So we all picked the Steelers getting that many points and saw it lose, even though having watched the game I feel with a couple of very possible different breaks the Steelers could very easily have covered against the Browns so I certainly don’t feel like we were wrong. Still, our attention turns to the rest of the week’s games and there’s a few games where the picks are tricky but plenty I’m curious about.

I will say that I appear to have a lot of road teams this week, but I try to pick based on the numbers and what I think of the matchup so let’s see how week three goes.

Early Games:

There’s a few high lines in the early slate of games, but I think the Bills visiting the Dolphins will be closer than the line thinks despite the Bills’ hot start to the season, whilst I think the opposite of the Colts hosting the Chiefs. I’m curious about the results between the Ravens visiting the Patriots and properly concerned about the Bengals visiting the Jets.

I think the other game from the Bengals visiting the Jets that I will be watching from this group is the Texans at Bears as I’m still curious about both teams, and one of the first missions for me during the early part of the season is to get every non-AFC North team watched once as I’ll see plenty of the Browns, Ravens and Steelers anyway.

Texans @ Bears (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Raiders @ Titans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Colts (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cheifs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Ravens @ Patriots (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Bengals @ Jets (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Late Games:

I’m genuinely surprised about the line between the Chargers and the Jaguars as between the issues the Chargers had had one the offensive line and the improved competence the Jaguars have shown, I feel like this will be a closer game than the points suggests. The consensus of lines I’m seeing online agrees with me so while I do expect the Chargers to win, I like the Jaguars to be within a touchdown. I’ve gone back and forth on the Rams and Cardinals and could have easily gone with the Cardinals at home with them being that half point over the field goal, but I have a number going the other way so I’m nervously going with the Rams.

The other game I am watching this week is the Packers at Buccaneers, where I’m backing the Packers to keep moving on from their bad opening week loss and the fact that the Tom Brady weirdness is continuing, and they are without Mike Evans this week through suspension. The pick does make me nervous but I’m really looking forward to watching both teams for the first time this season.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Falcons @ Seahawks (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

49ers @ Broncos (+1.5)

The Broncos have got off to a rough start, whilst perversely the loss of their starting quarterback Trey Lance perhaps raises the floor of the 49ers. Whilst the Broncos offence is still looking disjointed and rookie head coach Nathanial Hackett is making questionable decisions I’m going to back the 49ers on the road in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Monday Night Football

Cowboys @ Giants (-2.5)

I hated picking this game so much. I like the start the Giants have had to the season, and I think they are beginning to build something, but it is the start of a very big job given how bad they have been in recent seasons. The Cowboys are in a worse position than I was expecting this season thanks to the Dak Prescott injury, but Cooper Rush got the job done running the offence last week, ably helped by the Bengals awful start to the season and inability to cope with Micah Parsons’ pass rush. My instinct and heart is with the Giants, and I can definitely see them winning this game, but the numbers are saying Cowboys for the cover and whilst its early to have the numbers overrule my head, particularly as I’d really like to be getting three, I’m going to trust the numbers for now…

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

There’s not too much riding on this week’s picks for me given how far I am behind, which is possibly a good thing as this is one of the hardest weeks to pick with many teams not having anything to play for and others resting players ahead of the start of the playoffs. At this time of the season pretty much everyone is going to be carrying some kind of injury and I never like trying to guess the motivation of players and coaches, but I will do my best to get as high a score as possible. Still, for once I feel relatively comfortable with the trivia questions:

‘I was the quarterback that led the Rams to a victory in the 2000 Super Bowl against the Tennessee Titans. I lost my starting job after I fumbled six times in the first game of the 2003 season. Who am I?

Which Charger quarterback bounced back from a dismal 2003-04 season, winning the Comeback Player of the Year Award, throwing 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and landing himself a spot in the 2005 NFL Pro Bowl?’

I think I know the answer to both of these questions, including the slightly sneaky second one, The first quarterback playing for the then San Diego Rams in an offence nicknamed the Greatest Show on Turf and was Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, whilst the second I believe is the future Hall of Famer who is now inextricably linked to the New Orleans Saints, but who started his career in San Diego – Drew Brees.

‘I think I know these this week, which I’m very pleased about so let’s see what Gee can do!

Question one is Hall of Famer Kurt Warner – he presents on the NFL Network now and he’s a very knowledgable guy but wouldn’t let viewers forget his Super Bowl ring! Doesn’t mention those fumbles though strangely enough!

Question two is the sure-to-be Hall of Famer, Drew Brees. Known of course now for his legendary career in New Orleans but he started life as a Charger and I think it would have been around this time.’

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

The first game in the week’s list makes me hesitate as the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at receiver didn’t hinder Jameis Winston that much last week as he threw for over three hundred yards, but he also threw four interceptions in a losing effort for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Houston Texans. This week the Bucs host the Atlanta Falcons who have won three straight and five of their last seven games, which some are saying is the team trying to save their coach. I don’t have the information to make such a statement but given the way these teams are playing, the Bucs’ injuries at receiver and Winston’s propensity for giving the ball away I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Jets @ Bills (-1.5)

The Buffalo Bills are locked up as the fifth seed and so technically don’t have anything to play for this week, except this is why the season now finishes with divisional games and it is hard to see head coach Sean McDermott not going for the win. Meanwhile the New York Jets have quietly won five of their last seven, but one of those losses was against the Bengals and I think the Bills are a much better team.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-6.5)

This is a game where nether team has much to play for. The Minnesota Vikings are locked into the sixth seed but will want to make amends after last week’s loss to the Packers, However, Dalvin Cook will still be sat out as they try to get his shoulder injury right for the playoffs so I wonder how much of a reaction there will be for the Vikings. The Chicago Bears meanwhile have been eliminated from the playoffs so this is a tricky road game for them. In this situation I am going to nervously grab the points as right now I can see the Vikings getting three and half points not giving away six and a half, which is a huge swing away from this line.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Browns @ Bengals (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns need to win this game to equal the number of wins they got last season, but they go into this off-season with a very different feel and I don’t know how they are going to react to a disastrous season of dysfunction, It certainly feels like the Cincinnati Bengals are set to take Joe Burrow in the new year having secured the number one pick in the draft. You only have to look at the comeback against the Dolphins last week to see how hard the players are still playing for the Bengals and there has not been the locker room discontent that you often hear from teams with a losing record so I am going to grab the points here and see if the Bengals can show something for next season.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Packers @ Lions (+10.5)

This might be a big line but the Green Bay Packers have a shot at the number one seed in the NFC and the Detroit Lions have now lost eight straight and you have to go four games back to find a game where the Lions would cover this line. I could regret this, but I am seeing an even bigger number online so I’m going to back the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Chargers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have won five straight but still need to secure the number three seed as they welcome an LA Chargers team in flux. The Chargers lost last week in front of so many Raider fans in their home stadium that they had to use a hard count and go into the off-season with big questions around their move yet alone their future with Philip Rivers finally looking his age and out of contract. I’m not sure what is going to happen in the off-season, but I’m pretty sure the Chiefs are going to win this game and I’m going to guess by enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-15.5)

The Miami Dolphins were three wins better than they needed to be to secure the first pick in the draft, but they still have plenty of draft capital to take advantage of and Brian Flores has impressed in his first year as a head coach. This is a tough game though as they head into New England to face a playoff bound Patriots team who looked a little better on offence last week. I don’t expect anything other than a Patriots win, but this is a huge line and it is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Saints @ Panthers (+13.5)

The New Orleans Saints are one of three teams who could secure the first seed in the NFC and who have looked good for most of the season, even with Drew Brees sitting for a number of games. This is a tricky line for me though as the Saints only beat the Carolina Panthers by three points in week twelve but the Panthers also lost by thirty-two points last week. I could come to regret this as the Saints will be motivated, but on the road facing a divisional opponent I’m going to say this is too many points and hope not to be proven an idiot.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Panthers

Washington @ Cowboys (-10.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are the seventh ranked team by DVOA, and by a lot of stats look to be a good team but this has not manifested itself into a good record. At 7-8 the Cowboys still have a slim chance of going to the playoffs but it relies on the Eagles losing as well as them beating Washington. The issue there is that Dak Prescott is struggling with a shoulder injury and did not look himself at all last week. As it turns out Washington also have quarterback problems with rookie Dwayne Haskins likely out with a high ankle sprain. I do see the Cowboys winning this game, but this line is simply too big for me to back the home team.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)

I have very little faith in the Oakland Raiders right now, but they did beat the LA Chargers last week. Yet at 7-8 they only have three more wins than last season and this is Jon Gruden’s second year. Perhaps they can turn things round next season and justify the long contract they gave Gruden, but right now they are the twenty-fourth ranked team by DVOA travelling to face the twenty-third ranked Denver Broncos. The Broncos have won three of their last four games and so you can see why they are the favourites in this game. I’m not confident in the result of this contest, and the Raiders do have an outside shot of making the playoffs but with Gruden talking about not rushing players back from injury I’m going to back the team with more wins over the last few weeks.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Titans @ Texans (+4.5)

The Tennessee Titans have control of their destiny as if they beat the Houston Texans they get into the playoffs. I think the reason that the Titans are favoured in this line is that the Texans’ receiver Will Fuller went down injured again last week and whilst the Texans still won, they look a very different team without Fuller to stretch the defence. I like the Titans to get the win despite losing their previous meeting, but this line really gives me pause. However, the Texans are getting even more points when I look online and will only have something to play for if the Chiefs lose so I’m going to stick with the Titans and hope this isn’t going to make me look very daft.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Colts @ Jaguars (+3.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars might have beaten the Raiders after Tom Coughlin was let go but they lost against the Falcons last week and in their final game of season they face an Indianapolis Colts team who won big against the Panthers in week sixteen. I can’t read too much into that game as the Colts had lost their previous four, but the Colts are 18.9% better by DVOA and so whilst I really don’t like this line, I am going to back the Colts to cover it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Cardinals @ Rams (-7.5)

The LA Rams have had a strange year, and were competitive last week against the 49ers but are outside the playoffs, although if they were an AFC team they would have a shot at a wildcard with their current 8-7 record. I think they are likely to win this game with the Arizona Cardinals looking at playing without Kyler Murray who has sustained a hamstring injury. However, this is a big line that the Rams have already covered once this season. I’m actually seeing a better number online for the Rams despite the injury to Murray and that makes me pause but I can’t quite bring myself to back the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Eagles @ Giants (+4.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles simply need to win this game to make the playoffs, but the New York Giants come into this game having won two straight since rookie quarterback Daniel Jones returned to the starting lineup from injury. The Eagles recent wins are not exactly against impressive opposition and so whilst I think the Eagles are likely to win this game, the points make me nervous enough to take the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Eagles

Steelers @ Ravens (+2.5)

This is an interesting game in that it will be curious to see how the Baltimore Ravens run their offence with Lamar Jackson sitting, but the Pittsburgh Steelers simplest path to the playoffs is the Titans losing and them winning this game. Given the situation with the Ravens sitting Jackson this is definitely possible, but the line I am seeing online has shrunk and so this is actually a better number for the Ravens, even if the Steelers only need a field goal to cover. I’m really torn on this one but Jackson has been so good that I think I have to nervously back the Steelers as the Ravens are just losing too much from their offence with Jackson on the bench.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

49ers @ Seahawks (+3.5)

The final game of the season pits two teams who still have something to play for against each other as a win for the Seahawks could see them seeded anywhere from first to third depending on other results whilst a loss would see them on the road as a wildcard team. However, with injuries at offensive tackle and running back this is an even trickier game than last time these two teams played. You don’t sign running back Marshawn Lynch out of retirement when things are going well. Meanwhile, the 49ers may have lost three of their last seven games, but they have also won two tight games against good teams in the last three and enter this game as favourites for a reason. However, despite the 49ers not covering this sized line in four weeks, I can’t quite bring myself to back the Seahawks given the injury situation and so I am reluctantly backing the 49ers who will be looking to try to secure the first seed if they can.

Gee’s Pick:        49ers
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Here we are in the penultimate week of the picks competition, although the trivia will roll right into the postseason.

‘The Kansas City Chiefs were originally known by what name?’

I could be wrong on this one again as I’m not an expert on the early history of football but I do not remember any move or other name of the Kansas City franchise coming up so I am going suggest that Dan’s Dad is living up to his devious moniker and that the original is in fact the Chiefs.

‘I’m really stuck with this. I don’t know anything really about KC’s history (note to self, research just in case for next year!) so I’m going to have to guess something which rolls off the tongue. I’ll guess they were previously the Kansas City Cowboys but I’m 99% sure that’s wrong.’

Jaguars @ Falcons (-7.5)

Of the five wins that the Atlanta Falcons have this season, four of them have come in the last six weeks and they include sweeping the Panthers and beating the Saints and 49ers. The welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who won last week and who have just fired Tom Coughlin after the NFLPA announced that a quarter of all grievances their players had brought against NFL teams were against the Jaguars. I wonder if there will be some relief for the team now that Coughlin won’t be fining them anymore and this line is just too high for me given how up and down the Falcons had been.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Bengals @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Dan and I have been very aware of this matchup all season, even more so when it became clear that both teams looked to be in with a chance of the first pick. With their one win the Bengals have the inside straight to the number one pick yet somehow this number favours the Bengals even though I don’t think they are the better team and I think Brian Flores has looked the better coach. I’m really not sure about this line so the only thing I can do is back my team and hope for bragging rights.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Ravens @ Browns (+10.5)

This is a big line, but the Cleveland Browns are a mess and the Baltimore Ravens have the most wins in the NFL for a reason. The line worries me a little but having scored over forty points five times this season I think that with the extra rest coming off Thursday night that the Ravens cover this.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

Saints @ Titans (+2.5)

The New Orleans Saints looked really good last week whilst the Tennessee Titans lost against the Texans in the big AFC South matchup. However, the Saints have picked up a few injuries in the last couple of week and for all that he is a Fall of Fame quarterback, Drew Brees is not as good outside of a dome and so despite all that has gone on before – if you’re giving me points at home for a team that has played like the Titans in recent weeks I’m going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Panthers @ Colts (-6.5)

Despite their struggles in recent weeks, I don’t have a problem with the Indianapolis Colts being a favourite in this game and with a rookie quarterback starting for the Carolina Panthers I might even understand this line but it is too rich for my blood when I don’t trust either team at this point in the season.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Giants @ Washington (-2.5)

This is another game that has two teams that I don’t trust. The New York Giants got their third win of the season last week giving Eli Manning an emotional send off in what looks like the last home game of his career. However, it looks like Daniel Jones could come back from his ankle injury this week as the Giants travel to Washington to take on another bad team. There were people who reported that Dwayne Haskins looked better last week, even if Washington did lose the game but I have no strong feeling on this game. As is the case with these things though, I’m seeing this as a much more advantageous line for the Giants with a 3.5 swing from what I’m seeing online against this number so based on that I’m taking the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Steelers @ Jets (+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers may have lost last week but they are the better team and so whilst the New York Jets will want to put in a better performance than the one that saw them lose by twenty-one points to the Ravens last week, I like the Steelers to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Lions @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Detroit Lions have now lost seven games straight and so I can see why the Broncos could be favoured, but they have only five wins themselves and have a cluster of injuries on the offensive line. I really don’t have a strong feel for this game, and my instinct is to not trust the Broncos to cover this line but this is a half point better line that I’m seeing online so the number suggests that the Broncos is the way to go but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. Stay away folks, stay away!

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5)

I don’t like either team particularly at the moment and this is a curious game as the Raiders have lost rookie running back Josh Jacobs for the rest of the season as well as the previous four games, but will likely have more fans in the crowd than the LA Chargers. However, the Chargers have one less win and have been almost the model of inconsistency. I like the Chargers to win but I just don’t trust them to win by six points and so even though this line is good value for the Chargers, I still can’t quite bring myself to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Cowboys @ Eagles (+2.5)

This is a big game in terms of the NFC East, but the Philadelphia Eagles have been overwhelmed by injuries whilst the Dallas Cowboys have been massively inconsistent. The Cowboys would be an easy pick were it not for the injury to Dak Prescott who hasn’t thrown all week as he has picked up a shoulder problem. With the injury I would stay well away from this game if I could, but as I have to pick I’m going go with the better team by DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Arizona Cardinals got their first win in seven games las week, but I am not sure they are going to follow that up with a win in Seattle. However, the Seahawks have not been as dominant at home this season and whilst I expect them to win, this line feels big to me and so whilst I could feel foolish tomorrow, I like the Cardinals to keep this divisional game within ten.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Chiefs @ Bears (+5.5)

Don’t look now, but the Kansas City Chiefs’ defence is now ranked eleventh in the league by DVOA and if you combine that with their offensive fire power then they are a formidable team. The Chicago Bears really need this win, but they are 27.1% worse than the Chiefs and I think they will struggle in this one, even if they are at home as the Chiefs have plenty of experience of playing in the cold.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Packers @ Vikings (-4.5)

This game will go a long way to deciding the NFC North, particularly if the Packers win but it’s a strange one to pick as the Minnesota Vikings are a good home team and the Green Bay Packers have won but look slightly off on offence. In fact, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like Aaron Rodgers at the moment, and I think the Vikings are the favourites but this line concerns me. I may come to regret this, but I’m not sure I can bring myself to back the Vikings to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

It’s time for a quick run through our week fifteen picks picks, but first there the small matter of our very tight trivia competition.

‘In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?’

I’m really not sure about this one, I think I have a vague feeling that after the first year the Jaguars were surprisingly successful for an expansion team, but this is another of those you have to know questions and I don’t. I’m going to go for three seasons as that’s the number that popped into my head first, but I feel like I have a one in four chance of being right and I’m not happy that I’ve plucked the right number out of the air.

‘This is going to be one of those ‘one way or the other’ questions where it’s either more than you might think, or none. I think I’m going to go high, but I don’t think it will have been all five years, so I’ll guess at 4. Complete guess though!’

Bears @ Packers (-4.5)

The Green Bay Packers may have three more wins and be playing at home but I’m not sure there is this much difference between the two teams and so with Mitch Trubisky playing better I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Patriots @ Bengals (+9.5)

This is a really awkward pick because the New England Patriots are unlikely to lose three games straight, and could well beat the Cincinnati Bengals by ten points or a lot more, plus the number has moved so that this actually offers value to pick the Patriots but the Bengals haven’t lost by more than eight points in four weeks.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have not been healthy all year and whilst Patrick Mahomes will play, he suffered a hand injury last week so whilst I like the Chiefs to win the game, going against a Denver Broncos team who are on a two game win streak I am going to back the division rivals to keep the game within eleven points.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Buccaneers @ Lions (+3.5)

I hate this particular line as we know the Detroit Lions are really struggling, you don’t lose six games in a row if things are going well, but looking at the lines this is an advantageous number to pick the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The issue there is that I have no faith in them given their inconsistencies and so if I do pick them I am beholden to Jameis Winston. If I had the option to, I would run a mile from picking this game, but I don’t so I guess I have to pick the Bucs…

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Texans @ Titans (-2.5)

Both the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans have an 8-5 record so this is the first of a huge pair of games between these two teams that could well decide the fate of the AFC South. The Texans have been up and down this season, as they have been for most of head coach Bill O’Brien’s tenure, whilst the Titans have won four straight and are one of the form teams of the NFL at the moment. I’m going take the team I think have been consistently better.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Dolphins @ Giants (-3.5)

The New York Giants come into this game as slight favourites, which is surprising given that they have lost nine straight games, although they did take the Eagles into overtime last week. However, they are welcoming the Miami Dolphins who only have one more win and are a lot worse by DVOA, but I think if you ask anyone following the league you would rather be in the Dolphins situation than the Giants. The Dolphins are not built for winning this season but Brian Flores looks like the real deal as a coach and so that sways me in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Eagles @ Washington (+5.5)

This is a strange game where thanks to the long-standing problems of the franchise in the nation’s capital, it is likely that there will be more Philadelphia Eagles fans in the crowd than home fans. It does seem that Washington has stabilised under Bill Callahan, but this doesn’t mean that they are a good team. However, neither are the Eagles, who through injury and loss of coaching staff look a pale imitation of the team that won a Super Bowl two seasons ago. This seems a lot of points to be laying on the road for a team who needed overtime to beat the Giants last week, but Washington have picked up some injuries as well as lacking roster talent. The numbers say take the Eagles so that’s what I’m gong to do, but I really don’t want to.

Gee’s Pick:        Eagles
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Seahawks @ Panthers (+5.5)

Teams who fire their coach often get a bounce, but this very much did not happen last week for the Carolina Panthers who clearly held Ron Rivera in high regard. This week they welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who got beat badly by the Rams last week. I’m concerned about this number of points but I think the Seahawks are in a much better place right now and will be looking to make amends for last week’s showing.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Browns @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I don’t want to pick the Cleveland Browns laying points on the road, but I think I am going to have to as the Arizona Cardinals have fallen from a promising 3-3-1 to 3-9-1, although they have faced a lot of good teams. That said, the nearest they cam to covering this line was against the Buccaneers and they failed that so I’m going to hold my nose and back the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:        Browns
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Jaguars @ Raiders (-6.5)

I hate this line, I have no faith at all in either team right now, but whilst this is a lot of points for a team like the Oakland Raiders to be laying, the Jacksonville Jaguars have lost five straight by seventeen or more points and so in the end there’s only one team I can bring myself to pick.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Vikings @ Chargers (+2.5)

The LA Chargers are the eighteenth ranked team by DVOA and the Minnesota Vikings are the seventh ranked team. The LA Chargers have very little home field advantage and Philip Rivers has not been playing well. The Vikings may have lost four games, and should still install more confidence but something about Kirk Cousins makes you worry but with the Vikings only need to win by a field goal I’m going to go with who I think is the better team.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Falcons @ 49ers (-10.5)

I hate this line as the San Francisco 49ers have proved themselves to be one of the best teams in the NFL and are coming off an amazing win away at the Saints. They have also just lost their starting centre for the season and I wonder if this is too many points. The problem is that the Atlanta Falcons are not a good team, but have won three out of their last five games. This is the first non-divisional game they have played since their bye week, which only makes that last period harder to evaluate. I’m not as convinced of the gap between these two teams as I was between the Ravens and Jets and having got away with one enormous points cover I’m not going to tempt fate again, although I can absolutely see the 49ers proving me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Rams @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are not a good football team right now, but they only have to be better than the Eagles to make the playoffs. I’m not sure the Rams are going to make the playoffs despite having a better record, but they seem to have found something in the last few weeks and so with a line as close as this I’m going to back the better coach.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Bills @ Steelers (-2.5)

This could be an ugly game to watch as both teams have strong defences and limited offences, but I respect both coaches and this should be a truly competitive game. I’m seeing this line as getting an extra point and a half and so for that reason alone I’m going to back the Bills but Mike Tomlin has done an excellent job with his team and it would not surprise me at all if the Steelers actually won.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Colts @ Saints (-9.5)

The line I am seeing online has actually come down a little, and so by my process that should mean backing the Indianapolis Colts, but I am really not sure about that. Given the retirement of Andrew Luck the Colts have been impressively competitive thanks to a well-constructed roster but the only game they have won in the last six weeks was against the Jaguars as key injuries are hampering them as well as kicking woes. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints are definitely a good team as their 10-3 record clearly demonstrates, but the points worry me. The Saints scored a lot against the 49ers last week but also gave up a lot and so I don’t know if they can beat this line. I’m going to reluctantly take the points, but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

So I had a better week, but I’m still rooted to the bottom of the table whilst 3D extended his lead, but as he’s in the 99^th percentile in the ESPN game perhaps I shouldn’t be too upset to be trailing, but I’m going to keep fighting with three weeks left.

Jets @ Ravens (-14.5)

I’ve been on the road, come home and voted but running all kinds of late so I’m going to keep this short and sweet. The Ravens are a good team, the Jets are not. I’m seeing the Jets getting even more points than this online and so I’m picking the good team even if Lamar Jackson is on the injury report as what I’m seeing points to it not being a big deal. Fingers crossed tonight for more than one reason.

Gee’s Pick:     Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Jets

Week 9 Trivia

‘Week 14 is consigned to the archive and we stand ready for the final 3 weeks of the regular season and the maelstrom of the play-offs and Super Bowl. There is still, though, a lot to be decided in the coming weeks as only 3 teams have actually clinched anything.

The Picks returned a healthy 3 points between us ,which is above average despite there being some challenging spreads which caught us out. Interestingly our aversion to getting Thursday right has returned and a similar issue blights the Monday games also. There isn’t a modest way to report the scores this week as while Dan and Gee brought back a creditable 9 each my streak of good form continued with 12 to give me an 8 point advantage.  I don’t share the view that it’s all over as I’ve seen/had some calamitous collapses and 3 games can see a big swing.

The trivia though is most definitely wide open with just a point between the brains trust so the remaining games offer many potential twists and turns. This week I asked

Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?

The answer which both of them aced was, of course Baltimore. 

Well there has to be the odd easy question. This week, however, who knows?

For Week 15 we find ourselves in Jacksonville and what I’d like to ask is:

In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?

Next weeks report may be a little shorter than usual as having set the Jaguars question I should probably leave the country for a while and writing by a pool in Dubai is tough. Still someone had to do it!’

I am still annoyed about Thursday Night’s pick because if Dan and I have learnt anything about picking games in the last five years, it is that your first instinct is always better than changing your mind. Now, that is totally un-scientific and could even be wrong and some kind of confirmation bias, but it is yet another thing to account for when picking games. Yes we’re getting to the end of the regular season and yes, I am pretty competitive so first the trivia question and then the picks as I’m running out of time to catch up.

‘Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?’

I know this one as the Baltimore Colts were famously taken to Indianapolis, but the Colts’ marching band stayed together and played on until the original Cleveland Browns franchise was moved to Baltimore to became the Ravens.

‘Not happy at dropping 2 points last week, and I think Gee will know this one too as it’s quite an easy one. Instantly knew the answer this week – the Colts moved from Baltimore to Indianapolis, and were replaced by the Ravens in the mid 90s and impressively won the super bowl within about 4 or 5 years! I look forward to receiving my bonus points for all of that!’
Panthers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Carolina Panthers let go of head coach Ron Rivera this week and there is often a new coach bounce, but not as pronounced as in other sports as you can’t overhaul an American football team in the same way you can a football team as to a large extent you are tied to your playbook and personnel. Why do I mention this, because I don’t know what to do with this game. The Atlanta Falcons had a brief two week recovery but have lost two further games to fall to 3-9 but the Panthers’ current four game losing streak that includes last week’s loss to Washington was the last straw for David Tepper and why Rivera list his job. One of these losing streaks is likely to give and the Falcons are actually the better ranked team by DVOA, the points make me nervous but in a divisional game I’m going to reluctantly grab the home team but who knows…

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons
Ravens @ Bills (+5.5)

This is my matchup of the week as the Buffalo Bills and their sixth ranked defence by DVOA welcomes the Baltimore Ravens who currently head up the DVOA rankings and look like the best team in the NFL. I am really looking forward to this game and the Ravens can put up points against anyone but the Bills are 9-3 for a reason and whilst I think the Ravens are more likely to win, I like getting this many points at home as the Bills defence is really good.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Ravens
Bengals @ Browns (-8.5)

I’m not getting carried away by last week’s win for the Cincinnati Bengals, and this week they are on the road taking on the Cleveland Browns, but this is a lot of points for a 5-7 team to be laying when possibly the only thing we know about the Browns is they can’t be trusted. The Browns absolutely have the talent to cover this line and may well do so but I’m not picking it.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals
Broncos @ Texans (-9.5)

The Denver Broncos were a little lucky to beat the Chargers last week and now travel to face the Houston Texans coming off a win against the Patriots. I like the Texans to win this game as they are the better team by eye test and DVOA but this line makes me nervous. The Texans have a top ten offence by DVOA but their defence ranks twenty-fifth, whilst the Broncos have damn near the reverse offensive/defensive rankings and have lost four games by ten points. I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Texans
Lions @ Vikings (-13.5)

The Detroit Lions have lost five straight and may have extra rest having played on Thanksgiving, but a road trip to the Minnesota Vikings is not the kind of game to get right when you’re starting quarterback is still recovering from an injury. This is a lot of points, but the Vikings still have a good home field advantage and even missing Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook hurting his shoulder last week, I’m going to back them in this one and hope I’m not misjudging these teams.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Lions
Washington @ Packers (-12.5)

I imagine this line is based in part on the Green Bay Packers big win against the Giants last week, but whilst the franchise is still a mess, Washington come into this game on a two-game winning streak. I’m not expecting an upset but the Packers have only covered this size line twice this season and I think Washington can keep the game close.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington
Colts @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

I hate this line and game from a picks perspective as these two teams are next to each other in the DVOA rankings with the Indianapolis Colts struggling the last few weeks thanks to injury and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing inconsistently all season but have won three of their last four games. I don’t have a strong read on this game at all and so I’m going to grab the team I trust a little more, but I have no idea if this is a good idea.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts
Dolphins @ Jets (-5.5)

The New York Jets lost to the Bengals last week and looked bad doing it as the injuries finally became too much. I don’t entirely trust my gut on this, but Brian Flores is definitely a good coach having got three wins with a team that ranks dead last in DVOA and a fair way behind the Bengals in thirty-first place. I think this is too many points for a team who just lost to the Bengals to be laying and so I’m going to pick the Dolphins for another week.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
49ers @ Saints (-2.5)

This is a cracking game that pits two of the best NFC teams together and it’s a tricky one to pick as the San Francisco 49ers have won with a ferocious defence and enough offence. The Saints have a really good, well coached team and have the better quarterback but I think the 49ers might be better and getting this many points I’m going to grab them and hope.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Saints
Chargers @ Jaguars (+2.5)

I have no idea about this game as the LA Chargers continue to struggle and Philip Rivers look bad, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have no real identity and are going back to rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew as Nick Foles failed to give them a spark after coming back from injury. The Chargers are the experts in close losses and whilst I can definitely see them winning this one, I’m going to grab the home team getting points even if what I want to do is run a mile from picking this game.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Chargers
Titans @ Raiders (+2.5)

I might be overreacting to the two-game losing streak of the Oakland Raiders and the turn around of the Tennessee Titans since putting Ryan Tannehill in the starting lineup, but I think the Titans are the better team. The DVOA rankings agree with me and the this line is more advantageous than the ESPN one so I’m going to go with the Titans. Watch the Raiders win this one now…

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans
Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5)

The New England Patriots were fighting illness as well as playing the Texans last week, but one of the safer picks in the NFL is the Patriots coming off a loss. However, there are real problems with the Pats’ offence so I wonder how the Pats as a team keeps up with a Kansas City Chiefs team that has Patrick Mahomes back from injury and playing well. This could well be a big mistake as the Pats defence is playing really well too, and the Chiefs defence is only ranked fifteenth by DVOA but this is one where I’m going to trust my gut rather than second guess myself and I just hope that betting against Belichick and Brady isn’t going to look too foolish tomorrow.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Patriots
Steelers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are winning with tough defence and rookie quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges. They travel to face an Arizona Cardinals team who have now lost five straight. I’m not sure if the Steelers can make the playoffs as barring a big fall off from the Bills there looks to be only one wildcard spot left open in the AFC but I think the Steelers believe they can get there and I think despite their offensive struggles they cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers
Seahawks @ Rams (+1.5)

The LA Rams got back to winning ways last week with a convincing performance against the Arizona Cardinals but I still don’t trust them. The defence may well be third in the league by DVOA, but the problems have not been solved on offence and the Seattle Seahawks have three more wins for a reason. Divisional games can be funny and so I’m not rulling out the Rams cover or win, but I think there is a real gap between these teams and it would take more points than this to make me pick the other way.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks
Giants @ Eagles (-8.5)

This used to be one of the marquee matchups in the NFL, but not this year. It has been a while since the New York Giants were anything but bad, and this week injury has forced them back into starting Eli Manning and whilst he has handled his benching with class, it has been a several seaons since he has been a good quarterback. That said, the Philadelphia Eagles have not been good this season either, but interestingly are ranked tenth by DVOA and so this line is actually causing me problems. I would be surprised if the Giants won, even if the Eagles have lost three straight and we have to go back to week eight for a convincing win for the Eagles. However, whilst the line is big, it is actually a full point less than I’m seeing online and I just can’t trust the Giants.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Ealges

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.