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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

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Tag Archives: Week 6 Picks

2022 Week Six Picks

16 Sunday Oct 2022

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 6 Picks

We’re now far enough into the season that the byes have started, while Dan and I got off to a bad start picking games in week six given that neither of us accounted for Carson Wentz’s 6-0 record on a Thursday Night.

There’s a couple of cracking matchups, including a repeat of the Buffalo Bills taking on the Kansas City Chiefs so we’ll have to see how things look across the rest of the week.

Early Games:

It’s a bit of a mixed slate of early games given that the tight games seem to Bengals visiting the Saints, an AFC South game where who can truly say what the Jaguars will do against the Colts, and the Browns hosting the Patriots. Still, I’m interested to see how the Packers do this week coming off the disappointing London loss to the Giants and our spreadsheet of who we have watched is pointing me to the 49ers @ Falcons that I am looking forward to finding out how they are playing.

49ers @ Falcons (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Patriots @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Jets @ Packers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Colts (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Vikings @ Dolphins (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bengals @ Saints (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Ravens @ Giants (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Buccaneers @ Steelers (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Late Games:

The game of the week, and potentially the regular season, dominates this group of late games as with all due respect to the Panthers, Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks – nearly all eyes will be on the Bills and Chiefs matchup.

Panthers @ Rams (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Cardinals @ Seahawks (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Bills @ Chiefs (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Sunday Night Football:

Cowboys @ Eagles (-4.5)

This is a game likely to come down to the Cowboys defence going up against Eagles offensive line and with perennial Pro Bowl center Jason Kelce having had to come out of the game last week with an ankle injury, it will be interesting to see how they cope against the positively terrifying Micah Parsons. I can see the Eagles winning this one given they are unbeaten, but this line is a bit rich for me under the circumstances.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Monday Night Football

Broncos @ Chargers (-5.5)

I positively hate this line because as dysfunctional as the Bronocs offence has been, their defence has been really good and they’ve only been truly out of one game this season in terms of final score. Meanwhile I don’t trust the Chargers at all, with what seems to be a head coach who hasn’t clearly defined how aggressive he wants to be with analytic decisions, injuries and an offence that seems to hinder as much as help Justin Herbert. I say this not because I’m expecting the Chargers to lose, but this number of points feels rich to me, but it’s not hard to see how the Chargers could run up big winners in this one.

Still, I’m sticking to my mantra of trust the numbers, and whilst this is right in the, ‘we don’t know what to do with the game’ range, they lean Broncos for me so that’s where I’m going… Needless to say I don’t feel comfortable about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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2021 Week Six Picks

17 Sunday Oct 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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London Games, NFL, Week 6 Picks

Week six started with a game that didn’t look that competitive on paper as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travelled to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, and when the Bucs went up 28-7 in the third quarter it certainly looked ominous but in the final twenty minutes the Eagles got some stops on defence and scored a couple of touchdowns to ultimately lose by one score 22-28. Part of the reason that happened was because head coach and play caller Nick Siranni suddenly remembered that running back Miles Sanders could actually run the ball. Previous to that the offence had only revolved around Jalen Hurts running and taking deep shots that seemed to be more effective at getting penalty yards than actual passing completions. The Eagles are not a good team right now, and I would question the way they are trying to run their offence, but there are glimmers of something there.

As for the Bucs, they are looked ominously good on offence for three quarters but seemed to bog down for the final quarter, although to the surprise of no Tom Brady was able to close out the game with a clock killing drive. There will be sterner tests of the injured Bucs’ secondary, but the rush defence was excellent and against even a slightly slower quarterback Shaq Barrett would have had multiple sacks. It may be that the injuries sink the Bucs at some point but right now they are still managing to look like Super Bowl champions thanks to the play of their offence.

So with that said about the Thursday night game let’s turn our eyes to the Sunday matchups.

Early Games:

We get our second and last London game of the season this week, but I’m not sure it’s going to be a great contest. The Jaguars are 0-5 for a reason and Urban Myer really hasn’t convinced in the pros so I find it hard to believe that he will outcoach Brian Flores, even if the Dolphins have really struggled so far this season. I’m hoping for Dan that the Dolphins play better and Tua Tagovailoa gets the start and elevates the team even though the betting lines haven’t moved with Jacoby Brissett as the starter. The sad truth is that right now the Dolphins are ranked only one place higher by the DVOA than the Jaguars and are actually ranked three places lower than the league’s other winless team the Detroit Lions. At this point there might have to be questions about how the draft picks of the recent Dolphins regime is working out even if the process of accumulating them was well done. While the Dolphins shouldn’t be in full panic mode yet, this is probably the first time Flores will be dealing with genuine criticism of his tenure so it will be interesting to see how he and his team react in strange surroundings.

As for the six o’clock games, the oldest rivalry in the NFL is being played again as the Packers visit the Bears, but the matchup of this window must be the LA Chargers visiting the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are coming out of a game where they had to work hard to get the overtime win but where Lamar Jackson completed thirty-seven of forty-three passes for four hundred and forty-two yard and four touchdowns. This doesn’t answer all the questions about Jackson in the passing game as the Colts played him in a particular way, but that was likely his best game as a drop back passer. The Chargers have a different defensive philosophy, but a lot of the excitement is based around the continued development of quarterback Justin Herbert in his second season and this meeting of two 4-1 teams looks to be a great contest that has the potential for real fireworks.

Points from the rest:

  • The Packers have well and truly moved past their bad opening week but had to work hard to beat the Bengals last week and it will be interesting to see how they do against the Bears, where Matt Nagy has a 31-22 overall record but generally gets coverage that sounds like he’s doing a lot worse. That is because the Bears are not really that convincing at 3-2 but let’s see what Justin Fields and the offence can do this week.
  • The Bengals had an okay showing last week, but if they want to build on the winning first quarter of the season, they will need to beat a Lions team who have not looked far away from their first win and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions did get that this week.
  • The Colts looked better last week, with Carson Wentz looking as good as he has for a long time, but they need to rediscover their winning habit and whilst hosting the Texans looks like a good opportunity to do that, the number of points they are laying seems excessive and I can’t back them to cover that kind of line when they are 1-4.
  • I’m not sure what to expect from the Giants, as even when things show some promise, injury gets in the way and it’s hard to see them getting one over the Rams, even if it is a long way from LA to the east coast. However, this is a big line and with Daniel Jones cleared to play I’m just wondering if the Rams will cover this one or if they will be happy to just get the win.
  • Washington are simply not anywhere near the team from last season and whilst the Chiefs are struggling on defence, they has so much more offence than the Football Team that even with this high line I am going to back the Chiefs to get back on track.
  • The Panthers have been struggling in recent weeks and placed running back Christian McCaffery on IR yesterday after he suffered a setback earlier in the week, which explains the four point swing from laying one and a half points to getting them if you look at the consensus number so I have to go for the Vikings.

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Packers @ Bears (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ Lions (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Texans @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Rams @ Giants (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Chiefs @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Vikings @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Late Games:

The best game of the late sets sees the 3-2 Cleveland Browns hosting the 5-0 Cardinals having lost to the Chargers last week. The Browns have beaten the teams they should have but come up short against Chiefs and Chargers. More worryingly the Brown’s injury list is begging to grow. The Cardinals are top ten in all three phases of the game but are on the road without their head coach after Kliff Kingsbury caught Covid-19. I have numbers that contradict each other, but with the Browns at home with their head coach available I’m going to reluctantly back them even though I really don’t have a feel for what is likely to happen in this one other than what looks to be a really good game.

Points on the Rest:

  • I don’t know how the Raiders will react to the Jon Gruden situation, whether they rally round to win one for themselves or struggle with motivation, although I have heard that Derek Carr has really stepped up this week in his leadership role. The Broncos have struggled the last two weeks and the extra half point makes me nervous so whilst my numbers are saying one thing, I’m going to grab the points and hope.
  • The Patriots struggled last week against the Texans, so even though they are getting four and a half points at home, which is pretty incredible given Belichick’s coaching record, I find it hard to believe the Pats will keep up with the Cowboys given how both teams are playing at the moment. I would stay well away from this one if I had the choice as I don’t fancy picking against Belichick by this many points but as I don’t have that option I’m going to nervously back the Cowboys given the Pats are the twentieth ranked team by DVOA and the Cowboys are the second.

Cardinals @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Cowboys @ Patriots (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Sunday Night Football:

Seahawks @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Sunday night game has a completely different feel now that the Seahawks have Russell Wilson out injured and are starting Geno Smith at quarterback. To be fair Smith didn’t exactly look bad when he came into last week’s game, but the Seahawks’ defence is ranked a lowly twenty-fifth right now so it is a lot to ask Smith to come in and maintain the Seahawks current ranking of fifth on offence by DVOA with so little support from the defence. I am not entirely sure I trust the Steelers turnaround on offence after one week, but under the circumstances facing a backup quarterback I’m leaning their way even if I’m not totally convinced.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Monday Night Football

Bills @ Titans (+5.5)

I guess the big question in this game is will the Bills have any kind of let down after the huge win against the Chiefs last week. They are on the road for a second week, this time facing a Tennessee Titans who may have the lead in the AFC South, but who have a 3-2 record and who are ranked twenty-sixth by overall DVOA. The Titans offence has not really clicked this season and the defence continues to struggle, whilst the Bills are the top team by DVOA thanks to the number one ranked defence by DVOA and an offence that is still potent even if Josh Allen’s performance has slipped a little from last year’s amazing efficiency. I feel like with the Bills on the road I could get bitten by this line under the circumstances, but looking at the Titans schedule so far this season I think I still have to back the Bills given the large difference in the DVOA rankings.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Six

14 Thursday Oct 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Baltimore Ravens, Competition Thursday, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, LA Rams, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady, Week 6 Picks

Dan closed the gap to two points in week five of our picks competition but as we turn our attention to game six, which is the first of the season to feature teams on a bye, we also have what looks to be a distinctly one-sided Thursday night game.

Gee:Week 5:  7 – 9Overall:  43 – 37
Dan:Week 5:  10 – 6Overall:  41 – 39

Buccaneers @ Eagles (+6.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are currently ranked sixteenth overall by DVOA, but are undeniably limited on offence despite occasionally flashing glimpses of what they could be. The Eagles did beat the Panthers last week, but you would feel that even with the Buccaneers’ cluster of injuries at corner, that the Eagles’ passing game is not efficient enough for them to get the win. Even Tom Brady dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand is not enough for me to back the Eagles to cover given that the consensus line is +7 and I’ve seen others higher than that. The Eagles could very well make me look like a fool but for now I can’t look past the Bucs in this one, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Survivor Competition

I don’t know how closely Dan was following the game on Sunday as it was happening, but the Patriots were made to work to get their win against the Texans but his plan to pick against the Texans just about held. However, he has transferred his plan to pick against the Jaguars, which I understand except he’s placing more faith in his Dolphins team than I have! That said, the Ravens could have easily lost against the Colts so I can’t be too confident in my own selections. Looking at the teams this week I’ve gone for the Rams against the Giants, even if they are on the road, the Giants have enough injuries and struggles this season to make me think they’ll struggle to keep up with the Rams.

Current Score

Gee: 4
Dan: 3

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Rams
Dan:    Dolphins

Bold Prediction of the Week

I was really struggling for a bold prediction this week, but I was eventually allowed to back the Bears to cover getting four and a half points as they host the Packers on Sunday.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Six Picks

18 Sunday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Covid-19, NFL, Week 6 Picks

So thanks to the schedule changes this week, competition Thursday has merged into Sunday picks and maybe the change up in schedule will breathe life into a season where I’m four games behind evens and a whopping eleven points behind Dan. First things first though, I’ll run through the late things from Thursday and then roll into games.

Gee:Week 5:  7 – 8Overall:  35 – 43
Dan:Week 5:  9 – 6Overall:  46 – 32

Survivor Competition

Not content with bad picks, I jinxed the Chiefs into a loss against the Raiders last week so Dan is now evens with me in this competition and I’ve wasted the Chiefs so we shall have to see how things go. I am really struggling to have a strong feeling on this one while Dan is still riding the whoever is playing the Jets strategy, but I’m not going to be scared off by last week’s mishap and I have been very impressed with the Ravens so even if they are on the road that’s where I am going.

Current Score

Gee: 3
Dan: 3

Week 6 Selection:

Gee:     Ravens
Dan:    Dolphins

Bold Prediction of the Week

My not very bold but I was really struggling prediction this week is that the Giants are going to get their first win of the season this week against Washington.

Early Games:

The split between the early and late games is even more lopsided than usual, but the pick of the early games for me is the divisional clash between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers. After the Steelers’ re-arranged non-resting bye in week four caused by the Titans Covid-19 outbreak, the Steelers maintained their unbeaten start to the season against the Eagles, but this week’s game is probably the Steelers’ sternest test so far. That said, Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield is nursing a shoulder injury and so we don’t know how well the Browns offense will play. The Browns will be pitting their fourth in the league by DVOA rushing attack against the Steeler’s league leading by DVOA rush defense and with Mayfield’s health being a questions I am leaning towards the Steelers in this one.

The other really interesting game for me sees the 3-2 Carolina Panthers hosting the 4-1 Chicago Bears. This is a game that will see Chicago’s strong defense led by Khalil Mack try to keep them close enough that an offence now helmed by journeyman if Super Bowl winning quarterback Nick Foles can do enough to win. The Panthers already seem to be building something in Matt Rhule’s first season as head coach and whilst I don’t have a strong lean in this game, I think the matchup of the Bears’ defense against quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and the Panther’s top ten offence should make for a fascinating game.

As for the rest of the early games:

  • I don’t know what kind of reaction the Falcons will have with Raheem Morris taking overt as head coach, but it feels like there are structural problems at the franchise, where as the Vikings have something to build on even if a 1-4 start does not inspire confidence
  • The Colts are 3-2 but there have been rumblings about the form of Philip Rivers. I don’t see them having a problem with the Bengals this week, but I have been wrong a lot this year and I’d love to see some signs of progress from the Bengals after last week.
  • I am not wholly sure what will happen with the Patriots hosting the Broncos given more players have gone on the Covid list for the Patriots and a Denver coach has also tested positive. The Patriots in theory should win this one but given all that has happened for both teams in the last week I would not rely on anything too much.
  • I am not sure what the Lions have done to be laying points on the road against the Jaguars. Both teams’ defenses are ranked in the thirties by DVOA and the stand out unit is the Jaguars offence so whilst I can see this being a close game and maybe the Lions do win, to win by four seems a little off to me.
  • The Houston Texans may have a got a win last week, but the Tennessee Titans came roaring back from their Covid-19 situation with a big win against the Bills and I have a feeling will do well against the Texans.
  • The whole situation with Washington’s quarterbacks feels odd, but this week they must take on the New York Giants. It’s strange to see the teams right next to each other in overall DVOA when Washington’s defense is top five, but I’m leaning towards the Giants and will be watching this game out of curiosity to see what is going on for myself.
  • The Ravens travel to Philadelphia looking for another win and the line reflects the problems the Eagles have had at the start of the season. I don’t see much changing for the Eagles in this one but there’s always the chance for a surprise.

Falcons @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bears @ Panthers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Bengals @ Colts (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Browns @ Steelers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Broncos @ Patriots (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Lions @ Jaguars (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Texans @ Titans (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Washington @ Giants (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Ravens @ Eagles (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Late Games:

The pick of the late games is the Green Bay Packers taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but with no home crowd to make life difficult for the Packers offence I have a feeling that Aaron Rodgers is still going to be okay against a Buccaneers’ defense who ranks second in the league by DVOA. It wouldn’t surprise me if this was competitive, but with Rodgers operating so well in his second year of running Matt LaFleur’s offence I think the Packers are the more likely to win, especially given the penalties that the Bucs can give away.

The Jets face a Dolphins team who are coming off scoring forty-three points in a big win against the 49ers last week and whilst I think it is unlikely the Dolphins repeat that feat, the Jets have given no indication that they can spring a surprise in this one. You cannot rule it out completely given that this is a divisional game, but with a dearth of positives to take from their first five games I think it is a pretty small chance for the Jets on the road in Miami.

Jets @ Dolphins (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Packers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Rams @ 49ers (+3.5)

This is an odd game for the LA Rams who seem to have been travelling back and forth across the country in the opening five weeks and who are taking on a 49ers team beset by injuries. This divisional game still has the capacity to spring a surprise as the 49ers have been competitive in every game bar the last one, but they also have played four teams who currently have losing records and if the Rams cannot repeat the Dolphins success, you would expect their fourth ranked by DVOA offence to have enough for them to run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Monday Night Football

Chiefs @ Bills (+3.5)

Once again, we are treated to two Monday night games and this looks like a tasty matchup between the Bills and the Chiefs. The Bills finally played the Titans on Tuesday having had several postponements, but it can’t have made preparations easy and they had a bad loss. The worrying thing is how many problems quarterback Josh Allen had against zone coverage and it will be interesting to see what the Chiefs’ defense can do a week after their loss to the Raiders. Last week was the Chiefs’ only loss in fourteen games dating back to last season and including the playoffs so it is certainly not time to panic, but neither team will want to lose two in a row and this could well be the matchup of the week if both teams can bring their A game. I think you would always back the team with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but I certainly feel like the Bills could be able to compete at home in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Cardinals @ Cowboys (+2.5)

Week six finishes with an intriguing game that sees Andy Dalton get his first start for the Dallas Cowboys after Dak Prescott’s gruesome displaced ankle fracture last week. With the experience Dalton has the Cowboys probably have the best backup quarterback in the league, but if Dak playing brilliantly was having issues keeping the Cowboys’ in games thanks to their awful defense, I do wonder if Dalton will be able to do the same. However, although the Cardinals beat the Jets comfortably on the road last week, this is their third game in a row on the road and with losses to the Panthers and Lions so far this season I do wonder if this game might be closer than the line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Six Picks

13 Sunday Oct 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 6 Picks

Apart from work eating my time, I’ve also had a somewhat terrifying memory stick failure so whilst I have rescued over 30 000 words of a novel and pretty much all of my files – I am massively behind so I’m putting up our picks and trivia and will have to try to find time to get back on an even keel during the upcoming week.

‘I’m looking at Chicago who, you will recall have retired the most jerseys (14) but what number did Walter Peyton wear so proudly for the Bears. 2 points available here.’

For once I’m feeling confident about the basic part of the trivia competition because I can see in my mind Peyton running the ball wearing number 34 – although it would be a bit embarrassing if I’m misremembering. I’m still lost on the theme though as I can’t make anything fit.

‘Well, I know the answer to this week’s question is 34 – I remember seeing hundreds of people wearing his Jersey when we went to see the Vikings get heated by the Bears in Chicago almost exactly 10 years ago (sorry Dad!).

But I’m still none the wiser when it comes to the theme. My guess this week is “Things which have nothing to do with each other whatsoever”.’

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-11.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Seahawks @ Browns (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Texans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Washington @ Dolphins (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Eagles @ Vikings (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Saints @ Jaguars (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Falcons @ Cardinals (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Cowboys @ Jets (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Titans @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Broncos

Steelers @ Chargers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Lions @ Packers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Six

10 Thursday Oct 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 6 Picks

A losing week sees me did back to .500 but holding a narrow two point lead on Dan’s Dad, but there is still plenty of time for changes and Dan is not out of it, although he will be hoping not to make it a third week in a row scoring only six points.

Gee: Week 5   7-8 Overall   39-39
Dan’s Dad: Week 5   9-6 Overall   37-41
Dan: Week 5   6-9 Overall   34-43

Giants @ Patriots (-16.5)

You should never say never, but I have a feeling that tonight’s Thursday night game won’t live up to the previous two as we see the New England Patriots host a New Your Giants team who got something of a reality check last Sunday. In Daniel Jones the Giants may well have a quarterback for the future, but there are still a lot of problems with the rest of their roster and this is obviously not an easy game. The unbeaten Patriots have been ominously good again this season and even though their offence has not looked at its best, and Tom Brady is beginning to look like a forty-two quarterback, it stills ranks in the top ten by DVOA. Even more scary is the Patriots stellar defence that ranks number one by DVOA, which I think is going to limit a rookie quarterback quite easily. This number of points is obviously going to make me pause but given the Pats have beaten several lines like this already this season, I can’t quite bring myself to pick the Giants. I could look very foolish tomorrow.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Week 6 Trivia

‘With the season now 5 weeks old, and the bye weeks started, the only things of which I’m certain is that the Picks game is unpredictable, and that Dan and Gee will continue to overthink my devious questions.

It was pleasing that The Dolphins didn’t lose thanks to being on a bye but Dan did wonder what the spread on them would have been for the bye. The Vikings returned to form at the Giants but sadly the Bengals did less well, going down against the Cardinals. Oh well, there’s a long way to go yet.

Right onto this week’s devious question which concerned the Carolina Panthers and asked How many rushing yards did DeShaun Foster run in the 2002 regular season?

Well, I do have a conscience and having set the question I did feel a little guilty as I heard the Random Number Generators being dusted off.

Why? Well while DeShaun Foster was expected to be the elite running back for the Panthers, but never started a regular season game due to injuries. So the answer was a big fat Zero and unsurprisingly both Dan and Gee got the same result.

Yet again we have no sign of either spotting the theme. Better luck in Week 6.

Guilt has kicked in and I’d expect to see 2 correct answers this week where I’m looking at Chicago who, you will recall have retired the most jerseys (14) but what number did Walter Peyton wear so proudly for the Bears. 2 points available here.’

2018 Week Six Picks

14 Sunday Oct 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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So let’s hope I can do a little better this week than the last one, we shall see, but first the proof that Dan’s dad is doing so much better at setting trivia questions that we are at answering them.

‘I don’t remember asking any questions so far about College Football yet its popularity is huge. Just this once I will allow the use of Google just this once:

Which college has produced the most Hall of Famers in pro football?

OK so here comes the promised Week 6 BONUS and this one is for 2 points so we can get the scoreboard ticking:

Who holds the in-game record all time FG distance and what is it?’

Okay, so this is a pair of interesting questions. I have a couple of theories on the first one, I think Miami Hurricanes have a lot because of their history on defence, and USC have a bunch as well but I think the college with the most is actually not one you might think of now because Notre Dame used to be huge as a football team (I’ve heard this thanks to listening to Tony Kornheiser) so that’s what I’m nervously going for.

The kicking thing is going to drive me round the bend whilst Dan is obsessed with it so think he’s going to beat me but my guess, and it is a shot in the dark, is Sebastian Janikowski but it’s a guess… Let’s say sixty-four yards as Gano’s last week was sixty-three.

‘I’m taking a decent lead here in the Trivia after a slow start!

So question 1, I am stuck on. I don’t watch and don’t follow college football, so I’m going to go with Texas A&M as one of the only ones I can name off the top of my head!

And for question 2, I think dad’s snookered himself here, because I think Graham Gano’s kick was the joint longest as it goes! So I’ll say along with him, Adam Vinatieri, and 63 yards.’

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is a strange game in that the Atlanta Falcons are really struggling as the injuries reached a critical mass early, particularly on defence and so whilst the offence is ranked eleventh, they haven’t been able to overcome the problems on defence. This week they welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming off a bye but they were last been seen getting dismantled by the Chicago Bears. They are returning with Jameis Winston as the starter and a defence that ranks dead last in the league by DVOA. The up and down nature of the Bucs play doesn’t inspire confidence but neither does the Falcons, so how do you pick? The two teams are ranked next to each other and whilst the Falcons are at home and do have a better quarterback, the extra half point just makes me worry yet I can’t find it in myself to put my trust in the Buccaneers. I could be really wrong on this.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

‘Difficult pick straight off the bat here. I’ll go with Atlanta as I think they’ve got enough to win this one, especially with Home advantage.’

Bills @ Texans (-7.5)

This line makes me nervous as the Texans have not exactly been convincing. Bill O’Brien failed to co-ordinate a lot of points in the red zone last week and got Deshaun Watson hit too much and his defence, whilst looking good in the front seven has problems in coverage. This week they welcome a Bills team who compete and have somehow managed to win two games despite the deficiencies in their roster and this is making this game and absolute nightmare to pick. I think the Texans are more likely to win than not, but the Bills have twice pulled an upset and the fact that the Texans need to win by eight points to cover is definitely worrying me. In the end I can’t quite back the Texans to do that, but I could look very silly by the end of this evening.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

‘The Bills have looked a different team to that of the first couple of weeks of the year. That being said, the Texans look good too, but given the size of the spread, I’ll go with Buffalo.’

Bears @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The good news for the Miami Dolphins is that Laremy Tunsil has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to play against the Chicage Bears. The bad news is that the Bears defence is currently ranked first in the league by DVOA and Khalil Mack has been an MVP candidate through the first four weeks of the season. Coming off their bye the Bears will be rested and looking to build on the offensive performance of their last game where Mitch Trubisky threw for six touchdowns. This is not the team that the Dolphins will exactly have chosen to try to arrest their two game losing streak against, but it’s not the worst either. The points at home are tempting but the injuries to the Dolphins worry me and with Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury and the Bears having a week to consolidate on the best performance by Trubisky so far I’m plumping for the Bears.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Even with the possibility of no Tannerhill, leaving us open to the return of Brock Osweiler…!’

Steelers @ Bengals (-2.5)

I’m really not sure about this game. The Bengals have scraped several wins this season and I’m still waiting to see how the Bengals offence holds up minus Tyler Eifert long term and whether the defence can really solidify. They host a Steelers team who got a good win against the Falcons last week and who have generally had the better of the Bengals in this bitter rivalry. The offence is top ten by DVOA and the defence looked better last week and given the history of this game I am going to make the emotional hedge of backing the Steelers and hoping to be proven wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

‘The Steelers are a bit of a mess at the minute… and if the Bengals can play how they did for the second half of last week, they should do this fairly easily.’

Chargers @ Browns (+0.5)

This should be an entertaining game as the LA Chargers and their third ranked offence by DVOA travel to face a two win Browns team and their second ranked by DVOA defence. I can see why Hue Jackson is trying to keep his team grounded but it’s just good to see the long suffering Cleveland fans excited about their quarterback. This is not an easy journey for the Chargers who seem to specialise in close games but are traveling cross country to play an early game and in front of an energised stadium I’m tempted by the Browns but there is a huge gap between them in rankings and Philip Rivers just has me backing the Chargers. I think…

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Browns

‘They’ve kept it close all season in Cleveland. I think they’ll win this week.’

Colts @ Jets (-2.5)

This is a strange game for me to pick as the New York Jets have been up and down all season and last week rookie Sam Darnold throwing three touchdowns as the Jets beat the Broncos. This week they face an Indianapolis Colts team coming off a long week following their Thursday night loss to the Patriots. Andrew Luck continues to look good as the Colts continue to compete every week and have several times made the games closer than the scores might suggest. As a consequence, I’m finding this one a little hard to pick but with the Jets at home and only needing a field goal to win I’m going for the Jets and let’s see how I do.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘This is close. Tough pick…. I think I’m going to go with New York purely because they’ve got the home advantage.’

Seahawks @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks may not have got back to winning ways at home last week, but they made the LA Rams really work for their victory and are definitely beginning to look like they are establishing Pete Carroll’s old template of tough defence and running the ball. This may not be your legion of boom defence but I like them going against an Oakland Raiders team who have not looked good this season and who look slow on defence. I could be wrong, particularly as the fact that this game is the first in London this year throws the home/road situation into flux, but I just fancy the Seahawks to keep themselves in the playoff mix with a win this week.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

‘Unfortunately for the Raiders, I think they’re going to go 0-2 at Wembley here. I’m going for the Seahawks, but as with all of the Wembley games, it really could go either way.’

Cardinals @ Vikings (-10.5)

The Minnesota Vikings got back to winning ways last week and now host an Arizona Cardinals team who got their own first win. In fact the Cardinals have a top ten defence by DVOA and have quietly only lost the two games before that by two and three points. I don’t think they can suddenly turn the Vikings over on the road but this is too many points for a team that are still righting themselves after a difficult start, even if they do have a genuine home advantage.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

‘The Vikings will win this one, but I don’t think it’ll be by more thank 10.5 points, so I’ll go with the Cards.’

Panthers @ Washington (-1.5)

In something of a theme for this week I am really unsure about this game. We last saw Washington getting thrashed by a New Orleans Saints offence that seemed to have exactly the right mix of deception and skill on offence to expose their defence. It was bad enough that Josh Norman got sat but the Panthers are a different team on offence and this season have a surprisingly lowly rated defence. They had a tough time last week, needing a sixty-three yard field goal to beat the struggling Giants and so I really have no idea on what I can rely on in this game. That said I have more faith in what Norv Turner and Cam Newton are building on offence and with Thomas Davis coming back from a PED suspension for the defence I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

‘Hmmm… I really don’t know which way to go here… I think I’m going to call it as a Panthers win, but I don’t feel confident about it.’

Rams @ Broncos (+6.5)

So having had a tough time on the road in Seattle, the LA Rams now roll into Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Seahawks demonstrated a formula for beating the Rams, even if they couldn’t pull off the upset and the Broncos actually have the number one ranked rush attack by DVOA so they have half of the Seahawk’s formula down. The problem is that this is not the Denver defence of recent seasons and can Von Miller get enough pressure to disrupt the rolling Rams offence? The Rams seemed to cope with two of their starting receivers leaving the game with concussions last week but both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp have cleared concussion protocol and will play this week. The question is can they beat this big line, which they have done four times already this season, but on the road in Denver I do wonder if they might come unstuck but given that this pits the league’s third ranked team in points scored per game versus the twenty-second ranked team in points allowed per game, I’m going to back the Rams.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

‘Rams are going to continue their unbeaten run this week, going 6-0 against the Broncos.’

Jaguars @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys lost last week in overtime and this week they welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team whose third ranked defence by DVOA has the players to make life very difficult for a static offence who asks its receivers to win one on one matchups and whose offensive line and run game are not dominating as they have in recent years. What gives them a chance however is that Blake Bortles has pretty much been peak Bortles this year, with up and down performances that can’t be helped by Leonard Fournette’s injuries. I think the Jaguars are the better team but coming off a difficult road loss to the Chiefs but I do wonder if a second road game might suffer the same problem yet I can’t quite bring myself to back the Cowboys pulling off the upset despite getting points at home.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

‘Another close one, but I think the Cowboys will do this. Zeke’s back on form so I think he’ll have a good one this week.’

Ravens @ Titans (+2.5)

So the Tennessee Titans are back home this week and facing a Baltimore Ravens team having lost on the road to the Buffalo Bills the week before. Last week I argued that the Titans’ offence looked to have turned a corner but that didn’t hold true and this week they face a Ravens’ defence that are top five in the league by DVOA, which they have paired with a mid-ranked offence and slightly lower special teams ranking than usual. The Ravens may have lost to the Cleveland Browns last week, but they are used to the scrappy games the Titans have been playing all season but there are six home underdogs this week and so far I have backed the road favourite in each game. I have a feeling not all of those are going to come in and the Titans look to be the best bet to cover for me so I’m going to grab them at home and hope…

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

‘Other than the Dolphins game in week one, Tennessee sound like they’re doing some good things this year. I’ll go for them this week against Baltimore.’

Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am really excited about this matchup that pits the Andy Reid’s high flying unbeaten team against a Patriots that turned the corner at the beginning of October and who have won two straight pretty convincingly whilst scoring thirty-eight points. They need to do this given that their defence ranks nineteenth by DVOA but that is positively stratospheric compared to the Chiefs’ ranking of twenty-eighth. Something has to give and it just feels more likely that the Chiefs will end up 5-1 than the Patriots falling back to 3-3 despite the fact that the Chiefs won this very game last season, although that was in week one and the Patriots went on to the Super Bowl. I’m backing Brady and Belichick with revenge on the mind although I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

‘Wow, this should be a good one. Unfortunately for Kansas (and everyone fighting to keep up in the AFC East!) I think they’re going to get their first loss this week. I’m calling Patriots.’

49ers @ Packers (-9.5)

This game looked a very different fixture when the TV games were selected, but whilst CJ Beathard has not been a terrible replacement quarterback for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, it is hard to see the 49ers getting much on the road against the Packers. The question though is can they keep this game to within ten and that is trickier as Aaron Rodgers has been pretty unimpressed with how the offence has been playing as he fights the knee injury that has hobbled him for most of the season. The Packers are coming off a loss to the Detroit Packers, who interestingly now have three straight wins over the Packers but we have to go back to 2015 for the last time these two team faced each other and 2012 for the 49ers to be making a trip to Lambeau Field. A big part of last week’s Packers loss was Mason Crosby missing four field goal attempts and an extra point and that is likely to be on his mind in this nationally televised game. I’m really not sure how the Packers are going to look this week and whilst I expect them to win, the ten points require this feels like too many even if they are at home. I’m going back and forth but I’ve kept getting bitten by big lines this season but the 49ers just lost by ten points to the Cardinals at home and so I’m risking the Packers.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

‘I just cant back the Packers by 10 points here. It’s too much of a big spread, even with the 49ers not being great.’

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 6

11 Thursday Oct 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 6 Picks

Well, I managed to drop another point back in the trivia competition with Dan and just about managed to stay ahead of him in the picks competition whilst slipping back into a losing overall record. Time to re-evaluate my process but just because I was wrong doesn’t necessarily mean the picks were.

Gee:     Week 5   4-11              Overall   38-40
Dan:    Week 5   7-8                Overall   36-42

Eagles @ Giants (+2.5)

So the week six Thursday night game pits two divisional foes against each and both are struggling for different reasons. The Giants offence continues to struggle with Eli Manning unable to turnaround his form of recent seasons despite the moves over the summer and the defence currently ranks down in the twenties by DVOA. The Eagles were struggling with injuries even before they lost Jay Ajayi for the season with an ACL tear and whilst their defence is holding in with a ranking of eleventh by DVOA, the offence has not found a rhythm and is currently ranked twenty-fourth.

My first instinct is that the Eagles will find a way to win this game but what makes me hesitate is that the Giants put a very credible effort up against the Panthers, are at home on a Thursday night, and are getting points. I think this game is too important for the Eagles to lose having already lost two straight and with them only needing a field goal to cover I’m going to back them on the road, but with the way things have been going I would hardly be surprised if the Giants managed to cover or win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Eagles

Week 6 Trivia

‘In Week 5 I asked who kicked the longest field goal of the 2017/18 season.

Good answers all round, I can see the logic in both but this time the point goes to Dan.

Strangely when Panthers’ Graham Gano slotted a 63yd game winning FG against the Giants in Week 5 he eclipsed last season’s best kick and notched one of the longest in history (in a game NOT practice). I feel a BONUS question coming on!

Eyes down for Week 6 then:

I don’t remember asking any questions so far about College Football yet its popularity is huge. Just this once I will allow the use of Google, just this once:

Which college has produced the most Hall of Famers in pro football?

OK so here comes the promised Week 6 BONUS and this one is for 2 points so we can get the scoreboard ticking:

Who holds the in-game record all time FG distance and what is it?’

Week Six Picks

15 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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So thanks to me being away this weekend, I’m suffering from a bit of a time crunch so I’m trying something for this week only, and will be writing a sentence for each game and giving you our picks, and if you’re seeing this the plan worked.

Dolphins @ Falcons (-11.5)

The Miami Dolphins take their okay defence and misfiring offence on the road to face the Falcons in Atlanta and it feels like the only question is whether this is too many points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bears @ Ravens (-7.5)

I’m not convinced that the Baltimore Ravens can cover these points just because they put up points against a bad Raiders defence last week and so I’m backing the Chicago Bears to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Browns @ Texans (-9.5)

The Houston Texans have lost two key players on defence whilst finding a quarterback so it feels like they will be in a lot of shoot outs for the rest of the season and this is a lot of points to cover, but it is against the Cleveland Browns at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Lions @ Saints (-4.5)

This looks to be a cracking game as the Detroit Lions take their top ten ranked defence to face Drew Brees in the Super Dome and I’m really not sure who is going to win so I’ll grab the points in what feels like a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Packers @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Green Bay Packers will always have a chance with Aaron Rodger as their quarterback despite their injuries, but Minnesota Vikings are a tough team even if they don’t have their starting quarterback so this is a pick that is all about getting a chance to pick a home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The New England Patriots travel with their high flying offence and a defence that is ranked last in the NFL by DVOA to face the New York Jets who have earned more respect than this line is giving them.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

49ers @ Washington (-9.5)

After their opening week loss to the Panthers the San Francisco 49ers have not lost by more than three points and so this line feels a little high even if Washington have been playing well in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Rams @ Jaguars (-2.5)

This game sees two teams with winning records that you might not have predicted before the season face each other with the LA Rams improved offence taking on a Jacksonville Jaguars defence that is ranked first in the league by DVOA and so despite my worries over their offence I’m backing the Jags.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I’m really not convinced that the addition of Adrian Peterson to the Arizona Cardinals will help solve their offensive problem s and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers really need to get themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Steelers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offence has not flowed properly this season, and I’m just not sure that a trip to Arrowhead stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs is the game for them to turn things around.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Raiders (-6.5)

There’s talk that the Oakland Raiders will have Derek Carr back despite only being a week removed from fracturing the transverse process in his back, but the LA Chargers have got their first win of the season and have kept nearly all of their games closer than this.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Giants @ Broncos (-12.5)

The New York Giants are falling apart and travelling to Denver to face the Broncos defence with mass injuries in your receiver group does not look like a formula for success.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Colts @ Titans (-3.5)

This is a game that the Tennessee Titans have to win to get things back on track having lost badly to the Texans and then followed that up by losing a winnable game against the Dolphins, but the Indianapolis Colts are the second worst team in the NFL by DVOA so they stand a good chance.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:           Colts

Week Six Picks

16 Sunday Oct 2016

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So last week saw an improvement in both our picks as Dan narrowed the gap between us, and then we both promptly got the Thursday night game wrong so I’m not exactly feel confident as we head into today’s games. I am going to try not to say the points make me nervous in every game, but I do not like the lines at all this week.

Gee:      Week 5   7-7                       Overall   34-43
Dan:      Week 5   9-5                       Overall   31-46

49ers @ Bills (-7.5)

The 49ers are starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback this week on the road, but I’m not sure that this is going to do much for the team overall considering the number of problems across their roster. The Bills have won three straight, and with LeSean McCoy going up against the twenty-third ranked rush defence by DVOA, I’m going to back them to continue this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Jaguars @ Bears (-2.5)

The Jaguars are coming off a bye having got their first win of the season in London, but they need to kick on if they are to rescue their season. The Bears also only have one win, and pushed the Colts late in Indianapolis, but whilst I don’t have a lot of confidence in either team, I am going to back what looks like the more talented roster right now.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Bengals @ Patriots (-9.5)

There is a lot of work to do in Cincinnati and unfortunately the Bengals are on the road again as the start of the season certainly hasn’t been conducive to the number of changed parts they have on offence. I am at the stage where I am just hoping for a competitive performance, but this is the wrong team to be facing with the struggles they are having. I hope to be proved wrong but I don’t think they will cover even this spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Browns @ Titans (-6.5)

The Browns travel to Tennessee looking for their first win, and I’m not sure that it is coming on the road and likely not to a team who just beat the Dolphins pretty convincingly. The Titans defence continues to stay in the top ten, and whilst they are limited in the passing game on offence, I think they have enough to cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Rams @ Lions (-3.5)

I really don’t know how to pick this one as the Rams have failed at all to convince on offence whilst doing enough on defence to go 3-2. Meanwhile the Lions have looked good on offence for stretches, but have had problems on defence. They are even next to each other in the Football Outsiders rankings and I really feel like I am pulling one out at random so I will back the team with the quarterback I trust more playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Steelers @ Dolphins (+7.5)

The Steelers roll into Miami and I only see this going one way. This could mean that the Steelers lay an egg, and nothing would please me more than for the Steelers to lose and Dan see his team win, but I think this is going to be a hard watch for him.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Panthers @ Saints (+2.5)

One of these teams has to win and I’m just not sure which. The Panthers have really been struggling on offence whilst the defence has slipped from their outstanding standard of last year. Drew Brees will do Drew Brees things, particularly against this retooled Panthers’ secondary, but the Saint’s defence is awful. This feels like a pick based on last year, but with possibly Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart returning I will back the Panthers to get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Ravens @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants are not functioning well on either side of the ball at the moment, whilst the Ravens are coming of a two game losing streak. The offence has not played well, and we will have to see what effect firing the offensive coordinator has, but I have more faith in the Ravens playing a close game as it is what they do and I am still not sure how they didn’t beat Washington last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Eagles @ Washington (+1.5)

Washington have turned around a bad start to the season by winning their last three games, and they welcome an Eagles team who saw the first rookie type play from Carson Wentz last week. Still, at 3-1 the Eagles still have had a good start to the season and I have a feeling they will get things back on track this week as I think they are the better team, which is backed by their standings by DVOA

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Chiefs @ Raiders (-1.5)

The Raiders have won a lot of close games and people are questioning if this is sustainable, but they have also won three games on the road, which is a definite improvement for a team who had not travelled well in recent years. The Chargers found a new way to lose to them last week, but after Thursday night’s win over the Broncos, the Charger have confirmed they are a better team than their record might suggest. The Chiefs are struggling on offence and facing the Raiders defence should certainly help. They are also coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has a great record coming off the bye, but I have a bit more faith in the Raiders’ ability to generate the points they need this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Falcons @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I think this should be a cracking game as the Falcons excellent offence meets the number one defence by DVOA in Seattle. That said, it is a pretty brutal road trip to have to go to Denver to play the Broncos then go to Seattle to face the Seahawks. I actually think that Seattle will win the game, but I think it will be closer than seven points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Cowboys @ Packers (-4.5)

The Cowboys excellent run offence meets the Packers excellent run defence in what looks to be a fascinating matchup. The Cowboys defence had a good day against the Bengals, and I was really impressed with Morris Claiborne but they are not facing a line with the protection issues that the Bengals have had this season. The Packers’ offence showed in the first half what it was capable of, but things haven’t quite clicked through a whole game. I think this will be close than the line suggests and with Dak Prescott hardly ever turning the ball over I think the Cowboys will at least keep this closer than five points..

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Colts @ Texans (-3.5)

The Colts have not looked good this season, but they have the connection between Andrew Luck and TY Hilton, whereas the Texans have lost JJ Watt for the season and are ranked dead last in offence by DVOA. There may only be four places between them in their overall DVOA ranking, but the actual percentage is nearly twice as bad for the Texans and so I am worriedly backing the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jets @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals might have found a bit of a template for themselves last week as they rode David Johnson for one hundred and fifty-seven yards on the ground and should be getting Carson Palmer back this week. If they can keep the running game going against a Jets team who are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball then they should run out easy winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

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