Tag Archives: Green Bay Packers

Fallen at the Final Hurdle

29 Sunday Jan 2017

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It’s that strange time of year when the excitement builds towards the Super Bowl and finding out who will be crowned champions, yet we are running out of games. Even sticking to my routine of watching coaching tape of the Super Bowl, there is still only one game left. For many their thoughts are turning to the offseason and the hope of training camp or the joy/worry of draft season. However, I will say goodbye to the two teams who fell just short of the Super Bowl in a pair of noncompetitive conference championship games.

The Green Bay Packers came into the conference championship on a scorching run of form, but sadly fell well short of the Atlanta Falcons, particularly when things fell apart for them in the first half. The Falcons game started the game strongly on offence, able to move the ball and scored on eight of their first nine drafts. However, things could have been different for the Packers if the usually reliable Mason Crosby hadn’t missed a field goal and Aaron Ripkowski hadn’t fumbled the ball as he rumbled towards the Falcons’ twenty yard down. Instead of tying the game, they Packers fell seventeen points behind and they simply were not able to stop falcons or get enough points to get themselves back in the game.

It was a tough way for the Packers to finish their season, which is how it goes for all but one team in the NFL, but this was your archetypal one game too far for them. Too many injuries and too much being asked of Aaron Rodgers. They will go into an offseason of discontent. I’m sure the questions around their defensive coordinator Dom Capers and GM Ted Thompson will resurface, and Rodgers himself has talked about the team needing more urgency next year. There are reasonable questions about whether the Packers are getting the most out of their super star quarterback with the team they are surrounding him with. It would not take a great defence to help get him to the Super Bowl, and improvements to the offensive scheme and the run game would also help. However, if it were not for the Patriots, the idea that a team could compete every year would not be so strong. The problem for the Packers whilst they focus on being a draft and develop team is that they will rarely get a high draft pick with their level of success. There are plenty of players to be found in the draft, but most teams need a high first round pick to acquire that top level of talent. I certainly would not advocate for a strong push in free agency either, but given the success of free agents like Julius Peppers and Jared Cook it would seem that Thompson could afford to add more players via this route if he is capable of finding them.

In the end you would expect the Packers to competitive next year, but there is plenty of work to be done in the offseason.

The Pittsburgh Steelers did what most teams do when the travel to Foxborough and lost to the New England Patriots. They never really got on terms with the Patriots with their offence hampered by the first quarter loss of Le’Veon Bell to a groin injury, whilst the defence played a zone scheme that Tom Brady picked apart as he threw for three hundred and eighty-four yards. There have been a lot of question about the game plan in the following days with players claiming they weren’t ready for the Patriots to play up-tempo or that the Pats hadn’t run a flea flicker this year when they did against Baltimore in week fourteen.

There are a lot of positives about the way the Steelers run their operation and they clearly have a talent for spotting receivers, but they have had more than their share of questionable character guys cause them problems recently. This season Martavis Bryant missed the year due to falling foul of the league’s drug policy, Le’Veon Bell missed three games at the start of the season due to missing drug tests, meanwhile the team had to answer question all week about Antonio Brown live streaming Mike Tomlin’s post game locker room speech. They go into the offseason with Ben Roethlisberger questioning if he will play next season, although most suspect the thirty-four year old quarterback will come back The Steelers will need to find Roethlisberger some more receivers to complement Brown, as there were too many dropped passes although if Bryant can get back on the field and stay there that would help. They also can’t allow them to be so reliant on Le’Veon Bell, as talented as he is if you look at the games missed through injury or suspension you cannot afford for him to account for such a large part of your offence. On defence you have to think that whilst James Harrison is coming back for another year, the Steelers will need a long term replacement for him to play on the other side to Bud Dupree.

It doesn’t feel like there is a huge overhaul needed, and the Steelers are one of the most stable franchises in the league, but I do wonder if at some point some of the questions around the locker room, and or coaching might lead to some kind of adjustment. It certainly won’t be anything spectacular, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Conference Championship Previews

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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It is hardly surprising that the conference championship games look really good, but they have a lot to live up to after the game Dallas and Green Bay put on last week.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons don’t just have a good offence, they have one that has produced numbers up there with some of the best there have been. You might not see Matt Ryan making the kind of amazingly athletic throws that Aaron Rodgers has made look routine over recent weeks, but he is in firm control of an offence that allows him to distribute the ball to a wide range of options in the passing game, whilst Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have proved themselves to be a highly effective combination out of the back field. It is hardly a surprise to see the coordinator behind such a season be sought after as a head coach, but fans in Atlanta will be hoping that this hasn’t been too much of a distraction for Kyle Shanahan as he prepares for this game. The Falcons are going up against a Packers defence that has been injured for a lot of the season, and they will be hoping to do enough to allow their offence to keep up with the Falcons. The secondary will have to work really hard to keep up with the Falcons’ offence and this could be a game too far for them.

The Packers have ridden the red hot play of Aaron Rodgers over the back end of the season and into the playoffs. The injuries at running back have meant that Rodgers is carrying this team with his arm, but he has found the right balance of extending plays in the pocket and playing within the structure of the offence to keep the Packers winning. That said, he now has receivers injured and it is hard not to think that Jordy Nelson will be limited by his rib injuries even if he does make the field in this game. The Falcons defence has not been good this season, but they have had enough pass rush to take advantage of the leads they often play with to make life difficult for the opposition, even if the majority of their sacks are accounted for by Vic Beasley who led the league through the regular season.

This could very well be a spectacular shoot out, but I do wonder if the injuries that the Packers are accruing could just sink them despite Rodgers extraordinary play. I certainly wouldn’t count out the Falcons and I’m really looking forward to this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

This is the sixth year in a row that the Patriots have made the conference championship game in a display of remarkable consistency. However, they are coming into this game off the back of a rocky performance that saw Tom Brady rattled a little and double his interception tally for the year with a pair of interceptions to go with the two he threw in the regular season. That said, it is hard not to expect continued excellent play from Brady who may not have ever made the spectacular kinds of plays that Rodgers is capable of, but runs his offence with complete mastery of the system. A system that changes week to week depending on how they choose to attack the defence they are facing. The Steelers defence will pose a serious test as they have enough experience not to be overawed by the situation and have been playing incredibly well over the back end of the season and into the playoffs. Their outside linebackers Bud Dupree and James Harrison have been getting pressure and causing problems, whilst inside backers Timmons and Shazier have looked good in the middle, and you can see the Steelers mimicking the up the central pressure the Texans used last week to get pressure on Brady.

If the defence of the Steelers have come together, then the offence has been a little off this season. The passing game has not been what we have come to expect over recent seasons despite Antonio Brown still being one of the premier receivers in the game. The Steelers have responded to this by handing the ball to Le’Veon Bell more in a tactic that has paid off big time. The patient runner can eat up the clock whilst racking up the yards, and this tactic not only makes the most sense for moving the ball for the Steelers in this game, but it also could limit the time Brady has on the field, which is no bad thing. The New England defence has not been spectacular by numbers, except they lead the league in scoring defence, which is one those key stats that really does help you win football games. They don’t really have a lot of big name players as far as the league is concerned, with Devin McCourty the only Pro Bowl selection, but they are schemed very well each week and you can see them planning to stop the run, bracket Antonio Brown, and daring the other Steelers to beat them.

The Steelers very definitely have a template that can beat the Patriots and will not be intimidated by going into New England. This may not be the offensive spectacle that the earlier game will likely be, but I see this as a very competitive game that could go either way. As football fans, what else could want from the conference championship games?

Goodbye to the Disappointed Divisional Teams

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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We have said goodbye to four more teams, and are only three games that matter away from the end of the season. Of course our thoughts turn towards the conference championship games this weekend, but before we consider them fully let us take a moment to look at the state of the four departed and consider what was a truly spectacular game on Sunday.

The early game saw the Seattle Seahawks finally finish a difficult down year for them that still netted them a division title and a playoff win. They started the game off strongly, moving the ball on their first drive and scoring a touchdown to take an early lead that they held onto until around two thirds of the way through second quarter and were unable to reclaim. The Seahawk’s offence was let down by its structural flaw in the offensive line, and so they were unable to keep up with the Atlanta Falcons superb offence. It is not too often that you see a guard step on his quarterback’s foot and cost his team a safety. The Seahawks managed to run for one hundred yards, but with only twenty-one carries they were not as committed to it as the previous week, and they were unable to do enough through the air to make up for it although both Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson had respectable days in gaining eighty yards each. However, combine the problems on offence with a defence that was missing Earl Thomas at safety and there were too many problems to overcome.

The Seahawks should have Thomas back next year, but their focus should be improving the offensive line. The problem is that this was the case last season so while they appear to have the cap space to address this, you can’t honestly predict if they will or not address their offensive line this offseason. Still, you would expect the Seahawks to be competitive again next season and I will be curious to see how Pete Caroll approaches next season with chatter already surfacing that he will be addressing some aspect of his player’s behaviour that adversely affected the team this years. I can’t see him changing completely, but as ever I look forward to seeing what happens in Seattle.

The second game on Sunday was unsurprising in its result, and the Patriots still covered the huge line in beating the Houston Texans, but the actual game did not exactly flow how many predicted. The Texans offence struggled, and benefitted from some rare mistakes from the Patriots to take advantage of good field position. However, the problems with Brock Osweiler’s play at quarterback still continued to hamper this team’s efforts and this surely will be a big focus in the offseason. There is some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but the return of JJ Watt to play alongside Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney could produce a terrifying front seven and a defence that could be as scary as any in the league. Even without Watt they were able to scheme pressure up the middle and rattle Tom Brady, even if Brady was able to find a way to grind out the game as he usually does.

The Texans could be a really good team, but they have to address the quarterback problem. This is something of a surprise given that Bill O’Brien is an offensive minded head coach who has a reputation as a quarterback whisperer, but he can only coach the players he is given. He seemed to learn the lesson of last season and so stuck with Osweiler until he just couldn’t any more, but it is worrying that receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a better season with the rotating cast of quarterbacks that were throwing him the ball last season than with Osweiler and Savage this. If they can get the right balance on offence then this team could take a real step forward, but with their recent history who knows if they will be able to manage it.

The first game on Sunday was one of the best of the season and certainly the highlight of the playoffs to date. What started as a dominating performance by the Green Bay Packers, which saw them gain a 21-3 lead by half way through the second quarter ended in a tight contest that saw three fifty plus yard field goals in the last two minutes.

The Cowboys success this year was based up their two stellar rookies performing behind their excellent offensive line. Thrust from developmental backup to opening day starting quarterback by Tony Romo’s preseason fractured vertebrae, Dak Prescott has been remarkably calm and safe with the ball from the get go and as the season progressed so did his range of passing. Prescott’s ability to run the ball also complements rookie running back sensation Ezekiel Elliott and the pair of them led the Cobwoys to the playoffs. They were slow starters, which could very well be attributed to nerves, but Elliott ran for one hundred and twenty-five yards whilst Prescott threw for over three hundred. There is no shame in falling short against the Packers, particularly as it took some remarkable play for Aaron Rodgers and ridiculously difficult catch by Jared Cook to setup the winning field goal.

The Cowboys defence has struggled to keep up with the performance of the offence, and whilst they were solid enough in overall DVOA ranking at seventeen, they have struggled to rush the passer and they will need to address this side of the ball in the offseason to improve. It will be disappointing to go 13-3 and not get a playoff win, but this team is a very good position to continue its success next year, and if they continue to draft as strongly as they have in recent years then I see no reason bar injury that they won’t do so. Given how well the pick of Elliott has worked out, I will be giving them a bigger benefit of the doubt when draft time rolls round!

The final game of the weekend saw a second team depart the playoffs without a win after a bye week when the Kansas City Chiefs were beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers despite scoring two touchdowns to the Steelers’ zero.

The Chiefs have been a very good regular season team over the last two years, but have struggled to make this really count with a deep playoff run. This season’s team was a very balanced matchup of offence and defence with very good special teams. However, there were flaws in this team that came back to bite them in this game. The Chiefs defence has been solid this year, but they have been very reliant on turnovers and only managed one in this game. However, despite having a poor rushing defence and giving up one hundred and seventy yards on the ground to Le’Veon Bell, the Chiefs defence limited the Steelers to six field goals and so it was not the defence that cost the Chiefs this game.

The Chiefs have relied on a speed and big plays to supplement their offence, and the Steelers made a point of kicking away from Tyreek Hill to negate his return ability on special teams and their defence was able to limit the Chiefs’ offence for large stretches of the game. Whilst the Steelers racked up nearly four hundred yards of the offence, the Chiefs were only able to amass a little under two hundred and thirty and this was their real problem. Their offence, based as it is on trickery and speed was unable to move the ball consistently enough to win against the Steelers.

Moving into next season, the Chiefs will likely to be just as consistent again, but it seems they will need to find some extra level if they are to take the next step. Shoring up a porous run defence will go a long way to helping that side of the ball, whilst making the offence more consistent will help the other side. A more consistent run game could be found simply from their running backs being healthier, but continuing the improvements to the offensive line would help as well. However, there are already questions being asked about whether Alex Smith is capable of the level of play required to win big in the playoffs. Given some of the names that have graced the Super Bowl that might be a little over the top, but the era defining defences that are needed to carry such quarterbacks far into the playoffs are not easy to come by, and it is not hard to see the Chiefs drafting a quarterback to develop behind a thirty-two year old Smith.

Sunday Divisional Games

15 Sunday Jan 2017

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Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboy lost Tony Romo in pre-season to a fractured vertebrae, and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott stepped into the void and looked comfortable from the get go. Operating behind what is widely regarded as the best offensive line in the league he and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott helped the Cowboys get the number one seed behind their stellar play. As the season went on Prescott was able to increase his grasp of the offence and with a combination of the way Elliott ran the ball and Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Cole Beasley as receiving options, the Cowboys are formidable opponents for the Packers in this game. However, whilst the offence stands every chance of moving the ball on the Packers, the defence has been more of an issue. They do not have the pass rush of the similarly constructed Falcons, but do rank better by overall defensive DVOA. However, they face a really tough matchup in the Packers offence

The Packers come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NFL having turned a 4-6 record into a 10-6 division win and running out easy winners against the Giants last week. The defence has been battling injuries in the secondary for most of the season, and although they were ranked number one against the run at one point, are another unit in the playoffs that ranks a fair bit worse than their offence. The offence lost Jordy Nelson early last week who will not make this game due to his fractured ribs, but Aaron Rodgers has found his rhythm with his receiving group during this win streak and so will remain dangerous in the passing game. Rodgers has an uncanny ability to move and keep a play alive and is back to throwing receivers open and looking is looking like the best quarterback in the league.

This is not a game I want to predict, the Cowboys can likely dominate the time of possession with the run game and protect their defence, which has been the game plan for most of the season, but Rodgers does not need a lot of opportunities to produce points. This could very well be game of the week, and I for one am heartily looking forward to it.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been quietly racking up the regular season wins for a season and a half now, and welcome the Steelers to the loudest outdoor stadium in the league.

A lot of jokes have been made about Andy Reid’s clock management over the years, but he is an incredibly good coach whose football teams have won a lot of games. His quarterback has the reputation of a game manager, but Alex Smith gets the job done and is capable of spreading the ball around as required as well as moving the ball with his feet. The Chiefs’ leading receiver this year was Travis Kelce, who will be going up against a defence ranked thirteenth in the league against tight ends by DVOA. However, the emergence of Tyreek Hill as a big player receiver as well as special teams returner has added another dimension to the Chiefs, but he is not the only speed option they have on offence. The Chiefs’ defence has been good rather than outstanding, and has missed Justin Houston to injury for much of the year, although Houston has flashed when he did get on the field and the Chiefs will hope that he plays on Sunday.

The Steelers got an easy win against the Dolphins last week as Antonio Brown stole the game in the first quarter. They will expect that Le’Veon Bell will be able to rack up the runs against a rush defence that ranked twenty-sixth in the league against the run by DVOA, and that could be enough to win them the game with the way Bell has been playing this season. He has needed to be this good as Ben Roethlisberger has struggled at times, and the quarterback left the stadium in a walking boot last week but will be playing this week. The Steelers’ defence played very well against the Dolphins, with the seemingly ageless James Harrison making his presence felt along with the other Steelers linebackers. This is not the same style of defence as in recent years, and they started the year struggling a little, but finished the year just outside the top ten by DVOA and have been very solid in their new cover 2 look.

This is another game that is hard to predict as both teams have been competitive all year, but if feels like the Chiefs have been more consistent all year and are home so I would give them the edge, but this feels like a second toss up game.

Wildcard Sunday

08 Sunday Jan 2017

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With yesterday’s games turning out to be easy home wins, our attention shifts to tonight’s matchups in the hopes of more competitive fixtures

Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

In something of a theme for wildcard week, the Miami Dolphins face the Steelers with a backup quarterback. However, Matt Moore has looked pretty good and has at least won two of the three games that he has played. The Dolphins offence may not be consistently effective, but they have a number of play makers, and Jay Ajayi will be hoping to have the kind of success he had against the Steelers in week six when he ran for two hundred yards and the Dolphins won the game. That win sparked a six game win streak to take the Dolphins from 1-4 to 7-4 but this game is a tough ask. Their defence will face a difficult teat against the Steelers, particularly with their twenty-second ranked rush defence by DVOA goes against Le’Veon Bell, but if Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake can get going then maybe the Dolphins can contain them.

The strength of this Steelers team is the combination of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. However, Roethlisberger has not quite looked himself since his return from a knee injury and it is very possible that he is banged up. As a result Antonio Brown has not been quite as dominant as last season, but he is still a phenomenal player, and you only have to look at the play he made against the Ravens in week sixteen as he stretched for the winning touchdown to see the impact he can still have. The good news for the Steelers is that they finally come into the playoffs with Le’Veon Bell healthy and having run for over twelve hundred yards in just twelve games. The defence may present some concerns given their up and down performance but they will want to make up for the two hundred yards they gave up early in the year.

If the Dolphins defence can do enough to limit the Steelers, then with their big play options on offence the Dolphins can do enough to win this game, but it is hard to see them doing so. This is Adam Gase’s first year with the Dolphins and their first appearance in the playoffs since the 2008 season, whilst the Steelers are filled with playoff experience and an offence that if it gets going could put this game away quickly. I expect the Steelers to win this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins got beaten heavily or made a game of it.

New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)

This is the game of the wildcard weekend. The Packers won their division with a six game win streak after Aaron Rodgers stated they would win out and the team backed that up by doing just that. The Packers have had problems with injuries, patching up their secondary and making do at running back. The offence has now found a formula they can make work and have scored thirty or more in the last four games. However, although defence led the league in rush defence early on, injuries have seen this unit slip to be distinctly average. At home they will hope that the offence can take the pressure off, but a young secondary could be the Achilles heel of the Packers in this game.

The Giants come into this game with a defence ranked number two in defence by DVOA having been thirtieth the year before. This is the largest single year improvement of defence ever recorded by DVOA and is off the back of a bunch of free agent signings and a major step forward by second year safety Landon Collin. In fact Collins leads the team in tackles with one hundred, plus four sacks, and five interceptions, which is an incredible season by anyone’s standard. This defence turnaround is very timely as the offence has really struggled for a lot of this year. The Giants have been unable to run the ball effectively and Eli Manning has thrown sixteen interceptions as he’s struggled to find his receivers consistently. Both Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz have had their moments, but too often the Giants offence has been reliant on big plays to Odell Beckham. That said, Paul Perkins did manage to run for one hundred yards against Washington next week, and if the Giants can be a bit more balanced on offence or find Beckham a couple of times then they stand a real chance in this game.

I am really not sure who is going to win this one, but I am expecting a good game to close out the Wildcard weekend.

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 33

24 Thursday Nov 2016

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It’s Thanksgiving this week, and we’re giving thanks for all of the great Football games we’ve been able to watch over the last couple of weeks… Dan’s definitely thankful for the Dolphins current run of form! This week, we’re talking about Colin Kaepernick and his charity donations and analyse exactly what on earth is going wrong for the Green Bay Packers! Also, all the best action from Week 11, and our picks for Week 12, all here this week on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 33

AAF: How Do You Solve a Problem Like Ezekiel?

23 Sunday Oct 2016

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I wanted to take a look at the Cowboys running game against the Packers defence, who were giving up less than two yards a carry against the run coming into this game, as this looked to be the match-up of the week and so it proved.

In a game where your defence gave up one hundred and ninety-one yard games, it might seem strange to say that for large parts of the game the run defence held up well, but to my eyes for good chunks of the game the Packers did well against the run. The Packers’ front seven were not pushed off their run fits and there were no huge holes for Ezekiel Elliott to run through. However, they were clearly unable to contain Elliott who finished the game with one hundred and fifty-seven yards on the ground.

The big chunk plays that Elliott did manage to pick up were when he ran off the end of the line to attack the periphery of the defence where he was able to run the ball consistently. That’s not to say however that he did not have success up the middle, as Elliott only requires a small crease to get a good pick up as he hits the hole so hard. Even when there were no holes up the middle, the Cowboys offensive line is good enough for them to get positive yardage by pushing their men back. The other thing that struck me about Elliott though is that he is a running back who rides contact effectively as well as being able to make defenders miss, which means that it is hard for defenders to get a hit on him and even when they do he doesn’t go down easily. This when coupled with his speed and acceleration makes him a fearsome runner which allowed him to generate these kinds of numbers against a defence that wasn’t playing badly.

His longest run was a twenty-nine yard play in the fourth quarter where coming out of a double tight-end formation with one either side of the formation and there was no player over left tackle Tyron Smith. With Packers’ linebacker Blake Martinez bursting through between guard and centre but unable to disrupt the hand off, Smith was able to seal off safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Elliott had enough space to run up the middle for the huge gain. This was really the only time that the defence was miscalled, and whilst the Cowboys line did occasionally open up some nice holes, most of the time it was Elliott’s ability to run the ball as much as anything that did the damage.

So how do you solve a problem like Ezekiel? Well since he has developed some patience after the first couple of games, he has consistently run for over one hundred and thirty yards a game so the answer appears to be at the moment that you don’t. In this game you do wonder why he was in during the last series given the Cowboys were two touchdowns ahead, but numbers aside, Elliott has got off to an excellent start behind a no doubt very good offensive line. The big problem for the Cowboys last year was their inability to win without Tony Romo, but with both Romo and Dez Bryant out again this year, the new foundation of Elliott combined with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott has the Cowboys at 5-1 and whilst we shouldn’t get carried away yet, the signs are hopeful in Dallas. I would not be too worried about the defence for the Packers as they still looked good against the run for large parts of this game, and I doubt they will be the last to get gouged by Ezekiel Elliot.

Week 7: Bears at Packers

23 Sunday Oct 2016

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Green Bay Packers 26
Chicago Bears 10

This was another strange Thursday night game which didn’t quite take off, and was further hampered by the injury to Brian Hoyer in the second quarter, which allowed the Packers to grind out the win despite their problems at running back.

The Packers offence managed to rack up over one hundred yards of running in this game despite their two leading rushers being receivers Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb, but nothing was quite fluent for most of the game. Yet again there were sections of the game where no receivers were getting open, and the Bears were able to pressure Aaron Rodgers as he was unable to find someone to pass to. That said, thanks to a game flow where the Bears offence offered very little, the defence wore down and the Packers finished with very credible numbers. For all of his drops last season, Davante Adams looked like a different player as he caught thirteen of sixteen for one hundred and thirty-two yards and two touchdowns. Equally Randall Cobb finished with ninety-five yards receiving to go with his twenty-one yards of rushing, but Ty Montgomery should get special mention for gaining sixty yards on nine carries as well as sixty-six yards receiving as he lined up all over the formation. In the end Aaron Rodgers’ numbers looked much like their usual self as he throw for over three hundred yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. However, the Packers had to work hard for these and it could be an interesting few weeks for Green Bay.

For the first half of the game and into the third quarter the Bears defence kept Green Bay out of the end zone, and were causing them all kinds of problems with their coverage holding up and they were able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Their first round draft pick Leonard Floyd caught the eye with two sacks and three quarterback hits, as well as scoring the Bears’ only touchdown of the game when he sacked Rodgers causing a fumble and was able to recover the ball in the end zone. However, with their offence offering very little after Brian Hoyer went out injured the Bears defence wore down and having given up the odd pass interference call in the first half, receivers started to get open and then penalties started to crop up. There was one pretty dubious pass interference call, but De’Vante Buasby’s name started to crop up in bad ways down the stretch as things got desperate for the Bears.

The Bears offence finished with anaemic numbers, only going for sixty-nine yards rushing as they struggled against the Packers defence that has looked good against the run for most of the season. They really were not able to sustain anything, and even more so once Brian Hoyer went down with a broken arm in the second quarter. But it should be noted that Hoyer was only four of eleven for forty-nine yards when he went down, whilst Matt Barkley went for six of fifteen but also managed to throw two interceptions. The second was particularly bad as he tried to throw the ball away as he was being sacked and basically just threw it up in the air for the Packers to intercept. With Hoyer out things could be rough for the offence for a while, unless Jay Cutler comes back from his thumb injury playing much better than he had been before he went down. Certainly Barkley didn’t seem to offer much, but it’s hard to read too much into either running back’s game from this performance alone.

The Packers defence did what they had to in this one, stuffing the run and covering receivers enough to prevent the Bears from moving the ball, but when facing a unit that seemed to be struggling so much it is hard to tell too much from it. They were on the field for nineteen minutes less than the Bears and only gave up a field goal in the second quarter, but it was a team effort rather than any particular player standing out, at least that’s how it looked  from the standard TV coverage.

Overall, the Bears offence gave one of the worst performances I’ve seen this season, and caused their defence to wear down after starting off strongly. The Packers did what they needed to do, but I am curious to see how they will play going forward, but it feels like they will be somewhere around ten wins again.

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

22 Thursday Sep 2016

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I won’t go into the reasons why me usual routine has been turned around this week, but it does remind of the various quotes regarding what happens to plans when they run into reality.

The NFL is a very real reminder of this, with various teams already facing very different situations than they expected. Of course, for the Vikings the plan didn’t even survive the pre-season, with Teddy Bridgewater going down with his horrible knee injury in practice. This not only affected the Vikings, but Carson Wentz is now starting and surprising everyone with the quality of his play for the Eagles after Philidelphia traded the expected starter Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Both teams are now 2-0, with Bradford surprising everyone with his performance against Green Bay on Sunday as the Vikings eked out a win despite losing Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus that could keep him out until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Browns who traded down with the Eagles, allowing the team from Philadelphia to select Wentz are facing questions about what they didn’t like about the quarterback. If the Browns are the ones that are getting asked the questions now having lost two starting quarterbacks in the first two weeks, there could be some awkward questions for the Rams who picked Jared Goff instead of Wentz. With Goff failing to even dress in week one, and the offence still not having scored a touchdown this season, you can see people beginning to wonder about the decision even if the questioning does seem to have been delayed by the win the Rams ground out against the Seahawks on Sunday.

These days everybody wants to declare the winners and losers as soon as possible, despite the fact things are often far more complex than they seen. Planning is important, but rarely do even the most basic plans survive when you put them into action.

The thing we need in life to counter this is adaptability and resilience. The mental toughness to take what is thrown at you is often the difference between trying to do something, and the perseverance to make it a success.

The actual truth is that we don’t know how either Goff or Wentz’s actual careers will go, two games of their rookie season is simply not a big enough sample size, and the thing I like about the way the Rams holding out Goff is that if he’s not ready he shouldn’t just be thrown in. Because we picked him first is a really bad reason to start a quarterback. If you have a player you hope will play of a decade, it doesn’t make sense to play them early to appease the matter of winning now, or at least it doesn’t if there is a real risk that you could hurt the development of the player.

Sometimes circumstances don’t allow for this. Tonight the New England Patriots will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett thanks to a combination of Tom Brady’s four game suspension and Jimmy Garopollo spraining his throwing shoulder during last week’s win against the Miami Dolphins. I am looking forward to seeing how Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick scheme an offence in only three days practice for a third round draft pick who was their third string quarterback going into the season.

For some this would be too much, and excuse for a team to lose a game, but somehow I think that at least part of the coaches will be relishing the challenge.

You trust that he’ll get good coaching but it’s a hell of a task and there simply could be not enough time, which leads me to tonight’s pick:

Texans @ Patriots (-0.5)

It turns out that apart from lots of points, the other thing that will get me to pick against the Patriots is being down to their third string quarterback with only three days to prepare. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t win tonight, but it is a big ask and not one I’m prepared to pick as the most likely to happen. Watch Bill Belichick prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:           Texans
Dan’s Pick:           Texans

Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

16 Saturday Jan 2016

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It has been a rough few days. Between Lemmy’s funeral, the Bengals’ implosion, and then Bowie’s death, I have been wandering around in something of a haze. That’s two music icons and personal heroes gone, along with the continuing twenty-five year wait for a playoff win. That’s not even a championship, but the hope that the team, fans, and the city of Cincinnati would be spared a fifth consecutive playoff loss, but I’ll come back to the Wildcard games in a bit.

In the days following Bowie’s death there have been some writing that they don’t understand the outpouring of grief over a musician, that this is someone that you have never met so why are you sad? The answer to that was put rather beautifully by Lauren Laverne on her Monday radio show, because of course it is personal, music has that strange and magical hook direct into your soul. It has the power to soothe, to inspire, it is the soundtrack to your life, and can take you back to a key moments from your past in an instant. Part of our identity is what we chose to love, what is important to us. This is the same process that makes someone care about the outcome of twenty-two men chasing a ball around a field, what films we like to watch, or what books we read. It is all a part of how we identify ourselves, how we express to the world who and what we are.

I have written before on the positive effects that sport can have, particularly with participation, but also for simply taking someone out of themselves. What I love about Bowie was his endless exploration of self-expression. This pursuit wasn’t a search for a new on trend sound that would help further his career, but the continuing development of a curious artist. I don’t have the single personal moment of a song telling me that I could do or be something that I have heard so many talk about in the last few days. I am too young for him to have revolutionised what was possible, for me it had already happened, but oh boy what a catalogue of songs. To me he was intrinsically intertwined with what a musician should be, and so as a drummer, therefore what I should aspire to be. I can’t hear Rebel Rebel without thinking about my dad, it was one of those conversations father and sons have across generations when they both love music. We all have heroes and influences. Some people have a select few. I could wax lyrical on scientists, politicians, artists of all hues, and yes sports people.

Even as I write the first draft of this blog, we have learned that Alan Rickman has also passed away, again aged 69 and killed by cancer. Death is not something we like to think about, it is an all too painful reminder of our own mortality. It is even more shocking when it comes as a surprise, when we were ignorant of the illness, when an album was only released three days earlier.

So how do I pull this back to sport of all things? Well by dint of the aforementioned discussion on policing grief. Like all things, there are degrees of grief. Life in all its infinite complex glory gives us endless things to care about, and usually concern over one thing does not deny concern about the other. We have to have some kind of balance, otherwise we’d collapse under the cares of the world. I am saddened by the death of a hero. But what about all the wars? My team lost a playoff game. Are you not concerned by the systematic dismantling of the welfare state? My team is moving city. Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes.

With apologies to Walt Whitman, we’ll get back to football, and the various sets of fans that have had a pretty bad week as well.

The Houston Texans had done well to even make the playoffs, but last weekend really was one game too far. The game started with a one hundred and six yard kick off return touchdown by the Chiefs, and things never improved as the Texans slipped to a 30-0 loss. The defence actually gave a reasonable account of themselves, especially with JJ Watt having further injuries, but the offence was horrible. Racking up five turnovers, with Brian Hoyer throwing four interceptions and two fumbles, losing one to the Chiefs, things never got going in the passing game. In fairness, having your starting left tackle is always going to hurt, but the lack of options behind DeAndre Hopkins really hurt the Texans, and you have to think they will be looking to address this in the offseason.

I have said playoff win or bust for the Bengals all season, and it was another painful loss. However, if last year’s loss was explainable by the number of injuries to the skill positions on offence, then this one was understandable given the Bengals were without their starting quarterback and still gave a reasonable account of themselves in the fourth quarter. Despite not scoring in the first three quarters, AJ McCarron put the Bengals in a position to win the game, and they had the ball with 1:50 left on the clock. With a year left on his contract, building one of the league’s most talented rosters, and with his coaching tree still expanding, it appears that Marvin Lewis is safe for another year in Cincinnati, but he will have to address the issue of discipline/poise in the offseason. I have no issue with either of the late penalties that cost the Bengals this game, although Joey Porter had no business being on the field and another coach had already pulled Reggie Nelson’s dreadlocks on the sideline, but you have to be smarter than both Burfict and Jones were at the end of this game. I am sure the league will be looking at ways to control this fixture going forward as they will desperate to avoid the rancour escalating further given the Steelers and Bengals face each other twice a season. Already Hue Jackson has left to be head coach of the Cleveland Browns, so it will be another season of change at coordinator for the Bengals, but so much of the team’s recent success has been built through the offseason and draft that hopefully this part of the process will take care of itself once more.

The most painful loss of the Wildcard round has to be the Minnesota Viking’s agonising last second loss on a missed chip shot twenty-seven yard field goal. You have to think that Blair Walsh will be thinking about that kick for years to come, but this should not take the gloss of the continuing progress the Vikings have made, In ex-Bengal coordinator Mike Zimmer’s second year in charge the Vikings were able to wrestle the NFC North division away from the Green Bay Packers, and have a young foundation to build on. They need to sure up the offensive line and get Teddy Bridgewater some options on offence, but the Vikings have a very tough defence and are heading in the right direction. You can argue that they have the most to look forward to out of the four teams that were eliminated last weekend.

That said, Washington are also making good progress in another ex-Bengals coordinator’s second year in charge. Fittingly, old offensive coordinator Jay Gruden found a formula during the course of the season that turned quarterback Kirk Cousins into one of the most effective passers in the league in the final weeks. With two solid receivers and a very promising progression from tight end Jordan Reid there is hope for them next season. They will need to strengthen their defence, particularly in the secondary, if they want to compete in their division again next season, but they were able to compete with the Packers for three quarters. There looks to be a foundation to build from as long as they can sign Cousins to a sensible contract.

I will come back to the franchises that are moving in the offseason once all the deals have been firmed up, but I can’t help feeling sorry for the fans in St. Louis who are losing their team. It at least makes sense for the Rams to return to Los Angeles, and the offer has been made for the Chargers to join them. We will have to see if they agree, but it looks likely that they will be on the move in some way or the other. At least the Raiders look set to stay in Oakland, but I’m sure their fans won’t feel safe until the franchise finds a long term stadium solution.

So now onto this week’s games, which unsurprising all look to be great.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

All the talk about the Patriots is that they are getting all their key players back, and that just having Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski back will enable to Tom Brady to get the ball out quicker, helping the Patriots in pass protection. This is likely to be the deciding factor in this game, the Chiefs defence has been excellent for most of the season since they got corner Shaun Smith back from injury, but their pass rush will need to be effective if the Chiefs are to win this game.

The Patriots defence has been good for large chunks of the season, but the Chiefs have been getting it done without spectacular passing numbers from Alex Smith, who doesn’t turn the ball over. They actually seem to have improved since running back Jamaal Charles has gone down, but it will be interesting to see if they can scheme their way into competing in this game.

I wouldn’t like to call this game as there are too many injury unknowns, but I am expecting a good contest.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

I am looking forward to this game as the Cardinals are my favourite team left in the competition. Their aggressive long passing game has been effective against virtually everyone, whilst they got a huge amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers the last time they played.

The Packers may have pulled away from Washington at the end of the game, but the offence still hasn’t proved to me that it can play against man coverage, which has been their downfall for much of the season. If they can turn the Cardinal’s aggressive pass rush against them, then they might be able to win this game as their defence has been playing well recently, but I am expecting them to come up short in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are a good team, but they are lucky to be playing in this game. They should have lost against the Vikings if Blair Walsh hadn’t missed the last second field goal. Their offence got very little going last week except when for when Russell Wilson made plays out of structure, but the Seahawks defence is looking good once more and should keep them in contention.

However, the one area the Seahawks defence have struggled with is against tight ends, and Cam Newton’s favourite target this season has been tight end Greg Olson. The Panthers beat the Seahawks in week six, and with their own great defence you would expect them to repeat the feat at home. The Seahawks are always a dangerous proposition in the post season, but you don’t go 15-1 without being very good.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Our final game of the weekend sees Peyton Manning start the game after an injury plagued season where he has ranked amongst the worst quarterbacks in the league. We really can’t be sure how effective the offence will be against a Steelers defence that plays better than its patchy secondary, but the Broncos have been like this all season. What has got them into the playoffs is a fearsome defence, and although they had difficulties against the Steelers earlier in the season, they have been mixing more zone into their coverages, which might help them as the Bengals’ two high safety look did limit the Steelers’ passing attack.

The Steelers will be concerned about attempting their normal game on offence, as Antonio Brown has been ruled out of this week’s game with the concussion he sustained at the end of the game against the Bengals. Somehow Ben Roethlisberger is only questionable despite a sprained AC join and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. If you combine this with the injuries to their running backs and the Steelers might just be too injured to win this one. They will play the Broncos tough, but I would have more faith in the Bronco’s Brock Osweiler than Landry Jones if it does come down to a battle of the backups. I’m expecting the Steelers’ defence to blitz the Broncos heavily to keep themselves in the game, but I think this could be a week too many for the Steelers.

It should be a great set of games this weekend, and let’s hope the world eases up on us a bit going into next week.