So last week saw an improvement in both our picks as Dan narrowed the gap between us, and then we both promptly got the Thursday night game wrong so I’m not exactly feel confident as we head into today’s games. I am going to try not to say the points make me nervous in every game, but I do not like the lines at all this week.

Gee:      Week 5   7-7                       Overall   34-43
Dan:      Week 5   9-5                       Overall   31-46

49ers @ Bills (-7.5)

The 49ers are starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback this week on the road, but I’m not sure that this is going to do much for the team overall considering the number of problems across their roster. The Bills have won three straight, and with LeSean McCoy going up against the twenty-third ranked rush defence by DVOA, I’m going to back them to continue this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Jaguars @ Bears (-2.5)

The Jaguars are coming off a bye having got their first win of the season in London, but they need to kick on if they are to rescue their season. The Bears also only have one win, and pushed the Colts late in Indianapolis, but whilst I don’t have a lot of confidence in either team, I am going to back what looks like the more talented roster right now.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Bengals @ Patriots (-9.5)

There is a lot of work to do in Cincinnati and unfortunately the Bengals are on the road again as the start of the season certainly hasn’t been conducive to the number of changed parts they have on offence. I am at the stage where I am just hoping for a competitive performance, but this is the wrong team to be facing with the struggles they are having. I hope to be proved wrong but I don’t think they will cover even this spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Browns @ Titans (-6.5)

The Browns travel to Tennessee looking for their first win, and I’m not sure that it is coming on the road and likely not to a team who just beat the Dolphins pretty convincingly. The Titans defence continues to stay in the top ten, and whilst they are limited in the passing game on offence, I think they have enough to cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Rams @ Lions (-3.5)

I really don’t know how to pick this one as the Rams have failed at all to convince on offence whilst doing enough on defence to go 3-2. Meanwhile the Lions have looked good on offence for stretches, but have had problems on defence. They are even next to each other in the Football Outsiders rankings and I really feel like I am pulling one out at random so I will back the team with the quarterback I trust more playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Steelers @ Dolphins (+7.5)

The Steelers roll into Miami and I only see this going one way. This could mean that the Steelers lay an egg, and nothing would please me more than for the Steelers to lose and Dan see his team win, but I think this is going to be a hard watch for him.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Panthers @ Saints (+2.5)

One of these teams has to win and I’m just not sure which. The Panthers have really been struggling on offence whilst the defence has slipped from their outstanding standard of last year. Drew Brees will do Drew Brees things, particularly against this retooled Panthers’ secondary, but the Saint’s defence is awful. This feels like a pick based on last year, but with possibly Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart returning I will back the Panthers to get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Ravens @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants are not functioning well on either side of the ball at the moment, whilst the Ravens are coming of a two game losing streak. The offence has not played well, and we will have to see what effect firing the offensive coordinator has, but I have more faith in the Ravens playing a close game as it is what they do and I am still not sure how they didn’t beat Washington last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Eagles @ Washington (+1.5)

Washington have turned around a bad start to the season by winning their last three games, and they welcome an Eagles team who saw the first rookie type play from Carson Wentz last week. Still, at 3-1 the Eagles still have had a good start to the season and I have a feeling they will get things back on track this week as I think they are the better team, which is backed by their standings by DVOA

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Chiefs @ Raiders (-1.5)

The Raiders have won a lot of close games and people are questioning if this is sustainable, but they have also won three games on the road, which is a definite improvement for a team who had not travelled well in recent years. The Chargers found a new way to lose to them last week, but after Thursday night’s win over the Broncos, the Charger have confirmed they are a better team than their record might suggest. The Chiefs are struggling on offence and facing the Raiders defence should certainly help. They are also coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has a great record coming off the bye, but I have a bit more faith in the Raiders’ ability to generate the points they need this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Falcons @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I think this should be a cracking game as the Falcons excellent offence meets the number one defence by DVOA in Seattle. That said, it is a pretty brutal road trip to have to go to Denver to play the Broncos then go to Seattle to face the Seahawks. I actually think that Seattle will win the game, but I think it will be closer than seven points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Cowboys @ Packers (-4.5)

The Cowboys excellent run offence meets the Packers excellent run defence in what looks to be a fascinating matchup. The Cowboys defence had a good day against the Bengals, and I was really impressed with Morris Claiborne but they are not facing a line with the protection issues that the Bengals have had this season. The Packers’ offence showed in the first half what it was capable of, but things haven’t quite clicked through a whole game. I think this will be close than the line suggests and with Dak Prescott hardly ever turning the ball over I think the Cowboys will at least keep this closer than five points..

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Colts @ Texans (-3.5)

The Colts have not looked good this season, but they have the connection between Andrew Luck and TY Hilton, whereas the Texans have lost JJ Watt for the season and are ranked dead last in offence by DVOA. There may only be four places between them in their overall DVOA ranking, but the actual percentage is nearly twice as bad for the Texans and so I am worriedly backing the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jets @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals might have found a bit of a template for themselves last week as they rode David Johnson for one hundred and fifty-seven yards on the ground and should be getting Carson Palmer back this week. If they can keep the running game going against a Jets team who are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball then they should run out easy winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals