Tag Archives: Cleveland Browns

High-fives All Round!

26 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

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So, we’re three weeks into the season now, and things are starting to spice up a bit!

Where to start this week? Suppose I’ll start with the Dolphins as is traditional. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we’re 3-0 – how on earth did that happen?! We’ve not looked overwhelmingly fantastic this year so far, but have been doing enough to win games, which I suppose is all that matters. With only one of our first three opponents going into Week 4 with a winning record (the Titans, if you’re asking), the Patriots this week are going to be a real test.

Performance-wise, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Tannehill and his receiving team seem to be on the same page and working well together, and a special mention this week has to go to Albert Wilson for not only taking the QB role in a trick play touchdown, but also managing to run in a 74 yard touchdown which won us the game – if he doesn’t get a Madden Team of the Week card in Ultimate Team this week, I’ll be very disappointed.

On the other side of the ball though, the Defence weren’t as good as they have been for the first two weeks. Some of that’s down to injury (and ejection!) meaning the line were taking a lot more reps than they would usually have in the Florida sun, but we’ll have to wait and see how they pick up next week.

Elsewhere, there were some comings and goings at the QB position – it was Carson Wentz’ first game since his mid-season injury last year, and he wasted very little time in getting back into the swing of things. That’s hardly surprising though given that the reports coming out of Philadelphia suggested he was keeping deeply ingrained in the foundations of the team during his absence, and was frequently seen as the Eagles biggest fan in their run up to the Super Bowl. Bit harsh on Nick Foles though, I must say. He’s not done too badly this year so far but it’s clear they feel that Wentz is their Franchise QB for years to come, so it makes sense to bring him back.

Jimmy G though has gone the other way. He came off mid-game on Sunday with an injury which has turned out to be an ACL tear officially ruling him out for the rest of the season. I’m really disappointed about this – he was such an energising force for the 49ers at the end of last season (who remembers how badly they were doing before he joined?!) and while it hadn’t completely carried over into this season, he won’t be playing any further part this year.

Oh hang on, how have I got this far into this week’s post without mentioning the BROWNS?! The fans in Cleveland woke up on Friday feeling like it was Christmas morning… not least because the last time they woke up after a win it WAS Christmas Day… in 2016! (Note – I cant take credit for this. Neil Reynolds pointed this out on twitter the other day!). I’m really pleased for Browns fans. I don’t think they’ll get too many wins this year, but they seem to be in a much better place than they have been.

Betting update:

At what point should it get tempting to cash out?! The Rams are now showing themselves as the actual favourites for the Super Bowl this year (according to bet365 anyway!) but it is of course still early days!

Oh, and less said about picks and fantasy the better – stupidly, after sending my picks to Gee, I think I forgot to actually submit them, and as a result, it didn’t register, so this week I’m very thankful to Gee for being the organised member of the team who keeps spreadsheets of this kind of thing! I take back everything I said last week when I was rubbing in the fact I was beating him (although… I think I still am!). [We are in fact level after three weeks -Ed.]

How are your team doing so far this year? Is anyone particularly surprising you so far? Drop me a line on twitter and lets have a chat!

This time next week, I’ll be in Dubai with Mrs. B celebrating our anniversary, so my Dad will be filling my shoes and making his picks for the week against Gee. Be gentle on him – he’s a Vikings fan so hasn’t finished scratching his head over how they managed to lose to the Bills!

Speak to you in a couple of weeks…

@TWFDan

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AAF: Patriots Offence vs Jaguars Defence

23 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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So for week two the matchup that cried out to be looked at in my continuing amateur adventures in film was the New England Patriots offence as they took on the Jaguars defence.

The Jaguars defence looked much how they did last season in that they really rely on their defensive line to get pass rush (although I thought they blitzed a bit more in this game than I was used to) and good coverage to stifle offences. It was also very obvious, particularly in the second half although I could have missed it that they were working really hard to disguise their coverages as their safeties move back and forwards trying to not give anything away.

The Patriots offence is always interesting to study and this game was no different. They use a lot more 21 personnel (two running backs and a tight end) than most teams but that didn’t necessarily mean that would line-up with two backs in the back field. If fact they would even go as far as to line-up with an empty backfield and both James White and fullback James Develin would run routes with White in particular being a genuine target for Brady and finished the game with seventy-three passing yards on seven receptions from eight targets. In fact I think the Patriots do a greater variety of things with the same personnel groupings than any other team in the league (waits for someone to prove me wrong).

However, there is a reason that they just traded with the Browns for Josh Gordon and that is that James White actually led the team in receiving yards in this game. They ran plenty of nice route combinations where the outside receiver run an in behind the slot receiver, which created a lot of space for the receiver against the Jaguars scheme. The problem is that they were not able to stress the defence long, which is why they will be hoping that if nothing else Gordon will be able to make opposing defences stop doubling Rob Gronkowski and run deep routes.

However, if that helps solve the problems in the passing game the other side of the offence still struggled with a faintly anaemic run game that only managed eighty-two yards on twenty-four rushes for an average of 3.4 yards per carry, which would look even worse if you removed the twelve and fifteen yard runs from Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel as well as the ten yard scramble from Tom Brady. That’s cherry picking a little but there were not a lot of holes opened by the Patriots offensive line, and whilst the Jaguars defensive line is very good, it’s something to keep an eye on. Particularly as whilst the Jaguars only sacked Brady twice, they affected a number of throws with their rush and a lesser quarterback than Brady would not have got rid of the ball as quickly or as safely as Brady does.

Still, I wouldn’t be hitting the panic button yet and I will be interested to see if Gordon can be assimilated successfully. The Patriots are a team whose scheme changes from week to week, and so how things develop is definitely something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. Maybe that could be an offseason project!

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 3

20 Thursday Sep 2018

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So I had a disastrous time picking last week, clearly over compensating based on the week one results as I mentioned yesterday so I’ll have to refocus and see if I can catch Dan and his dad given that I’m currently bottom of the league.

Dan and I also failed to get the trivia answer again, and it was one of those where I’m really kicking myself now I’ve seen the answer. Remember, the full results are revealed in the weekly newsletter sent out Wednesday evening (UK time) and you can sign up here.

Gee: Week 2 4-12 Overall 15-17
Dan: Week 2 8-8 Overall 17-15

Jets @ Browns (-3.5)

So this is an actual competitive game between the Jets and Brown on Thursday night that I’m looking forward to seeing. The problem is that this makes picking the game more difficult as the Browns should have arguably won both the games they played this season whereas the Jets fell back to Earth last week after their dismantling of a poor Bills team in week one. So which way do I go on this one? I’m going to stick with my Thursday night rule of picking the home team unless there is a compelling reason not to and with Sam Darnold (who looked like a rookie last week) on the road in a short week against a Browns’ defence that is top ten by DVOA despite facing the Steelers and the Saints that doesn’t give me a reason to not to. The points worry me given that the Browns haven’t won since December 2016 but now is not the time for faint hearts and I have to get the points back somehow.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘I’m struggling to see anything other than a Jets win tonight. They may have looked a bit shaky against the Dolphins on Sunday but I think they have enough to see themselves to a W against the Browns’

Week 3 Trivia

‘Last week I want I asked what it is which connects the following teams:

Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Bengals and Bears.

Well there were some imaginative, if desperate, guesses which resulted in another score of Zero for both. It’s their choice to not use search engines which may make life harder but arguably this may not need Google to solve

Moving swiftly on and hopeful of getting airborne with a simpler one for this week.

Tell me, which is the newest of the NFL Stadiums (in the Lower-48) and when did it open?

Happy Hunting!’

Reacting to the Reaction

19 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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Obviously the most important thing in the NFL last week wasn’t my terrible week of picks, but I fell into a common enough trap for fans (and boy am I kicking myself as I even referred to it when making picks) so as the dust settles on the week let’s take a look at what we can tell.

The mistake I made was reading too much into the week one scores and I said it was more likely that a team be 1-1 than 2-0 or 0-2 but as I said last week, as far as I’m concerned fans of the Bills, Giants, Lions, Texans, Raiders, Cardinals and Seahawks may now officially panic.

The Seahawks have the excuse of being on the road for both games so far but their offence is really struggling, the defence is changing, and so far the bright spot may be the Australian punter who tried drop-kick kickoff (it was a bad week for kickers as Vikings and Browns fans will attest). Some team’s troubles you could see coming like the Bills and the Cardinals, and there was plenty of talk about the Texans offensive line before they underwhelmed against a Tennessee Titans team quarterbacked by Blaine Gabbert.

Another team who are in an unexpected position is the winless Pittsburgh Steelers who still have Le’Veon Bell holding out and had Antonio Brown tweet out trade me to find out regarding a post about how Ben Roethlisberger had made him and also wasn’t there on Monday. Teams can get off to a bad start but this is not the kind of things you usually see in Pittsburgh and it seems like cracks are beginning to show in that team.

The strains in New England offence are obviously being felt as the Patriots have traded for Josh Gordon after the Cleveland Browns finally lost patience with the troubled receiver, apparently after he hurt his hamstring in a photoshoot. I have no idea if the change of scene and the famously strict Patriot approach will help the player but addiction issues are not simple and on a human level I just hope he finds a way to make use of his talents and be in a good place.

Meanwhile the strain was too much for Vontae Davis who retired at half of the Bills heavy loss to the LA Chargers. It’s not something I’ve seen before and there has been those supporting his decision and very vocal players upset by an action they take as quitting. I actually have sympathy with both points of view as in a sport as dangerous as the NFL that requires a physical commitment if you don’t have it, you don’t belong out there but if you’ve dressed for the game don’t you owe it to your team to get to the end as there are only so many corners.

Looking for more positive stories, the Kansas City Chiefs continue to have the most dynamic offence in the league, unsurprisingly toping the offensive DVOA stat thanks to the explosive skills players they have assembled and Patrick Mahomes’s stellar talent, which has allowed Andy Reid to pretty much do what he wants with the office. Even less expected is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offence is ranked second by DVOA as Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to do his best to keep the quarterback job whilst Jameis Winston is suspended. In Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson the Buccaneers have one of the league’s better receiving duos if their quarterback can get them the ball and if you haven’t seen it, watch the clip of tight end OJ Howard running in a seventy-five yard touchdown. Tight end is one of those positions that due to the complexity it often takes time for young players to adjust, but he has amazing speed for the position and could be the next tight end threat to terrify defences.

The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Patriots without their Pro Bowl running back Leonard Fournette but it was the much maligned Blake Bortles who took advantage of an aggressive game plan to throw for over three hundred and fifty yards with four touchdowns to one interception. If they can maintain a balance of improved offence to go alongside their frightening defence then they could very well go one better than last season and make it to the Super Bowl.

In my drive to document all safeties we had our first of the season when the Kansas City Chiefs visited the Pittsburgh Steelers and it demonstrates why special teams and the phases working together wins football games. The Steelers Jordan Berry sent a fifty-nine yard punt to the Chiefs’ one yard line, pinning them by the goal line that after an aggressive pass play on first down, led to Kareem Hunt being tackled in the end zone. Maybe a small part of me would have liked to see a quarterback get sacked but this is the essence of football, a game of territory where even if you don’t directly score, you created an opportunity that results in two points and you getting the ball back in good field position.

Speaking of sack, and the final thing I will round up this week. I think there’s been a lot of entertaining football so far this season, even if not all of the prime time games have been the ones to demonstrate this, but whilst we have fun offences and potentially good young quarterbacks to enthuse about, there’s also the familiar issues surrounding the rule tweaks. Despite the worry ahead of the season being around the lowering the head hitting rules, these haven’t been called that much or caused that many issues and the two bad quarterback hits I have seen have been in open play when the quarterback slides and the hit to Cam Newton just looks bad. The actual problem call has been the new landing on the quarterback rules. This essentially cost the Packers a game when Clay Matthews was called for roughing the passer despite making a pretty much textbook form tackle of Kirk Cousins. Now I get why after Aaron Rodgers’ injury last season, and given how much the league is hurt whenever one of their marquee quarterbacks get injured, that the league doesn’t want their quarterbacks being driven into the ground by three hundred pound defensive linemen but there’s only so much a defender can do and if we’re going to start penalising tackling as opposed to dangerous play then we are going to see ridiculous scorelines. They won’t change the rule now and I wonder if even the instructions to the refs will change given that I suspect what the league is worried about is keeping the quarterbacks on the field. I hope I’m wrong.

So on to the next week where we’ll get to see if the Browns can finally get that win having been competitive twice, if the remaining undefeated teams can remain so, and I can keep testing my search of pro-football-reference.com that should make sure I don’t miss any safeties this season.

Take a Breath Before You Panic

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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18-09-12 Lions

Image Credit: eu.freep.com

The week one games are in the book and so after this first flurry of games the natural next step is to react and thanks to a combination of modern media and the small number of games ever result is either a triumph or a disaster. So before we continue, remember to take a breath and not to read too much into the result for you team in their first game, unless you need to panic and given that all seven new head coaches lost this week perhaps you might.

Having seen both teams in the pre-season I wasn’t convinced by either the Bills or the Lions but both were on the wrong side of score lines over forty points. I can see how the Bills got themselves into the mess they are in, and they think they have their quarterback of the future so Josh Allen but given the moves they made to get him the young quarterback needs to work out. Poor Nathan Peterman didn’t stand much chance behind the Bills’ reworked offensive line . I’m not going to pretend that I’m a good enough judge of talent to say whether he does or doesn’t belong in the NFL, but he’s had two disastrous starts for the Bills now, and it throws the decision to trade away AJ McCarron into sharp relief as Allen is now starting next week despite not being ready four days ago. The Lions meanwhile managed to lose at home to a rookie quarterback in his first start on the road and this only furthers reinforces the poor impression I got from them in pre-season. It is going to take a number of wins to wipe the memory of that start from the fans who were in attendance.

The reason that they and the other teams who lost in week one might need to panic is that while roughly half of the teams that go 2-0 make the playoffs, only around ten percent of teams who start 0-2 make the playoffs. Now for some being competitive and winning some games (I’m looking at you Browns) would be an improvement in line with expectations as there are plenty of teams who see a return to competitiveness as a marked improvement. The Saints were not expected to lose to the Buccaneers, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick keeps playing like he did in the first game perhaps Jameis Winston won’t walk straight back into the starting role. The defence for the Saints no showed in the home opener against a divisional opponent, which is a real worry for a team that plays decidedly better in their dome so they will be looking to bounce back against the Browns on Sunday.

Now the Cleveland Browns reached peak Browns by avoiding losing their opening game in a tie and failing to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers despite generating six turnovers – plus Myles Garrett looked like a monster. It feels like there’s a lot more talent on this year’s roster but I think everyone is doubting whether the coaching staff can pull it together in Cleveland and stuff like this really doesn’t help.

Another team that will be ruing a missed opportunity is the Chicago Bears who had the Packers on the ropes in the first in Green Bay before Aaron Rodgers pulled off another miracle, firstly by getting back on the field having been carted off and then by leading a comeback from 20-0 down in the third quarter. The Bears will draw a little comfort from the fact that we all know Rodgers is, to quote Robert May, ‘…a f#*@ing dragon!’ but they got conservative in the second half on offence whilst the defence failed to cope when the Packers adjusted and got the ball out of Rodgers’ hands quickly. This was not helped by the lack of pre-season showing up for Khalil Mack who looked unstoppable early in the game but was on a rep count and couldn’t help late. The question for fans of the Bears is does the promise displayed develop as new head coach Matt Nagy gets used to calling plays for the entire game and how to maximise the offence, but that is a question we will only find out the answer to in the coming weeks.

It’s too early to draw too much from the Kansas City Chiefs win over the LA Chargers but they looked very promising on offence. Patrick Mahomes has a ridiculous arm and didn’t throw an interception although the play calling and skills players had a lot to do with the points scored and the LA Chargers would have been a lot closer if players would stop dropping passes from Philip Rivers. The Chargers are still finding ways to lose games and the number of fans at their ‘home’ games is still a worry, the new stadium that the Rams are building and that the Chargers will be sharing once its open could be very empty and dominated by away fans if the situation remains the same.

The Oakland Raiders failed to win and I will be keeping an eye on them, but the signs are not good for this season and the questions about the Mack trade will only get louder if he builds on the promise he showed in the Bears’ opener. Meanwhile Jerry Jones avoided the media after the Dallas Cowboys opening loss to the Carolina Panthers and without a quick improvement on offence.

Now a lot of teams are in a position to turn around their single loss and I certainly wouldn’t panic if I was a fan of say the Steelers (although the display by Ben Roethlisberger was concerning), but there will be fans all over the league who will be that extra bit nervous during the upcoming games and to them I say this, there is a long season up ahead and 0-2 doesn’t necessarily mean your team won’t make the playoff but if your team loses a second game, well at that point you can definitely panic!

Great Start To The Season… Except For Our Fantasy Team!

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

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Ok, it’s Tuesday which means it’s Blogging time for me! I’m just back from watching a boring England side in ‘the Other Football’ beat Switzerland in a boring friendly… such a comedown from a great weekend of NFL!

Where to start? Well, the Dolphins I suppose! Good win for the fins this week against a battered and bruised Tennessee Titans – this despite two weather related game breaks meaning the game which started at 6pm over here in England went on to finish just after 1:20am on Monday morning! It’s a good job my boss knows why I’m always knackered on Mondays during the season. On a serious note, I was impressed by Miami – we looked renewed which was nice, and special mentions have to go to Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake (who I can see running through some dirty great holes in defences this year), a debuting Minkah Fitzpatrick (who made some critical defensive stops) and Ryan Tannehill who looked fresh returning from Injury.

Speaking of which, there were a few QBs coming back this week. I got to see some of Deshaun Watson for the Texans and Andrew Luck for the Colts. It won’t be long before Watson is back to his best, but Andrew Luck is going to struggle if his line let him get hit as much as he did by the Bengals in the coming weeks.

Image Credit – nypost.com

Honourable QB mentions should also go to Aaron Rodgers, who lead his team to an incredible comeback victory even with an injured leg, after being down by more than 20 points, and Ryan Fitzpatrick who threw over 400 yards and got himself a couple of touchdowns in the process – hands up who had him in their fantasy team? …anyone?? If he carries on like that, Jamies Winston will struggle to get back in when his suspension is up.

The Browns did the most Brownsy thing they possibly could and when attempting a medium range kick to win their game with the Steelers in overtime, managed to get it blocked and come away with a tie. It means they definitely won’t go 0-16 this year but it would have been nice of them to get one in the W column in a divisional game week one. Le’veon Bell will have been a keen spectator of that game, having not travelled with Pittsburgh for this one due to his ongoing contractual hold-out. I can’t see him leaving the Steelers, but some of their key players will be knocking on management’s door this week trying to get a deal done and get him back in yellow and black.

Image Credit – CBS Sports

And my early pick for the Super Bowl, the Rams, managed a good win on Monday too. Not managed to watch that game yet but I’ll pick that up in the next few days. So, “how’s the odds chart looking Dan?” I hear you cry! Well, like this, I reply:

Odds are down to 10-1 after week one actually making them third favourites – level with the Eagles and behind only the Vikings and the Patriots. Not bad after one game!

The Wrong Football fantasy team didn’t manage to get off to a winning start unfortunately, beaten by 192.5 to 183.4. This disappoints me having gone unbeaten with the ‘Suh Tang Clan’ 2 years ago (I might have mentioned it once or twice on the pod…!!). I’ll be wheeling and dealing in the market this week as I was too late to pick up a good Running back off waivers and Lynch is questionable. The full team looks something like this:

Feedback welcomed, but I can’t promise to listen!!

Anyway, before I go this week, quick shout to Darren Butler (@darrenbutler87) who gave me a great little bit of trivia this week which I wanted to share with you…

“For three years between 1983 and 1986 the Heisman Trophy Winner was not drafted by an NFL Franchise, with all three opting to join the USFL spring series instead.”

Lovely little stat that! In the spirit of our trivia competition, if you’ve got a good bit of NFL trivia to share (useless or otherwise – the more ‘pub knowledge’ the better!) drop me a tweet @TWFDan and you may get a mention here next week!

That’s all for now. Until next time…

@TWFDan

Transitioning into the New Season

09 Sunday Sep 2018

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18-09-09 Wentz and Foles

Image Credit: sportingnews.com

So I thought I would take this last Sunday without coaching tape to talk about I would write a little about the last Hard Knocks episode and the first game of the season.

I mentioned last week that the timing of the last episode is always slightly off as the cuts, which are the big feature of the last show are problematic to watch as your intruding on very difficult time for the players involved and the tension is often already gone as the cuts are big news so you often already know who has and hasn’t made it. This is even more so here in the UK with our delayed showing so we couldn’t watch episode five until the day of the start of the season.

This week’s episode got to the game more quickly as the ending is focussed around the cuts, but it was interesting to see Rogan Broback go into the game, start tight and then settle in before throwing a sharp touchdown price. However, this year none of the bubble players that have been featured this season made the team with even Carl Nassib getting cut a day later after the Browns were down to fifty-three to faclilitate a roster move and unusually, he was the only player who got picked up by the time the episode was aired or as far as I can tell now. It has to be hard for Nate Orchard who had a pick six interception in the final game to not make the roster or get picked up. We saw Devon Cajuste working on his blocking and keep trying, but whilst he’s apparently had interest from teams, none of them have sought to pick up the converted tight end yet but he could get a look as injuries start to pile up as could Orchard.

We then moved from bottom of the roster moves to the excitement of the new season that didn’t quite take off on Thursday night as the Atlanta Falcons travelled to Philadelphia to face the Super Bowl champion Eagles. If there is a real worry for the NFL office from this game it was the number of penalties in this game and whilst it wasn’t full of leading with the head penalties there were twenty-six flags for a total of two hundred and thirty-six yards.

For the Falcons the frustration was that they moved the ball well and Julio Jones looked really good but they were flat bad in the red zone and how Jones is off the field as often as he seems to be close the goal line I do not know. At least make your opponent cover the most dangerous skills player you have! I was also a little worried by some of Matt Ryan’s throws and he did not live up to the contract he just signed. It’s absolutely not time to panic, if your home record is good you only have to win a few games on the road to get to the playoffs but the Falcons were right there and couldn’t win the game.

As for the Eagles, the defence is still based on a fearsome pass rush and looked good but the clamour for Carson Wentz to get back into the game will only rise after this performance by Nick Foles. However, the team got the win and I’d forgotten what an effect having Darren Sproles has on the offence. They showed flashes and perhaps Foles will always win games where he has a catch but the Eagles will be looking to improve next week.

The important thing in week one never mind the opening game is not to over react but let’s hope there are few less flags flying in the rest of the games as we get going with the rest of the week one.

AFC Preview

04 Tuesday Sep 2018

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18-09-04 AFC

With the new season only days away I thought I would take you through a whistle-stop tour of the league starting with an AFC preview and I’ll give the NFC teams their own post before the Philadelphia Eagle and Atlanta Falcons get things under way on Thursday.

I don’t particularly like making predictions as there are too many variables and injury luck is can be such a huge part of team success so I’ll be breaking the divisions up into favourites, competitive, and likely to struggle as I work my way round the division compass so without further ado let’s make a start on the .

AFC North

Much as it is painful for a Bengals fan to say it, the favourite to take the AFC North division is still the Pittsburgh Steelers. They may have questions at linebacker thanks to Ryan Shazier’s injury, but the defence still finished top ten last year by DVOA in and the options in their offence are still terrifying. Time is ticking for Ben Roethlisberger but as long as he doesn’t suffer a dramatic fall off then this is going to be one of the teams of the conference who should have their eyes on the Super Bowl.

The AFC North is always a tough division, and even when the Browns are struggling they are often a tough out, but not so much under Hue Jackson. However, with a defence that has looked good in pre-season and the additions of Jarvis Landy and Tyrod Taylor as well as new offensive co-ordinator Toddy Haley it at least feels like the infrastructure for success is more solid. In a position to let rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield develop and not rush him I think the Browns will be more competitive than last season, but whether their ill-discipline (they got penalised a lot in pre-season) will allow them to win games I don’t know. I think we’ll know a lot more about this team by the end of the first four games.

The Baltimore Ravens are another team who are perennially competitive but had to do it with defence and special teams last year. With a kicker like Justin Tucker you can mask a lot of deficiencies in offence but the thing the Ravens coaches might be most happy about having drafted Lamar Jackson this year is the fire it seems to have lit under long time quarterback Joe Flacco. He may also have been helped by better receiving options and being healthy in the offseason for the first time in two years but if the Ravens’ Super Bowl winning play caller can lead the offensive to a better ranking than twenty-first by DVOA the Ravens will be right in contention for the playoffs again.

I’ve written a fair amount about the Cincinnati Bengals this pre-season and it is telling that neither of the offensive tackles two years that they drafted to prepare for a transition of talent have worked out whilst Andrew Whitworth looked great for the LA Rams last year. With new playbooks on both sides of the ball there have been a lot of changes to coaching and the roster. Whilst the Bengals have another young team there seemed to be a lot to like and if the O-line gels, then Andy Dalton should have a much easier time finding his myriad of skill players. I’m not pencilling them into the playoffs, but I’m not ruling it out and I wasn’t sure that would be the case when it was announced the Marvin Lewis was coming back.

AFC East

Is this the year that the New England Patriots falter? For the first time Tom Brady was not ever present through the off-season, their first round offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn ruptured his Achillies after they let starting left tackle Nate Solder leave in free-agency, and this was a team that went to the Super Bowl with a defence ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA so they can ill afford an offensive wobble. I think we’re all at the point where we’ll believe Tom Brady is done when he has signed his retirement papers, but what will help them is that none of the rest of the division are exactly standing up as challengers at the moment and so the Patriots look to be favourites still. This could finally change though.

The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time in eighteen attempts last seasons, but they responded to this by cutting the quarterback that got them there, not signing the linebacker that led the league in tackles and trading their left tackle to the Bengals in the draft manoeuvres required to get their quarterback of the future. Have traded away AJ McCarron they have opted to go with rookie Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman as their QBs, but whilst Peterman has looked good in pre-season and Allen has flashed, the Bengals defensive line had a field day against Buffalo’s o-line and it could be a very long season for whoever starts. I was impressed with everything Sean McDermott did last season bar benching Tyrod Taylor but I don’t think this season’s roster is better than last years and I have a nasty feeling they will struggle for a lot of the season.

If you trade away your best offensive and defensive players for chemistry reasons, you had better have an awful lot of talent coming in and I’m not sure that Miami Dolphins do. I thought they had a good draft and I would say Adam Gase is a good coach but I’m not at all sure of the roster construction and this feels like the latest in a long series of make or break seasons for Ryan Tannehill. I believe that Gase can keep the locker room together and make them competitive but it would not surprise me if they fall into a difficult season. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong, if only to cheer Dan through the season.

Finally we have the New York Jets, and I though Todd Bowles did an excellent job of coaching with a lack of talent on the roster last season and not sure many other coaches would have got as many wins. The most ready of the rookie quarterbacks fell into their laps in the draft and Sam Darnold looked good enough in pre-season that the Jets traded Teddy Bridgewater to the New Orleans Saints. I think it will take another or season or two to turn things round and I don’t know if Bowles will get the chance to complete the job, but I can see the Jets equalling their record of last season. There will be ups and downs with a rookie quarterback but the real question for this season is have the Jets finally got a franchise QB. Everything else after that can wait.

AFC South

The Jacksonville Jaguars continued to build their defence, stuck with Blake Bortles and their big free agent signing was a offensive guard. I thought that Bortles might have learnt a thing or two in last season’s playoff run but with the exodus at receiver and the injury to Marqise Lee this team will be as reliant as ever on their defence and the run game. The good news is that the defence will be no less scary and they should rightly be considered the favourites for this division.

The Houston Texans may have only won four games last season, but they revealed they could have a bright future as long as the young quarterback Deshaun Watson can recover his blistering form from last season before his knee injury. With the defence hoping a number of players stay healthy, including JJ Watt this could be really good team even if the offensive line looks to be a big problem. There are a lot of ifs there so whilst the Texans will start out competitively, how long they will remain so is the big question.

The Tennessee Titans ground their way into the playoffs with a run first offence and a defence that ranked twenty-first in the league by DVOA. This was not enough to save Mike Mularkey his job and there rookie head coach Mike Vraebel is hoping that Matt LaFleur can revitalise the offence and fourth year quarterback Marcus Mariota. The coaches with links to Bill Belichick have not necessary flourished as head coaches and Vraebel has limited experience as the man with ultimate responsibility so I am very curious to see how he goes. The honest answer is I’m not sure so this is one of the teams we’ll need to follow closely through the start of the season.

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled mightily with Andrew Luck being out injured but this also laid bare the problems with the rest of the roster and whilst there are signs that things are improving in the second year of Chris Ballard’s rebuild, a lot will depend on Andrew Lucks surgically repaired and extensively rehabbed shoulder. The good news is that he’s back to starting but new head coach Frank Reich will be hoping that he can get enough from his franchise quarterback that the season can be a success, but I have a feeling that being competitive would qualify as just that and would be a good place to start.

AFC South

The Kansas City Chiefs won the division last year and I have too much faith in Andy Reid to see this team as anything other than competitive and I would place them as favourites to win the division. That is despite trading Alex Smith to Washington to promote Patrick Mahomes as the starter after a season where the young quarterback sat on the bench. Mahomes has the arms to make use of the myriad of skills players the Chiefs can use in their offence that has borrowed liberally from college, whilst their defence was only ranked thirtieth by DVOA last year when they won the division. It wouldn’t take much to improve that ranking and with the potential of their offence the Chiefs could be one of the most fun teams to watch this season.

The other potential favourite in this division could be the LA Chargers but it would require them to get out of their own way and they couldn’t quite manage that last season. The abiding image of Philip Rivers for me these days is a player somehow functioning as an effective quarterback despite minimal protection from his line. The defence was just outside of the top ten with a fearsome pass rush led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa and they should be competitive again this season. The problem is that they have a nasty habit of losing close games and their ‘home’ games in LA were frequently more like home games for the opposition thanks to fan turnout. I’d like to think they can improve but I’m not willing to just outright declare it, although I’d be very willing to be proved wrong again.

I’m not entirely sure where to begin with the currently Oakland soon to be Las Vegas Raiders. The big move of the off-season would have been luring Jon Gruden out of the commentary booth nine years after he last coached except they have just traded Khalil Mack, one of the best young defensive players in the league, to the Chicago Bears. The reasoning is that the Mack’s contract demands were just too big, and the Bears wasted no time in signing Mack to a six year deal with $90 million guaranteed days after Aaron Donald signed a contract with $87 million guaranteed. The difference between the three franchises is that the Rams still have a young quarterback on their rookie contract as does the Bears, whilst the Raiders have already signed Derek Carr to a five year extension. The issue is that Gruden has been out of the league for a while, even if he was staying plugged into the NFL through his media gig, and the defence his brother Jay Gruden [I appear to have gone made, too many ex-Bengal coordinators involved as it is in fact Paul Guenther who is the new defensive coordinator – Ed.] takes over was ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA with Khalil Mack. I’m really not sure what to expect out of the Raiders this year, and whilst I can see the salary cap argument to an extent (I don’t study it hard, maybe that’s a task for next off-season) the Mack trade amongst others does nothing to help the Raiders now and I think this club will be in for a very interesting time this year.

Last year’s AFC West strugglers the Denver Broncos will be hoping that the addition of Case Keenum at quarterback will be enough of an upgrade to the offence to give the still competitive if retooled defence a chance of winning games. In the one game I saw them this preseason the offensive line still looked to be a problem but after a good pre-season from Chad Kelly, the Paxton Lynch development plan has finally been shelved. It is way too soon to question a GM who has won a Super Bowl and given his history as franchise quarterback you would think that the job is John Elway’s as long as he wants it. However, whilst he’s made a number of sharp moves in free-agency, his record in the draft is a bit patchier and his choice of Vance Joseph as head coach didn’t exactly yield the early returns that Elway would have hoped for. Still, if either Keenum or Kelly can make the offence competitive then the Broncos will be a team no one will want to face, especially at home and that could be enough for them to be in the playoff race come December.

The NFL can be brutal!

03 Monday Sep 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

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I mean, the NFL really can be brutal! This time of year, we’re looking forward to the fresh start that comes with a new season, however on Saturday, just 5 days before the first ball is kicked, teams were busy shattering dreams while slimming down to a 53-man roster. And while all of the players know that’s what’s going to happen, I can’t imagine it makes it any easier for either side come cut-down day.

Hard Knocks has been around for a few years now, and off the back of that comes an increased level of understanding of what exactly goes down during the off-season, and a major part of its focus is on who makes the team and who doesn’t. Appreciating that there wouldn’t be much left to the series if they didn’t go so in depth on this element, the final episode of each season is still a tough watch. I’m not quite sure I’d like to find my career (and potentially financial well-being) forming part of a soap opera.

Clearly there’s two sides to this. People like Eric Kush (Bears Centre) who was picked up by Chicago after being cut publicly cut by the Rams on Hard Knocks, will argue that it doesn’t do your chances any harm to catch someone’s eye when the eyes of the media have spent a month and a half following you around.

Image Credit – USA Today

But this year (**Spoiler Alert, People!!**), people like the extremely likeable Devon Cajuste will be hoping to pick up a team quickly. And even though I couldn’t stand how fourth string QB Brogan Roback came across, it’s not going to be a nice watch when this week’s Hard Knocks lands. Seemingly, not many are safe either – not even 2016 first round draft pick QB Paxton Lynch could escape the cut from Denver. 2016 was a tough year to go into the league as a QB as there was a strong draft class that year (Goff, Wentz, Prescott… Hackenberg?!) but for a first rounder who Denver put a lot of hope on at the time to be gone already seems harsh to me, especially when the likes of Wentz and Goff were given a year or so to ‘bed in’.

Even for the lucky ones though, the average career in the NFL is just 3.3 years (according to Statista.com) – I don’t know about you, but if I’d dreamed of doing something as a career my whole life and invested that much time, effort, blood, sweat and tears into making it happen, I’d really hope it lasted a bit longer than 3.3 years when I finally got there… perhaps that’s why I buy Office Supplies for a living and don’t play professional sport [I’m not sure that’s the only reason – Ed.]. I guess that’s why it’s so important for those who do get there to be the best they can on every down… and keep saving their money for retirement!

This may be my last blog before the season starts so I should probably cover off a few things while I’m here! Firstly, here’s a look at the Rams ‘odds to cash out’ chart as it stands:

The Wrong Football are also taking part in a charity fantasy football league in aid of 4Louis, a charity whose amazing work provides memory boxes to hospitals in the U.K. in aid of bereaved parents who have lost a child through stillbirth or neonatal death. It’s a great charity and while I’ll share more about the team when the draft (currently moving at the speed of global warming) is complete, but in the meantime, go to 4Louis.co.uk for more information, and if you would like to donate, head over to https://www.justgiving.com/4louis – a donation of just £30 allows them to provide a family with one of their memory boxes.

Happy Week One everyone!!

@TWFDan

Making Sense of the Chaos

02 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by in Hard Knocks, Pre-Season

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18-09-01 Khalil Mack

Image Credit: nypost.com

The final weekend before the regular season is one of the biggest of the NFL calendar with all thirty-two teams cutting their rosters to 53 on Saturday. On Sunday they can place players on injured reserve with the possibility of bringing players back later in the season and shuffle the bottom of their roster as they seek to address weaknesses from a player pool of over a thousand that have just been cut from all teams. Meanwhile at the top of rosters since I last wrote we’ve seen new contracts for Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Donald whilst the currently of Oakland Raiders traded away Khalil Mack, one of the best young defensive players in the league to the Chicago Bears. That’s as good a player that has been traded away as I can remember and the Raiders also traded to get AJ McCarron from the Buffalo Bills despite his underwhelming pre-season and shoulder injury. Frankly, things seem a little odd for the silver and black right now.

Meanwhile, things took a strange turn for the Cleveland Browns, especially for those of us in the UK who saw Michael Kendricks on Hard Knocks giving the scouting info on the Philadelphia Eagles offence ahead of their game with them, only to then find out that Kendicks had been released by the Browns after he was charged for insider trading. It appears that the Browns were aware of the situation that occurred back in 2014 but they had been told that Kendricks had cooperated with investigators as a victim and the change in information prompted them to release the Super Bowl winner.

Getting back to Hard Knocks episode four we had the rookie show and the clip of Kendricks breaking down his former team but it was a more restrained episode this week. A game that finished 5-0 will be part of it, but we did get a more detailed look into Tyrod Taylor’s exit from the game with a dislocated finger, the x-ray, and then him getting taped up and heading back into the game. The cameras didn’t follow Taylor into the medical tent or x-ray room but we heard the pain and saw him catch a ball in the locker room before he declared himself fine and headed off to get back into the game. There was an interview with Josh Gordon before the game and we saw him passing out gloves to a pair of children screaming for him, but with him not cleared to participate the nearest we got to Gordon playing football was him going through the new playbook and saying he knew the plays. Given that Todd Haley has been installing a new offence this offseason that was a little curious.

We know that for a lot of young NFL players are helped by the veterans, but it was interesting to see Devon Cajuste working extensively with a fellow tight end on his blocking, but much like when we saw Antonio Calloway watching film with Jarvis Landy, you wonder where the position coaches are as surely they should be making sure the players are working on the techniques the coaching staff wants the players to be using.

The final episode of Hard Knocks will focus on the Brown’s game against the Detroit Lions and the cuts of the fringe players that has already happened as I write this but several of them could have been picked up for practice squad or other teams by the time the episode airs. This is one of the most awkward parts of Hard Knocks being shown a couple of days later in the UK as if you don’t want spoilers you have to be careful about the NFL media you consume but the fifth and final episode really suffers as it airs on the same day the season starts, four days after cuts weekend and a week since the last games of the pre-season.

In their game against the Lions Devon Cajuste caught a twenty-four yard catch at the start of the game and Nate Orchard intercepted the ball and ran it back for a touchdown. Fans of the Browns will already know if this was enough for them to make the team or not, but I’ll let you find out for yourself or keep the suspense until the last episode. It was interesting to see Brogan Roback get some extended play time but early on whilst his demonstrated the strength of arm, he kept trying to force long passes and more than once he looked distinctively frantic. He did eventually settle down and showed some touch on a couple of completions before firing in a touchdown pass to Blake Jackson.

Overall the Browns ran away with this game but both sides of the ball fell away as the game progressed and we slipped further down the roster. There is a lot of positivity floating round the Browns at the moment but they were again beset by penalties and you have to wonder how much this is going to hurt them in the season. We’ve seen Hue Jackson bemoaning the penalties throughout the series but things are not changing and you can’t turn this round simply by telling players something they already should know. This is about discipline and what the coaches demand and what they encourage through tolerating on the practice field, a team plays like how they practice, and this is something that could very easily cost them games this season.

There is one episode of Hard Knocks left and the Browns will already be preparing for their opening game but we will soon see if Hue Jackson has turned things round or this will be his last season as head coach of the Browns.