Tag Archives: San Francisco 49ers

NFC Preview

05 Wednesday Sep 2018

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18-09-05 NFC-2

So having set myself this ridiculous task, it’s time to try to finish my whistle-stop previews in time for the start of the season so on to the NFC!

NFC North

The Minnesota Vikings won the division at a canter last season and whilst they might not have it all their own way this year now the Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and healthy, they are one of the fancied teams in the NFC. Having let three quarterbacks walk at the start of free agency they signed Kirk Cousins and expect to match offensive production with their fearsome defence. The offensive line is the one obvious weakness but in Mike Zimmer they have one of the best coaches in the league and I think they will be there or there about come December.

The Green Bay Packers had a down season last year thanks to Aaron Rodgers’s broken collar bone, but they will be hoping for a return to the playoffs now he’s back and healthy. A new GM saw the Packers dip into free agency more aggressively this offseason and after nine years they let go of Dom Capers and brought in Mike Pettine as a new defensive coordinator. It hard not to see the Packers in contention come the end of year as long as Rodgers stays healthy and if things gel for them they could be one of the better teams in the league.

The Detroit Lions went nine and seven but failed to make the playoffs and decided to go for a new head coach. They brought in Matt Patricia from the Patriots and a lot of the focus this year will be on just how good a coach the Belichick pupil is. Having left a team with the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA last season , Patricia takes over a Lions team that ranked nineteenth so we shall have to see, but I like the continuity of Jim Bob Cooter staying in charge of offence and continuing his successful work with Matthew Stafford. I can’t take too much from pre-season as I didn’t see any of the starters, but they were not impressive against the Browns and they could be a candidate for a team who struggles. We’ll just have to see how things work out and a lot depends on how successfully Patricia blends what he learnt in New England with his own beliefs now he’s the man who is ultimately responsible.

I was feeling things were on the up for the Chicago Bears even before they swung the trade for Khalil Mack. I’ve seen their offence improve over the course of the pre-season and whilst I’m not necessarily convinced by Mitchell Trubisky, with the skills players the Bears brought in through free-agency and new head coach Matt Nagy’s offensive scheme the Bears almost can’t help but improve on offence. The defence was pretty good before the addition of Mack and rookie linebacker Roquan Smith so I can see why there is a buzz around this team. How many wins this will actually yield this year I don’t know, but I like the aggressive approach the Bears took having realised how short a window an NFL franchises gets to exploit having a quarterback on a rookie contract. Whilst I didn’t like how they manoeuvred to get Trubisky in the draft, I like how they surrounded him with talent this offseason. Now let’s see just how big a dividend the team gets.

NFC East

The Philadelphia Eagles come into the season with one of the strongest rosters on paper, but there are a fare few injuries floating round apart from the Carson Wentz making his way back from the ACL and LCL tears. More worrying is that the Super Bowl winning Nick Foles and the first team offence have not scored a touchdown in pre-season. I think they are still favourites for the season and after the Super Bowl win Doug Pederson had all the affirmation he needs to stick to his plans but there may be a difficult few weeks ahead.

The Dallas Cowboys have lost a lot of franchise cornerstones over the last couple of seasons and big questions remain over who Dak Prescott will be throwing the ball to so a lot rests on how well Ezekiel Elliot can run the ball. That won’t be helped by the injuries to an offensive line that has been the cornerstone of the Cowboys’ offence in recent years. Meanwhile the defence has been more impacted by whether Sean Lee plays or not than any other unit has been by a single player that is not a quarterback. I’m not ready to declare them non-competitive just yet as there is potential for them to have a good year but it would not surprise me if they do in fact struggle, particularly as Jason Garrett doesn’t fill with a lot of confidence as head coach if this team starts to have difficulties.

Washington failed to make the playoffs last season and after several seasons of franchise tagging Kirk Cousins they traded for Alex Smith and then promptly gave him an extension. I am not convinced by the roster moves over recent years and I have a feeling that Jay Gruden will likely have his team win another 7-9 games like they have the last three seasons. There have been positive noised about Smith’s performance in the pre-season and when healthy Jordan Reed has been one of the most effective tight ends in the league in the passing game but I don’t know if the changes that have been made indicate a big improvement.

The New York Giants were a car crash last season with Ben McAdoo losing the locker room, the offence failing to function minus Odell Beckham and the defence slipping to a rank of eighteenth by DVOA having been second in 2016. This year’s Giants have a new GM and head coach who doubled down on Eli Manning despite his flagging form in recent years. They brought in Nate Solder from New England to solidify their offensive line at left tackle and drafted Saquon Barkley second in the draft without trading down and ignoring the various quarterbacks they could have had. There are genuine arguments about taking even as transcendent a talent as Barkley is thought to be over a quarterback given their respective values to a team and career length, but it seems they could have also struck a deal to move down but this what they have to play with now. The worry is how much does Manning still have in the tank but the coaching situation has to better than last year and so whilst I expect an improvement, I don’t know quite how much of a step up the Giants will make. I just hope they don’t regret not grabbing a quarterback when they had the second pick in the draft, who know when they’ll next pick that high again and they certainly will be hoping it isn’t for a while.

NFC South

The NFC south was one of the most competitive division s in the NFL last season with three teams finishing with double digit wins and making the playoffs.

The New Orleans Saints had a franchise changing draft bringing in enough defensive talent to shoot their ranking up into the top ten by DVOA whilst Alvin Kamara generated 1901 yards of offence. There were whispers that Drew Brees’s arm was not quite the same but he’s still as good as any quarterback in the league and threw for four thousand yards for the twelfth straight time! Yes he’s thirty-nine, but there don’t seem to have been any serious signs of decline yet and the Saints have just traded for Teddy Bridgewater who looked excellent throwing the ball for the Jets in pre-season. I’m not sure I would have invested the amount of draft capital the Saints did to pick such a raw pass rush talent in the first round as they did in this year’s draft but I suspect they will be there or there abouts at the end of the season.

The Carolina Panthers’ experiment with changing the way Cam Newton plays failed early in the season but he now has a new offensive coordinator in Norv Turner and I will be very interested to see how this works out. They do have multiple injuries at offensive tackle so it may be a work in progress but for his occasionally maddening accuracy issues, Newton is an effective quarterback in the style that he plays. If the defence continues to be in the top ten by DVOA then I would feel confident in saying that the Panthers will contend. My only concern is that for the last six years the Panthers have alternated double digit win seasons with seven win seasons, although one of them did net a playoff appearance. I certainly don’t believe this constitutes a pattern that is going to suddenly manifest itself in a seven win season but I do worry about their Panthers consistency from year to year. As ever we shall just have to see what the season holds.

The Atlanta Falcons were coming off a difficult Super Bowl loss last season and losing their offensive coordinator to the San Francisco 49ers. They were still a good team but the offence didn’t quite flow under Steve Sarkiesian but the defence continued to shape up under head coach Dan Quinn’s direction and they made it to the playoffs once more. Having adjusted Julio Jones’s contract and extended Matt Ryan’s contract the Falcons look set to challenge once again this season and may feel they weren’t far away last season in the playoffs.

The other team in the NFC South very much feel like the other team. Head coach Dirk Koetter was promoted because of his relationship with Jameis Winston who so desperately wants to be a leader but hasn’t quite managed that or to develop his play. Winston starts the season on suspension after groping an Uber driver and this franchise feels like it is disarray and it would not exactly surprise me if this team struggles all season. We shall have to see how the season plays out and it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong, but come the end of the year I suspect it could be all change for the Buccaneers.

NFC West

Last season’s surprise package in the NFC were the LA Rams who were transformed by young head coach Sean McVay who overhauled the offence to reignite Todd Gurley and rescue Jared Goff from the category of draft bust whilst leaving Wade Phillip alone to run the defence. Not content with making it to the playoffs last season they added Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Sam Shields, and Ndamukong Suh to the defence. It’s clear they have faith in Wade Phillips to control that combustible mix of personalities but there is no doubting these players talent and if both sides of the ball live up to expectations they will be one of the more formidable teams in the league. I’m not sure if it is possible to live up to some of the hype but the Rams would be my pick as favourite for this division.

The Seattle Seahawks had a tough time last year as injuries hobbled the legion of boom and it has been all change for the franchise in the offseason. Not a lot is expected of them, particularly with Earl Thomas holding out but I’m ready to give up on Pete Carroll just yet. The offensive line might finally have solidified a little according to those watching closely and Rashaad Penny, the Seahawks’ rookie running back, has been turning heads in pre-season. As has Australian rookie punter Michael Dickson who managed to kick two fifty yard plus punts out of bounds within the five yard line in one game. I’m not prepared to guarantee anything other than a competitive team, but I think they could surprise a few people this season.

The Arizona Cardinals seem a strange prospect for me without Bruce Arians never mind having to find a new starting quarterback. We know that Sam Bradford is unlikely to make it through the season without getting injured and that receiving legend Larry Fitzgerald deservers a better team, but David Johnson is returning from a wrist injury and so he should get back to something like his previous form. However, with a new coaching staff and so much turmoil it feels like whilst this team in transition might rally round and surprise people, it could also really struggle and something says to me that struggle is the more likely option. I always want to see teams and players do well so I hope to be proved wrong.

Finally, in this two day scramble of writing madness we come to the only team with a quarterback who has an undefeated starting record in the NFL. It is a small sample size so whilst I’m certain that Jimmy Garoppolo’s steak won’t continue throughout this season, the hope that he and first year head coach Kyle Shanahan gave last year will continue to come to fruition this year. However, they have already lost running back Jerick McKinnon to an ACL injury and it’s worth remembering the place that the 49ers started from when John Lynch came in to be Shanahan’s GM last year. I expect the 49ers to be competitive even if they can’t replicate the five game winning streak from the end of last year’s season but the fans from San Francisco may have to wait until next season to return to the playoffs given the size of the rebuild job that had to be taken on. I wouldn’t necessarily put any money on that though…

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AAF: Jimmy Garoppolo

10 Sunday Dec 2017

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So for this week’s amateur adventure in file I took a look Jimmy Garoppolo’s first start for the San Francisco 49ers against the Chicago Bears.

The quotes from his team mates were glowing after the game, but this is not a set of coaching tape that initially wows you with amazing throws. Partly this is the offence as whilst it is undeniably well schemed, there is a lot more two running back sets and running than you will see from a lot of teams in the league, and partly it is that Garoppolo is an accurate thrower that doesn’t necessary throw darts. However, arm strength is often somewhat over rated and what particularly impressed me the timing of Garoppolo’s passes. Looking at his completions you would see the receiver run their route, turn for the ball and it would arrive as they got their hands up.

One of the reasons the players were open was that the 49ers offence is so well schemed. There is a lot of motion before the snap, helping Guroppolo identify coverages as well as enabling them to move the point of attack for their run depending on what play has been called. On any given pass play there are players running combinations of routes to stretch the defence, and when you have a quarterback capable of reading this then you have an effective offence.

The obvious problem in this game came in the red zone. This is perhaps not surprising given that Garoppolo has only been with the franchise for a month and everything is harder in the red zone as there is so much less room to work in. The 49ers are also a little lacking in talent at the moment, but unless this becomes a trend I would not worry too much and given the offence that Kyle Shanahan co-ordinated last year with the Atlanta Falcons, I would back him to sort this out in the long run.

The big question going forward will be how quickly they can develop this offence, but before that they have to finish the season and get Garoppolo signed up long term, but for the first time in what feels like a very long time the 49ers’ fans have something to get really excited about.

Early Season Frustrations

21 Thursday Sep 2017

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It is not just that the Bengals have got off to an 0-2 start that has me frustrated at the start of the season, although it doesn’t help.

In Europe we are bedding a brand new NFL Gamepass site, and whilst there are some good points like the quality of the streams now that they are being hosted over here, and being able to download games to your tablet or phone for watching at a later date, there are plenty of teething issues. A quick search will find you talk of this video is not available in your region, which appears to be some kind of connection/cache issue.

More frustrating are the tools that we have so far lost, that we were used to in the old system. The video player is more basic, and we are no longer able to navigate via play by play bookmarks. Even more difficult for someone like myself, is that the coaching tape is not available yet and all I’ve heard so far is that it will be added soon. Given that this is one of my favourite things about having Gamepass, not to mention that it is putting on hold my regular tape break downs here on the blog, it is really frustrating not to have it already.

So if the presentation is getting there, but missing key things I am used to, how have the games been? Here we get to a meaty discussion that seems to have been the theme for a lot of the NFL coverage that I consume. The quality of play at the moment is a point of contention, and it seems to break to down into a couple of areas.

The first is that under the current collective bargain agreement (or CBA), practice time and specifically the amount of hitting that can be done has been reduced. Now this is for player safety and is a hard thing to argue about, but coaches have been talking about it limiting their ability to develop players. You could write a book on how to coach a team and split reps at practice, so I’m not going to delve heavily into this, but there are two areas that I think is worth highlighting.

Unusually for me, these are both on offence, and might help why according to some commentators the league’s defences have had the upper hand in the early season.

There are some positions where due to the amount of communication involved, there is no real substitute for live reps, even if you are trying to make use of new training advances like the remote controlled mobile tackling dummies. One of them is the offensive line and there seem to be fewer good ones in the NFL at the moment.

This is being highlighted at the moment with a different approach to training camp, with many teams seemingly focused on getting into the season healthy as much as preparation and so offences may improve through the season but are not looking sharp right now. Some teams actually embrace this timetable for peaking their performance with Pete Carroll explicitly stating that the Seahawks focus is to peak in November and December, whilst Bill Belichick has talked about not even having his roster settled until October.

I’m wary of focussing on the Seahawks too much when discussing offensive line play, as it is an area of the roster that they have consistently not invested in heavily be it draft picks, or free-agents. However, whilst teams have different approaches, a consistent theme I have heard apart from how hard it is to develop players is the quality of player entering the league.

In terms of athleticism, there has been massive improvement in terms of the size and speed of players, particularly in terms of how quickly larger players now move. However, the college game, and for the purposes of this particular blog, specifically the offences run by the majority of college games is not developing players for the NFL.

Now in fairness this is not their job. A college head coach is paid to win football games, and so they should do that in the best way they can. But with the popularity of spread offences, there are highly touted, physically gifted offensive line players, who have never taken up a three-point stance or used an aggressive pass set. Now the NFL teams have to scout and work with what they have available, and there are still good linemen out there. However, I keep hearing discussions about a developmental league, and it would seem a very good idea. Not only would it help young players develop, but it might solve the other area of the offence I want to focus on, namely, the quarterback.

Now the reason I want to mention quarterback is not just Andy Dalton’s struggles over the first two games, but the way we cover them and the simple fact that there are nowhere near enough of them to go around.

Given the talent pool that is the continental United States, it might be considered surprising that with only thirty-two spots to fill, that not every team can have a quality starter. However, it is a very complex position to play, requiring a particular set of skills. There is some variation of course, but a quarterback needs to be able to read what is happening on defence, co-ordinate the response, and have the physical tools to get the ball to where it needs to go. It might help if they are athletically gifted as a running quarterback does help open up other ways to attack a defence, but it is not essential.

Generally, the media put too much of the credit on a quarterback’s shoulders when a team wins, and blames them too heavily when a team loses, but given the amount of control a quarterback has over an offence this is seen as part of playing the position.

The problem we have is not only supply and demand, but again goes back to college and practise. Along with the spread system, college quarterbacks increasingly don’t have to call their own plays as signs are used from the side-line. They may rarely take snaps under centre, and this all has to change dramatically upon entering the NFL.

You only have to look at the slow development of a player like Jared Goff, who is having to learn the fundamentals of his trade whilst already a pro, and a combination of media and owners mean that a lot of pressure comes to bear when a high draft pick doesn’t get on the field quickly. This is particularly the case if a team is bad, as they will often be the team drafting a quarterback early. The issue is that whilst a quarterback will only develop so much without reps, the plan to let them take their lumps early is all very well unless the team around them isn’t good enough to succeed. In fact it can actually harm a player if you can’t protect a quarterback and he gets hit too much causing injury or develops bad habits.

And remember, we’ve already discussed that good offensive lines are not exactly getting easier to build.

So we have the current situation with not enough quality quarterbacks to go round, and a number of them (even quality players) under pressure as they can’t be protected.

So you get NFL defences on top. These things do go in cycle, but a combination of issues developing talent and the readiness of that talent could cause a real issue in terms of quality of play. We can’t go back to endless hitting and two a day training camps as we know that is detrimental to player health. I just hope that new ways to develop talent are found, and that if it does, there will be coaching tape for me to marvel at.

And so on to the week three picks.

Gee:      Week 2   9-7                       Overall   18-14
Dan:      Week 2   8-8                       Overall   15-17

Rams @ 49ers (+2.5)

I think Dan thought I was little crazy when I said I was looking forward to this game, but I genuinely am. The LA Rams beat the Colts by a large margin in week one, yet travel to San Francisco with a 1-1 record and Aaron Donald back in the fold to face an 0-2 49ers team. I am interested in looking at how both teams are developing under rookie head coaches as they come back from poor performances in recent years. However, the Rams have shown more this season, and with a surprising eighteen place difference in their ranking by overall DVOA and going into what has been a poorly attended Levi’s stadium, I am trusting the team with a win to get another despite the record of home teams in the Thursday night game. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

The Time of Overreaction

14 Thursday Sep 2017

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Week one is in the books and so it is time for the annual period of overreaction in the NFL to the first set of games, but whilst there are some things that can be taken away from these games, there’s still plenty that falls into the we’ll see pile.

I’m not going to go through every team just yet, but here are some of the things I took away from the games I watched or results that jumped out at me.

We knew the New York Jets were going to be bad, but they were at least designed that way. The Indianapolis Colts appear to be even worse, we don’t know when Andrew Luck will return, and it is going to be a long season for them. The San Francisco 49ers gave rookie head coach Kyle Shanahan and his GM John Lynch a demonstration of just how big a rebuilding job they took on.

The Cincinnati Bengals were one of serval teams who failed miserably to disprove the concerns people had about them going into the season, but were the only team with no points this week that actually played. The Baltimore Ravens look good on defence, are well coached, and will cause problems for many this season and go a very useful divisional win in Cincinnati. I wasn’t expecting anything particularly different in terms of performance against the Bengals, but it was painful to watch the Bengals fail to rise to the occasion. There were points where the Bengals moved the ball, and I can see Andy Dalton bouncing back from the horrible performance as he has done it before – I just wish they didn’t happen in the first place. A short week against the Texans’ pass rush is not how I would have liked to rediscover the offence, but at least the game is at Paul Brown Stadium.

I had thought the Kansas City Chiefs looked good in pre-season, and I thought they would run the New England Patriots close, but they went better than that with a very good win in the opening game of the season. The loss of safety Eric Berry to an Achilles injury is a big blow to the Chiefs defence, but that offence looks like it is going to function well this season. It is too early to panic if you’re a Patriots fan, and the infrastructure is well set to get over this initial setback, but they will be watched as carefully as ever over the next few weeks for signs of decline, particularly in Tom Brady.

The Oakland Raiders are another team who looked very good in week one, easily taking care of the Tennessee Titans on the road, with their defence looking stouter than I thought it would coming into the season, and it looks like they will be continuing their good form of last season and pushing for the playoffs if they can stay healthy.

I don’t want to get too quarterback centric, but although he is still making young player mistakes, Carson Wentz is looking every bit the franchise quarterback at the beginning of his career, with several plays where he held off multiple pass rushers before making a successful pass. I wanted to be sold on the Eagles as a whole and their performance in Washington certainly started the process.

Continuing on the quarterback theme, there’s only so much you can tell about the LA Rams from them beating Colts, but they scored forty-six points and Jared Goff showed that he might have a future in the NFL. I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but the Rams did what they needed to in week one and we will just have to see how things progress for Goff under rookie Head Coach Sean McVay.

So we start to look at the week 2 games, with the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally playing first games of the season after last week’s postponement, and a number of teams looking to pick up from shaky starts. There’s has been a lot of questions about what the pre-season is for and how it might change, but it seems a number of teams still need to get themselves into form as their offseason hasn’t prepared them to hit the ground running. It is a long season, and nobody needs to peak in September, but divisional home losses are bad things to rack up, and several teams started with them in week one.

Last Week’s Record:

Gee:        Week 1   9-7                           Overall   -9-7
Dan:        Week 1   7-9                           Overall   7-9

Texans @ Bengals (-4.5)

So tonight’s game pits two teams with disappointing first games against each other, and the Bengals could be in a real hole if they start 0-2 with two home losses. The problem is that there has to be a reaction by the Houston Texans to how they played last week, and their area of strength on defence matches up painfully against where the Bengals have all their questions on offence. Adam Jones’ return to the Bengals’ secondary may add a spark to the defence, but on a short week in a bad match up, with a rebuilt offensive line that has answered none of the questions asked of it, l will confess to a lack of confidence in my team. I’m not saying the Bengals can’t find the right formula as plenty of teams looked short or reps in week one, but with their history in prime time games I can’t back the Bengals to win by five points when they scored zero in their opening home game. I would love to be proved wrong!

Gee’s Pick:            Texans
Dan’s Pick:            Bengals

Week Five: Cardinals at 49ers

09 Sunday Oct 2016

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San Francisco 21
Arizona Cardinals 33

In a sometimes hard to watch game the Cardinal ran out eventual winners through a combination of taking advantage of turnovers and being more successful at getting to the quarterback.

It feels strange to say, but the offences in this game were eerily similar at times with strong running games and only one effective receiver but there were differences. The 49ers managed to rack up a lot of yards on the ground through a combination of effective straight ahead running by Carlos Hyde who ran for seventy-eight yards off twenty-two carries whilst Blaine Gabbert ran for seventy yards himself, including a quarterback keeper for a touchdown. However, Gabbert was only able to find receiver Jeremy Kerley consistently in the passing game, and Gabbert finished the game with an anaemic one hundred and sixty-two yards and two interceptions to one touchdown. He also spent a lot of time escaping from the Cardinals pass rush and yet still was sacked seven times, yet there were several long passes that Gabbert plane missed and it would not be a surprise if at some point if this inaccuracy loses him the starting job.

The Cardinals defence is still not where it was last year, with Tyrann Mathieu still coming back from his knee injury of last season and not looking himself, although the pass interference penalty that was called against him in the second half was very soft. However, the Cardinals were able to get consistent pressure with Markus Golden getting another two sacks to take his season total to six, and Calais Campbell adding an interception off a tipped pass to his two sacks. However, there are still questions in coverage opposite Patrick Peterson even if Marcus Cooper did cut under a route very nicely to get his interception. They got away with it in this game because the 49ers were unable to exploit open receivers when the opportunity presented itself but they will need to continue to improve if they are to get where they want as a team.

The Cardinals offence was struggling even before Drew Stanton was made starter through Carson Palmer’s concussion, particularly with both their starting guards being injured, but at least Stanton gave them a clean game with no interceptions and two touchdowns. However, he only threw for one hundred and twenty-four yards, most of them going to Larry Fitzgerald who looked as good as ever being constantly available in the passing game and doing his usual good job of blocking when required. Stanton was not as obviously inaccurate as Gabbert, and he threw a number of typical Bruce Arians’ long pass attempts, but could only connect on one to Fitzgerald. However, as good as Fitzgerald was, David Johnson was the other star for the Cardinals as he ran for one hundred and fifty-seven yards on an average yards per carry of over 5.5 and scoring two touchdowns.

The 49ers defence did a good job of breaking up long passes in this game, their secondary remaining close enough to the Cardinals’ receivers to break up plays and only allowing one long play when the corner covering Larry Fitzgerald slipped allowing him to score a twenty-nine yard touchdown. However, they were neither able to get enough pressure on Drew Stanton nor stop the run game, and whilst they did make the occasional good play behind or at the line to stop the run, overall this was a worrying number of points to give up given how limited the Cardinals were on offence.

The Cardinals got a much needed win, but they have a lot of improving to do if they are to drag themselves back into contention in their division, which given that like many people I was expecting the Cardinals to push for a Super Bowl, is a pretty major shift in expectations. The 49ers kept this game close for a while, and ran the ball effectively but I am not sure if between their two quarterbacks they have enough play to build on, but the 49ers were always a long term project given the state of their roster.

The Futility of Making Picks but Doing It Anyway

06 Thursday Oct 2016

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Our picks have not been pretty over the last two weeks, despite me building a five point advantage over Dan, but in a way the failures highlights why I love the NFL and there is a reason we keep picking games.

One of the characteristic things about the NFL is through a combination of deliberate attempts to foster parity like the Draft and salary cap, and the unpredictable nature of a game with such large rosters and high injury rates, it is incredibly hard for a team to remain consistently good from season to season.

The Carolina Panthers, who last year went 15-1 in the regular season on the way to the Super Bowl have got off to a 1-3 start with Cam Newton picking up a concussion in the fourth quarter of their week four loss to the Atlanta Falcons. They Panthers were already well behind when Newton left the game as their defence that was such a strength last year gave up over five hundred yards of passing with Julio Jones accounting for three hundred of them as he caught twelve passes from fifteen targets and scored a touchdown. Some of this is likely down to the loss of not just Josh Norman, but Charles Tillman and the addition of two rookie corners, but team have not been in synch on offence either despite getting Kelvin Benjamin back from injury. The worry would be for me that one player was able to get so many yards individually and that the coaches didn’t adjust, but there appears to be a real problem in Carolina.

The Arizona Cardinals who played so well last season are, struggling as their offence is misfiring, and they have a fallen to a 1-3 record despite having one of my favourite head coaches in the league. Things are not clicking for them on offence in the passing game, although David Johnson looks to be continuing on from his excellent rookie season last year. However, a stumbling offence and a defence that hasn’t gelled yet do not win football games, and so it is now less surprising that the Patriots were able to beat them in week one despite Tom Brady being suspended.

Meanwhile, to counter this point the Denver Broncos are 4-0 despite losing Payton Manning and a number of defensive starters. The defence is still playing to a very high standard, whilst the offence is getting improved results from a very inexperienced starter in Trevor Siemian, and continued to do enough a win when he hurt his should and Paxton Lynch came into the game. They look to be up there again this season, and it certainly seems that John Elway has a clear idea of what he wants and this has been delivering results so far for him.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule model of consistent success for the last decade has been the New England Patriots. They have started the season 3-1 despite Tom Brady’s suspension, but even the best teams don’t win all of their games and they came a cropper this week as having beat the Texans 27-0 in week three, they lost to the Bills 16-0. I wouldn’t bet against them this week with Brady returning, but we get these kinds of results fairly regularly and so it kind of makes a mockery of picking games each week.

There is a reason that I do it though, and not just because it gives me a something to write about. I don’t really like making predictions in terms of it proving one way or another that someone knows what they are talking about, it’s a standard requirement of covering sports, but at the end of the day if the outcome was so predictable there would be no reason to play the games. I like writing about what I have seen, what happened, and why I think it did.

However, picking games against the spread gives me a framework to look at each team, and helps highlight which teams I need to watch more. Of course you always tend to be interested in certain games each week, but by looking at what might happen, it keeps you focussed across the entire league and encourages sharpness, or in the last couple of weeks, distinctly dull. That said, I doubt many people were expecting for the Bills to beat the Patriots in the way they did, and that was far from the only surprise result.

So despite the poor record, we’ll keep ploughing on and hopefully things will improve, but you can never guarantee anything in the NFL.

Gee:      Week 4   6-9                       Overall   27-36
Dan:       Week 4   4-11                     Overall   22-41

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cardinals are in real trouble, with Carson Palmer not playing well even before he got a concussion and on a short week he shouldn’t play. Against almost any other team with the start they have had, this would strongly tempt me to pick against the Cardinals despite by admiration for Bruce Arians, but even though they are on the road in San Francisco, I can’t bring myself to pick the 49ers to win, especially after losing Navorro Bowman last week on defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

AAF: Week One – 49ers O-Line

18 Sunday Sep 2016

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For my first amateur adventure in film of the season, Dan asked me to take a look at the Los Angeles Rams’ visit to the San Francisco 49ers, and after putting out an appeal on social media Simon from the Gridiron Gentlemen was kind enough to suggest I look at their offensive line to see how they tamed the Rams.

I am by no means an expert on line play, but I do enjoy watching defensive lines so it will be nice to turn the tables for the week.

I think it may be impossible to completely shut out Aaron Donald, but he had a remarkably quiet game. The 49ers’ line was certainly good in pass protection, often giving Blaine Gabbert a clean pocket, even if that didn’t always result in a completed pass. In fact, several times he simply saw the space open up before him and scrambled for a gain or first down. The Rams didn’t get a sack in this game, and the closest they came was probably when Donald beat left guard Zane Beadles when matched up one on one with him but couldn’t get to Gabbert before he threw the ball and was called for roughing the passer. This was not the only occasion Donald got through the line, he put a lovely swim move on centre Daniel Kilgore in the third quarter when the Ram’s blitzed five, but Gabbert was able to get rid of the ball or escape for a run. It may have resulted in a three and out for the offence, but they avoided the turnover and in so doing they negated what should have been one of the strengths of the Rams.

The run blocking was less obviously good overall, but the highlight of the week for me watching the line was a play that Simon mentioned on twitter, which really was beautiful. At the end or their second drive in the first quarter, the 49ers were 2nd & 11 on the Rams’ 11 yard line when Carlos Hyde ran in the touchdown thanks to some beautiful blocking. The 49ers lined up with 12 personnel in a shotgun formation with both tight ends to the right of the formation, one on the line and one behind, and Carlos Hyde stood to the left of Blaine Gabbert. On the snap of the ball right guard Andrew Tiller pulled left and sealed Rams’ end Robert Quinn whilst left tackle Joe Staley crashed down on Cam Thomas playing tackle and then blocked middle linebacker Alec Ogletree. For the Rams, Mark Barron who is listed as a linebacker/safety and lined up close to the line had correctly identified the gap the 49ers were aiming for, but tight end Garrett Celek had also pulled left and cleared out Barron easily, allowing Hyde to run in the touchdown whilst barely being touched before he crosses the goal line. There weren’t too many such exciting run plays in this game, but as the line develops in their new scheme under head coach Chip Kelly this play serves as a tantalising example of what might be possible.

Dan asked me to watch this game as he wanted to know what happened, to which I think the answer is that the Rams offence was ineffective, which is hardly unusual, but also their offensive line was able to control what should have been one of the Rams big advantages. The 49ers face a very tough ask this week in Carolina, and the offence is hardly flowing but it’s possible that their line at least is heading in the right direction.

Rams, Broncos, and Special Preseason Week 3 Guests the Miami Dolphins

28 Sunday Aug 2016

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We are twelve days away from the start of the 2016 season, and the preseason week three games where the starters will see the most game time have already started. I will take you through the remaining week two games I have watched, as well as the visit of the Atlanta Falcons to Dan’s Miami Dolphins taking in my quarterback curse and general thoughts.

There is always a ton of news at this time of year, each team still has ninety players on its roster until the Tuesday deadline for cuts down to seventy-five. There are injuries, worries about the team, and a lot of fan angst as the positivity of the offseason hits the stark reality of playing games in the NFL. Already the Buffalo Bills are struggling with injury to numerous players as Rex Ryan’s team seem to beset by difficulty as they approach the season.

Meanwhile, Tony Romo has a fractured vertebrae in his back, meaning that Cowboys fans will be getting an extend look at whether Dak Prescott can be a starter in the NFL as Romo is not expected back until mid-season. Prescott’s play so far would give some confidence, but it is always best to treat play in the preseason with a healthy amount of scepticism. You will hear people talk about vanilla plans in preseason, but that’s overstating things somewhat. However, coaches have teams work on what they want to work on, so blitz heavy teams will blitz as they will be getting ready for the season. What is not happening, is the detailed team specific game planning that goes into every regular season game, and so whilst flashing in preseason is definitely an encouraging sign, the test, and particularly for quarterbacks, is whether you can adjust and counter what your opposition put in place to specifically stop you. Any player that demonstrates a weakness in their game can expect to see a heavy dose of whatever counters or exposes it until said player can show that they have cleared it up.

So on to the games as I get myself into season shape with game watching, and hopefully step up the number of articles next week.

The LA Rams managed to get a second win hosting the Kansas City Chiefs despite going in down at half time again. In fact, things got off to a bad start for them as they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive of the game for a second game in a row. For those watching Hard Knocks, you will have seen Alec Ogletree’s frustration  as well as him fighting to get the first team defence lined up correctly. That said, the Rams had a good response with Case Keenum leading the Rams’ offence straight back up the field to score a touchdown, although the plaudits ought to go to Todd Gurley who ran the ball effectively and scored the equalising touchdown. The coaches had seen enough and pulled Gurley from the game before he could get hurt.

The Rams defence then stiffened to get the ball immediately on a three and out, giving the offence the ball. The Rams moved the ball well again, with Case Keenum passing to Pharoh Cooper for a go ahead touchdown and so Keenum was finished for the game.

The big question for Rams quarterback Jared Goff is when will he be ready, but whilst the coaching staff are seeing progress, they also are stating that you can see rookie mistakes, and given that on his first two plays Goff threw an incomplete pass, then was sacked and fumbled the ball, you can see what they mean. That said, he did finish the game completing eight of his twelve attempts for eighty-two yards and threw his first touchdown as a professional to running back Malcolm Brown.

We will have to see how this team fare on the road, and how much momentum the Rams can carry into the regular season, but if nothing else, their attendance has been huge so far and they will want to make the most of the interest by winning games if they are to make the transition to LA successful.

Following a week one win, the Broncos lost their second game of preseason as they welcomed the San Francisco 49ers to Denver.

It feels like there is only one question hanging over the Broncos this offseason, despite the loss of some players on defence, and all the usual roster skirmishes, the big question for this team is who is going to start at quarterback.

For the second week in a row, I sat watching a Broncos starting quarterback thinking that this might work out and they threw an interception. This week it was Trevor Siemian that I managed to retroactively curse, but it is a big step that he got the start and looks to be making a strong case to be the opening night starter. Certainly Mark Sanchez didn’t help his cause by losing two fumbles. In fact, it may even be possible that he is being pressurised by rookie project Paxton Lynch who threw two touchdowns and an interception, although he does still look like a rookie and held onto the ball a bit too long for my liking at times. There was even some talk on commentary about giving Lynch the start next week to see if has the goods, but I would suggest it is a little early for such a move, yet I do feel that Trevor Siemian could well be the starter come week one.

The Broncos starting defence looks good, and even if the team did lose this game, I do think the Broncos are going to have another strong based on another good year on defence, and a run game that looks better than last year with CJ Anderson looking in good shape already and strong players behind him that could make for a good rotation to support an inexperienced quarterback.

The Broncos played the Rams last night, and I look forward to seeing how they went over the next couple of days. As a result of this fixture I had an extra game that I could watch, and Dan asked me to take a look at the Dolphins, who conveniently hosted the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night.

I still have questions about the way the Miami Dolphins have approached their offseason, and in particular how they are building their offensive line given that of the three interior linemen that started the game, all of them are inexperienced and/or changing permission. However, new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase is a quality offensive coordinator who got the Dolphins job off the back of good work with Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning.

The Dolphins started the game playing no huddle offense, and did look to be making good use of Ryan Tannehill skills, moving him with roll outs, running the ball, and passing. However, he again fell to the, I think this going to be good Gee curse, and as soon as I thought how good he looked, Tannehill immediately threw an interception.

However, the Dolphins ran out pretty convincing winners in this game, thanks to an ability to move the ball and a defence that restricted the Falcons all game and didn’t allow a touchdown.

There are questions at running back with Jay Ajayi battling health problems, Arian Foster looking good but at age thirty and a recent history of injuries you probably can’t rely on him all season. I do however like Damien Williams who has caught my eye before, but who has never broken out, yet in this game he had a couple of nice runs and scored a touchdown.

My worry for the Dolphins is the depth, and whilst I like what I saw, the defence still seems to be thin past the starters, and I’m not sure about the secondary barring Reshad Jones who is a really good safety.

I did like the look of second year defensive end Julius Warmsley who got a sack and showed good penetration on a couple of other plays, but whether this will be enough to get him off the practice squad and onto the roster only time will tell. Fellow second year end Cleyon Leign also got a quarterback hit from a lovely spin move playing inside at tackle in the fourth quarter. However, even if the line play is better this season for the defence, the back seven is where the questions are and without access coaching tape in preseason, it is hard to know for sure how they will fare given how much you can see them play. Certainly, whilst unable to score touchdowns, Falcons backup Matt Schaub looked pretty good completing ten of eleven passes against the backup secondary.

Overall, I expect the Dolphins to be better than last season as they will have a more coherent plan on offence, after the muddle that was last year’s experience with two head coaches, but I think they will continue to be hampered by how the roster is constructed. I do wish them well if only to cheer Dan up next season, I still remember how much it hurts for your team to miss the playoffs for a number of year even if the Bengals have had a better run of it recently.

Time is running out for players to make the roster, and with the regular season just around the corner, it’s nearly time for the games that count, although you try telling a player who is fighting to get on a roster that the remaining preseason games are meaningless.

The season is nearly here, and football already is.

Week 7 Seahawks at 49ers

25 Sunday Oct 2015

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This game is possibly easier to write up than it was to watch. The 49ers were thoroughly beaten on Thursday night in a game that convincingly demonstrated the offensive line deficiencies of both teams, but the Seahawks looked more like the team we are used to as they ran out 20-3 winners.

Unfortunately for the fans in San Francisco, the 49ers first drive setup a familiar pattern for the rest of the game as they failed to move the ball or get a first down as they went three and out. They would have a further five three and outs in this game and punted the ball a ridiculous nine times. The opening drive included a play where Colin Kaepernick had lots of time in the pocket, and he found Vance McDonald for a yard, but that was the only time in the game that this happened. The protection was awful from the offensive line, and whilst the 49ers were trying to help Kaepernick by the extensive use of play action to provide simple reads, he was sacked six times and was hit a further eight. As a consequence the 49ers were unable to get anything going through the air with only four catches to going to wide receivers, a total matched by Vernon Davis on his own in a stretch where it looked like the 49ers might be able to take advantage of Seattle’s problems against tight ends this season. It was not to be, and combine this with a failure to run the ball or sustain drives at all, and it was all too obvious why they only scored three points.

If the 49ers offence was bad in this game, some credit must go to the Seahawks’ defence which looked a lot more like the frightening unit of recent years. In particular their defensive line was incredibly effective with Michael Bennett and Clif Avril combining for five sacks between them and seven quarterback hits as they terrorised the 49ers o-line and made life miserable for Kaepernick. The legion of boom looked more like their dominant selves, although this was not a stern test and the play of Cary Williams still needs to be monitored. More worrying still for this team is that they came into this game ranked thirty-first by DVOA in pass defence against tight ends, and if they give up six catches for seventy yards to tight ends against this offence, then they are going to continue to have problems. There is still time to turn things round, but this is something I will be keeping an eye on over the coming weeks.

In fairness to the 49ers, their defence looked pretty solid, although losing strong safety Antoine Nethea is going to hurt, but they got pressure of their own and picked off Russell Wilson twice. Some of this was due to the Seahawks bad o-line, but I was impressed with second year outside linebacker Aaron Lynch who had two sacks and a further two QB hits, and was causing all sorts of problems from the outside. The big plays they gave up to Russell Wilson will worry them, but the offence was giving them very little time off as the Seahawks had the ball for over thirty-eight minutes, and right now I would not be overly concerned with where their defence is despite their lowly ranking as it didn’t look that bad to me.

The Seahawks got back to their old formula on offence, with the opening drive a statement of intent as they repeatedly ran Marshawn Lynch, who looked much more like himself and was finally able to find the end zone after five previous snaps inside the five yard time on the opening drive, finishing the game with one hundred and twenty-two yard. The passing game was a bit more hit and miss with some big chunk passes going for twenty-three, thirty-six, and forty-three yards and a touchdown, but Russell Wilson also through two interceptions, one on a long bomb that I’m not sure why he threw the ball into double coverage, and one in the end zone where he did not see the safety. Wilson was again scrambling to keep plays going and they could have given up more than five sacks if he had not been so mobile. If they can keep the running game going then they can recreate the pattern that has served them so well in recent years, but it is still strange for them to have given up so much for Jimmy Graham and not utilise his skills more.

The 49ers played horribly in this game, and whilst they lost a lot of players in the offseason, it is still startling to see how quickly what was once one of the best offensive lines in football has fallen apart. They need more talent on both sides of the ball, but they have to find a way to generate more than one hundred and forty-two yards of offence if they are going to add to their win total this season.

We are going to need to see more than one sold win against a poor 49ers team to say that the Seahawks are back in the hunt, but it was a good start. However, they still need to find a way to provide Russell Wilson with better protection, and their trouble against tight ends could really hurt them if they can’t get it resolved.

NFL Week 13: Thanksgiving Roundup

29 Saturday Nov 2014

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I had a really great time watching all three Thanksgiving games unfold, smiling as I enjoyed the football and watched all three of my picks go wrong. The games were interesting if one sided in all three contests so let’s take a look at what happened:

Bears @ Lions

The first thing that struck me about this game as I was watching it was that neither team was running the ball effectively. But whilst the Lions persevered with it and eventually had some success having established their passing game, the Bears ran for only eight yards from thirteen attempts and were variously using screens and passes to Forte out of the backfield as an alternative.

The problem with this is that Jay Cutler is not a rhythm passer, and if you are doing this then you are not making the best use of his arm talent. Only one of his two interceptions came at a point that truly affected the game, but the Bears simply did not move the ball well enough throughout this game to compete.

The Bears did move the ball effectively in their opening drive without attempting a single run, and thanks to a Matt Stafford fumble giving them good field position, they finished the first quarter with a fourteen-three lead, but they would only score a third quarter field goal for the rest of the game.

I have written before about the dangers of changing your mind when making picks, I wrote about I thought the Lions offence could get back on track and that I was worried about Jay Cutler’s play against this defence, but I changed my mind listening to other people talk about the game. Verily it played out how I thought and in the end the Lions won very comfortably.

The one thing I will remember with the Lions offence is that their o-line is not very good. The Bears have not been rushing the passer that well this season, but Jared Allen was getting consistent pressure to go with his pair of sacks. Combine this with it being Matthew Stafford’s first year in a new system and you can possibly see why he has struggled. He spread the ball around in this game and the Lions have some very winnable games coming up so we will have to see how they go.

Eagles @ Cowboys

This was a really interesting game. I thought that the Cowboys would win as I had more faith in the Cowboys o-line and Tony Romo than in Mark Sanchez, but I was wrong.

The Eagles defence played very well in this game, and although Tony Romo had a lot of time behind the Cowboys excellent o-line, they could not sustain drives. I put part of this down to the play calling as they were very conservative and having established that they would run on first down predominantly, they could have tried to use play action but didn’t. However, the other problem was that Romo just didn’t play that well, he missed throws and only managed a couple of long passes whilst racking up two interceptions and no touchdowns.

The Eagles on the other hand ran the ball very effectively, and whilst I could still see the things that worry me about Sanchez, he was efficient throwing for two hundred yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys’ defence were able to hold the Eagles to field goals for four drives, but struggled to get stops and the different in the pace of the offence showed up with the Eagles running seventy-five plays to the Cowboys’ fifty-eight despite their only being fifty seconds between their time of procession.

It appears that whilst they Eagles are a step down from the likes of the Packers or Patriots, but they’re also a step above the Cowboys who I am a little worried about. They did not look good in this game and I can see them having problems when they play the Colts and have to visit the Eagles

Seahawks @ 49ers

Sometimes you get a pick wrong and it was beyond your control, and sometime you feel like an idiot. I knew that the 49ers were struggling on offence but they were horrible in this game.

The much vaunted o-line from last year has regressed drastically, and Colin Kaepernick’s play has gone backwards too. This team managed a paltry 164yards of total offence and were unable to get either the run or pass working in this game. I don’t think it is a good idea to just avoid Richard Sherman’s side of the field like the Packers did in the opening game of the season, but you can’t afford to throw the kind of balls Kaepernick did for his pair of interceptions. In fact, he’s probably lucky he was only picked off twice as he looked horrible throwing the ball all game.

However, the San Francisco defence looked as good as their offence looked bad. They were not getting much time off the field thanks to the offence but after a touchdown in the first quarter, they held the Seahawks to field goals for the rest of the game.

The problem for the 49ers is that part of their difficulties on offence is their quarterback, but this is very much not the case for the Seahawks. They are just as reliant on the run game for production, but this is because of the quality of skill players Russell Wilson has to throw to. However, his ability to escape the rush is as good as anyone in the league and he seems to have a great feel for when to run and when to get rid of the ball. I get the feeling that receivers will be a point of emphasis for the Seahawks in the offseason.

Overall, I think that the 49ers will fall short of the playoffs and that there could well be an overhaul of the coaching staff. This would not be a surprise given that Jim Harbaugh is already half out the door thanks to his broken relationship with owernership/management, but something has to be done about the offence as Greg Roman is simply not getting it done with that unit.

The Seahawks look to be coming together at the right time, but there are structural issues with the roster and whilst I don’t think anyone will relish playing them, they are a couple of levels below the monster they were last season.