Colts @ Jaguars (+2.5)

The first International Series game of the season sees the London Jaguars hosting the Colts, and desperately needing the win. There is an argument that the Jags will be more used to the trip to London, which gives them an advantage over the Colts with the travel, but whilst their defence does seemed to have improved, their offence has taken a step back. The Colts defence is not playing well, in fact a lot of their team around Andrew Luck is not coming together, and as a consequence I’m struggling to pick this game, but I trust Andrew Luck more that Blake Bortles for as long as he can stand up to the hits he is taking.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Panthers @ Falcons (+2.5)

The Falcons’ offence is much more balanced this year, with Matt Ryan looking more like the quarterback who used to lead this team to the playoffs regularly. However, the defence is not there yet, and so this game presents a good chance for the Panthers to get their offence right as they visit Atlanta. The injury to Jonathan Stewart is a worry for the Panthers, but the biggest problem for them on offence so far this season is that they have faced the Broncos and Vikings’ defences, which are looking like some of the best in the NFL and so I think that things will look much better for them this week in a game they really need to win to stop their pursuit of the playoffs going off the rails.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bills @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Bills are coming off a win, whilst the Patriots are scrambling to find a healthy quarterback, and so if these were any other pair of teams the pick would be fairly straight forward. However, I have already been bitten twice by picking against Bill Belichick this season, and the Patriots home record is pretty formidable so I’m not prepared to pick against them covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Lions @ Bears (+2.5)

The Lions defence is a worry in this game, but the Bears are struggling on both sides of the ball and I think the Lions will win this game so hopefully this is a straight forward cover. This makes this a prime candidate for me getting it wrong, but I like what the Lions are doing on offence so I’m hanging my hat on that.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Browns @ Washington (-8.5)

I think the Browns are playing tough for Hue Jackson, and I am really not sure that Washington should be giving eight and a half points to anyone, and to prove it I am pick the Browns to cover against a Washington team that are not playing that well.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans have just lost JJ Watt, likely for the season, and are coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to the Patriots in week three. They do have some extra rest from playing in the Thursday night game, but whilst the Titans’ offence is not really coming together how they would like, the defence is playing pretty well and so I’m expecting another close game, certainly close than this line suggests. Whether Bill O’Brien taking over play calling duties on offence has enough of an effect to prove me wrong I don’t know, but I’ll pick on what I have seen so far.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Raiders @ Ravens (-3.5)

This is a tough one to pick as the Baltimore Ravens have quietly gone 3-0 with the defence really coming together, whilst the offence is lagging a little behind due to a combination of new receivers and Joe Flacco coming back from last year’s season ending knee injury. The Raiders offence has looked very good so far this season, in fact it is ranked number one in the league by DVOA, but the defence has struggled. I am really not sure how good either team is with the Ravens going unbeaten against an unimpressive series of teams, whilst the Raiders have gone 2-1 against a similarly uninspiring series of opponents. I’m going to grab the extra half point for the away team, and not feel very happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Seahawks @ Jets (+3.5)

The Seahawks are coming all across the country to play the Jets with an offensive line that has not looked good and an injured Russell Wilson. I have heard some argue that Wilson should be rested a week given how good the Jets front line is and how much the Seahawks rely on their quarterback’s mobility, and I’m not too sure I disagree with them. The Jets offence worries me going against yet another excellent looking Seahawks defence, particularly given the six interceptions Ryan Fitzpatrick threw last week, but in this game at home and getting three and a half points I’m backing the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Broncos @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers’ head coach Dirk Koetter worries me, and even though they are in Tampa Bay, I don’t see the Bucs being able to live with a Bronocs team who’s defence is still up there with any in the league and an a offence that is doing more than last year when they won the Super Bowl.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Cowboys @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cowboys have very possibly lost Dez Bryant for the week with a hair line fracture in his leg, but he has not been a focus for rookie quarterback Dak Prescott so far this season so I’m not sure it is a disaster. They are on the road this week, but I’m not sure that a trip to San Francisco is going to be too hard for them as the 49ers are still rebuilding the roster and every time I have picked them to keep a game close they have failed so I can’t pick them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Rams @ Cardinals (-8.5)

This feels like a real trap game, as somehow the Rams are 2-1 despite a sputtering offence. I am really not so upset by them sitting their first round draft pick, but an offence that has Todd Gurley shouldn’t be ranked thirty-first by DVOA. However, whilst I want to pick the Cardinals as I think they are the better team with an excellent coach, things have not been clicking. Having lost to the Patriots in the opening game of the season, they have only won one more game with Carson Palmer struggling. Their offence has small margin of error on all the deep shots that they take, and I’m not at all confident about them covering this line. However, I do trust Bruce Arians and his staff, and they really need to turn this round to get back into the hunt for the division, but I trust them to win this game rather than cover this line. I’d quite like to be wrong on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Saints @ Chargers (-4.5)

This is a battle of teams featuring excellent quarterbacks and very little else. The Saints defence is horrible again, and it feels like Drew Brees is pressing a little to try to make up for it. The Chargers however keep losing players, and I’m surprised to see them giving this many points. The Saints have only lost one game by five points or more, but I can’t bring myself to pick them in this one, but I do not feel confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Steelers were looking like one of the best teams in the NFL until they lost a surprising game on the road in Philadelphia last week. The defensive is struggling to rush the passer, and the offence was surprisingly ineffective last week despite being pretty terrifying even before getting Le’Veon Bell back like they do this week. The Chiefs are struggling a little on defence to rush the passer as they are missing Justin Houston, but they are a well-coached team whose offence is continuing to play well under Andy Reid. Part of me wants to pick the Steelers as I think their offence is really going to come together now, but this is just too many points to give to a Chiefs team who I think will stay in contention if nothing else.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Giants @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Vikings are surprising everyone with how good their offence is going with Sam Bradford as their quarterback and without Adrian Peterson. Their defence is also playing even better than last year, and their new stadium is incredibly loud. The Giants are a better team than I was expecting, with the defence coming together with their free-agents and the offence developing. However, I have to back the Vikings in this one as I have more faith in what Mike Zimmer is putting together in Minnesota.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Jets @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The first London game of the year sees the 0-3 (edit – as Dan has pointed out, the Dolphins are in fact 1-2, it just feels like 0-3!) Dolphins as the home team. It has been a horrible start to the year for a team that most of us were tipping to make a push for the playoffs in the offseason. However, I wrote that the winners of the offseason are frequently a let down when it comes time to play the games, and this has certainly been the case so far. Despite the expensive addition of Suh that was expected to turn around the defensive line, but in fact this unit seems to have continued its bad play from the end of last season and so there is more to worry about that Suh’s six tackles and absence of sacks. The struggles the Dolphins are having on offence is less of a surprise to me, although I wasn’t expecting it to be so pronounced, but I did notice through both free agency and the draft that the Dolphins front office hadn’t addressed the offensive line that was not good last season so it should not be a surprise that they can’t run the ball this year and are not exactly protecting Tannehill very effectively. Given that I am sure Joe Philburn kept his job more because they wanted to give Tannehill a second year under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor after the improvements he made last season, Philburn will have to turn things round very quickly if he wants to keep his job.

With all of that said, the Jets are probably not the team that you would want to see this week. Their already good front seven now has a secondary worthy of it and first year head coach Todd Bowles has moulded them into an effective unit. They may have lost last week with one of the most Jets-like plays they’ve had in a while (what Brandon Marshall was thinking when he attempted that lateral pass I do not know, I suspect he hasn’t’ been watching the rugby world cup), but they have been solid so far. They will need Ryan Fitzpatrick to protect the ball better than he did against he Eagles as this team can’t win if he throws three touchdowns, but if the offence can run the ball and control the turnovers like they did in the first two game, then with their defence the Jets are going to be a tough team for any team to face.

I think this is a case of the wrong team at the wrong time for the Dolphins, and whilst I hope I’m wrong as Dan is going to Wembley with a Jets fan, I fear this is not going to be his favourite trip to Wembley.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Texans @ Falcons (-6.5)

The Falcons have got off to a strong start to the year, making a case to be considered one of the best teams in the NFC. Their defence is improved under first year head coach Dann Quinn from a unit that finished 2014 at the bottom of the Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and whilst they may not exactly be intimidating they are doing enough to keep the team in the games. Meanwhile, the offence is flying with Julio Jones demonstrating his extraordinary talents in every game, and the stirrings of a running game.

This week they welcome a Texans team that just don’t appear to be very good. They have some very good individuals on defence, but it is not quite gelling yet, but of that has to be the stuggles on offence. The Texans cannot get their running game going, and are still waiting for Arian Foster to come back from his pre-season groin injury, whilst their quarterback play has been suspect so the only player who has caught the eye has been DeAndre Hopkins. It could be that the Texans are picking a high round quarterback in next year’s draft if they don’t turn around their season.

I do not think the Texans have the offence to keep up with a soaring Falcons on the road, and I don’t think they will be able to cover here.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Gaints @ Bills (-5.5)

The Bills bounced back from a horrible loss to the Patriots with an incredibly sound beating of the Dolphins. Their defence returned to their aggressive selves, stifling the Dolphins whilst the offence racked up over four hundred yards. If Tyrod Taylor can protect the ball in his first season as a starter then there is a good chance the Bills can be in contentions for the playoffs at the end of the season.

The Giants got the win last week, but their offence has to become more efficient in their opponents half for them to win consistently. They kicked far too many field goals last week, and the fact that they hosted a number of receivers for workouts this week indicates that they are not happy with their depth at receiver. The defence stood up to Washington’s run game last week, but there was very little pass rush and their only sack came on a six man blitz and a lot of their other pressure was more situational as Washington was forced to throw to get back into the game.

It will be interesting to see if the Bills can establish the run in this game, but I have a feeling that it is going to be a long day for Eli Manning against the Bills defence and so I’m backing the Bills to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Raiders @ Bears (+2.5)

It would appear that the Bears are already giving up on this season, with trades of both Jared Allen and Jon Bostic for draft picks echoing baseball’s tradition of selling players when it’s time to rebuild. They managed to avoid turnovers on offfence, with ten punts and no points as they were shut out by the Seahawks. There are very few bright spots for this team and they will be picking very early at the next draft.

This week the Bears welcome a Raiders team who broke their road losing streak in Cleveland, and who are clearly on the rise. The burgeoning partnership between Derek Carr and Amari Cooper is already beginning to look how the Raiders would have hoped when they drafted Cooper back in April, and Khalil Mack got his first sacks of the year from his new position of defensive end.

It still feels slightly surreal to be doing this, but I am actually going to back the Raiders to get a second win on the road against the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals continue to make me hopeful despite some questionable tackling at times on defence, but Andy Dalton led the comeback when I was getting nervous, and AJ Green had a monster game. If the defence can continue to hold up and the offence stays looking this good then Bengals might do more than just get their first playoff win in an eternity, but before we get ahead of ourselves, they are about to start a nasty stretch of games welcoming the Chiefs and the Seahawks before visiting the Bills and Steelers. There are worse road games to come, but the Bengals need to win enough of these games to stay atop the AFC North, however starting the season with two away wins help.

I think the Chiefs are better than their 1-2 record suggests. They have one of the game’s best running backs in Jamaal Charles, and a tremendous pair of pass rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Those pass rusher though did not help them against an otherworldly Aaron Rodgers as their secondary couldn’t keep do enough to slow the Packers down. Meanwhile, although Alex Smith is a very solid quarterback, he is not going to get you multiple explosive plays.

I am worried about this game, the Chiefs are a solid team and I really respect their pass rush. I’m hoping that a combination of the Bengals’ good offensive line can hold up to give Andy Dalton time to find the myriad of players he has available to him, and that the defence can bottle up Charles but they will have to tackle better. Still, I am hopeful in this game, and the Bengals have been very solid at home in recent season so I will nervously back them to go 4-0.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Jags @ Colts (-9.5)

The Colts finally got a win last week in a very up and down game against the Titans. They were 14-0 up in the second quarter, 14-27 down in the third quarter, before finally running out 35-33 winners after the Titans failed a two point conversion. The changes to their offensive line helped them establish a rung game with Frank Gore getting a pair of rushing touchdowns and eighty-six yards, but Andrew Luck still threw two interceptions, and was sacked three times. Their defence also gave up over four hundred yards, so whilst the away divisional win was important for them, I’m not sure how many of their problems were truly fixed given that it mostly surrounds the talent on the roster and what is going on with the front office.

However, if you are trying to sort out a team, then playing two of your AFC South rivals back to back might not be the worst thing to do. The Jaguars are still missing a lot of players, and there are still a lot of questions about Blake Bortles, but at least Allen Robinson is back this season and managed a bit play against the Patriots, but they really weren’t ready to compete in that game.

I really think that this is too many points for the Colts to be getting against the Jags, but I can’t bring myself to risk the Jaguars on the road again so I’m reluctantly backing the Colts to break even thanks to the state of the division they play in.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Eagles @ Washington (+3.5)

Washington started the season looking solid against a Dolphins team that we now know are struggling, got a win against the Rams, but struggled against the Giants away on the Thursday night. The limitations of Kirk Cousins really showed themselves last week, and if Washington can’t establish their running game, or get behind then I think they will really struggle on offence. Their defence line has improved and they have been stouter against the run so far this season, but they are still suspect in the pass game, and losing DeAngelo Hall for a few weeks will not helpt.

The Eagles finally got their first win last week, and it is a sign of the state of the NFC East that they by no means out of the running to win the division, but they still need to improve. On offence Sam Bradford still does not look comfortable, and the lack of a receiver that can get themselves open without the scheme is causing issues, but more worrying is the problems they are having running the ball as that is what Chip Kelly’s offence is predicated on. They did better against the Jets, but their line still doesn’t seem to be playing that well and it will be interesting to see what they can do in Washington. Their defence front has looked pretty good so far this season, but their secondary is asked to do a lot of singe man coverage, and has not held up well until last week. They were however facing a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who can be streaky, but given they are facing Cousins this week, this might be another week where they improve.

There are still problems with the Eagles, and there are a few moves in the offseason that Kelly made that worried me, but they have their first and things may be coming round. This might be a bad pick given that they are on the road, but Washington are not as good as the Jets and so I fancy Eagles to get back to 2-2 from their shaky start.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers bumped back down to 1-2 against the Texans last week as they continue to go through the growing pains of having a rookie quarterback. It is too early to tell how he will in the long run, but they were shut out in the second half and continue to struggle, The defence also seems to be up and down, only generating one turn over last week, and it does appear to be another long year in Tampa.

The Panthers are a limited team on offence, but are good on defence despite missing the great linebacker Luke Kuechly to concussion, and have made the best of a run of winnable games to remain unbeaten. Their offence has centred around Cam Newton and his ability to run as well as pass, with Greg Olson living up to the billing of number one receiver that was enforced by the injury to Kelvin Benjamin.

We will know more about the Panthers later in the season when they have to face the likes of the Seattle and Green Bay, but this week I think they will have more than enough to take care of the Bucs on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Browns @ Chargers (-7.5)

The Chargers have struggled after a promising opening game, and got thoroughly beaten on the road to the Vikings last week. The suspension to Antonio Gates isn’t helping, but more worrying was the pressure the Vikings got with four sacks and thirteen quarterback hits. The offence is the dominant side of the ball for this team, and they will need to do a better job of protecting Philip Rivers if they are to get back to winning ways as their defence has been struggling, and is currently ranked twenty-third by DVOA.

The Browns are a hard team to read, with a defensive head coach that only has his team ranked in the mid-twenties, questions at quarterback, and problems with their skill players. An NFL head coach has to win as many games as possible, but I’m not sure what the Browns are gaining by playing Josh McCown at his age when they really need to find out if they have something in Johnny Manziel. I suspect not, but they are not going to find out with him holding a clipboard on the sideline, and whilst they came back late to make the score look respectable, they seem to be holding station with how they finished the season last year, whilst the Raiders team they were playing are on the rise.

I am very much worried by the points, but I do not trust the Browns travelling to the west coast and playing a team that if nothing else, has an elite quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Vikings @ Broncos (-6.5)

I am trying to resist the boom and bust reaction that Peyton manning is generating after every game the Broncos play, but he at least more comfortable as the Broncos settled into a more familiar offence for him. The questions will remain about his arm because he is thirty-nine and he was never the most physically gifted of quarterbacks, but he was always so smart and still has enough to be effective in bursts and that is all this team needs to win at the moment. Their defence is playing so well that Broncos are 3-0 despite the bumpy start they have had on offence, and as long as the Broncos can keep this formula going they will win more games than not.

The Vikings had a very good win last week, with their defence looking very good as they got so much pressure and Adrian Peterson is beginning to look much more like himself. The Vikings are now getting him the number of touches he needs, and he appears to have shaken off the rust that was holding back in the first couple of games. With Mike Zimmer’s double a gap pressure, there is a distinct possibility that the Vikings have the tools to really exploit the problems the Broncos on offence as although Peyton has always been exceptional against the blitz, the Broncos line has been questionable at guard and I have a feeling that the Vikings could well exploit this.

With the Broncos defence playing as well as it is, and Teddy Bridgewater not yet convincing, you can see the Broncos committing to stifling Peterson in the run game and daring Bridgewater to beat them with his arm. However, whilst the Vikings may well struggle on offence, I have a feeling that this good young defence is going to cause the Broncos problems, and I see a close game that is nip and tuck. I often get stung by road underdogs with lines in this range, but that’s not going to stop me from backing the Vikings to get a sneaky cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Packers @ 49ers (+9.5)

There isn’t so much to write about in this game. In Jim Tomsula they have a head coach who will keep the team unified, but they simply lost too much top level talent in the offseason and Colin Kaepernick has not developed as a quarterback and threw a pair of pick sixes to start the game, and finished with four interceptions and a grand total of sixty-seven yards.

The Packers on the other hand have a quarterback who is otherworldly, matching his physical skills to his experience and a great understanding of the game. They have not missed a beat despite losing their top receiver in the preseason, and their defence is doing enough, although there do still look like they are weak against the run.

I can only see this game going one way, even if Rodgers is not quite as good on the road as he is in Green Bay.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Rams @ Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals have got off to a great start to the season, and whilst they may not have faced the cream of the NFL, they have won in a convincing fashion against the teams put in front of them. Carson Palmer has looked excellent whilst Larry Fitzgerald has excelled in the slot and leads the team in both yards and touchdowns. Their defence has also looked good, and should have more than enough to cope with a Rams team that once again looks challenged on offence.

The Rams seem to be having the same season again. They have the scary front seven on defence, an offence that isn’t quite working, and they will play some teams tough whilst generally losing. They were unable to beat a Steelers team despite knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game, and I worry about their ability to generate offence.

This is one of those games where I could regret picking against the Rams as they always have the ability to generate a surprise in a divisional game, but I don’t expect them to have enough to cope with a soaring Cardinals team on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Caridnals

Cowboys @ Saints (-4.5)

This is likely a matchup of backup quarterbacks, and superficially Luke McCown didn’t look too bad for the Saints as he completed thirty-one of thirty-eight passes for over three hundred yards, but he didn’t throw any touchdowns and did throw a pick. More worrying for the Saints, there appears to be no turn around on their defence, which was bad last season and doesn’t appear to have improved this one. Gone are the days when the Saints dominated at home and so you worry about them in this game.

The Cowboys really struggled in this game, with the absence of Dez Bryant really causing a lot of their problems as the Falcons were able to stack the line against the run as they didn’t fear Brandon Weedon exposing them in the passing game. If you look at the Football Outsiders defensive rankings, you well expect the Cowboys to have similar problems this week against the Saints, except the Falcons are trending up on defence, and I really have no confidence in Rob Ryan’s unit.

This is another of those games that is hard to pick, but I really don’t like the Saints, particularly with Drew Brees either sat on the bench or playing with his rotator cuff issues.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks looked much more like themselves last week on defence, despite Kam Chancellor playing limited as he makes his way back to game shape, but going against the Bears in their current state will help you. However, the Lions have not looked good so far on offence so you can see the Seahawks defence’s improvement to continue this weekend. The offence however still worries me, Marshawn Lynch doesn’t look like himself, although we don’t know if this is age catching up with the running back, or the state of Seattle’s offensive line, but either way they are not running the ball as in season’s pass. Nor do they seem to be turning around a passing game that has not historically been that high powered, although Jimmy Graham did get more touches and a touchdown last week.

The Lions have had an awful start to the season. On offence Matthew Stafford has had rib issues, which perhaps is not surprising given that their line doesn’t appear to have improved. They are not running the ball well, and it is not often that you hear a player tell the media that the opposition knew their plays as Golden Tate did this week. If this weren’t bad enough, the defence has also struggled to find their way, not helped by losing their outstanding coverage linebacker DeAndre Levy on top of the rest of the turmoil this unit had in the offseason we the high profile shake up on the line.

The Lions really seem to have hit a wall following last season, and I can’t see them going into Seattle and turning this round against a Seahawks team who really need to get themselves back in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dan has been a model of consistency so far this season, going 8-8 each week whilst I’ve been up and down so if we follow the same patterns I should be about to have a horrible week and end up level with Dan again. Week three saw less upsets, and some teams without wins begin to turn things round so let’s get started with the upcoming Thursday night game, with the rest to follow in the next couple of days.

Gee:    Week 3   10-6              Overall   26-22

Dan:    Week 3   8-8                Overall   24-24

Ravens @ Steelers (+2.5)

The headline news for the Steelers was not their win against the Rams, but that what looked like a nasty injury to Ben Roethlisberger is in fact a sprained MCL so he is gone for a few weeks rather than the season. Looking forward the question is whether Michael Vick can keep the Steelers in the hunt for the playoffs until Roethlisberger can get back, and this is a big question as it as it has been a while since Michael Vick has looked like a starting quarterback. However, if Le’Veon Bell can keep totting up the one hundred thirty total yard games, and Antonio Brown remains in the discussion as one of the best receivers in the game then they have a chance, but the defence has to hold up to keep them in it.

The Ravens nearly got themselves a win, and are surely one of the best 0-3 teams in recent years. The problem is that they are not rushing the passer and their secondary isn’t holding up their end on defence, whilst on offence they suddenly can’t run the ball. This surely must be system related as the o-line and running backs are pretty much the same, but whatever the cause it needs fixing in a hurry. The real bright spark last week was Steve Smiths’ one hundred and eighty-six yards and two touchdowns, which included one catch down the sideline on fourth and two, threw off one defender and ran the ball in for a fifty yard touchdown when he really should have been tackled. In previous years they might have got the comeback, but against this year’s Bengals they weren’t able to cover the receivers and Dalton didn’t fall apart.

This is a really hard game for me to pick because I don’t trust Michael Vick as a starter, there have been ball security issues in recent seasons and he lost the ball once coming in for Roethlisberger against the Rams. Equally, the Steelers have a lot more talent on offence at the moment, and whilst I find it hard to believe that the Ravens will go 0-4, I have this feeling that the Steelers might just sneak it and they’re getting points at home. I could well regret this, but until somebody other than Steve Smith shows up for the Ravens, I’m backing the Steelers even with their backup quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Last week I returned to respectability, going 8-8 despite missing out on two games by only half a point. Unfortunately, due to these two games and me underestimating the Bears, I’ve dropped a game behind Dan in our competition so I will have to redouble my efforts or he’s going to win the blog from me. You may notice some more stats from the Football Outsiders creeping in, although it will be another week until their DVOA stat starts including the adjustments for opponents, so I’ll be using their modified DAVE stat overall ranking as this includes adjustments for preseason/early season comparison, alongside their DVOA stats for offence, defence and special teams. As well as these advanced stats I’ll be using traditional stats, blind luck, observation, and reading the entrails of a ritually slaughtered Steelers fan.

Gee:     Week 3   8-8                Overall   21-27
Dan:     Week 3   9-7                Overall   22-26

Giants @ Washington (-3.5)

So the Thursday night game this week is between two teams that I picked wrong last week. The Giants beat the Texans pretty convincingly, with Eli having a very solid day gaining 234 yards from 21 completions out of 28 attempts, two touchdowns and no interceptions, a running game that gouged the Texans for 176 yards by Rashad Jennings, and the Texans giving the ball away four times. I don’t feel too bad about not seeing this turnaround coming for the Giants, but the Texans were on the road for a second straight week and I might have got carried away by how good JJ Watt is. However, although I had mentioned that Kirk Cousins looked more comfortable as a drop back passer than RG3, I hadn’t realised how much better their offence seemed to run. They only narrowly lost to the 3-0 Eagles, have the third ranked defence according to DVOA, and I think they are going to be too much to handle for an improving Giants team.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dan’s Comments: – I’ve changed my mind twice on this one. Giants looked pretty good against the Texans (who themselves were strong in weeks 1 and 2), so I’m going to go with them.

Bills @ Texans (-2.5)

The Bills are ranked ninth overall by the DAVE stat; and are ninth on offence, eleventh on defence, and second on special teams by DVOA. They lost to a good Chargers team last week as I thought they would, but they have made themselves a real contender in the AFC East. I’m still worried about EJ Manuel and whilst they look like they might improve on last year’s 6-10 record, it is early and the Bills have a recent history that doesn’t inspire confidence. Not only did the Texans lose last week, but their defence gave up 193 yards on the ground and Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions. It has been a feature of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career that every few games he has a stinker, and so I’m not expecting a repeat performance, but for me the Bills have the edge in this one. And I’m getting points!

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Back to winning ways this week for the Texans

Packers @ Bears (+0.5)

I’m not sure if Aaron Rodgers telling fans to relax will help or not, but I don’t think that he is particularly to blame here. The o-line hasn’t being playing great and as a result the offence is not firing on all cylinders, and whilst I don’t think they will necessarily stay ranked twenty-first as they currently are, for me this is where their problem lies. This is interesting as I expected the defence to be the issue, but at eighteenth by DVOA, the defence should be good enough for them to win if their offence was playing up to expectations, so it all depends on if they can turn things around on offence. This should be good news as the Bears defence was the worry in preseason, however they’ve been holding up surprising well so far. There are questions about their run defence, but I’m not sure that the Packers as currently constituted are the team to take advantage of this. I think this is going to be a close game but I fancy the Bears to win at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Dan’s Comments: – This always makes for a good game. Packers by a touchdown for me.

Lions @ Jets (+1.5)

This is the first game the Dan and I agree on. The Lions had a really good win against the Packers last week, are looking more disciplined and won with defence. It must be hard to lose Stephen Tulloch to the year with a torn ACL that he sustained celebrating a sack, but they are ranked second in defence by DVOA, and linebacker DeAndre Levy is really making a name for himself with his good play. The Jets are still playing well on defence and Geno Smith has improved from last year, but I have the feeling that the Lions are good and the Jets are not going to be good enough to win this one, even if they are at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Dan’s Comments: – Easiest pick this week!

Titans @ Colts (-7.5)

The Titans did not have a good day against the Bengals, and the early talk of Jake Locker improving has cooled after he threw two interceptions last week. I don’t know if they have anything they can hang their hat on as an identity, Jake Locker is on the injury list, and so I don’t think they’re going to be winning this one. The Colts came out last week and did what they needed to in beating a poor Jaguars team. We expect Andrew Luck to be good, but even Trent Richardson showed something last week and having finally got their first win of the season, I think they will beat the Titans at home. I’m a little worried about the points, but I think they will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Dan’s Comments: – This will be a close one, so I’m taking the points.

Dolphins @ Raiders (+4.5)

This is the first of the international series games being played at Wembley this year. The Dolphins beat a Patriots team that look like they’re struggling in week 1 and then have lost against the Bills and Chiefs. Their coach has not exactly been backing their young quarterback, and whilst the Raiders are already over in the U.K., the Dolphins are not flying in until Friday. I don’t like this strategy for travelling and I hate the approach to the quarterback question. Tannehill has only had three games with a new coordinator and it’s much too early to be making a judgement about him. I also don’t like that there are reports that the players on defence hated the game plan against the Chiefs. This does not strike me as a well run football team. The Raiders are 0-3, lost against the misfiring Patriots, and so they are rightly underdogs against the Dolphins on a neutral site. But their performance improved last week, and I just have a feeling about them. I could regret this, although I don’t want Dan to watch his team lose live at the stadium, but I think the game is going the wrong way for him in London this weekend.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: – A good day in London for the Dolphins (I wonder how much of it I’ll remember on Monday morning!)

Buccaneers @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Buccaneers were awful last week. You hope they have a chip on their shoulder after being humiliated on nationally televised game last week, but there is a lot of work for Lovie Smith to do. I thought that Mike Glennon looked better than the injured Josh McCown last week, and so that might help, but I’m not sure when they might pick up a win. The odds say they don’t lose every game this year, but looking down their schedule I don’t fancy them against anyone. The Steelers got an impressive win against the Panthers last week, and Le’Veon Bell is looking really good. The banged up linebacker group worries me and I still think they might be a step behind the Ravens in the division, but the AFC North once again looks to be one of the tougher divisions in the NFL and I’m happy that the Steelers will beat the spread in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comments: – Even with the spread, I can’t see anything other than a Steelers win this week.

Panthers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Steve Smith has been heavily featured by the Ravens and is playing well as they welcome his former team to M&T Bank stadium. The Ravens have done pretty well on the field this year, but losing Dennis Pitta to a second dislocated hip could cause them problems. However, Owen Daniels looked good when I saw him and knows the system and the defence is good so I think the Ravens will continue to do okay. The Panthers really got gouged in the running game last week against the Steelers, and whilst they look much better than some of us were expecting, they just lost to a team that got beaten by Ravens pretty handily. I’m not worried about the Browns running the Ravens close last week as I think they’re going to do that to a lot of teams and I’m taking the Ravens despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Dan’s Comments: – Another close one, but I think there’ll be more than a field goal in it.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-13.5)

The Jaguars are bad, and it’s going to take double digit points for me to pick them again this year unless they show me something. I still stand by my week one pick, but we know more now and I don’t see the Chargers having a problem continuing their good start to the season this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Dan’s Comments: – The Jags (despite being 0-3 so far!) are a team on the up. They’ll still lose, but not by 2 touchdowns.

Falcons @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Teddy Bridgewater era starts in Minnesota and I think in the long term he is going to be good, but losing Peterson has hurt this offence and the line doesn’t seem to be playing that well either. I think the defence will be okay under Zimmer, but it’s going to be a long season. We shouldn’t overreact to the Falcons performance against the Bucs last week, but they are good on offence, and I think they will have too much for the Vikings, even away from home.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Dan’s Comments: – OK, I changed my mind – this is the easiest pick.

Eagles @ 49ers (-5.5)

I think the 49ers are in the same place as I did last week, their depth is being tested and whilst I don’t think they’re bad, the defence is really struggling (twenty-first in DVOA) and indiscipline is costing them too. I wasn’t surprised at their loss last week to a Cardinals team that I think are going to keep contending this season (as ever, health permitting) and I am a little surprised that they’re getting so many points, even at home. The Eagles are 3-0 but I did love the line on the Grantland NLF Podcast, “…Sports sciene 0, regression to the mean 1,” when talking about their injuries. I think they’re the better team in this game, and whilst it’s definitely possible that this game could be one they lose, I don’t see them getting beaten by six points.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Dan’s Comments: – Eagles to continue their run this week. Philly win.

Saints @ Cowboys (+3.5)

The Cowboys got a win last week, but before we get ahead of ourselves, it was against the Rams who are really struggling. The running game helped them counter the back issues that still seem to be affecting Tony Romo’s game, and they certainly the offensive line to do it. Their defence did enough, but I don’t know if it will be able to cope in this game. The Saints were meant to be challengers for the Super Bowl this year, but their defence isn’t living up to last year’s improvement and their offence has been surprisingly out of sync, or at least that is the narrative I’ve heard, but by DVOA they are ranked number one. They are moving from one dome to another, so I don’t think there woes on the road will be as pronounced as some expect and I see them following up their first win with a second against the Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Dan’s Comments: – I picked Cowboys the last 2 weeks, but I think they’ll struggle this week.

Patriots @ Chiefs (+3.5)

The Patriots seem to have undergone a switch in identity with their defence ranked number one by DVOA and an offence that is struggling. Their offensive line is not giving Tom Brady the protection he is used to, and there are signs that father time is catching up with one of the all time greats. In fairness, if you look at the weapons he has to work with now, compared to a few years ago, this is not perhaps surprising but it also something that isn’t going to change any time soon. I liked the Chiefs going into the season, and whilst I thought they would regress this year, I didn’t expect this. They beat the Dolphins last week, but I think the Patriots and the Dolphins are heading in different directions and I can’t see the Patriots losing on Monday night football. That’s a really bad reason to pick a team but I’m going with it for now.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Dan’s Comments: –  While they beat the Dolphins this week, I wouldn’t say they were particularly good, and I can’t see them being too close to the Patriots this week.