Monthly Archives: December 2015

Week 16 Picks

27 Sunday Dec 2015

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With writing around Christmas I thought I’d take a slightly longer look at each team as I go through the rest of the week sixteen picks and wait for Dan to send me his.

Panthers @ Falcons (+7.5)

The Falcons finally halted the skid last week as they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. This year has definitely been an improvement, and I think it is too early to be thinking about replacing Matt Ryan, but they will need to solidify their line and give Ryan more passing options as well as improving their defence in the offseason if they want to continue the improvement next year.

Meanwhile the Panthers are coming off a win against the Giants in a game which the locker room were saying felt like a loss. The Panthers are unbeaten so far this season, and we are getting into that time of year where some teams will be thinking of resting players and I just don’t know what Ron Rivera will be planning to do with his team.

I am not expecting a repeat of the shutout win that the Panthers had in Carolina two weeks ago, but the Panthers will want to keep the stretch going and backup quarterback Derek Anderson won games last year if they do rest Cam Newton. Part of me wants to pick the Falcons as it is a divisional game and the Falcons would love to put a spanner in the works and end the unbeaten run, but I think the Panthers will go into the last game undefeated and I think they’ll cover the points too.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers

Cowboys @ Bills (-5.5)

The Bills have not lived up to their pre-season billing, with Rex Ryan making the defence demonstrably worse this season with basically the same pieces as last year. The offence has improved with Tyrod Taylor playing well in his first year as a starting quarterback and Sammy Watkins beginning to show his first round pedigree, but the Bills have been too ill disciplined to sustain success.

The Cowboys season was derailed by injuries to key offensive personnel, but if they were going to compete in a poor NFC East they needed to win more games whilst Tony Romo was initially out with a broken collar bone. They were unable to do this, and Romo came back early to pick up a win before reinjuring his collar bone.

This is a curious game for me to pick, but although I think the Bills should win, with them missing LeSean McCoy and the season they have had so far I cannot bring myself to back the Bills to win by six points. A feat they have only managed four times this season, and two of those were against a struggling Dolphins team.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys

Bears @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Buccaneers have faltered in the last couple of weeks, but they have still made strides this year and have at least solved the question of who will be their quarterback for the next few years. Not only has Jameis Winston put up some impressive figures, but he has not thrown as many interceptions as people feared given his college career. The defence will need to play more consistently next year for them to improve, and Winston could do with his offensive line getting better again next season, but there is at least something to build on.

It was thought that the Chicago Bears were going to be horrible this year, and the season certainly started badly, but slowly John Fox and his staff have made them competitive. I wouldn’t like to predict what moves they will make in the offseason, and if they are going to stick with Jay Cutler, but certainly the defence has begun to get comfortable in their new system.

The Bears are travelling to Tampa Bay coming off a third straight loss, but four of their five wins have come on the road this season. I am really not sure which way to go on this game as I don’t have much idea of how the game will go, but I can’t quite bring myself to back the Bears and have lost too many times picking road underdogs this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Browns @ Chiefs (-12.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs started this season horribly, going 1-5 before turning their season round and winning eight straight to get themselves back into the playoff hunt, and they still have a shot at winning the AFC West if the Broncos continue to drop games. Their defence is currently ranked fourth by DVOA, whilst their offence has found a way despite losing Jamaal Charles earlier in the season. The addition of free agent Jeremy Maclin has helped a passing game that famously struggled to get the ball to receivers last season.

The Browns are a mess, and it is hard to say much more than that. They have a head coach that has a defensive background, and yet have gone backwards on that side of the ball this year, whilst the offence has faltered and they don’t have a starting quarterback they all believe in or even trust. There are signs that Johnny Manziel has made some improvements on the field, but there have been further issues off it, and it is hard to see any team committing to him at this point. I say this as it is very possible Manziel gets traded in the offseason as there could be a front office shake up once the season is done. This a team that has done a bad job of finding talent in recent years and that has missed on too many first round picks, so it would not be a surprise if they start the offseason looking for a new GM.

The points are high for this game, but the Chiefs beat the Ravens by twenty points on the road last week, and welcome a Browns team that has the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA. Not only that, but the Browns’ last close loss against a team with a winning record was back in week six against an offensively challenged Broncos team.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Lions (-8.5)

The Lions have had a strange season that started badly and led to coach firings and their owner clearing house in the front office. The change in offensive coordinator does seem to have had an effect on the offence, but it is hard to know what direction they will go in the offseason until we know who will be making the decisions. This includes whether the Lions will keep Jim Caldwell, who managed to get the win last week against the Saints, but never strikes you as the most demonstrative of head coaches. I don’t know if this is actually a bad thing, but without following the team really closely or interacting with him as an individual it is hard to gauge, and hiring a head coach is one of the key things a GM gets to do so the new appointment may well want to pick their own candidate.

This week the Lions welcome the struggling 49ers to Detroit, but given the amount of talent the 49ers lost it is going to be a difficult few seasons in San Francisco. The most hopeful conversation I have heard recently for the 49ers is that in Blaine Gabbert they have found a quarterback that could hold the fort for them whilst they develop a quarterback behind him. Certainly the draft doesn’t seem to hold a ready to start quarterback this year and the 49ers have too many holes to reach for one if there is a better player at another position.

The 49ers defence has played better at home this year, but with them being on the road it is hard to foresee anything other than a win for the Lions, particularly as they lost to the Browns after their last win against the Bears. However, this feels like too many points to me, and so whilst I don’t feel confident about it I will back the 49ers to cover

Gee’s Pick:      49ers

Texans @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans season has not seen them get a lot of wins, but their defence has been better this year, and they appear to have a young quarterback they can build round. This was not enough to keep Ken Whisenhunt in a job, and Mike Mularkey may not have won enough games to make the job his either. Only time will tell what is going to happen in Tennessee this offseason, but it will be one to keep an eye on.

The Texans have had a strange year, but thanks to playing in the AFC South and the problems in Indianapolis they stand atop of the division with a 7-7 record. They have had four different people play quarterback for them this year, thanks to a combination of the early indecision by head coach Bill O’Brien and recent injuries. However, the defence has come around from earlier in the season, and JJ Watt has quietly been having another stellar year despite breaking his hand in practice a couple of weeks ago.

The Texans may be on the road this week, but with the playoffs within their grasp I can’t see them losing to the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans

Colts @ Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins were one of the teams that had supposedly done well in the offseason, but as is often the case this did not translate into actual wins. There have been multiple coach firings and you have to think that interim head coach Dan Campbell will be gone at the end of the season. There are points of hope for the franchise, but as I have said multiple times on the podcast, they will need to address their secondary and offensive line if they want to compete in a tough division.

The Colts season has been a mess, and whilst backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck defied my reasoning that Ryan Grigson had not done a good job building a roster around Andrew Luck for a couple of games, he his now showing his age as repeatedly gets hit. Their offence has struggled all year, whilst their defence has taken a small step back, but there could be changes in the offseason as owner James Irsay cannot be happy with the way things have gone.

I don’t really want to pick either side in this game, but I will go for the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets (+3.5)

The Jets have had a very good season in Todd Bowles’s first year as head coach, with both sides of the ball improving and some stability finally seeming to descend on an often turbulent franchise. Some of the additions in the offseason don’t look to be long term solutions due to the age of players, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has been undeniably effective with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as they look to secure a playoff berth.

The Patriots season could have been derailed by injuries were it not for the continued excellence of Bill Belichick and his staff. For many there will always be an asterisk next to Belichick’s name, but he is an undeniably great coach and to keep his team winning with the injury issues they have had on the offensive line and receiver. The defence retooled their secondary successfully after letting their Super Bowl winning starting corners go in the offseason, but have managed to maintain their record despite changing their approach.

However, Belichick is already discussing resting starters having had it serve him well last season and with them being on the road I suspect this will be a tight game in New York given that the Jets only lost by a touchdown in New England. I could regret this, but I am going to take the points in this one as I believe it will be a close game.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets

Steelers @ Ravens (+10.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are usually seen as a well run franchise, but the questions I had about their secondary were compounded by a string of injuries that has led them to have a horrible season. You would trust the infrastructure to rebuild successfully in the offseason, but this is a rare write-off year for this team.

The Steelers have had their own injury woes this season, including the loss of arguably the best running back in the league, but with an outstanding trio of receivers their offence is still terrifying and their defence has been doing enough for them to be making a late surge into playoff contention.

The Ravens lost a tight overtime game earlier in the season, and will be desperate to stick it to a divisional rival and possibly stop them getting into the playoffs. I would love to pick the Ravens, but with the questions at quarterback and how well the Steelers offence is playing I can’t bring myself to do it, so although it wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens did manage to keep it close, I think the Steelers will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers

Jaguars @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints are in salary cap hell, and their defence has looked simply horrendous as it is rooted to the bottom of the Football Outsiders DOVA rankings with a huge gap to the thirty-first ranked San Diego defence. There are rumours of Sean Payton going to Miami, or any other team the Saints face with questions at head coach, but he has been unable to sort his defence suspensions since the Bounty Gate suspensions so it will be interesting to see how he does next season whether he is in New Orleans or not. They have managed to look good at times on offence, but Drew Brees is now dealing with a partially torn planter facsia having had shoulder problems early in the year, and he has been the reason the offence has worked when it has done so this could be a rough end to the season for the fans in New Orleans.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been maddeningly inconsistent this year, showing good progress on offence, but not quite being able to get results consistently. They have possibly done enough to keep head coach Gus Bradley in a job for another year, but the defence needs to improve if they are truly going to compete for the division. However, they have a good young nucleus on offence with a pair of receivers and a tight end that can compete with most teams, and if Black Bortles can reduce the mistakes further then they could be a real handful.

For this game, with Drew Brees as an injury worry and given the Saints’ passing defence, I will very happily take the points and hope the Jaguars don’t trip me up again.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars

Packers @ Cardinals (-4.5)

The Cardinals took a big blow with the loss of Tyrann Mathieu last week, but head coach Bruce Arians kept his team in contention last year despite losing two starting quarterbacks to injury so I trust that he will find a way. The Cardinals aggressive offence and defence has seen them win the AFC West, and they will be looking to make a deep run into the playoffs.

The Packers have had a difficult year, with struggles at times on both sides of the ball, but they have still made it to a 10-4 record that most teams would love to have. However, whilst the return of Mike McCarthy to play calling duties has produced wins in recent weeks, I am not convinced that it has solved everything and certainly the passing game is not functioning how we have come to expect from Aaron Rodgers.

The points make me pause slightly, but I think Arizona are the better team, and whilst there is a lot of talk that there will be a large number of Packer fans in attendance, I think that the Cardinals will win this one and cover these points.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals

Rams @ Seahawks (-13.5)

The Seahawks had a turbulent start to the season, but as has often been the case in recent years, come to the business end of the season the team starts to come good. The defence might have taken a slight step back when compared to their recent greatness, but Russell Wilson has started the transformation to a pocket passer and has really taken ownership of the offence since he lost tight end Jimmy Graham to injury.

The Rams have also had another turbulent season, but theirs seems to be ending in the usual nearly but not quite season. The defence hasn’t quite lived up to where they could be despite defensive tackle Aaron Donald having a monster season, but the real problem has been on offence. For much of the season they have had no real passing game to speak of, allowing teams to focus on stopping Todd Gurley once he was brought into the starting line-up. However, they do seem to have improved since the firing of their offensive coordinator two weeks ago, and whilst I don’t expect them to win this game, I do wonder if they can keep this game close than the points suggest.

I am not confident in this pick, but I will back the Rams to cover in divisional game.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams

Gaints @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Vikings continue their progress under Mike Zimmer, with a tough defence and an offence that does enough for them to win. Whilst quarterback Teddy Bridgwater might not throw the prettiest ball you have ever seen, he seems to be progressing and has thrown for over three hundred and fifty yards for the last two games.

The Giants have been in contention for the NFC East for most of the year, but this has mainly been on the back of Eli Manning throwing to Odell Beckham. However, the talented young star lost control last week and won’t be playing this week after trying to knock Josh Norman out of the game. This could be the last season for Tom Coughlin despite winning two Super Bowls as he is the oldest head coach in the league and the Giants have not been consistent or good enough this season. In fairness, this team doesn’t have a lot of talent, and has particularly struggled on defence this year, so I will be curious to see what direction they take in the offseason.

This is a lot of points for the Vikings to cover, but under the circumstances I think they have enough to do it against a Giants team who don’t’ really have anything to play for any more.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings

Bengals @ Broncos (-3.5)

The Broncos have slipped in recent weeks. The defence was on another level earlier in the season, but needed to do better against the Steelers last week to get a win. That said, with turmoil at quarterback, and a running game that has been inconsistent, some might argue that they have done well to amass the record they have. It has been something of a transition year for the Broncos with a new coaching staff and offensive philosophy, but they look like they have found a serviceable replacement for Manning and I would expect them to resign Osweiler at the end of the season. They will be looking to hold onto a division lead and push on into the playoffs, but it is still possible for them to drop out of the playoffs altogether so welcoming a Bengals team missing their starting quarterback to Denver might be something of a relief.

The Bengals’ season has gone so well for much of the year, but the injury to Andy Dalton has really hampered their push for playoff success. The Bengals managed to get the win against the 49ers with a steady offensive performance, but it did not look easy and so it is hard to tell how they will go against an impressive Broncos defence. That said, the defence continues to play well despite the injuries in the secondary, and they have a chance to set a record for fewest points allowed in a sixteen game season. The aim for this season was always a playoff win, and a bye would give Andy Dalton an improved chance of being healthy and playing, but is hard to know if the Bengals will finally break the drought in their fifth straight try under Marvin Lewis given the circumstances.

I am always worried about the Bengals, which given their history is perhaps not surprising, but I am finding it hard to predict this game as we just don’t know what AJ McCarron is going to do. I’m going to reluctantly back the Broncos to cover, and I will be more than happy if my pessimism is proved to be ill-founded, but I suspect it isn’t.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos

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The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 10

24 Thursday Dec 2015

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It’s our Christmas Special, so while you’re waiting for the jolly fat man to come down your chimney, listen to another one chatting with Gee about American Football! Including a discussion on how players must feel having to play over Christmas, a review of week 15, and our picks for week 16’s schedule.

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 10

Odell Beckham and Josh Norman on Coaching Tape, plus the Early Week 16 Picks

24 Thursday Dec 2015

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It was always my intention to look at the coaching tape of the matchup between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman as it was one of the most enticing prospects of the year coming into week fifteen. We were expecting to see a competition between two of the young stars of the NFL, with Beckham making breathtaking catches all through his short career and Norman being talking about as a candidate for defensive player of the year. I am going to focus on what I saw on tape, rather than go fully into all of the mess that has so dominated the post game coverage, but with Norman fined and Beckham suspended I cannot just ignore what went on after the whistle and sometimes during the play.

The first thing for me to say is that I can’t know what was said before or during the game, the amount of accusations thrown around after the game seems to be an attempt to distract from a spectacle that made neither player look good. However, there is plenty of blame to go around as there were plenty of signs that Beckham was not playing under control and neither team leaders nor coaches were able to bring him back from the edge. It is understandable that in such a physical game as football that players have to play with a fire, but there has to be a line that you don’t cross and Beckham hurt his team with a number of penalties. It is also disappointing that in 2015 we are still dealing with the questioning of a player’s manhood and the throwing around of homophobic slurs as accepted ways of trying to get into the opposition’s head. There is not the same organised chanting at football games in the States as there is over here in terms of songs and a terrace willing to say anything to put off the opposition, but the culture of masculinity is very similar and it is something that should be dismantled in a systematic way. Without going back and watching the game as broadcast it is hard for me to comment on what was going on between plays, but this was not what the NFL was hoping the matchup would look like going into the game.

Anyway, moving on to the game film, this game didn’t look to me quite as eventful as the highlights and the coverage has made it appear. I will be asking Dan about the game on the next podcast as I know he is intending to watch it, but in terms of what I could see on tape there were more snaps where Norman and Beckham lined up and not a lot happened than there were problems. The Giants move Beckham round the formation and bring him in motion to try to get him open. Meanwhile the Panthers played a mixture of zone and man, with Norman covering Beckham at times and others he was on the opposite sides of the field as both players lined up on either side of the formation.

We are used to seeing the spectacular catches and the impressive numbers for Odell Beckham, but he only had six catches in this game and a lot of the yards he did gain were wiped out by penalties he gave away. He also had a couple of drops, but what was striking on tape was his ability to get open. He is both quick and sudden, which enables him to often get open whether he is finding a way through zone coverage or in a one on one matchup. The touchdown he caught at the end of the game was from a lovely double move, that allowed him to get behind Norman to make the catch, and that wasn’t the only time he got behind Norman. There was a lovely deep post pattern that he ran in the third quarter creating a deep play opportunity, but Eli Manning couldn’t quite get the ball to him. The thing I will say about Beckham’s temperament in this game was that it was not just Norman that Beckham was petulant with, he ran into several safeties and other corners as the coverage rotated. I was also getting frustrated by his blocking in the running game as several times he bumped with a shoulder rather than truly engaging as a blocker. I don’t know how he is coached so it may be that this is what the team want him to do, but later in the game there was a snap where he engaged and turned his corner on a run play so he can do it. The egregious play to me was the running play where he went past Norman who did take a swipe at him, but Beckham came back down the field and clearly tried to take Norman out with a helmet to helmet hit. With the emphasis on player safety it was an outrageously dangerous play and you could easily argue that he should have been ejected from the game for that alone. It was hard to always see what was going on between snaps, but there was at least one play where part of an officiating crew put themselves between Beckham and Norman after the whistle had blown.

Focussing on Josh Norman, the coverage of him this season has been very positive, but looking at his play I would not say that he is quite the man on man lockdown corner that some would have you believe. That is not to say that he isn’t playing well as he really is, but the Panthers play a fair amount of zone but it looks different to the three deep zone with almost man corner play that you see if you were to watch Richard Sherman in Seattle. However, Norman is similar to Sherman in that he moves well and has the length to bother receivers and cause disruption. This is however, a great defence at all levels and on the all twenty-two you could see receivers passed smoothly between corners, safeties, and linebackers, as the receiver ran their route through the defence’s zones. Norman was clearly taking his chances to be physical where he could, and was called for his own unnecessary roughness penalties apart from the retaliation for the helmet to helmet hit. It was clear that he was niggling at Beckham for chunks of the game, and there was one play were he clearly just went for the head area of Beckham.

With one player suspended and another fined, neither has created a good look for the NFL. More worryingly for Beckham is that he clearly let things get to him and so he will see a lot more of this needling tactic as he is too good a receiver to cover conventionally, and has revealed a potential weakness that the rest of the league will see if they can exploit. Only time will tell if this will be a problem, but in what is one of the most team orientated of sports, Beckham will have to learn integrate his phenomenal talents into the team ethic if he wants to win games. As for Josh Norman, he will be watched closely, and let’s hope he can find the balance between being competitive and detrimental to his team.

And now onto the first picks of week sixteen that are immediately around Christmas day, with me managing to eek out another game on Dan last week.

Gee:    Week 15   11-5                       Overall   119-105
Dan:    Week 15   10-6                       Overall   110-114

Chargers @ Raiders (-5.5)

The Raiders have definitely made progress this season, but they are still making the mistakes of a young team. They lost to the Green Bay Packers last week, and still have plenty of areas that they need to develop, but in 2014 they drafted Khalil Mack and Derek Carr, then followed it up this year with Amari Cooper, so there is hope for a franchise that sat in the doldrums for too long that they can continue to build and develop. This is another team that could be on the move, although I’m not sure any team has the votes they require to get a move approved by the other owners, but given the games last week I expect this to be an emotional occasion in Oakland.

The Chargers got the win that so many players wanted in what was possibly the last game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. However, there is so much in flux for this team with it being up in the air where they will play next season, and likely who will coach them. They have been beset by injuries on the line, but they had problems with this last year as well, and they have a closing window given that as good as Philip Rivers has been, he is thirty-four.

In this game I think that the Chargers come back to Earth as they are not a good team, and with the Raiders at home for possibly the last time and them definitely heading in the right direction I think they will cover these points. It might also be another big day for Khalil Mack given the problems in pass protection that the Chargers have had all season.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Washington @ Eagles (-2.5)

There was a power struggle in the offseason at the Eagles, which Chip Kelly won, but I am not sure how much the total control of personnel has been of benefit. Initially I could see a plan in what he was doing, trusting his scheme on offence and focus his efforts on getting players for their defence, but the plan seemed to be ignored for some of his moves. However, a lot of talent has been shipped out over the last couple of seasons and it will be telling if he retains control over personnel and is given time to continue with his plan, or if some power is taken back or worse still if he is fired. On the field it has been a real mix with some good performances but nothing for them to really hang their hat on. The offence started of struggling, before they found a way to run the ball, but whilst high priced free agent DeMarco Murray might lead the team in rushing, he seems to have slipped down the pecking order and does not seem to fit the system. It appears that Sam Bradford is becoming more comfortable in the offence, but this is not the offence people were expecting to see coming into the year. More worrying is that the defence, which for much of the year looked like the stronger unit, has struggled in recent weeks and has given up forty points or more in three of the last five games.

This week the Eagles welcome a Washington team to Philadelphia who are currently a game clear at the top of the NFC East and who could clinch a playoff birth with a win in this game. It was not the most auspicious of starts for Jay Gruden in Washington, but you have to admire the way he stuck to his guns regarding the Robert Griffin situation and it would appear the starting quarterback question has been solved for now. The other thing that seems to have helped was the appointment of Scott McCloughan as GM, with his focus on building through the draft looking like it has been of benefit already, and I will be curious to see how they continue in the offseason. On the field the team has not excelled on offence or defence, although their special teams are ranked sixth in the league by DVOA. However, Kirk Cousins has managed to find a balance between willingness to make aggressive throws and protecting the ball. The team have played better in Washington than on the road, which makes me nervous about picking this game, but I do not trust the Eagles and if I am getting two and a half points then I am going to take them.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2015

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It was a slightly odd Thursday night game given that if you were to look at the statistics on their own without the score, you would think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually won the game, but in the end the Rams ran out convincing winners in what could be their last game in St Louis.

The Rams have now won two games straight and part of that turn around seems to be the change in offensive coordinator. Whilst the Buccaneers did an effective job of bottling up Todd Gurley, the Rams came with game plan that made the most of Tavon Austin’s ability with the ball in his hands, and an efficient passing game that gained two hundred and thirty-four yards from fourteen receptions out of seventeen attempts. I am not going to say that Case Keenum is an amazing quarterback, but this did look like a functional NFL offence, which it has not done for a lot of the season, and I will be as curious to see what this team does in the offseason with the construction of the roster as where the franchise will actually play its games.

The Buccaneers defence played well in the run game in terms of restricting Todd Gurley, which is not a surprise given that they were ranked fifth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game. However, they were not that sure in their tackling, and had problems dealing with the shifty Austin. No one really stood out, although Gerard McCoy flashed, but he has not hit the lofty heights that we have come to expect given his performance in previous seasons. They have however, begun to look like they can make Lovie Smith’s Tampa Two defence effective, which seemed to be a real question earlier this season and they will be hoping to build on that next year.

The Buccaneers offence in contrast, had some good performances, but the yardage gained hides the fact that they got very little going in the first half, gave the ball away twice and could have lost the ball again if they had not recovered one of their fumbles. It was odd in that to start the game they tried to rely on their run game as they have much for the season, but whilst Doug Martin ran the ball effectively, Jameis Winston kept missing his receivers with throws that were too high. In fact Winston had this problem crop up through much of the game, but it was particularly prevalent in the early part of the game and led to difficulties maintaining drives. In the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter the Buccaneers were able to get things going, and Winston was able to make some big plays with his arm, particularly to receiver Mike Evans who had an impressing one hundred and fifty-seven yard game from nine receptions, although he was targeted seventeen times. The one interception Winston did have was a bad read as he failed to take account of a dropping corner, but he has been much better in his first season than many feared and if they can get him some more options and improve his offensive line then the Buccaneers definitely have a quarterback for the foreseeable future.

There is no doubting the talent on the Rams defence, but it has rarely been able to get everyone playing well at the same time. The particularly impressive player for them in this game was Aaron Donald, who may not have had any sacks, but did get two tackles for a loss as well as three quarterback hits whilst causing all kinds of problems for the Buccaneers offensive line. It should not be possible for a defensive tackle as large as Donald to move as quickly as he does, but he also possesses the strength to shed blockers to make tackles in the run game, and in his second year is making a case to be included in the conversation with the other defensive greats.

In the end the Rams ran out comfortable winners in this one, but I am not sure it will be enough to save Jeff Fisher his job, whilst the improvement the Buccaneers have made this season should mean that Lovie Smith gets another year to continue the rebuilding job in Tamp Bay

I want to write a little about the coaching tape I watched this week before moving onto our picks for week fifteen. I was looking at the way that Cardinals use safeties Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu, which is pretty much how I outlined last week, but it is still impressive to see on tape.

For Bucannon, although listed as a safety he really does play as one of their linebackers, using his movement skills to avoid blocks and make plays. Not only did he force a fumble and recover it, but he was able to tackle Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and was second in tackles only to Tyrann Mathieu.

If Bucannon is exceptional because of the position he is playing given his size, then Tyrann Mathieu demonstrates an amazing flexibility in the way he is used around the Cardinals defence. He basically lines up as either a safety or slot corner, and is usually around the line of scrimmage, but from there he can exploit his athleticism either rushing towards the play, or drop into coverage. In the Cardinals blitz heavy scheme he frequently rushes from the slot corner position or from the line, and was able to get pressure on the QB multiple times. The pass play I mentioned in last week’s write up where Mathieu batted down a ball behind the line of scrimmage was actually coming off such a slot corner blitz, and given that Teddy Bridgewater was looking left as the ball was snapped, I would guess hat Mathieu either keyed off that or adjusted his blitz angle in case the ball came out early, and it was this that allowed him get a hand to the ball.

Overall what I appreciated about the Cardinals defensive scheme was that they have collected a number of good athletes and are putting them in a position to make the most of their physical gifts whilst giving themselves flexibility in an era where offences are becoming increasingly multiple and aggressive in the pass game. I don’t know if there are going to be other teams that copy them, but the principle of having that much coverage ability combined with aggressive pressure is one we may well see copied, if perhaps with different types of personnel.

Finally we go on to the rest of our week fifteen picks, with Dan and I both going 1-1 so far.

Falcons @ Jagaurs (-3.5)

The points scare me because despite the improvement of the Jaguars this season, they are still not reliable week to week, but they are coming off a win where they scored fifty points whilst the Falcons are on a horrendous run of losses. I don’t see the Falcons ending that run on the road in Jacksonville this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Bills @ Washington (+0.5)

It feels like I have been wrong about this Washington season all year, but with the Bills falling from playoff contention thanks to last week’s loss and their continued ill discipline which seems to be a feature of Rex Ryan’s teams, I think that Washington will win this game as they try to stay in the NFC East race. The worry is that Washington has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but they have been better at home and with something to play for I will take the half point that doesn’t really mean anything.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Chicago Bears have been better than most thought they would be this season, but the Vikings put up a very credible performance against a very good Cardinals team in Arizona and will hopefully be healthier after the extra rest. Their defence has been good all year and was solid last week despite missing some of its best players, and they will want to get their season back on track in this divisional game and I think they will. They might not cover the points, but I think the Vikings are the better team so that’s the way I am going.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Titans @ Patriots (-14.5)

The points make me pause, but the Titans are on the road and do not have the players around rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota to compete with the Patriots given the return of Rob Gronkowski and what he means to their offence. The Titans only scored one touchdown against the Jets last week, and that was a trick play, so I don’t see them doing much in their second game on the road in a row, so whilst I should pick the Titans because of the points, I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The AFC South is in such a state that two teams with 6-7 records are playing for the division lead, with both of them starting backup quarterbacks. There is very little to hang your hat on in this game, but the Texans at least have JJ Watt and a defence that has been coming on in the second half of the season even if they did struggle against the Patriots last week, so that’s what I will put my trust in for this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chiefs @ Ravens (+7.5)

The Chiefs are on one of the hottest streaks in the NFL at the moment, which is a testament to the job head coach Andy Reid did in keeping this team together through their 1-5 start that easily could have wrecked their season. The Ravens have been specialising in close games for much of the season, even if they had been losing most of them, but the injuries finally passed a point where they could compete and lost badly last week. I think that the Chiefs offence will be better this week for not playing in horrendous conditions, and will cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Panthers @ Giants (+5.5)

This game has one of the matchups of the year with Panther’s corner Josh Norman likely going up against Odell Beckham. There is a lot of buzz about how the Giants love playing these kinds of games and upsetting good teams, but this Giants team is not like the one that beat the Patriots in two Super Bowls. Those teams may have come good at the end of the year, but they also had a fearsome pass rush and more to hang their hat on than Eli Manning getting hot. Yes the Manning to Beckham connection is effective, but this week they go up against one of the best defences in the league, and whilst the injuries the Panthers suffered last week worry me, I don’t see the Giants really being able to compete. This probably means the Giants will win as it’s hard to predict that the Panthers really will go undefeated, but I’m not prepared to pick against them this week despite needing them to win by six points on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Browns @ Seahawks (-14.5)

I feel like I am picking a lot of sides giving away a lot of points this week, and they surely can’t all come in, but despite the Browns getting a win last week, I don’t see them repeating the trick as they travel from Cleveland to Seattle. The Seahawks defence is still very good, and with their offence now finding an effective passing game I’m not even worried about the loss of rookie running back Thomas Rawls in this one. I’m backing the Seahawks to run out convincing winners at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Raiders (+3.5)

I think I am changing my mind on this one in that on the podcast I said I was not convinced by the Packers, having had false dawns before this season in terms of things turning consistently round on offence, and the Raiders have played well for large parts of the season even if they do make young team mistakes. However, with Mike McCarthy taking back play calling duties last week, and a faith that they will not allow Khalil Mack to get five sacks like the Broncos did last week, I think the Packers may well cover this one even if the half point does make me nervous.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ 49ers (+4.5)

The 49ers defence seems to play better at home that than they do on the road, but they just lost to the Cleveland Brown and their rush defence is near the bottom of the league. I know what Hue Jackson is saying about the game plan this week, and to some extent I believe him as I didn’t think it was a bad display by AJ McCarron against the Steelers last week, but a young quarterback’s best friend is the run game, which fits the tactical situation of this game and so I think the Bengals will run on the 49ers a lot. It may well be a close game, but I am choosing to take a page out of Dan’s giant book of optimism and back my team to cover this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

This line is tricky for me in that whilst the Broncos offence stuttered last week, they still have a really good defence. The Steelers have a great set of receivers, and this should be a really good game, but the Broncos could well slow the Steelers down. I think they can for a while, but this Steelers team are just so good at the moment, and whilst I think I would pick differently if this game was in Denver, I am backing the Steelers in Pittsburgh to win and maintain the pressure on the Bengals because that’s what happens in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dolphins @ Chargers (-1.5)

There have been comments coming out of the Chargers locker room that they are aware this could be the team’s last game in San Diego and they are desperate for a win. I think the Dolphins might be close to being a good team than some would have you believe, but they have not been good this season. However, I am not sure the Chargers should be favourites against many given how their season has been, and there has been very little home field advantage for them this season so I will join Dan back on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Cardinals @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Cardinals continue to get wins with a good defence and explosive offence, whilst the Eagles have been uneven all season and I simply don’t trust them. So even thought the Cardinals are on the road in Philadelphia, I am backing them to cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Lions @ Saints (-2.5)

The Lions lost for a second week in the row, and it seems that being eliminated from the playoffs has stifled their little recovery. They are still playing better than they were, but then again so are the Saints. Their defence was not as bad last week as it has been all season, and they ran out convincing winners against the Buccaneers. This leaves me in something of a quandary, particularly as the Buccaneers were pretty convincingly beaten by the Rams on Thursday, but I am going for the team with the better record who are playing at home whilst keeping my fingers crossed.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

19 Saturday Dec 2015

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It is the last weekend before Christmas, we survived the last bits of shopping, I still have lots to write, and the NFL are trying to trick me with a Saturday game, but here’s Dan and mine’s pick whilst I write the rest of the usual weekend blogs.

Jets @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Cowboys are somehow technically still capable of winning the division with a 4-9 record, but I think we can finally dismiss them as they are two games back from everyone else in the division with three games left. I don’t think they have enough to win this game against a Jets team who are one of three teams vying for a wildcard place in the AFC with an 8-5 record. The Jets offence continues to play well, whilst the defence should have more than enough to stifle the struggling Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 9

19 Saturday Dec 2015

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Gee may have taken a serious lead in the Pick ’em competition, but there’s still plenty to talk about this week – LeSean McCoy sending Chip Kelly to voicemail, Coach Pagano’s chances of keeping his job in Indianapolis, and looking at some of the bigger games of week 14… and Gee’s microphone works again!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 9

F is for Fanatic, or fan.

17 Thursday Dec 2015

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This week’s column is brought to you by the letter f, which for the purposes of the blog will stand for fanatic, or fan, rather than what I was saying on Sunday. It was a rough day for Bengals fans with the excellent season crumbling before our eyes, and inevitably it had to be against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers seemed to maintain their composure that bit more than the Bengals, but it was a cruel blow to lose Andy Dalton to a thumb fracture. I don’t want to write a woe is me piece, or spill bile directed at the Steelers, but I wanted to take a moment with the end of the regular season looming to take a look at the experience of being a fan.

You may well have heard people make reference to fan being a contraction of fanatic, and whether this is a true derivation or a nice line, there is no question that there are a huge number of people invested in various sports teams across the world, and some of them can be very committed. I would tend to think of myself as informed rather than maniacal, but there’s no question that I was excessively upset with the situation on Sunday. In fact I was probably as upset as I was with the dispiriting playoff loss to the Colts last season. I bounced back fairly quickly from that game as there were so many injuries to the offence’s skill players that I didn’t buy into the Andy Dalton narrative about not being able to win a playoff game. However, the plain fact of the matter is that he hasn’t yet, and one of the wonderful things about this season was that through play alone Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton were changing that story, and I felt that it stood a very good chance of being put to bed this season. There’s still a slight chance that it might, but I wouldn’t back it to happen, although there’s a chance that if Lewis and Hue Jackson can work with AJ McCarron that a playoff win can be found and the leagues longest playoff win drought will finally come to an end.

The key thing for this column though is that here I am on a different continent, in a world beset by problems more serious than a team’s ability to beat another at a contest of strength, skill, and speed, yet still there was a significant period of time where what I was upset about the bad fortune that had befallen a group of people I have never met dressed in orange and black. And yet I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing. Yes I would agree that a lot of professional sports people, particularly the men, are overpaid when compared to the truly important work that people put in for society, but that doesn’t mean I want to get rid of professional sports. These issues speak to the nature of markets and their interaction with society rather than a problem with sport. I won’t give you a complete treatise on the faults of free market capitalism, or pretend that I have a solution, but I do want to take a moment to examine the fan experience, sports, and why if we can maintain a sense of proportion that sport is important.

I have written before about the importance in coaching, and I don’t think it is a coincidence that sport coaches are often called in to give talks on management or write books on how to build successful teams. However, you average fan may not be reading books on coaching techniques, incremental improvements, or developing a coherent philosophy for success. However, I strongly believe that we all only have so much time that we can spend in focussed work. This is perhaps even more the case if you work in a high pressure situation, or for long hours. If we look back at human history, we see the need to escape the every day woven through the human experience. As a writer, a musician, and so technically an artist, I know how important it is to connect with people’s everyday experience, but also to take them out of themselves. I hate criticisms of escapism as very few people can be completely serious all of the time, and I’m not sure how much time you would want to spend with those who are. The ability to stretch your imagination, whether you are dreaming of being a Jedi Knight, scoring the goal that take Leicester City to the top of the league, or playing for your home town Bengals, is important. The ability to step outside of yourself, to escape the drudgery of your day, to take a well earned break, is really useful and I would definitely say life enhancing.

Very few people are given the physical talent and the opportunity to play professional sports, let alone pull off a move to their childhood team like AJ Hawk managed this offseason when he joined the Bengals. However, playing sports at any level is a useful way of keeping active, and if professional sports can inspire children to play a sport, and if as a society we can make that a habit so we have more adults exercising regularly, then we are already on the way to a healthier society.

The benefits of sport are not just physical though. I spend a large amount of time writing about the NFL because I enjoy, but it is also a type of practice. I’m never too sure how much faith I put in the idea of the 10 000 hour rule, but you don’t get better at anything without practice. I don’t just write about sports, in fact the first thing I started writing is fiction and over the course of the year that is what I spend the majority of my time writing, but this blog is a kind of cross training. Just as you hear of NFL players training in different sports in the offseason, or using martial arts training to help them play football, this blog helps me work on the discipline and craft required for writing. This however is not the only non-physical benefit of sport.

A team can help community in a city, or even further afield as sports become increasingly global, but the mental benefit is more than bringing a group of people together, or making you happy when a team wins. Going back to children’s participation in sport, this is a good place for a child to learn what it means to be part of a team, and how to work hard at something, and possibly most importantly, dealing with failure. Why is dealing with failure important? Because in a society that seems to be increasingly trying to protect children from failure, that praises success, we very seldom seem to focus on the steps that it takes to become successful.

In Seatle Seahawks’ head coach Pete Caroll’s book, Win Forever – Live,Work, and Play Like a Champion, Caroll outlines the steps and journey that took him to defining his coaching philosophy that he calls Win Forever. This is the philosophy he uses to approach coaching a football team based around his belief in competition, and how he thinks a football team should function, but also how he approaches life in general. I have been thinking about this as at the end of the book he also challenges the reader to come up with their own plan, which believe it or not I have been thinking about off and on since the spring. I wouldn’t say it’s coherent yet, and I haven’t got the definition down to twenty five worse or less, but I have the name. Process over outcome, which I grant you is not as snappy as Win Forever, but here’s the point – I don’t think you can always win. I don’t think you even should. Success does not come about through a series of success built on success, which in fairness is not what Pete Caroll is trying to say, success is the achievement of a goal through continuing a process in the face of adversity. To succeed at anything, first you have to fail. I’m in danger of sounding like an internet meme, but in a world of random probability it is impossible to absolutely guarantee an outcome for anything other than the most basic of tasks. However, by focussing on controlling the process, learning from your mistakes, and by continually trying to improve, you can maximise your potential for success, and that’s all anybody can do. I base this on my experience of playing drums for over twenty years and easily clocking 10 000 practice hours, and over the last twenty years or so I have clocked up a fair number of hours writing. However, not everyone has those interests, and another way to get there is sport. I don’t know how many hours I have spent running, but I am still learning and whilst I will never get close to international competition, I am still inspired by Paula Radcliffe, Haile Gebrselassie, Mo Farrah, and David Rudisha. I also love lifting weights, and through spending many years fighting gravity with a barbell I have learned about discipline, dealing with adversity, and persistence.

I am not saying there are no problems in sport, in fact if you have been listening to the podcast you will have heard me point out huge failings in the way the NFL runs. I’m also not saying that being overly obsessed with your team isn’t a problem – obsession taken too far can definitely cause problems, but if obsession can be harnessed it can also lead to greatness. I may love writing, I may adore the arts, but I love sport as well, and being a fan is as much of my personality as anything else. I don’t mind if you don’t love the NFL, but don’t give up on sport, I am sure that if you look there’s something out there for you.

Moving away from my soap box, I’m also pretty damn competitive, so I won’t pretend that I’m not happy about having an eight game lead over Dan with three weeks to go of the regular season, but I’m not overconfident so let’s get to the Thursday night game and the first of our picks for week fifteen.

Gee:    Week 14   7-9             Overall   108-100
Dan:    Week 14   8-8             Overall   100-108

Buccaneers @ Rams (-0.5)

The Rams caught me of guard last week by playing well, but they have a history of winning games that make you think they are turning a corner, and then sinking straight back into the mire. The Buccaneers have definitely made progress this year, but were handled surprisingly easily last week by a Saints team that have not been good this season and who have had real problems all season on defence. The Rams defence is definitely better than the Saints and so I should have pause this weeks, but whilst I’m nervous, I simply do not trust the Rams in this situation.

Gee’s Pick:     Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:    Buccaneers

Week 13 Amateur Adventures in Film

13 Sunday Dec 2015

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Dan asked me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance for this week’s adventures in film to see what was going on in his eighty-six passing yards game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13.

The first thing to say is that Dan Campbell wasn’t kidding when he talked about committing to the run, with twenty-six rush attempts to nineteen passing attempts. Not only that, but because of the lack of consistency in the running game, Tannehill faced a lot of third and longs so it hardly surprising that the Dolphins only managed to gain four first downs in thirteen attempts on third down. In fact they didn’t manage to maintain any drives into the opponent’s red zone, with the only scoring play coming from a thirty-eight yard pass by Tannehill.

Looking at Tannehill’s play on passing downs, it was noticeable that they were limiting the things he had to do. He basically either threw play-action passes from under centre, or threw out of shotgun formations with a slightly skippy gather phase before throwing. It was also noticeable that he was either throwing short passes or long bombs with very little in the intermediate range. Even when he did connect on a six yard pass to Jarvis Landry on a hitch pattern, he missed a very similar throw to Dion Sims on the next down to bring the Dolphins punting unit out once again. The one really good play he had was the long touchdown when he came of the play-action fake and was able to gather, look left across the field to send the single high safety left, then came back to DeVante Parker running deep on the right to complete the touchdown pass. The ball was thrown up high for the six foot three Parker to go get, and he was able to high point the ball and hold onto it as he fell into the end zone. There were short passes that worked as well, but it is hard to say much more as there isn’t that much on tape in this game.

It’s hard to comment on his footwork in the drop as he really didn’t do any traditional three, five, or seven step drops. His arm doesn’t exactly leap of the screen either, which is not necessarily the end of the world as arm strength is one of the most overrated qualities of NFL quarterbacks as they need enough on the ball to get there, but it is really the mental aspects of the game that truly let a quarterback succeed or not. The Dolphins don’t appear to be asking him to do too much in terms of manipulating the game, but equally I only saw him take off on a read-option play once, which went for eleven yards despite Tannehill running the ball being a feature of last year’s improvements. He also suffered a few drops, particularly on the opening play of the second drive when Lamar Miller somehow failed to gather in a perfectly fine pass to him as he ran out of the backfield. You know you are in for a long day when a simple pass designed to get you a completion fails.

In the end, it’s hard to get too much of a read on a quarterback when so much in the offence is going wrong. Tannehill will be going into another offseason of upheaval, but along with what you assume will be a new coaching staff, he’ll be hoping that the front office strengthens his offensive line, and finally gives him  bit of stability so he has a fair short of developing. The jury is still out, and with the way the Dolphins are run, it could be difficult for Tannehill to succeed long term in the NFL.

Vikings at Cardinals, and Week 14 Picks

13 Sunday Dec 2015

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It was another great Thursday night game this week, which saw the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Arizona Cardinals, and they were much more effective than I was expecting despite the injuries in their defence, but that’s not where I will start.

The Cardinals began the game moving the ball well, but couldn’t finish their first drive and had to settle for a field goal. The Vikings in contrast put together a highly effective first drive, with Adrian Peterson looking like he was going to dominate the game as he carved up the Cardinals defence, and made some amazing jump cuts to get his touchdown. However, the Cardinals adjusted and in later drives limited him effectively as they made several tackles for losses. Not only that, but one of the Vikings three fumbles was caused when Josh Mauro cam bursting through the line and tackled Peterson as he attempted to make the pass to a receiver on a reverse play. So if the Vikings didn’t dominate on the ground, how did they stay in the game? The answer is that they came into this game with a plan for dealing with the Cardinals’ pressure schemes in the pass game and were able to throw the ball successfully with Teddy Bridgewater completing twenty-five of thirty-six attempts to eleven different receivers for three hundred and thirty-five yards and a touchdown. A lot of this was on little dump offs and screen passes to counter the pass rush and so whilst no one player dominated, the Vikings were effective moving the ball. The timing of a lot Bridgewater’s throws was good, which they have to be as his balls do seem to hang in the air and I imagine he would not be a relaxing quarterback to watch week in and week out if the Vikings are your team.

The Cardinals were equally as good moving the ball on offence, but could have won this game more easily if they were more effective closer to the goal line. They went 0-2 in the red zone, kicking three field goals and scoring two long passing touchdowns. The aggressive vertical passing game is the defining feature of the Cardinals offence under Bruce Arians, and in Carson Palmer he really has the quarterback to execute it. Not only that, but Arians really has this team playing for each other and nowhere was this more visible on the field than the Cardinal’s second touchdown when three Vikings players bit on an inside route leaving both Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald open. Carson Palmer said after the game he saw that they were both open and threw the ball between them and hoped, although on the coaching tape Floyd is in front of Fitzgerald so it does look like Floyd was the intended target, but the impressive thing for me was Fitzgerald’s block on safety Anthony Harris that opened the way for Floyd to finish a forty-two yard touchdown pass. The crazy thing is that this was not even the longest passing play of the day with John Brown demonstrating his flat out speed as he took a pass to the end zone to complete a sixty-five yard touchdown pass. It should be noted that whilst the vertical passing game is the defining feature, the Cardinals do not ignore the run game, with rookie David Johnson gaining ninety-two yards from nineteen carries, keeping the Vikings defence honest.

So we have seen how effective both offences were, but this was not a high scoring game and as such we shouldn’t overlook the defences. The Vikings defence had some bad moments like the miscommunication on the second touchdown play that had three defenders follow one receiver’s inside route, but they were generating consistent pressure in the passing game and if they only sacked Palmer twice and hit him a further six times, this looked like it was a function of how quickly Palmer was getting rid of the ball rather than impressive offensive line play. They also managed to bat away six passes, and whilst by no means dominant, they absolutely gave the Vikings a chance to win on the road despite on a short week whilst carrying a number of injuries.

Part of this was due to the boom or bust nature of the Cardinals’ aggressive blitzing on defence, which only gained the Cardinals one more sack and one less quarterback hit. The problem with that is the extra sack was Dwight Freeney pulling off one of his trademark spin moves and getting to Teddy Bridgewater on the last play of the game. However, what I was impressed with was the play of the two defenders I am intending to watch on coaching tape next week in Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu. They led the team in tackles, with Mathieu getting ten solo and Bucannon seven. Not only that but they both had tackles for a loss, Mathieu batted a quick out pass in a way I’ve not seen before, somehow guessing right immediately and getting a hand to the ball as it was in the air but still behind the line of scrimmage, whilst Bucannon forced one of the Vikings three fumbles and recovered the ball. I wonder if the Vikings would have had the same success late in the game if the Cardinals had kept a few more players in coverage, but that doesn’t seem to be in Arians and his coaching staff’s nature and it certainly makes the Cardinals a highly entertaining team to watch.

This was a great game, and I thought the Vikings had a very credible outing in a game I was expecting to be very one sided. A lot of the post game focus is on the final play call, with some arguing the Vikings should have just kicked the field goal, and others saying that with a good quarterback you try to make the field goal easier and it was just a bad play by Bridgewater. I think this is one of those situations where whatever play you call, if it goes wrong the coach will be criticised, but whilst the Vikings will need to start getting some wins to stay in the playoff hunt, only the Seahawks are able to join them and the Packers on eight wins this week so they stand a very good chance of joining the Carolina Panthers and the Cardinals in the playoffs. The Cardinals now have the division sewn up, but could do with working on their red zone efficiency if they want to be truly terrifying, but no one will want to face this team in the post season.

And now onto our picks for the rest of week fourteen.

Falcons @ Panthers (-7.5)

The Falcons are settling into an eight and eight season kind of a season, which is still an improvement on last year, it just came in a very lopsided way thanks to their impressive start, but they really need to get some pass rush to help get their defence sorted out in the offseason. They travel this week to Carolina to face the unbeaten Panthers who they have to play twice in the coming weeks. I’m not sure the Panthers will go unbeaten, but games against the Giants in week fifteen and the Buccaneers in week 17 look like more likely losses, and I think they will have too much for the Falcons in both Carolina and Atlanta. The points give me a little bit of pause, but in the end I can’t look past Cam Newton and the Panthers’ defence in this one.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Bills @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles may have beaten the Patriots last week, but they conceded a lot of late points to a team with very few options in the passing game and a patchwork line, whilst getting touchdowns from their defence and special teams. They are still not a team that you can trust, whilst the Bills seem to be doing it on offence rather than defence, but have an outside chance of making a wildcard place. In a straight pick the winner situation I am going for the road team, nervously…

Gee ‘s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Washington @ Bears (-3.5)

The Bears are coming off what they will likely see as a frustrating loss to the 49ers, and will have a point to prove against a Washington team that has not been good on the road. The difference in Washington’s performance on the roach and at home is quite startling, so I’m not going to back them to get their first road win in Chicago this week.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Bears
Dan’s Pick:     Washington

Steelers @ Bengals (-3.5)

This is game of the week, as it’s always a good contest between these two teams, but the Steelers offence is working so well at the moment and they are exactly the wrong team for the Bengals to be facing with the injuries mounting up in their secondary. I will be very happy to be proven wrong, but I simply don’t have as much faith as Dan in the Bengals this week.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Steelers
Dan’s Pick:     Bengals

49ers @ Browns (-1.5)

I am not sure why the Browns are getting points against anyone at the moment, particularly with Johnny Manziel starting at quarterback. The Browns have had an amazing stretch of failing to find a franchise quarterback, and this season is falling apart spectacularly giving them the opportunity to mess up a high pick again. The 49ers are by no means a good team, but given the amount of talent they lost and the division they play in, getting four wins is better than how things looked early in the season and I think they will add to their win total this week.

Gee ‘s Pick:    49ers
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Lions @ Rams (-0.5)

The Rams continue to slide, whilst the Lions have a defence that is now playing well and a system that is functioning better on offence. The Rams offence is so focussed on Gurly and has so many problems in the passing game that I don’t think they will win this one.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Lions

Titans @ Jets (-7.5)

The Jets keep going, and are truly in the hunt for the wildcard place, but whilst I expect them to beat the Titans, this number of points make me nervous given the Titans defence has played okay in stretches this season. Part of me wants to pick the Titans to cover in a loss, but in the end I can’t bring myself to make the pick.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Jets

Colts @ Jaguars (-1.5)

The Colts fell back to earth last week in the AFC’s own division that no one wants to win, losing to the Steelers badly and getting Hasselbeck injured in the process. The forty year old quarterback has practised all week, but the Colts are a team I don’t trust. The problem for me is that so are the Jaguars, who seem to play well enough to put up a good showing, but make too many mistakes to win regularly. This is another game where part of me wants to pick a team, but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I know the Jaguars are at home, but I’ve been bitten too many times to back them in this one, which is probably their cue to get the win.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Colts
Dan’s Pick:     Colts

Chargers @ Chiefs (-9.5)

The Chargers surprised me in week 12, but it was against the Jaguars and could get nothing going against the Broncos defence last week. I don’t expect them to have much luck against the Chiefs this week either, and whilst divisional games can be funny, I think the Chiefs will cover in a game they need to win to stay in the playoff hunt.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Chargers

Saints @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The New Orleans Saints offence seems to be hit and miss, but they’ve just lost running back Mark Ingram for the rest of the season, whilst the Buccaneers have really come on during the course of this season. This is usually the sign that things are going to go wrong for the Bucs, but I think they will win this one at home in Tampa Bay and so I’m going to back them. Sorry Bucs fans…

Gee ‘s Pick:    Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Ravens (+8.5)

The Seahawks are playing good football on offence, with Russell Wilson seemingly beginning the transition to a pocket quarterback, and Thomas Rawls continuing to run well. They absolutely hammered the Vikings last week with their defence pitching a shut out. This is a lot of points for the Ravens to be getting, particularly as they have specialised in close games all season, but Matt Schaub is a pick six throwing machine these days, and I think this is finally the game where the Ravens’ problems finally are reflected in the score. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they kept it close though…

Gee ‘s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:     Seahawks

Raiders @ Broncos (-7.5)

The Broncos keep rolling with great defence and just enough offence to win, but whilst I think they will be able to run on the Raiders and win, I do wonder if they are this much better given how effective Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have been in the passing game. I’m going for a Raiders cover.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Cowboys @ Packers (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys got a win last week, and somehow are still not out of the race in the NFC East despite only having four of them. This week they travel to face a Packers team that got a stunning last minute win last week, but are still not playing well on offence. They will have had some extra days to try to get healthy on the offensive line, but I’m not sure I feel comfortable backing them to win by this much over anybody at the moment. I could regret this as I still think the Packers will win, but I have a feeling the Cowboys keep it closer than this.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Patriots @ Texans (+3.5)

I was all set to pick the Texans in this one, and then Sir JJ of Watt broke his hand in training, and whilst he will be playing this weekend, I think this is one obstacle too many for the Texans. I don’t know if Rob Gronkowski will play, although he’s made the trip from New England to Houston, but it’s hard to see the Patriots losing three in a row for the first time in forever.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Gaints @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The New York Giants seem to be a team that wins or loses off the back of which Eli Manning is playing and Odell Beckham making spectacular catches. I’m not sure if this will be enough to beat the Dolphins in Miami, but given their recent run of form and the problems in the Dolphins secondary I suspect it might.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins