprising turnaround from the Raiders against the Seahawks tripped Dan up and so allowed me to sneak past him as his Dolphins did the business against the Texans. In a rare moment of synchronisation we are both going against the Texans this week with the Browns, because whilst I did try to find an alternative, I could not find a team I was convinced by.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 6

Week 13 Selection:

Gee:    Browns @ Texans
Dan:    Browns @ Texans

Early Games:

The jarring fact of week thirteen is that Deshaun Watson returns to playing football after his eleven week suspension and a $5 million fine for the multiple sexual assaults the NFL in their own reports believe he perpetrated. The Browns will be hoping that the conversation will return to football, but he will be debuting for the Browns against his old team who are also complicit having allegedly provided NDA forms and hotel rooms for Watson’s use and reached their own settlements with the women who are still impacted by Watson’s predatory behaviour. I’ve been wishing bad things for the Browns all season, and they must continue to own the decision they gave to essentially reward Watson with an unprecedented guaranteed contract for his behaviour. The Texans are not a good team, but plenty will remember Watson’s presence and non-presence at the facility last season, and I wonder how their motivation will be.

The game of the early slate for me is the Jets travelling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings given how much better backup quarterback Mike White looked compared to Zach Wilson, but the matchup that will drive the contest is the Jets’ fourth ranked by DVOA defence trying to slow down receiver Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings offence.

Otherwise, there are plenty of games with close lines that should be competitive but not a lot that leaps of the page.

Steelers @ Falcons (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Packers @ Bears (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Lions (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Jets @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Washington @ Giants (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Titans @ Eagles (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Broncos @ Ravens (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Browns @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Late Games:

There are two really good late games this week, with the Chiefs seeking revenge for two losses last season against a Bengals team who have got their season back on track in recent weeks. If that was not big enough, the Dolphins are travelling to San Francisco so that rookie head coach Mike McDaniel can take on his mentor Kyke Shanahan and the 49ers defence that McDaniel spent the last five years working against. You really can’t go wrong watching either of these games.

Seahawks @ Rams (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dolphins @ 49ers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Chiefs @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Chargers @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Sunday Night Football:

Colts @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

The Colts lost again last week, but Jeff Saturday did come out and acknowledge his fault in the clock management late in the game, yet they face an incredibly tough game ahead of the bye week with the Cowboys riding high at 8-3. My initial thought would be to take the points, but checking my numbers this line is actually the right side of a key number to have me going against my gut instincts so I am backing the Cowboys slightly nervously.

Monday Night Football

Saints @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Buccaneers are simply a different team this season, and whilst the Saints are also really struggling this year, I trust their defence enough to keep this game closer than this line suggests in a fiercely contested divisional game.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saint

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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2021 Week Thirteen Picks

05 Sunday Dec 2021

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It’s been another busy week that has left me a bit all over the place so here is a shortened and combined Competition Thursday and Sunday as I stare dispiritedly at the widening gap between Dan and I in the picks competition.

Gee:Week 12:  6 – 9Overall:  91 – 89
Dan:Week 12:  9 – 6Overall:  96 – 84

Survivor Competition

Both Dan and I were eliminated last week as the Giants made me pay for backing the Eagles while the Raiders got a late win against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. This week Dan is picking against the Lions and whilst the Vikings have had an up and down season, it’s hard to see them losing this one. I am going for the Colts visiting the Texans and hoping that the Colts’ winning streak holds for another week.

Current Score

Gee: 8
Dan: 6

Week 13 Selection:

Gee:    Colts
Dan:    Vikings

Early Games:

It’s a bit of a weird early slate and a lot of the games have high lines except for the Dolphins hosting the Giants, which seems strangely low to me given that the Dolphins have now won four straight games, but the closest contest looks to be the Bengals hosting the Chargers.

I’m actually somewhat nervous about this game as the Bengals have not won more than two in a row this season and after convincing wins against the Raiders and Steelers, my heart wants to believe but I can still see the flaws. The Chargers started the season 4-1 and have only won two of their last six games but are also ranked higher than the Bengals by overall DVOA. I had not really realised that the Chargers offence was ranked second overall by DVOA, but interestingly their defence ranks twenty-third which I would not have expected given what Brandon Staley managed as coordinator of the Rams’ defence last year. I think this should be a close contest that I hope the Bengals edge it but I’m not confident. I would be looking forward to getting another look at the Chargers if it wasn’t happening against the Bengals.

Points from the rest:

  • The Buccaneers keep rolling and should have no problem in beating the last placed team in overall DVOA, although the fact that the Falcons have five wins points to Arther Smith doing something right with a limited roster.
  • The Cardinals keep rolling and it’s hard to see the Bears springing an upset whether Kyler Murray is playing or not, which is particularly impressive given how effective Murray has been as a quarterback when healthy this season.
  • The Vikings has struggled to string wins together this season but the Lions have managed none before they were missing running back D’Andre Swift so things don’t look good for them this week.
  • It’s interesting that the Dolphins only have one more win than the Giants but seem to be heading in the right direction after the rough start while the Giants seemed to be mired in mediocrity yet again.
  • The Eagles had a rough showing last week and will be looking to bounce back against the Jets, who beat the Texans last week so honestly, I have no idea what to expect.
  • There are definitely questions about Carson Wentz in the big games, but the Colts have come on so far from how they started the season and the Texans could be the perfect get right game after a tough loss to the Bucs where they were competitive to the end.

Buccaneers @ Falcons (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Cardinals @ Bears (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Chargers @ Bengals (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Vikings @ Lions (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Giants @ Dolphins (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Eagles @ Jets (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Colts @ Texans (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Late Games:

The late games are little uninspiring given how the season has worked out, and the one that interests me most is the now 5-6 Washington Football Team taking on a Raiders team who proved me very wrong by beating the Cowboys last week on Thanksgiving. The Football Team have now won three straight, seeming to find their way with Taylor Heinike who was sleeping on his sister’s couch and studying before the Football team late last season and somehow appearing to be playing better defence without second year pass rusher Chase Young. I don’t have a strong side in this contest as it feels like there is such a variance in how both teams have played, but it does intrigue me.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Rams need a win and this week host one of the better teams to get one against as the Jaguars moribund season continues and I increasingly wonder how they beat the Bills in week nine.
  • The Ravens visiting the Steelers should be a marquee game, but for the first time in Mike Tomlin’s tenure as head coach the Steelers are not good, even if it’s not like they are terrible. The Ravens have had struggles of their own, but I think they should win out in this one.
  • Another team not living up to the usual standards of their head coach are the Seattle Seahawks, with Russel Wilson clearly not right coming of his finger injuries but there being bigger problems through the roster. The 49ers have been doing much better recently, though the loss of Deebo Samuel could hurt them, but they should have enough to win.

Washington @ Raiders (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Jaguars @ Rams (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Ravens @ Steelers (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

49ers @ Seahawks (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Sunday Night Football:

Broncos @ Chiefs (-9.5)

This could be a sneaky competitive game as I’m not fully convinced by the Chiefs offence and Vic Fangio is the author of the two high defences that have spread through the league this season and caused the Chiefs so many problems. Andy Reid’s record coming of the bye is excellent for wins and given how the Chiefs’ defence has been playing recently I think they should win this game, but this is too big a line for me given how the Chiefs have played this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Monday Night Football

Patriots @ Bills (-2.5)

This is pretty much everyone’s pick of the week’s games, and I will certainly be watching with interest, but I do wonder if this will be as competitive as it should be. The Bills have struggled on offence even as their defence continues its reign as the best in the league by DVOA and I wonder if there is a sense of déjà vu as they welcome the division leading Patriots who are playing good defence and efficient offence. Having had one down season last season, the Patriots rebuilt themselves in free-agency and the draft to make themselves the second rank team in the league by DVOA after a six game winning streak. The weather looks like it will be against throwing the ball so it looks like it could be a bruising encounter between two defences, though now would be a great time for the Josh Allen and his receivers to find some form but I’m not sure Belichick is the coach to do that against. I’m sure Dan would be very pleased to see me proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Week Thirteen Picks

02 Sunday Dec 2018

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We had a competitive Thursday night game that proved that defence can still win against one of the elite offences that have so dominated this season, but frankly it feels like once again the football aspect of NFL has to take a back seat to the management of the game. I’ll write more fully about that during the week, but the news about both Reuben Foster and Kareem Hunt makes it hard to feel enthusiastic right now. Still, there are games going ahead and so I’ll try to keep to normality for now so before I get to the pics here’s this week’s trivia questions.

‘Week 13 is a little more random but did appear as a fact in QI. I’ve checked and it holds up so:

What rule change did Oakland’s receiver Lester Hayes instigate?’

I am really struggling on this one, I would love to say that I have an idea but I’m scrambling in the dark and I’m sure I know the name but an answer won’t come. As he’s a named receiver I can’t go as far back as something to do with the early forward passes and I’m tempted by some kind of dirty block or tactic given the reputation of the Raiders during their heyday. I have no idea so going to plump for some kind of rule regarding celebrations after a touchdown.

‘I’m going to be honest, I don’t even know who the player is, so chances of me getting this one right I would say are slim to none. I’ve tried to think of something specifically that a Receiver might get pulled up for so I’ll say Offensive Pass Interference.’

Ravens @ Falcons (+1.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have found a spark in rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson that has seen the Ravens win two games in a row, and this week they travel to face an Atlanta Falcons team who season is over but for the games. The line might bite me but the Ravens have all the momentum in this one.

Gee’s Pick       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Dolphins (-5.5)

It is interesting that the Miami Dolphins are laying this number of points after their close loss against the Colts when the Buffalo Bills are also coming in with a two game win streak of their own. I know the Bills only beat the Jets and Jaguars but this line feels a little high to me. I can absolutely see the Dolphins winning but they don’t fill me with quite this level of confidence.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

Bears @ Giants (+4.5)

For me the Chicago Bears have demonstrated themselves worthy of trust over the last few weeks and going into this game they should have more than enough to beat a New York Giants team who couldn’t quite make it three wins in a row against the Eagles last week. The points are really quite tempting but not when the Bears are on such a run of form and have had a long week of rest going into this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5)

This one feels painfully frustrating as three and a half points is tempting, but with all that has befallen the Bengals in recent weeks, the visit of a team with the number three rush attack in the league by DVOA is the last thing our defence needs to face. The Broncos have the same record as the Bengals and so perhaps I am being overly pessimistic but I can’t see this one working out, although I could regret grabbing all those points.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Browns @ Texans (-6.5)

I have just finished watching the Houston Texans offence, which was effective in chunk plays rather than being efficient and who welcome a Cleveland Browns team who have two games straight. Whatever your views on how Baker Mayfield expressed his feeling about Hue Jackson, he has been very effective since Freddie Kitchens took over the play calling, but whether that is enough to cope with the top five Texan defence we shall just have to see. However, for me this is just too many points in what should be a really competitive game.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Rams @ Lions (+9.5)

The LA Rams come of their and travel to the Detroit Lions and this puts me in a real conundrum as I do expect the Rams to win but this is a lot of points, even if the Lions do seem to randomly put up good performances and even wins against good teams. Still, without Kerryon Johson I find it hard to see the Lions having the ball control to win this game but this number is too big for a team who have won a lot of games but not beaten anybody by ten since they played the 49ers in week seven.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Cardinals @ Packers (-14.5)

This is a huge line and given the way the Green Bay Packers have played this season it feels much too high even if the Packers are entertaining the worst team in the league. The Cardinals are actually over ten percentage points worse by DVOA than the thirty-first ranked Raiders but this is still a line that is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Colts @ Jaguars (+3.5)

This is one of the trickier lines for me in that the plus three and a half number is quite tempting as a home underdog but we just don’t know what we are going to get out of the Jacksonville Jaguars given they have fired their offensive coordinator and are starting Cody Kessler at quarterback. This might have given them a boost but with Leonard Fournette suspended after he went on the field to throw a punch last week we know that there is very little discipline in the Jaguars team at the moment. Meanwhile the Indianapolis Colts have quietly won five straight and their offence is really humming. The numbers might suggest a Jaguars pick but I can’t bring myself to do it and I just hope I don’t regret this.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

This is a similarly tricky line but for lightly different reasons that the previous game as the Carolina Panthers offence has looked really good this season but this has not resulted in wins over recent weeks. The stretch of three losses started with a blowout Thursday night loss to the Steelers, which can happen but the Panthers then lost by a point to the Lions and a field goal to the Seahawks and just can’t afford to fall further behind in the race for the playoffs. I like them to get back on track in a divisional game against a struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers team but the points give me real pause, and at some point I have to trust the numbers. Maybe the Panthers get right with a big win but right now I can’t predict them to win by more than a field goal on the road with what has been happening.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Jets @ Titans (-9.5)

This a very big number considering that the New York Jets are only ranked two places lower than the Tennessee Titans by DOVA and only 2.8% worse. It might be further confused by the up and down nature of the Titans results as in the last four games they have beaten the Cowboys by fourteen and the Patriots by twenty-four but then lost by twenty-eight to the Colts and by seventeen to the Texans. It feels like they could very well get back on track against a Jets team who are really struggling but is ten points really a realistic winning margin. It could be given their past, but I don’t think I can quite pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Titans

Chiefs @ Raiders (+14.5)

The Oakland Raiders may not be the worst team in the league by DVOA, but they are not looking to win now and that has shown up in their performance this season. However, this is a huge line and yes the Chiefs are coming off a bye, but they have also just cut running back Kareem Hunt after video of him kicking and shoving a woman was released by TMZ. I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than win, and they may even be determined to show that the cutting of their star running back won’t hamper their chances but this line is just too rich for me given the circumstances.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Vikings @ Patriots (-6.5)

This looks like a great game as the Minnesota Vikings visit the New England Patriots coming off a good win against the Packers where there defence looked like it was coming back to something like its normal form. The Patriots themselves looked better in their win over the Jets last week but there are still questions about their offence and whilst I can see why they are favourites, this looks like too many points to me. That is often a foolish thing to say about the Patriots but there are enough injuries and questions about this iteration of the Patriots that I’m happy to back the Vikings to keep it with seven. Of course if I’m wrong this could ultimately lead to the blog being in Vikings colours next season!

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

49ers @ Seahawks (-10.5)

This game is a curious one to me in terms of picking as this number is not that far off what I might expect given how these two teams have played in recent weeks but it is a lot. The San Francisco 49ers have really struggled this season and having lost by twenty points to the Buccaneers last week I find it hard to see them being that competitive against a Seahawks team who seem to be genuinely pretty good and have won their last five meetings with the 49ers at Century Link field. The divisional aspect of this game does make me pause but given the relative form I’m going to nervously back the Seahawks.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Chargers @ Steelers (-3.5)

This looks to be the marquee matchup of the week with the LA Chargers heading into Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team where this always seems to be some kind of low key drama even if nothing major has occurred. Of course last week the Steelers lost to the Denver Broncos on the road but the then the Steelers are worse on the road and the Broncos are better at home so that doesn’t mean the Steelers can’t bounce back this week. However, the extra half point does concern me given that the Chargers are ranked a couple of places higher by DVOA and that is just enough to make me pick the Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Washington @ Eagles (-6.5)

This is a huge game for the Philadelphia Eagles who have to win this game to stay a game behind the Cowboys so they stand some kind of chance of catching when they face each other in week fourteen. It is very possibly too late for the Eagles given that the Cowboys look great at the moment and they also have to face the Rams and the Texans. I can see them winning this game against a Washington side who are injured and making the news for all of the wrong reason but to do so by a touchdown when it took them until the fourth quarter to get a lead against the Giants seems unlikely. I am not saying it can’t happen given the circumstances, but I’m not sure either team are what you would call good at the moment.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Thirteen

29 Thursday Nov 2018

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So we roll into the week thirteen picks with me one point ahead of Dan’s dad and nine over Dan so let’s see what this week holds.

Gee: Week 12 11-4 Overall 92-84
Dan: Week 12 6-9 Overall 83-93

Saints @ Cowboys (+7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have dragged themselves into the race for the NFC East thanks to a three game win streak that includes two victories over divisional opponents but that run of good from is about to crash into the juggernaut that is the New Orleans Saints. Not only do the Cowboys have to contend with Drew Brees, but thanks to playing in a dome they don’t even have bad weather as a factor to hamper the veteran quarterback. I’m not sure how much help that would be given the effectiveness of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in the running game and though their defence only ranks fourteenth by DVOA, that is more than effective given with the offensive efficiency the Saints possess. I can see the value argument that the home team on a Thursday night getting seven and a half points should be a good bet, and I may well regret this, but I just can’t look past the Saints given their form. The game should be a cracker and the Cowboys could well prove me wrong but I don’t think them covering this line is the more likely event to occur.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

‘Saints for me I think tonight. Really struggling to pick with any level of certainty here but I think the Saints run is going to continue, and they’ll win by more than a TD.’

Week Thirteen Trivia

‘As we close in on the end of this season every point matters and Gee currently has a slender 2 point lead in the Trivia stakes.

The main Picks league is even closer and having knocked lumps out of each other in Week 12 no one is more surprised than myself that it’s still tight at the top.

Week 12 Trivia asked a very simple question – At which college did Peyton Manning play?

It’s a question that more people will know the answer to, but perhaps why that snippet of information had stuck. Well the answer is:

University of Tennessee Volunteers from 1994 to 1997

Even I’m not so picky as to insist on the Volunteers bit but for the first time since week 8 both Dan and Gee scored a point.

Week 13 is a little more random but did appear as a fact in QI. I’ve checked and it holds up so:

What rule change did Oakland’s receiver Lester Hayes instigate?

I’m intrigued as to the answers I get on this one.’

Week Thirteen Picks

03 Sunday Dec 2017

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Vikings @ Flacons (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons have really come on in recent weeks and have almost quietly got themselves to a 7-4 record. Meanwhile the Minnesota Vikings have been playing really well all season and this should be a great game. I’m going to grab the points in a game I can see the Vikings winning despite being on the road but it is not exactly hard to see the Falcons winning.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Patriots @ Bills (+8.5)

This is a tricky game to pick as the New England Patriots keep covering huge lines but the Buffalo Bills got their season back on track last week as they ground out a win against the Chiefs. However the Chiefs have been stuttering for weeks now, whilst the Patriots have rounded into form on defence and Tom Brady has been carrying them all season. It’s not that the Bills stand no chance of covering this line but I’m not going to pick it as the most likely result.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

49ers @ Bears (-3.5)

The Chicago Bears lost heavily to the Eagles last week and only have two more wins than the 49ers. The San Francisco 49ers are starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback for the first time and a lot of people are excited about this given how he looked in four plays last week. I’m not sure if this is going to launch a huge turnaround given the quantity of injuries the 49ers have suffered, but I don’t trust the Bears to win by four or more so I’m backing the 49ers to at least keep it close.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Broncos @ Dolphins (-0.5)

This is a horrible game to pick as neither the Miami Dolphins nor the Denver Broncos inspire confidence. Both teams have problems at quarterback and the Dolphins are stuck at the bottom of the league according to overall DVOA. I have more faith in Adam Gase as a head coach than Vance Joseph at the moment and with the Dolphins playing at home I am going to pick them but you would avoid picking this game if you could.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Ravens (-2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have got themselves to 6-5 thanks to a defence and special teams unit that both lead the league in DVOA and have overcome an anaemic offence. This week they welcome a Detroit Lions team that play tough but have struggled to win consistently. This is one of those games where I find it hard to have a firm opinion on what will happen, but I know what I am getting from the Ravens’ number one by DVOA units and so despite the poor offence, I’m backing the Ravens to grind it out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Buccaneers @ Packers (-2.5)

The Green Bay Packers have been struggling with Brett Hundley as their quarterback, which is understandable but his up and down play makes them a hard team to predict. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not looked like the team many were expecting coming into the season and I’m not sure Jameis Winston being cleared to play clarifies the situation any. I have very little faith in either team so I am going to grab the points but I don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Texans @ Titans (-6.5)

The Houston Texans have managed a win since rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson went down for the season with his knee injury, but this combined with losing JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus from the defence of the Texans ha really hampered them. The Tennessee Titans might not have caught the eye with their play, but they are joint top of the AFC South. I backed the Titans last week and they only just covered against the Colts so this line worries me but in the end I’m going to back the healthier team who still have something to play for.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Colts @ Jaguars (-9.5)

So head coach Doug Marone came out last week and said he got greedy at the end of the game that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Cardinals. This week they welcome the Indianapolis Colts who are really struggling and on the road I can’t see them beating the Jaguars. My concern though is whether the Jaguars can cover this big a line but having beaten the Colts 27-0 in Indianapolis, I’m going to back them to win big in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Chiefs @ Jets (+3.5)

Since starting the season 5-0 the Kansas City Chiefs have really struggled and having lost to the Bills last week they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jets have struggled in the last five games, only winning one of them so it is hard to know what will happen in this game. I am really tempted by getting the points at home and given these teams respective form that is what I am going to pick but who knows what will actually happen in the game.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Browns @ Chargers (-13.5)

It seems strange for the LA Chargers to be getting this many points, particularly given that they don’t have much of a home advantage, but the Cleveland Browns are winless for a reason and haven’t even kept a game to a single digit loss since week seven. Perhaps the addition of Josh Gordon will give them a spark on offence, but the Chargers have played well in the last couple of weeks and with the extra rest coming of their Thanksgiving victory over the Cowboys I’m backing them to win. Can they cover this line? In a case of the Browns being bad vs my rule on double digit spreads I’m falling on side of not trusting the Browns. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Giants @ Raiders (-6.5)

I see very little in the Oakland Raiders that excites me, particularly given the injury to Amari Cooper which when combined with the suspension of Michael Crabtree means that Derek Carr has lost both his starting receivers. However, with the New York Giants benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith, I don’t exactly have a lot of faith in the Giants either. In the end I am going to back the Raiders going against a team flying across the country who have just sat their two time Super Bowl winning quarterback. Even if Eli Manning has not been playing well, it doesn’t feel like the situation was handled well and I can’t trust the Giants after this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Rams @ Cardinals (+6.5)

Who would have thought before the season that the LA Rams would be giving six and a half points to any team on the road, but they have been truly transformed and with their win against the Saints last week the Rams got back to winning ways. I expect them to have too much for the Arizona Cardinals who are down to their third string quarterback but have been competitive thanks to a top ten defence by DVOA, yet I can’t see them keeping up with the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Panthers @ Saints (-3.5)

The New Orleans Saints couldn’t win on the road last week without two corners and pass rusher Alex Okafor lost for the season. However, this week they are at home facing a Carolina Panthers team who have been very up and down on offence but whose defence has played really well. This should be one of the more interesting games of the season, but in the end I think the Saints will run out winners thanks to their balance on offence and defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Eagles @ Seahawks (+5.5)

I’m not sure I remember a time when the Seattle Seahawks were getting this many points at home, but they face an uphill struggle going against the Philadelphia Eagles without so many members of the Legion of Boon. Not only are Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor gone for the season, but the Seattle offensive line is facing a fearsome pass rush and whilst Russell Wilson is a magician, there are limits to what he can do. I expect this to be a fascinating game, and may well be closer on the field than the scoreboard suggests, but I expect the Eagles good form to continue.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Steelers @ Bengals (+6.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off two straight wins and really have to win this game if they are to maintain their slim hopes of the playoffs. The problem is that whilst the Pittsburgh Steelers have played down to the level of their opposition multiple times, they are still 9-2 and I expect them to win this one. That said, getting this many points at home in a game that is often close I am going to back to the Bengals to cover and hope for a win. I do expect to be disappointed come Tuesday morning though.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Week Thirteen Picks

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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Another okay week for both of us, but we are still well behind a winning record, and Dan maintains his single win lead.

Gee:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   82-95
Dan:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   83-94

Chiefs @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Chiefs are coming off a win, but had to play an entire extra quarter to get it and so with them on the road against a strong Falcons team I am backing the Falcons to cover this line, even if it does make me a little nervous as the addition of Justin Houston really added a spark to the Chief’s defence last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

49ers @ Bears (-2.5)

There is very little to separate these teams, with the Bears suffering so many injuries, but getting an okay performance from Matt Barkley whilst the 49ers have struggled since their week one win, but Colin Kaepernick was looking better at quarterback last week. In the end I am going to back the home team in this one, with the 49ers travelling across the country but I do not feel confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Eagles @ Bengals (+1.5)

The Bengals keep things close but lose this season, but I have been dreading the sight of Fletcher Cox going up against an offensive line that has not protected well this season. I would love to be proven wrong, but with all that has happened with the Bengals this season, I can’t pick them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Broncos @ Jaguars (+5.5)

This pits a team that played and entire extra quarter against a Jaguars team who have been truly horrible. The last two times I have seen this happen in recent years both teams who played the fifth quarter have lost. I don’t want to back the Jaguars in this one, but the situation is telling me to and as they only have to keep within six I am very nervously going to back them to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Lions @ Saints (-5.5)

This is a lot of points for the Saints to be giving up, and whilst I trust Drew Brees and their offence to get points, the Lions have been finding a way all season and I think they keep this one closer than six. I don’t like any of my picks this week it seems…

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Texans @ Packers (-5.5)

This is another horrible game for me to call as the Texans have been struggling on offence, but have a very competent defence. This week they visit a Packers team who got a very solid win last week with Aaron Rodgers looking more like himself, but this team is still flawed. The Texans have the options on offence to hurt a weekend Packers’ secondary, but Brock Osweiler has not been good this season. I don’t want to pick the Packers to beat anyone by six, but given that the Texans record is a product of their division I’ll pick lightening to strike twice in Green Bay.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Rams @ Patriots (-13.5)

After giving up forty-nine points to a Saints team with an axe to grind last week, I might have been tempted to pick the Patriots to cover this line earlier in the week, but with Rob Gronkowski done for the season with a back injury, I think the Rams can keep this game closer than two touchdowns. I’m certainly not going to say they can win as they come across the country to play Brady in New England, but a sneaky cover I think is on the cards.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

It looks as if the Dolphins will have two of their starting offensive line back in left tackle Branden Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil, but they will be going up against one of the better defences in the league in the Ravens. The Baltimore team’s offence has been struggling though, and giving up that extra half point at home I am going to back the Dolphins in what will likely be a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bills @ Raiders (-3.5)

The Bills have had a very up and down season, but are coming off a win against the Jaguars, yet they face a very different prospect traveling to Oakland to play the Raiders. The Raiders have a very exciting offence and a defence that is doing enough for them to win and seems to have improved in the last few weeks. The Bills may have got back to a winning record, but beating a faltering Bengals team and the Jaguars does not indicate to me that a team has enough to live with Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Giants @ Steelers (-5.5)

This is the first of two games where the line doesn’t make much sense to me. The Steelers are coming off a solid win against a struggling Colts team who were without Andrew Luck. They have three really good players on offence, but the Giants are eight and three for a reason, and whilst they have not always looked good in getting there, the defence has played well enough for this to be a closer game than six points. I can easily see the Steelers winning this one, but I would be surprised if they cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Washington @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals have an excellent defence, but between the fall off in play of Carson Palmer and their struggles on the offensive line the Cards are struggling. Meanwhile Washington have one of the more explosive offences in the league and I think they should have enough to beat the Cardinals on the road, which they will need to do to stay in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Buccaneers @ Chargers (-3.5)

This should be a cracking game as the Buccaneers have shown real progress in recent weeks, and the Chargers have got over their early season finding new ways to lose streak that undermined a team that has been competitive in all of their games. The line does make me pause, but I think that the Chargers will take this one and I am backing them to cover, although this could be a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Panthers @ Seahawks (-6.5)

The Panthers’ struggles have been well documented this season, and a trip to Seattle is never easy, but with the injuries the Seahawks have at the moment I think this line is a little generous. The Panthers were able to hang with the Saints last week, and whilst the Seahawks defence is a lot better even with their current injuries, the Seattle offensive line is not good and they only put up five points last week. I expect a reaction from Seattle, but I’m just not sure if they are going to win by a clear touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Colts @ Jets (+2.5)

With Andrew Luck having been cleared to play after his concussion and looking to start this should at least be a competitive game between two teams that have not set the league alight this season. The Jets defence has been surprisingly lowly whilst the offence has been cursed by poor quarterback play and injury. The Colts have struggled all season, but I think they have been the more consistent team, which is why they are giving away two and a half points on the road. The Jets haven’t won since they played Cleveland, but Ryan Fitzpatrick did play better against the Patriots last week. I am tempted to back the home team getting points, but in the end I find myself picking the Colts. I don’t feel confident about this at all.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

What I Have Learned this Season, Packers @ Lions, and Week 13 Picks

06 Sunday Dec 2015

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We are one week away from being three quarters of the way through the season, and I know how I’m feeling so what it must be like for the players I don’t know. As I’m finally getting a chance to sit down and write I thought I would take a look at some of the things I have learned through the course of this season, particularly in the light of recent results.

It is a long season. It’s a marathon not a sprint. We are used to the coverage discussing how long the season is, but this year I have really noticed the ebb and flow that occurs during a single team’s season. The New England Patriots may have a 10-1 record, but the injuries have slowly accrued to a point where they have lost their first game, and it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me if they drop some more, at least until they can get Rob Gronkowski back on offence. But it is not just the attrition throughout the season that needs to be taken into account; coaching and progress should be looked at as well. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bad start to the season, going 1-5 before turning things around, winning five straight and getting themselves back into the playoff hunt. If the season ended today they would have a wildcard spot, and whilst the return of their corner Sean Smith has had a huge effect on their pass defence, turning them into one of the better defences in the league, they have also had to deal with the huge loss of running back Jamaal Charles, usually central to theor offence, so there is more to it than one player coming back. That said, too many injuries in one position can completely derail a team. There is no excuse for the state of the San Diego Chargers defence, but there have been so many injuries to their offensive line that you can see why they have had so many problems protecting Philip Rivers this year.

With all that said, sometimes it just takes time for a team to gel. I was as critical as anyone regarding what Bill O’Brien was doing with his quarterbacks in Houston at the start of the season. The old saying that if you have two quarterbacks then you don’t have any seemed very apt. Not only was this causing problems, but despite having some very recognisable names on the defence, including arguably the best player in football, the Texans were giving up a lot of points, giving up over forty twice as they started the season 2-5 as their defence struggled. However, once Ryan Mallet finally pushed management too far by missing the team plane down to Miami and finally got himself cut things started to settle on offence a little. More importantly though, the defence finally seemed to find its identity, allowing opposition offences less than ten points three times in the last four games as they rolled off four straight wins to get them back into the AFC South race.

One team who are very much not moving in the right direction are the Philadelphia Eagles, with one of the things that I misjudged being how their form in pre-season and would translate into the regular season. I was already aware that the teams do not game plan in the preseason, and mainly what I enjoy is getting a first look at the year’s draft class and the development of young players who may not get that much playing time during the actual season. However, everyone was take in by how well the Eagles offence was performing during the preseason, but once the regular season got under way it quickly became apparent that all was not well on that side of the ball. There is a lot of debate as to whether Chips Kelly’s up temp offence can continue to work in NFL, reliant as it is on simple concepts that are repeated frequently as it simply not possible to run that many different concepts at that pace. This in of itself doesn’t worry me so much as what appears to be Kelly’s reliance on his system. I was as impressed as anyone by Chip Kelly’s early success in Philadelphia, and this was only further enhanced after hearing an extended interview with him talking about his practice regime. However, the first problem I see with the Eagles is to do with the level of buy in that he demands of his players, which I can understand as a concept and certainly contributed to his college success. In the NFL though, as good as a coach as you are, there are thirty-one other coaches at the top of their game, with an enormous amount of time invested in preparation. You can find edges through coaching, but at the NFL level such advantages are very fine, and you can very rarely win outright by outcoaching your opponent, at some point you need to create mismatches and have enough players win their one on one matchups to win a game. Kelly though, has shipped out a surprising amount of talent from the Eagles in favour of young players who he can mould, this may work out if he is given time, but the players right now are not as good and you only have to look at the play of the offensive line now compared to when he joined to see that certain groups have taken a step back. Not only is there this to contend with, but if you are a system coach, you walk a very fine line as you need the right players to run your system perfectly and these might not always be available. Finally, if you are an innovator, particularly one with a track record in college rather than in the pros, then people will start to second guess you if things are not going well, and they certainly are not in for the Eagles in recent weeks.

I don’t think there is anything wrong with having a coaching philosophy, in fact having read Pete Carroll’s book in the offseason I think that sitting down and actually developing your philosophy into a coherent core that you can clearly articulate is of huge benefit. That said, I also think that if you introduce a degree of flexibility into your approach, being prepared to compromise to make the most of the players you have, then this can lead to more sustainable success. If you want proof of this then just take a look at the way that Bill Belichick and his staff continually scour the league and get something out of players that other teams have failed to do so.

Further proof of this maxim can be found in the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, who no one was expecting to play like this at the beginning of the year. There were concerns about their offensive line and they lost their leading receiver from last season before the season had even started. However, they are getting what they need out of the players that they have, and there is perhaps no finer microcosm of this philosophy than what they are doing with Cam Newton. There are not too many six foot five, two hundred and forty-five pound quarterbacks in the league (Newton’s size according to the Panthers’ website), with Cam’s ability to run the ball. However, they built a running game around the dual threat of him and running back Jonathan Stuart, as well as utilising his connection with tight end Greg Olson and ability to throw the deep ball. He may not show the touch that you would ideally like, but he has been undeniably effective since Ron Riviera felt Newton was healthy enough during the 2014 season to use the offensive game plan they had been keeping under wraps since the preceding preseason because of the injuries Newton had been carrying. You may still worry about the long term effects of a quarterback taking this many hits, but he is built like a football player, and still has time to work on a transition such a Ben Roethlisberger has made, into a pocket passer.

One of the things that I do think is important in the successful running of a sports club is giving a coach time, which seems to be given in increasingly smaller amounts these days across many sports, and even the NFL is starting to follow this trend. We have had several coaching changes, with two head coaching firings that have brought dubious results, and several coordinators taking the fall. However, the Lions took this a step further when their ninety year old owner declared that enough was enough, and she fired the GM along with the head of operations. This was after Jim Caldwell had fired his offensive coordinator and the coaches that had been working with their offensive line going into their trip to London. This did not produce immediate results, as I witnessed in person as the Lions were systematically taken apart by the Kansas City Chiefs at Wembley. However, following the additional firings and their bye week the Lion’s had won three straight games going into week thirteen including their first win in Green Bay since 1991 off the back of improved defence performances, but crucially an offence that seems to be coming together under new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. This all leads me quite nicely to Thursday’s return fixture in Detroit.

Packers @ Lions

There isn’t quite time for me to do a full game write up, but there was now way I could skip over the Miracle in Motown, which I am sure you will have heard of by now. If not, the game came down to a last ditch drive, where on what should have been the final play of the game, a facemask penalty called on a Lions’ defender led to one final play with no time on the clock. This has only happened in the NFL a total of five times, and two of them have been this season. In this case, the Lions rushed three and failed to stop a sixty-one yard Hail Mary pass to tight end Richard Rodgers that won the Packers the game. But it very easily could have finished a different way.

In the first quarter the Packers struggled, finding it difficult to move the ball and they ended the quarter seventeen points down. The Lions were able to move the ball, and when Aaron Rodgers threw only his fifth interception of the year, Matthew Stafford immediately answered with a seventeen yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson. However, the Packers defence stiffened in the second quarter, but the offence continued to struggle and failed to score before half-time, leading to a twenty point deficit.

The Packers slowly dragged themselves back into the game in the second half, with solid defence and a key strip of Matthew Stafford by Julius Peppers that swiftly led to a second touchdown meaning that the Lions lead was down to six by the start of the fourth quarter.

It has to be said that the Packers offence still struggled in the second half, but third string running back John Crocket added a small spark in the running game, but the most effect methods the Packers found to move the ball were screen passes/dump offs to James Starks, and passes to Richard Rodgers who finished the game with one hundred and forty-six yards from eight catches, including the game winning touchdown to seal the game.

The Packers may have got back to winning ways, but it was not in the way that they would have envisaged, and the Lions will be kicking themselves about how late they left it in the season before they found a formula that works. If the Lions can find suitable replacements for their front office, there are things that they can build on for next season unless they chose to blow things up, but we shall have to see what path they chose to take. The Packers meanwhile have kept themselves in playoff contention, but they will need to find a more stable formula if they want to make sure of getting there and leaving a mark in the post season.

And now on to the rest of this week’s picks:

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Flacons need to stop turning the ball over if they want to get back to winning ways, and they are running out of time if they want to get back into the playoff hunt given Seattle’s recent improvements. The question will be whether they are going to start this turnaround against a Buccaneers team that have definitely improved in recent weeks. The Falcons might be getting Devonta Freeman back this week, but the Bucs actually rank second in the NFL in rush defence by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, as well as being the higher ranked team in both general and weighted DVOA, which is leading me to nervously back the home team in this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:         Falcons

Texans @ Bills (-2.5)

The Bills have been better in recent weeks, but are still up and down, with the only unit on either team I really trust being the recently very stingy Texans’ defence, so that is where I’m picking in this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Texans
Dan’s Pick:         Texans

49ers @ Bears (-6.5)

The 49ers defence has been okay at home in recent weeks and Blaine Gabbert has at least looked like a competent NFL quarterback, but this week they are in Chicago and not San Francisco. Add the travelling across country to the fact that the Bears are progressing in John Fox’s first season and are coming off a road win in Green Bay, and I think I have to back the Bears in this one despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:         Bears
Dan’s Pick:         Bears

Bengals @ Browns (+6.5)

This feels like a trap game for me in that the Browns and Bengals games have often been close contests, with this game being in Cleveland and NFL touchdown leader Tyler Eifert likely missing the game, I could see the Bengals struggling to cover these points. However, there are still so many options for Andy Dalton that I think they will cope in this game against a Browns team who are on a short week.

Gee’s Pick:         Bengals
Dan’s Pick:         Bengals

Jaguars @ Titans (-2.5)

The Jaguars just squeaked out a win only a couple of weeks ago when they entertained the Titans, and with the injury to Allen Hearns you might be tempted to back the Titans at home in this one. I am always wary of long streaks as they have to end at some point, and it has been a very long time since the fans in Tennessee have seen their team win in person, but I can’t bring myself to pick them doing it this week with this many points.

Gee’s Pick:         Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:         Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (+5.5)

The Rams under Jeff Fisher have often kept their games with the better teams in the league close, and actually beat the Cardinals in Arizona earlier in the year. However, their offensive line is a mess through injury, they have very little passing game, which allows a defence to focus on bottling up Todd Gurly. The Rams defence might be very good, but the Cardinals offence has been lighting everybody up and I have a feeling they will want to get revenge as they head into St Louis.

Gee’s Pick:         Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:         Cardinals

Ravens @ Dolphins (-4.5)

I’m really torn on this game, as the Ravens have kept every game close, but it took two special teams touchdowns for them to beat the Browns last week, and they are travelling to Miami on a short week to play on the road for a second week in a row. The Dolphins have just fired their offensive coordinator as Dan Campbell was not happy with the play calling or rush/pass balance. However, the Ravens run defence is still solid and I am not sure the Dolphins truly have the passing game to take advantage of the Ravens’ defensive frailties. Almost any result feels in play with this one, and so for the simple reason that I don’t feel comfortable backing either team I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:         Ravens
Dan’s Pick:         Dolphins

Seahawks @ Vikings (-0.5)

This is another tough game for me to call, and I am getting no help from the line whatsoever. I can see arguments for both sides, but in the end I trust Russell Wilson more than Teddy Bridgewater in what I expect to be a really good game.

Gee’s Pick:         Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:         Vikings

Jets @ Gaints (+1.5)

The Giants are still inconsistent, whilst the Jets have got a little healthier on offence and given that essentially both teams are at home, I think that the Jets will win this one as I believe they are the better team even if their records are not that different.

Gee’s Pick:         Jets
Dan’s Pick:         Jets

Broncos @ Chargers (+4.5)

The Broncos have a formula, whilst the Chargers are a mess despite getting a win last week that I was not expecting. The Broncos defence is still one of the best units in the game, and I expect the Chargers to struggle on both sides of the ball in this one so I think the Broncos will cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick:         Broncos
Dan’s Pick:         Broncos

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, whilst the Raiders are going through the growing pains of having a young team that possibly still lacks a bit of talent. The Chiefs however are sensing that a playoff push is possible, and so despite being on the road in Oakland, I think they will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:         Chiefs

Eagles @ Patriots (-9.5)

Wow this is a lot of points, particularly for a banged up Patriots team, and yet I’m still torn on this one. The Eagles have given up over forty points in their last two games, losing to both the Lions and the Buccaneers. I really want to pick the Patriots to cover this one, but I’m not quite brave enough, and with a reasonable lead in the picks competition I don’t need to be taking such risks. I will kick myself if the Patriots cover, but I’m not confident they will.

Gee’s Pick:         Eagles
Dan’s Pick:         Eagles

Panthers @ Saints (+7.5)

This is a lot of points, but Saints defence did not improve last week, and I get the feeling that the Panthers will continue with their focussed approach this week and will cover this spread in New Orleans.

Gee’s Pick:         Panthers
Dan’s Pick:         Panthers

Colts @ Steelers (-6.5)

The Colts have played will with Matt Hasselbeck, but I think they are finally going to meet their match coming into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers who are still very effective at moving the ball. I think the wheels have to fall off at some point for the Colts, and it might be worth watching this game just to see if either head coach makes a final move for the worst fake punt play of the season.

Gee’s Pick:         Steelers
Dan’s Pick:         Steelers

Cowboys @ Washington (-3.5)

I am happy that we can finally write off the Cowboys, and Washington have quietly been an okay home team so I expect them to win this one, with them somehow still being in contention for the division.

Gee’s Pick:         Washington
Dan’s Pick:         Washington

Emergency Week 13 Pick

03 Thursday Dec 2015

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In a bout of typical Gee planning, I was carefully working on this week’s column having prepared tonight’s pick, forgetting completely that I was out this evening, so I will catch up over the weekend, but for the record here are Dan and mine’s totals for the year and tonight’s pick.

Gee:    Week 12   8-8             Overall   91-85
Dan:    Week 12   6-10           Overall   84-92

Packers @ Lions (+3.5)

I’m really torn on this game as you just don’t know what version of the Packers are going to turn up, the team that so handily beat the Vikings on the road in Minnesota, or the team that lost to the Bears at home whilst they were honouring one of their greats in Brett Farve. The fact is though that the Lion beat the Packers in Green Bay three games ago, and have been in consistently good form over recent weeks and so with them getting points at home I will back them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

NFL Week 13 Picks: Part 2

28 Friday Nov 2014

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It suddenly occurred to me whilst setting the recording of the Thanksgiving games this morning that I couldn’t finish this blog this evening and post as games would already be in progress so I’ll present the first part now, and will follow up with the rest of the games this evening:

So rather worryingly, the current struggles I’m having finding time to maintain this blog is not having an adverse affect on my picks, in fact they seem to be improving as I’ve not only caught, but I have passed him taking a one game lead.

It will have to be another quick tour though the NFL this week, but I’m looking forward to sitting down with the three Thanksgiving games this Friday and writing up a running diary this weekend. In the mean time, let’s take a look at the games for Week 13.

Gee:      Week 12   10-5                   Overall   91-85
Dan:       Week 12   8-7                     Overall   90-86

Bears @ Lions (-7.5)

It’s not time to panic if you’re a Lions fan, but you have to be worried about the offence at this point in the season. There’s no shame in losing to the Patriots with the way that they are playing at the moment, but the offence has been struggling to move the ball for weeks and are currently ranked twenty-fourth by DVOA. The defence is still ranked first in the NFL, but with the race for the wild cards hotting up, they can’t afford to lose too many more games and could do with the offence beginning to function properly..

That said, despite their recent pair of wins, it may not be the worse time to be entertaining the Bears who had to come from behind in the second half against the woeful Buccaneers last week, having beaten the Vikings the week before. Apart from the fact that they have won their last two game 21-13, the odd thing about the Bears has been that the defence might have made a bigger improvement than the offence over the last few weeks. It seems like the Bears are trying to minimise the damage with Jay Cutler, which given that his current contract is guaranteed for over fifty millions dollars is somewhat worrying.

I’m not convinced by the Bears defence and am seriously worried about how Jay Cutler is going to play against the Lions defence so I think the Lions get back on track at home on Thanksgiving, but I’m too scared by the points to take them beating the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

After a possible slow start, I think the next two Thanksgiving games should be great and this is my game of the day.

The Cowboys showed how good their o-line is as they came from behind to beat the Giants. I worry how long Tony Romo can keep going with the injuries he’s carrying, but I don’t think there’s a better line for him to be limping around behind than the one he’s got and with the support of DeMarco Murray in the run game he should be okay.

I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and his team have the record to back that confidence, but neither of his starting quarterbacks are truly outstanding and the play of Mark Sanchez worries me. The Eagles ran out comfortable winners last week but with Sanchez throwing two interceptions to one touchdown, it was more behind their running game and another special teams touchdown than outstanding play by him.

I think this will be a close game, but in the end I just have bit more confidence in Tony Romo and that Cowboys o-line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-0.5)

I suspect final Thursday game will be a lower scoring battle of a game.

The 49ers have been grinding out results with tough defence whilst their offence stutters through the game. They managed a pretty measly seventeen points against Washington and only scored sixteen the week before against the Giant’s despite their defence getting five interceptions in that game. However, whilst they are not making the most of what looks like a talented group on offence, they seem to know who they are and are winning games.

The Seahawks are playing a pretty similar style of football as well. I’m not sure how much of the defence’s excellent performance last week was down to the core veterans team meeting they held before the game against the Cardinals, and how much was facing Drew Stanton who doesn’t have a run game to help him. Their offence is also sputtering, with the run game working effectively but a serious dearth of talent at receiver meaning the passing game is seriously underpowered.

This is going to be a real throw back brawl of a game. These two teams have split their games recently with the home team winning and so in a pick’em game I’m backing the home team.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers.
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Well now it’s time for weekend games in part 2, and let’s hope I do a little better than the disastrous 0-3 I went yesterday:

Browns @ Bills (-1.5)

I do not know what to do with this game. The Bills had to play in Detroit last week thanks to the snow, didn’t practice for two days, and suddenly Kyle Orton looks like a competent quarterback again. They managed to score thirty-eight points against the Jets having gone seven consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown in the two previous games. The caveat however, is that they scored forty-three points against the Jest in week eight so I suggest we don’t get too excited yet.

The Browns are keeping themselves in the uber-competitive AFC North race despite Brian Hoyer’s patchy play over the last couple of weeks. It is a sign of Josh Gordon’s playing ability that in his first game back from suspension he caught eight balls for 120 yards despite Hoyer missing him more than once,

This is another really close game, but I just have more faith in the team getting results despite their quarterback’s patchy play, than the team whose quarterback unexpectedly looked competent in his last game, against the Jets…

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Bengals @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers have shown a few glimpses in recent weeks despite going back to starting Josh McCown at quarterback, which I do not understand given that there’s no hope of them making the playoffs even if they are only two games of the lead in the putrid NFC South. However, Mike Evans has demonstrated that he is right up there with any of the other receivers from this amazing rookie class. Imagine what he could do if they had an elite quarterback.

The Bengals seem to have found their identity again. Not only has the return of Rey Maualuga helped the balance of the linebackers, but Domata Peko is playing better and I’ve seen flashes of the old brilliance from Geno Atkins playing next to him. On offence, I was impressed how quiet the o-line kept JJ Watt despite losing Andre Smith in the second quarter to a tricep injury. Unfortunately, Smith is now done for the season and I’m not sure how I am going to cope watching Marshall Newhouse for the rest of the season, but Kevin Zeitler is playing really well at right guard so hopefully things work out.

I’m worried about picking the Bengals to win a third road game, but I think they have to win this one with games against the Browns, the Steelers twice, and the Broncos coming up.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans have lost Ryan Mallet to a torn pectoral, which I have heard both that he did it in warm-ups, and during he second quarter, either way this may explain the troubles that the Texans had on offence with their only touchdown coming from a pick-six interceptions. The defence was good, but I though JJ Watt was relatively quiet apart from an impressive pass tip and the only time I remember hearing Clowney’s name was him jumping offside.

That said, although there are signs that Zack Mettenberger might be their quarterback of the future, the Titans are still not a good team and they got comprehensively beaten by the Eagles last week.

The Texans are not making the playoffs so they may be better of trying their rookie quarterback Tom Savage to see what they have rather than go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but either way I think they will beat the Titans. However, the points make me worry and so I think I’m going to brave the Titans one more time, this could end badly.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Semi-Pros @ Colts (-9.5)

This is a lot of points given how the Colts have been a little up and down over the last few weeks. The Patriots demonstrated that they have a blue print to beat the Colts and their recovery win against the Jaguars was not pretty. However, this could be the game for them to get back on track.

On last week’s Tuesday Morning Football I heard afan repeatedly refer to their team as the Washington semi-professional football team, and given the mess they seem to be in, I am borrowing it for the rest of the season, although a little shortened. With the benching of Richard Griffin the third, the Semi-Pros are sitting a player they gave up two first round picks and a second round pick to get. I generally dislike trading up in the draft, and I don’t think you should ever mortgage future first round picks, there’s too much risk and you hurt the depth of your team in the long run. I am not going to write of RG3, but the break down with the head coach is pretty horrible and there doesn’t’ seem to be a lot of forward planning going on here. I don’t see Colt McCoy being the answer given the mess they are in.

What worries me is that there may well be a bounce back by the Semi-Pros this week just out of sheer relief and RG3 has been so bad. Part of me wants to pick them, but I would rather kick myself for being cautious than place any faith in the team from Washington.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Rams (-7.5)

The Rams covered the line in a tight loss to the Chargers, and demonstrated that they are a quarterback away from really competing as a team. Shaun Hill demonstrated he wasn’t that player losing a fumble for a touchdown, and being intercepted twice, including one in the red zone. The defence has really found its identity but that will only get them so far.

The Raiders finally got their win, and looked reasonably okay doing it. I liked the performance of their young linebacker unit barring the excessive celebrating, and they have two foundation pieces in Khalil Mack and Derek Carr

That said, I don’t think the Raiders are winning this game in Saint Louis, but I don’t see them being blown out either.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Panthers @ Vikings (-2.5)

It has been a hard season for the Vikings, who have the solid defence you would expect from a team coached by Mike Zimmer, but are not clicking on offence yet. I get the feeling that they are a season away from being good and it will be interesting to see how they kick on next season. They were able to keep the game close against the Packers last week and I don’t see them having a problem with visiting Panthers this weekend despite only having won one more game.

The Panthers are on a horrible run of form, not having won since week five and should have lost against the Bengals in week six. It feel like nothing is working quite right for them at the moment. The lack of pass rush and a horrible secondary is too much for even Luke Kuechly to overcome on defence, whilst the debate is ongoing about Cam Newton’s ability to lead in adversity and how hurt he may or may not be. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game, but I don’t see it as the one they are going break their losing streak in.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Saints @ Steelers (-3.5)

There was a time when you knew what you were getting with the Steelers. A tough defence, smash mouth football, ten or eleven wins, and a good run in the playoffs. That has not been the case over recent years and this season they have taken inconsistency to new heights and depths. They have scored fifty-one points against the Colts yet lost to the Buccaneers and the Jets. They got a close win against the Titans on Monday night football ahead of their week twelve bye, maintaining Dick LeBeau’s great record against rookie quarterbacks, and losing me a pick.

This week the Steelers welcome the Saints, who have just lost an unthinkable three straight games at home. Neither side of the ball is playing well, nor does their share of the lead in the NFC South hide the fact that they are not a good team. The Saints have not travelled well in recent years and I don’t expect them to start this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Giants @ Jaguars (+2.5)

Neither of these team are very good. The Jaguars continue to play tough and lose, whilst the Giants played a little better last week.

The only other thing I want to write about is Odell Beckham Jr’s amazing catch last week against the Cowboys. How he managed to arch his back and reel that ball in using one hand I shall never know. It is that rare thing, a highlight that you can keep watching. This why we love football and he’s pretty much the only reason to watch this game unless you are a fan of one of these teams. This could a chance for the Jaguars to get that second win, but my heart won’t let me pick against Beckham for at least another week. This is a terrible way to pick games…

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants (Luckily, Dan agrees with me on this one)

Chargers @ Ravens (-5.5)

The Ravens were the latest team to go to New Orleans and get a win. Their secondary may not look as strong as we are used to, but they got a turnover and were good enough. The offence has slowed down compared to the start of the season, but they still have lots of talent and this is a good home team.

The Chargers managed to keep themselves in the playoff hunt with a win last week, and I’m sure that they were grateful for the return of running back Ryan Mathews. This is a team that have suffered a lot of injuries and I’m not sure if they can hold themselves together for the remainder of the season. Add to that the trip across country to Baltimore and I don’t see them winning this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Cardinals @ Falcons (+2.5)

I didn’t want to pick against the Cardinals last week, but I’m not surprised that they lost the game. The Seahawks in Seattle were too much for them to deal with, but they are still a well coached team that has a really good defence. The Falcons lost the game having played better, but Mike Smith’s time management was not the best at the end of the game. I was impressed how well the Falcons played considering the rest of their season so far, but I don’t see them having the same kind of success this week. I think the Cardinals get back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Patriots @ Packers (-3.5)

This is the game of the weekend. Both teams are playing great football and this really could be a preview of the Super Bowl.

The Packers have been playing peerless football at Lambeau Field this year, with Aaron Rodgers throwing no interceptions all season at home (he’s only had three all year) and the defence has really been standing up over recent weeks.

After a rough start to the season, the Patriots have played themselves into great form, with Bill Belichick and his staff changing their play style to exploit their opponent from week to week.

I’m taking the Patriots as I’m getting points, but I wouldn’t be surprised by any result in what should be a fabulous game.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Broncos @ Chiefs (+1.5)

This should be a really good divisional game.

The Chiefs are coming off a very disappointing loss to the Raiders, that could cost them dear. I’ve been writing all season about how solid the Chiefs are, and for the most part they have been, but they now have two really bad losses and in a tight playoff race losing to the Raiders and Titans could really cost them. They have the tools on defence, particularly with Justin Houston leading the league in sacks, to cause the Broncos problems, but I don’t think they have the tools to manufacture the points they need against the Broncos’ defence.

The Broncos have had a bit of a wobble thanks to some injuries, and in particular some problems with their offensive line. However, they found a way to come back against the Dolphins and get the win whilst only giving up a sack against the excellent Dolphins defence. I think that will have enough to win this game despite travelling to Arrowhead Stadium, but I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t gone back and forth a number of times on this one. Still, I’m sticking with the Broncos. I think…

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Dolphins @ Jets (+5.5)

The Dolphins are a good team that just needs to get both sides of the ball working at the same time to get a marquee win. In their close loss to the Broncos, Ryan Tannehill played well again but the defence that has been so strong can’t give up twenty-two points in the final quarter if they are going to win games. That said, they are travelling to the Jets who managed a measly three points last week against the Bills. The Bills defensive line is one of the best in the league, and they wreaked havoc against the Jets, injuring an ineffective Michael Vick so Geno Smith returns as starter. I get the feeling everyone on the Jets can’t wait until the end of this horrid season.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

NFL Week 13 Picks: Part 1

27 Thursday Nov 2014

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It suddenly occurred to me whilst setting the recording of the Thanksgiving games this morning that I couldn’t finish this blog this evening and post as games would already be in progress, so I am posting the first part now, and will follow up with the rest of the games this evening:

So rather worryingly, the current struggles I’m having finding time to maintain this blog is not having an adverse affect on my picks, in fact they seem to be improving as I’ve not only caught, but I have passed him taking a one game lead.

It will have to be another quick tour though the NFL this week, but I’m looking forward to sitting down with the three Thanksgiving games this Friday and writing up a running diary this weekend. In the mean time, let’s take a look at the games for Week 13.

Gee:      Week 12   10-5                   Overall   91-85
Dan:      Week 12   8-7                     Overall   90-86

Bears @ Lions (-7.5)

It’s not time to panic if you’re a Lions fan, but you have to be worried about the offence at this point in the season. There’s no shame in losing to the Patriots with the way that they are playing at the moment, but the offence has been struggling to move the ball for weeks and are currently ranked twenty-fourth by DVOA. The defence is still ranked first in the NFL, but with the race for the wild cards hotting up, they can’t afford to lose too many more games and could do with the offence beginning to function properly..

That said, despite their recent pair of wins, it may not be the worse time to be entertaining the Bears who had to come from behind in the second half against the woeful Buccaneers last week, having beaten the Vikings the week before. Apart from the fact that they have won their last two game 21-13, the odd thing about the Bears has been that the defence might have made a bigger improvement than the offence over the last few weeks. It seems like the Bears are trying to minimise the damage with Jay Cutler, which given that his current contract is guaranteed for over fifty millions dollars is somewhat worrying.

I’m not convinced by the Bears defence and am seriously worried about how Jay Cutler is going to play against the Lions defence so I think the Lions get back on track at home on Thanksgiving, but I’m too scared by the points to take them beating the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

After a possible slow start, I think the next two Thanksgiving games should be great and this is my game of the day.

The Cowboys showed how good their o-line is as they came from behind to beat the Giants. I worry how long Tony Romo can keep going with the injuries he’s carrying, but I don’t think there’s a better line for him to be limping around behind than the one he’s got and with the support of DeMarco Murray in the run game he should be okay.

I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and his team have the record to back that confidence, but neither of his starting quarterbacks are truly outstanding and the play of Mark Sanchez worries me. The Eagles ran out comfortable winners last week but with Sanchez throwing two interceptions to one touchdown, it was more behind their running game and another special teams touchdown than outstanding play by him.

I think this will be a close game, but in the end I just have bit more confidence in Tony Romo and that Cowboys o-line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-0.5)

I suspect final Thursday game will be a lower scoring battle of a game.

The 49ers have been grinding out results with tough defence whilst their offence stutters through the game. They managed a pretty measly seventeen points against Washington and only scored sixteen the week before against the Giant’s despite their defence getting five interceptions in that game. However, whilst they are not making the most of what looks like a talented group on offence, they seem to know who they are and are winning games.

The Seahawks are playing a pretty similar style of football as well. I’m not sure how much of the defence’s excellent performance last week was down to the core veterans team meeting they held before the game against the Cardinals, and how much was facing Drew Stanton who doesn’t have a run game to help him. Their offence is also sputtering, with the run game working effectively but a serious dearth of talent at receiver meaning the passing game is seriously underpowered.

This is going to be a real throw back brawl of a game. These two teams have split their games recently with the home team winning and so in a pick’em game I’m backing the home team.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers.
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks