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The End of the Regular Season, Aaron Donald on Coaching Tape, and Week 17 Picks

03 Sunday Jan 2016

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It is one of those tricks of time that the last games of the regular season are being played today, and it has been a long season, yet it doesn’t feel like five minutes since the season started. One of the good things about being a fan of American football is that you go into the cold gloom of January with excitement for playoffs, although as a Bengals fan there is usually a fair amount of trepidation.

The end of season head coach firings have already begun, with Chip Kelly being let go from the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this week. It feels like an odd time to do it, and I am not sure I buy the reasons stated by the team as no one from other NFL teams are going to be contacting him this week. It also seems strange to me that you would hand over control of your roster to someone, and then fire them after a solitary season, but then again I am not in the building so it could be seen as making a strong decision to stop something that has gone wrong as quickly as possible. Only time will tell, but there will need to be some consistent effort in Philadelphia to establish if there is a long term plan in place. I will be curious to see what route the Eagles take next as well as if Chip Kelly gets another chance. Kelly has already stated that he doesn’t want control over personnel in the future, but with all the new training ideas he was trying it was exciting to have him in the league, even if I am not sure if his up tempo offence, with the results it also has for his defence, can lead to sustained success in the NFL.

It is kind of frightening that the offseason will start on Monday, with the annual coach firings, and all that means for the staff involved. It is very easy to forget in amongst all the news stories, that their will be numerous families moving cities, and various coaches nervously waiting to see if they are staying or will be looking for an opportunity elsewhere. It will also see the usual jockeying for coaches, and trying to hire from the teams in the playoffs. In addition to all the usual coaching and player moves, we have three franchises that could be moving to LA. This is always a strange topic UK fans as it is incredibly rare for a team to move location over here, where as it is not uncommon for NFL franchises to change cities, and two of the teams in flux have played in Los Angeles before. The NFL has become a year round news generator, with perhaps the only true time off for those working for the teams being between OTAs and the start of training camp, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves; there is still a week of football left followed by the playoffs.

I decided to treat myself this week with the coaching tape given that it won’t make sense to look at something from a team not going to the playoffs next week so I took a look at the performance of the St Louis Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

The Rams were playing the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle, and not only did they win this game, but they managed to sack quarterback Russell Wilson six times and hit him a further thirteen. Now Aaron Donald may have only hit Wilson twice in this game and failed to add to his tally of eleven sacks that has him inside the top ten for sacks in the league, but he still had a big effect in this game.

The first thing that became obvious to me was Donald generating a consistent pressure up the middle, sometimes slipping between offensive linemen, working round as part of a stunt, or simply beating his man. The Seattle line struggled to block him with only one player, and frequently used two players to control Donald. In fact, there was one snap in the fourth quarter where despite the Rams rushing only four players, three Seahawk offensive linemen blocked Donald. What I was not expecting to see was Donald drop into shallow zones as part of a zone blitz, but he did this five times in this game and the Rams were not punished when this happened.

Although his stats were not gaudy, Donald did get pressure, only missing out on getting a sack by small margins on several snaps, and he was also disruptive in the running game. He demonstrated the ability to shed blocks to make tackles, but as well as making tackles or getting pressure by getting past or shedding his blocker, he interrupted several plays simply by driving his blocker back. He effectively stopped the run several times with this simple drive, and on one play I am still not sure how Russell Wilson completed a pass given that Donald drove the Seahawk’s right tackle back into Wilson as he threw the ball. Even when double teamed he was sometimes able to affect the play as his push was directed towards the running back, clogging up the running lane. He also created a penalty when JR Sweezy held Donald as he went passed and took him to the ground.

I don’t think Aaron Donald struck me as having quite the same explosive first step as Geno Atkins who I watch week in week out, but in his second year in the league Donald has established himself as one of the top defensive players in the league. He constantly has to be accounted for and creates room for the players around him to work as well as directly contributing against both the run and pass. I am looking forward to seeing how the Rams play next season, and if the strong finish they have put together can finally lead to them competing in the division as so often has been suggested in recent years.

It is going to be an odd week to pick games given there are a lot of teams with little to play for, or teams resting players ahead of the playoffs, but for the final time in this season’s competition, here are Dan and mine’s picks. Let’s hope they are better than last week…

Gee:     Week 16   6-10                        Overall   125-115

Dan:    Week 16   6-10                        Overall   116-124

Saints @ Falcons (-4.5)

The Saints surprised me last week, but the Falcons seem to be finishing the season strongly and will be looking to build for next season, whilst things look to be difficult again for the Saints next year.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Jets @ Bills (+2.5)

The Bills are talking about this game being their Super Bowl, but the plain fact for me is that one team just beat the Patriots and need this game to get to the playoffs, and the other gives away too many penalties and are inconsistent. I’m backing what I think is the better team in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Lions @ Bears (-1.5)

The Bears have done well this season, and look to be building something going forward although I am sure the fans in Chicago will be hoping to hold onto offensive coordinator Adam Gase given the job he has done with Jay Cutler this year. However, whilst the Lions may have the same record as the Bears this season, they are 5-2 since their bye week and new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter seems to have found a formula to get the Detroit offence running. I think the Lions finish the season strongly as I trust them more than the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Ravens @ Bengals (-7.5)

The Bengals are heading into the playoffs with a lot of questions, but AJ McCarron did okay in the first half against the Broncos, and I think they will have enough to deal with the Ravens in Cincinnati. However, I am looking forward to seeing what Ryan Mallet does this week, but I don’t think the Ravens have enough to win this one and with the Bengals needing to win to push the Broncos for the second seed, I’m hoping they cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns are limping to the end of the season, and somehow Johnny Manziel entered the concussion protocol on Wednesday so it feels like they season is ending the way it has gone since week one. The Steelers need this win to try to get into the playoffs and I think they will cover this with their high powered offence being too much for the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Washington @ Cowboys (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game as the talk seems to be that with nothing to play for, that Washington will be resting players, but almost on principle I refuse to back the Cowboys, even in Dallas.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Titans @ Colts (-6.5)

This is a horrible game to pick, as the Titans have lost a lot of games, whilst we don’t actually know who will be playing quarterback for the Colts as their season falls apart. They need ten results to go their way for the Colts to make the playoffs, and I’m not sure that the one they have under their own control will go their way, yet alone that they will win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Patriots @ Dolphins (+9.5)

The Patriots have had so many injuries this season, and yet still I think they will win this game against a Dolphins team that have been simply bad this year. However, the Patriots will be looking to keep their key players healthy so I don’t see them winning by ten points.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

Often when a team does lose a head coach during  the season, it can produce an immediate reaction, but given how the Eagles have been playing, plus a Giants team at home with a point to prove I can’t look past the Giants in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Jagaurs @ Texans (-6.5)

The Houston Texans may be coming into form at the right moment, but I’m not so sure that their offence is that good. Whilst the Jaguars have consistently been unpredictable, they have a great core on offence and I’m not so sure that the Texans are going to win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chargers @ Broncos (-8.5)

The Broncos defence looked like best unit in the game in the second half of their win against the Bengals, and this week welcome a Chargers team that are headed into an offseason of change. I think that the Broncos will win, but I am not sure they are going to win by nine points given the way their offence is playing.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Raiders @ Chiefs (-6.5)

The Chiefs are on such a run of form, with a defence that is as scary as anybody’s in the league. The Raiders have some good young players, but Derek Carr has faded a bit down the stretch and I think this is a game where the Chiefs will run out comfortable winners.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Rams @ 49ers (+3.5)

The Rams have now won three in a row since firing their offensive coordinator, and are on something of a run, where as the 49ers will be looking forward to the offseason and getting this year behind them.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are such an aggressive team, and if this was truly competitive game then I might think about them covering this game, but at the end of the year with nothing really on the line in a divisional game I’m not sure I can seem them winning by seven against a Seahawks team who will be looking to right the ship after a bad loss last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-10.5)

The Panthers might be better off not having the pressure of an unbeaten season hanging over them, but I’m not sure how they will play in this one so I can’t bring myself to back them by eleven points even if the Buccaneers are not finishing this season strongly.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Vikings @ Packers (-3.5)

Right now I think the Vikings are the better team, with a tough defence and an offence who know who they are and how to get the job done. I don’t expect the same performance from the Packers back in Green Bay as they had last week, but with injury worries on their o-line as well as the problems they’ve had all year on offence, I don’t expect it to be that much better.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

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Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2015

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It was a slightly odd Thursday night game given that if you were to look at the statistics on their own without the score, you would think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually won the game, but in the end the Rams ran out convincing winners in what could be their last game in St Louis.

The Rams have now won two games straight and part of that turn around seems to be the change in offensive coordinator. Whilst the Buccaneers did an effective job of bottling up Todd Gurley, the Rams came with game plan that made the most of Tavon Austin’s ability with the ball in his hands, and an efficient passing game that gained two hundred and thirty-four yards from fourteen receptions out of seventeen attempts. I am not going to say that Case Keenum is an amazing quarterback, but this did look like a functional NFL offence, which it has not done for a lot of the season, and I will be as curious to see what this team does in the offseason with the construction of the roster as where the franchise will actually play its games.

The Buccaneers defence played well in the run game in terms of restricting Todd Gurley, which is not a surprise given that they were ranked fifth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game. However, they were not that sure in their tackling, and had problems dealing with the shifty Austin. No one really stood out, although Gerard McCoy flashed, but he has not hit the lofty heights that we have come to expect given his performance in previous seasons. They have however, begun to look like they can make Lovie Smith’s Tampa Two defence effective, which seemed to be a real question earlier this season and they will be hoping to build on that next year.

The Buccaneers offence in contrast, had some good performances, but the yardage gained hides the fact that they got very little going in the first half, gave the ball away twice and could have lost the ball again if they had not recovered one of their fumbles. It was odd in that to start the game they tried to rely on their run game as they have much for the season, but whilst Doug Martin ran the ball effectively, Jameis Winston kept missing his receivers with throws that were too high. In fact Winston had this problem crop up through much of the game, but it was particularly prevalent in the early part of the game and led to difficulties maintaining drives. In the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter the Buccaneers were able to get things going, and Winston was able to make some big plays with his arm, particularly to receiver Mike Evans who had an impressing one hundred and fifty-seven yard game from nine receptions, although he was targeted seventeen times. The one interception Winston did have was a bad read as he failed to take account of a dropping corner, but he has been much better in his first season than many feared and if they can get him some more options and improve his offensive line then the Buccaneers definitely have a quarterback for the foreseeable future.

There is no doubting the talent on the Rams defence, but it has rarely been able to get everyone playing well at the same time. The particularly impressive player for them in this game was Aaron Donald, who may not have had any sacks, but did get two tackles for a loss as well as three quarterback hits whilst causing all kinds of problems for the Buccaneers offensive line. It should not be possible for a defensive tackle as large as Donald to move as quickly as he does, but he also possesses the strength to shed blockers to make tackles in the run game, and in his second year is making a case to be included in the conversation with the other defensive greats.

In the end the Rams ran out comfortable winners in this one, but I am not sure it will be enough to save Jeff Fisher his job, whilst the improvement the Buccaneers have made this season should mean that Lovie Smith gets another year to continue the rebuilding job in Tamp Bay

I want to write a little about the coaching tape I watched this week before moving onto our picks for week fifteen. I was looking at the way that Cardinals use safeties Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu, which is pretty much how I outlined last week, but it is still impressive to see on tape.

For Bucannon, although listed as a safety he really does play as one of their linebackers, using his movement skills to avoid blocks and make plays. Not only did he force a fumble and recover it, but he was able to tackle Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and was second in tackles only to Tyrann Mathieu.

If Bucannon is exceptional because of the position he is playing given his size, then Tyrann Mathieu demonstrates an amazing flexibility in the way he is used around the Cardinals defence. He basically lines up as either a safety or slot corner, and is usually around the line of scrimmage, but from there he can exploit his athleticism either rushing towards the play, or drop into coverage. In the Cardinals blitz heavy scheme he frequently rushes from the slot corner position or from the line, and was able to get pressure on the QB multiple times. The pass play I mentioned in last week’s write up where Mathieu batted down a ball behind the line of scrimmage was actually coming off such a slot corner blitz, and given that Teddy Bridgewater was looking left as the ball was snapped, I would guess hat Mathieu either keyed off that or adjusted his blitz angle in case the ball came out early, and it was this that allowed him get a hand to the ball.

Overall what I appreciated about the Cardinals defensive scheme was that they have collected a number of good athletes and are putting them in a position to make the most of their physical gifts whilst giving themselves flexibility in an era where offences are becoming increasingly multiple and aggressive in the pass game. I don’t know if there are going to be other teams that copy them, but the principle of having that much coverage ability combined with aggressive pressure is one we may well see copied, if perhaps with different types of personnel.

Finally we go on to the rest of our week fifteen picks, with Dan and I both going 1-1 so far.

Falcons @ Jagaurs (-3.5)

The points scare me because despite the improvement of the Jaguars this season, they are still not reliable week to week, but they are coming off a win where they scored fifty points whilst the Falcons are on a horrendous run of losses. I don’t see the Falcons ending that run on the road in Jacksonville this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Bills @ Washington (+0.5)

It feels like I have been wrong about this Washington season all year, but with the Bills falling from playoff contention thanks to last week’s loss and their continued ill discipline which seems to be a feature of Rex Ryan’s teams, I think that Washington will win this game as they try to stay in the NFC East race. The worry is that Washington has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but they have been better at home and with something to play for I will take the half point that doesn’t really mean anything.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Chicago Bears have been better than most thought they would be this season, but the Vikings put up a very credible performance against a very good Cardinals team in Arizona and will hopefully be healthier after the extra rest. Their defence has been good all year and was solid last week despite missing some of its best players, and they will want to get their season back on track in this divisional game and I think they will. They might not cover the points, but I think the Vikings are the better team so that’s the way I am going.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Titans @ Patriots (-14.5)

The points make me pause, but the Titans are on the road and do not have the players around rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota to compete with the Patriots given the return of Rob Gronkowski and what he means to their offence. The Titans only scored one touchdown against the Jets last week, and that was a trick play, so I don’t see them doing much in their second game on the road in a row, so whilst I should pick the Titans because of the points, I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The AFC South is in such a state that two teams with 6-7 records are playing for the division lead, with both of them starting backup quarterbacks. There is very little to hang your hat on in this game, but the Texans at least have JJ Watt and a defence that has been coming on in the second half of the season even if they did struggle against the Patriots last week, so that’s what I will put my trust in for this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chiefs @ Ravens (+7.5)

The Chiefs are on one of the hottest streaks in the NFL at the moment, which is a testament to the job head coach Andy Reid did in keeping this team together through their 1-5 start that easily could have wrecked their season. The Ravens have been specialising in close games for much of the season, even if they had been losing most of them, but the injuries finally passed a point where they could compete and lost badly last week. I think that the Chiefs offence will be better this week for not playing in horrendous conditions, and will cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Panthers @ Giants (+5.5)

This game has one of the matchups of the year with Panther’s corner Josh Norman likely going up against Odell Beckham. There is a lot of buzz about how the Giants love playing these kinds of games and upsetting good teams, but this Giants team is not like the one that beat the Patriots in two Super Bowls. Those teams may have come good at the end of the year, but they also had a fearsome pass rush and more to hang their hat on than Eli Manning getting hot. Yes the Manning to Beckham connection is effective, but this week they go up against one of the best defences in the league, and whilst the injuries the Panthers suffered last week worry me, I don’t see the Giants really being able to compete. This probably means the Giants will win as it’s hard to predict that the Panthers really will go undefeated, but I’m not prepared to pick against them this week despite needing them to win by six points on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Browns @ Seahawks (-14.5)

I feel like I am picking a lot of sides giving away a lot of points this week, and they surely can’t all come in, but despite the Browns getting a win last week, I don’t see them repeating the trick as they travel from Cleveland to Seattle. The Seahawks defence is still very good, and with their offence now finding an effective passing game I’m not even worried about the loss of rookie running back Thomas Rawls in this one. I’m backing the Seahawks to run out convincing winners at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Raiders (+3.5)

I think I am changing my mind on this one in that on the podcast I said I was not convinced by the Packers, having had false dawns before this season in terms of things turning consistently round on offence, and the Raiders have played well for large parts of the season even if they do make young team mistakes. However, with Mike McCarthy taking back play calling duties last week, and a faith that they will not allow Khalil Mack to get five sacks like the Broncos did last week, I think the Packers may well cover this one even if the half point does make me nervous.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ 49ers (+4.5)

The 49ers defence seems to play better at home that than they do on the road, but they just lost to the Cleveland Brown and their rush defence is near the bottom of the league. I know what Hue Jackson is saying about the game plan this week, and to some extent I believe him as I didn’t think it was a bad display by AJ McCarron against the Steelers last week, but a young quarterback’s best friend is the run game, which fits the tactical situation of this game and so I think the Bengals will run on the 49ers a lot. It may well be a close game, but I am choosing to take a page out of Dan’s giant book of optimism and back my team to cover this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

This line is tricky for me in that whilst the Broncos offence stuttered last week, they still have a really good defence. The Steelers have a great set of receivers, and this should be a really good game, but the Broncos could well slow the Steelers down. I think they can for a while, but this Steelers team are just so good at the moment, and whilst I think I would pick differently if this game was in Denver, I am backing the Steelers in Pittsburgh to win and maintain the pressure on the Bengals because that’s what happens in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dolphins @ Chargers (-1.5)

There have been comments coming out of the Chargers locker room that they are aware this could be the team’s last game in San Diego and they are desperate for a win. I think the Dolphins might be close to being a good team than some would have you believe, but they have not been good this season. However, I am not sure the Chargers should be favourites against many given how their season has been, and there has been very little home field advantage for them this season so I will join Dan back on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Cardinals @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Cardinals continue to get wins with a good defence and explosive offence, whilst the Eagles have been uneven all season and I simply don’t trust them. So even thought the Cardinals are on the road in Philadelphia, I am backing them to cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Lions @ Saints (-2.5)

The Lions lost for a second week in the row, and it seems that being eliminated from the playoffs has stifled their little recovery. They are still playing better than they were, but then again so are the Saints. Their defence was not as bad last week as it has been all season, and they ran out convincing winners against the Buccaneers. This leaves me in something of a quandary, particularly as the Buccaneers were pretty convincingly beaten by the Rams on Thursday, but I am going for the team with the better record who are playing at home whilst keeping my fingers crossed.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

NFL Week 15: Cardinals @ Rams Recap

14 Sunday Dec 2014

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This was a strange game that never quite took off, although it remained a tight contest right to the end. The problem was that whilst I love defence and both teams posses really good ones, neither of them had good enough offences to provide a consistent challenge to the opposition.

Both defences were ranked in the top ten by DVOA coming into this week, but they got there in very different ways. The Rams are built on a pretty terrifying front seven and a defensive line that can get consistent pressure with a standard pass rush. The Cardinals however, are built from the secondary forwards, and rely on their corners to stand up in coverage whilst they consistently bring extra people to rush the passer. In fact I have never seen a cornerback blitz as frequently as Jerraud Powers did in this game, and at the end of the game I saw him rush three straight times, on the final one sealing the game when he batted down a pass. It is also worth mentioning that Greg Cosell said in his spot on the Ross Tucker Football podcast this week that he thinks that the Rams safety pairing of T.J. McDonald and Rodney McLeod are as good as any pair in the league, and as he gets to watch the coaching tape and I didn’t this week, I have no reason to disbelieve him.

Neither of these teams have the starting quarterback they expected for the season, with the Rams losing Sam Bradford in preseason and the Cardinals’ Carson Palmer going down in week ten in their previous meeting with the Rams. I have written about what a good job Bruce Arians has done coaching the Cardinals this season, and this was the case again in this game when the Cardinals lost Drew Stanton with a sprained knee after taking a sack from Aaron Donald with Eugene Sims and Alec Ogletree also in on the play. This is not the first time that Arians has been down to his third string quarterback, yet his team won the game and stand atop of the murderous NFC West with an 11-3 record.

There were no touchdowns scored in this game as neither team could get through the oppositions red-zone defence or get a long play for a touchdown. There was consistent pressure but only three sacks total in the game, and they generated virtually identical amounts of yards in offence. However, whilst both teams had the occasional good looking pass amongst the bad ones, with the Rams having the better results of the two, the Cardinals protected the ball better as they did not turn the ball over whilst the Rams gave up an interception and one of their two fumbles. The Cardinals were also able to run the football more effectively, generating 143 of their 274 yards from thirty-three attempts and controlling the clock with a nine minute advantage in time of possession.

It was in these small advantages that the Cardinals were able to eek out the win. The long punt return that Ted Ginn broke early in the third quarter was not capitalised upon in the ensuing drive, in fact the Cardinal went three and out, but after forcing the Rams to punt on the next drive they were able to win the field position battle and kick a field goal. It was this consistent play if anything that won them the game, after being held scoreless in the first quarter, they continued to get points in each quarter whilst the Rams could only bookend the game with field goals in the first and fourth quarters.

There were some excellent catches made in this game from both teams, but the real highlight of the game other was a career milestone when Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest receiver ever to catch nine hundred passes in the NFL. This should have occurred on a proper highlight play as Stanton dropped a lovely ball through bracket coverage to Fitzgerald for twenty-seven yards with a seven man rush coming, but unfortunately he only had time to do this as centre Lyle Sendlein held defensive tackle Kendall Langford as he burst through between Sendlein and right guard Ted Larsen.

This is another season for the Rams where they are finishing strongly and demonstrating that if they can just get a quarterback, they would be a real team to watch, but they have to find the answer at quarterback and they haven’t done so yet. The Cardinals look to be heading to the playoffs, although whether then can make a splash given their injury status is anybody’s guess, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against it given how consistently they have proved me wrong when I have doubted them.