Monthly Archives: November 2022

2022 Week Twelve Picks

27 Sunday Nov 2022

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We did it in different ways, but both Dan and I went 2-1 with the Thanksgiving day games and now our attention turns to the rest of the week twelve slate.

Early Games:

The game that leaps out of this list is the Titans welcoming the Bengals back to Nashville and likely have revenge on their mind given the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs on their way to the Super Bowl. The Bengals have turned a corner on offence in recent weeks, but also have injuries and whilst they may not give up nine sacks like they did in January, I do not have a huge amount of confidence going into this game and with the Titans getting points at home I feel I have to take the points and hope to be proved wrong.

Other than that it will be interesting to see what Mike White can do as the starter for the Jets, and the Broncos have to be hoping they can do something against the lowly Panthers

Buccaneers @ Browns (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Bengals @ Titans (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Texans @ Dolphins (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Bears @ Jets (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Falcons @ Washington (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Broncos @ Panthers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Ravens @ Jaguars (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Late Games:

This is a strange slate of games given the Chargers have been struggling, but look to be in a better place that the Cardinals, no one trusts the Raiders, and the Rams are flat out bad this year. The 49ers are rounding into form and are taking on a Saints team who just have not looked good this season, making their all-in off-season moves even more questionable.

Chargers @ Cardinals (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Raiders @ Seahawks (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Rams @ Chiefs (-14.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Saints @ 49ers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ Eagles (-7.5)

It turns out that Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb in week five, and that surely can’t have helped but I don’t know if it explains all of the Packers woes this season. Given their respective form and the numbers I am going with the Packers to stick within a touchdown of the Eagles, but this is one where I’m having to trust the process given how both teams have played this season and I don’t feel confident in the selection.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Monday Night Football

Steelers @ Colts (-2.5)

This is an odd game where I really don’t want anything to do with the number, and one I’ll see if I can watch given that Jeff Saturday is 2-0 despite his lack of higher-level coaching experience before taking over the Colts two weeks ago. Still, the Steelers have some players back and did well for large stretches against the Bengals last week and so whilst I don’t have strong feelings either way, I’m leaning to the Steelers a little with no strong number to go on.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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Competition Thursday: 2022 Thanksgiving

24 Thursday Nov 2022

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It has been quieter here than I intended the last few weeks thanks to various things at work, and a trip to Stamford Bridge on Sunday to watch the Chelsea women beat Spurs, but games were still picked and I did get to see the Bengals beat the Steelers, which is always a good thing!

However, I do seem to have completely lost the knack of picking games, or at least I haven’t done better than Dan since week five and have sunk below .500. In that time, Dan has kept picking up a point or two and slowly whittled down my lead to two points. I need to turn things around fast, starting with the Thanksgiving games!

Gee:Week 11:  6 – 8Overall:  81 – 83
Dan:Week 11:  7 – 7Overall:  79 – 85

There are three interesting games on this week, with the lines seemingly bigger than expected. The Lions come into their traditional Thanksgiving game with a three game win streak and face a Bills team that have had enough injuries and problems that whilst I expect the Bills to win, this line is a bit rich for me. The Bills are not suddenly a bad team, but they do look a little fragile and that is a problem when your expectations are Super Bowls.

The Cowboys are coming of a complete domination of the Vikings last week and welcome a Giants team that even after a couple of losses are a lot more competitive than anyone was expecting going into the season. I understand why this line is so high, but it is tricky as the Cowboys are the right side of ten, but I just worry that the Giants are going to make this divisional game more competitive than that. I really don’t like this line but am nervously backing the Giants.

The final game sees the 8-2 Vikings looking to get right after their awful loss to the Cowboys last week. Part of that was the Cowboys ability to take advantage of the loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw to concussion and whilst the Patriots don’t have a pass rusher like Micah Parsons, they are ranked first in defensive DVOA. The Pats are having an existential crisis at quarterback and so if the Vikings get going its hard to see the Pats keeping up. However, as much as Kirk Cousins seems to have been unlocked with a new head coach and offensive coordinator, this is still prime time against a defensive master and so whilst I’m not sure the Pats will win, this line is the wrong side of three for me to back Cousins in prime time against Bill Belichick.

Bills @ Lions (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Giants @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Patriots @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Survivor Competition

After getting myself level in week eight, Dan and I have either both scored or both struck out, but going into week twelve we only have six points each so hardly a ringing endorsement of our picks.

This week we have both gone for home teams with Dan backing the Seahawks to beat the Raiders, whilst I’m hoping I’m not being a jinx as I back the Dolphins to beat the Texans.

Current Score

Gee: 6
Dan: 6

Week 12 Selection:

Gee:     Texans @ Dolphins
Dan:    Raiders @ Seahawks

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2022 Week Ten Picks

13 Sunday Nov 2022

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Slowly, slowly Dan is reeling me in. I think this run started before the podcast went on hiatus so I can’t blame that, but I clearly need to stop this slide and at least keep things even this week yet alone claw some wins back to extend my narrowing lead.

Gee:Week 9:  6 – 7Overall:  69 – 67
Dan:Week 9:  8 – 5Overall:  65 – 71

Survivor Competition

So we have that rare thing last week where both of us had successful picks with the Patriots and Dolphins coming through. This week Dan went for the Falcons against the Panthers and so has already given me the opportunity to take a lead. I’m slightly nervous about this pick but the rankings give me this team as my best option and I’m going against a coach who has only coached high school before as I back the Raiders to beat the Colts.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 10 Selection:

Gee:    Colts @ Raiders
Dan:    Falcons @ Panthers

Early Games:

We have an early early game this week as the Seahawks take on the Buccaneers, and Tom Brady is expecting a crazy atmosphere and I’m certainly inclined to agree with him. However, the Buccaneers are struggling and at this point we must take the Seahawks seriously so on what will be a neutral field we’ll see what happens

The gloss comes off the Vikings visiting the Bills due to the Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen having an elbow injury, the Broncos at Titans sees us giving Russel Wilson another stern test, but there is not a lot jumping off the slate to me right now.

Seahawks @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Vikings @ Bills (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Lions @ Bears (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Broncos @ Titans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Browns @ Dolphins (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Texans @ Giants (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Saints @ Steelers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Late Games:

The Cowboys visiting Lambeau Field should be one of the games of the week, but with the ongoing disaster that the Packers season has been it’s hard to pick much to be excited about in these three games. The Colts are now being coached by someone without coaching experience above high school against a Raiders team that are really struggling, whilst in the third game both quarterbacks have shown up on the injury list this week and neither the Rams or Cardinals have impressed this season.

Colts @ Raiders (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Cowboys @ Packers (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Sunday Night Football:

Chargers @ 49ers (-6.5)

This should be a great matchup, and might even be so, but it would be slightly against expectation given that the Chargers have stuttered all season and don’t seem to be making best use of their star second year quarterback Justin Herbert. Meanwhile, if he can stay healthy running back Christian McCaffrey is a cheat code that unlocks Jimmy Garoppolo running Kyle Shanahan’s offence that in a weak NFC could see the 49ers making a real run at a deep run in the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Monday Night Football

Washington @ Eagles (-10.5)

This line makes me nervous, but I’m not that impressed with Washington for all of the usual reasons, while the Eagles have continued to dominate and whilst I have conflicting numbers that indicates I could take the points, I just don’t trust Washington on the road, and I do now have a faith in the Eagles. I just hope it isn’t misplaced.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

2022 Week Nine Picks

06 Sunday Nov 2022

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Well, Dan and I both went for the Eagles on Thursday and paid the price for it with a loss to start week nine with the Eagles winning, but not quite by enough for us to cover. That’s particularly frustrating for me as Dan has continued to reel me in as I seem to have lost my early season form, but fingers crossed I can stop the bleeding soon.

Gee:Week 8:  6 – 9Overall:  63 – 60
Dan:Week 8:  8 – 7Overall:  57 – 66

Survivor Competition

Dan was tripped up last week by going for the Jets against the Patriots, which to me was always a bit of a bold choice and I was able to then equalise with the Eagles beating the Steelers. This week Dan is understandably backing the Dolphins to beat the Bears, whilst my best option seems to be the Patriots welcoming the Colts.

Current Score

Gee: 4
Dan: 4

Week 9 Selection:

Gee:    Dolphins @ Bears
Dan:    Colts @ Patriots

Early Games:

The Bengals definitely need to turn things around this week, and the line is surprisingly high considering the injury even if the Panthers are strugglig. The Vikings visiting Washington could be surprisingly competitive whilst the game of the early slate could well be the Chargers visiting the Falcons.

Chargers @ Falcons (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Dolphins @ Bears (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Panthers @ Bengals (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Packers @ Lions (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Pakers

Colts @ Patriots (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Bills @ Jets (+13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Vikings @ Washington (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Late Games:

Both the Rams and the Buccaneers look so different from last season and are really struggling whilst the Seahawks visiting the Cardinals is probably the pick of these games. The promise of the first couple of weeks faded quickly for the Jaguars whilst the Raiders have really struggled all season and who knows what will happen this week.

Raiders @ Jaguars (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Rams @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Sunday Night Football:

Titans @ Chiefs (-10.5)

This line is just way too big for me. The Chiefs are good, but the Titans have he knack for winning even if it is ugly, which is down to head coach Mike Vrabel and even if the Chiefs are at home I’m not sure I see them winning by eleven.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Monday Night Football

Ravens @ Saints (+3.5

The week finishes with a Ravens team who are trying to catch up with the best in the AFC by adding Roquan Smith to their defence but who still feel a level behind the Chiefs and Bills because of their offence. The Saints are still competitive in their division but have not been convincing as much as I’m happy to see Andy Dalton playing. The numbers say Saints eve if it feels a bit bold to me.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints