Tag Archives: Thanksgiving Football

Trying to Make a Plan Stick

30 Thursday Nov 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A combination of the Thanksgiving games and an ill-timed support call at the weekend got me thinking about the obsession with routine that many NFL head coaches seem to have.

I think the desire for routine was part of the reason that John Harbaugh was comfortable in complaining about his team’s trip to London earlier this year.

An NFL head coach is used to micromanaging. I’m sure there has to be a degree of flexibility built in, but a coach has his plan for the entire season prepared before it starts in terms of practise, travel, and everything it takes to play a game of football. This is much easier to implement if you are working in a familiar routine, particularly if you have a heavy schedule and any NFL coach, yet alone the one in charge of an entire team works an awful lot of hours.

One of the reasons that Bruce Arian’s is a favourite coach of mine is that he often talks about how important it is to maintain a work life balance and that if he hears of any of his coaches missing an important family occasion then he’ll fire them. However, in the ultra-competitive world of professional sports people are always looking for advantages and with the complexity of tactics that make up an NFL game plan you can see why coaches put in as many hours as they do.

I know from personal experience how if you don’t have a focussed plan, that you can spend a huge amount of time watching the coaching tape of a single game, and comparatively I know nothing about football. Not that I let that stop me from commenting about the game or coaching.

However, I don’t pretend that coaching is easy, and whilst I can and do share frustrations or wonder what was going on, something I heard Michael Wilbon of ESPN say really struck a chord with me.

He was talking about coaching and given how prepared these coaches are, the hours they put in, what interference and distractions must be going on for them to make the decisions they do.

Take for instance the Buffalo Bills. They have a quarterback in Tyrod Taylor that the franchise has not committed to, and with the GM and coaching regime change and apparently there still being no faith you begin to wonder what influence the owners are having. Certainly the decision to start Nathan Peterman ended badly and with Taylor back under centre this last week, the Bills were able to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.

I had a lot of time for what Sean McDermott did this season with a team that had move a lot of players on yet was still found a way to win, but for many the decision to sit a quarterback who didn’t turn the ball over for a rookie because Peterman gave them the best chance to win was fireable given how badly Peterman played. However, with a win McDermott at least stabilised the situation and what we don’t know is how many people were involved in the decision, but when it comes to a starting quarterback I wonder how many voices are involved.

Certainly with the announcement that Eli Manning is to have his starting streak of over two hundred games for the New York Giants ended because he is being sat for Geno Smith I start to wonder who was involved in the decision apart from Ben McAdoo. I’m not saying that anyone else told him to do it, but with all that is going on in New York, with the press being less than impressed with McAdoo’s handling of the team – what influenced him? The play of Eli Manning has not looked that great for a while now, and predates the loss of Odel Beckham earlier in the season, but what is he hoping to gain with his two time Super Bowl winner on the side lines.

I wonder how you get into the position to keep making the best decisions. How you have to be in lock step with all the people round you. I know how some approach it as coaches like Pete Carroll or Bruce Arians will write a book or talk about it, whilst someone like Bill Belichick reveals as little as possible.

However, I can easily see how being in the head coach’s office of an NFL franchise could be very different once you’re in there to how even an experienced coaches thought it might be.

And how only a tiny change could derail the best laid but highly complex plans.

So we move to a game featuring a coach who very much appears to be on the hot seat after a quick glance at last week’s results..

Gee:      Week 12   8-8                     Overall   97-80
Dan:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   94-83

Washington @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have really struggled over the last few weeks, and the reaction of their coaching staff does not inspire confidence with a lack of creative scheming not helping a group of skills players who have not been getting it done with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspended. It maybe that Washington are so injured that they are going to lose on the road, but with both teams having played on Thursday of last week, I’m backing Washington in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Advertisements

Quick Thanksgiving Picks

23 Thursday Nov 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

I’m having a compressed week for reasons I shan’t bore you with, but I am thankful to Dan for his continued help with this site and producing the podcast. I don’t know where football will be in the coming years, but I still enjoy the games and I am thankful for all this blog has taught me about writing, and reminding me that no one really knows anything. Some may argue that our picks are evidence of this, but at least we both have picked more right than wrong this season.

And so, onwards to the games!

Gee:      Week 11   7-7                     Overall   89-72
Dan:       Week 11   9-5                     Overall   85-76

Vikings @ Lions (+2.5)

This should be an entertaining start to the Thanksgiving games with the Lions welcoming the division leading Minnesota Vikings to Detroit. The Lions have almost quietly got themselves to 6-4 but this will be a sterner test than the Bears offered last week. The Vikings have been good on both sides of the ball, with the emergence of Adam Thielen as a partner to Stefon Diggs giving Case Keenum the receivers he needs to amass a 7-2 record despite starting the season as his team’s backup quarterback. The Lions have a better quarterback in Matt Stafford but I think they are going to struggle in this game as the Vikings really seem to have found their form. I could be caught out as the Lions have won their last three meetings but I think the Vikings should be too good.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings.
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chargers @ Cowboys (-0.5)

The Dallas Cowboys look to have left tackle Tyron Smith back from injury for this game, which they will need if they are to slow down the fearsome edge rushers the LA Chargers possess. The problem is that they are still going to be missing linebacker Sean Lee who has a huge effect on how the Cowboys play defence with his ability to get everyone lined up. I suspect that the combination of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will cause protection issues for the Cowboys offence and combine this with Lee being out and I’m giving the edge to Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Giants @ Washington (-7.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game as Washington has an enormous injury list, but the New York Giants do not exactly inspire confidence even if they did manage to grind out an ugly win against the Chiefs in horrible weather last week. I’m not sure I can see the Giants winning again, but I have a feeling that it will be a closer game than this line suggests so I’m going to back the Giants for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Thanksgiving Roundup

27 Sunday Nov 2016

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

So rather than trying to cover all three games fully I’ll go through the points that leapt out at me over the course of the three Thanksgiving games.

Detriot Lions 16
Minnesota Vikings 13

This was a close game, but throughout it seemed to me that the Lions were moving the ball more consistently on offensive even if they did fall behind in the fourth quarter again. It’s getting to be a feature of the Lions’ season, but once again they managed to come from behind to win.

That said, the Vikings defence is looking back to something like its form from the start of the season, but the offence is still struggling. The loss of receiver Stefon Diggs hurt the Vikings, although it is nice to see Cordarrelle Patterson more on offence, but they still don’t have a running game they can rely on yet and the offensive line is likely going to remain a weakness. I will be curious to see what they do at the end of year in terms of both the line and quarterback, but I expect them to be competitive at least for their remaining games.

The Lions have done enough to lead their division in a down year for the Packers and a very troubled one for the Vikings. The offence continues to get points when they need one, but they are hampered by the defence. I can see them getting into the playoffs, but I think they will struggle against teams like the Seahawks and Cowboys. Still, it seems that everyone, including myself, has had to reassess Matthew Stafford in the wake of his late game heroics this year.

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington 26

The score was a lot closer than the game was thanks to a late surge by Washington in the fourth quarter, but in truth the Giants were able to dominate this game throughout.

That said, there was a period where the Washington defence was doing a credible job of bottling up Ezekiel Elliott, but the problem is that the Cowboys will not be deterred and with the offensive line they have, you may be able to slow Elliott down but it already seems that he will eventually have his way. The Cowboys ran for one hundred and sixty-three yards in this game, with Elliot just shy of one hundred yards on only twenty carries. That kind of number should help him be fresher going into the end of the season, and Dak Prescott picked up a further thirty-nine yards on the ground. The rookie quarterback’s numbers don’t look spectacular, but he continued to drive the Cowboys efficiently and they have the best record in the NFL for a reason.

Washington’s defensive line did looked okay for large parts of this game, but the offence seemed to struggle for sections of this game to keep drives going.  They lost despite dominating time of possession and total yards in this game, but it should be noted that Dustin Hopkins only made two of his four field goals. It is too easy to say that if he had made them that Washington would have won the game, but it would surely have affected the flow of the game and should not be discounted. There is no shame in going to the team with the best record in the league and losing, but Washington will need to get back to winning ways if they want to stay in contention for the playoffs. Still with the way the offence is playing they stand a fighting chance.

Indianapolis Colts 7
Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a very straight forward game for the Steelers, which always looked likely to be the case once Andrew Luck went into the concussion protocol.

The Steelers did not suffer a dip against opposition they should beat as is sometimes the case, and it was very much the Steeler’s triplet show with Le’Veon Bell running for one hundred and twenty yards with a touchdown, and Antonio Brown catching three touchdowns with just under one hundred yards. Ben Roethlisberger may have only thrown for two hundred and twenty-one yards, but with three touchdowns and a seventy percent completion rate I’m sure he will be okay with the performance. Their defence also put in a good shift, and they will be hopeful of keeping pace with the Ravens in the race for the AFC North.

The Colts could get very little going, and their solitary touchdown owes much to a fake punt play that went for thirty-five yards when punter Pat McAfee completed his pass to Erik Swoope. Although the Colts recorded ninety-one yards from twenty-one rush attempts, this masks Frank Gore’s fifteen carries that yielded only twenty-eight yards. In a game with a career backup starting, the Colts needed more help from their run game to balance their offence and didn’t get it. I didn’t think that Scott Tolzien looked terrible, but he threw several balls high as well as two interceptions chasing a game that the Colts were never really in. I’m sure everyone in Indianapolis will be keeping their fingers crossed that Andrew Luck can make a quick return.

 

Overall we had two competitive games, and one complete blowout, but I enjoyed all three, even if I didn’t spend all day watching them with a huge meal to keep me going.

NFL Week 13: Thanksgiving Roundup

29 Saturday Nov 2014

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , ,

I had a really great time watching all three Thanksgiving games unfold, smiling as I enjoyed the football and watched all three of my picks go wrong. The games were interesting if one sided in all three contests so let’s take a look at what happened:

Bears @ Lions

The first thing that struck me about this game as I was watching it was that neither team was running the ball effectively. But whilst the Lions persevered with it and eventually had some success having established their passing game, the Bears ran for only eight yards from thirteen attempts and were variously using screens and passes to Forte out of the backfield as an alternative.

The problem with this is that Jay Cutler is not a rhythm passer, and if you are doing this then you are not making the best use of his arm talent. Only one of his two interceptions came at a point that truly affected the game, but the Bears simply did not move the ball well enough throughout this game to compete.

The Bears did move the ball effectively in their opening drive without attempting a single run, and thanks to a Matt Stafford fumble giving them good field position, they finished the first quarter with a fourteen-three lead, but they would only score a third quarter field goal for the rest of the game.

I have written before about the dangers of changing your mind when making picks, I wrote about I thought the Lions offence could get back on track and that I was worried about Jay Cutler’s play against this defence, but I changed my mind listening to other people talk about the game. Verily it played out how I thought and in the end the Lions won very comfortably.

The one thing I will remember with the Lions offence is that their o-line is not very good. The Bears have not been rushing the passer that well this season, but Jared Allen was getting consistent pressure to go with his pair of sacks. Combine this with it being Matthew Stafford’s first year in a new system and you can possibly see why he has struggled. He spread the ball around in this game and the Lions have some very winnable games coming up so we will have to see how they go.

Eagles @ Cowboys

This was a really interesting game. I thought that the Cowboys would win as I had more faith in the Cowboys o-line and Tony Romo than in Mark Sanchez, but I was wrong.

The Eagles defence played very well in this game, and although Tony Romo had a lot of time behind the Cowboys excellent o-line, they could not sustain drives. I put part of this down to the play calling as they were very conservative and having established that they would run on first down predominantly, they could have tried to use play action but didn’t. However, the other problem was that Romo just didn’t play that well, he missed throws and only managed a couple of long passes whilst racking up two interceptions and no touchdowns.

The Eagles on the other hand ran the ball very effectively, and whilst I could still see the things that worry me about Sanchez, he was efficient throwing for two hundred yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys’ defence were able to hold the Eagles to field goals for four drives, but struggled to get stops and the different in the pace of the offence showed up with the Eagles running seventy-five plays to the Cowboys’ fifty-eight despite their only being fifty seconds between their time of procession.

It appears that whilst they Eagles are a step down from the likes of the Packers or Patriots, but they’re also a step above the Cowboys who I am a little worried about. They did not look good in this game and I can see them having problems when they play the Colts and have to visit the Eagles

Seahawks @ 49ers

Sometimes you get a pick wrong and it was beyond your control, and sometime you feel like an idiot. I knew that the 49ers were struggling on offence but they were horrible in this game.

The much vaunted o-line from last year has regressed drastically, and Colin Kaepernick’s play has gone backwards too. This team managed a paltry 164yards of total offence and were unable to get either the run or pass working in this game. I don’t think it is a good idea to just avoid Richard Sherman’s side of the field like the Packers did in the opening game of the season, but you can’t afford to throw the kind of balls Kaepernick did for his pair of interceptions. In fact, he’s probably lucky he was only picked off twice as he looked horrible throwing the ball all game.

However, the San Francisco defence looked as good as their offence looked bad. They were not getting much time off the field thanks to the offence but after a touchdown in the first quarter, they held the Seahawks to field goals for the rest of the game.

The problem for the 49ers is that part of their difficulties on offence is their quarterback, but this is very much not the case for the Seahawks. They are just as reliant on the run game for production, but this is because of the quality of skill players Russell Wilson has to throw to. However, his ability to escape the rush is as good as anyone in the league and he seems to have a great feel for when to run and when to get rid of the ball. I get the feeling that receivers will be a point of emphasis for the Seahawks in the offseason.

Overall, I think that the 49ers will fall short of the playoffs and that there could well be an overhaul of the coaching staff. This would not be a surprise given that Jim Harbaugh is already half out the door thanks to his broken relationship with owernership/management, but something has to be done about the offence as Greg Roman is simply not getting it done with that unit.

The Seahawks look to be coming together at the right time, but there are structural issues with the roster and whilst I don’t think anyone will relish playing them, they are a couple of levels below the monster they were last season.