Author Archives: TWF Dan

It’s good to get things off your chest sometimes…

03 Tuesday Sep 2019

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So last weekend we saw the league’s cut-down day, where all 32 teams had to cut their rosters down to 53 (from the 90 that they play around with during pre-season). I’m sure I mentioned this last year, but for the players involved, this has got to be a horrible time of year, and it means that while Week 4 of pre-season may be seen as an unnecessary game, it gives players a final chance to show their coaches what they can do in a ‘game’ situation. What it also means is that for a lot of the players playing in Week 4, it’s the end of a dream that they’ve worked for months and years to achieve.

Those of you who regularly follow Hard Knocks on NFL Gamepass or Sky will also know that the final episode, which largely covers this last game and the cutdown day, can be a difficult watch. That being said, I’ve still tried to keep as ‘spoiler free’ as I can by avoiding news of Oakland’s cuts (although a few have slipped the net, and it made it weird watching Gruden patting players on the back and strongly praising people who I now know he cut a week or so later!).

But Saturday for me also served as confirmation of what I had suspected the Dolphins were doing in the off season… Settle in, reader – I’ve got some things to get off my chest.

Basically, it became extremely clear that the Dolphins are tanking, and aiming to earn themselves the first pick in the 2020 draft. We’ve been in the process of clearing out all summer with a number of names moving on. But Saturday and Sunday saw us trade away 3 players who were arguably (not even arguably in some cases) our strongest in their respective positions. Kiko Alonso headed to the Saints on Sunday, which was preceded by Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills moving to Houston to join up with the Texans.

There had been rumours in the days before the Tunsil move that he was going to make his way to Houston in return for Jadeveon Clowney – a move which, having spoken to a number of fans on both sides of the fence, nobody was particularly keen on. During the day on Saturday (or possibly Friday night… I can’t remember) that fell through, with Clowney moving to the Seahawks. However, conversations must have been ongoing, and the Tunsil/Stills move happened late Saturday night. And I’ll be honest… I was more than slightly annoyed!

Now, true – we got a good deal out of it. 2 first round picks and a second round pick aren’t to be sniffed at. But in return, Houston have got themselves a top level tackle, and a wide receiver who still has plenty of use left in him. I was a bit confused with the Stills part of the trade – we’re weak at WR, but I can’t imagine his disagreements [I think outright criticism my be a more accurate description – Ed.] with owner Stephen Ross will have helped his cause.

The people I really feel sorry for are our QBs: Fitzpatrick and Rosen. Fitz has been named as our starting QB, but this year I think he’s going to spend more time on his arse than he is throwing the ball – the line we have in front of him is flimsy at best. If I’m in Rosen’s shoes though, I’m really questioning my situation. To me, it feels like he’s been set up to fail. Not only does he face the same problems as Fitz, but he’s got much less experience, and is starting from the bench. Fitz will only be here for a year, and it’s very well known that the ‘Fins are desperate to get their hands on Tua Tagovailoa at QB in next year’s draft, so really Rosen can’t win. Even if it doesn’t work out with Tua, we’ve got 2 first round picks in 2021, so can have another go at finding ourselves a Franchise leader!

We’ve even got rid of 14 year veteran long-snapper John Denny!

Now, I understand the need for a re-build. I know I’m moaning, but I do appreciate the usefulness of banking more picks than a Nathan Peterman game (I can’t take credit for that one – that belongs to Graham @Grummy1976 on twitter!) but what we need to remember is that they are a RISK. How many times has the ‘next big thing’ been drafted early only to struggle in the league? One of them is sitting on our bench wearing number 3 – just because you’re drafted in the first couple of picks does not mean you’re going to be an instant hit.

All this being said, my support of the Dolphins won’t waver, and I’ll still be sat in my armchair every Sunday evening cheering us on. I’ll still be getting my hopes unnecessarily high, and I’ll still be winding up fans of the people we’re playing on Twitter! After all…

Anyway, enough moaning. As I write this, we’re just 3 days away from the start of the season, and as always, I’m really REALLY excited! I’ve not got any bets on this year, so I can’t keep you posted on how that’s doing. Instead, I’ve set myself a challenge – I’m re-discovering my inner child, and I’m challenging myself to complete the Panini NFL 2019 Sticker Book by the end of the season! I’ve got a sticker album and a box of stickers on their way, so hopefully they’ll be with me before the weekend. It’s this one, if you want to collect along…

Let me know if you’re collecting too, and get your swapsies ready!

In the next day or two, I’ll be making my week one Pick’em Picks (I’m determined to turn the blog Aqua and Orange!) and my Fantasy League team, the ‘Little Lebowski Urban Achievers’ are ready to go (despite me forgetting that Zeke was holding out, and Shady McCoy being let go from the Bills at the weekend!) so there’s plenty to talk about!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

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When the Going Gets Tough…

25 Thursday Apr 2019

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I’ve been putting this off for a while now as I wanted to get my head properly around the goings on in the off-season in South Florida. It’s been a difficult off-season to swallow, if I’m honest. One of the most difficult that I can remember in my 20 years of following the ‘fins, and I have a feeling that’s only going to become a theme when the season finally rolls around in a few months time.

Where to start? Well, probably the most logical place would be at the Head Coach position, where Adam Gase was (to the surprise of nobody) relieved of his duties and replaced with former Patriots Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. This is his first head coaching position, having fulfilled various roles in New England since 2004. It would be easy to be a bit sceptical about his abilities given this fact, but personally, I quite like the sound of the noises he’s making.

B-Flo (as I will be referring to him forever more) has a hell of a job on his hands. It’s a season of change in Miami, and he’s the one who has to oversee that change. There have been a LOT of big names who have also left the franchise, some of which had been around for years. The likes of Ryan Tannehill, Cameron Wake, Danny Amendola, Frank Gore and Ja’Wuan James have all departed this year, and it’s left an extremely young, team with fairly limited experience in some areas.

Some of these names came as more of a shock than others. It’s always going to be difficult when someone who you had pegged as being your franchise quarterback departs, but I do think it was Tannehill’s time to go. It’s an interesting move for him though, going to the Titans. I can’t imagine Marcus Marriota is particularly pleased about the move, but then again, he’s hardly set the league alight in the last couple of seasons.

In his place, we’ve signed Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, Dolfans, you can be forgiven for calling him Fitztragic a few years ago when he was in the green half of New York! It’s a move which comes with a number of questions for me, not least surrounding the draft and our strategy this year. We’ve got pick number 13 this year (assuming we don’t trade between now and the draft – this writer can’t be held responsible for that!) and many fans have been expecting a QB to sit under Fitz for a year and take over the reigns next year. And I can see why that’s a popular opinion – it makes sense after all. Fitzpatrick is no spring chicken and has played for pretty much every team in the league (near enough!) so I’d expect his best days are behind him. However, for me, that’s not the pick we should make this year. I absolutely think we’ll pick up a QB in a later round (possibly the second) but for me, first round needs to focus on our pass rush positions.

The loss of Ja’Wuan James was a big one without question – our loss is the Broncos’ gain there. And while he didn’t play much last year due to injury, it would have been extremely useful to have Josh Sitton around the place, but he has decided to hang up his boots. If we don’t strengthen our offensive line, it doesn’t matter who’s throwing the ball, they’ll be spending more time on their backside than actually passing. Besides, from what I understand of the draft classes of this year and next year, the QBs are going to be much stronger next year, and given that we’re potentially in for a rough season, we should be quite high up the draft board and in a position to pick someone who can take us forward.

But lets see what happens. The Draft is always interesting and always throws up some unexpected turns somewhere so anything really can happen. You watch us go and take a Wide Receiver in round 1 now…

It’s been a while since I’ve written so I’m trying to think of what else I have to tell you… I’ll do it in pictures!

I was clearing out my spare room over Easter weekend and this little beauty turned up – this was my playing jersey when I played at Uni. I’d imagine there are kids all over the place now wearing 31 in my honour…

I’ve also got to pick my Super Bowl winners bet – I’d like to do it in the next few days as I’m already a lot later than I was in last years’ losing effort in picking the Rams. Any ideas would be much appreciated, but this is how the top few odds are looking as of today (24th April) – the Dolphins are at 125/1 and Bengals at 80/1, out of interest…

And with all of that said, I’m off to watch this! [Not exactly a realistic negotiation stratergy – Ed.]

Until next time…

@TWFDan

Th…Th…That’s All Folks!

05 Tuesday Feb 2019

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Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last couple of weeks, you’ll have seen that Sunday brought the 2018 NFL Season to a close with the Superbowl, which saw the New England Patriots emerge victorious over the LA Rams in what turned out to be one of the lowest scoring and most Defensive ‘bowls in recent memory.

Personally, I didn’t think the game was a classic (Sorry Gee!). You may be aware that I’m more of an offensive man than a defensive one, so the fact that the score was just 3-0 at half time meant that we were in severe need of something worth staying-up for… unfortunately, that meant Maroon 5, who produced one of the worst Superbowl half time shows I think I’ve ever seen!

The half time show feels like it’s lost some of it’s magic. It’s a good few years since we’ve had a show which I’ve genuinely looked forward to… It’s not that long since we had a run of shows which included Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers, The Who, The Boss, The Rolling Stones and Prince, so the latest crop really have struggled to offer up anything worth sticking around at half time for. At least it gave me time to go and make some pop-tarts and a hot chocolate… A stark reminder that I’m getting old!

Back to the game though, and one thing which surprised me was the performance of Jarred Goff. He’s looked good all season and has been a real shining star of Sean McVay’s time with the Rams. He looked very shaky all game, and found himself making poorly judged throws, being rushed often, and got sacked 4 times. On the other hand, Tom Brady (the supposed ‘GOAT’) didn’t do much better – he only made 30ish more yards, and his completion percentage wasn’t a huge amount better than Goff’s, but what he did have was Julian Edelman, the eventual game’s MVP, who did a fantastic job at making extra yards after the catch and generally causing the Rams Defence all sorts of problems.

None of my bets came off either… I stood to win £85 had the Rams won the game! On the plus side, the defensiveness of the game gave us a good look at what Brian Flores, Miami’s newly anointed Head Coach, was capable of. If Sunday was a job interview, I’d say he well and truly passed with flying colours, even if he did have the might of Brucey B behind him.

But I think the main thing which came out of the game, and actually probably of the season as a whole is what a brilliant job the NFL (along with Sky and the BBC) are doing at raising the awareness of the game over on this side of the pond. I lost count of the number of people who spoke to me about it over the weekend, and have spoken to me about how they caught some of the game since, and while neither the game or the halftime show were classics, there’s definitely something to be said about the prospects for the league going forward.

This became even more clear to me on Sunday afternoon when I was walking home from the King Power stadium. 2 young lads were behind me who couldn’t have been more than about 11 or 12 years old. They’d just left a football (soccer) game where they’d seen their team unlucky not to get something of a result, and they were talking about how much they were looking forward to the Super Bowl! One was talking about how Tom Brady was going to have a huge game and throw for “like… 500 yards!” And the other was more concerned about how Todd Gurley was going to get “at least 4 touchdowns!”. While neither of them were correct (it would have made for a much better game, I think we can all agree… well, maybe not ‘all’) I was seriously impressed that 2 lads of their age were talking about The Wrong Football the same as you would expect them to be discussing the ‘other’ football!

We’re winning… keep spreading the news, and I’ll speak to you all in a few months!

@TWFDan

Anyone got any plans for the weekend?

30 Wednesday Jan 2019

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So, here we are! It’s that time of year again where all of your mates, even the ones who don’t watch any other games all season, become big NFL fans! We’re down to the final two, with the best of the AFC, namely the New England Patriots, facing off against the NFC’s LA Rams.

It’s an exciting one this year. I genuinely believe that either team could be leaving Atlanta with the Vince Lombardi trophy, and I can’t wait to see how the game goes. Lets take a look at the two teams involved.

A handy guide for Sunday night…

AFC: New England Patriots – 11-5

What can I say about the Patriots that hasn’t already been said? The combination of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick is one of the most successful partnerships in NFL history, having lead their Patriots to 5 Super Bowl championships; 4 of them with Mr Brady winning the Super Bowl MVP! This is the Patriots third representation of the AFC in the big one in row with them beating Falcons and losing to the Eagles in the last 2.

But this year, I believe that they’re a little more beatable than they have in the run up to the last couple of outings. This year, they’ve dropped games against the Jaguars (Week 2), Lions (Week 3), Titans (Week 10), Dolphins (Week 14) and Steelers (Week 15), none of whom made it to the post-season. On top of that, you can’t argue that Tom Brady is getting on a bit. It’s been interesting this week to hear him say that he ‘doesn’t know’ if Sunday’s game will be his last [He did say he had zero intention to retire -Ed.]. Personally, I can’t see it, but at the same time, if he does play again next year, I can’t see him being able to keep up the standard that everyone is used to seeing from him.

His target men have been a little bit unexpected this year. James White (a Running Back) has been targeted the most, and made the most catches this year, and losing someone like Josh Gordon towards the end of the season to suspension won’t have helped. On top of that, if you exclude the 2016 season when he was injured for half of the year, this has been statistically his worst year since 2013 – something which hasn’t helped to silence the noise about him potentially retiring too.

If things don’t go their way on Sunday, we really could be watching the end of their franchise dominance… (much to the delight of the rest of the AFC East!).

NFC: Los Angeles Rams – 13-3

It seems a long time since the Rams entered LA in 2016 with a 4-12 record. Since then, certainly in the last couple of seasons, they’ve been one of the most exciting franchises to watch in the league. This will have been in no small part down to the introduction of current Head Coach Sean McVay, who has breathed new life into the team.

Their route to the Super Bowl, via an overtime victory over the New Orleans Saints, was marred with more than a little controversy – with a missed interference call on a play that also had a helmet to helmet hit at the end of the fourth quarter which may well have lead to a different end result – but for me, you win some and you lose some throughout the year, it just happens to have come at the perfect time for them!

What has surprised me a little is that the Rams frankly loaded defence ranks 19th in the league this year. When you think that their line is stacked with the likes of Aaron Donald (who I think I’m developing a Gee/JJ Watt style man-crush on! [No fair, you are an offence man and I have an ethical polly approach to my love of destuctive interior defensive linemen – Ed.]) and Ndamukong Suh, I really would expect them to be much higher up the list.

On the other side of the ball, Jarred Goff has had a great season in his second year as starting QB. He’s been helped out by Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods who have done well, and you can’t talk about the Rams offence without taking a look at Todd Gurley. He was just slightly under his rushing yard total from last season, but has been extremely important for the team, running in 17 TDs throughout the year.

And their other benefit is their kicking game – as a team, you’ve got to go a long way to find a better pairing than Johnny Hekker and Greg Zuerlein, who have made some monster kicks and punts this year.

My Verdict

This is the most difficult Super Bowl to pick for a good few years. I had a hunch about the Rams back in March, and on balance, I think I’m going to stick with them for the win in the early hours of Monday morning. That being said, if you saw how my picks went this year, they may not be thanking me for that…

One final update on the bet before I sign off – as you’d expect, the cash out value has fluctuated a bit throughout the week and a half since they made it through, but it’s now at its most tempting!

And that’ll be it from me for now. One more post next week, and I’ll be taking a well earned break. As always, I’ve got Monday off work, so Sunday will be America day in our house, where I drink American lager, eat Corn Dogs, and watch the big game… and I can’t wait!

I’ll be tweeting throughout the game, so can’t wait to hear how you’re celebrating the occasion, and what your plans are for Sunday night – tweet me and let me know!

Oh, and if you know where I can get hold of some Corn Dogs in the UK, I’m reaching Def-Con-One here!

@TWFDan

4 Teams, 3 Games, 2 Weekends and a Super Bowl!

16 Wednesday Jan 2019

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It’s really hard to believe that there’s only just over 2 weeks left before ‘America Day’ descends upon the TWFDan Household and we gear up for the Super Bowl. It doesn’t seem like more than a month or two since the season began – I vividly remember feeling like a kid on Christmas Eve back on the evening of the 8th September as I waited for the Dolphins to kick off their season (little did I know that game would take over 7 hours to complete due to various weather delays!!).

But we’re down to the Elite Four now, with the Rams and Saints representing the NFC, and the Patriots and Chiefs waving the Red flag for the AFC, and once again it’s both conference’s first and second seeds who meet for a place in the Super Bowl.

Before we look at those games though, I want to quickly mention the Head Coaching situation in Miami, following Adam Gase being relieved of his duties a couple of weeks ago. It’s looking pretty nailed on that the Dolphins will be recruiting current New England Patriots Defensive Coordinator and Linebackers Coach Brian Flores as their new main man. It’s looked that way for a while, and if you follow the Miami Dolphins on Twitter, you’ll know that they made it very clear very early that he was their favoured candidate. I don’t know a huge amount about him but he’s growing on me from what I’m hearing. He’s very much invested in the ‘winning way of life’ at New England, having been with the team since 2004, and I think that’s something that Stephen Ross and GM Chris Grier will be keen for him to bring over to Miami. One thing that makes me a little wary is that he was the guy responsible for putting Gronk in the Safety position for the Miami Miracle play a few weeks back, but I suppose I could see what he was doing in covering the Hail Mary, so I’ll let him off.

Adam Gase, by the way, wasted no time in finding himself a new job… and some controversy the process. He’s landed the Head Coaching role in the green half of New York, and to say he’s been an unpopular choice is a bit of an understatement. The New York Post’s back page headline of “Jets choose Fish failure Gase to be head coach” the day after his announcement tells you a lot of what you need to know about that appointment…

Onto this weeks games, and lets start in the NFC.

LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints

The first game sees a meeting of 2 teams who both finished 13-3 and more than deserve their place in this one. Last week saw the Rams survive a bit of a late charge from the Cowboys to make it here in a game in which their rushing game absolutely dominated, with CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley both having over 100 yard games, and sharing nearly 40 carries. The Saints on the other hand started very slowly on Sunday night against the Eagles, going 14-0 down after less than 10 minutes of play, but 20 unanswered points in the remaining quarters saw them see off the defending champions. That one could have finished very differently though, with Philly getting to within 27 yards of a potential winning touchdown before an interception intended for Alshon Jefferey was picked off – an unfortunate way for Nick Foles career with the Eagles to come to an end.

This weekend though is a tough one. I really want the Rams to win this – I’d like nothing more for my bet to still be alive going into the big game as it’ll make things even more interesting for me, but I’m struggling to see it going that way. I think it’ll be close, but I’m going for the Saints to take the game. Onto the AFC…

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs

Man, I’m bored of New England. I mean, I’m really REALLY bored of the Patriots making it to the Super Bowl. And that’s not just sour grapes as a Dolphins fan, but it really is about time someone else got to represent the red brand. They have done well to get here though after a slightly shaky start to the season. Last weekend, they were pretty dominant over the LA Chargers, going 38-7 up at one point towards the end of the Third quarter. Sony Michel made his sixth 100+ rushing yard game of his rookie season and is starting to look like he was a pretty handy draft.

The Chiefs were also pretty dominant beating the Colts by 31 points to 13. I didn’t manage to catch much of that game unfortunately, but from what I hear, they fully deserved their win.

But who’s going to make it to the Super Bowl? I really want to say Kansas, but as much as people talk down the Patriots (there was even someone on the NFL Network this weekend suggesting that they would lose to the Chargers and this would be the ‘end of the dynasty’), I still think they’ve got another super bowl in them unfortunately, so I’m going to pick the Patriots.

And that’s definitely not because my picks for the playoffs have been rubbish and I just want to jinx them… or is it!

Before I sign off, for the penultimate time (assuming they win!) here’s a look at how my bet is looking:

Interestingly, the Rams are now joint 3rd Favourites (with the Patriots, both on 4.5), with the Saints current favourites (2.8) and Chiefs in between on 3.6.

So who do you think will make it to the Super Bowl? And what are your thoughts on the coaching moves we’ve seen so far? Drop me a line on Twitter and lets have a chat.

Until next time…

@TWFDan

Divisional Picks & Wildcard Wrap-up!

09 Wednesday Jan 2019

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We head to the Divisional games this week which is always an exciting time as those with Wildcard byes get back into the mix. Quicker roundup from me this week, as I’m a) late, and b) short on time!

So picks-wise, I was 1-3, which I’m not happy with, although the one I did get was pretty convincing (despite a late charge from the Ravens!). That being said, there were a couple of pretty close ones. The Bears will feel really disappointed about the end of their game, and subsequently their season, which finished with a kick that rebounded off not just one, but two posts – a kick which would have seen them go on to face the Rams this weekend.

Go back and have a look at the Bears mascot’s reaction to the missed kick if you haven’t already!

I heard an interesting fact over the weekend: Since 2013, no team who has played in Wildcard week has made it to the Super Bowl. Especially interesting as between 2002 and 2012, there were 9 wildcard week teams who made it to the big game.

And so with that, it’s onto my divisional picks, and we’ll start with Saturday evening’s AFC clash between the Colts (6) and Chiefs (1). Indianapolis are looking good and were absolutely dominant against the Texans last weekend. That being said, the Chiefs are 1st seed for a reason and they’ve been equally impressive. Believe it or not though, as good as the Kansas Offence has been this year (ranked 1st in the league), their defence ranks at 31st! I think they’re going to struggle this year, and I’m going to make a big call for the Indianapolis Colts to take this week’s game and head to the Conference championships.

Early Sunday morning will see the Rams (2) back in action as they host the Cowboys (4) in what I think will be the game of the weekend, and one I might even try to stay up and watch live. This genuinely could go either way, for me. Form means a lot when it comes to this stage of the year, and while the Cowboys are definitely the form team of the tie, the Rams were patchy towards the back end of the year after a fantastic start. As much as it pains me to say it (see my bet update below!!) but I think the Dallas Cowboys will be moving on.

Onto Sunday evening, and we’ve got the Chargers (5) travelling to Foxborough to face the Patriots (2). I like the Chargers a lot, and I think they definitely could have what it takes to take the game. I’m hesitant to do this as I feel I’m doing the typical ‘English’ thing and backing the underdogs in every game so far, but I am going to go with the LA Chargers for the win.

That stops here though I’m afraid. The Saints (1) face the Eagles (6) in the final game of the weekend, which I think is going to be the end of Nick Foles’ playoff run. The Saints have looked great all year, and I think they’re pretty much a shoe in here to get into the Conference game, so I’m picking the New Orleans Saints.

If my picks are all correct (and lets be honest, they won’t be!), that’ll give us Colts/Chargers and Cowboys/Saints Conference games, which would be pretty good… although at this stage, there’s no bad sounding games.

Finally, it’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for – my bet update:

I should really be cashing out as I don’t think they’re going to win this weekend, but for your entertainment, dear reader, I’ll keep it there. By the way, you owe me a fiver.

Who are your picks this week? Do you think I’m wrong in picking the lower ranked team in 3 of the 4 games this weekend? Drop me a line on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

20 down, 12 to go!

01 Tuesday Jan 2019

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This is my first blog post since Christmas, and my first of 2019, so I hope you had a great festive period. It’s back to reality now though, and the work really begins for the 8 teams left in the running for the Vince Lombardi trophy.

I don’t want to dwell on it too much as I want to spend the majority of this post looking at the ‘Wildcard 8′ but I feel I must mention – the Dolphins were woeful in the last 2 games of the season, and it’s ended up costing Adam Gase his job. To me, it’s not really a surprise if I’m being perfectly honest. He was even more Average than Average Andy in Cincinnati – going into Week 16, his record was 23-23 as Dolphins head coach, and with owner Stephen Ross’ ambitious expectations for his team, that doesn’t really cut it unfortunately. That being said, I can’t see him being out of a job for long as he’s known as being fairly highly regarded amongst a number of teams, especially the Browns, who are also on the look out for a new coach. I wonder how popular that would be with Jarvis Landry…?! The problem the Dolphins have now is who might come in to replace him – news I’ve heard has Rex Ryan going around telling everyone who will listen that he’s getting the job, which is a bit worrying to me (although I’m not 100% sure how reliable the source of the story was!).

Another final point of note on the ‘Fins before I move on is the annual ‘End of Year Ejections’ from this weeks game. This year, it was Kiko Alonso and Robert Quinn who were ejected in the third quarter for Unsportsmanlike Conduct and Unnecessary Roughness. It’s difficult to defend Kiko on this one; it’s not the first hit like this that he’s made this year, and he’s started to get comparisons to Vontaze Burfict for similar hits. It decimated our defence for the game, but even before that point, we’d established a terrible stat of the most yards allowed in a season in franchise history… not a great record to be breaking.

So, on to the Wildcard 8! There’s four games this weekend for the right to go onto play the Chiefs, Patriots, Rams and Saints in the Divisional round. I’ll go through each of the games and make my predictions…

Saturday kicks off with the Colts visiting the Texans. The Colts snuck through on Sunday night and I’m looking forward to seeing how the Houston rushing game develops. This year, the Colts haven’t allowed a single rusher a 100 yard game – especially impressive considering they’ve faced the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry (twice!). As divisional rivals, they’ve met twice already this year, sharing wins. My pick for this one is the Houston Texans.

Next, we have the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Seattle Seahawks. For me, this is going to be the game of the weekend, and is definitely one I’m looking forward to catching. Both teams finished 10-6, and both are largely here due to a really strong finish, with Dallas winning 7 of their last 8 games, and Seattle winning 6 of their last 7. Dallas are a good team but I just think this might be the end of their road, so I’m picking the Seattle Seahawks.

Moving on to Sunday, the early game is back to the AFC, where the Chargers and Ravens meet. This one’s quite straightforward to me having watched quite a few Chargers games this season and being really impressed – I genuinely think that Philip Rivers is finally going to get another Postseason run, so I’m going to go with the LA Chargers. That being said, I strongly suggest you go back and check out the Ravens/Browns game from Week 17, where the Ravens clinched their post-season visit – really good game with an exciting ending.

Finally we have the Eagles and the Bears who meet late on Sunday. These two teams are, in their own ways, a bit of a surprise. Not many people would have picked the Bears to win the NFC North, especially so convincingly. They’ve done incredibly well this year though, and have gelled brilliantly as a team. On the other hand, while it shouldn’t be surprising that the Eagles are there (given that they’re the defending champions), they really struggled with consistency this year, and if it wasn’t for a strong end to the season, they might have missed out. A lot of this is going to depend on how Nick Foles recovers this week – he’s got sore Ribs following Sunday’s game with the Redskins. With Carson Wentz out, they may struggle if he isn’t at his best. This is the most difficult to call of the weekend I think, but I’ll go for the Chicago Bears.

Only one final thing remains before I wrap up for the week – a quick look at how my bet is looking for the Rams:

And that’ll be that. This time next week, we’ll be down to just 8 teams, and there’ll be only 7 games (plus a pro-bowl, which listeners of the pod will know we don’t count!) left this season. Buckle up – there’s still a lot of football to be played!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

The Dolphins were terrible, but my picks weren’t!

18 Tuesday Dec 2018

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Well, that was a bump back down to earth!

After last week’s miracle in Miami, I suppose it was only right that normal service would resume and we’d struggle, especially away from home where we’ve struggled all year. It was more than a little embarrassing though – long time readers will know that my dad is a Minnesota Vikings fan, so I can only thank my lucky stars that he picked this week to fly 7 hours away so I don’t have to put up with quite as much gloating as I could have expected any other week!

Much like an Alan Partridge talkshow, the Dolphins started poorly and went downhill from there. With the game only 13 minutes old, we’d already gone down by 21 points and lost Frank Gore, who it now turns out is going to be out for the remainder of the season, thanks to a sprained ankle [Actually sprained foot, which somehow sounds words – Ed.]. But the most telling thing in terms of how things went for the Dolphins can be deduced from the following 3 stats:

Total Passing Yards: 108
Tannehill Sacked: 9 times for 71 yards.
Net passing yards: 37

There’s got to be a share of the blame here. Tannehill did go down a couple of times for making poor decisions in holding onto the ball when he could have thrown, but he was not helped in the slightest by his Offensive Line. And I’m getting a bit sick of repeating myself about how beaten up we are, but it’s taking its toll now, and we just looked embarrassing on Sunday night. I can’t imagine all of those hits helped number 17’s injured Shoulder… or his injured Knee… or his injured Ankle!

The Vikings on the other hand looked very good. Their offence had taken a lot of flack in recent weeks, and they even parted company with their OC John DeFilippo last week, but the team’s response was nothing short of impressive. They looked clinical in their approach, with Dalvin Cook (who rushed for 136 yards) Stefon Diggs and Tyler Conklin seeming to find it all too easy to find holes in Miami’s Defence.

The only positive for the Dolphins was a bit of an emergence of Kalen Ballage, who had 12 Rushing attempts for a total of 123 yards, 75 of which were in one play at the beginning of the second half. We seem to be doing pretty well in recent seasons in bringing through young RBs, so hopefully Ballage could be the latest in that list.

Anyway, the game finished 41-17, I ended up with the hump, and the Dolphins are back to 7-7.

Even the Rams lost, giving me more cause for concern with my bet after such a good start to the season! That’s made the chart look like this…

Outside of those games, there were a couple of goose eggs this week, as the Titans and the Colts shut out the Giants and the Cowboys respectively. And my favourite moment of the week came in the form of a Patriots punt cover which saw some an incredible mid air stop and the ball being grounded at the 1 yard line. It wasn’t all good for New England though as a poor throw midway through the fourth quarter pretty much handed their game to the Pittsburgh in what could quite easily cost New England their home advantage in the playoffs.

Is it a Bird? Is it a Plane? No! It’s Jonathan Jones!

Picks-wise, I’m catching up! Once again I went against instinct, and once again, I got a double-digit score… if that’s what it’s going to take to turn this very blog Aqua and Orange, then so be it! Just 2 weeks left, and this is getting close!

This will more than likely be the last time I get chance to blog before Christmas Day. Like many people this time of year, I’ll be busy visiting family and friends, and eating more than can ever be seen as healthy, but I very quickly want to ask you to take a moment to think about those who aren’t as lucky. Many will spend the cold Christmas period alone and on the streets, but you can help to make things a little better. On Christmas Day, I’ll be making my annual Christmas donation to Crisis, a charity who not only provide a hot meal and a bed for the night for those less fortunate over the festive period, but also provide health checkups, hot showers, and support to help people to turn their lives around, and hopefully not face the same predicament again next Christmas. If you’ve enjoyed what I’ve written this year, please consider making a donation to Crisis using this link: www.crisis.org.uk/ (this year, the suggested donation is £28.18, but anything you can give will help!).

Have a safe and happy Christmas, and make sure you enjoy A LOT of football!!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

I Have Witnessed a Miracle… in Miami!

10 Monday Dec 2018

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Ladies and Gentlemen, I have seen the light! On Sunday evening, I witnessed nothing short of a miracle at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami… but I’ll go into a bit more on that in a minute.

It’s nearly Christmas, and at this point of the season I should really be thinking about editing Gee’s sleigh-bells into the podcast, but as it goes this year, we’ve got none of that. Instead, we’ve got some really interesting football goings-on, which if you think about it is even more exciting (although I understand that’s difficult to believe!). One surprise for me was how close the Bengals managed to keep their game on Sunday night with the Chargers, and I promise you I mean that kindly. I know how much Gee was dreading the game (because, well… he told me he was) but actually they kept the game really close. It’s not easy to keep up with the Chargers at all this season, especially when you’re without your starting QB and star receiver, so to keep the game within just 5 points was actually quite impressive.

Once again though, the Dolphins are absolutely adamant that they’re going to finish me off before the end of the season, and in the very final play of the game, an awesome lateral play (Tannehill to Stills, to Parker, to Drake) saw the ‘Fins beat the Patriots by 34 points to 33.

It was a fantastic game for the neutral with 9 changes in the lead throughout the game, which I believe to be a season record, and one more change than seen in the Bucs/Saints game earlier in the year. It really was a case of ‘anything you can do, we can do better’… except for Kicking. Stephen Gostkowski uncharacteristically missed his first Extra Point of the year, along with a failed FG try, and Dolphins punter Matt Haack had a few punts blocked, giving the Pats some good field starting positions throughout the game.

The end of the first half was a bit of a scary time for the Dolphins too. Ryan Tannehill, who is only a couple of weeks removed from a Shoulder injury, took a nasty knock to his right ankle from a member of his own line, leading to some time on the sidelines, a return with some very heavy strapping, and a heck of a lot of hobbling in the second half! He took a lot of hits, especially in the first two quarters, but still managed a 155.2 passer rating, despite 4 sacks.

Another player who had a hell of a day for the Dolphins was Branden Bolden. The former Patriot clearly had a chip on his shoulder going into this game, and a wish to show his former employers what they’re missing, and despite going into the game with just 1 carry, he ran twice on Sunday, scoring TDs on both occasions!

But the real beauty of the game came in the final minute. Let me set the scene: New England had just charged up the field (with the help of a pass interference call) and despite our best efforts, the Dolphins couldn’t stop them from kicking 3 points, putting the Pats 5 points ahead with just under 20 seconds to go. After a short kick return, Miami had just 7 seconds remaining, with no Timeouts, backed up on their own 31. It’s game over, right?

Well… not exactly. Tannehill took a quick step back, throwing to Kenny Stills for about 15 yards. He spun around, throwing the ball back to De’vante Parker, who overlapped his run and in turn threw it back to Kenyan Drake. Drake cut in from the touch line and perfectly judged the angle of his run. With the help of a couple of lovely blocks, he headed towards the goal line, causing Gronkowski (who had been put into the play in anticipation of a Hail Mary) to slip, allowing Drake to head into the end-zone with no time remaining, giving the Dolphins the win by just 1 point! It was nothing short of an incredible finish to an exciting game, and once again for the 5th time in his last 6 attempts, Tom Brady came away from Miami with a loss. And it all means that the Dolphins are still in with a shout of some January football, although there are now 4 teams on 7-6 vying for that last AFC Wildcard spot.

Elsewhere, there’s been another firing this week – this time it’s Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie who has faced the music. The Raiders have been poor this season, but timing of this one is a little curious given that they picked up their third win of the season on Sunday over the Steelers, who currently sit atop the AFC North. I’m not sure what they’re hoping to get from that firing. I can only think that there was a little more to it than meets the eye.

You’ll remember that the Packers got rid of their Head Coach last week and had former ‘fin Joe Philbin calling the shots this week in the Interim position. As is often the case, the team had a ‘bounce’ this week, beating the Falcons convincingly.

I took a new tactic this week for my picks. As I’ve been terrible all season, I decided that I would go completely against my instincts. I’m not sure if I should be pleased or depressed about it, but that saw me hit my first double-digit week of the season, and believe it or not, it almost puts me back into contention (albeit with an extremely slim chance). I’m torn as to what tactic I’m going to go with for the rest of the season now given the success of last week…!

Rams watch: Second loss of the year this week, so here’s what the bet is looking like…

When I next write, there’ll be just a week left until Christmas. What do you want from your team over the festive period? And are you expecting any merch from your favourite team? Get in touch on Twitter – I’d love to hear about it!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

The Good, The Bad and the Downright Ugly!

05 Wednesday Dec 2018

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It’s been an eventful week this week in the NFL. We’ve seen firings, injuries, releases and believe it or not, even some games! So, where do I start…

As per usual, I’ll start with the games – most specifically, the Dolphins game. I’ve decided that I’m not going to tell my doctor that I support Miami. As a man with high blood pressure, I think it would be seriously frowned upon, especially given the way our last few games have finished. That being said, we picked up a win this week, which takes us back to a .500 record at 6-6, but as I mentioned to Gee (while trying to somehow empathise with him in his pit of Black and Orange misery), we really made it difficult for ourselves, especially towards the end.

We started well, getting a first drive touchdown for the second week in a row, which is amazing given that we got none in the previous 20 games! De’vante Parker made an 18 yard grab, which was our longest for the game, and the defence did a really good job of keeping the Bills at bay, especially Shady McCoy, who usually causes Miami all sorts of problems, but was held to just 52 yards on Sunday. This was the first time I’d seen the Bills this year (I hate getting this far into the season without having seen teams, but time hasn’t been as kind as it usually is this year), and I was hugely impressed with Josh Allen at Quarterback. I know he started the season poorly, but he offers something I LOVE in a QB: a rushing option. And boy did they make the most of that! He bagged himself 135 yards on the ground, which was more than double what the whole of the rest of the Dolphins managed.

The Bills will be really kicking themselves. They lost the game by just 4 points, and having missed a PAT kick and a Field Goal try, you’ve got to think that kicker Steven Hauschka can’t be the most popular guy in the locker room this week.

Before I move on to talk about the rest of the week’s events as I saw them, I’ve got to call out Xavien Howard who once again intercepted 2 balls (taking his total for the season up to 7), and defended 17 throws! He’s having a real standout season so far and along with Kiko Alonso and even Minkah Fitzpatrick to a certain extent, they’re doing a good job of keeping games close for a team who aren’t exactly free-scoring. And all of a sudden, people are mentioning us with in the conversation about Wildcards again. With trips to Minnesota and Buffalo sandwiched by the visit of New England (who historically we do well against at home) and Jacksonville in our last 4 games, I think we might actually have a fairly decent chance… with a bit of luck and a prevailing wind.

Injury-wise, I found myself in deep sympathy for Gee this week who I think has well and truly written of the Bengals season after Sunday’s game, which saw AJ Green hit the Injured Reserve list, meaning his season is over. The positive is that he’ll be back next year, but between him and Average Andy (I said I feel sympathy for Gee, but not enough to let a poke like that pass me by!), I think there’ll be a lot of face-saving going on for the Bengals in the remaining 4 games.

The Packers struggled this week, losing a close one to the now 3-9 Arizona Cardinals, and as a result, Mike McCarthy was relieved of his Head Coaching duties, having arrived in Green Bay back in 2006. He’s pretty much the only head coach who Aaron Rogers has played under as a pro, and I think it’ll be interesting to see what they manage for the remainder of the season.

The Rams made it to be the first team to officially qualify for the post-season, with their win on Sunday night over the Lions, which as you’ll imagine, I was delighted about! That’s made my chart look like this:

Picks and Trivia-wise, it was a poor week for me. I committed the cardinal sin of changing one of my picks after I’d submitted them (in changing from the Giants to the Bears) which predictably lost me a point. And then having REALLY wanted to change again on Monday night, I decided not to tempt fate again, and as such, lost another point, so all in all, pretty bad! I think I’m too far behind to come out on top now – I’m thinking of going completely against my instinct this week to see if that gets me more points.

And I don’t think I can really finish this week without talking about the league’s biggest problem by far in SOME of it’s players attitudes towards women. I won’t go too far into it as I have a feeling that Gee will cover this in detail, but we’ve seen Kareem Hunt fired by the Chiefs this week having been caught on camera ‘shoving’ a woman. There’s far too much of this kind of thing going on, what with Ezekiel Elliot last year and a whole string of others who have been punished for this kind of behaviour. It’s worrying, and it’s about time the league and the teams involved stepped up and educated their players against this kind of behaviour. I’m sure every sport has it’s share of this kind of thing, but the NFL seems to be especially affected.

On the positive side, it’s Christmas just around the corner, and we’ll soon be seeing the other side of the league’s players who will no doubt once again be busy delivering food and toys to those less well off – it’s one of the things I’m most proud about when I see that being reported around the festive period.

So with just a few weeks left to go, who do you think will be making the playoffs? Can you seen any surprises sneaking in there? Say hello on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan