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2020 Week Twelve Picks

29 Sunday Nov 2020

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In keeping with my last couple of days in the house, my Thanksgiving picks were a sodden mess of leaking points undermining my attempts to catch up with Dan as he extended his lead to double digits. At this point I think I am just waiting for the end of the season to put me out of my misery but let us see if I can rescue something out of the week.

Early Games:

I think there are two stand out games in the early slate, although they are for slightly different reasons.

The first is the Tennessee Titans return visit to play the Indianapolis Colts to see if they can avenge their loss from week ten. The Colts must be taken seriously, yet the loss of DeForest Buckner will be a blow to a top five defense by DVOA, but they looked pretty good against the Packers last week. Dan and I were both discussing how we were struggling to pick the Titans, but head coach Mike Vrabel seems to have a real feel for game management and working clever little advantages, and although the offence has sputtered a little in recent weeks, we are getting into the time of year where Derrick Henry seem to keep getting stronger. I think this should be a competitive game and I am determined not to miss watching the Colts again.

The other game might not be quite the same contest, but the chance to watch Justin Herbert is not one to miss and with the Buffalo Bills coming off a bye their pass first offence should be raring to go. I might be wrong, but I think this is game is likely to be a high scoring watch that should be a lot of fun, even if I think that ultimately the Chargers will fall short on the road.

What else to watch:

  • The Las Vegas Raiders will be looking to bounce back after a last drive loss to the Chiefs and with Julio Jones battling to get fit for Sunday, I think this could well be a get right game for the Raiders as Matt Ryan looks like a very different quarterback without Jones.
  • I now have a certain fascination in what Brandon Allen can do with the Bengals offence, but given what happened when Burrow went down I am not exactly excited. I still like the direction that the Giants are heading, and although their schedule may preclude actually winning the division, I can see them winning this game easily, but would love to be proved wrong.
  • The Jaguars are moving on from Jake Luton after he threw four interceptions against the Steelers last week, but it is Mike Glennon who gets the start as Gardner Minshew II still works his way back from injury. Frankly, given recent results for the Jaguars, I have a feeling that this won’t matter a whole lot, and the real interest in this game is what the Browns offence does now that they’re not playing in terrible weather and can throw the ball. I’m not expecting fifty drop backs like the Bengals have been trying, but it will be interesting to see how the offence runs without Odell Beckham now that throwing is actually an option.
  • The Miami Dolphins ran into a defensive coach who had a game plan for Tua Tagovailoa and now that tape exists the Dolphins will have to work out how to counter it. Still, that might not be a problem this week with Tagovailoa struggling with a thumb injury so currently Ryan Fitzpatrick is looking more likely to get a start. I’m not sure either QB will have to do too much to beat the Jets given how well in the other two other phases of the game the Dolphins are playing.
  • I’m really not sure what to make of either team in the matchup of the Carolina Panthers at the Minnesota Vikings. Whilst I like the direction the Panthers franchise is heading, their defense is unlikely to pitch another shut out and they must develop before they are going to truly compete. The Viking meanwhile lost to the Cowboys last week despite Dalvin Cook generating plenty of yards, as did Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson in the passing game. Either the Vikings recovery was over blown or last week was a blip and this game will shed some light on that, although Adam Thielen being out with Covid-19 will muddy matters. To be honest, I’m not that convinced by either side going into this one.
  • It is truly weird to see the New England Patriots getting points at home, but that is where we are with them hosting the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have extra time to recover from their loss last week, and have a chance to bounce back against the New England Patriots, but this is not the easiest of road trips and whilst the Cardinals are another team where I like where they are headed, I don’t exactly trust them.

Raiders @ Falcons (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chargers @ Bills (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Giants @ Bengals (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Browns @ Jaguars (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Titans @ Colts (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Dolphins @ Jets (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Panthers @ Vikings (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Cardinals @ Patriots (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Late Games:

The game that leaps of the page out of the late games is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Bucs have not looked right for a couple of weeks now and whilst I can see Tom Brady and the Bucs offence having some success against the Chiefs defense, they have not all been on the same page recently and I find it hard to believe that they can keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs explosive offence. It is not impossible given the talent the Bucs have, but even laying points on the road I like the Chiefs in this one.

The breaking new on Saturday was that thanks to close contacts after Jeff Driskel tested positive for Covid-19 the Broncos have no quarterback available to them when hosting the New Orleans Saints. The Broncos receiver Kendall Hinton is going to play QB and so this game is likely to be a curiosity if nothing else. I already thought that the match up of the Denver Broncos offence going against the New Orleans Saints’ offence with Taysom Hill as the quarterback was going to be the matchup of the game. With their win last week Sean Payton demonstrated that Hill was a viable option to win a game, but the jury is out on whether he can maintain this for enough weeks that Drew Brees can get healthy and compete in the play-offs. I’m not sure about watching the whole game, but I am definitely interested in the coaching tape of the Saint’s offence this week.

Finally, a divisional game between the San Francisco 49ers and LA Rams will always have some interest thanks to the offensive schemes of the two head coaches, but even getting some players back a win feels like a tough ask for the 49ers and the Rams should be looking to apply pressure on the Seahawks with a win in this game.

Saints @ Broncos (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

49ers @ Rams (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Packers (-8.5)

This line feels high to me because the Chicago Bears defense is still ranked fourth by DVOA, but their offence is ranked twenty-ninth for a reason and it feels like they will need to address quarterback in the off-season as neither of their options has exactly convinced this year. The Packers will still be smarting from their loss to the Colts last week, and they have had some concerning losses this season, but they are a good team and I would expect them to win this one. If you want to be really simplistic a matchup of Aaron Rodgers versus Mitchell Trubisky is not much of a contest.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Seahawks @ Eagles (+5.5)

I am all for letting Russell Wilson play like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but it was good to see the Seahawks run the ball more last week and get some support from the defense as they beat the Cardinals. I really hope that Pete Carroll doesn’t revert to type and get the run-pass balance too far towards running the ball as has been his desire in previous seasons, but a balanced attack should help this Seahawks win. I would love to say that the Eagles can spring a surprise, and you can’t entirely rule it out, but it seems unlikely for a team who appear to have broken their quarterback and look a shadow of the team who a Super Bowl only a few seasons ago.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Maybe Night Football

Ravens @ Steelers (-3.5)

The poor Pittsburgh Steelers have again had their schedule messed around by an opponent struggling with Covid-19 cases, and there are some real questions about their game against the Baltimore Ravens getting played on Tuesday. It seems like the Ravens have had player to player transmission given they are up to nineteen positive cases, and with them not even able to get into the facility you have to wonder if this game will get played, never mind whether the Ravens can make it competitive. The Ravens were already struggling this season, and this can’t help, whilst the Steelers have managed to overcome every obstacle put in their path but I’m really not sure how the NFL is going to play this one. We can only wait and see, but I think there is only one way we can pick this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Grateful for What You can Rely On

25 Wednesday Nov 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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It feels like 2020 as a year has emphasised how important it is to be able to rely on different parts of our lives, and I’m sure that those working in the NFL feel no different, so as we approach the US holiday of Thanksgiving it feels more important than ever to think about the things we are grateful for in our lives.

I have been enjoying recording a podcast again, even if we have been a little more sporadic than we would have liked coming into the season, but thankfully the missed weeks were not for any serious reasons. I have had enough of those through the year and as odd as it still is to be missing part of the team I am used to have working on this site, it has been so good to speak to my friend Dan nearly every week, both on the pod and around recording. The dynasty league is also getting to the business end of the season, and the teams’ records are closing nicely to keep things competitive to the end. I’m grateful for a relatively smooth-running league given it is my first season as a commissioner and the disruption that Covid-19 threatened early in the season.

What I Saw

The first of the week eleven games saw the Seattle Seahawks tweak some of their game plan as they hosted the Arizona Cardinals in a divisional game, that the Seahawks ultimately won 28-12. Part of the Seahawks plan was to re-balance the offence with the return of running back Carlos Hyde from injury allowing Russell Wilson to make a more reasonable twenty-eight pass attempts as opposed to the fifty he had when these teams faced each other earlier in the season. The Seahawks’ defence also seemed to have a better plan for containing the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, with the Cardinals quarterback only rushing for fifteen yards in this game. I’m not sure that the addition of Carlos Dunlap was the entire answer, but with three QB hits and two sacks it certainly helped, although I suspect it will always be odd for me to watch the long time Bengal play in a number forty-three jersey after his decade in orange and black wearing ninety-six. The NFC West continues to be fearsomely competitive, and I think the Seahawks could well be mounting another run on the play-offs. I’m not panicking about the Cardinals as their destiny is still in their hands, but playing the Rams twice will be the very opposite of facing the NFC East teams still on their schedule.

Moving on to Sunday and the early game I watched was the heart-breaking loss of the Cincinnati Bengals to the Washington Football Team. It was horrible to watch for obvious injury related reasons, but the first half was frustrating as the Bengals generated plenty of yardage but could not score points and so only took a 9-7 lead into half time. It was painfully obvious just how many offensive line problems Joe Burrow was covering up by getting the ball out as the Bengals just couldn’t move the ball without him. My resolve to watch every snap is going to be tested over the next six games as I’m really not sure what there is to be taken from these games, and I am not at all convinced by this coaching staff. As for the Football Team, they did what they needed to win in the second half, and it is still a source of joy to see Alex Smith back on the field. I really don’t want to call who will emerge from the NFC East to host a play-off game, but you cannot count anyone out of it now all four teams have three wins, so it seems there could be many twists and turns to come.

The last Sunday game I watched was the Las Vegas Raiders hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, who went into the game coming of their bye, a situation that Andy Reid’s teams were 18-3 in before Sunday and now stand at 19-3. It was a back and forth game with the Raiders all the way through, but Patrick Mahomes is just behind the tax man and death for inevitability, and led the Chiefs to their final touchdown score with a pass to Travis Kelce to put the game away 35-31 with twenty-seconds on the clock. This drive followed on from Derek Carr giving the Raiders the lead a little over a minute earlier with his own touchdown drive that ended with a pass to a tight-end. The Raiders are a serious team this season, whose defence has risen to the lofty heights of a twenty-fourth ranking by DVOA, and whilst it still looks like the Cheifs and the Steelers are the best of the AFC if not the NFL, I am sure no one would look forward to facing the Raiders with the way they are playing at the moment.

The final game I saw was the Monday night contest between the LA Rams visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneer, which was another back an forth game that saw both teams trade score, but the Bucs only took the lead once and were eventually defeated 27-24. This game did not go how I was expecting, and as much as Tom Brady struggled again and threw a couple of bad interceptions, it was the fact that the Buccaneers could not disrupt Jared Goff and the Rams offence even with veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth missing through injury. A couple of weeks ago it felt like the Buccaneers were shaping into one of the best teams in the NFL, but they seem to have fallen back in the last few weeks. This dip does seem to coincide with the signing of Antonio Brown but it might not be that, and those of us outside the franchise can’t truly know. I am still inclined to think this is the growing pains of a team still assimilating a lot of new players without a proper off-season programme, but they are running out of weeks to get everyone on the same page ahead of the play-offs. There should still be time, but I do not feel as confident that they will pull this off as I did only a couple of weeks ago. The Rams meanwhile continue to compete and whilst there are going to be questions regarding Jared Goff in the big game until he repeatedly proves people wrong, he still does enough to win more often than not and has already played in one Super Bowl for Rams. I am not sure he can live up to his contract, but I think the criticism of him often goes too far the other way and I expect the Rams to be there or there abouts come the sharp end of the season.

What I Heard

There has been a lot of talk about the Joe Burrow injury, with lots of people pointing out how often he had been hit this season and everyone agreeing what a blow it was. As a fan the tweet is still pretty heart breaking, even with the positive attitude:

I’ve heard positive things from medical commentators that he should come back as good next season, and I just hope the Bengals have an improved situation for him to work with.

Still, hearing Alex Smith on Peter King’s podcast was an even greater comeback and as much as the loss was painful, there’s not another quarterback I’d rather lose to than Smith after all he went through to get back on the field.

It’s a timely reminder of the lengths these highly talented athletes go through to have a career and the risks they are taking even before you take Covid-19 into account.

What I Think

The fates appear to have been listening to Dan and mine’s conversation on Tuesday regarding Covid-19 and the NFL’s commitment to getting the season done as demonstrated by its upping of all teams to the intensive protocol. We mentioned the Raiders issues last week that still saw them play the Chiefs this Sunday, and mentioned that the Ravens were already operating virtually after some positive tests.

In a move that I think Dan is taking as a deliberate pre-empting of the podcast release tomorrow, the Baltimore Ravens game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh has been put back to Sunday. In the context of how the protocols are running it makes perfect sense as this gives the Ravens enough days that they can get five clear days of tests for those close contacts to the positive tests, and as long they don’t get an escalating situation that we’ve not seen since the Titans outbreak earlier in the season, then it seems likely the game will take place on Sunday.

I really wasn’t sure when the season started whether that the NFL was going to get to the end of the season, and I certainly expected them to have to run late, but in fairness the league and franchises (including all players and staff) are currently on schedule with no lost of games yet, and there are contingencies if the worsening situation should affect teams and the schedule more dramatically. The real world test of all of this is continuing to escalate, but on then league’s own terms it is a case of so far so good.

What I Know

If the trues wisdom is knowing that you know nothing, then the 2020 season has been a very apt demonstration of it.

I feel like you can trust perhaps two and a half teams to win regularly at the moment, and then there is a large number of teams that win or lose games when you are least expecting it. Let’s not even start on the mess that is the NFC East where all four teams have a riotous three wins and a shot at the play-offs.

There’s always a large element of randomness in the short NFL season, but that has never been clearer than in this Covid affected season with its absence of proper off-season, expanded practice squads,  more relaxed IR rules, and varying Covid-19 protocols. All that said, whoever does eventually win the Super Bowl, if and when it has been played, will have truly earned a championship.

What I Hope

This week I hope to be proved wrong, and that the Bengals give us something to enjoy. I’ll take Bandon Allen starting and helping this team develop in Burrow’s absence.

Of course I will be hoping for a full and swift recovery for Burrow as well, but I can’t write that every in post from now until next season so let’s just take it as read.

Get well Joe.

As for the rest of you, look at the things you are grateful and tell the people responsible thank you. I think we could all stand to hear that at the moment.

2020 Week Eleven Picks

22 Sunday Nov 2020

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After a pretty disastrous week ten for picks it is kind of appropriate that I got week eleven off to a losing start, but I suppose I had better start from the beginning.

The last week was pretty rubbish for me given that I was ill for a lot of it, but let’s hope that’s the last week of the season that my routine is affected by illness. I fell another four games back from Dan and so whilst I managed to keep his lead down to single digits, it really does feel like he is destined to take over from his dad as picks champion, which somehow feels appropriate. He has even scored more points than my value tracking numbers, although because there isn’t always a line advantage his winning percentage is over ten points lower, but I am no where near 50-50 this season so I am clearly going to have to re-work things in the off-season.

However, having watched the Seahawks stomp over the pair of us backing the Cardinals on Thursday night, it’s time to swing through the survivor competition and get into the rest of the week eleven slate of games.

Gee:Week 10:  4 – 10Overall:  69 – 79
Dan:Week 10:  8 – 6Overall:  78 – 70

Survivor Competition

Through ten weeks Dan and I are a pretty respectable eight and seven points respectively. Dan’s confidence paid off last week as he took the Vikings over the Bears whilst my play against the Texans with the Browns worked out for me. Although the Jets are back in play this week, neither Dan or I are trusting enough of the Chargers to risk them as our pick and so while Dan is demonstrating confidence in the Patriots recent run of wins by backing them over the Texans, I am working my way up the list of losing teams and settling on the Vikings going against the Cowboys. I am a little concerned that Jerry’s team are coming off a bye and are getting Andy Dalton back from his concussion/Covid-19 nightmare, but there are fifteen places between them in the overall DVOA rankings and I like how the Vikings have been playing in recent weeks.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 8

Week 11 Selection:

Gee:    Vikings
Dan:    Patriots

Early Games:

I can find reasons to pretty much watch any NFL game, but it does feel like this week the exciting contests are a little thinner on the ground and somewhat weighted to the later part of the slate and Monday.

The first of the early games to really catch the eye is the Tennessee Titans travelling to face the Baltimore Ravens, but that is as much because of what it will tell us about the teams than conviction in the inherent quality of the contest. The Titans are a perfectly respectable 6-3, but the concern will be that they have slipped to that record after a 5-0 start and have lost three of their last four games. The defence is not good and the kicking game has been a real Achilles’ heel and whilst the big names have been performing on offence, losses to the Colts and the Steelers will be concerning as they came at home whilst having already lost to the Bengals on the road, the Ravens will prove a stern test. The Ravens are a matching 6-3, but whilst they have another top ten defense and are second in the league in special teams by DVOA, the offence is ranked in the twenties and is definitely struggling after they set the league alight last season. The interesting commentary I have heard over this is that for all the questions about Lamar Jackson throwing the ball this season, he is near the top of the league when throwing on first down, the problem with their run heavy attack is that the Ravens just don’t do this a lot. If the Ravens can figure out their pass-run balance on first down, and they are known as one of the more analytically minded teams, then they could truly terrify, but as I have said all season, they won’t really scare opponents until they can demonstrate the ability to come back from a big deficit. I think they are unlikely to face that problem in this game though, and think they are likely to win a physical game although that line does look generous to me.

The other game I am interested in is the New Orleans Saints hosting the resurgent Atlanta Falcons. The Saints have looked a lot better in the last couple of weeks, but they are obviously going to be a different team whilst Drew Brees recovers from his collapsed lung and broken ribs. The Saints demonstrated they could win consistently without Brees for multiple weeks last year, but Teddy Bridgewater is now starting for the Panthers and it is interesting that at the time of writing the starter is rumoured to by Taysom Hill and not Jameis Winston. Regardless the Saints will be without Brees for at least three weeks as he’s been placed on IR and they start this run against a rested Falcons team who have won three of their last four games. If the Falcons continue to win at this rate it could make how to proceed in the off-season a tricky question, but this is their first real test since their mini turnaround given that it consisted of beating a Vikings team without Dalvin Cook, then facing the Lions, Panthers and Broncos. I think I like the Saints to win out given their experience and defense, but I am not exactly sure about it and the line seems high to me.

From the rest:

  • The Bengals are a two-win football team for a reason, and after a really great win against the Titans they were battered by the Steelers last week. This is a very winnable game, but the experience of Alex Smith worries me, even if it is amazing to see him come back from the injuries he had to start in the league once more. If the Bengals don’t win this one though, you will likely find my querying the directions of the franchise under Zac Taylor in next week’s podcast.
  • The Eagles still stand atop the NFC East despite their loss against the Giants last week, but they were meant to come back stronger from the bye not lose another game and this is a tough match up as they travel to Cleveland to face a Browns team with twice as many wins. The Eagles are going to have to really improve to compete in this one and if they don’t soon then a very winnable division is going to slip through their fingers. It is a sign of how far the Browns have progressed this season that there’s not a lot to say this week and we are not focused on Odell Beckham’s injury.
  • The story breaking about last season’s Lions having a party at the end of the season because they would be free of Matt Patricia is not a ringing endorsement of him as a head coach, and having just finished a biography about Bill Belichick for all his testy relationship with the media, his players like and respect him and he wins, something Patricia with a 13-27 record has failed to consistently do. Having beat Washington by three points last week the struggling Panthers provide another opportunity to pad the win column, but it still feels like the Lions are a franchise marking time until off-season changes.
  • With two consecutive wins the Patriots have dragged themselves back into contention and are only a win away from get back to even wins and losses, which they really should get this week against a Texans team who can’t really compete now that Deshaun Watson no longer has DeAndre Hopkins to throw to. The slow rebuild the Texans are going to need over the coming seasons will stand testament to how GM Bill O’Brien let down head coach Bill O’Brien.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers unbeaten streak was never in doubt against the Bengals last week, and I doubt they will struggle to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville, but it will be worth keeping an eye on this game just in case the Steelers have one eye on their week twelve Thanksgiving meeting with the Ravens.

Falcons @ Saints (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bengals @ Washington (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Lions @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Titans @ Ravens (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Patriots @ Texans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Steelers @ Jaguars (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Late Games:

I think there is a singular stand out game in the late slot, which is the Green Bay Packers taking their 7-2 record to Indianapolis and a Colts team who have won consistently but haven’t quite convinced yet. This should be a really interesting contest when the Packers have the ball as it will see Aaron Rodgers running Matt LaFleur’s offence against a Colts defense who are currently ranked top five by DVOA, but it will likely be determined by how well a fading Philip Rivers can operate a Colts offence that hasn’t quite found its feet this season against a Packers defense that has so far done enough to win games thanks to their offence being second only to the Chiefs by DVOA. I am really looking forward to this one.

From the rest:

  • It is a testament of how things are coming together for the Dolphins that this looks like a straightforward game for them given that the Broncos are struggling to do anything consistently and Drew Lock has failed to prove himself the answer at quarterback despite the promise he had shown coming into the season.
  • The team without a win meets the team who seem to specialise in close losses, and something has to give. It is not exactly a surprise that the LA Chargers are favourites, but the Jets could be more competitive than this line suggests coming off a bye
  • The Cowboys will be hoping that the return of Andy Dalton gives them a boost as they also come off the bye, but the Vikings have looked a different team since getting Dalvin Cook back and will have an eye on a run to the play-offs in the final seven games of the season. However, with games on the road against the Buccaneers and Saints to come, they can’t afford any slip ups, including dropping a game against the struggling Cowboys.

Dolphins @ Broncos (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Jets @ Chargers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Cowboys @ Vikings (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Packers @ Colts (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Raiders (+6.5)

This tasty looking Sunday night game feature a divisional matchup where the Chiefs will be looking to revenge their single loss of the season to the Las Vegas Raiders, which is the only game where Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception. The Raiders continue to struggle with Covid-19 protocols as one of the most heavily fined teams in the league had over half of their defensive starters put on the Covid-19 list this week due to close contact to a person with a positive test. As of Saturday there had been no further positive tests so if that holds they should get them all back for this game, but they have not been in the facility whilst the Chiefs are coming off a bye and Andy Reid has an 18-3 record after the bye so I have a feeling I know which way this contest will go. The Raiders will be hoping to confound this record but have not exactly had the ideal preparation to do so.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This should be a really good game as the LA Rams have been compeititve in pretty much every game this season and have a top ten offence and defence. The issue could be that Jared Goff is a quarterback who tends to either look really good or confused, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their best defence by DVOA absolutely have the capacity to take Goff out of his game. The additional problem for the Rams is losing Andrew Whitworth at left tackle to a knee injury against the Seahawks last wee as even at 39 Whitworth was playing great football and he will be a big miss. The Bucs have only three losses this season, two against a Saints team that seem to have their number and to a Bears team that the Bucs should have beaten on a Thursday night if it was not for the number of penalties they gave away. The unsurprising bad news stories that follow the unstable Antonio Brown hit this week, demonstrating the dangers of signing him but for now the Bucs are coming off a big win against the Panthers and will be looking to prove their status against the Rams and Chiefs ahead of their week thirteen bye. I would not like to bet against the Bucs winning this week, but the line did give me pause picking the game, but as much as I rate Sean McVay as an offensive mind, the known issues with Goff against good defences would already worry me before he lost his left tackle.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Ten Picks

15 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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The split of this Sunday’s games is a little more even this week because of the Masters golf tournament so we actually have more late games than early ones. I felt happy with my Thursday night pick up until half time, but the Titans demonstrated why all three phases of the game are important and I should remember that lines which cross key numbers or in that game’s case, go from giving to getting points mean it is a bad plan to stick with the giving number. Luckily Dan thought as I did so I only dropped a game back from being evens, but it is another thing to remember as we run through the week ten games.

Early Games:

I think there are two games that stand out in the early slate, and Dan has already commented on the podcast about my interest in one of these games so if you can’t hear his disappointment from reading my words, have have a listen here.

I think the obvious big game is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who will be desperate to get right after their horrible loss to the Saints last week. The Bucs travel to Carolina to take on their second divisional opponent in a row and a Panthers team who may only have a 3-6 record but are not an easy team to face even if they have lost their last four games. The Panthers pushed the Chiefs hard last week and only lost by a field goal to the Saints in week seven so I can see them putting up a credible effort against the Buccaneers. However, two of the Bucs’ three losses this season are against the Saints whose coaching staff seem to have the number of both the Bucs offence and defense so whilst I like what Matt Rhule and his staff are building in Carolina, the Bucs are still ranked second overall by DVOA so I like them to win this game, but I’m not so sure about them covering a five and half point line.

The other game of interest to me is the Philadelphia Eagles travelling to face the New York Giants, that is a divisional matchup from the NFC East – the division so bad that all four teams have losing records. I actually like some of what Joe Judge has been building with the Giants and picked them to beat the Washington Football Team last week, but the Eagles are coming off a bye and will be hoping that some rest and returning players enables them to push on in the second half of the season and win the division. I think the Eagles are still the team to beat, but they have to persuade Carson Wentz that throwing away the ball if the pass is not there is an okay thing to do, and get some kind of consistency from the offences. The Eagles still have a good pass rush, but they have not been a good football team this season, which makes the divisional matchups even more important. The Giants own defensive line has been doing some interesting things, but I think they are likely to fall short in this game, If the Giants could get the win they would suddenly be in a wide open race for the division, but I really don’t know what we should expect. It might not be the prettiest game to watch, but I think there is a certain fascination in this one and it might well make it on my watch list for week ten.

Points from the rest:

  • If the Browns are to continue their push for the play-offs then they need to beat a 2-6 Houston Texans team who interestingly are ranked eighteenth by DVOA. With Baker Mayfield back from the Covid-19 list as the Browns come back from the bye they should do so and with the Browns looking like a competently ran franchise I like them to do just that, even if the line does make me nervous.
  • The Washington Football Team visiting the Detroit Lions feels like a game for the die hards only. It was always going to be a big job to turn the Football Team round, whilst the Lions look like a team who are going to fire their head coach after three years.
  • The Green Bay Packers are laying a huge number of points in this game because the Jaguars are bad. That said, rookie quarterback Jake Luton did a couple of nice things in his debut last week so the line might be in danger but I very much doubt the result is.

Texans @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Washington @ Lions (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Jaguars @ Packers (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Eagles @ Giants (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Buccaneers @ Panthers (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Late Games:

I can make an argument for watching all six of the late game but I’ll stick to writing up a couple of them so this post doesn’t get out of hand.

The Buffalo Bills beat the Seahawks last week and take their 7-2 record on the road to face another NFC West team in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are a very respectable 5-3 but if you look at their wins, the only win against a team with a current winning record was against the Seahawks. The Cardinals are actually ranked two places better overall than the Bills and are in a tougher division, but with the Cardinals having feasted against NFC East teams and the Jets I think the Bills are a more battle tested group and I like the Bills getting points.

One of the matchups of the week is the NFC West divisional game between the LA Rams and the visiting Seattle Seahawks. I have a feeling this will be an entertaining game as the Seahawks pass defense is struggling and with a sluggish pass-rush you would think that Jared Goff will be able to make the Rams’ offence look like its best self. That might not be enough to get a win against the Seahawks, but I think it should be a highly entertaining game and certainly not one to be missed.

Points from the rest:

  • The Las Vegas Raiders host a Denver Broncos team who seem to be kings of the comeback but can’t put a complete game together and so I fancy the Raiders to get the win, although I’m really not sure about covering the line.
  • The Miami Dolphins host the LA Chargers in a showcase of two rookie quarterbacks exciting their fan bases. The Dolphins’ players who were put on the Covid-19 list is a concern for this game, but at this point I will believe the Chargers will win consistently only when they prove it, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get a third win this week.
  • I don’t know if the Cincinnati Bengals visit to Pittsburgh will live up to it’s hard hitting reputation, but I would like Joe Burrow to at least look good against the Steelers, a team that has beaten the Bengal in eleven of their last twelve contests
  • The 49ers visit to the New Orleans Saints should be a marquee matchup, and it’s possible that head coach Kyle Shanahan will muster some tricks from somewhere against the Saints’ defence, but with the 49ers enormous injury list and the Saints looking ominously good last week I wouldn’t like to predict it.

Bills @ Cardinals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Broncos @ Raiders (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chargers @ Dolphins (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Bengals @ Steelers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Seahawks @ Rams (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

49ers @ Saints (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Sunday Night Football:

Ravens @ Patriots (+6.5)

In recent years this would be a great Sunday night game, and it still might spring something of a surprise, but between the players who opted out of the season or just aged out the Patriots are not a good team this year. The Ravens’ offence may not be firing on all cylinders and you would expect Bill Belichick and his staff to have some wrinkles for that offence, but with twenty-one places between their overall ranking by DVOA and this line dropping below the key number I am seeing online I’m going to pick the Ravens. I am nervous about this pick, but lets not forget that the Pats did nearly lose to the Jets last week.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Monday Night Football

Vikings @ Bears (+2.5)

The Minnesota Vikings won their second game in a row last week when they soundly beat the Lions, and they have a couple of winnable games coming up so if they can beat the Chicago Bears there is an outside chance of them dragging themselves back into the play-off hunt after a poor 1-5 start. It is a long shot, but the return of Dalvin Cook has given the Vikings’ offence balance and enabled Kirk Cousins to succeed in play-action while the defense is now ranked fifteenth in the league by DVOA despite the overhaul of the secondary. The Bears defense is of course the strength of the team once again, but even though it is ranked in the top five, the Bears offence is ranked twenty-eighth and their special teams are only a little better. Things have got desperate enough in Chicage that Mat Nagy has handed over play calling duties to Bill Lazor, which is a move I do like as it means Nagy can concentrate on managing the game. However, the Bears’ quarterback situation does not cover up the problems they are having on the offensive line and I kind of fancy the Vikings to win this one so with this liner once again dropping off a key number I am seeing online, that is the way I am going to pick.

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Eight

29 Thursday Oct 2020

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Well, week seven was pretty good to me as I picked up three points on Dan so I achieve my next target of getting his lead down to single digits so now I need to get within a couple of points and we’ll have a proper competition. There’s plenty of time left so let’s get to work on week eight’s competition Thursday.

Gee:Week 7:  7 – 7Overall:  49 – 57
Dan:Week 7:  4 –10Overall:  56 – 50

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is an odd game to pick as both teams are coming off a loss, but the Atlanta Falcons only have one win this season and the Panthers have now established themselves as a competitive franchise despite the rebuild on defence and the number of veterans who left or retired in the off-season. The consensus lines and numbers are suggesting I take the Falcons and they did run the Lions close in week seven, but right now I have a lot more faith in the Panthers and as they are ranked eight places better than the Falcons by DVOA and are at home on a Thursday night I am going to go for the Panthers as they only have to win by a field goal to cover this line. I am aware that my old maxim of always back the home team on a Thursday night unless there was a really good reason to didn’t hold up, but I have a lot more faith in the coaching of the Panthers so that is where I am putting my faith.

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Survivor Competition

We held serve last week with the strategy of picking against the Jets maintaining a 100% record, and there is little to suggest that will change this week with them taking on the Chiefs, but having lost with the Chiefs against the Raiders earlier this season I have to look. somewhere else in week eight. Looking at the matchups and the teams I have left I think my best option is to select the Packers hosting the Vikings and just hope I don’t’ get any divisional weirdness. Dan has gone in a different direction grabbing the Buccaneers visiting the Giants, which certainly makes sense as a pick.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 8 Selection:

Gee:    Packers
Dan:    Buccaneers

Bold Prediction of the Week

So Dan allowed both of my bold predictions on the podcast this week  in a triumph of doing some preparation ahead of recording, but also ensuring I have to keep doing something I fundamentally disagree with.

My first prediction was the Tua Tagovailoa will have more passing yards against the Rams than fellow rookie quarterback Justin Herbert will against the Broncos.

Secondly, the Bills will score more points this week against the Patriots than they did against the Jets in week seven.

Who Needs a Schedule Anyway?

15 Thursday Oct 2020

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Well ,week five finished with an unexpected result that I called wrong in the picks competition, which is becoming a worrying trend, but at least the Titans are back playing games and the NFL looks like it can keep to its scheduling plan for now. Meanwhile, the Bills after facing two scenarios about who they were playing have to move on quickly as they face the Chiefs on Monday night.

That said, I feel all over the place with the site at the moment, and having spent a chunk of time yesterday dealing with how our dynasty league would managed the waiver wire this week given that we were still locked in week five, I delayed this post by a day as there is no competition Thursday this week as we have no Thursday night game.

So let’s take a look at what happened in week five.

What I Saw

The week five Thursday night game was a ragged affair that I still found entertaining thanks to the two good defences on display, but it was frustrating to get my pick wrong as my assessment of the Buccaneers ability was fairly spot on but it was their indiscipline on offence that cost the Bucs this game. The Bucs actually went up by ten points in the first quarter of the game as the Bears struggled to move the ball consistently but kept themselves in touch thanks to their defence. The Bucs finished this game with three-hundred and thirty-nine yards of offence, ninety-six yards more than the Bears were able to generate but the Bucs also were flagged eleven times for a loss of one hundred and nine yards. This was forty-three more yards in penalties than the Bears and the combination of penalties and the Bears defence meant that after the first quarter the Bucs were only able to kick field goals for the rest of the game. That said, despite being streaky, Nick Foles managed to complete more passes that Tom Brady, even with Bucs corner Jamel Dean seeming to wage a one-person battle on the Bears’ passing attack at the end of the game. The Bears were able to do enough on offence against a Bucs defence that was regularly getting pressure to eek out a one point lead at the end of the game, but with how tight the game was the key play might have been when Bucs’ running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn caught a short pass and fumbled the ball setting up the Bears offence with a short field and that led to their second and last touchdown of the game in a crucial burst of point scoring in the second quarter. This is a game that I feel the Bucs really could have and probably should have won, but they need to clean up the penalties if they are to reach their potential. Meanwhile, if the Bears can keep getting enough production from Nick Foles on offence then their defence is good enough that they will keep winning games even if they likely won’t maintain their current twelve win pace or compete with the best teams in the NFL.

I don’t want to spend too much time on the Bengals this week as they were very poor, but the problem remains the offensive line and I’m now getting really worried about Joe Burrow operating behind it. In fact, I have a wider concern, Zac Taylor is a young head coach, hired due to his relationship with Sean McVay and the Bengals stressed how much they committed to his plan with rearrangements of both the practice facilities and offices, as well as hiring Taylor the largest staff they have ever had, but the offensive line is a good representation of my wider worry. Taylor’s choice of Jim Turner as o-line coach didn’t sit well with me from the start. Turner not only tolerated the bullying in his position group whilst at the Dolphins, but the investigation into the resulting scandal implicated him in taking part. Not content with this, when he returned to Texas A&M he was involved in another scandal involving inappropriate jokes at a football clinic for women. It’s one thing for a person to make a mistake and learn from it, but I have no patience for bullies or people who clearly have no interest in reforming their ways. The o-line has been a problem since Andrew Whitworth was let go, and the lead in to last season was undeniably tough with injuries and retirements, but it doesn’t feel like anything is changing or that players are developing and if the head coach can’t see this then I have to wonder about their judgement. It is appears I lied about spending too much time on the Bengals, but moving on to the Ravens – the blip against the Chiefs aside the Ravens are clearly a very good football team who will meet far stiffer challenges over the rest of the season and likely emerge victorious from most of them.

The other early game Sunday game I watched this week was the Carolina Panthers winning their third straight game, beating the still winless Atlanta Falcons. It was not a spectacle of a game, but the seventeen points the Panthers scored in the second quarter was enough for them to comfortably beat a Falcons team who have continued to struggle and that ultimately led to both GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn being fired. The Falcons have been trending this way for a while, but it had to be a difficult decision as a lot of the basis for the team that went to the Super Bowl is still there, but they have just not been able to recapture that form. Meanwhile, the Panthers have quietly got themselves to 3-2 despite losing Christian McCaffery to injury in week two, but could very well still be in contention by the time he returns from IR and that is a lot more than I was expecting of them coming into the season. The rest of this year will be strange for the Falcons as both players and coaches will be trying to prove they belong in the league, but it is going to be a long time before the Falcons as an organisation can do anything directly in terms of replacing their GM and head coach. That said, if the head start in the background checks the Falcons get by making the decision now leads to a similar result as what the Panthers have got so far with their new head coach having made an early change themselves last season then they will be very happy.

The final game I got to watch in week five was the closely fought contest that the Minnesota Vikings narrowly lost 27-26 to the Seattle Seahawks. The Vikings scored thirteen unanswered points to build a halftime lead, but came roaring back in the third quarter with three touchdowns and were taken to the wire by the Vikings. The big talking point coming out of this game was the Vikings decision to go for it on fourth down on the Seahawks’ six yard line with two minutes on the clock rather than kick a field goal. There may well be a statistical argument for doing what they did, both in terms of if they made the first down and in turning the ball over with under two minutes left on the clock on the opponents six yard line, and I would usually totally support the decision if that was the case. However, there are a handful of quarterbacks that you feel could execute a ninety-four yard drive in that time and Russell Wilson would be very much near the top of that list, particularly with the form he is in this season. The Seahawks did precisely that, scored the winning touchdown but failed on the following two-point conversion. The same conversion they would have needed to take the game to overtime if the Vikings had just kicked the field goal and taken an eight point lead. It is easy to be wise in hindsight, and I would normally support the maths, but this is one of the few times where I would countenance taking the safe option.

What I Heard

I am going to have to start taking better notes as I have heard lots of interesting things and couldn’t immediately bring a lot of it to mind. However, one thing that did stick is that whilst looking for what coaching tape to watch, I decided to look at the Football Outsiders DVOA stats for offensive line and have a look at the best team. Well, according to the site the team with the best adjusted line yards were the Cleveland Browns (closely followed by Dan’s Dolphins [the real NFL franchise, not his dynasty team]) and this was not wholly a surprise. Unlike the Bengals, who many people have commented on as being poor (although not in adjusted line yards where they rank a lofty twenty-six despite conceding the most sacks in the season so far), I have heard several people talking about how good the Browns’ offensive line is, and how impressive this was given they had a new coaching staff that had to install their offence during a Covid- shortened pre-season. A lot of credit has brrn given to their o-line coach Bill Callahan, and whilst I don’t know enough to evaluate him or the praise, it does make sense and I am looking forward to getting a head start on the coaching film this week with no Thursday night game.

What I Think

Despite the situation with the Titans, the NFL has as yet not lost a game from their schedule and they will be hoping the problems in Tennessee were an outlier and not a foreshadowing of what is to come. The NFL are continuing to adjust their protocols and re-enforce existing ones with talk of restricting the roles of those who are found to have been close contacts of players who have tested positive. I am still pretty impressed that the season has run as well as it has so far, but we are now heading into autumn with the weather becoming more favourable for the virus so soon we shall know if this start was the positive beginning of getting the season finished, or the warning signs that things are about to get a lot tougher.

What I Know

I know the Bengals o-line is bad, that the Panthers are better than I thought they were and that I am looking forward to seeing what Andy Dalton can do with the Dallas offence this week. It may not seem like much, but with everything going on at the moment I’m clinging to the small things and hoping the rest falls into place. I just hope the NFL have planned more carefully than that!

What I Hope

There is only one possible thin I can hope after the week five games, and that is both that Dak Prescott make a full and speedy recovery from his horrible injury sustained on Sunday and that it is a long time until we see anything similar.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week 5

08 Thursday Oct 2020

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I had a terrible week four picking games and have yet to record a positive score and having fallen 9 points behind Dan so I’m beginning to wonder if I need to completely overhaul my process or be even more trusting of the numbers, and this game is doing nothing to help me make up my mind.

Gee:Week 4:  4 – 11Overall:   28 – 35
Dan:Week 4:  9 – 6Overall:   37 – 26

Buccaneers @ Bears (+5.5)

I am really looking forward to watching this game as I haven’t seen the Bucs since their underwhelming opening game against the Saints, or the Bears at all, but I absolutely hate this line which sits right that awkward zone between points around a field goal win and a touchdown win. Given the consensus number I’m getting an advantage for the Bears from this line, and a fairly sizeable one at that, but the Bucs have won three straight, are the best team by overall DVOA, have the second ranked defence and Tom Brady. I don’t trust the Bears offence as they shuffle quarterbacks and even with tight end OJ Howard going down I feel like the Bucs have too many players that can hurt the Bears defence. This might be the wrong move right now, but given how previous methods have failed me I’m trusting my gut on this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Survivor Competition

Well we are finally scoring some points and I’ve managed to maintain my slender advantage, but the combination of games and who we’ve already picked is making this a tricky week or at least that’s how it feels to me. Dan is rolling with his plan to pick against the Jets and hoping the Cardinals break their two-game losing streak whilst I’m finding it really hard to find a team that convinces me. There’s a couple of options, but given I don’t like this week I’m going to throw in one of the better teams and hope it doesn’t bite me later in the season.

Current Score

Gee: 3
Dan: 2

Week 5 Selection:

Gee:     Chiefs
Dan:    Cardinals

Bold Prediction of the Week

Sorry all, but with Dan on holiday and podcast taking a week off I’m not doing something I don’t like without the evil producer pointing me in that direction.

Reality Bites

07 Wednesday Oct 2020

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We are through week four with a rescheduled bye week for the Covid-19 infected Titans and their week four opponents the Pittsburgh Steelers as well as first in week game delay. Before all teams are even through a quarter of their season, we have had our first coach firing of the season, there are six unbeaten teams though that is slightly inflated with the Steelers Titans matchup being postponed, and four winless teams that led to the first coach firing.

There’s a fair amount to get through and the NFL is not the only ones having disruption to their routine so let’s get writing whilst I still have time!

What I Saw

Week four may have started with questions still surrounding the Titans and Steelers game, but we got a surprise of the pleasant variety Thursday night when the less that enticing on-paper matchup of the winless Denver Broncos taking on the winless New York Jets turned into an enjoyable game. It was a relatively comfortable 37-28 win for the Broncos in the end, but a close first half saw a truly special run from Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold opened the scoring with a forty-six yard touchdown, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the Jets have been unable to build a team around him their third year quarterback to truly evaluate him. Darnold had to leave this game for a short period having been thrown down on his right shoulder, and whilst he made a go of it on the night, he is now on the injury report with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder and it is not known if he will be available on Sunday. It feels like only a matter of time before the Jets move on from Adam Gase, who has never really convinced as a head coach, but with the state of roster I don’t know whether they will try to rebuild around Darnold or if they will try something more drastic. The Broncos looked competitive in this game, but we know they were facing a struggling team and it is not too often a quarterback can throw three interceptions and still win the game. Their defence, which ranks twelfth by DVOA gives them something to build off, and Brett Rypien showed some good flashes when he wasn’t getting picked off by Pierre Desir. This was a surprisingly fun game to watch but hasn’t stuck in the memory so let’s move on to the weekend’s game.

Before the Cleveland Browns kicked off in Dallas against the Cowboys, Cam Newton had tested positive for Covid-19 and the Patriots visit to the Chiefs had been postponed in the hope of further testing allowing the game to play. The Browns started off by taking the lead with trickery as Jarvis Landry threw a thirty-seven yard touchdown to his fellow receiver Odell Beckahm and it looked like we could have ourselves a real contest as the Cowboys offence answered with a touchdown drive of their own and then took the lead. However, their defensive frailties started to show themselves at the start of the second quarter as the Browns equalised and as the Cowboys gave the ball away, the Browns quite literally ran away with the game, scoring twenty-seven unanswered points as the Cowboys failed to score until early in the fourth quarter. The pretty startling stat is that the Browns finished with over three hundred yards of rushing in this game and that’s with their starting running back Nick Chubb going down early with an MCL sprain. It is quite remarkable that the Cowboys’ managed to within three points with three minutes to go before a fifty-yard run on a reverse from Odell Beckham sealed the game 49-38. It was quite remarkable touchdown as by all rights Beckham should have been stopped well behind the line of scrimmage, but he managed to escape and got the distance. The Cowboys clearly have a potent offence, but they need the defence to step up so they can win games without the offence being perfect. They are 1-3 for a reason and could just as easily be 0-4. It is somewhat remarkable that are still second in the division and only a tied game by the Eagles from being top but they need to improve fast if they want to make anything of this season as it appears only one team will be coming out of the NFC East this year. As for Cleveland, they have a built a team who looks to have an identity and who can compete. I don’t know that they will push into the playoffs, but they are developing an offence that puts Baker Mayfield in position to succeed and not drive success and they are going to be a handful for anyone.

The other early game I saw was the Jacksonville Jaguars visit to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a game the Jaguars ultimately lost 25-38. The Bengals were fairly comfortable for a lot of this game with Joe Mixon having a productive game and Joe Burrow looking as good as he has done all season. Things seemed to have cooled off for the Jaguars after a positive opening that encouraged me after their first two games, but if there are some bright flashes from parts of the roster, they look a long way from promising I thought. The Bengals look to be changing generations at receiver and have some talent on both sides of the ball, but the offensive line has to improve as does the defence overall but in a season where I was only looking for hope, Burrow as show me at least that he could be the real deal. I’m just not as sure about Zac Taylor and I wonder if he is going to be hamstrung by his choice of offensive line coach.

The final game that I saw this week was the late game between the Buffalo Bills visiting the Las Vegas Raiders, which was not quite the contest I was hoping for with the Bills running out 30-23 winners and were another team who looked comfortable for a lot of the game. I was really impressed with the scheme of the Bills offence and the difference the addition of receiver Stefon Diggs made. If it were not for several drops Josh Allen could have had an even more impressive day throwing the ball, but Allen still throws some very hard passes at times so there’s still some touch to be developed. Still, the Bills really look like they have taken another incremental step forward with Josh Allen relying on his arm now instead of his legs to make the offence purr and the defence possibly rounding into shape so if they can keep things together they look like they could do more than just make the playoffs this season. Meanwhile, the problem for the Raiders is the same one they have had since Jon Gruden took over, which is that the offence can do as well as it can in the last two season, and is currently ranked tenth in the league by DVOA, but until their defence gets out of the thirties in defensive ranking then the Raiders are not going to be able to get where they want to go. Particularly sharing a division with the Kansas City Chiefs and their duo of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Derek Carr might not be the elite quarterback you dream of, but the offence helmed by him is good enough to win if they had more help from the other side of the ball.

What I Think

I have a minor case study in how disruptions can affect your routine and throw you out of sorts. I’m not saying being away for the weekend is the reason my picks were so bad in week four, but it didn’t help, and I have been off kilter all this week for one reason or another.

I mention this not to look for sympathy, but because I am not an elite athlete competing with the world’s best in their field. That is what the NFL is asking of its players in the middle of the pandemic and we really began to see the consequences of that as that reality began to bite.

As of writing we do not yet know what lessons need to be learned about the outbreak in Tennessee, and the early hope of several days without positive tests and the facility opening have been dashed by two more players testing positive. If there is good news to be taken from the Titan’s situation it is that no Vikings seem to have been infected and so it is working in close quarters with team mates and contact outside of the field of play that looks to be driving infection and not the action on the field. However, that will be tested with other teams having positives.

While the Titans are paying the price for this problem with an early week four bye and will now have to play thirteen games straight, whenever they can actually get back to playing. The Steelers who had to deal with uncertainty for a lot of last week ended up with an unscheduled bye week where they were not recovering but preparing for a game that did not take place. They will also face a thirteen-week streak of games for no other reason than a quirk of the schedule. Whether there will be further outbreaks that require move rounds of games I do not know, but even with the other game delay we are asking a lot of the players.

I heard it suggested that one of the reasons the Patriots game was delayed was not because they had lost a quarterback, but because they were the first travelling team to have a positive test at the weekend. In fact the team travelled in two planes to separate the close contacts with Cam Newton from the rest of the team. However, the Chiefs are now being asked to play three games of football in a remarkably short ten days have been moved to this Monday, play again on a short week on Sunday against the Raiders before travelling to face the Bill on the following Thursday night.

If that were not enough, the news broke today that Patriots corner Stephon Gilmore has now tested positive for Covid-19 have played at the weekend and was seen embracing Patrick Mahomes after the game Monday. Mahomes could well be safe, but it is clear that there is still room for improvement in teams facilities for protecting the players from the spread of Covid-19 and it may well be time for the NFL to be more flexible in the approach to scheduling games and stricter on how it isolates teams with positive tests.

What I Hope

I wanted to write about coaches and culture in the wake of the firing of Bill O’Brien in Houston having listened to Peter King interview both beat reporter John McClain on the situation for the Texans, and Panthers head coach Matt Rhule after the Panthers got their second straight win in Rhule’s first year as head coach in the NFL.

It is a hell of a season to be building a new culture when you haven’t done it before and I was impressed by his approach, but with the current situation I cannot focus in on that like I would want.

What I really hope is that we can learn to live with this virus until there is a game changing treatment or a vaccine.

That applies to everywhere and not just to the NFL, and right now we have to take the solace where we can find them. I hope that football can continue to be that in some form, but just like everything else in the world at the moment, it won’t be the same form for a long tiem.

2020 Week Four Picks

04 Sunday Oct 2020

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If one game being postponed was not enough to make clear the realities of playing this season in the middle of a pandemic, the positive test of Cam Newton and the delay of the Patriots game against the Chiefs as a backup quarterback on the Chiefs also tested positive is another reminder.

None of this is a surprise. Once the decision had been made that it was too impractical to bubble the NFL for the season, then the league knew that there would be positive tests and the protocols were designed to manage this situation. If there is good news to be had out of the situation in Tennessee where eight players and eight staff have now tested positive, it is that as yet there have been no positive tests at their opponents last week the Vikings or with the game staff. My concern is still that we are not yet out of the incubation period of the virus but we can hope that things hold and that there is not a lot spread amongst the now three other teams with positive tests.

Early Games:

It’s not a slate of games that instantly leaps out as containing classic games but there are interesting things about many of the games.

The two games that grab the attention first as the Cleveland Browns taking on the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints taking on the Detroit Lions.

The Browns trip to Dallas gives them a chance to build on their last two wins and with a top ten defense and an offence beginning to find a way they have a formula to be competitive with the Cowboys. However, the Cowboy’s offence has a lot of talent even if it hasn’t been able to convert fantasy points and yards into wins, but I am curious about whether the Browns can do enough to get the win or the Cowboys can back to 2-2 with an eye to pushing on in a division where all four teams have loosing records. The Cowboys are having real issues on defense so it is a good job their offence has been playing so well.

The Saints offence has struggled without receiver Michael Thomas who is missing for another week and Drew Brees not looking himself in the passing game. Their loss to the Raiders might be considered surprising but the Packers look to be a force to be reckoned with at the moment so last week’s loss is understandable. However, a trip to the Lions is a good test of how deep the problems for the Saints are. The Lions might be coming off a win but they are still not that convincing and with Alvin Kamara playing well for the Saints they will feel like they should win this game. The line reflects a similar confidence, but I can’t help but feel that things are going to be more complicated than that.

Other things of interest are:

  • I’m not sure why a team with no wins like the Bengals are giving away an extra half point to the, although this line was set early enough that they wouldn’t be aware of Joe Mixon turning up on the injury report.
  • I’m curious to see how well the Dolphins can compete with an explosive Seahawks offence and if they can make a game of it, or if the Seahawks will just keep rolling.
  • The Houston Texans have had a tough start to the season, so to come home and face a fellow struggling team like the Vikings presents an opportunity to turn their season around. The Vikings might be thinking something similar and although I’m not impressed by either team, I can at least see what the Vikings were planning but if the defensive struggles can be understood by the off-season overhaul, the offensive woes might have sunk their season already.
  • The Cardinals stumbled last week, and Kyler Murray had a bad game so it will be interesting to see if they can get back on track this week and keep pushing for the playoffs, or if the Panthers coming off their first win under Matt Rhule can build some momentum.
  • The Buccaneers hosting the Chargers looks to be a game that the Bucs should win. The Bucs defense ranks second in the league by DVOA and with Tom Brady’s experience on the other side of the ball it should be enough to see them past a Chargers team who have been close in every game but have only managed the one actual win.
  • The Ravens will be desperate to bounce back after last week’s loss to the Chiefs, and it is doubtful that Washington will be able to truly compete. They may have the fourth best defense in the league by DVOA, but I doubt they will be able to exert the scoreboard pressure the Chiefs did last week and it could be a very long day for Ron Rivera’s team.

Jaguars @ Bengals (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Browns @ Cowboys (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Saints @ Lions (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Seahawks @ Dolphins (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Vikings @ Texans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Cardinals @ Panthers (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Chargers @ Buccaneers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Ravens @ Washington (+13.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Late Games:

The game that leaps out to me in this matchup is the Buffalo Bills taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. I definitely want to watch this one as I haven’t seen a game at the Raiders new stadium and the Bills have started the season strongly, with Josh Allen looking to have taken another step forward. I think this is a game that the Bills could and possibly should win, but the Raiders have had a strong start themselves so I think this could be a really spectacular game.

The other game that could be competitive is the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Chicago Bears, but to me that depends to what extent Nick Foles can run Matt Nagy’s offence better than Trubisky has done so far this season. The Colts stumbled out of the gates, but have put together two very solid wins so I am curious to see how this game shapes up.

The Rams should have no problems in beating a winless Giants team travelling across the country to face them. It’s always possible for a team to stumble, particularly when both Dan and I have selected them as our survivor pick, but I think it unlikely.

Giants @ Rams (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Bills @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Colts @ Bears (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Sunday Night Football:

Eagles @ 49ers (-6.5)

This is a slightly strange national game given that the 49ers are dealing with a series of injuries but have been good enough to go 2-1 and beat the Giants by a lot last week, whilst the Eagles have really struggled this season having started the season 0-2-1. This might be a trap, particularly as I’ve seen numbers that suggest picking the Eagles, but with them travelling across county to face a better coached team and the Eagles getting under seven points, which is what I’m seeing as the consensus pick I’m grabbing who I think are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Monday Night Football

Falcons @ Packers (-7.5)

This is a tricky game for me as the Packers have been the much better team this season, but the large line and the numbers all tell me to pick the Falcons. I am choosing to trust my process even though I’m exactly even, but the extra half point over seven is a key number so let’s see if the Falcons can at least keep this one close even if they can’t get their first win this season.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Postponed Game

Patriots @ Chiefs (-6.5)

We don’t know right now if this game will be played Monday or Tuesday or if this will become the second game to be postponed this season. The Chiefs were already favourites and the move of Cam Newton to the Covid-19 list only confirms this. If the game goes ahead with a backup quarterback, the Patriots will do well to keep this game competitive. I think that’s possible, but the numbers still give me value with the Chiefs and as the better team I will give them a pick, but we shall have to see if there are more positive tests and if this games even goes ahead.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Testing the Protocols

30 Wednesday Sep 2020

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This week’s midweek post is writen in the unusual position of being published later than our podcast as we were racing the news.

After a solitary Falcons’ player testing positive on Saturday turned into eight positive tests for the Tennessee Titans on Tuesday, including three players, events have led to the closing of both the Titans’ facility and that of their opponents on Sunday the Vikings.

According to ESPN the three players are from disparate position groups – a starting nose tackle, the long snapper and a practice squad tight-end, but now everyone holds their breath as we see if the cases spread amongst the Titans players and staff, or to anyone with the Vikings.

It is not unexpected for there to be positive tests, but this is the next true test of the protocols agreed by the NFL and the NFLPA and I certainly have been checking for news updates more frequently than normal. What I’m hoping for is that the outbreaks remain in small numbers and that no one has a life changing version of the illness. There are plenty of those who would say that these players get paid enough money to take this risk, but many players earn nothing like the millions the stars do and they only have one body and one life to use it in.

We are living in an uncertain world, and this is yet another stark reminder of that fact. I just hope the plans are up to facing the reality of playing a season in the middle of a pandemic, because just writing that sentence feels ridiculous.

And with that said, I suppose I had better get back to my usual in-season mid-week post…

What I Saw

Week three started with a one side affair in Jacksonville that saw the Miami Dolphins run out comfortable winners 31–13 over the Jaguars. Dan is still annoyed he forget to put the followingin the podcast last night so he would like to say:

‘It was good to see that they allowed the Jags to run at about a third capacity, which actually means that attendance at TIAA Bank Field is up on last season!’

The Dolphins were able to move the ball consistently with a balanced attack, whilst the Jaguars who I praised coming into this game struggled with the Dolphins’ defence playing more zone defence and with the absence of DJ Chark. Undrafted rooking running back James Robinson still looked good for the Jaguars, but wasn’t able to drag the team into contention. It was obviously good for the Dolphins to get the win and Brian Flores has already established a culture with the Dolphins and what they are looking for this season is progress from last year. The only concern is that the future of this franchise lies in the hands of Tua Tagovailoa and as fun as it is to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick play quarterback, the Dolphins are not building towards the future with the thirty-eight year old journeyman and the wonder has to be when Tagovailoa to play. To be fair, we have just seen with Patrick Mahomes that the old way of sitting a quarterback for a year can still work as they learn how to be a pro, but we shall have to see if that is the plan or not. The Jaguars need to get back to winning ways, but a long week before travelling to take on the Bengals might be the very tonic they need.

On Sunday the Bengals decided to tease me with their third tie since 2014 and I was there for the 2016 tied game in London. The Bengals defence looked like it might have coped a little better with the Eagles, but the offensive line is still struggling so Joe Mixon is having to work very hard for his yards and Joe Burrow is still looking poised as he searches for his first win. There was a nasty moment when Burrow was force out of the game after a hard hit and I hope there are not too many more of them and the line begins to come together but I’m not convinced, although some of the young receivers are beginning to get more involved inthe game.  As for the Eagles, there are some very recognisable names on the roster, but things are not working for them right now and they are beginning to look like a bad football team. It is not as if the Bengals are a good team, they haven’t won away from Cincinnati since week four of the 2018 season, so dropping to 0-2-1 when facing a road trip to the 49ers and Steelers makes the Eagles’ prospects look pretty bad, particularly as their week six game is against the Ravens. This is a franchise who need to find some kind of consistent formula to move the ball on offence as their eighteenth ranked by DVOA defence doesn’t looked equipped to lead the way, particularly as their ranking drops down to twenty-third against the pass.

If the Eagles are having a disastrous start to the season, the New Orleans Saints are having a difficult one that saw them lose 37-30 to the Green Bay Packeers in the Sunday Night prime time slot. I actually thought that the Saints offence moved the ball more consistently than the Packers, with Alvin Kamara leading the way on the ground but Drew Brees if not actually bad, is not up to his usual standards though the absence of receiver Michael Thomas still hobbled by injury will not help. However, off-season acquisition Emmanuel Sanders looked to be building some chemistry with Brees in this game. The problem is that whilst a 2-1 start is perfectly fine, the Packers are looking pretty good at 3-0 right now and whilst their defence only ranks twenty-eighth by DVOA, that doesn’t really matter when Aaron Rodgers is looking so comfortable in his second year running Matt LaFleur’s offence. Even without favourite receiver Davante Adams, Rodgers was able to generate big plays with Allen Lazard getting deep multiple times on a day when he finished with one hundred and forty-six yards and touchdown. The Saints home field advantage is lessened by not being able to have their loud fans, but playing in a dome is still preferable to having Brees at forty-one playing in Green Bay in January and that looks a step closer with this loss. There’s plenty of time to make up ground and a lot can change between now and then, but that is definitely the kind of stakes these two teams are playing for so this is a loss that could come back to haunt the Saints..

Finally, the much heralded (including by me) Monday night game saw the Kansas City Chiefs roll into Baltimore and hand the Ravens a 34-20 loss. The Chiefs were able to get a lead and build upon it with their versatile offence, as the defence also managed to contain the Ravens offence. It seems that Ravens still have problem throwing the ball when this is obviously necessary, and so as good as this team are, they have limits when playing against a similar level of opponent right now. This game also served a timely reminder of just how good Patrick Mahomes is, as well as how electric Lamar Jackson is running the ball. We could be in the early stages of what ccould become a spectacular rivalry, but for that to happen Jackson and the Ravens need to find a way or a receiver capable of getting them receptions when the defence knows they have to throw the ball. This matchu cannot be a rivalry if one team always plays a team close but never wins. If there is a franchise that is capable of taking this step then it is the Ravens, but they must stop this narrative taking hold and becoming fact.

What I Think

I think we have been lucky for things to go so smoothly through the pre-season and early weeks of the season, but we are about to find out how difficult it is going to be to get through to the end. Since I wrote the introduction to this post, the game between the Steelers and Titans has now been postponed (perhaps to Monday or Tuesday) and no one knows if something will have to happen with the Vikings at Texans game. Every NFL team and fan is currently holding their breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop.

The NFL has plenty of resources to throw at the problem, but like everyone else it is a non-sentient virus that’s is driving the decisions whether we like it or not.

What I Know

In our dynasty league it is the first TWF showdown between Dan’s Dolphins and Gee’s Tigers and perhaps we need to work on our franchise names.

On the field the matchup I am most looking forward to is Andy Reid’s offence going up against Bill Belichick’s defence.

Off the field, the NFL have issued another strongly worded warning to coaches who won’t wear face masks on the side lines, threatening suspensions and loss of draft picks. With players testing positive, and other players being spotted without masks at a charity event with members of the public, the NFL will want to get hold of the situation because we are beginning to see how the current solution that has worked so far is not that far away from falling apart.

It’s going to take real discipline and a lot of effort to get through the season.

What I Hope

What I hope this week is that we find a way through, if not to the end of the season then without a life changing infection for someone.

That is something that could be said of any season in the NFL, but their is added complexity to it this years. Let’s see what the week holds.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.