If week eight taught us anything, it is that trying to predict NFL results is a mug’s game. I fell another game behind Dan last week, and this week’s lines look horrible. There seem to be three kinds of losses that I have each week: there’s the out by half a point to a point that I can live with, the surprise result that no one saw coming, and the frustrating second guess or I should have seen that coming. See if you can see which teams handed me what kind of loss last week.

Last week by this point of the intro I had picked three games, I don’t have any picked right now…

Gee:      Week 8   7-8                       Overall   59-62
Dan:      Week 8   8-7                       Overall   63-58

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Sometimes when you are wrong, it’s good to be very wrong as it forces you to readjust. It appears that I was very wrong on the Saints last week, but I’m still undecided about them. They had taken care of the Bucs in Week Six, had a bye and got healthier, then only narrowly lost to the Lions. The problem is that they were leading the Lions game up until there was 01:54 left in the fourth quarter, when the Lions scored the last of their fourteen unanswered points to win the game. They had no such problems against the Packers, hanging with them in the first half and pulling away in the third quarter. The offence looked better with Drew Brees playing more like how we would expect, the rookie receiver Brandin Cooks picking up nearly one hundred yards, and Jimmy Graham beginning to look more like himself as he comes back from a shoulder problem. Meanwhile, the defence did enough, although Aaron Rodgers appeared limited by his hamstring problem and you can’t blame him for the way Eddie Lacy’s missed catch popped up for an interception. This team is also one that does not travel well so I don’t know what to make of them this week.

The Panthers lost an ugly game against the Seahawks. Cam Newton managed to throw an interception and lose a fumble, whilst trying to make something happen. The defence managed to look pretty good against a Seahawks unit that is top ten and leads the league in rush offence by DVOA. I have been confused by the Panthers all season, they have been up and down and I have struggled to make sense of who they are as a team. It was reasonable to expect a step back given their salary cap woes and the players they lost, but this means that I really don’t know what to expect of them in any given week. They don’t seem to be able to put together good performances on both sides of the ball at the same time. I really thought they were there for the taking against the Bengals.

I’m worried about the points given that the Saints don’t travel well, and I’m not convinced by either team, but I’m leaning towards the Saints as I feel like I have a better idea of who they can be if thing start to come together. This is a real shot in the dark, but here goes.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jaguars @ Bengals (-11.5)

The Bengals did enough to get their proper name back last week, although I think they were a little lucky to get the win given that I don’t think there was enough of push by Steve Smith to warrant his touchdown being called back. It will be interesting to see the offence once AJ Green gets back as Mohamed Sanu had another great game and the pair of them could really open the offence out again. The pass defence is very solid, although the rush defence is currently last in the league by DVOA. Still, I feel pretty confident coming into this week against the Jaguars at home. I’m just not sure I’m that confident.

Having got their first win in week seven, the Jaguars came back down with a bump against the Dolphins. Unfortunately Blake Bortles not only threw another interception, but one that was returned eighty-one yards for a touchdown. This team continues to hang in there as their defence is doing okay, but they just don’t have enough talent to do more than compete. That said, I don’t see this game being a blow out as I don’t think the Bengals are healthy enough so I’m worriedly backing the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Buccaneers @ Browns (-6.5)

The Buccaneers are not good, and with the fire sale before the trade deadline the new management are trying to say it’s the previous regime’s players. Either way, I don’t see them doing well in Cleveland. The problem is that the Browns are struggling as well, the loss of Alex Mack really seems to have upset the line (which should not be surprising, I’ve seen myself what damage losing your starting centre can do to a team), so whilst I think they will win, the line makes me nervy. In the end though, the Bucs are ranked dead last in overall DVOA, and by a fair margin, whilst the Browns are solidly mid-table so whilst it’s another anxious pick, I’m going for the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Cardinals @ Cowboys (-4.5)

I don’t think it’s time to panic yet, but back injuries make me nervous and we don’t know what is going to happen with Tony Romo yet. More surprising to me is that the given the injury situation with Romo, and that they lost to Washington last week, I can’t see why they are giving so many points to the Cardinals. It is pretty amazing that DeMarco Murray has already run for over one thousand yard, and now has eight straight one hundred yard games to start the season. However, the o-line that has been talked about by some as the best in the league this season, couldn’t protect the quarterback last week against Washington, yet this week go against one of the most blitz heavy defences in the league. It could a very tough time for whoever starts at quarterback this week.

Bruce Arians and his staff are doing a great job this season. Having lost so many of the starters from last year’s stellar defence, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Cardinals might struggle, but somehow they are still top ten. They are getting by on offence, although I thought that the observation about their likely unsustainable good play on third down in Aaron Schatz’s Football Outsiders DVOA column was interesting. Still, whilst they may regress at some point, they have enough play makers and seem to be playing well home and away. This is one of the few games that I’m beginning to feel comfortable with this week, which means you should all back the Cowboys to bounce back, but I’m sticking with the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Jets @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Oh dear Geno. A stat line of two completions in eight attempts for five yards and three interceptions is something the like of which we will not see for quite some time. I wrote that I thought this would be a close game, but I underestimated the Bills’ defence, and for the first time I feel like the Jets really let the game get away from them. Sadly, I really don’t see that Michael Vick will be the solution as the new starter given that Geno Smith was pulled in the first quarter, giving Vick plenty of time to secure the starter role through good play. I don’t think an interception and three fumbles, which luckily only once was recovered by the Bills, was really enough to win him the job.

This week the Jets travel to the Chiefs and I think it could be a long day. The Chiefs are a very well coached side, that often win the line of scrimmage battle on both sides of the ball and have playmakers on offense. They took care of business against the Rams last week, and have another bad team this week and whilst the points are high, I think the Chiefs will win big for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Dolphins (-1.5)

This should be a cracking game. The Dolphins did a solid job against the Jaguars last week, with their defence continuing to play well, and the offence looking like it is making progress. The Chargers are probably gasping for the bye to try and get healthy, but they didn’t disgrace themselves in the loss to the Broncos, and what are the chances that they would win two years in a row in Mile High stadium? I think the Chargers will do well with the extra rest, even having to travel across the country. This is a risky pick as I have no doubt that Dan will be picking the Dolphins, but I think they’ll come a cropper in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ Vikings (-1.5)

This is a meeting of two 3-5 teams who both found ways to win last week. The Vikings required an overtime Anthony Barr fumble return for a touchdown to beat the Buccaneers, whilst Washington managed to kick a field goal in overtime to win. This is the battle of last year’s Bengals’ coordinators, and whilst I think that Mike Zimmer is the better coach, I don’t know that he has the players right now. I’m more impressed with Washington beating the Cowboys and I’m getting points so I’m backing Washington for a second week in a row, but I would run a lot of miles before I put any money on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Texans (+2.5)

The Texans came through for me last week, but I’m not sure they have what it takes to win or cover in this game. The defence did well and Arian Foster has rushed for one hundred yards in six of the team’s seven games, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is still a worry and I don’t think that they will have enough in this game.

I don’t think that I overestimated the Eagles but underestimated the Cardinals. There are still questions about what is going on with the offence and LeSean McCoy, but the defence is top ten by DVOA and I have a feeling that they will get back on track this week. I don’t think they were as good as their winning start to the season led some people to think (myself included), but I think they are a better team than the Texans, and whilst I might have picked too many away teams last week, I don’t appear to have learnt my lesson.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Rams @ 49ers (-9.5)

The 49ers were on a bye last week, which they probably really needed given their injuries, but couldn’t have been much fun with the big loss to the Broncos in week seven hanging over them. I think that they have enough to win this game, but they are not the team from last year and this number worries me.

Having got the great win against the Seahawks in week seven, the Rams just got battered away to the Chiefs last week. Poor Austin Davis took seven sacks, and could only muster one touchdown and an interception in the 7-34 loss. They also look to have lost left tackle Jake Long for the season to an ACL tear, with receiver Brian Quick possibly following Long to IR with a shoulder problem, as well as listing right guard Rodger Saffold and centre Scott Wells as questionable with them also having left the game on Sunday.

I know I said the number worries me, but I think the 49ers will be raring to go this weekend, and are catching the Rams at a difficult point in an already horrible season.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Broncos @ Patriots (+3.5)

It’s time for another Brady Manning Bowl, and we should enjoy it whilst we still have them, because there can’t be many of these left.

The Patriots did a real number on the Bears last week, and I’m cross with myself for picking against them. I could write an essay about the way that Patriots attack the centre of the field when Gronkowski is healthy, and how this worked perfectly in attacking the Bears defence, but my focus is actually on Brady as something occurred to me this week. I stand by what I wrote about the ball not coming out like it did, and I did see him miss some throws in that Jets game, but we’ve been watching Peyton Manning throw wobbly passes for two seasons now and he has been incredibly effective. I should have know better than to forget the brains and the will of a Tom Brady, he is past his prime, but still is an incredibly effective quarterback and it looks like the offence is coming together now. He looks to finally have got another receiver in Brandon LaFell and they scored a lot of points last week.

That said, the Broncos right now look like the best team in the league. Their offence is still the best in the league by DVOA, but their defence is improved from last season and is currently ranked second in the league. I should be worried about taking another road favourite, but as good as the Patriots are, I think the Broncos will win this one. I’m really torn on this number, logic dictates that I should take the points and the Patriots at home, but I’m an idiot and if I am going to catch Dan then I need to take the occasional risk.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Raiders @ Seahawks (-14.5)

One team is 0-7 and the other is the reigning Super Bowl Champions and so you might think this is a reasonably large line to get action on both sides, but I’m not so sure.

As defending champions the Seahawks could well be dealing with Pat Riley’s disease of more, but they are certainly having a difficult season. The defence is not playing as well as last year, the offence is not quite firing, they’ve just traded Percy Harvin, there are rumours of discord in the locker room, and they are coming off an unconvincing win. They only scored thirteen points against the Panthers and even Russell Wilson had a drop in play last week, and otherwise he has been excellent this season.

The Raiders are not a good team, but in the majority of their games they are hanging tough. Their rookie quarterback Derek Carr threw for over three hundred yards and a touchdown without an interception, which offers some hope for the future. I don’t see them winning this game, especially in Seattle, but I think that they could keep it within fifteen points. I could be wrong, and the Seahawks could get themselves back on track this week, but I wouldn’t bet on it being by fifteen points or more.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Ravens @ Steelers (-0.5)

This will be a fascinating game for those of us invested in the AFC North, but possibly not a great spectacle. Although the Ravens lost to the Bengals last week, with a different penalty call they could very easily have won, and they still look like a good team. They are now the only team ranked in the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA, and I continue to feel confident about them.

The problem is that I do not know what to make of the up and down Steelers. Playing in their eye catching bumble bee throw back jerseys, they put fifty-one points on a Colts defence that had shut out the Bengals the week before. It is probably worth remembering that if a team’s offence is not scoring points, but has solid line play, good receivers including on of the best in the league, and a very good looking running back, then maybe they are due some points. That said, the Colts still managed to put up thirty-four points against a defence that is really not what you would expect from a Steelers team.

I do think that the Ravens are a level above the Steelers, but divisional games can be tricky so I expect a closer game than earlier in the season, but the same end result.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Colts @ Giants (+3.5)

The Colts had been playing so well that maybe they were due a bad game, but the defence that has looked so good recently, were bad against the Steelers as detailed above. However, even under these circumstances Andrew Luck was good enough to keep them hanging around. I am not going to over react to the last game, but the Colts defence plummeted down the rankings by DVOA and it will be interesting to see how that side of the ball goes over the next few weeks.

The Giants are coming off a bye week that followed two difficult losses. There’s no shame in losing to the Eagles and Cowboys this season, but the loss to the Eagles was pretty awful and the Cowboys beat them fairly easily as well. They are pretty much mid table in all three phases of the game by DVOA and I don’t think they have enough to win this game. I seem to be picking a lot of road favourites again, and I am a little bit torn on this one, but in the end I’m sticking with my instincts.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Neither Dan nor I liked the lines much last week and agreed they were a manure based bread snack.. However, the games were excellent, with the highlight probably being an improbable victory for the Rams over the visiting Seahawks. A win that included two great special teams plays that are well worth a look if you haven’t seen them yet. Also worth mentioning is that Peyton Manning passed Bret Farve to become the quarterback with the most passing touchdowns in league history, and given that he doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon, I think that record is going to get a lot bigger.

I’m kicking myself a little bit about picking the Chargers last week, I was tempted to pick them as the injuries are mounting up for the Chargers, the Chiefs were coming off a bye and had been playing well, despite the now odd looking loss to the Titans. What I didn’t know was that Andy Reid had a 13-2 record coming off a bye, more proof that he is a pretty good coach.

I reverted very quickly to gallows humour on Sunday whilst watching the Bengals get bludgeoned by the Colts defence. I’m adopting the new nickname of the Cincinnati Bagels for my team, as heard on the Tuesday Morning Football Podcast, for this week and hopefully they can manage to score some points against the good visiting Ravens, but as I’m beginning to talk about the games, I guess I should start writing them up properly.

Gee:      Week 7   6-9                       Overall   52-54
Dan:      Week 7   6-9                       Overall   55-51

Chargers @ Broncos (-7.5)

We have now had two good Thursday night games in a row and this one looks like it should a cracker. Both teams are playing well, although the Chargers are the much more injured team. I’m really looking forward to going through the coaching tape of this one, but for me I think there is only one likely winner. The Chargers have been kings of the time of procession battle and I think it is possible that they keep it close again, but the problem is that the Broncos defence is playing very well and they are surging ahead atop the DVOA rankings. This could backfire on me as these larger spreads are difficult, but I have a feeling that the Broncos are going to do well at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Lions vs. Falcons (+3.5)

Not only do we get a game in London this week, but the NFL are experimenting with an early kick-off. This will, as much as anything, tell them if they can fit another game into the Sunday TV schedules, firming up the rationale for putting on the games in London and possibly giving them another package to sell to the American networks. Sadly I think this is going to be a very one sided game. The Lions defence is playing brilliantly and the Falcons have lost five o-line starters to injury already this season. Not a good combination, and although the Lions have been struggling on offence, the Falcons defence has been worse so for me this is a simple pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Bills @ Jets (-2.5)

I was pretty impressed with a lot of what the Jets did against the Patriots last week, and you can make a case that they should have won the game. The problem is that they didn’t, and they failed to win in particularly characteristic ways. The bad penalties and the offence lack talent is not something that is going to turn around quickly. I wrote in my recap of the game that you can’t fix a lack of talent during the season, and the Jets immediately go out and trade for Percy Harvin. The history of high profile wide receiver transactions has not often been successful, so I’m really not sure if Percy Harvin will have an impact in this game. The deal was worth doing as Harvin’s contract means they can cut him easily if things don’t work out, and they only gave up a sixth round pick, but this isn’t a magic panacea that is going to fix all of their problems.

It turns out that Sammy Watkins is so good, that you only need competent quarterback play to win games, although the Bills left it very late against the Vikings. However, I don’t think the Jets will have the same success running the ball in this game and as a consequence I think this is a worse match up for them. I think this will be a very good close game, but I think I know where this one is going.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Patriots (-6.5)

I’m really not sure what to make of this game. The Bears have so much talent at the skill positions and Jay Cutler has the arm you would want, but he doesn’t protect the ball. The defence is ranked twelfth, which I think a lot of fans would have taken at the beginning of the season, and would be good enough to win if the offence was firing. Last week’s loss to the Dolphins was horrible, and there were was apparently plenty of frustration in the locker room after the game. However, this might not be that bad a game for them. I’m not sure that the Patriots team are firing on all cylinders yet, and they definitely can be run on, so I can see the Bears keeping this game close.

There is no doubting Brady’s competitive nature, and there are signs that things can work for their offence, but I’m not convinced. The ball doesn’t look like it is coming out of Brady’s hand as well as it used to; there have only been flashes from Gronkowski, Wright, LaFell, Edelman, and Amendola in the passing game; and they looked to be missing Stevan Ridley in the rushing game last week. I think they will win this game, but I don’t think they are going to run away with it. These are two teams that I have not been picking well all season, but I’m plumping for another close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Ravens @ Bagels (-1.5)

Oh dear… The Bagels couldn’t get anything going on Sunday and it was painful to watch, although not as painful as the hits on Giovani Bernard, who got drilled twice on attempted screen plays that went nowhere. There are injuries in the receiving corp, but we have enough weapons. The hard truth is that it looks like that Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are playing the wrong roles, in that Hill should be getting more carries and Bernard should be coming in as an awesome change of pace back. The defence stood up pretty well considering the number of three and outs the Bagels offence had to start the game, meaning that the defence was not getting a lot of help. The only crumb of comfort I’ve drawn so far, was the suggestion by Ross Tucker that the Bagels and Panthers’ poor play in week seven could be linked to them playing a full extra quarter of overtime in week six. I really hope that explains it.

There are questions about the Raven’s high rankings in the Football Outsiders stats due to the schedule they have played, but they look very good to me. The defence is playing a familiar brand of tough excellence, and Steve Smith has really added to an offence that really seems to be firing under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. I would love to be proved wrong, and I really hope that we get a close brawl of an AFC North game, but I’m worried about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Bagels

Texans @ Titans (+0.5)

The Texans had fairly spectacular collapse in about two minutes at the end of the second quarter, which was enough for the Steelers to turn the game around and continue their very good run on Monday night football. The questions about the offence remain, and they feel like they are a team that are going to hover around .500 all season. They are currently 3-4, and I fancy them to get back on track this week.

One of the biggest questions about the Titans is ho w did they get their win against the Chiefs in week one. They just managed to beat the Jaguars in week six and then lost to Washington on Sunday, but they have not been good and it looks like they will have a high draft pick to find themselves a franchise quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Rams @ Chiefs (-6.5)

So this is a game between the pick that got away from me last week, and the result I never saw coming.

The Chiefs are a very solid football team that have some weapons on offence and a very solid defence. They beat the Chargers at their own game last week and welcome a Rams team that got the result of week seven. This is one of those games that I’m going back and forth on, but the Chiefs are ranked thirteenth in special teams, and I can’t see a repeat of the Rams heroics on that side of the ball in this game so I’m worriedly going with the Chiefs to beat the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+5.5)

The Dolphins had a very good day in Chicago on Sunday leading the entire game as Ryan Tannehill threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns on twenty-five of thirty-two pass attempts. The defence are currently ranked third by DVOA and if they can get play like this from Tannehill more regularly they could really make fight of the AFC East.

Although it destroyed another pick for me, I’m pretty happy for the Jaguars as they finally notched one in the win column. That they managed this despite Blake Bortles throwing three interceptions, which speaks of a solid performance by their defence. The problem is that they lost Paul Posluszny for the rest of the year to a torn pectoral, and he has been a cornerstone of their defence so I think they will come down with a bump in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Vikings @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Urgh…

So the Vikings narrowly lost to the Bills with Teddy Bridgewater throwing a pair of interceptions and the Bills losing two running backs during the game. Their o-line is not good and the defence is ranked a lowly twenty-second, which is surprising given Mike Zimmer’s ability as a defensive coach.

The Buccaneers are coming off a bye week having been thoroughly beaten by the Ravens, and although it was not as bad as the Falcons drubbing, it was not good. They’ve been pretty poor, with only the week five overtime win against the Saints to cling to.

I don’t like either side in this game, so I’m reluctantly taking the points as I have to make a pick, but I’m glad I don’t have any money riding on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Seahawks @ Panthers (+4.5)

So I follow up one game where I don’t know what to make of the teams, to another that I’m struggling with but for different reasons.

The Seahawks lost another game road game, and their special teams have plummeted down the DVOA rankings after last week’s performance. They are looking good on offence, with Russell Wilson continuing his excellent season, but they are a bit thinner on defence, the pass rush is not creating pressure like it was last season. However, they are still a good team with very good players and I find it hard to believe that they will lose three games in a row.

The Panthers had one of those games that can happen to anyone visiting Lambeau Field. They simply don’t have the secondary to cope with Aaron Rodgers, and having only allowed two touchdowns in the first quarter before this game, found themselves down at the end of the opening quarter. Cam Newton has been playing well this season, but he couldn’t get the Panthers back in the game. I have gone 2-5 picking the Panthers this year, and I don’t feel great about this, but there is a large gap between them in the DVOA rankings, and I think that the Seahawks will return to winning ways this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Eagles @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals got their fifth win of the season last week, and stand atop of the loaded NFC West despite various injuries. Carson Palmer has looked okay when he has played, but the offence is ranked only twenty-fifth by DVOA, and it is their top five defence that’s keeping them in games. They were comfortable against the Raiders without exactly impressing, and I’m sort of waiting for the key injuring on defence to catch up with them.

The Eagles are the other team coming of a bye in week 7, and were very impressive in their week 6 game against the Giants. They got a pass rush unlike anything we have seen from them all season, and somehow they are ranked higher in defence than offence by DVOA. I think this will be a really good game, but I think right now that the Eagles are the healthier and therefore the better team so I’m taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Raiders @ Browns (-7.5)

I don’t like this line at all. The Raiders are not good, although there are signs that they might have a quarterback in Derek Carr, but I’m not sure where their first win is coming from. The Browns however, seem to be struggling due to the shuffles on their o-line since the Alex Mack injury, and whilst I think the Browns should win, I don’t like the points. I don’t like picking the Raiders, but in this game I’m going to give it a go.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Colts @ Steelers (+2.5)

I do not know what to make of the Steelers. They are up and down on offence and ranked a measly twenty-sixth in defensive DVOA. Their defence doesn’t look right and the offence isn’t scoring that many points. They put up thirty points last week, but they had two drives that started in the red zone in that game, and I think they might struggle this week because of the opposition. Plus, if they lose they get to keep their alternating win-loss record they’ve currently got going.

I have watched the Colts for two weeks straight now and have been impressed by their defence. They are blitzing a lot on third down, getting pressure, and are much better than I was expecting, or gave them credit for until recently. When you couple this with an offence led by Andrew Luck, you can see why they are 5-2 and heading up the AFC South. They have joined the Ravens in having all three phases of the game ranked inside the top ten by DVOA and I think that they will win this game and cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Packers @ Saints (-1.5)

The Saints could be due a win, and possibly should have had one against the Lions, but there was some horrific angles taken by their secondary in conceding a touchdown to Golden Tate and once again the Saints offence isn’t quite running as smoothly as we have come to expect.

The Packers on the other hand, are up and running after their 1-2 start. Their defence is ranked a credible tenth by DVOA and the offence is looking like the well oiled machine we have come to expect, and have the number two ranking to match. I see this game going only one way, which is worrying as this is a competitive league, but I do think the Packers will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Washington @ Cowboys (-9.5)

The Washington season is not going well, they have lots of questions surrounding their quarterbacks, and for this game they are starting Colt McCoy, which can’t be good. Their defence is doing okay, but they’ve just lost Brian Orakpo for the season to a third torn pectoral muscle of his career. The good news is that they are ranked top ten in rush defence by DVOA, which is going to be handy in this game as the Cowboys are pretty good at running the ball. I do not think they can win this game, but the points worry me in this game.

The Cowboys continue to be one of the stories of the season, and took care of business against the Giants at home in what could have been a letdown game after they went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks. I am pretty confident that they are going to win this game, but the points worry me. Washington’s defence is ranked a little worse in pass and a lot better against the run than the Giants, who lost by ten to the Cowboys. It might be that I got bitten by this number last week, but I just have a feeling that in a divisional game Washington might keep it closer. I’m worried about the Colt McCoy experience, and I’m sure that the Cowboys will win, but I’m backing Washington for the cover. Eeep.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

It has been a fairly hectic week so having finally got a close Thursday night game, I had to abandon the coach’s tape half way through this weekend, and missed another write up which is pretty frustrating. Losing another game to Dan was even more frustrating, and changing your mind on the Browns and then watching them hammer the Steelers was down right infuriating.

I can just about live with the Giants just getting blown out by the Eagles; and I should have know that the Seahawks would not win by eight, even if I wasn’t expecting them to lose; I missed on the Packers by half a point; but that Browns win is bugging me as the signs were there and I second guessed myself. Worse than all of that though is how my team is playing since their bye week. It feels like the Bengals are faltering, and whilst they are beaten up at certain spots on the roster, I’m becoming increasingly worried that the playoff win drought is going to continue for another year.

So on to the week 7 games, and the lines are horrible. As I write this introduction there are three games that I have actually picked a side on so let’s write them up and see how things go. The only thing I can take solace in is that I keep hearing professional NFL commentators say they don’t know what’s going on this season either.

Gee:     Week 6   10-5             Overall   46-45
Dan:     Week 6   11-4             Overall   49-42

Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)

So last week the Thursday night game was decided by five points, but I don’t see that happening this week. The Patriots got themselves going against the Bengals at home, and then followed it up with a very solid win away at Buffalo. Tom Brady threw for over 300 yards for the first time this season, getting four touchdowns and making use not only of Gronkowski, but Brandon LaFell who led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. There were some notable injuries to linebacker Jerod Mayo and Steven Ridley, but the top of the AFC East looks a lot more familiar this week.

The Jets continue to struggle and I don’t see it changing this week playing in New England. Their offence is still sputtering and their defence is in danger of dropping out of the top 20 by DVOA. The only bright spot by the numbers is their special teams ranking of sixth, but in the introduction to the almanac, Football Outsiders gave a ratio of importance for the three phases as 4:3:1 in order of offence, defence, and special teams. They did lead their game for one quarter, and the defence gave Peyton Manning some problems, but having got themselves back into the game at 17-24. Geno Smith threw a pick-six and the game was over. They also could ill afford to lose another member of their secondary with Dee Milliner tearing his achilles. Having beaten the woeful Raiders in week one, they have lost by seven or more points for the rest of the season. The amount of points in this week’s spread does give me pause, but in the end I’m backing Patriots on a Thursday night game, which could get ugly.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Dan’s Comments: – Horrible. Patriots will win, but it’s difficult to predict by how much. I’ll pick them though this week.

Falcons @ Ravens (-6.5)

This is one of the few relatively straight forward picks this week. There are only so many ways you can write that the Falcons are too injured. They still have talent on offence, but they are ranked thirty-first on defence by DVOA and are not a good road team. The Ravens on the other hand are currently ranked second overall by DVOA, are ranked top ten in all phases of the game, and are playing well. I don’t think Flacco will be throwing four touchdowns in a quarter again, but I’m happily taking the Ravens. Now watch them lose…

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Dan’s Comments: – So the Bears pretty much took the Falcons apart week 6, and similarly the Ravens tore the Bucks a new one (arguably not difficult!). Comfortable Ravens win.

Vikings @ Bills (-4.5)

I don’t know what I am meant to do with this game. I haven’t had a handle on the Bills all year, but in last week’s game, the defence that has been so solid was somewhat porous against the Patriots. Kyle Orton has looked okay in parts, and is certainly a step up from Manuel, but he can’t throw interceptions if the Bills want to win.

The Vikings had a horrible loss against the Lions. In a game they have traditionally done well in, they struggled as their rookie quarterback threw three interceptions against the Lions. That said, the blame shouldn’t all be placed on Teddy Bridgewater, he was sacked eight times as the Lions pass rush harassed him so frequently that it is hard to imagine anyone thriving under those circumstances. They are thirtieth in overall DVOA and thirty-first in offence. In a week that requires them to go against another good defence I think they will struggle again. The points worry me, but I think the Bills keep themselves in the hunt in the AFC East with a win and that’s where I’m going.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Dan’s Comments: – Vikings aren’t scoring much, but Buffalo’s defence has been shaky recently. I’ve got a feeling it’s going to be Minnesota’s week this week though.

Dolphins @ Bears (-3.5)

The Bears needed the win last week to stay competitive in their division, and they got it on the road against the Falcons. It was good Cutler in week six, who threw for 381 yards, a touchdown, but more importantly no interceptions. Their defence somehow jumped up eight places in defensive DVOA despite them beginning the game without all three of their starting linebackers. The question is how much of their win in the last game was them playing better, and how much was the Falcons playing badly.

The Dolphins seem to be playing solidly, and only narrowly lost to the Packers. They are mid league in overall ranking and offence by DVOA, horrible in special teams, and top five in defence. There are two big bits of news coming out of their weekend game. The first is the continued questions surrounding their coach Joe Philbin, who took a horrible time out with thirteen seconds on the play clock, giving Aaron Rodgers of all people a chance to take stock and prepare the game winning touchdown, which he duly got on the next play. I’ve mentioned before about the apparent dysfunction in the way this team is run, and this doesn’t seem like great game management, although there is more to being a head coach than just that. Of more significance perhaps is the loss of Knowshon Moreno, who is done for the year with an ACL tear. However, Lamar Miller has been doing well this season, and I was impressed with rookie Damien Williams in pre-season so they hopefully can cope.

I am going back and forth on this game, but I see it as another close one for the Dolphins, and whilst I don’t know if they will win, I’ll take the points and see how I do.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: – Picking Dolphins again this week, partly through blind hope, and partly because I know it’s annoying Gee! Sorry mate!

Gee’s Reply: – I’m only annoyed at being three games behind to someone who is blindly picking their team, but the fault is really mine…

Bengals @ Colts (-2.5)

It may be the influence of Ross Tucker in the way he talks about ties on his podcast, but the last two games since the bye feel like losses and it seems weird to keep seeing them listed above the Ravens who have one more win. The Bengals could have won it on the last play of the game, but Nugent missed the filed goal. The offence is continuing to find ways to get points despite Andy Dalton losing more targets, and Marvin Jones has just been moved to IR and won’t be coming back this season. The defence seems to be getting gashed in the running game, and are struggling against the pass as it doesn’t matter how good your secondary is if your pass rush can’t get to the quarterback. It is too early to hit the panic button; the Bengals need to get Green back healthy and find some stops on defence, but I’m not sure this is the game to do it. It’s also worth noting that things didn’t improve on defence with the return of Vontaze Burfict, who announced his return by appearing to twist at the ankles of Greg Olsen and Cam Newton, which has to be dealt with. He is a player who plays on the edge, but there are fouls and then there is intentionally trying to injure someone. We’ll see how the league decides to deal with it, but the Bengals need him playing well and making tackles, playing the right way.

I was really impressed with both Andrew Luck and TY Hilton when I watched them last week. I also really liked the onside kick that was easily recovered to get them an extra possession. They were seventeen points up in under ten minutes and twenty-four up by the end of the first quarter. However, the Texans did manage to make a game of it and get themselves back into the game. I was fairly impressed with the Colts’ defence, but I’m not sure how much of that was the o-line and patchy nature of the Texans. In this game I like them to do well, AJ Green is out at least another week, and I’m wary of how much time Andrew Luck is going to get in this game. I’ll happily drop a win to Dan if it means the Bengals win, but I think they would need Green back to keep up in this game. I hope I am wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Dan’s Comments: – To make things worse, I’m going to pick the Colts. They’re starting to roll and I think the Bengals may struggle.

Browns @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars can’t quite seem to find a way to win. They moved off the bottom of the rankings by DVOA, but they had a chance to win their last game with an end of the game field goal but had it blocked. The defence seems to have improved a little, but Blake Bortles is getting very little blocking from his o-line, and whilst there are times when he holds on to the ball for too long, a lot of the time the defence is getting to him without having to blitz. I think they are going to be kicking themselves about this loss as it was an opportunity for them, one that I don’t think they are going to get this week.

I’m still kicking myself about my Browns pick last week, and it is not as if they only just squeaked by the points spread. The surprising thing to me is not what they are doing, but how they are doing it as the defence is only ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA and their offence is ranked number two, with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and without their star wide receiver. I don’t see anything in the Jaguars that makes me think that the Browns won’t cover this spread.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Dan’s Comments: – Not a difficult pick this one. Jags aren’t looking great, although they got agonisingly close to their first ‘W’ last weekend.

Saints @ Lions (-2.5)

The Saints were on a bye last week, but I’m not sure how much that is going to help them unless Rob Ryan has done some serious self-scouting and has a new plan for his badly misfiring defence. In fairness, the offence hasn’t been what you would expect and it will be interesting to see how they do this week against a Lions team that leads the league in defensive DVOA. They could turn it round and go on a run, but right now I need to see something from them before I will believe it.

The Lions are doing it with defence. They are struggling on offence, and look like a different team with Calvin Johnson sidelined with his ankle problems, but it’s probably best to sit him now and try to get him healthy for the home stretch. The defence not only leads the league in DVOA, but looks like it is playing that well too. They gave poor Teddy Bridgewater no time to work with last week, and having stifled Aaron Rodgers earlier in the season, I think they will do enough to win this game for their offence.

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Dan’s Comments: – Tricky. I think the Lions will just about have enough to overcome New Orleans.

Panthers @ Packers (-6.5)

I’m really not sure what to make of either of these teams. The Packers got a win against the Dolphins because Aaron Rodgers is really good at football (with apologies to Bill Barnwell), and they are well ranked in DVOA, but they did only just beat the Dolphins who are very up and down. The Panthers are lower ranked than the Dolphins, but beat the Bengals who are one place above the Packers, and seem to be up and down themselves. I’m a confused mess when I watch these teams. I feel like the Packers should win, and have more faith in them than I do in Carolina, but do I have seven points worth of faith? I really don’t know, so I’m falling back on taking the points, and my first pick as if the Packers win, fine I was wrong, but I’ll kick myself if the Panthers keep it close, which I think they might. I think…

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Panthers

Dan’s Comments: – Another difficult one. Packers will win this, but not by a touchdown, so I’ll pick Carolina.

Titans @ Washington (-4.5)

So Washington lost to the Cardinals, with Kirk Cousins falling to 0-3 as a starter this season. He threw for 354 yards, two interceptions, and three picks, which explains why they lost again. The problem seems to be accuracy, as he has good moments, but he can’t seem to protect the football. The defence is keeping them in games and this could be the game that they get one back in the win column. I’m not sure how good the Titans should feel getting that a win against the 0-6 Jaguars, given that they could have lost it. Still, all wins count the same and they did block the Jaguars’ attempt at a field goal. However, I think that Washington will be a sterner a test and that the winning feeling will be a short lived one in Tennessee.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Dan’s Comments: – This is the pick I’ve been struggling with most this week. I think Washington will start to turn it round this week.

Seahawks @ Rams (+6.5)

So the big result in week six was the Seahawks losing at home to the Cowboys. The Seahawks look like they lack a little bit of depth on defence this year, even before they lost Byron Maxwell to a calf injury (he is currently listed as doubtful for this game), and are not quite the same dominant team as they were last season, although they are still pretty damn good. However, Russell Wilson has proven himself to be an excellent quarterback, and it took a fine overall performance and game plan from the Cowboys to defeat them. However, I do think that they will bounce back against the Rams, whose defence is not playing up to the level that I expected and whose offence is struggling. It was always going to be a long season for the Rams after Sam Bradford went down and I don’t see that changing here. They are at the wrong end of the DVOA standings in all three phases of the game and although I have a slight pause at the points, I don’t think they cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Dan’s Comments: – Finally an easy pick. Rams are looking pretty terrible.

Chiefs @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Chiefs are the other team coming off a bye this week, and I’m not sure that I’m happy to see them back. This is strictly because I really haven’t got a handle on how to pick this team. I saw them several times in preseason and was impressed, they have some good attacking talent and Alex Smith may not be a flashy QB, but he wins games. They are ranked in the middle of the league for everything by DVOA, and have a blow out win against the Patriots on Monday Night Football as well as loss to the generally woeful Titans. I think that they are a sold football team, but that this won’t cut it in a division with the Chargers and the Broncos.

The Chargers are playing brilliantly at the moment, but injuries might be catching up with them. The Raiders were the first team to stop the Chargers covering this season, but Philip Rivers is still playing as well as any quarterback in the league, leading the offense to a ranking of sixth by DVOA despite having no running game to support him. Now the Raiders have occasionally shown some signs of life, and they could have been buoyed by their new head coach, but I don’t want to read too much into this game. I may regret this, because as usual the points total worries me, but I’m learning my lesson last week and I’m not second guessing myself.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – Chargers by 10

Giants @ Cowboys (-6.5)

The Giants ran into a brick wall against the Eagles. Their improving offence was shut out whilst giving up eight sacks, and their defence was gouged for 203 yards rushing, including LeSean McCoy’s first one hundred yard game of the season. The Giants currently are 3-3 and haven’t finished a game within a single score all year. I’m not sure what to make of their overall DVOA as a loss like this will send you into freefall, but dropping from eighth to twenty-first was pretty spectacular. So the question is what team is going to turn up this week, and the honest answer is I don’t know, but given the horrible injury to Victor Cruz I think they could struggle on offence.

Their opponents however, have done if not the impossible, then the very difficult in beating the Seahawks in Seattle. I should have given them the credit that they would cover, but I don’t feel bad about being unsure if they could win. This was the test that everybody wanted to see if the Cowboys were for real, and it appears that they are. DeMarco Murray has started the season with six one hundred yard rushing games, the only other running back to do that is Jim Brown, and any time you get mentioned with a name like that you know that something is going right. The knock on Murray has been his durability so I do wonder if they are going to lighten his workload as he is currently on pace for over four hundred carries this season, but the line is playing great, and the offence is currently top ten by DVOA. I think the Cowboys will continue their good record this week, and I just hope they cover.

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Dan’s Comments: – The Cowboys are impressing a lot of people I’m talking to at the minute. May that continue into week 7!

Cardinals @ Raiders (+3.5)

It is possible that Bruce Arians is doing the best coaching job in the NFL right now. He’s had a revolving door at quarterback and the team have suffered various injuries, yet somehow they have a 4-1 record. Their defence is ranked sixth by DVOA despite the offseason losses and current injuries. They took care of Washington last week and I expect them to do the same to the Raiders.

The Raiders played better last week, staying with the Chargers throughout the game, but ultimately couldn’t get their first win. David Carr has a really good looking arm, but was inaccurate throwing the last deep ball that was intercepted and is going through typical rookie growing pains. The problem is that in week three the Raiders hung tough with Patriots and the following week they were walloped by the Dolphins in London. It’s possible that they could play the Cardinals close this week, but I’m not prepared to back them doing it just yet.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Dan’s Comments: – Cardinals’ll be fairly comfortable this week against the Raiders.

49ers @ Broncos (-6.5)

This is probably the game of the week. The Broncos head up the DVOA rankings with an offense ranked number one and a defensive rank of two, and it has often felt like they haven’t hit top gear yet. This could very well be the game that Peyton Manning gets the record for the most touchdowns thrown by a quarterback.

The 49ers took care of the Rams in the second half of last week’s game, ultimately running out handy winners with an impressive defensive performance and some high powered plays on offence. How their defence is ranked number three by DVOA given the injuries and suspensions they have on that side of the ball is something of a question. However, with Patrick Willis now looking doubtful with a toe injury, I wonder if this is a game too far for this team. I’m going with my gut this time as the 49ers were playing the Rams last week.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Dan’s Comments: – Two pretty well matched teams. I’ll pick SF because of the Spread.

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers look like they might be the worst team in the AFC North. The big surprise for me is that they have one of the best receivers in the game in Antonio Brown, a running back that looks really good in Le’Veon Bell, yet somehow their offence has only managed ten points in their last two games. I didn’t think their o-line looked bad when I watched the coaching tape a few weeks ago, but something is clearly not working. When you couple that with a defence that is struggling, it got gouged for 158 yards last week, and is ranked a poor by Pittsburgh standards twenty-third by DVOA, you have a recipe for a disappointing season.

The Texans are so much better than last year, but they aren’t quite there yet. I’ve frequently declared my love for JJ Watt, but Arian Foster is also playing well this season, and Andre Johnson continues to be a threat. The problem is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is streaky and the team seems to be playing in the same manner. They did really well to get back into the game last week against the Colts, but you’re not going to win many games by going down twenty-four points in the first quarter. I just have a feeling that with the Steelers struggling, the Texans might be able to take advantage and even if they can’t, I’m not sure the Steelers are going to win by a lot. Cue a Steelers blowout, but that’s not what I’m picking to happen

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Texans in this one, I think.

I had a better time with my picks last week, but it didn’t do me much good as Dan and I had matching records, so I’m still two games behind him, and he is at a respectable 50% overall. I also didn’t get a chance to write up last week’s Thursday night game as I was busy over the weekend. Sadly it was another blow out, and so I don’t feel too guilty as although I enjoy looking at the coaching tape now that I have available to me, it would be nice to get to do it for a close game.

I thought that this week’s DVOA roundup from Football Outsiders (found here), had some interesting things to say on the overall standard of teams this season, and is well worth a look if you get a chance.

There will be a slight change this week as Dan is currently away, I have his Thursday night pick and will give post the rest when he gets back before the games on Sunday. There are not a lot games that I like the lines of, so let’s take a look as it is going to be another interesting week in the NFL.

Gee:     Week 4   10-5              Overall   36-40
Dan:     Week 4   10-5              Overall   38-38

Colts @ Texans (+2.5)

I was right in suggesting that the Texans would be involved in a close game last week, as they covered in a three point loss to the Cowboys. Their defence kept them in the game, despite Tony Romo spinning away from JJ Watt to complete a 43 yard pass, and Dez Bryant making a catch over Jonathan Joseph despite perfect coverage and Joseph having an arm between Bryant’s hands during the catch. The problem for this team is going to be the offence, and whether they can give the team enough to win. In some games they will, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is a limited quarterback who only had 154 yards and an interception against the Cowboys, and this is likely to be a problem all year.

The Colts on the other hand, have the luxury of having another great quarterback, and whilst he didn’t have his best game last week, he has led his team to the thirteenth on offence by DVOA this season in only his third year. I don’t know what the Thursday night effect will be on the game, and I fear another blow out, but I’m taking the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Patriots @ Bills (+3.5)

So I didn’t pick the Patriots last week, as their week four loss taught me that to do so just because of Brady and Belichick in a prime time game was a bad reason to pick games that way. Well, they followed up that horrible loss against the Chiefs on Monday night football, by spanking the Bengals in the Sunday night game. I’ll cover the Bengals in the next game write up, but the Patriots came out aggressively and played their best football of the season. Their o- line looked better, and Brady looked like he was having fun, which is easier to do when you are winning. I’m not sure they have answered every question, but the dual tight end attack featuring a rejuvenate Rob Gronkowski, and their late preseason trade piece Tim Wright, caught the eye with 185 yards and two touchdowns between them. Add to this 220 yards on the ground and it was a long day for the Bengals defence. Despite their turbulent start to the season, they have a chance this week to take sole possession of the AFC East with a win over the Bills.

I do not have a handle on the Bills at all. They beat the Lions 17-14, but the Lions kicker missed three field goals and so could have won the game pretty easily. Their defence and special teams are both ranked third by DVOA, but their offence is a sputtering twenty-seventh and whilst Kyle Orton is a stable starter, especially when compared to EJ Manuel, I don’t see them improving dramatically. I have picked the Patriots wrong for two weeks now, so Bills fans could well be happy that I’m picking against them this week, but I see a more familiar shape to the AFC East by the end of this weekend.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots

Panthers @ Bengals (-7.5)

I am not panicking, but I am worried. The Bengals team is still good, and has a lot of talent, but I’m still waiting for the light to go on in prime time. This was another game where Andy Dalton failed to answer the questions that surround him in big games. The Bengals are clearly missing Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert in the passing game, and Hue Jackson’s commitment to the run doesn’t seem to have materialised. I think they’ll continue to be good and make the playoffs, but it really is a playoff win or bust for this team, and I this is the kind of game that makes you wonder if this is the year they turn it round. I am not one of those who questions Marvin Lewis’ record, if you look at the changes he has made over the years to the Bengals, I think there has been tremendous process. I understand that he hasn’t won a playoff game, but the Bengals were a national joke and he has turned that round into a good drafting, very talented team. You don’t throw that away, but I don’t understand why good head coaches, who are not great game managers, don’t just hire someone to this for them. Andy Reid is another really good coach, who could benefit from someone tracking time management etc on game day.

The Panthers proved me wrong last week, beating a Bears team that are up and down and lead their conference with a 3-2 record. Cam Newton is really developing as a quarterback, throwing two touchdowns to tight end Greg Olsen and he is gaining trust in rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The defence is still a worry, ranking twenty-seventh by DVOA and giving up 347 yards last week, but they did get four turnovers. I expect the Bengals to bounce back at home where they have been very good for several seasons now, but I believe that the Panthers will give a good account of themselves so I am wary of this points total.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers

Steelers @ Browns (-1.5)

I’m really not sure where to go with this line. The Steelers continued their win, loss, win, loss pattern by beating the Panthers last week, but they’ve not been convincing for a lot of the year. Not only did the Browns win on the road against the woeful Titans, but they managed the largest ever comeback by a road team, overturning a twenty-five point deficit in the process. I think this game could go either way, but whilst I think the Browns are a tough team to play, I’m not sure that they should be favourites in this game. Neither of these teams’ defences are ranked as well as I would have expected going into the season, but I have more faith in the Steelers’ offence than I do in the Browns’ offence, despite the Browns ranking five places higher at fourth by DVOA, so I’m going with the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers

Broncos @ Jets (+8.5)

The Jets are struggling due to a lack of talent. On offence things are going from bad to worse and it looks like I was wrong to say there were signs of improvement in Geno Smith, particularly with stories of him missing meetings and visiting the cinema before a game. In fairness, Michael Vick didn’t exactly light it up when he came into the game. That the Jets are a mess is not perhaps a surprise, but they are also ranked nineteenth on defence as the play of their secondary means that even Rex Ryan is struggling to sort them out. I think this is going to be one season too many for Ryan, who I’m not convinced about as a head coach, but who I would hire in a heart beat as a defensive coordinator, particularly if you have the personnel in place for his 3-4 scheme.

There is not much to say about the Broncos for the opposite reason. They are very good, it’s no surprise that Peyton Manning is playing well, and their defence is ranked second by DVOA, whilst they team overall stands top of both the DVOA and DAVE rankings. It was only in the fourth quarter, when injuries caught up with the Cardinals, that they really pulled away from the visiting team, so I don’t feel bad about picking against the Broncos last week, but I can’t see the Jets doing anything similar in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos

Lions @ Vikings (+1.5)

This is a big game for the Lions if they want to remain in contention in the NFC North. They could have won the game last week despite Calvin Johnson being hobbled, having left nine points on the field through missed field goals. The offence is struggling and I don’t see that changing with Calvin Johnsons being listed as doubtful. However their defence is ranked first by DVOA and this it was this side of the ball that helped them beat the Packers in week 3. They have the Vikings, Saints, and Falcons coming up before a bye, so now looks to be not a bad time to rest Johnson and look to push on later in the season. I think they should be able to compete in this stretch, but it will be a test.

I’m not going to over react to the Vikings’ blow out loss on Thursday night, we only have to look at what the Buccaneers did the week after their horrible loss to the Falcons to see that this does not have to define your season, but I am worried. You knew going into that game that the offence was going to struggle with Christian Ponder starting, but in fairness there were more problems than just him. The o-line didn’t look to be getting much push in the rushing game or giving much protection in pass sets, and even when Asiata had a good run, he fumbled the ball. I’m not sure if Teddy Bridgewater will be back this week as he is still listed as questionable, so I’m not sure if the offence will turn around. The defence got gouged for various plays, but also got a lot of three and outs against the Packers offence and looked good in patches. The Vikings are currently ranked twenty-ninth overall by DVOA, but the blow out will be affecting that ranking and I think they are a little better than that. However, I don’t think that will be enough for them to win this game against the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions

Packers @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Packers are looking more like themselves over the last two weeks, especially on offence, where Rodgers has thrown for a combined 458 yards, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. The o-line seems to be holding up better, and Eddie Lacy is looking more like the running back he was expected to be before the start of the season. The defence also looked good last week with six sacks, and a slimmed down Julius Peppers looking good as he ran an interception back 49 yards for a touchdown. As with the Vikings, I wouldn’t read too much into the lopsided nature of the Thursday night game results as we’ve had a lot of these so far this season, but the Packers now sit third overall in DVOA, and whilst I think the defence may fall back from its current ranking of twelfth, I think the Packers are heading in the right direction.

The Dolphins are coming off a bye, having spectacularly taught me a lesson about falling for a team that sounded good in interviews. I still don’t like the way Joe Philbin dealt with his quarterback situation, but Tannehill responded with a good game in Wembley as they solidly beat the Raiders. However, I’m not going to get carried away with this win due to who they were playing. They are good on defence, but the Packers are now looking more like the team we were expecting them to be, and there are still questions around the Dolphins’ offence that makes me think they are losing this one despite being at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Titans (-6.5)

For me this is a fairly straight forward pick. I suppose you could say that it was good that the Titans built a 25 point lead, but it was a horrible loss to the Browns, and now Jake Locker is questionable with a thumb injury. I do not like this team and I actually think that they might lose to the Jaguars, but even if they do win, I don’t see them doing so by seven or more points when the Steelers only beat the Jaguars by eight. The Jaguars don’t exactly inspire confidence, but I don’t see them losing every game and I think they will keep this game close.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars

Ravens @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

I hate this line! The Buccaneers have played solidly since their blow out loss to the Faclons in Week three, and look they have something going with Mike Glennon at quarterback, whilst the defence has also being playing better. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and lost to the Saints in overtime, but they are still thirty-first overall by DVOA so I’m not that taken with them.

The problem for me is that the Ravens have looked good for a lot of the season, particularly after shaking off a week one loss against the Bengals, but they don’t seem to be travelling that well. They only beat the Browns by two points in Cleveland and lost against the Colts last week. However, there is a chasm between them in the DVOA rankings and I think that facing Mike Glennon is very different to facing Andrew Luck, so I will take the Ravens to bounce back with a win, hopefully covering the points whilst they are at it.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5)

The Chargers continue to look good, but the injuries are mounting up for them. This might make me pause over a number this large, but not against the Raiders. Right now Philip Rivers is just playing too well and the Raiders have been rotten. I don’t know why I fell for them in the London game, given that one of my survivor strategies has been picking teams playing the Raiders. I don’t what affect the firing of Dennis Allen will have, but there are also talent issue for this team and until I see something from the Raiders, I’m not backing them, even when they are getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is another line I don’t like. The Falcons are still riding high in the DVOA rankings, but that is mainly because of their game against the Buccaneers. They will be better at home as they always are, but their o-line is a mess and the defence is not looking good. The Bears need this win to stay in contention, and I think they will get it, but I am worried. They’ve not looked good over the last couple of weeks, and Jay Cutler needs to protect the ball more, but they should have too much for the Falcons

Gee’s Pick:      Bears

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-7.5)

The Cowboys continued their good start to the season with a close win over the Texans last week, but I’m not so sure of them this week. They needed overtime to get the win, and whilst their young o-line has been playing excellently, visiting Seattle is really going to test them. They made some spectacular plays on offence, which I don’t think they will get against the Seahawks, and their defence will face a tougher test this week.

I think that the Seahawks will win this game. Poor Percy Harvin had three touchdowns called back by penalties against Washington, with James Carpenter giving away twenty-five yards of penalties on two of these plays. I am worried about the points as the Cowboys have been good and the smart play would be to take them, but with that home field advantage I’m thinking that the Cowboys are in for a long day.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks

Washington @ Cardinals (-3.5)

The Cardinals were keeping it close until the fourth quarter last week, until injuries finally did for them as they lost Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson on defence, as well as losing Drew Stanton to injury, forcing them to play the Logan Thomas at quarterback. They have to keep Thomas on the roster as someone would claim him from the practice squad, but he’s not ready to play yet and this is a real problem for them with Carson Palmer’s injury. The history of nerve issues is not inspiring; as anyone who has followed NBA great Steve Nash’s recent seasons will know, but with Drew Stanton on concussion protocol, quarterback could be a real problem for the Cardinals.

Washington has not been impressive this season, but they have a chance this week. I’m not convinced they can win; their offence and defence don’t rank too badly but their special teams are thirty-first by DVOA. They are another team that I really didn’t like in Thursday night game, but they didn’t do much last week to convince me either so whilst I am going back and forth on this one, I don’t think I can back them this week despite the Cardinals issues.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals

Giants @ Eagles (-2.5)

The Eagles found a way last week against the Rams, leading the game convincingly until the fourth quarter when they let the Rams back a little. They got another touchdown from a blocked punt, and lead the league in special teams DVOA, but their offence is still struggling compared to where they were expected to be. They are not much healthier on the o-line and LeSean McCoy has not looked like the back he was last year. The defence seems to be holding up better than expected, but overall this team’s 4-1 record includes two three point wins that could have easily gone the other way, and you can only score so many special teams touchdowns.

The Giants on the other hand, have been steadily improving, with Eli Manning now looking really good in the new offence. They have now won three straight games and are actually ranked higher in overall DVOA than the Eagles, as well as ub offensive and defensive DVOA. I fancy them to give the Eagles a hard time this week and I like that I’m getting points as well. This could well be the week there Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys all end up with 4-2 records.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants

49ers @ Rams (+3.5)

There are so many stories swirling round the 49ers, and in particular Jim Harbaugh, at the moment, but they have still won the last two games. Their defence is playing well, whilst their offence is stuttering a bit. You would like to see more development from Colin Kaepernick, but they are getting it done and I wouldn’t bet against them this week.

The Rams are thirtieth in defensive DVOA and twenty-third in offence, but whilst Austin Davis did throw for 375 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, the Rams were never really in the game against the Eagles, and only a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter kept the score respectable. I don’t think that they will have such success on offence this week and I think they lose another one.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers.

So a little delayed, I present this week’s picks:

One of the things I love about the NFL is also one of the things that make the process of picking games so difficult. On any given Sunday you’ll get the unexpected and there are very few nailed on wins or losses. Last week I was five and eight, but I only dropped another game behind Dan so hopefully I can still turn this round. The reason we had such a tough week is that who could have predicted that the 0-3 Buccaneers would beat the Steelers; or that the struggling Vikings would batter the Falcons 41-28; or that the Eagles would block a punt to score a touchdown, return an interception for a touchdown, and return another punt for a touchdown, yet still lose to the 49ers. There are picks I feel good about that lost and some that I’d love to have back, but I think we’re beginning to get a better idea about some of these teams so let’s take look at the upcoming week.

Gee:     Week 4   5-8                Overall   26-35
Dan:     Week 4   6-7                Overall   28-33

Vikings @ Packers (-9.5)

The quality of the Thursday night games has been somewhat up and down again this season, and I’d love to see a close game at some point. I’m looking forward to this game a lot, the Vikings had a really good win on Sunday against the Falcons with Teddy Bridgewater in his first game taking care of the ball and throwing for 317 yards, whilst their defence held the Falcons enough to win. The worrying this is that Teddy Bridgewater sprained is ankle and is questionable for this game. It appears that the Aaron Rodgers was right when he told Packer’s fans to relax, as he threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns, shredding the Bears defence to win their game. I’m struggling a little with this game, as I don’t think that the Vikings will allow over 200 yards of rushing but they have been inconsistent and Teddy Bridgewater is a doubt I think that the Packers will win this game, although there are still questions about them, and this is me changing my mind, but the Thursday night games have been very one sided so I think the Packers will cover the points as well.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Dan’s Comments: – his one is pretty difficult because of the spread, but I think I’ll go for Packers on this one.

Falcons @ Giants (-3.5)

This is an interesting pairing of teams. The Falcons have been Jekyll & Hyde all season, although the Saints and Bucs are looking bad so I’m not sure how much faith to put in them at all. I’ve seen them a couple of times, the Bengals defence stifled them pretty well in that loss and the Bucs didn’t offer much resistance when the Falcons beat them. Their offence looks good when it is firing but they literally ran out of linemen on Sunday and had to use a tight end as a right tackle for an extended stretch., They lack a pass rush and depth in the middle of the defence although their corners are good. Overall, I’m not convinced by them against competent opposition and their o-line is going to remain a mess. The Giants have been improving all season, and whilst I need to be careful as Thursday night games have flattered several teams this year, I think that Manning is getting to grips with the new offence and looked really good against Washington. Now granted, that was against a defence that got very little pressure and looked horrible in coverage, but I don’t see the Falcons doing much better overall despite their corners. I like the Giants to win this game, and strongly enough that I’ll take whilst giving points..

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dan’s Comments: – Giants absolutely took Washington apart in week 4, while the Falcons were taken apart by the Vikings, so I’m going to go with Giants in this game.

Bills @ Lions (-7.5)

It has taken me for attempts to start writing this game up, which is because I am so confused by the Bills. They have a great defensive line, have played well in spurts, but EJ Manuel has been so inconsistent that they’ve dropped him. I think this is because of how open the division is this year, but I don’t think the Bills are going in the right direction. However, the Lions appear to be as they’ve been more disciplined and are good on defence. They racked up a solid win against the Jets despite Calvin Johnson being quiet and I see them beating the Bills fairly easily. I could be wrong as I’ve only picked one Bills game correctly all season, but I’m going for the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lionss

Dan’s Comments: – Got to be Lions. While they didn’t run away with the Jets, I still think they’ve got enough to go over the Bills.

Bears @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Carolina Panthers lost heavily to a good Ravens team, but the worrying thing for them is that the defence that initially seemed so good is currently ranked twenty-eighth by DVOA and is beginning to show cracks as they are missing some pieces. The o-line is starting to look how many feared it would going into the season, and. I worry about this team going forward. The Bears are a flawed team, that to an extent are going to live and die on the difference between good Cutler and bad Cutler, because he has one of those arms that makes him think he can make every throw. In some games this will work and in others he’ll throw interceptions, but the Bears defence is not one that follows in the traditions of the club. In fairness, they held up pretty well in the run, which was the area of concern for many, but they were shredded by Aaron Rodgers. I’m wary of reading too much into team rankings, as match ups do matter, but there are thirteen places between them by DVOA and I think the Bears will recover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Dan’s Comments: – Two teams who struggled last week, but let’s go with the Bears.

Browns @ Titans (-2.5)

Oh dear, the Titans gave up nearly 500 yards to the Colts last week, and after winning against the Chiefs in week 1, they have lost three straight. They are uncertain at quarterback, and so whilst they have some good looking receivers, they have no one to throw them the ball, yet somehow they’re giving points to the Browns. Mike Pettine has the Browns playing pretty well, their defence is not ranked as highly as I thought they would be, but their offence is doing surprisingly well despite missing some parts and I think they will have too much for the Titans as they come off their bye week.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Dan’s Comments: – Can’t see any further than the Browns against Titans this week

Texans @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This is a really hard game for me to pick. The Cowboys have surprised everyone by playing okay on defence, and running the ball behind a good young offensive line. There is a worry about DeMaroc Murray as although he’s been superb in four games, already racking up 534 yards, he has never played sixteen games, but right now they are doing well. I haven’t got a full read on the Texans. They’re not the most amazing team on either side of the ball, but they find a way to win and they have the best defensive player in the league. I’ll try not to get boring on the subject of JJ Watt, but last week he returned an interception for a touchdown, and did not look like a 3-4 defensive end whilst doing it, as well as racking up nine quarterback hits. I think this could be a close game, but I’m taking the points and going with the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Two in form teams. I can see the Texans D controlling the Cowboys O, so I’ll go for the Texans.

Ravens @ Colts (-3.5)

The Colts have got themselves back on track with two straight wins, but they were against the Jaguars and Titans. When people are making comments about even Trent Richardson scores against the Titans, it is bad for the Titans, but it is also not great if you’re the team that traded a first round pick to get him. I am not convinced by this team, although Andrew Luck is excellent. However, they are facing a Ravens team that steamrollered the Panthers and have looked good for most of the season. The defence is playing well, and the offence is really coming along. I don’t expect Steve Smith Snr, who has been good all year. to be quite as fired up as he was when facing his old team, but I fancy the Ravens to at least cover in this game, if not win.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Dan’s Comments: – I think the Ravens are the obvious choice here, but I just can’t help but thinking the Colts will take it for some reason!

Rams @ Eagles (-7.5)

The Eagles have problems with their offensive line, which they have been working round for most of the season, but it was too much to overcome on Sunday. The 49ers defence did an amazing job on the Eagles offence, and it was only their special teams play and a pick six that kept the Eagles in the game. I wrote last week that I thought they could lose, but they wouldn’t by more than six and I was right. This is a game that I can see them winning, but I’m not sure that they will by eight or more. There is still a lot of talent on the Rams defence that hasn’t clicked yet this season, but in Austin Davis they found a quarterback that moved the ball against the Cowboys, and the Eagles are not good on defence. I think they might do okay in this game coming off a bye, although I might be wary of large lines after last week, but I’m backing the Rams to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Dan’s Comments: – I think the Eagles will have this one pretty easy this week. I’ve not liked much of what I’ve seen of St. Louis so far this year.

Buccaneers @ Saints (-10.5)

Now this is a line to worry about. I’m really pleased that the Bucs proved me wrong, and having said that I couldn’t see where they were going to win a game, they promptly beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They got Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson back on the defensive line, which did much better than against the Falcons, and Mike Glennon gave them better play than McCown at quarterback. The reason that this line bothers me is that both teams are 1-3 and whilst I don’t exactly trust the Bucs, I don’t see why the Saints are giving 10.5 points, even if they are back home. The Saints have not been clicking on offence, and might really be regretting trading Darren Sproles to the Eagles. Their defence, that improved so much last year, seems to be returning to average, with Rob Ryan blitzing a lot and not winning on his gambles. This Saints have struggled this season and I hate the points spread even if they do beat the Bucs, which I’m not convinced they will.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Dan’s Comments: – Another one I’ve struggled with when picking, as I think given the spread it could go either way.

Steelers @ Jaguars (+6.5)

I feel sorry for the Jaguars this week. They’ve played well in stretches, but haven’t been able to put together a whole game, although it does look like there are promising signs that they’ve found their quarterback. The worrying thing for me is that they are ranked thirty-first in defence by DVOA and that is Gus Bradley’s side of the ball. It might be that they can turn it round as the season goes on, and let’s hope they do for the London game, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The Steelers are another Jekyll & Hyde team, alternating wins and losses. They have one the best receivers playing at the moment in Antonio Brown, and have been looking pretty good on offence, but their defence is struggling. It’s looked a bit old at time and they were missing players last week against the Bucs. I really liked what I saw of Ryan Shazier so they’ll be hoping to get him back soon. I think that this is an experienced team who are going to be furious after last week’s result and in the Jaguars, they are playing against a good team to help them get back on track. I might be wrong, but I think this is another big loss for the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comments: – Steelers to bounce back this week. Sorry Jags fans – this is becoming a long season for you!

Caridnals @ Broncos (-7.5)

This is a cracking game, with both teams playing well and coming off a bye. The Cardinals have been excellent on defence, but Carson Palmer is still having problems with a nerve issue in his shoulder and so I’m worried about them on offence. The Broncos are not playing as well as last year on offence, but they don’t need to with the bolstering of their defence during the offseason, and they may well be a better overall team as a result. I think this game is almost impossible to call, I think it will be close but I could see either side winning handily. This pick is coming down to points, and whilst the Broncos are at home, and traditionally have a good home field advantage due to the altitude, I’m wary of the 7.5 number.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Dan’s Comments: – Arizona to continue their winning streak after their Bye last Sunday.

Chiefs @ 49ers (-7.5)

There are times when you should follow your convictions, and my first instinct was to pick the Chiefs last week. I was backing the Brady, Belichik combination on Monday night, which I said was a bad reason to pick a game and so it proved to be. The Chiefs played well on defence, moved the ball on a Patriots defence, which was ranked highly and beat the Patriots convincingly enough that some are question if it is the end of an era in New England. I’ll save talk of that for when I write about the Patriots, but clearly the Chiefs are heading in the right direction. The 49ers did it with defence last week against the Eagles. There still seem to be some issues with their offence, but they did well to overcome their special teams miscues and get a much needed win. I’m really not sure how this one is going, so I am again running away from giving this many points in a game I don’t have a strong opinion on.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Dan’s Comments: – It’s got to be the Chiefs after their fantastic result on this week’s MNF.

Jets @ Chargers (-7.5)

The Jets are currently ranked seventeenth on defence by DVOA, which when you consider their secondary is possibly not that bad, but if your identity as a team is one of defence then it is a problem. There are signs that Geno Smith is making progress, but not fast enough, and there were ugly scenes when the Jets fans starting chanting for Michael Vick. They have only one win and I don’t seem them getting a second this week. I’m not sure if there is a quarterback playing better than Phil Rivers at the moment, who is doing it without a good running game and a defence that is holding its own. I’m a little bit worried about the points, but in this game I’m prepared to give them as the Chargers are a team that I’m 3-1 with across the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – The Chargers are on fire at the minute, and the Jets aren’t making things easy for themselves. San Diego win.

Bengals @ Patriots (-2.5)

I wrote about Patriots line last week and I only backed them as they were on Monday night football. We’ve had too many games now for this to be an aberration, but whilst I still have nagging doubts about picking against them on a nationally televised game I can’t back them in this one. The line might improve, but it seems a mess at the moment, and the skill players can’t get open. The Bengals have looked pretty good on offence despite missing some parts, whilst the defence has looked great even with Burfit missing time with a concussion. I’m worried about jinxing this, but I think the Bengals will win without the aid of a thunderstorm this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Dan’s Comments: – The Patriots are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league this year, and the Bengals are scoring an average of 27 points a game without letting much past them. Easy

Seattle @ Washington (+7.5)

I wrote about how bad the Washington defence against the Giants last week, which actually worries me more than the wobble Kirk Cousins had forcing the issue as he tried to get them back in the game. I don’t think he will be as bad, but I don’t see him coping with the Seahawks defence, even if they don’t have the amazing Seattle crowd helping them. The Seahawks are fresh of a bye and are looking like there are going to go deep again this season, making this a fairly straight forward pick.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dan’s Comments: – I think this one’s got to be the Seahawks. I don’t think Washington have it in them this week.

I feel pretty good about this weeks’ picks, but then I do most weeks. Sadly I’m only picking against Dan twice this week so I’m not sure I’ll be making much ground up on any time soon.