So last week saw an improvement in both our picks as Dan narrowed the gap between us, and then we both promptly got the Thursday night game wrong so I’m not exactly feel confident as we head into today’s games. I am going to try not to say the points make me nervous in every game, but I do not like the lines at all this week.

Gee:      Week 5   7-7                       Overall   34-43
Dan:      Week 5   9-5                       Overall   31-46

49ers @ Bills (-7.5)

The 49ers are starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback this week on the road, but I’m not sure that this is going to do much for the team overall considering the number of problems across their roster. The Bills have won three straight, and with LeSean McCoy going up against the twenty-third ranked rush defence by DVOA, I’m going to back them to continue this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Jaguars @ Bears (-2.5)

The Jaguars are coming off a bye having got their first win of the season in London, but they need to kick on if they are to rescue their season. The Bears also only have one win, and pushed the Colts late in Indianapolis, but whilst I don’t have a lot of confidence in either team, I am going to back what looks like the more talented roster right now.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Bengals @ Patriots (-9.5)

There is a lot of work to do in Cincinnati and unfortunately the Bengals are on the road again as the start of the season certainly hasn’t been conducive to the number of changed parts they have on offence. I am at the stage where I am just hoping for a competitive performance, but this is the wrong team to be facing with the struggles they are having. I hope to be proved wrong but I don’t think they will cover even this spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Browns @ Titans (-6.5)

The Browns travel to Tennessee looking for their first win, and I’m not sure that it is coming on the road and likely not to a team who just beat the Dolphins pretty convincingly. The Titans defence continues to stay in the top ten, and whilst they are limited in the passing game on offence, I think they have enough to cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Rams @ Lions (-3.5)

I really don’t know how to pick this one as the Rams have failed at all to convince on offence whilst doing enough on defence to go 3-2. Meanwhile the Lions have looked good on offence for stretches, but have had problems on defence. They are even next to each other in the Football Outsiders rankings and I really feel like I am pulling one out at random so I will back the team with the quarterback I trust more playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Steelers @ Dolphins (+7.5)

The Steelers roll into Miami and I only see this going one way. This could mean that the Steelers lay an egg, and nothing would please me more than for the Steelers to lose and Dan see his team win, but I think this is going to be a hard watch for him.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Panthers @ Saints (+2.5)

One of these teams has to win and I’m just not sure which. The Panthers have really been struggling on offence whilst the defence has slipped from their outstanding standard of last year. Drew Brees will do Drew Brees things, particularly against this retooled Panthers’ secondary, but the Saint’s defence is awful. This feels like a pick based on last year, but with possibly Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart returning I will back the Panthers to get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Ravens @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants are not functioning well on either side of the ball at the moment, whilst the Ravens are coming of a two game losing streak. The offence has not played well, and we will have to see what effect firing the offensive coordinator has, but I have more faith in the Ravens playing a close game as it is what they do and I am still not sure how they didn’t beat Washington last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Eagles @ Washington (+1.5)

Washington have turned around a bad start to the season by winning their last three games, and they welcome an Eagles team who saw the first rookie type play from Carson Wentz last week. Still, at 3-1 the Eagles still have had a good start to the season and I have a feeling they will get things back on track this week as I think they are the better team, which is backed by their standings by DVOA

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Chiefs @ Raiders (-1.5)

The Raiders have won a lot of close games and people are questioning if this is sustainable, but they have also won three games on the road, which is a definite improvement for a team who had not travelled well in recent years. The Chargers found a new way to lose to them last week, but after Thursday night’s win over the Broncos, the Charger have confirmed they are a better team than their record might suggest. The Chiefs are struggling on offence and facing the Raiders defence should certainly help. They are also coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has a great record coming off the bye, but I have a bit more faith in the Raiders’ ability to generate the points they need this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Falcons @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I think this should be a cracking game as the Falcons excellent offence meets the number one defence by DVOA in Seattle. That said, it is a pretty brutal road trip to have to go to Denver to play the Broncos then go to Seattle to face the Seahawks. I actually think that Seattle will win the game, but I think it will be closer than seven points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Cowboys @ Packers (-4.5)

The Cowboys excellent run offence meets the Packers excellent run defence in what looks to be a fascinating matchup. The Cowboys defence had a good day against the Bengals, and I was really impressed with Morris Claiborne but they are not facing a line with the protection issues that the Bengals have had this season. The Packers’ offence showed in the first half what it was capable of, but things haven’t quite clicked through a whole game. I think this will be close than the line suggests and with Dak Prescott hardly ever turning the ball over I think the Cowboys will at least keep this closer than five points..

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Colts @ Texans (-3.5)

The Colts have not looked good this season, but they have the connection between Andrew Luck and TY Hilton, whereas the Texans have lost JJ Watt for the season and are ranked dead last in offence by DVOA. There may only be four places between them in their overall DVOA ranking, but the actual percentage is nearly twice as bad for the Texans and so I am worriedly backing the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jets @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals might have found a bit of a template for themselves last week as they rode David Johnson for one hundred and fifty-seven yards on the ground and should be getting Carson Palmer back this week. If they can keep the running game going against a Jets team who are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball then they should run out easy winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

So now that week five is in the books, and every team has played at least four games, I’m happy to take a look at the first quarter of the season and take a first look at how the divisions are shaping up.

AFC East

It is a familiar team at the top of this division with the New England Patriots only dropping one game during Tom Brady’s four game suspension and he returned in remarkable form, throwing four hundred yards in the Patriot’s win over the Browns, considering he has not been allowed to practice with the team during his suspension. I could really do without the Bengals visiting them this week, and I suspect the Patriots are going to challenge once more for a title.

The Buffalo Bills are only a surprising game back from the Patriots having won three in a row after a poor start and firing their offensive coordinator. They will be hoping to push for the playoffs now that both sides of the ball are coming together, which already looks out of sight for the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins who have both fallen to 1-4. The Jets defence is surprisingly poor, whilst their offence is struggling through a combination of injury and poor play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets’ roster was one of the oldest last season and this appears to be catching up with them this year. For the Miami Dolphins, the problems seem to do with roster construction and so with a defence that is under performing, and an offensive line that can’t protect their quarterback, it looks to be a long season for fans of the Dolphins as they try to find something they can build from.

AFC North

The Pittsburgh Steelers suffered a blip at the Philadelphia Eagles in week three, but otherwise have sailed through the first quarter of their season. An offence that was scary even before star running back Le’Veon Bell returned from suspension, becomes downright terrifying when you combine an elite quarterback, arguably the best running back and the best receiver in the game. They have also dug out another deep threat in receiver Sammie Coates, and pair all this offensive potency with a defence that is bending and not breaking and they look to be one of the elite teams in the league.

The Baltimore Ravens stand second in the division, and arguably could be 4-1 as they really should have beat Washington on Sunday, but between giving up a punt return for a touchdown and CJ Mosely making an interception and fumbling the ball stretching for a touchdown and having it go through the end zone so Washington got the ball back, they managed to lose. The question for the Ravens is how good they really are as their first three games were wins over modest opposition, and they have now lost two straight and just fired their offensive coordinator (a job with even less security than normal this season).

The Bengals are a similarly hard to pin down team this season having fallen to a 2-3 record. They have had a tough start to the season, and a trip to New England is hardly what they need right now, but the problems seem to the combination of a new offensive coordinator and new parts on offensive leading to yards but not points, whilst the defence was surprisingly poor against the Dallas Cowboys last week. The schedule will even out, but they can’t fall back much more behind the pace if they want to get back to the playoffs and break the longest playoff win drought in the league. I’m not in full panic mode yet, but I am pretty concerned.

The Cleveland Browns were always in for a long season, but the sheer number of injuries is a story in of itself as even when a young draft pick like receiver Corey Coleman starts to look promising, he breaks a hand in training. Meanwhile, five separate players have taken snaps at quarterback including the real bright spot of their season Terrelle Pryor, who has done everything that he possibly can for this team. The number of wins was always going to be low, and the Browns are playing really hard for Hue Jackson in his first year, but it looks like it is going to be a while before this team turn things around.

AFC South

The Houston Texans stand a top of their division despite losing JJ Watt for the year and Brock Osweiler throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. I’m sure that Bill O’Brien cares more than he said to the press as the Texans paid a lot of money to go out and get their man, and have put plenty of options around him, but it hasn’t clicked yet.

The Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans are both 2-3 but are having different seasons. The Titans have built a tough defence that currently ranks seventh in the league by DVOA, and have been getting by with what they turned an exotic smash-mouth offence. This has been uneven in results due to the limitations of their receivers and some inaccuracy from Marcus Mariota, but they got something of statement win over the Dolphins last week and we will have to see how they go. Meanwhile the Colts are in the race for the division thanks to Andrew Luck and TY Hilton, but there are problems all over for the roster and GM Ryan Grigson can complain all he like about being hampered by Luck’s new contract, it was him who was drafting and building the team around Luck whilst he was on his rookie contract so I don’t have a lot of sympathy with that one.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the most disappointing teams in the league for me, having been looking at finally breaking out, their defence played better but offence has struggled and they didn’t win a game until their trip to London in week four. They are only two games back on the Texans and so could pull themselves back into contention, but they will really need to push on with Blake Bortles needing to take a step to get back to how he played last year before he can start leading this offence to better performances.

AFC West

The Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders stand atop the division at 4-1 and could well be duking it out until the end of the season. The Raiders are playing offence as well as anyone in the league whilst waiting for their defence to come together. The connection between in Derrek Car and his receivers has led to eleven passing touchdowns and only two interceptions, with Amari Cooper snagging over four hundred and fifty yards whilst Michael Crabtree has caught five touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been playing very good defence and doing enough on offence. The Broncos run defence has suffered a little with the changes in personnel, but only time will tell if the Falcons found something that other teams can exploit in their week five win or if the Broncos defence bounce back.

The Kansas City Chiefs may only be 2-2, but after the rescue job that Andy Reid pulled off last season, I would not count them out yet. They are rumbling along, but their defence is struggling to rush the pass a bit and are missing Justin Houston, whilst the offence Is struggling  with a ranking by DVOA of twenty-fith. That said, Jamaal Charles is still working his way back from the season ending injury he had last year and they still have time to turn things round.

Everything seems to be going wrong for the San Diego Chargers, who could have a better record than 1-4 if they had managed to hold on to the ball in few more key situations. They again seem to be severely bitten by the injury bug, losing a starter for the season in each of the first three games, and the injuries have continued to pile up. It’s not that they have not been competitive, but they keep finding new ways to lose and it looks like another underwhelming season for a franchise who are one of the lucky ones to have a franchise quarterback.

NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys lost Tony Romo in preseason to a fractured vertebrae, but all the noises from Jerry Jones is that he will be the starter once he is fit. However, unlike last season which fell apart in Romo’s absence, the Cowboys have gone 4-1 behind excellent rookie quarterback Dak Prescott who has yet to throw an interception, and whilst his yardage numbers are not that impressive, he is winning games and is also a threat on the ground. After a slightly slow opening pair of games, Ezekial Elliott has run off three straight 100+ yard games for a total of five hundred and forty-six yards and five touchdowns. Add to this a defence that is doing enough and the Cowboys look to have found a sustainable winning formula. I’m still not sure that Romo should come back, but if he does get injured they have a player with plenty of early success to step in.

The Philadelphia Eagles may have dropped a game to the Detroit Lions last week, but at 3-1 they are already ahead of schedule thanks to a defence that is already playing well under first year coordinator Jim Schwartz and the play of rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. In a rare trade that was a win for both sides, the Eagles sent Sam Bradford to the Vikings for a first round pick with more to come if Bradford continues to play well, which meant Wentz was made the starter and he already looks at home. The coaching staff has done a great job of putting Wentz in a position to succeed, but he’s been in complete control of the offence and only threw his first interception against the Lions last week. The Eagles have been one of the surprises of the season and I could easily see them challenging in this division for the rest of the year.

It has been a season of ups and downs in Washington, but after a slow start they have won three straight and slowly dragged their season around. It looked like Kirk Cousins was possibly pressing at the start of the season, or he could just be a streaky quarterback. They were slightly lucky to win against the Ravens last week, but they will be hoping that they can keep in the hunt going forward.

The New York Giants got off to a solid start but haven’t been able to sustain it, losing their last three games. The NFL media are obsessing over Odell Beckham’s outbursts, but with an anaemic running game and Eli Manning struggling in the passing game, the offence is not flowing and the defence appears to be regressing after a promising opening couple of games. It is too early to read too much into this record, but I always thought there was more wrong with the Giants than Tom Coughlin’s coaching (which had previously netted them two Super Bowl wins over the Patriots and so I was very sceptical when he was fired and everyone else kept their jobs) and it looks like I may be proven correct in the long term.

NFC North

The Minnesota Vikings are the only unbeaten team in the league, despite a number of high quality starters getting injured, including Teddy Bridgewater in a pre-season injury that was so bad it stopped practice. However, plaudits must go to both the coaching staff for the job in getting them ready, and to GM Rick Spielman who went out and got Sam Bradford in a trade with the Eagles. It was criticised at the time due to the price he payed, but it seems that he was right to believe he had a team capable of challenging for a Super Bowl, and with a new stadium that is proving to be a hostile place for visiting teams, the Viking look to be set to go deep into the playoffs despite the injuries.

The Green Bay Packer meanwhile, have assembled a very respectable 3-1 record despite having a certain amount of their problems from last year roll over into this season. The offence is improving, but still seems very reliant on Jordy Nelson, whilst the defence has improved markedly against the run whilst struggling occasionally to defend the pass. This is not helped by corner Sam Shield still being in the concussion protocol and you begin to wonder how long he may be able to continue to play. Still, with Aaron Rodgers you should be competitive most year and we will just have to see how the team develops in the coming weeks.

The Detroit Lions have been up and down as they gone 2-3, with a defence that is struggling again as injuries has hampered them, whilst the offence has continued its progress under Jim Bob Cooter with Marvin Jones playing very well having turned down the Bengals to get a bigger role.

The Chicago Bears are propping up the division on 1-4 and have a frightening number of players injured, which has included Jay Culter and with Bryan Hoyer throwing for six touchdowns and no interceptions it feels like a quarterback controversy could be brewing. There are bits of this team that look like it might come together at some point, but they are ways away from competing for the playoffs, but their fans will be hoping to see something that shows they are building towards winning.

NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons have the best ranked offence by DVOA in the NFL and have ridden this to a 4-1 as they come into a stretch that will really prove if they are for real this year. An excellent offensive game plan and a good enough defence was enough to beat Denver this week, but they have stayed out west as they now travel to Seattle as part of a fearsome road trip to two of the hardest places to visit in the NFL. They will be hoping to avoid the huge dip in form they had last season, but Matt Ryan has looked a lot more comfortable in this second year in Kyle Shanahan’s offence with a much more balanced array of options open to him, and whilst I wasn’t expecting this happen, they are making me a believer this year. I am really looking forward to seeing them this weekend and going forward.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are really struggling this year, yet are somehow second in the division with a 2-3 record, with both wins coming against divisional opponents. However, they have not been convincing with questions surrounding the running of a team that thought it was a good idea to trade up in round two to pick a kicker.  The offence hasn’t continued from where it was last year with Dirk Koetter stepping up to head coach and making some poor game management decisions. This is another team that we’ll have to see how they progress through the season but I am not convinced that they are going to improve that much.

Both the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers have only win with the Saints going 1-3 and the Panthers a miserable 1-4. It is a familiar tale in New Orleans with Drew Brees producing but not being surrounded with enough talent to win. It is not unusual for the team who lost the Super Bowl to struggle next season, but I don’t think anyone was expecting quite this fall off. The injury to running back Jonathan Stuart and Cam Newton picking up a concussion are part of a worrying trend on offence, but perhaps the biggest surprise is the defence. The front seven are basically the same, but the secondary features three rookies playing in the rotation and the decision to let Josh Norman doesn’t look to be paying off anytime soon. I don’t think anyone was expecting the team who went 15-1 last season to look like this, but that’s why you play the games.

NFC West

The Seattle Seahawks have almost quietly got themselves a 3-1 record to lead the NFC West. The big worry for me going into the season was their offence, and specifically the offensive line, but despite getting Russell Wilson injured they have managed to do enough to win. In his second season in Seattle Jimmy Graham is finally beginning to look himself, whilst the defence looks as strong as ever. The Seahawks are once again near the top of the DVOA rankings, and their solitary loss was the now seemingly annual defeat by the Rams.

The Rams have moved to LA, picked a quarterback first who hasn’t even sniffed the field, but they have gone 3-2 off the back of defence that is playing well and not a lot else. The offence is struggling once more in the passing game, whilst the big play reliant Todd Gurley is not finding the big plays that covered up his lack of consistency last season. They are trying to avoid 7-9 agricultural manure football, but it feels they might end up there or there abouts.

The Arizona Cardinals have got off to surprisingly bad start. The offence has been misfiring on offence, with Carson Palmer not finding the deep ball regularly even before his concussion. In David Johnson they have one of the best running backs in the league, and it looks like they may need to rely on him a bit more if they are to turn round the season. They are only 2-3, but they will need to find some consistency if they are to get to where they want to go, and where everyone expected them to be. On a personal note, Larry Fitzgerald continues to be the prototypical receiver and human being that everyone should aspire to be.

It is not surprising that the San Francisco 49ers are propping up the division given the upheaval of their roster a year ago. There is not a lot to write home about, and the loss of NaVorro Bowman was particularly sad given how hard he had worked to come back from last season’s horrible knee injury where basically everything in his knee was torn apart. The big offseason news was Colin Kaepernick’s refusal to stand for the national anthem, which has developed into a series of protests across the league and looks to be spreading to other sport. Kaepernick will be making his first start of the season this weekend and he will want to provide a spark to an offence that has struggled under Blaine Gabbert, but there are bound to be those looking to write stories about how the off the field situation affects his on field play, and the only way to silence that will be to play well. Given that he has played in a Super Bowl, the fall over the last couple of seasons was steep and I for one would like to see him turn things round.

 

And now onto tonight’s game:

Broncos @ Chargers (+3.5)

The Broncos may have lost last week, but are facing a very different team in the Chargers, and with all the ways that they are finding to lose and the injuries I can only pick one way in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

I was listening to a couple of podcasts over the weekend, one talking about philosophy and the difference between perception and truth, and another where Bill Simmons was talking about how a sports writer is usually right or wrong. Now I am not the kind of person to write a takedown piece just to generate traffic, but because I am an NFL obsessive this did get me thinking about what I am trying to do as a writer and specifically how I was approaching one of the teams that I am struggling the most to predict this season.

I am currently 1-4 in picking against the spread for games involving the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the only game I got right involved them going up against the Patriots, not exactly a difficult pick. The Jaguars have garnered a fair amount of good will in the UK with their commitment to the playing in London, and as a consequence of their repeated presence have naturally had more coverage over here than a team with their record might otherwise have garnered. It also helps that Gus Bradley is well liked and is a very positive person who is being given time to rebuild the Jaguars through the draft. However, they have never won more than four games with him as head coach, and currently stand as 1-4.

The media narrative surrounding the team is that they are building towards success, and that this could be the year that they could attain respectability even if the playoffs remain out of reach. I don’t want to delve into a metaphysical analysis of the nature of objective truth, but as the Jaguars are not a team I am watching week in week out, I decided to brave the Jaguars at Buccaneers week five game to take a closer look for myself.

I am no stranger to the dangers of hope, during the Bengals horrible run from 1998-2002 I didn’t go into the season thinking the team were doomed to double digit losses, but the proof was in the team’s results. In this game I saw a lot of the same things from those days, there is potential, but both teams were guilty of making the kinds of mistakes that lose you games. Also, we have a tendency to talk about good and bad players in the NFL, when the truth is that even the worst of them are professionals with physical skills or an understanding of the game that are likely far in excess of our own. The margin of error between success and failure is so fine that it only takes a few mistakes in key situations to change the result of a game, a slight lack of understanding to take you from a solid starter to ending your NFL career.

The Jaguars have been unable to get both sides of the ball working at the same time this season, and this loss to the Buccaneers must be so frustrating for the defensively minded Gus Bradley.

The Jaguars really do have promise on offence, I liked both Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson as receivers, and if they can work their big free agent signing tight end Julius Thomas into the game as he comes back from injury then they could have all the options they need in the passing game. There were also some flashes from rookie running back TJ Yeldon that made me think that things could come together very nicely for the Jaguars on offence. This is particularly true when you start looking at the development of their quarterback Blake Bortles, he threw for over three hundred yards in this game with four touchdowns and one interception. More importantly, he was able to throw some of those touchdown passes through tight windows, and in one play as the pocket broke down he was able to escape pressure and buy enough time for TJ Yeldon to come open in the end zone.

It is harder for me to comment on the defence as the Buccaneers found a weakness and kept exploiting it. There were plays were the Jaguars front would penetrate and stop the run for a loss, but the Jaguars essentially lost this game by giving up over one hundred and eighty yards on the ground as Dough Martin ran for over one hundred yards and two touchdowns as well as catching a third touchdown. With Bradley’s history as a defensive coach you would hope he could get this side of the ball to play well week in week out, but we will have to see.

So what is the truth about the Jaguars? Well like anything with this number of variables it is hard to tell, but there is more than the occasional glimpse of potential to this team and I hope for Jaguars fans that things do finally come good because I do see how they could. I will be watching them more carefully over the next couple of weeks to see how things develop, and whether they can get that elusive Wembley win in their week seven trip to London. Dan should expect some more texts from me announcing that I’ve gone with the Jaguars again.

Now on to the picks, with Dan pulling a game back on me last week I had better hit the mark in this week’s games.

Gee:    Week 5   8-6               Overall   40-37
Dan:    Week 5   9-5               Overall   37-40

Falcons @ Saints (+3.5)

This game has the potential to be a real blow out. The Falcons having been playing so well, and the Saints are really struggling. I don’t know how much is age, how much is the injury, and how much is the players around him, but Drew Brees has not looked good, whilst the defence is dead last in defensive DVOA and we’re already seeing friction between Sean Payton and Rob Ryan. They play the games for a reason, but it’s tough for me to see anything other than a big Falcons win in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Bengals @ Bills (+2.5)

As a Bengals fan I am worried about this game. The Bills have been up and down on defence with Rex Ryan’s pressure schemes seeming to produce mixed results, whilst on offence they have been struggling to move the ball over recent weeks and Tyrod Taylor has a sprained kneww. However, as good as the Bengals have looked so far this season, they have to lose at some point and there is a part of me that is still waiting for the wheels to fall off, but I don’t think it will be in this game.

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Bengals

Bears @ Lions (-2.5)

The Lions are in such a mess right now, and I was so excited about them coming to London in week eight. The defence fell off again last week and who knows if we will see a fit DeAndre Levy this season. Things are even worse on offence with Matthew Stafford being benched during the last game. Meanwhile the Bears have quietly won two straight games under John Fox, who may not have won a Super Bowl in Denver, but he knows how to work with this kind of roster and it appears that the Bears are a better team that we thought at the start of the season.

Gee’s Pick:    Bears
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

Broncos @ Browns (+4.5)

The Browns are not the team I thought they were going to be, but Josh McCown has been undeniably effective moving the ball over the last two weeks, I’m just not sure what the long term plan is for them at quarterback given his age. The good news is that their poorly ranked defence, which is dead last in run defence DVOA is welcoming a Broncos team that are misfiring on offence and haven’t been able to run the ball at all. The Broncos are unbeaten so it is still too early to be talking about dropping Peyton Manning, but with his reduced effectiveness he has to at least protect the ball better for them to keep winning. Their defence will continue to be excellent even without DeMarcus Ware for a couple of weeks, but you can only succeed for so long when one side of the ball is performing so much worse than the other. I expect a close game, and having only missed picking against the Broncos by a half point last week, I’m going against them again as they visit Cleveland, even if I do expect them to win.

Gee’s Pick:    Browns
Dan’s Pick:    Broncos

Dolphins @ Titans (-2.5)

I really don’t know what to make of this game. The Titans were in an ugly game last week where neither team were able to move the ball. However, their defence has definitely been more effective this season and this could come into play in this game. The Dolphins will be hoping than new Head Coach Dan Campbell will produce a reaction in this game, but whilst the change in defensive coordinator and new attitude might help that woeful side of the ball, it is not going to suddenly improve their offensive line. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops, but I’m not backing the Dolphins until I’ve seen something with my own eyes that convinces me that things have changed.

Gee’s Pick:    Titans
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Chiefs @ Vikings (-3.5)

The Vikings are coming off a bye to welcome a Chiefs team whose season is falling apart around them. The talent in their front seven has not stopped this team giving up too many points on defence, and they just lost Jamaal Charles for the year who is so central to their offence. I don’t think the Chiefs are exactly a bad team, but it feels like a lost season for them and I don’t expect them to be able to cope with the Vikings on the road.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Washington @ Jets (-5.5)

The Jets defence is right up there with the Broncos for the best in the league, and they can run the ball effectively on offence, I’m just not sure they should be giving five and a half points to anyone. This Washington team are definitely headed in the right direction, the defence seems to be coming together and they have been able to run the ball in some games. The problem for me is that their defence is not as good as the Jets, and I don’t think they will be able to get much going on offence. I simply don’t trust Cousins against that Jets secondary, and so whilst I don’t like the points, I also don’t think the NFC East is a good division this year so I’m worriedly backing the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Washington

Cardinals @ Steelers (+3.5)

This looks to be one the best games of the week. The Steelers were able to get the job done on Monday night despite Mike Tomlin’s clock management and losing seconds to clock errors. They were aided by injuries to the Chargers line, but the defence and their play makers, including Michael Vick, did enough to get the win on the road. However, this week they welcome a Cardinals team who are rolling and deserved to be mentioned alongside the remaining undefeated teams. There are still questions about the Steelers’ secondary and in Carson Palmer we have a quarterback with the ability to test them. This is a hell of a swing in terms of points, but the only team to be within four points of the Cardinals this season was their divisional rivals the Rams who beat them in week four, and I think they will get the win in Pittsburgh.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Texans @ Jaguars (+0.5)

This is where I compare what I saw this week with the Jaguars against the Texans, who have been woeful this season. The Texans can’t defend despite having one of the best defensive players in the league, and they’ve been all over the place with their quarterbacks. I would be playing Hoyer as I think Mallet makes too many mistakes, and this is one of the few games where it might matter, but I am once more picking the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:    Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

Panthers @ Seahawks (-6.5)

This is a tricky game for me as we have seen a few cracks in the Seattle defence this season, and even with Kam Chancellor back they couldn’t stop the Bengals comeback in the last quarter. More worryingly for me, their offensive line is still really struggling in pass protection and so Russell Wilson is still under too much pressure. However, I was really impressed with Thomas Rawls who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season, and the run game was looking better last week. The Panthers have done really well so far, and have beaten the teams in front of them, but Cam Newton is running too much and that can only last so long. Their defence however is really good, and I foresee a close defensive game. I don’t know who will win it, but I don’t see why the Seahawks are getting the extra points so I’m backing the Panther to be less than a touchdown behind at the end of the game.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Chargers @ Packers (-9.5)

The Packers have not been the offensive juggernaut of the early weeks, but they still have Aaron Rodgers even if he did look mortal last week. However, this year the defence is ranked inside the top ten in defensive DVOA, even if the run defence is rated near the bottom of the league. They welcome a wounded Chargers team, whose offensive line suffered another injury last week, and were only able to move the ball thanks to Philip Rivers outstanding play, but they are soft on defence and I’m not sure I would back anyone against the Packers at home this season unless they are getting more points than this.

Gee’s Pick:    Packers
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

Ravens @ 49ers (+2.5)

This is a tricky one for me as Kaepernick managed to get a little something going last week, and the 49ers at least pushed the Giants into coming from behind in the fourth quarter to win the game. This week they welcome a Ravens team who have just been bad, I’ve talked about their problems at receiver and secondary, but it turns out that in addition to losing Terrell Suggs for the season, Elvis Dummervil has been fighting a groin problem all season and had to come out of the game last week resulting in very little pass rush. This is a match of two 1-4 teams, but it’s just possible that the Ravens are simply not going to be good this year, and with them going across country to play the 49ers, plus giving them points… I’m not ready to back them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    49ers
Dan’s Pick:    Ravens

Patriots @ Colts (+7.5)

The Patriots are on such a roll, and the Colts really could have lost to the Texans last week so this is a simple pick for me, even with the Colts getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:    Patriots
Dan’s Pick:    Patriots

Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles got their offence going last week, but I have to wonder how much was the Eagles game plan and how much was the Saints woeful defence. The Giants are going to pose a sterner test, and I’m not sure what the Eagles have done so far this season to gain an extra half point.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

I had a better time with my picks last week, but it didn’t do me much good as Dan and I had matching records, so I’m still two games behind him, and he is at a respectable 50% overall. I also didn’t get a chance to write up last week’s Thursday night game as I was busy over the weekend. Sadly it was another blow out, and so I don’t feel too guilty as although I enjoy looking at the coaching tape now that I have available to me, it would be nice to get to do it for a close game.

I thought that this week’s DVOA roundup from Football Outsiders (found here), had some interesting things to say on the overall standard of teams this season, and is well worth a look if you get a chance.

There will be a slight change this week as Dan is currently away, I have his Thursday night pick and will give post the rest when he gets back before the games on Sunday. There are not a lot games that I like the lines of, so let’s take a look as it is going to be another interesting week in the NFL.

Gee:     Week 4   10-5              Overall   36-40
Dan:     Week 4   10-5              Overall   38-38

Colts @ Texans (+2.5)

I was right in suggesting that the Texans would be involved in a close game last week, as they covered in a three point loss to the Cowboys. Their defence kept them in the game, despite Tony Romo spinning away from JJ Watt to complete a 43 yard pass, and Dez Bryant making a catch over Jonathan Joseph despite perfect coverage and Joseph having an arm between Bryant’s hands during the catch. The problem for this team is going to be the offence, and whether they can give the team enough to win. In some games they will, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is a limited quarterback who only had 154 yards and an interception against the Cowboys, and this is likely to be a problem all year.

The Colts on the other hand, have the luxury of having another great quarterback, and whilst he didn’t have his best game last week, he has led his team to the thirteenth on offence by DVOA this season in only his third year. I don’t know what the Thursday night effect will be on the game, and I fear another blow out, but I’m taking the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Patriots @ Bills (+3.5)

So I didn’t pick the Patriots last week, as their week four loss taught me that to do so just because of Brady and Belichick in a prime time game was a bad reason to pick games that way. Well, they followed up that horrible loss against the Chiefs on Monday night football, by spanking the Bengals in the Sunday night game. I’ll cover the Bengals in the next game write up, but the Patriots came out aggressively and played their best football of the season. Their o- line looked better, and Brady looked like he was having fun, which is easier to do when you are winning. I’m not sure they have answered every question, but the dual tight end attack featuring a rejuvenate Rob Gronkowski, and their late preseason trade piece Tim Wright, caught the eye with 185 yards and two touchdowns between them. Add to this 220 yards on the ground and it was a long day for the Bengals defence. Despite their turbulent start to the season, they have a chance this week to take sole possession of the AFC East with a win over the Bills.

I do not have a handle on the Bills at all. They beat the Lions 17-14, but the Lions kicker missed three field goals and so could have won the game pretty easily. Their defence and special teams are both ranked third by DVOA, but their offence is a sputtering twenty-seventh and whilst Kyle Orton is a stable starter, especially when compared to EJ Manuel, I don’t see them improving dramatically. I have picked the Patriots wrong for two weeks now, so Bills fans could well be happy that I’m picking against them this week, but I see a more familiar shape to the AFC East by the end of this weekend.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots

Panthers @ Bengals (-7.5)

I am not panicking, but I am worried. The Bengals team is still good, and has a lot of talent, but I’m still waiting for the light to go on in prime time. This was another game where Andy Dalton failed to answer the questions that surround him in big games. The Bengals are clearly missing Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert in the passing game, and Hue Jackson’s commitment to the run doesn’t seem to have materialised. I think they’ll continue to be good and make the playoffs, but it really is a playoff win or bust for this team, and I this is the kind of game that makes you wonder if this is the year they turn it round. I am not one of those who questions Marvin Lewis’ record, if you look at the changes he has made over the years to the Bengals, I think there has been tremendous process. I understand that he hasn’t won a playoff game, but the Bengals were a national joke and he has turned that round into a good drafting, very talented team. You don’t throw that away, but I don’t understand why good head coaches, who are not great game managers, don’t just hire someone to this for them. Andy Reid is another really good coach, who could benefit from someone tracking time management etc on game day.

The Panthers proved me wrong last week, beating a Bears team that are up and down and lead their conference with a 3-2 record. Cam Newton is really developing as a quarterback, throwing two touchdowns to tight end Greg Olsen and he is gaining trust in rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The defence is still a worry, ranking twenty-seventh by DVOA and giving up 347 yards last week, but they did get four turnovers. I expect the Bengals to bounce back at home where they have been very good for several seasons now, but I believe that the Panthers will give a good account of themselves so I am wary of this points total.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers

Steelers @ Browns (-1.5)

I’m really not sure where to go with this line. The Steelers continued their win, loss, win, loss pattern by beating the Panthers last week, but they’ve not been convincing for a lot of the year. Not only did the Browns win on the road against the woeful Titans, but they managed the largest ever comeback by a road team, overturning a twenty-five point deficit in the process. I think this game could go either way, but whilst I think the Browns are a tough team to play, I’m not sure that they should be favourites in this game. Neither of these teams’ defences are ranked as well as I would have expected going into the season, but I have more faith in the Steelers’ offence than I do in the Browns’ offence, despite the Browns ranking five places higher at fourth by DVOA, so I’m going with the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers

Broncos @ Jets (+8.5)

The Jets are struggling due to a lack of talent. On offence things are going from bad to worse and it looks like I was wrong to say there were signs of improvement in Geno Smith, particularly with stories of him missing meetings and visiting the cinema before a game. In fairness, Michael Vick didn’t exactly light it up when he came into the game. That the Jets are a mess is not perhaps a surprise, but they are also ranked nineteenth on defence as the play of their secondary means that even Rex Ryan is struggling to sort them out. I think this is going to be one season too many for Ryan, who I’m not convinced about as a head coach, but who I would hire in a heart beat as a defensive coordinator, particularly if you have the personnel in place for his 3-4 scheme.

There is not much to say about the Broncos for the opposite reason. They are very good, it’s no surprise that Peyton Manning is playing well, and their defence is ranked second by DVOA, whilst they team overall stands top of both the DVOA and DAVE rankings. It was only in the fourth quarter, when injuries caught up with the Cardinals, that they really pulled away from the visiting team, so I don’t feel bad about picking against the Broncos last week, but I can’t see the Jets doing anything similar in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos

Lions @ Vikings (+1.5)

This is a big game for the Lions if they want to remain in contention in the NFC North. They could have won the game last week despite Calvin Johnson being hobbled, having left nine points on the field through missed field goals. The offence is struggling and I don’t see that changing with Calvin Johnsons being listed as doubtful. However their defence is ranked first by DVOA and this it was this side of the ball that helped them beat the Packers in week 3. They have the Vikings, Saints, and Falcons coming up before a bye, so now looks to be not a bad time to rest Johnson and look to push on later in the season. I think they should be able to compete in this stretch, but it will be a test.

I’m not going to over react to the Vikings’ blow out loss on Thursday night, we only have to look at what the Buccaneers did the week after their horrible loss to the Falcons to see that this does not have to define your season, but I am worried. You knew going into that game that the offence was going to struggle with Christian Ponder starting, but in fairness there were more problems than just him. The o-line didn’t look to be getting much push in the rushing game or giving much protection in pass sets, and even when Asiata had a good run, he fumbled the ball. I’m not sure if Teddy Bridgewater will be back this week as he is still listed as questionable, so I’m not sure if the offence will turn around. The defence got gouged for various plays, but also got a lot of three and outs against the Packers offence and looked good in patches. The Vikings are currently ranked twenty-ninth overall by DVOA, but the blow out will be affecting that ranking and I think they are a little better than that. However, I don’t think that will be enough for them to win this game against the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions

Packers @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Packers are looking more like themselves over the last two weeks, especially on offence, where Rodgers has thrown for a combined 458 yards, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. The o-line seems to be holding up better, and Eddie Lacy is looking more like the running back he was expected to be before the start of the season. The defence also looked good last week with six sacks, and a slimmed down Julius Peppers looking good as he ran an interception back 49 yards for a touchdown. As with the Vikings, I wouldn’t read too much into the lopsided nature of the Thursday night game results as we’ve had a lot of these so far this season, but the Packers now sit third overall in DVOA, and whilst I think the defence may fall back from its current ranking of twelfth, I think the Packers are heading in the right direction.

The Dolphins are coming off a bye, having spectacularly taught me a lesson about falling for a team that sounded good in interviews. I still don’t like the way Joe Philbin dealt with his quarterback situation, but Tannehill responded with a good game in Wembley as they solidly beat the Raiders. However, I’m not going to get carried away with this win due to who they were playing. They are good on defence, but the Packers are now looking more like the team we were expecting them to be, and there are still questions around the Dolphins’ offence that makes me think they are losing this one despite being at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Titans (-6.5)

For me this is a fairly straight forward pick. I suppose you could say that it was good that the Titans built a 25 point lead, but it was a horrible loss to the Browns, and now Jake Locker is questionable with a thumb injury. I do not like this team and I actually think that they might lose to the Jaguars, but even if they do win, I don’t see them doing so by seven or more points when the Steelers only beat the Jaguars by eight. The Jaguars don’t exactly inspire confidence, but I don’t see them losing every game and I think they will keep this game close.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars

Ravens @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

I hate this line! The Buccaneers have played solidly since their blow out loss to the Faclons in Week three, and look they have something going with Mike Glennon at quarterback, whilst the defence has also being playing better. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and lost to the Saints in overtime, but they are still thirty-first overall by DVOA so I’m not that taken with them.

The problem for me is that the Ravens have looked good for a lot of the season, particularly after shaking off a week one loss against the Bengals, but they don’t seem to be travelling that well. They only beat the Browns by two points in Cleveland and lost against the Colts last week. However, there is a chasm between them in the DVOA rankings and I think that facing Mike Glennon is very different to facing Andrew Luck, so I will take the Ravens to bounce back with a win, hopefully covering the points whilst they are at it.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5)

The Chargers continue to look good, but the injuries are mounting up for them. This might make me pause over a number this large, but not against the Raiders. Right now Philip Rivers is just playing too well and the Raiders have been rotten. I don’t know why I fell for them in the London game, given that one of my survivor strategies has been picking teams playing the Raiders. I don’t what affect the firing of Dennis Allen will have, but there are also talent issue for this team and until I see something from the Raiders, I’m not backing them, even when they are getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is another line I don’t like. The Falcons are still riding high in the DVOA rankings, but that is mainly because of their game against the Buccaneers. They will be better at home as they always are, but their o-line is a mess and the defence is not looking good. The Bears need this win to stay in contention, and I think they will get it, but I am worried. They’ve not looked good over the last couple of weeks, and Jay Cutler needs to protect the ball more, but they should have too much for the Falcons

Gee’s Pick:      Bears

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-7.5)

The Cowboys continued their good start to the season with a close win over the Texans last week, but I’m not so sure of them this week. They needed overtime to get the win, and whilst their young o-line has been playing excellently, visiting Seattle is really going to test them. They made some spectacular plays on offence, which I don’t think they will get against the Seahawks, and their defence will face a tougher test this week.

I think that the Seahawks will win this game. Poor Percy Harvin had three touchdowns called back by penalties against Washington, with James Carpenter giving away twenty-five yards of penalties on two of these plays. I am worried about the points as the Cowboys have been good and the smart play would be to take them, but with that home field advantage I’m thinking that the Cowboys are in for a long day.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks

Washington @ Cardinals (-3.5)

The Cardinals were keeping it close until the fourth quarter last week, until injuries finally did for them as they lost Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson on defence, as well as losing Drew Stanton to injury, forcing them to play the Logan Thomas at quarterback. They have to keep Thomas on the roster as someone would claim him from the practice squad, but he’s not ready to play yet and this is a real problem for them with Carson Palmer’s injury. The history of nerve issues is not inspiring; as anyone who has followed NBA great Steve Nash’s recent seasons will know, but with Drew Stanton on concussion protocol, quarterback could be a real problem for the Cardinals.

Washington has not been impressive this season, but they have a chance this week. I’m not convinced they can win; their offence and defence don’t rank too badly but their special teams are thirty-first by DVOA. They are another team that I really didn’t like in Thursday night game, but they didn’t do much last week to convince me either so whilst I am going back and forth on this one, I don’t think I can back them this week despite the Cardinals issues.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals

Giants @ Eagles (-2.5)

The Eagles found a way last week against the Rams, leading the game convincingly until the fourth quarter when they let the Rams back a little. They got another touchdown from a blocked punt, and lead the league in special teams DVOA, but their offence is still struggling compared to where they were expected to be. They are not much healthier on the o-line and LeSean McCoy has not looked like the back he was last year. The defence seems to be holding up better than expected, but overall this team’s 4-1 record includes two three point wins that could have easily gone the other way, and you can only score so many special teams touchdowns.

The Giants on the other hand, have been steadily improving, with Eli Manning now looking really good in the new offence. They have now won three straight games and are actually ranked higher in overall DVOA than the Eagles, as well as ub offensive and defensive DVOA. I fancy them to give the Eagles a hard time this week and I like that I’m getting points as well. This could well be the week there Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys all end up with 4-2 records.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants

49ers @ Rams (+3.5)

There are so many stories swirling round the 49ers, and in particular Jim Harbaugh, at the moment, but they have still won the last two games. Their defence is playing well, whilst their offence is stuttering a bit. You would like to see more development from Colin Kaepernick, but they are getting it done and I wouldn’t bet against them this week.

The Rams are thirtieth in defensive DVOA and twenty-third in offence, but whilst Austin Davis did throw for 375 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, the Rams were never really in the game against the Eagles, and only a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter kept the score respectable. I don’t think that they will have such success on offence this week and I think they lose another one.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers.