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2020 Week Eleven Picks

22 Sunday Nov 2020

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After a pretty disastrous week ten for picks it is kind of appropriate that I got week eleven off to a losing start, but I suppose I had better start from the beginning.

The last week was pretty rubbish for me given that I was ill for a lot of it, but let’s hope that’s the last week of the season that my routine is affected by illness. I fell another four games back from Dan and so whilst I managed to keep his lead down to single digits, it really does feel like he is destined to take over from his dad as picks champion, which somehow feels appropriate. He has even scored more points than my value tracking numbers, although because there isn’t always a line advantage his winning percentage is over ten points lower, but I am no where near 50-50 this season so I am clearly going to have to re-work things in the off-season.

However, having watched the Seahawks stomp over the pair of us backing the Cardinals on Thursday night, it’s time to swing through the survivor competition and get into the rest of the week eleven slate of games.

Gee:Week 10:  4 – 10Overall:  69 – 79
Dan:Week 10:  8 – 6Overall:  78 – 70

Survivor Competition

Through ten weeks Dan and I are a pretty respectable eight and seven points respectively. Dan’s confidence paid off last week as he took the Vikings over the Bears whilst my play against the Texans with the Browns worked out for me. Although the Jets are back in play this week, neither Dan or I are trusting enough of the Chargers to risk them as our pick and so while Dan is demonstrating confidence in the Patriots recent run of wins by backing them over the Texans, I am working my way up the list of losing teams and settling on the Vikings going against the Cowboys. I am a little concerned that Jerry’s team are coming off a bye and are getting Andy Dalton back from his concussion/Covid-19 nightmare, but there are fifteen places between them in the overall DVOA rankings and I like how the Vikings have been playing in recent weeks.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 8

Week 11 Selection:

Gee:    Vikings
Dan:    Patriots

Early Games:

I can find reasons to pretty much watch any NFL game, but it does feel like this week the exciting contests are a little thinner on the ground and somewhat weighted to the later part of the slate and Monday.

The first of the early games to really catch the eye is the Tennessee Titans travelling to face the Baltimore Ravens, but that is as much because of what it will tell us about the teams than conviction in the inherent quality of the contest. The Titans are a perfectly respectable 6-3, but the concern will be that they have slipped to that record after a 5-0 start and have lost three of their last four games. The defence is not good and the kicking game has been a real Achilles’ heel and whilst the big names have been performing on offence, losses to the Colts and the Steelers will be concerning as they came at home whilst having already lost to the Bengals on the road, the Ravens will prove a stern test. The Ravens are a matching 6-3, but whilst they have another top ten defense and are second in the league in special teams by DVOA, the offence is ranked in the twenties and is definitely struggling after they set the league alight last season. The interesting commentary I have heard over this is that for all the questions about Lamar Jackson throwing the ball this season, he is near the top of the league when throwing on first down, the problem with their run heavy attack is that the Ravens just don’t do this a lot. If the Ravens can figure out their pass-run balance on first down, and they are known as one of the more analytically minded teams, then they could truly terrify, but as I have said all season, they won’t really scare opponents until they can demonstrate the ability to come back from a big deficit. I think they are unlikely to face that problem in this game though, and think they are likely to win a physical game although that line does look generous to me.

The other game I am interested in is the New Orleans Saints hosting the resurgent Atlanta Falcons. The Saints have looked a lot better in the last couple of weeks, but they are obviously going to be a different team whilst Drew Brees recovers from his collapsed lung and broken ribs. The Saints demonstrated they could win consistently without Brees for multiple weeks last year, but Teddy Bridgewater is now starting for the Panthers and it is interesting that at the time of writing the starter is rumoured to by Taysom Hill and not Jameis Winston. Regardless the Saints will be without Brees for at least three weeks as he’s been placed on IR and they start this run against a rested Falcons team who have won three of their last four games. If the Falcons continue to win at this rate it could make how to proceed in the off-season a tricky question, but this is their first real test since their mini turnaround given that it consisted of beating a Vikings team without Dalvin Cook, then facing the Lions, Panthers and Broncos. I think I like the Saints to win out given their experience and defense, but I am not exactly sure about it and the line seems high to me.

From the rest:

  • The Bengals are a two-win football team for a reason, and after a really great win against the Titans they were battered by the Steelers last week. This is a very winnable game, but the experience of Alex Smith worries me, even if it is amazing to see him come back from the injuries he had to start in the league once more. If the Bengals don’t win this one though, you will likely find my querying the directions of the franchise under Zac Taylor in next week’s podcast.
  • The Eagles still stand atop the NFC East despite their loss against the Giants last week, but they were meant to come back stronger from the bye not lose another game and this is a tough match up as they travel to Cleveland to face a Browns team with twice as many wins. The Eagles are going to have to really improve to compete in this one and if they don’t soon then a very winnable division is going to slip through their fingers. It is a sign of how far the Browns have progressed this season that there’s not a lot to say this week and we are not focused on Odell Beckham’s injury.
  • The story breaking about last season’s Lions having a party at the end of the season because they would be free of Matt Patricia is not a ringing endorsement of him as a head coach, and having just finished a biography about Bill Belichick for all his testy relationship with the media, his players like and respect him and he wins, something Patricia with a 13-27 record has failed to consistently do. Having beat Washington by three points last week the struggling Panthers provide another opportunity to pad the win column, but it still feels like the Lions are a franchise marking time until off-season changes.
  • With two consecutive wins the Patriots have dragged themselves back into contention and are only a win away from get back to even wins and losses, which they really should get this week against a Texans team who can’t really compete now that Deshaun Watson no longer has DeAndre Hopkins to throw to. The slow rebuild the Texans are going to need over the coming seasons will stand testament to how GM Bill O’Brien let down head coach Bill O’Brien.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers unbeaten streak was never in doubt against the Bengals last week, and I doubt they will struggle to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville, but it will be worth keeping an eye on this game just in case the Steelers have one eye on their week twelve Thanksgiving meeting with the Ravens.

Falcons @ Saints (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bengals @ Washington (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Lions @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Titans @ Ravens (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Patriots @ Texans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Steelers @ Jaguars (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Late Games:

I think there is a singular stand out game in the late slot, which is the Green Bay Packers taking their 7-2 record to Indianapolis and a Colts team who have won consistently but haven’t quite convinced yet. This should be a really interesting contest when the Packers have the ball as it will see Aaron Rodgers running Matt LaFleur’s offence against a Colts defense who are currently ranked top five by DVOA, but it will likely be determined by how well a fading Philip Rivers can operate a Colts offence that hasn’t quite found its feet this season against a Packers defense that has so far done enough to win games thanks to their offence being second only to the Chiefs by DVOA. I am really looking forward to this one.

From the rest:

  • It is a testament of how things are coming together for the Dolphins that this looks like a straightforward game for them given that the Broncos are struggling to do anything consistently and Drew Lock has failed to prove himself the answer at quarterback despite the promise he had shown coming into the season.
  • The team without a win meets the team who seem to specialise in close losses, and something has to give. It is not exactly a surprise that the LA Chargers are favourites, but the Jets could be more competitive than this line suggests coming off a bye
  • The Cowboys will be hoping that the return of Andy Dalton gives them a boost as they also come off the bye, but the Vikings have looked a different team since getting Dalvin Cook back and will have an eye on a run to the play-offs in the final seven games of the season. However, with games on the road against the Buccaneers and Saints to come, they can’t afford any slip ups, including dropping a game against the struggling Cowboys.

Dolphins @ Broncos (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Jets @ Chargers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Cowboys @ Vikings (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Packers @ Colts (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Raiders (+6.5)

This tasty looking Sunday night game feature a divisional matchup where the Chiefs will be looking to revenge their single loss of the season to the Las Vegas Raiders, which is the only game where Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception. The Raiders continue to struggle with Covid-19 protocols as one of the most heavily fined teams in the league had over half of their defensive starters put on the Covid-19 list this week due to close contact to a person with a positive test. As of Saturday there had been no further positive tests so if that holds they should get them all back for this game, but they have not been in the facility whilst the Chiefs are coming off a bye and Andy Reid has an 18-3 record after the bye so I have a feeling I know which way this contest will go. The Raiders will be hoping to confound this record but have not exactly had the ideal preparation to do so.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This should be a really good game as the LA Rams have been compeititve in pretty much every game this season and have a top ten offence and defence. The issue could be that Jared Goff is a quarterback who tends to either look really good or confused, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their best defence by DVOA absolutely have the capacity to take Goff out of his game. The additional problem for the Rams is losing Andrew Whitworth at left tackle to a knee injury against the Seahawks last wee as even at 39 Whitworth was playing great football and he will be a big miss. The Bucs have only three losses this season, two against a Saints team that seem to have their number and to a Bears team that the Bucs should have beaten on a Thursday night if it was not for the number of penalties they gave away. The unsurprising bad news stories that follow the unstable Antonio Brown hit this week, demonstrating the dangers of signing him but for now the Bucs are coming off a big win against the Panthers and will be looking to prove their status against the Rams and Chiefs ahead of their week thirteen bye. I would not like to bet against the Bucs winning this week, but the line did give me pause picking the game, but as much as I rate Sean McVay as an offensive mind, the known issues with Goff against good defences would already worry me before he lost his left tackle.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week 10

12 Thursday Nov 2020

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Well, it’s not exactly a milestone on the way to overhauling the lead Dan extended by a point in week nine, but I am slowly approaching fifty percent in my picks, which feels like I might get back to some kind of respectability by season’s end even if I don’t pull off the comeback, but I’m not ruling that out either so let’s get to Competition Thursday for week ten.

Gee:Week 9:  8 – 6Overall:  65 – 69
Dan:Week 9:  9 – 5Overall:  72 – 62

Colts @ Titans (-2.5)

I’m really looking forward to this game as it is a big divisional encounter between two winning teams so there are big repercussions on the result. It is also an interesting line as my first instinct is to pick the Titans at home on a short week, but looking at the consensus number online it would seem like this is actually good value line for the Colts. However, whilst the Colts have a really good defence, I don’t entirely trust their offence with a thirty-nine year old Philip Rivers at quarterback, plus the Titans are back to winning ways so whilst I could very well still be wrong, I am going to back my first thought as that is often as good a way to pick as any.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Survivor Competition

So, by adopting Dan’s strategy of picking against the Jets I kept pace with him in week nine as he correctly picked the Packers to beat the 49ers. The Jets strategy is unavailable to both of us this week as they are on a bye, as are the Cowboys so looking at the matchups featuring teams with losing records in week ten I can’t go for the Packers against the one win Jaguars as I’ve already used them, so I’m going to go for the Browns hosting the two win Texans. Dan is clearly feeling brave as he is going with the Vikings on the road in Chicago against the Bears but he was clearly feeling good about it when I queried it so we shall have to see how that works out.

Current Score

Gee: 6
Dan: 7

Week 10 Selection:

Gee:     Browns
Dan:    Vikings

Bold Prediction of the Week

With us recording the podcase early this week, I only have the one bold prediction, which is that the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings will beat the 5-4 Chicago Bears, which was bold enough for Dan to allow and that’s all that really matters to me. I wonder if my prediction had an effect on his survivor pick.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Nine

05 Thursday Nov 2020

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It’s been a weird couple of days, and throw in the first site visit for work in months and my writing time has simply disappeared. The major news appears to still be Covid-19 with the 49ers having to close their facilities and the Packers missing multiple running backs through injury/Covid-19, but tonight’s game is still going ahead. So, as the NFL is waiting for no-one this season I guess I had better get on with Competition Thursday for week nine!

Gee:Week 8:  8 –6Overall:  57 – 63
Dan:Week 8:  7 – 7Overall:  63 – 57

Packers @ 49ers (+2.5)

This is a bit of a cheat line for us, as with the injuries and disruption to the 49ers preparation with their facility closed due to positive Covud tests the consensus line I am seeing is already up to +7 so whilst it’s always possible that the 49ers could spring a surprise, when you add both one of the best tight ends in the game in George Kittle and starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the already extensive 49ers’ injury list it seems unlikely. I’m a little nervous about the Packers run defence going against a Kyle Shanahan co-ordinated offence but the Packers, whilst having their own injury/Covid-19 cluster at running back, have Aaron Rodgers and only need to win by a field goal to cover this line and I like that option.

Gee’s Pick:     Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Survivor Competition

Well, Dan changed his plan last week and took the Buccaneers against the Giants and won, whilst I had my third eliminating pick when the Packers had a dud against the Vikings and mainly Dalvin Cook (which in turn makes me marginally more worried about my pick above). This gives Dan a point lead as we go into week nine and Dan has gone for the Packers tonight as he doubles up on tonight’s game. I’m taking a leaf out of his book and I’m going for the Patriots at the Jets, which might be a slightly risky pick but hopefully will pay off in the long run.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 6

Week 9 Selection:

Gee:    Patriots
Dan:    Packers

Bold Prediction of the Week

I once again made two bold predictions this week, which as much anything is because I’m struggling to find them and am never sure that Dan will allow them but for week nine they are:

  1. The New York Giants will beat the Washington Football Team.
  2. The Jets will score more points against the Patriots than the Cowboys will against the Steelers.

If I manage another 50/50 week I will be very happy.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Eight

29 Thursday Oct 2020

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Well, week seven was pretty good to me as I picked up three points on Dan so I achieve my next target of getting his lead down to single digits so now I need to get within a couple of points and we’ll have a proper competition. There’s plenty of time left so let’s get to work on week eight’s competition Thursday.

Gee:Week 7:  7 – 7Overall:  49 – 57
Dan:Week 7:  4 –10Overall:  56 – 50

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is an odd game to pick as both teams are coming off a loss, but the Atlanta Falcons only have one win this season and the Panthers have now established themselves as a competitive franchise despite the rebuild on defence and the number of veterans who left or retired in the off-season. The consensus lines and numbers are suggesting I take the Falcons and they did run the Lions close in week seven, but right now I have a lot more faith in the Panthers and as they are ranked eight places better than the Falcons by DVOA and are at home on a Thursday night I am going to go for the Panthers as they only have to win by a field goal to cover this line. I am aware that my old maxim of always back the home team on a Thursday night unless there was a really good reason to didn’t hold up, but I have a lot more faith in the coaching of the Panthers so that is where I am putting my faith.

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Survivor Competition

We held serve last week with the strategy of picking against the Jets maintaining a 100% record, and there is little to suggest that will change this week with them taking on the Chiefs, but having lost with the Chiefs against the Raiders earlier this season I have to look. somewhere else in week eight. Looking at the matchups and the teams I have left I think my best option is to select the Packers hosting the Vikings and just hope I don’t’ get any divisional weirdness. Dan has gone in a different direction grabbing the Buccaneers visiting the Giants, which certainly makes sense as a pick.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 8 Selection:

Gee:    Packers
Dan:    Buccaneers

Bold Prediction of the Week

So Dan allowed both of my bold predictions on the podcast this week  in a triumph of doing some preparation ahead of recording, but also ensuring I have to keep doing something I fundamentally disagree with.

My first prediction was the Tua Tagovailoa will have more passing yards against the Rams than fellow rookie quarterback Justin Herbert will against the Broncos.

Secondly, the Bills will score more points this week against the Patriots than they did against the Jets in week seven.

Testing the Protocols

30 Wednesday Sep 2020

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This week’s midweek post is writen in the unusual position of being published later than our podcast as we were racing the news.

After a solitary Falcons’ player testing positive on Saturday turned into eight positive tests for the Tennessee Titans on Tuesday, including three players, events have led to the closing of both the Titans’ facility and that of their opponents on Sunday the Vikings.

According to ESPN the three players are from disparate position groups – a starting nose tackle, the long snapper and a practice squad tight-end, but now everyone holds their breath as we see if the cases spread amongst the Titans players and staff, or to anyone with the Vikings.

It is not unexpected for there to be positive tests, but this is the next true test of the protocols agreed by the NFL and the NFLPA and I certainly have been checking for news updates more frequently than normal. What I’m hoping for is that the outbreaks remain in small numbers and that no one has a life changing version of the illness. There are plenty of those who would say that these players get paid enough money to take this risk, but many players earn nothing like the millions the stars do and they only have one body and one life to use it in.

We are living in an uncertain world, and this is yet another stark reminder of that fact. I just hope the plans are up to facing the reality of playing a season in the middle of a pandemic, because just writing that sentence feels ridiculous.

And with that said, I suppose I had better get back to my usual in-season mid-week post…

What I Saw

Week three started with a one side affair in Jacksonville that saw the Miami Dolphins run out comfortable winners 31–13 over the Jaguars. Dan is still annoyed he forget to put the followingin the podcast last night so he would like to say:

‘It was good to see that they allowed the Jags to run at about a third capacity, which actually means that attendance at TIAA Bank Field is up on last season!’

The Dolphins were able to move the ball consistently with a balanced attack, whilst the Jaguars who I praised coming into this game struggled with the Dolphins’ defence playing more zone defence and with the absence of DJ Chark. Undrafted rooking running back James Robinson still looked good for the Jaguars, but wasn’t able to drag the team into contention. It was obviously good for the Dolphins to get the win and Brian Flores has already established a culture with the Dolphins and what they are looking for this season is progress from last year. The only concern is that the future of this franchise lies in the hands of Tua Tagovailoa and as fun as it is to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick play quarterback, the Dolphins are not building towards the future with the thirty-eight year old journeyman and the wonder has to be when Tagovailoa to play. To be fair, we have just seen with Patrick Mahomes that the old way of sitting a quarterback for a year can still work as they learn how to be a pro, but we shall have to see if that is the plan or not. The Jaguars need to get back to winning ways, but a long week before travelling to take on the Bengals might be the very tonic they need.

On Sunday the Bengals decided to tease me with their third tie since 2014 and I was there for the 2016 tied game in London. The Bengals defence looked like it might have coped a little better with the Eagles, but the offensive line is still struggling so Joe Mixon is having to work very hard for his yards and Joe Burrow is still looking poised as he searches for his first win. There was a nasty moment when Burrow was force out of the game after a hard hit and I hope there are not too many more of them and the line begins to come together but I’m not convinced, although some of the young receivers are beginning to get more involved inthe game.  As for the Eagles, there are some very recognisable names on the roster, but things are not working for them right now and they are beginning to look like a bad football team. It is not as if the Bengals are a good team, they haven’t won away from Cincinnati since week four of the 2018 season, so dropping to 0-2-1 when facing a road trip to the 49ers and Steelers makes the Eagles’ prospects look pretty bad, particularly as their week six game is against the Ravens. This is a franchise who need to find some kind of consistent formula to move the ball on offence as their eighteenth ranked by DVOA defence doesn’t looked equipped to lead the way, particularly as their ranking drops down to twenty-third against the pass.

If the Eagles are having a disastrous start to the season, the New Orleans Saints are having a difficult one that saw them lose 37-30 to the Green Bay Packeers in the Sunday Night prime time slot. I actually thought that the Saints offence moved the ball more consistently than the Packers, with Alvin Kamara leading the way on the ground but Drew Brees if not actually bad, is not up to his usual standards though the absence of receiver Michael Thomas still hobbled by injury will not help. However, off-season acquisition Emmanuel Sanders looked to be building some chemistry with Brees in this game. The problem is that whilst a 2-1 start is perfectly fine, the Packers are looking pretty good at 3-0 right now and whilst their defence only ranks twenty-eighth by DVOA, that doesn’t really matter when Aaron Rodgers is looking so comfortable in his second year running Matt LaFleur’s offence. Even without favourite receiver Davante Adams, Rodgers was able to generate big plays with Allen Lazard getting deep multiple times on a day when he finished with one hundred and forty-six yards and touchdown. The Saints home field advantage is lessened by not being able to have their loud fans, but playing in a dome is still preferable to having Brees at forty-one playing in Green Bay in January and that looks a step closer with this loss. There’s plenty of time to make up ground and a lot can change between now and then, but that is definitely the kind of stakes these two teams are playing for so this is a loss that could come back to haunt the Saints..

Finally, the much heralded (including by me) Monday night game saw the Kansas City Chiefs roll into Baltimore and hand the Ravens a 34-20 loss. The Chiefs were able to get a lead and build upon it with their versatile offence, as the defence also managed to contain the Ravens offence. It seems that Ravens still have problem throwing the ball when this is obviously necessary, and so as good as this team are, they have limits when playing against a similar level of opponent right now. This game also served a timely reminder of just how good Patrick Mahomes is, as well as how electric Lamar Jackson is running the ball. We could be in the early stages of what ccould become a spectacular rivalry, but for that to happen Jackson and the Ravens need to find a way or a receiver capable of getting them receptions when the defence knows they have to throw the ball. This matchu cannot be a rivalry if one team always plays a team close but never wins. If there is a franchise that is capable of taking this step then it is the Ravens, but they must stop this narrative taking hold and becoming fact.

What I Think

I think we have been lucky for things to go so smoothly through the pre-season and early weeks of the season, but we are about to find out how difficult it is going to be to get through to the end. Since I wrote the introduction to this post, the game between the Steelers and Titans has now been postponed (perhaps to Monday or Tuesday) and no one knows if something will have to happen with the Vikings at Texans game. Every NFL team and fan is currently holding their breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop.

The NFL has plenty of resources to throw at the problem, but like everyone else it is a non-sentient virus that’s is driving the decisions whether we like it or not.

What I Know

In our dynasty league it is the first TWF showdown between Dan’s Dolphins and Gee’s Tigers and perhaps we need to work on our franchise names.

On the field the matchup I am most looking forward to is Andy Reid’s offence going up against Bill Belichick’s defence.

Off the field, the NFL have issued another strongly worded warning to coaches who won’t wear face masks on the side lines, threatening suspensions and loss of draft picks. With players testing positive, and other players being spotted without masks at a charity event with members of the public, the NFL will want to get hold of the situation because we are beginning to see how the current solution that has worked so far is not that far away from falling apart.

It’s going to take real discipline and a lot of effort to get through the season.

What I Hope

What I hope this week is that we find a way through, if not to the end of the season then without a life changing infection for someone.

That is something that could be said of any season in the NFL, but their is added complexity to it this years. Let’s see what the week holds.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Three Picks

27 Sunday Sep 2020

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It’s been an tough week, but Dan will be cheered a little by the Dolphins getting their first win of the season. I know that one team will leave the match of the Bengals and Eagles with their first win of the season, but I wouldn’t like to say which. In theory there should be more 1-2 or 2-1 teams that winless or lossless teams, but I’m not sure how easy that will be to pick this week once the lines are in place.

My other concern is that we have our first positive Covid-19 test of a player since the season started, and now that games have been for long enough to be through the incubation period of the virus we shall see truly how the Covid protols hold up.

Early Games:

I think there are two stand out games in the early slate of games, although there is still plenty of interest in all games.

The Buffalo Bills host the LA Rams, which is a fascinating matchup of the Sean McVay’s rejuvenated Rams’ offence against a the Bills defense who have slipped out of the top ten by DVOA so far this season, but should provide an interesting matchup. I’m also curious to see if Josh Allen can continue his streak of throwing for over three hundred yards thanks to off-season addition of Stefon Diggs and a possible further improvement in the young quarterback’s play. I’m not looking forward to picking the game but I definitely think this is one to watch.

The other game that leaps out of the early slate is the 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders travelling to take on the New England Patriots. The Raiders offence looks promising, but as I said in my preview, the Raiders won’t be able to take advantage of this development if their defense doesn’t improve markedly and whilst a ranking of thirtieth by DVOA is technically an improvement on last season, it won’t be enough for them to be serious contenders. I think this is where they get a dose of reality as the New England Patriots may only just be top ten in overall DVOA but boy Cam Newton looked good last week in their close loss to the Seahawks. I trust Belichick and his staff to make a good enough defense by mid-season for them to be competitive and I think both teams leave this game with a 2-1 record.

Other things of interest:

  • I am curious to see if the Atlanta Falcons get their season turned around and it feels to me more likely that the Falcons will get their first win than both team’s current streak continues. That said, the Bears top ten defense might contain the Falcons offence, whilst the questions around Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will not be answered by his performance against the Falcons’s twenty-eighth ranked defense.
  • The Eagles may well get their first win this season, but asking them to win by a clear touchdown against a team that has kept both games within a touchdown as Joe Burrow impresses early.
  • The Browns got a good win last week, but this is another line where I’m not sure it’s really justified. The Washington Football Team are not good, but whilst I only saw a quarter of the Cardinal’s offence going against the Football Team’s defense, I was impressed with what I saw from the Cardinals and Washington’s defence is ranked first by DVOA. I was also impressed by what the Browns did last week, but I think the Browns are going to have to prove it to me before I start picking them with this kind of line.
  • This might be a trap, but with a defense that is ranked twentieth by DVOA and an offence that seems to have real problems I am really not sure that the Vikings can turn it round. The Titans may have been in two close games, but they have won them both and I have a feeling they will run out close winners. However, there are both numbers and record reasons to think that the Vikings might do something in this game, if nothing else because the question is are the Titans really good enough to start the season 3-0. I’m really not sure.
  • The 49ers are having all kinds of injury problems and still are favourites to beat the New York Giants. Even though they will be missing Saquon Barkley I like the Giants to keep this one closer than five points at home.
  • I have a feeling the Texans might just be bad this season. The offence is struggling without DeAndre Hopkins and the defence hasn’t inspired. I think the depth the roster has lost through trading away draft picks is hurting this team and that GM Bill O’Brien has let down coach Bill O’Brien. It’s not impossible that the Steelers will have a let down this game, but at home I like them to win and cover a line where the half point scares, except the consensus is another half point higher. I would stay away from this game if I could but I can’t.

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Rams @ Bills (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Bengals @ Eagles (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Washington @ Browns (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Titans @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Raiders @ Patriots (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Late Games:

There’s several interest contests in the late games this Sunday, but the pick has to the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Seattle Seahawks. This is going to see two teams powered by their offence do battle and it could well be this game is decided by who has the ball last. The interesting thing is that the disparity between offence and defense is actually biggest for the Seahawks, but Russel Wilson is playing so well that I’m confident that this will be a great game, but very possibly another close one for the Cowboys and I very much doubt that the best special teams in the league by DVOA through week two will gift them anything on special teams like the Falcons did last Sunday.

Notes from the other late games:

  • The Jests are such a mess that this line is massive, and is actually higher by consensus, which means there could be value in picking the Colts. I’m really not sure where to go in this game as although I expect the Colts to win, are they going to be dominant for a second week in a row?
  • The Panthers are still looking for their first win of the season, but with the Chargers giving the Chiefs a tough game last week despite being forced last minute to start rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. However, the injuries are still piling up for the Chargers again so whilst I like them to win this game, I think the Panthers could well keep this one close.
  • The Bucs are my survivor pick of the week, based on the injuries that the Broncos currently have and chasm between them by overall DVOA. The Broncos have played tougher than I expected, but wile I think the Bucs will win this game the line worries me. I want to stay away but as I can’t I’m going to grab the points at one of the few places where there is still a definite home field advantage, or at least early in the season.
  • I’ve seen a quarter of one game of the Cardinals offence so I really can’t draw any firm conclusions, but I did lke what I saw and it does feel like the Cardinals have enough to beat a Lions team who seem to be the same again under Matt Patricia. I will be curious to see if the Lions can be more competitive this week.

Jets @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Panthers @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Broncos (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Cardinals (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ Saints (-3.5)

I think I have to say that I was wrong about the Packers. I thought they were prime candidates for regression after last season and the lack of receivers they added to the offence, but they have come out and scored forty points each week and looked dominant against the Lions in week two. There are questions surrounding the Saints at the moment and Drew Brees in particular. This could well be the beginning of the end for the forty-one year old quarterback, but any offence is going to miss a piece as important as Michael Thomas is to the Saints and so whilst I don’t think it is time for them to panic yet, the extra half point has me leaning the other way as without the noise of their home fans I expect the Saints to struggle or possibly even lose to the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Monday Night Football

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5)

This might be the matchup of the regular season yet alone the week. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bit of scare last week against the Chargers, but like most good teams found a way to win and certainly a team with Patrick Mahomes always has a chance. However, the Baltimore Ravens are top five by DVOA in all three phases of the game and their offence is coming off a week that saw them put up thirty-three points against the number one ranked defence in the league by DVOA. I also think that the Ravens’ strength in running the ball matches up well with the Chiefs’ defensive liability against the run (twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA) so whilst the Chiefs offence might well be explosive enough to keep them in the contest, I fancy the Ravens to win this one, and could do so well.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

AFC and NFC North Preview

03 Thursday Sep 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Pre-Season

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AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens finished last season with the best regular season record but came up short in the play-offs against a Tennessee Titans team on a roll. This will lead to ongoing conversations about Lamar Jackson’s ability to win play-off games. That question is going to hang around until he does, but Jackson was the 2019 MVP for a reason, namely over three thousand yards of passing and twelve hundred yards on the ground. The Ravens did a great job of building their offence around Jackson and had a top five by DVOA defence to boot. The Ravens are in fact one of the better run franchises in the league so as long as Jackson can stay healthy then it is hard not to see this team competing again this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers went 8-8 last season despite losing veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in week two to an elbow injury. Their defece ranked third in the league by DVOA and their special teams was was top ten but a dead last offence saw them miss out on the play-offs. This is perhaps not surprising given they had no killer Bs left after Big Ben went down with Le’Veon Bell underwhelming for the Jets and Antonio Brown’s erratic and troubling behaviour seeing him barely play for Patriots before being cut for a second time having already failed to make the start of the season with the Raiders. The Steelers are another stable franchise so if Roethlisberger can stay healthy while getting somewhere near his best and the defence manages not to regress too much then they should be in contention come the end of the year. There are no guarantees in the NFL, and the AFC North should be a battle this year but I expect the Steelers to be in contention again as they usually are. That said, out of the thirteen season he has been head coach for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin has only failed to reach the play-offs in five, but that does include the last two seasons. I wouldn’t expect this to lead to problems for Tomlin if there are further struggles this season as the Steelers have been famously patient with their coaches and he did a great job under the circumstances, but it could be one to keep an eye on.

Cleveland Browns

Turmoil seems to follow the Browns ever since their return to the league, but last year was a nightmare. They had play-off ambitions with a talented roster and a new head coach in Freddit Kitches who had established a connection with young quarterback Baker Mayfield in his rookie year. However, things were not right all season. Mayfield regressed in his second season with a falling completion percentage and similar numbers despite starting the full season for the first time. One of his new receiving targets, Odell Beckham was injured all year and so did not look like himself and nothing quite clicked on offence. The defence was hamstrung with Myles Garrett got involved in a fight with Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph, and having hit the quarterback over the head with their own helmet was suspended for the final six games of the season. The Browns come into this season with another new head coach, who almost can’t help being better than Freddie Kitchens and there is still plenty of talent on the roster, but Mayfield needs to take a step as a quarterback and so a lot is resting on how he will run new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s system. I have a feeling that thinkg will be better for the Browns, but in a competitive division I’m not sure if they will be able to push for the play-offs or not.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were truly woeful last year in Zac Taylor’s first season as head coach. Some of that wasn’t his fault as AJ Green was lost to an ankle injury that was picked up at the first training camp practice, which for an NFL 100 event was played on a high school field they should never have been on and soon after that the Bengals’ first round draft pick, left tackle Jonah Williams, was lost to a shoulder injury whilst they were still in camp. In fact, the offensive line was bad all year as the offence struggled so much they had to rip up the approach halfway through to get Joe Mixon going and the defence was bad.  They had the worst record in the league for a reason, but they were within a touchdown in half of their fourteen losses and after several seasons where Andy Dalton could never find the form he showed in the 2015 the Bengals moved on, taking college sensation Joe Burrow with the first pick after his ridiculously good Heisman winning season at LSU where he led the Tigers to the college championship. All the talk is that he’s been learning the playbook during the offseason via zoom and has looked in good in training camp, but who hasn’t looked good in training camp this year? There’s no way to know without seeing him in games, and the offensive line needs to be better for him to operate successfully, but there are still lots of good skill players and if they don’t need a perfect pocket for the quarterback to operate then they stand a solid chance of improving on that side of the ball. The Bengals defence has a re-tooled linebacker group and the team signed some free-agents, but it’s hard to get too excited. I think there is a good chance this team will look better and win some more game, they might even flirt with going .500 but after such a bad season I don’t think you can expect a worst to first type performance with a rookie quarterback, and particularly not in this division. I would love to be proved wrong but I think this should be a season of growth for the Bengals and after last season that will be okay.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

I think this is one of the more intriguing division in football, and last year’s division winners are an interesting case in point. The Packers went 13-3 and got to the Conference Championship game, but were handily beaten by the 49ers and gave up over two-hundred and fifty yards of running in that game. A lot of the talk through the season and on into the off-season was the play of Aaron Rodgers who still threw for over four thousand yards despite what many were calling a down year and his new head coach Matt LaFleur’s focus on running the ball. If there were to be signs of this approach changing, they were not obvious in the Packers offseason. Not only did they not take a receiver again this draft, but they traded up in the first round to select quarterback Jordan Love. It might be that the Packers are taking the view that you should always have a quarterback in development, or that they saw the opportunity to recreate the transition the Packers had from Brett Farve to Rodgers, but it was a significant move. Given the age of Rodgers (36) and the change of both GM and head coach in recent seasons, they could simply be preparing to move on. However, whilst Rodgers is clearly closer to the end of his career than the start, with modern sports medicine and the NFL’s current rules to protect quarterbacks he should still have several productive years yet and has spoken of playing into forties. The Packers might be expected to regress from thirteen wins this season and will be looking to further improve their defence. I suspect they will remain competitive, but I can’t help but feel this will be a team battling to maintain their success rather than taking a step forward.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings won a play-off game against the Saints before losing to the Super Bowl bound 49ers in the divisional round, but this did give quarterback Kirk Cousins his first play-off win of his career. Under head coach Mike Zimmer the Vikings have alternated years in the play-offs with seasons missing out despite being around 8-8, but they had a busy off-season and they would be hoping these transactions will helps them build on last season’s success rather than having a fallow year. However, integrating a draft class of fifteen was always going to be a big task, but doing so with the current practice restriction in place for this season could be a step too far. This is particularly the case for an overhauled secondary that lost three starting corners with over 223 collective career games. I have a lot of faith in coach Zimmer to look after a defence, but it makes me hesitant to be too bullish on them, particularly given the number of offensive coordinators that the Vikings have been through under Zimmer and the fact that they traded away star receiver Stefon Diggs. Going into the season with so many unknows makes it hard to be certain of anything, and given the limited number of games in an NFL season there is a certain amount of randomness built in. I like that Gary Kubiak is the offensive coordinator having consulted last season before Kevin Stefanski left for the Browns, and I think the Vikings will compete for the division but I can easily see things going awry for them in a potentially turmultous season.

Chicago Bears

There is a large amount of anxiety surrounding the Bears, which mainly stems from the quarterback position as Mitchell Trubisky regressed in 2019 after a promising first season in head coach Matt Nagy’s debut as a head coach. I never liked the trade up to pick Trubisky, and that pick looks even worse given that the Bears picked him ahead of both Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The offence ranked a miserable twenty-fifth by DVOA whilst the defence regressed from first in 2018 by DVOA to eighth in 2019. The defence will likely be good enough, but with Trubisky now having Nick Foles in the quarterback room there is the potential for a quarterback controversy, although it is hard to have a huge amount of faith in either one as Foles has a history of inconsistent play. Special mention should go to Khalil Mack as the fearsome pass rusher he is, but I’m not sure that the fairly traditional for the Bears formula of stout defence and a struggling offence is going to cut it in 2020, and likely wasn’t envisioned when offensive minded coach Nagy was hired. The Bears could surprise me, but I’m not putting any faith in it.

Detroit Lions

The Lions opened last season with a concerning draw to the very inexperienced Arizona Cardinals, dragged themselves to 2-0-1, before falling back to 3-3-1 and failing to win another game. They were not helped by losing quarterback Matthew Stafford halfway through the season, who was playing well and very nearly had two and half thousand yards through eight games. My concern here is that the Lions were a nearly team under Jim Caldwell, but 9-7 was not deemed good enough when the Lions missed out on the playoffs and so Matt Patricia was brought in from the Patriots to get the Lions the play-off success Detroit thirsts so much for. However, Patricia has rebuilt the Lions as a pale re-imagining of the Patriots and has been unable to recreate the Patriot’s defensive formula away from Belichick. The Lions have only managed to win nine games in the last two season and whilst I can see that if everything goes right that the Lions might vault the Bears in this division, I’m not sure if I can see them doing much more. Matthew Stafford has some good skill players around him so it’s not impossible, but given the history in Detroit it could take a monumental effort to turn things around. Equally, the Lions could be due for a change, but for whatever reason, I do not find Patricia inspiring but as I tend to hope for success he could yet prove me wrong.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Super Bowl Sunday

02 Sunday Feb 2020

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Here it is the big day and the last game of the season, plenty to write about, but there is the final round of trivia to go through first.

Dan’s Dad asked us:

‘First stop this week are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, tell me:
The Bucs played in only one tie game in the 20th century. Who was it against?

Moving onto the Tennessee Titans so tell me:
Which player started at quarterback for the first game of the 2005 season against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh

At last we get into DC and for the Washington Redskins tell me:
The Washington Redskin franchise began in 1932 in the NFL. What was the team’s name in that season?

Trawling for questions throws up some interesting info and with the closing question for the season, which I predict will be got by both, is

Which famous football czar ended his career in Washington as coach?’

This is a mixed bag of questions for questions, some of which I think I might know and some that are a real shot in the dark, with the majority being the latter.

We’ll start with the opening question that very much falls into the shot in the dark category, but I am going to plump for on NFC team on the grounds as they play them more and going with Atlanta Falcons as a divisional opponent who have been around long enough to up the chances by having more games.

As for the Titans’ quarterback, my first thought was Vince Young, but I think that 2005 is a bit early so I’m going to plump for the only other Titans quarterback that I can think of from around this period and hope 3D isn’t living up to his nickname – that quarterback, Steve McNair

I have really struggled with the early franchise names and this is no exception. I have no memory or knowledge of a previous pace for Washington and it seems baffling that they changed to a name that many find offensive so I don’t know what they could have had before or if they were even in Washington. I’m going to have to try a total guess so how about the Washington Presidents? I’m sure it’s not that but I genuinely have no cluse.

This problem had me stumped the most, particularly with the whole football czar angle until I had slept on the question and instead of trying to pick out some complex link to a modern coach that I couldn’t work out, I had what I hope is a flash of inspiration. As I have very much discovered this season, my knowledge of NFL history is somewhat patchy, but for all that Vince Lombardi is forever associated with Green Bay, I think I remember listening to a podcast on him and unless I’m completely misremembering his final year of coaching was with Washington. I think…. Well that’s it, I can’t do any more this season so over to Dan:

‘Final week then, it’s all down to this! After having amassed a 3-point lead, I could grumble about this week being 4 points per question, but I shall resist! Couple of guesses, couple I know this week.

I’ve got a feeling that Tampa’s tie was this season and I think it was against the Lions – probably wrong but I’ll go with that.

For Tennessee, I’m slightly hesitant as I’m not sure if this guy was still there by 2005 but I’ll go with Steve McNair as I know he was in Tennessee for years and would have been roughly around this time.

The former name of the Redskins I have no idea of, so I’ll guess at the DC Defenders, and forfeit that question!

And finally for the bonus question, my first thought was John Madden, but Im fairly sure he retired as a Raider (or at least was there for years) and then the timing hit me – I’ll go with the trophy namesake, Vince Lombardi!

Enjoy the Bowl!’

Kansas City Chiefs Vs San Francisco 49ers

This is game has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowls we have had in a while, with a couple of outstanding play-calling coaches whose offences will have different approaches but are no less effective so let’s take look at the match-ups before I take a swing at how this game might go.

I’ll start with what is going to be the strength on strength match-up when the Chiefs have the ball. The Chiefs finished the regular season with the third ranked offence by DVOA but that doesn’t tell the whole story as Patrick Mahomes missed a pair of games after he dislocated his knee cap and it took several more weeks after his return to look like last season’s all conquering MVP. However, whilst he couldn’t match last years numbers the Chiefs finished the season winning six straight games and rolled right into the playoffs. There is a compelling argument for Mahomes to be the best quarterback in the league right now and with the speed that the Chiefs have at receiver this makes them one of the fastest strike offences in the league. If the combination of Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and rookie Mecole Hardman at receiver were not scary enough, the Chiefs also have one of the premiere pass catching tight-ends in Travis Kelce who actually led the team in receiving yards like this. Andy Reid has always liked his offence to throw the ball, and the devastating speed is how the Chiefs can be twenty-four points down in the second quarter of a playoff game and go into half time leading,

However, the 49ers had the second ranked defence in the league by DVOA in the regular season and will hope that they can stifle the Chiefs’ devastating speed with their four man pass rush and quality coverage. A lot of the pass rush plaudits have gone to rookie Nick Bosa, but they have five first round picks in their defensive line rotation and it is Arik Armstead who led the team in sacks. However, one of the important things in this game will be the defensive line’s ability to rush in a coordinated manner as apart from his remarkable ability throwing the ball, Patrick Mahomes is also a capable rusher as he demonstrated against the Titans with over fifty yards of rushing. If the 49ers hope to win with coverage, that will be tested by both the Chiefs’ team speed but also their pre-snap motion and the myriad ways of that Andy Reid likes to attack a defence. There will be screens a plenty the 49ers will be hoping to keep the Chiefs in front of them and have them consistently maintain long drives.

When the 49ers have the ball they will build of their running game, which they have lent on heavily in the post-season. One of the narratives of the build up as has been that the 49ers have lost faith in Jimmy Garoppolo, but the team have vehemently denied that in the build up this week and my mind can’t help but go back to the week fourteen game against the Saints where Garoppolo threw for nearly three hundred and fifty yards and four touchdowns. I suspect the 49ers will be hoping to run the ball and control the clock to an extent, but they will be aware of how the Chiefs sold out to stop the run against the Titans in the previous round and so there will be more passing in this game. The 49ers have their own quality receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Deebo Samuel, but whilst Kelce is one of the best pass-catching tight-ends in the league, this season George Kittle has established himself as one of the best all round tight-ends in the game who loves blocking as much as catching the ball and refusing to be tackled. I expect the 49ers to be a more balanced offence than the Chiefs, but with the speed the 49ers have at running back the are capable of deep strikes on the ground they will be hoping the mixture of outside zones and power running will still be effective against a defence that is likely to be setup to stop them running.

The Chiefs’ defence may only rank fourteenth in the league, but that is a twelve place improvement on where they ranked last year and with an offence as potent as Chiefs, they don’t need to be top ten for them to win the game. The concern is that their rush defence only ranks twenty-sixth so if they are to contain the run they may have to commit eight players to stop the run leaving the secondary exposed. In Tyrann Mathieu the Chiefs picked up a versatile safety who will be important in getting the defence lined up and it will be interesting to see how the Chiefs try to cope with the 49ers varied attack.

We have known for years that Andy Reid is an excellent coach, his teams are always competitive and the results of pairing him with a truly elite quarterback have been impressive. There have been questions about his clock management but this looks to be as good a team as he has ever had. This is not Reid’s first Super Bowl and there has been plenty of talk about this being his chance to secure a Hall of Fame slot. If Mahomes can stay healthy then there could well be more, but people thought that about Dan Marino and he famously never made it back to the Super Bowl so we can’t take it for granted. If Andy Reid has scars from his previous Super Bowl appearance then so does Kyle Shanahan who was the offensive coordinators for the Atlanta Falcons when they suffered the incredible turn around from the New England Patriots. This game pits two of the best offensive minds in the game against each other, and as good as Reid is coming off a bye you can argue that the 49ers have the better overall team.

I’ve heard the arguments for both teams, with the 49ers being tipped as the better overall team and others unwilling to pick against Parick Mahomes. I wouldn’t want to pick this game. I have seen Garoppolo keep his team in a shoot out with the Saints and win, but we should not forget the skills players that Mahomes have to work with. If the 49ers defence gets on top it could be a dour game but I think the most likely outcome is a relatively high scoring game and I have a feeling that the winner will be whichever team has the ball at the end. So much could happen, but I feel like this could be a truly exceptional game. There are no guarantees, but I think this last game of the 2019 season could for once live up to the hype, and I can’t think of a better way to finish the season.

Let’s settle in for the big one – as Super Bown LIV is here.

DVOA is Football Outsiders’ statistic to measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

The Toughest Loss

23 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Well, we know the Super Bowl match-up, which looks as good as I can remember for a long time so let’s take a quick look at how we got them before we say goodbye to those who fell at the final hurdle.

What I Saw

The first game on Sunday followed the pattern of the Chief’s previous game, but whilst putting up a better fight that then Texans, the Tennessee Titan’s ultimately could not keep with up with the Chiefs on the road.

The Titans took an early lead and held it for most of the half, but they were not able to hold it until half time as the Chiefs once again demonstrated just how explosive their offence is. This time it was Sammy Watkins who led the teams in yards whilst Tyreek Hill caught two touchdowns.  Patrick Mahomes once again looked remarkable for the Chiefs, scoring the go ahead touchdown on an unforgettable run as well as once again demonstrating that he is possibly the best quarterback in the game right now.

The Titans didn’t exactly do badly on defence, but you are going to have to score points to beat the Chiefs and Derek Henry could only managed sixty-nine yards after the sequence of heroic games. With the run bottled up and the play-action passes slowing down after the initial outburst the Titans were not able to keep up with a healthy Mahomes and there’s no shame in that.

The next game was much less of a contest as the Green Bay Packers were held scoreless in the first half, going in 27-0 at half-time and whilst the Packers technically won the second half, they couldn’t get to within two scores of the 49ers.

The toughest thing to take for the Packers and their fans is the complete domination of the run game with the 49ers’ Raheem Mostert running for two-hundred and twenty yards and the 49ers only attempting to throw the ball eight times. I wonder how the 49ers will approach the next game but that’s a discussion for another day.

If feels like we have got two great teams in the Super Bowl, but it has been interesting to hear how these are probably the worst games to lose as you’re so close to the Super Bowl, which even if you do lose there will still be the stories and the build up. I can’t bring myself to care about the Pro Bowl so let’s say goodbye properly to the Titans and the Packers.

The Toughest Loss

The Tennessee Titans had a rough start to the season, but in took off when they made the switch to Ryan Tannehill as starting quarterback. In Derek Henry they had the league’s leading rusher and iookie AJ Brown broke a thousand yards receiving although he was quiet in the playoffs. The big question surrounding their quarterbacks seems to have been answered as it is hard not to see Tannehill returning, but there are several other players who also need resigning and we’ll have to see how they manage to pull things together but it feels like this team have taken on the character of their coach Mike Vrabel, and it seems like they may well be competitive again next season.

With Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback you should always have a chance, but time is running out for the Green Bay Packers to get a second Super Bowl with him, and whilst this was a more balanced team than in recent years, the offence looks like it could use more receiving options and the defence has to shore up its run defence. The Packers have re-modelled their roster since Brian Gunterkist took over, but there is still work to be done and a closing window of opportunity before they have to find Rodgers’ replacement.

What We’ve Been Asked

‘It’s nearly the end of the season and I believe that the Super Bowl could be one of the most appetising prospects for some time.

What took me aback in the first game last weekend was that the Titans took an unexpected and significant early lead, but the Chiefs were not tardy in making amends and gained a lead they would not lose before half time. A dour scoreless third quarter was followed by an effective Chiefs performance which augers well for the 2nd Feb.

The NFC game, it is true, brought together two teams who have had solid, consistent seasons and the prospects were good. It’s not just because I’m a Vikings fan which makes it hard to favour the Packers but I’ve seen the 49ers consistently turn in workmanlike performances and that is what happened here. With the Packers shut out in the first half the game was all but over before there was a reply. Even with SF easing down the die was cast and my expected Super Bowl was delivered.

For the record, I’ll pick the Chiefs by 6

Which brings us, must we, to the Pro-Bowl. I know many find it a nice way of rounding out the season but for me it’s my ‘bye week’.

The idea of sending two coachloads of very rich athletes, who haven’t played well enough over the season to make it to Prize Day, off on a ‘jolly’ just doesn’t do it for me. Whether it’s like a prize for turning up or another money making-opportunity, you choose.

I can’t see how, in such a short time, even a good coach can mould a disparate crop of athletes into anything more than a team akin to a good College set up I don’t know. OK, some fans get a few days away and get to see some players playing together which they wouldnt get to see but still it leaves me cold.

Rant over, it’s time we moved onto the Trivia.

There were 3 questions this week as we steer toward completing the 32.

We started in Oakland asking “ Who did the Oakland Raiders play when they made it to Super Bowl II?” I think Gee’s thought process was well argued and he correctly scored the point for picking the Green Bay Packers.

The Raiders met the Packers on January 14, 1968 in Miami at the Orange Bowl. The Packers beat the Raiders 33-14.

Moving on it was Philadelphia where I asked  “Which Eagle quarterback threw for 464 yards in one game setting a team record?”

This was Donovan McNabb and they both mcNabbed a point for giving me the right answer.

McNabb’s big day was against the Green Bay Packers on December 12, 2004. The Eagles won 47-17 at Lincoln Financial Field. Randall Cunningham set the previous mark at 447 yards in a win against the Redskins in 1989.

Finally we hit Pittsburgh so tell me, “In the Steelers’ first Super Bowl appearance, who did they defeat? “

Gee had the jitters because while it would fit, he didn’t know if 3D was coming into play. Well, this time it wasn’t (but it may return soon)

The answer was, “Minnesota Vikings”

Super Bowl IX saw Pittsburgh defeat the Vikings 16-6. The game capped off a 10-3-1 1974 season and was played January 1975 at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana.

No points either way so this week it ran out 2-1 to Gee bringing the totals to Gee 28 v Dan 31. Very close with 6 questions to go.

The first 2 of which are

San Francisco 49ers:

How many 49er quarterbacks were inducted into the Hall of Fame in the 20th century?

Seattle Seahawks

Which player finished the 2003 season as the Seahawks starting quarterback?

Enjoy the Pro Bowl’

The Conference Championship Games

19 Sunday Jan 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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We are running out of games, but the upside is the quality of the contests now that we’re down to the four teams left. I am incredibly excited about tonight’s games, but before I look at them I have to fail at another week’s trivia questions.

Dan’s Dad asked us:

‘We start at Oakland and the question is:
Q1.  Who did the Oakland Raiders play when they made it to Super Bowl II?

Moving on we get to Philadelphia and I want to know:
Q2.  Which Eagle quarterback threw for 464 yards in one game setting a team record?

Finally this week we arrive in Pittsburgh. So tell me:
Q3.  In the Steelers first Super Bowl appearance, who did they defeat?’

I am trying to make an informed guess for question one, where I’m slightly worried that my answer is too often the Packers when it comes to the early Super Bowls, but I think they won the first two Super Bowls and so beat the Raiders.

I’m less sure about this next question, my first instinct was trying to work out if either Randall Cunningham or Ron Jaworski would be the answer, but framed in the context of overall NFL passing they probably played too long ago to pick up such spectacular numbers and so my mind turns to Donovan McNabb as a modern era quarterback who played under Andy Read so with that neat tie in to today’s games I am setting with McNabb.

Whilst I can see 3D asking two questions where the answer is the Packers, I don’t think they made the Super Bowl after the early few until Brett Farve led them there in the 90s and so I’m trying to remember who the Bliztburgh Steelers played in their four Super Bowl wins. I probably should know this, but I’m blanking a little, but the Dallas Cowboys are the team lurking in my head so I might as well plump for them.

Now over to Dan:

‘Right, not long now and I was more than shocked that I got any points at all last week, let alone 4 for 2 correct answers!!

Oakland: I don’t know the answer to this so I’m going to guess. Super Bowl 2 would have to mean it’d be an NFC team who has been around a long time. I’ll guess it was the Chicago Bears.

Philadelphia: Think I know this one – I had a jersey of his while I was at uni. I think it’s Donovan McNabb.

Pittsburgh: The Steelers have been in loads of super bowls so this could be anyone. It’ll be another guess I’m afraid so… maybe the Green Bay Packers?

While I’m writing, I’m REALLY hoping that the Titans make it to the Bowl! I always said Tannehill wasn’t as bad as he appeared in Miami and poor coaching and offensive lines meant he looked worse. If they don’t though, I’ll be supporting Kansas in the bowl as Mahomes has been so exciting to watch in his 2 years in the league – he more than deserves a ring already!’

Tennessee Titans (6th) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2nd)

The AFC Conference Championship pits the Titans going for their third upset in a row as they travel to Arrowhead stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs. I have so much respect for Andy Reid as a coach and he apparently also seems to be a really nice guy, but for all his success he has only won one of the six previous conference championship games he has made and he has not won a Super Bowl. One of the big topics of discussion this week was whether he was a Hall of Fame coach without a Super Bowl win and that this was one of his better chances to get that win. However, even as impressive as the Chiefs performance last week was, the Titans are a much stiffer opponents than a Texans team who never fully convinced me this season.

The Titans come into this game full of belief that between their defence and Derek Henry’s ability to finish a game that they can beat the Chiefs, not least because they have already done it once this season. The difference this time is that Patrick Mahomes is a lot further away from his dislocated knee cap than he was when he faced them in week ten and indeed the Chiefs have not lost a game since. You can’t rule out the Titans winning this game having already beaten the Patriots and the Ravens, but the Chiefs’ offence is even more multi-faceted than the Ravens and with an improved defence from last year and fresh from a fifty point outburst last week, my hunch is that the Chiefs are going to win out in this one.

Green Bay Packers (2nd) @ San Francisco 49ers (1st)

The NFC Conference Championship games pits the first and second seeds against each other as the Green Bay Packers return to Levi’s Stadium hoping to do better than the 37-8 loss to the San Francisco 49ers that was the result of their week twelve game.

The Packers have consistently won all season but the 49ers look like one of the most complete teams in the league and will be a real handful. The addition of receiver Emmanuel Sanders via trade and the development of rookie Deebo Samuels has given the 49ers’ offence the passing options to complement their stable of running backs, whilst tight-end George Kittle has played so well this season he has been called Gronk 2.0 by some in the media. The 49ers defence has been fearsome, finishing the season ranked second by DVOA, with their defensive line causing havoc against the Vikings last week.

That said, the Packers defence has been much better and in Matt LaFleur’s first season they have finally had the defence and running game to backup Aaron Rodgers. The concern for me in this game is that outside of Rodger’s link up with receiver Davante Adams, the Packers are very reliant on Aaron Jones running the ball and whilst I don’t exactly expect a repeat of the week twelve humbling, it does feel like the 49ers have the edge as they can play in more ways than the Packers. I think that much like with the Patriots, I won’t believe Rodgers is beaten until I see it, and he has acknowledged that he doesn’t know how many more chances like this he will get, but in the end I have to give the edge to the 49ers in this one.

 

A Chiefs versus 49ers Super Bowl would be pretty spectacular, but there has been no shortage of upsets and truthfully I would be excited by any matchup of these four teams, and with three games left (no, I don’t count the Pro Bowl) we need to enjoy every moment we can before the long off-season begins.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.