Tag Archives: Tennessee Titans

Quarterbacks and Injuries

03 Wednesday Oct 2018

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Here we are, preparing for week five after which all the teams will have played four games and I can try to run through the entire league in a panic at the quarter pole post, but we are already beginning to get a bit more of a feel for how the league is shaping up.

Of the young quarterbacks that seem to be the story of the league so far this year, Patrick Mahomes traveled to Denver Monday night and struggled comparatively for him so far this year but still found a way to get the win for the  Kansas City Chiefs against the Broncos, whilst Mitch Trubisky threw for six touchdowns as the Bears thumped the Tamps Bay Buccaneers. I have only seen the highlights of the Bears game and yes there were a lot of wide open people catching the ball, but I thought Trubisky looked good in terms of his footwork and whilst you can’t expect this every week it is a promising sign that Matt Nagy can find a way to keep his team competitive in the division with Trubisky as his quarterback.

Speaking of the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers pitched a shutout against the Buffalo Bills who reverted to type and were bad in this game. This leaves them one game behind the Bears but one ahead of the Minnesota Vikings who could not keep up with the LA Rams on Thursday night but then no team has this season. With quarterbacks on the mind I should also mention that one of the reasons the Rams look so good is that Jared Goff is absolutely thriving in Sean McVay’s office and threw some absolutely amazing balls to beat the Vikings coverage. The Detroit Lions lost a close game to the Dallas Cowboys who managed to find some offence this week, which is not how the Lions and Matt Patricia will have wanted to follow up their impressive win against the Patriots.

I hesitate to do this, and it is perhaps lucky that Dan is on holiday this week as the Miami Dolphins got demolished in New England. There is a reason why everyone was hesitant to write off the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and this was it. They ran for one hundred and seventy-five yards and got themselves back to 2-2 before Julian Edelman comes back next week. Things could well still go wrong but it would surprise no one if come December the Patriots are once again top of their division.

The other perennial contender that is struggling at the start of this season were not so lucky as the Pittsburgh Steelers failed to win their second division game as they lost at home to the Baltimore Ravens to go 1-2-1. We have seen dips of form before with the Steelers, but with the Le’Veon Bell situation rumbling on and a defence that is not the kind we usually associate with this franchise there could be real problems. They face the Atlanta Falcons next week in a game that will very much be decided by who can score the most points as the Falcons are struggling to stop anybody on defence. In week four this benefited the Cincinnati Bengals who squeezed out a 37-36 win game despite losing Tyler Eifert to a season ending injury for the third straight year. This was heart breaking as Eifert had finally had a healthy offseason and it was a horrible ankle break, but at least it wasn’t connected to his previous back/ankle injuries. Eifert has so much talent and it’s really sad he’s so seldom been able to make the most of it or get to that lucrative multi-year second contract given what he has produced when he has been on the field.

The other big injury from the weekend was to Earl Thomas who had been playing well for the Seattle Seahawks despite hardly practicing in protest at the Seahawks refusal to trade him after not giving him a new contract. The middle digit he offered to the bench was a sign of the frustration a player must feel when what he feared materialises, but a broken leg is at least an injury that shouldn’t affect him next season. That may not be that much comfort to a safety going into his thirties though, particularly given the lack of activity in signing veteran free agent safeties this off-season and this is exactly why Le’Veon Bell is holding out as he fears a similar injury when running backs are treated with even more scepticism as they approach thirty.

I think I will end this week’s round up though with a team who may not be playing pretty football week to week, but have got themselves a winning record despite multiple injuries. In week one the teams with new head coaches went 0-7 but rookie head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have now won three straight games despite Marcus Mariota sustaining a nerve injury in week one that has led to numbness in the fourth and fifth fingers of his throwing hand as well as grip issues, and his backup Blaine Gabbert being lost to a concussion in the opening quarter of their week three game against the Jaguars. The Titans may only be ranked twenty-sixth on offence by DVOA and fifteenth by defence, but they are top ten in special teams and are finding a way in win games. It also helped that Mariota looked better in this week’s overtime win against the Philadelphia Eagles where Mariota played with a modified glove on his throwing hand where the first and second fingers had been cut off so he could feel the ball but the glove could help his week fingers/hand. I’m sure this is not what offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur was not expecting to have to deal with this when he joined the staff, but the Titans have remained competitive in the AFC South and will be looking to build on this solid start. This is a pretty impressive achievement for Mike Vrabel who does not have that much coaching experience compared to a lot of coaches yet alone experience running a team. Let’s see how sustainable this is.

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Plays, Penalties, and Injuries

26 Wednesday Sep 2018

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18-09-26 Josh Allen TD

Image Credit: wyosports.net

So Wednesday marks the transition from one NFL week to the next as I move from catching up on games and highlights, evaluating the news to preparing to make picks, even if I won’t start the coaching tape for Week three until tomorrow, but more of that later.

I’m currently reading The Score Take Care of Itself by Bill Walsh, and whilst I haven’t got very far yet, the section on the 49ers losing to the Miami Dolphins and coping with adversity rings ever so true. This week we have some coaches who will be facing down despair and problems, whilst others will have taken a moment to savour a win before swiftly moving on to the next week’s game.

The usual king of this, as exemplified by his famous, ‘We’re on to Cincinnati.’ press conference back in 2014, is Bill Belichick who will be trying to turn around the fortunes of his 1-2 team who got thoroughly outplayed by the Detroit Lions. I’m not sure too many people saw that one coming and we had a couple of reminders in week 3 of the old maxim that anything could happen on any given Sunday. The Patriots struggled on offensive as they continue to falter when running the ball and haven’t found the right mix in the passing game. We may see Josh Gordon if they can get him worked into the mix this week and after they take on the Dolphins this weekend they will have Julian Edelman back from suspension but it could take a while for this be sorted. I’m not going to overreact as it is early and I’ve written several times about how the Patriots plan to peak later in the season but for context the Patriots haven’t lost three straight since 2002 when they had a four game losing streak and missed out on the playoffs (they still had a winning 9-7 record).

Perhaps more surprising even than the Lions getting a win over the Patriots was the Buffalo Bills travelling to Minnesota and beating the Vikings 27-6 as Josh Allen managed to rushing touchdowns as well as a passing one. The Vikings will be looking to shake things off quickly as they are on the road in LA for the Thursday night game against the Rams and I’ve heard several people suggest that the Vikings had one eye on this game and that is why they had such a surprisingly poor game against a team they overlooked. I always find such talk a little troubling as I have no way of verifying and the infrastructure for the Vikings is such that my default would be to think it was an aberration that will quickly be righted but given the Packers (who the Vikings drew with last week) lost to Washington this week and the only team the Vikings have beat are the 49ers there is perhaps some concern that there might be deeper problems. Definitely one to keep and eye on, whilst I will have to take a look at Josh Allen on coaching tape this week to find out just how he managed to lead the Bills to a comfortable win.

In fact, there’s quite a lot I wish I could watch in more details including games I didn’t even see the highlights for. Apart from the two upsets I have already mentioned, the New York Giants travelled to the Houston Texans and won, surely placing even more pressure on head coach Bill O’Brien, whilst the Tennessee Titans managed to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars despite starting Blaine Gabbert and then having to play Marcus Mariota despite the limitations he has from a nerve injury when Gabbert was ruled out the game with a concussion. It has to be said that Mike Vrabel has done well to win two games given his quarterback situation and whilst it is far too small a sample size to draw any big conclusions about him as a coach, it is encouraging. Less encouraging is a third loss for  Oakland Raiders under Jon Gruden who along with the Arizona Cardinals join the Texans as the only teams yet to register a win this season.

The Atlanta Falcons lost a barnstormer of a game 42-37 to the New Orleans Saints, with Drew Brees spinning to get the winning score and the Falcons losing a second starting safety for the season to injury so things are getting increasingly tough for them.

Sadly for the San Francisco 49ers, Jimmy Garoppplo was lost for the season with a torn ACL as he tried to gain some extra yards rushing out of bounds. There has been a lot of focus on the steps the NFL are taking to protect the quarterbacks and with the effect losing that one player has on a team I can understand it up to a point. However, with another seemingly form tackle by Clay Matthews resulting in a penalty, not to mention the string of penalties some linemen are picking up in games the new interpretation of the roughing the passer penalty is definitely a huge talking point. In fact the Dolpins (who I’m sure Dan would like me to remind you are 3-0) lost William Hayes to a torn ACL on a sack that head coach Adam Gase is blaming on the new rules. If players are injuring themselves trying to comply with the new rules and some of the bigger name quarterbacks are suggesting that things have gone too far then perhaps the league will look at it. I don’t want to argue that the league has gone soft, and frankly I think this has more to do with keeping the star quarterbacks playing the safety concerns, but a lot of the plays that have been penalised were simply tackles and I have no idea how a two hundred and ninety pound player fighting his way past an offensive linemen to tackle a quarterback, who are often not exactly small themselves, are supposed to lay said quarterback gently to the turf so they don’t risk an injury. You need a certain amount of momentum to tackle a player and explosiveness to get there before the pass is thrown so a lot of these defenders are being put in a very difficult if not an impossible position.

There have been a number of exciting games, and I think we’d all much rather be focussing attention on say the amazing start to the season Patrick Mahomes has had in Andy Reid’s offence or how the LA Rams are ominously rolling through the season, but until the roughing the passer penalties slow down the conversation about the zebras could keep dominating the conversation and frankly I’d much rather be focussed on the surprises and the good play that is happening in the league. After all, the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills won this week, all things are possible.

Great Start To The Season… Except For Our Fantasy Team!

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

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Ok, it’s Tuesday which means it’s Blogging time for me! I’m just back from watching a boring England side in ‘the Other Football’ beat Switzerland in a boring friendly… such a comedown from a great weekend of NFL!

Where to start? Well, the Dolphins I suppose! Good win for the fins this week against a battered and bruised Tennessee Titans – this despite two weather related game breaks meaning the game which started at 6pm over here in England went on to finish just after 1:20am on Monday morning! It’s a good job my boss knows why I’m always knackered on Mondays during the season. On a serious note, I was impressed by Miami – we looked renewed which was nice, and special mentions have to go to Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake (who I can see running through some dirty great holes in defences this year), a debuting Minkah Fitzpatrick (who made some critical defensive stops) and Ryan Tannehill who looked fresh returning from Injury.

Speaking of which, there were a few QBs coming back this week. I got to see some of Deshaun Watson for the Texans and Andrew Luck for the Colts. It won’t be long before Watson is back to his best, but Andrew Luck is going to struggle if his line let him get hit as much as he did by the Bengals in the coming weeks.

Image Credit – nypost.com

Honourable QB mentions should also go to Aaron Rodgers, who lead his team to an incredible comeback victory even with an injured leg, after being down by more than 20 points, and Ryan Fitzpatrick who threw over 400 yards and got himself a couple of touchdowns in the process – hands up who had him in their fantasy team? …anyone?? If he carries on like that, Jamies Winston will struggle to get back in when his suspension is up.

The Browns did the most Brownsy thing they possibly could and when attempting a medium range kick to win their game with the Steelers in overtime, managed to get it blocked and come away with a tie. It means they definitely won’t go 0-16 this year but it would have been nice of them to get one in the W column in a divisional game week one. Le’veon Bell will have been a keen spectator of that game, having not travelled with Pittsburgh for this one due to his ongoing contractual hold-out. I can’t see him leaving the Steelers, but some of their key players will be knocking on management’s door this week trying to get a deal done and get him back in yellow and black.

Image Credit – CBS Sports

And my early pick for the Super Bowl, the Rams, managed a good win on Monday too. Not managed to watch that game yet but I’ll pick that up in the next few days. So, “how’s the odds chart looking Dan?” I hear you cry! Well, like this, I reply:

Odds are down to 10-1 after week one actually making them third favourites – level with the Eagles and behind only the Vikings and the Patriots. Not bad after one game!

The Wrong Football fantasy team didn’t manage to get off to a winning start unfortunately, beaten by 192.5 to 183.4. This disappoints me having gone unbeaten with the ‘Suh Tang Clan’ 2 years ago (I might have mentioned it once or twice on the pod…!!). I’ll be wheeling and dealing in the market this week as I was too late to pick up a good Running back off waivers and Lynch is questionable. The full team looks something like this:

Feedback welcomed, but I can’t promise to listen!!

Anyway, before I go this week, quick shout to Darren Butler (@darrenbutler87) who gave me a great little bit of trivia this week which I wanted to share with you…

“For three years between 1983 and 1986 the Heisman Trophy Winner was not drafted by an NFL Franchise, with all three opting to join the USFL spring series instead.”

Lovely little stat that! In the spirit of our trivia competition, if you’ve got a good bit of NFL trivia to share (useless or otherwise – the more ‘pub knowledge’ the better!) drop me a tweet @TWFDan and you may get a mention here next week!

That’s all for now. Until next time…

@TWFDan

AFC Preview

04 Tuesday Sep 2018

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18-09-04 AFC

With the new season only days away I thought I would take you through a whistle-stop tour of the league starting with an AFC preview and I’ll give the NFC teams their own post before the Philadelphia Eagle and Atlanta Falcons get things under way on Thursday.

I don’t particularly like making predictions as there are too many variables and injury luck is can be such a huge part of team success so I’ll be breaking the divisions up into favourites, competitive, and likely to struggle as I work my way round the division compass so without further ado let’s make a start on the .

AFC North

Much as it is painful for a Bengals fan to say it, the favourite to take the AFC North division is still the Pittsburgh Steelers. They may have questions at linebacker thanks to Ryan Shazier’s injury, but the defence still finished top ten last year by DVOA in and the options in their offence are still terrifying. Time is ticking for Ben Roethlisberger but as long as he doesn’t suffer a dramatic fall off then this is going to be one of the teams of the conference who should have their eyes on the Super Bowl.

The AFC North is always a tough division, and even when the Browns are struggling they are often a tough out, but not so much under Hue Jackson. However, with a defence that has looked good in pre-season and the additions of Jarvis Landy and Tyrod Taylor as well as new offensive co-ordinator Toddy Haley it at least feels like the infrastructure for success is more solid. In a position to let rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield develop and not rush him I think the Browns will be more competitive than last season, but whether their ill-discipline (they got penalised a lot in pre-season) will allow them to win games I don’t know. I think we’ll know a lot more about this team by the end of the first four games.

The Baltimore Ravens are another team who are perennially competitive but had to do it with defence and special teams last year. With a kicker like Justin Tucker you can mask a lot of deficiencies in offence but the thing the Ravens coaches might be most happy about having drafted Lamar Jackson this year is the fire it seems to have lit under long time quarterback Joe Flacco. He may also have been helped by better receiving options and being healthy in the offseason for the first time in two years but if the Ravens’ Super Bowl winning play caller can lead the offensive to a better ranking than twenty-first by DVOA the Ravens will be right in contention for the playoffs again.

I’ve written a fair amount about the Cincinnati Bengals this pre-season and it is telling that neither of the offensive tackles two years that they drafted to prepare for a transition of talent have worked out whilst Andrew Whitworth looked great for the LA Rams last year. With new playbooks on both sides of the ball there have been a lot of changes to coaching and the roster. Whilst the Bengals have another young team there seemed to be a lot to like and if the O-line gels, then Andy Dalton should have a much easier time finding his myriad of skill players. I’m not pencilling them into the playoffs, but I’m not ruling it out and I wasn’t sure that would be the case when it was announced the Marvin Lewis was coming back.

AFC East

Is this the year that the New England Patriots falter? For the first time Tom Brady was not ever present through the off-season, their first round offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn ruptured his Achillies after they let starting left tackle Nate Solder leave in free-agency, and this was a team that went to the Super Bowl with a defence ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA so they can ill afford an offensive wobble. I think we’re all at the point where we’ll believe Tom Brady is done when he has signed his retirement papers, but what will help them is that none of the rest of the division are exactly standing up as challengers at the moment and so the Patriots look to be favourites still. This could finally change though.

The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time in eighteen attempts last seasons, but they responded to this by cutting the quarterback that got them there, not signing the linebacker that led the league in tackles and trading their left tackle to the Bengals in the draft manoeuvres required to get their quarterback of the future. Have traded away AJ McCarron they have opted to go with rookie Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman as their QBs, but whilst Peterman has looked good in pre-season and Allen has flashed, the Bengals defensive line had a field day against Buffalo’s o-line and it could be a very long season for whoever starts. I was impressed with everything Sean McDermott did last season bar benching Tyrod Taylor but I don’t think this season’s roster is better than last years and I have a nasty feeling they will struggle for a lot of the season.

If you trade away your best offensive and defensive players for chemistry reasons, you had better have an awful lot of talent coming in and I’m not sure that Miami Dolphins do. I thought they had a good draft and I would say Adam Gase is a good coach but I’m not at all sure of the roster construction and this feels like the latest in a long series of make or break seasons for Ryan Tannehill. I believe that Gase can keep the locker room together and make them competitive but it would not surprise me if they fall into a difficult season. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong, if only to cheer Dan through the season.

Finally we have the New York Jets, and I though Todd Bowles did an excellent job of coaching with a lack of talent on the roster last season and not sure many other coaches would have got as many wins. The most ready of the rookie quarterbacks fell into their laps in the draft and Sam Darnold looked good enough in pre-season that the Jets traded Teddy Bridgewater to the New Orleans Saints. I think it will take another or season or two to turn things round and I don’t know if Bowles will get the chance to complete the job, but I can see the Jets equalling their record of last season. There will be ups and downs with a rookie quarterback but the real question for this season is have the Jets finally got a franchise QB. Everything else after that can wait.

AFC South

The Jacksonville Jaguars continued to build their defence, stuck with Blake Bortles and their big free agent signing was a offensive guard. I thought that Bortles might have learnt a thing or two in last season’s playoff run but with the exodus at receiver and the injury to Marqise Lee this team will be as reliant as ever on their defence and the run game. The good news is that the defence will be no less scary and they should rightly be considered the favourites for this division.

The Houston Texans may have only won four games last season, but they revealed they could have a bright future as long as the young quarterback Deshaun Watson can recover his blistering form from last season before his knee injury. With the defence hoping a number of players stay healthy, including JJ Watt this could be really good team even if the offensive line looks to be a big problem. There are a lot of ifs there so whilst the Texans will start out competitively, how long they will remain so is the big question.

The Tennessee Titans ground their way into the playoffs with a run first offence and a defence that ranked twenty-first in the league by DVOA. This was not enough to save Mike Mularkey his job and there rookie head coach Mike Vraebel is hoping that Matt LaFleur can revitalise the offence and fourth year quarterback Marcus Mariota. The coaches with links to Bill Belichick have not necessary flourished as head coaches and Vraebel has limited experience as the man with ultimate responsibility so I am very curious to see how he goes. The honest answer is I’m not sure so this is one of the teams we’ll need to follow closely through the start of the season.

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled mightily with Andrew Luck being out injured but this also laid bare the problems with the rest of the roster and whilst there are signs that things are improving in the second year of Chris Ballard’s rebuild, a lot will depend on Andrew Lucks surgically repaired and extensively rehabbed shoulder. The good news is that he’s back to starting but new head coach Frank Reich will be hoping that he can get enough from his franchise quarterback that the season can be a success, but I have a feeling that being competitive would qualify as just that and would be a good place to start.

AFC South

The Kansas City Chiefs won the division last year and I have too much faith in Andy Reid to see this team as anything other than competitive and I would place them as favourites to win the division. That is despite trading Alex Smith to Washington to promote Patrick Mahomes as the starter after a season where the young quarterback sat on the bench. Mahomes has the arms to make use of the myriad of skills players the Chiefs can use in their offence that has borrowed liberally from college, whilst their defence was only ranked thirtieth by DVOA last year when they won the division. It wouldn’t take much to improve that ranking and with the potential of their offence the Chiefs could be one of the most fun teams to watch this season.

The other potential favourite in this division could be the LA Chargers but it would require them to get out of their own way and they couldn’t quite manage that last season. The abiding image of Philip Rivers for me these days is a player somehow functioning as an effective quarterback despite minimal protection from his line. The defence was just outside of the top ten with a fearsome pass rush led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa and they should be competitive again this season. The problem is that they have a nasty habit of losing close games and their ‘home’ games in LA were frequently more like home games for the opposition thanks to fan turnout. I’d like to think they can improve but I’m not willing to just outright declare it, although I’d be very willing to be proved wrong again.

I’m not entirely sure where to begin with the currently Oakland soon to be Las Vegas Raiders. The big move of the off-season would have been luring Jon Gruden out of the commentary booth nine years after he last coached except they have just traded Khalil Mack, one of the best young defensive players in the league, to the Chicago Bears. The reasoning is that the Mack’s contract demands were just too big, and the Bears wasted no time in signing Mack to a six year deal with $90 million guaranteed days after Aaron Donald signed a contract with $87 million guaranteed. The difference between the three franchises is that the Rams still have a young quarterback on their rookie contract as does the Bears, whilst the Raiders have already signed Derek Carr to a five year extension. The issue is that Gruden has been out of the league for a while, even if he was staying plugged into the NFL through his media gig, and the defence his brother Jay Gruden [I appear to have gone made, too many ex-Bengal coordinators involved as it is in fact Paul Guenther who is the new defensive coordinator – Ed.] takes over was ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA with Khalil Mack. I’m really not sure what to expect out of the Raiders this year, and whilst I can see the salary cap argument to an extent (I don’t study it hard, maybe that’s a task for next off-season) the Mack trade amongst others does nothing to help the Raiders now and I think this club will be in for a very interesting time this year.

Last year’s AFC West strugglers the Denver Broncos will be hoping that the addition of Case Keenum at quarterback will be enough of an upgrade to the offence to give the still competitive if retooled defence a chance of winning games. In the one game I saw them this preseason the offensive line still looked to be a problem but after a good pre-season from Chad Kelly, the Paxton Lynch development plan has finally been shelved. It is way too soon to question a GM who has won a Super Bowl and given his history as franchise quarterback you would think that the job is John Elway’s as long as he wants it. However, whilst he’s made a number of sharp moves in free-agency, his record in the draft is a bit patchier and his choice of Vance Joseph as head coach didn’t exactly yield the early returns that Elway would have hoped for. Still, if either Keenum or Kelly can make the offence competitive then the Broncos will be a team no one will want to face, especially at home and that could be enough for them to be in the playoff race come December.

The Playoff Fallen

20 Saturday Jan 2018

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So I need to catch up with the teams who have departed the playoffs so having started this post last week, here’s my now finished run through the playoff fallen starting with the losing wild card teams.

The first team to fall were the Kansas City Chiefs who managed to lose a game to the Tennessee Titans that they were leading 21-3 at half time. The Chiefs have been up and down this season with a significant mid-season lull that gave way to a four game win streak coming into their playoff game against the Titans. However, a number of factors combined for the Chiefs to lose this Wildcard game and demonstrated one of the warts that has affected them all year. The defence of the Chiefs has had problems ever since safety Eric Berry ruptured his Achilies, but their overall ranking of thirtieth by DVOA and dead last against the run showed up in this game when the Chiefs failed to stop the Titans’ second half come back and Derrick Henry finishing the game with one hundred and fifty-six rushing yards. The Chief offence also came to a sputtering stop once Travis Kelce left the game with a concussion meaning the Titans could focus on stopping the speedy Chiefs receivers with two deep safeties. The Chiefs further played into this by only giving Kareem Hunt elven carries in the entire game and running Alex Smith at inopportune moments. The Cheifs’ recent playoff record is also clearly on their usually very loud crowd’s mind as it got quieter the better the Titans did, although I defy any fan to be confident when the opposing quarterback throws a touchdown pass to himself.

This could well be Alex Smith’s final game for the Chiefs given his 1-4 playoff record in the five season that he and head coach Andy Reid have been with the franchise and with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings. I don’t believe this loss can really be blamed on Smith and they could stick with him as they develop a still raw Mahomes but patience does seem to be wearing thin for a section of their fans and the narrative seems to be that Smith will leave in the offseason. Their current offensive co-ordinator Matt Nagy has already left to be the new head coach of the Chicago Bears and with Smith’s current playoff record perhaps it is time to change with a new coordinator coming in. The defence will also need an overhaul given the age of a number of players and their reliance on a twenty-nine year old safety who will be recovering from an Achilles injury next season. In recent years the Chiefs have been competitive but their approach last offseason seemed to be split between short term and long term agendas and I am curious to see how they approach this one.

The second team to lose on wild car weekend were the LA Rams whose remarkable turnaround season couldn’t overcome the playoff experience of the Atlanta Falcons whose defence was able to stifle the Rams offence. This was mainly due to excellent tackling against the short routes so although Todd Gurley did get over one hundred yards on the ground, he was not able to dominated in the way he has for much of the season. As frustrating as this loss was, part of the problem were repeated special teams miscues by Pharoh Cooper early in the game, which was not a reflection of his Pro Bowl special teams play through the year. Still, this was a season of marked improvement for the Rams with plenty of young players to grow with their coach and you would expect them to be competitive next season but it has to be hard for Andrew Whitworth to lose another wild card playoff game.

The Buffalo Bills scraped into the playoffs on the back of a final drive fourth down touchdown pass from the Bengals’ Andy Dalton but they couldn’t overcome the Jaguars in their first playoff game in eighteen years. The Bills defence managed to contain the Jaguars offence by committing to stopping the run and daring Blake Bortles to beat them in his first playoff game. This plan could have worked if Tyrod Taylor didn’t have nearly as bad a game as Bortles and LeSean McCoy was fully healthy, but the offence couldn’t do enough and the game was lost 10-3. This was still a turnaround for the Bills and first year head coach Sean McDermott has things to work on but offensive co-ordinator Rick Dennison paid the price and the Bills will be one of several teams looking for a quarterback this offseason. The Bills could continue their improvement, but they will be limited until they get a quarterback and offence in place that everyone in the franchise believes in.

The final wild card game saw the Carolina Panthers lose to the New Orleans Saints for the third time this year. The Panthers have been very solid on defence all year, but their offence has been very up and down. A slow start was not that surprising given that Cam Newton was coming off shoulder surgery in the offseason and the Panthers were trying a new approach, but this never really took and the offence didn’t really start to work until Newton began to run more. This made the play of Newton very important for how the offence went, which is not that unusual for a quarterback but Newton’s size ability to run, whilst being a dangerous weapon, has to make up for his volatility in the passing game. When Newton is on he is as dangerous a quarterback as there is in the league, but with injuries at receiver (the Panthers also traded away Kelvin Benjamin during the season) and Newton’s favourite target tight end Greg Olsen battling with a foot injury that was clearly still affecting him, he was not able to beat the Saints despite playing well. Going into the offseason the Panthers have replaced offensive co-ordinator Mike Shula with Norv Turner so a new offence will be installed in the summer and it will be fascinating to see how these changes work and how Newton takes to although at least he will be able to practise this offseason.

Moving on to last week’s games and the first team to fall were the Atlanta Falcons who couldn’t match their performance against the Rams when they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in a tight competitive game. The Falcons were only able to score ten points on the league’s fifth ranked defence by DVOA but whilst the offensive rankings of the Falcons don’t look bad (tenth in passing and sixteenth rushing by DVOA) it does feel like this unit underachieved given the calibre of players available. Yes some regression from last year’s stellar performance was to be expected but it has been a difficult year for Steve Sarkisian in taking over from Kyle Shanahan and whilst he is coming back next season, there will be pressure to improve or the discontent could cause real problems. This could be true for the whole staff given the painful playoff exit and the Super Bowl last year given that both games were winnable. Still, if the offence can be brought round and the defence continues its rise the Falcons could be very formidable next season.

The Tennessee Titans had done well to win their first game against the Chiefs, but there are limits and it was always going to be a tough job to go into Gillette stadium and beat the New England Patriots. To their credit, the Titans kept it competitive for a quarter and took a 7-0 lead before the Patriots shook off the rust from their bye week and ran out easy 35-14 winners. The Titans were pretty average in all three phases of the game this season and actually ranked three places lower by overall DVOA at eighteenth compared to last season. Despite getting a playoff win head coach Mike Mularkey was unable to come to an agreement with the Titans’ front office and so they will be looking for someone new to develop Marcus Mariota. The team definitely improved under Mularkey with a pair of winning seasons but the play of their young quarterback does not look to have progressed as you would hope and I have to think they are looking for a new offensive philosophy and someone who can make one of the most dynamic quarterback in recent college history look like that in the pro game. Given the success that the Chiefs and others have had in incorporating elements from the college game into their offence this does seem achievable, but it all depends on who takes over. Still, at least the Titans have progressed and they are no longer a team devoid of talent and identity, but there are some very big decisions to be made this offseason.

The NFL had great pair of games on Sunday and the opener saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars 45-42 and crash out the playoffs at home. The Steelers had got a first round bye with a 13-3 record and finished the regular season ranked inside the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA. However, there were two problems that sank them in this game. I am reluctant to talk about motivation and whether the players were looking past the Jaguars to a conference championship game at the Patriots, a matchup that many had expected for a lot of the season, but what I can say is that the Steelers started slow. The Jaguars got out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, and whilst the Steelers were able to get back into the game, they were never able to get closer than seven points until the very last second of the game with a meaningless touchdown that came too late. The Steelers offence did manage to put up forty-two points against one of the best defences in the league but it was not easy and there had to be a lot of impressive catches and fourth down conversions to get them. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defence never looked the same one Ryan Shazier was lost to the spinal contusion he picked up in the Steelers’ brutal game against the Bengals in week thirteen. The talk has mostly been about fourth down conversions and the slow start, but the Steelers defence let a league average offence with Blake Bortles as their quarterback put up forty-five points on them and that has to hurt.

Some changes are already taking place. There appears to have been discord between offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger but Haley’s contract has expired and he is not being renewed. It looks like quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner will replace him and Roethlisberger looks to be a lot more committed to coming back next season than he was last offseason with all his talk of retirement. Still, given that Shazier had to have spine stabilisation surgery and as far as we know hasn’t walked yet, let alone be anywhere near playing football again (if that is even a possibility), the Steelers will need to address the defence again this offseason but it feels like they should be able to take another deep run next season.

If the first game on Sunday saw an upset against a veteran quarterback, the second saw a miraculous play knock out the New Orleans Saints and their future hall of fame quarterback. The Saints finally managed to assemble a defence that could do enough to get Drew Brees into the playoffs again, ably helped by the league’s best rushing attack by DVOA. Two all NFL rookies helped with this turn around and having seen off the Panthers last week, it looked like the Saints were going to beat the second seeded Minnesota Vikings when they found themselves on fourth down with seconds to go, no timeouts, and were one point behind the Saints. However, another one of the Saints’ rookies, safety Marcus Williams who already had an interception in this game made a horrible play as Stefon Diggs caught a ball in front of him. All Williams had to do was stop Diggs from getting out of bounds and hold him up so Diggs could be tackled in bounds, but he came flying past Diggs without touching him allowing Diggs to turn and suddenly there was no one between him and the end zone. The Vikings fans fortunes finally changed as the miraculous play went their way and the Saints promising season came to a shuddering halt.

That play will haunt Williams all offseason, whilst the franchise will be worrying about re-signing Drew Brees who is an unrestricted free agent. However, given the way this year’s team played, and the potential for their rookie players to develop further next year then it is hard not to see Brees back playing for the Saints and them being very competitive next season. After a number of years where they were asking Brees to do too much, they now look setup to compete as long as Brees is willing and able to play like he did this year. We should make the most of being able to watch him whilst we still can.

Wildcard Saturday

06 Saturday Jan 2018

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Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 10-6)

The first game of the weekend pits the stumbling Titans against the resurgent Chiefs.

The Chiefs started the season strongly, winning five straight games before losing their way in the middle of the season but having won their last four games they are looking something more like the team that started the season. Ever since Andy Reid handed play calling duties back to his co-ordinator Matt Nagy things have gone better for the Chiefs offence, which finished the season ranked fourth in the NFL by DVOA. However, the defence has continued to struggle, ranked thirtieth overall by DVOA and last is in the league against the run.

The Titans’ season never quite took off this season, but they kept grinding out enough results to make the playoffs. They are not the worst ranked team in the playoffs by DVOA but their offence has struggled and Marcus Mariota has not really looked right all year despite the team investing in receiving options in the offseason. It will not help an offence that was at least top ten in running the ball to be missing running back DeMarco Murray who has been ruled out through injury. The Titans will need to run the ball effectively against the Chiefs’ poor run defence to control the clock if they are to win this game and have lost half of their two pronged back field.

There is a template for the Titans to win this game, but on the road in the famously loud Arrowhead stadium I find it hard to see them running the ball well enough and containing the explosive Chiefs offence enough to win. They might keep it close, this is the playoffs after all, but in the end I think the Chiefs run out winners in this one.

 

Atlanta Falcon (10-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

In one of the games of the weekend the Rams who changed their fortunes so drastically in a year welcomes a Falcons team who are still trying to get over last season.

The Rams made a statement against the Indianapolis Colts in the opening game of the season and have pretty much lived up to it for the rest of the year. In fact the only true bad loss of the year was against Washington in week two. Certainly by the time they faced the Seahawks for a second time they were up for the challenge and got the biggest win for a road team in Seattle in a very long time. There has been a lot of praise for thirty-one year old rookie head coach Sean McVay who has turned round a moribund offence whilst being brave enough to hire Wade Philips and let him do his thing despite Philips being over twice McVay’s age. The offence built around Todd Gurely, who ran for thirteen hundred yards and caught nearly eight hundred yards of passing, has made Jared Goff a competent quarterback and they have put up big scores against the teams they should whilst competing well against better competition. The defence has also played well and is also top ten by DVOA plus boasts in Aaron Donald, a terrifying interior pass rusher who should be defensive player of the year. They may lack playoff experience but they are a formidable proposition.

The Atlanta Falcons were always going to find the year after the lost such a big lead in the Super Bowl difficult, but with Kyle Shanahan leaving to become head coach of the 49ers the offence has stumbled all year. They have more than enough talent and in Julio Jones one of the very best receivers in the league but whilst some regression to the mean after last year’s stellar season was to be expected, this team is only just in the top ten of offences by DVOA and that doesn’t seem good enough. More worrying for them is that starting guard Andy Levitre tried to go in the last game of the season and only managed five plays. Facing Aaron Donald is not the time to have a backup playing one of your interior offensive line spots. Even more worrying for the Falcons is that their defence is a surprising twenty-second by DVOA and whilst I knew that Vic Beasly wasn’t playing with the form he had last season where he was one of the leading sack getters, I thought this fast young defence was better than their DVOA ranking. They also play the same scheme as the Seahawks who the Rams have played twice this year and so it could be a long day against a very good offence.

This looks to be a really good game, and I’m thoroughly looking forward to it, but I have to think that the Rams will win out in the end. That said, some small part of me still thinks that the Falcons of last season might re-appear, but it would be a surprising if the Rams didn’t win..

The Turnaround Three

16 Thursday Nov 2017

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It has been a season of confusion and narrative, but with so much discussion about off field matters (that are covered again in this week’s podcast) I thought I would stick to matters on the field in this blog.

With so many high profile stars injured and several teams turning their fortunes round from last season, there are new teams and faces challenging for the playoffs so I thought I would take a look at three of these teams.

The most obvious turnaround belongs to the LA Rams who currently stand atop the NFC West division with a 7-2 record having racked up three more wins than they managed all of last season. The changes that rookie head coach Sean McVay has already brought to this team have had a dramatic effect on an offence that has already surpassed the points they put up in the entirety of last season, but it is also an indictment of the previous regimes that not only have the Rams won seven games this year, but the other quarterback who suffered on the 2016 team has already got six wins for himself in the eight games he has played for the Minnesota Vikings.

However, even if the turnaround in record is most impressive for the Rams, the team who lead the NFL with eight wins are the Philadelphia Eagles and this is one more win than they managed in total last season. There are some arguing that Carson Wentz is in the running for MVP, but what is undeniable is that the level of his play has improved and that this has brought the Eagles offence alive. The Eagles clearly believe they can make a strong push into the playoffs as they are still bringing in players to bolster their roster as they pick up injuries. The Eagles have a commanding position within their division and it would be surprising if they can’t convert this into a playoff run.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a less commanding position, but have already doubled their number of wins from last season and share the AFC South lead with the Tennessee Titan. They have the second rank defence by DVOA, which considering they have the thirtieth ranked rush defence is a testament to just how good their pass defence has been. The offence is limited and this is what could limit them going forward but they have just had their first three game win streak since 2013 and for the first time in many seasons they stand a chance of making the playoffs.

None of these teams even had a .500 record last season and in under a year they are seriously competing for a division title. There is a lot of talk of parity in the NFL, but these teams are demonstrating that in the NFL you can turn things round quickly, and I haven’t even mentioned the News Orleans Saints who have won seven straight after their own turn around on defence.

It would be great to see all of these teams hit the playoffs, and I would love for the Bills to make it as well given how long their fans have been waiting for a playoff run but I can see it slipping away. The difference this season is that I genuinely feel like the Bills are building something for the future even if they do miss the post season this year.

I look forward to seeing how all of them do this week.

Gee:      Week 10   8-6                     Overall   82-65
Dan:      Week 10   6-8                     Overall   76-71

Titans @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are making harder work of games than they really should given the talent on their roster and they certainly shouldn’t have needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat the Colts by three points on Sunday. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team who have quietly dragged themselves to a 6-3 record and a share of the AFC South lead. It has to be said that there did not appear to be any lingering problems with Marcus Mariota’s hamstring as he ran through the Bengals defence. I’m not confident that the Titans will win given they had to score in the last minute to beat the Bengals last week, but I can’t quite bring myself to pick the Steelers giving eight points and I do fancy the Titans to make a game of it.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know

28 Thursday Sep 2017

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The weekend saw a number of statements and responses to Donald Trump’s rhetoric about disrespecting the flag across the weekend’s NFL games, and several tight finishes. I will pick up the actual football in a minute, but I feel I have to take a moment to broaden a little on what I wrote at the weekend given what happened before kick offs of the week three games.

The kneeling of Colin Kaepernick, and the other players was to protest social injustice and police brutality. This has been reframed as protesting the flag and anthem by those that object to these actions, and by Trump himself. The response from the NFL over the weekend sought to project unity against the criticism of Trump and to say we stand with these players using their first amendment rights, even if they don’t agree with the action themselves.

This does not look to be a problem that is going away any time soon as the actions of the players and owners still upset people, and we shall have to see how things proceed. However, I do think it is important to keep stating the players are not protesting the flag or the anthem, they are making a statement on society.

And so on to the football, which saw multiple close game and signs that teams are finding their way a bit on offence. It was also a topsy-turvy weekend that saw several unexpected results including the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to the Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins losing to the New York Jets. The Baltimore Ravens travelled to London and were totally outplayed by the Jacksonville Jaguars, losing 44-7.

What does this tell us? The honest answer is that we don’t know what we don’t know – i.e. we only have a small sample size and until we get well into October we should treat our general feelings about a team with a pinch of salt. The Cincinnati Bengals have a better defence than their 0-3 record might indicate, but they have a huge amount of work to do if they want to finish with a respectable record, yet alone think about playoffs, which must surely be out of reach. There are plenty more teams like this and I am excited to take a closer look now that coaching tape has hit the European Gamepass site.

Schedule allowing I shall be taking a look at the coaching tape of the Tennessee Titans’ offence taking on the Seattle Seahawks’ defence to see how the managed to be effective against the scary Seahawks’ front seven.

And so onto tonights game, but before that here are the results of our picks last week.

Gee:      Week 3   7-9                       Overall   25-23
Dan:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   20-28

Bears @ Packers (-7.5)

This is an interesting line given that the Green Bay Packers needed overtime to get a win against the winless Bengals on Sunday, and the Chicago Bears just beat the Steelers at home. The Bears are on the road, and I would expect the Packers to find a way to win. However, given their continued injury problems I can’t quite bring myself to back the Packers to win by eight. I may well suffer from the stupidity of picking against Aaron Rodgers at home for a second week in a row, but that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

AAF: The Titans Smash-Mouth Offence

09 Sunday Oct 2016

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For a team that are ranked twenty-first overall in offence by DVOA, I found a lot I liked about the Tennessee Titans’ exotic smash-mouth offence, but there are some critical flaws that are holding them back. However, I do not think these are particularly to do with the structure of the offence.

The first thing I should say is that although the Titans use a lot of double tight end, double tight end with two backs, and even  triple  back formations, they also spend plenty of time in the usual shotgun sets. They use a lot of pre-snap motion and spend a lot of time shifting formations as they move tight ends around, frequently from the backfield to the line or vice versa, but also flexing them out as receivers. They will also frequently keep their receivers close to the line and in bunches.

In this game, DeMarco Murray played the vast majority of snaps at running back, picking up ninety-five yards from twenty-five attempts as he had a mixture of runs that mostly went well with the occasional stop due to a lack of running room. The Titans looked to be pulling their guards often and use plenty of motion to have extra blockers going to where they are intending to run the ball. They managed to get over one hundred yards when you combine all carries and the offence sustained several long drives so whilst they were not generating overwhelming numbers, they would look good in a balanced offence, but this is where the problem lies for the Titans.

I like their use of formations and misdirection, but there are a couple of factors that appeared to be hampering the Titans to my eyes.in the passing game. I like the way that they move Delanie Walker around the formation, but Marcus Mariota was only able to connect to him twice for thirty-four yards despite targeting Walker eight times. In fact, Mariota was only able to complete thirteen of his twenty-nine attempts in this game, which is perhaps not surprising given that he seemed to frequently over throw his target completely or place the ball too high. He only threw one interception, but was simply not productive enough in the passing game. Mariota was not helped by his receivers, who often seemed to struggle to get open on their own or challenge the defence deep. This allowed the Texans to play closer to the line, although they were also helped by several good plays in their secondary with AJ Bouye catching my eye multiple times as he broke up passes. The one exception to all this was when Rishard Matthews got open on a double move and Mariota found him deep for a 60 yard play, but otherwise the Titans really didn’t achieve much in the passing game. Their receivers were often stacked or in trip sets on one side of the formation so they were trying to scheme them open. The only sack of the game came on a play where the Titans were max protecting with only two receivers running routes and Murray slipping out the backfield after a block, but no one was open in time as Mariota was chased down and sacked but this was partly because of his ability to scramble.

I think the Titans’ system could well work, but even if you are trying to focus on running the ball, you need receivers who can get open as if you can’t convincingly make plays in one phase of your offence, then all the defence has to do is focus on stopping the phase that does works. As obvious as it sounds, until some combination of Mariota making more accurate throws and receivers getting more open leads to better passing numbers, this team are going to continue to struggle on offence, and I wonder what the long term goal is for this franchise. If their ownership commits to the current setup then it might be possible to make things work, but they need the front office and coaching staff to work in step for long enough to see it through and I just don’t know if the current coaching/GM setup is good enough or if they will get the time.

NFL Week 16: Titans @ Jaguars Recap and Picks

20 Saturday Dec 2014

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Titans @ Jaguars

This game was not only interesting, buy pretty enjoyable as the Jaguars managed to pick up their third win of the season.

The Titans opened the game strong taking a ten point lead having elected to receive the ball as they wanted to get off to a fast start. And this is exactly what they got in their opening drive, going eighty-four yard with several nice throws by career backup Charlie Whitehurst, including a lovely twenty-one yard pass to Delaine Walker that must have settled the nerves of everyone on the Titans’ sideline.

In fact the story of this game was the quarterback play, along with pass protection issues, and the Jaguars defence.

The Titans played the more consistently on offence, with Whitehurst throwing some lovely balls and them demonstrating a balanced approach. However, I was pretty impressed with the Jaguars defence that played very tough and frequently caused the Titans problems getting four sacks and really stifling the Titans except for a couple of drives. In fact, the only really impressive drive after their opening drive was in the fourth quarter, when Whitehurst drove them up the field with a succession of good looking passes to different receivers. However, when it really mattered he couldn’t get the ball into the end zone, with a lovely pass defence by Jonathan Cyprien on third down resulting in a Titans field goal. The Jaguars made life difficult for him and I was really impressed by fith round pick Telvin Smith who seemed to be popping consistently in good places from inside linebacker.

If you just compare the numbers of the quarterbacks, you would have thought that the Titans’ had won the game with Whitehurst throwing for over twice as many yards as Blake Bortles. However, I think that Bortles had a better game than these numbers indicate as whilst the Titans were bad in pass protection, the Jaguars were horrible. On one of the few times that Bortles stood in the pocket in the first half he got absolutely drilled. The Jaguars made good use of bootlegs, options, and play action to move Bortles in an attempt to get him time to throw, but often even doing this the Titans were really coming after him. However, there were a few lovely passes amongst the wayward and there could be potential here. The other positive, was although Bortles rushed for fifty yards in this game, and there were option plays being run, he only kept the ball once that I remember on one of these and most of the time he was scrambling out of necessity. Another good point about his running was the absence of heroics, Bortles got what yards he could and then got down. He may have escaped a safety and made up twenty-six yards for the first down, but he didn’t take a hit and that bodes well for his longevity. However, we really won’t know if he has the ability to make the throws you need to be a quality starter until he gets an offensive line that can protect him.

The Titans really were pretty nondescript and it will be interesting what approach they take in the offseason to turn things round, where as I really do think there are some good things beginning to be put together in Jacksonville, but it was always going to take time to turn around a team who had been as bad as the Jaguars were.

And now we get back to the week sixteen picks, pausing only to give you the standings after week 15

Gee:      Week 15   11-5                   Overall   112-112
Dan:       Week 15   7-9                     Overall   113-111

Eagles @ Semi-Pros (+8.5)

The Semi-Pros lost their starting quarterback Colt McCoy to a reoccurrence of his neck injury and so it was time for Robert Griffin to return, shortly after being benched, but even if it was good to see him escape the pocket and get into the end zone, he managed to fumble the boy and lose the touchdown. He did have one passing touchdown and more importantly, managed not to throw an interception but the Semi-Pros never got themselves back in the game against the Giants. The new low key Robert Griffin might help calm the media circus that currently sounds the team, but it is going to take a solid offseason of work to correct the litany of faults that Jay Gruden mentioned a few weeks ago. Whether either of them will be with this team to do this is anyone’s guess, but for now they welcome a smarting Eagles team to FedEx Field.

The Eagles fell out of the playoff places after their loss against the Cowboys last week, and will have to win both of their next two games and hope that results go their way to get back in. They could very well go 11-5 and fail to make the playoffs. They have been a very good team with okay quarterback play, which has probably cost them over the last few weeks with Mark Sanchez throwing nine interceptions to ten touchdowns. The other problem they had last week was that they kept leaving Dez Bryant in single coverage, and your pass rush is not going to get to Tony Romo against the Cowboys o-line before Bryant gets open. He is too good of a receiver to let this happen, and in this game he caught six balls for 114 yards and three touchdowns. The good news is that the miss-firing Semi-Pro offence does not offer similar challenges, and their secondary could really struggle against the fast paced Eagles offence.

I expect Chip Kelly’s team to get back to winning ways this week, but I’m not sure they make the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Chargers @ 49ers (-2.5)

The 49ers season continues to fall apart, they performed as I expected last week, and even lost one if the few bright spots of their season when Chris Borland injured his ankle, possibly putting an end to his eye catching debut season. They also finally released Ray McDonald this week, who was not charged with anything following an investigation regarding domestic violence earlier this year, but who is now being investigated on suspicion of sexual assault. The season can’t be over quickly enough for the 49ers so they can sort their coaching situation and start preparing for next season.

The injuries caught up with the Chargers a few weeks ago, but it also appears that quarterback Philip Rivers may be battling a more significant back injury than the team were letting on.  Losing four centres would be enough to cripple any team’s season, yet the Chargers are a very respectable 8-6, and if they can get healthy next year then they could really push on. They have lost their last two games, but given they were facing the Patriots and Broncos this is perhaps not surprising and I think they will get back on track this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Falcons @ Saints (-6.5)

This is another strange game brought to you by the NFC South.

Before the season it would have been unthinkable that the Saints would lose four straight games at home, but that is what they have done, and having beaten the woeful Bears on the road last week, they welcome the Falcons. I really don’t have a handle on this team, their offence is top ten by DVOA but their defence has been an awful thirtieth by DVOA.

The Falcons offence is only ranked one place lower that the Saints despite losing nearly an entire starting line up of offensive linemen, but their defence is even worse, ranked as they are at the bottom of the league.

I am worried about the injury status of Julio Jones, but I’m not sure what the Saints have done to be nearly a touchdown up against anyone at home this season and I think that the Falcons really could win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Lions @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears season continues to be an exercise in pain for their fans, with another loss and the benching of the leagues most expensive offensive player.  Jay Cutler’s stats were horrible last week, and the team may need a change just to mix things up, but there doesn’t seem to be a coherent plan and you have to wonder what is going to happen during the offseason in Chicago.

The Lions got the win against a Vikings team that are playing tough defence, and their offence looked like its troubled self again having had a good couple of weeks. However, those good performances started against the Bears and given the way the Chicago defence has been playing, I think the Lions should be able to get going again and setup a huge final game against the Packers in Lambeau Field.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Browns @ Panthers (-4.5)

The Panthers got their second win over the Buccaneers with Derek Anderson under centre, but we don’t know for sure yet who the starter will be for the Panthers in this game. This should make me nervous about picking this game, but whilst I think they have to start him to find out what they have in their first round pick, Johnny Manziel was awful last week and I think it’s going to be a difficult end to what has been a very promising first season for Mike Pettine in charge of the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Packers @ Buccaneers (+10.5)

The Buccaneers have been playing well on defence recently, but they’ve just lost Gerald McCoy and this is making me hesitant. The Packers may have been peerless at home, but have been much more of mixed bag on the road. The Bills defence has been playing brilliantly all season, and it was a perfect storm of good play and misfires from the Packers that resulted in the Bills winning last week. I don’t see the Buccaneers winning the game, but I’m tempted by the line to back them to cover. If this was a matter of money then I would be staying well away from this game, but as it’s not I’m prepared to just look stupid.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers kept the pressure on in the AFC North race with another win. This is a team that has terrifying ability to take over a game in very little time with explosions of offence as the Bengals learnt to their cost two weeks ago. However, their defence is just flat out bad this season and with a couple of injuries in their secondary, they could be really exploited in this area of the field.

The problem is that whilst the Chiefs will know about the problems with the Steelers defence, they don’t have the receivers to take advantage. You have to admire the coaching staff’s commitment to staying with what works for them, but the fact that they don’t have a receiving touchdown amongst their receivers this season does not bode well when that is the obvious way to attack your opponent. The Chiefs have done amazingly well considering this handicap, but I don’t think the Steelers will be doing the Bengals any favours this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Vikings @ Dolphins (-6.5)

The Dolphins season seems to be fading at the worst time, despite seeing enough development from their third year quarterback Ryan Tannehill to answer a lot of the questions that surrounded him at the start of the season. However, there are questions about the coaching job that Joe Philbin has done this season, but the big concern at the moment is the defence which has been struggling in recent weeks, particularly against the run. This could be a real problem in this game as although the Vikings are ranked twenty-second in offence by DVOA, they are ranked fourth in rushing offence.

The Vikings have quietly gone 6-8 this despite losing Adrian Peterson for the season, and an o-line that has not exactly been giving rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater the protection that he needs. However, Mike Zimmer has his defence playing solidly and his team have been in every game for a month including a narrow two point loss to the Packers, and he has the rushing attack to exploit a Dolphins defence that has struggled against the run in recent weeks. I fancy them to keep this game close and possibly beat a Dolphins team who have seen the playoffs slip out of their grasp.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets (+10.5)

I want to pick the Jets in this game. The double digit lines have been causing me problems for a lot of the season. The problems is that whilst the Jets are playing hard and just got a win against the awful Titans, they are horrible on offence and fatally flawed on defence as they don’t have the cornerbacks to play Rex Ryan’s defensive system.

I still think there are signs that Tom Brady is creeping towards being human, but he and the team have been playing so well since their bad start to the season, and having smashed the Dolphins last week, I think they will cover again this week when they visit the Jets. I may be worried about it being a divisional road game for the Patriots, but that apparently this isn’t going to stop me backing them.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Ravens @ Texans (+4.5)

The Texans have basically run out of quarterbacks with Ryan Fitzpatrick going down with a broken leg. This is such a shame for a team that with a bit more consistency from that position and Arian Foster not missing games could have pushed for a playoff spot. Not only will they miss the playoffs, but a losing record makes it that much harder for JJ Watt to win MVP, even though he has had the most ridiculous of seasons. He has more caught touchdowns than the Chiefs entire receiving corp. However, their problem in this game is that they are starting Case Keenum who was picked up this week off the Rams’ practice squad, but who was with the Texans all through training camp. This is an issue as the glaring place to attack the Ravens is in the passing game as they have just lost yet another member of the secondary, but I just don’t see it happening.

The Ravens are a scarily complete team, with the one glaring flaw I just mentioned, but I don’t see their injured secondary hurting them in this game. The offence is working well, and there defensive front might actually be playing better since Haloti Ngata’s suspension as it has increased Timmy Jernigan’s playing time. They may be on the road in this game, but I don’t expect that to stop them.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Giants @ Rams (-5.5)

The Rams have a defence that is playing really well over the recent weeks (they are top ten by DVOA), but they cannot move the ball on offence and so having got a couple of wins, they were unable to beat the Cardinals last week. I think this should be a close game, but whilst I can see them winning the game, I’m not sure I can see them beating the Giants by this much.

The Giants season has been massively disappointing, but they have one of the most exciting rookie receivers that we have seen in years. They are ranked a few places higher in offence by DVOA, but there defence is much worse. However, the Eli Manning to Odell Beckham Jnr. Connection is so much more effective than anything that the Rams offence can offer that I think it will keep them in the game.

In the end, I’m taking the points in a game where the team records are only separated by a win.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Bills @ Raiders (+5.5)

Oakland crashed back to earth last week with a heavy loss against the Chiefs. They have some pieces to build around for next year, but who will be coaching them and what the plan will be is anyone’s guess at this point. It will be interesting to see how things evolve, but I think we could have seen their last win of the season, as they follow this game against the Bills with a visit to the Broncos.

The Bills got an excellent win against the Packers, and whilst there were some miscues from the Packers offence, the Bills defence continued their strong play and now lead the league in defensive DVOA. I think they will have more than enough to deal with the Raiders this week, and it will be interesting to see what they do about the quarterback position in the offseason, as this is the one thing that give me pause in this game. Still, whilst I’m wary of a drop off from last week, I have no trust in the Raiders and I think it could be a very long day for Derek Carr against the Bills’ fearsome pass rush.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Colts @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Cowboys really impressed me with their win against the Eagles last week, and Tony Romo looked a lot more like the quarterback who played so well at the beginning of the year. The problem is that DeMarco Murray broke his hand and we’re still not sure if he will be playing with a cast. However, I’m prepared to take a risk here as the Cowboys’ offensive line has been simply fabulous this year and I think that any competent back can probably have success behind it. They didn’t get a great deal of yards last week against the Eagles, but the Colts defence is not such a fierce proposition.

The truth is that the Colts have been getting away with it for the last few weeks. Andrew Luck has a surprising number of fumbles and interceptions, and it’s only been down to some redemptive heroics on his part that they haven’t dropped a couple of games. The Patriots were the last team to beat them, but they also gave the league a template for doing it, and the Cowboys have the offensive line to run the ball down the throat of the Colts defence like the Pats did in week eleven. I think this will be an interesting game, and could reveal a lot about both of these teams’ prospects in the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ Cardinals (7.5)

This is going to be an ugly game, both teams are playing good defence and both have their challenges on offence.

The Cardinals have had so many injuries, but Ryan Lindley as quarterback might be a handicap too far for the Cardinals who somehow have only three losses despite being on their third starting quarterback and the fourth to play for them this season. They have not been running the ball well for most of the season, but did manage to do so last week with a balance of Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor.

The Seahawks have been back to their best on defence over the last few weeks and are peaking at the right time of the season. No one will want to play them at the moment, but they are limited on offence as Russell Wilson doesn’t’ have the skill players to throw to. I think that the Seahawks are going to win this game, but I don’t see them having enough offence against the Cardinals defence to get a win big enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5)

I am terrified of this game. The Bengals looked really good against the Browns last week, but a high pressure Monday Night Football appearance is not what I would have chosen for a must win game if we are to make the playoffs. This is a chance for our January woes to come a visiting in December, and whilst I’m happy that we’ve seem to have found the right balance in the run game, the defence is not where it was last year in terms of consistency and run stopping, whilst everything sits on Andy Dalton’s big game play. Like I said, I have no confidence in this game.

The Broncos have been winning ugly in recent weeks, and something is going on with Peyton Manning as although he’s been throwing wobbly balls for years, they are lacking zip and he hasn’t had a good performance since week thirteen. The bad new for the Bengals is that the Broncos seem to have found a formula to run the ball and their defence has been playing well all season. They may not be dominating like they were earlier this season or last year, but they have built the team to win in other ways than riding the arm of Manning and I suspect this will seem them through in this game.

I would love for this to be a break out game for Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton, a win here could turn around the narrative surrounding them in big games, and at the beginning of the season I was hopeful that they could get a playoff win and push on as there is so much talent on the roster, but I’m still haunted by the previous losses to the Patriots and Browns in prime TV spots. Prove me wrong guys!

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos