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The Playoff Fallen

20 Saturday Jan 2018

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So I need to catch up with the teams who have departed the playoffs so having started this post last week, here’s my now finished run through the playoff fallen starting with the losing wild card teams.

The first team to fall were the Kansas City Chiefs who managed to lose a game to the Tennessee Titans that they were leading 21-3 at half time. The Chiefs have been up and down this season with a significant mid-season lull that gave way to a four game win streak coming into their playoff game against the Titans. However, a number of factors combined for the Chiefs to lose this Wildcard game and demonstrated one of the warts that has affected them all year. The defence of the Chiefs has had problems ever since safety Eric Berry ruptured his Achilies, but their overall ranking of thirtieth by DVOA and dead last against the run showed up in this game when the Chiefs failed to stop the Titans’ second half come back and Derrick Henry finishing the game with one hundred and fifty-six rushing yards. The Chief offence also came to a sputtering stop once Travis Kelce left the game with a concussion meaning the Titans could focus on stopping the speedy Chiefs receivers with two deep safeties. The Chiefs further played into this by only giving Kareem Hunt elven carries in the entire game and running Alex Smith at inopportune moments. The Cheifs’ recent playoff record is also clearly on their usually very loud crowd’s mind as it got quieter the better the Titans did, although I defy any fan to be confident when the opposing quarterback throws a touchdown pass to himself.

This could well be Alex Smith’s final game for the Chiefs given his 1-4 playoff record in the five season that he and head coach Andy Reid have been with the franchise and with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings. I don’t believe this loss can really be blamed on Smith and they could stick with him as they develop a still raw Mahomes but patience does seem to be wearing thin for a section of their fans and the narrative seems to be that Smith will leave in the offseason. Their current offensive co-ordinator Matt Nagy has already left to be the new head coach of the Chicago Bears and with Smith’s current playoff record perhaps it is time to change with a new coordinator coming in. The defence will also need an overhaul given the age of a number of players and their reliance on a twenty-nine year old safety who will be recovering from an Achilles injury next season. In recent years the Chiefs have been competitive but their approach last offseason seemed to be split between short term and long term agendas and I am curious to see how they approach this one.

The second team to lose on wild car weekend were the LA Rams whose remarkable turnaround season couldn’t overcome the playoff experience of the Atlanta Falcons whose defence was able to stifle the Rams offence. This was mainly due to excellent tackling against the short routes so although Todd Gurley did get over one hundred yards on the ground, he was not able to dominated in the way he has for much of the season. As frustrating as this loss was, part of the problem were repeated special teams miscues by Pharoh Cooper early in the game, which was not a reflection of his Pro Bowl special teams play through the year. Still, this was a season of marked improvement for the Rams with plenty of young players to grow with their coach and you would expect them to be competitive next season but it has to be hard for Andrew Whitworth to lose another wild card playoff game.

The Buffalo Bills scraped into the playoffs on the back of a final drive fourth down touchdown pass from the Bengals’ Andy Dalton but they couldn’t overcome the Jaguars in their first playoff game in eighteen years. The Bills defence managed to contain the Jaguars offence by committing to stopping the run and daring Blake Bortles to beat them in his first playoff game. This plan could have worked if Tyrod Taylor didn’t have nearly as bad a game as Bortles and LeSean McCoy was fully healthy, but the offence couldn’t do enough and the game was lost 10-3. This was still a turnaround for the Bills and first year head coach Sean McDermott has things to work on but offensive co-ordinator Rick Dennison paid the price and the Bills will be one of several teams looking for a quarterback this offseason. The Bills could continue their improvement, but they will be limited until they get a quarterback and offence in place that everyone in the franchise believes in.

The final wild card game saw the Carolina Panthers lose to the New Orleans Saints for the third time this year. The Panthers have been very solid on defence all year, but their offence has been very up and down. A slow start was not that surprising given that Cam Newton was coming off shoulder surgery in the offseason and the Panthers were trying a new approach, but this never really took and the offence didn’t really start to work until Newton began to run more. This made the play of Newton very important for how the offence went, which is not that unusual for a quarterback but Newton’s size ability to run, whilst being a dangerous weapon, has to make up for his volatility in the passing game. When Newton is on he is as dangerous a quarterback as there is in the league, but with injuries at receiver (the Panthers also traded away Kelvin Benjamin during the season) and Newton’s favourite target tight end Greg Olsen battling with a foot injury that was clearly still affecting him, he was not able to beat the Saints despite playing well. Going into the offseason the Panthers have replaced offensive co-ordinator Mike Shula with Norv Turner so a new offence will be installed in the summer and it will be fascinating to see how these changes work and how Newton takes to although at least he will be able to practise this offseason.

Moving on to last week’s games and the first team to fall were the Atlanta Falcons who couldn’t match their performance against the Rams when they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in a tight competitive game. The Falcons were only able to score ten points on the league’s fifth ranked defence by DVOA but whilst the offensive rankings of the Falcons don’t look bad (tenth in passing and sixteenth rushing by DVOA) it does feel like this unit underachieved given the calibre of players available. Yes some regression from last year’s stellar performance was to be expected but it has been a difficult year for Steve Sarkisian in taking over from Kyle Shanahan and whilst he is coming back next season, there will be pressure to improve or the discontent could cause real problems. This could be true for the whole staff given the painful playoff exit and the Super Bowl last year given that both games were winnable. Still, if the offence can be brought round and the defence continues its rise the Falcons could be very formidable next season.

The Tennessee Titans had done well to win their first game against the Chiefs, but there are limits and it was always going to be a tough job to go into Gillette stadium and beat the New England Patriots. To their credit, the Titans kept it competitive for a quarter and took a 7-0 lead before the Patriots shook off the rust from their bye week and ran out easy 35-14 winners. The Titans were pretty average in all three phases of the game this season and actually ranked three places lower by overall DVOA at eighteenth compared to last season. Despite getting a playoff win head coach Mike Mularkey was unable to come to an agreement with the Titans’ front office and so they will be looking for someone new to develop Marcus Mariota. The team definitely improved under Mularkey with a pair of winning seasons but the play of their young quarterback does not look to have progressed as you would hope and I have to think they are looking for a new offensive philosophy and someone who can make one of the most dynamic quarterback in recent college history look like that in the pro game. Given the success that the Chiefs and others have had in incorporating elements from the college game into their offence this does seem achievable, but it all depends on who takes over. Still, at least the Titans have progressed and they are no longer a team devoid of talent and identity, but there are some very big decisions to be made this offseason.

The NFL had great pair of games on Sunday and the opener saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars 45-42 and crash out the playoffs at home. The Steelers had got a first round bye with a 13-3 record and finished the regular season ranked inside the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA. However, there were two problems that sank them in this game. I am reluctant to talk about motivation and whether the players were looking past the Jaguars to a conference championship game at the Patriots, a matchup that many had expected for a lot of the season, but what I can say is that the Steelers started slow. The Jaguars got out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, and whilst the Steelers were able to get back into the game, they were never able to get closer than seven points until the very last second of the game with a meaningless touchdown that came too late. The Steelers offence did manage to put up forty-two points against one of the best defences in the league but it was not easy and there had to be a lot of impressive catches and fourth down conversions to get them. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defence never looked the same one Ryan Shazier was lost to the spinal contusion he picked up in the Steelers’ brutal game against the Bengals in week thirteen. The talk has mostly been about fourth down conversions and the slow start, but the Steelers defence let a league average offence with Blake Bortles as their quarterback put up forty-five points on them and that has to hurt.

Some changes are already taking place. There appears to have been discord between offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger but Haley’s contract has expired and he is not being renewed. It looks like quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner will replace him and Roethlisberger looks to be a lot more committed to coming back next season than he was last offseason with all his talk of retirement. Still, given that Shazier had to have spine stabilisation surgery and as far as we know hasn’t walked yet, let alone be anywhere near playing football again (if that is even a possibility), the Steelers will need to address the defence again this offseason but it feels like they should be able to take another deep run next season.

If the first game on Sunday saw an upset against a veteran quarterback, the second saw a miraculous play knock out the New Orleans Saints and their future hall of fame quarterback. The Saints finally managed to assemble a defence that could do enough to get Drew Brees into the playoffs again, ably helped by the league’s best rushing attack by DVOA. Two all NFL rookies helped with this turn around and having seen off the Panthers last week, it looked like the Saints were going to beat the second seeded Minnesota Vikings when they found themselves on fourth down with seconds to go, no timeouts, and were one point behind the Saints. However, another one of the Saints’ rookies, safety Marcus Williams who already had an interception in this game made a horrible play as Stefon Diggs caught a ball in front of him. All Williams had to do was stop Diggs from getting out of bounds and hold him up so Diggs could be tackled in bounds, but he came flying past Diggs without touching him allowing Diggs to turn and suddenly there was no one between him and the end zone. The Vikings fans fortunes finally changed as the miraculous play went their way and the Saints promising season came to a shuddering halt.

That play will haunt Williams all offseason, whilst the franchise will be worrying about re-signing Drew Brees who is an unrestricted free agent. However, given the way this year’s team played, and the potential for their rookie players to develop further next year then it is hard not to see Brees back playing for the Saints and them being very competitive next season. After a number of years where they were asking Brees to do too much, they now look setup to compete as long as Brees is willing and able to play like he did this year. We should make the most of being able to watch him whilst we still can.

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Wildcard Saturday

06 Saturday Jan 2018

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Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 10-6)

The first game of the weekend pits the stumbling Titans against the resurgent Chiefs.

The Chiefs started the season strongly, winning five straight games before losing their way in the middle of the season but having won their last four games they are looking something more like the team that started the season. Ever since Andy Reid handed play calling duties back to his co-ordinator Matt Nagy things have gone better for the Chiefs offence, which finished the season ranked fourth in the NFL by DVOA. However, the defence has continued to struggle, ranked thirtieth overall by DVOA and last is in the league against the run.

The Titans’ season never quite took off this season, but they kept grinding out enough results to make the playoffs. They are not the worst ranked team in the playoffs by DVOA but their offence has struggled and Marcus Mariota has not really looked right all year despite the team investing in receiving options in the offseason. It will not help an offence that was at least top ten in running the ball to be missing running back DeMarco Murray who has been ruled out through injury. The Titans will need to run the ball effectively against the Chiefs’ poor run defence to control the clock if they are to win this game and have lost half of their two pronged back field.

There is a template for the Titans to win this game, but on the road in the famously loud Arrowhead stadium I find it hard to see them running the ball well enough and containing the explosive Chiefs offence enough to win. They might keep it close, this is the playoffs after all, but in the end I think the Chiefs run out winners in this one.

 

Atlanta Falcon (10-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

In one of the games of the weekend the Rams who changed their fortunes so drastically in a year welcomes a Falcons team who are still trying to get over last season.

The Rams made a statement against the Indianapolis Colts in the opening game of the season and have pretty much lived up to it for the rest of the year. In fact the only true bad loss of the year was against Washington in week two. Certainly by the time they faced the Seahawks for a second time they were up for the challenge and got the biggest win for a road team in Seattle in a very long time. There has been a lot of praise for thirty-one year old rookie head coach Sean McVay who has turned round a moribund offence whilst being brave enough to hire Wade Philips and let him do his thing despite Philips being over twice McVay’s age. The offence built around Todd Gurely, who ran for thirteen hundred yards and caught nearly eight hundred yards of passing, has made Jared Goff a competent quarterback and they have put up big scores against the teams they should whilst competing well against better competition. The defence has also played well and is also top ten by DVOA plus boasts in Aaron Donald, a terrifying interior pass rusher who should be defensive player of the year. They may lack playoff experience but they are a formidable proposition.

The Atlanta Falcons were always going to find the year after the lost such a big lead in the Super Bowl difficult, but with Kyle Shanahan leaving to become head coach of the 49ers the offence has stumbled all year. They have more than enough talent and in Julio Jones one of the very best receivers in the league but whilst some regression to the mean after last year’s stellar season was to be expected, this team is only just in the top ten of offences by DVOA and that doesn’t seem good enough. More worrying for them is that starting guard Andy Levitre tried to go in the last game of the season and only managed five plays. Facing Aaron Donald is not the time to have a backup playing one of your interior offensive line spots. Even more worrying for the Falcons is that their defence is a surprising twenty-second by DVOA and whilst I knew that Vic Beasly wasn’t playing with the form he had last season where he was one of the leading sack getters, I thought this fast young defence was better than their DVOA ranking. They also play the same scheme as the Seahawks who the Rams have played twice this year and so it could be a long day against a very good offence.

This looks to be a really good game, and I’m thoroughly looking forward to it, but I have to think that the Rams will win out in the end. That said, some small part of me still thinks that the Falcons of last season might re-appear, but it would be a surprising if the Rams didn’t win..

The Turnaround Three

16 Thursday Nov 2017

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It has been a season of confusion and narrative, but with so much discussion about off field matters (that are covered again in this week’s podcast) I thought I would stick to matters on the field in this blog.

With so many high profile stars injured and several teams turning their fortunes round from last season, there are new teams and faces challenging for the playoffs so I thought I would take a look at three of these teams.

The most obvious turnaround belongs to the LA Rams who currently stand atop the NFC West division with a 7-2 record having racked up three more wins than they managed all of last season. The changes that rookie head coach Sean McVay has already brought to this team have had a dramatic effect on an offence that has already surpassed the points they put up in the entirety of last season, but it is also an indictment of the previous regimes that not only have the Rams won seven games this year, but the other quarterback who suffered on the 2016 team has already got six wins for himself in the eight games he has played for the Minnesota Vikings.

However, even if the turnaround in record is most impressive for the Rams, the team who lead the NFL with eight wins are the Philadelphia Eagles and this is one more win than they managed in total last season. There are some arguing that Carson Wentz is in the running for MVP, but what is undeniable is that the level of his play has improved and that this has brought the Eagles offence alive. The Eagles clearly believe they can make a strong push into the playoffs as they are still bringing in players to bolster their roster as they pick up injuries. The Eagles have a commanding position within their division and it would be surprising if they can’t convert this into a playoff run.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a less commanding position, but have already doubled their number of wins from last season and share the AFC South lead with the Tennessee Titan. They have the second rank defence by DVOA, which considering they have the thirtieth ranked rush defence is a testament to just how good their pass defence has been. The offence is limited and this is what could limit them going forward but they have just had their first three game win streak since 2013 and for the first time in many seasons they stand a chance of making the playoffs.

None of these teams even had a .500 record last season and in under a year they are seriously competing for a division title. There is a lot of talk of parity in the NFL, but these teams are demonstrating that in the NFL you can turn things round quickly, and I haven’t even mentioned the News Orleans Saints who have won seven straight after their own turn around on defence.

It would be great to see all of these teams hit the playoffs, and I would love for the Bills to make it as well given how long their fans have been waiting for a playoff run but I can see it slipping away. The difference this season is that I genuinely feel like the Bills are building something for the future even if they do miss the post season this year.

I look forward to seeing how all of them do this week.

Gee:      Week 10   8-6                     Overall   82-65
Dan:      Week 10   6-8                     Overall   76-71

Titans @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are making harder work of games than they really should given the talent on their roster and they certainly shouldn’t have needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat the Colts by three points on Sunday. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team who have quietly dragged themselves to a 6-3 record and a share of the AFC South lead. It has to be said that there did not appear to be any lingering problems with Marcus Mariota’s hamstring as he ran through the Bengals defence. I’m not confident that the Titans will win given they had to score in the last minute to beat the Bengals last week, but I can’t quite bring myself to pick the Steelers giving eight points and I do fancy the Titans to make a game of it.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know

28 Thursday Sep 2017

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The weekend saw a number of statements and responses to Donald Trump’s rhetoric about disrespecting the flag across the weekend’s NFL games, and several tight finishes. I will pick up the actual football in a minute, but I feel I have to take a moment to broaden a little on what I wrote at the weekend given what happened before kick offs of the week three games.

The kneeling of Colin Kaepernick, and the other players was to protest social injustice and police brutality. This has been reframed as protesting the flag and anthem by those that object to these actions, and by Trump himself. The response from the NFL over the weekend sought to project unity against the criticism of Trump and to say we stand with these players using their first amendment rights, even if they don’t agree with the action themselves.

This does not look to be a problem that is going away any time soon as the actions of the players and owners still upset people, and we shall have to see how things proceed. However, I do think it is important to keep stating the players are not protesting the flag or the anthem, they are making a statement on society.

And so on to the football, which saw multiple close game and signs that teams are finding their way a bit on offence. It was also a topsy-turvy weekend that saw several unexpected results including the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to the Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins losing to the New York Jets. The Baltimore Ravens travelled to London and were totally outplayed by the Jacksonville Jaguars, losing 44-7.

What does this tell us? The honest answer is that we don’t know what we don’t know – i.e. we only have a small sample size and until we get well into October we should treat our general feelings about a team with a pinch of salt. The Cincinnati Bengals have a better defence than their 0-3 record might indicate, but they have a huge amount of work to do if they want to finish with a respectable record, yet alone think about playoffs, which must surely be out of reach. There are plenty more teams like this and I am excited to take a closer look now that coaching tape has hit the European Gamepass site.

Schedule allowing I shall be taking a look at the coaching tape of the Tennessee Titans’ offence taking on the Seattle Seahawks’ defence to see how the managed to be effective against the scary Seahawks’ front seven.

And so onto tonights game, but before that here are the results of our picks last week.

Gee:      Week 3   7-9                       Overall   25-23
Dan:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   20-28

Bears @ Packers (-7.5)

This is an interesting line given that the Green Bay Packers needed overtime to get a win against the winless Bengals on Sunday, and the Chicago Bears just beat the Steelers at home. The Bears are on the road, and I would expect the Packers to find a way to win. However, given their continued injury problems I can’t quite bring myself to back the Packers to win by eight. I may well suffer from the stupidity of picking against Aaron Rodgers at home for a second week in a row, but that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

AAF: The Titans Smash-Mouth Offence

09 Sunday Oct 2016

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For a team that are ranked twenty-first overall in offence by DVOA, I found a lot I liked about the Tennessee Titans’ exotic smash-mouth offence, but there are some critical flaws that are holding them back. However, I do not think these are particularly to do with the structure of the offence.

The first thing I should say is that although the Titans use a lot of double tight end, double tight end with two backs, and even  triple  back formations, they also spend plenty of time in the usual shotgun sets. They use a lot of pre-snap motion and spend a lot of time shifting formations as they move tight ends around, frequently from the backfield to the line or vice versa, but also flexing them out as receivers. They will also frequently keep their receivers close to the line and in bunches.

In this game, DeMarco Murray played the vast majority of snaps at running back, picking up ninety-five yards from twenty-five attempts as he had a mixture of runs that mostly went well with the occasional stop due to a lack of running room. The Titans looked to be pulling their guards often and use plenty of motion to have extra blockers going to where they are intending to run the ball. They managed to get over one hundred yards when you combine all carries and the offence sustained several long drives so whilst they were not generating overwhelming numbers, they would look good in a balanced offence, but this is where the problem lies for the Titans.

I like their use of formations and misdirection, but there are a couple of factors that appeared to be hampering the Titans to my eyes.in the passing game. I like the way that they move Delanie Walker around the formation, but Marcus Mariota was only able to connect to him twice for thirty-four yards despite targeting Walker eight times. In fact, Mariota was only able to complete thirteen of his twenty-nine attempts in this game, which is perhaps not surprising given that he seemed to frequently over throw his target completely or place the ball too high. He only threw one interception, but was simply not productive enough in the passing game. Mariota was not helped by his receivers, who often seemed to struggle to get open on their own or challenge the defence deep. This allowed the Texans to play closer to the line, although they were also helped by several good plays in their secondary with AJ Bouye catching my eye multiple times as he broke up passes. The one exception to all this was when Rishard Matthews got open on a double move and Mariota found him deep for a 60 yard play, but otherwise the Titans really didn’t achieve much in the passing game. Their receivers were often stacked or in trip sets on one side of the formation so they were trying to scheme them open. The only sack of the game came on a play where the Titans were max protecting with only two receivers running routes and Murray slipping out the backfield after a block, but no one was open in time as Mariota was chased down and sacked but this was partly because of his ability to scramble.

I think the Titans’ system could well work, but even if you are trying to focus on running the ball, you need receivers who can get open as if you can’t convincingly make plays in one phase of your offence, then all the defence has to do is focus on stopping the phase that does works. As obvious as it sounds, until some combination of Mariota making more accurate throws and receivers getting more open leads to better passing numbers, this team are going to continue to struggle on offence, and I wonder what the long term goal is for this franchise. If their ownership commits to the current setup then it might be possible to make things work, but they need the front office and coaching staff to work in step for long enough to see it through and I just don’t know if the current coaching/GM setup is good enough or if they will get the time.

NFL Week 16: Titans @ Jaguars Recap and Picks

20 Saturday Dec 2014

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Titans @ Jaguars

This game was not only interesting, buy pretty enjoyable as the Jaguars managed to pick up their third win of the season.

The Titans opened the game strong taking a ten point lead having elected to receive the ball as they wanted to get off to a fast start. And this is exactly what they got in their opening drive, going eighty-four yard with several nice throws by career backup Charlie Whitehurst, including a lovely twenty-one yard pass to Delaine Walker that must have settled the nerves of everyone on the Titans’ sideline.

In fact the story of this game was the quarterback play, along with pass protection issues, and the Jaguars defence.

The Titans played the more consistently on offence, with Whitehurst throwing some lovely balls and them demonstrating a balanced approach. However, I was pretty impressed with the Jaguars defence that played very tough and frequently caused the Titans problems getting four sacks and really stifling the Titans except for a couple of drives. In fact, the only really impressive drive after their opening drive was in the fourth quarter, when Whitehurst drove them up the field with a succession of good looking passes to different receivers. However, when it really mattered he couldn’t get the ball into the end zone, with a lovely pass defence by Jonathan Cyprien on third down resulting in a Titans field goal. The Jaguars made life difficult for him and I was really impressed by fith round pick Telvin Smith who seemed to be popping consistently in good places from inside linebacker.

If you just compare the numbers of the quarterbacks, you would have thought that the Titans’ had won the game with Whitehurst throwing for over twice as many yards as Blake Bortles. However, I think that Bortles had a better game than these numbers indicate as whilst the Titans were bad in pass protection, the Jaguars were horrible. On one of the few times that Bortles stood in the pocket in the first half he got absolutely drilled. The Jaguars made good use of bootlegs, options, and play action to move Bortles in an attempt to get him time to throw, but often even doing this the Titans were really coming after him. However, there were a few lovely passes amongst the wayward and there could be potential here. The other positive, was although Bortles rushed for fifty yards in this game, and there were option plays being run, he only kept the ball once that I remember on one of these and most of the time he was scrambling out of necessity. Another good point about his running was the absence of heroics, Bortles got what yards he could and then got down. He may have escaped a safety and made up twenty-six yards for the first down, but he didn’t take a hit and that bodes well for his longevity. However, we really won’t know if he has the ability to make the throws you need to be a quality starter until he gets an offensive line that can protect him.

The Titans really were pretty nondescript and it will be interesting what approach they take in the offseason to turn things round, where as I really do think there are some good things beginning to be put together in Jacksonville, but it was always going to take time to turn around a team who had been as bad as the Jaguars were.

And now we get back to the week sixteen picks, pausing only to give you the standings after week 15

Gee:      Week 15   11-5                   Overall   112-112
Dan:       Week 15   7-9                     Overall   113-111

Eagles @ Semi-Pros (+8.5)

The Semi-Pros lost their starting quarterback Colt McCoy to a reoccurrence of his neck injury and so it was time for Robert Griffin to return, shortly after being benched, but even if it was good to see him escape the pocket and get into the end zone, he managed to fumble the boy and lose the touchdown. He did have one passing touchdown and more importantly, managed not to throw an interception but the Semi-Pros never got themselves back in the game against the Giants. The new low key Robert Griffin might help calm the media circus that currently sounds the team, but it is going to take a solid offseason of work to correct the litany of faults that Jay Gruden mentioned a few weeks ago. Whether either of them will be with this team to do this is anyone’s guess, but for now they welcome a smarting Eagles team to FedEx Field.

The Eagles fell out of the playoff places after their loss against the Cowboys last week, and will have to win both of their next two games and hope that results go their way to get back in. They could very well go 11-5 and fail to make the playoffs. They have been a very good team with okay quarterback play, which has probably cost them over the last few weeks with Mark Sanchez throwing nine interceptions to ten touchdowns. The other problem they had last week was that they kept leaving Dez Bryant in single coverage, and your pass rush is not going to get to Tony Romo against the Cowboys o-line before Bryant gets open. He is too good of a receiver to let this happen, and in this game he caught six balls for 114 yards and three touchdowns. The good news is that the miss-firing Semi-Pro offence does not offer similar challenges, and their secondary could really struggle against the fast paced Eagles offence.

I expect Chip Kelly’s team to get back to winning ways this week, but I’m not sure they make the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Chargers @ 49ers (-2.5)

The 49ers season continues to fall apart, they performed as I expected last week, and even lost one if the few bright spots of their season when Chris Borland injured his ankle, possibly putting an end to his eye catching debut season. They also finally released Ray McDonald this week, who was not charged with anything following an investigation regarding domestic violence earlier this year, but who is now being investigated on suspicion of sexual assault. The season can’t be over quickly enough for the 49ers so they can sort their coaching situation and start preparing for next season.

The injuries caught up with the Chargers a few weeks ago, but it also appears that quarterback Philip Rivers may be battling a more significant back injury than the team were letting on.  Losing four centres would be enough to cripple any team’s season, yet the Chargers are a very respectable 8-6, and if they can get healthy next year then they could really push on. They have lost their last two games, but given they were facing the Patriots and Broncos this is perhaps not surprising and I think they will get back on track this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Falcons @ Saints (-6.5)

This is another strange game brought to you by the NFC South.

Before the season it would have been unthinkable that the Saints would lose four straight games at home, but that is what they have done, and having beaten the woeful Bears on the road last week, they welcome the Falcons. I really don’t have a handle on this team, their offence is top ten by DVOA but their defence has been an awful thirtieth by DVOA.

The Falcons offence is only ranked one place lower that the Saints despite losing nearly an entire starting line up of offensive linemen, but their defence is even worse, ranked as they are at the bottom of the league.

I am worried about the injury status of Julio Jones, but I’m not sure what the Saints have done to be nearly a touchdown up against anyone at home this season and I think that the Falcons really could win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Lions @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears season continues to be an exercise in pain for their fans, with another loss and the benching of the leagues most expensive offensive player.  Jay Cutler’s stats were horrible last week, and the team may need a change just to mix things up, but there doesn’t seem to be a coherent plan and you have to wonder what is going to happen during the offseason in Chicago.

The Lions got the win against a Vikings team that are playing tough defence, and their offence looked like its troubled self again having had a good couple of weeks. However, those good performances started against the Bears and given the way the Chicago defence has been playing, I think the Lions should be able to get going again and setup a huge final game against the Packers in Lambeau Field.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Browns @ Panthers (-4.5)

The Panthers got their second win over the Buccaneers with Derek Anderson under centre, but we don’t know for sure yet who the starter will be for the Panthers in this game. This should make me nervous about picking this game, but whilst I think they have to start him to find out what they have in their first round pick, Johnny Manziel was awful last week and I think it’s going to be a difficult end to what has been a very promising first season for Mike Pettine in charge of the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Packers @ Buccaneers (+10.5)

The Buccaneers have been playing well on defence recently, but they’ve just lost Gerald McCoy and this is making me hesitant. The Packers may have been peerless at home, but have been much more of mixed bag on the road. The Bills defence has been playing brilliantly all season, and it was a perfect storm of good play and misfires from the Packers that resulted in the Bills winning last week. I don’t see the Buccaneers winning the game, but I’m tempted by the line to back them to cover. If this was a matter of money then I would be staying well away from this game, but as it’s not I’m prepared to just look stupid.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers kept the pressure on in the AFC North race with another win. This is a team that has terrifying ability to take over a game in very little time with explosions of offence as the Bengals learnt to their cost two weeks ago. However, their defence is just flat out bad this season and with a couple of injuries in their secondary, they could be really exploited in this area of the field.

The problem is that whilst the Chiefs will know about the problems with the Steelers defence, they don’t have the receivers to take advantage. You have to admire the coaching staff’s commitment to staying with what works for them, but the fact that they don’t have a receiving touchdown amongst their receivers this season does not bode well when that is the obvious way to attack your opponent. The Chiefs have done amazingly well considering this handicap, but I don’t think the Steelers will be doing the Bengals any favours this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Vikings @ Dolphins (-6.5)

The Dolphins season seems to be fading at the worst time, despite seeing enough development from their third year quarterback Ryan Tannehill to answer a lot of the questions that surrounded him at the start of the season. However, there are questions about the coaching job that Joe Philbin has done this season, but the big concern at the moment is the defence which has been struggling in recent weeks, particularly against the run. This could be a real problem in this game as although the Vikings are ranked twenty-second in offence by DVOA, they are ranked fourth in rushing offence.

The Vikings have quietly gone 6-8 this despite losing Adrian Peterson for the season, and an o-line that has not exactly been giving rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater the protection that he needs. However, Mike Zimmer has his defence playing solidly and his team have been in every game for a month including a narrow two point loss to the Packers, and he has the rushing attack to exploit a Dolphins defence that has struggled against the run in recent weeks. I fancy them to keep this game close and possibly beat a Dolphins team who have seen the playoffs slip out of their grasp.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets (+10.5)

I want to pick the Jets in this game. The double digit lines have been causing me problems for a lot of the season. The problems is that whilst the Jets are playing hard and just got a win against the awful Titans, they are horrible on offence and fatally flawed on defence as they don’t have the cornerbacks to play Rex Ryan’s defensive system.

I still think there are signs that Tom Brady is creeping towards being human, but he and the team have been playing so well since their bad start to the season, and having smashed the Dolphins last week, I think they will cover again this week when they visit the Jets. I may be worried about it being a divisional road game for the Patriots, but that apparently this isn’t going to stop me backing them.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Ravens @ Texans (+4.5)

The Texans have basically run out of quarterbacks with Ryan Fitzpatrick going down with a broken leg. This is such a shame for a team that with a bit more consistency from that position and Arian Foster not missing games could have pushed for a playoff spot. Not only will they miss the playoffs, but a losing record makes it that much harder for JJ Watt to win MVP, even though he has had the most ridiculous of seasons. He has more caught touchdowns than the Chiefs entire receiving corp. However, their problem in this game is that they are starting Case Keenum who was picked up this week off the Rams’ practice squad, but who was with the Texans all through training camp. This is an issue as the glaring place to attack the Ravens is in the passing game as they have just lost yet another member of the secondary, but I just don’t see it happening.

The Ravens are a scarily complete team, with the one glaring flaw I just mentioned, but I don’t see their injured secondary hurting them in this game. The offence is working well, and there defensive front might actually be playing better since Haloti Ngata’s suspension as it has increased Timmy Jernigan’s playing time. They may be on the road in this game, but I don’t expect that to stop them.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Giants @ Rams (-5.5)

The Rams have a defence that is playing really well over the recent weeks (they are top ten by DVOA), but they cannot move the ball on offence and so having got a couple of wins, they were unable to beat the Cardinals last week. I think this should be a close game, but whilst I can see them winning the game, I’m not sure I can see them beating the Giants by this much.

The Giants season has been massively disappointing, but they have one of the most exciting rookie receivers that we have seen in years. They are ranked a few places higher in offence by DVOA, but there defence is much worse. However, the Eli Manning to Odell Beckham Jnr. Connection is so much more effective than anything that the Rams offence can offer that I think it will keep them in the game.

In the end, I’m taking the points in a game where the team records are only separated by a win.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Bills @ Raiders (+5.5)

Oakland crashed back to earth last week with a heavy loss against the Chiefs. They have some pieces to build around for next year, but who will be coaching them and what the plan will be is anyone’s guess at this point. It will be interesting to see how things evolve, but I think we could have seen their last win of the season, as they follow this game against the Bills with a visit to the Broncos.

The Bills got an excellent win against the Packers, and whilst there were some miscues from the Packers offence, the Bills defence continued their strong play and now lead the league in defensive DVOA. I think they will have more than enough to deal with the Raiders this week, and it will be interesting to see what they do about the quarterback position in the offseason, as this is the one thing that give me pause in this game. Still, whilst I’m wary of a drop off from last week, I have no trust in the Raiders and I think it could be a very long day for Derek Carr against the Bills’ fearsome pass rush.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Colts @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Cowboys really impressed me with their win against the Eagles last week, and Tony Romo looked a lot more like the quarterback who played so well at the beginning of the year. The problem is that DeMarco Murray broke his hand and we’re still not sure if he will be playing with a cast. However, I’m prepared to take a risk here as the Cowboys’ offensive line has been simply fabulous this year and I think that any competent back can probably have success behind it. They didn’t get a great deal of yards last week against the Eagles, but the Colts defence is not such a fierce proposition.

The truth is that the Colts have been getting away with it for the last few weeks. Andrew Luck has a surprising number of fumbles and interceptions, and it’s only been down to some redemptive heroics on his part that they haven’t dropped a couple of games. The Patriots were the last team to beat them, but they also gave the league a template for doing it, and the Cowboys have the offensive line to run the ball down the throat of the Colts defence like the Pats did in week eleven. I think this will be an interesting game, and could reveal a lot about both of these teams’ prospects in the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ Cardinals (7.5)

This is going to be an ugly game, both teams are playing good defence and both have their challenges on offence.

The Cardinals have had so many injuries, but Ryan Lindley as quarterback might be a handicap too far for the Cardinals who somehow have only three losses despite being on their third starting quarterback and the fourth to play for them this season. They have not been running the ball well for most of the season, but did manage to do so last week with a balance of Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor.

The Seahawks have been back to their best on defence over the last few weeks and are peaking at the right time of the season. No one will want to play them at the moment, but they are limited on offence as Russell Wilson doesn’t’ have the skill players to throw to. I think that the Seahawks are going to win this game, but I don’t see them having enough offence against the Cardinals defence to get a win big enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5)

I am terrified of this game. The Bengals looked really good against the Browns last week, but a high pressure Monday Night Football appearance is not what I would have chosen for a must win game if we are to make the playoffs. This is a chance for our January woes to come a visiting in December, and whilst I’m happy that we’ve seem to have found the right balance in the run game, the defence is not where it was last year in terms of consistency and run stopping, whilst everything sits on Andy Dalton’s big game play. Like I said, I have no confidence in this game.

The Broncos have been winning ugly in recent weeks, and something is going on with Peyton Manning as although he’s been throwing wobbly balls for years, they are lacking zip and he hasn’t had a good performance since week thirteen. The bad new for the Bengals is that the Broncos seem to have found a formula to run the ball and their defence has been playing well all season. They may not be dominating like they were earlier this season or last year, but they have built the team to win in other ways than riding the arm of Manning and I suspect this will seem them through in this game.

I would love for this to be a break out game for Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton, a win here could turn around the narrative surrounding them in big games, and at the beginning of the season I was hopeful that they could get a playoff win and push on as there is so much talent on the roster, but I’m still haunted by the previous losses to the Patriots and Browns in prime TV spots. Prove me wrong guys!

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Special

18 Thursday Dec 2014

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My Schedule this week is horrible so I am posting the Thursday night preview now, and will be putting up a recap and the rest of the week’s games up over the weekend, hopefully avoiding breaking the games into a further two parts now that we have Saturday games to contend with as well.

I somehow managed a miraculous comeback last week, going 11-5 to take four games out of what I thought was an unassailable five game lead for Dan. I can’t pretend to be excited about tonight’s game, but I think it will be interesting and part of me is sad that once again I won’t get to go through any coaching tape, so onto:

Titans @ Jaguars (-3.5)

With all the exciting games that have playoff implications, we get the Titans at the Jaguars this week, pitting the thirtieth ranked team by overall DVOA against the thirty-first.

The Jaguars defence is the best unit on display, playing respectably tough and are ranked sixteenth by DVOA, but the Jaguars’ offence is horrible and ranked dead last. I don’t think we can know if Blake Bortles is the long term answer until he is playing behind a line that can offer him any kind of protection. They have invested draft picks in this unit, but they have not panned out and a major focus this offseason has to be to upgrade the line so they can see what they have in their quarterback and young receivers. The good news is that much like a couple of other teams with poor records, the players are working really hard for their coach and so I don’t think it is time for a massive overhaul as the Jaguars are building something, but they need more talent.

The Titans seem to be one of the most nondescript franchises in the league, and this is most exemplified by the fact that the player who has performed the best from their opening day roster, is Akeem Ayers, who only started to play really well after being traded to the Patriots. Unfortunately for them, their rookie quarterback Zack Mettenberger has been forced out with injury before he could establish if he was a viable long term starter so the only thing we can say for certain is that given that Jake Locker is injured yet again, we can be pretty sure he isn’t. This is a team that is ranked by DVOA as twenty-ninth in offense, twenty-eighth in defence, and twentieth in special teams, and so there doesn’t seem to be anything they can hang their hat on as an identity.

I’m really uncomfortable with this pick, but I can’t bring myself to back the Titans on the road, so whilst it seems strange to pick the Jaguars over anybody, I think they will win out in this game.

Gee’s Pick:           Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:           Jaguars