Monthly Archives: November 2018

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Thirteen

29 Thursday Nov 2018

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So we roll into the week thirteen picks with me one point ahead of Dan’s dad and nine over Dan so let’s see what this week holds.

Gee: Week 12 11-4 Overall 92-84
Dan: Week 12 6-9 Overall 83-93

Saints @ Cowboys (+7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have dragged themselves into the race for the NFC East thanks to a three game win streak that includes two victories over divisional opponents but that run of good from is about to crash into the juggernaut that is the New Orleans Saints. Not only do the Cowboys have to contend with Drew Brees, but thanks to playing in a dome they don’t even have bad weather as a factor to hamper the veteran quarterback. I’m not sure how much help that would be given the effectiveness of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in the running game and though their defence only ranks fourteenth by DVOA, that is more than effective given with the offensive efficiency the Saints possess. I can see the value argument that the home team on a Thursday night getting seven and a half points should be a good bet, and I may well regret this, but I just can’t look past the Saints given their form. The game should be a cracker and the Cowboys could well prove me wrong but I don’t think them covering this line is the more likely event to occur.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

‘Saints for me I think tonight. Really struggling to pick with any level of certainty here but I think the Saints run is going to continue, and they’ll win by more than a TD.’

Week Thirteen Trivia

‘As we close in on the end of this season every point matters and Gee currently has a slender 2 point lead in the Trivia stakes.

The main Picks league is even closer and having knocked lumps out of each other in Week 12 no one is more surprised than myself that it’s still tight at the top.

Week 12 Trivia asked a very simple question – At which college did Peyton Manning play?

It’s a question that more people will know the answer to, but perhaps why that snippet of information had stuck. Well the answer is:

University of Tennessee Volunteers from 1994 to 1997

Even I’m not so picky as to insist on the Volunteers bit but for the first time since week 8 both Dan and Gee scored a point.

Week 13 is a little more random but did appear as a fact in QI. I’ve checked and it holds up so:

What rule change did Oakland’s receiver Lester Hayes instigate?

I’m intrigued as to the answers I get on this one.’

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What Happens Next?

28 Wednesday Nov 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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Things managed to get worse for the Bengals this weekend and I will be writing about that, but I thought I would zip round the league first before letting rip to give those who don’t wish to indulge my reaction to the problems besetting the orange and black something to read.

There weren’t as many as in the previous week, but the NFL still managed to have four games separated by a field goal and a couple of upsets.

I’m going to start with a game I didn’t see, but on Monday night the Houston Texans won their eighth straight game to remain two games clear at the top of the AFC South. I suspect they are possibly the division leader I have written about the least this season and I will need to watch them again soon to get a better idea of what the transformation looks like. The obvious thing might be to take a look at their top five defence by DVOA that has JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney fit and combining for eighteen and a half sacks, but they are also getting enough out of an offence ranked twenty-first by DVOA to win and with them finding a way to run the ball and win with Deshaun Watson back at quarterback that side of the ball might be the more interesting study. Still, they have definitely established themselves as team worthy of more attention and I hope this paragraph doesn’t jinx them!

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a somewhat less successful weekend, losing on the road to the Denver Broncos. It feels like at least once a season the Steelers lose a game on the road they shouldn’t and as much as I admire what Mike Tomlin achieves in Pittsburgh this could once again lose them a shot of a playoff bye and home advantage later in the playoffs. They have a big game next week against the LA Chargers who got themselves back on track with a big win over the Arizona Cardinals and this meeting of AFC teams looks like it will be one of the highlights of the week thirteen.

With the Rams and Chiefs on their bye week, the New Orleans Saints were the only one of the top tier teams (according to me) in action in week twelve and ran out convincing winners in the evening Thanksgiving game against the Atlanta Falcon who will have to regroup in the offseason having been broken by injury. The New England Patriots got a healthy enough to win over the New York Jets but even though Rob Gronkowski returned to the field, he does not seem to be the same dominant tight end of previous years. Of their five remaining opponents the Patriots only have to face two with winning records and I will be very interested to see how they do hosting the Vikings next week and when they travel to Pittsburgh in week fifteen. I should also mention that the Patriots are yet to play the Dolphins in Miami where the Pats have lost in four out of the last five visits.

The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions comfortably despite not being able to start Mitchell Trubisky and that leaves us with the NFC East as the only division that I haven’t discussed the division leaders. With Washington falling to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and the Eagles scraping a win over the New York Giants on Sunday things remain tight in the east. The Cowboys have managed to get themselves equal to Washington but have the daunting task of hosting the Saints this Thursday night, whilst Washington and Philadelphia have the first of their two games against each other this weekend. Given the injuries to both Washington and Philadelphia most people seem to think the momentum is with the Cowboys right now and it certainly seems like the contest is going to go down to the wire in terms of winning the division. It is also worth noting that whilst the arguments about value are still valid, the Cowboys trade for Amari Cooper does appear to be making a difference and his breakaway touchdowns was pretty much the difference between them and Washington on Thursday.

This is your two game warning before I dig into the mess that is the Bengals right now.

The two games on Sunday I enjoyed watching were the Seattle Seahawks winning out over the Carolina Panthers despite the Panthers gaining well over double the amount of yards on the ground and seemingly moving the ball with more ease. However, costly failures in the red zone and some interesting decisions to go for it on fourth down led the Panthers to their third straight loss. I don’t know if a division game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the right situation to try to turn things round, but they really need to get a win thus week if they want to stay in the race for a wildcard place.

Finally, whilst looking good for stretches of the Packers’ game against the Minnesota Vikings, it appears that Aaron Rodgers might be mortal after all. I would suggest the problem is more that the offence he has been given doesn’t seem to have evolved under Mike McCarthy in recent years despite the developments round the league, but after a good start that saw the Packers go 14-7 up at the start of the second quarter, they failed to score again until near the end of the fourth quarter and ultimately fell 17-24. At 4-6-1 the playoffs are not completely out of reach but they would have to run the table and hope to get lucky. The big sticking point in the final five games that jumps out on the schedule is their visit to Chicago in week fifteen, especially as the Packers have gone 0-6 on the road.

Okay, so here we go. Final warning.

So the Bengals season is hanging by a thread and only the most optimistic of super fans can even contemplate things turning around. Not only did the Bengals lose the battle of Ohio to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, but they lost Andy Dalton to thumb injury for the rest of the season. Now as it happens Jeff Driskell is pretty good as backup quarterbacks go and it’s not as if the Bengals were competing for the Super Bowl, but there are real problems with this team which stretch further than the injury list. The offence still ranks sixteenth despite the injuries that have hampered this side of the ball but the defence have been woeful all season. The Bengals have already fired one defensive co-ordinator and there are now questions yet again about whether it is time for Marvin Lewis to step aside. Now I do think it is time for this to happen, in fact it might have been time a couple of seasons ago but I understand the reluctance to do so and it does make me nervous. Marvin Lewis took a perennially underachieving team and made them respectable, frequently one of the most talented rosters in the league who went to the playoffs five seasons in a row between 2011-15 but this looks to be the third season that the Bengals miss out and something has to change. However, as much I would like to see an inventive offensive minded coach take over the franchise as that seems to be what is required to win with the current set of rules, replacing Lewis worries me because of the tendency for Mike Brown to hire people he knows and the rumours that Hue Jackson is a potential candidate that surfaced over the weekend.

Yes Hue Jackson, who has a 11-44-1 overall record and who just went 3-36-1 with the Cleveland Browns. Now I’m not necessarily saying he’s a bad coach, he did great things with the Bengals’ offence as a coordinator before he left for Cleveland, but I’ve seen nothing that makes me think that as a head coach he could turn things round. Look at how the Browns have been doing in recent weeks. Not to mention the shots that Baker Mayfield has been taking both on the field and after the game in the press. There is still a lot of talent on this roster, and it might just need a new voice to turn things round or it could need more of a re-build but who knows if the Bengals infrastructure above the head coach can facilitate such efforts. I have no idea what happens next and that’s what makes me nervous. So much of an NFL franchise’s success lies in getting the behind the scenes right to get the right coach with the roster at the right moment, and yes with the right quarterback. It appears that as Bengals fans, we live in interesting times….

Anyway, I shall leave you with a comment from Dan as we were discussing quarterbacks after his misguided shot at the red rifle yesterday.

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Seasons on Life-Support

27 Tuesday Nov 2018

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We really are at the business end of the season now, and believe it or not the next time I post we’ll be in December – a scary thought! Thursday night will see the start of Week 13, meaning that most teams have just 5 games to either seal their position in the play-offs or at the very least finish the season on a high. But that is going to be a little easier for some than others…

Sunday started for me with a trip to the Rugby – I’m not a huge fan but my wife is a Leicester Tigers season ticket holder so I went to keep her company. And while there I did the hilarious thing that I always do… I referred to Tries as Touchdowns and time periods in Quarters rather than halves. I still don’t understand why when they kick the PAT they get 2 points rather than 1! So as you can imagine, I wasn’t particularly in her good books.

I’m not sure I’ve ever mentioned this on the blog, but my wife is also a Cincinnati Bengals fan, so just imagine how little she must have enjoyed Sunday night’s pretty one-sided affair between the Bengals and the Browns, given that I’d already given her the raging hump! To their credit, the Browns looked good on Sunday night, but you do get the feeling that the Bengals season is very much on life-support, if it’s not already called it a day. This, largely, is due to the impact that the loss of Average Andy Dalton [How many times has Ryan Tannehill got your Dolphins to the playoff? – Ed.] is going to have on the team.

Luckily the Dolphins, while not able to get the W on Sunday against the Colts, have just got their Quarterback back under Centre, so I feel a little more optimistic than the Black and Orange half of this blog, but not by a huge amount. Miami played well in one of the later games on Sunday. In fact, I seriously think if it wasn’t for some poor play-calling in the last couple of drives, we would now have a winning record rather than a losing one. I do feel that for the first time this year, some of the blame for this weekend’s loss has to sit with Adam Gase and his coaching team. In the ‘fins final drive, with just a couple of minutes on the clock and the game tied at 24, we were backed up behind our own 15 yard line. Instead of really going for it, we played a couple of short inside runs, a throw for no gain, and I think there was even a loss of 5 yards through a Penalty. This unfortunately lead to us having to Punt it back to the Colts, giving them the opportunity to drive down the field and win the game with the last kick, which the did successfully.

It’s a frustrating one, because I actually thought other than that we looked pretty good. But with 13:36 remaining in the game, we were winning by 10 points. For me, we need to be a lot smarter with play calling in that situation. Tactically, surely we should have either tried to run down the clock and played for overtime, or go for it and try to win! The very last thing we should have done would be to turn the ball over. As it happened, we did just that, giving them the ball with 2:38 left on the clock, all of their Timeouts, and none of ours, and made it far too easy for one of the best (if not THE best) kickers ever to have graced the league to win them the game.

There was a bit of a scary moment too – once again with too many receiving targets already sat in the medical room, Danny Amendola took a serious knock which looked like it may have ended his game, but luckily he managed to shake it off and return to the field.

Oh and we scored on our first drive, and got our first Offensive touchdowns since Week 8!!

Elsewhere, the Vikings got the win over the Packers, and the Buffalo Bills got themselves a Win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The latter of those two games has seen the announcement of some mid-season changes in Florida. Nathaniel Hackett has been relieved of Offensive Coordinator duties (a move which WR Dede Westbrook has said that the Offence need to take responsibility for), Blake Bortles has been announced for the bench next week in favour of Cody Kessler, and Running Back Leonard Fournette has been suspended for a game for Unsportsmanlike Behaviour and Unneccesary Roughness calls on Sunday night which saw him ejected from the game. Not a good time to be a Jags fan.

For the first time in 6 or 7 weeks now, the Rams aren’t the favourites for the Super Bowl in terms of betting odds – that position has been taken by the New Orleans Saints who to be fair are looking fantastic after another win this week over the Falcons. All in all, this makes the betting chart look like this:

So what’s coming up this week? Well, Rams/Lions will be a good game. The Rams are just being The Rams having lost just one game so far, and the Lions 4-7 record really doesn’t reflect how well they’ve played to this point this season. And the Vikings/Patriots match will be an entertaining affair too, I think – both good Offensive teams which should make for a good game.

And of course, I’ll score 6 in the Picks – because… that’s what I do at the minute.

Which games are you looking forward to? How are you feeling about your team going into the back end of the season? Drop me a line on twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

2018 Week Twelve Picks

25 Sunday Nov 2018

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I went two for one in the Thanksgiving games, largely because Amari Cooper scored two breakaway touchdowns for the Cowboys, demonstrating his speed and some poor tackling in Washington’s secondary. So now we roll into the rest of the week twelve games and an enormous game for the Bengals but before all of that, there is this week’s trivia question where somehow I hold a two-point lead over Dan.

‘Moving onto Week 12 this should not prove too taxing and I’d like to know for which college did Peyton Manning play?’

Now, this was one of those questions where when I read it the answer was on the tip of my tongue, but I couldn’t quite remember it. However, leaving it for a couple of days allowed the answer to bubble up to the surface and I believe he played for Tennessee.

‘Having said the other week that I don’t pay any attention to the college game, I think this is one of those bits of information I’ve heard somewhere before and it’s just stuck with me for some reason. I think Payton Manning played college football for the University of Tennessee.’

Jaguars @ Bills (+3.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars leave Florida to head up to a cold Buffalo where the Bills are coming off a bye and look to have Josh Allen coming back from his elbow injury. This does not look to be a great spot for a team with a six game losing streak and if I’m getting this many points with a warm weather team heading into the cold who haven’t been very good I’m going to grab them. I’m not saying the Jaguars can’t win this game, but I kind of fancy the Bills to keep this one within a field goal at list.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Browns @ Bengals (-3.5)

This is a big game for the beleaguered Cincinnati Bengals who managed to keep the game close with the Ravens last week and will be desperate to get back to winning ways against the franchise that carries the name of their founder Paul Brown. The Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye and a win against the Atlanta Falcons and their top defence could very well give a banged up Bengals’ offence problems, particularly with left tackle Cordy Glenn having back issues and Myles Garrett coming to town. It also looks like AJ Green is unlikely to play and suddenly things are looking tricky. I think the Bengals could very well win it, but this feels like a tight game to me and the extra half point has me picking the other way. I would love to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Raiders @ Ravens (-10.5)

The Oakland Raiders got their second win of the season in Arizona last week, but now they have to come all the way across the country to face a Baltimore team that got a spark last week with Lamar Jackson’s first start at quarterback and who is starting again this week due to Joe Flaco’s hip injury. I don’t know if the Ravens are planning another twenty plus carries for their quarterback this week, (Jackson ran the ball twenty-six times against the Bengals last week) but if the Ravens can do enough on offence to complement their tough defence they could make a late push for the playoffs and will at least cause a lot of teams difficulties. I fancy them to win this game at home, but the line does give me a little pause. There is a gulf between these two teams in terms of DVOA ranking and with the Raiders facing a second road game and travelling across the country I don’t expect them to win and I can’t quite bring myself to pick them either.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

Both teams are coming off a bye and the New York Jets were last seen losing by thirty-one points to the Bills, whilst the Patriots lost by twenty-four points to the Titans. This makes this line a tricky one as I know which team I back to bounce back, and the Patriots largely have a history of beating big lines in games they are favoured for but this feels like a lot of points. However, given this is Bill Belichick coming off a bye I’m going to back the Patriots to get right and that time hasn’t finally caught up with Tom Brady, although it has to happen at some point.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Giants @ Eagles (-6.5)

The formula is all wrong for Philadelphia Eagles this season and they have so many injuries in the secondary that I think this line is too big. I don’t expect a repeat of what happened against the Saints last week, but the Eagles have lost three straight home games and welcome a New York Giants team who have won two straight. They have enough options in the passing game to make life difficult for a patched up secondary and with Saquon Barkley hitting holes with power and picking up the hard yards last week, I think the Giants could keep this one within a touchdown. I could be horribly wrong about this.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

49ers @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This is a difficult game to pick thanks to the indifferent form of the San Francisco 49ers who are coming across the country to play a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who have moved the ball on offence but really struggled to do much else, including win after a decent start. I really want to stay away from this game, but in the end I’ll plump for the home team and hope, but it very much feels like a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Panthers (-3.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as it should tell us a lot about a Carolina Panthers team who have wobbled in recent weeks. They face a Seattle Seahawks team who have re-found their formula of defence and running the ball and come into this game with extra rest having beaten the Packers on Thursday night in week eleven. I think this will be a close game and with that extra half point I am going to grab the Seahawks to stay within a field goal but the game could easily go either way.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Cardinals @ Chargers (-12.5)

The LA Chargers dropped a clanger against the Denver Broncos last week but should have more than enough to deal with a woeful Arizona Cardinals team who are really struggling. However, this is a very big line for a team whose home support isn’t that great and it really makes me wonder. However, I think the Chargers will have a point to prove and with the league’s fourth best offence by DVOA going against the thirty-first defence I’m going to worriedly swing for the fences with this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Steelers @ Broncos (+3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their win last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars but it wasn’t exactly pretty and we should remember that Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t look like the same quarterback on the road. The Steelers should have more than enough to deal with the Broncos in Denver as their defence is just not the same as recent years and their offence hasn’t improved that much. The DVOA stats really like Denver though, as in really likes them with an overall ranking of ninth but I have more faith in the Steelers. It is tempting to grab the points, particularly with that important half point over a field goal and in the end, that’s what I’m going to go with but I’m not exactly confident.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Dolphins @ Colts (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are 1-4 on the road this year, but are expected to get Ryan Tannehill back from injury this week, although whether the oft-injured quarterback can make a big difference is somewhat up in the air given how beat up the Dolphins are generally. I have just watched the coaching tape of the Colts’ offence putting up thirty-eight points on the Titans’ defence and despite these two teams having the same 5-5 record, they feel like they are on very different trajectories. The question is though, can the Dolphins make it a tough game and though I’m not ruling it out, the form is so different and the Colts have a quarterback so I’m going to go with the large line again, which likely could make Dan happy if I’m wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Packers @ Vikings (-3.5)

This is a huge game in the NFC North, with the Packers ill able to afford another loss and the Vikings needing the win to stay in contact with the Bears who currently have a three game lead thanks to their Thanksgiving win over the Lions. There seems to be something not quite right with the Vikings this year, both on defence and offence whilst the Packers have been up and down as well. The Vikings have had a real home advantage since moving to their current stadium, but I hate picking against Aaron Rodgers and the extra half point really makes me nervous. In fact it makes me nervous enough that I’m going to pick the Packers, but it would not surprise me if I’m wrong again.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The question of this game is are the Houston Texans a touchdown better than the Tennessee Titans and I’m really not sure I know the answer to that one. The Titans have been so up and down this season and are coming off a big loss to the Colts having beaten the Patriots soundly in week ten, whilst the Texans have won seven straight games to be 7-3. There is a solid gap between these two teams by DVOA ranking and with a defence that seems to have finally got JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney fit at the same time I’m leaning Texans to win but I’m not sure by this much. In the end I don’t feel strongly enough to lay this many points so I’ll nervously grab the Titans.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

AAF: Colts Offence

25 Sunday Nov 2018

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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For this week’s amateur adventure in films I have looked at the Indianapolis Colts’ offence against the Tennessee Titans, taking my inspiration from the Ringer’s NFL Podcast and Robert May’s enthusiasm for what was going on in Indianapolis.

There was a lot of flux for the Colts this offseason, not least of which was that they thought their new head coach would be the Patriots’ Josh McDaniels but after he had a change of heart and decided to stay in New England after the Super Bowl loss they has to find someone else. They decided to grab the winning offensive co-ordinator from the Super Bowls in Frank Reich whose main job was to revive the form of Andrew Luck, a quarterback who early in career talked of liking to get hit but who after playing though injury was not even throwing NFL footballs at the start of training camp and hadn’t taken a competitive snap in over a year.

It may have taken a few weeks to get going, and there was a lot of noise about Luck being pulled out of the game for a Hail Mary attempts as his backup Jacoby Brissett had the stronger arm, but it certainly seems to be flowing now. So how does it look?

The Colts played predominantly with 11 personnel but with good mix 12 and 13 personnel mixed in and one of my favourite was a grouping of 21 personnel with rookie running back Nyheim Hines lining up at receiver and Marlon Mack staying as the running back.

The Colts would usually stick with a single back in the backfield but would motion other players back there as well as mixing in some motion, in particular with the tight ends. Speaking of which, one of my favourite performances in this game was from Jack Doyle. I’m sure the focus of most discussions about the Colt’s offence would centre of Andrew Luck or TY Hilton and the big name in the tight end room would perhaps be Eric Ebron, but I loved the versatility of Doyle who was the every down tight end who moved round the formation, both blocking and as running routes whilst Ebron came in as the move receiving tight end.

However, focussing on Andrew Luck it seems the offence is really suiting him and part of that is that he’s getting the ball out quickly. Gone are the days of him holding onto the ball and trying to tough things out to make a play, the ball is coming out quickly with a good balance of run and play action keeping the defence honest. This is not a run first teams but a modern balanced offence, and in the second quarter the Colts scored almost a perfect play action touchdown where the fake handoff drew in the Titans’ single high safety and TY Hilton flew past his corner to score a sixty-eight yard touchdown. This is something that is possible when you have sprinkled enough run plays into the mix from the same formations that you are passing from and although the Colts only just made one hundred yards on twenty-eight carries in the run game, they established it enough to make the play fakes work. There were also some really good timing throws throughout this game to a number of different receivers although star of the show in terms of receiving was undoubtedly TY Hilton who caught all nine of the balls thrown his way and finished with one hundred and fifty-five yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Finally, whilst I was not focussing on the offensive line, the athleticism of Ryan Kelly caught my eye as it is not often that you see a centre pull as frequently in the run game as Kelly did and the whole line had a good day as they did not give up a sack and Luck only had to move a couple of times to avoid the rush even if a couple of throws were affected by pressure.

This was obviously a good game to see the Colts offence running smoothly, they managed a total of three hundred and ninety-seven yards, five touchdowns and gave up no sacks. They ran the ball well enough for the play action fake to be legitimate in the defence’s mind and structurally they were clever enough to elicit comment as I watched the game. It’s not that uncommon for me to talk aloud to the tape (I’m sure my partner loves this habit…) but it is kind of a test on offence and between their motion, route combinations and fakes they got enough separation for Andrew luck to complete twenty-three of his twenty-nine passes. The Colts have won their last four games and after a tough start to the season seem to be heading in the right direction with a large part of that being the position they are putting Andrew Luck in to succeed. It took me by surprise that Luck is already twenty-nine but as he heads into his prime it looks like the Colts are finally giving him the team to win consistently and they will have a large amount of cap room in the offseason. Don’t look now, but with the focus this season seemingly on the young quarterbacks coming up under Tom Brady and Drew Brees, Andrew Luck is reminding us all that he’s still there and should not be overlooked.

Competition Thursday: 2018 Thanksgiving

22 Thursday Nov 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

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So happy Thanksgiving to all those marking the day, and welcome to the start of week twelve and another Competition Thursday!

We saw some changes in the picks competition as I scrambled to the top of the league and Dan closed the gap to me and his dad. I need to sit down and do a proper tot-up in the trivia competition, although I feel like regardless of who gets the most points out of Dan and I, the real winner is Dan’s dad given how often he’s stumped us. Also, I’m hoping to mock up some of the logos in the colours of the Vikings and Dolphins to show what could be at stake.

We have to get this post up early today as games start this afternoon so with no further ado, let’s get started with this year’s Thanksgiving games.

Gee:     Week 11   6-7              Overall   81-80
Dan:     Week 11   7-6              Overall   77-84

Bears @ Lions (+4.5)

The first game of the day sees the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears and I know how I want to pick this game but I do have a slight hesitation. The Bears proved something to me last week with their win against the Vikings and whilst I think they are a tier below the Saints and Rams in the NFC, they have the third best record in the conference and deserve to go into this divisional game as favourites. The Detroit Lions are coming off a narrow win against the Panthers that was helped by Graham Gano missing a field goal and an extra point that must have contributed to the decision of Ron Riviera to go for the failed two point conversion at the end of the game that handed the win to Detroit. The Lions will want to play tough in this biggest of national games, but the Bears beat them by ten two weeks ago and so here is my pause because this is just enough points to make me hesitate. However, in the end I’m going to lay the points and trust the Bears. Don’t let me down now.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Washington @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight and suddenly stand an improved chance in the NFC East thanks to the injury to Alex Smith. In fact Washington has been beset by injuries all this season but have managed to keep finding ways to muddy up games and keep themselves not just competitive but atop their division. However, I can see why people have started to favour the Cowboys to make a run but only one of their wins has been by more than a touchdown this season and so that really does make me pause in this one. The unknowns in Washington make me nervous, and on a short week it helps that Colt McCoy has been there four years but I’m really not sure if this line is too big, particularly as Washington currently rank better than Dallas by DVOA. This is a heated rivalry shown in prime time with the nation watching and given the familiarity of both teams, I’m going to back the underdogs and pick Washington keep it closer than eight points.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Falcons @ Saints (-13.5)

The Atlanta Falcons had a minor surge a few weeks ago, but they are still very injured and having lost to the Browns and Cowboys back to back it is hard to see them turning things round in New Orleans. This is a very big line but the Saints have scored ninety-nine points in their last two games, and in the next one back they beat the Rams by ten and so I’m going to swing for the fences and say Drew Brees and crew keep rolling, particularly as I don’t see head coach Sean Payton letting up on a divisional opponent in prime time.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Week Twelve Trivia

‘As we near the third trimester of the season the Trivia competition has once again got the pundits thinking – and that is the whole point really.

OK, for week 11 I pitched a curved ball and asked how many teams do NOT have a Professional Cheerleading squad.

Of the 32 teams is it A, 0 – 5;             B, 6 – 10;          C, 11 – 15;       or D,  16+

Using multiple choice was not to suggest that they were struggling, but just that it is another format which could add interest.

Gee made some excellent logic and had he added The Bills and The Lions he would have had a clean sweep of the 7 teams who don’t.

Dan was partially right when he spotted a potential wording issue by my asking for a Professional squad. Well that was not me being tricksy but to cover the Packers who use a Collegiate squad, not professional, when needed.

So the answer is B which covers the 7 teams.

Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers,  and the Green Bay Packers (with their Collegiate squad)

Moving onto Week 12 this should not prove too taxing and I’d like to know for which college did Peyton Manning play?

Easy, right? Well maybe Week 13 might prove a more sticky task.’

The NFL Spectacle

21 Wednesday Nov 2018

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The NFL got what it wanted on Monday night with a spectacular game that lived up to the hype. With a game that ends 51-54 you can understand all the talk being of the Rams win and the offences involved (to be fair there was over a thousand yards), but there are a couple of other things I wanted to mention from this game. Firstly, for all the talk of the yards gained and quarterbacks, perhaps the best player on the field Monday was Aaron Donald got two sack fumbles and caused enough pressure with his teammates that Patrick Mahomes threw three interceptions and fumbled the ball away twice. In fact, if I was the Chiefs I would not be overly worried by this loss as despite five turnovers and one hundred and thirty-five yards of penalties they only lost by a field goal. On a neutral field they will still fancy their chances but both teams could do with learning the lessons of the late game as they each manufactured chunk gains and neither seemed to worry about running out the clock and this could very well have lost either team the game. I’m not advocating for the old fashioned three yards and a cloud of dust runs, but a little manipulation of the clock could have definitely given one team an advantage.

So if Monday was a feast of offence that also featured multiple defensive touchdowns, the rest of the week showed that as much as anything, competitive games is what drives interest in the NFL. In fact the winning margin for eleven out of the thirteen week eleven games was five points or closer.

Other notable achievements included Lamar Jackson carrying the ball twenty-seven (yes 27) times against the Cincinnati Bengals in the Ravens’ 24-21 win. A double blow as the Ravens managed to beat the Bengals but not quite by enough for me to get my pick right. The Ravens only had Jackson throw nineteen times and the number of carries he had cannot be sustainable, but I will be interested to see how they develop the offence for him over the next few weeks. I do wonder how much of this game plan was about attacking the Bengals’ porous run defence and their inexperienced linebackers. The injury situation doesn’t look to be turning round quickly for the Bengals, but they were at least competitive in this game and if they can get AJ Green back they could have some success in a schedule that looks like it might lighten up a little in the coming weeks even if there are still visits to Pittsburgh and the LA Chargers left.

I picked the Colts to win but did not expect them to blow out the Tennessee Titans 38-10 and having heard Robert Mays wax lyrical about their offence and what they have done for Andrew Luck this season I will be taking a look at that for my coaching tape study this week. The other blow out this week was the New Orleans Saints rolling over the Philadelphia Eagles whose injury problems at corner as reached critical in terms of numbers, but the worst injury news is Washington’s who lost Alex Smith who broke both bones in his right leg in thirty-three years to the day since Joe Theismann had the same injury. With the advances in training and medicine it likely won’t be the career ender that it was for Theismann but Washington’s hopes for the season now rest on Colt McCoy. The Houston Texans managed to win out in this game though to maintain their two game lead on the Colts and Titans whilst stretching their win streak to seven.

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their revenge win in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team who have not got the memo about how modern offences should be run. They called a run play forty-one times with Leonard Fournette having twenty-eight carries and not making one hundred yards. Clearly they didn’t want to put the game in Blake Bortles’ hands but they might not of had to if they had selected say Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson who were both available in the 2017 draft when they picked Fournette. This is not a direct comparison of players so much as a comment on taking a running back that early and using them in this old fashioned way. You can still feature a running back, look at Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara or Kareem Hunt but they need space to work and the days of the workhorse back running up the middle have been well and truly superseded.

A team who are very much running such a modern offence are the Chicago Bears, who are getting enough production from a developing Mitchell Trubisky and a defence that ranks first in the league by DVOA and this got them a big divisional win against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend. However, one of the other NFC team of the tier below the Saints and Rams lost whilst going for two at the end of the game as the Carolina Panthers stumbled against the Detroit Lions. This only furthers my confusion at the Lions’ set of impressive teams beaten, but also asks the question of whether the last games the Panthers have lost is a blip or the start of a trend. As usual, only time will tell but with the Seattle Seahawks getting their win on Thursday night over the Green Bay Packers the Seahawks could still have a shot at the playoffs whilst the Packers have probably lost too many games already unless Aaron Rodgers really is a dragon.

The New York Giants recorded their second straight win, this time over the flailing Tampa Bay Buccaneers who look like they need a new plan in the offseason. It is too late for the Giants to pull themselves into the race for the NFC East even with Washinton’s problems at quarterback, and likely the same for the Eagles but with another win the Dallas Cowboys could get themselves back into the conversation, particularly as they host Washington this Thanksgiving. The Cowboys seem to have worked out how to feature Ezekiele Elliott more on offence and with a defence that I’m surprised is only ranked twenty-first by DVOA but has been good enough, they at least stand a chance of winning their remaining division games and getting themselves into the mix.

The LA Chargers run of only losing to really good teams fell to the Denver Broncos this week, which is the kind of divisional games that can cause such results but they hope this won’t be a return to the getting in their own way Chargers that started last season. The Oakland Raiders however, got their second win of the season against the Arizona Cardinals in a reminder that if you like the points, you should really take the points even if the team have been bad.

The teams at the bottom of the league all seem to be taking games off each other whilst the cream of the NFL really seems to be rising and it seems like the season is slipping away for all three of us at The Wrong Football. There’s still time for one of our teams to build their way into a winning record but I would be surprised if they all did and I’m not sure what it will take for the Bengals to win a playoff game. Maybe it really is the time for a fresh start in Cincinnati, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves as there’s plenty of football left to watch this season and a lot of it has been really good. Let’s hope we can keep this momentum.

Oh, was there Football on this week?

20 Tuesday Nov 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

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Week 11 is now in the books (I miss saying that on the Podcast!) and before it even started, people were calling it the best week of the year so far, which I must say was a little offensive to a fan of a team who were on their Bye!

On a serious note though, it was an absolute cracker, and has put the cat amongst the pigeons again when it comes to the Pick’em competition! Considering he was leading the league going into the week, a score of just 4 points for my dad means he’s dropped to second and all three of us have really closed up going into week 12. Gee’s decision to put the colours of the blog on the line was an inspired choice! I hope he’s ready for an Aqua and Orange website (Fins up!). Lets just not mention Dad’s Trivia quiz!

So, to the action on the pitch and the thing which was most incredible was the fact that 11 of the 13 games this week finished with 5 or less points separating the teams. The big game of the week was on Monday night, in the relocated Mexico game, which saw the Chiefs face the Rams, both of whom went into the week with 9-1 records. A slight amount of shine was taken off it in the move back to LA, and even more in that the Seahawks beating the Packers on Thursday meant that a Rams win wouldn’t quite make them the first team to clinch a playoff berth, but the game itself didn’t disappoint.

While in truth, the Rams spent almost the entire game in the bigger half of the scoreboard, it was still an extremely exciting contest, and a late charge from the Chiefs very nearly saw them take the win. It finished 51-54, making it the highest scoring Monday Night game in history, and if you’ve not watched it yet, I’d seriously suggest going back and checking it out, even if you can just get access to the highlights, because lets be honest, there were a lot of them!

It was especially good if you’re a fan of the passing game. The game saw just shy of 900 passing yards, with either Tyreek Hill (215 yards), Travis Kelce (127 yards) or Brandin Cooks (107 yards) on the receiving end of nearly half of them. And there were even 8 sacks to be seen for the more defensively minded of you… I’m looking at you, Gee! [How you not mention Aaron Donald? He was immense in this game – Ed.] Oh, and it’s made my bet chart look like this:

Elsewhere, the Saints continued their absolute dominance of the NFC with a thumping victory by 48 points to 7 over the defending Super Bowl champions, and the Colts (of all people!) put on a footballing masterclass in their game over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday night.

All of these close results are showing themselves in some very close divisions as we go into the final stretch too. The NFC East is often a division which runs right into the final weeks, and this year looks to be no exception with 3 wins between the whole division. It’s at this time of year where we start looking at who might find themselves continuing their season into next year, and there are 5 teams all on 5-5, making a play for the final wildcard position in the AFC. I’m pleased to say that both my Dolphins and Gee’s Bengals are two of those teams. Looking at the fixtures coming up over the next 6 weeks, I’d rather be supporting the team in Black and Orange…

Current Conference Standings, courtesy of pro-football-reference.com

We’re treated to a number of early games this week with the Thanksgiving matches taking place on Thursday, which I know Gee will be happy about as he’ll be taking his annual Thanksgiving day off work, I’ve no doubt! [Yeup, although I am starting the day at the dentist… – Ed.} And I’m so ready for a Dolphins game again… I must be a glutton for punishment, I know.

So, who do you think is going to be playing well into the new year? Anyone who hasn’t been there for a while? And at the other end, who’ll end up propping up the league? Get in touch on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time!

@TWFDan

2018 Week Eleven Picks

18 Sunday Nov 2018

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Here we are at week eleven and I have another week with only a little time so with a great Monday night game to look forward to and some truly really horrible lines it’s time to make some picks, but before facing them there’s the important matter of this week’s trivia question.

‘For week 11 I’m offering a bit of a curved ball, if that’s not too muffled a metaphor. I want to know now many of the 32 teams do NOT have a Professional Cheerleading squad.

Is it      A, 0 – 5;           B, 6 – 10;         C, 11 – 15;       or D, 16+’

Now, I’m searching my memory banks on this as I know there are a few teams that haven’t got cheerleaders. Certainly the Bears don’t have any, nor I believe do the Steelers and Browns, or the Packers for that matter and I have sneaky feeling about the Giants but is that it and have I even got those ones right? I’m going to select B and plump for six to ten as an informed guess, but I just hope my memory isn’t playing tricks on me.

‘I think it’s going to be very few, and I’m worried Dad is up to one of his tricks and trying to catch us out on wording, specifying ‘Professional’. I don’t pay all that much attention to the cheerleaders during the game (honest, your honour!) but they tend to show them coming back from at least one ad break most games, so I’m going to go very low and say A 0-5.’

Cowboys @ Falcons (-3.5)

By DVOA the Falcons are better in two phases of the game, it is just that their defence is the worst in the league whilst the Cowboys are coming off a good win in Philadelphia. They are next to each other in overall DVOA and whilst the Cowboys have been inconsistent all season, the Falcons have won three of their last four games. I really hate this line and so I’m going to grab the extra half point and hope – so much for being quick!

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Bengals @ Ravens (-3.5)

The Bengals have been bad in recent weeks, not helped by injuries across the team but the Ravens have also lost three straight and there is a possibility that Lamar Jackson will start at quarterback for the Raven. The Ravens rate as a much better team by DVOA and their losing streak can be attributed to playing the Saints, Panthers and Steelers and I have a nasty feeling about this one. Hoping to be proved wrong, I’m picking the Ravens in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Panthers @ Lions (+3.5)

The Panthers may have got thoroughly beaten by the Steelers last week on Thursday night, but they are a much better team than this iteration of the Detroit Lions and I fancy that they re-assert that this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Titans @ Colts (-2.5)

This is a cracking matchup between two teams who are fighting for relevancy in the AFC and the Titans caught many people’s eyes with a great win against the Patriots last week. However, there is just 0.3% difference in their overall DVOA and with the Colts at home I’m going to back Andrew Luck given how good he’s been and I’ve got half a point back.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Buccaneers @ Giants (-0.5)

I am really not sure what to do about this one with the Buccaneers generating five hundred yards but just three points on offence last week, and the Giants winning on Monday night football against the 49ers. However, with the Giants being 10% better in DVOA and only giving up half a point at home I’m going to back them, even though another win won’t help them in their search for a quarterback in next year’s draft.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Steelers @ Jaguars (+5.5)

The Steelers have really asserted themselves as AFC challengers after a faltering start and this week travel to a Jaguars team who are imploding after last season’s success. I’m pretty sure the Steelers will have revenge on their mind after last season’s playoff loss at the hands of the Jaguars. This is a lot of points to be giving away on the road, but frankly given the Jags haven’t won since week four this doesn’t look to be the spot for them to turn it round.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Texans @ Washington (+2.5)

This is a horribly tricky line for me as the Texans have won six straight and are coming off a bye whilst not being wholly convincing and travel to Washington to face a team winning despite a raft of injuries and a solidly average set of DVOA rankings. However, the Texans only need a field goal to cover this line and I can’t believe that Washington can keep producing wins from out of nowhere. Can they?

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Broncos @ Chargers (-7.5)

I really like this LA Chargers team and I expect them to win this game, but they don’t exactly have a great home advantage and the Broncos have kept themselves in a lot of games this season, including against the Chiefs in their last road game and divisional games can always be funny. However, the Broncos also traded away Demaryius Thomas before the trade deadline and so I’m really in two minds about this one, but in the end this line is just too big for me to lay the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Raiders @ Cardinals (-3.5)

This is an interesting line given that the Raiders are actually 0.6% better in overall DVOA ranking than the Cardinals but it is a testament to the five straight the Raiders have lost and how bad they have looked since they beat the Browns. I think it likely the Cardinals get the win but this line feels too big but I really don’t want to back the Raiders and so I’m taking the radical step of not doing so as I think the Cardinals are in a much better place right now.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Eagles @ Saints (-8.5)

The Saints have been sweeping all before them whilst the Eagles have lost their last three home games and may have won two home games sprinkled between those losses, but they were against the Giants and imploding Jaguars. This a huge line and makes nervous, but in the last three weeks the Saints put up fifty against the Bengals and beat the Vikings and Rams by ten points so I don’t see the Eagles changing things.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Vikings @ Bears (-2.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week and if you are giving me points to take the Vikings that is what I am going to do despite Chicago’s recent success. I don’t think the Bears have been fraudulent, and they could very easily win the game, but I think the smart play is to take the points until we’ve seen Trubisky really compete against a better defence than the Lions, Bills, or Jets.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chiefs @ Rams (-2.5)

This is the game of the week and one that everyone is looking forward to. It has been moved back to LA from Mexico City after complaints about the state of the pitch from both teams. The Rams have looked a little wobbly in recent weeks and have just lost Cooper Kupp for the season to an ACL tear but it is the defence that really worries me. The extra half point is really tempting for the Rams, but as good as Sean McVay is, Andy Reid is no slouch either and I just fancy that getting points the Chiefs are the side to play. Regardless of the result we should all be the winners unless there’s a bad injury so here’s hoping the game lives up to the hype and both teams get through healthy as this really could be a Super Bowl preview.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs.
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 11

15 Thursday Nov 2018

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I have managed to pull a game back on Dan’s Dad, but he is still leading the way in the picks competition. However, I might just have had an idea for a prize for the victor. The logo colours for The Wrong Football have always been based on the Bengals colours, but we could add a little spice and from next year have them in the colour of last year’s regular season picks champion’s favourite team, be they Dan or his Dad which would give us the teal and orange of the Dolphins or purple and yellow of the Vikings. Now there are some stakes for you, but for now let’s get to the matter of tonight’s game given that neither Dan or I got the trivia question right last week.

Gee:     Week 10   7-7              Overall   75-73
Dan:     Week 10   6-8              Overall   70-78

Packers @ Seahawks (-2.5)

Looking at the standing it feels like there is more at stake than just another Thursday night game as both these teams will be thinking that they could make a run at the playoffs but neither can afford to lose. The front office of the Packers seems to be looking further to the future with the moves they made at the trade deadline but Aaron Rodgers certainly won’t want to wait as he turns thirty-five next month. The Packers have not been known for the kind of run game balance they showed on offence last week, but their near two hundred yards on the ground last week was in fact bettered by the Seahawks, who ran for over two hundred and fifty in their close loss to the Rams.

These teams are within a percentage point in the overall DVOA ranking and we know that Aaron Rodgers can win anywhere but so can Russell Wilson. In fact I am finding it incredibly hard to pick between these two teams. Given the extra home advantage I believe the Seahawks should get and the fact the line is set at -2.5 I feel there is a sliver of value in picking the Seahawks at home on a Thursday night so I’m going to grab that, but honestly, this game as much as any could be a coin toss.

I just hope the football lives up to my expectations of what it could be.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Week Eleven Trivia

‘Week 10  11/11               

This week I asked about stadium altitudes and after the overtly obvious 3 feet high Saints Superdome who is 2nd and what ‘altitude’ are they? The guys have certainly had their grey cells working and I have enjoyed the logic behind their effort. Firstly, well done to both for identifying that the lowest altitude is likely to be coastal, just as the highest would normally be found in the centre of the continental land mass.

Right, to the answers, Tampa actually sits at the dizzy heights of 54m so, sorry Nul Point there Gee. Dan, however, spotted that there may be 2 at equal second place, but they weren’t West coast I’m afraid. So the 2 answers are the Giants and Jets at the Met Life in East Rutherford NJ along with the Jaguars EverBank Field each at 7 feet. Bragging rights are marginally Dan’s but neither should ever fly a plane!

Week 11

For week 11 I’m offering  a bit of a curved ball. if that’s not too muffled a metaphor. I want to know now many of the 32 teams do NOT have a Professional Cheerleading squad.

Is it      A, 0 – 5;           B, 6 – 10;         C, 11 – 15;      or D, 16+ 

Recover that Fumble   ’