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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Tag Archives: Week 4 Picks

2020 Week Four Picks

04 Sunday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Cam Newton, Covid-19, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, NFL, Week 4 Picks

If one game being postponed was not enough to make clear the realities of playing this season in the middle of a pandemic, the positive test of Cam Newton and the delay of the Patriots game against the Chiefs as a backup quarterback on the Chiefs also tested positive is another reminder.

None of this is a surprise. Once the decision had been made that it was too impractical to bubble the NFL for the season, then the league knew that there would be positive tests and the protocols were designed to manage this situation. If there is good news to be had out of the situation in Tennessee where eight players and eight staff have now tested positive, it is that as yet there have been no positive tests at their opponents last week the Vikings or with the game staff. My concern is still that we are not yet out of the incubation period of the virus but we can hope that things hold and that there is not a lot spread amongst the now three other teams with positive tests.

Early Games:

It’s not a slate of games that instantly leaps out as containing classic games but there are interesting things about many of the games.

The two games that grab the attention first as the Cleveland Browns taking on the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints taking on the Detroit Lions.

The Browns trip to Dallas gives them a chance to build on their last two wins and with a top ten defense and an offence beginning to find a way they have a formula to be competitive with the Cowboys. However, the Cowboy’s offence has a lot of talent even if it hasn’t been able to convert fantasy points and yards into wins, but I am curious about whether the Browns can do enough to get the win or the Cowboys can back to 2-2 with an eye to pushing on in a division where all four teams have loosing records. The Cowboys are having real issues on defense so it is a good job their offence has been playing so well.

The Saints offence has struggled without receiver Michael Thomas who is missing for another week and Drew Brees not looking himself in the passing game. Their loss to the Raiders might be considered surprising but the Packers look to be a force to be reckoned with at the moment so last week’s loss is understandable. However, a trip to the Lions is a good test of how deep the problems for the Saints are. The Lions might be coming off a win but they are still not that convincing and with Alvin Kamara playing well for the Saints they will feel like they should win this game. The line reflects a similar confidence, but I can’t help but feel that things are going to be more complicated than that.

Other things of interest are:

  • I’m not sure why a team with no wins like the Bengals are giving away an extra half point to the, although this line was set early enough that they wouldn’t be aware of Joe Mixon turning up on the injury report.
  • I’m curious to see how well the Dolphins can compete with an explosive Seahawks offence and if they can make a game of it, or if the Seahawks will just keep rolling.
  • The Houston Texans have had a tough start to the season, so to come home and face a fellow struggling team like the Vikings presents an opportunity to turn their season around. The Vikings might be thinking something similar and although I’m not impressed by either team, I can at least see what the Vikings were planning but if the defensive struggles can be understood by the off-season overhaul, the offensive woes might have sunk their season already.
  • The Cardinals stumbled last week, and Kyler Murray had a bad game so it will be interesting to see if they can get back on track this week and keep pushing for the playoffs, or if the Panthers coming off their first win under Matt Rhule can build some momentum.
  • The Buccaneers hosting the Chargers looks to be a game that the Bucs should win. The Bucs defense ranks second in the league by DVOA and with Tom Brady’s experience on the other side of the ball it should be enough to see them past a Chargers team who have been close in every game but have only managed the one actual win.
  • The Ravens will be desperate to bounce back after last week’s loss to the Chiefs, and it is doubtful that Washington will be able to truly compete. They may have the fourth best defense in the league by DVOA, but I doubt they will be able to exert the scoreboard pressure the Chiefs did last week and it could be a very long day for Ron Rivera’s team.

Jaguars @ Bengals (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Browns @ Cowboys (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Saints @ Lions (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Seahawks @ Dolphins (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Vikings @ Texans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Cardinals @ Panthers (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Chargers @ Buccaneers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Ravens @ Washington (+13.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Late Games:

The game that leaps out to me in this matchup is the Buffalo Bills taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. I definitely want to watch this one as I haven’t seen a game at the Raiders new stadium and the Bills have started the season strongly, with Josh Allen looking to have taken another step forward. I think this is a game that the Bills could and possibly should win, but the Raiders have had a strong start themselves so I think this could be a really spectacular game.

The other game that could be competitive is the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Chicago Bears, but to me that depends to what extent Nick Foles can run Matt Nagy’s offence better than Trubisky has done so far this season. The Colts stumbled out of the gates, but have put together two very solid wins so I am curious to see how this game shapes up.

The Rams should have no problems in beating a winless Giants team travelling across the country to face them. It’s always possible for a team to stumble, particularly when both Dan and I have selected them as our survivor pick, but I think it unlikely.

Giants @ Rams (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Bills @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Colts @ Bears (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Sunday Night Football:

Eagles @ 49ers (-6.5)

This is a slightly strange national game given that the 49ers are dealing with a series of injuries but have been good enough to go 2-1 and beat the Giants by a lot last week, whilst the Eagles have really struggled this season having started the season 0-2-1. This might be a trap, particularly as I’ve seen numbers that suggest picking the Eagles, but with them travelling across county to face a better coached team and the Eagles getting under seven points, which is what I’m seeing as the consensus pick I’m grabbing who I think are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Monday Night Football

Falcons @ Packers (-7.5)

This is a tricky game for me as the Packers have been the much better team this season, but the large line and the numbers all tell me to pick the Falcons. I am choosing to trust my process even though I’m exactly even, but the extra half point over seven is a key number so let’s see if the Falcons can at least keep this one close even if they can’t get their first win this season.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Postponed Game

Patriots @ Chiefs (-6.5)

We don’t know right now if this game will be played Monday or Tuesday or if this will become the second game to be postponed this season. The Chiefs were already favourites and the move of Cam Newton to the Covid-19 list only confirms this. If the game goes ahead with a backup quarterback, the Patriots will do well to keep this game competitive. I think that’s possible, but the numbers still give me value with the Chiefs and as the better team I will give them a pick, but we shall have to see if there are more positive tests and if this games even goes ahead.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Four Picks

29 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 4 Picks

I feel frustrated that I didn’t find the time to watch coaching tape again this week, but there is only so much time in a day and we’ll have to see if I can protect my blog time better next week. There is time for me to take another quick run through the picks, but let’s start with this week’s trivia question. We were asked:

‘In how many Super Bowls did the Buffalo Bills appear during the 1990s?
To be clear it if for Super Bowls played between 1.1.1990 and 31.12.1999.
’

For once I am pretty confident about the answer as the Jim Kelly Bills famously lost four straight Super Bowls, and whilst I’m slightly worried that 3D (Dan’s Devious Dad) is trying a sneaky one with the date clarification, I’m sticking with the four that I think were all in the 90s.

As for the theme, I’m still not totally sure but I’m trying that each answer lost their last Super Bowl appearance.

‘I’m completely guessing this week. The very early 90s would have been when they would have had OJ Simpson [OJ played in the 70s so I think Dan is double wrong this week, but in fairness it could be me who is mistaken – Ed.] playing for them, and I think he took them to a Super Bowl so I don’t think the answer is zero. I think I’ll stick with ONE as my answer this week.

No guess on the theme, but I don’t think it’s cleared up enough for Gee to get it either so I’m not too concerned about that!’

One last thing before we get to the pics as I thought this nugget from Dan’s Dad in our group chat was particularly on point regarding picking games:

Screenshot_20190929_083446.jpg

Titans @ Falcons (-4.5)

I do not trust either of these teams as the Tennessee Titans are struggling on offence and the Atlanta Falcons seem to be plain struggling so I don’t see how the Falcons should be favoured by this much.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Patriots @ Bills (+7.5)

The New England Patriots have started the season very strongly and I expect them to win this game but the Pats have picked up some injuries on offence whilst the Bills defence has looked really good (top ten by DVOA good through three weeks) and so I think this game will be more competitive than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 for a reason, their offence isn’t quite clicking and this week they travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens whose offence is very much clicking. The Brown do have the kind of receiving talent that could exploit any break downs in the secondary as the Chiefs did to the Ravens last week, but I don’t see the Ravens having failures like that two weeks in a row and for all his presence in the media, the Browns’ Baker Mayfield is no Patrick Mahomes.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Chiefs @ Lions (+6.5)

The unbeaten Detroit Lions welcome the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs but only one of these teams have tied a game to the 0-3 Cardinals. In fairness the Lions have been pretty solid and the Chiefs have picked up a couple of injuries on offence but whilst I would usually jump on this number of points for a home team, the idea of picking against Patrick Mahomes is making pick the favourite this time round.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Raiders @ Colts (-6.5)

The Oakland Raiders have looked competitive in a couple of games but have not looked good to me and have a lowly DVOA rankings as well as only one win against an even worse Broncos team. This week they take on the Indianapolis Colts who have a very good roster and Jacoby Brissett has done well replacing Andrew Luck so whilst the points give me pause, the Raiders road record seals the pick for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Raiders

Chargers @ Dolphins (+16.5)

The Miami Dolphins #FishTank or roster reboot has certainly been effective at losing them games but there are genuine questions about whether an NFL team has ever really competed for a Super Bowl after going through this process. This week they welcome an LA Chargers team who are struggling with injury (a common occurrence for them it feels) who I expect may well win this game but I fancy this as the Dolphins first cover of the season as this is just too many points for me this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Washington @ Giants (-3.5)

In another universe this may well be a game featuring two rookie quarterbacks but whilst the New York Giants began their new era having got a win with Daniel Jones in his first start, the team from Washington seem to be riven with dysfunction. There are rumours that Dwayne Haskins was an ownership pick rather than one the Jay Gruden believed in, but whatever the case Washington have not looked good. I think the Giants will win at home but I really don’t like the line and whilst the numbers might suggest that Washington is the pick I can’t quite bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Panthers @ Texans (-4.5)

The Carolina Panthers actually looked better last week and got their first win of the season with Kyle Allen playing quarterback, which is more to do with Cam Newton being injured than not being any good, although the Panthers might be concerned about Newton’s long-term health given the number of hits he has taken through his career. This week they travel to take on the 2-1 Houston Texans who are all in for the season but have not truly convinced. The offensive line is still letting Deshaun Watson get hit too much but it’s the middle of the league ranked defence that is surprising. In a game where I don’t really trust either team I’m going to grab the points and this could well be one of the games I watch this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Buccaneers @ Rams (-9.5)

I absolutely hate this line as the LA Rams are the better team but have not exactly looked great this season and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been all over the shop. I love Bruce Arians but he seemed to be making some strange decisions at the end of the game last week and in the process lost to the New York Giants. However, this is a Rams whose defence is top five by DVOA and I don’t trust Jameis Winston at all. This could really come back to bite me, but at home I am going to ignore the numbers and take the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have not looked like a good football team despite Kyler Murray flashing and part of that is Kliff Kingsbury is still trying to find his way in the NFL with his offence. The Cardinals welcome a Seattle Seahawks team whose defence is not up to its usual standards but the offence is ranked fifth in the league by DVOA thanks to some good young receivers and the continued excellence of Russell Wilson and so that is where I am playing my trust.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Vikings @ Bears (-2.5)

The Chicago Bears may have finally got some touchdowns for Mitchell Trubisky last week, but I still don’t trust their offence as they welcome a strong looking Minnesota Vikings team whose defence looks as great as the Bears. There are questions about Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are running the ball a lot on offence so I suspect this game will be competitive with a tight score line. It’s for this reason that I’m grabbing the points, but I would not be surprised if either team won.

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Jaguars @ Broncos (-3.5)

This game could be a trap but I’m going to walk into it anyway. The Denver Broncos have not looked good this season and who would have expected a defence with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb to have no sacks with Vic Fangio has head coach? Meanwhile, for all the nonsense surrounding Jalen Ramsey the Jacksonville Jaguars might have found something on the other side of the ball in rookie Gardiner Minshew II playing quarterback and so whilst Mile High stadium is still a tough place to play I can’t help but pick the Jaguars when I’m getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Cowboys @ Saints (+2.5)

This could well be matchup of the week with the unbeaten Dallas Cowboys taking on the 2-1 New Orleans Saints. I was impressed with the Saints team win against the Seahawks last week and Teddy Bridgewater did enough with a week for Sean Payton to scheme things up. However, the Cowboys have been impressive all season with Dak Prescott thriving in the new offence that sees them currently ranked number one in the league by DVOA. This leads to the strange line where the Saints are underdogs at home, which would be an automatic pick if Drew Brees was playing, but he’s not and the Saints can’t have the same luck as they had last week so I’m laying the points. This could well be another trap…

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-4.5)

What a stunning matchup for Monday night football with two winless teams vying to get themselves their first win – watch this game end in a tie. The Pittsburgh Steelers are somehow laying four and a half points in this one despite the offence looking like it’s missing Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell plus the defence is still struggling. The Cincinnati Bengals don’t rank any better by DVOA but they have been competitive in two of their games and I do think they are a little better than their record would suggest. I’m not saying they will get their first win on the road in Pittsburgh this week, but I like their chances of being within five.

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders‘ statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics on their site.

2018 Week Four Picks

30 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 4 Picks

These are not a nice set of lines as we head into week four of the regular season, but first there’s the matter of our trivia competition:

‘So, now we move onto Week 4 where I want to know Who is Captain Fear and which team does he support?’

I’m going to have to take a complete shot in the dark here and suggest he founded the Black Hole fan group and therefore supports the Oakland Raiders.

‘It’s back to guessing again this week for me, but I think the word ‘Captain’ is the giveaway – I think Captain Fear is the pirate mascot of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.‘

Bengals @ Falcons (-5.5)

This is an important game for the Bengals as they will want to keep the pressure on the Ravens in the AFC North and they will want to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Panthers. They were in the Panthers game until the fourth quarter even if their run defence was bad, but the turnovers weren’t really Dalton’s fault and this week they travel to face an Atlanta team that keep losing starting players. The Falcon’s offence found its scoring mojo in last week’s crazy game with the Saints but the Bengals defence is a very different unit. I’m not definitively predicting the Bengals to win, but I absolutely feel like they will be within six points by the end of the game and I’m hoping for the win.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

‘I actually think Bengals could end up doing pretty well in this one. Not only do I think they’ll cover, I think they’ll win!’

Bills @ Packers (-10.5)

The Green Bay Packers went to Washington and got thumped so I’m a little surprised that they are giving eleven points in this game. I’m not saying that everything is suddenly fixed for the Bills, but they got a tough road win and whilst there could be a let-down, this is too many points for me to give when Aaron Rodgers is not fit and the defence of the Packers is ranked twenty-seventh in the league by DVOA

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

‘This is REALLY difficult to pick. A week ago I’d have said easily Packers, but with that spread, and with their performance last week against the Vikings, I’m going to go with the Bills.’

Buccaneers @ Bears (-2.5)

This is a truly fascinating game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers nearly managed to pull back their Monday night game against the Steelers after a disastrous first half where Ryan Fitzpatrick kept throwing interceptions. Given that he was the first NFL quarterback to throw for four hundred yards in three straight games it feels like he has to come back to earth a little. Particularly against a Chicago Bears defence that currently ranks number one by DVOA and boasts the early candidate for defensive player of the year in Khalil Mack who is making every Raiders fan sad about the strange trade that sent him to the Bears. The problem for the Bears is that as well as Matt Nagy’s offence looks to be schemed, the instinct of Mitch Trubisky is to tuck and run, which right now looks as if it could hold back this team. I’m not confident about this, but in the end I’m going with the quarterback that I have a little more faith in and the thing that he seems to have going with his co-ordinator Todd Monken calling the plays.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

‘Could we see the return of Jameis Winston? Probably not. Buccs win.’

Lions @ Cowboys (-2.5)

This is a fairly straight forward pick to me, which probably means I’m about to get this horribly wrong but the Dallas Cowboys look to be in trouble. The offence just isn’t working as they haven’t replaced either Jason Witten or Dez Bryant and so Dak Prescott is lacking options in the passing game just when the offensive line has some injuries and isn’t the dominant unit it has been in recent season. If things weren’t bad enough, the defence’s talisman Sean Lee is out and so I don’t fancy them at all against a Detroit Lions team who seem to have been improving week to week and who I fancy to get a win on the road in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

‘Fourth game in a row I’m going for the road team! Lions for me in this one.’

Eagles @ Titans (+3.5)

This is very much a strange game to pick given that the Tennessee Titans have won the last two games by a field goal despite the nerve injury that is hampering Marcus Mariota who didn’t even start the last game and they have an overall ranking of twenty-fourth by DVOA. The Philadelphia Eagles are having a difficult start to the season thanks to the injuries they have but at least Carson Wentz is back behind centre. Thanks to the points I’m really undecided about this one so in the end I’m going to grab the points for a home underdog.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

‘Make that 5! The Titans haven’t actually looked as poor as I thought they might after week one, and have won their last couple. That being said, I think the Eagles have a good feel about them and will want to really establish themselves with Wentz back. Eagles win.’

Texans @ Colts (-0.5)

This is a really important game for the 0 – 3 Houston Texans who have really struggled thanks to an offensive line that is not getting the job done and problems in their secondary. This week they travel to face an Indianapolis Colts team who have looked competitive all season as Andrew Luck works his way back from his long term shoulder injury and the defence quietly has improved to just outside the top ten by DVOA through three weeks. I’m trying to balance up the desperation of the Texans to finally get a win vs the clear problems they are having and a line that is giving me no help whatsoever. This is another game I don’t have a hugely strong feel for so I’m going to grab the home team and hope.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Texans

‘Difficult one to call, but I think the Texans will do this.’

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

I find this a curious line because as difficult as it is to see the New England Patriots losing three games in a row there are real problems with both the receiving options and the balance of the offence as well as the defence. The Miami Dolphins however have hugely benefitted from having Ryan Tannehill back from injury and look to have impressive speed on offence whilst the defence has played tough all season and the Dolphins are currently ranked second in the league by DVOA. I’m not saying the Dolphins will definitely win but I they are more likely to be within seven than not.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Miami to win at Gillette Stadium for the first time since 2008.’

Jets @ Jaguars (-7.5)

I am going to resist reading too much into the Jaguars loss last week as divisional games can be funny but they will want to get things back on track this week as they host the New York Jets who have very much struggled since their opening win against the Detroit Lions. I find it hard to predict that Sam Darnold (who is going through the usual rookie difficulties) suddenly having an easier time against the Jaguars defence. The Jets were competitive with a poor roster last season but on the road I see them struggling yet this number of points worries me. However, in the end I can’t quite bring myself to pick them. I may well regret this.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘New York will want to get back to winning ways after losing to the Browns, and while I don’t think they’ll do that this week, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown I wouldn’t have thought.’

Browns @ Raiders (-2.5)

The Cleveland Browns travel to Oakland to seek their first consecutive wins in four years with the Baker Mayfield era definitely started. However, it will be a different test coming in as the starter but Mayfield made such a difference to the way the Browns’ offence operated whilst their defence has been better all year. That said, whilst I don’t exactly trust them, the Browns face a Raiders team who are winless this season but there are signs that the Browns won’t have it all their own way. The Raiders have been competitive for the last two games and having started the season against the juggernaut Rams they have been on the road for those two games as well. The Raiders will be desperate to get their first win and I find it just too hard to predict a Browns win two weeks in a row.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

‘Can’t see the Browns winning this week. The Raiders didn’t look too bad last week and I think they’ve got enough about them to win here.’

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+3.5)

I thought the Arizona Cardinals would have a tough season but they have truly struggled and have now made the move to start rookie quarterback Josh Rosen but he faces an uphill task. That said the Cardinals did manage to get out to a fourteen-point lead last week until they succumbed to a Chicago Bears comeback. However, whilst the Seattle Seahawks have not exactly looked good, they have been competitive and are coming off their first win of the season. I don’t have a strong feel for this game, which has recent years has been a tense close battle between divisional opponents and in the end I’m going to grab the points and not feel confident at all.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

‘Can’t really decide on this one, but seeing as I’ve got to, I’ll go Seattle.’

Saints @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants got their first win last week on the road going against a poor Texans team and this week they welcome a New Orleans Saints team whose offence is top five by DVOA and whose defence is bottom five. There is a big difference for the Saints when Drew Brees is on the road outdoors than in a dome but the bad weather has not truly hit yet and I have so much more faith in the Brees led offence than what Eli Manning is producing at the moment. I might really regret this but I’m backing the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

‘They might have needed overtime to get the win last week against Atlanta, but I think they’ll settle this one fairly comfortably this week. Saints to win.’

49ers @ Chargers (-10.5)

This is a tricky game for me in that yes the San Francisco 49ers have lost Jimmy Garoppolo for the season but I mentally have a picture of the LA Chargers struggling to win games by a lot However, they have managed a win by eleven already this season and totalled five such wins last season and so now I swinging back and forth on this one. In the end this feels like too many points for a team that I don’t entirely trust so I’m reluctantly picking the 49ers to cover against one of the worst home advantages in the league but I’m not convinced.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

‘It’s tempting to pick the 49ers given the 10.5 spread, but I’m going to say LA because the 49ers are a bit broken.’

Ravens @ Steelers (-3.5)

This should be a cracking game that sees the Baltimore Ravens facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in a huge divisional game where the Steelers will be looking to get their second win of the season. The Ravens got back to winning ways last week having paired an improved offence with their traditionally strong defence. I like them to keep this game close and given the issues the Steelers have on defence and how I don’t expect Flacco to turn the ball over with the same rate as Fitzpatrick did on Monday I think this will be a close game and the extra half point has me backing the Ravens to keep this within a field goal if not win.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

‘This could really go either way. I’m going to call Ravens but I won’t be overly surprised if I don’t get this one.’

Chiefs @ Broncos (+5.5)

The Denver Broncos have improved on offence this year but their defence also looks to have taken a step back and as much as they have a good home advantage, particularly early in the season, they face a Kansas City Chiefs team with the best offence in the league right now. Andy Reid will be very comfortable with his trading away of Alex Smith given that Patrick Mahomes has thrown for thirteen touchdowns and no interceptions through the three games of this season. Even with their home advantage the Broncos have not beaten the Chiefs since 2015 but the question is whether they can keep this game with six and that still has me struggling to make up my mind given the Chiefs bottom of the league defence. I expect the Chiefs to win this game but on the road for the third time in four weeks against a divisional opponent I’m nervously going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Week 4 Picks

01 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 4 Picks

Saints @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The week four games kick off with another London game as the Miami Dolphins host the New Orleans Saints. This feels like a hard game to pick with only two games played by the Dolphins where we have seen good Jay Culter and bad Jay Cutler as the Dolphins narrowly beat the Chargers and then lost to the Jets. The Jets… Meanwhile the Saints got off to an 0-2 start before turning things around against the Panthers last week, but their two losses were against the Vikings and a wounded Patriots team.

I’m not hugely confident, but there is a big gap in overall DVOA ranking between these two teams, and with neither of the defences playing well I’m going to back the future Hall of Fame quarterback to get enough points.

Gee’s Pick:            Saints
Dan’s Pick:            Dolphins

Bills @ Falcons (-8.5)

There are a lot lines that Dan and I found very tricky this week, but this was not one of them. That doesn’t necessarily mean that this game will turn out how we suspect, but whilst the Atlanta Falcons have got off to a 3-0 start, the Buffalo Bills have played everyone tough with their defence ranked second by DVOA in the league and so I fancy them to keep this game closer than nine points.

Gee’s Pick:            Bills
Dan’s Pick:            Bills

Bengals @ Browns (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns started the season with hope of demonstrating progress, and they still might, but with both Myles Garrett and Corey Coleman being limited by injuries, it seems the Browns still can’t have nice things. The Cincinnati Bengals meanwhile have got off to a miserable start, but did show some progress against the Packers despite a conservative second half costing them the game. I can see this going wrong, but I think the Bengals get their first win this week as hopefully Bill Lazor continues to improve the offence.

Gee’s Pick:            Bengals
Dan’s Pick:            Bengals

Rams @ Cowboys (-8.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have had a somewhat rocky start to the season, not helped by the fact that they don’t seem to have anything that poses a deep threat in the passing game at the moment. The welcome a LA Rams team who have definitely improved under first year head coach Sean McVay and actually sit atop the NFC West division. I am not sure they have enough to beat the Cowboys on the road, particularly as they are taking on Ezekiel Elliott with the nineteenth ranked rush defence by DVOA, but I do think their offence has enough to keep this game closer than nine points.

Gee’s Pick:            Rams
Dan’s Pick:            Rams

Lions @ Vikings (-2.5)

The Detroit Lions lost a close game, which although it felt horrible with the clock run off deciding the game, the Lions may well have not got another play off in eleven seconds anyway. The Minnesota Vikings got their offensive game plan right last week so Case Keenum could lead them to a big win over the Buccaneers. I like the Vikings’ home advantage in what could be a close game, and the Vikings will be looking to avenge two close losses to the Lions last season.

Gee’s Pick:            Vikings
Dan’s Pick:            Vikings

Titans @ Texans (+1.5)

This is a tricky game for me as the Houston Texans are home underdogs by this line, and yet they have played well on defence, and Deshaun Watson looked to have taken something of a step last week against the Patriots. However, the Tennessee Titans offence played very well against the Seattle Seahawks last week, which gives me hope that they can do it again this week and so with a fair degree of trepidation I’m backing the Titans to win this one for me.

Gee’s Pick:            Titans
Dan’s Pick:            Texans

Panthers @ Patriots (-9.5)

In my experience, I never do well when picking against the New England Patriots, but with their defence really struggling the Patriots never got close to covering the line they were given against the Texans. However, they are facing a Carolina team whose offence has not looked right all year, and who just gave up over thirty points on defence. I shouldn’t be too focused on last week, but I think there is more going wrong with Cam Newton at the moment than facing a bad defence can fix, and so I’m going to double down on the Patriots and see if they reward my faith. I would apologise to fans of the Patriots for my jinx, but I think you’ve probably won enough recently.

Gee’s Pick:            Patriots
Dan’s Pick:            Patriots

Jaguars @ Jets (+3.5)

This has all the appearance of a trap game. The Jacksonville Jaguars just got a huge win against the Baltimore Ravens in London, but they now have to travel to New York to face a Jets team who are 1-0 at home this season and showed us something at last against the Dolphins. However, I don’t think I trust the Jets offence to get anything going against the Jaguars’ defence. I hate this line, and would run a mile if I could but as I have to pick this game I am going to reluctantly pick the Jets. Mainly because I can’t bring myself to back Blake Bortles on the road for two weeks in a row, and just because of the travel the Jaguars have put in over the last week.

Gee’s Pick:            Jets
Dan’s Pick:            Jaguars

Steelers @ Ravens (+2.5)

This is likely going to be a tight game, because these teams so often seem to play close games. The Baltimore Ravens will be desperate to put in a performance after a horrible display in London, and their defence knows what they will be facing in the Pitsburgh Steelers. I think that the Steelers will likely get their offence back on track at some point, and with Ravens’ defensive tackle Brandon Williams missing this week’s game, they may well get running back Le’Veon Bell going. I kind of like the Ravens as home underdogs, and it would not surprise me if they win or cover this line, but they have too many injuries at the moment and I feel like despite their problems, the Steelers are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:            Steelers
Dan’s Pick:            Steelers

Giants @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are beat up on defence, lost to the Vikings last week, and their offence hasn’t found its feet yet this season. The New York Giants lost to a sixty-one yard field goal last week, but found something against the Eagles in the fourth quarter of last week. We are guaranteed one 0-4 team thanks to the Browns and Bengals playing each other, yet it seems unlikely we will have three of them. The Giants are getting healthier at receiver and with that extra half point I’m picking a mini recovery thanks to the banged up defence they are facing.

Gee’s Pick:            Giants
Dan’s Pick:            Giants

Eagles @ Chargers (-0.5)

The LA Chargers have got a real chance to finally get a win, but you can’t have a lot of faith in them as a team at this point. I could regret this as the Philadelphia Eagles were pretty beat up on defence last week, but the Chargers can’t even fill their small temporary stadium and in what amounts to a straight who will win pick, I am going with the team who seems more likely to find a way in a close game.

Gee’s Pick:            Eagles
Dan’s Pick:            Eagles

49ers @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This line seems off to me. The San Francisco 49ers are not a good team, but with David Johnson injured and an offensive line that just isn’t working very well, I have to face up to the fact that Bruce Arians and his coaching team are going to struggle this year. The 49ers got their offence working better against the Rams last week, and whilst that is no guarantee that they will be competitive against the Cardinals, an eight point win is too much for me to pick for this version of the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:            49ers
Dan’s Pick:            49ers

Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5)

The Oakland Raiders got off to a strong start, and I was very impressed with them through two weeks, but they lost heavily to Washington and now travel again to Denver to face the Broncos. The Broncos lost themselves last week, but their defence is formidable at home, and this feels like a bad spot for the Raiders. As long as Trevor Siemian gets back to looking after the ball I think they will be okay, and I have a feeling that the Raiders will fall back to 2-2, although with three road games in the opening four games that is not a bad start.

Gee’s Pick:            Broncos
Dan’s Pick:            Broncos

Colts @ Seahawks (-13.5)

I said on the podcast that I needed a very good reason to pick a team to cover when they are giving a double digit line and the Seattle Seahawks were not that team. The problem with that is as much as I don’t like their offensive line, they did put up twenty-seven points on the Titans last week. I expect the defence to look more like themselves against the Indianapolis Colts, particularly at home, but is this enough for them to cover this line? If Jacoby Brissett can move the ball then the Colts might stand a chance, but as much as I want to pick the Colts to do it, I just can’t bring myself to make the pick on the road.

Gee’s Pick:            Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:            Colts

Washington @ Chiefs (-6.5)

The Monday night game is another trial in difficult picking. The Kansas City Chiefs have played really well this season, and pit their explosive offence up against a Washington team who travelled to Oakland and got a good win. However, Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest in the league and the Chiefs’ explosive offence is a different prospect to the Raiders as they have enough speed that they are a threat to take any play for a big gain or a touchdown. The question is can Washington keep it close enough with an improving defence and an offence that is beginning to find its feet at last. I’m going to go with my first instinct and back Washington to stay within seven points on this one, but I could easily be wrong.

Gee’s Pick:            Washington
Dan’s Pick:            Chiefs

Week Four Picks

02 Sunday Oct 2016

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Colts @ Jaguars (+2.5)

The first International Series game of the season sees the London Jaguars hosting the Colts, and desperately needing the win. There is an argument that the Jags will be more used to the trip to London, which gives them an advantage over the Colts with the travel, but whilst their defence does seemed to have improved, their offence has taken a step back. The Colts defence is not playing well, in fact a lot of their team around Andrew Luck is not coming together, and as a consequence I’m struggling to pick this game, but I trust Andrew Luck more that Blake Bortles for as long as he can stand up to the hits he is taking.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Panthers @ Falcons (+2.5)

The Falcons’ offence is much more balanced this year, with Matt Ryan looking more like the quarterback who used to lead this team to the playoffs regularly. However, the defence is not there yet, and so this game presents a good chance for the Panthers to get their offence right as they visit Atlanta. The injury to Jonathan Stewart is a worry for the Panthers, but the biggest problem for them on offence so far this season is that they have faced the Broncos and Vikings’ defences, which are looking like some of the best in the NFL and so I think that things will look much better for them this week in a game they really need to win to stop their pursuit of the playoffs going off the rails.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bills @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Bills are coming off a win, whilst the Patriots are scrambling to find a healthy quarterback, and so if these were any other pair of teams the pick would be fairly straight forward. However, I have already been bitten twice by picking against Bill Belichick this season, and the Patriots home record is pretty formidable so I’m not prepared to pick against them covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Lions @ Bears (+2.5)

The Lions defence is a worry in this game, but the Bears are struggling on both sides of the ball and I think the Lions will win this game so hopefully this is a straight forward cover. This makes this a prime candidate for me getting it wrong, but I like what the Lions are doing on offence so I’m hanging my hat on that.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Browns @ Washington (-8.5)

I think the Browns are playing tough for Hue Jackson, and I am really not sure that Washington should be giving eight and a half points to anyone, and to prove it I am pick the Browns to cover against a Washington team that are not playing that well.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans have just lost JJ Watt, likely for the season, and are coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to the Patriots in week three. They do have some extra rest from playing in the Thursday night game, but whilst the Titans’ offence is not really coming together how they would like, the defence is playing pretty well and so I’m expecting another close game, certainly close than this line suggests. Whether Bill O’Brien taking over play calling duties on offence has enough of an effect to prove me wrong I don’t know, but I’ll pick on what I have seen so far.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Raiders @ Ravens (-3.5)

This is a tough one to pick as the Baltimore Ravens have quietly gone 3-0 with the defence really coming together, whilst the offence is lagging a little behind due to a combination of new receivers and Joe Flacco coming back from last year’s season ending knee injury. The Raiders offence has looked very good so far this season, in fact it is ranked number one in the league by DVOA, but the defence has struggled. I am really not sure how good either team is with the Ravens going unbeaten against an unimpressive series of teams, whilst the Raiders have gone 2-1 against a similarly uninspiring series of opponents. I’m going to grab the extra half point for the away team, and not feel very happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Seahawks @ Jets (+3.5)

The Seahawks are coming all across the country to play the Jets with an offensive line that has not looked good and an injured Russell Wilson. I have heard some argue that Wilson should be rested a week given how good the Jets front line is and how much the Seahawks rely on their quarterback’s mobility, and I’m not too sure I disagree with them. The Jets offence worries me going against yet another excellent looking Seahawks defence, particularly given the six interceptions Ryan Fitzpatrick threw last week, but in this game at home and getting three and a half points I’m backing the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Broncos @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers’ head coach Dirk Koetter worries me, and even though they are in Tampa Bay, I don’t see the Bucs being able to live with a Bronocs team who’s defence is still up there with any in the league and an a offence that is doing more than last year when they won the Super Bowl.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Cowboys @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cowboys have very possibly lost Dez Bryant for the week with a hair line fracture in his leg, but he has not been a focus for rookie quarterback Dak Prescott so far this season so I’m not sure it is a disaster. They are on the road this week, but I’m not sure that a trip to San Francisco is going to be too hard for them as the 49ers are still rebuilding the roster and every time I have picked them to keep a game close they have failed so I can’t pick them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Rams @ Cardinals (-8.5)

This feels like a real trap game, as somehow the Rams are 2-1 despite a sputtering offence. I am really not so upset by them sitting their first round draft pick, but an offence that has Todd Gurley shouldn’t be ranked thirty-first by DVOA. However, whilst I want to pick the Cardinals as I think they are the better team with an excellent coach, things have not been clicking. Having lost to the Patriots in the opening game of the season, they have only won one more game with Carson Palmer struggling. Their offence has small margin of error on all the deep shots that they take, and I’m not at all confident about them covering this line. However, I do trust Bruce Arians and his staff, and they really need to turn this round to get back into the hunt for the division, but I trust them to win this game rather than cover this line. I’d quite like to be wrong on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Saints @ Chargers (-4.5)

This is a battle of teams featuring excellent quarterbacks and very little else. The Saints defence is horrible again, and it feels like Drew Brees is pressing a little to try to make up for it. The Chargers however keep losing players, and I’m surprised to see them giving this many points. The Saints have only lost one game by five points or more, but I can’t bring myself to pick them in this one, but I do not feel confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Steelers were looking like one of the best teams in the NFL until they lost a surprising game on the road in Philadelphia last week. The defensive is struggling to rush the passer, and the offence was surprisingly ineffective last week despite being pretty terrifying even before getting Le’Veon Bell back like they do this week. The Chiefs are struggling a little on defence to rush the passer as they are missing Justin Houston, but they are a well-coached team whose offence is continuing to play well under Andy Reid. Part of me wants to pick the Steelers as I think their offence is really going to come together now, but this is just too many points to give to a Chiefs team who I think will stay in contention if nothing else.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Giants @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Vikings are surprising everyone with how good their offence is going with Sam Bradford as their quarterback and without Adrian Peterson. Their defence is also playing even better than last year, and their new stadium is incredibly loud. The Giants are a better team than I was expecting, with the defence coming together with their free-agents and the offence developing. However, I have to back the Vikings in this one as I have more faith in what Mike Zimmer is putting together in Minnesota.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

NFL Week 4 Picks Part Two

04 Sunday Oct 2015

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Jets @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The first London game of the year sees the 0-3 (edit – as Dan has pointed out, the Dolphins are in fact 1-2, it just feels like 0-3!) Dolphins as the home team. It has been a horrible start to the year for a team that most of us were tipping to make a push for the playoffs in the offseason. However, I wrote that the winners of the offseason are frequently a let down when it comes time to play the games, and this has certainly been the case so far. Despite the expensive addition of Suh that was expected to turn around the defensive line, but in fact this unit seems to have continued its bad play from the end of last season and so there is more to worry about that Suh’s six tackles and absence of sacks. The struggles the Dolphins are having on offence is less of a surprise to me, although I wasn’t expecting it to be so pronounced, but I did notice through both free agency and the draft that the Dolphins front office hadn’t addressed the offensive line that was not good last season so it should not be a surprise that they can’t run the ball this year and are not exactly protecting Tannehill very effectively. Given that I am sure Joe Philburn kept his job more because they wanted to give Tannehill a second year under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor after the improvements he made last season, Philburn will have to turn things round very quickly if he wants to keep his job.

With all of that said, the Jets are probably not the team that you would want to see this week. Their already good front seven now has a secondary worthy of it and first year head coach Todd Bowles has moulded them into an effective unit. They may have lost last week with one of the most Jets-like plays they’ve had in a while (what Brandon Marshall was thinking when he attempted that lateral pass I do not know, I suspect he hasn’t’ been watching the rugby world cup), but they have been solid so far. They will need Ryan Fitzpatrick to protect the ball better than he did against he Eagles as this team can’t win if he throws three touchdowns, but if the offence can run the ball and control the turnovers like they did in the first two game, then with their defence the Jets are going to be a tough team for any team to face.

I think this is a case of the wrong team at the wrong time for the Dolphins, and whilst I hope I’m wrong as Dan is going to Wembley with a Jets fan, I fear this is not going to be his favourite trip to Wembley.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Texans @ Falcons (-6.5)

The Falcons have got off to a strong start to the year, making a case to be considered one of the best teams in the NFC. Their defence is improved under first year head coach Dann Quinn from a unit that finished 2014 at the bottom of the Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and whilst they may not exactly be intimidating they are doing enough to keep the team in the games. Meanwhile, the offence is flying with Julio Jones demonstrating his extraordinary talents in every game, and the stirrings of a running game.

This week they welcome a Texans team that just don’t appear to be very good. They have some very good individuals on defence, but it is not quite gelling yet, but of that has to be the stuggles on offence. The Texans cannot get their running game going, and are still waiting for Arian Foster to come back from his pre-season groin injury, whilst their quarterback play has been suspect so the only player who has caught the eye has been DeAndre Hopkins. It could be that the Texans are picking a high round quarterback in next year’s draft if they don’t turn around their season.

I do not think the Texans have the offence to keep up with a soaring Falcons on the road, and I don’t think they will be able to cover here.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Gaints @ Bills (-5.5)

The Bills bounced back from a horrible loss to the Patriots with an incredibly sound beating of the Dolphins. Their defence returned to their aggressive selves, stifling the Dolphins whilst the offence racked up over four hundred yards. If Tyrod Taylor can protect the ball in his first season as a starter then there is a good chance the Bills can be in contentions for the playoffs at the end of the season.

The Giants got the win last week, but their offence has to become more efficient in their opponents half for them to win consistently. They kicked far too many field goals last week, and the fact that they hosted a number of receivers for workouts this week indicates that they are not happy with their depth at receiver. The defence stood up to Washington’s run game last week, but there was very little pass rush and their only sack came on a six man blitz and a lot of their other pressure was more situational as Washington was forced to throw to get back into the game.

It will be interesting to see if the Bills can establish the run in this game, but I have a feeling that it is going to be a long day for Eli Manning against the Bills defence and so I’m backing the Bills to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Raiders @ Bears (+2.5)

It would appear that the Bears are already giving up on this season, with trades of both Jared Allen and Jon Bostic for draft picks echoing baseball’s tradition of selling players when it’s time to rebuild. They managed to avoid turnovers on offfence, with ten punts and no points as they were shut out by the Seahawks. There are very few bright spots for this team and they will be picking very early at the next draft.

This week the Bears welcome a Raiders team who broke their road losing streak in Cleveland, and who are clearly on the rise. The burgeoning partnership between Derek Carr and Amari Cooper is already beginning to look how the Raiders would have hoped when they drafted Cooper back in April, and Khalil Mack got his first sacks of the year from his new position of defensive end.

It still feels slightly surreal to be doing this, but I am actually going to back the Raiders to get a second win on the road against the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals continue to make me hopeful despite some questionable tackling at times on defence, but Andy Dalton led the comeback when I was getting nervous, and AJ Green had a monster game. If the defence can continue to hold up and the offence stays looking this good then Bengals might do more than just get their first playoff win in an eternity, but before we get ahead of ourselves, they are about to start a nasty stretch of games welcoming the Chiefs and the Seahawks before visiting the Bills and Steelers. There are worse road games to come, but the Bengals need to win enough of these games to stay atop the AFC North, however starting the season with two away wins help.

I think the Chiefs are better than their 1-2 record suggests. They have one of the game’s best running backs in Jamaal Charles, and a tremendous pair of pass rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Those pass rusher though did not help them against an otherworldly Aaron Rodgers as their secondary couldn’t keep do enough to slow the Packers down. Meanwhile, although Alex Smith is a very solid quarterback, he is not going to get you multiple explosive plays.

I am worried about this game, the Chiefs are a solid team and I really respect their pass rush. I’m hoping that a combination of the Bengals’ good offensive line can hold up to give Andy Dalton time to find the myriad of players he has available to him, and that the defence can bottle up Charles but they will have to tackle better. Still, I am hopeful in this game, and the Bengals have been very solid at home in recent season so I will nervously back them to go 4-0.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Jags @ Colts (-9.5)

The Colts finally got a win last week in a very up and down game against the Titans. They were 14-0 up in the second quarter, 14-27 down in the third quarter, before finally running out 35-33 winners after the Titans failed a two point conversion. The changes to their offensive line helped them establish a rung game with Frank Gore getting a pair of rushing touchdowns and eighty-six yards, but Andrew Luck still threw two interceptions, and was sacked three times. Their defence also gave up over four hundred yards, so whilst the away divisional win was important for them, I’m not sure how many of their problems were truly fixed given that it mostly surrounds the talent on the roster and what is going on with the front office.

However, if you are trying to sort out a team, then playing two of your AFC South rivals back to back might not be the worst thing to do. The Jaguars are still missing a lot of players, and there are still a lot of questions about Blake Bortles, but at least Allen Robinson is back this season and managed a bit play against the Patriots, but they really weren’t ready to compete in that game.

I really think that this is too many points for the Colts to be getting against the Jags, but I can’t bring myself to risk the Jaguars on the road again so I’m reluctantly backing the Colts to break even thanks to the state of the division they play in.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Eagles @ Washington (+3.5)

Washington started the season looking solid against a Dolphins team that we now know are struggling, got a win against the Rams, but struggled against the Giants away on the Thursday night. The limitations of Kirk Cousins really showed themselves last week, and if Washington can’t establish their running game, or get behind then I think they will really struggle on offence. Their defence line has improved and they have been stouter against the run so far this season, but they are still suspect in the pass game, and losing DeAngelo Hall for a few weeks will not helpt.

The Eagles finally got their first win last week, and it is a sign of the state of the NFC East that they by no means out of the running to win the division, but they still need to improve. On offence Sam Bradford still does not look comfortable, and the lack of a receiver that can get themselves open without the scheme is causing issues, but more worrying is the problems they are having running the ball as that is what Chip Kelly’s offence is predicated on. They did better against the Jets, but their line still doesn’t seem to be playing that well and it will be interesting to see what they can do in Washington. Their defence front has looked pretty good so far this season, but their secondary is asked to do a lot of singe man coverage, and has not held up well until last week. They were however facing a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who can be streaky, but given they are facing Cousins this week, this might be another week where they improve.

There are still problems with the Eagles, and there are a few moves in the offseason that Kelly made that worried me, but they have their first and things may be coming round. This might be a bad pick given that they are on the road, but Washington are not as good as the Jets and so I fancy Eagles to get back to 2-2 from their shaky start.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers bumped back down to 1-2 against the Texans last week as they continue to go through the growing pains of having a rookie quarterback. It is too early to tell how he will in the long run, but they were shut out in the second half and continue to struggle, The defence also seems to be up and down, only generating one turn over last week, and it does appear to be another long year in Tampa.

The Panthers are a limited team on offence, but are good on defence despite missing the great linebacker Luke Kuechly to concussion, and have made the best of a run of winnable games to remain unbeaten. Their offence has centred around Cam Newton and his ability to run as well as pass, with Greg Olson living up to the billing of number one receiver that was enforced by the injury to Kelvin Benjamin.

We will know more about the Panthers later in the season when they have to face the likes of the Seattle and Green Bay, but this week I think they will have more than enough to take care of the Bucs on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Browns @ Chargers (-7.5)

The Chargers have struggled after a promising opening game, and got thoroughly beaten on the road to the Vikings last week. The suspension to Antonio Gates isn’t helping, but more worrying was the pressure the Vikings got with four sacks and thirteen quarterback hits. The offence is the dominant side of the ball for this team, and they will need to do a better job of protecting Philip Rivers if they are to get back to winning ways as their defence has been struggling, and is currently ranked twenty-third by DVOA.

The Browns are a hard team to read, with a defensive head coach that only has his team ranked in the mid-twenties, questions at quarterback, and problems with their skill players. An NFL head coach has to win as many games as possible, but I’m not sure what the Browns are gaining by playing Josh McCown at his age when they really need to find out if they have something in Johnny Manziel. I suspect not, but they are not going to find out with him holding a clipboard on the sideline, and whilst they came back late to make the score look respectable, they seem to be holding station with how they finished the season last year, whilst the Raiders team they were playing are on the rise.

I am very much worried by the points, but I do not trust the Browns travelling to the west coast and playing a team that if nothing else, has an elite quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Vikings @ Broncos (-6.5)

I am trying to resist the boom and bust reaction that Peyton manning is generating after every game the Broncos play, but he at least more comfortable as the Broncos settled into a more familiar offence for him. The questions will remain about his arm because he is thirty-nine and he was never the most physically gifted of quarterbacks, but he was always so smart and still has enough to be effective in bursts and that is all this team needs to win at the moment. Their defence is playing so well that Broncos are 3-0 despite the bumpy start they have had on offence, and as long as the Broncos can keep this formula going they will win more games than not.

The Vikings had a very good win last week, with their defence looking very good as they got so much pressure and Adrian Peterson is beginning to look much more like himself. The Vikings are now getting him the number of touches he needs, and he appears to have shaken off the rust that was holding back in the first couple of games. With Mike Zimmer’s double a gap pressure, there is a distinct possibility that the Vikings have the tools to really exploit the problems the Broncos on offence as although Peyton has always been exceptional against the blitz, the Broncos line has been questionable at guard and I have a feeling that the Vikings could well exploit this.

With the Broncos defence playing as well as it is, and Teddy Bridgewater not yet convincing, you can see the Broncos committing to stifling Peterson in the run game and daring Bridgewater to beat them with his arm. However, whilst the Vikings may well struggle on offence, I have a feeling that this good young defence is going to cause the Broncos problems, and I see a close game that is nip and tuck. I often get stung by road underdogs with lines in this range, but that’s not going to stop me from backing the Vikings to get a sneaky cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Packers @ 49ers (+9.5)

There isn’t so much to write about in this game. In Jim Tomsula they have a head coach who will keep the team unified, but they simply lost too much top level talent in the offseason and Colin Kaepernick has not developed as a quarterback and threw a pair of pick sixes to start the game, and finished with four interceptions and a grand total of sixty-seven yards.

The Packers on the other hand have a quarterback who is otherworldly, matching his physical skills to his experience and a great understanding of the game. They have not missed a beat despite losing their top receiver in the preseason, and their defence is doing enough, although there do still look like they are weak against the run.

I can only see this game going one way, even if Rodgers is not quite as good on the road as he is in Green Bay.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Rams @ Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals have got off to a great start to the season, and whilst they may not have faced the cream of the NFL, they have won in a convincing fashion against the teams put in front of them. Carson Palmer has looked excellent whilst Larry Fitzgerald has excelled in the slot and leads the team in both yards and touchdowns. Their defence has also looked good, and should have more than enough to cope with a Rams team that once again looks challenged on offence.

The Rams seem to be having the same season again. They have the scary front seven on defence, an offence that isn’t quite working, and they will play some teams tough whilst generally losing. They were unable to beat a Steelers team despite knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game, and I worry about their ability to generate offence.

This is one of those games where I could regret picking against the Rams as they always have the ability to generate a surprise in a divisional game, but I don’t expect them to have enough to cope with a soaring Cardinals team on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Caridnals

Cowboys @ Saints (-4.5)

This is likely a matchup of backup quarterbacks, and superficially Luke McCown didn’t look too bad for the Saints as he completed thirty-one of thirty-eight passes for over three hundred yards, but he didn’t throw any touchdowns and did throw a pick. More worrying for the Saints, there appears to be no turn around on their defence, which was bad last season and doesn’t appear to have improved this one. Gone are the days when the Saints dominated at home and so you worry about them in this game.

The Cowboys really struggled in this game, with the absence of Dez Bryant really causing a lot of their problems as the Falcons were able to stack the line against the run as they didn’t fear Brandon Weedon exposing them in the passing game. If you look at the Football Outsiders defensive rankings, you well expect the Cowboys to have similar problems this week against the Saints, except the Falcons are trending up on defence, and I really have no confidence in Rob Ryan’s unit.

This is another of those games that is hard to pick, but I really don’t like the Saints, particularly with Drew Brees either sat on the bench or playing with his rotator cuff issues.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks looked much more like themselves last week on defence, despite Kam Chancellor playing limited as he makes his way back to game shape, but going against the Bears in their current state will help you. However, the Lions have not looked good so far on offence so you can see the Seahawks defence’s improvement to continue this weekend. The offence however still worries me, Marshawn Lynch doesn’t look like himself, although we don’t know if this is age catching up with the running back, or the state of Seattle’s offensive line, but either way they are not running the ball as in season’s pass. Nor do they seem to be turning around a passing game that has not historically been that high powered, although Jimmy Graham did get more touches and a touchdown last week.

The Lions have had an awful start to the season. On offence Matthew Stafford has had rib issues, which perhaps is not surprising given that their line doesn’t appear to have improved. They are not running the ball well, and it is not often that you hear a player tell the media that the opposition knew their plays as Golden Tate did this week. If this weren’t bad enough, the defence has also struggled to find their way, not helped by losing their outstanding coverage linebacker DeAndre Levy on top of the rest of the turmoil this unit had in the offseason we the high profile shake up on the line.

The Lions really seem to have hit a wall following last season, and I can’t see them going into Seattle and turning this round against a Seahawks team who really need to get themselves back in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

NFL Week 4 Picks Part 1

01 Thursday Oct 2015

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Dan has been a model of consistency so far this season, going 8-8 each week whilst I’ve been up and down so if we follow the same patterns I should be about to have a horrible week and end up level with Dan again. Week three saw less upsets, and some teams without wins begin to turn things round so let’s get started with the upcoming Thursday night game, with the rest to follow in the next couple of days.

Gee:    Week 3   10-6              Overall   26-22

Dan:    Week 3   8-8                Overall   24-24

Ravens @ Steelers (+2.5)

The headline news for the Steelers was not their win against the Rams, but that what looked like a nasty injury to Ben Roethlisberger is in fact a sprained MCL so he is gone for a few weeks rather than the season. Looking forward the question is whether Michael Vick can keep the Steelers in the hunt for the playoffs until Roethlisberger can get back, and this is a big question as it as it has been a while since Michael Vick has looked like a starting quarterback. However, if Le’Veon Bell can keep totting up the one hundred thirty total yard games, and Antonio Brown remains in the discussion as one of the best receivers in the game then they have a chance, but the defence has to hold up to keep them in it.

The Ravens nearly got themselves a win, and are surely one of the best 0-3 teams in recent years. The problem is that they are not rushing the passer and their secondary isn’t holding up their end on defence, whilst on offence they suddenly can’t run the ball. This surely must be system related as the o-line and running backs are pretty much the same, but whatever the cause it needs fixing in a hurry. The real bright spark last week was Steve Smiths’ one hundred and eighty-six yards and two touchdowns, which included one catch down the sideline on fourth and two, threw off one defender and ran the ball in for a fifty yard touchdown when he really should have been tackled. In previous years they might have got the comeback, but against this year’s Bengals they weren’t able to cover the receivers and Dalton didn’t fall apart.

This is a really hard game for me to pick because I don’t trust Michael Vick as a starter, there have been ball security issues in recent seasons and he lost the ball once coming in for Roethlisberger against the Rams. Equally, the Steelers have a lot more talent on offence at the moment, and whilst I find it hard to believe that the Ravens will go 0-4, I have this feeling that the Steelers might just sneak it and they’re getting points at home. I could well regret this, but until somebody other than Steve Smith shows up for the Ravens, I’m backing the Steelers even with their backup quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

NFl Week 4: Giants @ Washington Recap

28 Sunday Sep 2014

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Antrel Rolle, Brian Orakpo, Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins, New York Giants, NFL, Washington, Week 4 Picks

We’ve had series of big wins for the home team in the Thursday night games this season, so this week we turned it around, but sadly only so we got a big win for the away team. My focus for Washington was to be Brian Orakpo and Richard Griffin, but with RG3’s injury, I’ve swapped it to his backup Kirk Cousins who is now the starter. For the Giants I wanted to take a look at Eli Manning and see how he is settling into the new offence, and Antrel Rolle at safety who went to the Pro Bowl last season.

The headline for this game has been the four interceptions for Kirk Cousins and the good day for Eli Manning, there are other things that that need writing, but I might as well start there.

Kirk Cousins didn’t actually play too badly in the first half. I liked the use of play action in the passing game, but the warning signs were already beginning to show themselves. Washington’s first drive ended on sack of Cousins, who fumbled the ball, handing the Giants excellent field position from which they scored. Both sides then failed to get a first down on their next drives, Washington fails to get a first down again, before the Giants and then Washington have touchdown drives. The lone touchdown pass for Cousins to Andre Roberts came off play action and was the last time that Washington were within a touchdown of the Giants. On the next series, Cousins lofted a deep pass that led Niles Paul into a pair of receivers and a concussion. The drive ended when he completed a pass to Logan Paulsen, who then fumbled the ball. As I said, I liked the play action passes and Cousins looked good completing to his backs and tight ends, but there were some inaccurate throws mixed in.

The meltdown came in the second half trying to get his team back in the game, but the interceptions were not good passes. Having successfully led his team to a touchdown on their first drive, Cousins threw his first interception on the next one. His receiver was not open, but what made it worse was that Cousins placed his throw to the inside of Ryan Grant, giving a simple interception to corner Prince Amukamara. He might have gotten away with this, when on the following Giant’s drive a diving Brandon Meriwether jarred the ball lose in the end zone, that popped up for an interception, but on the second play of the ensuing drive, Cousins overthrew Pierre Garcon and safety Quintin Demps made a nice play to get across from his deep position and make the interception. With good field position, Eli Manning wasted no time in getting a touchdown in four plays. On the following drive Washington fails to get a first down, but then so does the Giants. However, again on the second play of the drive, Cousins drops back with three receivers to his right, hits his back foot and throws the ball into zone coverage, and directly to Mathias Kiwanuka. This again gives Eli Manning a short field and he wastes no time in scoring another touchdown. However, on the next drive Cousins throws his final interception, when he can’t step into his throw as left guard Josh LeRibeus gets knocked over resulting in Giants pressure, an underthrown ball, and an interception to Antrel Rolle. This was a horrible half of football, and whilst it is far too early to write him off, Washington and Cousins can’t afford to have too many more performances like this.

So whilst Kirk Cousins had a nightmare, Eli Manning had four touchdown passes, a touchdown run and three hundred yards passing. He looked in control of the offence, settling into the new system, and making good use of tight end Larry Donnell who looked really good as he caught three touchdown passes. There’s no doubt that Eli benefitted from good field position, and there were a few more three and out drives than the Giant’s would have liked, but he definitely looks like he could thrive in the new offence, and talk of his demise has been a bit premature.

The other thing that helped Eli Manning look so good was a well ranked defence that I was not that impressed with in this game. The secondary seemed soft in coverage all day, and there were a lot of diving attempts at tackles without wrapping up. I was pretty disappointed with Brian Orakpo, who managed no sacks, very little pressure and only two tackles. He seemed to be completely controlled by Will Beatty, and whilst I don’t know if this was just a bad day, he’ll need to do a lot better if he’s to get the big contract he will want next season.

On defence for the Giants, Antrel Rolle looked good without standing out to me. On the interception, I wonder whether if Cousins was able to step into the throw, DeSean Jackson was not past Rolle and gone for a big play. I also saw him miss a tackle when Alfred Morris stepped round him and he was flat out run on a pass play by Roy Helu, but he was round the play and I could very well be nit picking. I need to spend more time watching safeties to be sure.

In conclusion, this was a very solid win for the Giants and casts more question about Washington than just the play of Kirk Cousins. I said the Giants were improving when I picked against them, but they were definitely better than I expected and I am now worried about how Washington are going to be going forward. For now, only time will tell.

NFL Week 4 Picks

25 Thursday Sep 2014

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Last week I returned to respectability, going 8-8 despite missing out on two games by only half a point. Unfortunately, due to these two games and me underestimating the Bears, I’ve dropped a game behind Dan in our competition so I will have to redouble my efforts or he’s going to win the blog from me. You may notice some more stats from the Football Outsiders creeping in, although it will be another week until their DVOA stat starts including the adjustments for opponents, so I’ll be using their modified DAVE stat overall ranking as this includes adjustments for preseason/early season comparison, alongside their DVOA stats for offence, defence and special teams. As well as these advanced stats I’ll be using traditional stats, blind luck, observation, and reading the entrails of a ritually slaughtered Steelers fan.

Gee:     Week 3   8-8                Overall   21-27
Dan:     Week 3   9-7                Overall   22-26

Giants @ Washington (-3.5)

So the Thursday night game this week is between two teams that I picked wrong last week. The Giants beat the Texans pretty convincingly, with Eli having a very solid day gaining 234 yards from 21 completions out of 28 attempts, two touchdowns and no interceptions, a running game that gouged the Texans for 176 yards by Rashad Jennings, and the Texans giving the ball away four times. I don’t feel too bad about not seeing this turnaround coming for the Giants, but the Texans were on the road for a second straight week and I might have got carried away by how good JJ Watt is. However, although I had mentioned that Kirk Cousins looked more comfortable as a drop back passer than RG3, I hadn’t realised how much better their offence seemed to run. They only narrowly lost to the 3-0 Eagles, have the third ranked defence according to DVOA, and I think they are going to be too much to handle for an improving Giants team.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dan’s Comments: – I’ve changed my mind twice on this one. Giants looked pretty good against the Texans (who themselves were strong in weeks 1 and 2), so I’m going to go with them.

Bills @ Texans (-2.5)

The Bills are ranked ninth overall by the DAVE stat; and are ninth on offence, eleventh on defence, and second on special teams by DVOA. They lost to a good Chargers team last week as I thought they would, but they have made themselves a real contender in the AFC East. I’m still worried about EJ Manuel and whilst they look like they might improve on last year’s 6-10 record, it is early and the Bills have a recent history that doesn’t inspire confidence. Not only did the Texans lose last week, but their defence gave up 193 yards on the ground and Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions. It has been a feature of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career that every few games he has a stinker, and so I’m not expecting a repeat performance, but for me the Bills have the edge in this one. And I’m getting points!

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Back to winning ways this week for the Texans

Packers @ Bears (+0.5)

I’m not sure if Aaron Rodgers telling fans to relax will help or not, but I don’t think that he is particularly to blame here. The o-line hasn’t being playing great and as a result the offence is not firing on all cylinders, and whilst I don’t think they will necessarily stay ranked twenty-first as they currently are, for me this is where their problem lies. This is interesting as I expected the defence to be the issue, but at eighteenth by DVOA, the defence should be good enough for them to win if their offence was playing up to expectations, so it all depends on if they can turn things around on offence. This should be good news as the Bears defence was the worry in preseason, however they’ve been holding up surprising well so far. There are questions about their run defence, but I’m not sure that the Packers as currently constituted are the team to take advantage of this. I think this is going to be a close game but I fancy the Bears to win at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Dan’s Comments: – This always makes for a good game. Packers by a touchdown for me.

Lions @ Jets (+1.5)

This is the first game the Dan and I agree on. The Lions had a really good win against the Packers last week, are looking more disciplined and won with defence. It must be hard to lose Stephen Tulloch to the year with a torn ACL that he sustained celebrating a sack, but they are ranked second in defence by DVOA, and linebacker DeAndre Levy is really making a name for himself with his good play. The Jets are still playing well on defence and Geno Smith has improved from last year, but I have the feeling that the Lions are good and the Jets are not going to be good enough to win this one, even if they are at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Dan’s Comments: – Easiest pick this week!

Titans @ Colts (-7.5)

The Titans did not have a good day against the Bengals, and the early talk of Jake Locker improving has cooled after he threw two interceptions last week. I don’t know if they have anything they can hang their hat on as an identity, Jake Locker is on the injury list, and so I don’t think they’re going to be winning this one. The Colts came out last week and did what they needed to in beating a poor Jaguars team. We expect Andrew Luck to be good, but even Trent Richardson showed something last week and having finally got their first win of the season, I think they will beat the Titans at home. I’m a little worried about the points, but I think they will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Dan’s Comments: – This will be a close one, so I’m taking the points.

Dolphins @ Raiders (+4.5)

This is the first of the international series games being played at Wembley this year. The Dolphins beat a Patriots team that look like they’re struggling in week 1 and then have lost against the Bills and Chiefs. Their coach has not exactly been backing their young quarterback, and whilst the Raiders are already over in the U.K., the Dolphins are not flying in until Friday. I don’t like this strategy for travelling and I hate the approach to the quarterback question. Tannehill has only had three games with a new coordinator and it’s much too early to be making a judgement about him. I also don’t like that there are reports that the players on defence hated the game plan against the Chiefs. This does not strike me as a well run football team. The Raiders are 0-3, lost against the misfiring Patriots, and so they are rightly underdogs against the Dolphins on a neutral site. But their performance improved last week, and I just have a feeling about them. I could regret this, although I don’t want Dan to watch his team lose live at the stadium, but I think the game is going the wrong way for him in London this weekend.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: – A good day in London for the Dolphins (I wonder how much of it I’ll remember on Monday morning!)

Buccaneers @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Buccaneers were awful last week. You hope they have a chip on their shoulder after being humiliated on nationally televised game last week, but there is a lot of work for Lovie Smith to do. I thought that Mike Glennon looked better than the injured Josh McCown last week, and so that might help, but I’m not sure when they might pick up a win. The odds say they don’t lose every game this year, but looking down their schedule I don’t fancy them against anyone. The Steelers got an impressive win against the Panthers last week, and Le’Veon Bell is looking really good. The banged up linebacker group worries me and I still think they might be a step behind the Ravens in the division, but the AFC North once again looks to be one of the tougher divisions in the NFL and I’m happy that the Steelers will beat the spread in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comments: – Even with the spread, I can’t see anything other than a Steelers win this week.

Panthers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Steve Smith has been heavily featured by the Ravens and is playing well as they welcome his former team to M&T Bank stadium. The Ravens have done pretty well on the field this year, but losing Dennis Pitta to a second dislocated hip could cause them problems. However, Owen Daniels looked good when I saw him and knows the system and the defence is good so I think the Ravens will continue to do okay. The Panthers really got gouged in the running game last week against the Steelers, and whilst they look much better than some of us were expecting, they just lost to a team that got beaten by Ravens pretty handily. I’m not worried about the Browns running the Ravens close last week as I think they’re going to do that to a lot of teams and I’m taking the Ravens despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Dan’s Comments: – Another close one, but I think there’ll be more than a field goal in it.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-13.5)

The Jaguars are bad, and it’s going to take double digit points for me to pick them again this year unless they show me something. I still stand by my week one pick, but we know more now and I don’t see the Chargers having a problem continuing their good start to the season this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Dan’s Comments: – The Jags (despite being 0-3 so far!) are a team on the up. They’ll still lose, but not by 2 touchdowns.

Falcons @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Teddy Bridgewater era starts in Minnesota and I think in the long term he is going to be good, but losing Peterson has hurt this offence and the line doesn’t seem to be playing that well either. I think the defence will be okay under Zimmer, but it’s going to be a long season. We shouldn’t overreact to the Falcons performance against the Bucs last week, but they are good on offence, and I think they will have too much for the Vikings, even away from home.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Dan’s Comments: – OK, I changed my mind – this is the easiest pick.

Eagles @ 49ers (-5.5)

I think the 49ers are in the same place as I did last week, their depth is being tested and whilst I don’t think they’re bad, the defence is really struggling (twenty-first in DVOA) and indiscipline is costing them too. I wasn’t surprised at their loss last week to a Cardinals team that I think are going to keep contending this season (as ever, health permitting) and I am a little surprised that they’re getting so many points, even at home. The Eagles are 3-0 but I did love the line on the Grantland NLF Podcast, “…Sports sciene 0, regression to the mean 1,” when talking about their injuries. I think they’re the better team in this game, and whilst it’s definitely possible that this game could be one they lose, I don’t see them getting beaten by six points.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Dan’s Comments: – Eagles to continue their run this week. Philly win.

Saints @ Cowboys (+3.5)

The Cowboys got a win last week, but before we get ahead of ourselves, it was against the Rams who are really struggling. The running game helped them counter the back issues that still seem to be affecting Tony Romo’s game, and they certainly the offensive line to do it. Their defence did enough, but I don’t know if it will be able to cope in this game. The Saints were meant to be challengers for the Super Bowl this year, but their defence isn’t living up to last year’s improvement and their offence has been surprisingly out of sync, or at least that is the narrative I’ve heard, but by DVOA they are ranked number one. They are moving from one dome to another, so I don’t think there woes on the road will be as pronounced as some expect and I see them following up their first win with a second against the Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Dan’s Comments: – I picked Cowboys the last 2 weeks, but I think they’ll struggle this week.

Patriots @ Chiefs (+3.5)

The Patriots seem to have undergone a switch in identity with their defence ranked number one by DVOA and an offence that is struggling. Their offensive line is not giving Tom Brady the protection he is used to, and there are signs that father time is catching up with one of the all time greats. In fairness, if you look at the weapons he has to work with now, compared to a few years ago, this is not perhaps surprising but it also something that isn’t going to change any time soon. I liked the Chiefs going into the season, and whilst I thought they would regress this year, I didn’t expect this. They beat the Dolphins last week, but I think the Patriots and the Dolphins are heading in different directions and I can’t see the Patriots losing on Monday night football. That’s a really bad reason to pick a team but I’m going with it for now.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Dan’s Comments: –  While they beat the Dolphins this week, I wouldn’t say they were particularly good, and I can’t see them being too close to the Patriots this week.

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