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As Seasons Turn

28 Wednesday Oct 2020

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The NFL season feels as if is nearing the turn. We are looking at the week eight games coming up, the trade deadline is next Tuesday when the US goes to the polls (although many have already voted) and after week nine all teams will have played half of their sixteen games. It might simply be because the clocks have just gone back in the UK, but it feels as like we are properly into the autumn now, but I don’t want to wish away the year so let’s take a look at what happened in the week seven games.

What I Saw

The week seven Thursday night game was a slightly odd spectacle that saw the New York Giants fall behind the Eagles as the team from Philadelphia marched on their opening drive of the game to score a touchdown, then work their way back to take a 21-10 lead with under ten minutes left on the clock, but the Giants ultimately lost 21-22. The big talking point out of this game was Daniel Jones running for eighty yards and tripping over with no one near him only eight yards from the end zone. However, it is perhaps the play of Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz that is the most significant for the rest of the season. As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles moved the ball smartly on their opening drive, but after this initial six and a half minutes or so, Wentz looked like he was broken, trying to do to much rather than throw the ball away as the offence really struggled. Now with the injuries on the offensive line and at the skills positions there are some valid reasons for this, but it’s the stark disparity between this bad football and then Wentz finding his way in the fourth quarter to lead his team back that is confusing. Wentz finished the game with three-hundred and fifty-nine passing yards and two touchdowns to go with his interception, but he needs to find a way to lessen the lows to give his team a better chance of winning each week. Even with all their injuries the Eagles probably look best placed to win an NFC East division where all the teams are struggling, but if they can beat the Cowboys in the Sunday night game then their week nine bye could be the very real moment where they can try to get some players back healthy. Meanwhile, for all the Giants’ struggles this season, they have kept the last three games close and beaten the Washington Football Team in the process, but this week’s game against the Buccaneers is going to be a very different level of test.

The pick of the games when I checked the schedule for week seven was the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the unbeaten Tennessee Titans and ultimately winning out 27-24. The Steelers built a commanding 24-7 lead in the first half and was able to hold on for the win despite a strong comeback from the Titans in the second half. That said, the Steelers continue to show great balance in all three phases of the game, and even if their offence did slip out of the top ten by DVOA this week, they have a number of good young receivers that meant that with the Titan’s focussing on rookie sensation Chase Claypool they still were able to amass two hundred and fifty yards of passing offence. The defence looks to have coped despite the loss of linebacker Devin Bush and whilst the loss doesn’t change my mind about the Titans, you can definitely see why the Steelers are the sole unbeaten team in the NFL right now, but their schedule doesn’t get any easier this week as they take on the rested Ravens.

The Cleveland Browns played and entertaining game with the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that was decided by who had the ball last as neither defences were able to consistently stop each other. It was Baker Mayfield who was able to drive the Browns seventy-five yards in under a minute to seal the game 37-34 with a touchdown pass to Donovan Peoples-Jones. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow continues to impress for the Bengals and threw for over four hundred yards this week, but a promising set of receivers does not a winning offence make and with continued issues on the offensive line as well as the defense we know what the Bengals are this season. There are some who think that this is okay as another poor record will secure the Bengals another high draft pick to build the team with, but there have been problems on the o-line and defence for too long now for me to be certain that the current regime can succeed in that endeavour. The Browns continue to make me think that they are on the right track, and even if Baker Mayfield is not the long term at quarterback, a 5-2 record is not to be sneezed at and this is not your usual 2.0 version of the Browns that have only made the play-offs once in the twenty-two seasons since the franchise returned in 1999.

The final game I saw this weekend was the rip-roaring game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks that saw the Cardinals manage to kick the game winning field goal in overtime on the second attempt having handed the ball back to the Seahawks on second down the previous drive after their first game winning attempt was missed. For all that there were some questionable decisions late in the game, this was a highly entertaining matchup where the defensive play of the contest was made by Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf chased Cardinals Safety Budda Baker down after he intercepted a Russell Wilson pass and ran it the length of the field, expecting to get the touchdown when Metcalf not only made up the yards to catch Baker but then made a great tackle. It was a game turning play because even if the Seahawks ultimately lost, they stopped the Cardinals from scoring in the following drive and then marched the ball down the field to score themselves and in this close a contest that really mattered. However, the three interceptions Wilson threw meant his continued production was not enough for the Seahawks to win the game this time. The NFC West is a monster of a division in 2020, with all four teams having winning records and if this game is anything to go by, there will be plenty more great divisional games to come during the rest of the season.

What I Heard

There has been lots of discussion about the trade deadline next week, not least because the salary cap is going to come down significantly next season thanks to the revenue drop from not having full stadiums. Already we have had some players moving including a disgruntled Carlos Dunlap heading from the Bengals where he is their all time sack leader to a Seahawks team who desperately need some pass rush.

It feels like because of the complexities of football the possible upsides from such trades is unlikely to match the fan excitement, but I do wonder if we will see more action because of the effects of Covid-19 and we have all ready seen teams signing veterans to the practice squad so they can get a longer look at them and get the player acclimatise before they have to carry them on the roster. The best teams are always looking to make best use of the rules they can so we have to see if someone can make a material improvement to how their team looks.

What I Hope

With the Bengals are hosting the Titans this weeken,d I fear for our run defence against Derrek Henry so I mainly hope we can keep the game competitive and Burrow healthy.

What I am really excited about is the chance to watch Tua Tagovailoa make his first start for the Dolphins against the Rams, and I just hope the bold prediction Dan forced me to make on the pod doesn’t coincide with something bad happening to Tua.

A Strange Week

31 Wednesday Oct 2018

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It has been a strange week here in Leicester. Dan has already captured it from the vantage of Leicester City season ticket holder who can explain it much better than I can so the first thing I’m going to do is point you to his post here.

For those of you who want to stick to the NFL I shall try to resume normal service.

The games of week eight saw the Rams continue their unbeaten start to the season with little a help from Ty Montgomery who has been traded from the Packers but I’ll get to the trades shortly as the deadline passed yesterday. It was a week where the cream of the league continue to rise. Going back to my league tiers I would say that the LA Rams and Kansas City Chiefs have been joined by the New Orleans Saints who have been a little lucky with a couple of wins (you can’t predict Justin Tucker missing his first ever extra point at any level) but have only one loss. The New England Patriots have also turned a corner and are now 6-2 and top of their division.

The Cincinnati Bengals remain competitive but have slipped to second in their division thanks to a three game losing streak and barely managed to beat the Tampa Bay Bucaneers who staged a remarkable fourth quarter comeback off the back of Ryan Fitzpatrick coming into the game. The Bengals defence is now ranked twenty-fifth in the league and there are real problems in the secondary so losing edge rusher Carl Lawson to a torn ACL really hurts, although at least the Bengals have some depth at pass rusher. Still it feels like they are slipping back, as are the Baltimore Ravens who fell back to 4-4 despite being more balanced this season so suddenly the Pittsburgh Steelers are top of the division. The Carolina Panthers are almost quietly grinding out wins as are the LA Chargers who both have joined the Bengals with five wins but I fancy both teams are in better situations than mine. The Houston Texans have now won five straight and have a two game lead on the Tennessee Titans who have been competitive but struggled and the Jacksonville Jaguars who seem to be imploding. Finally, they may be doing it with strength in the lines and running the ball, which you wouldn’t think would work these days but Washington have five wins and what looks to be a favourable schedule going forward. I’m not sure if I trust them, but they stand atop of the NFC East.

The NFC North is currently split between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears show promise but it is hard to trust Mitch Trubisky and no defence is good enough with the current rules to really dominated as they could in the past. The Vikings are putting up points with Kirk Cousins but the defence has regressed, although there is no shame in losing to the Saints at the moment. The Seattle Seahawks have also now picked up four wins with an improvement on the offensive line and the second ranked defence by DVOA. The Philadelphia Eagles are struggling, but got the win in London and I like the trade for Golden Tate in terms of trying to help this team win now by giving Carson Wentz a proven receiving options. Meanwhile the Miami Dolphins have regressed back to 4-4 as injuries look to have hampered them and whilst Adam Gase can manufacture some offence, you are always going to struggle with Brock Osweiler starting multiple games and I’m just not sure what the long term plan is in Miami.

Lurking with three wins the Green Bay Packers looked good on Sunday, and you wouldn’t have bet against Aaron Rodgers getting the win against the Rams if he’d got on the field with two minutes left but for the aforementioned Ty Montgomery fumble on a kick-off return that put pay to that. I still don’t know what to expect out of the Detroit Lions who run the ball well finally, and do not much else well. They do have a couple of big wins but every time I think they’re turning the corner they lose.

The Indianapolis Colts do seem to be turning a corner despite only having three wins with Andrew Luck looking more like himself. The defence also seems to have improved with rookie linebacker Darius Leonard catching my eye wen I looked at the coaching tape of him last week

However, it’s these next teams where we get into the run of the mill bad teams. The Denver Broncos have some good early wins but the defence just isn’t the same and Case Keenum has not been the answer they hoped for at quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could well have improved on defence since firing Mike Smith as their defensive coordinator and at least made the last couple of games competitive. But, when Ryan Fitzpatrick is outplaying your franchise quarterback you have a serious issues on offence and it could well mean a complete reset of the franchise in the off-season. The Atlanta Falcons have been so riven by injury that they fall into this tier despite Matt Ryan ranking fifth by Football Outsiders’ DYAR stat, which represents a quarterback’s total value. The Dallas Cowboys have just traded a first round pick for Amari Cooper but it seems like this is a desperate move and despite improvements on defence this team have struggled and who knows what could happen, but I’m not expecting a big turnaround this season although they are only two games back on Washington despite only having three wins.

The final tier gives us the truly awful. The Buffalo Bills at least play hard on defence, even ranking fourth by DVOA but their offence has struggled all year and with Josh Allen’s injury are not even losing productively as Derek Anderson is helping no one develop. This is not quite the same for the Arizona Cardinals who have been equally awful on offence but at least Josh Rosen is showing some moments, I just feel sorry for Larry Fitzgerald who frankly deserves better at the end of a tremendous career. The Cleveland Browns were the first team to fire their head coach, finally letting Hue Jackson go and firing Todd Haley as offensive coordinator as well. The Browns don’t have any history of doing things right in this iteration of the franchise and so it is hard to see things really working out for them in the long term as they need to persuade a really good coach to take over. I just don’t know who that would be given the owner’s history. The San Francisco 49ers at least have an excuse with losing Jerick McKinnon and Jimmy Garoppolo early in the season, but it has to be worrying that more of their young players are not playing better. There could be concerns over the direction the franchise is heading in now the excitement of the takeover by Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch is beginning to fade. The other one win team who at least have some talent are the New York Giants who bet on being able to turn around Eli Manning and were just wrong. They seem to have realised this as they have been trading away players from the defence but this is a lost season and they need to find a new quarterback for next season and shoring up the offensive line would be good idea too.

Finally, and in a world of their own are the Oakland Raiders who have shown flashes of competitiveness, but having traded away both Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, and are clearly tearing things down in Jon Gruden’s first season. It’s one thing to amass all these picks, but they’ll need to hit if they are to make a success of their move to Las Vegas and as the Cleveland Browns showed, you can have all the picks and even amass the talent but without good coaching it won’t win games. I don’t know where this is going as I can’t see into the future, but it doesn’t feel well managed so far, although the Cooper trade at least looks like a good deal.

So there we go, all the teams rushed through and you will have notice a lot more trade talk as this has definitely increased in recent years. The Eagles demonstrated last year what you could do to build a roster with the right trades and have tried it again. The Rams and Saints are both clearly in win now mode with them both making moves before the deadline despite having quarterbacks at very different stages of their career. The Packers traded away several players for picks that might help in the long run but makes things more difficult for Aaron Rodgers, and whilst I wouldn’t bet against him still dragging this team to the playoffs, the trades didn’t exactly help. I think this is a new world that we will get used to and I will be curious to see how much effect the new players will have on the teams they have joined. It’s hard not to be a fan of teams trying more things to win though.