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Competition Thursday: Thanksgiving 2019

28 Thursday Nov 2019

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So Dan’s Dad extended his lead at the top of the picks competition last week as we edge closer to a second consecutive season  win for him unless Dan or I get on a hot-streak.

I would just like to say that I am thankful for all the help and engagement of both 3D and Dan over the years as well as to any of you for reading this, whether you are a long time reader or only recently discovered our little corner of NFL fandom. Anyway, on to the picks as there are games a coming.

Dan’s Dad: Week 12:   8-6 Overall:   97-79
Dan: Week 12:   5-9 Overall:   94-82
Gee: Week 12:   7-7 Overall:   90-86

Bears @ Lions (+2.5)

The 5-6 Chicago Bears have won two out of their last four games but Mitch Trubisky has been wildly inconsistent and frequently plain bad in his third year and so I’m really not sure how the Bears will fare in this trip to play in the Detroit Super Bowl, the Lions’ annual Thanksgiving game. The Lions have the excuse of their franchise quarterback being out with fractures in his back, but they have been underwhelming for much of the season even before having to start Jeff Driskell and now it seems they are down to their third string quarterback as Driskell has surfaced on the injury report with a hamstring injury. I don’t’ exactly feel great about it, but that’s enough for me to reluctantly to give the edge to a team that actually ranks worse by DVOA. Yeah, avoid picking this game if you don’t have to.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:     Bears

Bills @ Cowboys (-6.5)

There is a big difference between these two teams in terms of DVOA, but the Bills have won two more games and whilst their offence is not setting the world alight, their defence is top ten by DVOA and they have clear found a knack for winning. I’m not sure they will definitely win this game, but I feel like this line is too high, partially because of how popular the Cowboys are and so I’m going to take the Bills to keep this game within a touchdown. It is hard to have too much faith in the Cowboys given their up and down season and I don’t trust their coaching staff, but I am looking forward to seeing the Bills and how they fare on the big stage.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Saints @ Falcons (+6.5)

Will the real Falcons please stand up? There was a mini recovery after the bye week for the Atlanta Falcons but that didn’t last into last week’s loss against the Buccaneers. However, the New Orleans Saints will be very motivated to get revenge after their surprise loss to the Falcons in week ten. This line make me nervous as I like the Saints to win as they are a much better team and will definitely be motivate, but divisional games are funny and I’m sure the Falcons are going to put forward their best effort. However, having just lost to the Bucs by thirteen points I can’t quite bring myself to back the Falcons in this one and I just hope I don’t’ regret that.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Week 9 Trivia

‘Well, the only thing that I needed in Week 12 with The Vikings on a bye, was to see the Packers come a cropper against the 49ers and as an early Christmas present it happened leaving The Vikes and the Cheeseheads tied on 8 a piece making for a very interesting final 5 weeks in the regular season and with them facing of in Minneapolis in Wk 16 divisional honours may revolve about that game..

I got to thinking though about what drives fans to pick a particular team. In the US a local preference will dictate many choices, it could be the colours or, radical I know, you may just like the style of play. But with the growth of the game in the UK I wondered if it may be the result of where people have holidayed. That may explain the Miami factor but looking at the crowds at the International series I think all 32 franchises, and more, are represented so I’m at a loss as to why backwater towns get a following.

I do remember visiting Chicago with Dan 11 years ago and took in a high scoring game at Soldier Field. The stadium and the experience generally was amazing but after the game we retreated to a sports bar in our hotel near Grant Park. Remember that only a quarter of Americans possess a passport those we met in that bar were amazed that two Brits were taking on an NFL road trip. I don’t think they realised how big the game was getting over here, let alone that it would be knocking on the door of its own franchise inside 10 – 15 years. Therein lies another question, If (when) there was a UK franchise would all the brits forsake their current teams in favour of the new kid on the block. Somehow I think not.

In trivia for week 12 I asked………   

In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?

There are a number of great names it could have been and Dan Marino would have been as good as any, but remember I am a devious so and so and the answer was Brett Favre the previous year and such was his strength in a very competitive position.

So sadly no points this week leaving us on Gee 11 v Dan 14.

Right this week we roll into Houston and the problem is this:

In 2002 The Texans became only the 2nd expansion team to win its inaugural game. Against whom?

The only clue I will give is to do with matching time zones but I know that wont help them at all

See you next time.’

What Happens Next?

28 Wednesday Nov 2018

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Things managed to get worse for the Bengals this weekend and I will be writing about that, but I thought I would zip round the league first before letting rip to give those who don’t wish to indulge my reaction to the problems besetting the orange and black something to read.

There weren’t as many as in the previous week, but the NFL still managed to have four games separated by a field goal and a couple of upsets.

I’m going to start with a game I didn’t see, but on Monday night the Houston Texans won their eighth straight game to remain two games clear at the top of the AFC South. I suspect they are possibly the division leader I have written about the least this season and I will need to watch them again soon to get a better idea of what the transformation looks like. The obvious thing might be to take a look at their top five defence by DVOA that has JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney fit and combining for eighteen and a half sacks, but they are also getting enough out of an offence ranked twenty-first by DVOA to win and with them finding a way to run the ball and win with Deshaun Watson back at quarterback that side of the ball might be the more interesting study. Still, they have definitely established themselves as team worthy of more attention and I hope this paragraph doesn’t jinx them!

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a somewhat less successful weekend, losing on the road to the Denver Broncos. It feels like at least once a season the Steelers lose a game on the road they shouldn’t and as much as I admire what Mike Tomlin achieves in Pittsburgh this could once again lose them a shot of a playoff bye and home advantage later in the playoffs. They have a big game next week against the LA Chargers who got themselves back on track with a big win over the Arizona Cardinals and this meeting of AFC teams looks like it will be one of the highlights of the week thirteen.

With the Rams and Chiefs on their bye week, the New Orleans Saints were the only one of the top tier teams (according to me) in action in week twelve and ran out convincing winners in the evening Thanksgiving game against the Atlanta Falcon who will have to regroup in the offseason having been broken by injury. The New England Patriots got a healthy enough to win over the New York Jets but even though Rob Gronkowski returned to the field, he does not seem to be the same dominant tight end of previous years. Of their five remaining opponents the Patriots only have to face two with winning records and I will be very interested to see how they do hosting the Vikings next week and when they travel to Pittsburgh in week fifteen. I should also mention that the Patriots are yet to play the Dolphins in Miami where the Pats have lost in four out of the last five visits.

The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions comfortably despite not being able to start Mitchell Trubisky and that leaves us with the NFC East as the only division that I haven’t discussed the division leaders. With Washington falling to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and the Eagles scraping a win over the New York Giants on Sunday things remain tight in the east. The Cowboys have managed to get themselves equal to Washington but have the daunting task of hosting the Saints this Thursday night, whilst Washington and Philadelphia have the first of their two games against each other this weekend. Given the injuries to both Washington and Philadelphia most people seem to think the momentum is with the Cowboys right now and it certainly seems like the contest is going to go down to the wire in terms of winning the division. It is also worth noting that whilst the arguments about value are still valid, the Cowboys trade for Amari Cooper does appear to be making a difference and his breakaway touchdowns was pretty much the difference between them and Washington on Thursday.

This is your two game warning before I dig into the mess that is the Bengals right now.

The two games on Sunday I enjoyed watching were the Seattle Seahawks winning out over the Carolina Panthers despite the Panthers gaining well over double the amount of yards on the ground and seemingly moving the ball with more ease. However, costly failures in the red zone and some interesting decisions to go for it on fourth down led the Panthers to their third straight loss. I don’t know if a division game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the right situation to try to turn things round, but they really need to get a win thus week if they want to stay in the race for a wildcard place.

Finally, whilst looking good for stretches of the Packers’ game against the Minnesota Vikings, it appears that Aaron Rodgers might be mortal after all. I would suggest the problem is more that the offence he has been given doesn’t seem to have evolved under Mike McCarthy in recent years despite the developments round the league, but after a good start that saw the Packers go 14-7 up at the start of the second quarter, they failed to score again until near the end of the fourth quarter and ultimately fell 17-24. At 4-6-1 the playoffs are not completely out of reach but they would have to run the table and hope to get lucky. The big sticking point in the final five games that jumps out on the schedule is their visit to Chicago in week fifteen, especially as the Packers have gone 0-6 on the road.

Okay, so here we go. Final warning.

So the Bengals season is hanging by a thread and only the most optimistic of super fans can even contemplate things turning around. Not only did the Bengals lose the battle of Ohio to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, but they lost Andy Dalton to thumb injury for the rest of the season. Now as it happens Jeff Driskell is pretty good as backup quarterbacks go and it’s not as if the Bengals were competing for the Super Bowl, but there are real problems with this team which stretch further than the injury list. The offence still ranks sixteenth despite the injuries that have hampered this side of the ball but the defence have been woeful all season. The Bengals have already fired one defensive co-ordinator and there are now questions yet again about whether it is time for Marvin Lewis to step aside. Now I do think it is time for this to happen, in fact it might have been time a couple of seasons ago but I understand the reluctance to do so and it does make me nervous. Marvin Lewis took a perennially underachieving team and made them respectable, frequently one of the most talented rosters in the league who went to the playoffs five seasons in a row between 2011-15 but this looks to be the third season that the Bengals miss out and something has to change. However, as much I would like to see an inventive offensive minded coach take over the franchise as that seems to be what is required to win with the current set of rules, replacing Lewis worries me because of the tendency for Mike Brown to hire people he knows and the rumours that Hue Jackson is a potential candidate that surfaced over the weekend.

Yes Hue Jackson, who has a 11-44-1 overall record and who just went 3-36-1 with the Cleveland Browns. Now I’m not necessarily saying he’s a bad coach, he did great things with the Bengals’ offence as a coordinator before he left for Cleveland, but I’ve seen nothing that makes me think that as a head coach he could turn things round. Look at how the Browns have been doing in recent weeks. Not to mention the shots that Baker Mayfield has been taking both on the field and after the game in the press. There is still a lot of talent on this roster, and it might just need a new voice to turn things round or it could need more of a re-build but who knows if the Bengals infrastructure above the head coach can facilitate such efforts. I have no idea what happens next and that’s what makes me nervous. So much of an NFL franchise’s success lies in getting the behind the scenes right to get the right coach with the roster at the right moment, and yes with the right quarterback. It appears that as Bengals fans, we live in interesting times….

Anyway, I shall leave you with a comment from Dan as we were discussing quarterbacks after his misguided shot at the red rifle yesterday.

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Competition Thursday: 2018 Thanksgiving

22 Thursday Nov 2018

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So happy Thanksgiving to all those marking the day, and welcome to the start of week twelve and another Competition Thursday!

We saw some changes in the picks competition as I scrambled to the top of the league and Dan closed the gap to me and his dad. I need to sit down and do a proper tot-up in the trivia competition, although I feel like regardless of who gets the most points out of Dan and I, the real winner is Dan’s dad given how often he’s stumped us. Also, I’m hoping to mock up some of the logos in the colours of the Vikings and Dolphins to show what could be at stake.

We have to get this post up early today as games start this afternoon so with no further ado, let’s get started with this year’s Thanksgiving games.

Gee:     Week 11   6-7              Overall   81-80
Dan:     Week 11   7-6              Overall   77-84

Bears @ Lions (+4.5)

The first game of the day sees the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears and I know how I want to pick this game but I do have a slight hesitation. The Bears proved something to me last week with their win against the Vikings and whilst I think they are a tier below the Saints and Rams in the NFC, they have the third best record in the conference and deserve to go into this divisional game as favourites. The Detroit Lions are coming off a narrow win against the Panthers that was helped by Graham Gano missing a field goal and an extra point that must have contributed to the decision of Ron Riviera to go for the failed two point conversion at the end of the game that handed the win to Detroit. The Lions will want to play tough in this biggest of national games, but the Bears beat them by ten two weeks ago and so here is my pause because this is just enough points to make me hesitate. However, in the end I’m going to lay the points and trust the Bears. Don’t let me down now.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Washington @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight and suddenly stand an improved chance in the NFC East thanks to the injury to Alex Smith. In fact Washington has been beset by injuries all this season but have managed to keep finding ways to muddy up games and keep themselves not just competitive but atop their division. However, I can see why people have started to favour the Cowboys to make a run but only one of their wins has been by more than a touchdown this season and so that really does make me pause in this one. The unknowns in Washington make me nervous, and on a short week it helps that Colt McCoy has been there four years but I’m really not sure if this line is too big, particularly as Washington currently rank better than Dallas by DVOA. This is a heated rivalry shown in prime time with the nation watching and given the familiarity of both teams, I’m going to back the underdogs and pick Washington keep it closer than eight points.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Falcons @ Saints (-13.5)

The Atlanta Falcons had a minor surge a few weeks ago, but they are still very injured and having lost to the Browns and Cowboys back to back it is hard to see them turning things round in New Orleans. This is a very big line but the Saints have scored ninety-nine points in their last two games, and in the next one back they beat the Rams by ten and so I’m going to swing for the fences and say Drew Brees and crew keep rolling, particularly as I don’t see head coach Sean Payton letting up on a divisional opponent in prime time.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Week Twelve Trivia

‘As we near the third trimester of the season the Trivia competition has once again got the pundits thinking – and that is the whole point really.

OK, for week 11 I pitched a curved ball and asked how many teams do NOT have a Professional Cheerleading squad.

Of the 32 teams is it A, 0 – 5;             B, 6 – 10;          C, 11 – 15;       or D,  16+

Using multiple choice was not to suggest that they were struggling, but just that it is another format which could add interest.

Gee made some excellent logic and had he added The Bills and The Lions he would have had a clean sweep of the 7 teams who don’t.

Dan was partially right when he spotted a potential wording issue by my asking for a Professional squad. Well that was not me being tricksy but to cover the Packers who use a Collegiate squad, not professional, when needed.

So the answer is B which covers the 7 teams.

Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers,  and the Green Bay Packers (with their Collegiate squad)

Moving onto Week 12 this should not prove too taxing and I’d like to know for which college did Peyton Manning play?

Easy, right? Well maybe Week 13 might prove a more sticky task.’

Oh, was there Football on this week?

20 Tuesday Nov 2018

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Week 11 is now in the books (I miss saying that on the Podcast!) and before it even started, people were calling it the best week of the year so far, which I must say was a little offensive to a fan of a team who were on their Bye!

On a serious note though, it was an absolute cracker, and has put the cat amongst the pigeons again when it comes to the Pick’em competition! Considering he was leading the league going into the week, a score of just 4 points for my dad means he’s dropped to second and all three of us have really closed up going into week 12. Gee’s decision to put the colours of the blog on the line was an inspired choice! I hope he’s ready for an Aqua and Orange website (Fins up!). Lets just not mention Dad’s Trivia quiz!

So, to the action on the pitch and the thing which was most incredible was the fact that 11 of the 13 games this week finished with 5 or less points separating the teams. The big game of the week was on Monday night, in the relocated Mexico game, which saw the Chiefs face the Rams, both of whom went into the week with 9-1 records. A slight amount of shine was taken off it in the move back to LA, and even more in that the Seahawks beating the Packers on Thursday meant that a Rams win wouldn’t quite make them the first team to clinch a playoff berth, but the game itself didn’t disappoint.

While in truth, the Rams spent almost the entire game in the bigger half of the scoreboard, it was still an extremely exciting contest, and a late charge from the Chiefs very nearly saw them take the win. It finished 51-54, making it the highest scoring Monday Night game in history, and if you’ve not watched it yet, I’d seriously suggest going back and checking it out, even if you can just get access to the highlights, because lets be honest, there were a lot of them!

It was especially good if you’re a fan of the passing game. The game saw just shy of 900 passing yards, with either Tyreek Hill (215 yards), Travis Kelce (127 yards) or Brandin Cooks (107 yards) on the receiving end of nearly half of them. And there were even 8 sacks to be seen for the more defensively minded of you… I’m looking at you, Gee! [How you not mention Aaron Donald? He was immense in this game – Ed.] Oh, and it’s made my bet chart look like this:

Elsewhere, the Saints continued their absolute dominance of the NFC with a thumping victory by 48 points to 7 over the defending Super Bowl champions, and the Colts (of all people!) put on a footballing masterclass in their game over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday night.

All of these close results are showing themselves in some very close divisions as we go into the final stretch too. The NFC East is often a division which runs right into the final weeks, and this year looks to be no exception with 3 wins between the whole division. It’s at this time of year where we start looking at who might find themselves continuing their season into next year, and there are 5 teams all on 5-5, making a play for the final wildcard position in the AFC. I’m pleased to say that both my Dolphins and Gee’s Bengals are two of those teams. Looking at the fixtures coming up over the next 6 weeks, I’d rather be supporting the team in Black and Orange…

Current Conference Standings, courtesy of pro-football-reference.com

We’re treated to a number of early games this week with the Thanksgiving matches taking place on Thursday, which I know Gee will be happy about as he’ll be taking his annual Thanksgiving day off work, I’ve no doubt! [Yeup, although I am starting the day at the dentist… – Ed.} And I’m so ready for a Dolphins game again… I must be a glutton for punishment, I know.

So, who do you think is going to be playing well into the new year? Anyone who hasn’t been there for a while? And at the other end, who’ll end up propping up the league? Get in touch on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time!

@TWFDan

Trying to Make a Plan Stick

30 Thursday Nov 2017

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A combination of the Thanksgiving games and an ill-timed support call at the weekend got me thinking about the obsession with routine that many NFL head coaches seem to have.

I think the desire for routine was part of the reason that John Harbaugh was comfortable in complaining about his team’s trip to London earlier this year.

An NFL head coach is used to micromanaging. I’m sure there has to be a degree of flexibility built in, but a coach has his plan for the entire season prepared before it starts in terms of practise, travel, and everything it takes to play a game of football. This is much easier to implement if you are working in a familiar routine, particularly if you have a heavy schedule and any NFL coach, yet alone the one in charge of an entire team works an awful lot of hours.

One of the reasons that Bruce Arian’s is a favourite coach of mine is that he often talks about how important it is to maintain a work life balance and that if he hears of any of his coaches missing an important family occasion then he’ll fire them. However, in the ultra-competitive world of professional sports people are always looking for advantages and with the complexity of tactics that make up an NFL game plan you can see why coaches put in as many hours as they do.

I know from personal experience how if you don’t have a focussed plan, that you can spend a huge amount of time watching the coaching tape of a single game, and comparatively I know nothing about football. Not that I let that stop me from commenting about the game or coaching.

However, I don’t pretend that coaching is easy, and whilst I can and do share frustrations or wonder what was going on, something I heard Michael Wilbon of ESPN say really struck a chord with me.

He was talking about coaching and given how prepared these coaches are, the hours they put in, what interference and distractions must be going on for them to make the decisions they do.

Take for instance the Buffalo Bills. They have a quarterback in Tyrod Taylor that the franchise has not committed to, and with the GM and coaching regime change and apparently there still being no faith you begin to wonder what influence the owners are having. Certainly the decision to start Nathan Peterman ended badly and with Taylor back under centre this last week, the Bills were able to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.

I had a lot of time for what Sean McDermott did this season with a team that had move a lot of players on yet was still found a way to win, but for many the decision to sit a quarterback who didn’t turn the ball over for a rookie because Peterman gave them the best chance to win was fireable given how badly Peterman played. However, with a win McDermott at least stabilised the situation and what we don’t know is how many people were involved in the decision, but when it comes to a starting quarterback I wonder how many voices are involved.

Certainly with the announcement that Eli Manning is to have his starting streak of over two hundred games for the New York Giants ended because he is being sat for Geno Smith I start to wonder who was involved in the decision apart from Ben McAdoo. I’m not saying that anyone else told him to do it, but with all that is going on in New York, with the press being less than impressed with McAdoo’s handling of the team – what influenced him? The play of Eli Manning has not looked that great for a while now, and predates the loss of Odel Beckham earlier in the season, but what is he hoping to gain with his two time Super Bowl winner on the side lines.

I wonder how you get into the position to keep making the best decisions. How you have to be in lock step with all the people round you. I know how some approach it as coaches like Pete Carroll or Bruce Arians will write a book or talk about it, whilst someone like Bill Belichick reveals as little as possible.

However, I can easily see how being in the head coach’s office of an NFL franchise could be very different once you’re in there to how even an experienced coaches thought it might be.

And how only a tiny change could derail the best laid but highly complex plans.

So we move to a game featuring a coach who very much appears to be on the hot seat after a quick glance at last week’s results..

Gee:      Week 12   8-8                     Overall   97-80
Dan:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   94-83

Washington @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have really struggled over the last few weeks, and the reaction of their coaching staff does not inspire confidence with a lack of creative scheming not helping a group of skills players who have not been getting it done with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspended. It maybe that Washington are so injured that they are going to lose on the road, but with both teams having played on Thursday of last week, I’m backing Washington in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Quick Thanksgiving Picks

23 Thursday Nov 2017

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I’m having a compressed week for reasons I shan’t bore you with, but I am thankful to Dan for his continued help with this site and producing the podcast. I don’t know where football will be in the coming years, but I still enjoy the games and I am thankful for all this blog has taught me about writing, and reminding me that no one really knows anything. Some may argue that our picks are evidence of this, but at least we both have picked more right than wrong this season.

And so, onwards to the games!

Gee:      Week 11   7-7                     Overall   89-72
Dan:       Week 11   9-5                     Overall   85-76

Vikings @ Lions (+2.5)

This should be an entertaining start to the Thanksgiving games with the Lions welcoming the division leading Minnesota Vikings to Detroit. The Lions have almost quietly got themselves to 6-4 but this will be a sterner test than the Bears offered last week. The Vikings have been good on both sides of the ball, with the emergence of Adam Thielen as a partner to Stefon Diggs giving Case Keenum the receivers he needs to amass a 7-2 record despite starting the season as his team’s backup quarterback. The Lions have a better quarterback in Matt Stafford but I think they are going to struggle in this game as the Vikings really seem to have found their form. I could be caught out as the Lions have won their last three meetings but I think the Vikings should be too good.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings.
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chargers @ Cowboys (-0.5)

The Dallas Cowboys look to have left tackle Tyron Smith back from injury for this game, which they will need if they are to slow down the fearsome edge rushers the LA Chargers possess. The problem is that they are still going to be missing linebacker Sean Lee who has a huge effect on how the Cowboys play defence with his ability to get everyone lined up. I suspect that the combination of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will cause protection issues for the Cowboys offence and combine this with Lee being out and I’m giving the edge to Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Giants @ Washington (-7.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game as Washington has an enormous injury list, but the New York Giants do not exactly inspire confidence even if they did manage to grind out an ugly win against the Chiefs in horrible weather last week. I’m not sure I can see the Giants winning again, but I have a feeling that it will be a closer game than this line suggests so I’m going to back the Giants for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Thanksgiving Roundup

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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So rather than trying to cover all three games fully I’ll go through the points that leapt out at me over the course of the three Thanksgiving games.

Detriot Lions 16
Minnesota Vikings 13

This was a close game, but throughout it seemed to me that the Lions were moving the ball more consistently on offensive even if they did fall behind in the fourth quarter again. It’s getting to be a feature of the Lions’ season, but once again they managed to come from behind to win.

That said, the Vikings defence is looking back to something like its form from the start of the season, but the offence is still struggling. The loss of receiver Stefon Diggs hurt the Vikings, although it is nice to see Cordarrelle Patterson more on offence, but they still don’t have a running game they can rely on yet and the offensive line is likely going to remain a weakness. I will be curious to see what they do at the end of year in terms of both the line and quarterback, but I expect them to be competitive at least for their remaining games.

The Lions have done enough to lead their division in a down year for the Packers and a very troubled one for the Vikings. The offence continues to get points when they need one, but they are hampered by the defence. I can see them getting into the playoffs, but I think they will struggle against teams like the Seahawks and Cowboys. Still, it seems that everyone, including myself, has had to reassess Matthew Stafford in the wake of his late game heroics this year.

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington 26

The score was a lot closer than the game was thanks to a late surge by Washington in the fourth quarter, but in truth the Giants were able to dominate this game throughout.

That said, there was a period where the Washington defence was doing a credible job of bottling up Ezekiel Elliott, but the problem is that the Cowboys will not be deterred and with the offensive line they have, you may be able to slow Elliott down but it already seems that he will eventually have his way. The Cowboys ran for one hundred and sixty-three yards in this game, with Elliot just shy of one hundred yards on only twenty carries. That kind of number should help him be fresher going into the end of the season, and Dak Prescott picked up a further thirty-nine yards on the ground. The rookie quarterback’s numbers don’t look spectacular, but he continued to drive the Cowboys efficiently and they have the best record in the NFL for a reason.

Washington’s defensive line did looked okay for large parts of this game, but the offence seemed to struggle for sections of this game to keep drives going.  They lost despite dominating time of possession and total yards in this game, but it should be noted that Dustin Hopkins only made two of his four field goals. It is too easy to say that if he had made them that Washington would have won the game, but it would surely have affected the flow of the game and should not be discounted. There is no shame in going to the team with the best record in the league and losing, but Washington will need to get back to winning ways if they want to stay in contention for the playoffs. Still with the way the offence is playing they stand a fighting chance.

Indianapolis Colts 7
Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a very straight forward game for the Steelers, which always looked likely to be the case once Andrew Luck went into the concussion protocol.

The Steelers did not suffer a dip against opposition they should beat as is sometimes the case, and it was very much the Steeler’s triplet show with Le’Veon Bell running for one hundred and twenty yards with a touchdown, and Antonio Brown catching three touchdowns with just under one hundred yards. Ben Roethlisberger may have only thrown for two hundred and twenty-one yards, but with three touchdowns and a seventy percent completion rate I’m sure he will be okay with the performance. Their defence also put in a good shift, and they will be hopeful of keeping pace with the Ravens in the race for the AFC North.

The Colts could get very little going, and their solitary touchdown owes much to a fake punt play that went for thirty-five yards when punter Pat McAfee completed his pass to Erik Swoope. Although the Colts recorded ninety-one yards from twenty-one rush attempts, this masks Frank Gore’s fifteen carries that yielded only twenty-eight yards. In a game with a career backup starting, the Colts needed more help from their run game to balance their offence and didn’t get it. I didn’t think that Scott Tolzien looked terrible, but he threw several balls high as well as two interceptions chasing a game that the Colts were never really in. I’m sure everyone in Indianapolis will be keeping their fingers crossed that Andrew Luck can make a quick return.

 

Overall we had two competitive games, and one complete blowout, but I enjoyed all three, even if I didn’t spend all day watching them with a huge meal to keep me going.

NFL Week 13: Thanksgiving Roundup

29 Saturday Nov 2014

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I had a really great time watching all three Thanksgiving games unfold, smiling as I enjoyed the football and watched all three of my picks go wrong. The games were interesting if one sided in all three contests so let’s take a look at what happened:

Bears @ Lions

The first thing that struck me about this game as I was watching it was that neither team was running the ball effectively. But whilst the Lions persevered with it and eventually had some success having established their passing game, the Bears ran for only eight yards from thirteen attempts and were variously using screens and passes to Forte out of the backfield as an alternative.

The problem with this is that Jay Cutler is not a rhythm passer, and if you are doing this then you are not making the best use of his arm talent. Only one of his two interceptions came at a point that truly affected the game, but the Bears simply did not move the ball well enough throughout this game to compete.

The Bears did move the ball effectively in their opening drive without attempting a single run, and thanks to a Matt Stafford fumble giving them good field position, they finished the first quarter with a fourteen-three lead, but they would only score a third quarter field goal for the rest of the game.

I have written before about the dangers of changing your mind when making picks, I wrote about I thought the Lions offence could get back on track and that I was worried about Jay Cutler’s play against this defence, but I changed my mind listening to other people talk about the game. Verily it played out how I thought and in the end the Lions won very comfortably.

The one thing I will remember with the Lions offence is that their o-line is not very good. The Bears have not been rushing the passer that well this season, but Jared Allen was getting consistent pressure to go with his pair of sacks. Combine this with it being Matthew Stafford’s first year in a new system and you can possibly see why he has struggled. He spread the ball around in this game and the Lions have some very winnable games coming up so we will have to see how they go.

Eagles @ Cowboys

This was a really interesting game. I thought that the Cowboys would win as I had more faith in the Cowboys o-line and Tony Romo than in Mark Sanchez, but I was wrong.

The Eagles defence played very well in this game, and although Tony Romo had a lot of time behind the Cowboys excellent o-line, they could not sustain drives. I put part of this down to the play calling as they were very conservative and having established that they would run on first down predominantly, they could have tried to use play action but didn’t. However, the other problem was that Romo just didn’t play that well, he missed throws and only managed a couple of long passes whilst racking up two interceptions and no touchdowns.

The Eagles on the other hand ran the ball very effectively, and whilst I could still see the things that worry me about Sanchez, he was efficient throwing for two hundred yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys’ defence were able to hold the Eagles to field goals for four drives, but struggled to get stops and the different in the pace of the offence showed up with the Eagles running seventy-five plays to the Cowboys’ fifty-eight despite their only being fifty seconds between their time of procession.

It appears that whilst they Eagles are a step down from the likes of the Packers or Patriots, but they’re also a step above the Cowboys who I am a little worried about. They did not look good in this game and I can see them having problems when they play the Colts and have to visit the Eagles

Seahawks @ 49ers

Sometimes you get a pick wrong and it was beyond your control, and sometime you feel like an idiot. I knew that the 49ers were struggling on offence but they were horrible in this game.

The much vaunted o-line from last year has regressed drastically, and Colin Kaepernick’s play has gone backwards too. This team managed a paltry 164yards of total offence and were unable to get either the run or pass working in this game. I don’t think it is a good idea to just avoid Richard Sherman’s side of the field like the Packers did in the opening game of the season, but you can’t afford to throw the kind of balls Kaepernick did for his pair of interceptions. In fact, he’s probably lucky he was only picked off twice as he looked horrible throwing the ball all game.

However, the San Francisco defence looked as good as their offence looked bad. They were not getting much time off the field thanks to the offence but after a touchdown in the first quarter, they held the Seahawks to field goals for the rest of the game.

The problem for the 49ers is that part of their difficulties on offence is their quarterback, but this is very much not the case for the Seahawks. They are just as reliant on the run game for production, but this is because of the quality of skill players Russell Wilson has to throw to. However, his ability to escape the rush is as good as anyone in the league and he seems to have a great feel for when to run and when to get rid of the ball. I get the feeling that receivers will be a point of emphasis for the Seahawks in the offseason.

Overall, I think that the 49ers will fall short of the playoffs and that there could well be an overhaul of the coaching staff. This would not be a surprise given that Jim Harbaugh is already half out the door thanks to his broken relationship with owernership/management, but something has to be done about the offence as Greg Roman is simply not getting it done with that unit.

The Seahawks look to be coming together at the right time, but there are structural issues with the roster and whilst I don’t think anyone will relish playing them, they are a couple of levels below the monster they were last season.