Tag Archives: Week 6 Picks

2021 Week Six Picks

17 Sunday Oct 2021

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Week six started with a game that didn’t look that competitive on paper as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travelled to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, and when the Bucs went up 28-7 in the third quarter it certainly looked ominous but in the final twenty minutes the Eagles got some stops on defence and scored a couple of touchdowns to ultimately lose by one score 22-28. Part of the reason that happened was because head coach and play caller Nick Siranni suddenly remembered that running back Miles Sanders could actually run the ball. Previous to that the offence had only revolved around Jalen Hurts running and taking deep shots that seemed to be more effective at getting penalty yards than actual passing completions. The Eagles are not a good team right now, and I would question the way they are trying to run their offence, but there are glimmers of something there.

As for the Bucs, they are looked ominously good on offence for three quarters but seemed to bog down for the final quarter, although to the surprise of no Tom Brady was able to close out the game with a clock killing drive. There will be sterner tests of the injured Bucs’ secondary, but the rush defence was excellent and against even a slightly slower quarterback Shaq Barrett would have had multiple sacks. It may be that the injuries sink the Bucs at some point but right now they are still managing to look like Super Bowl champions thanks to the play of their offence.

So with that said about the Thursday night game let’s turn our eyes to the Sunday matchups.

Early Games:

We get our second and last London game of the season this week, but I’m not sure it’s going to be a great contest. The Jaguars are 0-5 for a reason and Urban Myer really hasn’t convinced in the pros so I find it hard to believe that he will outcoach Brian Flores, even if the Dolphins have really struggled so far this season. I’m hoping for Dan that the Dolphins play better and Tua Tagovailoa gets the start and elevates the team even though the betting lines haven’t moved with Jacoby Brissett as the starter. The sad truth is that right now the Dolphins are ranked only one place higher by the DVOA than the Jaguars and are actually ranked three places lower than the league’s other winless team the Detroit Lions. At this point there might have to be questions about how the draft picks of the recent Dolphins regime is working out even if the process of accumulating them was well done. While the Dolphins shouldn’t be in full panic mode yet, this is probably the first time Flores will be dealing with genuine criticism of his tenure so it will be interesting to see how he and his team react in strange surroundings.

As for the six o’clock games, the oldest rivalry in the NFL is being played again as the Packers visit the Bears, but the matchup of this window must be the LA Chargers visiting the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are coming out of a game where they had to work hard to get the overtime win but where Lamar Jackson completed thirty-seven of forty-three passes for four hundred and forty-two yard and four touchdowns. This doesn’t answer all the questions about Jackson in the passing game as the Colts played him in a particular way, but that was likely his best game as a drop back passer. The Chargers have a different defensive philosophy, but a lot of the excitement is based around the continued development of quarterback Justin Herbert in his second season and this meeting of two 4-1 teams looks to be a great contest that has the potential for real fireworks.

Points from the rest:

  • The Packers have well and truly moved past their bad opening week but had to work hard to beat the Bengals last week and it will be interesting to see how they do against the Bears, where Matt Nagy has a 31-22 overall record but generally gets coverage that sounds like he’s doing a lot worse. That is because the Bears are not really that convincing at 3-2 but let’s see what Justin Fields and the offence can do this week.
  • The Bengals had an okay showing last week, but if they want to build on the winning first quarter of the season, they will need to beat a Lions team who have not looked far away from their first win and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions did get that this week.
  • The Colts looked better last week, with Carson Wentz looking as good as he has for a long time, but they need to rediscover their winning habit and whilst hosting the Texans looks like a good opportunity to do that, the number of points they are laying seems excessive and I can’t back them to cover that kind of line when they are 1-4.
  • I’m not sure what to expect from the Giants, as even when things show some promise, injury gets in the way and it’s hard to see them getting one over the Rams, even if it is a long way from LA to the east coast. However, this is a big line and with Daniel Jones cleared to play I’m just wondering if the Rams will cover this one or if they will be happy to just get the win.
  • Washington are simply not anywhere near the team from last season and whilst the Chiefs are struggling on defence, they has so much more offence than the Football Team that even with this high line I am going to back the Chiefs to get back on track.
  • The Panthers have been struggling in recent weeks and placed running back Christian McCaffery on IR yesterday after he suffered a setback earlier in the week, which explains the four point swing from laying one and a half points to getting them if you look at the consensus number so I have to go for the Vikings.

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Packers @ Bears (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ Lions (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Texans @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Rams @ Giants (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Chiefs @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Vikings @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Late Games:

The best game of the late sets sees the 3-2 Cleveland Browns hosting the 5-0 Cardinals having lost to the Chargers last week. The Browns have beaten the teams they should have but come up short against Chiefs and Chargers. More worryingly the Brown’s injury list is begging to grow. The Cardinals are top ten in all three phases of the game but are on the road without their head coach after Kliff Kingsbury caught Covid-19. I have numbers that contradict each other, but with the Browns at home with their head coach available I’m going to reluctantly back them even though I really don’t have a feel for what is likely to happen in this one other than what looks to be a really good game.

Points on the Rest:

  • I don’t know how the Raiders will react to the Jon Gruden situation, whether they rally round to win one for themselves or struggle with motivation, although I have heard that Derek Carr has really stepped up this week in his leadership role. The Broncos have struggled the last two weeks and the extra half point makes me nervous so whilst my numbers are saying one thing, I’m going to grab the points and hope.
  • The Patriots struggled last week against the Texans, so even though they are getting four and a half points at home, which is pretty incredible given Belichick’s coaching record, I find it hard to believe the Pats will keep up with the Cowboys given how both teams are playing at the moment. I would stay well away from this one if I had the choice as I don’t fancy picking against Belichick by this many points but as I don’t have that option I’m going to nervously back the Cowboys given the Pats are the twentieth ranked team by DVOA and the Cowboys are the second.

Cardinals @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Cowboys @ Patriots (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Sunday Night Football:

Seahawks @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Sunday night game has a completely different feel now that the Seahawks have Russell Wilson out injured and are starting Geno Smith at quarterback. To be fair Smith didn’t exactly look bad when he came into last week’s game, but the Seahawks’ defence is ranked a lowly twenty-fifth right now so it is a lot to ask Smith to come in and maintain the Seahawks current ranking of fifth on offence by DVOA with so little support from the defence. I am not entirely sure I trust the Steelers turnaround on offence after one week, but under the circumstances facing a backup quarterback I’m leaning their way even if I’m not totally convinced.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Monday Night Football

Bills @ Titans (+5.5)

I guess the big question in this game is will the Bills have any kind of let down after the huge win against the Chiefs last week. They are on the road for a second week, this time facing a Tennessee Titans who may have the lead in the AFC South, but who have a 3-2 record and who are ranked twenty-sixth by overall DVOA. The Titans offence has not really clicked this season and the defence continues to struggle, whilst the Bills are the top team by DVOA thanks to the number one ranked defence by DVOA and an offence that is still potent even if Josh Allen’s performance has slipped a little from last year’s amazing efficiency. I feel like with the Bills on the road I could get bitten by this line under the circumstances, but looking at the Titans schedule so far this season I think I still have to back the Bills given the large difference in the DVOA rankings.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Six

14 Thursday Oct 2021

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Dan closed the gap to two points in week five of our picks competition but as we turn our attention to game six, which is the first of the season to feature teams on a bye, we also have what looks to be a distinctly one-sided Thursday night game.

Gee:Week 5:  7 – 9Overall:  43 – 37
Dan:Week 5:  10 – 6Overall:  41 – 39

Buccaneers @ Eagles (+6.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are currently ranked sixteenth overall by DVOA, but are undeniably limited on offence despite occasionally flashing glimpses of what they could be. The Eagles did beat the Panthers last week, but you would feel that even with the Buccaneers’ cluster of injuries at corner, that the Eagles’ passing game is not efficient enough for them to get the win. Even Tom Brady dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand is not enough for me to back the Eagles to cover given that the consensus line is +7 and I’ve seen others higher than that. The Eagles could very well make me look like a fool but for now I can’t look past the Bucs in this one, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Survivor Competition

I don’t know how closely Dan was following the game on Sunday as it was happening, but the Patriots were made to work to get their win against the Texans but his plan to pick against the Texans just about held. However, he has transferred his plan to pick against the Jaguars, which I understand except he’s placing more faith in his Dolphins team than I have! That said, the Ravens could have easily lost against the Colts so I can’t be too confident in my own selections. Looking at the teams this week I’ve gone for the Rams against the Giants, even if they are on the road, the Giants have enough injuries and struggles this season to make me think they’ll struggle to keep up with the Rams.

Current Score

Gee: 4
Dan: 3

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Rams
Dan:    Dolphins

Bold Prediction of the Week

I was really struggling for a bold prediction this week, but I was eventually allowed to back the Bears to cover getting four and a half points as they host the Packers on Sunday.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Six Picks

18 Sunday Oct 2020

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So thanks to the schedule changes this week, competition Thursday has merged into Sunday picks and maybe the change up in schedule will breathe life into a season where I’m four games behind evens and a whopping eleven points behind Dan. First things first though, I’ll run through the late things from Thursday and then roll into games.

Gee:Week 5:  7 – 8Overall:  35 – 43
Dan:Week 5:  9 – 6Overall:  46 – 32

Survivor Competition

Not content with bad picks, I jinxed the Chiefs into a loss against the Raiders last week so Dan is now evens with me in this competition and I’ve wasted the Chiefs so we shall have to see how things go. I am really struggling to have a strong feeling on this one while Dan is still riding the whoever is playing the Jets strategy, but I’m not going to be scared off by last week’s mishap and I have been very impressed with the Ravens so even if they are on the road that’s where I am going.

Current Score

Gee: 3
Dan: 3

Week 6 Selection:

Gee:     Ravens
Dan:    Dolphins

Bold Prediction of the Week

My not very bold but I was really struggling prediction this week is that the Giants are going to get their first win of the season this week against Washington.

Early Games:

The split between the early and late games is even more lopsided than usual, but the pick of the early games for me is the divisional clash between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers. After the Steelers’ re-arranged non-resting bye in week four caused by the Titans Covid-19 outbreak, the Steelers maintained their unbeaten start to the season against the Eagles, but this week’s game is probably the Steelers’ sternest test so far. That said, Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield is nursing a shoulder injury and so we don’t know how well the Browns offense will play. The Browns will be pitting their fourth in the league by DVOA rushing attack against the Steeler’s league leading by DVOA rush defense and with Mayfield’s health being a questions I am leaning towards the Steelers in this one.

The other really interesting game for me sees the 3-2 Carolina Panthers hosting the 4-1 Chicago Bears. This is a game that will see Chicago’s strong defense led by Khalil Mack try to keep them close enough that an offence now helmed by journeyman if Super Bowl winning quarterback Nick Foles can do enough to win. The Panthers already seem to be building something in Matt Rhule’s first season as head coach and whilst I don’t have a strong lean in this game, I think the matchup of the Bears’ defense against quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and the Panther’s top ten offence should make for a fascinating game.

As for the rest of the early games:

  • I don’t know what kind of reaction the Falcons will have with Raheem Morris taking overt as head coach, but it feels like there are structural problems at the franchise, where as the Vikings have something to build on even if a 1-4 start does not inspire confidence
  • The Colts are 3-2 but there have been rumblings about the form of Philip Rivers. I don’t see them having a problem with the Bengals this week, but I have been wrong a lot this year and I’d love to see some signs of progress from the Bengals after last week.
  • I am not wholly sure what will happen with the Patriots hosting the Broncos given more players have gone on the Covid list for the Patriots and a Denver coach has also tested positive. The Patriots in theory should win this one but given all that has happened for both teams in the last week I would not rely on anything too much.
  • I am not sure what the Lions have done to be laying points on the road against the Jaguars. Both teams’ defenses are ranked in the thirties by DVOA and the stand out unit is the Jaguars offence so whilst I can see this being a close game and maybe the Lions do win, to win by four seems a little off to me.
  • The Houston Texans may have a got a win last week, but the Tennessee Titans came roaring back from their Covid-19 situation with a big win against the Bills and I have a feeling will do well against the Texans.
  • The whole situation with Washington’s quarterbacks feels odd, but this week they must take on the New York Giants. It’s strange to see the teams right next to each other in overall DVOA when Washington’s defense is top five, but I’m leaning towards the Giants and will be watching this game out of curiosity to see what is going on for myself.
  • The Ravens travel to Philadelphia looking for another win and the line reflects the problems the Eagles have had at the start of the season. I don’t see much changing for the Eagles in this one but there’s always the chance for a surprise.

Falcons @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bears @ Panthers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Bengals @ Colts (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Browns @ Steelers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Broncos @ Patriots (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Lions @ Jaguars (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Texans @ Titans (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Washington @ Giants (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Ravens @ Eagles (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Late Games:

The pick of the late games is the Green Bay Packers taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but with no home crowd to make life difficult for the Packers offence I have a feeling that Aaron Rodgers is still going to be okay against a Buccaneers’ defense who ranks second in the league by DVOA. It wouldn’t surprise me if this was competitive, but with Rodgers operating so well in his second year of running Matt LaFleur’s offence I think the Packers are the more likely to win, especially given the penalties that the Bucs can give away.

The Jets face a Dolphins team who are coming off scoring forty-three points in a big win against the 49ers last week and whilst I think it is unlikely the Dolphins repeat that feat, the Jets have given no indication that they can spring a surprise in this one. You cannot rule it out completely given that this is a divisional game, but with a dearth of positives to take from their first five games I think it is a pretty small chance for the Jets on the road in Miami.

Jets @ Dolphins (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Packers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Rams @ 49ers (+3.5)

This is an odd game for the LA Rams who seem to have been travelling back and forth across the country in the opening five weeks and who are taking on a 49ers team beset by injuries. This divisional game still has the capacity to spring a surprise as the 49ers have been competitive in every game bar the last one, but they also have played four teams who currently have losing records and if the Rams cannot repeat the Dolphins success, you would expect their fourth ranked by DVOA offence to have enough for them to run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Monday Night Football

Chiefs @ Bills (+3.5)

Once again, we are treated to two Monday night games and this looks like a tasty matchup between the Bills and the Chiefs. The Bills finally played the Titans on Tuesday having had several postponements, but it can’t have made preparations easy and they had a bad loss. The worrying thing is how many problems quarterback Josh Allen had against zone coverage and it will be interesting to see what the Chiefs’ defense can do a week after their loss to the Raiders. Last week was the Chiefs’ only loss in fourteen games dating back to last season and including the playoffs so it is certainly not time to panic, but neither team will want to lose two in a row and this could well be the matchup of the week if both teams can bring their A game. I think you would always back the team with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but I certainly feel like the Bills could be able to compete at home in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Cardinals @ Cowboys (+2.5)

Week six finishes with an intriguing game that sees Andy Dalton get his first start for the Dallas Cowboys after Dak Prescott’s gruesome displaced ankle fracture last week. With the experience Dalton has the Cowboys probably have the best backup quarterback in the league, but if Dak playing brilliantly was having issues keeping the Cowboys’ in games thanks to their awful defense, I do wonder if Dalton will be able to do the same. However, although the Cardinals beat the Jets comfortably on the road last week, this is their third game in a row on the road and with losses to the Panthers and Lions so far this season I do wonder if this game might be closer than the line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Six Picks

13 Sunday Oct 2019

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Apart from work eating my time, I’ve also had a somewhat terrifying memory stick failure so whilst I have rescued over 30 000 words of a novel and pretty much all of my files – I am massively behind so I’m putting up our picks and trivia and will have to try to find time to get back on an even keel during the upcoming week.

‘I’m looking at Chicago who, you will recall have retired the most jerseys (14) but what number did Walter Peyton wear so proudly for the Bears. 2 points available here.’

For once I’m feeling confident about the basic part of the trivia competition because I can see in my mind Peyton running the ball wearing number 34 – although it would be a bit embarrassing if I’m misremembering. I’m still lost on the theme though as I can’t make anything fit.

‘Well, I know the answer to this week’s question is 34 – I remember seeing hundreds of people wearing his Jersey when we went to see the Vikings get heated by the Bears in Chicago almost exactly 10 years ago (sorry Dad!).

But I’m still none the wiser when it comes to the theme. My guess this week is “Things which have nothing to do with each other whatsoever”.’

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-11.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Seahawks @ Browns (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Texans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Washington @ Dolphins (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Eagles @ Vikings (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Saints @ Jaguars (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Falcons @ Cardinals (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Cowboys @ Jets (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Titans @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Broncos

Steelers @ Chargers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Lions @ Packers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Six

10 Thursday Oct 2019

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A losing week sees me did back to .500 but holding a narrow two point lead on Dan’s Dad, but there is still plenty of time for changes and Dan is not out of it, although he will be hoping not to make it a third week in a row scoring only six points.

Gee: Week 5   7-8 Overall   39-39
Dan’s Dad: Week 5   9-6 Overall   37-41
Dan: Week 5   6-9 Overall   34-43

Giants @ Patriots (-16.5)

You should never say never, but I have a feeling that tonight’s Thursday night game won’t live up to the previous two as we see the New England Patriots host a New Your Giants team who got something of a reality check last Sunday. In Daniel Jones the Giants may well have a quarterback for the future, but there are still a lot of problems with the rest of their roster and this is obviously not an easy game. The unbeaten Patriots have been ominously good again this season and even though their offence has not looked at its best, and Tom Brady is beginning to look like a forty-two quarterback, it stills ranks in the top ten by DVOA. Even more scary is the Patriots stellar defence that ranks number one by DVOA, which I think is going to limit a rookie quarterback quite easily. This number of points is obviously going to make me pause but given the Pats have beaten several lines like this already this season, I can’t quite bring myself to pick the Giants. I could look very foolish tomorrow.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Week 6 Trivia

‘With the season now 5 weeks old, and the bye weeks started, the only things of which I’m certain is that the Picks game is unpredictable, and that Dan and Gee will continue to overthink my devious questions.

It was pleasing that The Dolphins didn’t lose thanks to being on a bye but Dan did wonder what the spread on them would have been for the bye. The Vikings returned to form at the Giants but sadly the Bengals did less well, going down against the Cardinals. Oh well, there’s a long way to go yet.

Right onto this week’s devious question which concerned the Carolina Panthers and asked How many rushing yards did DeShaun Foster run in the 2002 regular season?

Well, I do have a conscience and having set the question I did feel a little guilty as I heard the Random Number Generators being dusted off.

Why? Well while DeShaun Foster was expected to be the elite running back for the Panthers, but never started a regular season game due to injuries. So the answer was a big fat Zero and unsurprisingly both Dan and Gee got the same result.

Yet again we have no sign of either spotting the theme. Better luck in Week 6.

Guilt has kicked in and I’d expect to see 2 correct answers this week where I’m looking at Chicago who, you will recall have retired the most jerseys (14) but what number did Walter Peyton wear so proudly for the Bears. 2 points available here.’

2018 Week Six Picks

14 Sunday Oct 2018

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So let’s hope I can do a little better this week than the last one, we shall see, but first the proof that Dan’s dad is doing so much better at setting trivia questions that we are at answering them.

‘I don’t remember asking any questions so far about College Football yet its popularity is huge. Just this once I will allow the use of Google just this once:

Which college has produced the most Hall of Famers in pro football?

OK so here comes the promised Week 6 BONUS and this one is for 2 points so we can get the scoreboard ticking:

Who holds the in-game record all time FG distance and what is it?’

Okay, so this is a pair of interesting questions. I have a couple of theories on the first one, I think Miami Hurricanes have a lot because of their history on defence, and USC have a bunch as well but I think the college with the most is actually not one you might think of now because Notre Dame used to be huge as a football team (I’ve heard this thanks to listening to Tony Kornheiser) so that’s what I’m nervously going for.

The kicking thing is going to drive me round the bend whilst Dan is obsessed with it so think he’s going to beat me but my guess, and it is a shot in the dark, is Sebastian Janikowski but it’s a guess… Let’s say sixty-four yards as Gano’s last week was sixty-three.

‘I’m taking a decent lead here in the Trivia after a slow start!

So question 1, I am stuck on. I don’t watch and don’t follow college football, so I’m going to go with Texas A&M as one of the only ones I can name off the top of my head!

And for question 2, I think dad’s snookered himself here, because I think Graham Gano’s kick was the joint longest as it goes! So I’ll say along with him, Adam Vinatieri, and 63 yards.’

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is a strange game in that the Atlanta Falcons are really struggling as the injuries reached a critical mass early, particularly on defence and so whilst the offence is ranked eleventh, they haven’t been able to overcome the problems on defence. This week they welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming off a bye but they were last been seen getting dismantled by the Chicago Bears. They are returning with Jameis Winston as the starter and a defence that ranks dead last in the league by DVOA. The up and down nature of the Bucs play doesn’t inspire confidence but neither does the Falcons, so how do you pick? The two teams are ranked next to each other and whilst the Falcons are at home and do have a better quarterback, the extra half point just makes me worry yet I can’t find it in myself to put my trust in the Buccaneers. I could be really wrong on this.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

‘Difficult pick straight off the bat here. I’ll go with Atlanta as I think they’ve got enough to win this one, especially with Home advantage.’

Bills @ Texans (-7.5)

This line makes me nervous as the Texans have not exactly been convincing. Bill O’Brien failed to co-ordinate a lot of points in the red zone last week and got Deshaun Watson hit too much and his defence, whilst looking good in the front seven has problems in coverage. This week they welcome a Bills team who compete and have somehow managed to win two games despite the deficiencies in their roster and this is making this game and absolute nightmare to pick. I think the Texans are more likely to win than not, but the Bills have twice pulled an upset and the fact that the Texans need to win by eight points to cover is definitely worrying me. In the end I can’t quite back the Texans to do that, but I could look very silly by the end of this evening.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

‘The Bills have looked a different team to that of the first couple of weeks of the year. That being said, the Texans look good too, but given the size of the spread, I’ll go with Buffalo.’

Bears @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The good news for the Miami Dolphins is that Laremy Tunsil has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to play against the Chicage Bears. The bad news is that the Bears defence is currently ranked first in the league by DVOA and Khalil Mack has been an MVP candidate through the first four weeks of the season. Coming off their bye the Bears will be rested and looking to build on the offensive performance of their last game where Mitch Trubisky threw for six touchdowns. This is not the team that the Dolphins will exactly have chosen to try to arrest their two game losing streak against, but it’s not the worst either. The points at home are tempting but the injuries to the Dolphins worry me and with Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury and the Bears having a week to consolidate on the best performance by Trubisky so far I’m plumping for the Bears.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Even with the possibility of no Tannerhill, leaving us open to the return of Brock Osweiler…!’

Steelers @ Bengals (-2.5)

I’m really not sure about this game. The Bengals have scraped several wins this season and I’m still waiting to see how the Bengals offence holds up minus Tyler Eifert long term and whether the defence can really solidify. They host a Steelers team who got a good win against the Falcons last week and who have generally had the better of the Bengals in this bitter rivalry. The offence is top ten by DVOA and the defence looked better last week and given the history of this game I am going to make the emotional hedge of backing the Steelers and hoping to be proven wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

‘The Steelers are a bit of a mess at the minute… and if the Bengals can play how they did for the second half of last week, they should do this fairly easily.’

Chargers @ Browns (+0.5)

This should be an entertaining game as the LA Chargers and their third ranked offence by DVOA travel to face a two win Browns team and their second ranked by DVOA defence. I can see why Hue Jackson is trying to keep his team grounded but it’s just good to see the long suffering Cleveland fans excited about their quarterback. This is not an easy journey for the Chargers who seem to specialise in close games but are traveling cross country to play an early game and in front of an energised stadium I’m tempted by the Browns but there is a huge gap between them in rankings and Philip Rivers just has me backing the Chargers. I think…

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Browns

‘They’ve kept it close all season in Cleveland. I think they’ll win this week.’

Colts @ Jets (-2.5)

This is a strange game for me to pick as the New York Jets have been up and down all season and last week rookie Sam Darnold throwing three touchdowns as the Jets beat the Broncos. This week they face an Indianapolis Colts team coming off a long week following their Thursday night loss to the Patriots. Andrew Luck continues to look good as the Colts continue to compete every week and have several times made the games closer than the scores might suggest. As a consequence, I’m finding this one a little hard to pick but with the Jets at home and only needing a field goal to win I’m going for the Jets and let’s see how I do.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘This is close. Tough pick…. I think I’m going to go with New York purely because they’ve got the home advantage.’

Seahawks @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks may not have got back to winning ways at home last week, but they made the LA Rams really work for their victory and are definitely beginning to look like they are establishing Pete Carroll’s old template of tough defence and running the ball. This may not be your legion of boom defence but I like them going against an Oakland Raiders team who have not looked good this season and who look slow on defence. I could be wrong, particularly as the fact that this game is the first in London this year throws the home/road situation into flux, but I just fancy the Seahawks to keep themselves in the playoff mix with a win this week.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

‘Unfortunately for the Raiders, I think they’re going to go 0-2 at Wembley here. I’m going for the Seahawks, but as with all of the Wembley games, it really could go either way.’

Cardinals @ Vikings (-10.5)

The Minnesota Vikings got back to winning ways last week and now host an Arizona Cardinals team who got their own first win. In fact the Cardinals have a top ten defence by DVOA and have quietly only lost the two games before that by two and three points. I don’t think they can suddenly turn the Vikings over on the road but this is too many points for a team that are still righting themselves after a difficult start, even if they do have a genuine home advantage.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

‘The Vikings will win this one, but I don’t think it’ll be by more thank 10.5 points, so I’ll go with the Cards.’

Panthers @ Washington (-1.5)

In something of a theme for this week I am really unsure about this game. We last saw Washington getting thrashed by a New Orleans Saints offence that seemed to have exactly the right mix of deception and skill on offence to expose their defence. It was bad enough that Josh Norman got sat but the Panthers are a different team on offence and this season have a surprisingly lowly rated defence. They had a tough time last week, needing a sixty-three yard field goal to beat the struggling Giants and so I really have no idea on what I can rely on in this game. That said I have more faith in what Norv Turner and Cam Newton are building on offence and with Thomas Davis coming back from a PED suspension for the defence I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

‘Hmmm… I really don’t know which way to go here… I think I’m going to call it as a Panthers win, but I don’t feel confident about it.’

Rams @ Broncos (+6.5)

So having had a tough time on the road in Seattle, the LA Rams now roll into Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Seahawks demonstrated a formula for beating the Rams, even if they couldn’t pull off the upset and the Broncos actually have the number one ranked rush attack by DVOA so they have half of the Seahawk’s formula down. The problem is that this is not the Denver defence of recent seasons and can Von Miller get enough pressure to disrupt the rolling Rams offence? The Rams seemed to cope with two of their starting receivers leaving the game with concussions last week but both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp have cleared concussion protocol and will play this week. The question is can they beat this big line, which they have done four times already this season, but on the road in Denver I do wonder if they might come unstuck but given that this pits the league’s third ranked team in points scored per game versus the twenty-second ranked team in points allowed per game, I’m going to back the Rams.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

‘Rams are going to continue their unbeaten run this week, going 6-0 against the Broncos.’

Jaguars @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys lost last week in overtime and this week they welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team whose third ranked defence by DVOA has the players to make life very difficult for a static offence who asks its receivers to win one on one matchups and whose offensive line and run game are not dominating as they have in recent years. What gives them a chance however is that Blake Bortles has pretty much been peak Bortles this year, with up and down performances that can’t be helped by Leonard Fournette’s injuries. I think the Jaguars are the better team but coming off a difficult road loss to the Chiefs but I do wonder if a second road game might suffer the same problem yet I can’t quite bring myself to back the Cowboys pulling off the upset despite getting points at home.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

‘Another close one, but I think the Cowboys will do this. Zeke’s back on form so I think he’ll have a good one this week.’

Ravens @ Titans (+2.5)

So the Tennessee Titans are back home this week and facing a Baltimore Ravens team having lost on the road to the Buffalo Bills the week before. Last week I argued that the Titans’ offence looked to have turned a corner but that didn’t hold true and this week they face a Ravens’ defence that are top five in the league by DVOA, which they have paired with a mid-ranked offence and slightly lower special teams ranking than usual. The Ravens may have lost to the Cleveland Browns last week, but they are used to the scrappy games the Titans have been playing all season but there are six home underdogs this week and so far I have backed the road favourite in each game. I have a feeling not all of those are going to come in and the Titans look to be the best bet to cover for me so I’m going to grab them at home and hope…

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

‘Other than the Dolphins game in week one, Tennessee sound like they’re doing some good things this year. I’ll go for them this week against Baltimore.’

Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am really excited about this matchup that pits the Andy Reid’s high flying unbeaten team against a Patriots that turned the corner at the beginning of October and who have won two straight pretty convincingly whilst scoring thirty-eight points. They need to do this given that their defence ranks nineteenth by DVOA but that is positively stratospheric compared to the Chiefs’ ranking of twenty-eighth. Something has to give and it just feels more likely that the Chiefs will end up 5-1 than the Patriots falling back to 3-3 despite the fact that the Chiefs won this very game last season, although that was in week one and the Patriots went on to the Super Bowl. I’m backing Brady and Belichick with revenge on the mind although I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

‘Wow, this should be a good one. Unfortunately for Kansas (and everyone fighting to keep up in the AFC East!) I think they’re going to get their first loss this week. I’m calling Patriots.’

49ers @ Packers (-9.5)

This game looked a very different fixture when the TV games were selected, but whilst CJ Beathard has not been a terrible replacement quarterback for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, it is hard to see the 49ers getting much on the road against the Packers. The question though is can they keep this game to within ten and that is trickier as Aaron Rodgers has been pretty unimpressed with how the offence has been playing as he fights the knee injury that has hobbled him for most of the season. The Packers are coming off a loss to the Detroit Packers, who interestingly now have three straight wins over the Packers but we have to go back to 2015 for the last time these two team faced each other and 2012 for the 49ers to be making a trip to Lambeau Field. A big part of last week’s Packers loss was Mason Crosby missing four field goal attempts and an extra point and that is likely to be on his mind in this nationally televised game. I’m really not sure how the Packers are going to look this week and whilst I expect them to win, the ten points require this feels like too many even if they are at home. I’m going back and forth but I’ve kept getting bitten by big lines this season but the 49ers just lost by ten points to the Cardinals at home and so I’m risking the Packers.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

‘I just cant back the Packers by 10 points here. It’s too much of a big spread, even with the 49ers not being great.’

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 6

11 Thursday Oct 2018

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Well, I managed to drop another point back in the trivia competition with Dan and just about managed to stay ahead of him in the picks competition whilst slipping back into a losing overall record. Time to re-evaluate my process but just because I was wrong doesn’t necessarily mean the picks were.

Gee:     Week 5   4-11              Overall   38-40
Dan:    Week 5   7-8                Overall   36-42

Eagles @ Giants (+2.5)

So the week six Thursday night game pits two divisional foes against each and both are struggling for different reasons. The Giants offence continues to struggle with Eli Manning unable to turnaround his form of recent seasons despite the moves over the summer and the defence currently ranks down in the twenties by DVOA. The Eagles were struggling with injuries even before they lost Jay Ajayi for the season with an ACL tear and whilst their defence is holding in with a ranking of eleventh by DVOA, the offence has not found a rhythm and is currently ranked twenty-fourth.

My first instinct is that the Eagles will find a way to win this game but what makes me hesitate is that the Giants put a very credible effort up against the Panthers, are at home on a Thursday night, and are getting points. I think this game is too important for the Eagles to lose having already lost two straight and with them only needing a field goal to cover I’m going to back them on the road, but with the way things have been going I would hardly be surprised if the Giants managed to cover or win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Eagles

Week 6 Trivia

‘In Week 5 I asked who kicked the longest field goal of the 2017/18 season.

Good answers all round, I can see the logic in both but this time the point goes to Dan.

Strangely when Panthers’ Graham Gano slotted a 63yd game winning FG against the Giants in Week 5 he eclipsed last season’s best kick and notched one of the longest in history (in a game NOT practice). I feel a BONUS question coming on!

Eyes down for Week 6 then:

I don’t remember asking any questions so far about College Football yet its popularity is huge. Just this once I will allow the use of Google, just this once:

Which college has produced the most Hall of Famers in pro football?

OK so here comes the promised Week 6 BONUS and this one is for 2 points so we can get the scoreboard ticking:

Who holds the in-game record all time FG distance and what is it?’

Week Six Picks

15 Sunday Oct 2017

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So thanks to me being away this weekend, I’m suffering from a bit of a time crunch so I’m trying something for this week only, and will be writing a sentence for each game and giving you our picks, and if you’re seeing this the plan worked.

Dolphins @ Falcons (-11.5)

The Miami Dolphins take their okay defence and misfiring offence on the road to face the Falcons in Atlanta and it feels like the only question is whether this is too many points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bears @ Ravens (-7.5)

I’m not convinced that the Baltimore Ravens can cover these points just because they put up points against a bad Raiders defence last week and so I’m backing the Chicago Bears to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Browns @ Texans (-9.5)

The Houston Texans have lost two key players on defence whilst finding a quarterback so it feels like they will be in a lot of shoot outs for the rest of the season and this is a lot of points to cover, but it is against the Cleveland Browns at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Lions @ Saints (-4.5)

This looks to be a cracking game as the Detroit Lions take their top ten ranked defence to face Drew Brees in the Super Dome and I’m really not sure who is going to win so I’ll grab the points in what feels like a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Packers @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Green Bay Packers will always have a chance with Aaron Rodger as their quarterback despite their injuries, but Minnesota Vikings are a tough team even if they don’t have their starting quarterback so this is a pick that is all about getting a chance to pick a home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The New England Patriots travel with their high flying offence and a defence that is ranked last in the NFL by DVOA to face the New York Jets who have earned more respect than this line is giving them.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

49ers @ Washington (-9.5)

After their opening week loss to the Panthers the San Francisco 49ers have not lost by more than three points and so this line feels a little high even if Washington have been playing well in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Rams @ Jaguars (-2.5)

This game sees two teams with winning records that you might not have predicted before the season face each other with the LA Rams improved offence taking on a Jacksonville Jaguars defence that is ranked first in the league by DVOA and so despite my worries over their offence I’m backing the Jags.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I’m really not convinced that the addition of Adrian Peterson to the Arizona Cardinals will help solve their offensive problem s and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers really need to get themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Steelers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offence has not flowed properly this season, and I’m just not sure that a trip to Arrowhead stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs is the game for them to turn things around.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Raiders (-6.5)

There’s talk that the Oakland Raiders will have Derek Carr back despite only being a week removed from fracturing the transverse process in his back, but the LA Chargers have got their first win of the season and have kept nearly all of their games closer than this.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Giants @ Broncos (-12.5)

The New York Giants are falling apart and travelling to Denver to face the Broncos defence with mass injuries in your receiver group does not look like a formula for success.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Colts @ Titans (-3.5)

This is a game that the Tennessee Titans have to win to get things back on track having lost badly to the Texans and then followed that up by losing a winnable game against the Dolphins, but the Indianapolis Colts are the second worst team in the NFL by DVOA so they stand a good chance.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:           Colts

Week Six Picks

16 Sunday Oct 2016

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So last week saw an improvement in both our picks as Dan narrowed the gap between us, and then we both promptly got the Thursday night game wrong so I’m not exactly feel confident as we head into today’s games. I am going to try not to say the points make me nervous in every game, but I do not like the lines at all this week.

Gee:      Week 5   7-7                       Overall   34-43
Dan:      Week 5   9-5                       Overall   31-46

49ers @ Bills (-7.5)

The 49ers are starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback this week on the road, but I’m not sure that this is going to do much for the team overall considering the number of problems across their roster. The Bills have won three straight, and with LeSean McCoy going up against the twenty-third ranked rush defence by DVOA, I’m going to back them to continue this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Jaguars @ Bears (-2.5)

The Jaguars are coming off a bye having got their first win of the season in London, but they need to kick on if they are to rescue their season. The Bears also only have one win, and pushed the Colts late in Indianapolis, but whilst I don’t have a lot of confidence in either team, I am going to back what looks like the more talented roster right now.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Bengals @ Patriots (-9.5)

There is a lot of work to do in Cincinnati and unfortunately the Bengals are on the road again as the start of the season certainly hasn’t been conducive to the number of changed parts they have on offence. I am at the stage where I am just hoping for a competitive performance, but this is the wrong team to be facing with the struggles they are having. I hope to be proved wrong but I don’t think they will cover even this spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Browns @ Titans (-6.5)

The Browns travel to Tennessee looking for their first win, and I’m not sure that it is coming on the road and likely not to a team who just beat the Dolphins pretty convincingly. The Titans defence continues to stay in the top ten, and whilst they are limited in the passing game on offence, I think they have enough to cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Rams @ Lions (-3.5)

I really don’t know how to pick this one as the Rams have failed at all to convince on offence whilst doing enough on defence to go 3-2. Meanwhile the Lions have looked good on offence for stretches, but have had problems on defence. They are even next to each other in the Football Outsiders rankings and I really feel like I am pulling one out at random so I will back the team with the quarterback I trust more playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Steelers @ Dolphins (+7.5)

The Steelers roll into Miami and I only see this going one way. This could mean that the Steelers lay an egg, and nothing would please me more than for the Steelers to lose and Dan see his team win, but I think this is going to be a hard watch for him.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Panthers @ Saints (+2.5)

One of these teams has to win and I’m just not sure which. The Panthers have really been struggling on offence whilst the defence has slipped from their outstanding standard of last year. Drew Brees will do Drew Brees things, particularly against this retooled Panthers’ secondary, but the Saint’s defence is awful. This feels like a pick based on last year, but with possibly Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart returning I will back the Panthers to get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Ravens @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants are not functioning well on either side of the ball at the moment, whilst the Ravens are coming of a two game losing streak. The offence has not played well, and we will have to see what effect firing the offensive coordinator has, but I have more faith in the Ravens playing a close game as it is what they do and I am still not sure how they didn’t beat Washington last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Eagles @ Washington (+1.5)

Washington have turned around a bad start to the season by winning their last three games, and they welcome an Eagles team who saw the first rookie type play from Carson Wentz last week. Still, at 3-1 the Eagles still have had a good start to the season and I have a feeling they will get things back on track this week as I think they are the better team, which is backed by their standings by DVOA

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Chiefs @ Raiders (-1.5)

The Raiders have won a lot of close games and people are questioning if this is sustainable, but they have also won three games on the road, which is a definite improvement for a team who had not travelled well in recent years. The Chargers found a new way to lose to them last week, but after Thursday night’s win over the Broncos, the Charger have confirmed they are a better team than their record might suggest. The Chiefs are struggling on offence and facing the Raiders defence should certainly help. They are also coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has a great record coming off the bye, but I have a bit more faith in the Raiders’ ability to generate the points they need this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Falcons @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I think this should be a cracking game as the Falcons excellent offence meets the number one defence by DVOA in Seattle. That said, it is a pretty brutal road trip to have to go to Denver to play the Broncos then go to Seattle to face the Seahawks. I actually think that Seattle will win the game, but I think it will be closer than seven points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Cowboys @ Packers (-4.5)

The Cowboys excellent run offence meets the Packers excellent run defence in what looks to be a fascinating matchup. The Cowboys defence had a good day against the Bengals, and I was really impressed with Morris Claiborne but they are not facing a line with the protection issues that the Bengals have had this season. The Packers’ offence showed in the first half what it was capable of, but things haven’t quite clicked through a whole game. I think this will be close than the line suggests and with Dak Prescott hardly ever turning the ball over I think the Cowboys will at least keep this closer than five points..

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Colts @ Texans (-3.5)

The Colts have not looked good this season, but they have the connection between Andrew Luck and TY Hilton, whereas the Texans have lost JJ Watt for the season and are ranked dead last in offence by DVOA. There may only be four places between them in their overall DVOA ranking, but the actual percentage is nearly twice as bad for the Texans and so I am worriedly backing the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jets @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals might have found a bit of a template for themselves last week as they rode David Johnson for one hundred and fifty-seven yards on the ground and should be getting Carson Palmer back this week. If they can keep the running game going against a Jets team who are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball then they should run out easy winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Going Past the Quarter Pole

13 Thursday Oct 2016

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So now that week five is in the books, and every team has played at least four games, I’m happy to take a look at the first quarter of the season and take a first look at how the divisions are shaping up.

AFC East

It is a familiar team at the top of this division with the New England Patriots only dropping one game during Tom Brady’s four game suspension and he returned in remarkable form, throwing four hundred yards in the Patriot’s win over the Browns, considering he has not been allowed to practice with the team during his suspension. I could really do without the Bengals visiting them this week, and I suspect the Patriots are going to challenge once more for a title.

The Buffalo Bills are only a surprising game back from the Patriots having won three in a row after a poor start and firing their offensive coordinator. They will be hoping to push for the playoffs now that both sides of the ball are coming together, which already looks out of sight for the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins who have both fallen to 1-4. The Jets defence is surprisingly poor, whilst their offence is struggling through a combination of injury and poor play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets’ roster was one of the oldest last season and this appears to be catching up with them this year. For the Miami Dolphins, the problems seem to do with roster construction and so with a defence that is under performing, and an offensive line that can’t protect their quarterback, it looks to be a long season for fans of the Dolphins as they try to find something they can build from.

AFC North

The Pittsburgh Steelers suffered a blip at the Philadelphia Eagles in week three, but otherwise have sailed through the first quarter of their season. An offence that was scary even before star running back Le’Veon Bell returned from suspension, becomes downright terrifying when you combine an elite quarterback, arguably the best running back and the best receiver in the game. They have also dug out another deep threat in receiver Sammie Coates, and pair all this offensive potency with a defence that is bending and not breaking and they look to be one of the elite teams in the league.

The Baltimore Ravens stand second in the division, and arguably could be 4-1 as they really should have beat Washington on Sunday, but between giving up a punt return for a touchdown and CJ Mosely making an interception and fumbling the ball stretching for a touchdown and having it go through the end zone so Washington got the ball back, they managed to lose. The question for the Ravens is how good they really are as their first three games were wins over modest opposition, and they have now lost two straight and just fired their offensive coordinator (a job with even less security than normal this season).

The Bengals are a similarly hard to pin down team this season having fallen to a 2-3 record. They have had a tough start to the season, and a trip to New England is hardly what they need right now, but the problems seem to the combination of a new offensive coordinator and new parts on offensive leading to yards but not points, whilst the defence was surprisingly poor against the Dallas Cowboys last week. The schedule will even out, but they can’t fall back much more behind the pace if they want to get back to the playoffs and break the longest playoff win drought in the league. I’m not in full panic mode yet, but I am pretty concerned.

The Cleveland Browns were always in for a long season, but the sheer number of injuries is a story in of itself as even when a young draft pick like receiver Corey Coleman starts to look promising, he breaks a hand in training. Meanwhile, five separate players have taken snaps at quarterback including the real bright spot of their season Terrelle Pryor, who has done everything that he possibly can for this team. The number of wins was always going to be low, and the Browns are playing really hard for Hue Jackson in his first year, but it looks like it is going to be a while before this team turn things around.

AFC South

The Houston Texans stand a top of their division despite losing JJ Watt for the year and Brock Osweiler throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. I’m sure that Bill O’Brien cares more than he said to the press as the Texans paid a lot of money to go out and get their man, and have put plenty of options around him, but it hasn’t clicked yet.

The Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans are both 2-3 but are having different seasons. The Titans have built a tough defence that currently ranks seventh in the league by DVOA, and have been getting by with what they turned an exotic smash-mouth offence. This has been uneven in results due to the limitations of their receivers and some inaccuracy from Marcus Mariota, but they got something of statement win over the Dolphins last week and we will have to see how they go. Meanwhile the Colts are in the race for the division thanks to Andrew Luck and TY Hilton, but there are problems all over for the roster and GM Ryan Grigson can complain all he like about being hampered by Luck’s new contract, it was him who was drafting and building the team around Luck whilst he was on his rookie contract so I don’t have a lot of sympathy with that one.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the most disappointing teams in the league for me, having been looking at finally breaking out, their defence played better but offence has struggled and they didn’t win a game until their trip to London in week four. They are only two games back on the Texans and so could pull themselves back into contention, but they will really need to push on with Blake Bortles needing to take a step to get back to how he played last year before he can start leading this offence to better performances.

AFC West

The Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders stand atop the division at 4-1 and could well be duking it out until the end of the season. The Raiders are playing offence as well as anyone in the league whilst waiting for their defence to come together. The connection between in Derrek Car and his receivers has led to eleven passing touchdowns and only two interceptions, with Amari Cooper snagging over four hundred and fifty yards whilst Michael Crabtree has caught five touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been playing very good defence and doing enough on offence. The Broncos run defence has suffered a little with the changes in personnel, but only time will tell if the Falcons found something that other teams can exploit in their week five win or if the Broncos defence bounce back.

The Kansas City Chiefs may only be 2-2, but after the rescue job that Andy Reid pulled off last season, I would not count them out yet. They are rumbling along, but their defence is struggling to rush the pass a bit and are missing Justin Houston, whilst the offence Is struggling  with a ranking by DVOA of twenty-fith. That said, Jamaal Charles is still working his way back from the season ending injury he had last year and they still have time to turn things round.

Everything seems to be going wrong for the San Diego Chargers, who could have a better record than 1-4 if they had managed to hold on to the ball in few more key situations. They again seem to be severely bitten by the injury bug, losing a starter for the season in each of the first three games, and the injuries have continued to pile up. It’s not that they have not been competitive, but they keep finding new ways to lose and it looks like another underwhelming season for a franchise who are one of the lucky ones to have a franchise quarterback.

NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys lost Tony Romo in preseason to a fractured vertebrae, but all the noises from Jerry Jones is that he will be the starter once he is fit. However, unlike last season which fell apart in Romo’s absence, the Cowboys have gone 4-1 behind excellent rookie quarterback Dak Prescott who has yet to throw an interception, and whilst his yardage numbers are not that impressive, he is winning games and is also a threat on the ground. After a slightly slow opening pair of games, Ezekial Elliott has run off three straight 100+ yard games for a total of five hundred and forty-six yards and five touchdowns. Add to this a defence that is doing enough and the Cowboys look to have found a sustainable winning formula. I’m still not sure that Romo should come back, but if he does get injured they have a player with plenty of early success to step in.

The Philadelphia Eagles may have dropped a game to the Detroit Lions last week, but at 3-1 they are already ahead of schedule thanks to a defence that is already playing well under first year coordinator Jim Schwartz and the play of rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. In a rare trade that was a win for both sides, the Eagles sent Sam Bradford to the Vikings for a first round pick with more to come if Bradford continues to play well, which meant Wentz was made the starter and he already looks at home. The coaching staff has done a great job of putting Wentz in a position to succeed, but he’s been in complete control of the offence and only threw his first interception against the Lions last week. The Eagles have been one of the surprises of the season and I could easily see them challenging in this division for the rest of the year.

It has been a season of ups and downs in Washington, but after a slow start they have won three straight and slowly dragged their season around. It looked like Kirk Cousins was possibly pressing at the start of the season, or he could just be a streaky quarterback. They were slightly lucky to win against the Ravens last week, but they will be hoping that they can keep in the hunt going forward.

The New York Giants got off to a solid start but haven’t been able to sustain it, losing their last three games. The NFL media are obsessing over Odell Beckham’s outbursts, but with an anaemic running game and Eli Manning struggling in the passing game, the offence is not flowing and the defence appears to be regressing after a promising opening couple of games. It is too early to read too much into this record, but I always thought there was more wrong with the Giants than Tom Coughlin’s coaching (which had previously netted them two Super Bowl wins over the Patriots and so I was very sceptical when he was fired and everyone else kept their jobs) and it looks like I may be proven correct in the long term.

NFC North

The Minnesota Vikings are the only unbeaten team in the league, despite a number of high quality starters getting injured, including Teddy Bridgewater in a pre-season injury that was so bad it stopped practice. However, plaudits must go to both the coaching staff for the job in getting them ready, and to GM Rick Spielman who went out and got Sam Bradford in a trade with the Eagles. It was criticised at the time due to the price he payed, but it seems that he was right to believe he had a team capable of challenging for a Super Bowl, and with a new stadium that is proving to be a hostile place for visiting teams, the Viking look to be set to go deep into the playoffs despite the injuries.

The Green Bay Packer meanwhile, have assembled a very respectable 3-1 record despite having a certain amount of their problems from last year roll over into this season. The offence is improving, but still seems very reliant on Jordy Nelson, whilst the defence has improved markedly against the run whilst struggling occasionally to defend the pass. This is not helped by corner Sam Shield still being in the concussion protocol and you begin to wonder how long he may be able to continue to play. Still, with Aaron Rodgers you should be competitive most year and we will just have to see how the team develops in the coming weeks.

The Detroit Lions have been up and down as they gone 2-3, with a defence that is struggling again as injuries has hampered them, whilst the offence has continued its progress under Jim Bob Cooter with Marvin Jones playing very well having turned down the Bengals to get a bigger role.

The Chicago Bears are propping up the division on 1-4 and have a frightening number of players injured, which has included Jay Culter and with Bryan Hoyer throwing for six touchdowns and no interceptions it feels like a quarterback controversy could be brewing. There are bits of this team that look like it might come together at some point, but they are ways away from competing for the playoffs, but their fans will be hoping to see something that shows they are building towards winning.

NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons have the best ranked offence by DVOA in the NFL and have ridden this to a 4-1 as they come into a stretch that will really prove if they are for real this year. An excellent offensive game plan and a good enough defence was enough to beat Denver this week, but they have stayed out west as they now travel to Seattle as part of a fearsome road trip to two of the hardest places to visit in the NFL. They will be hoping to avoid the huge dip in form they had last season, but Matt Ryan has looked a lot more comfortable in this second year in Kyle Shanahan’s offence with a much more balanced array of options open to him, and whilst I wasn’t expecting this happen, they are making me a believer this year. I am really looking forward to seeing them this weekend and going forward.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are really struggling this year, yet are somehow second in the division with a 2-3 record, with both wins coming against divisional opponents. However, they have not been convincing with questions surrounding the running of a team that thought it was a good idea to trade up in round two to pick a kicker.  The offence hasn’t continued from where it was last year with Dirk Koetter stepping up to head coach and making some poor game management decisions. This is another team that we’ll have to see how they progress through the season but I am not convinced that they are going to improve that much.

Both the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers have only win with the Saints going 1-3 and the Panthers a miserable 1-4. It is a familiar tale in New Orleans with Drew Brees producing but not being surrounded with enough talent to win. It is not unusual for the team who lost the Super Bowl to struggle next season, but I don’t think anyone was expecting quite this fall off. The injury to running back Jonathan Stuart and Cam Newton picking up a concussion are part of a worrying trend on offence, but perhaps the biggest surprise is the defence. The front seven are basically the same, but the secondary features three rookies playing in the rotation and the decision to let Josh Norman doesn’t look to be paying off anytime soon. I don’t think anyone was expecting the team who went 15-1 last season to look like this, but that’s why you play the games.

NFC West

The Seattle Seahawks have almost quietly got themselves a 3-1 record to lead the NFC West. The big worry for me going into the season was their offence, and specifically the offensive line, but despite getting Russell Wilson injured they have managed to do enough to win. In his second season in Seattle Jimmy Graham is finally beginning to look himself, whilst the defence looks as strong as ever. The Seahawks are once again near the top of the DVOA rankings, and their solitary loss was the now seemingly annual defeat by the Rams.

The Rams have moved to LA, picked a quarterback first who hasn’t even sniffed the field, but they have gone 3-2 off the back of defence that is playing well and not a lot else. The offence is struggling once more in the passing game, whilst the big play reliant Todd Gurley is not finding the big plays that covered up his lack of consistency last season. They are trying to avoid 7-9 agricultural manure football, but it feels they might end up there or there abouts.

The Arizona Cardinals have got off to surprisingly bad start. The offence has been misfiring on offence, with Carson Palmer not finding the deep ball regularly even before his concussion. In David Johnson they have one of the best running backs in the league, and it looks like they may need to rely on him a bit more if they are to turn round the season. They are only 2-3, but they will need to find some consistency if they are to get to where they want to go, and where everyone expected them to be. On a personal note, Larry Fitzgerald continues to be the prototypical receiver and human being that everyone should aspire to be.

It is not surprising that the San Francisco 49ers are propping up the division given the upheaval of their roster a year ago. There is not a lot to write home about, and the loss of NaVorro Bowman was particularly sad given how hard he had worked to come back from last season’s horrible knee injury where basically everything in his knee was torn apart. The big offseason news was Colin Kaepernick’s refusal to stand for the national anthem, which has developed into a series of protests across the league and looks to be spreading to other sport. Kaepernick will be making his first start of the season this weekend and he will want to provide a spark to an offence that has struggled under Blaine Gabbert, but there are bound to be those looking to write stories about how the off the field situation affects his on field play, and the only way to silence that will be to play well. Given that he has played in a Super Bowl, the fall over the last couple of seasons was steep and I for one would like to see him turn things round.

 

And now onto tonight’s game:

Broncos @ Chargers (+3.5)

The Broncos may have lost last week, but are facing a very different team in the Chargers, and with all the ways that they are finding to lose and the injuries I can only pick one way in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos