Category Archives: Season Goodbyes

Fallen at the First Hurdle

15 Friday Jan 2021

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs, Season Goodbyes

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The first ‘Super’ Wild Card weekend certainly provided plenty off football to watch, a couple of upsets and plenty to digest. As usual I will be saying goodbye to the losing teams, and for this post in the order they were knocked out so let’s take a look at the six who fell at the first playoff hurdle.

The cap numbers for next season still come from spotrac.com and the ranking/numbers were right at time of posting with an assumed team salary cap of $175 million.

Indianapolis Colts

This season the top of the AFC was so competitive that a ten win team did not make the playoffs and the Colts were seeded seventh despite an 11-5 record and ranking tenth overall by DVOA. It would have been no mean feat to go into Buffalo and beat the number two seed Bills in their own stadium, even if the long suffering but vociferus Buffalo fans were not present to cheer on what they would hope with be the first playoff win since 1995, but sadly for the Colt it was just not to be. There’s an argument that the Colts played better for large parts of this game, they had the ball for longer, outgained the Bills and their defence prevented the Bills from running up the kinds of scores they had over the last quarter of the season but sadly for the Colts, the Bills ability to put up points quickly saw them eek out the 27-24. I have been impressed with the job GM Chirs Ballard has done since he joined the franchise, which has not been easy given the injury status of Andrew Luck when Ballard took the job in 2017 and then had to deal with Luck’s retirement in 2019 just before the season. In that time the team had become competitive and with the addition of Frank Reich the Colts have won double digit games when they have had a true franchise quarterback. This is hardly a surprise but I mention it because the singing of Philip Rivers canonly be short term with him mulling retirement and as good as the Colts were this season, they really need to find a long term solution at quarterback. Their left tackle, the ten year vet Anthony Castonzo is retiring so there are a couple of key decisions coming up on offence this off-season. Rivers may decide to come back for another year, and the good news is that right now the Colts have the third most cap space going into 2021, but whether they can find the right pieces I don’t know. I trust Frank Reich as a head coach to keep this team competitive as he has managed that from the moment he got there, despite taking the job very late in the process and inheriting a stage that was assembled by Josh McDaniels before McDaniels pulled out of the job. However, if the Colts are to truly challenge, they need to sort the two key positions of quarterback and left tackle and whilst I admire Ballard, that is not an easy task in one off-season.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have gone to the playoffs in all but two of his eleven seasons, but they have not got back to the conference championship game since the 2014 season and their second Super Bowl appearance. It might be considered churlish to be picking at the sustained success of the Seahawks under Carroll, but I am getting a little concerned about their current direction and I think that feeling is shared by their fans. The league has moved on since the 2013/14 and whilst the Seahawks formula is clearly still successful up to a point, this is no longer a team with an era defining defence if it is still even possible to build such a unit with the current rules. These days the clear best player on the Seahawk’s roster is quarterback Russell Wilson and after the fans’ clamour to let Russ cook was met at the start of the season, the Seahawks won their first five game with Wilson an early MPV candidate as things were humming with receiver DK Metcalf absoultely dominating in the deep passing game. However, the defence was struggling to contain offences and as teams started to play more cover two coverage against the Seahawks the offence faltered and stagnated. As the defence improved, the Seahawks fell back to running the ball more and their old familiar formula. Whilst they still won twelve games this way, the Seahawks also just got knocked out by a Rams team who started their backup John Wolford at quarterback and when he was injured early were forced to play Jared Goff who is still recovering from a fractured thumb and cleary was having problem throwing the ball. Even more concerning for me was Carroll’s talk post game of getting better at running the ball and a lot is going to depend on who is selected to be the new offensive coordinator as the franchise parted ways with current OC Brian Shottenheimer citing philosophical differences. I would love to be proved wrong and the Seahawks bring in a fresh coordinator who can diversify the passing offence whilst maintain the running game as a genuine threat as I believe that is the most successful formula in the NFL these days, but the other thing that Wilson could benefit from as a shorter quarterback is for the Seahawks to take a leaf from the Saints’ handling of Drew Brees and fortify the interior of their offensive line. However, the Seahawks have not focussed on the offensive line with the tandem of John Schneider and Pete Caroll in charge so I doubt that will be done in the off-season. Even with only $5 million under the 2021 cap I expect the Seahawks to compete again next season, but I am beginning to wonder if the Seahawks are going to put themselves in a position to maximise Russell Wilson’s prime, or if he is going to end up in a situation similar to the Packers and Aaron Rodgers where they need to refresh the coaching scheme to maximise their investment. Having read his book on coaching I have a lot of respect for Pete Carroll, but I do wonder if he is going to help get the Seahawks offence in the place it needs to be to allow him to return to the Super Bowl and for the Seahawks, that should be focus right now.

Washington Football Team

The Washington Football Team didn’t just make the playoffs but gave a credible performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and whilst they never truly troubled the Bucs, they did a lot better than the Bears who I shall be covering in a bit. Alex Smith steadied the ship and brought Washington back into playoff contention when he was made the starter at quarterback, but the Football team had to work hard to hold on to top spot in the NFC East when Smith picked up a calf strain yet they did managed to slide into the playoffs. If nothing else in the last few weeks, fringe quarterback Taylor Heinicke who had one career start going into Saturday’s game, hadn’t been on a NFL roster since final cuts ahead of the 2019 season, and didn’t even see the field for his XFL team last year moved the ball well enough that someone surely will sign him to take another look in the pre-season. However, Washington’s offence clearly still needs work in Washington as it ranks bottom in the league by DVOA (and let’s not forget that means it was worse than the Jets!), but in his first season Ron Rivera and his coaching staff got special teams up to fifteenth by DVOA and the defence finished third. The defence in no small part flourished with the addition of rookie defensive end Chase Young who looked every bit the top of the draft era defining pass rusher that Washington hoped for when they selected him last year. This was a very credible turnaround in one season, and there were a couple of players who caught the eye on offence, but the clear focus in the off-season is improving their quarterback play and getting their offence to at least league average. Washington have over $27 million in cap space next season and so whilst it is too early to know how far the new regime can take them, having taken a decent first step this season for the first time in a long time it feels like there is some hope that Washington can improve in consecutive seasons. My one concern is that I have said this before and been proven wrong as no regime has managed to take promise into production on the field or been given time to see a long term project through so we shall have to see what does actually happen this time. Even if you can’t bring yourself to hope yet, there is at least reason to monitor Washington’s moves this off-season and that has not been the case for many a year.

Tennessee Titans

The first team that we lost on Sunday was an upset in seeding but was one I predicted before the game although it was hardly a controversial prediction. The Tennessee Titans continued to improve their standings in the AFC South under Mike Vrabel, winning the division for the first time since he took over in 2018 as well as achieving double digit wins for the first time. That said, this season’s iteration of the team differed from last year’s in that the 2019 version were competitive across all three phases of the game whereas this season the defence improved to fourth overall by DVOA whilst both the defence and special teams regressed badly. The short-term future on offence seems secure unless they lose coordinator Arthur Smith, but much like my criticism of the Raiders, it will not matter how good their offence is if the Titans can’t get the defence up to somewhere near the league average in play. The hope would be that as defence tends to be more volatile than offence the Titan’s defence could bounce back next season, but they need to address the pass rush from somewhere and with them $5 million over next season’s cap they will have to be clever or draft well to turn that around. The right draft pick could very well help them turn the corner, but you could say that about plenty of teams in the league. Still, this is now five seasons with at least nine wins so I have no reason not to expect the Titans to compete next season. However, there is a limit to how long running back Derek Henry can maintain his currently volume of production, particularly with his physical running style and five years in the league is a long time for a running back with his kind of usage. There are always cycles for any NFL team and I just hope that the Titans maximise their current situation because it is rare for a team to have their success tied to a running back and it last for long.

Chicago Bears

The Bears were the most comprehensively beaten team of the Wild Card round, and the score would look a lot worse if it were not for a garbage time touchdown from the Bears thanks to a ridiculous one-handed catch by Jimmy Graham. However, for most of the game the Bears offence never really took off and the Saints had full control of the game. This really mirrors the Bears season where despite starting 5-1, the Bears were worried enough that having signed Nick Foles to a three-year $24 million contract in the off-season they made him the starter but as so often has been the case unless pressed into service for a limited period, Foles did not impress. This leaves the Bears in the position where Trubisky played well enough to get them into the playoffs, but not to win in a demonstration of what I call the Andy Dalton paradox. Now Trubisky isn’t as good as Dalton was at his height for the Bengals, but neither of them were able to elevate those around them on their own and with the modern rules I don’t think you can build the kind of defences that allowed the Ravens to win with a Joe Flacco or a Trent Dilfer. In a league that is segueing from Drew Brees and Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and it seems more good quarterbacks than ever before, I believe you simply must have an offence that performs to a certain standard and I think the Bears by splitting between Foles and Trubisky have ended up with no quarterback and awkward decisions to make this off-season. I do not know what they plan to do with Foles and having declined the fifth-year option for Trubisky, they now have to make decisions having invested draft capital and free-agent money without a clear path forward and who really knows what changes are the front office prepared to make to improve next season. This is particularly prescient as with their defence and special teams both ranked in top ten by DVOA, if they can sort out what is after all head coach Matt Nagy’s side of the ball in the offence, then they might be able to push on and really challenge in the playoffs. However, I am not sure about GM Ryan Pace who not only drafted Mitchell Trubisky, but traded up for the privilege to do so when it did not seem like the 49ers were going to draft a quarterback and passed over both Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in the process. It’s always easy to look back in hindsight so I do want to be careful as Pace will obviously know a lot more about player evaluation than me, but I did not like the process at the time and everyone questioned the choice of player as well as the draft capital given up. I’m not sure anyone knew what Mahomes was going to turn into, but Pace’s evaluation of the three players was clearly wrong and with one winning season in six there is no record of consistent success under the current administration. The Bears are $8 million over the draft cap so I will be following the Bears’ off-season with interest as there are some big decisions to be made, but I’m not sure about the process or the people who are making them.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The last team to finish their season on Sunday was in some ways the most surprising, but the warning signs were there, and things went wrong from the very first snap of the game for the Steelers. They may have started out 11-0, but the end of the season saw the lose five out of six games including Sunday’s Wild Card game to a team who could barely practice and were without several players as well as their play-calling head coach due to a Covid-19 break outs. The Steelers’ first snap saw nine-year veteran centre Maurkice Puncey shotgun a snap over quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s head and the Browns were first to secure the ball in the end zone and score a touchdown. By the end of the first quarter, the Steelers were down 28-0 and despite generating over five hundred yards of passing offence in the game ultimately lost 37-48. You can understand how as the defence accumulated injuries at linebacker the defence struggled late in the season, but the real problem was the balance of the offence where they could not run the ball and were overly reliant on short passing plays that required yards after the catch. Once teams had figured out how to stop this then the Steelers could not seem to adjust. They approach next season with a thirty-nine-year-old quarterback mulling retirement who is an eye watering $41 million cap hit in 2021, with $22 million in dead money if he is cut, but with the Steelers $23 million over the 2021 salary cap and with a number of free-agents there are going to be some difficult decisions. They will certainly have to be careful about who they seek to retain, though at least they have young receivers to take over if they let some of the more experienced players go. I have wondered for years about the Steelers cap management, though they usually find to way remain competitive but they have not had to think about quarterback for a long time. I think you have to be impressed at how they are run but with no obvious successor to Roethlisberger on the roster and a murky cap situation the Steelers are going to have to create a new era and there might well be some pain ahead before they get back to the kind of success we are all used to seeing in Pittsburgh. I would not bet against them coming good again soon though.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

A Goodbye to the Disappointed Twenty

05 Friday Jan 2018

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And so we say our goodbyes to the teams that didn’t make the playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

The Cardinals were basically sunk by injury, as any team are going to struggle if they lose their starting quarterback to injury early in the season and the Cardinals also loss an elite level running back in David Johnson. They go into the offseason looking for a new head coach after Bruce Arians’ retirement as well as a new starting quarterback with Carson Palmer also retiring so big changes are in progress already and no one would be surprised if veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald also retired. With so many changes it is going to be hard to predict how the Cardinals will do next season and I am sure there are going to be some very anxious fans in the offseason.

Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

The Ravens fell out of the playoffs with their last minute loss to the Bengals, and there is a lot of work to do. The Ravens defence played well although they didn’t exactly play a difficult set of quarterbacks and with the retirement of co-ordinator Dean Pees this side of the ball may not be as rock solid as in recent years. Their offence finished twenty-first in the league by DVOA and really needs to improve if they are to get back to where we would expect them to be.

Chicago Bears (5-11)

The Bears were never supposed to make the playoffs but with the performance of their offence it was decided that John Fox was not the head coach to lead them forward. The decision to extend general manager Ryan Pace despite the questionable trade up to get Mitch Trubisky and the receivers they surrounded him with seems curious but we will have to see who their new head coach is and what moves they make to the roster. I would imagine the Bears will be looking for someone to develop their offence and perhaps retain staff on what was the fourteenth ranked defence by DVOA.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)

The Bengals have decided to hold on to Marvin Lewis, which whilst I understand from the perspective of an owner who believes in continuity, but feels like a decision based on the last couple of weeks’ results and doesn’t give fans the change that many were hoping for. I have a huge amount of respect for what Lewis has done for the franchise, but the offence needs to get fixed in a hurry and the discipline of this team worries me. I would be delighted to see a turn around and playoff success next season, and I am curious to see what Bill Lazor can do with the offence now that he has been retained and has the offseason to install what he wants, but I am not convinced that a playoff win awaits in 2019 and that should be the target.

Cleveland Browns (0-16)

The Browns became the second team ever to go 0-16, but Hue Jackson has clearly persuaded somebody that it was the GM’s fault and not his. However, he will need to demonstrate clear progress next season and it’s not like the offence looked particularly good this year despite having some good talent. At 1-31 there will be a lot of pressure on Jackson if he doesn’t get off to a fast start next season but at least there are a lot of picks for new GM John Dorsey to work with. A lot is residing on these offseason moves but then it feels like that every year for the Browns.

Dallas Cowboys (9-7)

I’m sure that the Cowboys feel like the Ezekiel Elliott six week suspension cost them the playoffs, but there were signs that the offence needs more options in the passing game this season. With head coach Jason Garrett remaining it is hard to see a huge redesign of the offence, but if they truly want to compete they may have to do something on this side of the ball. Special mention goes to Rod Marinelli for co-ordinating the defence with modest resources, but it wouldn’t hurt to get him some more players either.

Denver Broncos (5-11)

The Broncos have kept Vance Joseph as their head coach but are firing a lot of his coaches. Despite the upheaval, the focus of the offseason will likely be getting a franchise quarterback, but whilst John Elway will get some time thanks to his Super Bowl win, they will need to have some free agent wins and do better in the draft than in recent years to turn things around. It is also worth noting that with roughly $24 million in cap space there would need to be some cap gymnastics if they wanted to get into the quarterback free agent market. The defence finished top ten despite repeatedly getting put into a bad position by the offence, but has taken a step back from recent years so the Broncos really need to get the offence at least league average rather than the thirty-first ranked by DVOA that they were this season.

Detroit Lions (9-7)

The Lions have fired head coach Jim Caldwell, and I would imagine this for missing the playoffs this season. On initial look this seems harsh given that Caldwell has the best winning percentage of any full time Lions’ head coach, three winning seasons and two playoff appearances. However, if you dig a little deeper you will find that his teams had a 4-23 record against teams that finished the season with a winning record and given the way his team played against the Bengals when their playoff chances were on the line it appears that GM Bob Quinn decided he wanted to hire his own coach. The improvement of Matthew Stafford under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has been noticeable and this will be an interesting team to watch in the offseason to see how they step up to the challenge of competing with the Packers and a Vikings team that look set to be competitive for the near future.

Green Bay Packers (7-9)

The Packers failed to make the playoffs for the first time in nine season and with the loss of Aaron Rodgers to a broken collar bone that may not be surprising, but it has prompted the Packers to make a number of moves that may not have happened should Rodgers been available for a few more games this year. They have let go of their defensive co-ordinator Dom Capers and some assistant coaches, but GM Ted Thompson is also moving to a different role as the front office is being re-organised. How this shakes out we do not know yet, but it is just possible that they may be a bit more active in the free agent market than in previous years whilst I am sure they will retain a commitment to drafting and developing their own players. Assuming a healthy season from Rodgers you would expect them to be in the hunt for the playoffs next year.

Houston Texans (4-12)

The Texans season crumbled thanks to injury, but there is hope for this team thanks to the play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson before his injury and if they can stay healthy the Texans should be good on both offence and defence. That’s a big if, but it they will have some stability on the coaching side as Bill O’Brien is staying as head coach but Rick Smith is stepping back from GM role to look after his wife and we’ll just have to see how things shake out for the Texans in the coming months and into next season.

Indianapolis Colts (4-12)

The Colts were never likely to do well in the first season of their rebuild but when it became clear that Andrew Luck was not going to play at all it was hard to see anything but a lost year for the franchise. Chuck Pagano never really stood a chance this season and although he did not lose his team and finished the schedule with a win, GM Chris Ballard is looking to hire his own coach. Pagano has already been approached about the vacant co-ordinator position in Baltimore and so looks like he will have work next season. A lot of the Colts’ future depends on Andrew Luck getting himself into shape to play football, and having missed the year we now have to see it to believe it but as the league doesn’t have enough good quarterbacks I think most will be hoping Luck makes it. With another offseason to build and having picked his own coach, Chris Ballard will be expecting progress next season but a lot rests on Luck’s injured shoulder.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)

The Chargers came good in the end and nearly made the playoffs, but when you start the year 0-4 it is always going to be difficult to get into the post season. The Chargers finished the season ranked eleventh overall by DVOA with an offence ranked seventh and a defence that was just outside of the top ten so if they can progress in the offseason and fix their problems at kicker then they should be competitive again next season, although time is running out for veteran quarterback Philip Rivers.

Miami Dolphins (6-10)

The Dolphins season was pretty much dead on arrival with Ryan Tannehill’s season ending injury in pre-season. Head coach Adam Gase was able to pull Jay Cutler out of the commentary booth to play again, but he wasn’t able to stop him being Jay Cutler. He flashed occasionally but threw for a modest two and a half thousand yards, ninenteen touchdowns and fourteen interceptions. I was impressed with Gase in his first season but two shut outs for an offensive minded head coach is worrying and the Dolphins’ front office doesn’t fill me with hope. They have a lot of talent at the skill positions on offence, including a couple of young players who progressed nicely through the year, but the Dolphins will need to improve the offensive line and defence plus hope Tannehill can stay healthy or look to another quarterback. Who know how the Dolphins will do next season?

New York Giants (3-13)

This year was pretty much a disaster for the Giants, whose third win only came in the final week of the season. It got so bad they cleared house during the season and have already hired Dave Gettleman to be their new GM. Gettlemen is a familiar face to the Giants and had some success building the Panthers into a Super Bowl team but was not known for assembling great offensive lines and has been somewhat abrasive with players. There is a lot to do with the Giants roster and the future at quarterback hangs over the franchise. They’ll need to get their head coach in place first, but it looks like there will be a lot of changes this offseason and even if Manning can operate next season behind a line that can protect him, he is not the future. There are some big decisions to be made by Gettlemen in the coming months.

New York Jets (5-11)

The Jets’ coaching team led by Todd Bowles have exceeded the expectations of the media with five wins despite a roster that lost a lot of veteran experience in the offseason and stayed competitive until career backup quarterback now starter Josh McCown’s season was ended by a wrist injury against the Broncos in week fourteen. This success has saved the job of Tod Bowles but possibly costs the Jets a shot at one of the top quarterbacks in the draft as those five wins mean they will be picking sixth in this year’s draft. They could try to trade up, but with the fourth most cap space in the league they could try to make a play for Kirk Cousins in free agency or try to get hold of Alex Smith if he becomes available. However they do it, with McCown already being thirty-eight they will need a quarterback for the future and they do not look to have one on the roster at the moment. Another offseason of growth is on the horizon but if they continue to stick with Bowles they could surprise next season with the right additions to their roster.

Oakland Raiders (6-10)

The Raiders’ season started off strongly enough before four straight losses put them in a hole they were never able to climb out of. This cost Jack Del Rio his job and with the offence taking a step back after the change in offensive co-ordinator and the defence finishing the season ranked twenty-ninth in the league by DVOA there is a lot of work to do. The Raiders have been strongly linked with Jon Gruden and if they land their man it will be fascinating to see if after nine years in the commentary booth whether Gruden has kept up with the changes in the NFL and can build a staff to turn things round. It is way too early to tell how things might go but it appears thing are about to get even more interesting for the Raiders as they wait to move out to Las Vegas in a few years’ time.

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

There can be few franchises that were ever as happy about a 6-10 record as the 49ers will be thanks to a five game winning streak at the end of the season brought about by their trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. The defence finished the season ranked twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA and there is still plenty to improve in the offence but as long as they can get Guroppolo signed up long term they can set about building the team around him. The 49ers have the most cap space in the league so there should plenty of money to sign Guroppolo and free agents as well as extra picks in the draft. It could all go wrong of course, but it feels like the 49ers should be at least competitive next season and that the trading of Guroppolo is going to be one of those huge what if conversations for years to come.

Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

The Seahawks run had to come to an end at some point, but it was sad to see an era defining defence fall apart through injury during the season. What is more, it is going to be hard for Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril to come back from their neck injuries and play again whilst Richard Sherman will be trying to come back from a torn Achilles whilst turning thirty. Given all this you get the feeling that the offseason will be a busy one as the Seahawks are likely to overhaul their roster. When you have a quarterback of the calibre of Russell Wilson then you should stay competitive but with a rejuvenated Rams team and a 49ers team that look to be ascending the NFC West could be very competitive next season. I wouldn’t bet against the Seahawks given their pedigree, but I imagine it will be a somewhat different team that hits the field next season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

The Bucs started of the season reasonably enough, but having got to 2-1 despite facing a Vikings team that turned out to be one of the best in the league they lost five straight and never got back into the playoff race. The injury to Jameis Winston that cost him three games didn’t help, but it wasn’t until late in the season that he began to find some form and certainly he did not make the progression that most thought he would given the upgrades to his receiving options in the offseason. It appears that Winston’s stronger finish was enough for the Bucs to keep faith with head coach Dirk Koetter despite it being widely expected that he could lose his job but it feels like things will need to turn round next season for Koetter to keep it. They could start this by fixing a defence that finished dead last in the league by DVOA and whilst I respect Mike Smith as a defensive coordinator, they will have to do something to change things regardless of any improvements by Winston. I don’t think anyone will be as excited going into next season as they were coming into this one, but away from the cameras of Hard Knocks and with the right additions in the offseason this team could still look to compete for the playoffs. The big question is whether Jameis Winston can develop or if he will continue to tease with his talent but not quite get there.

Washington (7-9)

I am really not sure what to write about Washington. It felt like they came into the season a little short of peak form, which might not be that bad as it is a long season and team like the Patriots and Seahawk regularly do this but they had lost three divisional games by the end of week eight and four out of their total of seven games. They were never able to recover and with all the changes to the front office in the offseason and the overhaul of their receiving group that never quite worked it is possibly not that surprising. Having missed out on the playoffs, Jay Gruden was not exactly fulsome in his praise of Kirk Cousins who still managed to throw for over four thousand yards and twenty-seven yards this year. It is hard to see Washington using a tag on Cousins for the third straight offseason and so they look to be a franchise in flux searching for their next quarterback. However, I don’t see a clear plan and I’m not convinced they will find a quarterback better than Cousins but time will tell. It is beginning to feel like a very long time since Washington were a franchise capable of winning Super Bowls.