Monthly Archives: December 2014

NFL Week 17 Picks

27 Saturday Dec 2014

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It feels a little strange that we are heading into the final week of the regular season already. I had a hell of a time watching the Bengals last week, it doesn’t matter that he hasn’t played well for a couple of weeks now, Peyton Manning is still terrifying and the comeback in the third quarter was so dispiriting to watch. Still, the Bengals finally pulled one out on prime time national TV and they are in the playoffs, with a chance of revenge against the Steelers in the final week.

The picks competition is coming down to the wire, with Dan holding a game’s lead going into the final week, but the question is who is going to be playing all their players as we look at the final games of the regular season.

Gee:     Week 16   7-9                          Overall   119-121
Dan:     Week 16   7-9                          Overall   120-120

Bills @ Patriots (-3.5)

The Patriots have secured their twelfth consecutive double-digit win season and have secured themselves a first week bye in the playoffs. It was not pretty last week, but they got the job done despite the offensive line struggling in pass protection, which they have not done since the early part of the season. We will have to see how they go, but having looked through the last few seasons I don’t see any let up in the final game despite having a good record.

Last week the Bills needed a win to keep themselves in the playoff race having got a great win against the Packers in week fifteen, however they dropped the ball in a disappointing loss to the Raiders. The Bills came into the game with the number one ranked defence by DVOA, but gave up a surprising 140 yards on the ground and were unable to force a turnover. Unfortunately for the Bills their offensive problems continued, and having given up the fourth most quarterback hits this season this perhaps is not surprising, but they were unable to regain the lead having given it up in the first quarter. This is where giving up a future first round pick in the draft hurts as there is no doubting Sammy Watkins talent, but what this team needs is a quarterback to throw the ball to him, and they have one less way to address the need in the offseason.

The reason I’m already turning to the offseason for the Bills is that I don’t see them travelling to the Patriots and winning, they’re just too hampered on offence.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Bears @ Vikings (-6.5)

Who would have through at the start of the season that the Bears would be playing a meaningless game as six and half point underdogs against the Vikings. The loss against the Lions might have been more respectable, but that is more to do with the Lions up and down offence than any dramatic improvement by the Bears. It will be interesting to see how they go about turning this mess around, and what happens to Jay Cutler as he returns to the starting line-up following Jimmy Clausen’s concussion, but I don’t see anything changing in this game as this team is going to need work in the offseason to fix its problems.

The Vikings have quietly had a solid season in Mike Zimmer’s first year, and if they can improve the offensive line to give Teddy Bridgewater better protection then they could really make some noise next year. The points worry me in this game, but I think they will finish the season strongly at home against one of the most disappointing teams of the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Browns @ Ravens (-8.5)

There is actually quite a lot to be positive about when you look at the Browns’ season given the improvement in their record and how long they stayed in the playoff hunt in a competitive AFC North. The problem is that the one thing they needed to do having been eliminated from the playoffs was get Johnny Manziel as much playing time as possible to see what you have. Unfortunately, a pulled hamstring won’t even allow them to do that, and given that Brian Hoyer is out of contact at the end of the season and what we have already seen from Manziel so far, the Browns will need another quarterback of some kind going into next season. The fact that they are picking up a practice squad players to play quarterback in this game is not exactly inspiring.

I have been saying that the Ravens are a really good team with a glaring flaw thanks to the injuries they have had in the secondary, but there were more problems than that last week as they lost to the Texans. In fact, it wasn’t so much their secondary as the offence that cost them the game last week, with Joe Flacco throwing three interceptions and the running game only gaining thirty-three yards. I think they are still a good team, and that they will win this game, but the points make me nervous and the Browns will be desperate to be playoff spoilers in this game. The Browns have huge questions at quarterback, but their defence is ranked eleventh by DVOA and I just have a feeling this will be closer than nine points. I could be proved very wrong, and the Ravens need this win to make the playoffs, but this is a lot of points in the usually tight AFC North.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Cowboys @ Semi-Pros(+6.5)

The Semi-Pros managed a win last week despite fairly average numbers on offence, including a not particularly strong showing from Richard Griffin. I’m really not sure where this win came from, but I think there are too many flaws for them to be able to repeat the win this week.

The Cowboys wrapped up the division last week against a Colts team that really weren’t in the game at any point. Given the injury status of Murray and Romo it was surprising how much they played after the Colts pulled Andrew Luck. I don’t think they will have any problems against the Semi-Pros, even if they rest their injured players as the o-line is still going to one of the best in the league. Also, it is not like Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has shown much reluctance in risking injury to his players so far this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Colts @ Titans (+7.5)

The Titans have had an awful season, and having seen them last week I can see why as neither side of the ball looked good, and pass protection was a serious issue. This is a team that needs a serious overhaul, and it is likely going to take a couple of seasons for them to turn it round.

However, the Colts were not good last week, and having held out TY Hilton with a hamstring problem, were pretty awful in a lopsided loss to the Cowboys. Although there were a number of drops in that game, it has been several weeks since Andrew Luck has looked really good for four quarters. At some point they will have to address how much they are asking Luck to do for the team to win games, but for now they go where he and TY Hilton takes them.

I think they should win this game, but I’m not convinced that they will given their performance and what they have left to play for so in a week where I have to take chance to win, I’m taking the Titans to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Chargers @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are a very solid team, but you can’t win consistently in the NFL without a passing game, and the stat that Alex Smith hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a receiver is now being talked about by everyone. I would imagine that this position would be a point of emphasis this offseason, but given the performance of this year’s rookie class, last year’s draft was the time to address the receiver position. They will keep themselves in this game as they do in most, but I’m not sure they have enough ways to win, particularly given that Alex Smith is now done of the season with a lacerated spleen.

This week the Chiefs welcome a Chargers team that still has something to play for as they can make the playoffs. The Chargers somehow managed to stay in the race despite losing another centre for the game against the 49ers with an ankle injury. They managed to get the win despite being 28-7 down at halftime and giving up 355 yards rushing yards. Furthermore, we’ve had it confirmed that Philip Rivers has been playing through a bulging disk in his back, which explains the variance in his play this season, but he did more than enough to win last week and if he can keep the interceptions down then the Chargers should have enough to win this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Jets @ Dolphins (-5.5)

The Dolphins did really well to get the come from behind win last week, but it must still rankle that they are not in the playoff hunt. It would seem to make sense to give Joe Philbin one more year given the improvement Ryan Tannehill has made during his first year in Bill Lazor’s offence, but there has to be disappointment that they are not part of the playoff race in the final week.

The Jets ran the Patriots close last week, but were unable to get the win, and this could very well be Rex Ryan’s last game as coach. It seems a shame given the success that he has had despite never having a good quarterback. However, despite Geno Smith saying he wants to be part of the solution, he hasn’t really convinced this year and threw another interception against the Patriots last week. The simple fact is that this team doesn’t have enough talent to win despite a pretty good front seven.

I can see the Jets competing in this one, and whilst I think the Dolphins can win, their run defence scares me and I’m changing my mind on this one given the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Saints @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers have had a surprisingly torrid season under Lovie Smith, who I expected to bring stability to this team, but whilst the defence has shown flashes some weeks, neither side of the ball has really shown much this season. The only bright spots have been the performances of rookie receiver Mike Evans and outstanding defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. It looks like the Bucs will have a shot at a quarterback if they like any of the top prospects, but it will take more than that to turn this team around so they should probably just take the best player available.

The Saints went all in on this season as they have cap problems and an ageing quarterback. Whilst you can see the logic in this decision, it has backfired horribly and it is an offseason of turmoil that this team are facing. That said, they still have Brees and Graham so I can’t see them dropping this final game of a dismal season.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants might have done enough to save Tom Coughlin’s job with a late season rally behind the outstanding rookie receiver Odell Beckham. Still, they will need several more drafts like this last one to replenish the talent of this squad.

Three straight losses have seen the playoffs slip out of reach for an Eagles team that have disproved the theory that Chip Kelly’s offence is quarterback proof. I actually feel sorry for Sanchez as he has achieved more than he is usually given credit for, but he can’t seem to overcome the turnovers.

The Giants still seem to be playing hard, where as the Eagles must be disappointed in the way the season is ending. However, I have been really impressed with Chip Kelly and I think there is a fundamental talent gap between these two teams so I’m taking the Eagles and the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)

The Texans came up with a win last week despite having to start Case Keenum at quarterback and their only touchdown pass coming from Arian Foster. However, they do at least stand a chance of getting a winning season, which is the least that JJ Watt’s fantastic play this season deserves. He has anchored a defence that is top ten in the league by DVOA and it is amazing how he continues to affect the game despite sometime garnering triple teams from opposing offences.

The Jaguars definitely are showing signs of promise, but this will have to turn into wins next season if Gus Bradey wants to keep his job. The problem in this game is that they are horrible in pass protection so JJ Watt could have a field day. However, their defence is very tough and I see them keeping it close against the Texans, who are now down to their third starting quarterback of the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is a huge, winner gets into the playoffs game.

The Falcons had a horrible start to the year, losing pretty much an entire starting line-up of offensive lineman. Still, since the bye week they have gone 4-2, playing largely sold football on offence. Their defence has been horrible, but between Matt Ryan and their skill players they have enough fire power to keep themselves in games if the o-line can hold up long enough.

This week they go against a Panthers team that has struggled for long periods of the season. It was surprising to see Cam Newton run so much in week sixteen against the Browns just a week after fracturing two bones in his back in a car accident. However, they have not been consistent on either side of the ball, with the defence struggling to get a pass rush or cover receivers with their patched up secondary, and the offence sputtering with Newton’s inconsistent play across the season.

The fact of the matter is that the despite which team wins, we will have a team with a losing record in the playoffs, and I think that given how they have been playing recently I think that team will be the Falcons.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Raiders @ Broncos (-14.5)

By any team’s standards the Broncos have had a successful year, but the questions still surround Peyton Manning after he lost another game last week, his first against the Bengals. The fact of the matter is that he only needs to throw one more touchdown to have forty for the season and currently leads the league. He might not have looked at his best over the last few weeks, but he lead the comeback in the third quarter last week and this team has surrounded him with players that given them other ways to win. They should have more than enough to take care of the Raiders.

The Raiders may have a losing record for another year, but for the first time in a while they have hope in young players that they can build round. I don’t know who their coach will be, but they are heading in the right direction. However, whilst they may have improved, I don’t see them getting a final upset against the Broncos in this game. That said, with Peyton’s troubles over recent weeks, I don’t see why the Broncos are giving quite so many points to the Raiders, even if they are at home.

If anyone could prove me wrong, it is Manning and the Broncos, but this is simply too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This is a big game in the NFC North, and this line is a testament to how good the Packers have been at home as they lost to the Lions in Detroit. That said, whilst the Lions defence has been excellent all season, their offence has struggled for long stretches of the year and only scored twenty last week against a Bears defence that has been rotten all year.

This line does worry me a little, but Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal at home and I’m backing him to carry that forward into the playoffs. The real question will be if he can take it on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Rams @ Seahawks (-12.5)

The Seahawks have been playing great football over the last few weeks and no team will relish the trip to Seattle in the playoffs. Their defence has been at the heart of this resurgence, but even the offence got into the act last week, generating nearly six hundred yards with great games from Marshawn Lynch in the run game and Russell Wilson who generated yards with his arm and legs.

The Rams came back to Earth with a bump last week, losing to the Giants. Their defence has really come round, but the offence is struggling and they are another team who will be searching for an answer at quarterback in the offseason.

This is a lot of points, but the Seahawks are playing so well at home at the moment that I fancy them to cover the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Cardinals @ 49ers (-5.5)

The 49ers surprised me with how well they did last week, but whilst their offence did put up good numbers, they were going against a Chargers defence that was ranked twenty-third in the league by DVOA. It was good to see the long run from Colin Kaepernick, as it reminded you just what a physical talent he is, but next season he will need to develop in the pass game if this team are going to have more success. The 49ers will also need to improve their o-line for this to happen, as it has regressed markedly this season. Still, the main improvement could be stability at head coach as I don’t see how the turmoil that has surround Jim Harbaugh could have failed to affect the team.

The Cardinals are limping into the playoffs, with question marks surrounding their offence, and the quarterback in particular. Last week’s loss to the Seahawks was a rough one, but the Cardinals will be desperate to establish something on offence before they head into the playoffs. I am surprised by the number of points that the 49ers are giving in this game and I’m backing the Cardinals coaching staff who have done a phenomenal job of coping with the large number of injuries they’ve had this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Bengals @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Steelers are one of the scarier playoff prospects as when the offence takes off, be it Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown in the pass game or Le’Veon Bell in the run game, they can take over a game. The defence can show flashes, but you can exploit their secondary and the front seven can’t always bring the pass rush like they have in previous years. Still, this is a veteran team that knows how to win when it matters most.

The Bengals are almost the complete opposite in that prime time games have been an issue throughout Marvin Lewis’ tenure as head coach. One win against the Broncos on Monday Night Football does not change this, but it could be a turning point and the Bengals will be desperate to avenge the bad ten minutes they are claiming lost them the previous meeting with the Steelers, and defend their AFC North title. I can pretty much envision any result happening in this game, but I think it will be close so between getting points and blind optimism, I am backing the Bengals in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

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NFL Week 16: Titans @ Jaguars Recap and Picks

20 Saturday Dec 2014

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Titans @ Jaguars

This game was not only interesting, buy pretty enjoyable as the Jaguars managed to pick up their third win of the season.

The Titans opened the game strong taking a ten point lead having elected to receive the ball as they wanted to get off to a fast start. And this is exactly what they got in their opening drive, going eighty-four yard with several nice throws by career backup Charlie Whitehurst, including a lovely twenty-one yard pass to Delaine Walker that must have settled the nerves of everyone on the Titans’ sideline.

In fact the story of this game was the quarterback play, along with pass protection issues, and the Jaguars defence.

The Titans played the more consistently on offence, with Whitehurst throwing some lovely balls and them demonstrating a balanced approach. However, I was pretty impressed with the Jaguars defence that played very tough and frequently caused the Titans problems getting four sacks and really stifling the Titans except for a couple of drives. In fact, the only really impressive drive after their opening drive was in the fourth quarter, when Whitehurst drove them up the field with a succession of good looking passes to different receivers. However, when it really mattered he couldn’t get the ball into the end zone, with a lovely pass defence by Jonathan Cyprien on third down resulting in a Titans field goal. The Jaguars made life difficult for him and I was really impressed by fith round pick Telvin Smith who seemed to be popping consistently in good places from inside linebacker.

If you just compare the numbers of the quarterbacks, you would have thought that the Titans’ had won the game with Whitehurst throwing for over twice as many yards as Blake Bortles. However, I think that Bortles had a better game than these numbers indicate as whilst the Titans were bad in pass protection, the Jaguars were horrible. On one of the few times that Bortles stood in the pocket in the first half he got absolutely drilled. The Jaguars made good use of bootlegs, options, and play action to move Bortles in an attempt to get him time to throw, but often even doing this the Titans were really coming after him. However, there were a few lovely passes amongst the wayward and there could be potential here. The other positive, was although Bortles rushed for fifty yards in this game, and there were option plays being run, he only kept the ball once that I remember on one of these and most of the time he was scrambling out of necessity. Another good point about his running was the absence of heroics, Bortles got what yards he could and then got down. He may have escaped a safety and made up twenty-six yards for the first down, but he didn’t take a hit and that bodes well for his longevity. However, we really won’t know if he has the ability to make the throws you need to be a quality starter until he gets an offensive line that can protect him.

The Titans really were pretty nondescript and it will be interesting what approach they take in the offseason to turn things round, where as I really do think there are some good things beginning to be put together in Jacksonville, but it was always going to take time to turn around a team who had been as bad as the Jaguars were.

And now we get back to the week sixteen picks, pausing only to give you the standings after week 15

Gee:      Week 15   11-5                   Overall   112-112
Dan:       Week 15   7-9                     Overall   113-111

Eagles @ Semi-Pros (+8.5)

The Semi-Pros lost their starting quarterback Colt McCoy to a reoccurrence of his neck injury and so it was time for Robert Griffin to return, shortly after being benched, but even if it was good to see him escape the pocket and get into the end zone, he managed to fumble the boy and lose the touchdown. He did have one passing touchdown and more importantly, managed not to throw an interception but the Semi-Pros never got themselves back in the game against the Giants. The new low key Robert Griffin might help calm the media circus that currently sounds the team, but it is going to take a solid offseason of work to correct the litany of faults that Jay Gruden mentioned a few weeks ago. Whether either of them will be with this team to do this is anyone’s guess, but for now they welcome a smarting Eagles team to FedEx Field.

The Eagles fell out of the playoff places after their loss against the Cowboys last week, and will have to win both of their next two games and hope that results go their way to get back in. They could very well go 11-5 and fail to make the playoffs. They have been a very good team with okay quarterback play, which has probably cost them over the last few weeks with Mark Sanchez throwing nine interceptions to ten touchdowns. The other problem they had last week was that they kept leaving Dez Bryant in single coverage, and your pass rush is not going to get to Tony Romo against the Cowboys o-line before Bryant gets open. He is too good of a receiver to let this happen, and in this game he caught six balls for 114 yards and three touchdowns. The good news is that the miss-firing Semi-Pro offence does not offer similar challenges, and their secondary could really struggle against the fast paced Eagles offence.

I expect Chip Kelly’s team to get back to winning ways this week, but I’m not sure they make the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Chargers @ 49ers (-2.5)

The 49ers season continues to fall apart, they performed as I expected last week, and even lost one if the few bright spots of their season when Chris Borland injured his ankle, possibly putting an end to his eye catching debut season. They also finally released Ray McDonald this week, who was not charged with anything following an investigation regarding domestic violence earlier this year, but who is now being investigated on suspicion of sexual assault. The season can’t be over quickly enough for the 49ers so they can sort their coaching situation and start preparing for next season.

The injuries caught up with the Chargers a few weeks ago, but it also appears that quarterback Philip Rivers may be battling a more significant back injury than the team were letting on.  Losing four centres would be enough to cripple any team’s season, yet the Chargers are a very respectable 8-6, and if they can get healthy next year then they could really push on. They have lost their last two games, but given they were facing the Patriots and Broncos this is perhaps not surprising and I think they will get back on track this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Falcons @ Saints (-6.5)

This is another strange game brought to you by the NFC South.

Before the season it would have been unthinkable that the Saints would lose four straight games at home, but that is what they have done, and having beaten the woeful Bears on the road last week, they welcome the Falcons. I really don’t have a handle on this team, their offence is top ten by DVOA but their defence has been an awful thirtieth by DVOA.

The Falcons offence is only ranked one place lower that the Saints despite losing nearly an entire starting line up of offensive linemen, but their defence is even worse, ranked as they are at the bottom of the league.

I am worried about the injury status of Julio Jones, but I’m not sure what the Saints have done to be nearly a touchdown up against anyone at home this season and I think that the Falcons really could win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Lions @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears season continues to be an exercise in pain for their fans, with another loss and the benching of the leagues most expensive offensive player.  Jay Cutler’s stats were horrible last week, and the team may need a change just to mix things up, but there doesn’t seem to be a coherent plan and you have to wonder what is going to happen during the offseason in Chicago.

The Lions got the win against a Vikings team that are playing tough defence, and their offence looked like its troubled self again having had a good couple of weeks. However, those good performances started against the Bears and given the way the Chicago defence has been playing, I think the Lions should be able to get going again and setup a huge final game against the Packers in Lambeau Field.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Browns @ Panthers (-4.5)

The Panthers got their second win over the Buccaneers with Derek Anderson under centre, but we don’t know for sure yet who the starter will be for the Panthers in this game. This should make me nervous about picking this game, but whilst I think they have to start him to find out what they have in their first round pick, Johnny Manziel was awful last week and I think it’s going to be a difficult end to what has been a very promising first season for Mike Pettine in charge of the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Packers @ Buccaneers (+10.5)

The Buccaneers have been playing well on defence recently, but they’ve just lost Gerald McCoy and this is making me hesitant. The Packers may have been peerless at home, but have been much more of mixed bag on the road. The Bills defence has been playing brilliantly all season, and it was a perfect storm of good play and misfires from the Packers that resulted in the Bills winning last week. I don’t see the Buccaneers winning the game, but I’m tempted by the line to back them to cover. If this was a matter of money then I would be staying well away from this game, but as it’s not I’m prepared to just look stupid.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers kept the pressure on in the AFC North race with another win. This is a team that has terrifying ability to take over a game in very little time with explosions of offence as the Bengals learnt to their cost two weeks ago. However, their defence is just flat out bad this season and with a couple of injuries in their secondary, they could be really exploited in this area of the field.

The problem is that whilst the Chiefs will know about the problems with the Steelers defence, they don’t have the receivers to take advantage. You have to admire the coaching staff’s commitment to staying with what works for them, but the fact that they don’t have a receiving touchdown amongst their receivers this season does not bode well when that is the obvious way to attack your opponent. The Chiefs have done amazingly well considering this handicap, but I don’t think the Steelers will be doing the Bengals any favours this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Vikings @ Dolphins (-6.5)

The Dolphins season seems to be fading at the worst time, despite seeing enough development from their third year quarterback Ryan Tannehill to answer a lot of the questions that surrounded him at the start of the season. However, there are questions about the coaching job that Joe Philbin has done this season, but the big concern at the moment is the defence which has been struggling in recent weeks, particularly against the run. This could be a real problem in this game as although the Vikings are ranked twenty-second in offence by DVOA, they are ranked fourth in rushing offence.

The Vikings have quietly gone 6-8 this despite losing Adrian Peterson for the season, and an o-line that has not exactly been giving rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater the protection that he needs. However, Mike Zimmer has his defence playing solidly and his team have been in every game for a month including a narrow two point loss to the Packers, and he has the rushing attack to exploit a Dolphins defence that has struggled against the run in recent weeks. I fancy them to keep this game close and possibly beat a Dolphins team who have seen the playoffs slip out of their grasp.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets (+10.5)

I want to pick the Jets in this game. The double digit lines have been causing me problems for a lot of the season. The problems is that whilst the Jets are playing hard and just got a win against the awful Titans, they are horrible on offence and fatally flawed on defence as they don’t have the cornerbacks to play Rex Ryan’s defensive system.

I still think there are signs that Tom Brady is creeping towards being human, but he and the team have been playing so well since their bad start to the season, and having smashed the Dolphins last week, I think they will cover again this week when they visit the Jets. I may be worried about it being a divisional road game for the Patriots, but that apparently this isn’t going to stop me backing them.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Ravens @ Texans (+4.5)

The Texans have basically run out of quarterbacks with Ryan Fitzpatrick going down with a broken leg. This is such a shame for a team that with a bit more consistency from that position and Arian Foster not missing games could have pushed for a playoff spot. Not only will they miss the playoffs, but a losing record makes it that much harder for JJ Watt to win MVP, even though he has had the most ridiculous of seasons. He has more caught touchdowns than the Chiefs entire receiving corp. However, their problem in this game is that they are starting Case Keenum who was picked up this week off the Rams’ practice squad, but who was with the Texans all through training camp. This is an issue as the glaring place to attack the Ravens is in the passing game as they have just lost yet another member of the secondary, but I just don’t see it happening.

The Ravens are a scarily complete team, with the one glaring flaw I just mentioned, but I don’t see their injured secondary hurting them in this game. The offence is working well, and there defensive front might actually be playing better since Haloti Ngata’s suspension as it has increased Timmy Jernigan’s playing time. They may be on the road in this game, but I don’t expect that to stop them.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Giants @ Rams (-5.5)

The Rams have a defence that is playing really well over the recent weeks (they are top ten by DVOA), but they cannot move the ball on offence and so having got a couple of wins, they were unable to beat the Cardinals last week. I think this should be a close game, but whilst I can see them winning the game, I’m not sure I can see them beating the Giants by this much.

The Giants season has been massively disappointing, but they have one of the most exciting rookie receivers that we have seen in years. They are ranked a few places higher in offence by DVOA, but there defence is much worse. However, the Eli Manning to Odell Beckham Jnr. Connection is so much more effective than anything that the Rams offence can offer that I think it will keep them in the game.

In the end, I’m taking the points in a game where the team records are only separated by a win.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Bills @ Raiders (+5.5)

Oakland crashed back to earth last week with a heavy loss against the Chiefs. They have some pieces to build around for next year, but who will be coaching them and what the plan will be is anyone’s guess at this point. It will be interesting to see how things evolve, but I think we could have seen their last win of the season, as they follow this game against the Bills with a visit to the Broncos.

The Bills got an excellent win against the Packers, and whilst there were some miscues from the Packers offence, the Bills defence continued their strong play and now lead the league in defensive DVOA. I think they will have more than enough to deal with the Raiders this week, and it will be interesting to see what they do about the quarterback position in the offseason, as this is the one thing that give me pause in this game. Still, whilst I’m wary of a drop off from last week, I have no trust in the Raiders and I think it could be a very long day for Derek Carr against the Bills’ fearsome pass rush.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Colts @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Cowboys really impressed me with their win against the Eagles last week, and Tony Romo looked a lot more like the quarterback who played so well at the beginning of the year. The problem is that DeMarco Murray broke his hand and we’re still not sure if he will be playing with a cast. However, I’m prepared to take a risk here as the Cowboys’ offensive line has been simply fabulous this year and I think that any competent back can probably have success behind it. They didn’t get a great deal of yards last week against the Eagles, but the Colts defence is not such a fierce proposition.

The truth is that the Colts have been getting away with it for the last few weeks. Andrew Luck has a surprising number of fumbles and interceptions, and it’s only been down to some redemptive heroics on his part that they haven’t dropped a couple of games. The Patriots were the last team to beat them, but they also gave the league a template for doing it, and the Cowboys have the offensive line to run the ball down the throat of the Colts defence like the Pats did in week eleven. I think this will be an interesting game, and could reveal a lot about both of these teams’ prospects in the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ Cardinals (7.5)

This is going to be an ugly game, both teams are playing good defence and both have their challenges on offence.

The Cardinals have had so many injuries, but Ryan Lindley as quarterback might be a handicap too far for the Cardinals who somehow have only three losses despite being on their third starting quarterback and the fourth to play for them this season. They have not been running the ball well for most of the season, but did manage to do so last week with a balance of Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor.

The Seahawks have been back to their best on defence over the last few weeks and are peaking at the right time of the season. No one will want to play them at the moment, but they are limited on offence as Russell Wilson doesn’t’ have the skill players to throw to. I think that the Seahawks are going to win this game, but I don’t see them having enough offence against the Cardinals defence to get a win big enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5)

I am terrified of this game. The Bengals looked really good against the Browns last week, but a high pressure Monday Night Football appearance is not what I would have chosen for a must win game if we are to make the playoffs. This is a chance for our January woes to come a visiting in December, and whilst I’m happy that we’ve seem to have found the right balance in the run game, the defence is not where it was last year in terms of consistency and run stopping, whilst everything sits on Andy Dalton’s big game play. Like I said, I have no confidence in this game.

The Broncos have been winning ugly in recent weeks, and something is going on with Peyton Manning as although he’s been throwing wobbly balls for years, they are lacking zip and he hasn’t had a good performance since week thirteen. The bad new for the Bengals is that the Broncos seem to have found a formula to run the ball and their defence has been playing well all season. They may not be dominating like they were earlier this season or last year, but they have built the team to win in other ways than riding the arm of Manning and I suspect this will seem them through in this game.

I would love for this to be a break out game for Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton, a win here could turn around the narrative surrounding them in big games, and at the beginning of the season I was hopeful that they could get a playoff win and push on as there is so much talent on the roster, but I’m still haunted by the previous losses to the Patriots and Browns in prime TV spots. Prove me wrong guys!

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Special

18 Thursday Dec 2014

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My Schedule this week is horrible so I am posting the Thursday night preview now, and will be putting up a recap and the rest of the week’s games up over the weekend, hopefully avoiding breaking the games into a further two parts now that we have Saturday games to contend with as well.

I somehow managed a miraculous comeback last week, going 11-5 to take four games out of what I thought was an unassailable five game lead for Dan. I can’t pretend to be excited about tonight’s game, but I think it will be interesting and part of me is sad that once again I won’t get to go through any coaching tape, so onto:

Titans @ Jaguars (-3.5)

With all the exciting games that have playoff implications, we get the Titans at the Jaguars this week, pitting the thirtieth ranked team by overall DVOA against the thirty-first.

The Jaguars defence is the best unit on display, playing respectably tough and are ranked sixteenth by DVOA, but the Jaguars’ offence is horrible and ranked dead last. I don’t think we can know if Blake Bortles is the long term answer until he is playing behind a line that can offer him any kind of protection. They have invested draft picks in this unit, but they have not panned out and a major focus this offseason has to be to upgrade the line so they can see what they have in their quarterback and young receivers. The good news is that much like a couple of other teams with poor records, the players are working really hard for their coach and so I don’t think it is time for a massive overhaul as the Jaguars are building something, but they need more talent.

The Titans seem to be one of the most nondescript franchises in the league, and this is most exemplified by the fact that the player who has performed the best from their opening day roster, is Akeem Ayers, who only started to play really well after being traded to the Patriots. Unfortunately for them, their rookie quarterback Zack Mettenberger has been forced out with injury before he could establish if he was a viable long term starter so the only thing we can say for certain is that given that Jake Locker is injured yet again, we can be pretty sure he isn’t. This is a team that is ranked by DVOA as twenty-ninth in offense, twenty-eighth in defence, and twentieth in special teams, and so there doesn’t seem to be anything they can hang their hat on as an identity.

I’m really uncomfortable with this pick, but I can’t bring myself to back the Titans on the road, so whilst it seems strange to pick the Jaguars over anybody, I think they will win out in this game.

Gee’s Pick:           Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:           Jaguars

NFL Week 15: Cardinals @ Rams Recap

14 Sunday Dec 2014

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This was a strange game that never quite took off, although it remained a tight contest right to the end. The problem was that whilst I love defence and both teams posses really good ones, neither of them had good enough offences to provide a consistent challenge to the opposition.

Both defences were ranked in the top ten by DVOA coming into this week, but they got there in very different ways. The Rams are built on a pretty terrifying front seven and a defensive line that can get consistent pressure with a standard pass rush. The Cardinals however, are built from the secondary forwards, and rely on their corners to stand up in coverage whilst they consistently bring extra people to rush the passer. In fact I have never seen a cornerback blitz as frequently as Jerraud Powers did in this game, and at the end of the game I saw him rush three straight times, on the final one sealing the game when he batted down a pass. It is also worth mentioning that Greg Cosell said in his spot on the Ross Tucker Football podcast this week that he thinks that the Rams safety pairing of T.J. McDonald and Rodney McLeod are as good as any pair in the league, and as he gets to watch the coaching tape and I didn’t this week, I have no reason to disbelieve him.

Neither of these teams have the starting quarterback they expected for the season, with the Rams losing Sam Bradford in preseason and the Cardinals’ Carson Palmer going down in week ten in their previous meeting with the Rams. I have written about what a good job Bruce Arians has done coaching the Cardinals this season, and this was the case again in this game when the Cardinals lost Drew Stanton with a sprained knee after taking a sack from Aaron Donald with Eugene Sims and Alec Ogletree also in on the play. This is not the first time that Arians has been down to his third string quarterback, yet his team won the game and stand atop of the murderous NFC West with an 11-3 record.

There were no touchdowns scored in this game as neither team could get through the oppositions red-zone defence or get a long play for a touchdown. There was consistent pressure but only three sacks total in the game, and they generated virtually identical amounts of yards in offence. However, whilst both teams had the occasional good looking pass amongst the bad ones, with the Rams having the better results of the two, the Cardinals protected the ball better as they did not turn the ball over whilst the Rams gave up an interception and one of their two fumbles. The Cardinals were also able to run the football more effectively, generating 143 of their 274 yards from thirty-three attempts and controlling the clock with a nine minute advantage in time of possession.

It was in these small advantages that the Cardinals were able to eek out the win. The long punt return that Ted Ginn broke early in the third quarter was not capitalised upon in the ensuing drive, in fact the Cardinal went three and out, but after forcing the Rams to punt on the next drive they were able to win the field position battle and kick a field goal. It was this consistent play if anything that won them the game, after being held scoreless in the first quarter, they continued to get points in each quarter whilst the Rams could only bookend the game with field goals in the first and fourth quarters.

There were some excellent catches made in this game from both teams, but the real highlight of the game other was a career milestone when Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest receiver ever to catch nine hundred passes in the NFL. This should have occurred on a proper highlight play as Stanton dropped a lovely ball through bracket coverage to Fitzgerald for twenty-seven yards with a seven man rush coming, but unfortunately he only had time to do this as centre Lyle Sendlein held defensive tackle Kendall Langford as he burst through between Sendlein and right guard Ted Larsen.

This is another season for the Rams where they are finishing strongly and demonstrating that if they can just get a quarterback, they would be a real team to watch, but they have to find the answer at quarterback and they haven’t done so yet. The Cardinals look to be heading to the playoffs, although whether then can make a splash given their injury status is anybody’s guess, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against it given how consistently they have proved me wrong when I have doubted them.

NFL Week 15 Picks

11 Thursday Dec 2014

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Week fourteen was one to forget for me, a horrible loss to the Steelers for the Bengals, and a 7-9 record that’s dropped me a likely unrecoverable five games behind Dan with only three more weeks to go. The race for the playoffs are really heating up, nowhere is that more true than in the AFC North so let’s get cracking with the week fifteen games.

Gee:      Week 14   7-9                     Overall   101-107
Dan:       Week 14   10-6                   Overall   106-102

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

This should be an interesting Thursday night game and I’m really not sure where to go with this one.

The Rams have just shut out two teams in a row, and even through it was against the Raiders and the Washington Semi-Professional football team, this is still some achievement. The defence has been playing better for several weeks, even before Chris Long returned, and I suspect that the Cardinals will have problems moving the ball this week. If they can find themselves a quarterback in the offseason then the Rams could be a very interesting team next year.

The Cardinals managed to somehow stop the rot last week against the Chiefs, despite yet more injuries and the play of Drew Stanton. I think that Bruce Arians has been coach of the year and I’m really looking forward to watching their defence again this week. I’m backing the Cardinals in this game as I’m fed up of picking against them, it feels like every time I do they punish me for it.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Steelers @ Falcons (+2.5)

It was pretty impressive how competitive the Falcons made their game against the Packers considering they were 31-7 down at half time. They have been playing a bit better in recent weeks as they remain at the top of the awful NFC south. The problem is that whilst their offence has always had the talent at the skill positions and has begun to play better recently, the defence is not good and has very little pass rush. In fact, they are dead last by DVOA and I don’t see that changing this week.

The Steelers defence has been shaky all season, but whilst the offence has been patchy, when they are on they can be devastating, as they proved this weekend. They have their own version of the Cowboy triplets with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. The Steelers should not be in this position as they have some horrible losses, but now we are at the business end of the season they will be there or there abouts, and I expect them to have too much for the Falcons.

I can see this being a high scoring game, but whilst I would be thrilled if the Falcon could do the Bengals a favour, I can’t see it happening.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Packers @ Bills (+5.5)

The Bills defence really is very good and is not getting a lot of help from their offence. If you had offered them a stat line of 173 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions from Peyton Manning before the game, they would have taken your arm off. However, they couldn’t take advantage of this despite out gaining them by over one hundred yards. The problem is that having traded their first round pick for next year to get Sammy Watkins, I’m not sure how they will fix the QB problem in the offseason.

The Packers had to work to keep ahead of the Falcons in the second half, but they continue to be a step above as part of an elite four. I would love JJ Watt to win this year’s MVP, but I can only see it going to Aaron Rogers who has been playing brilliantly. Their defence is also playing more than well enough to cope with the Bills and whilst they are on the road this week, I think they are good enough to cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Bengals @ Browns (+0.5)

The Browns lost a heartbreaker on Sunday against the Colts, and it looks like Johnny Manziel will be getting the start on Sunday against the Bengals. This is perhaps not surprising given how Brian Hoyer has struggled over the last few weeks, but whilst Johnny Football may be able to make some plays with his legs, I’m not sure if he is going to make that much difference to the offensive stuggles that this team are now going through. Their defence will keep them in this game as they have been playing really well and almost did enough last week to beat the Colts.

The Bengals never make things easy for themselves, and having picked up a game on everybody in the AFC North two weeks ago, came crashing back to the pack with a frustrating loss to the Steelers. The big plays at the end of the game were daggers to the heart, and unusual for a secondary that has held up so well throughout the season. I can’t be the only Bengals fan who is missing Mike Zimmer, and finally losing Vontaze Burfict to IR hardly inspires me with confidence given how much the defence has missed them this season. That said, AJ Green is coming of a career day and I’m sure the coaching staff will be reminding the team of the dismal result earlier this season in their Thursday night game. This is the Bengals’ easiest game left with the Broncos visiting next week and what looks like it could a huge trip to Pittsburgh to finish the season.

This could be a huge mistake as Andy Dalton hasn’t exactly proved himself in pressure games, but I have to keep faith for one more week. This is the triumph of hope over experience.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Texans @ Colts (-6.5)

The Colts are leading their division thanks to the ability of Andrew Luck in pressure situations and because TY Hilton seems to have an amazing knack of getting open for huge plays in what feels like every game. However, their offence line is not good, their running game is horrible, and their defence has been playing badly recently. Having to come from behind at the end of the game against the Browns does not inspire confidence.

The Texans maybe limited at quarterback, but they have Arian Foster back and are coming off a pair of wins. Admittedly these were against the Jaguars and Titans, but you can only beat the opposition in front of you and they finished off both competently. I have feeling that JJ Watt is going to have another great game against a Colts line that has given up too much pressure recently.

I’m not sure that the Texans can actually win this game, but I think it will be closer than the six and a half points that the Colts are giving them so I’m baking JJ Watt as life is just more fun that way.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Chiefs were in the game with thirty seconds to go, and had no vertical passing game to try to win but didn’t even try. This is the Chiefs’ biggest problem this season, and to top it off they have not thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all year either. Their defence has been playing well with Justin Houston having sixteen sacks this year, jointly leading the league with the Ravens’ Elvis Dumervil. They will be desperate to halt a three game losing streak and avenge their week twelve loss to their bitter divisional rivals.

The Raiders have won two out of their last three games, and look to have found their quarterback of the future. That said, it is one thing to pick a couple of wins at home, it is another to go into Arrowhead Stadium and beat their divisional rivals. I don’t think they will have enough to win this game, but I have no idea what the Chiefs have done recently to get a double digit spread in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Dolphins @ Patriots (-7.5)

The Dolphins took a narrow lead into half time against the Ravens and then fell apart in the second half. Even more worrying is that there definitely appears to be a problem with their rush defence as they got gouged for 183 yards, following up the 277 yards they gave up against the run the week before. Ryan Tannehill is running the offence within his limitations, but his is still throwing too many interceptions and they are not scoring enough points. There is an awful lot of talent on this team, but it doesn’t seem to clicking when it matters most and so a trip to snowy New England is probably not what they need right now.

The Patriots don’t lose two games in a row very often, and they righted the ship last week against the Chargers. Their secondary is playing really well and should be able to contain the Dolphins passing game, particularly as Tannehill doesn’t seem to throw the deep ball. Perhaps more worrying for the Dolphins, is the physical run game that the Patriots used to batter the Colts in week eleven, racking up well over two hundred yards in the process. I think there’s a definite chance we could see that again this week and I don’t fancy the team from Florida travelling well this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Semi-Pros @ Giants (-6.5)

The Giants have some great young talent from this last draft, but they’ve had too many failures in the preceding drafts to maintain the depth that they need. Their have been brief periods of good play, and they are still working hard for a head coach who deserves better. They are coming of a solid win against the sinking Titans and face another of the NFL’s bottom tier of teams this week. This is not a good team, but they have enough bright spots to beat a Washington team that is in disarray. Given what happened to the Semi-Pro’s secondary against the Colts in week thirteen, it will be interesting to see how big a day Odell Beckham Jnr has.

The Semi-Pros are in such a mess. Their o-line couldn’t protect Colt McCoy and he was taken out of the game with a neck injury that put Robert Griffin back into the game. The Semi-Pros have not announced which of their QBs will start in replacement of McCoy but given their respective play, neither are enticing prospects.

The Giants are giving a lot of points for a team of their quality, but there’s no way I’m backing the Semi-Pros this week, and with games coming up against the Eagles and Cowboys, I won’t be picking them again this year without getting an extraordinary amount of points.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-5.5)

It’s probable that Cam Newton just can’t wait for this wretched season to end. After being nicked up for most of the season behind a bad line, he finally puts together a good performance as his team smashes the Saints, and then he’s involved in a car crash. He has a couple of fractures to the vertebrae in his lower back, similar to the injury that Tony Romo had earlier in the season. You would think that with a 4-8-1 record that it would be time to pack Newton in for the year, but in the NFC South such a record means you are only a game out from the divisional lead. In the first game of the season Derek Anderson led the Panthers to a solid win over the Buccaneers in Tampa, the question is whether the Panthers can repeat their performance last week or did the Saints just make them look good.

The Buccaneers are on a three game losing steak, but got soundly beaten by the Lions, having run the Bengals close at home the week before. Josh McCown took a real beating last week, but should have a much easier time against an anaemic Panthers pass rush and Mike Evans could have a field day against a Panthers secondary that has looked bad for most of the season. I think they have some hope in these matchups and their defence has been playing okay so I see them at least keeping it close.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Jaguars @ Ravens (-13.5)

This is a fairly straight forward game to me. The Ravens have a very good team everywhere bar the secondary, and the Jaguars don’t have the offence to take advantage of this. The other thing is that whilst the Jaguars have kept games close against teams with a similar record, when they have played good teams they have not only lost, but lost by a lot, including eight games by fourteen points or more.

I’m five games behind Dan and I need to make some up by taking some risks and I’ve not had a good time backing the Jaguars, even with a line this big.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens (Turns out it’s not much of a risk when Dan picks the same team as me!)

Broncos @ Chargers (+3.5)

This is a second tough home game in a row for Chargers as they follow up a visit from the Patriots with one from the Broncos. There aren’t many teams who would be able to keep both of these games competitive, but the Chargers were credible in their first game against the Patriots. Sadly though, whilst they kept it close for most of the game, the Patriots’ defence was able to clamp down and prevent the Chargers scoring any points in the second half. The problem for the Chargers is that the Broncos are ranked third in defence by DVOA and are likely to cause them problems as well.

The interesting thing in this week’s game will be the performance of Peyton Manning, who had his streak of fifty-one games with a touchdown broken last week against the Bills. There will be a lot of talk about regression and I’m sure cold weather will be mentioned in the coming weeks, but you wouldn’t bet against Manning bouncing back with a point to prove. The worrying thing for the Chargers is that Broncos seem to have found themselves a run game recently and an o-line configuration that has been playing better. It appears that the Broncos offence now has a plan B to go along with the improved defence.

There may have been some fluctuations in their performance over the year, but the Broncos have proved themselves to be one of the elite teams of the NFL, whilst the Chargers are that lit bit behind them. I think this should a really good game but I’m backing the Broncos, and Manning in warm weather, to win out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Jets @ Titans (+1.5)

The Titans look to have lost rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger for the rest of the season, and for a team as non-descript as the Titans there doesn’t look to be much left to play for. This week they welcome the Jets in a game that pits two teams that have a share of the worst record in the league against each other. I give a slight edge to the Jets, the players are really trying for Rex Ryan, who is a good coach that is severely lacking in talent, but then so are the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Vikings @ Lions (-7.5)

In the last couple of weeks the Lions seem to have got their offence working again, and have kept themselves in the fight for a playoff spot. They have a sequence of three divisional games including a final game against the Packers in Lambeau Field. Their defence has been playing brilliantly for most of the season and have led the league by DVOA for weeks. They are one of four teams with a nine and four record and it will be a travesty when we have to lose one for the which ever team makes it out of the NFC South.

This week the Lions welcome a solid Vikings team who have improved across the season and have got themselves to a 6-7 record with a solid effort on defence and a top ten rushing attack. I don’t think that they have enough to beat the Lions in Detroit, but they have won their last two games and only lost to the Packers by three points and I have a feeling they will keep this one close.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

There are only so many ways that you can write that the coaching situation in San Francisco is a mess, with all the problems swirling round Jim Harbaugh and an offence that is stuttering, all letting down a solid defence. Even the play of rookie linebacker Chris Borland, who leads the teams in tackles, won’t be enough to wash away the aftertaste of a bitter loss to the team from across the bay. If losing in Oakland wasn’t bad enough, they now have to travel to Seattle.

The Seahawks defence is back with a swagger and they have looked like their old selves for three games in a row. Holding the Eagles to fourteen points in Philadelphia is really impressive and they must be salivating at the prospect of welcoming the misfiring 49ers this week. This number should make me pause, particularly given the shortcomings of the Seahawks passing attack, but they beat the 49ers by sixteen points in San Francisco and I think this could be a very long day for the visiting team.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Cowboys @ Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles offence got suffocated last week against the Seahawks, managing only a pitiful 139 yards of total offence from a unit that is still fifteenth by DVOA despite the difficulties they’ve had in Chip Kelley’s second year. This week they welcome the Cowboys who are coming off a sold win against the Bears, but it is only two weeks since the Eagles soundly beat the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

I expect Tony Romo to look better than he did in that game as he won’t be working on a short week with a back injury, but the Eagles defence has shown that it can give the Cowboys’ offence problems and the Cowboys defence has looked shaky for weeks now. This could be the perfect pick me up for the Eagles as they go from playing against the fourth best defence in the league by DVOA to the twenty-fourth.

I don’t think the game will be as lopsided as it was in Dallas, but I think the Eagles get back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Saints @ Bears (+2.5)

This is just a mess of a game, and I’m sure this is not what the schedulers had in mind when they designated this game for the prime time Monday night slot before the season.

The Bears continue to struggle and have now lost receiver Brandon Marshall for the rest of the season, although they’ve not been making the best use of him up to now. The defence is a horror show and the offence has been over reliant on screens and short passing, making surprisingly little use of Matt Forte’s talents in the run game or Jay Cutlers big arm in the vertical passing game.

The problem with picking a side in this one is that the Saints are not much better, coming off a fourth home loss in a row. The Saints have only won one game in their last five and yet somehow still have a share of the lead in the NFC South. The defence has been horrible, with Rob Ryan’s vocal breakdowns on the sideline being a feature throughout the season. The Saints offence has shown flashes of its former glory and statistically is not bad, ranking in the top ten by DVOA, but it has been misfiring at crucial moments and something has not seemed quite right with Drew Brees all season.

I almost feel like I am blindly picking this game, but the Saints still have something to play for and the Bears are just horrible on defence. Meanwhile, whilst Drew Brees seems a little off, his stats are really not that much different to previous years, where as we know very well what Jay Cutler is at this point.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

NFL Week 14 Picks: Running Late with Thursday Night Recap Edition

06 Saturday Dec 2014

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A horrible weekend picking games bled into a rubbish week that saw me drop two games behind Dan and run late with the picks this week as work and domestic issues ate all my time. One of the reasons I love the NFL is its unpredictability, but it can make picking game hell. I am going to keep what I wrote about the Thursday night game before it happened, and then give you a recap before I finish the rest of the week’s games.

Gee:     Week 13   3-13                        Overall   94-98
Dan:     Week 13   6-10                        Overall   96-96

Cowboys @ Bears (+3.5)

The Preview:

Neither of these teams played well in their Thanksgiving games with the Cowboys offence struggling against the Eagles tough defence and Tony Romo looking like he is feeling the affects of his back injury. There is already talk of the Cowboys annual December slump and whether this team could fall to another eight and eight season but I don’t see it happening. As unimpressive as the Cowboys were, they were positively inspiring compared to the Bears, whose offence continues to stutter whilst the defence was indeed the perfect unit for the Lions to get going against. I’m not making the mistake of believing in the Bears again this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

The Recap

This game did nothing but confirm what I was already thinking. I’m not sure why the Bears seemed to abandon the run again for a second week in a row. You could understand them doing it against the Lions as no one has had success rushing against their defence all year, but the Cowboys run defence was ranked twenty-fourth by DVOA coming into this game, but once again it was short passes to Forte and forcing the ball to Martellus Bennet. They managed to get some garbage time points in the fourth quarter, but even as they began to edge towards an unlikely come back, Jay Cutler threw an interception into the end zone and the game was over. This team is in a mess and I worry about how they are going to get themselves out of it, tied as they are to a lot of the personnel on offence that just aren’t doing it this season and a defence that is dreadful.

The Cowboy on the other seem to be intent on killing DeMarco Murray who ran the ball thirty-two times for 179 yards and caught nine passes. The Cowboys offensive line is outstanding, allowing Tony Romo to function despite his injuries, and he definitely looked better than he did on Thanksgiving working on a short week. The worrying thing is that the defence is definitely looking like it is breaking down a bit. There was barely any pass rush and whilst they are very much in the playoff hunt, I can’t see them making much of a dent if they do get there.

Steelers @ Bengals (-3.5)

Oh boy was the end of the Bengals game tense this week. I didn’t know about Dalton’s sickness until Monday, but the defence continues to look better whilst the offence found a way to win in the second half. I think a special mention must go to Mohamed Sanu who is having a great season in place of the injured Marvin Jones, and was the number one receiver whilst AJ Green was injured earlier in the season. He also threw an eleven yard pass in this game to take his NFL career record to five out five completions for 177 yards and two touchdowns.

This week they face the hated Steelers, who are driving me round the bend this season due to their inconsistency. I do not have a handle on them at all, their defence looks fragile and is a surprising twenty-ninth by DVOA, but whilst their offence can be spectacular with Roethlisberger throwing six touchdowns in two consecutive games, Le’Veon Bell looking as good as any running back in the league and already has 1000 yards rushing this season, whilst Antonio Brown is one of the elite receivers in the game, they have also misfired in several games. The fact is that the Steelers have lost against the Buccaneers, Jets, Titans, and last week they welcomed the Saints who had lost three straight at home and lost again.

This could be a complete homer pick, but I’m sticking by my Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Colts @ Browns (+3.5)

The Colts big win against the Semi-Pros of Washington masked an interesting start to the game for Andrew Luck who early on in the game had a fumble and an interception before he had a completion. Luck is so good that he gets forgiven these errors, but he and the Colts will need to tighten their game up against the Browns this week as they are not going to see the repeated blown coverages that they got against the Semi-Pros, who also scored twenty-seven points against a Colts defence that has been up and down this season.

The Browns head back home after a loss at the Bills where the game really got away from them in the second half. It has been a difficult few weeks for Brian Hoyer who has been struggling along with the offence since Alex Mack went down injured. It was bad enough against the Bills that Johnny Manziel finally put in an appearance, but having led the offence up the field on an eighty yard drive that culminated in him scrambling for a touchdown, he also fumbled the ball to give up a score and ultimately he could not get the Browns back into the game. Their coach Mike Pettine has said that Manziel will be taking first team snaps as they look at getting him involved in the game.

I’m really not sure how this will affect the Browns, but it doesn’t inspire confidence and although I am worried about the points, I’m backing the Colts to have too much when they come to Cleveland.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Buccaneers @ Lions (-9.5)

The Lions had a much better game last week on offence, looking more like themselves and their run defence was so good the Bears barely tried any running plays. I’m not sure if this can last, but if they can maintain the production of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate from this game then they will be a handful for anyone.

There are definite signs of improvement from the Bucs, with Mike Evans seeming able to catch any ball that is thrown near him. That said, they were not good enough to snatch a winnable game away from the Bengals and the twelve men of the field call must be one of the most frustrating penalties of the season for this coaching staff.

Since their bye in week seven the Buccaneers have not been blown out, and their defence has been turning round. I think the Lions will win but I don’t like their offensive line and it appears I’m not learning my lesson about picking road underdogs.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Giants @ Titans (+0.5)

This game is a real mystery wrapped in an enigma with a fluctuating quantum state that changes upon observation.

On the one hand we have the Giants who are just falling apart after briefly putting together a promising run of performances earlier in the season, but are now on a seven game losing streak. On the other hand, the Titans have just lost heavily to the Texan, are on their own six game losing streak, and their rookie quarterback is now injured so we’re back to Jake Locker as the possible starter.

I don’t like either team so I’m plumping for the Titans at home but who knows with this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Rams @ Semi-Pros(+2.5)

Things did not get much better for the Semi-Pros this week with a slight improvement in offensive production undone by repeatedly blow coverage in the secondary. You will seldom see so many wide open receivers on long plays as there were in last week’s game and surely this must cast some questions over the coaching of this team.

The Rams are finishing the season strong, and whilst we shouldn’t over react to their fifty-two point win over the Raiders, their defence pitched a shut out and Tre Mason looked really good as he rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns on only fourteen carries.

I can only see one result in this one, which maybe dangerous but I’m sticking to my guns.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Ravens @ Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins won ugly against the Jets last week, but whilst the performance from Tannehill was not outstanding with no touchdowns and an interception, the worrying trend is the second straight bad performance from the defence that for most of the season has been a strength of the team. They are still ranked top ten in defence by DVOA, but having conceded twenty-two points in a quarter against the Broncos two weeks ago, they conceded 200 rushing yards in the first half against the Jets.

The Ravens are still a lot of people’s pick as the best team in the AFC North but they are now a game and a half behind the Bengals, and their patched together secondary is going to be their Achilles heel for the rest of the season. I would like their offence to be more consistent as it has shown flashes, with Justin Forsett has being one of the free-agent pickups of the season, but has not put it together as regularly as you would like.

I think the Ravens have a slight edge in this one and so I’m backing them to bounce back with a win.

Jets @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Vikings are playing solid defence and so I don’t expect the Jets to be able to run the ball like they did against the Dolphins. This is a problem as it has been the only impressive thing the Jets have done in weeks and they still lost. I think that the Viking could be a really interesting team next year, and this week I’m backing them for a solid home win.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Panthers @ Saints (-9.5)

This is a difficult game to pick as the Panthers are struggling this season with problems on both sides of the ball and Cam Newton looking particularly off. However, the Saints have also been pretty bad this season and this is a high line. The Saints were much better against the Steelers than the score showed as their defence was unable to stop them making it a close game towards the end, despite the Saints mostly being in control. Given this, it would make sense to pick the Panthers to cover, but I can’t bring myself to back this road underdog, I don’t have any confidence in their offence so I’m reluctantly hoping the Saints begin to look more like themselves.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Teaxns @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars got themselves a second win last week against the Giants and continue to compete on defence and keep themselves in game, but their horrid o-line makes it very hard from them to do much on offence.

The Texans played excellently last week with Ryan Fitzpatrick having a career day, and JJ Watt getting two sacks as well as forcing a fumble, recovering it, and then catching an touchdown pass on the resulting offensive play.

I think this is a relatively straight forward win for the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Bills @ Broncos (-9.5)

The Broncos found another way to win last week, running the ball with CJ Anderson for 168 yards off thirty-two carries. Their defence continues to play well, and whilst they have had their wobbles recently, the Broncos have to be included in any discussion of the best teams in the AFC.

The Bills have had a good couple of weeks, but whilst I am impressed with their defence which is anchored by one of the best defensive lines in the league, I do not trust their offense and I’m waiting for Kyle Orton to come back to Earth.

If this game was in Buffalo I might fancy the Bills for an upset, but at Mile High Stadium not only do I fancy the Broncos to win, but I think they’ll cover too.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Chiefs @ Cardinals (-0.5)

The Cardinals have been so good for most of the season, but it looks like they might have finally reached a point where they are too hobbled by injury to win. They have no run game to support Drew Stanton, who is currently no where near good enough to win them games, and even the defence was bad last week against the Falcons. I wouldn’t put it past Bruce Arians to find a way to get them into the playoffs, but right now I can see them slipping out.

The Chiefs are coming off their own two game losing streak, and have not been inspiring. However, I have more faith in Alex Smith than I do Stanton and even though they are the road team, I think that they have more ways of manufacturing points than the Cardinals at the moment.

This is a pick that could haunt me as I really believe in Arians as a coach, but Andy Reid is not exactly awful himself.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

49ers @ Raiders (+7.5)

One suspects that the Raiders minds were elsewhere in the lead up to last week’s game, resulting them getting smashed 52-0 by the Rams. They were horrible and there doesn’t seem to be much point in going over it in detail, but I would imagine they will be desperate to demonstrate that it was a one off by a team not used to success.

The 49ers are in trouble as their offence is horrible and Kaepernick seems to be going backwards. I think that they are going to miss the playoffs this year, and we will be seeing new coaches whose first order of business is an overhaul of the offensive scheme. I see them winning this game, but I have no confidence that they can generate enough offense to cover this spread on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Seahawks @ Eagles (-1.5)

This should be a really good game with the Seahawks defence playing really well over the last couple of weeks having got some players back from injury. However, whilst I think that they could overturn the Cardinals at the top of the NFC West, I think this game will be beyond them.

This is not an easy journey for them, and the Eagles are playing well. I worry about Sanchez facing the Seahawks defence, but he has played in big games before and never with this level of surrounding cast or within such a well coached scheme. I think the Eagles defence has enough to contain the run game of the Seahawks, who really don’t have much of a passing attack and so I see the Eagles eking out a win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Patriots @ Chargers (+3.5)

The Chargers got themselves back into the playoff hunt with a win over the Ravens last week, but I don’t know how sustainable this success is. It appeared that Philip Rivers was feeling a bit healthier and certainly he played well, but given that their defence is ranked twenty-eighth by DVOA he is going to have to be outstanding again.

This defensive problems look to be further compounded as the Patriots are coming into town and if you are twenty-first in the league by DVOA against tight ends, the last player you want to see is Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots were in the game with the Packers until the end, but there were a couple of throws that Brady would like to have back. It is interesting that Bill Belichick flew the team straight from Green Bay to Sand Diego, but I think they have more than enough to take care of business in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Falcons @ Packers (-11.5)

It has now been more than two years since Aaron Rodgers has thrown an interception at Lambaugh Field and if he keeps up this level of play for a few more years there is going to be a real argument about who the best quarterback of all time is. Add to this a defence that had been playing really well recently, with Julius Peppers demonstrating he was a really good offseason pickup and Clay Mathews making a difference as he moves between inside linebacker and pass rusher, and you have a recipe for Super Bowl contention.

The Falcons did really well to beat the Cardinals last week, their patched up offensive line held up well enough for Matt Ryan to give Julio Jones a career day. However, I really worry about how their defence is going to hold up against the Rodgers and all the weapons he has at his disposal. I think this is going to be a very long day for a team that really isn’t very good, and is about to get found out.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers