Well, after complaining about it for several weeks, and tying to make sure I pay attention to the important lines alongside the numbers I managed to time a really good score against a difficult week for Dan and so picked up five points in week twelve. Unfortunately, week thirteen got off to a bad start with the Patriots singularly failing to follow the numbers but there’s a long way to go, and if I can consolidate last week then perhaps the social media colours will finally return to the orange and black.

Gee:	Week 12:  11 – 5	Overall:  92 – 88
Dan:	Week 12:  6 – 10	Overall:  85 – 95

Survivor Competition

So the surprising turnaround from the Raiders against the Seahawks tripped Dan up and so allowed me to sneak past him as his Dolphins did the business against the Texans. In a rare moment of synchronisation we are both going against the Texans this week with the Browns, because whilst I did try to find an alternative, I could not find a team I was convinced by.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 6

Week 13 Selection:

Gee:    Browns @ Texans
Dan:    Browns @ Texans

Early Games:

The jarring fact of week thirteen is that Deshaun Watson returns to playing football after his eleven week suspension and a $5 million fine for the multiple sexual assaults the NFL in their own reports believe he perpetrated. The Browns will be hoping that the conversation will return to football, but he will be debuting for the Browns against his old team who are also complicit having allegedly provided NDA forms and hotel rooms for Watson’s use and reached their own settlements with the women who are still impacted by Watson’s predatory behaviour. I’ve been wishing bad things for the Browns all season, and they must continue to own the decision they gave to essentially reward Watson with an unprecedented guaranteed contract for his behaviour. The Texans are not a good team, but plenty will remember Watson’s presence and non-presence at the facility last season, and I wonder how their motivation will be.

The game of the early slate for me is the Jets travelling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings given how much better backup quarterback Mike White looked compared to Zach Wilson, but the matchup that will drive the contest is the Jets’ fourth ranked by DVOA defence trying to slow down receiver Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings offence.

Otherwise, there are plenty of games with close lines that should be competitive but not a lot that leaps of the page.

Steelers @ Falcons (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Packers @ Bears (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Lions (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Jets @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Washington @ Giants (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Titans @ Eagles (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Broncos @ Ravens (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Browns @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Late Games:

There are two really good late games this week, with the Chiefs seeking revenge for two losses last season against a Bengals team who have got their season back on track in recent weeks. If that was not big enough, the Dolphins are travelling to San Francisco so that rookie head coach Mike McDaniel can take on his mentor Kyke Shanahan and the 49ers defence that McDaniel spent the last five years working against. You really can’t go wrong watching either of these games.

Seahawks @ Rams (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dolphins @ 49ers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Chiefs @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Chargers @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Sunday Night Football:

Colts @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

The Colts lost again last week, but Jeff Saturday did come out and acknowledge his fault in the clock management late in the game, yet they face an incredibly tough game ahead of the bye week with the Cowboys riding high at 8-3. My initial thought would be to take the points, but checking my numbers this line is actually the right side of a key number to have me going against my gut instincts so I am backing the Cowboys slightly nervously.

Monday Night Football

Saints @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Buccaneers are simply a different team this season, and whilst the Saints are also really struggling this year, I trust their defence enough to keep this game closer than this line suggests in a fiercely contested divisional game.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saint

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Slowly, slowly Dan is reeling me in. I think this run started before the podcast went on hiatus so I can’t blame that, but I clearly need to stop this slide and at least keep things even this week yet alone claw some wins back to extend my narrowing lead.

Gee:	Week 9:  6 – 7	Overall:  69 – 67
Dan:	Week 9:  8 – 5	Overall:  65 – 71

Survivor Competition

So we have that rare thing last week where both of us had successful picks with the Patriots and Dolphins coming through. This week Dan went for the Falcons against the Panthers and so has already given me the opportunity to take a lead. I’m slightly nervous about this pick but the rankings give me this team as my best option and I’m going against a coach who has only coached high school before as I back the Raiders to beat the Colts.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 10 Selection:

Gee:    Colts @ Raiders
Dan:    Falcons @ Panthers

Early Games:

We have an early early game this week as the Seahawks take on the Buccaneers, and Tom Brady is expecting a crazy atmosphere and I’m certainly inclined to agree with him. However, the Buccaneers are struggling and at this point we must take the Seahawks seriously so on what will be a neutral field we’ll see what happens

The gloss comes off the Vikings visiting the Bills due to the Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen having an elbow injury, the Broncos at Titans sees us giving Russel Wilson another stern test, but there is not a lot jumping off the slate to me right now.

Seahawks @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Vikings @ Bills (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Lions @ Bears (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Broncos @ Titans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Browns @ Dolphins (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Texans @ Giants (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Saints @ Steelers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Late Games:

The Cowboys visiting Lambeau Field should be one of the games of the week, but with the ongoing disaster that the Packers season has been it’s hard to pick much to be excited about in these three games. The Colts are now being coached by someone without coaching experience above high school against a Raiders team that are really struggling, whilst in the third game both quarterbacks have shown up on the injury list this week and neither the Rams or Cardinals have impressed this season.

Colts @ Raiders (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Cowboys @ Packers (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Sunday Night Football:

Chargers @ 49ers (-6.5)

This should be a great matchup, and might even be so, but it would be slightly against expectation given that the Chargers have stuttered all season and don’t seem to be making best use of their star second year quarterback Justin Herbert. Meanwhile, if he can stay healthy running back Christian McCaffrey is a cheat code that unlocks Jimmy Garoppolo running Kyle Shanahan’s offence that in a weak NFC could see the 49ers making a real run at a deep run in the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Monday Night Football

Washington @ Eagles (-10.5)

This line makes me nervous, but I’m not that impressed with Washington for all of the usual reasons, while the Eagles have continued to dominate and whilst I have conflicting numbers that indicates I could take the points, I just don’t trust Washington on the road, and I do now have a faith in the Eagles. I just hope it isn’t misplaced.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Well, Dan and I both went for the Eagles on Thursday and paid the price for it with a loss to start week nine with the Eagles winning, but not quite by enough for us to cover. That’s particularly frustrating for me as Dan has continued to reel me in as I seem to have lost my early season form, but fingers crossed I can stop the bleeding soon.

Gee:	Week 8:  6 – 9	Overall:  63 – 60
Dan:	Week 8:  8 – 7	Overall:  57 – 66

Survivor Competition

Dan was tripped up last week by going for the Jets against the Patriots, which to me was always a bit of a bold choice and I was able to then equalise with the Eagles beating the Steelers. This week Dan is understandably backing the Dolphins to beat the Bears, whilst my best option seems to be the Patriots welcoming the Colts.

Current Score

Gee: 4
Dan: 4

Week 9 Selection:

Gee:    Dolphins @ Bears
Dan:    Colts @ Patriots

Early Games:

The Bengals definitely need to turn things around this week, and the line is surprisingly high considering the injury even if the Panthers are strugglig. The Vikings visiting Washington could be surprisingly competitive whilst the game of the early slate could well be the Chargers visiting the Falcons.

Chargers @ Falcons (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Dolphins @ Bears (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Panthers @ Bengals (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Packers @ Lions (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Pakers

Colts @ Patriots (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Bills @ Jets (+13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Vikings @ Washington (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Late Games:

Both the Rams and the Buccaneers look so different from last season and are really struggling whilst the Seahawks visiting the Cardinals is probably the pick of these games. The promise of the first couple of weeks faded quickly for the Jaguars whilst the Raiders have really struggled all season and who knows what will happen this week.

Raiders @ Jaguars (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Rams @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Sunday Night Football:

Titans @ Chiefs (-10.5)

This line is just way too big for me. The Chiefs are good, but the Titans have he knack for winning even if it is ugly, which is down to head coach Mike Vrabel and even if the Chiefs are at home I’m not sure I see them winning by eleven.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Monday Night Football

Ravens @ Saints (+3.5

The week finishes with a Ravens team who are trying to catch up with the best in the AFC by adding Roquan Smith to their defence but who still feel a level behind the Chiefs and Bills because of their offence. The Saints are still competitive in their division but have not been convincing as much as I’m happy to see Andy Dalton playing. The numbers say Saints eve if it feels a bit bold to me.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

So I failed to take into account Prime Time Andy Dalton quarterbacking the Saints or the return of DeAndrew Hopkins for the Cardinals as I got the pick wrong. It didn’t feel like a disaster of a pick, and it was the multiple picks from Dalton trying to make up the deficit at the end of the first half that finish the Saints.

Anyway, moving on to the rest of the week seven picks.

Early Games:

I think the Falcons visit to the Bengals might well be the pick of the early slate, although the Giants at Jaguars could be fun and the AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Browns has the potential to catch the imagination.

Falcons @ Bengals (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Lions @ Cowboys (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Colts @ Titans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Packers @ Washington (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Buccaneers @ Panthers (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Giants @ Jaguars (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Late Games:

The games that leap out as being competitive in the late slate are the Chiefs visiting the 49ers, but that is based on the 49ers finding a way despite the injuries, and the Seahawks at the Chargers where I think I do see an upset coming.

Jets @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Texans @ Raiders (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Seahawks @ Chargers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Chiefs @ 49ers (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Sunday Night Football:

Steelers @ Dolphins (-7.5)

The prime-time Sunday game is likely to feature two starting quarterbacks coming back from concussions and whilst I do expect the Dolphins to run out winners in this one, the line is too rich for me to expect them to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Monday Night Football

Bears @ Patriots (-7.5)

This should be a win a for a Patriots team who seem to have found something in recent weeks against a Bears team who haven’t. The line worries me a lot, particularly with Mac Jones possibly returning for the Patriots given that changes things rather than necessarily picking a side in the possible Patriots quarterback controversy. Still, the Bears haven’t convinced so even with more rest I’m trust the marginal numbers.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Dan’s self-proclaimed set of bold picks saw him pickup a point on me a third of the way through the seasons and there’s still plenty of time to catch up.

Gee:	Week 6:  7 – 7	Overall:  50 – 44
Dan:	Week 6:  8 – 6	Overall:  40 – 54

Saints @ Cardinals (-1.5)

I’m intrigued to see how this one plays out with the Saints coming off the loss to the Bengals and the Cardinals seeming disarray and churn at receiver. My numbers suggest the Cardinals is the better pick, but I don’t trust them at all and given I like the Saints to win anyway and I’m getting admittedly a small number of points, I am still backing the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Survivor Competition

I’m not thinking I jinxed the Buccaneers last week as I simply didn’t know Brady was acting like a diva rather than the ultimate quarterback so with him missing practices/walkthroughs whilst attending a wedding it’s possible not surprising things went badly. Dan pulled a further point ahead picking against his own team,, which I know was painful for him. This week I am jinxing the Cowboys who should beat the Lions even if they don’t cover the line.

Current Score

Gee: 2
Dan: 4

Week 7 Selection:

Gee:     Lions @ Cowboys
Dan:    Buccaneers @ Panthers

Bold Prediction of the Week

Having got the Jets beating the packers last week, and Dan refuting the cover as too easy, my bold prediction this week is for the Seahawks to beat the Chargers.