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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Tag Archives: Picks Competition

Competition Thursday: 2022 Week Six

13 Thursday Oct 2022

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, NFL, Picks Competition, Washington Football Team

I am absolutely not taking things for granted, but we’re well over a quarter of the way through the season, we’re starting to get team byes and I’ve got a double digit lead in the picks competition. There’s still a long way to go but I can’t think of a much better way to start, even if can’t salve the Bengals’ stumbling start to the competition that matters.

On to week six!

Gee:Week 5:  10 – 6Overall:  43 – 37
Dan:Week 5:  5 – 11Overall:  32 – 48

Washington @ Bears (-0.5)

I am looking forward to watching these teams again and seeing the changes in both of them. However, picking it is a different matter entirely, particularly when the line truly is giving us nothing to work with. I’m not sure what Dan’s rationale is, but mine is that the Bears are at home on a short week and haven’t had their head coach throwing their quarterback under the bus, but that isn’t exactly convincing.

I guess in a week where the Chiefs are playing the Bills I shouldn’t complain about this matchup too much.

Gee’s Pick:     Bears
Dan’s Pick:     Bears

Survivor Competition

Dan made the mistake of trusting the AFC South last week and so got his second elimination of the season with the Texans beating the Jaguars. Meanwhile two weeks of comparatively safe picks has seen me at least drag myself back into contention and whist it might come back to bite me later in the season, I’m going to continue that trend with the Buccaneers taking on the struggling steelers, while Dan has opted for the Vikings visiting his Dolphins.

Current Score

Gee: 2
Dan: 2

Week 6 Selection:

Gee:    Buccaneers @ Steelers
Dan:    Vikings @ Dolphins

Bold Prediction of the Week

I hate this process and so tend to pull my bold prediction out the ether when Dan asks me, which this week left me picking the Jets to beat the Packers, which in the cold light of day is certainly bold, and possibly foolish but I don’t think impossible.

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2022 Week Four Picks

02 Sunday Oct 2022

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Andrew Whitworth, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, NFL, Picks Competition, Tua Tagovailoa, Week 4 Picks, Willie Anderson

It’s been a weird few days for one reason or another. I’ve found the Tua situation hanging over my response to the Bengals win as with the failures that enabled him to be on the field Thursday night and the potential second concussion really made me feel complicit. This sits in contrast to my reaction to an excellent podcast interview with Willie Anderson and Andrew Whitworth ahead of the same Bengals’ game as they are the good and bad side of this sport I love.

I’m away this weekend so I’m going to drop my picks now, will fill Dan’s in at a later point, and will see if I can find time to unpick my feelings in more detail with a specific post.

Early Games:

I’ve seen plenty of Saints and Viking fans in London this week ahead of the first UK game this season.

Vikings @ Saints (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Vikings
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

And the rest:

Browns @ Falcons (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Browns
Dan’s Pick:     Browns

Washington @ Cowboys (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:     Cowboys

Seahawks @ Lions (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:     Seahawks

Titans @ Colts (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Titans
Dan’s Pick:     Titans

Bears @ Giants (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Bears
Dan’s Pick:     Bears

Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:     Eagles

Jets @ Steelers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Steelers

Bills @ Ravens (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Chargers @ Texans (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Chargers

Late Games:

Cardinals @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Packers (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Broncos
Dan’s Pick:     Broncos

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Chiers

Monday Night Football

Rams @ 49ers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Rams 
Dan’s Pick:     Rams

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2022 Week Three Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2022

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 3 Picks

So we all picked the Steelers getting that many points and saw it lose, even though having watched the game I feel with a couple of very possible different breaks the Steelers could very easily have covered against the Browns so I certainly don’t feel like we were wrong. Still, our attention turns to the rest of the week’s games and there’s a few games where the picks are tricky but plenty I’m curious about.

I will say that I appear to have a lot of road teams this week, but I try to pick based on the numbers and what I think of the matchup so let’s see how week three goes.

Early Games:

There’s a few high lines in the early slate of games, but I think the Bills visiting the Dolphins will be closer than the line thinks despite the Bills’ hot start to the season, whilst I think the opposite of the Colts hosting the Chiefs. I’m curious about the results between the Ravens visiting the Patriots and properly concerned about the Bengals visiting the Jets.

I think the other game from the Bengals visiting the Jets that I will be watching from this group is the Texans at Bears as I’m still curious about both teams, and one of the first missions for me during the early part of the season is to get every non-AFC North team watched once as I’ll see plenty of the Browns, Ravens and Steelers anyway.

Texans @ Bears (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Raiders @ Titans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Colts (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cheifs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Ravens @ Patriots (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Bengals @ Jets (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Late Games:

I’m genuinely surprised about the line between the Chargers and the Jaguars as between the issues the Chargers had had one the offensive line and the improved competence the Jaguars have shown, I feel like this will be a closer game than the points suggests. The consensus of lines I’m seeing online agrees with me so while I do expect the Chargers to win, I like the Jaguars to be within a touchdown. I’ve gone back and forth on the Rams and Cardinals and could have easily gone with the Cardinals at home with them being that half point over the field goal, but I have a number going the other way so I’m nervously going with the Rams.

The other game I am watching this week is the Packers at Buccaneers, where I’m backing the Packers to keep moving on from their bad opening week loss and the fact that the Tom Brady weirdness is continuing, and they are without Mike Evans this week through suspension. The pick does make me nervous but I’m really looking forward to watching both teams for the first time this season.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Falcons @ Seahawks (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

49ers @ Broncos (+1.5)

The Broncos have got off to a rough start, whilst perversely the loss of their starting quarterback Trey Lance perhaps raises the floor of the 49ers. Whilst the Broncos offence is still looking disjointed and rookie head coach Nathanial Hackett is making questionable decisions I’m going to back the 49ers on the road in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Monday Night Football

Cowboys @ Giants (-2.5)

I hated picking this game so much. I like the start the Giants have had to the season, and I think they are beginning to build something, but it is the start of a very big job given how bad they have been in recent seasons. The Cowboys are in a worse position than I was expecting this season thanks to the Dak Prescott injury, but Cooper Rush got the job done running the offence last week, ably helped by the Bengals awful start to the season and inability to cope with Micah Parsons’ pass rush. My instinct and heart is with the Giants, and I can definitely see them winning this game, but the numbers are saying Cowboys for the cover and whilst its early to have the numbers overrule my head, particularly as I’d really like to be getting three, I’m going to trust the numbers for now…

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2021 Week Four Picks

03 Sunday Oct 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Competition Thursday, NFL, Picks Competition, Week 4 Picks

I was ill enough during the week to drive a coach and horses through my blog schedule for the week so I have a large number of things to cover in a single post so I guess I will be going broad but shallow this week.

I extended my lead over Dan with a decent week of picks after a poor week two so let’s see if I can settle into a system or if it’s going to be a week to week season.

Gee:Week 3:  12 – 4Overall:  28 – 20
Dan:Week 3:  8 – 8Overall:  23 – 25

The Thursday night game saw the Bengals win a game 24-21 having gone in at half time down two touchdowns having scored nothing. Until recently that would have meant a loss but there does seem to be something different about this year’s Bengals. I’m not suddenly pencilling them into the Super Bowl, but Joe Burrow is reminding everyone why people were excited about him and to get this win with the injuries in the secondary on a short week is a good step forward. As for the Jaguars, they obviously had a good first half, but they look a ways away from winning regularly and it could take some time. It’s too early to truly judge Urban Myer as a coach, but it has been rough early and this was always a long term project so it might not get better for a while. You can also see given Myer’s offseason moves and some of his comments why there is already speculation.

Survivor Competition

Dan got his first point on the board this week with the selection of the Cardinals going against the Jags whilst I would still be standing in a standard survivor pool so let’s see both how long I can keep that going and if Dan can catch me. I’m plumping for the Saints at home for the first time this season against a Giants team who have injuries and a troubled start to the season. Dan is going for Bills to beat the Texans which seems a solid selection to me!

Current Score

Gee: 3
Dan: 1

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Saints
Dan:    Bills

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction for this week was to take the Detroit Lions getting their first win on the road against the Chicago Bears. It’s certainly bold, and I’m not entirely sure it won’t happen either, but let’s see.

Early Games:

I’m still at the stage where I’m seeing most of the games as having something interesting but in the interests of keeping it short, I’ll cover what I can in a brief manner.

The matchup of the early games for my mind is the Carolina Panthers visiting the Dallas Cowboys to put their unbeaten record on the line against the 2-1 NFC East leaders. This should be a great game given how well the two teams are playing, particularly as the line is very much leaning to the Cowboys, while the Panthers are the number one team by DVOA and are both eight places and 18.5% higher than their opponents. The Cowboys have competent defence this season to go along with an explosive passing attack, which should be a really interesting matchup against the league’s top defence by DVOA. I think you likely lean Cowboys to win the game as I’m not that convinced by Sam Darnold and the Panthers are also missing Christian McCaffery with a hamstring problem, but it still should be a cracking game and the Panthers could well spring a surprise.

Points from the rest:

  • The Falcons got their first win last week but are not convincing yet so is this a game where Washington can get right after a difficult start to the season or will their problems continue on the road.
  • The Bills are understandable favourites against the Texans, but 16.5 is a huge number of points to lay so whilst I doubt rookie quarterback Davis Mills can get his first win on the road, he didn’t look that bad last week and I wonder if there is a sneaky cover to be had here.
  • The Bears offence was woeful last week, and the questions are understandably on the coaches at this point. The Lions might be viewed as a get right team but equally, this could be a game that’s a big trap for the Bears, particularly as these two teams are right next to each other in overall DVOA.
  • The Miami Dolphins have had a rough start to the season, but the Colts have been even rougher and starting a quarterback with two sprained ankles and limited time with his new team in the pre-season doesn’t inspire confidence. At this point, a first win is a must for the Colts, but a top ten defence by DVOA might be enough for the Dolphins to deny them.
  • This is the other cracking matchup in the early games that in another week would have been featured. The Browns are the number two team by DVOA and are heading to take on a Vikings team whose record is probably worse than their performance. This should be a cracking game, well worth a watch and whilst I understand the Browns being favoured, the Vikings getting points at home looks a good selection to me
  • I don’t think the Giants are getting the answers they were hoping for about Daniel Jones thanks to a combination of coaching and injuries, but there are wider problems for this franchise. It’s hard to see them beating the Saints, even if Jameis Winston has shown us the usual high and lows of his play dispite now having Sean Payton as his coach.
  • The New York Jets have shown glimmers of what could be, but it was already a mutli-year rebuild project before the injuries started and after a shut out they will be desperate to do better at home against the Titans. The Titans are not a good team, but should have enough to win this one, but I’m not sure that includes winning by eight.
  • The Chiefs are another team who’ve had a rough start to the season, which is unusual for Andy Reid who has an impressive record in September but the Chiefs’ defence is rooted to the bottom of the DVOA rankings and even with Patrick Mahomes you can’t outscore that. However, the Eagles started picking up injuries and quarterback Jalen Hutrs needs to be more consistent passing the ball before the Eagles can truly start to compete and so I find it hard to believe they will win this game.

Washington @ Falcons (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Texans @ Bills (-16.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Bears (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Panthers @ Cowboys (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Colts @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Browns @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Giants @ Saints (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Titans @ Jets (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Chiefs @ Eagles (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Late Games:

There’s a couple of intriguing games in the late slot but the pick for me once again has to feature the LA Rams, this time hosting the also unbeaten Arizona Cardinals. The Rams have been explosive on offence and good enough on defence, which is interesting as when you start comparing these two teams’ DVOA rankings the Rams are ranked first in offence, but the Cardinals are top ten in all three phases of the game and are only 0.3% worse overall. I’m not sure if the Cardinals can win the game on the road, but this looks to be a cracking game and I think there’s a decent chance the Cardinals can keep this to within six.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Seahawks have not quite come together yet and will be hoping to peg back the 49ers in their bid to stay in the race for the play-offs. The 49ers have not entirely convinced either so this should be an interesting demonstration of where these two teams stand.
  • The unbeaten Denver Broncos host the Ravens this week in their first true test of the 2021 season. The early DVOA ranking are somewhat volatile as they don’t have all the opponent adjustments factored in, so I totally understand why the line sees the Ravens as the better team but I’m curious to see how this plays out on the football field. It’s certainly not beyond Vic Fangio to scheme up a defence capable of stymieing the Ravens’ multi-faceted rush attack as well as their passing game, but can Teddy Bridgwater maintain the Broncos offensive success against the Ravens defence?
  • The Steelers look to be in trouble with the offence looking how it did at the end of last season and the defence struggling against the Bengals last week minues TJ Watt. There are still doubts about the Packers after their opening loss of the season and how the defence has looked, but a good win here would further settle some of those anxieties and I suspect that is what will happen, even if you should never count out Mike Tomlin’s Steelers.

Cardinals @ Rams (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Seahawks @ 49ers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Ravens @ Broncos (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Steelers @ Packers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Buccaneers @ Patriots (+6.5)

From a narrative point of view the undisputed game of the week is the return of Tom Brady to New England with his Super Bowl winning Buccaneers. Things have not gone perfectly for the Bucs this season, particularly as they have been struggling to defend the pass and were fairly straightforwardly beaten by the Rams last week. However, their offence has looked good and there is a solid 31.8% between the teams in overall DVOA, which accounts for them laying six and a half pints. Ordinarily getting this many points at home would be a no brainer selection of the Patriots, but even with the selection of Mac Jones looking to have provided the long-term successor to Brady at quarterback for the Patriots, there is still a lot of development for the Pats to go and whilst I wouldn’t bet against them being in the playoff hunt by December, I’m not there with them right this second. Mind you, I would not exactly be surprised if Belichick makes me regret this pick come Monday morning either…

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Monday Night Football

Raiders @ Chargers (-.3.5)

This should be a cracking divisional game to finish off the week as the unbeaten Las Vegas Raiders head over to LA to face a Chargers teams coming off an impressive win against the Chiefs last week. However, right now the Raiders’ defence ranks eleventh by DVOA so might be able to do a better job against Justin Herbet than the Chiefs managed. Derek Carr has been playing better than the Vegas offensive ranking of seventeenth might indicate and the Chargers have not demonstrated that they are a defensive monster just yet. I don’t have a strong lean in either direction on this one so I’m grabbing the extra half point for a pick, but I am really looking forward to watching this game.

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Eight

29 Thursday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Picks Competition, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8 Picks

Well, week seven was pretty good to me as I picked up three points on Dan so I achieve my next target of getting his lead down to single digits so now I need to get within a couple of points and we’ll have a proper competition. There’s plenty of time left so let’s get to work on week eight’s competition Thursday.

Gee:Week 7:  7 – 7Overall:  49 – 57
Dan:Week 7:  4 –10Overall:  56 – 50

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is an odd game to pick as both teams are coming off a loss, but the Atlanta Falcons only have one win this season and the Panthers have now established themselves as a competitive franchise despite the rebuild on defence and the number of veterans who left or retired in the off-season. The consensus lines and numbers are suggesting I take the Falcons and they did run the Lions close in week seven, but right now I have a lot more faith in the Panthers and as they are ranked eight places better than the Falcons by DVOA and are at home on a Thursday night I am going to go for the Panthers as they only have to win by a field goal to cover this line. I am aware that my old maxim of always back the home team on a Thursday night unless there was a really good reason to didn’t hold up, but I have a lot more faith in the coaching of the Panthers so that is where I am putting my faith.

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Survivor Competition

We held serve last week with the strategy of picking against the Jets maintaining a 100% record, and there is little to suggest that will change this week with them taking on the Chiefs, but having lost with the Chiefs against the Raiders earlier this season I have to look. somewhere else in week eight. Looking at the matchups and the teams I have left I think my best option is to select the Packers hosting the Vikings and just hope I don’t’ get any divisional weirdness. Dan has gone in a different direction grabbing the Buccaneers visiting the Giants, which certainly makes sense as a pick.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 8 Selection:

Gee:    Packers
Dan:    Buccaneers

Bold Prediction of the Week

So Dan allowed both of my bold predictions on the podcast this week  in a triumph of doing some preparation ahead of recording, but also ensuring I have to keep doing something I fundamentally disagree with.

My first prediction was the Tua Tagovailoa will have more passing yards against the Rams than fellow rookie quarterback Justin Herbert will against the Broncos.

Secondly, the Bills will score more points this week against the Patriots than they did against the Jets in week seven.

Competition Thursday Will Never be the Same Again

10 Thursday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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3D, Dan's Dad, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, NFL Trivia, Picks Competition, Week 1 Picks

It has been a strange week in a bizarre year. The NFL pre-season has both taken forever then flown by without games and suddenly the season opens tonight.

However, sadly one of the TWF team is not here to see it as Dan’s Dad, current Picks Competition Champion and Trivia Master passed away earlier in the week.

I have already written this pre-season of the power of sports to bring people together, and not only does it do that, but at its best it can provide a scaffolding for friendships and family. Going to the football with your dad for the first time and being enthralled by the green of the grass. The connection to your cricket loving gran and a shared bond through Test Match Special that means the TMS team are never far away from making you think of her, and tears in your eyes when England win the world cup and wishing she’d been here to see it. Taking your nephew to see the Baggies and being responsible for an excited seven-year-old on your own for the first time.

Dan and I met through music. We were the rhythm section for a Leicester band no-one remembers. Making music together is another quick way to tie people together. There’s a vulnerability when creating together that quickly forms a bond if entered into in the right spirit. We stayed in touch even after the band broke up, and a shared love of the NFL led to Super Bowls spent texting each other and so when I was setting up an NFL blog it seemed natural to ask if he would picks games with me to give this blog a structure.

Clearly it worked as six years later we are still here!

About eighteen months after that, Dan came to me and said he fancied doing a podcast and The Wrong Football podcast was born. Early on (I’d have to go back and check to be sure, and I’m really not sure I want to listen to those early pods) Dan’s Dad sent a question to his son and in no time at all a segment was formed and continued, even when the podcast went on hiatus where it transferred to my Competition Thursday posts.

To be honest, a lot of the time it felt like Dan & I taking on 3D as he became known to me (Devious Dan’s Dad) and he won not one but two picks seasons as the trivia flowed on, testing us, sometimes relenting if we were scoreless for too many weeks in a row, but never easing up for long.

The picks wins are the reason that the site is currently in Vikings’ purple and gold, and at some point, I will work out what to do on here to mark his memory, but the colours are his for this season by right as well as sentiment.

Dan’s Dad wrote a great post about his own fandom, eerily titled Th… Th… That’s All Folks! that I would suggest you read for a look into NFL fandom from a different time. I’m sure I will read it again when I can bring myself to.

I am going to miss being stumped by his trivia, and the weekly emails during the season, as well as our WhatsApp group chats. Of course, Dan is going to miss his dad and Dan’s children are not going to remember their grandad. Oh, the stories we are going to tell them, so they know some of the man.

There is no easy way to turn this back to Competition Thursday.

A regular post that I will always associate with 3D.

The is the second post that has reduced me to tears this season, and we haven’t even seen a game yet, but I have a feeling it won’t be the last.

Find someone close and give them a hug is what Dan said earlier this week on twitter, and I cannot think of better sentiment.

In the meantime, as the season stops for no-one, and with a heavy heart, I will turn to the first Competition Thursday of the 2020 season.

Knowing full well that it will never be the same again.

Texans @ Chiefs (-10.5)

I have a feeling that our picks will be particularly turbulent through the start of the season as we have nothing to really guide us. The Chiefs have kept their core together whilst the ongoing issue of having a coach making personnel decisions makes me worry about the Texans. However, at this point what we have is a very big line, that is a point and a half over the consensus figure I have seen and so I’m going to make the numbers based play and look forward to what should be a really good game.

Dan is going the other way and could very well be right!

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Survivor Competition

We were already moving the trivia competition to the podcast so when the pod resumes next week so will the trivia. In its place on the blog we are going to run a friendly (I’m sure Dan and I will still desperately want to win) survivor competition. I’m running it via a spreadsheet across the season with a score to see who does best as there’s just the two of us, but we will still only be able to pick a team once for the season and unless Dan objects I think there should be a bonus point for whoever stays alive the longest.

However, this week both of us appear to have used the same logic, and picked the team playing the Jaguars. We shall see if this is a case of great minds think alike, or fools seldom differ.

Week 1 Selection:

Gee:     Colts
Dan:    Colts

Competition Thursday & The Disappointed Twenty: NFC Edition

02 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Bruce Allen, Bruce Arians, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Christian McCaffrey, Dallas Cowboys, Dan Snyder, Daniel Jones, Dave Gettleman, David Tepper, Detroit Lions, Disappointed Twenty, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Jason Garrett, Jay Gruden, Jim Caldwell, Kliff Kingsbury, Kyle Allen, Kyler Murray, LA Rams, Matt Patricia, Matt Stafford, Mitchell Trubisky, New York Giants, NFL, Pat Shurmur, Picks Competition, Ron Rivera, Sean McVay, Steve Keim, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Todd Gurley, Washington

Well the picks competition is over and for a second consecutive year since he started competing, Dan’s Dad is pick champion whilst I slipped back to third.

Dan’s Dad: Week 17:   6-10 Overall:   143-113
Dan: Week 17:   6-10 Overall:   136-120
Gee: Week 17:   7-9 Overall:   130-126

Looking back at last year I am three points worse whilst Dan has increased his score by eleven (I suspect through not blindly picking the Dolphins) whilst Dan’s Dad added a modest six to beat Dan by seven, which is a three point increase on his lead over me last season.

The moral of all this is that Dan and I will need to really step are games up next season if we’re stop the blog permanently being purple and gold. I’ll let 3D fill in the rest in his trivia write up, whilst I take a run through the teams from the NFC who left us this week.

The Disappointed Twenty: NFC Edition

The Dallas Cowboys have plenty of talent on the roster, but couldn’t convert good statistics into wins with clear issues in coaching. However, there is still no word out of Dallas about Jason Garrett losing his job despite everybody thinking it would happen. His contract doesn’t run out until later this month, but with a series of solid drafts the big question for next season is what is going to happen with the coach and until we know that, you can’t say too much about the Cowboys’ plans for next year, although they do have to make big decisions on who to re-sign.

The New York Giants had a tough season with a few scattered bright spots from rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, but clearly had a disappointing season finishing 4-12. After two consecutive losing season this has cost Pat Shurmur his job, but interestingly not Dave Gettleman. I mention Gettleman not because I have any wish to campaign for someone to be fired, but the Giants have not won for two season and Gettleman was responsible for picking Saquon Barkley with the second pick two years ago rather than taking a quarterback or even listening to offers. Even in last year’s draft he took Daniel Jones at a position much higher than he was predicted to go when he had a second pick in the first round to use on him. It’s hard to know what is going to happen in the off-season, but I don’t have a lot of faith in this franchise to make enough of the right decisions to improve drastically next season.

The seasons of failure continued in Washington, but Dan Snyder has certainly wasted no time in making changes having fired Jay Gruden earlier in the season. Gone from the front office is Bruce Allen whilst the news of new head coach Ron Rivera’s hiring was broken Monday and made official on Wednesday. There is a lot of work to turn around the culture in Washington and a lot will depend on who the new GM is and who has final say in drafting players and roster moves, but they do at least have an experienced coach who has always had a great relationship with his locker room.

The Chicago Bears finished 8-8 with third year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky failing to develop from last season. There are some big decisions coming with regards to their signal caller, and certainly the move to get him is not justifying itself yet so all eyes will be on him until he either proves himself or another player is given a go. It will be worth watching the Bears in the off-season to see if they make any moves at quarterback.

The Detroit Lions hired Matt Patricia to put them over the top having missed out on the playoffs with a 9-7 record under Jim Caldwell. Unfortunately, Patricia decided an overhaul was needed and the Lions have been rewarded with first a 6-10 season and now 3-12-1 so next season is a big one for Patricia who has kept his job. It may be that the saving grace for him was quarterback Matt Stafford being out for the latter half of the year, but the defence hasn’t been good (it’s never good for a head coach if their side of the ball is not great) and I imagine there will need to be a dramatic turnaround next season for there not to be big changes.

The Atlanta Falcons started the season 1-7 but managed to finish 7-9 and come second in the NFC South as the players seemed to rally round their head coach Dan Quinn and were successful in keeping him his job. However, I don’t know if they can turn things round in the off-season given that things haven’t really been right since they were in the Super Bowl and at some point there may need to be a change to get back to winning ways.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also finished 7-9, although they started 2-6 but their season can be summed up in the performance of Jameis Winston who threw for over five thousand yards and thirty touchdowns, but he also threw thirty interceptions. It feels like the positive statistics means that you have to re-sign Winston, but unless Bruce Arians can find a way to limit the turnovers it is hard to see the Bucs consistently win.

The Carolina Panthers had a rough season, starting with two losses before Cam Newton was sat with injuries that ultimately didn’t see him return to the field. The Panthers turned to backup quarterback Kyle Allen who was able to get the team back to a 5-3 record before things truly fell apart and they could not win another game this season. This led to Ron Rivera being fired before the end of the season, and has overshadowed the remarkable feat of running back Christian McCaffrey who managed to amass over a thousand yards rushing and receiving. New owner David Tepper says he wants to meld old school football toughness with modern analytics and is also overhauling the front office so we shall just have to see what this results in next year.

The LA Rams finished with a winning record, but could never quite compete with the Seahawks and 49ers in their division. They never fell below .500 but Todd Gurley does not look the same running back and as a result for much of the season Sean McVay couldn’t find the right balance on offence. He is still a really good coach, but there are now structural problems with the roster as they have a lot of money tied up Todd Gurley and Jared Goff. Neither player have really lived up to them, and there are other players who also need signing and not many draft picks to refresh the roster. The front office think they have a different formula to compete, but next season will be key to see if the franchise can bounce back or if things are going to go badly.

Finally, we have the Arizona Cardinals who got five wins in Kliff Kingsbury’s first season as an NFL head coach with rookie quarterback Kyler Murray showing promise. Given how much work was needed to improve the roster, it was no mean feat to improve their season record by two wins and a draw from last year given the quality of the other teams in the NFC West. However, they will need Steve Keim to have a good off-season if the Cardinals are to get enough talent for them to challenge for the playoffs and if they fail to make it for a fifth season then perhaps the position of Keim is the one that will need examining.

Wildcard Trivia

‘Greetings Friends

Week 17 has come and gone and the end of the Regular Season has delivered what we hope will be a juicy playoff series.

I will be keen to see if the Vikings can reverse their recent collapse of momentum against the Saints, but with the 49ers lying in wait this will be a big ask. Equally attractive is the Seahawks and Eagles vying for a match up at Green Bay. Yet again the NFC seems to deliver some meaty games.

In the AFC I am less excited by the Wildcard games, although never rule out the Pats is one lesson I’ve learned. The excitement though will be in the next games when the oft-unfancied Ravens and the Chiefs re-enter the battle.

I feel that the week’s gap for 4 teams can go either way. Momentum or recovery time can be important and this is one area where a coach earns their corn.

I’ll stick my neck out now and predict that Superbowl LIV will be contested between the Saints and the Chiefs with Kansas running out narrow winners. There, I’ve given you a stick to beat me with. Ho Hum never mind.

Talking of predictions the Picks competition also ended on Sunday and I agree with Gee’s comments in Thursdays post that week 17 is very difficult to call as some teams have nothing to play for while others would be desperate to position themselves well for either the Play-offs or, don’t forget, who will be on the roster for next year. Already we have seen the coaching merry-go-round starting up and I see this being a very busy closed season.

I think the mixed agendas contributed to one of the lowest scoring weeks we have had. What is pleasing though is that as a group we have increased the total of wins by 9 over last season. Dan and I managed a disappointing 6 each but the week was won by Gee on 7. But how I achieved a rank of 2253 in the whole competition I will never know. Maybe it proves I have a smarter pin than I thought.

One thing that is still running through the post season is the trivia quiz and in week 17 I set 2 questions both around LA Quarterbacks. They were:

I was the quarterback that led the Rams to a victory in the 2000 Super Bowl against the Tennessee Titans. I lost my starting job after I fumbled six times in the first game of the 2003 season. Who am I?

This was correctly identified by both Dan and Gee as Kurt Warner

Which Charger quarterback bounced back from a dismal 2003-04 season, winning the Comeback Player of the Year Award, throwing 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and landing himself a spot in the 2005 NFL Pro Bowl?

Here too they both named Drew Brees.

So 4 points each being Gee up to 19 and Dan 22.

This week I will drop in at 3 teams and again there is 2 points for each.

First we are at the Miami Dolphins, so no pressure here Dan.

After the Dolphins made it to Super Bowl VIII after the 1973 season, what was the next season they saw Super Bowl action?

Next we relocate to the Twin Cities to ask this about the Vikes.

Who did the Vikings play in their first Super Bowl, which was Super Bowl IV, played on January 11, 1970?

Finally this week it is the New England Patriots,

The Patriots moved and changed their name in 1971. What was the home city and their name prior to that?

Right then, that’s 2019 done and we look for a vision for 2020. Catch you next week’

2019 Week Seventeen Picks

29 Sunday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 17 Picks

There’s not too much riding on this week’s picks for me given how far I am behind, which is possibly a good thing as this is one of the hardest weeks to pick with many teams not having anything to play for and others resting players ahead of the start of the playoffs. At this time of the season pretty much everyone is going to be carrying some kind of injury and I never like trying to guess the motivation of players and coaches, but I will do my best to get as high a score as possible. Still, for once I feel relatively comfortable with the trivia questions:

‘I was the quarterback that led the Rams to a victory in the 2000 Super Bowl against the Tennessee Titans. I lost my starting job after I fumbled six times in the first game of the 2003 season. Who am I?

Which Charger quarterback bounced back from a dismal 2003-04 season, winning the Comeback Player of the Year Award, throwing 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and landing himself a spot in the 2005 NFL Pro Bowl?’

I think I know the answer to both of these questions, including the slightly sneaky second one, The first quarterback playing for the then San Diego Rams in an offence nicknamed the Greatest Show on Turf and was Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, whilst the second I believe is the future Hall of Famer who is now inextricably linked to the New Orleans Saints, but who started his career in San Diego – Drew Brees.

‘I think I know these this week, which I’m very pleased about so let’s see what Gee can do!

Question one is Hall of Famer Kurt Warner – he presents on the NFL Network now and he’s a very knowledgable guy but wouldn’t let viewers forget his Super Bowl ring! Doesn’t mention those fumbles though strangely enough!

Question two is the sure-to-be Hall of Famer, Drew Brees. Known of course now for his legendary career in New Orleans but he started life as a Charger and I think it would have been around this time.’

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

The first game in the week’s list makes me hesitate as the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at receiver didn’t hinder Jameis Winston that much last week as he threw for over three hundred yards, but he also threw four interceptions in a losing effort for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Houston Texans. This week the Bucs host the Atlanta Falcons who have won three straight and five of their last seven games, which some are saying is the team trying to save their coach. I don’t have the information to make such a statement but given the way these teams are playing, the Bucs’ injuries at receiver and Winston’s propensity for giving the ball away I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Jets @ Bills (-1.5)

The Buffalo Bills are locked up as the fifth seed and so technically don’t have anything to play for this week, except this is why the season now finishes with divisional games and it is hard to see head coach Sean McDermott not going for the win. Meanwhile the New York Jets have quietly won five of their last seven, but one of those losses was against the Bengals and I think the Bills are a much better team.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-6.5)

This is a game where nether team has much to play for. The Minnesota Vikings are locked into the sixth seed but will want to make amends after last week’s loss to the Packers, However, Dalvin Cook will still be sat out as they try to get his shoulder injury right for the playoffs so I wonder how much of a reaction there will be for the Vikings. The Chicago Bears meanwhile have been eliminated from the playoffs so this is a tricky road game for them. In this situation I am going to nervously grab the points as right now I can see the Vikings getting three and half points not giving away six and a half, which is a huge swing away from this line.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Browns @ Bengals (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns need to win this game to equal the number of wins they got last season, but they go into this off-season with a very different feel and I don’t know how they are going to react to a disastrous season of dysfunction, It certainly feels like the Cincinnati Bengals are set to take Joe Burrow in the new year having secured the number one pick in the draft. You only have to look at the comeback against the Dolphins last week to see how hard the players are still playing for the Bengals and there has not been the locker room discontent that you often hear from teams with a losing record so I am going to grab the points here and see if the Bengals can show something for next season.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Packers @ Lions (+10.5)

This might be a big line but the Green Bay Packers have a shot at the number one seed in the NFC and the Detroit Lions have now lost eight straight and you have to go four games back to find a game where the Lions would cover this line. I could regret this, but I am seeing an even bigger number online so I’m going to back the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Chargers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have won five straight but still need to secure the number three seed as they welcome an LA Chargers team in flux. The Chargers lost last week in front of so many Raider fans in their home stadium that they had to use a hard count and go into the off-season with big questions around their move yet alone their future with Philip Rivers finally looking his age and out of contract. I’m not sure what is going to happen in the off-season, but I’m pretty sure the Chiefs are going to win this game and I’m going to guess by enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-15.5)

The Miami Dolphins were three wins better than they needed to be to secure the first pick in the draft, but they still have plenty of draft capital to take advantage of and Brian Flores has impressed in his first year as a head coach. This is a tough game though as they head into New England to face a playoff bound Patriots team who looked a little better on offence last week. I don’t expect anything other than a Patriots win, but this is a huge line and it is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Saints @ Panthers (+13.5)

The New Orleans Saints are one of three teams who could secure the first seed in the NFC and who have looked good for most of the season, even with Drew Brees sitting for a number of games. This is a tricky line for me though as the Saints only beat the Carolina Panthers by three points in week twelve but the Panthers also lost by thirty-two points last week. I could come to regret this as the Saints will be motivated, but on the road facing a divisional opponent I’m going to say this is too many points and hope not to be proven an idiot.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Panthers

Washington @ Cowboys (-10.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are the seventh ranked team by DVOA, and by a lot of stats look to be a good team but this has not manifested itself into a good record. At 7-8 the Cowboys still have a slim chance of going to the playoffs but it relies on the Eagles losing as well as them beating Washington. The issue there is that Dak Prescott is struggling with a shoulder injury and did not look himself at all last week. As it turns out Washington also have quarterback problems with rookie Dwayne Haskins likely out with a high ankle sprain. I do see the Cowboys winning this game, but this line is simply too big for me to back the home team.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)

I have very little faith in the Oakland Raiders right now, but they did beat the LA Chargers last week. Yet at 7-8 they only have three more wins than last season and this is Jon Gruden’s second year. Perhaps they can turn things round next season and justify the long contract they gave Gruden, but right now they are the twenty-fourth ranked team by DVOA travelling to face the twenty-third ranked Denver Broncos. The Broncos have won three of their last four games and so you can see why they are the favourites in this game. I’m not confident in the result of this contest, and the Raiders do have an outside shot of making the playoffs but with Gruden talking about not rushing players back from injury I’m going to back the team with more wins over the last few weeks.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Titans @ Texans (+4.5)

The Tennessee Titans have control of their destiny as if they beat the Houston Texans they get into the playoffs. I think the reason that the Titans are favoured in this line is that the Texans’ receiver Will Fuller went down injured again last week and whilst the Texans still won, they look a very different team without Fuller to stretch the defence. I like the Titans to get the win despite losing their previous meeting, but this line really gives me pause. However, the Texans are getting even more points when I look online and will only have something to play for if the Chiefs lose so I’m going to stick with the Titans and hope this isn’t going to make me look very daft.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Colts @ Jaguars (+3.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars might have beaten the Raiders after Tom Coughlin was let go but they lost against the Falcons last week and in their final game of season they face an Indianapolis Colts team who won big against the Panthers in week sixteen. I can’t read too much into that game as the Colts had lost their previous four, but the Colts are 18.9% better by DVOA and so whilst I really don’t like this line, I am going to back the Colts to cover it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Cardinals @ Rams (-7.5)

The LA Rams have had a strange year, and were competitive last week against the 49ers but are outside the playoffs, although if they were an AFC team they would have a shot at a wildcard with their current 8-7 record. I think they are likely to win this game with the Arizona Cardinals looking at playing without Kyler Murray who has sustained a hamstring injury. However, this is a big line that the Rams have already covered once this season. I’m actually seeing a better number online for the Rams despite the injury to Murray and that makes me pause but I can’t quite bring myself to back the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Eagles @ Giants (+4.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles simply need to win this game to make the playoffs, but the New York Giants come into this game having won two straight since rookie quarterback Daniel Jones returned to the starting lineup from injury. The Eagles recent wins are not exactly against impressive opposition and so whilst I think the Eagles are likely to win this game, the points make me nervous enough to take the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Eagles

Steelers @ Ravens (+2.5)

This is an interesting game in that it will be curious to see how the Baltimore Ravens run their offence with Lamar Jackson sitting, but the Pittsburgh Steelers simplest path to the playoffs is the Titans losing and them winning this game. Given the situation with the Ravens sitting Jackson this is definitely possible, but the line I am seeing online has shrunk and so this is actually a better number for the Ravens, even if the Steelers only need a field goal to cover. I’m really torn on this one but Jackson has been so good that I think I have to nervously back the Steelers as the Ravens are just losing too much from their offence with Jackson on the bench.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

49ers @ Seahawks (+3.5)

The final game of the season pits two teams who still have something to play for against each other as a win for the Seahawks could see them seeded anywhere from first to third depending on other results whilst a loss would see them on the road as a wildcard team. However, with injuries at offensive tackle and running back this is an even trickier game than last time these two teams played. You don’t sign running back Marshawn Lynch out of retirement when things are going well. Meanwhile, the 49ers may have lost three of their last seven games, but they have also won two tight games against good teams in the last three and enter this game as favourites for a reason. However, despite the 49ers not covering this sized line in four weeks, I can’t quite bring myself to back the Seahawks given the injury situation and so I am reluctantly backing the 49ers who will be looking to try to secure the first seed if they can.

Gee’s Pick:        49ers
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Sixteen Picks

22 Sunday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 16 Picks

Here we are in the penultimate week of the picks competition, although the trivia will roll right into the postseason.

‘The Kansas City Chiefs were originally known by what name?’

I could be wrong on this one again as I’m not an expert on the early history of football but I do not remember any move or other name of the Kansas City franchise coming up so I am going suggest that Dan’s Dad is living up to his devious moniker and that the original is in fact the Chiefs.

‘I’m really stuck with this. I don’t know anything really about KC’s history (note to self, research just in case for next year!) so I’m going to have to guess something which rolls off the tongue. I’ll guess they were previously the Kansas City Cowboys but I’m 99% sure that’s wrong.’

Jaguars @ Falcons (-7.5)

Of the five wins that the Atlanta Falcons have this season, four of them have come in the last six weeks and they include sweeping the Panthers and beating the Saints and 49ers. The welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who won last week and who have just fired Tom Coughlin after the NFLPA announced that a quarter of all grievances their players had brought against NFL teams were against the Jaguars. I wonder if there will be some relief for the team now that Coughlin won’t be fining them anymore and this line is just too high for me given how up and down the Falcons had been.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Bengals @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Dan and I have been very aware of this matchup all season, even more so when it became clear that both teams looked to be in with a chance of the first pick. With their one win the Bengals have the inside straight to the number one pick yet somehow this number favours the Bengals even though I don’t think they are the better team and I think Brian Flores has looked the better coach. I’m really not sure about this line so the only thing I can do is back my team and hope for bragging rights.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Ravens @ Browns (+10.5)

This is a big line, but the Cleveland Browns are a mess and the Baltimore Ravens have the most wins in the NFL for a reason. The line worries me a little but having scored over forty points five times this season I think that with the extra rest coming off Thursday night that the Ravens cover this.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

Saints @ Titans (+2.5)

The New Orleans Saints looked really good last week whilst the Tennessee Titans lost against the Texans in the big AFC South matchup. However, the Saints have picked up a few injuries in the last couple of week and for all that he is a Fall of Fame quarterback, Drew Brees is not as good outside of a dome and so despite all that has gone on before – if you’re giving me points at home for a team that has played like the Titans in recent weeks I’m going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Panthers @ Colts (-6.5)

Despite their struggles in recent weeks, I don’t have a problem with the Indianapolis Colts being a favourite in this game and with a rookie quarterback starting for the Carolina Panthers I might even understand this line but it is too rich for my blood when I don’t trust either team at this point in the season.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Giants @ Washington (-2.5)

This is another game that has two teams that I don’t trust. The New York Giants got their third win of the season last week giving Eli Manning an emotional send off in what looks like the last home game of his career. However, it looks like Daniel Jones could come back from his ankle injury this week as the Giants travel to Washington to take on another bad team. There were people who reported that Dwayne Haskins looked better last week, even if Washington did lose the game but I have no strong feeling on this game. As is the case with these things though, I’m seeing this as a much more advantageous line for the Giants with a 3.5 swing from what I’m seeing online against this number so based on that I’m taking the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Steelers @ Jets (+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers may have lost last week but they are the better team and so whilst the New York Jets will want to put in a better performance than the one that saw them lose by twenty-one points to the Ravens last week, I like the Steelers to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Lions @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Detroit Lions have now lost seven games straight and so I can see why the Broncos could be favoured, but they have only five wins themselves and have a cluster of injuries on the offensive line. I really don’t have a strong feel for this game, and my instinct is to not trust the Broncos to cover this line but this is a half point better line that I’m seeing online so the number suggests that the Broncos is the way to go but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. Stay away folks, stay away!

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5)

I don’t like either team particularly at the moment and this is a curious game as the Raiders have lost rookie running back Josh Jacobs for the rest of the season as well as the previous four games, but will likely have more fans in the crowd than the LA Chargers. However, the Chargers have one less win and have been almost the model of inconsistency. I like the Chargers to win but I just don’t trust them to win by six points and so even though this line is good value for the Chargers, I still can’t quite bring myself to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Cowboys @ Eagles (+2.5)

This is a big game in terms of the NFC East, but the Philadelphia Eagles have been overwhelmed by injuries whilst the Dallas Cowboys have been massively inconsistent. The Cowboys would be an easy pick were it not for the injury to Dak Prescott who hasn’t thrown all week as he has picked up a shoulder problem. With the injury I would stay well away from this game if I could, but as I have to pick I’m going go with the better team by DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Arizona Cardinals got their first win in seven games las week, but I am not sure they are going to follow that up with a win in Seattle. However, the Seahawks have not been as dominant at home this season and whilst I expect them to win, this line feels big to me and so whilst I could feel foolish tomorrow, I like the Cardinals to keep this divisional game within ten.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Chiefs @ Bears (+5.5)

Don’t look now, but the Kansas City Chiefs’ defence is now ranked eleventh in the league by DVOA and if you combine that with their offensive fire power then they are a formidable team. The Chicago Bears really need this win, but they are 27.1% worse than the Chiefs and I think they will struggle in this one, even if they are at home as the Chiefs have plenty of experience of playing in the cold.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Packers @ Vikings (-4.5)

This game will go a long way to deciding the NFC North, particularly if the Packers win but it’s a strange one to pick as the Minnesota Vikings are a good home team and the Green Bay Packers have won but look slightly off on offence. In fact, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like Aaron Rodgers at the moment, and I think the Vikings are the favourites but this line concerns me. I may come to regret this, but I’m not sure I can bring myself to back the Vikings to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Fifteen Picks

15 Sunday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 15 Picks

It’s time for a quick run through our week fifteen picks picks, but first there the small matter of our very tight trivia competition.

‘In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?’

I’m really not sure about this one, I think I have a vague feeling that after the first year the Jaguars were surprisingly successful for an expansion team, but this is another of those you have to know questions and I don’t. I’m going to go for three seasons as that’s the number that popped into my head first, but I feel like I have a one in four chance of being right and I’m not happy that I’ve plucked the right number out of the air.

‘This is going to be one of those ‘one way or the other’ questions where it’s either more than you might think, or none. I think I’m going to go high, but I don’t think it will have been all five years, so I’ll guess at 4. Complete guess though!’

Bears @ Packers (-4.5)

The Green Bay Packers may have three more wins and be playing at home but I’m not sure there is this much difference between the two teams and so with Mitch Trubisky playing better I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Patriots @ Bengals (+9.5)

This is a really awkward pick because the New England Patriots are unlikely to lose three games straight, and could well beat the Cincinnati Bengals by ten points or a lot more, plus the number has moved so that this actually offers value to pick the Patriots but the Bengals haven’t lost by more than eight points in four weeks.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have not been healthy all year and whilst Patrick Mahomes will play, he suffered a hand injury last week so whilst I like the Chiefs to win the game, going against a Denver Broncos team who are on a two game win streak I am going to back the division rivals to keep the game within eleven points.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Buccaneers @ Lions (+3.5)

I hate this particular line as we know the Detroit Lions are really struggling, you don’t lose six games in a row if things are going well, but looking at the lines this is an advantageous number to pick the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The issue there is that I have no faith in them given their inconsistencies and so if I do pick them I am beholden to Jameis Winston. If I had the option to, I would run a mile from picking this game, but I don’t so I guess I have to pick the Bucs…

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Texans @ Titans (-2.5)

Both the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans have an 8-5 record so this is the first of a huge pair of games between these two teams that could well decide the fate of the AFC South. The Texans have been up and down this season, as they have been for most of head coach Bill O’Brien’s tenure, whilst the Titans have won four straight and are one of the form teams of the NFL at the moment. I’m going take the team I think have been consistently better.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Dolphins @ Giants (-3.5)

The New York Giants come into this game as slight favourites, which is surprising given that they have lost nine straight games, although they did take the Eagles into overtime last week. However, they are welcoming the Miami Dolphins who only have one more win and are a lot worse by DVOA, but I think if you ask anyone following the league you would rather be in the Dolphins situation than the Giants. The Dolphins are not built for winning this season but Brian Flores looks like the real deal as a coach and so that sways me in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Eagles @ Washington (+5.5)

This is a strange game where thanks to the long-standing problems of the franchise in the nation’s capital, it is likely that there will be more Philadelphia Eagles fans in the crowd than home fans. It does seem that Washington has stabilised under Bill Callahan, but this doesn’t mean that they are a good team. However, neither are the Eagles, who through injury and loss of coaching staff look a pale imitation of the team that won a Super Bowl two seasons ago. This seems a lot of points to be laying on the road for a team who needed overtime to beat the Giants last week, but Washington have picked up some injuries as well as lacking roster talent. The numbers say take the Eagles so that’s what I’m gong to do, but I really don’t want to.

Gee’s Pick:        Eagles
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Seahawks @ Panthers (+5.5)

Teams who fire their coach often get a bounce, but this very much did not happen last week for the Carolina Panthers who clearly held Ron Rivera in high regard. This week they welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who got beat badly by the Rams last week. I’m concerned about this number of points but I think the Seahawks are in a much better place right now and will be looking to make amends for last week’s showing.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Browns @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I don’t want to pick the Cleveland Browns laying points on the road, but I think I am going to have to as the Arizona Cardinals have fallen from a promising 3-3-1 to 3-9-1, although they have faced a lot of good teams. That said, the nearest they cam to covering this line was against the Buccaneers and they failed that so I’m going to hold my nose and back the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:        Browns
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Jaguars @ Raiders (-6.5)

I hate this line, I have no faith at all in either team right now, but whilst this is a lot of points for a team like the Oakland Raiders to be laying, the Jacksonville Jaguars have lost five straight by seventeen or more points and so in the end there’s only one team I can bring myself to pick.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Vikings @ Chargers (+2.5)

The LA Chargers are the eighteenth ranked team by DVOA and the Minnesota Vikings are the seventh ranked team. The LA Chargers have very little home field advantage and Philip Rivers has not been playing well. The Vikings may have lost four games, and should still install more confidence but something about Kirk Cousins makes you worry but with the Vikings only need to win by a field goal I’m going to go with who I think is the better team.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Falcons @ 49ers (-10.5)

I hate this line as the San Francisco 49ers have proved themselves to be one of the best teams in the NFL and are coming off an amazing win away at the Saints. They have also just lost their starting centre for the season and I wonder if this is too many points. The problem is that the Atlanta Falcons are not a good team, but have won three out of their last five games. This is the first non-divisional game they have played since their bye week, which only makes that last period harder to evaluate. I’m not as convinced of the gap between these two teams as I was between the Ravens and Jets and having got away with one enormous points cover I’m not going to tempt fate again, although I can absolutely see the 49ers proving me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Rams @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are not a good football team right now, but they only have to be better than the Eagles to make the playoffs. I’m not sure the Rams are going to make the playoffs despite having a better record, but they seem to have found something in the last few weeks and so with a line as close as this I’m going to back the better coach.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Bills @ Steelers (-2.5)

This could be an ugly game to watch as both teams have strong defences and limited offences, but I respect both coaches and this should be a truly competitive game. I’m seeing this line as getting an extra point and a half and so for that reason alone I’m going to back the Bills but Mike Tomlin has done an excellent job with his team and it would not surprise me at all if the Steelers actually won.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Colts @ Saints (-9.5)

The line I am seeing online has actually come down a little, and so by my process that should mean backing the Indianapolis Colts, but I am really not sure about that. Given the retirement of Andrew Luck the Colts have been impressively competitive thanks to a well-constructed roster but the only game they have won in the last six weeks was against the Jaguars as key injuries are hampering them as well as kicking woes. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints are definitely a good team as their 10-3 record clearly demonstrates, but the points worry me. The Saints scored a lot against the 49ers last week but also gave up a lot and so I don’t know if they can beat this line. I’m going to reluctantly take the points, but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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