Monthly Archives: October 2018

A Strange Week

31 Wednesday Oct 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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It has been a strange week here in Leicester. Dan has already captured it from the vantage of Leicester City season ticket holder who can explain it much better than I can so the first thing I’m going to do is point you to his post here.

For those of you who want to stick to the NFL I shall try to resume normal service.

The games of week eight saw the Rams continue their unbeaten start to the season with little a help from Ty Montgomery who has been traded from the Packers but I’ll get to the trades shortly as the deadline passed yesterday. It was a week where the cream of the league continue to rise. Going back to my league tiers I would say that the LA Rams and Kansas City Chiefs have been joined by the New Orleans Saints who have been a little lucky with a couple of wins (you can’t predict Justin Tucker missing his first ever extra point at any level) but have only one loss. The New England Patriots have also turned a corner and are now 6-2 and top of their division.

The Cincinnati Bengals remain competitive but have slipped to second in their division thanks to a three game losing streak and barely managed to beat the Tampa Bay Bucaneers who staged a remarkable fourth quarter comeback off the back of Ryan Fitzpatrick coming into the game. The Bengals defence is now ranked twenty-fifth in the league and there are real problems in the secondary so losing edge rusher Carl Lawson to a torn ACL really hurts, although at least the Bengals have some depth at pass rusher. Still it feels like they are slipping back, as are the Baltimore Ravens who fell back to 4-4 despite being more balanced this season so suddenly the Pittsburgh Steelers are top of the division. The Carolina Panthers are almost quietly grinding out wins as are the LA Chargers who both have joined the Bengals with five wins but I fancy both teams are in better situations than mine. The Houston Texans have now won five straight and have a two game lead on the Tennessee Titans who have been competitive but struggled and the Jacksonville Jaguars who seem to be imploding. Finally, they may be doing it with strength in the lines and running the ball, which you wouldn’t think would work these days but Washington have five wins and what looks to be a favourable schedule going forward. I’m not sure if I trust them, but they stand atop of the NFC East.

The NFC North is currently split between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears show promise but it is hard to trust Mitch Trubisky and no defence is good enough with the current rules to really dominated as they could in the past. The Vikings are putting up points with Kirk Cousins but the defence has regressed, although there is no shame in losing to the Saints at the moment. The Seattle Seahawks have also now picked up four wins with an improvement on the offensive line and the second ranked defence by DVOA. The Philadelphia Eagles are struggling, but got the win in London and I like the trade for Golden Tate in terms of trying to help this team win now by giving Carson Wentz a proven receiving options. Meanwhile the Miami Dolphins have regressed back to 4-4 as injuries look to have hampered them and whilst Adam Gase can manufacture some offence, you are always going to struggle with Brock Osweiler starting multiple games and I’m just not sure what the long term plan is in Miami.

Lurking with three wins the Green Bay Packers looked good on Sunday, and you wouldn’t have bet against Aaron Rodgers getting the win against the Rams if he’d got on the field with two minutes left but for the aforementioned Ty Montgomery fumble on a kick-off return that put pay to that. I still don’t know what to expect out of the Detroit Lions who run the ball well finally, and do not much else well. They do have a couple of big wins but every time I think they’re turning the corner they lose.

The Indianapolis Colts do seem to be turning a corner despite only having three wins with Andrew Luck looking more like himself. The defence also seems to have improved with rookie linebacker Darius Leonard catching my eye wen I looked at the coaching tape of him last week

However, it’s these next teams where we get into the run of the mill bad teams. The Denver Broncos have some good early wins but the defence just isn’t the same and Case Keenum has not been the answer they hoped for at quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could well have improved on defence since firing Mike Smith as their defensive coordinator and at least made the last couple of games competitive. But, when Ryan Fitzpatrick is outplaying your franchise quarterback you have a serious issues on offence and it could well mean a complete reset of the franchise in the off-season. The Atlanta Falcons have been so riven by injury that they fall into this tier despite Matt Ryan ranking fifth by Football Outsiders’ DYAR stat, which represents a quarterback’s total value. The Dallas Cowboys have just traded a first round pick for Amari Cooper but it seems like this is a desperate move and despite improvements on defence this team have struggled and who knows what could happen, but I’m not expecting a big turnaround this season although they are only two games back on Washington despite only having three wins.

The final tier gives us the truly awful. The Buffalo Bills at least play hard on defence, even ranking fourth by DVOA but their offence has struggled all year and with Josh Allen’s injury are not even losing productively as Derek Anderson is helping no one develop. This is not quite the same for the Arizona Cardinals who have been equally awful on offence but at least Josh Rosen is showing some moments, I just feel sorry for Larry Fitzgerald who frankly deserves better at the end of a tremendous career. The Cleveland Browns were the first team to fire their head coach, finally letting Hue Jackson go and firing Todd Haley as offensive coordinator as well. The Browns don’t have any history of doing things right in this iteration of the franchise and so it is hard to see things really working out for them in the long term as they need to persuade a really good coach to take over. I just don’t know who that would be given the owner’s history. The San Francisco 49ers at least have an excuse with losing Jerick McKinnon and Jimmy Garoppolo early in the season, but it has to be worrying that more of their young players are not playing better. There could be concerns over the direction the franchise is heading in now the excitement of the takeover by Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch is beginning to fade. The other one win team who at least have some talent are the New York Giants who bet on being able to turn around Eli Manning and were just wrong. They seem to have realised this as they have been trading away players from the defence but this is a lost season and they need to find a new quarterback for next season and shoring up the offensive line would be good idea too.

Finally, and in a world of their own are the Oakland Raiders who have shown flashes of competitiveness, but having traded away both Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, and are clearly tearing things down in Jon Gruden’s first season. It’s one thing to amass all these picks, but they’ll need to hit if they are to make a success of their move to Las Vegas and as the Cleveland Browns showed, you can have all the picks and even amass the talent but without good coaching it won’t win games. I don’t know where this is going as I can’t see into the future, but it doesn’t feel well managed so far, although the Cooper trade at least looks like a good deal.

So there we go, all the teams rushed through and you will have notice a lot more trade talk as this has definitely increased in recent years. The Eagles demonstrated last year what you could do to build a roster with the right trades and have tried it again. The Rams and Saints are both clearly in win now mode with them both making moves before the deadline despite having quarterbacks at very different stages of their career. The Packers traded away several players for picks that might help in the long run but makes things more difficult for Aaron Rodgers, and whilst I wouldn’t bet against him still dragging this team to the playoffs, the trades didn’t exactly help. I think this is a new world that we will get used to and I will be curious to see how much effect the new players will have on the teams they have joined. It’s hard not to be a fan of teams trying more things to win though.

Whatever your sport… it’s a bit irrelevant really isn’t it?

30 Tuesday Oct 2018

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This is going to be a tough one, and I’m going to go off topic. Stick with me guys…

The football started early for me this week, with the Dolphins taking part in Thursday Night football in a fairly convincing win for the Texans. Brocktober is well and truly over, and his performance against the Bears a few weeks back feels like a hell of a long way away now! Hardly surprising when you look at how broken the Dolphins Offence is, and how powerful the Texans Defence can be. It’s never fun coming up against JJ Watt, but that’s especially true when you’re as banged up as Miami. And just like that, we’re at 4-4. Middle of the road. Standard Dolphins.

And that’s about all of the football I managed to watch this weekend, mainly because of something which happened on Saturday night which made it just all feel so… irrelevant.

If you’ve been following the Blog and Pod for some time, you’ll know that outside of the NFL, I’m a huge Leicester City fan (and you probably now know what way this post is going to go!). I’ve been a season ticket holder for the last 10 years and have seen some incredible highs, but Saturday night was one of the lowest and worst experience of my life as a football fan.

You won’t have escaped the news of the death of our owner and Chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, along with the two pilots and two other passengers.

Saturday started off OK – I went down to the King Power stadium and watched Leicester draw with West Ham. Not fantastic, but it’ll do. But then about half an hour after I got home from the game, I started hearing reports of an accident down at the ground. An accident which involved the Owner of our club’s Helicopter. And apparently, it was on fire outside the stadium after having lost control after takeoff, going into a spin and hitting the ground.

At first you think “well, that’s got to be over exaggerated” and you assume everyone managed to get out. But then we saw the footage, and it was truly heartbreaking. The helicopter had been a regular feature in and around the ground (I live very close so used to see it flying around fairly often) and it was well known that the owner and other dignitaries used it as a taxi after every game to take them back to London. The collective hearts of all Leicester City fans stopped at the sight of it on the news, as we had a good idea who would be on board.

As news started filtering through, it became clear that Vichai would be among the deceased, and I’ve been pretty distracted and emotional ever since. I took a walk down to the stadium on Sunday afternoon to pay my respects and was met with hundreds of fellow fans and an incredibly somber mood. But what struck me wasn’t just the sense of feeling around the place, but the vast spread of people who were there paying respect – not just Leicester City fans, but fans of Nottingham Forest, Derby, Leeds, Liverpool… it was clear that the whole of football had been shaken by this tragedy. And in fact, not even just fans of football – people who had no interest in football but had been touched by his incredible generosity outside of the game were there too.

That shouldn’t have surprised me when I think back to it. Vichai was one of the most incredibly generous people to have passed through Leicester. He and his family donated literally millions to Leicester’s hospitals (in particular through their Children’s charity), Universities and the city itself. During his time at the football club, he wrote off over £100million in debts as a personal gift to the club. He bought our stadium so we we are no longer paying rent to a developer. He spent millions and millions on the squad, signed off on a huge new training facility, and the fans and people of Leicester loved him for it.

Let’s not forget that it was under his stewardship that we did the unthinkable, overcoming all odds to win the Premier League. For those of you who aren’t football fans, that’s like the Jets winning the super bowl! (Sorry Ryan, I had to lighten this up somehow!).

And it wasn’t just the big things – he was also responsible for buying every fan a beer on his birthday, Mince pies at Christmas, Bacon Sandwiches for breakfast and Scarves for people making long trips to Away games, and he even arranged for a bottle of Whiskey and glasses to be left in the Memorial Garden at the King Power stadium on match days for people to have a toast to their lost friends and family (something that I’d seen many times and always wondered who left it there).

It’s truly incredible when you think about it. How many other clubs owners have given so much to the fans and local community, and made such a connection? I don’t know how we got so lucky! I’m not sure Mike Ashley has given the Newcastle fans as much as a bad cold!

He and his son Aiyawatt (known to us fans as ‘Top’) were also amazingly ambitious. When they signed Kasper Schmeichel in 2011, they told him they wanted to be in the Champions League within 6 years, at a time when we were struggling to break out of the Championship’s mid table. When we first went up into the Premier League, they said to the press that they’d be in the Champions League within 3 years, and despite how ludicrous it sounded at the time, look what happened!

As you can hopefully see, I feel quite indebted to this man, and I’ve been gutted since Sunday evening when his passing was officially announced. But for the club, life will go on. Hopefully, when he feels ready, we’ll see Top take over as chairman and keep his father’s legacy alive. It’s a legacy that all of us as fans want to make sure is fulfilled and we owe it to him to do anything we can to make sure it does. There’s talk of a statue, or of the stadium being renamed, but whatever happens, Vichai and his contribution to our club and our city will live on forever.

Thank you, Khun Vichai. Rest in peace.

Until next time (when I promise I’ll be more cheerful, or your money back!)

2018 Week Eight Picks

28 Sunday Oct 2018

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Okay, so week eight didn’t exactly start with the turnaround I was looking for but thanks to family weekend things suddenly I’m facing a time crunch so let’s see if skipping quickly through the games gives me better luck, but before that there’s the minor matter of our now tied trivia competition.

‘Who is the Head Coach with Most Career Wins?’

Now there’s a couple of thoughts I had about this. I don’t think the answer is anyone currently coaching or I’d know about it (I also think the commentators would be mentioning it most weeks) so then you start getting into the big historical coaches but this is as much about length of service as quality so say Curly Lambeau rather than Vince Lombardi and the more I think about the more I’m sure that Dan has an advantage here because I think it is someone who coached the Dolphins for a long long time. I’m going for Don Shula who racked up something like, say three hundred and twenty wins.

‘This is the first time I’ve felt really confident about the answer of a trivia question this year! The ‘Winningest’ head coach is the legendary Mr. Don Shula. I think his final win total was somewhere around 350 games, so I’ll go with 350!’

Eagles @ Jaguars (+2.5)

So this week’s London game pits two teams coming off a loss against each other, and this has me worried because Blake Bortles has played very well in London in recent years, which is something he has not done in a while. However, there is something just not right with the Jaguars at the moment so London is a chance to get back to winning or implode against the Super Bowl champions. I really hate this line but in the end I just can’t trust the team who’ve lost four of the last five games.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Jets @ Bears (-6.5)

I don’t entirely trust the DVOA ranking of the Bears as they seem somewhat high but I do think they are much better than the Jets and whilst the Jets might have the better quarterback over the next couple of years, with the offensive scheme of the Bears I’m backing the more talented roster to win out.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Buccaneers @ Bengals (-4.5)

Gah, I do not like this line and I can totally see this going wrong but this is too important a game for the Bengals, and at home I have to try to trust them. The emotional hedges have not exactly cushioned the blow of the recent losses so with all the talk of a reaction and tackling I’m hoping the Bengals turn it round this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Steelers (-8.5)

The Browns have played so many overtime games this year and have only got blown out once, but that was against the Chargers and the Steelers certainly have the offensive fire power to do the same and are coming off a bye. I’m tempted by the Steelers but this feels like too many points to me.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10.5)

Going into Arrowhead Stadium is difficult at the best of times, but with the way the Chiefs are playing at the moment it is downright terrifying. The Broncos may be coming off a hugely convincing road win but it was over the Cardinals and this is a very different task. The points are kind of worrying but I fancy the Chiefs to steam roller almost any team at home the way they are playing at the moment.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Lions (-2.5)

The Lions seem to have found a formula on offense through running the ball and have settled down under Matt Patricia after a rocky start but they welcome a Seahawks team who have also rounded into some form. Having won convincingly in London two weeks ago the Seahawks face a sterner test on the road and I just fancy the Lions offence to win out in this and will be a sterner test than the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Washington @ Giants (+0.5)

The Giants have started trading players away from their twenty-eighth ranked defence whilst the offence continues to misfire. I’m never sure what to expect out of Washington but I think they are the better team and whilst strange things can happen in divisional matchups, I’m not going to pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Ravens @ Panthers (+1.5)

This should be a cracking game. The Panthers were behind for nearly all of their game against the Eagles last week but Cam Newton found a way to lead three straight scoring drives in the fourth quarter turn a terrible start into a win. They welcome a Ravens team who have been really competitive this season but have still lost three games, although it took Just Tucker’s first ever missed extra point at any level for the Saints to get a win. However, getting points at home I’m going to take the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Colts @ Raiders (+2.5)

In the cold light of day the Oakland Raiders’ trade of Amari Cooper looks like a good deal for the team, but it does nothing to help in the short term and facing the Colts who are heading in the right direction and coming off a big win I expect both teams to continue their streak.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Packers @ Rams (-9.5)

Gah, the Rams look so good at the moment and are finally home after three road games and clearly they are respected because this is the largest ever line against Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will hope their bye week will have worked wonders for Rodgers’ knee and whilst I expect Rams to win, I just can’t hand this many points to Aaron Rodgers.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

49ers @ Cardinals (-0.5)

The Cardinals were so bad against the Broncos last week, and whilst there should be some reaction, the noises surrounding Patrick Peterson won’t help and so whilst the 49ers are not exactly flying this season, they have managed to be competitive and I fancy them to run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Saints @ Vikings (-0.5)

The re-run of last season’s divisional game sees the Saints return to the US Bank Stadium and the scene of Stefon Diggs ridiculous game winning catch. The Vikings are a different team this season and although neither side of the ball are top ten in the league by DVOA like last year, the defence in particular has struggled but at least they have put a string of three wins together. In what should be a cracking game I’m going to back the team with the top five offence even if the Vikings have been playing better of late and could have Everson Griffen back.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Patriots @ Bills (+14.5)

There’s a reason this line is so big, the Bills who have been bad all season got blown out by the Colts last week with Derek Anderson throwing three interceptions and fumbling the ball. The Patriots turned round their offence with the return of Julian Edelman and the addition of Josh Gordon a few weeks ago and look like they should run out comfortable winners. In the last three years the Bills have only won one game (in week four and the Patriots are notorious slow starters) and in the last three ganes the Patriots have won by at least sixteen so whilst this line is high, I’m going to swing big with the Patriots

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

AAF: Darius Leonard

28 Sunday Oct 2018

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So getting back to watching a full game of coaching tape I wanted to take a look at something else on defence and a quick check of the NFL league leaders brought me back to a player I was hearing buzz about earlier in the season, namely Darius Leonard of the Indianapolis Colts who currently leads the league in tackles. So for this week’s amateur adventures in film I watched the Colts number fifty-three as they hosted the Buffalo Bills.

Sticking on the game the first thing that leapt out to me about Leonard was his fast feet that were twitching on the snap of the ball and allowed him a quick response to what was going on in front of him. A true three down backer he plays weakside or will linebacker in the Colts base 4-3 defence but the Colts spent a lot of this game reacting to the Bills’ 11 personnel package with nickel and dime defences but Leonard didn’t leave the game until the Bill’s final drive in the fourth quarter. This is not surprising as the rookie second round pick is a long athlete who very much moves well in space. He tends move round blocks although I did see him take on the Bills’ fullback Patrick DiMarco, shed the bloc and make the tackle, but I did also saw lineman and tight ends get their hands on Leonard and take him out the play. However, mostly he made the tackle, which is hardly surprisingly given he leads the league in tackles despite missing a game through an ankle injury. He is always around the ball and even if he is not the first there he will be helping with the tackle. It’s strong trait and whether he’s quickly diagnosing the play and rushing forward, reacting having dropped into a zone, spying on the running back, or following someone on a route he reacts and gets there quickly. A couple of times he couldn’t quite make the initial tackle and on one play Chris Ivory got round him to the edge and made a big pickup although Leonard did make the tackle in the end.

Leonard is not a big hitter and doesn’t look to set the edge which is why he play on the weak side, but he very much looks like a modern linebacker, athletic and able to play in space, which is increasingly necessary in the current NFL. The tackle statistic is one that is a slightly dubious one to put too much faith in as a bad team will give a player more opportunities to make a tackle as the opposing offence will be on the field longer but in a game where the Bills kept giving the Colts the ball with short fields, the defence was on the field without much rest and Leonard kept coming. It is early but he looks very promising and already the Colts defence ranks over ten places higher than last season by DVOA and I would say Darius Leonard had a big part in that.

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Eight

25 Thursday Oct 2018

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We go into week eight with all three of us on fifty-one points in the picks competition so plenty to play for.

Gee:    Week 7   5-9               Overall   51-56
Dan:    Week 7   6-8               Overall   51-56

Dolphins @ Texans (-7.5)

This week’s Thursday night game is a curious one that pits the Miami Dolphins’ two game losing streak against the Houston Texans’ three game winning streak. This is a bad spot for a Dolphins team who are pretty beat up even before they are on the road on a Thursday night. Their offence and defence sits just above middle ranks by DVOA and Brock Osweiler’s numbers, whilst not bad in his second start at quarterback, were not good enough to compensate for a defence that let Lions’ Kerryon Johnson ran for one hundred and fifty-eight yards on only nineteen carries.

The Texans’ offence has been very up and down but their defence is top five in the league by DVOA and whilst their pass defence has not been good, they are eighth in points allowed per game. I see nothing in this game that persuades me from my usual maxim for Thursday night other than the size of this line, which the Texans have only exceeded once this season against the Jaguars and so that does make me look hard. I keep changing my mind on this as I’m really worried about the spot the Dolphins are in but in the end this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Week 8 Trivia

‘As week 7 closes we find ourselves in ties wherever we turn. The Pick ‘Em sees all 3 of us with 51 points but the Trivia Quiz also has both Gee and Dan level on 3 each.

This week’s question was how many stadia had grass pitches and while the responses did have some logic behind them, Gee managed to pick up a single point even though his 21 was high – the answer being 19 with 12 being synthetic.

Don’t worry it confused Joe Namath too, when asked if he preferred grass or ‘astro’ he said he’d never smoked astroturf.

Moving swiftly on this week’s question is: Who is the Head Coach with Most Career Wins? I’ll add a bonus for anyone able to get closest to the exact number.

Keep moving those chains.’

Going for 2!

24 Wednesday Oct 2018

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We’re almost exactly half way through the season now for those teams who haven’t yet had their Bye week, which quite frankly is crazy. It doesn’t seem like 10 minutes since the beginning of the season. And to think that Gee and I are neck-and-neck in the pick-em competition after 7 weeks is equally crazy!

The Dolphins didn’t do all that well this week against the Lions. Brock did a sterling job against Chicago, and while he didn’t have the worst game I’ve seen, he wasn’t quite the same player as we saw in Week 6. What is becoming apparent though is just how broken our team is. It was well documented a few weeks ago how short we were on the Offensive line, but with Tannehill also out (and looking shakier by the minute), and some serious problems at Wide Receiver too (Albert Wilson’s been put on IR, Kenny Stills has missed some practice, and Danny Amendola is listed as ‘Questionable’ for this weeks trip to Texas) it means our whole offence is being held together with plasters. On top of that, apparently we’re looking to offload De’vante Parker for a third round Draft pick too, and with less than a week left before the trade deadline, it’s a shaky time for us Dolfans.

I realise I’m not giving Detroit the credit they deserve at this point. Matthew Stafford’s team looked very good, and fully deserved the win. They looked very comfortable, putting up over 240 yards of rushing offence together, and led all the way through. And all of a sudden, from being ridiculously optimistic, Miami are now at 4-3. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a winning record to this point, and being brutally honest, 4 games was as many as I thought we’d win all season going into this season, but it feels like a massive letdown from where we were a few weeks ago.

So what happened elsewhere… ah yes, the London game! This was a game which was absolutely made for Gee and his defensive obsession! I must say, it was well up there as one of the best Wembley games I think there has been. For those who haven’t seen it, I’d really recommend going back and watching at least the highlights. The game went down to pretty much the final play, and Tennessee came SO close to picking up the Win. It was a ballsy call by their head coach to go for 2 points at the end when they quite easily could have taken it to overtime and had another go. Personally, it’s not a call I would have made, and a lot of people were very critical of the move (including Bruce Arians who was CBS’s analyst for the game).

Another thing which will have made Gee happy this week will have been the number of Safeties which clocked up at 3. I won’t go into this too much as I know Gee will be all over it, but if you’re watching a game at the weekend and see a Safety occur, make sure you tweet me (@TWFDan) and Gee (@WrongFootball) using the hashtag #TWFSafeties so Gee can properly track them for his increasingly detailed records!

The Rams are still unbeaten, following another victory – this week a convincing win against San Francisco. Which means my betting tracker looks a bit like this:

We’ll see the third and final London game this week when the Eagles host (sort of) the Jaguars in a game which was very nearly last year’s Super Bowl. Should be a corker of a game!

And finally, I’ve just taken delivery of a load of new Dolphins merch today which has made me happy! I found a website called Fanatics UK who have the best range of NFL gear I’ve seen this side of the Atlantic Ocean. I promise this isn’t a sponsored post by the way – just a friendly recommendation… although if the good people at Fanatics fancy sending me some free stuff, I’m open to that!!

But what’s the best piece of NFL Merch you own? And how about the oldest? Drop me a line on Twitter – I’d love to see some photos of your haul!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

The Week of the Safety

24 Wednesday Oct 2018

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18-10-24 C Littleton

Image Credit: therams.com

It may not be the headline most people would go for, but it will do for me as we had three safeties over the weekend, taking the season total to five on an increase of 250% in one day and that has to be more interesting than the Bengals and Dolphins getting beat this weekend.

Okay fine, I’ll start with the Bengals running into the buzz saw that is the Kansas City Chiefs at home. The fact that the Chiefs offence was good is of no surprise to anyone, although it would have been nice if the talented Bengals pass rush was more effective and the tackling was better. No one seemed to be able to stop Kareem Hunt and I knew the Bengals were in trouble when Al Michaels announced that the Chiefs’ defence hadn’t forced a punt in seventeen drives and the Bengals opened with a three and out then punt. In fact they punted on the second drive as well and it wasn’t until the second quarter that they scored any points when CJ Uzomah caught the Bengals only touchdown. It’s easy enough to write of this game as a fan of the Bengals but the prime time stats are worrying and the game against the Buccaneers takes on huge significance if the Bengals are going to turn things around.

So the Chiefs are really good, as are the LA Rams who remain unbeaten with a comfortable 39-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers and to no one’s surprise it is late October and the Patriots have rounded into form and have a sole lead atop the AFC East after a win over the Chicago Bears.

We had a really competitive London game where the LA Chargers ran out 20-19 winners over the Tennessee Titans who couldn’t make a two point conversion after two attempts. I can understand the decision Mike Vrabel made to go for it and try to get the win, particularly with all the travel to London and it’s clear that at least a section of the new head coaches obviously believe in this aggressive approach as Frank Reich tried it earlier in the season and also lost. However, I’m not sure with Marcus Mariota’s movement skills why you wouldn’t have him move on one of those attempts. Another coach who might want to think about his late game tactics is Hue Jackson as the Cleveland Browns lost their fourth overtime game this season to a Tampa Bay field goal, which means they have already racked up half an extra game for their players despite the shortened overtime period introduced this season.

Moving on to one of the more surprising results of week seven, the Houston Texans went to Jacksonville and won 20-7 meaning the Jaguars have two divisional home losses already and Blake Bortles has very much not take a step this season. In assessments that should have the Giants worried, plenty of commentators are suggesting that perhaps investing the pick the Jaguars used on Leonard Fournette was not wise given that they could have had Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson with their fourth selection. In fact, of the quartet of high pick running backs we’ve had in recent years – Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Todd Gurley, it is only Gurley who is in the conversation for MVP and he also happens to have a head coach who’s quickly establishing himself as one of the best in the league as well as a very good young quarterback in Jared Goff. Just to heap it on a little more, apart from the hamstring problems that have side-lined Fournette for most of this season, you could argue that Fournette wasn’t even the most effective running back in his draft class given that Alvin Kamara was offensive rookie of the league last year. Now it is early and we could be saying different things in a couple of years and certainly Sqauon Barkley is some talent, but effective running backs are found at all kinds of rounds in the draft and sometimes undrafted too where as it much rarer to find quarterbacks outside of the early rounds. There’s a reason everyone makes a fuss about Tom Brady going in the fourth round or Tony Romo having the career he did having been un-drafted. It is not that plenty of quarterbacks picked early don’t flame out, but the low picked ones that make it are much rarer than effective running backs taken outside of the first round.

Moving away from draft strategy, but sticking to team building we have several teams who clearly are in win now mode and one that is very evidently tearing things down. Not content with trading away Khalil Mack, Jon Gruden has sent Amari Cooper to the Dallas Cowboys for a first round pick. There’s been plenty of criticism of the price the Cowboys paid given Cooper’s performance the last couple of seasons but they are belatedly trying to address the issues they have at receiver and the talk of the Raiders trading away Derek Carr is only increasing. Perhaps more intriguing is the New Orleans Saints move to acquire Eli Apple for a 2019 fourth round pick and a 2020 seventh round pick from the New York Giants. The Saints know they have a limited window given the age of Drew Brees but given that they have the second best record in the NFC already, you can see what they are doing in trading for a first round draft pick although given the recent moves to get up the draft (for defensive end Marcus Davenport) and in acquiring Teddy Bridgewater in pre-season. There are some thinner drafts coming, but with an ageing hall of fame quarterback you can see why they are trying to get him another ring now. I will assume that Dan, with his love of kicking, will cover the Saints winning thank to an unprecedented event or I will add it in myself if it is missed.

So finally, as I mentioned at the start of this post the #TWFSafties watch continues with the three we saw this week. Going through them in sort order from pro-football-reference.com we had a blocked punt that went through the back of the end-zone for a safety for the Ram against the 49ers. The fun stat about this play is that this is Cory Littleton’s fourth blocked punt since the start of last year, which is kind of incredible. I may have to dig into this a little more if I can find the stats to see how that compares historically. The second was pretty standard as Peyton Barber of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was tackled before he could get out the end-zone as the Buccaneers were on their own one yard line. It was Trevon Coley’s only tackle in the game but he scored the Browns two points and a field goal and it’s just a shame that they couldn’t put them to better use. Finally, the Buffalo Bills lost 37-5 against the Indianapolis Colts and two of those points they had very little to do with as a high snap bounced off Andrew Luck’s hands and into the end-zone before squirting out the back as players pursued the ball. I usually like to see a quarterback safety but my favourite for this week has to be the Littleton’s fourth punt block.

I now I need to start worrying about next week’s picks (not going well) and the Bengals which aren’t faring much better!

2018 Week Seven Picks

21 Sunday Oct 2018

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So I had a Thursday night where I pretty much couldn’t have been further from right so let’s hope that form doesn’t spill into today’s picks! Firstly, however, can I pick up any more points in the trivia competition:

‘How many of the 31 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces? I’ll give a score of  2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

So I’ve been through a list of teams and assigned those that I think play on grass but looking at the number I think I’m wrong. I’ll go for it anyway, so twenty-one.

‘We’re back to guessing again. Question for me is do I think more or less than half have turf… I think it’s close. I’ll say 15 have Grass.’

Titans @ Chargers (-6.5)

These are two teams in very different places and I have a lot more faith in the Chargers given they have only lost to very good teams for quite a while now. I’m hesitant because of the size of the line but given the frequency with which London games seem to be one sided I’m going to pick them to cover this line against a Titans team who gave up eleven sacks last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Bills @ Colts (-6.5)

I think the Indianapolis Colts are a better team than their 1-5 record indicates and having played four games on the road so far this season t this looks to be as good a chance as they’ve had to get a home win. The Buffalo Bills defence actually ranks third by DVOA but after Josh Allen picked up an elbow injury they’re starting Derek Anderson who has only been on the roster for a little over a week. This could bite me but there is a big difference between these two teams’ overall DVOA percentage and I’m backing Andrew Luck and his team to cover, even if I don’t like laying this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Patriots @ Bears (+3.5)

So I am very curious about this game as the New England Patriots will be riding high after a big win against the Chiefs on Sunday night football last week, whereas the Bears are coming off a disappointing loss to the Dolphins in the heat of Miami. Not only did the Bears lose, but Khalil Mack picked up an ankle injury although is expected to play. It feels strange to me that the Bears are actually ranked higher than the Patriots by DVOA, particularly as there’s a fairly large difference in DVOA percentage between them, but it’s not a figure I trust. The Bears had such a huge win over the Buccaneers I suspect it is skewing the figures and there is no way you can trust Mitch Trubisky even if Matt Nagy is at least scheming him a way to have a chance of success. I like the Patriots to win this game but in a matchup of the seventh ranked offence versus the number one defence by DVOA I’m going to grab this number of points at home for the cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Browns @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the first team to fire a co-ordinator when Mike Smith was let go after their loss to the Falcons last week. Yes, the defence has been a big problem but their offence has thrown for a lot of yards and scored points but more often not has not been able to overcome their porous defence. This week a welcome a Cleveland Browns team who had their first bad loss of the season last week, but who still have a top ten defence even if the offence is struggling. I don’t know how Baker Mayfield will look given the ankle injury he picked up last week but this could be a tough spot for them on the road but also represents an opportunity to get right. The extra half point worries me as I don’t really trust either team so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The Miami Dolphins remain in contention for a playoff spot thanks in large part to an unbeaten home record, aided by heat and humidity that has sapped the strength of their opponents. Last week they beat an improved Bears team and now they welcome an up and down Detroit Lions who have two quality wins, including the Packers last week. The emergence of Kenny Golladay at receiver and rookie running back Kerryon Johnson has caught the eye but only led to a DVOA ranking of twentieth. In fact, there is a huge difference in overall DVOA percentage between these two teams that’s leading me to join Dan in backing the Dolphins this week, even if Brock Osweiler likely being the quarterback again doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Vikings @ Jets (+3.5)

Things have picked up for the Minnesota Vikings in the last couple of weeks as they managed to beat the Eagles and Cardinals but their vaunted defence just isn’t the same this season and whilst Kirk Cousins has generated a lot offence, he has also fumbled a number of times and thrown three interceptions to go with his twelve touchdowns. This week they travel to face the New York Jets who are actually ranked five placed ahead of the Vikings by overall DVOA as well as having the same number of wins. Sam Darnold may have looked like a rookie quarterback but he’s looked like a good one, although his favourite receiver Quincy Enunwa is going to be missing for a couple of weeks with an ankle sprain. This is quite a lot of points for the Jets at home and with the extra half point I’m strongly tempted to pick them but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I could regret this but I’m nervously backing the always competitive Vikings.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Panthers @ Eagles (-4.5)

After a straight forward road win on Thursday night, the Philadelphia Eagles return home to host a Carolina Panthers who lost on the road in Washington last week. The Panthers still rank better by overall DVOA and the Eagles have been up and down all season, mainly due to the problems they’ve had on offence. The last couple of weeks have looked better though as Carson Wentz has found his feet behind centre and he got Alshon Jeffery back from injury. The Panthers not only lost to Washington, but needed a last minute sixty yard field goal to beat the New York Giants and with them being on the road for a second week in a row it feels like the Eagles have the edge in this one. I’m not thrilled with the points but I think the Eagles are on the up whilst the Panthers are having a wobble. This is usually the cue for me to get the pick wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

Texans @ Jaguars (-4.5)

These are two teams that right now are performing pretty similarly in that they both have top ten defences and under-performing offences. The Jaguars come home after losing two on the road and you have to think the defence will be desperate to put things right after shipping forty against the Cowboys last week. The Texans struggling offensive line could be just the tonic to facilitate that and the fact that Deshaun Watson is fighting a chest injury is perhaps not surprising given the amount of times he has been hit. It’s a big if, but if Blake Bortles can stop the turnovers this week then things could easily settle for the Jaguars and I fancy them to bounce back big now that they are finally home. The points worry me though, and in the end I’m going to grab the points in a game that has far too many unknowns for me to feel comfortable making a strong pick.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Saints @ Ravens (-2.5)

This should be a cracking matchup when the New Orleans Saints’ offence takes on the Baltimore Ravens’ defence and this looks to be one of the more interesting matchups of the week. The Saints are coming of a bye having won their previous four weeks, but this will be as stiff a challenge as they have faced all season and the Saints are actually ranked three places lower in DVOA thanks to the balance the Ravens have across all phases of the game. The numbers for Drew Brees on the road are markedly different and going against the leagues number two defence by DVOA in Baltimore where they Ravens only need a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team but it would not surprise me if the Saints win this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (-1.5)

I almost have no idea what to do with this one. After joining the chorus of people stating their frustration with the Cowboys offence, they came up with a game plan that scored forty points against the Jaguars vaunted defence last week and this week they travel to a perennially average Washington team who seem to specialise in being around 8-8. I don’t have a lot of faith in either side so it’s hard to pick. That said the Cowboys defence is just outside the top ten by DVOA and is fifth against the run so whilst Washington have done well when Adrian Peterson has got yards, I’m not sure he can do it week to week or against this defence. The Cowboys have been bad on the road but in this divisional matchup they have won the last four and getting points I’m going to take a risk. Watch Washington prove me wrong now!

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Rams @ 49ers (+10.5)

It’s a trap! The LA Rams are rolling and are the only remaining undefeated team having swept aside all before them and this week they travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers team who have one win so far this season. However, as much as the Rams don’t let up on their opponents, they have some injuries and it has been three weeks since they beat a team by enough points to cover this spread and they are on the road for a third straight week. I’m not predicting an upset, certainly for a team on a short week but I think the 49ers can keep this within eleven.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Bengals @ Chiefs (-5.5)

I am properly terrified by this game. Even though it wasn’t the worst defeat to the Steelers last week, the Bengals picked up a bunch of knocks and worrying injuries in the secondary. Now they are taking their twenty-fourth ranked defence on the road to face the terrifying Kansas City Chiefs’ juggernaut of an offence. This game had loss written all over it even before it was flexed into prime time, which has historically not been a happy place for the Marvin Lewis led Bengals. I think this will be a shootout and it is possible the Bengals will hang with the Chiefs but I don’t know if they can keep it close enough to make a cover worth a pick. In a second week of emotional hedging, I will hope to be proved wrong but I wasn’t last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Giants @ Falcons (-6.5)

This is a strange primetime matchup in that it pits a New York Giants team struggling to put together much on either side of the ball against an Atlanta Falcons team who are beset by injuries. The Falcons defence is ranked thirty-first in league by DVOA having lost key players up its spine and so their offence has not been able to score enough to win games. The Giants have two world class skills position players, but with the problems on the offensive line and Eli Manning’s struggles they have not been able to really take advantage of them enough to win. The ability of Saquon Barkley is breath taking, but he has been very boom or bust with long runs combined with getting stuffed at the line. This is a big line for a team with two wins, but the Falcons have one unit that is still in the top half by DVOA and with Matt Ryan at home let’s push the boat out as I just can’t trust the Giants on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Seven

18 Thursday Oct 2018

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Somehow we are at week seven and with me barely holding onto a lead in the pick competition we turn to the new week’s games.

Gee:    Week 6   8-7               Overall   46-47
Dan:     Week 6   9-6               Overall   45-48

Broncos @ Cardinals (+2.5)

This is a difficult pick given that whilst the Cardinal have shown enough on defence to beat the spread a couple of times, they are pairing a top ten defence by DVOA with the thirty-first ranked offence that has a fair gap between them and Cleveland at thirtieth and a chasm down to the Bills who are propping up the league. However, whilst the Broncos are somehow ranked thirteenth overall by DVOA and eighteenth on defence, they have also given up and astonishing five hundred and ninety-three rush yards in the last two games. Now I thought this would be historically bad, and whilst it is certainly not good, the Indianapolis Colts actually managed this feat last year and there have been two hundred such streaks since the merger. Now I focussed on this diligently because David Johnson is an incredibly talented back, but it turns out the Cardinals are ranked thirty-second in the league for run attack by DVOA so now I’m even more lost…

I am actually interested in this game, I want to see what is going on with both teams and take a look at Josh Rosen but picking it feels like a fool’s errand. However, there is a picks competition to keep going and so a side has to be taken. Working on my principle of picking the home team Thursday night unless there is a really good reason not to, and given that I’m getting points I’m going to pick the Cardinals but this is what is technically known as a crap shoot.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Week 7 Trivia

This week’s write up of the trivia is too good to cut, and I’m not just saying that because I pulled a point back on Dan:

‘Week 5’s kickers question and Graham Gano’s 63 yarder prompted an unusual bonus question in week 6.

My original Wk6 offering asked which College Football teams had produced the most Hall of Famers. Well Gee warmed up some of his grey cells and correctly answered Notre Dame but didn’t add to this Southern California, both of which have sent 12 of their number. I will, however, award Gee 1 point for the weeks best effort.

The Bonus then asked who holds the IN PLAY record FG distance. Dan was convinced that the record stood at 63 but I hadn’t shot myself in the foot as on 8 December 2013 the Broncos Matt Pater scored a withering 64 yards. I’m glad I specified In Play or we may have seen a new offence of ‘roughing the question master’ when I tell you that College kicker Nick Rose from Texas managed an imperious 80 yards. Yes 80. So it was just 1 point for Gee this week I’m afraid.

Calming things down, here is the question for Week 7 is, very simply – How many of the 32 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces. I’ll give a score of 2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

Don’t Worry, No-One Knows Anything…

17 Wednesday Oct 2018

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18-10-17 M-Tomlin

Image Credit: behindthesteelcurtain.com

So with a heart filled with the familiar pain of a loss to our divisional rivals I have to pick up the jagged bloody pieces of my fandom and get on with the blog because the NFL schedule waits for no one.

The Bengals lost to the Steelers again, but it wasn’t exactly an implosion and Andy Dalton gave the boys in stripes a lead with 1:18 left on the clock in the fourth quarter, but Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brows sealed the game and whilst some are complaining about calls, this was a close game and the mounting injuries were as much the cause as anything. It doesn’t get any easier though as the Bengals are on the road against Kansas City this week and have been flexed into the Sunday night game, which bodes badly given the Bengals poor record in nationally televised games.

However, enough of my gloom! One of the reasons that covering the NFL is fun is that even with the most detailed preparation no one knows anything and there were plenty of surprises amongst the entertaining week six games.

I chose entertaining deliberately as we had one of the best games of the season this week with the Kansas City Chiefs going to New England taking them down to the final whistle as Stephen Gostkowski kicked a twenty-eight yard field goal to seal the win. For what felt like the first time this season it looked a little bit like Patrick Mahomes felt some nerves being on the road in front of the nation, but the Chiefs recovered from a half time score 0f 9-24 and forced a final second field goal out of the Patriots. I’m sure plenty of people are already hoping for a repeat game in the playoffs, whilst I’m just worried about what the Chiefs are going to do to the Bengals next week, but let’s not disappear down that rat hole!

Part of the excitement of this season has been the dominance of the offence this season where even a team that has the number one defence by DVOA can give up five hundred yards to a Miami Dolphins offence helmed by Brock Osweiler. Now a lot of this was done by Adam Gase utilising his young skill players ability to turn short passes into long gains, but is impressive none the less. I’m beginning to think the only reliable defence at the moment belongs to the Baltimore Ravens who shut out the Tennessee Titans this week and managed to rack up eleven sacks. This is too many for me not to take a look at their pass rush for my amateur adventures in film post and it will be nice to get back to some defensive tape. However, the story this season really is offence and not always from the usual suspects. I shared the frustrations I had heard repeatedly stated about the Dallas Cowboys offence having seen it for my own eyes against the Texans earlier this season, but thanks to modern technology it takes so much less time for plays to spread and the Cowboys came up with a doozy of a game plan in week six that enabled them to stick forty points on the Jacksonville Jaguars defence. Okay, so there were four field goals in that total but Cole Beasley racked up over a hundred receiving yards and a two touchdowns whilst Ezekiel Elliott also ran for a hundred yards. All this was with Dak Prescott throwing for a modest one hundred and eight-three yards but he also chipped in with eighty-two yards on the ground. I’m not saying everything is suddenly fixed, things are far too unpredictable but this game is definitely something that could be built upon.

There’s a reason that I said could. If this season has taught us nothing else, it is to be wary of the grand statement. Now this is a familiar feeling to me having been blogging about this league for four years now, which is really nothing, but it does feel like the development and changes within the league are accelerating. Every year we see teams who were bottom of their division suddenly leading, even if there are a handful of teams who always seem to do well or poorly, but it does feel like things are increasingly topsy-turvy and week to week. This is likely to be that apart from the structural things to do with the rosters, injury luck, and tactical complexity that makes predicting outcomes difficult, we have such a small sample size that every game takes on more importance and we draw bigger inferences than we should on the basis of one game. Across the entire season they sort themselves out a little, but it is so hard to remain competitive across a season never mind to build a dynasty like the Patriots currently have, or that the 49ers had when I was growing up.

It also doesn’t help when trends spread across season. It feels like LA Chargers have been competitive but losing too many close games for a while, but if you look back at their results to include last season. They may have started 2017 with four losses, but since week five of last season the Chargers have only lost to the Patriots, Jaguars and Chiefs last in 2017 and the Chiefs and Rams this season. That gives them a record of 13-5 record over an admittedly arbitrarily selected series of games. However, they beat the Cleveland Browns convincingly this week and so perhaps I should be a little more trusting of them given that they had moved cities and hired a new head coach before the start of said 2017 season and that four loss streak. There is plenty of talent on their roster and having listed them as a real contender two weeks ago, I’m really beginning to think they will compete across this season. I hereby apologise for the jink I have just placed on the Chargers.

I can’t finish this blog without saying a quick word about the London game. It was a rainy Wembley that saw the host Oakland Raiders get thoroughly beaten by the Seattle Seahawks and we should not take for granted that we still get to see live regular NFL games in this country. There have been some great competitive games at Wembley, but we have also seen our fair share of one sided contests. This time both teams had to travel from the west coach of America so there’s no real disadvantage there but whilst the Seahawks may well be rebuilding, at least they have a settled head coach and general manager working together. It feels like Jon Gruden is rebuilding the Raiders by tearing everything down, which is interesting as the GM who built it, Reggie McKenzie, is still there. Not content with trading away Khalil Mack there’s now rumblings the Raiders would accept a number one pick for Amari Cooper and people are talking about how little a cap hit it would be to cut Derek Carr at the end of the season. This is all getting a bit speculative for me to want to cover, other than to say with a roster that has a number of older players, if they are going to tear everything down it could take a while to get good again and I don’t see how this is going to sell tickets in Las Vegas. Still, all we can do for now is watch and wonder, which is pretty much how I’ve felt all season, be it considering thoughtfully or gazing in awe.