Reacting to the Reaction

19 Wednesday Sep 2018

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#TWFSafeties, Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Brown, Arizona Cardinals, Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Clay Matthews, Cleveland Browns, DeSean Jackson, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jameis Winston, Jordan Berry, Josh Gordon, Kansas City Chiefs, Kareem Hunt, Kirk Cousins, Le'Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, New England Patriots, New York Giants, NFL, Oakland Raiders, OJ Howard, Patrick Mahomes, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quarterbacks, Retirement, Rule Changes, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Vontae Davis

Obviously the most important thing in the NFL last week wasn’t my terrible week of picks, but I fell into a common enough trap for fans (and boy am I kicking myself as I even referred to it when making picks) so as the dust settles on the week let’s take a look at what we can tell.

The mistake I made was reading too much into the week one scores and I said it was more likely that a team be 1-1 than 2-0 or 0-2 but as I said last week, as far as I’m concerned fans of the Bills, Giants, Lions, Texans, Raiders, Cardinals and Seahawks may now officially panic.

The Seahawks have the excuse of being on the road for both games so far but their offence is really struggling, the defence is changing, and so far the bright spot may be the Australian punter who tried drop-kick kickoff (it was a bad week for kickers as Vikings and Browns fans will attest). Some team’s troubles you could see coming like the Bills and the Cardinals, and there was plenty of talk about the Texans offensive line before they underwhelmed against a Tennessee Titans team quarterbacked by Blaine Gabbert.

Another team who are in an unexpected position is the winless Pittsburgh Steelers who still have Le’Veon Bell holding out and had Antonio Brown tweet out trade me to find out regarding a post about how Ben Roethlisberger had made him and also wasn’t there on Monday. Teams can get off to a bad start but this is not the kind of things you usually see in Pittsburgh and it seems like cracks are beginning to show in that team.

The strains in New England offence are obviously being felt as the Patriots have traded for Josh Gordon after the Cleveland Browns finally lost patience with the troubled receiver, apparently after he hurt his hamstring in a photoshoot. I have no idea if the change of scene and the famously strict Patriot approach will help the player but addiction issues are not simple and on a human level I just hope he finds a way to make use of his talents and be in a good place.

Meanwhile the strain was too much for Vontae Davis who retired at half of the Bills heavy loss to the LA Chargers. It’s not something I’ve seen before and there has been those supporting his decision and very vocal players upset by an action they take as quitting. I actually have sympathy with both points of view as in a sport as dangerous as the NFL that requires a physical commitment if you don’t have it, you don’t belong out there but if you’ve dressed for the game don’t you owe it to your team to get to the end as there are only so many corners.

Looking for more positive stories, the Kansas City Chiefs continue to have the most dynamic offence in the league, unsurprisingly toping the offensive DVOA stat thanks to the explosive skills players they have assembled and Patrick Mahomes’s stellar talent, which has allowed Andy Reid to pretty much do what he wants with the office. Even less expected is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offence is ranked second by DVOA as Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to do his best to keep the quarterback job whilst Jameis Winston is suspended. In Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson the Buccaneers have one of the league’s better receiving duos if their quarterback can get them the ball and if you haven’t seen it, watch the clip of tight end OJ Howard running in a seventy-five yard touchdown. Tight end is one of those positions that due to the complexity it often takes time for young players to adjust, but he has amazing speed for the position and could be the next tight end threat to terrify defences.

The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Patriots without their Pro Bowl running back Leonard Fournette but it was the much maligned Blake Bortles who took advantage of an aggressive game plan to throw for over three hundred and fifty yards with four touchdowns to one interception. If they can maintain a balance of improved offence to go alongside their frightening defence then they could very well go one better than last season and make it to the Super Bowl.

In my drive to document all safeties we had our first of the season when the Kansas City Chiefs visited the Pittsburgh Steelers and it demonstrates why special teams and the phases working together wins football games. The Steelers Jordan Berry sent a fifty-nine yard punt to the Chiefs’ one yard line, pinning them by the goal line that after an aggressive pass play on first down, led to Kareem Hunt being tackled in the end zone. Maybe a small part of me would have liked to see a quarterback get sacked but this is the essence of football, a game of territory where even if you don’t directly score, you created an opportunity that results in two points and you getting the ball back in good field position.

Speaking of sack, and the final thing I will round up this week. I think there’s been a lot of entertaining football so far this season, even if not all of the prime time games have been the ones to demonstrate this, but whilst we have fun offences and potentially good young quarterbacks to enthuse about, there’s also the familiar issues surrounding the rule tweaks. Despite the worry ahead of the season being around the lowering the head hitting rules, these haven’t been called that much or caused that many issues and the two bad quarterback hits I have seen have been in open play when the quarterback slides and the hit to Cam Newton just looks bad. The actual problem call has been the new landing on the quarterback rules. This essentially cost the Packers a game when Clay Matthews was called for roughing the passer despite making a pretty much textbook form tackle of Kirk Cousins. Now I get why after Aaron Rodgers’ injury last season, and given how much the league is hurt whenever one of their marquee quarterbacks get injured, that the league doesn’t want their quarterbacks being driven into the ground by three hundred pound defensive linemen but there’s only so much a defender can do and if we’re going to start penalising tackling as opposed to dangerous play then we are going to see ridiculous scorelines. They won’t change the rule now and I wonder if even the instructions to the refs will change given that I suspect what the league is worried about is keeping the quarterbacks on the field. I hope I’m wrong.

So on to the next week where we’ll get to see if the Browns can finally get that win having been competitive twice, if the remaining undefeated teams can remain so, and I can keep testing my search of pro-football-reference.com that should make sure I don’t miss any safeties this season.

NFC Preview

05 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, Alvin Kamara, Aqib Talib, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Ben McAdoo, Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Carson Wentz, Chicago Bears, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Dan Quinn, David Johnson, Detroit Lions, Dirk Koetter, Dom Capers, Doug Pederson, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ezekiel Elliott, Green Bay Packers, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Jason Garrett, Jay Gruden, Jerick McKinnon, Jim Bob Cooter, Jimmy Garoppolo, John Lynch, Julio Jones, Khalil Mack, Kirk Cousins, Kyle Shanahan, LA Rams, Larry Fitzgerald, Marcus Peters, Matt Patricia, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Michael Dickson, Mike Pettine, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, Mitch Trubisky, Nate Solder, Ndamukong Suh, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFC, NFL, Nick Foles, Odell Beckham, Pete Carroll, Philadelphia Eagles, Rashaad Penny, Roquan Smith, Sam Bradford, Sam Shields, San Francisco 49ers, Saquan Barkley, Sean Lee, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Steve Sarkisian, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Teddy Bridgewater, Todd Gurley, Wade Phillips, Washington

18-09-05 NFC-2

So having set myself this ridiculous task, it’s time to try to finish my whistle-stop previews in time for the start of the season so on to the NFC!

NFC North

The Minnesota Vikings won the division at a canter last season and whilst they might not have it all their own way this year now the Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and healthy, they are one of the fancied teams in the NFC. Having let three quarterbacks walk at the start of free agency they signed Kirk Cousins and expect to match offensive production with their fearsome defence. The offensive line is the one obvious weakness but in Mike Zimmer they have one of the best coaches in the league and I think they will be there or there about come December.

The Green Bay Packers had a down season last year thanks to Aaron Rodgers’s broken collar bone, but they will be hoping for a return to the playoffs now he’s back and healthy. A new GM saw the Packers dip into free agency more aggressively this offseason and after nine years they let go of Dom Capers and brought in Mike Pettine as a new defensive coordinator. It hard not to see the Packers in contention come the end of year as long as Rodgers stays healthy and if things gel for them they could be one of the better teams in the league.

The Detroit Lions went nine and seven but failed to make the playoffs and decided to go for a new head coach. They brought in Matt Patricia from the Patriots and a lot of the focus this year will be on just how good a coach the Belichick pupil is. Having left a team with the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA last season , Patricia takes over a Lions team that ranked nineteenth so we shall have to see, but I like the continuity of Jim Bob Cooter staying in charge of offence and continuing his successful work with Matthew Stafford. I can’t take too much from pre-season as I didn’t see any of the starters, but they were not impressive against the Browns and they could be a candidate for a team who struggles. We’ll just have to see how things work out and a lot depends on how successfully Patricia blends what he learnt in New England with his own beliefs now he’s the man who is ultimately responsible.

I was feeling things were on the up for the Chicago Bears even before they swung the trade for Khalil Mack. I’ve seen their offence improve over the course of the pre-season and whilst I’m not necessarily convinced by Mitchell Trubisky, with the skills players the Bears brought in through free-agency and new head coach Matt Nagy’s offensive scheme the Bears almost can’t help but improve on offence. The defence was pretty good before the addition of Mack and rookie linebacker Roquan Smith so I can see why there is a buzz around this team. How many wins this will actually yield this year I don’t know, but I like the aggressive approach the Bears took having realised how short a window an NFL franchises gets to exploit having a quarterback on a rookie contract. Whilst I didn’t like how they manoeuvred to get Trubisky in the draft, I like how they surrounded him with talent this offseason. Now let’s see just how big a dividend the team gets.

NFC East

The Philadelphia Eagles come into the season with one of the strongest rosters on paper, but there are a fare few injuries floating round apart from the Carson Wentz making his way back from the ACL and LCL tears. More worrying is that the Super Bowl winning Nick Foles and the first team offence have not scored a touchdown in pre-season. I think they are still favourites for the season and after the Super Bowl win Doug Pederson had all the affirmation he needs to stick to his plans but there may be a difficult few weeks ahead.

The Dallas Cowboys have lost a lot of franchise cornerstones over the last couple of seasons and big questions remain over who Dak Prescott will be throwing the ball to so a lot rests on how well Ezekiel Elliot can run the ball. That won’t be helped by the injuries to an offensive line that has been the cornerstone of the Cowboys’ offence in recent years. Meanwhile the defence has been more impacted by whether Sean Lee plays or not than any other unit has been by a single player that is not a quarterback. I’m not ready to declare them non-competitive just yet as there is potential for them to have a good year but it would not surprise me if they do in fact struggle, particularly as Jason Garrett doesn’t fill with a lot of confidence as head coach if this team starts to have difficulties.

Washington failed to make the playoffs last season and after several seasons of franchise tagging Kirk Cousins they traded for Alex Smith and then promptly gave him an extension. I am not convinced by the roster moves over recent years and I have a feeling that Jay Gruden will likely have his team win another 7-9 games like they have the last three seasons. There have been positive noised about Smith’s performance in the pre-season and when healthy Jordan Reed has been one of the most effective tight ends in the league in the passing game but I don’t know if the changes that have been made indicate a big improvement.

The New York Giants were a car crash last season with Ben McAdoo losing the locker room, the offence failing to function minus Odell Beckham and the defence slipping to a rank of eighteenth by DVOA having been second in 2016. This year’s Giants have a new GM and head coach who doubled down on Eli Manning despite his flagging form in recent years. They brought in Nate Solder from New England to solidify their offensive line at left tackle and drafted Saquon Barkley second in the draft without trading down and ignoring the various quarterbacks they could have had. There are genuine arguments about taking even as transcendent a talent as Barkley is thought to be over a quarterback given their respective values to a team and career length, but it seems they could have also struck a deal to move down but this what they have to play with now. The worry is how much does Manning still have in the tank but the coaching situation has to better than last year and so whilst I expect an improvement, I don’t know quite how much of a step up the Giants will make. I just hope they don’t regret not grabbing a quarterback when they had the second pick in the draft, who know when they’ll next pick that high again and they certainly will be hoping it isn’t for a while.

NFC South

The NFC south was one of the most competitive division s in the NFL last season with three teams finishing with double digit wins and making the playoffs.

The New Orleans Saints had a franchise changing draft bringing in enough defensive talent to shoot their ranking up into the top ten by DVOA whilst Alvin Kamara generated 1901 yards of offence. There were whispers that Drew Brees’s arm was not quite the same but he’s still as good as any quarterback in the league and threw for four thousand yards for the twelfth straight time! Yes he’s thirty-nine, but there don’t seem to have been any serious signs of decline yet and the Saints have just traded for Teddy Bridgewater who looked excellent throwing the ball for the Jets in pre-season. I’m not sure I would have invested the amount of draft capital the Saints did to pick such a raw pass rush talent in the first round as they did in this year’s draft but I suspect they will be there or there abouts at the end of the season.

The Carolina Panthers’ experiment with changing the way Cam Newton plays failed early in the season but he now has a new offensive coordinator in Norv Turner and I will be very interested to see how this works out. They do have multiple injuries at offensive tackle so it may be a work in progress but for his occasionally maddening accuracy issues, Newton is an effective quarterback in the style that he plays. If the defence continues to be in the top ten by DVOA then I would feel confident in saying that the Panthers will contend. My only concern is that for the last six years the Panthers have alternated double digit win seasons with seven win seasons, although one of them did net a playoff appearance. I certainly don’t believe this constitutes a pattern that is going to suddenly manifest itself in a seven win season but I do worry about their Panthers consistency from year to year. As ever we shall just have to see what the season holds.

The Atlanta Falcons were coming off a difficult Super Bowl loss last season and losing their offensive coordinator to the San Francisco 49ers. They were still a good team but the offence didn’t quite flow under Steve Sarkiesian but the defence continued to shape up under head coach Dan Quinn’s direction and they made it to the playoffs once more. Having adjusted Julio Jones’s contract and extended Matt Ryan’s contract the Falcons look set to challenge once again this season and may feel they weren’t far away last season in the playoffs.

The other team in the NFC South very much feel like the other team. Head coach Dirk Koetter was promoted because of his relationship with Jameis Winston who so desperately wants to be a leader but hasn’t quite managed that or to develop his play. Winston starts the season on suspension after groping an Uber driver and this franchise feels like it is disarray and it would not exactly surprise me if this team struggles all season. We shall have to see how the season plays out and it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong, but come the end of the year I suspect it could be all change for the Buccaneers.

NFC West

Last season’s surprise package in the NFC were the LA Rams who were transformed by young head coach Sean McVay who overhauled the offence to reignite Todd Gurley and rescue Jared Goff from the category of draft bust whilst leaving Wade Phillip alone to run the defence. Not content with making it to the playoffs last season they added Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Sam Shields, and Ndamukong Suh to the defence. It’s clear they have faith in Wade Phillips to control that combustible mix of personalities but there is no doubting these players talent and if both sides of the ball live up to expectations they will be one of the more formidable teams in the league. I’m not sure if it is possible to live up to some of the hype but the Rams would be my pick as favourite for this division.

The Seattle Seahawks had a tough time last year as injuries hobbled the legion of boom and it has been all change for the franchise in the offseason. Not a lot is expected of them, particularly with Earl Thomas holding out but I’m ready to give up on Pete Carroll just yet. The offensive line might finally have solidified a little according to those watching closely and Rashaad Penny, the Seahawks’ rookie running back, has been turning heads in pre-season. As has Australian rookie punter Michael Dickson who managed to kick two fifty yard plus punts out of bounds within the five yard line in one game. I’m not prepared to guarantee anything other than a competitive team, but I think they could surprise a few people this season.

The Arizona Cardinals seem a strange prospect for me without Bruce Arians never mind having to find a new starting quarterback. We know that Sam Bradford is unlikely to make it through the season without getting injured and that receiving legend Larry Fitzgerald deservers a better team, but David Johnson is returning from a wrist injury and so he should get back to something like his previous form. However, with a new coaching staff and so much turmoil it feels like whilst this team in transition might rally round and surprise people, it could also really struggle and something says to me that struggle is the more likely option. I always want to see teams and players do well so I hope to be proved wrong.

Finally, in this two day scramble of writing madness we come to the only team with a quarterback who has an undefeated starting record in the NFL. It is a small sample size so whilst I’m certain that Jimmy Garoppolo’s steak won’t continue throughout this season, the hope that he and first year head coach Kyle Shanahan gave last year will continue to come to fruition this year. However, they have already lost running back Jerick McKinnon to an ACL injury and it’s worth remembering the place that the 49ers started from when John Lynch came in to be Shanahan’s GM last year. I expect the 49ers to be competitive even if they can’t replicate the five game winning streak from the end of last year’s season but the fans from San Francisco may have to wait until next season to return to the playoffs given the size of the rebuild job that had to be taken on. I wouldn’t necessarily put any money on that though…

The Playoff Fallen

20 Saturday Jan 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Playoffs

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Alex Smith, Andrew Whitworth, Andy Reid, Atlanta Falcons, Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortels, Blake Bortles, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Derrick Henry, Drew Brees, Eric Berry, Greg Olson, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Kareem Hunt, Kelvin Benjamin, Kyle Shanahan, LA Rams, LeSean McCoy, Marcus Mariota, Marcus Williams, Matt Nagy, Mike Mularkey, Mike Shula, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Norv Turner, Patrick Mahomes, Pharoh Cooper, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rick Dennison, Ryan Shazier, Sean McDermott, Stefon Diggs, Steve Sarkisian, Tennessee Titans, Todd Gurley, Todd Haley, Travis Kelce, Tyrod Taylor

So I need to catch up with the teams who have departed the playoffs so having started this post last week, here’s my now finished run through the playoff fallen starting with the losing wild card teams.

The first team to fall were the Kansas City Chiefs who managed to lose a game to the Tennessee Titans that they were leading 21-3 at half time. The Chiefs have been up and down this season with a significant mid-season lull that gave way to a four game win streak coming into their playoff game against the Titans. However, a number of factors combined for the Chiefs to lose this Wildcard game and demonstrated one of the warts that has affected them all year. The defence of the Chiefs has had problems ever since safety Eric Berry ruptured his Achilies, but their overall ranking of thirtieth by DVOA and dead last against the run showed up in this game when the Chiefs failed to stop the Titans’ second half come back and Derrick Henry finishing the game with one hundred and fifty-six rushing yards. The Chief offence also came to a sputtering stop once Travis Kelce left the game with a concussion meaning the Titans could focus on stopping the speedy Chiefs receivers with two deep safeties. The Chiefs further played into this by only giving Kareem Hunt elven carries in the entire game and running Alex Smith at inopportune moments. The Cheifs’ recent playoff record is also clearly on their usually very loud crowd’s mind as it got quieter the better the Titans did, although I defy any fan to be confident when the opposing quarterback throws a touchdown pass to himself.

This could well be Alex Smith’s final game for the Chiefs given his 1-4 playoff record in the five season that he and head coach Andy Reid have been with the franchise and with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings. I don’t believe this loss can really be blamed on Smith and they could stick with him as they develop a still raw Mahomes but patience does seem to be wearing thin for a section of their fans and the narrative seems to be that Smith will leave in the offseason. Their current offensive co-ordinator Matt Nagy has already left to be the new head coach of the Chicago Bears and with Smith’s current playoff record perhaps it is time to change with a new coordinator coming in. The defence will also need an overhaul given the age of a number of players and their reliance on a twenty-nine year old safety who will be recovering from an Achilles injury next season. In recent years the Chiefs have been competitive but their approach last offseason seemed to be split between short term and long term agendas and I am curious to see how they approach this one.

The second team to lose on wild car weekend were the LA Rams whose remarkable turnaround season couldn’t overcome the playoff experience of the Atlanta Falcons whose defence was able to stifle the Rams offence. This was mainly due to excellent tackling against the short routes so although Todd Gurley did get over one hundred yards on the ground, he was not able to dominated in the way he has for much of the season. As frustrating as this loss was, part of the problem were repeated special teams miscues by Pharoh Cooper early in the game, which was not a reflection of his Pro Bowl special teams play through the year. Still, this was a season of marked improvement for the Rams with plenty of young players to grow with their coach and you would expect them to be competitive next season but it has to be hard for Andrew Whitworth to lose another wild card playoff game.

The Buffalo Bills scraped into the playoffs on the back of a final drive fourth down touchdown pass from the Bengals’ Andy Dalton but they couldn’t overcome the Jaguars in their first playoff game in eighteen years. The Bills defence managed to contain the Jaguars offence by committing to stopping the run and daring Blake Bortles to beat them in his first playoff game. This plan could have worked if Tyrod Taylor didn’t have nearly as bad a game as Bortles and LeSean McCoy was fully healthy, but the offence couldn’t do enough and the game was lost 10-3. This was still a turnaround for the Bills and first year head coach Sean McDermott has things to work on but offensive co-ordinator Rick Dennison paid the price and the Bills will be one of several teams looking for a quarterback this offseason. The Bills could continue their improvement, but they will be limited until they get a quarterback and offence in place that everyone in the franchise believes in.

The final wild card game saw the Carolina Panthers lose to the New Orleans Saints for the third time this year. The Panthers have been very solid on defence all year, but their offence has been very up and down. A slow start was not that surprising given that Cam Newton was coming off shoulder surgery in the offseason and the Panthers were trying a new approach, but this never really took and the offence didn’t really start to work until Newton began to run more. This made the play of Newton very important for how the offence went, which is not that unusual for a quarterback but Newton’s size ability to run, whilst being a dangerous weapon, has to make up for his volatility in the passing game. When Newton is on he is as dangerous a quarterback as there is in the league, but with injuries at receiver (the Panthers also traded away Kelvin Benjamin during the season) and Newton’s favourite target tight end Greg Olsen battling with a foot injury that was clearly still affecting him, he was not able to beat the Saints despite playing well. Going into the offseason the Panthers have replaced offensive co-ordinator Mike Shula with Norv Turner so a new offence will be installed in the summer and it will be fascinating to see how these changes work and how Newton takes to although at least he will be able to practise this offseason.

Moving on to last week’s games and the first team to fall were the Atlanta Falcons who couldn’t match their performance against the Rams when they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in a tight competitive game. The Falcons were only able to score ten points on the league’s fifth ranked defence by DVOA but whilst the offensive rankings of the Falcons don’t look bad (tenth in passing and sixteenth rushing by DVOA) it does feel like this unit underachieved given the calibre of players available. Yes some regression from last year’s stellar performance was to be expected but it has been a difficult year for Steve Sarkisian in taking over from Kyle Shanahan and whilst he is coming back next season, there will be pressure to improve or the discontent could cause real problems. This could be true for the whole staff given the painful playoff exit and the Super Bowl last year given that both games were winnable. Still, if the offence can be brought round and the defence continues its rise the Falcons could be very formidable next season.

The Tennessee Titans had done well to win their first game against the Chiefs, but there are limits and it was always going to be a tough job to go into Gillette stadium and beat the New England Patriots. To their credit, the Titans kept it competitive for a quarter and took a 7-0 lead before the Patriots shook off the rust from their bye week and ran out easy 35-14 winners. The Titans were pretty average in all three phases of the game this season and actually ranked three places lower by overall DVOA at eighteenth compared to last season. Despite getting a playoff win head coach Mike Mularkey was unable to come to an agreement with the Titans’ front office and so they will be looking for someone new to develop Marcus Mariota. The team definitely improved under Mularkey with a pair of winning seasons but the play of their young quarterback does not look to have progressed as you would hope and I have to think they are looking for a new offensive philosophy and someone who can make one of the most dynamic quarterback in recent college history look like that in the pro game. Given the success that the Chiefs and others have had in incorporating elements from the college game into their offence this does seem achievable, but it all depends on who takes over. Still, at least the Titans have progressed and they are no longer a team devoid of talent and identity, but there are some very big decisions to be made this offseason.

The NFL had great pair of games on Sunday and the opener saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars 45-42 and crash out the playoffs at home. The Steelers had got a first round bye with a 13-3 record and finished the regular season ranked inside the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA. However, there were two problems that sank them in this game. I am reluctant to talk about motivation and whether the players were looking past the Jaguars to a conference championship game at the Patriots, a matchup that many had expected for a lot of the season, but what I can say is that the Steelers started slow. The Jaguars got out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, and whilst the Steelers were able to get back into the game, they were never able to get closer than seven points until the very last second of the game with a meaningless touchdown that came too late. The Steelers offence did manage to put up forty-two points against one of the best defences in the league but it was not easy and there had to be a lot of impressive catches and fourth down conversions to get them. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defence never looked the same one Ryan Shazier was lost to the spinal contusion he picked up in the Steelers’ brutal game against the Bengals in week thirteen. The talk has mostly been about fourth down conversions and the slow start, but the Steelers defence let a league average offence with Blake Bortles as their quarterback put up forty-five points on them and that has to hurt.

Some changes are already taking place. There appears to have been discord between offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger but Haley’s contract has expired and he is not being renewed. It looks like quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner will replace him and Roethlisberger looks to be a lot more committed to coming back next season than he was last offseason with all his talk of retirement. Still, given that Shazier had to have spine stabilisation surgery and as far as we know hasn’t walked yet, let alone be anywhere near playing football again (if that is even a possibility), the Steelers will need to address the defence again this offseason but it feels like they should be able to take another deep run next season.

If the first game on Sunday saw an upset against a veteran quarterback, the second saw a miraculous play knock out the New Orleans Saints and their future hall of fame quarterback. The Saints finally managed to assemble a defence that could do enough to get Drew Brees into the playoffs again, ably helped by the league’s best rushing attack by DVOA. Two all NFL rookies helped with this turn around and having seen off the Panthers last week, it looked like the Saints were going to beat the second seeded Minnesota Vikings when they found themselves on fourth down with seconds to go, no timeouts, and were one point behind the Saints. However, another one of the Saints’ rookies, safety Marcus Williams who already had an interception in this game made a horrible play as Stefon Diggs caught a ball in front of him. All Williams had to do was stop Diggs from getting out of bounds and hold him up so Diggs could be tackled in bounds, but he came flying past Diggs without touching him allowing Diggs to turn and suddenly there was no one between him and the end zone. The Vikings fans fortunes finally changed as the miraculous play went their way and the Saints promising season came to a shuddering halt.

That play will haunt Williams all offseason, whilst the franchise will be worrying about re-signing Drew Brees who is an unrestricted free agent. However, given the way this year’s team played, and the potential for their rookie players to develop further next year then it is hard not to see Brees back playing for the Saints and them being very competitive next season. After a number of years where they were asking Brees to do too much, they now look setup to compete as long as Brees is willing and able to play like he did this year. We should make the most of being able to watch him whilst we still can.

Wildcard Sunday

07 Sunday Jan 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Playoffs

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Avin Kamara, Blake Bortles, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Christian McCaffrey, Doug Marrone, Drew Brees, Greg Olson, Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars, LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram, Marshone Lattimore, Nathan Peterman, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Sean McDermott, Tom Coughlin, Tyrod Taylor, Wildcard Weekend

Buffalo Bills (9-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

The early game on Sunday is also probably the unlikeliest if you had asked anyone before the start of the season as it features the Bills breaking a seventeen season streak of not making the playoffs travelling to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team who themselves haven’t played a playoff game in ten years.

The Jaguars stuck with interim head coach Doug Marrone having fired Gus Bradley during last season and brought Tom Coughlin back to help in the front office. The change has worked with a couple of further additions to an already talented defence creating a unit that led the league by DVOA and that has carried the team through the season. The only problem has been that the offence has been so focussed on running the ball and limiting quarterback Blake Bortles that this is not a team built to come from behind. With the league’s best passing defence this has not been a problem during the regular season but could be an issue in the playoff as the level of competition increases and they face some of the best offences in the league.

The Bills come into this game after the high of breaking a streak of missing the playoff but I’m not sure anyone would have predicted that happening during an offseason where the new regime overhauled the roster, trading away known names as they started again. This continued into the season and it was clear that a long term project was under way and that the team wanted a particular type of player on the roster. The main talk surrounding first year head coach Sean McDermott was his decision to start Nathan Peterman in week eleven. The rookie quarterback threw five interceptions and the game was lost horribly but to McDermott’s credit he did not lose the team after this debacle and nearly everything else has been impressive about the way the Bills have competed in his first year. Their offence may only be ranked twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA, but they can run the ball and Tyrod Taylor may be conservative but he does not turn the ball over. In LeShaun McCoy the Bills have a running back that can break big runs but he is carrying an ankle injury coming into this game and whilst it looks like he will start, a back that is successful because of their lateral movement and explosiveness is definitely going to be affected by an ankle problem. This is a shame given that the Jaguars rank a surprising twenty-sixth against the run. The Bills defence is sold rather than spectacular but did generate twenty-five turn overs, which was eleventh in the league.

In this battle of playoff underdogs my heart wants the Bills to win, but the head thinks that the Jaguars are the better team. If Blake Bortles has a bad game and McCoy can show some of his top form then the Bills can win this game, but they really need further improvements to truly compete and I would expect the Jaguars to win this one.

This game does represent want the NFL wants, competitive balance with every team truly able to sell to their fans that next season we can make the playoffs..

Carolina Panthers ((11-5) @ New Orleans Saints (11-5)

The final game of the weekend looks to be one of the most competitive as two division rivals with matching records face off against each other.

The Carolina Panthers have had a strange season where their defence has looked good all year, finishing sixth by DVOA but the offence has been up and down all season. An early attempt to change the way Cam Newton plays did not work and it was only when they went back to running him that the offence was truly effective. The problem with this is that unlike the season where he led this team to the Super Bowl, Newton’s play has been erratic and he has put in some truly bad passing performances. However, he is a truly dynamic player that can wreak havoc running the ball and he is likely to need to as his receiving options are not playing that well currently and his favourite receiver Greg Olson has not returned to his usual form since returning from the foot injury that kept the tight end out for most of the season. The Panthers do have a dynamic rookie receiving running back in Christian McCaffrey but with the evolution of the offence it doesn’t feel like the Panthers have a clear overall plan and so he has flashed his undoubted skill rather than dominated.

The Panthers travel to face a Saints team who have demonstrated just how quickly a team can turn round in the NFL. The Saints were coming off three seasons of 7-9 and seemed to be wasting the end of Drew Brees Hall of Fame career as they could not surround him with a defence that could make the team competitive. The highlights of this turn around are two players who could arguably be offensive and defensive rookie of the year. In running back Alvin Kamara they have an efficient complement to Mark Ingram who is truly terrifying in space and has the hands to help Drew Brees in the short passing game. In Marshone Lattimore they have a rookie corner who looks anything but a rookie and although it took a few weeks for the defence to gel, they finished the season ranked eighth in the league by DVOA and the Saints were overall number one as well.

The easy narrative for this game is that it is hard to beat a team three times in a row, but football is a game of matchups and in both of their previous games the Saints have scored thirty points and won the game. The Panthers have been one of the more aggressive teams in the league in terms of blitzing and the Saints have been pretty similar in this aspect of defence, but Brees is a much more precise quarterback and is better equipped to exploit the quick passes necessary to disarm the blitz. Newton is more than capable of using his legs to gain yards and avoid pressure but it feels like the Panthers, whilst being competitive are less likely to win this game.

I am very much looking forward to seeing how this game unfolds, but I do expect the Saints to run out winners for a third time.

Saturday Picks

23 Saturday Dec 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Jack, LA Rams, Matt Ryan, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Tom Brady, Week 16 Picks

As we head into the last two weeks of the regular season the playoff situation is becoming clearer, but as much as the focus has been on the turnaround of the new teams that are going to make it like the Philadelphia Eagles, the LA Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars there are a lot of familiar and experienced quarterbacks lurking or in pole position. No one would be surprised if Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady battle it out in the AFC championship game, but in the NFC whilst there are three inexperienced quarterbacks looking like they will win their divisions, the NFC South looks like it could send Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan into the playoffs. That’s three quarterbacks who don’t just have playoff experience but have been to a Super Bowl and in Brees’ case, won one.

With Carson Wentz’s injury the Eagles are less dominant in the NFC and it certainly feels like any one of the six teams that would go through if the season ends today could get on a run. The AFC is a somewhat murkier, especially given the partially torn calf muscle of Steelers’ receiver Antonio Brown. It is a fool’s game to be predicting what will happen, but it does feel like the NFC teams are stronger this season, but as we witnessed in their game last week, you should count the Patriots out at your peril. Something Dan and I failed to take into account when picking against them, although we both had winning records last week.

Gee: Week 15 11-5 Overall 128-97
Dan: Week 15 9-7 Overall 117-108

Colts @ Ravens (-13.5)

The Indianapolis Colts were competitive for a half last week, but in the end they were thoroughly beaten by the Broncos and this week they travel to face the Ravens in Baltimore who have been playing well of late. The Ravens have also pitched three defensive shutouts this season and I suspect the Colts will struggle to move the ball on them. This is a big line, but the Ravens have won six games by fourteen points or more this season and so I’m going to nervously back them to do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Vikings @ Packers (+6.5)

The Minnesota Vikings just keep rolling and with the Green Bay Packers placing Aaron Rodgers back on IR after they were eliminated from the playoffs it is hard to see anything other than a Vikings win in this game. It is a divisional game so it could be more competitive than generally assumed, but Rodgers’ absence has demonstrated how important he is to this team, and I think the Vikings should cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Saints @ Panthers

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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Brandon Coleman, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Concussions, Dannell Ellerbe, Drew Brees, Jonathan Stewart, Luke Kuechly, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Robert McClain, Ted Ginn, Tim Hightower

Carolina Panthers 23
New Orleans Saints 20

This was as good a Thursday night game as we have had in a while in that what started off as a very one sided game ended up with an exciting finish thanks to a late surge by the Saints and the Panthers struggling towards the end of the game.

The Panthers offence was up and down for most of the game as they struggled to make any headway in the run game and so were often forced to pass the ball with mixed success. The run game was particularly bad as Cam Newton, Jonathan Steward, and Ted Ginn all had runs of ten yards or more, and yet the Panthers managed a paltry fifty yards in total. Jonathan Stewart’s eighteen carries for thirty-one yards looks particularly anaemic, although these numbers will have been hurt by a dangerous attempt to run out the clock that nearly cost the Panthers the game in the fourth quarter. Cam Newton managed not to turn the ball over, but he completed less that fifty percent of his passes, but did manage to connect up with Ted Ginn for a forty yard touchdown thanks to a great catch at the back of the end zone at the end of the second quarter. This game could have been won a lot more easily if the Panthers had kept playing offence into the fourth quarter, but the offensive line struggled a lot throughout the game and the attempts to run out the clock just did not work.

The Saints defence played better than I was expecting, and whilst I knew it had taken some steps forward since the start of the season, I was not expecting them to cause as many problems for the Panthers as they did. The real star of the show was the Saints front seven who effectively shut down the Panthers running game, as well as getting two sacks and seven quarterback hits. In fact they hurried Newton several times, with Dannell Ellerbe coming up with four tackles, a sack, and two quarterback hits. The Panthers’ struggles in the passing game were as much to do with Cam Newton’s accuracy as coverage, but the pressure he was under was surely a factor and re-enforces the old maxim that good coverage helps create pass rush, and pass rush helps create good coverage.

The Saints offence had a harder time scoring than the Panthers for much of the game, but they actually out-gained the Panthers by nearly one hundred and fifty yards. That said, part of that seemed to be that their running game improved when Mark Ingram went out of the game in the third quarter and Tim Hightower came into the game. Hightower amassed sixty-nine yards on just twelve carries including a long of twenty-seven yards. The Panthers were able to pressure Drew Brees who was sacked three times and hit a further four times, but he threw for over two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns with only one interceptions. Rookie receiver Michael Thomas led the team with five catches for sixty-eight yards, but Brees had nine different players catch balls as he distributed the ball with characteristic skill, but in the end it wasn’t enough.

The Panthers defence has been better since the bye, the front seven coming back to form as their very young secondary came together. They struggled later in this game, with 6ft 6 Brandon Coleman catching the Saints’ first touchdown over 5ft 9 Robert McClain with Leonard Johnson having gone out of the game. However, the real worry for the Panthers will be Luke Kuechly who left the game sobbing in the fourth quarter and who is once more in the concussion protocol. Their leading tackler missed three games last season to a concussion, and whilst Friday’s Instagram picture with a smiling Kuechly may give hope to some, you have to be worry about how much more football he should play. As fantastic a player as Kuechly is, and I have been very bullish on my praise in the past, the troublesome nature of head injuries in football and the position he plays means it may be time for him to seriously consider his career.

This was a tight game that should have been a highlight of the Thursday night schedule, but with two players now in the concussion protocol the gloss has come off the game. As much as I love football, we cannot and should not ignore what can happen to players, and I just hope that both players make a full recovery and listen to their doctors.

The Futility of Making Picks but Doing It Anyway

06 Thursday Oct 2016

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Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Charles Tillman, David Johnson, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Josh Norman, Kelvin Benjamin, Navorro Bowman, New England Patriots, NFL, Paxton Lynch, San Francisco 49ers, Tom Brady, Trevor Siemian

Our picks have not been pretty over the last two weeks, despite me building a five point advantage over Dan, but in a way the failures highlights why I love the NFL and there is a reason we keep picking games.

One of the characteristic things about the NFL is through a combination of deliberate attempts to foster parity like the Draft and salary cap, and the unpredictable nature of a game with such large rosters and high injury rates, it is incredibly hard for a team to remain consistently good from season to season.

The Carolina Panthers, who last year went 15-1 in the regular season on the way to the Super Bowl have got off to a 1-3 start with Cam Newton picking up a concussion in the fourth quarter of their week four loss to the Atlanta Falcons. They Panthers were already well behind when Newton left the game as their defence that was such a strength last year gave up over five hundred yards of passing with Julio Jones accounting for three hundred of them as he caught twelve passes from fifteen targets and scored a touchdown. Some of this is likely down to the loss of not just Josh Norman, but Charles Tillman and the addition of two rookie corners, but team have not been in synch on offence either despite getting Kelvin Benjamin back from injury. The worry would be for me that one player was able to get so many yards individually and that the coaches didn’t adjust, but there appears to be a real problem in Carolina.

The Arizona Cardinals who played so well last season are, struggling as their offence is misfiring, and they have a fallen to a 1-3 record despite having one of my favourite head coaches in the league. Things are not clicking for them on offence in the passing game, although David Johnson looks to be continuing on from his excellent rookie season last year. However, a stumbling offence and a defence that hasn’t gelled yet do not win football games, and so it is now less surprising that the Patriots were able to beat them in week one despite Tom Brady being suspended.

Meanwhile, to counter this point the Denver Broncos are 4-0 despite losing Payton Manning and a number of defensive starters. The defence is still playing to a very high standard, whilst the offence is getting improved results from a very inexperienced starter in Trevor Siemian, and continued to do enough a win when he hurt his should and Paxton Lynch came into the game. They look to be up there again this season, and it certainly seems that John Elway has a clear idea of what he wants and this has been delivering results so far for him.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule model of consistent success for the last decade has been the New England Patriots. They have started the season 3-1 despite Tom Brady’s suspension, but even the best teams don’t win all of their games and they came a cropper this week as having beat the Texans 27-0 in week three, they lost to the Bills 16-0. I wouldn’t bet against them this week with Brady returning, but we get these kinds of results fairly regularly and so it kind of makes a mockery of picking games each week.

There is a reason that I do it though, and not just because it gives me a something to write about. I don’t really like making predictions in terms of it proving one way or another that someone knows what they are talking about, it’s a standard requirement of covering sports, but at the end of the day if the outcome was so predictable there would be no reason to play the games. I like writing about what I have seen, what happened, and why I think it did.

However, picking games against the spread gives me a framework to look at each team, and helps highlight which teams I need to watch more. Of course you always tend to be interested in certain games each week, but by looking at what might happen, it keeps you focussed across the entire league and encourages sharpness, or in the last couple of weeks, distinctly dull. That said, I doubt many people were expecting for the Bills to beat the Patriots in the way they did, and that was far from the only surprise result.

So despite the poor record, we’ll keep ploughing on and hopefully things will improve, but you can never guarantee anything in the NFL.

Gee: Week 4 6-9 Overall 27-36
Dan: Week 4 4-11 Overall 22-41

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cardinals are in real trouble, with Carson Palmer not playing well even before he got a concussion and on a short week he shouldn’t play. Against almost any other team with the start they have had, this would strongly tempt me to pick against the Cardinals despite by admiration for Bruce Arians, but even though they are on the road in San Francisco, I can’t bring myself to pick the 49ers to win, especially after losing Navorro Bowman last week on defence.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

The Season Starts, Panthers at Broncos, and Week 1 Picks

11 Sunday Sep 2016

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Andy Janovich, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, CJ Anderson, DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos, Devotae Booker, Greg Olson, Kelvin Benjamin, Luke Kuechly, NFL, Star Lotulelei, Thomas Davis, Trevor Siemian, Von Miller, Week 1 Picks

And so my offseason work meets the start of the regular season as I recap what I have been watching, the season opener and then pick the rest of the week one games.

I have been following the Broncos during the offseason, where their defence has continued to look good despite losing some players, and Trevor Siemian beat out Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch to get the starting quarterback job. With the ongoing saga regarding Von Miller’s contract, the cutting of Mark Sanchez and Ronnie Hillman, GM John Elway has certainly not been afraid to make the big decision and whilst I think there will be some come down from last season with a seventh round pick starting under centre for the first time, I do think the Broncos will be competitive again this season.

The Carolina Panthers travelled to the Denver Broncos to open the season on Thursday, and in a sign of how Dan and my picks are likely to go, the Broncos won after the Panthers missed a last seconds field goal giving us our first losses of the season.

This ended up being a close game with the Panthers starting off well and going into the half with a ten point lead, but ultimately falling short as the Broncos came back in the second half. That the game was close with two such good defences should not be surprise, but I’ll start with the offences.

The Broncos offence looked surprising good for most of the game, although it seemed to function better between the thirty yard lines than it did at getting the ball into the end zone. For the most part Trevor Siemian didn’t look like a rookie quarterback, and certainly he was better than his stat line might suggest. However, whilst for the first interception Siemian failed to get the ball over Star Lotulelei on a screen pass, and the big defensive tackle tipped the ball up for Thomas Davis to make the interception, on the second interception he was hit by Kurt Coleman who had a free run at Siemian on a blitz and hit the QB as he threw enabling Bene Benwikere to intercept the ball. Yet the Broncos were able to move the ball throughout the game, particularly on the ground where CJ Anderson was able to rack up ninety-two yards on twenty carries. Certainly the rookies in the Broncos backfield will look back on their first NFL regular season carries differently with Devnotae Booker fumbling the ball and causing a turnover on his, whilst fullback Andy Janovich took his twenty-eight yards to score the Broncos first touchdown of the season. Even with his modest eighteen of twenty-six completions for one hundred and seventy-eight yards, there were good throws by Siemian and with the defence of the Broncos playing tough they will remain.

The Panthers meanwhile look like the same team as last year when running the ball, with Cam Newton gaining fifty-four yards to complement Jonathan Stewart’s sixty-four and Ted Ginn picking up twenty on an end-around carry. In the passing game Newton was happy to have Kelvin Benjamin back, connecting with him six times on twelve attempts as well as with Greg Olson for seven catches. However, Newton still doesn’t have the prettiest of throwing motions and took a couple of hits that would worry any coach. It is hard to read too much into how they are going to go this season as they were facing another strong Broncos defence, but they did give up three sacks and so the offence line might be a worry again at the tackle spot.

If the Broncos defence didn’t quite pick up from where they did last year, they were still very good with some familiar face making some key plays. They may have been a bit softer against the run, but both Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware got sacks and Chris Harris tipped and intercepted a ball in an impressively athletic play. In fact, there were no signs of Ware having any problems with his back despite what had been said in preseason as he bent low and got round the corner for his solo sack, and he also shared in a second later in the game. With a rookie quarterback, the Broncos will be leaning on this side of the ball and the running attack and for this game that certainly worked.

The Panthers defence looked solid but not spectacular, and whilst you could see flashes of Kuechly’s usual excellences, plus they did generate the interceptions I mentioned earlier, it was not exactly a dominant performance. The rookie corners seemed to hold up okay, but there will be tougher tests down the road and we will just have to see if this group can play up to the standards that were set last year.

Moving back from the opening game, I have two more teams to cover in terms of the preseason before moving on to our picks for the rest of this week’s games.

For the Cincinnati Bengals, apart from a couple of rookies getting injured, things seem to have gone relatively smoothly through the preseason, although AJ Green limping out of the week three game was very nerve racking. This may be misplaced confidence, but I have faith in the system and so despite losing two receivers that played a lot of snaps, the new receivers are already looking the part with Tyler Boyd seeming to fit in seamlessly and rookie free agent Alex Erickson looking effective both out of the slot and as a kick/punt returner, which led to long term Bengal returner Brandon Tate being cut when the Bengals were getting down to seventy-five. The defence is getting older, but there does seem to be youth waiting to come through, but I think the Bengals will be in the playoff hunt, and I just hope the steps Andy Dalton took last year were as much to do with his development as Hue Jackson’s coaching.

The Rams have had an offseason of upheaval as they move to LA and had the Hard Knocks crew filming them. It has not been a brilliant series, but the big worry for the Rams has to be that the first round quarterback that they traded up to get has not even won the backup job for the first game of the season. I am not against bringing on quarterbacks slowly, but this has to be a worry given all they gave up to get Jared Goff. The Rams defence looked to be coming together finally in game three of the preseason, and certainly I am expecting a monster year from Aaron Donald. However, whilst Todd Gurley looks to be a staple of the Rams’ offence, what will be key is whether some of the receivers can step up and offer more in the passing games than they have over recent seasons. I have quite liked the look of rookie receiver Pharoh Cooper, but with Tavon Austin seemingly more a gadget play threat than a true number one receiver, they will need more than a rookie showing flashes to improve that side of the ball. I think the Rams may well be heading for another battle to get above 8-8, but in a tough division they could easily fall short of the playoffs again.

And now on to the rest of my week one picks:

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Falcons haven’t grabbed the imagination, and whilst I like the pedigree of their head coach in Dan Quinn, his side of the ball is not fixed yet and the move of Vic Beasly to strong side linebacker is troubling given that he was supposed to be a first round pass rusher. The offence has struggled for consistency since Matt Ryan lost tight end great Tony Gonzalez, but he does have one of the best receivers in the game in Julio Jones. However, Jones can’t do everything on offence, and the Falcons could do with lowering his workload as he is taking a ton of punishments with the number of catches he is making. They will hope that the signing of Mohamed Sanu will help with this, but the proof will be seen during the season.

The Buccaneers were so keen to keep continuity for their new franchise quarterback Jameis Winson that they fired Lovie Smith and elevated offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach. They have the prize for the worst draft pick when they moved up to draft a kicker in the second round, and he has already missed kicks in the pre-season, generating a lot of extra pressure for the young player. They will be hoping that the supposed better kicking and the improvement of Winston will be enough for them to win more of the close games they lost last season, but as ever only time will tell.

I like the Bucs on the road in this one to be competitive, and possibly even win so I have been tempted into backing them on the road thanks to the extra half point the Falcons are giving up. I hope I’m not mistaken.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Bills @ Ravens (-3.5)

The Ravens have injury problems already at tight end, but still have a long way to go before they are as banged up as last season. I think this could be a trying season for the Ravens as there are sections of the team that are still old, but I expect them to have more wins that last season and they are never an easy opponent for anyone.

The Bills have been suffering the usual drama that seems to surround a Rex Ryan team, and with injuries to key rookies on defence just being the start to their problems, I have feeling the Bills will be missing the postseason again. I do like Tyrod Taylor, and think it’s likely that the Bill offence will be pretty good again, but whilst Taylor will want to beat the team he started with, I can’t see it happening.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Bears @ Texans (-4.5)

The Texans had a draft that was all about find other receiver to play across from DeAndre Hopkins to help him and free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. The worry for Texans’ fans will be JJ Watt’s back injury, and how he will look in the early part of the season that he was not necessarily expected to see. That said, the word is that Jadeveon Clowney is looking the best he ever has for the Texans and they have to be hoping that without the quarterback carousel they had last season that a strong playoff push is possible.

The Bears are still a way away from such hope, and whilst I think they are heading in the right direction, I don’t think this season will see much of an improvement in terms of wins than last season. The defence is looking like it is beginning to shape up, but with a new offensive coordinator and the ever talented but interception prone Jay Cutler at quarterback, I’m not sure they have enough to cover this spread on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Bengals @ Jets (+1.5)

The Jets have one of the older rosters in the league, and seemed to cost their starting quarterback a lot of practice reps in the offseason in a negotiating tactic that didn’t seem to net them much of a reduction in cost and has to be a bad decision overall. They still have a formidable defensive front, but I think they could slip as a team, particularly as the only AFC East team not to get a game against the Patriots whilst Tom Brady is suspended.

I still have faith that the Bengals opening up the season on the road can win this one despite them having to use new receiving options on offence, and I just hope this one doesn’t bite me for personal reasons.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Browns @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles have had a torrid offseason, culminating in the trade of their starting quarterback Sam Bradford to the Vikings last weekend. I think I can see what the plan is, and I am very much looking forward to seeing Fletcher Cox let loose in Jim Schwartz’s defence, but with Carson Wentz suddenly leap frogging Chase Daniels to start at quarterback, I think it could be a long season.

The Browns seem to have a renewed vigour with a new front office approach and Hue Jackson as their head coach. They have to be hoping that the Browns’ young players show enough to convince owner Jimmy Haslam to have some faith in the process and stick with it long enough for it to bear fruit.

I am definitely looking forward to this game, and certainly intend to watch it, and I think it will be much more competitive than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Packers @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars are all about this season, with Gus Bradley really needing to reward the Jaguars’ owner’s faith in him with at least a challenge for the playoffs. This is the team that keep getting tipped for a break out year, but with a string of moves and picks on defence to go along with a developing offence I can see it finally happening.

The Packers keep steady with their draft and develop philosophy, but the insistence on relying on receivers to get open with one on one routes last season was frustrating as they weren’t able to capitalise on having probably the best quarterback in the NFL. They look set to take the NFC North this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes.

This is a big swing in points to the Jaguars, and whilst I think the Packers may well win this game, I just fancy the Jaguars to cover. This may bite me as I seem to remember this happening a lot with the Jags last year, but it hasn’t put me off in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Vikings @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans are very much focussing on the running game, with the addition of DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry at running back, and announcing their offensive philosophy as exotic smash-mouth football. If they stick with Mike Mularkey as head coach then at least they will have a consistent plan with an offseason to implement it, and they will certainly hope the running game will help keep second year quarterback Marcus Mariota healthy. There have been some surprising names let go, but clearly Mularkey is focussing on running this team his way and only time will tell if this yields an increase in wins.

The Vikings must still feel they have the team to push for a Super Bowl, or they would not have traded a first round pick and anywhere between a fourth and a second round pick for Sam Bradford. They have a strong defence, and should have won their playoff game last year barring a missed field goal. Their new stadium will see a competitive season thanks to Mike Zimmer’s excellent defence, and he will keep this tem focussed despite losing their franchise quarterback to a horrible injury, but it will be an uphill battle all the way. Still I expect them to win an ugly game against the Titan, which will be something of a throwback given the likely focus on running the ball that both teams will display.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Chargers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs defence looks to be struggling with injuries to their key pass rushers, but I still expect this team to at the top of the division, pushing for a playoff place and more. For all of his clock management issues, Andy Reid is a really good football coach and I expect this team to be there or there about come the end of the season.

The Chargers are not nearly as stable, and have not managed to win consistently despite having one of the better quarterback in the game. For a lot of last season their offence only functioned because of how quickly Philip Rivers could get rid of the ball, and with their first round pick holding out for nearly the entirety of the pre-season I worry about what kind of year Rivers will have in terms of wins.

I don’t think the Chargers are going to get off to a winning start, but I’m not sure the Chiefs will run away with this game either.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Raiders @ Saints (-1.5)

The big question f or me this year is whether the Saints defence can improve enough for them to be competitive, and whilst it will be hard for them to be as bad as last year, there were so many holes and it has been such a problem for the Saints that I see them falling short of the playoffs again this year.

The Raiders seem poised to make a push for the playoffs, and whilst I’m worried that this may be the same kind of hope as the Jaguars that doesn’t quite materialise, they have been drafting well and with some good free agent signings for the offensive line and defence, I do expect them to pushing for the playoffs and look forward to seeing if they get there or not. I do expect them to win this one though.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Dolphins @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks look to be set for another strong season despite the defence losing more depth, and an offensive line that remains a huge question. The development of quarterback Russel Wilson will need to continue as he gets handed full control of the offence with the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, but certainly his form at the end of last season will give them hope.

The Dolphins come into this year with a more coherent plan for the offence, but the back seven of their defence worries me and I think they may well fall short of the playoffs this year. I’m picking the Dolphins to cover as the Seahawks are giving away a lot of points, but I don’t expect them to win and I think it could be a long season for the fans in Miami.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Giants @ Cowboys (-3.5)

It might be time for Tony Romo to retire, but certainly Jerry Jones is having none of it, and at least in Dak Prescott they look to have a capable backup and very possibly a future starter. The defence is still a worry for me, but with that offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott the Cowboys will be looking to dominate in the running game and will give the Cowboys a fighting chance.

The Giants made a lot of moves to shore up their defence, which does not fill me with a lot of hope as the winners of free agency rarely seem to do that well when the season rolls around. This is one of those wait and see teams, but with the all the problems they had on the roster last season, I think there is more wrong than just Tom Coughlin who the owners were clearly pointing the finger at when they fired him and stuck with everyone else. I really think there is more to it than that.

We will have to see how this game goes, and I don’t feel that strongly, but I’m backing the Cowboy reluctantly at home as I just don’t trust the Giants.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Lions @ Colts (-5.5)

Everyone is expecting a better season for the Colts, but whilst I prefer the intentions of their draft, the line hasn’t necessarily gelled yet and I’m still not sure where the pass rush will come on defence or how they’ll cope without the injured corner Vontae Davis. I’m not saying there season won’t be better, but I’m certainly not ready to pencil them in for a division win just yet.

The Lions are a team in flux, but I quite like the direction of their offence with Jim Bob Cooter changing things when he became offensive coordinator last season, and I think the pairing of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones at receiver will do well even if no one can replace Calvin Johnson. The defence hopes to be healthier at defensive tackle, but I’m not sure how much of a push this team will make overall. However, I’m certainly not ready to back the Colts giving away 5.5 points yet.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Patriots @ Cardinals (-5.5)

The Cardinals are in win now mode, and with the additions of Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche they look to have an improved pass rush for a defence that already blitzed as much as anyone in the league. You know that a Bruce Arians offence will be taking plenty of shots downfield, and running back David Johnson will be looking to build on his excellent rookie season. I think they will be in contention at the end of the year, with the only questions being about keeping ageing quarterback Carson Palmer healthy and hoping there aren’t any big game legacies from last year’s playoff loss.

The Patriots are everyone’s tip to win the AFC East despite Tom Brady being suspended for four games. Certainly the addition of Martellus Bennett as a second tight end has excited people about the Patriots double tight end sets for when Brady returns. However, this is pretty much as tough an opening game for this team as they could have been set. I think that Belichick will win out in the end, but it is not unusual for his teams to start slow and with a quarterback making his first NFL regular season start I think the Patriots start off with a loss, even if there won’t be too many more to follow.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Steelers @ Washington (+3.5)

Washington really gained momentum at the end of last year to win their division, and with another solid draft and the signing of Josh Norman, I expect them to be competitive in their division again this year as Kirk Cousins tries to earn himself a franchise quarterback’s contract.

When the Steelers have all their players on offence they are truly terrifying, and their defence is beginning to take shape, but I do think the suspensions will take their toll early. They could easily make me look stupid as Antonia Brown is the best receiver in the game, but I’m not sure that they will run away as winners in this game and so I’m taking the home underdog to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Rans @ 49ers (+2.5)

The 49ers woes will continue into this year if for no other reason than it takes time to rebuild a roster. It will be fascinating to see how Chip Kelly does and what he has learnt from what happened in Philidelphia, but I could very easily see the 49ers picking first at next year’s draft.

The Rams will want to be making fans in LA by winning, and despite the worries that I laid out earlier, I think that they will win their opener in San Francisco.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Photographic Proof and a Quick Pick

08 Thursday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, NFL, Nick Ferguson, Shaun Gayle, Trevor Siemian

So, as happens from time to time, my carefully laid out writing time hit a real life speed bump, so instead of the piece I was expecting to finish today, I shall give you photographic proof of Dan and I interviewing real life NFL players for the podcast that will be dropping this evening, and our picks for the season’s opening game tonight. Football is here!

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)

It’s been years since the season has started with a rerun of the Super Bowl difference, but there has still been a fair amount of turnover in the rosters and most importantly, Denver will be giving Trevor Siemian his first NFL start.

I think that the Broncos will have a competitive season thanks to a defence that still looks good despite the losses of several players, but it is doubtful they will be able to play as well as last year and so some regression should be expected on that side of the ball. Furthermore, whilst statistically Peyton Manning was a shell of his former self, Manning still had his football brain and in the playoffs having excepted his limited role was still eeking out what advantages he could through making sure the Broncos were in the right run play and managing the clock. All of this will be replaced by a green quarterback who will be looking in first instance to not lose the game, particularly as he doesn’t have the strongest arm in the world.

The Panthers will be trying to demonstrate that they have a counter to the plan the Broncos used last time, but given what a narrow path to success the Broncos had to follow, plus a Panther team that will want to prove a point even if it won’t be revenge for a Super Bowl loss, I think the Panthers will run out winners. The front seven of their defence remains formidable even if they will be starting a lot of rookies in the secondary, but with the league MVP Cam Newton getting new passing options, they should be strong on that site of the ball although there are still questions about their tackles, particularly facing a pass rush like the one possessed by the Broncos.

I’m not thrilled about the Broncos getting points, but I’ll pick this game for the Panthers, and I’m really looking forward to seeing in the start of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

And Then There Were None

14 Sunday Feb 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos, Jordan Norwood, Kony Ealy, Mario Addison, NFL, Peyton Manning, Super Bowl, Thomas Davis, Von Miller, Wade Phillips

And so the season is done, and the Denver Broncos are the champions for the year. I know Dan and I really enjoyed the Super Bowl this, but this kind of defensive battle is not to everyone’s taste.

The aftermath has been dominated by discussions surrounding Cam Newton’s post game press conference and follow up comments, but I am reluctant to get too involved in this. He did not have a good game, Dan and I were commenting that he didn’t look right from the start of the game. The Super Bowl is a huge one-off game, and the Broncos played outstanding defence, which I will look at in a bit. The big talk is of Newton’s final fumble where he didn’t dive for the ball. As ever, the cover up is worse than the original incident. It has to be said that I didn’t particularly notice him not going for it at the time, and in the replay I just saw a player hesitate, which is understandable given that an oval ball bounces in random ways and all I saw a wrong footed player. However, a lot has been made about him stating he was worried about his leg getting hurt as it was in an awkward position.

In this age of over the top praise and blame, Cam Newton is almost the perfect quarterback for the media. He was lauded before the game as a new breed despite us having seen running quarterbacks before, although not ones so large with the ability to run the ball with power so regularly. However, he also has his flaws and some of them came to the fore in this game. He is not a rhythm thrower, in fact his footwork bothers me quite a lot. The fact that is not pretty isn’t exactly the issue, but if you’re feet are not good then you can struggle with accuracy and this can certainly affect Newton. He also seems to have one speed of throw, fast. His arm strength can and does make up for his technique, and you will see him make throws from awkward positions that very few quarterbacks can make. However, this does mean that if you need short sharp throws to counter a defence then you are going to struggle. He holds onto the ball longer than most quarterbacks in the league, and when facing a defence like the Broncos that can cause all sorts of trouble, but let’s look at what the Broncos did so well to win the game.

The Broncos defence has been good to great all year, and a large part of that is there is no weakness at any level of this defence. Yes the pass rush is formidable, but part of that is that their secondary covers very well so it is hard to get the ball out quickly. This was particularly the case for the Panthers’ receivers who dropped a couple, and were open a couple of times and didn’t get balls thrown their way, but the plain fact is that they did not get open often enough in this game. However, a lot of the problems that the Panthers had were caused by their inability to get much of anything going on first down. The Broncos spent a lot of the game in their base 3-4 defence, even if the Panthers were running three receiver sets. Clearly Wade Philips did not want them to be able to get their running game going and they were largely successful at this, forcing the Panthers out of their preferred game plan, and too many times this meant long passing plays that allowed the Broncos to rush the passer. The other structural nuance was how the Broncos rushed the passer. The Panthers run a lot of passing plays where they send fewer receivers on routes, keeping extra blockers in. However, this created two problems for them as the Broncos’ secondary could cover the fewer receivers, and the players that were assigned to the running back or tight end who was blocking would cover the player until they realised they were blocking and then rush the passer on a delayed blitz. This could clearly be seen on the last play before the half when running back Fozzy Whittaker couldn’t help left tackle Michael Oher as Broncos Linebacker Danny Trevathan spotted that Whittaker was blocking and so followed Malik Jackson on the inside pass rush, which allowed DeMarcus Ware to go round Oher virtually untouched to get the sack.

This really was a team defensive performance, but the focus has been particularly on the MVP Von Miller who had 2.5 sacks for the game and forced two fumbles, including the one that led to the Broncos touchdown in the first half.

If the Broncos defence was great, the Panthers defence was really not very far behind. They limited the Broncos offence to fewer than two hundred total yards, generated two turnovers of their own from Peyton Manning, and if they had won the game had their own MVP candidate in Kony Ealy who finished the game with three sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception. After the first drive they bottled up the Broncos offence, stopping them from sustaining drives even when the Broncos broke the odd run for a decent gain. It was even more remarkable to see Thomas Davis flying round the defence with his broken arm, something that media has certainly been quick to comment on given Newton’s mention of worry about a potential injury. The problem however was that between offensive turnovers putting them in bad positions, and the longest punt return in Super Bowl history, they were given too many short fields to defend. Even then they held the opposition mainly to field goals, only giving up one touchdown, but there were too many mistakes by the team as a whole for their great play to overcome.

The punt return by Jordan Norwood deserves special mention as it so easily could have gone wrong. Norwood clearly doesn’t call for a fair catch, but was surrounded by Panthers and was even bumped by one. Yet somehow he escaped the coverage team and ran for a record breaking sixty-one yards. It was pretty impressive to see defensive end Mario Addison chase Norwood down to prevent any further gain or even a touchdown. The defence held the Broncos to a field goal, but this game was a slow death filled with these little losses that in the end did for the Panthers.

And so at the end of the game Peyton Manning got his second Super Bowl win, pretty much as a passenger, but this was still a feat of leadership. He came to recognise he didn’t have the tools any more, and contrary to earlier in the season where he was throwing interceptions far too frequently, in this playoff run he limited himself, handed the ball off, milked the clock, and used every bit of his experience to get the win. I really hope that this is the last we see of him in pads as impressive as this was, I can’t see him repeating it and there was very little fun in watching this great player performing in such a way other than hoping he can go out on top.

And so the season has come to an end. The offseason started weeks ago, but whilst I will be following all that is going on, I will be taking a break from the blog. I will be writing other things, and I’m sure it won’t be too long before I will be reading and learning more about football. This year I’ll be doing the odd offseason blog around things like the draft, or if particular things crop up during free agency, but for now it is time to take a rest. Roll on next season, just not for a little while.

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Tag Archives: Cam Newton

Reacting to the Reaction

NFC Preview

The Playoff Fallen

Wildcard Sunday

Saturday Picks

Saints @ Panthers

The Futility of Making Picks but Doing It Anyway

The Season Starts, Panthers at Broncos, and Week 1 Picks

Photographic Proof and a Quick Pick

And Then There Were None