Tag Archives: Pittsburgh Steelers

Fallen at the Final Hurdle

29 Sunday Jan 2017

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It’s that strange time of year when the excitement builds towards the Super Bowl and finding out who will be crowned champions, yet we are running out of games. Even sticking to my routine of watching coaching tape of the Super Bowl, there is still only one game left. For many their thoughts are turning to the offseason and the hope of training camp or the joy/worry of draft season. However, I will say goodbye to the two teams who fell just short of the Super Bowl in a pair of noncompetitive conference championship games.

The Green Bay Packers came into the conference championship on a scorching run of form, but sadly fell well short of the Atlanta Falcons, particularly when things fell apart for them in the first half. The Falcons game started the game strongly on offence, able to move the ball and scored on eight of their first nine drafts. However, things could have been different for the Packers if the usually reliable Mason Crosby hadn’t missed a field goal and Aaron Ripkowski hadn’t fumbled the ball as he rumbled towards the Falcons’ twenty yard down. Instead of tying the game, they Packers fell seventeen points behind and they simply were not able to stop falcons or get enough points to get themselves back in the game.

It was a tough way for the Packers to finish their season, which is how it goes for all but one team in the NFL, but this was your archetypal one game too far for them. Too many injuries and too much being asked of Aaron Rodgers. They will go into an offseason of discontent. I’m sure the questions around their defensive coordinator Dom Capers and GM Ted Thompson will resurface, and Rodgers himself has talked about the team needing more urgency next year. There are reasonable questions about whether the Packers are getting the most out of their super star quarterback with the team they are surrounding him with. It would not take a great defence to help get him to the Super Bowl, and improvements to the offensive scheme and the run game would also help. However, if it were not for the Patriots, the idea that a team could compete every year would not be so strong. The problem for the Packers whilst they focus on being a draft and develop team is that they will rarely get a high draft pick with their level of success. There are plenty of players to be found in the draft, but most teams need a high first round pick to acquire that top level of talent. I certainly would not advocate for a strong push in free agency either, but given the success of free agents like Julius Peppers and Jared Cook it would seem that Thompson could afford to add more players via this route if he is capable of finding them.

In the end you would expect the Packers to competitive next year, but there is plenty of work to be done in the offseason.

The Pittsburgh Steelers did what most teams do when the travel to Foxborough and lost to the New England Patriots. They never really got on terms with the Patriots with their offence hampered by the first quarter loss of Le’Veon Bell to a groin injury, whilst the defence played a zone scheme that Tom Brady picked apart as he threw for three hundred and eighty-four yards. There have been a lot of question about the game plan in the following days with players claiming they weren’t ready for the Patriots to play up-tempo or that the Pats hadn’t run a flea flicker this year when they did against Baltimore in week fourteen.

There are a lot of positives about the way the Steelers run their operation and they clearly have a talent for spotting receivers, but they have had more than their share of questionable character guys cause them problems recently. This season Martavis Bryant missed the year due to falling foul of the league’s drug policy, Le’Veon Bell missed three games at the start of the season due to missing drug tests, meanwhile the team had to answer question all week about Antonio Brown live streaming Mike Tomlin’s post game locker room speech. They go into the offseason with Ben Roethlisberger questioning if he will play next season, although most suspect the thirty-four year old quarterback will come back The Steelers will need to find Roethlisberger some more receivers to complement Brown, as there were too many dropped passes although if Bryant can get back on the field and stay there that would help. They also can’t allow them to be so reliant on Le’Veon Bell, as talented as he is if you look at the games missed through injury or suspension you cannot afford for him to account for such a large part of your offence. On defence you have to think that whilst James Harrison is coming back for another year, the Steelers will need a long term replacement for him to play on the other side to Bud Dupree.

It doesn’t feel like there is a huge overhaul needed, and the Steelers are one of the most stable franchises in the league, but I do wonder if at some point some of the questions around the locker room, and or coaching might lead to some kind of adjustment. It certainly won’t be anything spectacular, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Conference Championship Previews

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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It is hardly surprising that the conference championship games look really good, but they have a lot to live up to after the game Dallas and Green Bay put on last week.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons don’t just have a good offence, they have one that has produced numbers up there with some of the best there have been. You might not see Matt Ryan making the kind of amazingly athletic throws that Aaron Rodgers has made look routine over recent weeks, but he is in firm control of an offence that allows him to distribute the ball to a wide range of options in the passing game, whilst Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have proved themselves to be a highly effective combination out of the back field. It is hardly a surprise to see the coordinator behind such a season be sought after as a head coach, but fans in Atlanta will be hoping that this hasn’t been too much of a distraction for Kyle Shanahan as he prepares for this game. The Falcons are going up against a Packers defence that has been injured for a lot of the season, and they will be hoping to do enough to allow their offence to keep up with the Falcons. The secondary will have to work really hard to keep up with the Falcons’ offence and this could be a game too far for them.

The Packers have ridden the red hot play of Aaron Rodgers over the back end of the season and into the playoffs. The injuries at running back have meant that Rodgers is carrying this team with his arm, but he has found the right balance of extending plays in the pocket and playing within the structure of the offence to keep the Packers winning. That said, he now has receivers injured and it is hard not to think that Jordy Nelson will be limited by his rib injuries even if he does make the field in this game. The Falcons defence has not been good this season, but they have had enough pass rush to take advantage of the leads they often play with to make life difficult for the opposition, even if the majority of their sacks are accounted for by Vic Beasley who led the league through the regular season.

This could very well be a spectacular shoot out, but I do wonder if the injuries that the Packers are accruing could just sink them despite Rodgers extraordinary play. I certainly wouldn’t count out the Falcons and I’m really looking forward to this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

This is the sixth year in a row that the Patriots have made the conference championship game in a display of remarkable consistency. However, they are coming into this game off the back of a rocky performance that saw Tom Brady rattled a little and double his interception tally for the year with a pair of interceptions to go with the two he threw in the regular season. That said, it is hard not to expect continued excellent play from Brady who may not have ever made the spectacular kinds of plays that Rodgers is capable of, but runs his offence with complete mastery of the system. A system that changes week to week depending on how they choose to attack the defence they are facing. The Steelers defence will pose a serious test as they have enough experience not to be overawed by the situation and have been playing incredibly well over the back end of the season and into the playoffs. Their outside linebackers Bud Dupree and James Harrison have been getting pressure and causing problems, whilst inside backers Timmons and Shazier have looked good in the middle, and you can see the Steelers mimicking the up the central pressure the Texans used last week to get pressure on Brady.

If the defence of the Steelers have come together, then the offence has been a little off this season. The passing game has not been what we have come to expect over recent seasons despite Antonio Brown still being one of the premier receivers in the game. The Steelers have responded to this by handing the ball to Le’Veon Bell more in a tactic that has paid off big time. The patient runner can eat up the clock whilst racking up the yards, and this tactic not only makes the most sense for moving the ball for the Steelers in this game, but it also could limit the time Brady has on the field, which is no bad thing. The New England defence has not been spectacular by numbers, except they lead the league in scoring defence, which is one those key stats that really does help you win football games. They don’t really have a lot of big name players as far as the league is concerned, with Devin McCourty the only Pro Bowl selection, but they are schemed very well each week and you can see them planning to stop the run, bracket Antonio Brown, and daring the other Steelers to beat them.

The Steelers very definitely have a template that can beat the Patriots and will not be intimidated by going into New England. This may not be the offensive spectacle that the earlier game will likely be, but I see this as a very competitive game that could go either way. As football fans, what else could want from the conference championship games?

Goodbye to the Disappointed Divisional Teams

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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We have said goodbye to four more teams, and are only three games that matter away from the end of the season. Of course our thoughts turn towards the conference championship games this weekend, but before we consider them fully let us take a moment to look at the state of the four departed and consider what was a truly spectacular game on Sunday.

The early game saw the Seattle Seahawks finally finish a difficult down year for them that still netted them a division title and a playoff win. They started the game off strongly, moving the ball on their first drive and scoring a touchdown to take an early lead that they held onto until around two thirds of the way through second quarter and were unable to reclaim. The Seahawk’s offence was let down by its structural flaw in the offensive line, and so they were unable to keep up with the Atlanta Falcons superb offence. It is not too often that you see a guard step on his quarterback’s foot and cost his team a safety. The Seahawks managed to run for one hundred yards, but with only twenty-one carries they were not as committed to it as the previous week, and they were unable to do enough through the air to make up for it although both Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson had respectable days in gaining eighty yards each. However, combine the problems on offence with a defence that was missing Earl Thomas at safety and there were too many problems to overcome.

The Seahawks should have Thomas back next year, but their focus should be improving the offensive line. The problem is that this was the case last season so while they appear to have the cap space to address this, you can’t honestly predict if they will or not address their offensive line this offseason. Still, you would expect the Seahawks to be competitive again next season and I will be curious to see how Pete Caroll approaches next season with chatter already surfacing that he will be addressing some aspect of his player’s behaviour that adversely affected the team this years. I can’t see him changing completely, but as ever I look forward to seeing what happens in Seattle.

The second game on Sunday was unsurprising in its result, and the Patriots still covered the huge line in beating the Houston Texans, but the actual game did not exactly flow how many predicted. The Texans offence struggled, and benefitted from some rare mistakes from the Patriots to take advantage of good field position. However, the problems with Brock Osweiler’s play at quarterback still continued to hamper this team’s efforts and this surely will be a big focus in the offseason. There is some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but the return of JJ Watt to play alongside Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney could produce a terrifying front seven and a defence that could be as scary as any in the league. Even without Watt they were able to scheme pressure up the middle and rattle Tom Brady, even if Brady was able to find a way to grind out the game as he usually does.

The Texans could be a really good team, but they have to address the quarterback problem. This is something of a surprise given that Bill O’Brien is an offensive minded head coach who has a reputation as a quarterback whisperer, but he can only coach the players he is given. He seemed to learn the lesson of last season and so stuck with Osweiler until he just couldn’t any more, but it is worrying that receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a better season with the rotating cast of quarterbacks that were throwing him the ball last season than with Osweiler and Savage this. If they can get the right balance on offence then this team could take a real step forward, but with their recent history who knows if they will be able to manage it.

The first game on Sunday was one of the best of the season and certainly the highlight of the playoffs to date. What started as a dominating performance by the Green Bay Packers, which saw them gain a 21-3 lead by half way through the second quarter ended in a tight contest that saw three fifty plus yard field goals in the last two minutes.

The Cowboys success this year was based up their two stellar rookies performing behind their excellent offensive line. Thrust from developmental backup to opening day starting quarterback by Tony Romo’s preseason fractured vertebrae, Dak Prescott has been remarkably calm and safe with the ball from the get go and as the season progressed so did his range of passing. Prescott’s ability to run the ball also complements rookie running back sensation Ezekiel Elliott and the pair of them led the Cobwoys to the playoffs. They were slow starters, which could very well be attributed to nerves, but Elliott ran for one hundred and twenty-five yards whilst Prescott threw for over three hundred. There is no shame in falling short against the Packers, particularly as it took some remarkable play for Aaron Rodgers and ridiculously difficult catch by Jared Cook to setup the winning field goal.

The Cowboys defence has struggled to keep up with the performance of the offence, and whilst they were solid enough in overall DVOA ranking at seventeen, they have struggled to rush the passer and they will need to address this side of the ball in the offseason to improve. It will be disappointing to go 13-3 and not get a playoff win, but this team is a very good position to continue its success next year, and if they continue to draft as strongly as they have in recent years then I see no reason bar injury that they won’t do so. Given how well the pick of Elliott has worked out, I will be giving them a bigger benefit of the doubt when draft time rolls round!

The final game of the weekend saw a second team depart the playoffs without a win after a bye week when the Kansas City Chiefs were beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers despite scoring two touchdowns to the Steelers’ zero.

The Chiefs have been a very good regular season team over the last two years, but have struggled to make this really count with a deep playoff run. This season’s team was a very balanced matchup of offence and defence with very good special teams. However, there were flaws in this team that came back to bite them in this game. The Chiefs defence has been solid this year, but they have been very reliant on turnovers and only managed one in this game. However, despite having a poor rushing defence and giving up one hundred and seventy yards on the ground to Le’Veon Bell, the Chiefs defence limited the Steelers to six field goals and so it was not the defence that cost the Chiefs this game.

The Chiefs have relied on a speed and big plays to supplement their offence, and the Steelers made a point of kicking away from Tyreek Hill to negate his return ability on special teams and their defence was able to limit the Chiefs’ offence for large stretches of the game. Whilst the Steelers racked up nearly four hundred yards of the offence, the Chiefs were only able to amass a little under two hundred and thirty and this was their real problem. Their offence, based as it is on trickery and speed was unable to move the ball consistently enough to win against the Steelers.

Moving into next season, the Chiefs will likely to be just as consistent again, but it seems they will need to find some extra level if they are to take the next step. Shoring up a porous run defence will go a long way to helping that side of the ball, whilst making the offence more consistent will help the other side. A more consistent run game could be found simply from their running backs being healthier, but continuing the improvements to the offensive line would help as well. However, there are already questions being asked about whether Alex Smith is capable of the level of play required to win big in the playoffs. Given some of the names that have graced the Super Bowl that might be a little over the top, but the era defining defences that are needed to carry such quarterbacks far into the playoffs are not easy to come by, and it is not hard to see the Chiefs drafting a quarterback to develop behind a thirty-two year old Smith.

Sunday Divisional Games

15 Sunday Jan 2017

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Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboy lost Tony Romo in pre-season to a fractured vertebrae, and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott stepped into the void and looked comfortable from the get go. Operating behind what is widely regarded as the best offensive line in the league he and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott helped the Cowboys get the number one seed behind their stellar play. As the season went on Prescott was able to increase his grasp of the offence and with a combination of the way Elliott ran the ball and Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Cole Beasley as receiving options, the Cowboys are formidable opponents for the Packers in this game. However, whilst the offence stands every chance of moving the ball on the Packers, the defence has been more of an issue. They do not have the pass rush of the similarly constructed Falcons, but do rank better by overall defensive DVOA. However, they face a really tough matchup in the Packers offence

The Packers come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NFL having turned a 4-6 record into a 10-6 division win and running out easy winners against the Giants last week. The defence has been battling injuries in the secondary for most of the season, and although they were ranked number one against the run at one point, are another unit in the playoffs that ranks a fair bit worse than their offence. The offence lost Jordy Nelson early last week who will not make this game due to his fractured ribs, but Aaron Rodgers has found his rhythm with his receiving group during this win streak and so will remain dangerous in the passing game. Rodgers has an uncanny ability to move and keep a play alive and is back to throwing receivers open and looking is looking like the best quarterback in the league.

This is not a game I want to predict, the Cowboys can likely dominate the time of possession with the run game and protect their defence, which has been the game plan for most of the season, but Rodgers does not need a lot of opportunities to produce points. This could very well be game of the week, and I for one am heartily looking forward to it.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been quietly racking up the regular season wins for a season and a half now, and welcome the Steelers to the loudest outdoor stadium in the league.

A lot of jokes have been made about Andy Reid’s clock management over the years, but he is an incredibly good coach whose football teams have won a lot of games. His quarterback has the reputation of a game manager, but Alex Smith gets the job done and is capable of spreading the ball around as required as well as moving the ball with his feet. The Chiefs’ leading receiver this year was Travis Kelce, who will be going up against a defence ranked thirteenth in the league against tight ends by DVOA. However, the emergence of Tyreek Hill as a big player receiver as well as special teams returner has added another dimension to the Chiefs, but he is not the only speed option they have on offence. The Chiefs’ defence has been good rather than outstanding, and has missed Justin Houston to injury for much of the year, although Houston has flashed when he did get on the field and the Chiefs will hope that he plays on Sunday.

The Steelers got an easy win against the Dolphins last week as Antonio Brown stole the game in the first quarter. They will expect that Le’Veon Bell will be able to rack up the runs against a rush defence that ranked twenty-sixth in the league against the run by DVOA, and that could be enough to win them the game with the way Bell has been playing this season. He has needed to be this good as Ben Roethlisberger has struggled at times, and the quarterback left the stadium in a walking boot last week but will be playing this week. The Steelers’ defence played very well against the Dolphins, with the seemingly ageless James Harrison making his presence felt along with the other Steelers linebackers. This is not the same style of defence as in recent years, and they started the year struggling a little, but finished the year just outside the top ten by DVOA and have been very solid in their new cover 2 look.

This is another game that is hard to predict as both teams have been competitive all year, but if feels like the Chiefs have been more consistent all year and are home so I would give them the edge, but this feels like a second toss up game.

Wildcard Sunday

08 Sunday Jan 2017

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With yesterday’s games turning out to be easy home wins, our attention shifts to tonight’s matchups in the hopes of more competitive fixtures

Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

In something of a theme for wildcard week, the Miami Dolphins face the Steelers with a backup quarterback. However, Matt Moore has looked pretty good and has at least won two of the three games that he has played. The Dolphins offence may not be consistently effective, but they have a number of play makers, and Jay Ajayi will be hoping to have the kind of success he had against the Steelers in week six when he ran for two hundred yards and the Dolphins won the game. That win sparked a six game win streak to take the Dolphins from 1-4 to 7-4 but this game is a tough ask. Their defence will face a difficult teat against the Steelers, particularly with their twenty-second ranked rush defence by DVOA goes against Le’Veon Bell, but if Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake can get going then maybe the Dolphins can contain them.

The strength of this Steelers team is the combination of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. However, Roethlisberger has not quite looked himself since his return from a knee injury and it is very possible that he is banged up. As a result Antonio Brown has not been quite as dominant as last season, but he is still a phenomenal player, and you only have to look at the play he made against the Ravens in week sixteen as he stretched for the winning touchdown to see the impact he can still have. The good news for the Steelers is that they finally come into the playoffs with Le’Veon Bell healthy and having run for over twelve hundred yards in just twelve games. The defence may present some concerns given their up and down performance but they will want to make up for the two hundred yards they gave up early in the year.

If the Dolphins defence can do enough to limit the Steelers, then with their big play options on offence the Dolphins can do enough to win this game, but it is hard to see them doing so. This is Adam Gase’s first year with the Dolphins and their first appearance in the playoffs since the 2008 season, whilst the Steelers are filled with playoff experience and an offence that if it gets going could put this game away quickly. I expect the Steelers to win this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins got beaten heavily or made a game of it.

New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)

This is the game of the wildcard weekend. The Packers won their division with a six game win streak after Aaron Rodgers stated they would win out and the team backed that up by doing just that. The Packers have had problems with injuries, patching up their secondary and making do at running back. The offence has now found a formula they can make work and have scored thirty or more in the last four games. However, although defence led the league in rush defence early on, injuries have seen this unit slip to be distinctly average. At home they will hope that the offence can take the pressure off, but a young secondary could be the Achilles heel of the Packers in this game.

The Giants come into this game with a defence ranked number two in defence by DVOA having been thirtieth the year before. This is the largest single year improvement of defence ever recorded by DVOA and is off the back of a bunch of free agent signings and a major step forward by second year safety Landon Collin. In fact Collins leads the team in tackles with one hundred, plus four sacks, and five interceptions, which is an incredible season by anyone’s standard. This defence turnaround is very timely as the offence has really struggled for a lot of this year. The Giants have been unable to run the ball effectively and Eli Manning has thrown sixteen interceptions as he’s struggled to find his receivers consistently. Both Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz have had their moments, but too often the Giants offence has been reliant on big plays to Odell Beckham. That said, Paul Perkins did manage to run for one hundred yards against Washington next week, and if the Giants can be a bit more balanced on offence or find Beckham a couple of times then they stand a real chance in this game.

I am really not sure who is going to win this one, but I am expecting a good game to close out the Wildcard weekend.

Thanksgiving Roundup

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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So rather than trying to cover all three games fully I’ll go through the points that leapt out at me over the course of the three Thanksgiving games.

Detriot Lions 16
Minnesota Vikings 13

This was a close game, but throughout it seemed to me that the Lions were moving the ball more consistently on offensive even if they did fall behind in the fourth quarter again. It’s getting to be a feature of the Lions’ season, but once again they managed to come from behind to win.

That said, the Vikings defence is looking back to something like its form from the start of the season, but the offence is still struggling. The loss of receiver Stefon Diggs hurt the Vikings, although it is nice to see Cordarrelle Patterson more on offence, but they still don’t have a running game they can rely on yet and the offensive line is likely going to remain a weakness. I will be curious to see what they do at the end of year in terms of both the line and quarterback, but I expect them to be competitive at least for their remaining games.

The Lions have done enough to lead their division in a down year for the Packers and a very troubled one for the Vikings. The offence continues to get points when they need one, but they are hampered by the defence. I can see them getting into the playoffs, but I think they will struggle against teams like the Seahawks and Cowboys. Still, it seems that everyone, including myself, has had to reassess Matthew Stafford in the wake of his late game heroics this year.

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington 26

The score was a lot closer than the game was thanks to a late surge by Washington in the fourth quarter, but in truth the Giants were able to dominate this game throughout.

That said, there was a period where the Washington defence was doing a credible job of bottling up Ezekiel Elliott, but the problem is that the Cowboys will not be deterred and with the offensive line they have, you may be able to slow Elliott down but it already seems that he will eventually have his way. The Cowboys ran for one hundred and sixty-three yards in this game, with Elliot just shy of one hundred yards on only twenty carries. That kind of number should help him be fresher going into the end of the season, and Dak Prescott picked up a further thirty-nine yards on the ground. The rookie quarterback’s numbers don’t look spectacular, but he continued to drive the Cowboys efficiently and they have the best record in the NFL for a reason.

Washington’s defensive line did looked okay for large parts of this game, but the offence seemed to struggle for sections of this game to keep drives going.  They lost despite dominating time of possession and total yards in this game, but it should be noted that Dustin Hopkins only made two of his four field goals. It is too easy to say that if he had made them that Washington would have won the game, but it would surely have affected the flow of the game and should not be discounted. There is no shame in going to the team with the best record in the league and losing, but Washington will need to get back to winning ways if they want to stay in contention for the playoffs. Still with the way the offence is playing they stand a fighting chance.

Indianapolis Colts 7
Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a very straight forward game for the Steelers, which always looked likely to be the case once Andrew Luck went into the concussion protocol.

The Steelers did not suffer a dip against opposition they should beat as is sometimes the case, and it was very much the Steeler’s triplet show with Le’Veon Bell running for one hundred and twenty yards with a touchdown, and Antonio Brown catching three touchdowns with just under one hundred yards. Ben Roethlisberger may have only thrown for two hundred and twenty-one yards, but with three touchdowns and a seventy percent completion rate I’m sure he will be okay with the performance. Their defence also put in a good shift, and they will be hopeful of keeping pace with the Ravens in the race for the AFC North.

The Colts could get very little going, and their solitary touchdown owes much to a fake punt play that went for thirty-five yards when punter Pat McAfee completed his pass to Erik Swoope. Although the Colts recorded ninety-one yards from twenty-one rush attempts, this masks Frank Gore’s fifteen carries that yielded only twenty-eight yards. In a game with a career backup starting, the Colts needed more help from their run game to balance their offence and didn’t get it. I didn’t think that Scott Tolzien looked terrible, but he threw several balls high as well as two interceptions chasing a game that the Colts were never really in. I’m sure everyone in Indianapolis will be keeping their fingers crossed that Andrew Luck can make a quick return.

 

Overall we had two competitive games, and one complete blowout, but I enjoyed all three, even if I didn’t spend all day watching them with a huge meal to keep me going.

Does the NFL Have a Problem?

27 Thursday Oct 2016

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It seems that everyone is writing some variation on what is wrong with the NFL, or questioning whether there are any good teams. The ratings for TV in the States are down, and the quality of the prime time games has been called into question, yet as ever, I think that the situation is more complicated than that.

Certainly there do seem to have been a lot of less than stellar games in the prime time slots, but part of that is due to the lack of flexing games until later in the season, and the very nature of the Thursday games. As it allows me to watch every team, and I get a chance to watch without knowing the score, I watch and write up the Thursday night games and you can frequently see them descend into an easy win for the home team. Playing a game three days early when it takes a week to recover has always caused problems for NFL teams, and it certainly calls into question the NFL’s claim that safety is their prime concern.

However, whilst these games are deliberately chosen to show case every team to the nation, the big prime time Sunday night and Monday night games are meant to be the best of the week’s matchups. The problem with that though, is these fixtures are selected whilst the army of computers that are used to churn out the schedule are working overtime to find the best fit that they can out of the incredibly complex mix of team requirements, TV requirements, the cycle of divisional opponents and various other factors that goes into making the NFL schedule. The difficulty being that when these decisions are being made, nobody knows who the good teams are going to be in the upcoming season. Even a safe looking selection like the New England Patriots visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers can take a turn for the worse when an important player like Ben Roethlisberger picks up and injury that keeps him out of the game.

There has been mention of the NFL having gone up against the presidential debates, but whilst there is a lot of focus on the race, the league have only had games go up directly against two of the three televised debates. So what is going on?

Part of it could well be that the NFL seems to be lacking teams that are definitively good this season. Week seven saw the last undefeated record go, and there are only three teams with a solitary loss. The New England Patriots look as good as anyone now that Tom Brady has come back from his suspension, but their defence seems to lack pass rushing and may be vulnerable to a high powered offence. The Dallas Cowboys have looked good as they have gone 5-1, largely thanks to the performance of two key rookies on offence and a defence that seems to have made a definite step up in play when compared to last season. The only other team to with a solitary loss are the Minnesota Vikings who were the last undefeated team this year, but the injuries to their already suspect offensive line allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to pressure them into a loss. This is a team that has already lost their starting quarterback to a practice injury in the preseason and their leading rusher.

Not team is ever perfect, but it feels like the presence of a major flaw is looming over a lot of teams this season. The Seattle Seahawks are as competitive a team in the league, but their offensive line is not good, and now an injured Russell Wilson is struggling to perform behind it. The Atlanta Falcons have the second ranked offence by DVOA, but their defence is ranked a lowly twenty-sixth and such a disparity makes it hard to look like a super team.

Once again though, there could be more to it. Certainly the games haven’t always been the best spectacle, people want excitement, and when games are being called with so many penalties as they currently are, it is hard to keep people engaged. My only personal frustration is the five yard illegal contact that seems to get called the moment a corner back breathes on a receiver, along with an unnecessarily generous automatic first down. If you are going to call a penalty that often, it shouldn’t just come with a first down, and a bit of hand fighting is hardly the biggest problem in the NFL. In fact I’ll try to approach that right now.

There are so many topics to cover and once again I am running out of time so let’s circle round to the biggy, at the centre of so many questions. The league office, and in particular Roger Goodell. There have been many words dedicated to his performance over the last couple of years. For a very on point summary of his handling of the Josh Brown case look no further than Sally Jenkins in the Washington Post (article here) and the really troubling this is that we have been here before and Goodell has not learnt his lessons. So the NFL are stuck with a commissioner who is happy to fine players for daring to twerk in the end zone, but can’t stick to his own policy on domestic abuse and yet again is blaming local law enforcement. The owners are happy to have him as he acts as firewall for criticism aimed at the league, but with dropping ratings, questions about safety and concussions, plus for possibly the first time there is potentially a serious rival league in the NBA who might be able to mount a genuine attempt at replacing football as America’s number one sport, it might be time for them to realise that the NFL is not too big to fail.

It is a long way from that, but they have to address youth football, get out of their own way when it comes to officiating, and find the right balance between player safety and allowing coaches to coach. To look at whether the rosters are too young, what new training tools like the robotic tackling dummies that we saw in this seasons Hard Knocks can give to the game. Football can be a conservative game, but with the challenges it faces, and to ensure its policy, it has to look to the future and embrace it, and that might just mean a forward looking commissioner that inspires confidence.

Of course, in four weeks’ time these stories could all just disappear, but the problems won’t and that should concern owners, players, and fans alike.

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

My rule for the Thursday night games going forward is to always pick the home team unless there is a compelling number of points, or an amazingly good team on the road against a poor team. By this formula there is nothing about the Jaguars who seem to have gone backwards this season on offence for me to do anything other than pick the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

The End of Streaks

29 Thursday Sep 2016

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It was a strange week three that saw many a game going differently to how people expected, and saw both Dan and I get murdered on our picks.

I wrote before making my picks last week that I expected more teams to get their first loss or win than continue their streaks, but it seems I picked all of the wrong ones and even in the games where I made the right choice, those choices were hardly convincing.

  • One of the unbeaten Texans and Patriots had to lose their first game, but whilst I acknowledged that Bill Belichick could win this game, I was not expecting the Patriots to manage a 27-0 win over the Texans.
  • The Cardinals went to Buffalo and lost, giving them a losing record and granting the Bills their first win of the season and resulting in the usual Rex Ryan bravado about facing the Patriots this week.
  • The Broncos went to 3-0 with an impressive win in Cincinnati where the Bengals defence stacked the box and dared Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, which he promptly did.
  • Even when I picked the Dolphins to beat the winless Browns in Miami and get their first win of the season, they needed overtime to do it and were nowhere near the ten point lead I needed for my pick to come through.
  • I expected the Viking to keep the game close against the Panthers, but instead ran out with a victory to remain unbeaten despite their injury troubles.
  • I didn’t see Washington beating a Giants team that were off to a great start, and yet they managed it whilst Odell Beckham grabbed headlines with another emotional outburst. This time the talented receiver lost a fight to a field goal net on the Giant’s side-line.
  • The Ravens went down to Jacksonville to face a desperate Jaguars team who were not desperate enough to avoid going 0-3, whilst the Ravens have the quietest unbeaten record in the league.
  • The Colts were one of only three games featuring a 2-0 or 0-2 record that I picked correctly, when they managed to get a win over the visiting Chargers who now have a perfect record of played three, lost three starters for the season to injury.
  • The Eagles put pay to the Steelers unbeaten record and kept their own, making the hype surrounding Carson Wentz even greater. I am so impressed with the Eagles coaching staff and the turnaround they have made so far, I’m really looking forward to seeing how this team develop over the rest of the season.
  • The Bears continued to lose, giving me my only other totally correct pick of week two where I got it right and the game went how I expected.
  • Finally, I was tempted into picking the Falcons because of an extra half point the Saints were giving up, but it turns out that the Falcons didn’t need these points as they ran out easy winners in a game of a lot of points.

Now, the wonderful thing about the NFL is that it is doing a sterling job of giving us talking points and excitement over the weekends, but boy is it making predicting what is going to happen difficult.

Still it is still early, and even though I will be writing my quarter poll summary in a couple of weeks, there are very few teams that should be truly despondent. However, whilst the Cleveland Browns were never likely to be looking for anything other than progress, and to their credit they are playing tough for the Hue Jackson in his first year, the Bears, Saints, and Jaguars are all in trouble. Only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 when the playoff format was expanded to its current format. The Bears were expected to be rebuilding this year even if the injuries have made things worse than I was expecting, but the Jaguars were hoping to make the next step and push for the playoffs whilst the Saints have a Super Bowl winning quarterback who they have failed to surround with enough talent to push as far as they would expect.

The Jaguars are a particular disappointment as they head over to London to host the Colts this week, and already people are wondering if the London game is going to cost another head coach his job. Despite the warm feelings that everyone who has ever dealt with Gus Bradley seems to have, it is hard to see the Jaguars owner putting up with these results for much longer, and the Jaguars will need to turn things round quickly if Bradley is to keep his job past the end of the season.

And continuing the theme of disappointment, the big news of the last twenty-four hours is that JJ Watt has been placed on injured reserve as he having more problems with his back, and could possibly be gone for the season. I’ll write a little more about this over the weekend as I was already going through the coaching tape of Watt vs the Patriots, but hopefully he can make it all the way back as he is one of my favourite players to watch, but back injuries are hard ones to return from and people who’ve had such problems often say that they never felt the same.

The week five games look to offer plenty of excitement and intrigue, but already the attrition has really started to affect some teams, and it is an all too prescient reminder of how tough a game American Football is. I never want to see a player injured, but I will confess that part of me is curious to see what the Patriots would do if they were forced to play Julian Edelman as their quarterback.

Still, it is time to start looking at this week’s games, starting with tonight’s game that pits Dan’s Dolphins on the road against my beloved Bengals.

Our records are nothing to shout home about, particularly after our disastrous previous week, but I did manage to maintain my three point lead:

Gee:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   21-27
Dan:       Week 3   5-11                     Overall   18-30

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Bengals lost their first home game of the season, in what has been a tricky open to the season, but if they can get back to 2-2 they can still hope to make a push for the playoffs. It appears that Tyler Eifert is not going to make it back for the game, but Vontaze Burfict comes off suspension and is likely to help the Bengals defence straight away. I think the Browns are going to give teams a tough game at the moment so I’m not reading too much into last week’s result for the Dolphins, but an overtime game before a short week road game is not the best prep, and I’m hopeful that the Bengals can win and hopefully find some rhythm on offence. For one game only I’m borrowing from Dan and picking blindly based on my fandom.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

An Unexpected Mock and the Real Draft

01 Sunday May 2016

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My offseason on the blog has been quieter than I was expecting as it turns out that self-publishing a book is a time consuming business, but I have still been following along as the offseason progressed. It was however, kick-started into gear when the Gridiron Gentlemen were looking for people to take part in their mock draft, and in the spirit of curiosity I offered to lend a hand for the Bengals.

This was always going to be an interesting experience for me as I am not a college football fan, but I have been listening to college/draft analysis podcasts all season and as a Bengals fan I feel like I have a handle on what the team have been doing to have turned around their drafting fortunes. Gone are the days of spectacular busts, and thanks to multiple years of solid pick they have one of the deepest rosters in the league.

So I tried to model my drafting method on the Bengals own, so I planned to draft the best player available, but taking account of the positions involved. I don’t know much of my biases are based on opinion abut the draft and how much is following the Bengals as a fan, but for me in the first round you focus on key positions that are defined by particular physical traits. The only exception to this is if you need a quarterback as that is always the key position, but as the Bengals have two quarterbacks who won games last season, they were not in that market this year. The positions I would focus on in the first round are corners, offensive line tackles, pass rushers, wide receivers, and defensive tackles. Each of these positions are either particularly based around athleticism, or are hard to find as there simply are not that many athletic three hundred pound plus people on the planet. I did not have time to create my own draft board, so I chose one and focussed in on several players ranked around twenty-four, which is where the Bengals were picking.

Obviously I don’t have my own staff of scouts, but a couple of players had got my attention in the range that I was picking. My first target was Josh Doctson, one of the most complete receiving talents in the draft, and one that Robert Mays, ex of Grantland and now of Bill Simmon’s new venture The Ringer, was effusive in his match to the Bengals need at receiver and what he could do opposite AJ Green. Another was Mackenzie Alexander, who is a bit short the Bengals usual preference for corners, but who was something of a favourite of Fran Duffy both for his play, and for a press conference where he not only broke down one receiver that he had been asked about, but then continued through other receivers in the draft.

This is the graphic of the entire first round pick:

Gents_Mock_Draft

With two picks to go before me I liked three players, and Houston Texans took a receiver I didn’t want for my team I knew I would have a decision to make, but a good one and then the Minnesota Vikings took Josh Doctson. I plumped for Mackensie Alexander, knowing his size was less than ideal for the Bengals, but liking how he had played and I was not worried about the lack of interceptions. The Pittsburgh Steelers then took Eli Apple, who was probably a better fit, but it was my pick and I followed my heart at the position the Bengals eventually picked.

The interesting things is looking at the actual draft where the Bengals took corner William Jackson III so I did get the position right, and Mackensie Alexander didn’t get drafted until the second round by the Vikings, but Eli Apple was picked at ten by the New York Giants.

This is where things get a bit strange. I have no problems with people talking about picks they liked and didn’t. However, much like the free agent period, we are already rushing to pick winners and losers in the draft and to grade teams. The truth is however, that we simply do not know who has had a good draft yet. The jury should be out for a couple of years, and even then what is often termed a bust is not always the team’s fault. Injury plays a huge part in the game of football, and no one can predict who will succumb to a major injury and who won’t. You would hope to get at least a solid starter out of your first round pick, you simply can’t have too many of those not work out if you want to be a successful team, but the problem can be as much with expectation as it is with actual play. I always remember the criticism of Justin Smith before he left the team, that he not produced enough sacks for a top five pick. He was however, a three down player who was playing out of position and still had an incredible career, finally gaining the praise he deserved playing as a 3-4 end for the San Francisco 49ers’ defence.

However, the real reason for the drafts prominence is that it gives us fans a shot of hope in the long dark offseason. We can now start to familiarise ourselves with the new players our teams have picked, watch them sign undrafted free agents, and begin the countdown to their first workouts and the things that really matter: the start of training camp, pre-season games, and how the teams are beginning to shape up as the new season approaches. For now however, it is fun to bask in the glow of hope as it is not so long until players start working and the reality of another seasons starts to make itself known.

Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

16 Saturday Jan 2016

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It has been a rough few days. Between Lemmy’s funeral, the Bengals’ implosion, and then Bowie’s death, I have been wandering around in something of a haze. That’s two music icons and personal heroes gone, along with the continuing twenty-five year wait for a playoff win. That’s not even a championship, but the hope that the team, fans, and the city of Cincinnati would be spared a fifth consecutive playoff loss, but I’ll come back to the Wildcard games in a bit.

In the days following Bowie’s death there have been some writing that they don’t understand the outpouring of grief over a musician, that this is someone that you have never met so why are you sad? The answer to that was put rather beautifully by Lauren Laverne on her Monday radio show, because of course it is personal, music has that strange and magical hook direct into your soul. It has the power to soothe, to inspire, it is the soundtrack to your life, and can take you back to a key moments from your past in an instant. Part of our identity is what we chose to love, what is important to us. This is the same process that makes someone care about the outcome of twenty-two men chasing a ball around a field, what films we like to watch, or what books we read. It is all a part of how we identify ourselves, how we express to the world who and what we are.

I have written before on the positive effects that sport can have, particularly with participation, but also for simply taking someone out of themselves. What I love about Bowie was his endless exploration of self-expression. This pursuit wasn’t a search for a new on trend sound that would help further his career, but the continuing development of a curious artist. I don’t have the single personal moment of a song telling me that I could do or be something that I have heard so many talk about in the last few days. I am too young for him to have revolutionised what was possible, for me it had already happened, but oh boy what a catalogue of songs. To me he was intrinsically intertwined with what a musician should be, and so as a drummer, therefore what I should aspire to be. I can’t hear Rebel Rebel without thinking about my dad, it was one of those conversations father and sons have across generations when they both love music. We all have heroes and influences. Some people have a select few. I could wax lyrical on scientists, politicians, artists of all hues, and yes sports people.

Even as I write the first draft of this blog, we have learned that Alan Rickman has also passed away, again aged 69 and killed by cancer. Death is not something we like to think about, it is an all too painful reminder of our own mortality. It is even more shocking when it comes as a surprise, when we were ignorant of the illness, when an album was only released three days earlier.

So how do I pull this back to sport of all things? Well by dint of the aforementioned discussion on policing grief. Like all things, there are degrees of grief. Life in all its infinite complex glory gives us endless things to care about, and usually concern over one thing does not deny concern about the other. We have to have some kind of balance, otherwise we’d collapse under the cares of the world. I am saddened by the death of a hero. But what about all the wars? My team lost a playoff game. Are you not concerned by the systematic dismantling of the welfare state? My team is moving city. Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes.

With apologies to Walt Whitman, we’ll get back to football, and the various sets of fans that have had a pretty bad week as well.

The Houston Texans had done well to even make the playoffs, but last weekend really was one game too far. The game started with a one hundred and six yard kick off return touchdown by the Chiefs, and things never improved as the Texans slipped to a 30-0 loss. The defence actually gave a reasonable account of themselves, especially with JJ Watt having further injuries, but the offence was horrible. Racking up five turnovers, with Brian Hoyer throwing four interceptions and two fumbles, losing one to the Chiefs, things never got going in the passing game. In fairness, having your starting left tackle is always going to hurt, but the lack of options behind DeAndre Hopkins really hurt the Texans, and you have to think they will be looking to address this in the offseason.

I have said playoff win or bust for the Bengals all season, and it was another painful loss. However, if last year’s loss was explainable by the number of injuries to the skill positions on offence, then this one was understandable given the Bengals were without their starting quarterback and still gave a reasonable account of themselves in the fourth quarter. Despite not scoring in the first three quarters, AJ McCarron put the Bengals in a position to win the game, and they had the ball with 1:50 left on the clock. With a year left on his contract, building one of the league’s most talented rosters, and with his coaching tree still expanding, it appears that Marvin Lewis is safe for another year in Cincinnati, but he will have to address the issue of discipline/poise in the offseason. I have no issue with either of the late penalties that cost the Bengals this game, although Joey Porter had no business being on the field and another coach had already pulled Reggie Nelson’s dreadlocks on the sideline, but you have to be smarter than both Burfict and Jones were at the end of this game. I am sure the league will be looking at ways to control this fixture going forward as they will desperate to avoid the rancour escalating further given the Steelers and Bengals face each other twice a season. Already Hue Jackson has left to be head coach of the Cleveland Browns, so it will be another season of change at coordinator for the Bengals, but so much of the team’s recent success has been built through the offseason and draft that hopefully this part of the process will take care of itself once more.

The most painful loss of the Wildcard round has to be the Minnesota Viking’s agonising last second loss on a missed chip shot twenty-seven yard field goal. You have to think that Blair Walsh will be thinking about that kick for years to come, but this should not take the gloss of the continuing progress the Vikings have made, In ex-Bengal coordinator Mike Zimmer’s second year in charge the Vikings were able to wrestle the NFC North division away from the Green Bay Packers, and have a young foundation to build on. They need to sure up the offensive line and get Teddy Bridgewater some options on offence, but the Vikings have a very tough defence and are heading in the right direction. You can argue that they have the most to look forward to out of the four teams that were eliminated last weekend.

That said, Washington are also making good progress in another ex-Bengals coordinator’s second year in charge. Fittingly, old offensive coordinator Jay Gruden found a formula during the course of the season that turned quarterback Kirk Cousins into one of the most effective passers in the league in the final weeks. With two solid receivers and a very promising progression from tight end Jordan Reid there is hope for them next season. They will need to strengthen their defence, particularly in the secondary, if they want to compete in their division again next season, but they were able to compete with the Packers for three quarters. There looks to be a foundation to build from as long as they can sign Cousins to a sensible contract.

I will come back to the franchises that are moving in the offseason once all the deals have been firmed up, but I can’t help feeling sorry for the fans in St. Louis who are losing their team. It at least makes sense for the Rams to return to Los Angeles, and the offer has been made for the Chargers to join them. We will have to see if they agree, but it looks likely that they will be on the move in some way or the other. At least the Raiders look set to stay in Oakland, but I’m sure their fans won’t feel safe until the franchise finds a long term stadium solution.

So now onto this week’s games, which unsurprising all look to be great.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

All the talk about the Patriots is that they are getting all their key players back, and that just having Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski back will enable to Tom Brady to get the ball out quicker, helping the Patriots in pass protection. This is likely to be the deciding factor in this game, the Chiefs defence has been excellent for most of the season since they got corner Shaun Smith back from injury, but their pass rush will need to be effective if the Chiefs are to win this game.

The Patriots defence has been good for large chunks of the season, but the Chiefs have been getting it done without spectacular passing numbers from Alex Smith, who doesn’t turn the ball over. They actually seem to have improved since running back Jamaal Charles has gone down, but it will be interesting to see if they can scheme their way into competing in this game.

I wouldn’t like to call this game as there are too many injury unknowns, but I am expecting a good contest.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

I am looking forward to this game as the Cardinals are my favourite team left in the competition. Their aggressive long passing game has been effective against virtually everyone, whilst they got a huge amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers the last time they played.

The Packers may have pulled away from Washington at the end of the game, but the offence still hasn’t proved to me that it can play against man coverage, which has been their downfall for much of the season. If they can turn the Cardinal’s aggressive pass rush against them, then they might be able to win this game as their defence has been playing well recently, but I am expecting them to come up short in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are a good team, but they are lucky to be playing in this game. They should have lost against the Vikings if Blair Walsh hadn’t missed the last second field goal. Their offence got very little going last week except when for when Russell Wilson made plays out of structure, but the Seahawks defence is looking good once more and should keep them in contention.

However, the one area the Seahawks defence have struggled with is against tight ends, and Cam Newton’s favourite target this season has been tight end Greg Olson. The Panthers beat the Seahawks in week six, and with their own great defence you would expect them to repeat the feat at home. The Seahawks are always a dangerous proposition in the post season, but you don’t go 15-1 without being very good.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Our final game of the weekend sees Peyton Manning start the game after an injury plagued season where he has ranked amongst the worst quarterbacks in the league. We really can’t be sure how effective the offence will be against a Steelers defence that plays better than its patchy secondary, but the Broncos have been like this all season. What has got them into the playoffs is a fearsome defence, and although they had difficulties against the Steelers earlier in the season, they have been mixing more zone into their coverages, which might help them as the Bengals’ two high safety look did limit the Steelers’ passing attack.

The Steelers will be concerned about attempting their normal game on offence, as Antonio Brown has been ruled out of this week’s game with the concussion he sustained at the end of the game against the Bengals. Somehow Ben Roethlisberger is only questionable despite a sprained AC join and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. If you combine this with the injuries to their running backs and the Steelers might just be too injured to win this one. They will play the Broncos tough, but I would have more faith in the Bronco’s Brock Osweiler than Landry Jones if it does come down to a battle of the backups. I’m expecting the Steelers’ defence to blitz the Broncos heavily to keep themselves in the game, but I think this could be a week too many for the Steelers.

It should be a great set of games this weekend, and let’s hope the world eases up on us a bit going into next week.